Colin reacts to the Chargers beating the Broncos on Thursday Night Football! (4:00) He tips his cap to Justin Herbert for an elite performance, but also gives kudos to Sean Payton and the Broncos for exceeding expectations this season. He also weighs in on the firestorm he started with his rant about the changes the NBA needs to make in the face of declining TV ratings (12:00).
Then, he does a deep dive on the Chicago Bears, calls them a “broken franchise” and has the perfect coach in mind to fix them (21:45). He also reviews the terrific 2024 class of rookie quarterbacks and why the quarterback talent entering the league has closed the gap between the “haves” and “have not’s” (32:00).
Finally, Chad Millman of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 16 of the NFL slate plus the College Football Playoff!
43:30- Texans vs Chiefs
45:00 - Steelers vs Ravens
47:30 - 49ers vs Dolphins
48:45 - Colts vs Titans
51:45 - Bears vs Lions
54:15 - Rams vs Jets
56:30 - Packers vs Saints
59:30 - Bills vs Patriots
1:06:00 - Indiana vs Notre Dame
1:08:30 - Texas vs Clemson
1:10:30 - Ohio State vs Tennessee
1:13:15 - Transfer portal hurting depth at blue chip programs
1:18:00 - Chad’s Favorite NFL Bets
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
#Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
poured one tonight just for this thirty four to twenty
seven chargers. When whoever won, I was happy, although I
did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
I've said this is when I started the volume. One
(01:31):
of the things I really really like. When I was
in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing
and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
you get older and older, and you have kids, and
you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
hopefully you have something in you that you want to
see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
(01:53):
the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
still he is still learning. But in that first half,
that was all on script, those first two or three series,
and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
(02:14):
he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
both of these guys, these two teams last year were
thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
(02:34):
right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
you land Jannis or jokicch it takes years and years
(02:55):
to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
I mean, there's just some teams that can't afford it, right.
But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
bottom three team in the league. To meet O'Ryan c J.
Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
were one of the three worst teams in the league.
This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
(03:15):
got Joe Alt and Laddi McConkie. No question upgrades, but
they're so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle.
Are the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
(03:38):
They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
and you know there's still a draft away. They're about
six players away. They needed to tight end another running back,
although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run of the game.
But it just shows you why the NFL is king.
You just either get a coach, get a quarterback, or
Houston get both and you're a playoff team. And it's
(04:00):
just I've always called the NFL the League of hope.
But let's first start with the Chargers. They were what
did al Michael say tonight? I can't believe al Michaels
is this good at eighty. The guy is such a
talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick, and
he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
(04:22):
He just signed for next year, by the way, but
you know that he had said at one point the
Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
decided by three points or less, they just don't know
how to win, you know, they just just don't know
how to win. And they take this team at the
end of last year. It was a disaster at the
end of the year, could have been the worst thing
in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact
(04:42):
half the defense and guys in the back end are hurt.
Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
banged up, and look at them. And it was such
a testament to Harbaugh's coaching, because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
(05:03):
a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching. Smart adjustments.
Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
(05:27):
of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
that can mentor you cares about your well being and
(05:48):
you know, in the job market, and they will make
the best out of you. And I feel like that's
what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
draft away, right. Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
But in the end of the half sequence was so
(06:08):
perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Jim Harbaugh is competing to the very end. And some
people say he's weird, he's intense. Okay, it's the NFL.
Belichick was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So
into the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
and that's just Harriball battling to the end. So there's
(06:31):
a big difference between going in down what they would
have been and then the field goal. You got a
real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
kind of momentum into the locker room changed the energy
and the juice, And I thought Denver had all the
juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
(06:52):
of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way,
Jesus and he again he is working with return guys,
(07:15):
a first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman.
Back up running back Herbert in the second half eleven
fifteen two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point
eight Jesus. I mean, it's just, it is just I
just isn't it crazy?
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Is that?
Speaker 1 (07:34):
You know Sean Payton takes this shipwreck Denver. I think
I like their GM, but it's a mess. They're in
dead cap hell in the AFC. And before the season started,
Vegas adam at five and a half wins, and I
thought that, I said it was my favorite double wind toadal.
I thought they would double that. I thought they'd get
in kind of the nine eight nine category. They're gonna
make the playoffs. They're in with nine wins now, and
(07:56):
they'll they'll win one of their final three games, and
I think their cap of winning a playoff game. I
don't think Denver's capable of winning two or three, but
I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I
feel the same way about the Chargers. They kind of
have to win one way. You know, they've got to
have Herbert be superman, They've got to have everybody healthy.
Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh, Denver and the Chargers those
(08:18):
are one playoff win teams. Herbert finishes the night about
when is it twenty three to thirty one? Three hundred yards.
It is. It's just you know, remember a couple of
years ago and the media, you know, the media went
to a weird thing where it was very sensitive. And
(08:38):
I remember about three or four years ago, and the
media was just saying, Oh, these Thursday night games, they're
unfair to players. Oh give me a break. So I
called players, I talked to coaches, and the players I
talked to are like, we love Thursday night games. Usually
it's a division rival, so you don't have to do
a ton of film study. Like tonight, you're playing somebody
(08:59):
you know, and it's usually a division game, so the
travel isn't too long. It's a two hour flight somewhere,
and you don't hit during that week, and then you
get almost a second by week. And the media was
freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had some sensational
Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought it would
be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so crisp in
(09:22):
the first half. Now in the second half, Denver, I mean,
let's face it, they aided the Chargers on that long drive.
They had a couple of guys off sides. That was
a huge break there. Were two big moments in the
game for me. That the end of the halftime kick,
and then Denver had a series of penalties as the
Chargers got that big drive which eventually ended up with
(09:43):
Herbert making that throw for a touchdown in the end zone.
But they have three or four defensive penalties and that
really gave them. They really seized momentum and you could
hear the crowd a little bit getting into it, and god,
that was just fun. Although my phone dranking, it's probably
justin Herbert. I'm sorry to be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Okay?
(10:04):
So a big topic of conversation before I get the
Chad Millman has been the NBA ratings this week, and
I saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league
needs to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
(10:26):
on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
the consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
I mean good hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
our players are miserable. Twitter is making them miserable. Can
(10:48):
you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
(11:09):
asked about the All Star Game changes and he dropped
an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
(11:29):
So that's the championship coach and the best player in
the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
to get too into it. So the people that are
criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
(11:50):
anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
change the menu. Rob Manford did, and Adam Silver needs
to for the record, when you make changes to your menu,
to your business, the consumer always responds, ohways, I mean
baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
(12:12):
two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
the NBA. People at criticize it. Watch it. I watch
(12:34):
it all the time. I don't really get into it
until the football season's done. But you know by February,
you know, you have the two weeks before the Super Bowl.
I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty minutes a night.
So I thought it was interesting that Joe Missoula and
Lebron James both came out and were critical esthetically of
the current product. It's not a good watch and when
(12:56):
something falls off the cliff in two years, three years,
got to look in the mirror. It's not about celebrating
it's about auditing. That's something baseball did recently and something
the NFL does annually. NFL is King for a lot
of reasons. One of the reasons the ability to self police,
(13:17):
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Speaker 4 (14:37):
Slash bball. Let's talk about the Chicago Bears. So they
lost to the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
I didn't think Sam Darnold played particularly well, but he's
getting the ball to TJ. Hawkinson, Jordan Addison, and Justin Jefferson,
so he's getting the ball to the right people. I
thought he was a little high, missed some throws, but
overall Minnesota was picked for third or fourth. I mean,
it's all gravy at this point. First, let's start with
the Chicago Bears. There are a couple franchises in this
(15:10):
league that are just broken, and I think the Chicago
Bears are top of the list. It's a broken franchise.
The mccaskeys are arguably the worst owners in the league,
oldest and among the poorest. Really out of touch. Kevin
Warrens the president. I've been told for years, highly political.
(15:32):
Charles Robinson of Yahoo reporting today that you know somebody
that seeks power and to retain power. That's a little
what I was told years ago. Don't know him personally,
but that's what I've been told from two sources. I
trust Ryan Poles is young. You know, I'm hit and
miss on polls. I love the Monte Montes sweat deal,
(15:56):
the DJ Moore deal. I don't think he's the problem
in the organization. I think Ryan Poles is struggling with
the people above him. But a great example of the dysfunction.
So Matt Ebraflus, a defensive coach, was fired. Well, defensive
coaches don't have the offensive connections that offensive coaches do.
(16:20):
I mean, there is a reason Andy Reid keeps hiring
really good offensive coaches right like their offense. Now, Reid
does most of the play calling, but Doug Peterson got
a head coaching job. Matt Naggy got a head coaching job,
and by the way, got Mitt Trubisky to the playoffs twice.
So you can say all you want about Matt Naggy.
You die for Matt Naggy now in Chicago. And then
(16:43):
there's a reason that Belichick had to rely on Josh McDaniels.
When Josh left. You know, Bill was scrambling to find
an offensive coordinator, but Sean McVay can find one every
two years. So Thomas Brown was under Shane Waldron. Well,
Eberflus doesn't have a lot of great offensive connections, clearly
because when Shane Waldron left Chicago of Seattle, he was criticized.
(17:07):
They rolled their eyes at him. He went to Chicago,
it was a mess with Caleb Williams. Then Thomas Brown,
who's a bright young guy. He coached with the Rams,
but you know he is an interim head coach. He's had.
This is his third different job this season with the Bears.
I mean, HR is probably asking him to slow down
so they can get his paycheck, right, I'm not going
(17:29):
to blame him, but eber flu selected this staff and
it's not very good. I think it's a broken franchise.
And you know, my take is, if you're really honest
about it, you know what they remind me of. I
was thinking about it tonight. They remind me a lot.
The Bears are the Chargers last season where they had
a talented young quarterback, some really nice pieces, but major
(17:53):
cultural issues and what did they do. They went and
got Jim Harbaugh to fix it. And that's why Mike
frabels the higher Vrabel is Dan Campbell less, reckless, He's
Jim Harbaugh, but to this point hasn't been as successful.
He's a really smart guy. He's a culture changer. There's
(18:14):
no bullshit with him. He's very honest and very upfront,
and he got to an AFC championship, you know, with Tennessee.
So I just think Vrabel's the call here. Vrabel, you know,
and I've talked to Mike about this. Vrabel is the
kind of guy that will come in and the only
(18:34):
thing that would get in his way is a Kevin
Warren level executive that was trying to retain power. If
Frabel has some saying personnel, he's pretty good at that
and has a great relationship with the general manager who
he can answer to and trust I think Rabel could
win immediately. I think you know again, I'll say this,
(18:56):
the Bears have a Chargers feel now. The Chargers are
not going to go from what they were last year
to a super Bowl. They need another draft. They have
to hit on another receiver, maybe another tight end, another
running back. They need more pieces offensively, and the Bears
with Rabel are not winning a super Bowl, especially out
of that division. And I think the Bears need to
(19:19):
shore up the offensive line, but more than that, you know,
maybe another edge rusher. More than that, I think it's
just a cultural modification is what they need. But it's rough.
I mean, you can say what you want about the
Jets and Woody Johnson, and I think he's one of
the weaker owners, but they have a good roster. Aaron's
played well in the last three to four weeks. He's
had one hundred plus passer rating I think on average
(19:40):
over the last four weeks. The Giants have issues, but
you know, there's some pieces there that defensive front, and
la Mars don't want to fire Brian Dable because they've
run through coaches, but the team looks like they've quit.
But with Chicago there's just I mean, there's just not
much to like. I like Montes Sweat and Jayalen Johns.
I like Caleb Williams. You know, DJ Moore, Swift, the
(20:04):
running back, there's some Pete Cole command, there's some pieces
I like, But I don't know what you do other
than hire Mike Vrabel. This is not a job for
a coordinator. Give me a break. You're not going to
get a Ben Johnson here, Bobby Slowick. It's not going
to turn this thing around. You're a mile from that.
And I'll make this argument, I think, And I talked
(20:24):
to Mike Vrabel about this, and my suggestion to him is,
I'm not sure if I take a job this year,
I think next year you could have much more attractive openings.
If Joe Burrow is getting really tired of Zach Taylor,
the coach of Cincinnati, they won't fire him at the
end of this year. But if Joe Burrow makes demands,
Zach Taylor's in trouble next year. For Joe Burrow to
(20:48):
ream Zach Taylor out, knowing he's on TV the way
he reamed him out. Burrow's got no time for this
nonsense in Cincinnati. So that job could be open next year.
I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas, I think he's probably
saved his job, right, he's probably saved it. And if
Dallas can move Michael Parsons get a couple of first
round picks, hit on those you know, who knows. But
(21:10):
also I think that could be open. So you know,
seven different coaches get whacked every year. I just don't
like the job openings. I love Caleb Williams Chicago. To
me is it feels like quicksand for a coach. You know,
Jacksonville's got an opening. There's a reason everybody fails here
(21:33):
in Jacksonville. It just since Tom Coughlin left, it's just
dead coach walking. Nobody works there. So there's got to
be something systemic within the organization. And I think what
you're really seeing now. And I was having this discussion
this weekend with somebody I respect a lot, and he said,
(21:56):
you know, you just you start looking around this league
and it's just the power of ten. There's about ten
good gms, ted good owners, ten good quarterbacks, ten good
left tackles, and I just don't like. If you're Mike Vrabel,
I don't like what's out there. I love Chicago, it's
a great city. They're good pieces. But man, anybody watching
(22:17):
this show, watching this podcast, or listening, it does not
matter how good the employees are. If ownership and management
is sideways, it doesn't matter. I've said this before. I've
been really fortunate. I had a really good ownership in
Las Vegas my first job. Obviously, ESPN and Fox are
(22:39):
well run companies. At Portland, I thought we had good ownership,
good management. I worked in Tampa for a couple of
years and really really talented people in the newsroom, photo journalists, producers, reporters, anchors.
It was not the employees. I thought management was a
(23:00):
circus and I'll just leave it at that, and you
couldn't overcome it. And it was a real learning moment
for me, is that the employee base was the best
I'd ever worked with. At the time, I thought there
was just so many talented people. Our sports department was
just really fun, clever, smart people. But you can't like
(23:23):
in Chicago. It doesn't matter if Rabel's the coach and
he's trying to change things eventually, if people are political upstairs.
I mean it's it's like, look at the Jets, they
fire Robert Sali the best coach on the staff. I mean,
going into a game against Buffalo, if they won it,
there they were in first place. I mean they fired
Joe Douglas. Well, Douglas got Devonte Adams, who's playing great now.
(23:47):
Joe Douglas missed on a quarterback. But Joe Douglass. That
Jets roster they've got, dudes, I mean they really do.
They're going to get another very good first round pick
this year. They've got a left tackle for the future,
they've got their corner, they've got weapons. I mean they
can they can really be selected. The Jets could move
down in the first round and get four or five.
(24:11):
You know, if they moved down and got another second
round pick or a second and a fourth round pick,
you could have five new starters on the team next year.
And I think the Jets, I mean, they really have
their weapons. They have their left tackle, the Penn State kid,
a couple of good receivers, good corners, pass rushers. So
I mean, I I mean I thought saw when Joe
Douglas were capable.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
They're both out.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
So there's nothing you can do if upstairs is messed up.
There's just in my experience in life. There's nothing you
can do, you know, it's I make picks blazing five,
and I had another terrible week. Generally, I've been doing
this Blazing five thing for like twenty years, and on
average I hit about fifty six percent, fifty five, fifty
(24:52):
seven percent. This is my worst year easily. I don't
know why. I've just struggled all year long. But I'm
actually it's funny because on the b preseason predictions for
division champions, I've actually had the best year I've ever had.
I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and the Texans winning
their division. If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll be
(25:13):
four for four. Heading to the last couple of weeks,
I had Philly, the Rams, Green Bay, and the Falcons
winning their divisions. Philly and the Rams du lead. Green
Bay and the Falcons still have a shot, although Atlanta
right now they'll beating the Raiders tonight. They got to
get quarterback solved. My two dark horse teams were Washington
and Denver. They'll both make the playoffs. So I actually
(25:37):
have in terms of predictions, I think I've had a
really good year. I don't know why. I'm struggling so much.
I've just been out of rhythm. You know. The weekends
I take favorites, they go belly up. The weekends I
take dogs. I have the wrong ones. But I love
doing it, and I always feel bad. I don't mind
losing money. I don't like anybody else to lose it.
But I've been picking football games for so long. You
(26:00):
know an old story. When I first moved to Las Vegas,
I had no money, I was out of college, and
I drove down to Vegas in a blue AMC Pacer
that later caught fire. A couple of years later, on
Charleston and Oak Streets in Las Vegas, I had Texaco
station I pulled in my car was on fire. And
(26:21):
I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I'd never
met football games, and so I was a huge Pack
ten fan, and so I really started hitting on a
lot of Pac ten picks because all the games weren't televised.
I knew the Pacific Northwest teams really well because I
was from there. I remember one year, I think I
was like ten and one on Oregon State games. I
(26:42):
just could not miss on the Beavers. And I just
love picking football games. But I have stunk this year.
And what's interesting is that Nick Wright and Danny Parkins
at FS one have both been on fire, hitting like
sixty five percent. So congrats to those guys.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
You know.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
My overall takeaway really on the playoffs this year is
there's not a lot of surprises. I mean, right now,
I have If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll have
you know, six of the eight teams I picked to
win the division winning and Green Bay and the Falcons close.
What is pretty clear, and the reason I picked those
teams to win the division was like head coach and quarterback.
(27:24):
And so I think the one thing I look at
this year is a real positive. I think Caleb can play.
I think Jayden Daniels can play. I think Bone Knicks
can play. My guess is JJ McCarthy can play. I
don't know what the hell's going on with Michael Pennix,
because I really liked him out of college. I thought
he was a bigger, stronger, better deep ball to and
Tua is more than capable, but he just can't throw
the ball deep down field. He's not good against pressure
(27:48):
or really elite defenses or in cold weather. You have
to qualify everything with Tua. I think panic Sort is
a much better sharper, deep ball, stronger, longer, just a
bigger athlete. But I think we have a chance to
go five for five with quarterbacks. And this is not
a great quarterback year in college. But if the quarterbacks
(28:10):
go four for five or five for five this group
of quarterbacks, it will be the third draft since around
twenty eighteen where you've had multiple first round quarterbacks hit.
And I don't think we'll ever get to a saturation
point where you know everybody's got their quarterback. But I
don't remember a time where there were this many good quarterbacks.
(28:34):
I mean, I mean, even Aaron Rodgers in the last
month has been unbelievable. Jordan Love Jyaln Hurts this weekend
was sensational. You know, bo Nix makes mistakes, but he's
clearly a franchise guy. His toughness, his athletic ability. He's
had a better arm I think in the pros and
I thought he had in college. So I think, big picture,
(28:56):
as the leagues become more have and have nots, I
think we had another bumper quarterback draft class. I only
saw JJ McCarthy in the preseason. But in the couple appearances,
I thought he was really quick, really nimble, and he
reminded me a little bit of Sam Darnold that he
was really aggressive. And I think Kevin O'Connell's proven the
(29:19):
Vikings head coach, he can coach a lot of that
out of you. And another part of this quarterback journey
is there's better quarterback coaches. I mean this, so I
think the guy down in Tampa, Liam Cohen under Baker Mayfield,
who was briefly in Los Angeles, I think he's going
to get looks. I think the quality of offensive coaching
has really improved. That's why you're seeing Donald and Baker
(29:40):
Mayfield a rebirth. I think there's sensational coaching offensively. I
didn't feel that fifteen years ago in the NFL. I
think it's everywhere, and I think the talent's everywhere. So
I mean, yesterday we had a really ugly one o'clock window.
It was the first time all year I was bored
watching the NFL where I thought, man, we just this
(30:02):
is just a batterly window. But I mean this weekend,
the college and the pro games this weekend starting Friday night,
Indian at Notre Dame. The next Friday, Saturday Sunday could
be the most sensational three day stretch of football any year,
and a lot of it is because of quarterback play
and very sharp offensive coaching. All right, Time for Sharper
(30:31):
Square my buddy Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites
All Odds provided by DraftKings. You know, listen, the college
football games this weekend won't get the NFL numbers because
nothing in the world does. But there's some heaters and
we'll get to that in about fifteen minutes. There's some
fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry, it doesn't make any
sense because he's been so good. But if Ryan Day
loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna be a shit storm
(30:53):
in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy. So we'll get to
that in fifteen minutes. Let's do Sharper Square. I've had
a terrible year. I've had my worst year ever doing this,
and I don't really know. I don't want to outthink
the room. I'm about fifty five percent every year. I'm
not a pro gambler, but I think I'm you know,
in the ballpark. I've been terrible this year, and I can't.
You know, I think a lot of it is I've
(31:13):
always liked value and underdogs, and it just weeked a week.
Some weeks I go dogs, favorites win, some week I
go favorites. So I'm just going to give you my
thought on this. The Chiefs are now three and a
half point favorites. It's more stay away now. But when
it was two and a half, even with Carson Wentz
potentially playing, I love Kansas City. I think Carson Wentz
(31:36):
for a week is fine for a season. You can't
trust his health, so I would imagine it three and
a half. The Sharps like the Texans. But if so,
I like the two and a half and three Kansas City. Now,
if I say I like Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 5 (31:56):
The wise guys are playing the three and a half
because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
(32:16):
They were four and a half point favorites. They covered,
But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
thirty yard line, so killing two drives. Plus they had
(32:37):
three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
and so that game was closer statistically than you would
imagine by.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
The score itself. So there is going to be a sentiment.
Speaker 5 (32:53):
You take the Texans at plus three and a half,
at two and a half, one hundred percent people were
still taking the Chiefs. That's why the number got all
the way up to three and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Yeah, So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
pretty soundly by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
because they had eighty yards in the first half and
only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Steelers six and a half the you know what the
Ravens are. They got they're the Mike Tyson. They cross
(33:26):
their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
them back. You make them think Baltimore can get beat
by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
is a six and a half point underdog, So I
this to me is the steel of the week. Pittsburgh
(33:47):
plus six and a half in Baltimore Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
Yeah, Wise guys love this bad and it's almost become
a blind bet in this series. Whise guys like Mike
Tomlin as an underdog. Anyways, you're right that game, Nijie Harris,
the Steelers were outplayed.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
And in the middle of the third the game fumbled
the ball.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
touchdown to make it twenty twenty. Changes the game, right,
Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
is the best coach in a generation against the spread.
(34:30):
He is best coach in a generation winning straight up
as an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog
of three or more versus the Ravens, he is six
and oh straight up, there are six and oh against
the spread. He's thirteen two and two against spread versus
Harbaugh when the line in this series is three or
(34:50):
more points the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh
Tomlin rain. The underdog is twenty three four and three
against the spread. It's twenty fifteen underdogs sixteen into sixteen
too and.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
One against the spread.
Speaker 5 (35:05):
So like, yeah, that there are times where you're nervous
about playing into these trends. And we talked about this
on the show last week betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs.
Those were times we were nervous, Like it happens six
times out of ten. This time it's happening eight times
out of ten. So yeah, you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (35:29):
I like the forty nine ers plus one at the Dolphins.
I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
And you know, as I watched them against Houston, it's
just bubble screens. That's all they do. The two is
(35:49):
now throwing forty times a game. That's way too much
for two. With the teams like the Packers and the
Eagles have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw
twenty four times a game. I think the forty nine ers,
I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
nine ers. Here sharper square.
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
It's been bet down obviously from mean one and a
half to one. For a minute, very hot minute, the
Niners were favorites and then it sort of bounced back
a little bit. But that money that's moving it is
professional money in favor of the Niners. Not a huge
(36:29):
sort of feeling on that game. They just sort of
think that the Niners are probably a more physical team.
Are they getting more healthy? They don't believe in the
Dolphins is the bigger component of their thinking.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor
and it was a blowout. They go home now and
have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
(37:05):
this week and I said, I think if you gave
Sam Darnold. With the Colts, they have the Viking season.
I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
for bow Knicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
(37:26):
the line is. I think they're going to come back.
I think they're I think Chris Ballard's jobs in the line,
Anthony Richardson's careers on the line, Shane Steichen with that
trick play that got a pick six. I think Indy
is inflamed, and I think they blow the Titans out
Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (37:46):
So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
at four and a half even when Will Levis was
possibly the quarterback. It's been beat down immediately with Mason
Rudolph as the quarterback. The Wise guys have liked the
Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson as
(38:09):
a favorite. Like, if you want to talk about comps,
the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage Right now,
Tim Tebow and Akille Smith in the past twenty five years.
This season will go down as one of the worst
in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
(38:32):
And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
he came back and he looked like he was a
little bit more in control. They were putting him in
better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
were winning that game in spite of him. And look
like I was on the Colts last week, Jonathan Taylor
(38:54):
dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, well, and
this was all happening. If you're watching red Zone, this
is like boom boom boom. It was just like gut
punch after cup punch after gut punch. As a better
but you felt like and I felt like Colts had
(39:14):
no chance to get back into that game after they
gave up the lead, because Anthony and Richardson can't win
you a game, so they're going to have to dominate
on the ground in order to cover this three and
a half. And at the end of the day, he
got to win by four points. That's a relatively big
number on what should be a run heavy game in
(39:35):
which the clock is running a lot. So I think
the wise guys are still like in Tennessee in the hook.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Part of me says I should love the Bears at
home plus six and a half against Detroit. Jared Goff
outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray,
more passing yards than Jalen Hurts, and hasn't had an
interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
the record, you would think he's awful and it's like, no, actually,
(40:06):
all things considered now that he's with the third coach
at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad. It is.
I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5 (40:25):
Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
it was at seven and a half and seven And
this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
talked about this you're just not getting the best of
the number, and long term, that's a bad way to
(40:45):
try to win games. You might win once in a while,
but long term you want to be on the right
side of the number. So the wise guys took the
seven and a half. They took the seven. I think
this is a really tricky game. At six and a
half is a home dog in the division. Of course,
I want to be on the Bears. I can't find
(41:06):
a way to get that. I'm not saying I'm going
to bet Detroit. But there's two schools of thought on
Jared Goff. Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors
is unbeatable. Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole.
But he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends
(41:26):
to not when he is outside, and he is a
covering machine over the past five years. I look at
this in a different way. Sure, their defense is beat up,
but all they have to do is hand the ball
to Jamiir Gibbs. Because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
like putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
(41:48):
single game no matter who they play. Saw it again,
last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
is going to come out in a bad mood and
try to prove that there's still the class of the NFC.
Run the ball down the bear's throat, and it doesn't
really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
(42:08):
tell you at six and a half, you're making a
good call.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
(42:36):
Wilson wanting a trade, the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
I mean why look, wise guys have been on the Jets.
Oh week.
Speaker 5 (42:56):
The wise guys have been on the Jets for much
of the year, and much to their dismay. Jeff Ulbrick,
the coach, seems to find ways to play them out
of wins and covers and then make the stupidest mistakes
that actually leads them into a cover that they never
should have covered. Right last week, he's going for the
(43:18):
touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks have two timeouts.
They end up covering the three point spread, winning by six,
when really he should have kneeled down and left no
time and kicked a field goal. Week before, making bad
decisions at the end of the game, they end up
losing the game to the Dolphins and not even covering
the three point spread because they lose by six in overtime.
So he's a menace when it comes to clock management,
(43:40):
and he's a menace for betters.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
But the wise guys do love the Jets.
Speaker 5 (43:45):
Right now, Aaron Rodgers has been playing significantly better the.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Past two weeks.
Speaker 5 (43:51):
You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're going
to feel better. And now he's got to come back
and play in the cold in New Jersey. But there
is something about the Rams and the fact that they
have to go into the cold too. Stafford does not
perform as well then. And also, this is a team
you get late in the year. You get teams that
(44:13):
are what I like to call good ish, right fifty
to sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're
playing bad teams on the road. That is a recipe
for disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying
they're going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
So the wise guys are definitely back in the Jets
this week.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
minus fourteen against the Saints just screams take the Packers.
I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
been a year of the favorites. I think the most
(44:54):
underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
They really believe it. I think they're a better team
this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
fourteen point favorites, but they're covering and favorites are covering,
(45:17):
and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
one of the few places where home field is still
three to three and a half points sharper square.
Speaker 5 (45:31):
Well, look, you're never gonna get a sharp confirmation on
a fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites
this week, the Packers over the Saints the Bills over
the Patriots. There's been more of a conversation around the
Bills as fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up
(45:54):
to fourteen and a half, and that was very much
professionals betting on the Bills a team. Then it came
down then some professionals, not a whole lot of them,
but a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what
half a point too far the Packers, Like, sure, there's
nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
(46:16):
but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Everything you just said, everyone agrees with.
Speaker 2 (46:21):
It's why.
Speaker 5 (46:22):
Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
against the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
That was my favorite.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Yeah, yeah, mine too. It's your only bet.
Speaker 5 (46:31):
I won last week and so they were on him
at two and a half. That was a great spot
for the Packers, right. They had just lost a really
hard game to the Lions, and I think that game
gave them the confidence that you just talked about. You
saw the mastery with which Lafour calls a game. Jordan
Love has been much more cautious with the ball, hasn't
(46:52):
been throwing interceptions. I think the Packers believe they are
in the same class as the Vikings and the Lions
and the Eagles, and I'd be hard pressed to disagree.
I think it's harder to win as to touchdown favorites
against a Saints team that like from a from a
from a wise guy perspective. They just don't like this
(47:15):
game as much as they would like the Bills and
the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
to you.
Speaker 1 (47:24):
Yeah. Please.
Speaker 5 (47:26):
So this is the win, Josh Allen the MVP game. Right,
there's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP. And
you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways. Right, they
(47:49):
are a team that has a winning record as big
favorites in these games in the division, outside the division
at home, they tend they don't play down to the
level of the competition. Their offense can do whatever it
wants against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early,
(48:09):
their record against the spread it's like seven and twenty
one the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
They cannot recover. So if the Bills get out to
lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
(48:31):
the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
Speaker 2 (48:41):
There's just a lot of turmoil there.
Speaker 5 (48:43):
So the wise guys, if they're betting a big favorite,
they're more inclined to bet the Bills than the Packers.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
All Right, I want to talk some college football now,
because I do think in Indiana, Notre Dame and a
lot of its weather, I think it's going to be
pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
(49:16):
competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
(49:40):
and I think Indiana is going to So I really
like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 5 (49:46):
Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
betting Indiana and Indiana's look been a covering machine this year. Yes,
obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge. They
also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at a
time when Michigan was starting to get better. And the
next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
(50:06):
So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State
Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 2 (50:17):
I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and
the way.
Speaker 5 (50:20):
Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
and the time and look, you can't help but listen
to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
and has got his players playing this game with a
huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 2 (50:38):
And we've talked about this.
Speaker 5 (50:41):
One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
it was able to achieve when other teams that are
leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
bring in five star recruits who are going to be
there for a year and go to the NFL. They
(51:01):
brought in guys who are just really good at college football.
And this is a great college football game. And there
is a nuanced difference when I say a college football
game here, that's the style of game this is gonna be.
It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution,
it's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
but the people who do their jobs the best.
Speaker 2 (51:22):
So I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1 (51:24):
I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
(51:44):
SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm gonna
take Texas minus twelve. I think this. Remember Clemson doesn't
go to the transfer portal. They have holes. Yeah, Texas
out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal. And
(52:06):
also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I don't
think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think they'll
go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause going forward.
I like Texas to roll here sharper square.
Speaker 5 (52:20):
Totally sharp, Like if you're looking I'm looking in the
Action app right now. It's just checking it out and
you can see in the app, you can see the
betting tickets and you can see the money percentages on
each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
(52:41):
twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas.
And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
with you. That defense they have is us fierce, Like
(53:02):
they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
champion would have been Texas. So, like, that defense is
so freaking good and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
(53:23):
talking about like guys who've been playing college football for
a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1 (53:30):
So the game, I'm going to ask you to handicap.
I don't get the line. So the line is telling
me Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much.
So Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's
offensive line, meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and
it may only be fifteen degrees. But this line is
(53:54):
telling me that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State
is pissed and Ryan Day's jobs on the line, and
Josh Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is
a warm weather SEC team, So the line is telling
me that Ohio State's gonna win this comfortably. That's what
it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
(54:15):
a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
I mean, Tennessee's the best rushing team in the SEC
going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they?
Speaker 2 (54:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (54:30):
Yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
and that is because it's been It's kind of the
advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
situations that you just talked about, And there is some
feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
(54:54):
It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds. Wise,
guys took the six and a half. They bet Tennessee
at six and a half, right, but there was so
much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that it
moved up.
Speaker 2 (55:12):
So Ryan Day is in a spot. And we've talked
about this.
Speaker 5 (55:16):
There was a story in the Wall Street Journal today
about Ohio State fans people calling in to local radio
about Max Crosby, who know the Lions, the Raiders defensive
lineman who's out for the year. On his podcast, he's
a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how he wants
(55:37):
the team to lose so they get rid of Ryan Day.
That is a weird thing to be talking about when
you've got a coach who has won as much as
he has. But I think you and I agree every
game for him is going to be a must win game.
And unless they win the championship or they get there
and they are so dominant, and he puts himself in
(55:59):
a position even if they lose, it's a way to
rebuild the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And
he hasn't beaten them, and they haven't gotten over it,
you know.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
I think sometimes one of the things I love about
sports is when there's cultural changes. I like to be
I like to predict what they are. I love the
theories and my systems on like what's changing. So something's
happening in college football, and college football fans don't yet
know it. So in the NFL, it's almost understood that
(56:31):
you've got to give a staff a couple of years, right, Like,
there's just it's just really hard. The margins are thin. Well,
I think the Ohio States and the Georgia's and the
Texas fans. You know, you've always been able to line
up and just beat teams. And one of the reasons
is over a long season is your backups were as
good as their starters. And football's regulated the level levels
(56:53):
of violence. So there's college and pro. There's injuries, but
the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated depth at the
blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when you do suffer
injuries and the season is now longer than ever, your
backups are produced starters, that's all they are. And so
(57:14):
these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame, these big
traditional powers as the season goes on, I mean, look
at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States in IT,
SMUs in IT, Boise States in IT, like, and these
these are live dogs like and so I don't think
quite college football fans understand not only are players getting
(57:36):
paid that it looks more like pro football, but your
backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense now has
six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it was excellent.
And so what and what what creates that the salary cap?
You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody has depth
(57:57):
in the NFL. You either like Philadelphia's got great front
line starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the same offense. Right,
Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense. We've almost
understood that in pro football you need your starters. And
when you get injury plagged Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
have good college That was never the point. Top ten
(58:20):
teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
move a guard to left tackle. They're all lion stakes.
It's Iowa at best.
Speaker 5 (58:35):
So you're you're totally right, that's an on the field problem,
but culturally for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
(58:59):
had so much much meaning because there was a lot
on the line.
Speaker 2 (59:04):
You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 5 (59:06):
I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
and that's all you care about. Because college football has
always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
(59:27):
literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
their self worth on, have built their fandom on. They
need to move on from those really meaning anything because
(59:49):
they kind of don't. If Io State loses to Michigan
for the next ten years, but they win the national
title in five of those years, is that going to
be better or worse? As a fan Like, they need
to come to grips with a new reality of what
these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
because they used to mean everything. It wasn't just about
(01:00:09):
beating Michigan. It was about beating Michigan and what it
meant for winning the Big Ten and going to the
Rose Bowl, or what it meant for winning the Big
Ten and then being in the College Football Playoff or
winning the BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 5 (01:00:24):
So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
(01:00:45):
going to mean as much to him twenty years from
now as they do to me and my friends who
also went to Indiana?
Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (01:00:51):
Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
would label your favorite.
Speaker 5 (01:00:57):
H Well, look, I'm middle Kansas City, So I bet
Kansas City plus two and a half on Sunday night
and then and you mean you know it was plus
two and a half, like on Monday morning. I'm sorry
when the news about what was happening with Holmes was
still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a half point underdogs,
so I bet him two and a half, and then
(01:01:19):
when it became clear that he was going to be playing.
This was yesterday afternoon, the game got up to three
and a half. I bet the Texans at plus three
and a half. So the majority of my money is
trying to get that middle right. But I also bet
the Jets three and a half. That's one that I like.
I really like the Steelers at six and a half.
(01:01:40):
So if I like, I'll put in my five favorite picks.
The Steelers will be in there. The Jets will definitely
be in there. Dallas I bet at four and a half.
I like Dallas a lot against Tampa. I think there's
a lot of inflation this week, and I think that's
one of the bigger games where Dallas has been playing better.
(01:02:04):
Like the last three weeks, last four weeks, that Cincinnati
game kind of looks like a fluke, right. They lost
that game, They've won the three other games. Micah Parsons
has seven and a half sacks since he's back. Deron
bland Is back in the secondary. That defense is getting
a lot better. Cooper Rush at Home Controlled Environment. Tampa
(01:02:25):
Bay just put up forty on the chargers that inflated
that line a little bit so. Dallas is another one
that I'm un paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
Chad Millman Sharper Square, I love it, buddy.
Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 4 (01:02:41):
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(01:11):
all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
poured one tonight just for this thirty four to twenty
seven chargers. When whoever won, I was happy, although I
did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
I've said this is when I started the volume. One
(01:31):
of the things I really really like. When I was
in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing
and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
you get older and older, and you have kids, and
you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
hopefully you have something in you that you want to
see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
(01:53):
the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
still he is still learning. But in that first half,
that was all on script, those first two or three series,
and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
(02:14):
he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
both of these guys, these two teams last year were
thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
(02:34):
right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
you land Jannis or jokicch it takes years and years
(02:55):
to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
I mean, there's just some teams that can't afford it, right.
But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
bottom three team in the league. To meet O'Ryan c J.
Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
were one of the three worst teams in the league.
This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
(03:15):
got Joe Alt and Laddi McConkie. No question upgrades, but
they're so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle.
Are the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
(03:38):
They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
and you know there's still a draft away. They're about
six players away. They needed to tight end another running back,
although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run of the game.
But it just shows you why the NFL is king.
You just either get a coach, get a quarterback, or
Houston get both and you're a playoff team. And it's
(04:00):
just I've always called the NFL the League of hope.
But let's first start with the Chargers. They were what
did al Michael say tonight? I can't believe al Michaels
is this good at eighty. The guy is such a
talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick, and
he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
(04:22):
He just signed for next year, by the way, but
you know that he had said at one point the
Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
decided by three points or less, they just don't know
how to win, you know, they just just don't know
how to win. And they take this team at the
end of last year. It was a disaster at the
end of the year, could have been the worst thing
in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact
(04:42):
half the defense and guys in the back end are hurt.
Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
banged up, and look at them. And it was such
a testament to Harbaugh's coaching, because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
(05:03):
a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching. Smart adjustments.
Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
(05:27):
of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
that can mentor you cares about your well being and
(05:48):
you know, in the job market, and they will make
the best out of you. And I feel like that's
what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
draft away, right. Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
But in the end of the half sequence was so
(06:08):
perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Jim Harbaugh is competing to the very end. And some
people say he's weird, he's intense. Okay, it's the NFL.
Belichick was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So
into the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
and that's just Harriball battling to the end. So there's
(06:31):
a big difference between going in down what they would
have been and then the field goal. You got a
real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
kind of momentum into the locker room changed the energy
and the juice, And I thought Denver had all the
juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
(06:52):
of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way,
Jesus and he again he is working with return guys,
(07:15):
a first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman.
Back up running back Herbert in the second half eleven
fifteen two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point
eight Jesus. I mean, it's just, it is just I
just isn't it crazy?
Speaker 2 (07:33):
Is that?
Speaker 1 (07:34):
You know Sean Payton takes this shipwreck Denver. I think
I like their GM, but it's a mess. They're in
dead cap hell in the AFC. And before the season started,
Vegas adam at five and a half wins, and I
thought that, I said it was my favorite double wind toadal.
I thought they would double that. I thought they'd get
in kind of the nine eight nine category. They're gonna
make the playoffs. They're in with nine wins now, and
(07:56):
they'll they'll win one of their final three games, and
I think their cap of winning a playoff game. I
don't think Denver's capable of winning two or three, but
I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I
feel the same way about the Chargers. They kind of
have to win one way. You know, they've got to
have Herbert be superman, They've got to have everybody healthy.
Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh, Denver and the Chargers those
(08:18):
are one playoff win teams. Herbert finishes the night about
when is it twenty three to thirty one? Three hundred yards.
It is. It's just you know, remember a couple of
years ago and the media, you know, the media went
to a weird thing where it was very sensitive. And
(08:38):
I remember about three or four years ago, and the
media was just saying, Oh, these Thursday night games, they're
unfair to players. Oh give me a break. So I
called players, I talked to coaches, and the players I
talked to are like, we love Thursday night games. Usually
it's a division rival, so you don't have to do
a ton of film study. Like tonight, you're playing somebody
(08:59):
you know, and it's usually a division game, so the
travel isn't too long. It's a two hour flight somewhere,
and you don't hit during that week, and then you
get almost a second by week. And the media was
freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had some sensational
Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought it would
be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so crisp in
(09:22):
the first half. Now in the second half, Denver, I mean,
let's face it, they aided the Chargers on that long drive.
They had a couple of guys off sides. That was
a huge break there. Were two big moments in the
game for me. That the end of the halftime kick,
and then Denver had a series of penalties as the
Chargers got that big drive which eventually ended up with
(09:43):
Herbert making that throw for a touchdown in the end zone.
But they have three or four defensive penalties and that
really gave them. They really seized momentum and you could
hear the crowd a little bit getting into it, and god,
that was just fun. Although my phone dranking, it's probably
justin Herbert. I'm sorry to be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Okay?
(10:04):
So a big topic of conversation before I get the
Chad Millman has been the NBA ratings this week, and
I saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league
needs to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
(10:26):
on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
the consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
I mean good hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
our players are miserable. Twitter is making them miserable. Can
(10:48):
you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
(11:09):
asked about the All Star Game changes and he dropped
an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
(11:29):
So that's the championship coach and the best player in
the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
to get too into it. So the people that are
criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
(11:50):
anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
change the menu. Rob Manford did, and Adam Silver needs
to for the record, when you make changes to your menu,
to your business, the consumer always responds, ohways, I mean
baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
(12:12):
two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
the NBA. People at criticize it. Watch it. I watch
(12:34):
it all the time. I don't really get into it
until the football season's done. But you know by February,
you know, you have the two weeks before the Super Bowl.
I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty minutes a night.
So I thought it was interesting that Joe Missoula and
Lebron James both came out and were critical esthetically of
the current product. It's not a good watch and when
(12:56):
something falls off the cliff in two years, three years,
got to look in the mirror. It's not about celebrating
it's about auditing. That's something baseball did recently and something
the NFL does annually. NFL is King for a lot
of reasons. One of the reasons the ability to self police,
(13:17):
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Speaker 4 (14:37):
Slash bball. Let's talk about the Chicago Bears. So they
lost to the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
I didn't think Sam Darnold played particularly well, but he's
getting the ball to TJ. Hawkinson, Jordan Addison, and Justin Jefferson,
so he's getting the ball to the right people. I
thought he was a little high, missed some throws, but
overall Minnesota was picked for third or fourth. I mean,
it's all gravy at this point. First, let's start with
the Chicago Bears. There are a couple franchises in this
(15:10):
league that are just broken, and I think the Chicago
Bears are top of the list. It's a broken franchise.
The mccaskeys are arguably the worst owners in the league,
oldest and among the poorest. Really out of touch. Kevin
Warrens the president. I've been told for years, highly political.
(15:32):
Charles Robinson of Yahoo reporting today that you know somebody
that seeks power and to retain power. That's a little
what I was told years ago. Don't know him personally,
but that's what I've been told from two sources. I
trust Ryan Poles is young. You know, I'm hit and
miss on polls. I love the Monte Montes sweat deal,
(15:56):
the DJ Moore deal. I don't think he's the problem
in the organization. I think Ryan Poles is struggling with
the people above him. But a great example of the dysfunction.
So Matt Ebraflus, a defensive coach, was fired. Well, defensive
coaches don't have the offensive connections that offensive coaches do.
(16:20):
I mean, there is a reason Andy Reid keeps hiring
really good offensive coaches right like their offense. Now, Reid
does most of the play calling, but Doug Peterson got
a head coaching job. Matt Naggy got a head coaching job,
and by the way, got Mitt Trubisky to the playoffs twice.
So you can say all you want about Matt Naggy.
You die for Matt Naggy now in Chicago. And then
(16:43):
there's a reason that Belichick had to rely on Josh McDaniels.
When Josh left. You know, Bill was scrambling to find
an offensive coordinator, but Sean McVay can find one every
two years. So Thomas Brown was under Shane Waldron. Well,
Eberflus doesn't have a lot of great offensive connections, clearly
because when Shane Waldron left Chicago of Seattle, he was criticized.
(17:07):
They rolled their eyes at him. He went to Chicago,
it was a mess with Caleb Williams. Then Thomas Brown,
who's a bright young guy. He coached with the Rams,
but you know he is an interim head coach. He's had.
This is his third different job this season with the Bears.
I mean, HR is probably asking him to slow down
so they can get his paycheck, right, I'm not going
(17:29):
to blame him, but eber flu selected this staff and
it's not very good. I think it's a broken franchise.
And you know, my take is, if you're really honest
about it, you know what they remind me of. I
was thinking about it tonight. They remind me a lot.
The Bears are the Chargers last season where they had
a talented young quarterback, some really nice pieces, but major
(17:53):
cultural issues and what did they do. They went and
got Jim Harbaugh to fix it. And that's why Mike
frabels the higher Vrabel is Dan Campbell less, reckless, He's
Jim Harbaugh, but to this point hasn't been as successful.
He's a really smart guy. He's a culture changer. There's
(18:14):
no bullshit with him. He's very honest and very upfront,
and he got to an AFC championship, you know, with Tennessee.
So I just think Vrabel's the call here. Vrabel, you know,
and I've talked to Mike about this. Vrabel is the
kind of guy that will come in and the only
(18:34):
thing that would get in his way is a Kevin
Warren level executive that was trying to retain power. If
Frabel has some saying personnel, he's pretty good at that
and has a great relationship with the general manager who
he can answer to and trust I think Rabel could
win immediately. I think you know again, I'll say this,
(18:56):
the Bears have a Chargers feel now. The Chargers are
not going to go from what they were last year
to a super Bowl. They need another draft. They have
to hit on another receiver, maybe another tight end, another
running back. They need more pieces offensively, and the Bears
with Rabel are not winning a super Bowl, especially out
of that division. And I think the Bears need to
(19:19):
shore up the offensive line, but more than that, you know,
maybe another edge rusher. More than that, I think it's
just a cultural modification is what they need. But it's rough.
I mean, you can say what you want about the
Jets and Woody Johnson, and I think he's one of
the weaker owners, but they have a good roster. Aaron's
played well in the last three to four weeks. He's
had one hundred plus passer rating I think on average
(19:40):
over the last four weeks. The Giants have issues, but
you know, there's some pieces there that defensive front, and
la Mars don't want to fire Brian Dable because they've
run through coaches, but the team looks like they've quit.
But with Chicago there's just I mean, there's just not
much to like. I like Montes Sweat and Jayalen Johns.
I like Caleb Williams. You know, DJ Moore, Swift, the
(20:04):
running back, there's some Pete Cole command, there's some pieces
I like, But I don't know what you do other
than hire Mike Vrabel. This is not a job for
a coordinator. Give me a break. You're not going to
get a Ben Johnson here, Bobby Slowick. It's not going
to turn this thing around. You're a mile from that.
And I'll make this argument, I think, And I talked
(20:24):
to Mike Vrabel about this, and my suggestion to him is,
I'm not sure if I take a job this year,
I think next year you could have much more attractive openings.
If Joe Burrow is getting really tired of Zach Taylor,
the coach of Cincinnati, they won't fire him at the
end of this year. But if Joe Burrow makes demands,
Zach Taylor's in trouble next year. For Joe Burrow to
(20:48):
ream Zach Taylor out, knowing he's on TV the way
he reamed him out. Burrow's got no time for this
nonsense in Cincinnati. So that job could be open next year.
I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas, I think he's probably
saved his job, right, he's probably saved it. And if
Dallas can move Michael Parsons get a couple of first
round picks, hit on those you know, who knows. But
(21:10):
also I think that could be open. So you know,
seven different coaches get whacked every year. I just don't
like the job openings. I love Caleb Williams Chicago. To
me is it feels like quicksand for a coach. You know,
Jacksonville's got an opening. There's a reason everybody fails here
(21:33):
in Jacksonville. It just since Tom Coughlin left, it's just
dead coach walking. Nobody works there. So there's got to
be something systemic within the organization. And I think what
you're really seeing now. And I was having this discussion
this weekend with somebody I respect a lot, and he said,
(21:56):
you know, you just you start looking around this league
and it's just the power of ten. There's about ten
good gms, ted good owners, ten good quarterbacks, ten good
left tackles, and I just don't like. If you're Mike Vrabel,
I don't like what's out there. I love Chicago, it's
a great city. They're good pieces. But man, anybody watching
(22:17):
this show, watching this podcast, or listening, it does not
matter how good the employees are. If ownership and management
is sideways, it doesn't matter. I've said this before. I've
been really fortunate. I had a really good ownership in
Las Vegas my first job. Obviously, ESPN and Fox are
(22:39):
well run companies. At Portland, I thought we had good ownership,
good management. I worked in Tampa for a couple of
years and really really talented people in the newsroom, photo journalists, producers, reporters, anchors.
It was not the employees. I thought management was a
(23:00):
circus and I'll just leave it at that, and you
couldn't overcome it. And it was a real learning moment
for me, is that the employee base was the best
I'd ever worked with. At the time, I thought there
was just so many talented people. Our sports department was
just really fun, clever, smart people. But you can't like
(23:23):
in Chicago. It doesn't matter if Rabel's the coach and
he's trying to change things eventually, if people are political upstairs.
I mean it's it's like, look at the Jets, they
fire Robert Sali the best coach on the staff. I mean,
going into a game against Buffalo, if they won it,
there they were in first place. I mean they fired
Joe Douglas. Well, Douglas got Devonte Adams, who's playing great now.
(23:47):
Joe Douglas missed on a quarterback. But Joe Douglass. That
Jets roster they've got, dudes, I mean they really do.
They're going to get another very good first round pick
this year. They've got a left tackle for the future,
they've got their corner, they've got weapons. I mean they
can they can really be selected. The Jets could move
down in the first round and get four or five.
(24:11):
You know, if they moved down and got another second
round pick or a second and a fourth round pick,
you could have five new starters on the team next year.
And I think the Jets, I mean, they really have
their weapons. They have their left tackle, the Penn State kid,
a couple of good receivers, good corners, pass rushers. So
I mean, I I mean I thought saw when Joe
Douglas were capable.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
They're both out.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
So there's nothing you can do if upstairs is messed up.
There's just in my experience in life. There's nothing you
can do, you know, it's I make picks blazing five,
and I had another terrible week. Generally, I've been doing
this Blazing five thing for like twenty years, and on
average I hit about fifty six percent, fifty five, fifty
(24:52):
seven percent. This is my worst year easily. I don't
know why. I've just struggled all year long. But I'm
actually it's funny because on the b preseason predictions for
division champions, I've actually had the best year I've ever had.
I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and the Texans winning
their division. If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll be
(25:13):
four for four. Heading to the last couple of weeks,
I had Philly, the Rams, Green Bay, and the Falcons
winning their divisions. Philly and the Rams du lead. Green
Bay and the Falcons still have a shot, although Atlanta
right now they'll beating the Raiders tonight. They got to
get quarterback solved. My two dark horse teams were Washington
and Denver. They'll both make the playoffs. So I actually
(25:37):
have in terms of predictions, I think I've had a
really good year. I don't know why. I'm struggling so much.
I've just been out of rhythm. You know. The weekends
I take favorites, they go belly up. The weekends I
take dogs. I have the wrong ones. But I love
doing it, and I always feel bad. I don't mind
losing money. I don't like anybody else to lose it.
But I've been picking football games for so long. You
(26:00):
know an old story. When I first moved to Las Vegas,
I had no money, I was out of college, and
I drove down to Vegas in a blue AMC Pacer
that later caught fire. A couple of years later, on
Charleston and Oak Streets in Las Vegas, I had Texaco
station I pulled in my car was on fire. And
(26:21):
I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I'd never
met football games, and so I was a huge Pack
ten fan, and so I really started hitting on a
lot of Pac ten picks because all the games weren't televised.
I knew the Pacific Northwest teams really well because I
was from there. I remember one year, I think I
was like ten and one on Oregon State games. I
(26:42):
just could not miss on the Beavers. And I just
love picking football games. But I have stunk this year.
And what's interesting is that Nick Wright and Danny Parkins
at FS one have both been on fire, hitting like
sixty five percent. So congrats to those guys.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
You know.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
My overall takeaway really on the playoffs this year is
there's not a lot of surprises. I mean, right now,
I have If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll have
you know, six of the eight teams I picked to
win the division winning and Green Bay and the Falcons close.
What is pretty clear, and the reason I picked those
teams to win the division was like head coach and quarterback.
(27:24):
And so I think the one thing I look at
this year is a real positive. I think Caleb can play.
I think Jayden Daniels can play. I think Bone Knicks
can play. My guess is JJ McCarthy can play. I
don't know what the hell's going on with Michael Pennix,
because I really liked him out of college. I thought
he was a bigger, stronger, better deep ball to and
Tua is more than capable, but he just can't throw
the ball deep down field. He's not good against pressure
(27:48):
or really elite defenses or in cold weather. You have
to qualify everything with Tua. I think panic Sort is
a much better sharper, deep ball, stronger, longer, just a
bigger athlete. But I think we have a chance to
go five for five with quarterbacks. And this is not
a great quarterback year in college. But if the quarterbacks
(28:10):
go four for five or five for five this group
of quarterbacks, it will be the third draft since around
twenty eighteen where you've had multiple first round quarterbacks hit.
And I don't think we'll ever get to a saturation
point where you know everybody's got their quarterback. But I
don't remember a time where there were this many good quarterbacks.
(28:34):
I mean, I mean, even Aaron Rodgers in the last
month has been unbelievable. Jordan Love Jyaln Hurts this weekend
was sensational. You know, bo Nix makes mistakes, but he's
clearly a franchise guy. His toughness, his athletic ability. He's
had a better arm I think in the pros and
I thought he had in college. So I think, big picture,
(28:56):
as the leagues become more have and have nots, I
think we had another bumper quarterback draft class. I only
saw JJ McCarthy in the preseason. But in the couple appearances,
I thought he was really quick, really nimble, and he
reminded me a little bit of Sam Darnold that he
was really aggressive. And I think Kevin O'Connell's proven the
(29:19):
Vikings head coach, he can coach a lot of that
out of you. And another part of this quarterback journey
is there's better quarterback coaches. I mean this, so I
think the guy down in Tampa, Liam Cohen under Baker Mayfield,
who was briefly in Los Angeles, I think he's going
to get looks. I think the quality of offensive coaching
has really improved. That's why you're seeing Donald and Baker
(29:40):
Mayfield a rebirth. I think there's sensational coaching offensively. I
didn't feel that fifteen years ago in the NFL. I
think it's everywhere, and I think the talent's everywhere. So
I mean, yesterday we had a really ugly one o'clock window.
It was the first time all year I was bored
watching the NFL where I thought, man, we just this
(30:02):
is just a batterly window. But I mean this weekend,
the college and the pro games this weekend starting Friday night,
Indian at Notre Dame. The next Friday, Saturday Sunday could
be the most sensational three day stretch of football any year,
and a lot of it is because of quarterback play
and very sharp offensive coaching. All right, Time for Sharper
(30:31):
Square my buddy Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites
All Odds provided by DraftKings. You know, listen, the college
football games this weekend won't get the NFL numbers because
nothing in the world does. But there's some heaters and
we'll get to that in about fifteen minutes. There's some
fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry, it doesn't make any
sense because he's been so good. But if Ryan Day
loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna be a shit storm
(30:53):
in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy. So we'll get to
that in fifteen minutes. Let's do Sharper Square. I've had
a terrible year. I've had my worst year ever doing this,
and I don't really know. I don't want to outthink
the room. I'm about fifty five percent every year. I'm
not a pro gambler, but I think I'm you know,
in the ballpark. I've been terrible this year, and I can't.
You know, I think a lot of it is I've
(31:13):
always liked value and underdogs, and it just weeked a week.
Some weeks I go dogs, favorites win, some week I
go favorites. So I'm just going to give you my
thought on this. The Chiefs are now three and a
half point favorites. It's more stay away now. But when
it was two and a half, even with Carson Wentz
potentially playing, I love Kansas City. I think Carson Wentz
(31:36):
for a week is fine for a season. You can't
trust his health, so I would imagine it three and
a half. The Sharps like the Texans. But if so,
I like the two and a half and three Kansas City. Now,
if I say I like Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 2 (31:54):
Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 5 (31:56):
The wise guys are playing the three and a half
because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
(32:16):
They were four and a half point favorites. They covered,
But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
thirty yard line, so killing two drives. Plus they had
(32:37):
three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
and so that game was closer statistically than you would
imagine by.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
The score itself. So there is going to be a sentiment.
Speaker 5 (32:53):
You take the Texans at plus three and a half,
at two and a half, one hundred percent people were
still taking the Chiefs. That's why the number got all
the way up to three and a half.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Yeah, So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
pretty soundly by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
because they had eighty yards in the first half and
only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Steelers six and a half the you know what the
Ravens are. They got they're the Mike Tyson. They cross
(33:26):
their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
them back. You make them think Baltimore can get beat
by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
is a six and a half point underdog, So I
this to me is the steel of the week. Pittsburgh
(33:47):
plus six and a half in Baltimore Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (33:50):
Yeah, Wise guys love this bad and it's almost become
a blind bet in this series. Whise guys like Mike
Tomlin as an underdog. Anyways, you're right that game, Nijie Harris,
the Steelers were outplayed.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
And in the middle of the third the game fumbled
the ball.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
touchdown to make it twenty twenty. Changes the game, right,
Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
is the best coach in a generation against the spread.
(34:30):
He is best coach in a generation winning straight up
as an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog
of three or more versus the Ravens, he is six
and oh straight up, there are six and oh against
the spread. He's thirteen two and two against spread versus
Harbaugh when the line in this series is three or
(34:50):
more points the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh
Tomlin rain. The underdog is twenty three four and three
against the spread. It's twenty fifteen underdogs sixteen into sixteen
too and.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
One against the spread.
Speaker 5 (35:05):
So like, yeah, that there are times where you're nervous
about playing into these trends. And we talked about this
on the show last week betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs.
Those were times we were nervous, Like it happens six
times out of ten. This time it's happening eight times
out of ten. So yeah, you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (35:29):
I like the forty nine ers plus one at the Dolphins.
I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
And you know, as I watched them against Houston, it's
just bubble screens. That's all they do. The two is
(35:49):
now throwing forty times a game. That's way too much
for two. With the teams like the Packers and the
Eagles have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw
twenty four times a game. I think the forty nine ers,
I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
nine ers. Here sharper square.
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
It's been bet down obviously from mean one and a
half to one. For a minute, very hot minute, the
Niners were favorites and then it sort of bounced back
a little bit. But that money that's moving it is
professional money in favor of the Niners. Not a huge
(36:29):
sort of feeling on that game. They just sort of
think that the Niners are probably a more physical team.
Are they getting more healthy? They don't believe in the
Dolphins is the bigger component of their thinking.
Speaker 1 (36:44):
Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor
and it was a blowout. They go home now and
have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
(37:05):
this week and I said, I think if you gave
Sam Darnold. With the Colts, they have the Viking season.
I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
for bow Knicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
(37:26):
the line is. I think they're going to come back.
I think they're I think Chris Ballard's jobs in the line,
Anthony Richardson's careers on the line, Shane Steichen with that
trick play that got a pick six. I think Indy
is inflamed, and I think they blow the Titans out
Sharper square.
Speaker 5 (37:46):
So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
at four and a half even when Will Levis was
possibly the quarterback. It's been beat down immediately with Mason
Rudolph as the quarterback. The Wise guys have liked the
Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson as
(38:09):
a favorite. Like, if you want to talk about comps,
the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage Right now,
Tim Tebow and Akille Smith in the past twenty five years.
This season will go down as one of the worst
in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
(38:32):
And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
he came back and he looked like he was a
little bit more in control. They were putting him in
better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
were winning that game in spite of him. And look
like I was on the Colts last week, Jonathan Taylor
(38:54):
dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, well, and
this was all happening. If you're watching red Zone, this
is like boom boom boom. It was just like gut
punch after cup punch after gut punch. As a better
but you felt like and I felt like Colts had
(39:14):
no chance to get back into that game after they
gave up the lead, because Anthony and Richardson can't win
you a game, so they're going to have to dominate
on the ground in order to cover this three and
a half. And at the end of the day, he
got to win by four points. That's a relatively big
number on what should be a run heavy game in
(39:35):
which the clock is running a lot. So I think
the wise guys are still like in Tennessee in the hook.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Part of me says I should love the Bears at
home plus six and a half against Detroit. Jared Goff
outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray,
more passing yards than Jalen Hurts, and hasn't had an
interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
the record, you would think he's awful and it's like, no, actually,
(40:06):
all things considered now that he's with the third coach
at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad. It is.
I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5 (40:25):
Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
it was at seven and a half and seven And
this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
talked about this you're just not getting the best of
the number, and long term, that's a bad way to
(40:45):
try to win games. You might win once in a while,
but long term you want to be on the right
side of the number. So the wise guys took the
seven and a half. They took the seven. I think
this is a really tricky game. At six and a
half is a home dog in the division. Of course,
I want to be on the Bears. I can't find
(41:06):
a way to get that. I'm not saying I'm going
to bet Detroit. But there's two schools of thought on
Jared Goff. Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors
is unbeatable. Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole.
But he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends
(41:26):
to not when he is outside, and he is a
covering machine over the past five years. I look at
this in a different way. Sure, their defense is beat up,
but all they have to do is hand the ball
to Jamiir Gibbs. Because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
like putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
(41:48):
single game no matter who they play. Saw it again,
last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
is going to come out in a bad mood and
try to prove that there's still the class of the NFC.
Run the ball down the bear's throat, and it doesn't
really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
(42:08):
tell you at six and a half, you're making a
good call.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
(42:36):
Wilson wanting a trade, the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
I mean why look, wise guys have been on the Jets.
Oh week.
Speaker 5 (42:56):
The wise guys have been on the Jets for much
of the year, and much to their dismay. Jeff Ulbrick,
the coach, seems to find ways to play them out
of wins and covers and then make the stupidest mistakes
that actually leads them into a cover that they never
should have covered. Right last week, he's going for the
(43:18):
touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks have two timeouts.
They end up covering the three point spread, winning by six,
when really he should have kneeled down and left no
time and kicked a field goal. Week before, making bad
decisions at the end of the game, they end up
losing the game to the Dolphins and not even covering
the three point spread because they lose by six in overtime.
So he's a menace when it comes to clock management,
(43:40):
and he's a menace for betters.
Speaker 2 (43:42):
But the wise guys do love the Jets.
Speaker 5 (43:45):
Right now, Aaron Rodgers has been playing significantly better the.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Past two weeks.
Speaker 5 (43:51):
You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're going
to feel better. And now he's got to come back
and play in the cold in New Jersey. But there
is something about the Rams and the fact that they
have to go into the cold too. Stafford does not
perform as well then. And also, this is a team
you get late in the year. You get teams that
(44:13):
are what I like to call good ish, right fifty
to sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're
playing bad teams on the road. That is a recipe
for disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying
they're going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
So the wise guys are definitely back in the Jets
this week.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
minus fourteen against the Saints just screams take the Packers.
I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
been a year of the favorites. I think the most
(44:54):
underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
They really believe it. I think they're a better team
this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
fourteen point favorites, but they're covering and favorites are covering,
(45:17):
and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
one of the few places where home field is still
three to three and a half points sharper square.
Speaker 5 (45:31):
Well, look, you're never gonna get a sharp confirmation on
a fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites
this week, the Packers over the Saints the Bills over
the Patriots. There's been more of a conversation around the
Bills as fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up
(45:54):
to fourteen and a half, and that was very much
professionals betting on the Bills a team. Then it came
down then some professionals, not a whole lot of them,
but a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what
half a point too far the Packers, Like, sure, there's
nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
(46:16):
but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Everything you just said, everyone agrees with.
Speaker 2 (46:21):
It's why.
Speaker 5 (46:22):
Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
against the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (46:27):
That was my favorite.
Speaker 2 (46:29):
Yeah, yeah, mine too. It's your only bet.
Speaker 5 (46:31):
I won last week and so they were on him
at two and a half. That was a great spot
for the Packers, right. They had just lost a really
hard game to the Lions, and I think that game
gave them the confidence that you just talked about. You
saw the mastery with which Lafour calls a game. Jordan
Love has been much more cautious with the ball, hasn't
(46:52):
been throwing interceptions. I think the Packers believe they are
in the same class as the Vikings and the Lions
and the Eagles, and I'd be hard pressed to disagree.
I think it's harder to win as to touchdown favorites
against a Saints team that like from a from a
from a wise guy perspective. They just don't like this
(47:15):
game as much as they would like the Bills and
the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
to you.
Speaker 1 (47:24):
Yeah. Please.
Speaker 5 (47:26):
So this is the win, Josh Allen the MVP game. Right,
there's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP. And
you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways. Right, they
(47:49):
are a team that has a winning record as big
favorites in these games in the division, outside the division
at home, they tend they don't play down to the
level of the competition. Their offense can do whatever it
wants against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early,
(48:09):
their record against the spread it's like seven and twenty
one the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
They cannot recover. So if the Bills get out to
lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
(48:31):
the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
Speaker 2 (48:41):
There's just a lot of turmoil there.
Speaker 5 (48:43):
So the wise guys, if they're betting a big favorite,
they're more inclined to bet the Bills than the Packers.
Speaker 1 (48:55):
All Right, I want to talk some college football now,
because I do think in Indiana, Notre Dame and a
lot of its weather, I think it's going to be
pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
(49:16):
competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
(49:40):
and I think Indiana is going to So I really
like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 5 (49:46):
Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
betting Indiana and Indiana's look been a covering machine this year. Yes,
obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge. They
also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at a
time when Michigan was starting to get better. And the
next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
(50:06):
So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State
Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 2 (50:17):
I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and
the way.
Speaker 5 (50:20):
Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
and the time and look, you can't help but listen
to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
and has got his players playing this game with a
huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 2 (50:38):
And we've talked about this.
Speaker 5 (50:41):
One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
it was able to achieve when other teams that are
leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
bring in five star recruits who are going to be
there for a year and go to the NFL. They
(51:01):
brought in guys who are just really good at college football.
And this is a great college football game. And there
is a nuanced difference when I say a college football
game here, that's the style of game this is gonna be.
It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution,
it's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
but the people who do their jobs the best.
Speaker 2 (51:22):
So I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1 (51:24):
I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
(51:44):
SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm gonna
take Texas minus twelve. I think this. Remember Clemson doesn't
go to the transfer portal. They have holes. Yeah, Texas
out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal. And
(52:06):
also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I don't
think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think they'll
go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause going forward.
I like Texas to roll here sharper square.
Speaker 5 (52:20):
Totally sharp, Like if you're looking I'm looking in the
Action app right now. It's just checking it out and
you can see in the app, you can see the
betting tickets and you can see the money percentages on
each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
(52:41):
twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas.
And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
with you. That defense they have is us fierce, Like
(53:02):
they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
champion would have been Texas. So, like, that defense is
so freaking good and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
(53:23):
talking about like guys who've been playing college football for
a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1 (53:30):
So the game, I'm going to ask you to handicap.
I don't get the line. So the line is telling
me Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much.
So Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's
offensive line, meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and
it may only be fifteen degrees. But this line is
(53:54):
telling me that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State
is pissed and Ryan Day's jobs on the line, and
Josh Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is
a warm weather SEC team, So the line is telling
me that Ohio State's gonna win this comfortably. That's what
it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
(54:15):
a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
I mean, Tennessee's the best rushing team in the SEC
going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they?
Speaker 2 (54:29):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (54:30):
Yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
and that is because it's been It's kind of the
advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
situations that you just talked about, And there is some
feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
(54:54):
It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds. Wise,
guys took the six and a half. They bet Tennessee
at six and a half, right, but there was so
much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that it
moved up.
Speaker 2 (55:12):
So Ryan Day is in a spot. And we've talked
about this.
Speaker 5 (55:16):
There was a story in the Wall Street Journal today
about Ohio State fans people calling in to local radio
about Max Crosby, who know the Lions, the Raiders defensive
lineman who's out for the year. On his podcast, he's
a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how he wants
(55:37):
the team to lose so they get rid of Ryan Day.
That is a weird thing to be talking about when
you've got a coach who has won as much as
he has. But I think you and I agree every
game for him is going to be a must win game.
And unless they win the championship or they get there
and they are so dominant, and he puts himself in
(55:59):
a position even if they lose, it's a way to
rebuild the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And
he hasn't beaten them, and they haven't gotten over it,
you know.
Speaker 1 (56:10):
I think sometimes one of the things I love about
sports is when there's cultural changes. I like to be
I like to predict what they are. I love the
theories and my systems on like what's changing. So something's
happening in college football, and college football fans don't yet
know it. So in the NFL, it's almost understood that
(56:31):
you've got to give a staff a couple of years, right, Like,
there's just it's just really hard. The margins are thin. Well,
I think the Ohio States and the Georgia's and the
Texas fans. You know, you've always been able to line
up and just beat teams. And one of the reasons
is over a long season is your backups were as
good as their starters. And football's regulated the level levels
(56:53):
of violence. So there's college and pro. There's injuries, but
the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated depth at the
blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when you do suffer
injuries and the season is now longer than ever, your
backups are produced starters, that's all they are. And so
(57:14):
these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame, these big
traditional powers as the season goes on, I mean, look
at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States in IT,
SMUs in IT, Boise States in IT, like, and these
these are live dogs like and so I don't think
quite college football fans understand not only are players getting
(57:36):
paid that it looks more like pro football, but your
backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense now has
six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it was excellent.
And so what and what what creates that the salary cap?
You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody has depth
(57:57):
in the NFL. You either like Philadelphia's got great front
line starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the same offense. Right,
Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense. We've almost
understood that in pro football you need your starters. And
when you get injury plagged Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
have good college That was never the point. Top ten
(58:20):
teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
move a guard to left tackle. They're all lion stakes.
It's Iowa at best.
Speaker 5 (58:35):
So you're you're totally right, that's an on the field problem,
but culturally for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
(58:59):
had so much much meaning because there was a lot
on the line.
Speaker 2 (59:04):
You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 5 (59:06):
I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
and that's all you care about. Because college football has
always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
(59:27):
literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
their self worth on, have built their fandom on. They
need to move on from those really meaning anything because
(59:49):
they kind of don't. If Io State loses to Michigan
for the next ten years, but they win the national
title in five of those years, is that going to
be better or worse? As a fan Like, they need
to come to grips with a new reality of what
these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
because they used to mean everything. It wasn't just about
(01:00:09):
beating Michigan. It was about beating Michigan and what it
meant for winning the Big Ten and going to the
Rose Bowl, or what it meant for winning the Big
Ten and then being in the College Football Playoff or
winning the BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 2 (01:00:22):
Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 5 (01:00:24):
So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
(01:00:45):
going to mean as much to him twenty years from
now as they do to me and my friends who
also went to Indiana?
Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
Probably not.
Speaker 1 (01:00:51):
Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
would label your favorite.
Speaker 5 (01:00:57):
H Well, look, I'm middle Kansas City, So I bet
Kansas City plus two and a half on Sunday night
and then and you mean you know it was plus
two and a half, like on Monday morning. I'm sorry
when the news about what was happening with Holmes was
still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a half point underdogs,
so I bet him two and a half, and then
(01:01:19):
when it became clear that he was going to be playing.
This was yesterday afternoon, the game got up to three
and a half. I bet the Texans at plus three
and a half. So the majority of my money is
trying to get that middle right. But I also bet
the Jets three and a half. That's one that I like.
I really like the Steelers at six and a half.
(01:01:40):
So if I like, I'll put in my five favorite picks.
The Steelers will be in there. The Jets will definitely
be in there. Dallas I bet at four and a half.
I like Dallas a lot against Tampa. I think there's
a lot of inflation this week, and I think that's
one of the bigger games where Dallas has been playing better.
(01:02:04):
Like the last three weeks, last four weeks, that Cincinnati
game kind of looks like a fluke, right. They lost
that game, They've won the three other games. Micah Parsons
has seven and a half sacks since he's back. Deron
bland Is back in the secondary. That defense is getting
a lot better. Cooper Rush at Home Controlled Environment. Tampa
(01:02:25):
Bay just put up forty on the chargers that inflated
that line a little bit so. Dallas is another one
that I'm un paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
Chad Millman Sharper Square, I love it, buddy.
Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 4 (01:02:41):
The volume
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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