Colin is joined by Danny Parkins, host of “Breakfast Ball” on FS1!
They start by breaking down Colin’s theory on why the betting markets favor Trump to win the election when the polls have it statistically tied (3:00)
Then, they pivot to the NFL and why the current crop of rookie quarterbacks; Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix all look like they will be franchise quarterbacks (9:00) and identify the Cowboys fatal flaw that will keep them from winning a Super Bowl for the next 5 yards (20:00)
They move onto the classic debate of NFL vs college football and why both are great…just different (32:30) and they each propose some rule changes they’d like the NFL to make (38:15) They also give their takes on the state of the kicking game in the NFL and whether that part of the game also needs changes (45:00)
Finally, they discuss why the lack of a salary cap is actually GOOD for baseball (52:45) and Danny shares what the biggest “good” surprise has been since moving to NYC (59:45)
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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Speaker 1 (00:54):
All right?
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Danny parkins breakfast Ball and FS one lot to talk about.
So two things about an hour here, Two things that
you're you're engaged in but we haven't talked a lot
about But you're big into gambling and you like politics.
So I got into this discussion of the air death, thought
this was fascinating. I'm not going to predict who's going
(01:16):
to win the election, but I found this fascinating. So
there's something called the poly market, which is a you know,
a gambling market for the election, and it leans heavy right.
So tell me if I'm right on this. I said
to a person yesterday. I said, I'd be very careful
about reading too much into this market, and I want
(01:37):
your I want you to analyze it if you're if
you're my broker, I said, First of all, seventy two
percent of bets in America are placed by men. Men
bet more than women. Big bets is close to eighty
five percent. We've all known a guy who's made a
ten thousand dollar bet. I've never once had my wife say,
my friend Beth just placed twenty five thousand dollars on
(01:59):
the ranger to beat the caps tonight. So men are betters,
men are big betters. So the market is influenced by
that demographic. We know there's a referendum in this election
that we've never seen before in my lifetime. It's men
versus women. I mean, that's literally what the election is
to a large degree. So I told somebody that market
(02:22):
is going to favor the male candidate. Do not trust
trust the Mayorst poll. Try whatever the polls are. There's
a handful. So that was my take is that markets,
when it becomes a man versus woman bet a market
will overwhelmingly favor a man because men bet more than
(02:45):
women and bet large amounts on women. Now, as somebody
that knows much more about betting than I do, does
that make any sense?
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Well, I think it makes some sense. But this is
markets are supposed to be impartial, like the old adage
of like Vegas wants to get fifty percent of action
on each side of the game, and just clear the
vig is not really true, Like Vegas is happy to
take a position on a game yes, and be fine
(03:14):
with eighty percent of the money being on one side
if they have conviction that the public is wrong. Like
there's this notion that like Vegas sets the line. It's
not true sharp gamblers set the line. Vegas will open
at a number, but they'll open at a number at
maybe a lower limit and then see where the bigger gamblers,
(03:34):
the good gamblers come in and place their money, and
then that's where the line gets so sharp. So like
betting into an NFL Sunday on Sunday morning, you're betting
into the sharpest market possible. Like I try to place
NFL bets Sunday night for the next week.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
I'll give you an example. Monday in the herd, I said,
I am taking the Rams minus five. It'll move to
seven before the DeVante trade, I said, offensive coach off
of buy Superior Quarterback. I said, the wise guys, they're
all betting the Rams here. Now the market's at six
and a half. So that's an example of I've always
said the blazing five the biggest weakness. I don't get
(04:13):
to do it on Monday.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Correct. Correct my friends. And on the picks that I'm
on Parkings, picks that I'm making on Friday, and by
the way, twelve seven and one so far, feeling very good,
feel like I'm seeing the board very clearly. But they're
like you, you're not doing totals and you're firing into
Friday markets. They're like they're putting They're putting you in
a very, very tough spot to have a winning season.
(04:35):
But I say all of that to say, like, the
markets are supposed to be impartial, and you can look
at offshore markets of the presidential election, and I've talked
to enough people that know this, Like, if we were
allowed to bet legally on the presidential election, it would
be a bigger gambling event than the super Bowl. It
would be the biggest gambling event that we could possibly have.
(04:58):
So I do think generally speaking, the gambling markets for
this stuff are pretty good. I'll be honest. The biggest
gambling loss of my life is the twenty sixteen election.
I just didn't believe it. I just didn't believe it.
And I kept firing on Hillary Clinton night of the election,
and my buddy like, he like text me, He's like, dude,
(05:19):
you've got to stop. Like the markets have spoken. I
don't care what they're saying on CNN. It's like, I
don't care what the polls are saying. I don't care
what you're rooting. Interest is here. He's like, like, the
markets have spoken. And it was a great lesson that
the markets were ahead of what was being talked about
on TV. And obviously that was an event that basically
(05:40):
none of the polls and none of the pundits saw coming.
So I think your theory holds some water because the
market in America is not as sharp as it should
be with this because you can't take it take it legally.
But this you can get five figures six figures down
on the election offshore, no problem. I know people that have.
(06:00):
So I don't believe that it's like terribly influenced by
a bias of the gambling pool because there is plenty
of money down on it. I think this is a
coin flip election. Yeah, right, same, you know, and the
polls pretty much reflect that. Yeah, the gambling markets absolutely
reflect For the last few months, I haven't seen it
(06:21):
be more than like plus one twenty really in either
direction since it's settled when Kamala entered the race. So
this this is a coin flip election. So you know, I.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Said it today, I think, And I had a music
producer text me today that I know off this comment
I made. He liked this comment. I think two things
you see within five to six games of a new
franchise quarterback clear red flags and excellent traits. So I
always use the example of the voice or of American
(07:01):
has talent or American idol. I don't know much about
music other than I enjoy it. But I can see
within three to four notes, you know, I mean literally
twelve seconds hack and great, figuring out lounge singer to
successful lound singer. Good is hard. Justin Fields could be good,
(07:25):
but good is very hard to decipher because the difference
between good and great is consistency. You've got very few
bad games from Mahomes, whereas Russell Wilson now is at
the point where ooh that's pretty good. Oh that's awful.
Same with Justin Field. So I think good is hard
to decipher. I think awful and great are pretty easy.
(07:45):
You can see a draft pick in the NBA, You're like, yeah,
that's like James Wiseman. I'm watching with the Warriors. Like
second year, I'm like, he's never going to be a
star in this league. It is an ant first year
All Star break, You're like, yeah, that's gonna work. Jason
Jason Tatum, even rookie year Jason Tatum, You're like, yeah,
that's gonna work. He's gonna get better. So I look
(08:06):
at Caleb and Jaden Daniels and to a lesser degree
bo Nicks, and I'm like, yep, those are franchise guys.
Whereas Justin Fields was one step forward, two back. Caleb
just keeps getting better. Clearly takes to Jayden Daniels. He's
Lamar Jackson, but better in the pocket. Is a rookie.
Bo Nicks has a lower ceiling, less of an arm,
reads the field, more mobile than anybody that didn't watch
(08:29):
Oregon Duck Games really realizes he's actually really mobile. Bark's
right back at Sean Payton. Not a follower, total leader, confrontational,
and I feel very now now Bo has the less talent.
He's in a division with Harbon Andy Reid like it's
a tough draw. But my take is Caleb, Jayden Bow,
(08:52):
these are franchise quarterbacks. I have no fear saying, yeah,
this is what it looks like.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
So I want to ask you two quick questions before
I give you my full response to it. One, I
guess this would be a small ripon. Do you think
the NBA. I don't think the NBA comparison is fair
because in the NBA it is so purely a talent sport,
like talent can over overcome situation, like John Moran goes
to Memphis, doesn't matter like the franchise, or Anthony Edwards
(09:21):
minis doesn't matter the franchise like your talent will always
win out. In the NBA. You might not win big
if you don't have a good organization, but you can
be a ten time All Star on a bad franchise
and make an impact in the NBA. In football, I
do think situation coaching, offensive line talent around you. It
is so situational that I find it much easier to
(09:44):
make a snap judgment in basketball than I do in football.
And then I guess the quick question I'd give back
to you is what did you say about RG three?
Because his rookie year was historic? So that's good my injury, sure,
But I feel like we have said a lot of
the things we said about Jaden about RG three.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Okay, so I said during RG three's rookie year, I
said Lux the better quarterback. But RG three is more
fun to watch. And voters are suckers for art artistry.
NBA voters Westbrook, Westbrook, he can't has bad handles and
can't shoot. Derek Rose couldn't shoot, spindily ended up getting
(10:23):
hurt a lot. So I think RG three pleased the eye,
but I didn't think it was nearly as sustainable. I
thought Andrew luck was bigger, stronger. I mean, Jesus, the
kid went to Stanford, he memorized a playbook. According to
Kobe Fleeener, who also went to Stanford in two days,
like it's like, yeah, it's so, I never bought into the.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Crazy but I mean, but RG three was Rookie of
the year, right, I didn't buy it. You so you
didn't buy it, and you buy something Jaden that you
did not buy with RG three.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Oh I think I think ja you know, I said
with RG three, I think he's talented, but he would thin.
I said, Andrew Lucks a better player. So Jaden is
better in the pocket than RG three. I think they're
both equally twitchy. But here's was a real cell for
me on Jayden Daniels. And this almost never happens, almost
(11:18):
as a rule, when you have a rookie quarterback. The
coaching staff says, hey, be patient, this is a process, right. Literally,
Dan Quinn, a defensive coach, was like, I've never seen
anything like this. I mean, they literally En Camp couldn't.
Brian Kelly's like the kid's magic. Brian Kelly runs through
(11:38):
quarterbacks at Notre Dame. I think he had six at
one point in like five years. So part of it
was I watched a lot of his games. Second, the
people I trusted, Cliff Kingsbury, Steve Kim, who hired Hims
a friend. He was like, no calling this kid, Cliff,
can't even like. It's Kyler with more maturity, better in
(11:59):
the pocket. And I like Kyler. So I've had good
sourcing on Jayden and I totally buy it.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Okay, So Jaden, to me is incredibly impressive. I was
not as sold I certainly was not as sourced on
him as you were. It was hard for me, with
how slender he was and how much talent was around
him to say for sure that it would translate. Like
I loved Drake May coming out of college. I had
(12:25):
him Actually of Jaden some of the games I watched,
I was like, this guy's doing more with less, tough
as hell, crazy athlete. Youngest brother comes from a family
of athletes like overachieved his situation, and Jaden Daniels has
blown me away. I think every piece of hype that
he's gotten has been totally totally valid. I do think
(12:47):
there is an element of some of his production is
based on running the football, and that works obviously. Lamar
Jackson's got a couple of MVPs, but it's not the
type of thing that age is particularly well, Like, we
haven't seen that quarterback in their thirties. Like it's a
(13:08):
depreciating asset. At some point, you need to just be
great from the pocket, and he's been great from the pocket.
So I'm not saying he can't be that. But if
his comp is Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams's comp is
Aaron Rodgers, if we did a redraft tomorrow, I would
still take Caleb Williams over Jaden Daniels. Yeah, I think
(13:28):
the skill set is actually more sustainable and allows for
a higher ceiling.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Yeah so I so I would too, Absolutely, yes, But
I don't think that's a majority opinion any Yeah. No,
I think Caleb. I use this word a lot. People
think it's weird. Caleb's thicker and trunk here. He's a big,
thick athlete. If you're standing around him, you're like ass legs, shoulders,
like he's like he's just big. Jaden is more spindily
(13:56):
than always worries me. But saying I would take Caleb
over Jaden is like saying I would take vanilla ice
cream over chocolate or whatever. Like I like him both,
and I don't care.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I don't care, And I was It's possible people at
the beginning, people wanted to make this because Caleb had
a bad couple of games and Shane Waldron had an
awful adjustment to Chicago. People were immediately running too. It's
like people have the memory of one day, one minute,
like it has to be c J. Stroud, Bryce Young.
I mean, are you guys crazy it Like that is
(14:29):
so stupid, Like it's very possible that this draft ends
up being by the way, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberg or
Philip Rivers. How about this, all three awesome quarterbacks, all
three franchises and fan bases are thrilled with their.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Guy, Danny. You don't have to go back that far.
Herbert Burrow hurt Tua, right, It was just like four
or five years ago we had an incredible draft.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, and so I think that that is certainly what
is in play here, because bo Nix and Jaden have
far exceeded with my expectations were for them coming into
the draft, and I'll be honest, it was one game
I thought Drake May was gonna get killed last Sunday. Yeah,
with six offensive line combinations in six games, no offensive
(15:13):
weapons to speak of, defensive head coach, they were sitting
in for a reason. Then it felt like going up
against Houston's pass rush, which led I mean the Patriots
led the league in pressures allowed and the Texans led
the league in pressure percentage generated. I was like, this
is a terrible matchup. Why are they doing this? And
he acquitted himself beautifully. I thought in the game one
(15:34):
of the stories of the season to me is how
these quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are playing so well. But also,
if you just look at completion percentage in the NFL
right now, fifteenth in the NFL, fifteenth is Will Levis,
who's completing sixty six percent of his passage.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
It's not that long.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Ago that that was top three in the NFL or
even something that would lead the league. So I think
what has happened And this is a much better podcast
topic than TV show topic. I think that analytics and
the smart people in football have figured out that conservative
(16:19):
passing is so valuable. Is that an extension of the
run game, and young quarterbacks can do it, and young
quarterbacks are cheap quarterbacks, and we know that's where the
market inefficiency is. So it's never been easier to be
successful as a young quarterback because the passing game is
(16:43):
now more left and right than vertical. And in baseball
and basketball, the analytics revolution has rewarded the high variance plays.
Go for a home run, shoot a three points. So
analytics in those sports has actually injected like the more
(17:04):
difficult skill set, whereas analytics and football don't take risks,
don't throw the ball down the field, don't force it,
just matriculate. We'll go forward on fourth down three yards,
four yards, five yards is fine, and just get the
ball out quick, don't take hits, execute the easy pass.
And so you're seeing, I mean, Jaden Daniels is completing
(17:27):
seventy five percent in his passes. Yeah, that that is
he deserves credit and he does have some big plays
to him, so he's not just binking and dunking. But
that number makes no sense. It seven years ago we
would have been like, that's not gonna happen. And so
I just I think that coaches have gotten so much
(17:49):
smarter at cultivating an offense where young guys can have
a high floor early. Then it makes it more difficult
for me to evaluate their ceiling because I think the
floor has been raised so significantly.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, this is what I have said about the Cowboys
and the Lakers, very insular franchises with a lot of
buses and friends of buses in the Lakers and a
lot of Joneses and friends of Jones' inside the Cowboys.
Is that as the league's gotten sharper, shrewder and more analytical,
the Lakers and the Cowboys have gotten more of the
corner grocery store in a supermarket world. Is that football's
(18:24):
gotten so smart? And you look at the Cowboys right now,
and they're over paying for a quarterback that's a B
plus quarterback Like that is the number one mistake in
the league. Pay for Mahomes or a rookie quarterback. Those
are the only two. You can have Garoppolo and Goff
early in their career and get to a super Bowl.
(18:45):
You can have Garoppolo and get to a super Bowl
before you pay them big.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
You will get if you get McVeigh, if you get Shanahan, Yes,
you get if you get one of those guys. And
obviously those guys don't count against your salary cap, so
do anything you can to hire one of those guys.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
So people, it's remarkable to me that the Cowboys and
the market struggles with this. I think Dallas fans have
finally figured it out. The Athletic did a poll and
like seventy five percent of Cowboy fans are like, we
have no chance to win the super Bowl for five years.
So they get it. Cowboy fans get it. But these
people that think it's an anti deck conversation, No, it's
an anti bank paying a B plus quarterback a plus money.
(19:23):
It is so odd. It's like the most obvious analytics
some we can argue about in baseball. Some are clear
that the ground ball is a death penalty, a strikeout's not.
That's pretty obvious if you don't follow too much analytics
in football, just don't pay a good quarterback great money
if you don't know anything else. That's clear. And the
Cowboy's a billion.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
It's funny. It's I get why teams do it even
saying that, because in Dallas's situation, let's say they decided
not to pay Dak and just let him leave for nothing.
That's also bad team building. Like he finished second in
the league in MVP last year. He's won twelve games
(20:05):
three years in a row. They led the league in
scoring last year. I hate when teams just let stars
walk for nothing. You have to get something for your asset,
even if it's sixty cents on the dollar. You have
to get something. And so Dallas was going to be
too good to draft Drake may or to draft Bo Knicks,
(20:25):
or to draft Jada Daniels, and so then they would
be more they maybe they wouldn't be paying big money
to go get a good quarterback, but they would be
trading multiple first round picks to move up and get
a good quarterback. And do you trust that Jerry Jones
is going to hire the right coach to develop the
young quarterback? Because yeah, if you could say, I'd rather
(20:46):
have Jaden Daniels at his money than Dak Prescott at
his like of course, obviously, but Atlanta was like, we
can't have another year of Desmond Ritter, Like we will
give Kirk Cousins one hundred and eighty million dollars at
thirty five coming off of an achilles and draft Michael
Pennix so that we never have to go through a
(21:08):
season like that again, Like there aren't thirty two good
quarterbacks in the world that can do this job, and
there's thirty two teams. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
I also think something I touched on last week is
quarterbacks come in more ready to play, but owners are
more ready to fire them. So you've got this convergence
of yeah, wealthier, wealthier owners, more impulsive, quarterbacks, more talented,
we're not giving you two full years. I mean the
(21:37):
fact that Daniel Jones got an extension and was basically
a C minus quarterback, it's just that doesn't that doesn't
happen anymore.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
You know that that that was a terrible one. That
that that one made made no sense. And the thing
about these rookies, like I I kept saying when I
was still doing radio in Chicago, I was like, we
need to hold Caleb Williams to a really high standard. Yeah,
And people were like, why do you keep saying CJ.
Stroud that's an outlier? No, it wasn't. The outlier for
(22:09):
Stroud was that he didn't throw interceptions. He only had
five interceptions, but Dak had four. Like we have as
a rookie. We have seen it before the guy had
twenty three touchdowns. He had a little over four thousand yards.
It was a very, very, very impressive season because no
one saw it coming. Houston was terrible. He turned him around.
(22:30):
He won a playoff game, but I mean he beat
the Browns. He beat Joe Flacco in a playoff game,
like and again this is not to knock ce J Stroud,
but my point is it is easy easier to be
good as a rookie because back in the day, you'd
be playing in like the Big twelve in a spread offense,
(22:50):
and they'd be like, come into the NFL and be
under center and take seven step drops and throw post routes.
And now they're like, everything's out of the shotgun. You
could have a risk band. We're going to call the
play in on a number, and we're going to give
you a run pass option, just like you had in college.
(23:11):
So it's just so much easier to be good early
that I hope that we get smarter when Shador Sanders
or whoever comes into the NFL next year, and then
everyone's like pump the brakes on expectations. No man, like
build your organization from coaches, from investment in the offensive
(23:32):
line wide receivers. Build your organization to take advantage of
the first four years of these guys when they're crazy cheap,
because that's the easiest time it should ever be for
you to win a Super Bowl if you have a
great quarterback. And I do think that Washington and Chicago,
at least, I'll say it on those guys. You're farther
ahead on bow next than I am. But those teams
(23:53):
should be making hyper aggressive moves the next three years
to win a Super Bowl, because that's what you can
do if you've got a quarterback who is that good?
Is that cheap?
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(25:17):
certain things that the media does. They don't irritate me,
but they're so predictable. One of them is early in
the season when there are injuries. People are like, I
don't think I've ever seen this many NFL injuries. Yes,
you have twelve months earlier, and in the end, almost
(25:40):
without exception, you get to a Super Bowl and each
team is missing like one starter, and teams are overwhelmingly healthy.
Players get healthier. Players are they hit less in practice,
they hit less in games. Doctors are better, fitness, fitness
is better. They're fine. So here's the other one that
just cracks me up. After a great weekend in college football, man,
(26:05):
college football is so much better than the NFL. No,
they're both great, and they're different. The NFL is a
higher level of coaching and playing. You get guaranteed, like
five to seven great games a weekend, even though there's
only thirty two teams. In college football, you have one
hundred and thirty teams, and you may get four great
(26:26):
games and a great weekend. I mean, like last weekend
was great, and we all knew it was great. But
you'll have weekends going into a college football weekend where
like there's like one game between ranked teams and you
can get a nice Kansas State TCU game, But I
went out with my wife, I'm not watching it. So
here's how I look at the NFL in college The
(26:48):
NFL is a successful brother in the family. He always
has a nice car, he's got a nice fund with
his broker. A little boring at times and predictable, but
you kind of know what you get. College football is
the brother and the family that twice a year you
have a big part of You invite him over and
(27:09):
he'll take all his clothes off, go naked, jump into
a pool, kind of drunk. People laugh, but it's kind
of inappropriate. You're not happy with him, but you do
wake up the next morning and say, you know, he
really gets the most out of life. We have a
nicer our kids go to better schools, we have a
nicer life. But you know, Tim, he really has a
good time in life. And that's how I feel. College
(27:31):
football is at its best. It's wild, fans are pouring
on the field. The officiating can be abjectly horrid.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
These are twenty words soccer players who may or may
not know what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Special teams are a s show.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yeah, but like.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Tim who got naked and jumped to into a pool,
there is something memorable and ecstatic about it. And I
thought Oregon Oregon Ohio State was that it's like Jesus.
But my point being, if I circle back, is they're
both great. They're much more unique. One's corporate, one's on
(28:13):
a campus, and I think that's the beauty of them.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
Well, it's funny, though, I mean, some of your finest work, Colin,
what are your finest analogies. We gotta work on Tim's name.
I feel like Tim's name should be like like Madison
or like Bucky or you've seen like like a college Yeah, exactly,
so we get we gotta work on Tim's name, but
otherwise nine point eight out of ten on the Colin
(28:37):
Analogy scale. And I was just judging myself because I
like the NFL so much more than college. And I'm like, yeah,
I'm the boring, corporate, suburban guy with like the healthy stockportfolio.
Yeah I know, dude, I'm washed up, Like I got
a wife and two kids and I just love like
a sushi dinner and a bottle of red and a
nice early bedtime. But but yeah, it is. It's it's
(29:00):
true college at its best. It's just you're like, this
is crazy. I don't understand what's happening here. This is random.
A team that's a thirty point underdog can win a game,
like you know, the NFL. It's like, oh, the biggest
spread on the board is six and a half, right,
Like it's parody by design. There's a salary cap, there's
a salary floor. Free Agents are just as likely to
(29:23):
choose Dallas as they are Buffalo in Green Bay because
they just follow the money. Like it's I think the
NFL is the perfect viewing product. I think it's perfect.
Every game matters. Every team before the season doesn't think
they can win a Super Bowl. But like worst a
first tap in every single year, rookie quarterbacks can change
(29:43):
a franchise on a dime. Like basically every franchise has
some reason to believe at least within three years, right,
Like Jacksonville three years ago absolutely thought that it was
on the board that they had a future Hall of
Fame quarterback. So I think the NFL is a perfect
viewing product, and college is just a little tougher for
(30:03):
me to like follow and be fully invested in week
in and week out. But college at its best is
just awesome. And it's because it means like an irrational
amount to the people in the building. Not that pro
fans don't fight, and pro fans aren't passionate, they obviously are,
(30:26):
but it's just like the tribalism of like this is
the most important thing in the entire state of Alabama. Right,
I'm a fifth generation Badger, Like there's just something about
like the college football pageantry that I'll never be able
to quit. What did you think about what Dan Lanning did?
(30:46):
Should that penalty putting twelve men on the field intentionally
at the end of the game be more than five yards?
That probably it feels like a cheat code to.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Me, yeah, a little bit. But my account's job is
to find holes in the tax system, and we're going
to find them every year. I make it very clear
to my accountant, my entertainment attorney, we do not cheat,
but our job is to assist me in paying the
(31:17):
least amount of taxes I can. In California, that's legal,
and I think that's really that's what an accountant's job is,
to find holes and crevices. Yeah, no, so yes, I
think I look at it like this. There are two rules.
(31:38):
There's a certain rule that college has better than pro
pass interference. No penalty should be sixty four yards. It's
stupid if our feet are tangled and it's a I
mean that would literally be like imprisonment for jaywalking. Your
feet get tangled, it's a sixty four yard penalty. It
shouldn't be. So college has that better overt But conversely,
(32:02):
neither side can figure out overtime, and both sports have
made multiple changes. My theory has always been the road
team gets the ball first, because it's harder to play
on the road. You get it first, first, score wins.
Nobody likes that I wrote about it in my first book.
So the way I look at this is. It is
a smart coach and a smart staff manipulating the rules.
(32:23):
It's not up to Oregon to play nice. It's up
to the NCAA to get their shit together.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
I completely agree with you. I'm not mad at Dan Lanning.
But when your accountant finds a loophole, that then the
government finds, oh my god, we're losing a bunch of
money on this because there's a loophole, I expect them
to close the loophole. Yeah, and so just like it
should clearly be a pre snap penalty, like they should.
(32:51):
They should not let the time run off the clock, like, hey,
there's twelve guys out here. Ball is snapped, like blow
the play dead. It's on the defense. So or put
the time and back on the clock right, like so
instead of it going from ten seconds to five seconds,
it just hey, we got to put this pack. We
know what you're doing. We got to put it back
to ten seconds. Like make the rule like less than
(33:11):
three minutes left in a game or something. If you
do twelve minut on the field on defense, no time
can come off the clock. Like it's a pretty easy fix.
Or make it a twenty fifteen yard penalty. It's an
easy fix, but I was just like, God, damn it.
By the way, that's that's smart. But you should be
penalized more because we did catch you.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
But can we both agree? The worst rule in sports
is the nfls you fumble into the end zone and
the other team gets the ball.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Yes, I hate that. I hate that rule, but I
do think there should be a compromise. It shouldn't be
that the other team gets the ball. I like the
reverse touchback. Okay, so the first touchback. I mean it
doesn't exist anywhere, so I understand why you'd be confused.
I'm running into the end zone, I'm diving for the
pilot on I fumble. If the ball goes out of bounds,
(34:05):
I don't think I should get the ball back just
because the other team didn't recover back at the one
yard line. I do think there should be some penalties
for like or like added emphasis on ball security by
the end zone. If you fumble and they don't recover
and it goes out the end zone, you get the
ball back. You don't lose possession, but you've got to
go back to the twenty yard balls.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
Yes, totally agree, totally agree.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
I call it a reverse touchback. I don't know if
there's a better way to call it that. Yeah, like
it was second if it was second in goal from
the four and you go out of bounce at the
one and the ball or the ball and the ball
goes out the end zone. Now it's third and goal
from the twenty, Like you know what I mean? Like
you got you should have. You should have a severe
penalty for fumbling the ball by the end zone. So
(34:44):
it should not be a change of possession unless the
defense actually recovers the ball. Defense needs to recover the
ball in order for the defense to get the ball.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
That's rightly. I don't think you should get a possession
without recovery.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I got another one for you. We're talking rule we're
talking rules changes. I did this on the TV show,
but they're like, you're talking kicking. You can do it
in one minute. So I had to literally do this
in one minute. So I'm bringing this to your podcast.
I'm seeing too many field goal kickers this year. I
had the dat after five weeks. I'm going to assume
that it's the same after six, So just roll with me.
(35:18):
After five weeks, we had seen more fifty yard field
goal attempts than any time in league history. And I
had our research or chart it. It is a straight
line going up. It's like in Nvidia stock like, it
is just a straight And it went from seventy six
(35:40):
fifty yard plus field goal attempts through five weeks last
year to ninety seven this year. So it is exponential growth.
And my theory is you get five yards extra on
these touchbacks because the new kickoff rule, and kickers have
gotten really damn good, like Brandon Aubrey is ridiculous, is amazing.
(36:01):
But I don't want to watch kickoff touchback two or
three first downs field goal. I think that that makes
you less likely to go forward on fourth down. And
field goal attempts are not interesting. They're interesting at the
end of the game when something serious is like a
(36:22):
game winning field goal is a suspenseful play. A forty
four yard field goal is not interesting because I let
not only are field goal attempts up, the make percentage
is up. Seventy six percent of field goals fifty yards
or more are makes now, So to me, the kickers
have gotten too good. It's too big of a part
(36:44):
of the game. Narrow your uprights. Jason Kelsey said on
his podcast too, I agree with it. Field goals, the
uprights are eighteen yards wide. In the Arena League it
was nine yards wide. Let's narrow the goalposts to bring
down these numbers. I don't want to see six field
goal attempts a game. It's four, okay.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
So people years ago, thirty forty years ago suggested because
Kareem in the seventies, Wilt dunking was so easy, we
should raise we should raise the rims to eleven. And
my take is there are changes in all sports, but
(37:25):
not everything has to be hard. In golf, long putts
are hard. Driving the fairway for a pro isn't really hard.
That Yes, pats are easier and kicks are easier, but
that's okay because when you miss one, it's shocking. So
(37:46):
you do get the drama when they do miss one
out of four. That is, sports aren't just about making
things difficult. Great for Michael Jordan in a zone, the
mid range sixteen footer was just money. Even in the playoffs,
he was like sixty percent, And that's okay. People pay
to see athletes succeed, not fail. So I like my kick.
(38:09):
I mean, these guys get death threats on college campuses.
I liked my kickers making most of their kicks because
if kicking, if kicking was harder and they missed more
of their kicks, it'd be more bad quarterbacks going forward
on fourth down, more good teams getting the ball in
prime field position, and the and margins would grow.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Yeah, okay, I mean reasonable counterpoint. I personally would rather
watch a fourth down attempt than a field goal attempt,
like i'd rather see Dak Have you ever.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Watched Zach Wilson play?
Speaker 1 (38:48):
No, we were just talking about how it's gotten easier
to play quarterback. But I'd rather watch Dak Prescott throw
the ball to Ceedee Lamb than Brandon Aubrey kick a
field goal. Your point on everything in sports doesn't have
to be difficult and maximum difficulty is true, But I mean,
I don't know, man, there is something to the US
(39:10):
Open being the most fun golf tournament to watch. Yeah,
watching the pros struggle. You go to an NBA game
like they're too good at shooting. I'm sorry. I love
the NBA. I love it so much. Like I'm going
to follow Lonzo Ball's preseason debut tonight for the Bulls
to see how his knee holds up. Like, I love
(39:31):
the NBA, but they're too damn good at shooting. So
I'm interested in figuring out a way to make it
so that the the six ' ten power forward who
gets fourteen rebounds a game is also not a thirty
eight percent three point shooter, because then the math says
that he should shoot threes over go bang down by
the rim. So I do look for ways to make
(39:52):
it a little bit more difficult on some of these
guys because they have gotten so good. They're so good
at these games.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
It's interesting I was watching. I think I've told you
this before. Is when I built my show and my business,
I've always built them on a basic premise. I'll talk
about things that are urgent and stars. So you have
to have one of those two things. College football, Pro football,
scarcity of games, urgency, NBA stars, UFC have e Connor
(40:31):
McGregor fights Tiger and his prime stars only one masters
a year. I think it's always been the downside to
baseball where they don't promote their stars and they's zero scarcity.
But I will say where I think the Dodgers are
really smart, They basically just I think it's really brilliant
and it doesn't get as much play now a lot
(40:51):
of their stars are hurt. I mean, even though Tahani
can't pitch. Now, they have an entire pitching staff, a
strong top five starting pitching staff on the shelf. The
fact that they're in the NLCS with like five great
pitchers unavailable is remarkable. But basically what they did they said,
in a changing landscape where baseball is hurting in attendance,
(41:14):
we're going to buy an all star team and we're
going to push most of the big salaries down the road.
And baseball is like, wait a minute, your payrolls. Fifth,
you spend a billion dollars in the off season. Second
was the San Francisco Giants at three hundred and thirty
million dollars. And I do think there is something to
be said in sports socialism works, salary caps or socialism
(41:40):
baseball basically just go spend a billion dollars and then
you can make it work by pushing down the salaries
and what so the idea is socialism works. But I
would argue a Yankees Dodgers World Series is validating my belief,
which is big brands win. Baseball never wins. If the
(42:03):
Guardians are in the World Series, or the Tampa Bay
Rays of the Orioles, and so in the end, because
of the slow pace of baseball in a frenetic, caffeinated world,
that allowing the big markets to just have all star teams.
It's not socialism, it's total capitalism. It's not fair, it's
(42:25):
not remotely even. And it's the only way for baseball
to grow.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Yeah, it's me listen, maybe gross. It's gross, and it's gross.
And the our boss's boss, right, like at the top
of the they're thrilled, like get the Yankees in there,
and Dodgers are Mets. They'll be fine with either, right,
It's much better business than Rangers dbacs. I do think that, See,
(43:01):
I don't agree that baseball doesn't market it stars. I
think that people just don't care like out out like
they market them. They have commercials, they have endorsement deals.
It's just that if I watch the Cubs, and I
care about the Cubs, there is not enough time for
me to watch the Dodgers. It's impossible. There's one hundred
and sixty two games like and I will always be
in more interested in Cubs, Cubs, Reds than Yankees. Dodgers.
(43:26):
It doesn't matter to me about Otani and Aaron Judge
because I care about the Cubs and like, so baseball
makes a Baseball makes one hundred dollars with fives and singles.
The NFL makes one hundred dollars with one hundred dollars
bill and with gold bricks. Like it's just a different way.
They're both good businesses, they're both growth businesses. So the
players in baseball will never accept the salary cap. It's
(43:48):
just like their bedrock principle. But I'm telling you man,
baseball's economic model. We've talked about this with the with
the regional sports networks, Like they make their money not
from the NASH TV deals. Obviously they make some, they
make time, but they make their money from two things,
really attendance because there's so much inventory, and local media rights.
(44:12):
Because again there's so much inventory. The Marquee Sports network
that airs Cubs games, they get one hundred and fifty
Cubs games a year. That's a lot of television. That's
a lot of commercials, that's a lot of advertisements to sell.
So the RSN model is collapsing.
Speaker 2 (44:32):
Hurting the small market teams much more correct well.
Speaker 1 (44:36):
Correct but like that is going to create a situation
where players are going to come up for free agency
and it's like, Okay, the Dodgers, they can't afford them,
but do they need them? But do they if they
already have freemen and bats and otan, Like, they're not
(44:58):
gonna just there's gonna be gone, Like this offseason, Aaron
Orwan Sota will get paid, Corbyn Burns will get paid,
and I don't think there will be another nine figure
free agent this offseason. Like the have and have nots
is going to grow so much and so many teams
(45:20):
are going to be making relatively nothing from their local
TV deals. And then that also will hurt attendance because
you're not gonna be able to feel an exciting competitive team.
You'll be eliminated by May. By the time kids are
out of school and you want to go to games,
the team is going to be fifteen games out of
first that you don't have to have socialism, but I'm
(45:43):
not sure you can have completely unchecked capitalism either. Like
it will make it will make TV executives happy at
the end to have the Yankees and the Dodgers in it,
But the health of baseball is June, July August Companion
Sport barbecues Fourth of July, trying to pack stadiums for
(46:06):
eighty one home games a year in thirty different cities.
Why would you go to a game in Pittsburgh in
June if you have no shot? Or I mean, Milwaukee
does a nice job as an organization. Tannas will run
do a nice job. But it's just I don't know.
I think that the economic model of baseball is at
(46:28):
a real teetering point that either the players are gonna
have to break and accept a salary floor and a
salary cap, or there's going to be need to be
more drastic like revenue sharing, like the Dodgers should will
not be able to keep all of their local TV
rights because I think some of these teams are just
never going to be able to compete again on the
money side.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
Yeah, I don't think you're necessarily wrong. So last time
we talked, we talked about your sort of indoctrination into
New York and New York's post Yeah so, and the
city itself. I tend to prefer I'm a London, Chicago
guy more than a New York guy or a Boston guy.
(47:12):
Nothing against him. I like the people of New York.
I like the food and the people. I don't like
the smell and the congestion, but whatever. I don't like
Rome as much as people do. I don't like New
York as much as people do. I love London. In Chicago,
I think it's easier to get around town. Is there
something in New York for our audience that's surprisingly good?
(47:36):
Something about New York that you said to yourself, Wow,
it's even better than the city I grew up that
I love Chicago.
Speaker 1 (47:44):
It's tough for me to give better. Well, I will,
I'll say, I mean, I'll say this Central Park is
not overrated. Central Park is amazing, Yes, but it is.
It is amazing how big it is and how peaceful
it is because everything If you find green space in
(48:08):
this concrete jungle, you're like off to a flame. You're like,
oh my god, green space. But a lot of the
like little small parks, they're so busy, and so it's
like can I like you stand up from your chair
and like someone's like, oh you're are you getting up?
And like they're coming in to like immediately fill your chair.
(48:29):
Like it's it's tough to find a quiet moment doors
in this city. But then you go to the most
famous one, Central Park, and there could be thousands and
thousands of people, and there's rickshaws and people drawing caricatures
of people, and you know, hustle and bustle and Nathan's
hot dog stands and like there's commerce and everything. You
(48:53):
can find a patch of green, sit down and have
a cocktail or listen to a podcast and fall asleep
in the grass yep, and not be bothered, like it
is an amazing Like I Chicago has a beautiful lakefront
and Millennium Park is great, but it's it's not as
(49:15):
like private like it's it's like you can go into
places in Central Park and not see buildings.
Speaker 2 (49:24):
Yeah that's insane.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
So you just like because then as soon as you
step a second outside of it, you're like, oh, right,
I'm in New York, so I think that everyone knows
about it. So like, oh, Central Park is great, Like
sweet Danny, thanks for the breaking news. It really is great.
And then I just want to shout this out your podcast.
We talked about stand up comedy last time, and two
(49:49):
different comedians reached out to me on Instagram after hearing
about it and one of them is Jared Freed, who's
an awesome comedian New York regular, And I was going
back and forth on Instagram and he was like, Yeah,
if you want to ever come to the Cellar, let
me know. And I went to the Cellar last night,
just table for one at the Comedy Seller and asked
(50:10):
a producer on the show for a recommendation for a
spot by there. She gave our social media lady Gianna
gave me a great spot. Had steak. Freetz went to
the Cellar by myself fourteen dollars cover, no big like
cheap entertainment. Louis c k dropped in Jesus, the guy
sells out arenas he place goes. So there's there's a
(50:31):
there's a Tuesday, you know what I mean. It was
just there's something too Anything can happen here at any time.
Speaker 2 (50:40):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (50:41):
That is such a cliche about New York. But it's
just true, man, it's just true.
Speaker 2 (50:47):
Well I can remember it very well. Buddy of mine,
I was at ESPN. A buddy of mine, Brian from Portland,
was in New York and he said, Hey, you want
to go to a comedy club tonight? And I went
to I think Carolines. I think it was Caroline's, and
so I said, yeah, I'll meet you Carolines. And we
went and I think we had a steak dinner. Could
(51:08):
have been Del Frisco if I recall, I went to Carolines.
And one of my favorite I've been saying this for
twenty years, one of my favorite people in the world
is Colin Quinn. I think he's so funny.
Speaker 1 (51:20):
I saw him do an Hour at the Cellar three
weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (51:23):
It was amazing, and he was working on an act
and in fact, his cousin, who wasn't nearly as funny,
opened cool, that's funny. And then Colin went an hour
and he was wearing like sweatpants and a pizza stained
shirt and he went up there and I remember telling
my buddy, and this was like twenty years ago. I'm like,
(51:45):
that's the funniest guy in the country that hasn't become
Now he's become a megastar now doing stuff on Broadway,
but at the time he was doing shows and I
we walked out of there and I'm like, that's a
like usually a guy gets funny really quick, like John
mulaney within a year and a half, You're like, Wow, star,
And I remember thinking Colin Quinn is literally brilliant and
(52:06):
funny and so likable and relatable, and it just pleases
me that he's had all of his success. I mean
his Twitter account. He's literally set on Twitter. If you
watch it, it's all sarcasm. He plays. He literally plays
a character. Hey, gang, have you heard about the super
Bowl today? I'm having a private party. Like his whole
(52:30):
persona on Twitter. I think is outrageously funny. And I'm
so that's just a classic New York straight. I just
walk into Carolines with a buddy and we sat there
for an hour in our stomach's hurt.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
It was. It was amazing because so there was I'm
sat at a table for five, and I'm a solo
and i love going and doing things by myself, so
I've have no problem. But it's four, you know, people
in their fifties who have never been to the Comedy
Cellar before. But they were like pretty decent comedy fans.
Like they were like thrown out names that it wasn't
just Dave Chappelle and Chris Rock, Like they knew who
(53:00):
Sam Morrel was, they knew who David Tell were like
they were they at least had like some knowledge of comedy.
And I was telling him about the seller and I
was like, listen, you're not going to know every name here,
but like, like I looked at the lineup ahead of time,
like Greer Barnes, no one knows who Greer Barnes Isn't
I don't mean to say that disrespectfully, but he's not
like a huge tour in comic but he's a killer.
(53:23):
He's so funny. He is just like a New York
pro and he murders the room. Like everyone who gets
up at the cellar that's a paid regular. They're like
they are absolute killers. They kill in New York. They
can tour. Uh maybe they're an opening act, maybe they're
a middle act, but like they absolutely can make money
(53:45):
on the road. They'll work on like The Tonight Show
or Seth Meyers or Colebert. Like it's just such a
cool scene that that's just as a thing you can't
get in Chicago because all those comedians come to Chicago,
but they come on their tour, So I can't see
Louis c k drop in on a Tuesday in Chicago.
(54:05):
It just it's just not something that can happen two
places la New York, only two places where that can
happen in that scene. And so I just I mean,
Stevie Wonder did like a pop up show at Madison
Square Garden last week. It was like an unannounced show
at Madison Square Garden. I didn't go. I didn't know
about it. I'm not cool enough to know about it.
But I was like, wait, what like an unadvertised show
(54:29):
from Stevie Wonder at the garden? Like how does and
it doesn't even go? How did she sell tickets? Who
knew about it? So I don't. I'm still trying to
figure out my way into the New York scene. But
it's it's a pretty amazing place. I'll never say it's
better than Chicago because cost of living, my home, my
people Midwest like it's I'm just I'll never be able
(54:51):
to get over that bias. But it's a pretty amazing place.
It really is.
Speaker 2 (54:55):
Yeah, I it's you know, the late Larry King used
to have a line about how New Yorkers are smart,
they're savvy. He used to have a line, but he
said a homeless guy in New York could own a
grocery chain in Iowa.
Speaker 1 (55:09):
I mean, that's also the thing about New Yorkers, where
there's this arrogance of like I went to Yankees Royals
the Division series with Nick and his family. There was
a shocking number of people who were wearing jackets on
the back there's like a Yankees emblem on the chest
and the slogan on the back was like New York
(55:30):
or nowhere, Like there really are like like like one
out of fifteen people, like we're wearing this jacket that
is like it's so small. Like they absolutely believe that
if you're like, no, Chicago's about as good as New York,
Like when you factor everything, they're like, no, that's ridiculous,
Like like they absolutely think like Paris, London, Chicago, you know,
(55:56):
Florence kind of Florrence. Get the hell out of here
with your Florence Italy. Like like there's like a smugness
to the New York superiority that I actually respect because
they're just so convinced that there's nowhere else in the
world that even comes close to comparing.
Speaker 2 (56:13):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I know some New Yorkers who
have never been west of the Hudson, and that's okay.
Speaker 1 (56:18):
Exactly they and you would say, like, maybe you should
check it out. The Grand Canyon's beautiful, and they're like, hey,
we got holds in our concrete here. What do I
need to see that hole for? Like, it's just crazy,
but it's I do. I do respect it like it's
at They're like, oh the subway, yeah, it smells like
urine and there's rats and you'll see a naked person
(56:38):
on it every three trips. But how else would you
prefer to get around? I'm like, I don't know any
other way, but it's New York.
Speaker 2 (56:49):
Danny Parkins, as always, Buddy, great stuff.
Speaker 1 (56:52):
Loved it anytime, Buddy, let's do it the volume.
Speaker 2 (56:58):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment, rate and review
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
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All right?
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Danny parkins breakfast Ball and FS one lot to talk about.
So two things about an hour here, Two things that
you're you're engaged in but we haven't talked a lot
about But you're big into gambling and you like politics.
So I got into this discussion of the air death, thought
this was fascinating. I'm not going to predict who's going
(01:16):
to win the election, but I found this fascinating. So
there's something called the poly market, which is a you know,
a gambling market for the election, and it leans heavy right.
So tell me if I'm right on this. I said
to a person yesterday. I said, I'd be very careful
about reading too much into this market, and I want
(01:37):
your I want you to analyze it if you're if
you're my broker, I said, First of all, seventy two
percent of bets in America are placed by men. Men
bet more than women. Big bets is close to eighty
five percent. We've all known a guy who's made a
ten thousand dollar bet. I've never once had my wife say,
my friend Beth just placed twenty five thousand dollars on
(01:59):
the ranger to beat the caps tonight. So men are betters,
men are big betters. So the market is influenced by
that demographic. We know there's a referendum in this election
that we've never seen before in my lifetime. It's men
versus women. I mean, that's literally what the election is
to a large degree. So I told somebody that market
(02:22):
is going to favor the male candidate. Do not trust
trust the Mayorst poll. Try whatever the polls are. There's
a handful. So that was my take is that markets,
when it becomes a man versus woman bet a market
will overwhelmingly favor a man because men bet more than
(02:45):
women and bet large amounts on women. Now, as somebody
that knows much more about betting than I do, does
that make any sense?
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Well, I think it makes some sense. But this is
markets are supposed to be impartial, like the old adage
of like Vegas wants to get fifty percent of action
on each side of the game, and just clear the
vig is not really true, Like Vegas is happy to
take a position on a game yes, and be fine
(03:14):
with eighty percent of the money being on one side
if they have conviction that the public is wrong. Like
there's this notion that like Vegas sets the line. It's
not true sharp gamblers set the line. Vegas will open
at a number, but they'll open at a number at
maybe a lower limit and then see where the bigger gamblers,
(03:34):
the good gamblers come in and place their money, and
then that's where the line gets so sharp. So like
betting into an NFL Sunday on Sunday morning, you're betting
into the sharpest market possible. Like I try to place
NFL bets Sunday night for the next week.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
I'll give you an example. Monday in the herd, I said,
I am taking the Rams minus five. It'll move to
seven before the DeVante trade, I said, offensive coach off
of buy Superior Quarterback. I said, the wise guys, they're
all betting the Rams here. Now the market's at six
and a half. So that's an example of I've always
said the blazing five the biggest weakness. I don't get
(04:13):
to do it on Monday.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Correct. Correct my friends. And on the picks that I'm
on Parkings, picks that I'm making on Friday, and by
the way, twelve seven and one so far, feeling very good,
feel like I'm seeing the board very clearly. But they're
like you, you're not doing totals and you're firing into
Friday markets. They're like they're putting They're putting you in
a very, very tough spot to have a winning season.
(04:35):
But I say all of that to say, like, the
markets are supposed to be impartial, and you can look
at offshore markets of the presidential election, and I've talked
to enough people that know this, Like, if we were
allowed to bet legally on the presidential election, it would
be a bigger gambling event than the super Bowl. It
would be the biggest gambling event that we could possibly have.
(04:58):
So I do think generally speaking, the gambling markets for
this stuff are pretty good. I'll be honest. The biggest
gambling loss of my life is the twenty sixteen election.
I just didn't believe it. I just didn't believe it.
And I kept firing on Hillary Clinton night of the election,
and my buddy like, he like text me, He's like, dude,
(05:19):
you've got to stop. Like the markets have spoken. I
don't care what they're saying on CNN. It's like, I
don't care what the polls are saying. I don't care
what you're rooting. Interest is here. He's like, like, the
markets have spoken. And it was a great lesson that
the markets were ahead of what was being talked about
on TV. And obviously that was an event that basically
(05:40):
none of the polls and none of the pundits saw coming.
So I think your theory holds some water because the
market in America is not as sharp as it should
be with this because you can't take it take it legally.
But this you can get five figures six figures down
on the election offshore, no problem. I know people that have.
(06:00):
So I don't believe that it's like terribly influenced by
a bias of the gambling pool because there is plenty
of money down on it. I think this is a
coin flip election. Yeah, right, same, you know, and the
polls pretty much reflect that. Yeah, the gambling markets absolutely
reflect For the last few months, I haven't seen it
(06:21):
be more than like plus one twenty really in either
direction since it's settled when Kamala entered the race. So
this this is a coin flip election. So you know, I.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Said it today, I think, And I had a music
producer text me today that I know off this comment
I made. He liked this comment. I think two things
you see within five to six games of a new
franchise quarterback clear red flags and excellent traits. So I
always use the example of the voice or of American
(07:01):
has talent or American idol. I don't know much about
music other than I enjoy it. But I can see
within three to four notes, you know, I mean literally
twelve seconds hack and great, figuring out lounge singer to
successful lound singer. Good is hard. Justin Fields could be good,
(07:25):
but good is very hard to decipher because the difference
between good and great is consistency. You've got very few
bad games from Mahomes, whereas Russell Wilson now is at
the point where ooh that's pretty good. Oh that's awful.
Same with Justin Field. So I think good is hard
to decipher. I think awful and great are pretty easy.
(07:45):
You can see a draft pick in the NBA, You're like, yeah,
that's like James Wiseman. I'm watching with the Warriors. Like
second year, I'm like, he's never going to be a
star in this league. It is an ant first year
All Star break, You're like, yeah, that's gonna work. Jason
Jason Tatum, even rookie year Jason Tatum, You're like, yeah,
that's gonna work. He's gonna get better. So I look
(08:06):
at Caleb and Jaden Daniels and to a lesser degree
bo Nicks, and I'm like, yep, those are franchise guys.
Whereas Justin Fields was one step forward, two back. Caleb
just keeps getting better. Clearly takes to Jayden Daniels. He's
Lamar Jackson, but better in the pocket. Is a rookie.
Bo Nicks has a lower ceiling, less of an arm,
reads the field, more mobile than anybody that didn't watch
(08:29):
Oregon Duck Games really realizes he's actually really mobile. Bark's
right back at Sean Payton. Not a follower, total leader, confrontational,
and I feel very now now Bo has the less talent.
He's in a division with Harbon Andy Reid like it's
a tough draw. But my take is Caleb, Jayden Bow,
(08:52):
these are franchise quarterbacks. I have no fear saying, yeah,
this is what it looks like.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
So I want to ask you two quick questions before
I give you my full response to it. One, I
guess this would be a small ripon. Do you think
the NBA. I don't think the NBA comparison is fair
because in the NBA it is so purely a talent sport,
like talent can over overcome situation, like John Moran goes
to Memphis, doesn't matter like the franchise, or Anthony Edwards
(09:21):
minis doesn't matter the franchise like your talent will always
win out. In the NBA. You might not win big
if you don't have a good organization, but you can
be a ten time All Star on a bad franchise
and make an impact in the NBA. In football, I
do think situation coaching, offensive line talent around you. It
is so situational that I find it much easier to
(09:44):
make a snap judgment in basketball than I do in football.
And then I guess the quick question I'd give back
to you is what did you say about RG three?
Because his rookie year was historic? So that's good my injury, sure,
But I feel like we have said a lot of
the things we said about Jaden about RG three.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Okay, so I said during RG three's rookie year, I
said Lux the better quarterback. But RG three is more
fun to watch. And voters are suckers for art artistry.
NBA voters Westbrook, Westbrook, he can't has bad handles and
can't shoot. Derek Rose couldn't shoot, spindily ended up getting
(10:23):
hurt a lot. So I think RG three pleased the eye,
but I didn't think it was nearly as sustainable. I
thought Andrew luck was bigger, stronger. I mean, Jesus, the
kid went to Stanford, he memorized a playbook. According to
Kobe Fleeener, who also went to Stanford in two days,
like it's like, yeah, it's so, I never bought into the.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
Crazy but I mean, but RG three was Rookie of
the year, right, I didn't buy it. You so you
didn't buy it, and you buy something Jaden that you
did not buy with RG three.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Oh I think I think ja you know, I said
with RG three, I think he's talented, but he would thin.
I said, Andrew Lucks a better player. So Jaden is
better in the pocket than RG three. I think they're
both equally twitchy. But here's was a real cell for
me on Jayden Daniels. And this almost never happens, almost
(11:18):
as a rule, when you have a rookie quarterback. The
coaching staff says, hey, be patient, this is a process, right. Literally,
Dan Quinn, a defensive coach, was like, I've never seen
anything like this. I mean, they literally En Camp couldn't.
Brian Kelly's like the kid's magic. Brian Kelly runs through
(11:38):
quarterbacks at Notre Dame. I think he had six at
one point in like five years. So part of it
was I watched a lot of his games. Second, the
people I trusted, Cliff Kingsbury, Steve Kim, who hired Hims
a friend. He was like, no calling this kid, Cliff,
can't even like. It's Kyler with more maturity, better in
(11:59):
the pocket. And I like Kyler. So I've had good
sourcing on Jayden and I totally buy it.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
Okay, So Jaden, to me is incredibly impressive. I was
not as sold I certainly was not as sourced on
him as you were. It was hard for me, with
how slender he was and how much talent was around
him to say for sure that it would translate. Like
I loved Drake May coming out of college. I had
(12:25):
him Actually of Jaden some of the games I watched,
I was like, this guy's doing more with less, tough
as hell, crazy athlete. Youngest brother comes from a family
of athletes like overachieved his situation, and Jaden Daniels has
blown me away. I think every piece of hype that
he's gotten has been totally totally valid. I do think
(12:47):
there is an element of some of his production is
based on running the football, and that works obviously. Lamar
Jackson's got a couple of MVPs, but it's not the
type of thing that age is particularly well, Like, we
haven't seen that quarterback in their thirties. Like it's a
(13:08):
depreciating asset. At some point, you need to just be
great from the pocket, and he's been great from the pocket.
So I'm not saying he can't be that. But if
his comp is Lamar Jackson and Caleb Williams's comp is
Aaron Rodgers, if we did a redraft tomorrow, I would
still take Caleb Williams over Jaden Daniels. Yeah, I think
(13:28):
the skill set is actually more sustainable and allows for
a higher ceiling.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Yeah so I so I would too, Absolutely, yes, But
I don't think that's a majority opinion any Yeah. No,
I think Caleb. I use this word a lot. People
think it's weird. Caleb's thicker and trunk here. He's a big,
thick athlete. If you're standing around him, you're like ass legs, shoulders,
like he's like he's just big. Jaden is more spindily
(13:56):
than always worries me. But saying I would take Caleb
over Jaden is like saying I would take vanilla ice
cream over chocolate or whatever. Like I like him both,
and I don't care.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
I don't care, And I was It's possible people at
the beginning, people wanted to make this because Caleb had
a bad couple of games and Shane Waldron had an
awful adjustment to Chicago. People were immediately running too. It's
like people have the memory of one day, one minute,
like it has to be c J. Stroud, Bryce Young.
I mean, are you guys crazy it Like that is
(14:29):
so stupid, Like it's very possible that this draft ends
up being by the way, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberg or
Philip Rivers. How about this, all three awesome quarterbacks, all
three franchises and fan bases are thrilled with their.
Speaker 2 (14:41):
Guy, Danny. You don't have to go back that far.
Herbert Burrow hurt Tua, right, It was just like four
or five years ago we had an incredible draft.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
Yeah, and so I think that that is certainly what
is in play here, because bo Nix and Jaden have
far exceeded with my expectations were for them coming into
the draft, and I'll be honest, it was one game
I thought Drake May was gonna get killed last Sunday. Yeah,
with six offensive line combinations in six games, no offensive
(15:13):
weapons to speak of, defensive head coach, they were sitting
in for a reason. Then it felt like going up
against Houston's pass rush, which led I mean the Patriots
led the league in pressures allowed and the Texans led
the league in pressure percentage generated. I was like, this
is a terrible matchup. Why are they doing this? And
he acquitted himself beautifully. I thought in the game one
(15:34):
of the stories of the season to me is how
these quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are playing so well. But also,
if you just look at completion percentage in the NFL
right now, fifteenth in the NFL, fifteenth is Will Levis,
who's completing sixty six percent of his passage.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
It's not that long.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Ago that that was top three in the NFL or
even something that would lead the league. So I think
what has happened And this is a much better podcast
topic than TV show topic. I think that analytics and
the smart people in football have figured out that conservative
(16:19):
passing is so valuable. Is that an extension of the
run game, and young quarterbacks can do it, and young
quarterbacks are cheap quarterbacks, and we know that's where the
market inefficiency is. So it's never been easier to be
successful as a young quarterback because the passing game is
(16:43):
now more left and right than vertical. And in baseball
and basketball, the analytics revolution has rewarded the high variance plays.
Go for a home run, shoot a three points. So
analytics in those sports has actually injected like the more
(17:04):
difficult skill set, whereas analytics and football don't take risks,
don't throw the ball down the field, don't force it,
just matriculate. We'll go forward on fourth down three yards,
four yards, five yards is fine, and just get the
ball out quick, don't take hits, execute the easy pass.
And so you're seeing, I mean, Jaden Daniels is completing
(17:27):
seventy five percent in his passes. Yeah, that that is
he deserves credit and he does have some big plays
to him, so he's not just binking and dunking. But
that number makes no sense. It seven years ago we
would have been like, that's not gonna happen. And so
I just I think that coaches have gotten so much
(17:49):
smarter at cultivating an offense where young guys can have
a high floor early. Then it makes it more difficult
for me to evaluate their ceiling because I think the
floor has been raised so significantly.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yeah, this is what I have said about the Cowboys
and the Lakers, very insular franchises with a lot of
buses and friends of buses in the Lakers and a
lot of Joneses and friends of Jones' inside the Cowboys.
Is that as the league's gotten sharper, shrewder and more analytical,
the Lakers and the Cowboys have gotten more of the
corner grocery store in a supermarket world. Is that football's
(18:24):
gotten so smart? And you look at the Cowboys right now,
and they're over paying for a quarterback that's a B
plus quarterback Like that is the number one mistake in
the league. Pay for Mahomes or a rookie quarterback. Those
are the only two. You can have Garoppolo and Goff
early in their career and get to a super Bowl.
(18:45):
You can have Garoppolo and get to a super Bowl
before you pay them big.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
You will get if you get McVeigh, if you get Shanahan, Yes,
you get if you get one of those guys. And
obviously those guys don't count against your salary cap, so
do anything you can to hire one of those guys.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
So people, it's remarkable to me that the Cowboys and
the market struggles with this. I think Dallas fans have
finally figured it out. The Athletic did a poll and
like seventy five percent of Cowboy fans are like, we
have no chance to win the super Bowl for five years.
So they get it. Cowboy fans get it. But these
people that think it's an anti deck conversation, No, it's
an anti bank paying a B plus quarterback a plus money.
(19:23):
It is so odd. It's like the most obvious analytics
some we can argue about in baseball. Some are clear
that the ground ball is a death penalty, a strikeout's not.
That's pretty obvious if you don't follow too much analytics
in football, just don't pay a good quarterback great money
if you don't know anything else. That's clear. And the
Cowboy's a billion.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
It's funny. It's I get why teams do it even
saying that, because in Dallas's situation, let's say they decided
not to pay Dak and just let him leave for nothing.
That's also bad team building. Like he finished second in
the league in MVP last year. He's won twelve games
(20:05):
three years in a row. They led the league in
scoring last year. I hate when teams just let stars
walk for nothing. You have to get something for your asset,
even if it's sixty cents on the dollar. You have
to get something. And so Dallas was going to be
too good to draft Drake may or to draft Bo Knicks,
(20:25):
or to draft Jada Daniels, and so then they would
be more they maybe they wouldn't be paying big money
to go get a good quarterback, but they would be
trading multiple first round picks to move up and get
a good quarterback. And do you trust that Jerry Jones
is going to hire the right coach to develop the
young quarterback? Because yeah, if you could say, I'd rather
(20:46):
have Jaden Daniels at his money than Dak Prescott at
his like of course, obviously, but Atlanta was like, we
can't have another year of Desmond Ritter, Like we will
give Kirk Cousins one hundred and eighty million dollars at
thirty five coming off of an achilles and draft Michael
Pennix so that we never have to go through a
(21:08):
season like that again, Like there aren't thirty two good
quarterbacks in the world that can do this job, and
there's thirty two teams. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:17):
I also think something I touched on last week is
quarterbacks come in more ready to play, but owners are
more ready to fire them. So you've got this convergence
of yeah, wealthier, wealthier owners, more impulsive, quarterbacks, more talented,
we're not giving you two full years. I mean the
(21:37):
fact that Daniel Jones got an extension and was basically
a C minus quarterback, it's just that doesn't that doesn't
happen anymore.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
You know that that that was a terrible one. That
that that one made made no sense. And the thing
about these rookies, like I I kept saying when I
was still doing radio in Chicago, I was like, we
need to hold Caleb Williams to a really high standard. Yeah,
And people were like, why do you keep saying CJ.
Stroud that's an outlier? No, it wasn't. The outlier for
(22:09):
Stroud was that he didn't throw interceptions. He only had
five interceptions, but Dak had four. Like we have as
a rookie. We have seen it before the guy had
twenty three touchdowns. He had a little over four thousand yards.
It was a very, very, very impressive season because no
one saw it coming. Houston was terrible. He turned him around.
(22:30):
He won a playoff game, but I mean he beat
the Browns. He beat Joe Flacco in a playoff game,
like and again this is not to knock ce J Stroud,
but my point is it is easy easier to be
good as a rookie because back in the day, you'd
be playing in like the Big twelve in a spread offense,
(22:50):
and they'd be like, come into the NFL and be
under center and take seven step drops and throw post routes.
And now they're like, everything's out of the shotgun. You
could have a risk band. We're going to call the
play in on a number, and we're going to give
you a run pass option, just like you had in college.
(23:11):
So it's just so much easier to be good early
that I hope that we get smarter when Shador Sanders
or whoever comes into the NFL next year, and then
everyone's like pump the brakes on expectations. No man, like
build your organization from coaches, from investment in the offensive
(23:32):
line wide receivers. Build your organization to take advantage of
the first four years of these guys when they're crazy cheap,
because that's the easiest time it should ever be for
you to win a Super Bowl if you have a
great quarterback. And I do think that Washington and Chicago,
at least, I'll say it on those guys. You're farther
ahead on bow next than I am. But those teams
(23:53):
should be making hyper aggressive moves the next three years
to win a Super Bowl, because that's what you can
do if you've got a quarterback who is that good?
Is that cheap?
Speaker 2 (24:06):
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(24:51):
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in your life. This is a paid advertisement. There are
(25:17):
certain things that the media does. They don't irritate me,
but they're so predictable. One of them is early in
the season when there are injuries. People are like, I
don't think I've ever seen this many NFL injuries. Yes,
you have twelve months earlier, and in the end, almost
(25:40):
without exception, you get to a Super Bowl and each
team is missing like one starter, and teams are overwhelmingly healthy.
Players get healthier. Players are they hit less in practice,
they hit less in games. Doctors are better, fitness, fitness
is better. They're fine. So here's the other one that
just cracks me up. After a great weekend in college football, man,
(26:05):
college football is so much better than the NFL. No,
they're both great, and they're different. The NFL is a
higher level of coaching and playing. You get guaranteed, like
five to seven great games a weekend, even though there's
only thirty two teams. In college football, you have one
hundred and thirty teams, and you may get four great
(26:26):
games and a great weekend. I mean, like last weekend
was great, and we all knew it was great. But
you'll have weekends going into a college football weekend where
like there's like one game between ranked teams and you
can get a nice Kansas State TCU game, But I
went out with my wife, I'm not watching it. So
here's how I look at the NFL in college The
(26:48):
NFL is a successful brother in the family. He always
has a nice car, he's got a nice fund with
his broker. A little boring at times and predictable, but
you kind of know what you get. College football is
the brother and the family that twice a year you
have a big part of You invite him over and
(27:09):
he'll take all his clothes off, go naked, jump into
a pool, kind of drunk. People laugh, but it's kind
of inappropriate. You're not happy with him, but you do
wake up the next morning and say, you know, he
really gets the most out of life. We have a
nicer our kids go to better schools, we have a
nicer life. But you know, Tim, he really has a
good time in life. And that's how I feel. College
(27:31):
football is at its best. It's wild, fans are pouring
on the field. The officiating can be abjectly horrid.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
These are twenty words soccer players who may or may
not know what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
Special teams are a s show.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yeah, but like.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Tim who got naked and jumped to into a pool,
there is something memorable and ecstatic about it. And I
thought Oregon Oregon Ohio State was that it's like Jesus.
But my point being, if I circle back, is they're
both great. They're much more unique. One's corporate, one's on
(28:13):
a campus, and I think that's the beauty of them.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
Well, it's funny, though, I mean, some of your finest work, Colin,
what are your finest analogies. We gotta work on Tim's name.
I feel like Tim's name should be like like Madison
or like Bucky or you've seen like like a college Yeah, exactly,
so we get we gotta work on Tim's name, but
otherwise nine point eight out of ten on the Colin
(28:37):
Analogy scale. And I was just judging myself because I
like the NFL so much more than college. And I'm like, yeah,
I'm the boring, corporate, suburban guy with like the healthy stockportfolio.
Yeah I know, dude, I'm washed up, Like I got
a wife and two kids and I just love like
a sushi dinner and a bottle of red and a
nice early bedtime. But but yeah, it is. It's it's
(29:00):
true college at its best. It's just you're like, this
is crazy. I don't understand what's happening here. This is random.
A team that's a thirty point underdog can win a game,
like you know, the NFL. It's like, oh, the biggest
spread on the board is six and a half, right,
Like it's parody by design. There's a salary cap, there's
a salary floor. Free Agents are just as likely to
(29:23):
choose Dallas as they are Buffalo in Green Bay because
they just follow the money. Like it's I think the
NFL is the perfect viewing product. I think it's perfect.
Every game matters. Every team before the season doesn't think
they can win a Super Bowl. But like worst a
first tap in every single year, rookie quarterbacks can change
(29:43):
a franchise on a dime. Like basically every franchise has
some reason to believe at least within three years, right,
Like Jacksonville three years ago absolutely thought that it was
on the board that they had a future Hall of
Fame quarterback. So I think the NFL is a perfect
viewing product, and college is just a little tougher for
(30:03):
me to like follow and be fully invested in week
in and week out. But college at its best is
just awesome. And it's because it means like an irrational
amount to the people in the building. Not that pro
fans don't fight, and pro fans aren't passionate, they obviously are,
(30:26):
but it's just like the tribalism of like this is
the most important thing in the entire state of Alabama. Right,
I'm a fifth generation Badger, Like there's just something about
like the college football pageantry that I'll never be able
to quit. What did you think about what Dan Lanning did?
(30:46):
Should that penalty putting twelve men on the field intentionally
at the end of the game be more than five yards?
That probably it feels like a cheat code to.
Speaker 2 (30:57):
Me, yeah, a little bit. But my account's job is
to find holes in the tax system, and we're going
to find them every year. I make it very clear
to my accountant, my entertainment attorney, we do not cheat,
but our job is to assist me in paying the
(31:17):
least amount of taxes I can. In California, that's legal,
and I think that's really that's what an accountant's job is,
to find holes and crevices. Yeah, no, so yes, I
think I look at it like this. There are two rules.
(31:38):
There's a certain rule that college has better than pro
pass interference. No penalty should be sixty four yards. It's
stupid if our feet are tangled and it's a I
mean that would literally be like imprisonment for jaywalking. Your
feet get tangled, it's a sixty four yard penalty. It
shouldn't be. So college has that better overt But conversely,
(32:02):
neither side can figure out overtime, and both sports have
made multiple changes. My theory has always been the road
team gets the ball first, because it's harder to play
on the road. You get it first, first, score wins.
Nobody likes that I wrote about it in my first book.
So the way I look at this is. It is
a smart coach and a smart staff manipulating the rules.
(32:23):
It's not up to Oregon to play nice. It's up
to the NCAA to get their shit together.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
I completely agree with you. I'm not mad at Dan Lanning.
But when your accountant finds a loophole, that then the
government finds, oh my god, we're losing a bunch of
money on this because there's a loophole, I expect them
to close the loophole. Yeah, and so just like it
should clearly be a pre snap penalty, like they should.
(32:51):
They should not let the time run off the clock, like, hey,
there's twelve guys out here. Ball is snapped, like blow
the play dead. It's on the defense. So or put
the time and back on the clock right, like so
instead of it going from ten seconds to five seconds,
it just hey, we got to put this pack. We
know what you're doing. We got to put it back
to ten seconds. Like make the rule like less than
(33:11):
three minutes left in a game or something. If you
do twelve minut on the field on defense, no time
can come off the clock. Like it's a pretty easy fix.
Or make it a twenty fifteen yard penalty. It's an
easy fix, but I was just like, God, damn it.
By the way, that's that's smart. But you should be
penalized more because we did catch you.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
But can we both agree? The worst rule in sports
is the nfls you fumble into the end zone and
the other team gets the ball.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
Yes, I hate that. I hate that rule, but I
do think there should be a compromise. It shouldn't be
that the other team gets the ball. I like the
reverse touchback. Okay, so the first touchback. I mean it
doesn't exist anywhere, so I understand why you'd be confused.
I'm running into the end zone, I'm diving for the
pilot on I fumble. If the ball goes out of bounds,
(34:05):
I don't think I should get the ball back just
because the other team didn't recover back at the one
yard line. I do think there should be some penalties
for like or like added emphasis on ball security by
the end zone. If you fumble and they don't recover
and it goes out the end zone, you get the
ball back. You don't lose possession, but you've got to
go back to the twenty yard balls.
Speaker 2 (34:21):
Yes, totally agree, totally agree.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
I call it a reverse touchback. I don't know if
there's a better way to call it that. Yeah, like
it was second if it was second in goal from
the four and you go out of bounce at the
one and the ball or the ball and the ball
goes out the end zone. Now it's third and goal
from the twenty, Like you know what I mean? Like
you got you should have. You should have a severe
penalty for fumbling the ball by the end zone. So
(34:44):
it should not be a change of possession unless the
defense actually recovers the ball. Defense needs to recover the
ball in order for the defense to get the ball.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
That's rightly. I don't think you should get a possession
without recovery.
Speaker 1 (34:56):
I got another one for you. We're talking rule we're
talking rules changes. I did this on the TV show,
but they're like, you're talking kicking. You can do it
in one minute. So I had to literally do this
in one minute. So I'm bringing this to your podcast.
I'm seeing too many field goal kickers this year. I
had the dat after five weeks. I'm going to assume
that it's the same after six, So just roll with me.
(35:18):
After five weeks, we had seen more fifty yard field
goal attempts than any time in league history. And I
had our research or chart it. It is a straight
line going up. It's like in Nvidia stock like, it
is just a straight And it went from seventy six
(35:40):
fifty yard plus field goal attempts through five weeks last
year to ninety seven this year. So it is exponential growth.
And my theory is you get five yards extra on
these touchbacks because the new kickoff rule, and kickers have
gotten really damn good, like Brandon Aubrey is ridiculous, is amazing.
(36:01):
But I don't want to watch kickoff touchback two or
three first downs field goal. I think that that makes
you less likely to go forward on fourth down. And
field goal attempts are not interesting. They're interesting at the
end of the game when something serious is like a
(36:22):
game winning field goal is a suspenseful play. A forty
four yard field goal is not interesting because I let
not only are field goal attempts up, the make percentage
is up. Seventy six percent of field goals fifty yards
or more are makes now, So to me, the kickers
have gotten too good. It's too big of a part
(36:44):
of the game. Narrow your uprights. Jason Kelsey said on
his podcast too, I agree with it. Field goals, the
uprights are eighteen yards wide. In the Arena League it
was nine yards wide. Let's narrow the goalposts to bring
down these numbers. I don't want to see six field
goal attempts a game. It's four, okay.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
So people years ago, thirty forty years ago suggested because
Kareem in the seventies, Wilt dunking was so easy, we
should raise we should raise the rims to eleven. And
my take is there are changes in all sports, but
(37:25):
not everything has to be hard. In golf, long putts
are hard. Driving the fairway for a pro isn't really hard.
That Yes, pats are easier and kicks are easier, but
that's okay because when you miss one, it's shocking. So
(37:46):
you do get the drama when they do miss one
out of four. That is, sports aren't just about making
things difficult. Great for Michael Jordan in a zone, the
mid range sixteen footer was just money. Even in the playoffs,
he was like sixty percent, And that's okay. People pay
to see athletes succeed, not fail. So I like my kick.
(38:09):
I mean, these guys get death threats on college campuses.
I liked my kickers making most of their kicks because
if kicking, if kicking was harder and they missed more
of their kicks, it'd be more bad quarterbacks going forward
on fourth down, more good teams getting the ball in
prime field position, and the and margins would grow.
Speaker 1 (38:33):
Yeah, okay, I mean reasonable counterpoint. I personally would rather
watch a fourth down attempt than a field goal attempt,
like i'd rather see Dak Have you ever.
Speaker 2 (38:45):
Watched Zach Wilson play?
Speaker 1 (38:48):
No, we were just talking about how it's gotten easier
to play quarterback. But I'd rather watch Dak Prescott throw
the ball to Ceedee Lamb than Brandon Aubrey kick a
field goal. Your point on everything in sports doesn't have
to be difficult and maximum difficulty is true, But I mean,
I don't know, man, there is something to the US
(39:10):
Open being the most fun golf tournament to watch. Yeah,
watching the pros struggle. You go to an NBA game
like they're too good at shooting. I'm sorry. I love
the NBA. I love it so much. Like I'm going
to follow Lonzo Ball's preseason debut tonight for the Bulls
to see how his knee holds up. Like, I love
(39:31):
the NBA, but they're too damn good at shooting. So
I'm interested in figuring out a way to make it
so that the the six ' ten power forward who
gets fourteen rebounds a game is also not a thirty
eight percent three point shooter, because then the math says
that he should shoot threes over go bang down by
the rim. So I do look for ways to make
(39:52):
it a little bit more difficult on some of these
guys because they have gotten so good. They're so good
at these games.
Speaker 2 (40:08):
It's interesting I was watching. I think I've told you
this before. Is when I built my show and my business,
I've always built them on a basic premise. I'll talk
about things that are urgent and stars. So you have
to have one of those two things. College football, Pro football,
scarcity of games, urgency, NBA stars, UFC have e Connor
(40:31):
McGregor fights Tiger and his prime stars only one masters
a year. I think it's always been the downside to
baseball where they don't promote their stars and they's zero scarcity.
But I will say where I think the Dodgers are
really smart, They basically just I think it's really brilliant
and it doesn't get as much play now a lot
(40:51):
of their stars are hurt. I mean, even though Tahani
can't pitch. Now, they have an entire pitching staff, a
strong top five starting pitching staff on the shelf. The
fact that they're in the NLCS with like five great
pitchers unavailable is remarkable. But basically what they did they said,
in a changing landscape where baseball is hurting in attendance,
(41:14):
we're going to buy an all star team and we're
going to push most of the big salaries down the road.
And baseball is like, wait a minute, your payrolls. Fifth,
you spend a billion dollars in the off season. Second
was the San Francisco Giants at three hundred and thirty
million dollars. And I do think there is something to
be said in sports socialism works, salary caps or socialism
(41:40):
baseball basically just go spend a billion dollars and then
you can make it work by pushing down the salaries
and what so the idea is socialism works. But I
would argue a Yankees Dodgers World Series is validating my belief,
which is big brands win. Baseball never wins. If the
(42:03):
Guardians are in the World Series, or the Tampa Bay
Rays of the Orioles, and so in the end, because
of the slow pace of baseball in a frenetic, caffeinated world,
that allowing the big markets to just have all star teams.
It's not socialism, it's total capitalism. It's not fair, it's
(42:25):
not remotely even. And it's the only way for baseball
to grow.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Yeah, it's me listen, maybe gross. It's gross, and it's gross.
And the our boss's boss, right, like at the top
of the they're thrilled, like get the Yankees in there,
and Dodgers are Mets. They'll be fine with either, right,
It's much better business than Rangers dbacs. I do think that, See,
(43:01):
I don't agree that baseball doesn't market it stars. I
think that people just don't care like out out like
they market them. They have commercials, they have endorsement deals.
It's just that if I watch the Cubs, and I
care about the Cubs, there is not enough time for
me to watch the Dodgers. It's impossible. There's one hundred
and sixty two games like and I will always be
in more interested in Cubs, Cubs, Reds than Yankees. Dodgers.
(43:26):
It doesn't matter to me about Otani and Aaron Judge
because I care about the Cubs and like, so baseball
makes a Baseball makes one hundred dollars with fives and singles.
The NFL makes one hundred dollars with one hundred dollars
bill and with gold bricks. Like it's just a different way.
They're both good businesses, they're both growth businesses. So the
players in baseball will never accept the salary cap. It's
(43:48):
just like their bedrock principle. But I'm telling you man,
baseball's economic model. We've talked about this with the with
the regional sports networks, Like they make their money not
from the NASH TV deals. Obviously they make some, they
make time, but they make their money from two things,
really attendance because there's so much inventory, and local media rights.
(44:12):
Because again there's so much inventory. The Marquee Sports network
that airs Cubs games, they get one hundred and fifty
Cubs games a year. That's a lot of television. That's
a lot of commercials, that's a lot of advertisements to sell.
So the RSN model is collapsing.
Speaker 2 (44:32):
Hurting the small market teams much more correct well.
Speaker 1 (44:36):
Correct but like that is going to create a situation
where players are going to come up for free agency
and it's like, Okay, the Dodgers, they can't afford them,
but do they need them? But do they if they
already have freemen and bats and otan, Like, they're not
(44:58):
gonna just there's gonna be gone, Like this offseason, Aaron
Orwan Sota will get paid, Corbyn Burns will get paid,
and I don't think there will be another nine figure
free agent this offseason. Like the have and have nots
is going to grow so much and so many teams
(45:20):
are going to be making relatively nothing from their local
TV deals. And then that also will hurt attendance because
you're not gonna be able to feel an exciting competitive team.
You'll be eliminated by May. By the time kids are
out of school and you want to go to games,
the team is going to be fifteen games out of
first that you don't have to have socialism, but I'm
(45:43):
not sure you can have completely unchecked capitalism either. Like
it will make it will make TV executives happy at
the end to have the Yankees and the Dodgers in it,
But the health of baseball is June, July August Companion
Sport barbecues Fourth of July, trying to pack stadiums for
(46:06):
eighty one home games a year in thirty different cities.
Why would you go to a game in Pittsburgh in
June if you have no shot? Or I mean, Milwaukee
does a nice job as an organization. Tannas will run
do a nice job. But it's just I don't know.
I think that the economic model of baseball is at
(46:28):
a real teetering point that either the players are gonna
have to break and accept a salary floor and a
salary cap, or there's going to be need to be
more drastic like revenue sharing, like the Dodgers should will
not be able to keep all of their local TV
rights because I think some of these teams are just
never going to be able to compete again on the
money side.
Speaker 2 (46:49):
Yeah, I don't think you're necessarily wrong. So last time
we talked, we talked about your sort of indoctrination into
New York and New York's post Yeah so, and the
city itself. I tend to prefer I'm a London, Chicago
guy more than a New York guy or a Boston guy.
(47:12):
Nothing against him. I like the people of New York.
I like the food and the people. I don't like
the smell and the congestion, but whatever. I don't like
Rome as much as people do. I don't like New
York as much as people do. I love London. In Chicago,
I think it's easier to get around town. Is there
something in New York for our audience that's surprisingly good?
(47:36):
Something about New York that you said to yourself, Wow,
it's even better than the city I grew up that
I love Chicago.
Speaker 1 (47:44):
It's tough for me to give better. Well, I will,
I'll say, I mean, I'll say this Central Park is
not overrated. Central Park is amazing, Yes, but it is.
It is amazing how big it is and how peaceful
it is because everything If you find green space in
(48:08):
this concrete jungle, you're like off to a flame. You're like,
oh my god, green space. But a lot of the
like little small parks, they're so busy, and so it's
like can I like you stand up from your chair
and like someone's like, oh you're are you getting up?
And like they're coming in to like immediately fill your chair.
(48:29):
Like it's it's tough to find a quiet moment doors
in this city. But then you go to the most
famous one, Central Park, and there could be thousands and
thousands of people, and there's rickshaws and people drawing caricatures
of people, and you know, hustle and bustle and Nathan's
hot dog stands and like there's commerce and everything. You
(48:53):
can find a patch of green, sit down and have
a cocktail or listen to a podcast and fall asleep
in the grass yep, and not be bothered, like it
is an amazing Like I Chicago has a beautiful lakefront
and Millennium Park is great, but it's it's not as
(49:15):
like private like it's it's like you can go into
places in Central Park and not see buildings.
Speaker 2 (49:24):
Yeah that's insane.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
So you just like because then as soon as you
step a second outside of it, you're like, oh, right,
I'm in New York, so I think that everyone knows
about it. So like, oh, Central Park is great, Like
sweet Danny, thanks for the breaking news. It really is great.
And then I just want to shout this out your podcast.
We talked about stand up comedy last time, and two
(49:49):
different comedians reached out to me on Instagram after hearing
about it and one of them is Jared Freed, who's
an awesome comedian New York regular, And I was going
back and forth on Instagram and he was like, Yeah,
if you want to ever come to the Cellar, let
me know. And I went to the Cellar last night,
just table for one at the Comedy Seller and asked
(50:10):
a producer on the show for a recommendation for a
spot by there. She gave our social media lady Gianna
gave me a great spot. Had steak. Freetz went to
the Cellar by myself fourteen dollars cover, no big like
cheap entertainment. Louis c k dropped in Jesus, the guy
sells out arenas he place goes. So there's there's a
(50:31):
there's a Tuesday, you know what I mean. It was
just there's something too Anything can happen here at any time.
Speaker 2 (50:40):
Yep.
Speaker 1 (50:41):
That is such a cliche about New York. But it's
just true, man, it's just true.
Speaker 2 (50:47):
Well I can remember it very well. Buddy of mine,
I was at ESPN. A buddy of mine, Brian from Portland,
was in New York and he said, Hey, you want
to go to a comedy club tonight? And I went
to I think Carolines. I think it was Caroline's, and
so I said, yeah, I'll meet you Carolines. And we
went and I think we had a steak dinner. Could
(51:08):
have been Del Frisco if I recall, I went to Carolines.
And one of my favorite I've been saying this for
twenty years, one of my favorite people in the world
is Colin Quinn. I think he's so funny.
Speaker 1 (51:20):
I saw him do an Hour at the Cellar three
weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (51:23):
It was amazing, and he was working on an act
and in fact, his cousin, who wasn't nearly as funny,
opened cool, that's funny. And then Colin went an hour
and he was wearing like sweatpants and a pizza stained
shirt and he went up there and I remember telling
my buddy, and this was like twenty years ago. I'm like,
(51:45):
that's the funniest guy in the country that hasn't become
Now he's become a megastar now doing stuff on Broadway,
but at the time he was doing shows and I
we walked out of there and I'm like, that's a
like usually a guy gets funny really quick, like John
mulaney within a year and a half, You're like, Wow, star,
And I remember thinking Colin Quinn is literally brilliant and
(52:06):
funny and so likable and relatable, and it just pleases
me that he's had all of his success. I mean
his Twitter account. He's literally set on Twitter. If you
watch it, it's all sarcasm. He plays. He literally plays
a character. Hey, gang, have you heard about the super
Bowl today? I'm having a private party. Like his whole
(52:30):
persona on Twitter. I think is outrageously funny. And I'm
so that's just a classic New York straight. I just
walk into Carolines with a buddy and we sat there
for an hour in our stomach's hurt.
Speaker 1 (52:40):
It was. It was amazing because so there was I'm
sat at a table for five, and I'm a solo
and i love going and doing things by myself, so
I've have no problem. But it's four, you know, people
in their fifties who have never been to the Comedy
Cellar before. But they were like pretty decent comedy fans.
Like they were like thrown out names that it wasn't
just Dave Chappelle and Chris Rock, Like they knew who
(53:00):
Sam Morrel was, they knew who David Tell were like
they were they at least had like some knowledge of comedy.
And I was telling him about the seller and I
was like, listen, you're not going to know every name here,
but like, like I looked at the lineup ahead of time,
like Greer Barnes, no one knows who Greer Barnes Isn't
I don't mean to say that disrespectfully, but he's not
like a huge tour in comic but he's a killer.
(53:23):
He's so funny. He is just like a New York
pro and he murders the room. Like everyone who gets
up at the cellar that's a paid regular. They're like
they are absolute killers. They kill in New York. They
can tour. Uh maybe they're an opening act, maybe they're
a middle act, but like they absolutely can make money
(53:45):
on the road. They'll work on like The Tonight Show
or Seth Meyers or Colebert. Like it's just such a
cool scene that that's just as a thing you can't
get in Chicago because all those comedians come to Chicago,
but they come on their tour, So I can't see
Louis c k drop in on a Tuesday in Chicago.
(54:05):
It just it's just not something that can happen two
places la New York, only two places where that can
happen in that scene. And so I just I mean,
Stevie Wonder did like a pop up show at Madison
Square Garden last week. It was like an unannounced show
at Madison Square Garden. I didn't go. I didn't know
about it. I'm not cool enough to know about it.
But I was like, wait, what like an unadvertised show
(54:29):
from Stevie Wonder at the garden? Like how does and
it doesn't even go? How did she sell tickets? Who
knew about it? So I don't. I'm still trying to
figure out my way into the New York scene. But
it's it's a pretty amazing place. I'll never say it's
better than Chicago because cost of living, my home, my
people Midwest like it's I'm just I'll never be able
(54:51):
to get over that bias. But it's a pretty amazing place.
It really is.
Speaker 2 (54:55):
Yeah, I it's you know, the late Larry King used
to have a line about how New Yorkers are smart,
they're savvy. He used to have a line, but he
said a homeless guy in New York could own a
grocery chain in Iowa.
Speaker 1 (55:09):
I mean, that's also the thing about New Yorkers, where
there's this arrogance of like I went to Yankees Royals
the Division series with Nick and his family. There was
a shocking number of people who were wearing jackets on
the back there's like a Yankees emblem on the chest
and the slogan on the back was like New York
(55:30):
or nowhere, Like there really are like like like one
out of fifteen people, like we're wearing this jacket that
is like it's so small. Like they absolutely believe that
if you're like, no, Chicago's about as good as New York,
Like when you factor everything, they're like, no, that's ridiculous,
Like like they absolutely think like Paris, London, Chicago, you know,
(55:56):
Florence kind of Florrence. Get the hell out of here
with your Florence Italy. Like like there's like a smugness
to the New York superiority that I actually respect because
they're just so convinced that there's nowhere else in the
world that even comes close to comparing.
Speaker 2 (56:13):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I know some New Yorkers who
have never been west of the Hudson, and that's okay.
Speaker 1 (56:18):
Exactly they and you would say, like, maybe you should
check it out. The Grand Canyon's beautiful, and they're like, hey,
we got holds in our concrete here. What do I
need to see that hole for? Like, it's just crazy,
but it's I do. I do respect it like it's
at They're like, oh the subway, yeah, it smells like
urine and there's rats and you'll see a naked person
(56:38):
on it every three trips. But how else would you
prefer to get around? I'm like, I don't know any
other way, but it's New York.
Speaker 2 (56:49):
Danny Parkins, as always, Buddy, great stuff.
Speaker 1 (56:52):
Loved it anytime, Buddy, let's do it the volume.
Speaker 2 (56:58):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment, rate and review
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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