Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" (3:00) on the blowback from his Aaron Rodgers text story, the Texans firing HC David Culley, the difference between Tom Brady and Big Ben, what Jim Harbaugh haters won't admit, and the athlete who deserves way more credit than he gets. Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman has a bone to pick with Colin about his MVP take (10:00) and tells Colin whether his Super Wild Card picks are "sharp" or "square". Hear their picks for Raiders/Bengals (16:00), Patriots/Bills (23:00), Eagles/Buccaneers (24:00), Niners/Cowboys (26:00), Steelers/Chiefs (28:00), and Cardinals/Rams (30:00).
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Sharpen Square with Chad Millman will be coming up in
(02:27):
ten minutes, but first fake questions, real answers every Friday
Morning podcast stuff I want to talk about but don't
want to wait for you to ask me. Here we go.
Dear Colin, Hey, you got a little blowback for saying
that you received a weird text about Aaron Rodgers, just
like Boomera Siason did. What are you going to say? Well,
I'm just telling you what happened. Sorry if that makes
(02:49):
you uncomfortable. Yes, I received a text several years ago
from a number in Virginia that had bizarrely detailed information
about the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. I didn't say it
was a fact that Aaron was behind it. I didn't
say anybody in Green Bay was absolutely or definitively behind it.
I said it was fishy as hell, especially once I
got that boomer as science and stuff. First of all,
(03:11):
if you want to blame somebody for spreading misinformation, how
about Aaron Rodgers. He's giving people medical advice and telling
them to follow doctor Joe Rogan about vaccines. Aaron often
wants the media to be more responsible. Yeah, yeah, I
really liked your vaccine hocus pocus. He's not really anybody
to tell anybody who's responsible and irresponsible. Aaron is one
(03:36):
of those guys that wants to see both sides of
a story. Well, I'll give you my side. My side
is that was a weird text. Boomer got a weird text.
They were both from the same state. I wanted to
tell the story. All the anti media people aren't really antimedia.
Packer fence. You guys in the media, you're not antimedia.
(03:57):
You're just anti media. You don't agree with right. You
think Rachel Maddow and that Russian Trump story's nonsense. You
don't trust her. You're a conservative. And by the way,
you liberals don't trust these conservatives because of what Tucker
Carlson says every night. People only want media they agree with.
(04:17):
Even liberals love Bill Maher until he sort of takes
a moderate conservative side. Then they go to Twitter and say,
mars Toast, I haven't watched him in twenty years. It's
sort of like liberals do with Dave Chappelle. Now I'm
suddenly supposed to believe he's not funny because of a
joke he did that landed poorly to many people. Stop
(04:40):
you consume the media. It doesn't matter if you like it.
Dear Colin, what do you make of the Houston Texans
firing David Culley. Well, he signed a two year contract,
and even though I think he deserved a second year.
Lots of relationships are stop gaps. Sometimes you date, sometimes
you marry, sometimes you sometimes you buy, sometimes you lease,
(05:02):
sometimes you buy. We all have employment options where we
don't plan on working in a company forever. David Culley,
in my opinion, deserved a second year. I thought the
Texans play hard despite very limited talent. I mean, hell,
they beat the Chargers late in the season. But this
was not a five year contract. He got a massive,
(05:23):
massive payout to leave. Everybody understood it was a stop
gap move because no elite candidates wanted it last year
because of several reasons, one bad ownership and the other
the Deshaun Watson mess. But folks, this is the way
life works. Anybody think Joe Biden's a two term president.
(05:46):
Do I think there should be more black coaches? Absolutely? Do.
I think it feels like African American coaches have to
prove themselves more. Absolutely. I hated the Brian Flores fire.
But in this instance, David Culley, we knew it going in.
This was a short contract. This was going to be
(06:07):
a short term solution to a big long term problem.
Dear Colin, how come Tom Brady looks great at forty
four and Big Ben looks done at thirty nine. Well,
successful people often know there's one thing more important than learning,
and that's unlearning the easy parts learning. It's getting rid
(06:31):
of bad habits and bad ideas and pivoting to new stuff.
That's hard. You've got to be self critical. Tom Brady
at forty four looks like a totally different person at
twenty two. He's thinner, he looks better. Big Ben's thirty
nine looks like a totally different person than twenty nine
in a bad way. Benzo was reminded me of Brett Farve.
(06:51):
Good old boys, lack discipline, had mobility, took a lot
of hits, kind of conservative, kind of stubborn. Both didn't
have nearly the same success late in their careers as
they did early. Football's always been from scheme to coaching
to body, a game of evolving. It's constantly changing, even
the rules are. It's not the bomb it out gun
(07:13):
slinger league it used to be. The quarterbacks now that
are crushing are more efficient. I want to have a
twenty year career in the league. You got to be
willing to unlearn as much as learn. Dear Colin, what's
something that fans do that to you is annoying and
drives you nuts? Well, fans o was rip coaches and
(07:36):
players that they would actually be thrilled to have on
their team. Remember when TiO planted the football in the
Dallas Star and the cowboy. Fans said what a jerk?
And then he became a cowboy and two hours later
he was their favorite player. This reminds me of Jim Harball.
How many Ohio State fans are there listening? Any of
(07:57):
you in Chicago. You've been banging on Harbaugh for years
at Michigan. Wouldn't you take him as your head coach?
Oh my bad, You're gonna go with Brian Dayble, a
coordinator who's never been a head coach over a guy
with a sixty five percent winning percentage and a Super
Bowl trip in Jim Harbaugh. It's like Jimmy Garoppolo. Everybody
(08:18):
bangs on Jimmy Garoppolo. He has a career passer rating
of almost ninety nine, a career completion percentage of almost
sixty eight. You're a Washington fan, a Pittsburgh fan, a
Denver fan, you wouldn't take him. Be careful about bagging
on coaches and players because you may be desperate and
(08:39):
have a vacancy really soon at those positions. Dear Colin,
lots of athletes are underrated and overrated. We know that.
Give me an athlete in your opinion that doesn't get
nearly as much credit as he should. I'll give you
somebody Eli Manning. Because his brother is Peyton, we immediately
(09:00):
overlook him. But a quarterback is probably not gonna look
as great when you compare him to one of the
greatest quarterbacks of all time. It's like saying Janet Jackson
was a disappointment because she wasn't Michael Jackson. Janet Jackson
was a huge star for twenty years. Listen, the Giants
were a mess before Eli, and now they're a mess.
They were four and twelve and two thousand and three.
(09:22):
They draft him. By two thousand and five, they're eleven
and five. By two thousand and seven, they win the
Super Bowl. He's MVP two and eleven. They do it
again both times over Brady and Belichick. After the twenty
fifteen season, they get it to Coughlin in twenty sixteen.
With Eli, they go eleven and five and it's all
downhill from there. His last full season was twenty eighteen.
(09:43):
For the record, ELI had a passer rating that year
of ninety two and a half. Do you know where
that would be this year? Somewhere between Mac Jones and
Josh Allen. Eli Manning has never gotten the credit he deserved.
The Giants were a disaster before they drafted him, and
a disaster right after they bailed on him. His composure,
(10:05):
his intelligence, his decency, his commitment, his leadership are one
of the primary reasons they've been a mess for all
but the ELI years in the last twenty five years.
All right, I bring in my buddy Chad Milman, sharp
or square. I make my picks. He takes them and
(10:28):
pokes and prods them. So I hear that. You listen
to my radio show yesterday. What did you make of me,
the orator espousing theories and belief systems? What you make
of it? Listen? You know there are very few people
who are a bigger fan of yours than I am.
Blah blah blah whatever. Maybe there might be no one
(10:51):
else who is as talented in media as you are,
please go on this whole Tom Brady, you know, had
a better the conversation about the MVP, you were talking
about Burrow, you're talking about Aaron Rodgers, you're talking about
Tom Brady, and your take tom Brady shouldn't really be
in consideration because his roster was better. That's idiotic. Like
(11:16):
the goal is to win as many games as possible,
to perform as well as you can, and to take
your team to the highest level. So your argument is
that two years ago Tom Brady took over a roster
that was eight and eight with Jameis Winston, and because
he won them the Super Bowl, all it's really doing
is saying he was okay, he just had really good
(11:38):
players behind him. Well, no, I didn't say he was okay.
I said, if you're making me vote between Burrow, Rogers,
and Brady, they're all absolutely candidates. I would vote for
Burrow because he's overcoming more. He has a much He
has to face the Steelers defense, the Bengal or the
Ravens defense, and the Browns defense. Twice. He wins the
division with the worst offensive line in the playoffs, and
(12:00):
we don't even know if Zach Taylor's a coach because
he couldn't win before he got there, whereas we know
fundamentally Green Bay's well run. I think you can vote
for any of them. I was just saying, if you
really want to count everything, Aaron Rodgers missed the game
against the Chiefs, Burrow played the Chiefs and Outdual Mahomes,
I could take that as one tenth. Brady I think
(12:21):
has a better roster top to bottom than Green Bay
and Cincinnati. I really think Tampa's roster when healthy is
the best roster in football. I mean when Leonard Fournette
and Gronk and I think it's the best roster in football.
So I don't care who anybody votes for. I'm just saying,
if we're gonna go, here's what bothers me. If Aaron loses,
it's gonna be Oh, it's because of the vaccine stance.
(12:45):
And I'm like, people, the two greatest years ever in
league history for a quarterback, Peyton Manning had won, Brady
had one. Neither was a unanimous MVP, like, it's inches
not feed on this step exactly. I also thought one.
I love Hubbarkish, who has come out and made all
these statements about Aaron Rodgers gave me my fairy first
(13:08):
job in journalism. I grew up outside Chicago. My end
of my freshman year at Indiana University, I needed to
get a job for this summer. I go back home.
I wanted to work in journalism. I look in the
phone book. I grew up in a town called Highland Park.
I look in the phone book for which is on
the north shore of Chicagos, where all the John Hughes
movies were made. For all like the old people like
(13:28):
I still recognize the reference. So I look in the
phone book and I'm looking for sort of local media.
And one of the lines for local media is Pro
Football Weekly, which was a national magazine, which I did
not know was located ten minutes from my house in
like a small office complex. I go there. I call.
(13:52):
I'm like, hey, I go to Indiana University. I'm a freshman,
I'm a journalism major. You guys got any internship opportunities?
They say, why don't you come in when you get home?
So I go in. I interview and with Hubbarkish, who
runs Pro Football Weekly. They give me a job on
the spot, making eight dollars an hour as an editor
because the editor they had an editor who on that
(14:13):
Friday had just quit to go cover the Bears for
like a local school, local newspaper. So I worked as
an editor in Pro Football Weekly in my first job,
and Hubarkish was my boss. Yeah, I didn't like his
reason for not voting for Aaron, but I don't have
a problem if you don't vote for Erin. I just
didn't like his reasoning because he thinks he's a jerk. Yeah,
didn't make sense. Also, you had a clip today not
(14:34):
to make this all about you on your podcast. You
had a clip today about Kevin Durant saying we're not
answering to the media. And as soon as he said it,
I'm like, of course, there's no one ingrier who drives
more pleasure from doing well and then telling the media
that he doesn't care about them than Kevin Durant. And
then you said it, which means all he does is
care about the media. Yeah, Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Durant
(14:57):
preached to us weekly, I don't care about the media.
You care constantly about the media. It bothers you and
we all get it all right, Here we go Sharper
Square the Raiders at the Bengals. I've gone back and
forth on this. I would take the Raiders and the points.
And here's why I worry about the Bengals offensive front.
You can't correct it. They don't run the ball unless
(15:20):
it's a necessity. They want to throw, they want to
do deep drops, and the Raiders have a pass rush.
I think we're going to see points in this game,
but the Bengals. I talked to Greg Kosel this week.
He said, listen, the Bengals, not that they've given up
in the run game, but they've identified what they are.
They're a big play down the field offense. Well, these
two teams played earlier. They couldn't block the Raiders at all.
(15:44):
So I just think the points is too many. It's
like minus four and a half. Now, I think I
take the Raiders and the points, although I think the
Bengals win close sharper square, so it's totally sharp. I
think you're getting the worst of the number. And for
the record, I'm telling you it's sharp. I bet the
Bengals at four and a half, and I think I'm
(16:06):
on the opposite side of a lot of professional betters.
You are one hundred percent sharp here so many trends,
and we're going to talk about this with a lot
of the games today. Favor NFL short NFL short underdogs
on the road in the playoffs dogs are fifteen and
three in Wildcard weekend ten and eight. Straight up road
(16:28):
dogs fourteen and two fifty five percent overall since two
thousand and three. The other numbers are since twenty seventeen.
And the Raiders fit this bill right, and a lot
of wise guys came in and they started betting on
the Raiders. When the line was a little bit higher,
they bet it down to five and a half. They
(16:49):
bet it down to five. Now it's down to four
and a half. You can find a lot of sort
of similarities between these two teams offensively and defensively, sort
of accordinate to the advanced metrics. They're kind of in
the same spot. And so it's a huge pros Joe's game.
Eighty percent of the money on the Raiders majority in
the bets, and the Bengals you're one hundred percent on
(17:11):
the right side. I'm just going to give you a
different take that I favor the Bengals. A you talk
about Joe Burrow, I just think He's the kind of
guy who's a playmaker, and in this scenario, when the
line is shrinking with a smaller number, it favors him
late game or I have a lot more faith than
him than I do in the Raiders. And I'm also
(17:32):
a little bit concerned for the Raiders. They had a
massive overtime game. The defense played nearly ninety snaps late
Sunday night. They've got a turn around, played the first
game on Saturday. It's a short week for them. We've
seen them lose to bad teams. So that's why I
like the Bengals a little bit more. But I will
tell you again, you're on the right side. You're making
(17:54):
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supply Patriots. I take them plus four against the Bills.
(21:54):
It's going to be five degrees, not snowing, slight wind,
but that's going to hurt the offense, and it's obvious
more skilled. That's the kind of weather you drop passes in.
It's five degrees. The Bills are the better football team.
New England's going to run the football, shorten the clock,
give themselves a shot. I like the fact that New
England lost more recently to them and was kind of dominated.
(22:19):
I think it's hard to beat Belichick back to back.
I mean, Miami through the years has had average coaches
that have split with him. It is hard. Brian Flores
did it this year, beat him both times. It is
a limited team against a good defense, but the Bills
are missing their top corner from earlier this year. I
take the Patriots and the points sharper square, totally sharp,
another pros Joe's game. The wise guys are coming in
(22:42):
on the Patriots and the public is coming in on
the Bills. So I mentioned some stats before about road,
about about underdogs in the playoffs. Yeah, since twenty seventeen,
NFL underdogs in the playoffs twenty nine and seventeen. And
this especially favors short underdogs. And so we've got two
(23:06):
outliers and the Steelers in the Chiefs. I know we'll
get to those, but the other games, like we're talking
about short dogs. It's why you like the Raiders, It's
why everybody likes the Patriots. That is professional better. All right,
I'm gonna take the Eagles plus eight and a half
at the Buccaneers. Now here's the one thing that worries me.
The Bucks are a great red zone offense. They get touchdowns,
(23:27):
not field goals. But I think the Eagles, Jalen Hurts
is now healthy, are a handful to play. This is
not your typical run offense. They lead the NFL and
big plays by the way, big plays being ten yard
plus runs and twenty yard plus passes. Tampa is beat up.
They are a beat up football team. And the Eagles
(23:48):
all year long, even against good defenses, have been bizarrely productive.
I think Tampa wins, but an offense that was completely
limited in the first round last year gave them trouble.
I think the Eagles keep it close. Weather's a non factor.
The healthier team is Philadelphia. I worry about Brady getting
(24:11):
in the rend zone. He gets seven's not threes, and
that could push the line higher and push the score higher.
But I would take the Eagles sharper square very sharp again.
Another huge pros Joe's game. Sixty three percent of the
bets on the Bucks fifty eight percent of the money
on the Eagles. That tells you professionals are coming in
(24:33):
on the Eagles. This line opened at ten, it got
that down to eight and a half. Bookmakers saw that
was sort of the hard stop for professionals, better for
professional betters. When it got to eight and a half,
it went back up to nine and then went back
down to eight and a half. One thing I will
correct you on weather is expected to be a factor.
(24:54):
It could be very windy. There could be a thunderstorms.
The reason the professional better is like this game is
they do expect it to be relatively low scoring. They
do expect the Eagles to be pretty conservative. With Jalen
Hurts in his first NFL playoff game and They've just
proven like they're going to run the ball. That's what
(25:15):
they like to do. And I think a lot of
guys are saying, not only do we like the Eagles
in the game, we're also going to bet the Eagles
in the first half because we've seen the Eagles play
a very slow tempo a lot of games for the
Eagles zero points, three point seven points, So take a
little taste on the Eagles in the first half too.
All right, this is the strangest one. I love the
Niners all week, all week. Now everybody loves the Niners.
(25:38):
It's no longer an upset. So at three I would
probably take Dallas Sharper square square. So this was also
on the radio today. You talked about you want to
bet against Bob from Sheboygan. Ye right, were using the
forty nine ers as your example number one. As a
Chicago in northern Chicago, in north Shore Chicago, in the suburbs,
(26:01):
I've been to Sheboygan a million times. It's beautiful in Sheboygan.
You can't get a good bowl of soup, and Sheboygan
I've been told, oh my god, are you kidding me?
It's like the soup capital of the Midwest. Of course
you can get a good bowl of soup. And Sheboygan,
what are you going to do in Wisconsin other than
get a good bowl of soup? My wife, but we
lived to New York. We first started living in New York.
(26:22):
I used to always say to her, I want to
move back to Chicago. I want to move back to Chicago.
She looks at me and she goes listen, divide the
option between going to the Hampton's for the summer or
going to Sheboygan, Why would I go back to Chicago?
Jokes on HERCS. I moved her to central Connecticut. Now
we can't get anywhere. But Sheboygan's great Bobby from Sheboygan
(26:44):
is going to be on the Cowboys. The pros are
going to be on the Niners. Um And you know
you talked about this with Cosell, Right, you talked with
Greg Cosell. You talked about Greg Kittle being able to
get open over the middle, George about about George Kittle, Right,
you talked about that, about Deebo Samuel getting open, right, Like,
this is where the forty nine ers will have an advantage.
(27:06):
And then on defense they can control the line of
scrimmage because Their rushedie offense is so good, and they
can make the Cowboys one dimensional, which is not great
when Ezekiel Elliott has not been able to function very
well as a running back and Dak has struggled as
a quarterback. So it's a coaching mitch match, miss match.
I think it's a personnel in miss match. I think
the wise guys like the forty nine ers. What's scaring
(27:30):
them is the very first thing you said. The wise
guys don't like to be with public dogs, and the
forty nine Ers are becoming a public dog. They are
the team that everybody thinks is going to cover against
the Cowboys, will potentially beat the Cowboys, So that's giving
them a little bit of pause. But they're on the
Niners Steelers plus twelve and a half. At the Chiefs,
(27:50):
I've been saying Kansas City's offense is uneven. Pittsburgh though,
I'm not sure how they can move the ball. Mike
Tomlin's a great underdog coach, but I've got to tell you,
Pittsburgh is painful offensively, and I have a feeling the
Chiefs went in a route. I know it's square, right,
(28:11):
It's a little bit square, but not totally square, like
this is one where you're not going to get a consensus.
The line has moved down a little bit, went from
about thirteen and a half to twelve and a half.
So you know, the professionals came in on the Steelers.
But everything you said is why guys are thinking about
the Chiefs. And I mentioned sort of the advantage and
(28:34):
what the metrics and the analytics say or the stats
say about underdogs in the playoffs that are of less
than a touchdown more than a touchdown, they tend to cover.
The favorites tend to cover. And this is a spot
where the Chiefs of twelve and a half, we know
(28:55):
it's a Rara Mike Tomlin situation. His defense is going
to have to carry the cheerleading for this team. And
I do think like the one thing they do really
well is rush the passer. Patrick Mahomes knows how to
handle the rush. This Chiefs team could score fourteen points
and still cover the spread because the Steelers might not
(29:16):
be able to score at all. Big Ben in the
last three games he was only his average completion went
for seven point two yards. I know his yards per
a tenth were four, Like he just looks washed. I
think he's holding it together with duct tape right now. Finally,
I don't like this as a bet. I take the
(29:37):
Cardinals plus four or now plus three and a half
on FanDuel at the Rams, I would take the Cardinals,
not with any confidence. By the way, there's only two
of these games. I love the Patriots plus the points,
the Eagles plus the points, and I could be talked
into the Bengals if it got down to like four.
I think that's a really strong play. I don't want
(29:58):
to touch this, but I would say Cardinals plush three
and a half. Four feels like the right side Sharper square.
I mean they faced each other. McVay owns Cliff, so
he owns them, like like Shanahan owns mcmay. McVay owns
Cliff Kingsbury. But I just think the Cardinals are the
hardest team for me in the second half of the
year to bet on because so much of their offense
(30:21):
is based on ad living by Kyler Murray. I don't
feel like I have any control on any of the data.
If he gets flushed out, he's often more dangerous than
when he's in the pocket. So I find them really
hard to bet on. There's not a lot of certainties
with our offense. Remember in the beginning of the year
we said by the end of the year, you're going
(30:43):
to earn your sharp certificate. You just earned it, Boom,
because your analysis in this game is exactly how the
wise guys are thinking. They don't love it. They know
the Cardinals plus four plus three and a half on
the right side. They know that the Rams secondary is
(31:07):
in such bad shape. They just signed Eric Weddle, who
hasn't played since before COVID. They know that Matthew Stafford
has been struggling mightily. His QB rating has dropped since
in the second half of the year, YPA yards per
attempt is down, interceptions have shot up. What did a
Key to Leap say on your podcast after the Stafford
(31:30):
signing in the summer that other players in the league
were saying, Matthew Stafford like nobody is afraid of him.
Nobody was thinking it's an automatic Super Bowl trip for
the Rams. Arizona's defense is sixth in DVOA, which is
like the fancy way of saying their defense plays really well.
When you try to wait their schedule against the rest
(31:53):
of the league, it's really good. Defensively, they have outgained
the Rams extend of Lee in the two games they've played.
So everything you're saying about wanting to take the Cardinals
is right. But Cliff Kingsbury is a terrible coach come November,
just awful. Like this team has been dreadful since the
(32:14):
second half of the year started. One good game against
the Cowboys, against the Cowboys team with a bad coach
that was struggling. You take the Cardinals and you hold
your nose. Yeah. I really like the Patriots. I really
like the Eagles, and I and I should I wait
on the Bengals until game time? You can? I mean, look,
(32:35):
there's continuing the money is continuing to come in. I
took the four and a half, So if you like
the Bengals, take the four and a half. That would
be my advice. That today FanDuel had the lowest number
at four and a half. I don't know that it
will get to four. I think it like for some games,
(32:59):
if you're thinking about it, the Patriots might get interesting,
like as it gets closer, if you love the Patriots,
it might get to four and a half by Sunday,
So you might want to stick around and wait. You
might want to wait on that, but you're not wrong.
Like the game, the wise guys have all circled as
the Patriots, and they all love the Bucks. I mean,
they all love the Eagles. So your your spidy sense
(33:22):
is spot on, all right, buddy, can't wait? Talk soon,
Talk to you. Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network
(33:43):
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Please use the promo code Colin so they know we
sent you. Please use the promo code Collins c O
L I in FanDuel sports Book App sign up. Hi, Everybody.
Sharpen Square with Chad Millman will be coming up in
(02:27):
ten minutes, but first fake questions, real answers every Friday
Morning podcast stuff I want to talk about but don't
want to wait for you to ask me. Here we go.
Dear Colin, Hey, you got a little blowback for saying
that you received a weird text about Aaron Rodgers, just
like Boomera Siason did. What are you going to say? Well,
I'm just telling you what happened. Sorry if that makes
(02:49):
you uncomfortable. Yes, I received a text several years ago
from a number in Virginia that had bizarrely detailed information
about the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. I didn't say it
was a fact that Aaron was behind it. I didn't
say anybody in Green Bay was absolutely or definitively behind it.
I said it was fishy as hell, especially once I
got that boomer as science and stuff. First of all,
(03:11):
if you want to blame somebody for spreading misinformation, how
about Aaron Rodgers. He's giving people medical advice and telling
them to follow doctor Joe Rogan about vaccines. Aaron often
wants the media to be more responsible. Yeah, yeah, I
really liked your vaccine hocus pocus. He's not really anybody
to tell anybody who's responsible and irresponsible. Aaron is one
(03:36):
of those guys that wants to see both sides of
a story. Well, I'll give you my side. My side
is that was a weird text. Boomer got a weird text.
They were both from the same state. I wanted to
tell the story. All the anti media people aren't really antimedia.
Packer fence. You guys in the media, you're not antimedia.
(03:57):
You're just anti media. You don't agree with right. You
think Rachel Maddow and that Russian Trump story's nonsense. You
don't trust her. You're a conservative. And by the way,
you liberals don't trust these conservatives because of what Tucker
Carlson says every night. People only want media they agree with.
(04:17):
Even liberals love Bill Maher until he sort of takes
a moderate conservative side. Then they go to Twitter and say,
mars Toast, I haven't watched him in twenty years. It's
sort of like liberals do with Dave Chappelle. Now I'm
suddenly supposed to believe he's not funny because of a
joke he did that landed poorly to many people. Stop
(04:40):
you consume the media. It doesn't matter if you like it.
Dear Colin, what do you make of the Houston Texans
firing David Culley. Well, he signed a two year contract,
and even though I think he deserved a second year.
Lots of relationships are stop gaps. Sometimes you date, sometimes
you marry, sometimes you sometimes you buy, sometimes you lease,
(05:02):
sometimes you buy. We all have employment options where we
don't plan on working in a company forever. David Culley,
in my opinion, deserved a second year. I thought the
Texans play hard despite very limited talent. I mean, hell,
they beat the Chargers late in the season. But this
was not a five year contract. He got a massive,
(05:23):
massive payout to leave. Everybody understood it was a stop
gap move because no elite candidates wanted it last year
because of several reasons, one bad ownership and the other
the Deshaun Watson mess. But folks, this is the way
life works. Anybody think Joe Biden's a two term president.
(05:46):
Do I think there should be more black coaches? Absolutely? Do.
I think it feels like African American coaches have to
prove themselves more. Absolutely. I hated the Brian Flores fire.
But in this instance, David Culley, we knew it going in.
This was a short contract. This was going to be
(06:07):
a short term solution to a big long term problem.
Dear Colin, how come Tom Brady looks great at forty
four and Big Ben looks done at thirty nine. Well,
successful people often know there's one thing more important than learning,
and that's unlearning the easy parts learning. It's getting rid
(06:31):
of bad habits and bad ideas and pivoting to new stuff.
That's hard. You've got to be self critical. Tom Brady
at forty four looks like a totally different person at
twenty two. He's thinner, he looks better. Big Ben's thirty
nine looks like a totally different person than twenty nine
in a bad way. Benzo was reminded me of Brett Farve.
(06:51):
Good old boys, lack discipline, had mobility, took a lot
of hits, kind of conservative, kind of stubborn. Both didn't
have nearly the same success late in their careers as
they did early. Football's always been from scheme to coaching
to body, a game of evolving. It's constantly changing, even
the rules are. It's not the bomb it out gun
(07:13):
slinger league it used to be. The quarterbacks now that
are crushing are more efficient. I want to have a
twenty year career in the league. You got to be
willing to unlearn as much as learn. Dear Colin, what's
something that fans do that to you is annoying and
drives you nuts? Well, fans o was rip coaches and
(07:36):
players that they would actually be thrilled to have on
their team. Remember when TiO planted the football in the
Dallas Star and the cowboy. Fans said what a jerk?
And then he became a cowboy and two hours later
he was their favorite player. This reminds me of Jim Harball.
How many Ohio State fans are there listening? Any of
(07:57):
you in Chicago. You've been banging on Harbaugh for years
at Michigan. Wouldn't you take him as your head coach?
Oh my bad, You're gonna go with Brian Dayble, a
coordinator who's never been a head coach over a guy
with a sixty five percent winning percentage and a Super
Bowl trip in Jim Harbaugh. It's like Jimmy Garoppolo. Everybody
(08:18):
bangs on Jimmy Garoppolo. He has a career passer rating
of almost ninety nine, a career completion percentage of almost
sixty eight. You're a Washington fan, a Pittsburgh fan, a
Denver fan, you wouldn't take him. Be careful about bagging
on coaches and players because you may be desperate and
(08:39):
have a vacancy really soon at those positions. Dear Colin,
lots of athletes are underrated and overrated. We know that.
Give me an athlete in your opinion that doesn't get
nearly as much credit as he should. I'll give you
somebody Eli Manning. Because his brother is Peyton, we immediately
(09:00):
overlook him. But a quarterback is probably not gonna look
as great when you compare him to one of the
greatest quarterbacks of all time. It's like saying Janet Jackson
was a disappointment because she wasn't Michael Jackson. Janet Jackson
was a huge star for twenty years. Listen, the Giants
were a mess before Eli, and now they're a mess.
They were four and twelve and two thousand and three.
(09:22):
They draft him. By two thousand and five, they're eleven
and five. By two thousand and seven, they win the
Super Bowl. He's MVP two and eleven. They do it
again both times over Brady and Belichick. After the twenty
fifteen season, they get it to Coughlin in twenty sixteen.
With Eli, they go eleven and five and it's all
downhill from there. His last full season was twenty eighteen.
(09:43):
For the record, ELI had a passer rating that year
of ninety two and a half. Do you know where
that would be this year? Somewhere between Mac Jones and
Josh Allen. Eli Manning has never gotten the credit he deserved.
The Giants were a disaster before they drafted him, and
a disaster right after they bailed on him. His composure,
(10:05):
his intelligence, his decency, his commitment, his leadership are one
of the primary reasons they've been a mess for all
but the ELI years in the last twenty five years.
All right, I bring in my buddy Chad Milman, sharp
or square. I make my picks. He takes them and
(10:28):
pokes and prods them. So I hear that. You listen
to my radio show yesterday. What did you make of me,
the orator espousing theories and belief systems? What you make
of it? Listen? You know there are very few people
who are a bigger fan of yours than I am.
Blah blah blah whatever. Maybe there might be no one
(10:51):
else who is as talented in media as you are,
please go on this whole Tom Brady, you know, had
a better the conversation about the MVP, you were talking
about Burrow, you're talking about Aaron Rodgers, you're talking about
Tom Brady, and your take tom Brady shouldn't really be
in consideration because his roster was better. That's idiotic. Like
(11:16):
the goal is to win as many games as possible,
to perform as well as you can, and to take
your team to the highest level. So your argument is
that two years ago Tom Brady took over a roster
that was eight and eight with Jameis Winston, and because
he won them the Super Bowl, all it's really doing
is saying he was okay, he just had really good
(11:38):
players behind him. Well, no, I didn't say he was okay.
I said, if you're making me vote between Burrow, Rogers,
and Brady, they're all absolutely candidates. I would vote for
Burrow because he's overcoming more. He has a much He
has to face the Steelers defense, the Bengal or the
Ravens defense, and the Browns defense. Twice. He wins the
division with the worst offensive line in the playoffs, and
(12:00):
we don't even know if Zach Taylor's a coach because
he couldn't win before he got there, whereas we know
fundamentally Green Bay's well run. I think you can vote
for any of them. I was just saying, if you
really want to count everything, Aaron Rodgers missed the game
against the Chiefs, Burrow played the Chiefs and Outdual Mahomes,
I could take that as one tenth. Brady I think
(12:21):
has a better roster top to bottom than Green Bay
and Cincinnati. I really think Tampa's roster when healthy is
the best roster in football. I mean when Leonard Fournette
and Gronk and I think it's the best roster in football.
So I don't care who anybody votes for. I'm just saying,
if we're gonna go, here's what bothers me. If Aaron loses,
it's gonna be Oh, it's because of the vaccine stance.
(12:45):
And I'm like, people, the two greatest years ever in
league history for a quarterback, Peyton Manning had won, Brady
had one. Neither was a unanimous MVP, like, it's inches
not feed on this step exactly. I also thought one.
I love Hubbarkish, who has come out and made all
these statements about Aaron Rodgers gave me my fairy first
(13:08):
job in journalism. I grew up outside Chicago. My end
of my freshman year at Indiana University, I needed to
get a job for this summer. I go back home.
I wanted to work in journalism. I look in the
phone book. I grew up in a town called Highland Park.
I look in the phone book for which is on
the north shore of Chicagos, where all the John Hughes
movies were made. For all like the old people like
(13:28):
I still recognize the reference. So I look in the
phone book and I'm looking for sort of local media.
And one of the lines for local media is Pro
Football Weekly, which was a national magazine, which I did
not know was located ten minutes from my house in
like a small office complex. I go there. I call.
(13:52):
I'm like, hey, I go to Indiana University. I'm a freshman,
I'm a journalism major. You guys got any internship opportunities?
They say, why don't you come in when you get home?
So I go in. I interview and with Hubbarkish, who
runs Pro Football Weekly. They give me a job on
the spot, making eight dollars an hour as an editor
because the editor they had an editor who on that
(14:13):
Friday had just quit to go cover the Bears for
like a local school, local newspaper. So I worked as
an editor in Pro Football Weekly in my first job,
and Hubarkish was my boss. Yeah, I didn't like his
reason for not voting for Aaron, but I don't have
a problem if you don't vote for Erin. I just
didn't like his reasoning because he thinks he's a jerk. Yeah,
didn't make sense. Also, you had a clip today not
(14:34):
to make this all about you on your podcast. You
had a clip today about Kevin Durant saying we're not
answering to the media. And as soon as he said it,
I'm like, of course, there's no one ingrier who drives
more pleasure from doing well and then telling the media
that he doesn't care about them than Kevin Durant. And
then you said it, which means all he does is
care about the media. Yeah, Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Durant
(14:57):
preached to us weekly, I don't care about the media.
You care constantly about the media. It bothers you and
we all get it all right, Here we go Sharper
Square the Raiders at the Bengals. I've gone back and
forth on this. I would take the Raiders and the points.
And here's why I worry about the Bengals offensive front.
You can't correct it. They don't run the ball unless
(15:20):
it's a necessity. They want to throw, they want to
do deep drops, and the Raiders have a pass rush.
I think we're going to see points in this game,
but the Bengals. I talked to Greg Kosel this week.
He said, listen, the Bengals, not that they've given up
in the run game, but they've identified what they are.
They're a big play down the field offense. Well, these
two teams played earlier. They couldn't block the Raiders at all.
(15:44):
So I just think the points is too many. It's
like minus four and a half. Now, I think I
take the Raiders and the points, although I think the
Bengals win close sharper square, so it's totally sharp. I
think you're getting the worst of the number. And for
the record, I'm telling you it's sharp. I bet the
Bengals at four and a half, and I think I'm
(16:06):
on the opposite side of a lot of professional betters.
You are one hundred percent sharp here so many trends,
and we're going to talk about this with a lot
of the games today. Favor NFL short NFL short underdogs
on the road in the playoffs dogs are fifteen and
three in Wildcard weekend ten and eight. Straight up road
(16:28):
dogs fourteen and two fifty five percent overall since two
thousand and three. The other numbers are since twenty seventeen.
And the Raiders fit this bill right, and a lot
of wise guys came in and they started betting on
the Raiders. When the line was a little bit higher,
they bet it down to five and a half. They
(16:49):
bet it down to five. Now it's down to four
and a half. You can find a lot of sort
of similarities between these two teams offensively and defensively, sort
of accordinate to the advanced metrics. They're kind of in
the same spot. And so it's a huge pros Joe's game.
Eighty percent of the money on the Raiders majority in
the bets, and the Bengals you're one hundred percent on
(17:11):
the right side. I'm just going to give you a
different take that I favor the Bengals. A you talk
about Joe Burrow, I just think He's the kind of
guy who's a playmaker, and in this scenario, when the
line is shrinking with a smaller number, it favors him
late game or I have a lot more faith than
him than I do in the Raiders. And I'm also
(17:32):
a little bit concerned for the Raiders. They had a
massive overtime game. The defense played nearly ninety snaps late
Sunday night. They've got a turn around, played the first
game on Saturday. It's a short week for them. We've
seen them lose to bad teams. So that's why I
like the Bengals a little bit more. But I will
tell you again, you're on the right side. You're making
(17:54):
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supply Patriots. I take them plus four against the Bills.
(21:54):
It's going to be five degrees, not snowing, slight wind,
but that's going to hurt the offense, and it's obvious
more skilled. That's the kind of weather you drop passes in.
It's five degrees. The Bills are the better football team.
New England's going to run the football, shorten the clock,
give themselves a shot. I like the fact that New
England lost more recently to them and was kind of dominated.
(22:19):
I think it's hard to beat Belichick back to back.
I mean, Miami through the years has had average coaches
that have split with him. It is hard. Brian Flores
did it this year, beat him both times. It is
a limited team against a good defense, but the Bills
are missing their top corner from earlier this year. I
take the Patriots and the points sharper square, totally sharp,
another pros Joe's game. The wise guys are coming in
(22:42):
on the Patriots and the public is coming in on
the Bills. So I mentioned some stats before about road,
about about underdogs in the playoffs. Yeah, since twenty seventeen,
NFL underdogs in the playoffs twenty nine and seventeen. And
this especially favors short underdogs. And so we've got two
(23:06):
outliers and the Steelers in the Chiefs. I know we'll
get to those, but the other games, like we're talking
about short dogs. It's why you like the Raiders, It's
why everybody likes the Patriots. That is professional better. All right,
I'm gonna take the Eagles plus eight and a half
at the Buccaneers. Now here's the one thing that worries me.
The Bucks are a great red zone offense. They get touchdowns,
(23:27):
not field goals. But I think the Eagles, Jalen Hurts
is now healthy, are a handful to play. This is
not your typical run offense. They lead the NFL and
big plays by the way, big plays being ten yard
plus runs and twenty yard plus passes. Tampa is beat up.
They are a beat up football team. And the Eagles
(23:48):
all year long, even against good defenses, have been bizarrely productive.
I think Tampa wins, but an offense that was completely
limited in the first round last year gave them trouble.
I think the Eagles keep it close. Weather's a non factor.
The healthier team is Philadelphia. I worry about Brady getting
(24:11):
in the rend zone. He gets seven's not threes, and
that could push the line higher and push the score higher.
But I would take the Eagles sharper square very sharp again.
Another huge pros Joe's game. Sixty three percent of the
bets on the Bucks fifty eight percent of the money
on the Eagles. That tells you professionals are coming in
(24:33):
on the Eagles. This line opened at ten, it got
that down to eight and a half. Bookmakers saw that
was sort of the hard stop for professionals, better for
professional betters. When it got to eight and a half,
it went back up to nine and then went back
down to eight and a half. One thing I will
correct you on weather is expected to be a factor.
(24:54):
It could be very windy. There could be a thunderstorms.
The reason the professional better is like this game is
they do expect it to be relatively low scoring. They
do expect the Eagles to be pretty conservative. With Jalen
Hurts in his first NFL playoff game and They've just
proven like they're going to run the ball. That's what
(25:15):
they like to do. And I think a lot of
guys are saying, not only do we like the Eagles
in the game, we're also going to bet the Eagles
in the first half because we've seen the Eagles play
a very slow tempo a lot of games for the
Eagles zero points, three point seven points, So take a
little taste on the Eagles in the first half too.
All right, this is the strangest one. I love the
Niners all week, all week. Now everybody loves the Niners.
(25:38):
It's no longer an upset. So at three I would
probably take Dallas Sharper square square. So this was also
on the radio today. You talked about you want to
bet against Bob from Sheboygan. Ye right, were using the
forty nine ers as your example number one. As a
Chicago in northern Chicago, in north Shore Chicago, in the suburbs,
(26:01):
I've been to Sheboygan a million times. It's beautiful in Sheboygan.
You can't get a good bowl of soup, and Sheboygan
I've been told, oh my god, are you kidding me?
It's like the soup capital of the Midwest. Of course
you can get a good bowl of soup. And Sheboygan,
what are you going to do in Wisconsin other than
get a good bowl of soup? My wife, but we
lived to New York. We first started living in New York.
(26:22):
I used to always say to her, I want to
move back to Chicago. I want to move back to Chicago.
She looks at me and she goes listen, divide the
option between going to the Hampton's for the summer or
going to Sheboygan, Why would I go back to Chicago?
Jokes on HERCS. I moved her to central Connecticut. Now
we can't get anywhere. But Sheboygan's great Bobby from Sheboygan
(26:44):
is going to be on the Cowboys. The pros are
going to be on the Niners. Um And you know
you talked about this with Cosell, Right, you talked with
Greg Cosell. You talked about Greg Kittle being able to
get open over the middle, George about about George Kittle, Right,
you talked about that, about Deebo Samuel getting open, right, Like,
this is where the forty nine ers will have an advantage.
(27:06):
And then on defense they can control the line of
scrimmage because Their rushedie offense is so good, and they
can make the Cowboys one dimensional, which is not great
when Ezekiel Elliott has not been able to function very
well as a running back and Dak has struggled as
a quarterback. So it's a coaching mitch match, miss match.
I think it's a personnel in miss match. I think
the wise guys like the forty nine ers. What's scaring
(27:30):
them is the very first thing you said. The wise
guys don't like to be with public dogs, and the
forty nine Ers are becoming a public dog. They are
the team that everybody thinks is going to cover against
the Cowboys, will potentially beat the Cowboys, So that's giving
them a little bit of pause. But they're on the
Niners Steelers plus twelve and a half. At the Chiefs,
(27:50):
I've been saying Kansas City's offense is uneven. Pittsburgh though,
I'm not sure how they can move the ball. Mike
Tomlin's a great underdog coach, but I've got to tell you,
Pittsburgh is painful offensively, and I have a feeling the
Chiefs went in a route. I know it's square, right,
(28:11):
It's a little bit square, but not totally square, like
this is one where you're not going to get a consensus.
The line has moved down a little bit, went from
about thirteen and a half to twelve and a half.
So you know, the professionals came in on the Steelers.
But everything you said is why guys are thinking about
the Chiefs. And I mentioned sort of the advantage and
(28:34):
what the metrics and the analytics say or the stats
say about underdogs in the playoffs that are of less
than a touchdown more than a touchdown, they tend to cover.
The favorites tend to cover. And this is a spot
where the Chiefs of twelve and a half, we know
(28:55):
it's a Rara Mike Tomlin situation. His defense is going
to have to carry the cheerleading for this team. And
I do think like the one thing they do really
well is rush the passer. Patrick Mahomes knows how to
handle the rush. This Chiefs team could score fourteen points
and still cover the spread because the Steelers might not
(29:16):
be able to score at all. Big Ben in the
last three games he was only his average completion went
for seven point two yards. I know his yards per
a tenth were four, Like he just looks washed. I
think he's holding it together with duct tape right now. Finally,
I don't like this as a bet. I take the
(29:37):
Cardinals plus four or now plus three and a half
on FanDuel at the Rams, I would take the Cardinals,
not with any confidence. By the way, there's only two
of these games. I love the Patriots plus the points,
the Eagles plus the points, and I could be talked
into the Bengals if it got down to like four.
I think that's a really strong play. I don't want
(29:58):
to touch this, but I would say Cardinals plush three
and a half. Four feels like the right side Sharper square.
I mean they faced each other. McVay owns Cliff, so
he owns them, like like Shanahan owns mcmay. McVay owns
Cliff Kingsbury. But I just think the Cardinals are the
hardest team for me in the second half of the
year to bet on because so much of their offense
(30:21):
is based on ad living by Kyler Murray. I don't
feel like I have any control on any of the data.
If he gets flushed out, he's often more dangerous than
when he's in the pocket. So I find them really
hard to bet on. There's not a lot of certainties
with our offense. Remember in the beginning of the year
we said by the end of the year, you're going
(30:43):
to earn your sharp certificate. You just earned it, Boom,
because your analysis in this game is exactly how the
wise guys are thinking. They don't love it. They know
the Cardinals plus four plus three and a half on
the right side. They know that the Rams secondary is
(31:07):
in such bad shape. They just signed Eric Weddle, who
hasn't played since before COVID. They know that Matthew Stafford
has been struggling mightily. His QB rating has dropped since
in the second half of the year, YPA yards per
attempt is down, interceptions have shot up. What did a
Key to Leap say on your podcast after the Stafford
(31:30):
signing in the summer that other players in the league
were saying, Matthew Stafford like nobody is afraid of him.
Nobody was thinking it's an automatic Super Bowl trip for
the Rams. Arizona's defense is sixth in DVOA, which is
like the fancy way of saying their defense plays really well.
When you try to wait their schedule against the rest
(31:53):
of the league, it's really good. Defensively, they have outgained
the Rams extend of Lee in the two games they've played.
So everything you're saying about wanting to take the Cardinals
is right. But Cliff Kingsbury is a terrible coach come November,
just awful. Like this team has been dreadful since the
(32:14):
second half of the year started. One good game against
the Cowboys, against the Cowboys team with a bad coach
that was struggling. You take the Cardinals and you hold
your nose. Yeah. I really like the Patriots. I really
like the Eagles, and I and I should I wait
on the Bengals until game time? You can? I mean, look,
(32:35):
there's continuing the money is continuing to come in. I
took the four and a half, So if you like
the Bengals, take the four and a half. That would
be my advice. That today FanDuel had the lowest number
at four and a half. I don't know that it
will get to four. I think it like for some games,
(32:59):
if you're thinking about it, the Patriots might get interesting,
like as it gets closer, if you love the Patriots,
it might get to four and a half by Sunday,
So you might want to stick around and wait. You
might want to wait on that, but you're not wrong.
Like the game, the wise guys have all circled as
the Patriots, and they all love the Bucks. I mean,
they all love the Eagles. So your your spidy sense
(33:22):
is spot on, all right, buddy, can't wait? Talk soon,
Talk to you. Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network
(33:43):
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