Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the College Football Playoff and NFL Wild Card Weekend after briefly addressing the horrific wildfires that have decimated several areas around Los Angeles.
3:00 - Los Angeles fires
16:00 - Texas vs Ohio State
20:00 - Steelers vs Ravens
29:30 - Eagles vs Packers
33:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers
35:15 - Rams vs Vikings
38:45 - Bills vs Broncos
42:00 - Chargers vs Texans
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
All right. Time to bring in Chad Millman, co host
of the Favorites. We always call this sharp or square,
all of our odds provided by DraftKings. We will start
because Chad and I were texting the other day on
the wildfires and the devastating damage in southern California. You know,
it's interesting, Chad. One of the things I try not
(00:31):
to fall into, and it's just rampant on the internet,
is making things political when they don't necessarily need to be,
you know, and the areas that were devastated, Malibu and Palisades,
specific Palisades. I've actually driven around a lot over the
last several years because I was looking to buy a
home in Pacific Palisades. And one of the reasons I didn't,
(00:54):
and my wife and I didn't is because the inaccessibility
of these windy roads and canyons. And I had said
to my wife, if I got into trouble or had
a heart attack, I mean it could take forty minutes
for somebody to get here you an ambulance. And so
you had this, You had four concurrent wildfires, eighty mile
(01:19):
an hour winds, which meant planes were not allowed to
fly over and drop water. So two things happened. Four
concurrent wildfires historically bad wins, not even in fire season,
and you couldn't use planes. It's like the world's worst tsunami.
(01:41):
You can blame the Coastguard. You can't prepare for it.
And if people don't know this area and Topanga Canyon
and Malibu, they have no idea what this place is
like like most people that work nine to five. You
can't live in Malibu because you can't get in and
out of it in the morning. So you know, people
are making this to completely. And I voted for Rick
(02:02):
Caruso over Karen Bass, you know, because I thought the
city needed somebody who was a development a builder for
their homeless issues. I thought he could really solve that
and he had a real detailed plan on this and
I got nothing four against Karen Bass. But sometimes things
happened historically and you can't prepare or solve it. And
(02:25):
I'm not saying I mean they had these water tanks available.
They blew through three of them, millions of gallons of water,
very very quickly. They could have had six of those reservoirs,
not three. It wouldn't have solved it. So it's one
of those things for people asking me, do we have
(02:45):
to make it political? Like this thing was historical. People
don't understand the day of those They told you a
day out in Los Angeles two days before there was
a weather warning and they put the list of how
strong the winds would be, and everybody in town was like, Oh,
this is trouble. This is big trouble. So there was
(03:06):
some sense it could be, it could be happening. But
and now there's arson. There's there's discussions of arson on
some of these later fires. But I'm okay. The firefighters
are amazing, but I don't think people understand this region.
This area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons
(03:27):
and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense on
the flat lower levels it made it very difficult to
get up and solve the upper tier, the upper parts
of it. So that's my rant on it. I'm fine.
I've got friends who have lost homes. It's gutting, it's awful,
it's terrible. But I just wish people sometimes not everything
(03:49):
would have to be about politics.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
This was a historically bad two days of four concurrent wildfires,
an eighty mile an hour winds.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
And four concurrent wildfires. By the way, if you look
at the maps, it's not isolated to four sections of
Greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other.
You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are
not on top of each other, and you're getting massive
(04:24):
fires in both places. I, like you, have been struck
by people who are saying this isn't global warming, this
is the City of Los Angeles' inability to manage the
catastrophe by not having water or not having police and
fire where they need to have them. It all strikes
(04:46):
me as a little disingenuous, because in either capacity, something
is causing this. It's not the police and fire and
lack of water that are causing eighty to one hundred
mile and how or winds. And I don't really understand
why it has to get political at all. Like you,
someone's got to get people out, someone's got to go
(05:09):
manage the fire. They are doing the best job they
possibly can. I'm always struck by when I'm driving around LA,
especially in the hills, how the entire area is constructed
like a Jenga set. Right. You see, there's a house
on every single inch of property going up these winding roads.
(05:32):
I know Palisades a little bit less and it's astonishing
to me the way the city and the hills, especially
houses have been constructed there. It's not surprising when you're
seeing an area that is so compact with housing. The
fire is jumping from one place to the next. There's
no opportunity for it to stop because there's so much
(05:54):
fuel there. It is as someone who's three, you know,
a thousand miles away and has a lot of friends
like you who are in the area, it's frightening to watch.
It's frightening to see the stories that are coming out
of there. It's frightened to see the images. It's it
really truly is apocalyptic. It's yeah, it's astonished.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I ended up buying a home in an area that
is easy to access, get in and out of, about
you know, five miles away from Palisades, but it's a
jungle when you drive through it, it's this lush, gorgeous trees,
brush canyons. It's it's my first take driving through it was, oh,
(06:32):
I can't live here. It's just too hard to access.
So you're asking these brave and courageous firefighters and these
people of La County, who are remarkably courageous, strident, tough.
You're asking them you can't use planes. The winds are
eighty miles an hour. People are running out of their cars.
(06:52):
It was it was a scene from an awful movie.
And listen, it's it's just when you get these natural disasters. Boy,
everybody's looking for perfection and everybody's pointing fingers. There are
so many people, a thousand homes. I mean, you will
(07:13):
look at area aerial footage now, you cannot believe, Chad,
what it looks like. It is literally like a zip code,
every house burnt down.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
It's awful. It looks like it looks like what we
see when we get images from war torn countries where
it's just buildings and cars that are completely burned out,
except it's in the middle of one of the wealthiest
areas in the entire country. It's it's astonishing and devastating
(07:44):
to look at it, truly is. It's stunning. Yeah. So
just just I'm glad you're okay. I'm glad you're okay.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Yeah, And I know this is a somber tone, but
I just you know, I thought about this today. People,
I've gotten I've gotten fifty texts in the last two days,
and I'm more of the lucky I'm one of the
lucky key ones I've got. You know, some kids around
that you know, have kind of been on pins and needles.
But it is, uh, there's there are some heroes and
all this stuff because there were houses.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
It ever make you want to leave California.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
You know, my wife's not a fan for a lot
of reasons. Uh the expense. You know, it's every place
has their issues, as that's pretty been pretty well documented.
I have purchased a place in Chicago, and so I'm
spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife
(08:34):
has given so much to me in our relationship and
sacrificed and I've never sacrificed for her and living by
her family, and I love the people that's out in California.
There's so many things I love about it. But you know,
my wife's not as big a fan, and she misses
her sister and her family in the Midwest. And by
the way, I love Chicago and I still love la
(08:56):
but you know, it's just just just one of those
things where I don't want to ever use a singular
reason for being mobile. I like Connecticut. You know, people
always used to poke fun at Connecticut. It's boring, and
I'm like.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
I was there a decade. It was fine.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
I had great friends, great neighbors, high schools were great.
My kids loved it. So I think there's a lot
of places in this country to live. And I think
the people in every place I've lived in Nevada, Oregon, Washington, California, Connecticut.
I spent a lot of time in Rhode Island. Everywhere
I go people are great. Sometimes the politicians aren't, sometimes
(09:32):
the regulations aren't, but the people are amazing everywhere I go.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Well, look, you know how much I left Chicago as
a Chicago in or you know, kid from the suburbs
of Chicago. I did see your picture the other day
wearing your new fancy winner coat, and I felt like
he needs to wear a hat, Like it's you can't
just go with a coat. You got a layer and
you got to wear a hat. Yeah I did. It's
(09:58):
really important, especially like we're you live in the city.
Where are your places? You got wind tunnels coming down there.
I know that's dangerous right there.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
I know I wore a hat later in the day. Okay,
let's start.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
I will tell you one thing and you'll appreciate this.
I know people don't want to hear weather talk, but
I will. I will tell you one story and people
will like this. So you know, when we on the
Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network, we do a contest
every year, a season long pick of contest. We give
away one hundred thousand dollars over the course of the year.
Don't worry, it's not your money, Colin. I just want
you to know we're not giving away your money, but
we do give away. The winner of the season long
(10:31):
contest gets forty thousand dollars first place prize. So we
had the winner on the show today. The winner, by
the way, discovered the Favorites podcast because he's a fan
of Colin Cowherd and over the years he has seen
me either on television with you at ESPN or on
this show with you through the Volume and the various
things that you've been kind enough to have me on
(10:52):
and now with The Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network.
So that's how we discovered us. His job, he is
a farmer in bow Bell's, North Dakota, which is a
speck of a town with three hundred people. And he
lives outside bow Bells, which is within the Canadian border
shouting distance, right. So of course I'm like, you don't
(11:13):
get I said to him, you don't get days off
as a farmer. And North Dakota gets cold. What kind
of coat are you wearing it to stay warm? And
so we went through he's layering. He's got a good
car heart coat. That's how he stays warm when he's
in the tractor and he's watching red Zone while he's
making bets. That's how he's doing it. I feel like
you need to make sure you're layering. I just want
(11:34):
you to be comfortable when you're in Chicago. I don't
want you to find any reason.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
People also like those two cities in the country get
criticized more but are more fun to be in than
Los Angeles. To Chicago, La can be a ball. I
absolutely love Chicago. I've said my favorite city in the
world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Dude, my favorite city in the world is London. Oh,
my second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, you're the fourth person in the last month who
has said the exact same thing. I was just talking
to a lady the other day about something. She said
the same thing. She was a director in Hollywood who
was on the Fox lot. And I, my wife couldn't
(12:24):
live in London. It's a bit dreary and gray. But
I grew up in the coast of Washington. I could
live in London tomorrow. If if I retire tomorrow and
just it's over, I would be in London in Chicago,
and you know, I would occasionally go for a sunny
week in Miami or something. But I for those listening,
if you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
It is historic.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their
taxi system, the food's gotten much better, the nightlife, the pubs.
It's just fantastic.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
I love it. It's every alley you can imagine, oh
history that happened there. It's you know, I met Stacey,
I met my wife in London. We were both students,
and I wanted to move back. For the past thirty years,
I'm dying to go back. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
And if you if you save up enough money and
you have a budget. Kensington, Paddington, maryle Born, Oh.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
My god, oh god, this we can do a whole
podcast just about we're to live in London. Oh I
love it all right. People would love that too.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I'm gonna take
Ohio State minus six against Texas, and I think Chip
Kelly's a big advantage for Ohio State this season. So
it's the first time college football playoffs or the NFL.
We're gonna play sixteen games, and I think over the
course of a season Ohio State we think about that
(13:51):
Michigan game, but they've really changed their offense, added layers
to it. And like the NFL, the Chiefs lost to
the Raid late last year, that's okay, Well, it's now
okay in college football you can be awful at home
against Michigan and get into the playoffs. I have watched
Ohio State's last two games and the games before Michigan.
(14:14):
I think they're unbeatable at the college level. I think
they're playing with a violence on defense, an explosion, and
a consistency on offense. I think Will Howard had one
awful game and a couple other average ones. I think
he's really good. And my problem with Texas is always
the same thing. They're a splash offense. They will score,
but they are not consistent penalties pass blocking when yours
(14:39):
is hot and cold. I think Ohio State is going
to run through this thing to the national championship. What
do the guys say, sharper square.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
It's a little bit square, and there's some recency bias
that is going into your thinking. I'm with you. I
think that the way Ohio State has played. We talked
about this heading into the playff the Ohio State fans
were so caught up in losing to Michigan. They had
kind of lost the forest for the trees and didn't
(15:08):
understand the new dynamic in college football, which is doesn't
matter who you lose to during the regular season. You
just got to get to the playoffs and then you
got to dominate, and then you can judge success based
on that. Winning or losing That one game against Michigan
is not the key factor in whether or not your
season has been successful. So kudos to Ryan Day, Kudos
(15:28):
to Chip Kelly, Kudos to that staff for turning around
their season and coming out of the playoffs into the
playoffs so hot, so dominant, doing things that they hadn't
been doing during the regular season. Really utilizing Jeremiah Smith
in a way that makes him look like a man
amongst boys. However, the same recency bias that is making
(15:51):
you think Ohio State is the right side is also
making this number leak a little bit higher than it should. Right.
The power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three,
maybe minus four. It's at minus six and as good
as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been
(16:11):
as good all season long. Some people will say the
best defense we've seen that defense and what they've done
quin yours. Yes, he's been inconsistent and we saw sort
of the peak of their inability to move the ball
offensively when they played Georgia in that SEC title game,
but their defense kept them in that game the entire time.
(16:34):
Wise guys will tell you, sure, quin Ewers hasn't been consistent,
but he did get hurt in the last couple of games.
He's been much much better than he had been as
he was coming back from the injury. So I do
think that the wise guys here are looking at Texas
because the number has gotten a little too big. It's
almost a touchdown. Six points. That's that's just a lot
(16:54):
of points.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So it's been a year in which I tend to
play underdogs, and it's been a favorite year. And so
I've had a really bad year betting NFL. And if
you look at college football and pro football this year,
it's look at the playoff. It's been the year of
the favorites. Now, some people tell you because of the
new kickoff in the NFL, where the ball can get
put at the thirty five yard line, it's giving good
(17:16):
quarterbacks an advantage over the course of a game on
possessions that they didn't necessarily need to win. All eight
divisions were won by the eight best quarterbacks in their division.
It had become a quarterback centric league a decade ago.
That was an edge the new kickoff rules that new
that the better quarterbacks didn't need. They were winning despite that,
(17:37):
and now they're winning in clear fashion. That said, I'm
going to take the Steelers plus nine and a half
against the Ravens. Zay Flowers is out. I know Pittsburgh
hasn't been playing well, but I I just watched Baltimore
klobber Pittsburgh. I do know this. Pittsburgh has a ton
(17:58):
of pride, very good on defense. Baltimore in the playoffs.
Memo to nobody to everybody that's watched them the last
six years. They tend to play better in the regular
season than the postseason. This number is out of whack
to me. I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half
sharper square.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
Yeah, it's sharp. The number got to ten and now
it got back down to nine and a half, so
there was some buyback there. I wouldn't be surprised if
it goes a little bit lower. It was much higher.
It was much lower. Earlier in the week it was
just seven and a half, and when it was seven
and a half, it got meed up quite a bit
by the wise guys. You mentioned a couple of really
important things, and this is something I'm going to spend
(18:41):
a lot of time in the offseason doing. Is really
taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff
rules on how teams covered or didn't cover, and did
it really favor the favorites, because I think there was
sort of some unintended consequence here. If you have a
good quarterback and you're at the third you complete two passes,
(19:01):
all of a sudden you're on the other side of
the field. If it's fourth and short, you might be
more inclined to go for it earlier in the game
on fourth down because you feel like, well, I might
have a chance to get back here more quickly because
of the way the kickoff rules are, and I also
think coaches are just more inclined to go for it
on fourth down. So a combination of the kickoff rules
(19:24):
and more aggressive decision making based on the analytics has
made it easier and more likely that favorites are going
to cover. Will that be a trend that goes forward,
We don't know yet. I want to have a year's
worth of data now that we have it, to look
at it and review, because I think it's fascinating and
I think it will be something that people have to
make adjustments for going into next year. On this game,
(19:46):
you mentioned the game they played on the twenty first
of December. That game was pretty close through about three quarters.
It was the last ninety seconds of the quarter when
things started to go out of control for the Steelers, right,
But one of the big factors in that game, Joey Porter,
missed the entire second half. When he was out, it
(20:07):
went from the Steelers having a little bit of wiggle
room to stay close to meeting to all of a
sudden be perfect, and they couldn't be perfect rustled through
that pick six. They lost thirty four to seventeen. So
this is a huge number in a game where people
are thinking about the Steelers, who, by the way, that
(20:29):
was the second game of what became a four game
losing streak in which they didn't score more than seventeen points.
The Ravens haven't scored fewer than thirty points since early December,
so there is a huge We're talking about recency bias
right with Texas and Iowa State. The recency bias in
this game is massively in favor of the Ravens, which
(20:52):
is when you want to play the Steelers. Also, this series, historically,
it's never this big even number and it's always a
game that's within the spread. So that's another reason why
you might want to think about the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
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Speaker 2 (22:32):
My favorite bet of the weekend is Eagles at home
minus four and a half. Jordan Love is not healthy,
Christian Watson is not available. Now they have depth at
wide receiver. But I thought before the concussion, I really
thought Jalen Hurts was playing for about a month straight.
I thought the offense was about as good as it
could be.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
I thought, the.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
First of all, they are good enough to just run
between the tackles, and they were doing that. Plus outside
the tackles, plush, throwing deep. Everything was humming. Green Bay
is a team Jordan Love us cut down on mistakes.
But the organization told you in the offseason we're gonna
we're gonna pivot off our identity. It's a little too
much Jordan Love and he can be.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
A bit reckless.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
So they become a team kind of built to play
with the lead power, run game, control the clock. You
will not do that against Philadelphia. Their best hope as
a good first quarter offense is to score early, control
the tempo. But I think this is a game where
Philadelphia will control the clock and Green Bay will be
(23:41):
forced into situations to make splash plays, and Jordan Love
and I like him, can get a little Sam Darnold
on you really fast. I like Philadelphia a lot in
this spot. Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
So the wise guys were with you when the line
opened at three and a half. There's a three and half.
I betted at three and a half. At four, I
bet it at four four and a half. It's getting into
that range where you're still going to find professional betters
who love the Eagles for everything you just said. But
Matt Lafleur has a lot of respect in the betting community.
(24:15):
He has been one of the better coaches against the
spread during his tenure, especially as a dog. They are
starting to see him as Mike Tomlin asking the way
he can scheme not just the first fifteen scripted plays,
but throughout a game and keep his team in a
very close game, especially like four and a half points
in a playoff game between these two teams is a lot.
(24:37):
So there is a portion of the betting community that
is looking to buy the Packers at plus four and
a half from an on the field scheme point of view,
everyone who's betting on the Eagles is doing it because
of what you just said. Their defensive line, Jalen Carter,
Jalen Carter. If you pull the players, which happens, you
(24:59):
are allowed to vote for All Pro as a player.
You can't vote for yourself or anyone on your team
to play with the second most votes with Jalen Carter, like,
he is just so good right now and so dominant
and the one thing we know the Packers want to do,
We've seen him do it all year. You see every
graphic for every game that is televised with the Packers,
(25:23):
some point in the first fifteen minutes of game time,
you're going to see a graphic about how well the
Packers do with Josh Jacobs and how dominant he is
running the ball early in the game, and then all
of a sudden, teams adjust, he doesn't run as well
later in the game. It's left up to Jordan Love
and they can't execute as well in the second half.
So yeah, if people are betting the Eagles, it's because
(25:44):
of what they can do defensively, not to mention, by
the way, how good they are in coverage from the
middle linebacker, from the linebacking position all the way through
their secondary. Just powerful. Like if I'm buying a Super
Bowl future right now, I might by the Eagles at
plus seven hundred. The Lions are about plus two to eighty.
Do I think there's that big of a delta between
(26:06):
the lines and the Eagles, given how good the Eagles
defense is, probably not.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I like the Bucks at home minus three not the
best of the line. But here's the issue. Baker Mayfield
will have a great run game behind him. The Commander's
run defense below average, The Buccaneers run offense is exceptional.
Jaden Daniels, a rookie quarterback on the road, will have
(26:31):
a run game that will struggle Vitavia, and the interior
d line of the Bucks is pretty impenetrable. So if
I go into a game and I get the veteran
quarterback at home, that will have the complement of a
strong run game that feels like about as good a
bet as you can have. Bucks minus three sharper square.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Totally sharp wise. Guys love this spot. They love a
ball in Baker Mayfield against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.
We've got a couple spots here rookie quarterbacks slash quarterbacks
who are playing in the postseason for the first time. Right,
we've got three spots. We've got sam Donold, we got
bow Knicks, we got Jayden Daniels. The wise guys love
(27:11):
the Bucks here because of Bucky Irving, because of the
running game, because they think the Commanders have been getting
by on Jaden Daniels and a little bit of luck,
and they've got six games. They won. In the final
seconds of the game, they were barely they were losing
to Trey Lance right with Jayden Daniels playing. It was
(27:32):
Jaden Daniels out of the game. Marcus Mariota comes in
like they were losing to the Eagles. They were going
to get run off the field against the Eagles until
Jalen Hurts got that concussion, and then they still needed
a miracle to win that game because Kenny Pickett played
well for about five minutes in that game, and it
was the most important five minutes when the Eagles had
(27:55):
to drive down the field and if not for Devonte
Smith drop, they win that game. So the Commanders have
been brilliant. Dan Quinn, great job. Jadan Daniels, rookie of
the year. But this is the playoffs are a different ballgame,
and the wise guys are seeing so much love from
the public for the commanders there on the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
So Greg co Sell said something on my show today,
and Nick Wright made fun of me this week. He
goes in my hurt hierarchy, I had the Rams one
spot below the Vikings, and he said, once you pick
the game, you're going to pick the Rams over the Vikings,
and you have the Vikings over the Rams. I said, no, no, no,
And then Greg co Sell showed up on my show
(28:37):
today and he said the Rams defensive line against the
Vikings offensive line, the film tells you Minnesota is in
trouble here. Yeah, and so the Rams are getting a
point and a half. I'm going to listen to Greg
co Sell. I'm going to go against my belief. I
do get the better quarterback. I think I get as
(28:59):
good a coach. I'm at home, and the Rams are
as healthy as any team in the league right now.
They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune. They
were beat up until, like I mean, like November first. Yeah,
Rams plus one and a half Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
The line moved from two and a half down to
one and a half. Honestly, it might be Rams minus
one by kickoffs. So I do encourage people, if you're
listening to this, try to get the Rams as an
underdog if you can. That scenario, a new quarterback to
the postseason versus a veteran quarterback that is historically at
(29:41):
a very high percentage advantageous from a cover point of
view to the veteran quarterback. And Matthew Stafford to me,
we've talked about this before. If there are any quarterback
I don't want to have the ball at the end
of the game if I have bet the other side,
Matthew Stafford is top five, right, Like it's it's Stafford,
it's Mahomes, it's Josh Allen, it's a little bit of
(30:04):
Lamar like those are the quarterbacks that you really are
a Fred Joe Burrow, like, those are the quarterbacks that
you're afraid of. Whise guys feel the same way. They
love Matthew Stafford. The thing that gets interesting, and this
helps you justify a little bit the hierarchy and why
you had the Rams one below the Vikings. If you
look at the Rams after that Bills game, where Matthew
(30:27):
Stafford was nearly the play perfect and they played perfect football,
and they played the kind of football that everyone who
has been backing the Rams and loves the Rams knows
they can play. It was a perfect Sean McVay game.
Kyron Williams has been brilliant this year at top three
running back in the NFL. Stafford has been very inconsistent
(30:49):
with Pookah Nakua and Cooper Cup Like. There have been
times where you think they're going to be brilliant and
they're good for like a series, and so they lose
to the Dolphins, They they get lucky beating the Niners,
they struggle against the Jets. Like these things happen over
the last month of the season. I think that's why
(31:09):
you might have had them below the Vikings. But now
the season has ended, the second season has begun, We're
going to find out do we have the Matthew Stafford
and Sean McVay and Kyron Williams that we all believe
they can be. Because that's what betters are doing. Professional
betters are saying, yes, we think they will have benefited
from having this past week off and that the Vikings
(31:30):
are starting on a downward trend, and Sam Donald might
be a little bit happy feed because his offensive line
isn't as good as it had been.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
There's always a game. I want you to explain to me.
It is very easy to talk yourself into Bills at
home minus eight and a half against a rookie quarterback.
But Sean Payton has been really good on the road
in the playoffs in his career. And I've watched Buffalo
at different times year. I've watched their defense get shreded.
(32:04):
I mean, you go back to the Rams game, that's
the best. The Rams offense has been all you're against anybody,
bad teams, good teams. They did whatever they wanted to
do against Buffalo. I watched Drake May and New England
give them trouble a couple of weeks ago. Something is
telling me eight and a half's too big, But god,
(32:25):
Buffalo could be such a freight train offensively tell me
where I should go here.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
So look the wise guys that are completely split on this.
It is being a stubborn, stubborn number. It was at
seven and a half on Sunday night when the playoffs
seedings were, you know, just about set for the AFC,
and it lasted for a hot minute and then it
(32:52):
was at eight and a half. And all these lines
this week they've been bouncing around. You know, the Chargers
in the Texans was three two and a half, three
two and a half, and the Rams has gone from
two and a half to one and a half, and
even the Steelers and the Ravens has gone from seven
and a half to eight and a half, nine, nine
and a half, ten back down in nine and a half.
This one was so stubborn it sat on eight and
(33:13):
a half literally until late Thursday morning. It finally finally
ticked up to nine. Because what's happening is there's money
coming in from professional betters on both sides for everything
you just said. They're afraid of this Bills defense. Don't
forget the Bills used to do things like blow out
(33:36):
the Dolphins, right they let the Dolphins stay in it.
This year, their defense has just not been very good.
The things that wise guys who want to bet the
Bills like is that Bonnicks has just been much worse
against zone than against man. The Bills play a lot
of zone. A rookie quarterback in the first playoff game
historically does not cover the spread. They feel like this
(33:56):
is a game where Josh Allen can get everything right,
and some times the Bills do blow out inferior opponents.
The Broncos have been terrible against teams with a winning
record one and seven this year minus thirty seven point differential.
Sean Payton scares a lot of people. He is. He's
one of those coaches, right Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, Matt
(34:17):
lafor Bill Belichick over the past generation, who guys do
not like to bet against. In a big number, I think,
what did it for me? I bet the Bills eight
and a half. I could be wrong, it's a fifty
to fifty split. What did it for me is I
think the Bills are going to be winning, and I
think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bonnigs in
(34:37):
a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws. And
we've seen it often enough this year. Go back to
that Bengals game. He threw the interception right to a
guy right and they had the game locked up. So
I think that could happen at the end of the game.
And that's a next factor for me to bet on
the Bills.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Finally, it's stay away game. For me, Chargers minus three
at the Texans, the Chargers win. Where do you land
on it?
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I bet the Chargers. I bet the Chargers at two
and a half. We talked a lot about this on
the show today, and the wise guys are lining up
behind Houston. I don't get it. It feels a little
bit trappy to me. The team that the Texans have
been all season. They're not going to be a different
team all of.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
A sudden, inconsistent week to week, half to half.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
All year they've been inconsistent. CJ. Stroud has been terrible
against two high safeties. That's what the Chargers like to play.
The strength of the Texans defense is the pressure they
can get from their defensive ends. The strength of the
Chargers offensive line are their two Pro Bowl offensive tackles.
(35:44):
Justin Herbert does not turn the ball over. To me,
the key to the season and winning and I have
been betting the Chargers consistently at the end of the season,
and we've seen this over and over again. It's why
I think favorites have been winning. Good quarterbacks You've talked
about that whole year, impeccable, unimpeachable decision making. More and
(36:07):
more it used to be. You know this, It used
to be if you're a head coach, your only job
on Sunday, manage the timeouts, be there to tell someone
if they're going to go four and fourth down. Those
decisions are becoming more important throughout the game. How you're
managing the last two minutes of a half, going for
it more often on fourth down. That used to be
(36:29):
a variance of two to three times a game. Now
it could be four or five times a game. Jim
Harbaugh just beat the Broncos by managing the end of
the first half in that game so well. That changed
the game for the Chargers and change the game for
the Broncos. So I don't want to bet against Jim
Harbough is a short favorite, even though it's on the
road and the wise guys are saying otherwise.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites. As always, Buddy,
I can't wait start starting tonight. We're doing this Thursday afternoon,
Starting tonight, I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State,
low scoring game, probably like the under good talking to.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
You, good, talking to you, Glad you saved Buddy.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
The volume
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
All right. Time to bring in Chad Millman, co host
of the Favorites. We always call this sharp or square,
all of our odds provided by DraftKings. We will start
because Chad and I were texting the other day on
the wildfires and the devastating damage in southern California. You know,
it's interesting, Chad. One of the things I try not
(00:31):
to fall into, and it's just rampant on the internet,
is making things political when they don't necessarily need to be,
you know, and the areas that were devastated, Malibu and Palisades,
specific Palisades. I've actually driven around a lot over the
last several years because I was looking to buy a
home in Pacific Palisades. And one of the reasons I didn't,
(00:54):
and my wife and I didn't is because the inaccessibility
of these windy roads and canyons. And I had said
to my wife, if I got into trouble or had
a heart attack, I mean it could take forty minutes
for somebody to get here you an ambulance. And so
you had this, You had four concurrent wildfires, eighty mile
(01:19):
an hour winds, which meant planes were not allowed to
fly over and drop water. So two things happened. Four
concurrent wildfires historically bad wins, not even in fire season,
and you couldn't use planes. It's like the world's worst tsunami.
(01:41):
You can blame the Coastguard. You can't prepare for it.
And if people don't know this area and Topanga Canyon
and Malibu, they have no idea what this place is
like like most people that work nine to five. You
can't live in Malibu because you can't get in and
out of it in the morning. So you know, people
are making this to completely. And I voted for Rick
(02:02):
Caruso over Karen Bass, you know, because I thought the
city needed somebody who was a development a builder for
their homeless issues. I thought he could really solve that
and he had a real detailed plan on this and
I got nothing four against Karen Bass. But sometimes things
happened historically and you can't prepare or solve it. And
(02:25):
I'm not saying I mean they had these water tanks available.
They blew through three of them, millions of gallons of water,
very very quickly. They could have had six of those reservoirs,
not three. It wouldn't have solved it. So it's one
of those things for people asking me, do we have
(02:45):
to make it political? Like this thing was historical. People
don't understand the day of those They told you a
day out in Los Angeles two days before there was
a weather warning and they put the list of how
strong the winds would be, and everybody in town was like, Oh,
this is trouble. This is big trouble. So there was
(03:06):
some sense it could be, it could be happening. But
and now there's arson. There's there's discussions of arson on
some of these later fires. But I'm okay. The firefighters
are amazing, but I don't think people understand this region.
This area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons
(03:27):
and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense on
the flat lower levels it made it very difficult to
get up and solve the upper tier, the upper parts
of it. So that's my rant on it. I'm fine.
I've got friends who have lost homes. It's gutting, it's awful,
it's terrible. But I just wish people sometimes not everything
(03:49):
would have to be about politics.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
This was a historically bad two days of four concurrent wildfires,
an eighty mile an hour winds.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
And four concurrent wildfires. By the way, if you look
at the maps, it's not isolated to four sections of
Greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other.
You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are
not on top of each other, and you're getting massive
(04:24):
fires in both places. I, like you, have been struck
by people who are saying this isn't global warming, this
is the City of Los Angeles' inability to manage the
catastrophe by not having water or not having police and
fire where they need to have them. It all strikes
(04:46):
me as a little disingenuous, because in either capacity, something
is causing this. It's not the police and fire and
lack of water that are causing eighty to one hundred
mile and how or winds. And I don't really understand
why it has to get political at all. Like you,
someone's got to get people out, someone's got to go
(05:09):
manage the fire. They are doing the best job they
possibly can. I'm always struck by when I'm driving around LA,
especially in the hills, how the entire area is constructed
like a Jenga set. Right. You see, there's a house
on every single inch of property going up these winding roads.
(05:32):
I know Palisades a little bit less and it's astonishing
to me the way the city and the hills, especially
houses have been constructed there. It's not surprising when you're
seeing an area that is so compact with housing. The
fire is jumping from one place to the next. There's
no opportunity for it to stop because there's so much
(05:54):
fuel there. It is as someone who's three, you know,
a thousand miles away and has a lot of friends
like you who are in the area, it's frightening to watch.
It's frightening to see the stories that are coming out
of there. It's frightened to see the images. It's it
really truly is apocalyptic. It's yeah, it's astonished.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
I ended up buying a home in an area that
is easy to access, get in and out of, about
you know, five miles away from Palisades, but it's a
jungle when you drive through it, it's this lush, gorgeous trees,
brush canyons. It's it's my first take driving through it was, oh,
(06:32):
I can't live here. It's just too hard to access.
So you're asking these brave and courageous firefighters and these
people of La County, who are remarkably courageous, strident, tough.
You're asking them you can't use planes. The winds are
eighty miles an hour. People are running out of their cars.
(06:52):
It was it was a scene from an awful movie.
And listen, it's it's just when you get these natural disasters. Boy,
everybody's looking for perfection and everybody's pointing fingers. There are
so many people, a thousand homes. I mean, you will
(07:13):
look at area aerial footage now, you cannot believe, Chad,
what it looks like. It is literally like a zip code,
every house burnt down.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
It's awful. It looks like it looks like what we
see when we get images from war torn countries where
it's just buildings and cars that are completely burned out,
except it's in the middle of one of the wealthiest
areas in the entire country. It's it's astonishing and devastating
(07:44):
to look at it, truly is. It's stunning. Yeah. So
just just I'm glad you're okay. I'm glad you're okay.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Yeah, And I know this is a somber tone, but
I just you know, I thought about this today. People,
I've gotten I've gotten fifty texts in the last two days,
and I'm more of the lucky I'm one of the
lucky key ones I've got. You know, some kids around
that you know, have kind of been on pins and needles.
But it is, uh, there's there are some heroes and
all this stuff because there were houses.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
It ever make you want to leave California.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
You know, my wife's not a fan for a lot
of reasons. Uh the expense. You know, it's every place
has their issues, as that's pretty been pretty well documented.
I have purchased a place in Chicago, and so I'm
spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife
(08:34):
has given so much to me in our relationship and
sacrificed and I've never sacrificed for her and living by
her family, and I love the people that's out in California.
There's so many things I love about it. But you know,
my wife's not as big a fan, and she misses
her sister and her family in the Midwest. And by
the way, I love Chicago and I still love la
(08:56):
but you know, it's just just just one of those
things where I don't want to ever use a singular
reason for being mobile. I like Connecticut. You know, people
always used to poke fun at Connecticut. It's boring, and
I'm like.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
I was there a decade. It was fine.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
I had great friends, great neighbors, high schools were great.
My kids loved it. So I think there's a lot
of places in this country to live. And I think
the people in every place I've lived in Nevada, Oregon, Washington, California, Connecticut.
I spent a lot of time in Rhode Island. Everywhere
I go people are great. Sometimes the politicians aren't, sometimes
(09:32):
the regulations aren't, but the people are amazing everywhere I go.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Well, look, you know how much I left Chicago as
a Chicago in or you know, kid from the suburbs
of Chicago. I did see your picture the other day
wearing your new fancy winner coat, and I felt like
he needs to wear a hat, Like it's you can't
just go with a coat. You got a layer and
you got to wear a hat. Yeah I did. It's
(09:58):
really important, especially like we're you live in the city.
Where are your places? You got wind tunnels coming down there.
I know that's dangerous right there.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
I know I wore a hat later in the day. Okay,
let's start.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
I will tell you one thing and you'll appreciate this.
I know people don't want to hear weather talk, but
I will. I will tell you one story and people
will like this. So you know, when we on the
Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network, we do a contest
every year, a season long pick of contest. We give
away one hundred thousand dollars over the course of the year.
Don't worry, it's not your money, Colin. I just want
you to know we're not giving away your money, but
we do give away. The winner of the season long
(10:31):
contest gets forty thousand dollars first place prize. So we
had the winner on the show today. The winner, by
the way, discovered the Favorites podcast because he's a fan
of Colin Cowherd and over the years he has seen
me either on television with you at ESPN or on
this show with you through the Volume and the various
things that you've been kind enough to have me on
(10:52):
and now with The Favorites on the Volume Podcast Network.
So that's how we discovered us. His job, he is
a farmer in bow Bell's, North Dakota, which is a
speck of a town with three hundred people. And he
lives outside bow Bells, which is within the Canadian border
shouting distance, right. So of course I'm like, you don't
(11:13):
get I said to him, you don't get days off
as a farmer. And North Dakota gets cold. What kind
of coat are you wearing it to stay warm? And
so we went through he's layering. He's got a good
car heart coat. That's how he stays warm when he's
in the tractor and he's watching red Zone while he's
making bets. That's how he's doing it. I feel like
you need to make sure you're layering. I just want
(11:34):
you to be comfortable when you're in Chicago. I don't
want you to find any reason.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
People also like those two cities in the country get
criticized more but are more fun to be in than
Los Angeles. To Chicago, La can be a ball. I
absolutely love Chicago. I've said my favorite city in the
world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Dude, my favorite city in the world is London. Oh,
my second favorite city is Chicago.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, you're the fourth person in the last month who
has said the exact same thing. I was just talking
to a lady the other day about something. She said
the same thing. She was a director in Hollywood who
was on the Fox lot. And I, my wife couldn't
(12:24):
live in London. It's a bit dreary and gray. But
I grew up in the coast of Washington. I could
live in London tomorrow. If if I retire tomorrow and
just it's over, I would be in London in Chicago,
and you know, I would occasionally go for a sunny
week in Miami or something. But I for those listening,
if you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
It is historic.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their
taxi system, the food's gotten much better, the nightlife, the pubs.
It's just fantastic.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
I love it. It's every alley you can imagine, oh
history that happened there. It's you know, I met Stacey,
I met my wife in London. We were both students,
and I wanted to move back. For the past thirty years,
I'm dying to go back. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
And if you if you save up enough money and
you have a budget. Kensington, Paddington, maryle Born, Oh.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
My god, oh god, this we can do a whole
podcast just about we're to live in London. Oh I
love it all right. People would love that too.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I'm gonna take
Ohio State minus six against Texas, and I think Chip
Kelly's a big advantage for Ohio State this season. So
it's the first time college football playoffs or the NFL.
We're gonna play sixteen games, and I think over the
course of a season Ohio State we think about that
(13:51):
Michigan game, but they've really changed their offense, added layers
to it. And like the NFL, the Chiefs lost to
the Raid late last year, that's okay, Well, it's now
okay in college football you can be awful at home
against Michigan and get into the playoffs. I have watched
Ohio State's last two games and the games before Michigan.
(14:14):
I think they're unbeatable at the college level. I think
they're playing with a violence on defense, an explosion, and
a consistency on offense. I think Will Howard had one
awful game and a couple other average ones. I think
he's really good. And my problem with Texas is always
the same thing. They're a splash offense. They will score,
but they are not consistent penalties pass blocking when yours
(14:39):
is hot and cold. I think Ohio State is going
to run through this thing to the national championship. What
do the guys say, sharper square.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
It's a little bit square, and there's some recency bias
that is going into your thinking. I'm with you. I
think that the way Ohio State has played. We talked
about this heading into the playff the Ohio State fans
were so caught up in losing to Michigan. They had
kind of lost the forest for the trees and didn't
(15:08):
understand the new dynamic in college football, which is doesn't
matter who you lose to during the regular season. You
just got to get to the playoffs and then you
got to dominate, and then you can judge success based
on that. Winning or losing That one game against Michigan
is not the key factor in whether or not your
season has been successful. So kudos to Ryan Day, Kudos
(15:28):
to Chip Kelly, Kudos to that staff for turning around
their season and coming out of the playoffs into the
playoffs so hot, so dominant, doing things that they hadn't
been doing during the regular season. Really utilizing Jeremiah Smith
in a way that makes him look like a man
amongst boys. However, the same recency bias that is making
(15:51):
you think Ohio State is the right side is also
making this number leak a little bit higher than it should. Right.
The power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three,
maybe minus four. It's at minus six and as good
as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been
(16:11):
as good all season long. Some people will say the
best defense we've seen that defense and what they've done
quin yours. Yes, he's been inconsistent and we saw sort
of the peak of their inability to move the ball
offensively when they played Georgia in that SEC title game,
but their defense kept them in that game the entire time.
(16:34):
Wise guys will tell you, sure, quin Ewers hasn't been consistent,
but he did get hurt in the last couple of games.
He's been much much better than he had been as
he was coming back from the injury. So I do
think that the wise guys here are looking at Texas
because the number has gotten a little too big. It's
almost a touchdown. Six points. That's that's just a lot
(16:54):
of points.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So it's been a year in which I tend to
play underdogs, and it's been a favorite year. And so
I've had a really bad year betting NFL. And if
you look at college football and pro football this year,
it's look at the playoff. It's been the year of
the favorites. Now, some people tell you because of the
new kickoff in the NFL, where the ball can get
put at the thirty five yard line, it's giving good
(17:16):
quarterbacks an advantage over the course of a game on
possessions that they didn't necessarily need to win. All eight
divisions were won by the eight best quarterbacks in their division.
It had become a quarterback centric league a decade ago.
That was an edge the new kickoff rules that new
that the better quarterbacks didn't need. They were winning despite that,
(17:37):
and now they're winning in clear fashion. That said, I'm
going to take the Steelers plus nine and a half
against the Ravens. Zay Flowers is out. I know Pittsburgh
hasn't been playing well, but I I just watched Baltimore
klobber Pittsburgh. I do know this. Pittsburgh has a ton
(17:58):
of pride, very good on defense. Baltimore in the playoffs.
Memo to nobody to everybody that's watched them the last
six years. They tend to play better in the regular
season than the postseason. This number is out of whack
to me. I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half
sharper square.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
Yeah, it's sharp. The number got to ten and now
it got back down to nine and a half, so
there was some buyback there. I wouldn't be surprised if
it goes a little bit lower. It was much higher.
It was much lower. Earlier in the week it was
just seven and a half, and when it was seven
and a half, it got meed up quite a bit
by the wise guys. You mentioned a couple of really
important things, and this is something I'm going to spend
(18:41):
a lot of time in the offseason doing. Is really
taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff
rules on how teams covered or didn't cover, and did
it really favor the favorites, because I think there was
sort of some unintended consequence here. If you have a
good quarterback and you're at the third you complete two passes,
(19:01):
all of a sudden you're on the other side of
the field. If it's fourth and short, you might be
more inclined to go for it earlier in the game
on fourth down because you feel like, well, I might
have a chance to get back here more quickly because
of the way the kickoff rules are, and I also
think coaches are just more inclined to go for it
on fourth down. So a combination of the kickoff rules
(19:24):
and more aggressive decision making based on the analytics has
made it easier and more likely that favorites are going
to cover. Will that be a trend that goes forward,
We don't know yet. I want to have a year's
worth of data now that we have it, to look
at it and review, because I think it's fascinating and
I think it will be something that people have to
make adjustments for going into next year. On this game,
(19:46):
you mentioned the game they played on the twenty first
of December. That game was pretty close through about three quarters.
It was the last ninety seconds of the quarter when
things started to go out of control for the Steelers, right,
But one of the big factors in that game, Joey Porter,
missed the entire second half. When he was out, it
(20:07):
went from the Steelers having a little bit of wiggle
room to stay close to meeting to all of a
sudden be perfect, and they couldn't be perfect rustled through
that pick six. They lost thirty four to seventeen. So
this is a huge number in a game where people
are thinking about the Steelers, who, by the way, that
(20:29):
was the second game of what became a four game
losing streak in which they didn't score more than seventeen points.
The Ravens haven't scored fewer than thirty points since early December,
so there is a huge We're talking about recency bias
right with Texas and Iowa State. The recency bias in
this game is massively in favor of the Ravens, which
(20:52):
is when you want to play the Steelers. Also, this series, historically,
it's never this big even number and it's always a
game that's within the spread. So that's another reason why
you might want to think about the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
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Speaker 2 (22:32):
My favorite bet of the weekend is Eagles at home
minus four and a half. Jordan Love is not healthy,
Christian Watson is not available. Now they have depth at
wide receiver. But I thought before the concussion, I really
thought Jalen Hurts was playing for about a month straight.
I thought the offense was about as good as it
could be.
Speaker 1 (22:53):
I thought, the.
Speaker 2 (22:55):
First of all, they are good enough to just run
between the tackles, and they were doing that. Plus outside
the tackles, plush, throwing deep. Everything was humming. Green Bay
is a team Jordan Love us cut down on mistakes.
But the organization told you in the offseason we're gonna
we're gonna pivot off our identity. It's a little too
much Jordan Love and he can be.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
A bit reckless.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
So they become a team kind of built to play
with the lead power, run game, control the clock. You
will not do that against Philadelphia. Their best hope as
a good first quarter offense is to score early, control
the tempo. But I think this is a game where
Philadelphia will control the clock and Green Bay will be
(23:41):
forced into situations to make splash plays, and Jordan Love
and I like him, can get a little Sam Darnold
on you really fast. I like Philadelphia a lot in
this spot. Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (23:54):
So the wise guys were with you when the line
opened at three and a half. There's a three and half.
I betted at three and a half. At four, I
bet it at four four and a half. It's getting into
that range where you're still going to find professional betters
who love the Eagles for everything you just said. But
Matt Lafleur has a lot of respect in the betting community.
(24:15):
He has been one of the better coaches against the
spread during his tenure, especially as a dog. They are
starting to see him as Mike Tomlin asking the way
he can scheme not just the first fifteen scripted plays,
but throughout a game and keep his team in a
very close game, especially like four and a half points
in a playoff game between these two teams is a lot.
(24:37):
So there is a portion of the betting community that
is looking to buy the Packers at plus four and
a half from an on the field scheme point of view,
everyone who's betting on the Eagles is doing it because
of what you just said. Their defensive line, Jalen Carter,
Jalen Carter. If you pull the players, which happens, you
(24:59):
are allowed to vote for All Pro as a player.
You can't vote for yourself or anyone on your team
to play with the second most votes with Jalen Carter, like,
he is just so good right now and so dominant
and the one thing we know the Packers want to do,
We've seen him do it all year. You see every
graphic for every game that is televised with the Packers,
(25:23):
some point in the first fifteen minutes of game time,
you're going to see a graphic about how well the
Packers do with Josh Jacobs and how dominant he is
running the ball early in the game, and then all
of a sudden, teams adjust, he doesn't run as well
later in the game. It's left up to Jordan Love
and they can't execute as well in the second half.
So yeah, if people are betting the Eagles, it's because
(25:44):
of what they can do defensively, not to mention, by
the way, how good they are in coverage from the
middle linebacker, from the linebacking position all the way through
their secondary. Just powerful. Like if I'm buying a Super
Bowl future right now, I might by the Eagles at
plus seven hundred. The Lions are about plus two to eighty.
Do I think there's that big of a delta between
(26:06):
the lines and the Eagles, given how good the Eagles
defense is, probably not.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I like the Bucks at home minus three not the
best of the line. But here's the issue. Baker Mayfield
will have a great run game behind him. The Commander's
run defense below average, The Buccaneers run offense is exceptional.
Jaden Daniels, a rookie quarterback on the road, will have
(26:31):
a run game that will struggle Vitavia, and the interior
d line of the Bucks is pretty impenetrable. So if
I go into a game and I get the veteran
quarterback at home, that will have the complement of a
strong run game that feels like about as good a
bet as you can have. Bucks minus three sharper square.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Totally sharp wise. Guys love this spot. They love a
ball in Baker Mayfield against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.
We've got a couple spots here rookie quarterbacks slash quarterbacks
who are playing in the postseason for the first time. Right,
we've got three spots. We've got sam Donold, we got
bow Knicks, we got Jayden Daniels. The wise guys love
(27:11):
the Bucks here because of Bucky Irving, because of the
running game, because they think the Commanders have been getting
by on Jaden Daniels and a little bit of luck,
and they've got six games. They won. In the final
seconds of the game, they were barely they were losing
to Trey Lance right with Jayden Daniels playing. It was
(27:32):
Jaden Daniels out of the game. Marcus Mariota comes in
like they were losing to the Eagles. They were going
to get run off the field against the Eagles until
Jalen Hurts got that concussion, and then they still needed
a miracle to win that game because Kenny Pickett played
well for about five minutes in that game, and it
was the most important five minutes when the Eagles had
(27:55):
to drive down the field and if not for Devonte
Smith drop, they win that game. So the Commanders have
been brilliant. Dan Quinn, great job. Jadan Daniels, rookie of
the year. But this is the playoffs are a different ballgame,
and the wise guys are seeing so much love from
the public for the commanders there on the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
So Greg co Sell said something on my show today,
and Nick Wright made fun of me this week. He
goes in my hurt hierarchy, I had the Rams one
spot below the Vikings, and he said, once you pick
the game, you're going to pick the Rams over the Vikings,
and you have the Vikings over the Rams. I said, no, no, no,
And then Greg co Sell showed up on my show
(28:37):
today and he said the Rams defensive line against the
Vikings offensive line, the film tells you Minnesota is in
trouble here. Yeah, and so the Rams are getting a
point and a half. I'm going to listen to Greg
co Sell. I'm going to go against my belief. I
do get the better quarterback. I think I get as
(28:59):
good a coach. I'm at home, and the Rams are
as healthy as any team in the league right now.
They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune. They
were beat up until, like I mean, like November first. Yeah,
Rams plus one and a half Sharper square, totally sharp.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
The line moved from two and a half down to
one and a half. Honestly, it might be Rams minus
one by kickoffs. So I do encourage people, if you're
listening to this, try to get the Rams as an
underdog if you can. That scenario, a new quarterback to
the postseason versus a veteran quarterback that is historically at
(29:41):
a very high percentage advantageous from a cover point of
view to the veteran quarterback. And Matthew Stafford to me,
we've talked about this before. If there are any quarterback
I don't want to have the ball at the end
of the game if I have bet the other side,
Matthew Stafford is top five, right, Like it's it's Stafford,
it's Mahomes, it's Josh Allen, it's a little bit of
(30:04):
Lamar like those are the quarterbacks that you really are
a Fred Joe Burrow, like, those are the quarterbacks that
you're afraid of. Whise guys feel the same way. They
love Matthew Stafford. The thing that gets interesting, and this
helps you justify a little bit the hierarchy and why
you had the Rams one below the Vikings. If you
look at the Rams after that Bills game, where Matthew
(30:27):
Stafford was nearly the play perfect and they played perfect football,
and they played the kind of football that everyone who
has been backing the Rams and loves the Rams knows
they can play. It was a perfect Sean McVay game.
Kyron Williams has been brilliant this year at top three
running back in the NFL. Stafford has been very inconsistent
(30:49):
with Pookah Nakua and Cooper Cup Like. There have been
times where you think they're going to be brilliant and
they're good for like a series, and so they lose
to the Dolphins, They they get lucky beating the Niners,
they struggle against the Jets. Like these things happen over
the last month of the season. I think that's why
(31:09):
you might have had them below the Vikings. But now
the season has ended, the second season has begun, We're
going to find out do we have the Matthew Stafford
and Sean McVay and Kyron Williams that we all believe
they can be. Because that's what betters are doing. Professional
betters are saying, yes, we think they will have benefited
from having this past week off and that the Vikings
(31:30):
are starting on a downward trend, and Sam Donald might
be a little bit happy feed because his offensive line
isn't as good as it had been.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
There's always a game. I want you to explain to me.
It is very easy to talk yourself into Bills at
home minus eight and a half against a rookie quarterback.
But Sean Payton has been really good on the road
in the playoffs in his career. And I've watched Buffalo
at different times year. I've watched their defense get shreded.
(32:04):
I mean, you go back to the Rams game, that's
the best. The Rams offense has been all you're against anybody,
bad teams, good teams. They did whatever they wanted to
do against Buffalo. I watched Drake May and New England
give them trouble a couple of weeks ago. Something is
telling me eight and a half's too big, But god,
(32:25):
Buffalo could be such a freight train offensively tell me
where I should go here.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
So look the wise guys that are completely split on this.
It is being a stubborn, stubborn number. It was at
seven and a half on Sunday night when the playoffs
seedings were, you know, just about set for the AFC,
and it lasted for a hot minute and then it
(32:52):
was at eight and a half. And all these lines
this week they've been bouncing around. You know, the Chargers
in the Texans was three two and a half, three
two and a half, and the Rams has gone from
two and a half to one and a half, and
even the Steelers and the Ravens has gone from seven
and a half to eight and a half, nine, nine
and a half, ten back down in nine and a half.
This one was so stubborn it sat on eight and
(33:13):
a half literally until late Thursday morning. It finally finally
ticked up to nine. Because what's happening is there's money
coming in from professional betters on both sides for everything
you just said. They're afraid of this Bills defense. Don't
forget the Bills used to do things like blow out
(33:36):
the Dolphins, right they let the Dolphins stay in it.
This year, their defense has just not been very good.
The things that wise guys who want to bet the
Bills like is that Bonnicks has just been much worse
against zone than against man. The Bills play a lot
of zone. A rookie quarterback in the first playoff game
historically does not cover the spread. They feel like this
(33:56):
is a game where Josh Allen can get everything right,
and some times the Bills do blow out inferior opponents.
The Broncos have been terrible against teams with a winning
record one and seven this year minus thirty seven point differential.
Sean Payton scares a lot of people. He is. He's
one of those coaches, right Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, Matt
(34:17):
lafor Bill Belichick over the past generation, who guys do
not like to bet against. In a big number, I think,
what did it for me? I bet the Bills eight
and a half. I could be wrong, it's a fifty
to fifty split. What did it for me is I
think the Bills are going to be winning, and I
think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bonnigs in
(34:37):
a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws. And
we've seen it often enough this year. Go back to
that Bengals game. He threw the interception right to a
guy right and they had the game locked up. So
I think that could happen at the end of the game.
And that's a next factor for me to bet on
the Bills.
Speaker 2 (34:56):
Finally, it's stay away game. For me, Chargers minus three
at the Texans, the Chargers win. Where do you land
on it?
Speaker 1 (35:04):
I bet the Chargers. I bet the Chargers at two
and a half. We talked a lot about this on
the show today, and the wise guys are lining up
behind Houston. I don't get it. It feels a little
bit trappy to me. The team that the Texans have
been all season. They're not going to be a different
team all of.
Speaker 2 (35:21):
A sudden, inconsistent week to week, half to half.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
All year they've been inconsistent. CJ. Stroud has been terrible
against two high safeties. That's what the Chargers like to play.
The strength of the Texans defense is the pressure they
can get from their defensive ends. The strength of the
Chargers offensive line are their two Pro Bowl offensive tackles.
(35:44):
Justin Herbert does not turn the ball over. To me,
the key to the season and winning and I have
been betting the Chargers consistently at the end of the season,
and we've seen this over and over again. It's why
I think favorites have been winning. Good quarterbacks You've talked
about that whole year, impeccable, unimpeachable decision making. More and
(36:07):
more it used to be. You know this, It used
to be if you're a head coach, your only job
on Sunday, manage the timeouts, be there to tell someone
if they're going to go four and fourth down. Those
decisions are becoming more important throughout the game. How you're
managing the last two minutes of a half, going for
it more often on fourth down. That used to be
(36:29):
a variance of two to three times a game. Now
it could be four or five times a game. Jim
Harbaugh just beat the Broncos by managing the end of
the first half in that game so well. That changed
the game for the Chargers and change the game for
the Broncos. So I don't want to bet against Jim
Harbough is a short favorite, even though it's on the
road and the wise guys are saying otherwise.
Speaker 2 (36:50):
Sharper Square Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites. As always, Buddy,
I can't wait start starting tonight. We're doing this Thursday afternoon,
Starting tonight, I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State,
low scoring game, probably like the under good talking to.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
You, good, talking to you, Glad you saved Buddy.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
The volume
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