Colin reacts to the Rams beating the Vikings on Thursday Night Football!
He explains why the Rams are still very much in contention in the NFC West and why they shouldn’t be looking to shop Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, and why Sam Darnold just isn’t on the same level as a quarterback like Stafford despite his great season (3:00)
Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 8 of the NFL season!
22:00 - Cardinals vs Dolphins
25:00 - Colts vs Texans
28:15 - Seahawks vs Bills
30:30 - Bears vs Commanders
33:15 - Eagles vs Bengals
40:45 - 49ers vs Cowboys
43:30 - Giants vs Steelers
45:45 - Jets vs Patriots
47:45 - Ravens vs Browns
50:00 - Packers vs Jaguars
50:30 - Lions vs Titans
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? Well, that
was a great Thursday night football game. I've got so
many thoughts on it. Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings thirty
(01:07):
to twenty. That's as bad a missed call in a
big spot in an NFL game that I've seen in
a long time. Fans tend to get worked up over
pass interference calls, but those are subjective. That's like an
NBA game. You know, you could call foul every time
down the floor, you could call PI every time the
(01:28):
balls down the sideline, but a face masking call. I mean, hell,
Kirk Kerbstreet saw it. We all saw it on television.
Like Donald's head, get Yang back now. I don't think
they were going to drive ninety seven yards score a touchdown.
The Rams defensive front which is really young Aaron Donald left,
but they have stocked at the last two years with
(01:48):
really good players, young Verse on the front, Kobe Turner,
a lot of good players, and so I don't think
Donald was driving down to score a touchdown and the
two point conversion on the road. Nonetheless, that's a bad miss.
You know, there's so many things to start. First of all,
this week, they rumors came out that Cooper Cup and
Matt Stafford were on the trade block. Cooper Cup, I
(02:10):
believe you see how often they targeted Puka Nakua. He's
their future. Cooper Cup's good, but he's brittle, he struggles.
He's like an old NBA player. He struggles on like
back to back games on turf. You know, he's a guy.
Ideally for him and his body, you'd play him about
ten weeks a year. But for a good team, like
(02:31):
a Pittsburgh team that's playing well, now you get a
third fourth round pick for Cooper Cup. With Pickens on
the sideline routes, you'd have a real team. You know
he would be a boost. But for the Rams, you
know they're going to extract everything they can the rest
of the year. I don't know if they'll move him.
I think the Rams. I said this today on FS one.
(02:53):
There's no question in that division. San Francisco is not
as good as they were. Nobody's gonna trust Gino Smith
in Seattle. Arizona can be great and awful in the
same game. The Rams are now three and four. Remember
last year slow start, they won seven of their last eight,
got into the playoffs, and they they were a play
away from beating Detroit. So this idea of trading Cooper Cup,
(03:15):
I get it because of Puka Nakua, and I did
not expect Poka Naku would have played tonight. That's why
I had the vikings and the under on the Rams.
I didn't think Pooka n Aka was going to play.
And you know, he's just total game changer. It's it's
he's not justin Jefferson great, but he's a he's a
ten target, eight catch guy weekly basis for ninety five
to one hundred and fifteen yards. He's just a special player.
(03:37):
Fifth round or two. But the Matt Stafford trade rumors
are just don't make any sense to me. He's got
this year and next year under contract, then they can
walk away. But there's just not There's nobody in the
next two college drafts that is close to this. And
Sean McVay almost walked away from the NFL a couple
of years ago to take an Amazon job as a broadcaster.
(03:59):
He didn't want to start over with some you know,
half of these first round quarterbacks don't make it this
coming up draft, you know, I mean, I can see
the Rams in the third or fourth round taking Riley
Leonard out of Notre Dame, sitting them behind Stafford for
a year or two. But if you're not getting Shader Sanders,
I don't see anybody in this quarterback drafts that's going
to play immediately and excel at the NFL level. I
(04:20):
just don't. And that's what my couple sources who I've
talked about in the executive suites in the NFL tell me.
It's just this last draft was great quarterback draft. Next
two are just okay. So I mean Stafford four touchdowns,
twenty three to thirty two, nine different receivers, twenty seven
first downs. They're not getting rid of him. And I
said this last year and I'll say it again. They
(04:42):
need a number one corner. The Rams doing the draft,
they need a draft a sideline receiver, a speed receiver,
and they need another offensive tackle and probably another safety
for depth. But they're not that far away. If they hit,
they have a first and two thirds. If they hit
on those picks, team could win the Super Bowl. I
don't think there are a super Bowl team this year
(05:03):
at three and four, but Minnesota is a good team
and the Rams controlled that second half. So I just
I just don't. I don't buy into I don't buy
into Matt Stafford's moving. And I've said this before. Just
think about Aaron Rodgers. So Matt Stafford was a much
better high school player than Aaron Rodgers and a much
better college player than Aaron Rodgers, and was better than
(05:24):
Aaron Rodgers their first four years in the league. And
then you know, Aaron's with the Packers, Stafford's with the
you know, bankrupt Lions, and you know, Stafford struggles to
win in the same division. Rodgers is, you know, out
of this world. For green Band deserves all the credit.
But what happens if Stafford the next two years makes
(05:45):
the makes the Rams a viable super Bowl team. It's
not unheard of San Francisco's peak. We don't trust Philadelphia's coach.
The Lions are the best team. But in a big spot,
Dan Campbell, Jared goff or mcvahan, Stafford with no Aiden Hutchison,
that game gets a lot closer. So I just look
at it and I think to myself, Stafford's here, load
(06:08):
up on draft picks the next two years, try to
have some hits. You know, the Rams defense is so
young that they can spend some money in free agency.
This year, they're not spending anything on defense. I mean,
those guys are all free, they're cheap. They got a
lot of second, third, fourth, fifth rounders all over that defense.
They're not paying anybody right now now that Aaron Donald's gone.
(06:29):
As far as the Vikings go, you know, Sam Donald
was fine outplayed in the second half. But it really
is interesting. So you know, we all kind of picked,
you know, Detroit green Bay to be the best in
the division, and then the Bears and the Vikings to
round it out. And I had said if the Vikings
finished fourth, it's the most talented offensive fourth place team
in the history of the NFL. They're not going to
(06:50):
finish fourth, I think, but I do think, and they've
got winnable games coming up. You know, they've got Titans, Jags, Colts, Arizona,
Bears twice, Seattle. You know, Vikings are a good team,
but I do think Detroit's got a better roster and
is a better team. And you saw it last week
when they played. And I think green Bay is so young,
we're not seeing the best version of green Bay. I
think over the next eight weeks, Packers are just going
(07:11):
to get better and better and better better. And I
wouldn't be shocked if they if they got to a
super Bowl. I don't see them as a super Bowl
winning team this year, but it wouldn't shock me. They're
so young. Every time you watch green Bay they look better.
And that's the advantage of having a bunch of twenty
four year olds and twenty five year olds who are
just into their prime. Detroit's a little older, more seasoned,
and that's why I like Detroit if they met in
(07:33):
like like a playoff game, But you know, what do
you do with Stafford? So my guess is if the
Vikings end up being a good team winning ten games,
but they finish third because the Vikings, you know, I
don't think they're Detroit or Green Bay at their best.
And remember the Vikings may have just lost their left
tackle for some time. Cross your fingers on that. But
(07:55):
Darnold will have a market. I mean the last several years,
think about the quarterbacks who have had a market, Old Brady, Matt, Stafford,
Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins. Darnald will have a market. Now,
somebody may overpay for him. You're not going to get
this Donald, He's not going to have this left tackle
justin Jefferson, this coach you know, probably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins,
(08:17):
and you're not getting that Donald. But I think he'll
be somewhere between the mess in New York and the Vikings,
and he's a really coachable, likable kid. But you see
it to night when you put him on the field
with Stafford, Stafford is the better quarterback. I mean, Stafford's
got nine different receivers, his pre snap stuff. I mean,
the guy is just Matt is just insanely gifted. But
(08:37):
he has you know, he didn't have a brand. He
doesn't give a rip. He just loves football as family
and that's you know, he's not controversial. He doesn't talk
about conspiracy theories. He's just not who he is.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Man.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He's just a good old Texas Southern guy loves football
and family and keeps it quiet. But Donald will have
a market, and I think JJ McCarthy, who had a
great preseason, is kind of their future. And I think,
you know, if Donald gets the ten wins, ten to
eleven wins, that's a second third round pick. I don't
think you're gonna get a first for him. But Donald
(09:09):
will have a market. But they didn't draft JJ McCarthy
to move off him. So but I did think tonight
when you see Donald, and he's not reckless, he's gotten
the reckless out of him. But when you see him
on the same field with like a golf last week
or a Matt Stafford this week. He just doesn't feel
quite that. And I think Kevin O'Connell, who's a quarterback coach,
(09:30):
I think a lot of people like Sam Darnold, but
to give a guy a bag, you have to love
your quarterback, and so he'll have a market. I think
the Vikings will pull back a little, but again they're
both the Rams schedule and the Viking schedule. There's a
lot of wins. The other thing on the Rams tonight
they got Pooka Cooper cut back, but the interior of
their offensive line they're still missing two starters. So this
(09:51):
Rams team, which has a young, young, aggressive, talented defense
and a really good offensive line top five or six
in the league when healthy. So the Rams now are
starting to get healthy. Puka a surprise starter tonight, big,
big production. Just to give you a sense of how
valuable Poka Nakua is, and I didn't think he'd played tonight.
(10:13):
The Rams have won eight of the last nine games.
Pooka Nicua has played the only loss overtime loss on
the road to Baltimore, and with that win, the San
Francisco forty nine ers are now in last place in
the NFC West. How about that? But just watching Stafford
(10:35):
out there, Spinet, he is really really special. If you
ask yourself now that Brady's out of the league and
Breeze is out of the league, and I said to
you final drive, minute thirty one time out, final drive,
you'd take Mahomes, I'd argue I'd take Stafford second. He's
certainly in the argument. You know you'd take him. I
(10:56):
think over Lamar be is Lamar's lack of playoff success.
You know, Josh Allen a bigger, stronger athlete, but again
lack of playoffs success. I love Joe Burrow, but Burrow,
you know, I mean he may not make the playoffs
this year, and he's had some injuries. I mean, I
name the quarterbacks in the league. Minute thirty one time
(11:16):
out left have to go eighty four yards. I mean
it's Mahomes one. Stafford's on a short list at number two.
So the trade rumors kind of silly to me. And
I also think, you know, when you get we're always
trying to bum rush all these older guys out and
Stafford certainly had some injuries, but you watch his legs,
you watch his arms. He's obviously motivated. He's one of
(11:38):
the best pre snap guys in the league. You know
this isn't a guy that I mean he his wife
made a remark earlier, I think this year or late
last year about how young his teammates are. Yes, the
Rams are doing the Kansas City Chiefs model. They're going
to pay for offense. They are going to just keep
drafting defense, and I think the Rams defense, like the
(11:59):
Packers off is just going to get better the longer
the season goes. I think the Packers offense by week
thirteen could be the best offense in the league. It's
already one of the best. I think this Rams defense
is just getting better every time I see him. So
good win for the Rams tonight. Three to four. Minnesota
is still a good team with a lot of w's left.
(12:20):
But I don't think the Rams are selling I don't
Cooper Cup. If somebody offered you a second third, youd
take it. But I don't think people are going to
do that brittle expensive I think they may get a
fourth round pick and at that point just keep him,
just go win football games. I mean, he made a
huge catch up the sideline tonight late. That was a
big catch, So congrats to the Rams. Chad Millman, Sharp
(12:45):
or Square? Who does he like? Who do I like?
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Speaker 1 (14:10):
Time for another edition of Sharp or Square, Chad Millman
CCO Action Network. I pushed at two to two and one.
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I have
been last couple of weeks, I've been moving toward best quarterback.
I do think defensive players statistically get hurt more than
(14:30):
offensive players. Defenses can weaken, and the quarterbacks separate. Coaching
quarterbacks separate this time every year. If you go look
at the AFC, the best quarterbacks lead each division. Kirk
Cousins leads his. By the way, if you look at
the quarterbacks playing best, I think eventually Jordan Love will
(14:50):
lead his division. That's the time of the year we're in.
So let me throw out a game that is fascinating,
and this really highlight lights how important numbers are. So Historically,
quarterbacks off concussions don't play their best the first week back.
But Arizona Miami at three and a half, I'm out.
(15:13):
But Arizona is the most inconsistent team in the league.
They often have the best quarters followed by the worst halfs.
If it's minus two and a half or minus three Miami,
I like them because Arizona High Low Hilow just beat
a team that I think is better than them, the
Chargers and Hardball. So what I feel is like, Oh,
(15:36):
here they go short week Monday night. Here they go
cross country. You lose it in prep. Here is Tua.
McDaniel played terribly with absolutely something to prove. They are
going to flex at They're going to keep starters into
the last play. That game interests me like Miami not
(15:57):
only needs to win, they've been so bad for a month.
They want to sell to that locker room. We are
a great team. This is a new page and a
new team forget the last month. Game fascinates me. I
would take Miami minus three, but the hook because of
concussions and the numbers behind those scare me. What are
(16:18):
the sharps think on this.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Now, It's like you are inside a professional better war room,
because that is the exact conversation earlier this week. This
line opened at three and a half, Arizona was the underdog.
The professional betters bet Arizona at three and a half.
When it got to three and it even touched two
(16:42):
and a half, professional betters started coming in on Miami,
and I apologize for people listening to my voice. It
sounds worse than it is. Don't worry. I'm gonna be fine.
The point is, Miami is the team professional betters are
backing for every reason you just said. They believe Tua
(17:04):
will make this team better. More importantly, they aren't believing
in Kyler Murray as a consistent winning quarterback going cross
country to play the Dolphins in a desperate, desperate situation.
So the wise guys are on Miami. Yeah, desperate spot,
you gotta win.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And I really do believe Miami. Mike McDaniels has to
rebrand this team fast because they've been the worst team
in the league for about a month and they have.
And also they're watching the Patriots fall apart and the
Jets fall apart, so it's like, guys, let's see second place,
first assignment Sunday. Let me get me.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Last week, I was sitting in an airport and I
was going over my notes for the favorites to the show,
and I couldn't remember who was playing quarterback for the
Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
That's how off the radar there.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I had to look up literally Miami Dolphins starting quarterback,
and you know what came up, Tua. Google didn't even
know who the starting quarterback for Miami was. That's how
sort of forgotten they've been. So you're one hundred percent right.
They need to reframe who they are right now.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Okay, Colts in a desperate spot plus five rival game
at the Texans, the Green Bay game, there's a little
bit of a red flag on Houston.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
So CJ.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Strouds in year two clearly needs Joe Mixon and Nico
Collins to be completed. He's getting worse protection. If you
watch the pass attempts and you watch the coaching, they're
getting a little conservative with him. It tells you that
if they're not completely healthy, the staff doesn't necessarily trust him.
(18:43):
Yet Conversely, Jordan Love throws ugly picks early that laflor
doubles down throw it more. They know they've got farv
on their hands. Jordan Love is an aggressive thrower, and
Lafleur totally backs in. But the way their coach Siege
Jay Stroud is telling me they're a little concerned with
(19:04):
the elements around him and sometimes as a second year player,
he needs though, he needs those the nicos, the Joe
mixons to fortify his game. So I'm going to take
the Colts plus five. It was six on DraftKings all
or odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
Yeah, it's totally sharp.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
In fact, it went from six and a half to six,
to five and a half to five. It's now at
four and a half in some places. Wise, guys have
been pounding the Colts. I'm going to take your theory
about better quarterback and expand it because that obviously isn't
the case in this scenario. But I do think one
(19:43):
of the reasons why the public has been winning so
much in the past two weeks. The public meaning if
there are more than fifty one percent of the bets
on one side that is a public side. For the
first five weeks of the year, the public was having
its worse season in the twenty years we've been tracking
(20:03):
this at Action Network the past two weeks. The public
is twenty two zero seven and one complete and total reversal.
Obviously Houston is going to be the public side here.
But what normally happens is bad quarterbacks and bad teams
with big numbers find a way to cover, and they
haven't been. This is a situation where I'm extrapolating. I
(20:25):
think it's more about good coaching and dominant unit. So
you have in the Colts the number one run blocking
unit in the NFL. You may get Jonathan Taylor back,
you practiced yesterday for the first time off of that
high ankle spring. You've got a great, great play caller
in Shane Steichen who last year almost got the Cults
(20:46):
of the playoff with Gardner Minshew. And by the way,
has this team at four and three and one game
out of the first place in the AFC South behind
the Texans, who they only lost two by two points
thread of this year. So that is why the wise guys.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Are coming in.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
One trend for you division favorites the past eight years
forty six against the spread, So it's also a good spot.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
One more underdog Seattle plush three against the Bills. So Seattle,
we haven't seen a lot of Seattle when they're healthy
upfront defensively, but boy did Kirk Cousins see that last week.
This is a really good defensive coach with some really
(21:31):
tasty defensive personnel. They're also getting their top cornerback. When
I look at Gino Smith, I look at him two ways.
With time and a run game. He's highly effective when
rushed sometimes on the road. He's not Buffalo is not
(21:52):
a team. Although I like him, I don't trust them.
They're a much better version of Arizona and at home
healthy a field goal. I this is hard for me
to turn down three and a half. It's one of
the best bets of the week. At three, I'd roll
(22:13):
with it. The Seahawks sharper square, so it's square.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
The wise guys are on Buffalo, but I will tell you,
I'm with you. I don't understand why they're on Buffalo.
You know, we've talked about this before. We do a
segment on our show called Sharp Calls on Tuesday, we
talk about all the games. By Thursday, when we do
the next episode of the week, we've got feedback from
(22:38):
a lot of professional betters with their opinions on what
we talked about on Tuesday, and we will review those
on the show. Seattle Buffalo was one of the games
that we loved on Tuesday, and on Thursday we were
getting a lot of calls from professional betters so that
they weren't buying Seattle's defense, they weren't buying Gino Smith,
and they liked Josh Allen and the year that he's
(22:58):
having no interception hasn't thrown an interception in nine games,
which is coming close to record breaking status. Right, But
I am with you, like the Bills beat up on
bad teams, yes, and they they use or struggle against
good teams. So if you're betting Seattle, then you are
basically taking a stand that you think Seattle is a
(23:21):
good team. And there is some evidence of that they
have gotten healthier, but there's evidence that they're a bad
team too, right, So I think that's what the wise
guys are playing here, that they just don't believe Seattle
is a very good team yet.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
All right, all right, let's go to some favorites. Bears
minus two and a half at the Commanders, even if
Jaden Daniels plays, He's not at one hundred percent, and
you could you could clearly see with the Giants next
week if Jade and Daniels plays, gets dinged pass rush
pretty good for Chicago, you could see them saying we're
going to Mariota, We're going to go into divisional play.
(23:54):
We got no interest. I think the Bears defense because
we're so fixated on calob and he's by the way,
he is building real rapport here with his offensive set.
I think the Bears defense is pretty well coached. Again,
it's a numbers game. I think if Jaden Daniels plays,
it will be mass protection. It will be a game
(24:18):
in which they coach him more safely, they call a
game differently. He's the difference in the franchise. And I
think it's one of these games you look at and
you think, listen, if we had to not play him,
I mean, he hasn't practiced this week. Even if he
practices Friday, you kind of wonder what you get. I like,
(24:42):
Chicago minus two and a half here, pretty strong play
Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
Yeah, that's the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
And look, the betters are are almost literally banking on
the idea that Jaden Daniels isn't going to play in
this game because he hasn't practiced, and there is a
there is a massive difference between Jade and Daniels and
Marcus Marrios. The Commanders have only punted twelve times this season.
That's tied with the Chiefs for the fewest since nineteen fifty.
(25:13):
They're perfect on fourth downs. They're fifty percent on third
down conversions. That is because of Jaden Daniels. That is
because of the threat that he poses. That is because
of what he can do as both a very accurate
passer and a good runner. Without that, this is a
different team. It stresses the defense, which isn't very good
(25:34):
even from a statistical point of view, but they don't
look as bad when Jaden Daniels is converting fourth downs
and converting third towns. There's fewer opportunities for the opposing
offense to get on the field and score points.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Kayleb Williams has.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Been a brilliant quarterback the past four weeks and by
the way, in the second half, he's covering the spread
at a rate that is only compared only matched by
Patrick Mahomes right now. So this coming off of by
this team in this spot, it is a really good
time to bet the Bears at minus two and a half.
(26:08):
The wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1 (26:13):
The Eagles are the only team in the league that
hasn't scored in the first quarter, and that matters when
they go on the road to face Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow,
when he doesn't have to throw, but chooses to throw,
is as good as any quarterback in this league. All
quarterbacks when they're in a hole, face a different defensive.
Speaker 4 (26:34):
Test.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Philadelphia, if they score, doesn't take big leagues. They're probably
the most underachieving offense in the league based on personnel
and productivity. So here's a team in Cincinnati which has
shown an ability to start quickly. I think Philadelphia has
got much better players, but at minus two and a half,
(26:58):
basically season on the line, with Baltimore winning, Pittsburgh winning,
this is the season for Cincinnati at home. I only
give up two and a half against what I think
is one of the more poorly coached teams in the league,
yet one of the best rosters. I'll take the Bengals
minus two and a half. Sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
The public is on the Eagles, and this line has
moved up. That's called the reverse line move. When the
line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority
of the bets are. That tells you the professional betters
are coming in on the side of the team that
the line moved in the direction of. That is the
Bengals open to two. It's now at two and a half.
(27:37):
This is a bet on Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Yep, that's all like.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
He's twenty two six and one against the spread when
facing a team that just covered. Overall in his career,
he's sixty three percent. He's seventy percent against teams that
are over five hundred. The challenge here is everyone should
be and has been, concerned about the Bengals defense.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
But two things.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
The Bengals defense has been really good defending against the
long pass and explosive plays. Yeah, that's the best way
for the Eagles to win. We've seen it time and again.
When they get the explosive plays, that's when they can
break it out. The rest of the time, their offense
isn't very good. We even sought against the Giants last week.
So the pros are with you. They're back ining Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
So you know, I love the number five. When a
team is favored by four and a half to five,
I feel like it's a graveyard for books that they
don't want to go to that number. But they're kind
of trapped. So San Francisco's at home. Dallas has not
matched up well against better teams. Now Deebo had pneumonia
as a pro athlete, I think he's available Sunday. I
(28:53):
think Jennings is available. Jordan Mason's the second leading rusher
in the league. He's a more than capable back. Teams
that are well coached with talent that deliver a stinker
in the biggest TV game of the week always play.
It's an easy team to coach hard. They will play
a much better football game. They're limited. No Brandon Ayuk,
(29:15):
no Christian They're limited, but I think they feel they
not only lost to the Chiefs, they were kind of embarrassed.
It was really a bad performance. I'm gonna swallow the
four and a half and take the Niners at home.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Sharper Square, Well, you said something there that is a
little bit too flip and dismissive. No Brandon Ayuk, no
Christian McCaffrey. They might not have Deebo Samuel because the
guy has pneumonia like he was in the freaking hospital.
If you look at Rock Perdy's production, a third of
(29:51):
his production during the time he's been starting has been
going to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Ayuk. If you include
Deebo Samuel, fifty percent going to those three guys. You
take away those three guys, and you know what you get.
Brock Purdy and what he did against the Kansas City Chiefs,
Like Ricky Pearsall is not Brandon Io.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
I don't know if Rickey Pearsall can play right.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Ronnie Bell is not Deebo Samuel. It doesn't matter how
hard Kyle Shanahan coaches these guys this week. If they
can't play, they can't play. So that's the real issue.
It's why the wise guys took the Cowboys at six
and a half, took him at five and a half,
took them at five down to four and a half.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
This thing's going to four.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I would not be surprised if it's at three and
a half by Sunday, because the wise guy money is
coming in on the Cowboys.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
Then that's Ethan.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
With all the chaos of Jerry Jones calling out Mike McCarthy,
who he could have fired after the Packers blew out
the Cowboys, and now he's upset with McCarthy's play calling.
The Cowboys are still inside, by the way, McCarthy thirteen
three and one off of the buy against the spread.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
Okay, so a game. I want your opinion on this.
It seems easy. So when Malik Neighbors was out or
Cavon Thibadeaux for the Giants, it sounds alarming. But the
player that really decides the fate of this team is
Andrew Thomas. When bad quarterbacks don't have a left tackle,
(31:32):
they get hideous fast. The Giants are now last year's Giants,
right they They competed without Malik, with Dexter Lawrence, they
compete without Theibadeaux. I don't think they're a competitive football team.
So I get the Steelers for the record. The second
half against the Jets twenty four to nothing. New York's
(31:53):
goot players. It was a little old Russell Wilson. He's
now got a deep a run game. Arthur Smith, he
had protection moving well. We know the defense and motivations there.
I know it doesn't feel sharp, but Pittsburgh minus six
hosting a Giants team. Shane and Dable have been given
(32:14):
assurance by the owner. You're not going anywhere. It's not
a frenetic behind the scenes thing. Neither wants Daniel Jones.
I cannot bet Daniel Jones stand alone on the road
without his left tackle. It feels like the minus six
is sharp Steelers sharper square.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
It's eh like, no one's really interested in this game.
If it wasn't a primetime game, it'd be the Corner
TV game because the Giants are that bad. And you're
right about Andrew Thomas, Like we've talked about this. When
I'm handicapping and doing analysis, the first thing I'm looking
at is the offensive line. One of the reasons I
(32:55):
like the Bengals against the Eagles is because Jordan Malatta
is out and he's being replaced with a guy named
Fred Johnson.
Speaker 4 (33:02):
He gives up.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
His pressure rate as a left tackle is twenty two
percent against opposing defensive ends. The average is six percent.
Offensive lines dictate your ability to run the ball, protect
the quarterback.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
Score.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
It's why I love the Lions so much. It's why
we love them so much. Last weekends the Vikings, It's
why we hate them. We hate the Giants against the Eagles.
I hate the Giants against the Steelers too. It's not
a great spot like a team that's been blown out
against a team that did the blowing out. That's a
bad formula if you want to be a better it's
(33:37):
very public to take the Steelers right now. I'm not
saying it's the wrong side, but it's not the sharp side.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Okay, there's always a game. I'm interested in your opinion.
Jets minus seven at New England. They humiliated New England
the first time. Drake may look pretty good last week.
The Jets are a surcus I mean it's they look
like they're significantly worse on defense without their best coach,
Robert Sola. He was their best coach. They're not as
(34:04):
good in the two games defensively without him. Offensively, the
first game they used motion. Aaron Rodgers doesn't like it.
By the second game, with a new coordinator, their motion
was cut in half. That is so Aaron. He doesn't
like motion. He wants to go to the line, keep
it clean all make the call. It's begging me to
(34:24):
take New England. Tell me where I should go.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
Well, if you want to bet this game, which you
shouldn't want to and you definitely should not want to
make it one of your blaze in five because you're
on a streak right now.
Speaker 4 (34:39):
You take New England.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
You've got Drake May, he's proving he can throw the ball.
You've got a depleted Jets secondary, which we saw last week.
Like every single play I felt like another Jets player
was going out. Even Sauce Gardner got banged up a
little bit in last week's game.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
But you don't want to play this game. Oka.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
There are four big ish underdogs this week, the Jets,
the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders. There are two games wise,
guys want to play the underdogs, one game they completely
want to ignore, and one game in which they want
to play the favorites, the Patriots Jets is the game
they want to ignore.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
All right, you always give me a game that I
miss completely, what say you?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Well, look, we talked about some good ones since the
Indie I love those games. We talked about Chicago. We
haven't talked about Cleveland and Las Vegas and their matchups
against the Ravens and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (35:41):
One I can't stomach both. Just give me one. Pick one.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
It's so hard, Like the wise guys love them both.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
At this point, you're better off just betting the number,
and like it's a little bit more of a number
higher number with the Raiders and the Chiefs than it
is with the Browns and the Ravens. I lean If
I have to choose only one of them, I lean Browns.
(36:10):
I think they're closer to getting better. And again subscribing
to the theory that if I'm going to bet on
a really bad team that is a big underdog, I
want that team to at least have one dominant unit.
And the Browns do have a dominant defensive end in
Miles Garrett, who wasn't even on the injury report this week.
They have a dominant cornerback and Denzel Ward who's been
(36:33):
playing great all season long. The Ravens do give up
a lot of points this most points in the second
half this season along with the Titans, so there is
an opportunity for Jamis if he decides to go crazy
in the second half for them to pull off a
backdoor cover. I worry about the Raiders. Mahomes has a
(36:55):
bad record as a favorite or more than three record
has been getting better the past two seasons. He's nine
to six and one against the spread as a favorite
of more than three the past two seasons. So you
got to look at it not just holistically, but in
some recency. And this team, they're turning the ball over,
they can't get off, they can't stay on the field
(37:17):
on third down. I just worry they're not going to
have that many opportunities to score against the Chiefs defense
that is pretty good. So the one thing they have
going for them is brock Bauers has the most receptions
for a rookie tight end since two thousand and the
one thing the Chiefs haven't been able to do this year.
(37:37):
They couldn't guard Kittle, they couldn't guard Isaiah Likely, they
couldn't guard Mike Kiseki. For the Bengals, all of them
had either close to one hundred or just under one
hundred yards receiving, but none of them won the game.
So I lean Browns if I have to choose one
of them, I don't want to, but that's what I
(37:57):
would do.
Speaker 1 (37:58):
By the way, Packers is three and a half at
the Jaguars. Screams Jags, doesn't it?
Speaker 2 (38:04):
Yes on it Screamshags so much it's moved from four
and a half to four to three and a half.
I think at three and a half you're sort of
at the bleeding edge of what the.
Speaker 4 (38:14):
Wise guys would do.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
They're really not that interested in it, but they would
still do it because they're getting the hook.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
But you missed the best of the number on that one.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Yeah, all right, Chad Miller. You want to talk about
the Lions, Well, they played a brilliant football game, and
so I don't think teams play perfect back to back.
So let's discuss the number. So my rule, the biggest
number on the board I throw out. I don't want
to be a sucker. Detroit minus eleven and a half
(38:47):
hosting Tennessee, so you're off a huge, intense divisional game.
Tennessee is a seller now near the trade deadline. They're
moving off people. That worries me in the locker room.
You know it's a better team. What say you on
the line eleven and a half? That's a college line.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
Yeah, it's massive, and I'd almost always ignore it, but
I have bet the Lions, full disclosure, I bet him
at ten and a half.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
I don't hate it eleven.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
This game is power rated by Professional betters closer to
thirteen or fourteen. But the book makers know they can't
post a thirteen, they can't post a fourteen. They'll immediately
get money on Tennessee at that big of a number.
And it's totally realistic for the game to land around
thirteen or fourteen. But again it goes back to the
(39:40):
offensive line. This is a dominant team. Is the best
team in the NFC, bar nun They are on a
collision course with the Chiefs to play in the Super Bowl.
Jared Goff is the best quarterback against the spread in
the NFL the past several seasons. The line the past
(40:00):
four seasons seventy percent against the spread. That is an
unmatched trend for them other than the New England Patriots
of their middle arts dynasty, middle teens dynasty. So I
don't hate the Lions here. If I'm betting any of
the big favorites, it's going to be on the Lions.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
Fair enough.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Chad Milman, Sharper Square, get better, Get well, my friend.
Speaker 4 (40:27):
Thank you sir the volume.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
take a moment rate and review
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? Well, that
was a great Thursday night football game. I've got so
many thoughts on it. Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings thirty
(01:07):
to twenty. That's as bad a missed call in a
big spot in an NFL game that I've seen in
a long time. Fans tend to get worked up over
pass interference calls, but those are subjective. That's like an
NBA game. You know, you could call foul every time
down the floor, you could call PI every time the
(01:28):
balls down the sideline, but a face masking call. I mean, hell,
Kirk Kerbstreet saw it. We all saw it on television.
Like Donald's head, get Yang back now. I don't think
they were going to drive ninety seven yards score a touchdown.
The Rams defensive front which is really young Aaron Donald left,
but they have stocked at the last two years with
(01:48):
really good players, young Verse on the front, Kobe Turner,
a lot of good players, and so I don't think
Donald was driving down to score a touchdown and the
two point conversion on the road. Nonetheless, that's a bad miss.
You know, there's so many things to start. First of all,
this week, they rumors came out that Cooper Cup and
Matt Stafford were on the trade block. Cooper Cup, I
(02:10):
believe you see how often they targeted Puka Nakua. He's
their future. Cooper Cup's good, but he's brittle, he struggles.
He's like an old NBA player. He struggles on like
back to back games on turf. You know, he's a guy.
Ideally for him and his body, you'd play him about
ten weeks a year. But for a good team, like
(02:31):
a Pittsburgh team that's playing well, now you get a
third fourth round pick for Cooper Cup. With Pickens on
the sideline routes, you'd have a real team. You know
he would be a boost. But for the Rams, you
know they're going to extract everything they can the rest
of the year. I don't know if they'll move him.
I think the Rams. I said this today on FS one.
(02:53):
There's no question in that division. San Francisco is not
as good as they were. Nobody's gonna trust Gino Smith
in Seattle. Arizona can be great and awful in the
same game. The Rams are now three and four. Remember
last year slow start, they won seven of their last eight,
got into the playoffs, and they they were a play
away from beating Detroit. So this idea of trading Cooper Cup,
(03:15):
I get it because of Puka Nakua, and I did
not expect Poka Naku would have played tonight. That's why
I had the vikings and the under on the Rams.
I didn't think Pooka n Aka was going to play.
And you know, he's just total game changer. It's it's
he's not justin Jefferson great, but he's a he's a
ten target, eight catch guy weekly basis for ninety five
to one hundred and fifteen yards. He's just a special player.
(03:37):
Fifth round or two. But the Matt Stafford trade rumors
are just don't make any sense to me. He's got
this year and next year under contract, then they can
walk away. But there's just not There's nobody in the
next two college drafts that is close to this. And
Sean McVay almost walked away from the NFL a couple
of years ago to take an Amazon job as a broadcaster.
(03:59):
He didn't want to start over with some you know,
half of these first round quarterbacks don't make it this
coming up draft, you know, I mean, I can see
the Rams in the third or fourth round taking Riley
Leonard out of Notre Dame, sitting them behind Stafford for
a year or two. But if you're not getting Shader Sanders,
I don't see anybody in this quarterback drafts that's going
to play immediately and excel at the NFL level. I
(04:20):
just don't. And that's what my couple sources who I've
talked about in the executive suites in the NFL tell me.
It's just this last draft was great quarterback draft. Next
two are just okay. So I mean Stafford four touchdowns,
twenty three to thirty two, nine different receivers, twenty seven
first downs. They're not getting rid of him. And I
said this last year and I'll say it again. They
(04:42):
need a number one corner. The Rams doing the draft,
they need a draft a sideline receiver, a speed receiver,
and they need another offensive tackle and probably another safety
for depth. But they're not that far away. If they hit,
they have a first and two thirds. If they hit
on those picks, team could win the Super Bowl. I
don't think there are a super Bowl team this year
(05:03):
at three and four, but Minnesota is a good team
and the Rams controlled that second half. So I just
I just don't. I don't buy into I don't buy
into Matt Stafford's moving. And I've said this before. Just
think about Aaron Rodgers. So Matt Stafford was a much
better high school player than Aaron Rodgers and a much
better college player than Aaron Rodgers, and was better than
(05:24):
Aaron Rodgers their first four years in the league. And
then you know, Aaron's with the Packers, Stafford's with the
you know, bankrupt Lions, and you know, Stafford struggles to
win in the same division. Rodgers is, you know, out
of this world. For green Band deserves all the credit.
But what happens if Stafford the next two years makes
(05:45):
the makes the Rams a viable super Bowl team. It's
not unheard of San Francisco's peak. We don't trust Philadelphia's coach.
The Lions are the best team. But in a big spot,
Dan Campbell, Jared goff or mcvahan, Stafford with no Aiden Hutchison,
that game gets a lot closer. So I just look
at it and I think to myself, Stafford's here, load
(06:08):
up on draft picks the next two years, try to
have some hits. You know, the Rams defense is so
young that they can spend some money in free agency.
This year, they're not spending anything on defense. I mean,
those guys are all free, they're cheap. They got a
lot of second, third, fourth, fifth rounders all over that defense.
They're not paying anybody right now now that Aaron Donald's gone.
(06:29):
As far as the Vikings go, you know, Sam Donald
was fine outplayed in the second half. But it really
is interesting. So you know, we all kind of picked,
you know, Detroit green Bay to be the best in
the division, and then the Bears and the Vikings to
round it out. And I had said if the Vikings
finished fourth, it's the most talented offensive fourth place team
in the history of the NFL. They're not going to
(06:50):
finish fourth, I think, but I do think, and they've
got winnable games coming up. You know, they've got Titans, Jags, Colts, Arizona,
Bears twice, Seattle. You know, Vikings are a good team,
but I do think Detroit's got a better roster and
is a better team. And you saw it last week
when they played. And I think green Bay is so young,
we're not seeing the best version of green Bay. I
think over the next eight weeks, Packers are just going
(07:11):
to get better and better and better better. And I
wouldn't be shocked if they if they got to a
super Bowl. I don't see them as a super Bowl
winning team this year, but it wouldn't shock me. They're
so young. Every time you watch green Bay they look better.
And that's the advantage of having a bunch of twenty
four year olds and twenty five year olds who are
just into their prime. Detroit's a little older, more seasoned,
and that's why I like Detroit if they met in
(07:33):
like like a playoff game, But you know, what do
you do with Stafford? So my guess is if the
Vikings end up being a good team winning ten games,
but they finish third because the Vikings, you know, I
don't think they're Detroit or Green Bay at their best.
And remember the Vikings may have just lost their left
tackle for some time. Cross your fingers on that. But
(07:55):
Darnold will have a market. I mean the last several years,
think about the quarterbacks who have had a market, Old Brady, Matt, Stafford,
Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins. Darnald will have a market. Now,
somebody may overpay for him. You're not going to get
this Donald, He's not going to have this left tackle
justin Jefferson, this coach you know, probably Jordan Addison, TJ. Hawkins,
(08:17):
and you're not getting that Donald. But I think he'll
be somewhere between the mess in New York and the Vikings,
and he's a really coachable, likable kid. But you see
it to night when you put him on the field
with Stafford, Stafford is the better quarterback. I mean, Stafford's
got nine different receivers, his pre snap stuff. I mean,
the guy is just Matt is just insanely gifted. But
(08:37):
he has you know, he didn't have a brand. He
doesn't give a rip. He just loves football as family
and that's you know, he's not controversial. He doesn't talk
about conspiracy theories. He's just not who he is.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
Man.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
He's just a good old Texas Southern guy loves football
and family and keeps it quiet. But Donald will have
a market, and I think JJ McCarthy, who had a
great preseason, is kind of their future. And I think,
you know, if Donald gets the ten wins, ten to
eleven wins, that's a second third round pick. I don't
think you're gonna get a first for him. But Donald
(09:09):
will have a market. But they didn't draft JJ McCarthy
to move off him. So but I did think tonight
when you see Donald, and he's not reckless, he's gotten
the reckless out of him. But when you see him
on the same field with like a golf last week
or a Matt Stafford this week. He just doesn't feel
quite that. And I think Kevin O'Connell, who's a quarterback coach,
(09:30):
I think a lot of people like Sam Darnold, but
to give a guy a bag, you have to love
your quarterback, and so he'll have a market. I think
the Vikings will pull back a little, but again they're
both the Rams schedule and the Viking schedule. There's a
lot of wins. The other thing on the Rams tonight
they got Pooka Cooper cut back, but the interior of
their offensive line they're still missing two starters. So this
(09:51):
Rams team, which has a young, young, aggressive, talented defense
and a really good offensive line top five or six
in the league when healthy. So the Rams now are
starting to get healthy. Puka a surprise starter tonight, big,
big production. Just to give you a sense of how
valuable Poka Nakua is, and I didn't think he'd played tonight.
(10:13):
The Rams have won eight of the last nine games.
Pooka Nicua has played the only loss overtime loss on
the road to Baltimore, and with that win, the San
Francisco forty nine ers are now in last place in
the NFC West. How about that? But just watching Stafford
(10:35):
out there, Spinet, he is really really special. If you
ask yourself now that Brady's out of the league and
Breeze is out of the league, and I said to
you final drive, minute thirty one time out, final drive,
you'd take Mahomes, I'd argue I'd take Stafford second. He's
certainly in the argument. You know you'd take him. I
(10:56):
think over Lamar be is Lamar's lack of playoff success.
You know, Josh Allen a bigger, stronger athlete, but again
lack of playoffs success. I love Joe Burrow, but Burrow,
you know, I mean he may not make the playoffs
this year, and he's had some injuries. I mean, I
name the quarterbacks in the league. Minute thirty one time
(11:16):
out left have to go eighty four yards. I mean
it's Mahomes one. Stafford's on a short list at number two.
So the trade rumors kind of silly to me. And
I also think, you know, when you get we're always
trying to bum rush all these older guys out and
Stafford certainly had some injuries, but you watch his legs,
you watch his arms. He's obviously motivated. He's one of
(11:38):
the best pre snap guys in the league. You know
this isn't a guy that I mean he his wife
made a remark earlier, I think this year or late
last year about how young his teammates are. Yes, the
Rams are doing the Kansas City Chiefs model. They're going
to pay for offense. They are going to just keep
drafting defense, and I think the Rams defense, like the
(11:59):
Packers off is just going to get better the longer
the season goes. I think the Packers offense by week
thirteen could be the best offense in the league. It's
already one of the best. I think this Rams defense
is just getting better every time I see him. So
good win for the Rams tonight. Three to four. Minnesota
is still a good team with a lot of w's left.
(12:20):
But I don't think the Rams are selling I don't
Cooper Cup. If somebody offered you a second third, youd
take it. But I don't think people are going to
do that brittle expensive I think they may get a
fourth round pick and at that point just keep him,
just go win football games. I mean, he made a
huge catch up the sideline tonight late. That was a
big catch, So congrats to the Rams. Chad Millman, Sharp
(12:45):
or Square? Who does he like? Who do I like?
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Speaker 1 (14:10):
Time for another edition of Sharp or Square, Chad Millman
CCO Action Network. I pushed at two to two and one.
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. So I have
been last couple of weeks, I've been moving toward best quarterback.
I do think defensive players statistically get hurt more than
(14:30):
offensive players. Defenses can weaken, and the quarterbacks separate. Coaching
quarterbacks separate this time every year. If you go look
at the AFC, the best quarterbacks lead each division. Kirk
Cousins leads his. By the way, if you look at
the quarterbacks playing best, I think eventually Jordan Love will
(14:50):
lead his division. That's the time of the year we're in.
So let me throw out a game that is fascinating,
and this really highlight lights how important numbers are. So Historically,
quarterbacks off concussions don't play their best the first week back.
But Arizona Miami at three and a half, I'm out.
(15:13):
But Arizona is the most inconsistent team in the league.
They often have the best quarters followed by the worst halfs.
If it's minus two and a half or minus three Miami,
I like them because Arizona High Low Hilow just beat
a team that I think is better than them, the
Chargers and Hardball. So what I feel is like, Oh,
(15:36):
here they go short week Monday night. Here they go
cross country. You lose it in prep. Here is Tua.
McDaniel played terribly with absolutely something to prove. They are
going to flex at They're going to keep starters into
the last play. That game interests me like Miami not
(15:57):
only needs to win, they've been so bad for a month.
They want to sell to that locker room. We are
a great team. This is a new page and a
new team forget the last month. Game fascinates me. I
would take Miami minus three, but the hook because of
concussions and the numbers behind those scare me. What are
(16:18):
the sharps think on this.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
Now, It's like you are inside a professional better war room,
because that is the exact conversation earlier this week. This
line opened at three and a half, Arizona was the underdog.
The professional betters bet Arizona at three and a half.
When it got to three and it even touched two
(16:42):
and a half, professional betters started coming in on Miami,
and I apologize for people listening to my voice. It
sounds worse than it is. Don't worry. I'm gonna be fine.
The point is, Miami is the team professional betters are
backing for every reason you just said. They believe Tua
(17:04):
will make this team better. More importantly, they aren't believing
in Kyler Murray as a consistent winning quarterback going cross
country to play the Dolphins in a desperate, desperate situation.
So the wise guys are on Miami. Yeah, desperate spot,
you gotta win.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And I really do believe Miami. Mike McDaniels has to
rebrand this team fast because they've been the worst team
in the league for about a month and they have.
And also they're watching the Patriots fall apart and the
Jets fall apart, so it's like, guys, let's see second place,
first assignment Sunday. Let me get me.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Last week, I was sitting in an airport and I
was going over my notes for the favorites to the show,
and I couldn't remember who was playing quarterback for the
Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
That's how off the radar there.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
I had to look up literally Miami Dolphins starting quarterback,
and you know what came up, Tua. Google didn't even
know who the starting quarterback for Miami was. That's how
sort of forgotten they've been. So you're one hundred percent right.
They need to reframe who they are right now.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Okay, Colts in a desperate spot plus five rival game
at the Texans, the Green Bay game, there's a little
bit of a red flag on Houston.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
So CJ.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
Strouds in year two clearly needs Joe Mixon and Nico
Collins to be completed. He's getting worse protection. If you
watch the pass attempts and you watch the coaching, they're
getting a little conservative with him. It tells you that
if they're not completely healthy, the staff doesn't necessarily trust him.
(18:43):
Yet Conversely, Jordan Love throws ugly picks early that laflor
doubles down throw it more. They know they've got farv
on their hands. Jordan Love is an aggressive thrower, and
Lafleur totally backs in. But the way their coach Siege
Jay Stroud is telling me they're a little concerned with
(19:04):
the elements around him and sometimes as a second year player,
he needs though, he needs those the nicos, the Joe
mixons to fortify his game. So I'm going to take
the Colts plus five. It was six on DraftKings all
or odds provided by DraftKings Sharper Square.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
Yeah, it's totally sharp.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
In fact, it went from six and a half to six,
to five and a half to five. It's now at
four and a half in some places. Wise, guys have
been pounding the Colts. I'm going to take your theory
about better quarterback and expand it because that obviously isn't
the case in this scenario. But I do think one
(19:43):
of the reasons why the public has been winning so
much in the past two weeks. The public meaning if
there are more than fifty one percent of the bets
on one side that is a public side. For the
first five weeks of the year, the public was having
its worse season in the twenty years we've been tracking
(20:03):
this at Action Network the past two weeks. The public
is twenty two zero seven and one complete and total reversal.
Obviously Houston is going to be the public side here.
But what normally happens is bad quarterbacks and bad teams
with big numbers find a way to cover, and they
haven't been. This is a situation where I'm extrapolating. I
(20:25):
think it's more about good coaching and dominant unit. So
you have in the Colts the number one run blocking
unit in the NFL. You may get Jonathan Taylor back,
you practiced yesterday for the first time off of that
high ankle spring. You've got a great, great play caller
in Shane Steichen who last year almost got the Cults
(20:46):
of the playoff with Gardner Minshew. And by the way,
has this team at four and three and one game
out of the first place in the AFC South behind
the Texans, who they only lost two by two points
thread of this year. So that is why the wise guys.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Are coming in.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
One trend for you division favorites the past eight years
forty six against the spread, So it's also a good spot.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
One more underdog Seattle plush three against the Bills. So Seattle,
we haven't seen a lot of Seattle when they're healthy
upfront defensively, but boy did Kirk Cousins see that last week.
This is a really good defensive coach with some really
(21:31):
tasty defensive personnel. They're also getting their top cornerback. When
I look at Gino Smith, I look at him two ways.
With time and a run game. He's highly effective when
rushed sometimes on the road. He's not Buffalo is not
(21:52):
a team. Although I like him, I don't trust them.
They're a much better version of Arizona and at home
healthy a field goal. I this is hard for me
to turn down three and a half. It's one of
the best bets of the week. At three, I'd roll
(22:13):
with it. The Seahawks sharper square, so it's square.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
The wise guys are on Buffalo, but I will tell you,
I'm with you. I don't understand why they're on Buffalo.
You know, we've talked about this before. We do a
segment on our show called Sharp Calls on Tuesday, we
talk about all the games. By Thursday, when we do
the next episode of the week, we've got feedback from
(22:38):
a lot of professional betters with their opinions on what
we talked about on Tuesday, and we will review those
on the show. Seattle Buffalo was one of the games
that we loved on Tuesday, and on Thursday we were
getting a lot of calls from professional betters so that
they weren't buying Seattle's defense, they weren't buying Gino Smith,
and they liked Josh Allen and the year that he's
(22:58):
having no interception hasn't thrown an interception in nine games,
which is coming close to record breaking status. Right, But
I am with you, like the Bills beat up on
bad teams, yes, and they they use or struggle against
good teams. So if you're betting Seattle, then you are
basically taking a stand that you think Seattle is a
(23:21):
good team. And there is some evidence of that they
have gotten healthier, but there's evidence that they're a bad
team too, right, So I think that's what the wise
guys are playing here, that they just don't believe Seattle
is a very good team yet.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
All right, all right, let's go to some favorites. Bears
minus two and a half at the Commanders, even if
Jaden Daniels plays, He's not at one hundred percent, and
you could you could clearly see with the Giants next
week if Jade and Daniels plays, gets dinged pass rush
pretty good for Chicago, you could see them saying we're
going to Mariota, We're going to go into divisional play.
(23:54):
We got no interest. I think the Bears defense because
we're so fixated on calob and he's by the way,
he is building real rapport here with his offensive set.
I think the Bears defense is pretty well coached. Again,
it's a numbers game. I think if Jaden Daniels plays,
it will be mass protection. It will be a game
(24:18):
in which they coach him more safely, they call a
game differently. He's the difference in the franchise. And I
think it's one of these games you look at and
you think, listen, if we had to not play him,
I mean, he hasn't practiced this week. Even if he
practices Friday, you kind of wonder what you get. I like,
(24:42):
Chicago minus two and a half here, pretty strong play
Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (24:46):
Yeah, that's the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
And look, the betters are are almost literally banking on
the idea that Jaden Daniels isn't going to play in
this game because he hasn't practiced, and there is a
there is a massive difference between Jade and Daniels and
Marcus Marrios. The Commanders have only punted twelve times this season.
That's tied with the Chiefs for the fewest since nineteen fifty.
(25:13):
They're perfect on fourth downs. They're fifty percent on third
down conversions. That is because of Jaden Daniels. That is
because of the threat that he poses. That is because
of what he can do as both a very accurate
passer and a good runner. Without that, this is a
different team. It stresses the defense, which isn't very good
(25:34):
even from a statistical point of view, but they don't
look as bad when Jaden Daniels is converting fourth downs
and converting third towns. There's fewer opportunities for the opposing
offense to get on the field and score points.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Kayleb Williams has.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Been a brilliant quarterback the past four weeks and by
the way, in the second half, he's covering the spread
at a rate that is only compared only matched by
Patrick Mahomes right now. So this coming off of by
this team in this spot, it is a really good
time to bet the Bears at minus two and a half.
(26:08):
The wise guys are with you.
Speaker 1 (26:13):
The Eagles are the only team in the league that
hasn't scored in the first quarter, and that matters when
they go on the road to face Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow,
when he doesn't have to throw, but chooses to throw,
is as good as any quarterback in this league. All
quarterbacks when they're in a hole, face a different defensive.
Speaker 4 (26:34):
Test.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Philadelphia, if they score, doesn't take big leagues. They're probably
the most underachieving offense in the league based on personnel
and productivity. So here's a team in Cincinnati which has
shown an ability to start quickly. I think Philadelphia has
got much better players, but at minus two and a half,
(26:58):
basically season on the line, with Baltimore winning, Pittsburgh winning,
this is the season for Cincinnati at home. I only
give up two and a half against what I think
is one of the more poorly coached teams in the league,
yet one of the best rosters. I'll take the Bengals
minus two and a half. Sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
The public is on the Eagles, and this line has
moved up. That's called the reverse line move. When the
line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority
of the bets are. That tells you the professional betters
are coming in on the side of the team that
the line moved in the direction of. That is the
Bengals open to two. It's now at two and a half.
(27:37):
This is a bet on Joe Burrow.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Yep, that's all like.
Speaker 2 (27:41):
He's twenty two six and one against the spread when
facing a team that just covered. Overall in his career,
he's sixty three percent. He's seventy percent against teams that
are over five hundred. The challenge here is everyone should
be and has been, concerned about the Bengals defense.
Speaker 4 (27:59):
But two things.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
The Bengals defense has been really good defending against the
long pass and explosive plays. Yeah, that's the best way
for the Eagles to win. We've seen it time and again.
When they get the explosive plays, that's when they can
break it out. The rest of the time, their offense
isn't very good. We even sought against the Giants last week.
So the pros are with you. They're back ining Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
So you know, I love the number five. When a
team is favored by four and a half to five,
I feel like it's a graveyard for books that they
don't want to go to that number. But they're kind
of trapped. So San Francisco's at home. Dallas has not
matched up well against better teams. Now Deebo had pneumonia
as a pro athlete, I think he's available Sunday. I
(28:53):
think Jennings is available. Jordan Mason's the second leading rusher
in the league. He's a more than capable back. Teams
that are well coached with talent that deliver a stinker
in the biggest TV game of the week always play.
It's an easy team to coach hard. They will play
a much better football game. They're limited. No Brandon Ayuk,
(29:15):
no Christian They're limited, but I think they feel they
not only lost to the Chiefs, they were kind of embarrassed.
It was really a bad performance. I'm gonna swallow the
four and a half and take the Niners at home.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Sharper Square, Well, you said something there that is a
little bit too flip and dismissive. No Brandon Ayuk, no
Christian McCaffrey. They might not have Deebo Samuel because the
guy has pneumonia like he was in the freaking hospital.
If you look at Rock Perdy's production, a third of
(29:51):
his production during the time he's been starting has been
going to Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Ayuk. If you include
Deebo Samuel, fifty percent going to those three guys. You
take away those three guys, and you know what you get.
Brock Purdy and what he did against the Kansas City Chiefs,
Like Ricky Pearsall is not Brandon Io.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
I don't know if Rickey Pearsall can play right.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Ronnie Bell is not Deebo Samuel. It doesn't matter how
hard Kyle Shanahan coaches these guys this week. If they
can't play, they can't play. So that's the real issue.
It's why the wise guys took the Cowboys at six
and a half, took him at five and a half,
took them at five down to four and a half.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
This thing's going to four.
Speaker 2 (30:39):
I would not be surprised if it's at three and
a half by Sunday, because the wise guy money is
coming in on the Cowboys.
Speaker 4 (30:46):
Then that's Ethan.
Speaker 2 (30:47):
With all the chaos of Jerry Jones calling out Mike McCarthy,
who he could have fired after the Packers blew out
the Cowboys, and now he's upset with McCarthy's play calling.
The Cowboys are still inside, by the way, McCarthy thirteen
three and one off of the buy against the spread.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
Okay, so a game. I want your opinion on this.
It seems easy. So when Malik Neighbors was out or
Cavon Thibadeaux for the Giants, it sounds alarming. But the
player that really decides the fate of this team is
Andrew Thomas. When bad quarterbacks don't have a left tackle,
(31:32):
they get hideous fast. The Giants are now last year's Giants,
right they They competed without Malik, with Dexter Lawrence, they
compete without Theibadeaux. I don't think they're a competitive football team.
So I get the Steelers for the record. The second
half against the Jets twenty four to nothing. New York's
(31:53):
goot players. It was a little old Russell Wilson. He's
now got a deep a run game. Arthur Smith, he
had protection moving well. We know the defense and motivations there.
I know it doesn't feel sharp, but Pittsburgh minus six
hosting a Giants team. Shane and Dable have been given
(32:14):
assurance by the owner. You're not going anywhere. It's not
a frenetic behind the scenes thing. Neither wants Daniel Jones.
I cannot bet Daniel Jones stand alone on the road
without his left tackle. It feels like the minus six
is sharp Steelers sharper square.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
It's eh like, no one's really interested in this game.
If it wasn't a primetime game, it'd be the Corner
TV game because the Giants are that bad. And you're
right about Andrew Thomas, Like we've talked about this. When
I'm handicapping and doing analysis, the first thing I'm looking
at is the offensive line. One of the reasons I
(32:55):
like the Bengals against the Eagles is because Jordan Malatta
is out and he's being replaced with a guy named
Fred Johnson.
Speaker 4 (33:02):
He gives up.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
His pressure rate as a left tackle is twenty two
percent against opposing defensive ends. The average is six percent.
Offensive lines dictate your ability to run the ball, protect
the quarterback.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
Score.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
It's why I love the Lions so much. It's why
we love them so much. Last weekends the Vikings, It's
why we hate them. We hate the Giants against the Eagles.
I hate the Giants against the Steelers too. It's not
a great spot like a team that's been blown out
against a team that did the blowing out. That's a
bad formula if you want to be a better it's
(33:37):
very public to take the Steelers right now. I'm not
saying it's the wrong side, but it's not the sharp side.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Okay, there's always a game. I'm interested in your opinion.
Jets minus seven at New England. They humiliated New England
the first time. Drake may look pretty good last week.
The Jets are a surcus I mean it's they look
like they're significantly worse on defense without their best coach,
Robert Sola. He was their best coach. They're not as
(34:04):
good in the two games defensively without him. Offensively, the
first game they used motion. Aaron Rodgers doesn't like it.
By the second game, with a new coordinator, their motion
was cut in half. That is so Aaron. He doesn't
like motion. He wants to go to the line, keep
it clean all make the call. It's begging me to
(34:24):
take New England. Tell me where I should go.
Speaker 2 (34:29):
Well, if you want to bet this game, which you
shouldn't want to and you definitely should not want to
make it one of your blaze in five because you're
on a streak right now.
Speaker 4 (34:39):
You take New England.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
You've got Drake May, he's proving he can throw the ball.
You've got a depleted Jets secondary, which we saw last week.
Like every single play I felt like another Jets player
was going out. Even Sauce Gardner got banged up a
little bit in last week's game.
Speaker 4 (34:57):
But you don't want to play this game. Oka.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
There are four big ish underdogs this week, the Jets,
the Titans, the Browns, the Raiders. There are two games wise,
guys want to play the underdogs, one game they completely
want to ignore, and one game in which they want
to play the favorites, the Patriots Jets is the game
they want to ignore.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
All right, you always give me a game that I
miss completely, what say you?
Speaker 2 (35:26):
Well, look, we talked about some good ones since the
Indie I love those games. We talked about Chicago. We
haven't talked about Cleveland and Las Vegas and their matchups
against the Ravens and the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (35:41):
One I can't stomach both. Just give me one. Pick one.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
It's so hard, Like the wise guys love them both.
Speaker 2 (35:48):
At this point, you're better off just betting the number,
and like it's a little bit more of a number
higher number with the Raiders and the Chiefs than it
is with the Browns and the Ravens. I lean If
I have to choose only one of them, I lean Browns.
(36:10):
I think they're closer to getting better. And again subscribing
to the theory that if I'm going to bet on
a really bad team that is a big underdog, I
want that team to at least have one dominant unit.
And the Browns do have a dominant defensive end in
Miles Garrett, who wasn't even on the injury report this week.
They have a dominant cornerback and Denzel Ward who's been
(36:33):
playing great all season long. The Ravens do give up
a lot of points this most points in the second
half this season along with the Titans, so there is
an opportunity for Jamis if he decides to go crazy
in the second half for them to pull off a
backdoor cover. I worry about the Raiders. Mahomes has a
(36:55):
bad record as a favorite or more than three record
has been getting better the past two seasons. He's nine
to six and one against the spread as a favorite
of more than three the past two seasons. So you
got to look at it not just holistically, but in
some recency. And this team, they're turning the ball over,
they can't get off, they can't stay on the field
(37:17):
on third down. I just worry they're not going to
have that many opportunities to score against the Chiefs defense
that is pretty good. So the one thing they have
going for them is brock Bauers has the most receptions
for a rookie tight end since two thousand and the
one thing the Chiefs haven't been able to do this year.
(37:37):
They couldn't guard Kittle, they couldn't guard Isaiah Likely, they
couldn't guard Mike Kiseki. For the Bengals, all of them
had either close to one hundred or just under one
hundred yards receiving, but none of them won the game.
So I lean Browns if I have to choose one
of them, I don't want to, but that's what I
(37:57):
would do.
Speaker 1 (37:58):
By the way, Packers is three and a half at
the Jaguars. Screams Jags, doesn't it?
Speaker 2 (38:04):
Yes on it Screamshags so much it's moved from four
and a half to four to three and a half.
I think at three and a half you're sort of
at the bleeding edge of what the.
Speaker 4 (38:14):
Wise guys would do.
Speaker 2 (38:15):
They're really not that interested in it, but they would
still do it because they're getting the hook.
Speaker 4 (38:20):
But you missed the best of the number on that one.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Yeah, all right, Chad Miller. You want to talk about
the Lions, Well, they played a brilliant football game, and
so I don't think teams play perfect back to back.
So let's discuss the number. So my rule, the biggest
number on the board I throw out. I don't want
to be a sucker. Detroit minus eleven and a half
(38:47):
hosting Tennessee, so you're off a huge, intense divisional game.
Tennessee is a seller now near the trade deadline. They're
moving off people. That worries me in the locker room.
You know it's a better team. What say you on
the line eleven and a half? That's a college line.
Speaker 2 (39:05):
Yeah, it's massive, and I'd almost always ignore it, but
I have bet the Lions, full disclosure, I bet him
at ten and a half.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
I don't hate it eleven.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
This game is power rated by Professional betters closer to
thirteen or fourteen. But the book makers know they can't
post a thirteen, they can't post a fourteen. They'll immediately
get money on Tennessee at that big of a number.
And it's totally realistic for the game to land around
thirteen or fourteen. But again it goes back to the
(39:40):
offensive line. This is a dominant team. Is the best
team in the NFC, bar nun They are on a
collision course with the Chiefs to play in the Super Bowl.
Jared Goff is the best quarterback against the spread in
the NFL the past several seasons. The line the past
(40:00):
four seasons seventy percent against the spread. That is an
unmatched trend for them other than the New England Patriots
of their middle arts dynasty, middle teens dynasty. So I
don't hate the Lions here. If I'm betting any of
the big favorites, it's going to be on the Lions.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
Fair enough.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Chad Milman, Sharper Square, get better, Get well, my friend.
Speaker 4 (40:27):
Thank you sir the volume.
Speaker 1 (40:33):
Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast,
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Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre