Know which WR fantasy football positional battles to pay attention to as NFL training camps officially open for business! Join Seth Woolcock, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown as they sort out the messiest wide receiver rooms from across the league!
Could a dark horse emerge as the Green Bay Packers' WR1? Can Buffalo Bills WR Keon Coleman take a step forward in year two? Plus, should you be targeting Kansas Chiefs WR Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy in drafts?
The Pros put themselves inside the facilities to find the next breakout pass-catchers!
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San Francisco 49ers - 0:02:34
Autographed James Cook Buffalo Bills Jersey Giveaway - 0:12:01
Green Bay Packers - 0:12:26
Buffalo Bills - 0:20:18
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Chicago Bears - 0:27:13
Kansas City Chiefs - 0:37:00
Outro - 0:46:56
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
We've got part two of depth chart Dilemmas on deck
for you today, breaking down the murkiest wide receiver rooms
from around the NFL. In part one, we did cover
running backs, so make sure you go back check out
that episode if you haven't already. I'm your host Seth Wilcock,
and today I'm joined by the boys, Pat fitz Morris
(00:23):
and Derek Brown. Debro As noted, it's all about wide
receivers in this particular program. Really the bread of the
fantasy football sandwich, if you would, meaning it's tough to
win without good ones. Is that a fair analogy? And
what's your one on one a sandwiches?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
My friend?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Oh, I think I'm more on the meat side of that.
And the one on one of sandwiches hot dog?
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Right?
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Oh no, come on.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
In there, baby, sandwich. Just leave it with that and
I'll walk away.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Pat, how are you?
Speaker 1 (00:54):
And do you have any sandwich or bread related takes to.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Get out of the way at the top here?
Speaker 5 (00:59):
Oh? Man?
Speaker 6 (01:00):
And doing well? And I'm off carbs right now, so
now you're just making Yeah, just another couple of weeks,
but man, you're making me think of how much I
could go for an Italian sub right now? And uh,
you know the one O two of sandwiches. Maybe a
good Ruben. I do like me a good ruben.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I agree.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I agree that the crowd on the sandwich is always
good for me. Out here and in Western we also
puts on the sandwich. Have you tried a Primanny brother sandwich,
either of you guys with the slaw right on?
Speaker 6 (01:32):
I have not been saying slaw and fries right. Yes,
they put it all right on the sub.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (01:37):
I have to get to Primancy Brothers in Pittsburgh. That
is a life goal that I have yet to fulfill.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
Come on down, never never, kroud guy. Sorry, I'm not sorry.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I think we also got into this foundation.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Forget it all.
Speaker 6 (01:51):
I p as toss them all in the same You'll
get those adult in one of these days.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Man, And now the role but ketchup.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Okay, I'm not saying to put it on your freaking eggs,
and I'm not saying to put it on steak.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
There ain't unrolled with ketchup.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
No, not a sandwich. That's that's like a blow is okay?
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Come on, okay, okay, all right, well, we've got a
breakdown of the five messiest wide receiver rooms coming your
way today, and as always before we jump in. If
you want more fans football takes, if you want more
sandwich and food takes, make sure you're tuning in here
on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or listening on the
podcast feed on the Reggie. Thank you so much for
the poor easiest freeway supporters. Give this video a thumbs up.
(02:30):
If you do, just have a content make sure you're
subscribing if you're new. Let's go ahead and start boys
in the Bay Area, where things got a lot more
complicated recently. We all expected Brandon Au to land on
the pup to start camp after coming off that torn
acl last season. However, we now have second year wide
receiver Ricky Piersoll, a popular breakout candidate, also placed on
(02:52):
the pup to start training camp with a hamstring injury.
And then there's Juwan Jennings, who wants a new deal
or to be traded from the four forty nine ers
after career seventy seven catch nearly a thousand yard season
six touchdowns scored in twenty twenty four for him, pat
what looked like in appealing trio mid round targets. Now
peers be a potential disaster. How do you sort it out?
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Yeah, everyone's either unhappy or hurt seth. And when they
are healthy, they're gonna be sharing targets with George Kittle
and Christian McCaffrey. So this is a messy room without question.
And it seems like Juwan Jennings is the guy gendering
some serious heat out in the Twitter streets. Like every year,
there are a few players who inspire the Fantasy analyst
crusades where everyone is grabbing a sword and shield and
(03:37):
waiting into battle on one side of the other for
one player or a couple players, And Juwan Jennings is
one of those guys this year. Now, personally, I don't
think he's a bad buy at his current price. His
ADP is wide receiver thirty nine. I think is ECR
is one spot higher. Pretty modest investment for a guy
who did pop last year. When given an opportunity. You know,
(04:00):
some people say, well, if he didn't have the one
hundred and seventy five yard three touchdown game, his numbers
wouldn't look so good. But Jennings, he was not bad
at like checking in with a little something every week.
I think there were only five games where he finished
with under fifty receiving yards. I do have to admit, though, Seth,
I am a little skeptical about an age twenty seven
(04:20):
breakout from a former seventh round draft pick who unquestionably
benefited from injuries to other San Francisco wide receivers. We
had Ricky Pearsov getting shot and missing time early in
the season. We had Brandon Ayuk with a major knee
injury missing time later in the season. Jennings averaged two
point twenty six yards per ut run last year, which
is great, but in his other three seasons he was
(04:42):
under one point four to zero yards per rout run,
which is pretty terrible. Even with the big yards per
route run number, last season, he's up to one point
six to two for his career now. Like I know,
Ricky Piersoll only averaged one point three one yards per
rout run last season. Not a good number, but Piersal
did miss a lot of time in the season after
being shot, probably needed some time to sort of reintegrate
(05:04):
himself into the offense. Didn't play until Week seven, didn't
really pop until the last two games, but he popped
in a big way. Eight catches one hundred and forty
one yards one touchdown in week seventeen, six for sixty
nine in a touchdown in Week eighteen. He's the guy
I'm slightly more interested in. I think there's more upside
from this former first rounder who's pretty athletic than there
(05:27):
is from Jennings, And I'm just not real interested in.
Ayuku's probably gonna open the regular season on pop, missed
the first six weeks, and probably need some time to
get in after that. Like just a guy, You're probably
not comfortably starting until week ten at the earliest.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
No, thanks, de Bro.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
This is almost kind of a fantasy philosophy question in
a way, because let's throw Ayuk out for a second.
Let's assume Jawan Jennings starts the season as the team's
X receiver. Ricky Piersoll probably more manned the flanker in
two wide receiver sets in the slot in three wider sets,
kind of that Deebo Samuel s frule. If you would, so,
which do you prefer Jennings at the X at wide
(06:06):
receiver thirty eight in ECR or pearsaw opens on the
pup potentially in that Samuel role wide receiver forty six
in ECR, I use two spots behind him at forty eight.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I'm taking shots on both Pearsol and Jennings, Okay, I
think straight up, I mean it just some of this
kind of depends on what we don't know right now
with Pearsol's hamstring injury, assuming because he could start the
camp on the pup and come off at any time,
so like this could be by the time that people
are listening to this, because this could be a non factor,
like he could be practicing in full and all of
(06:37):
that is in the rear view. So for me, I'm
not I'm not going to bump down Pearsall too much
because of the hamstring injury because there's a lot of
unknown there, like severity how long it's going to keep
him out, and I think that's going to affect his
ADP and his draft stock and his outlook. So kind
of approaching this with a glass half full approach, like
saying Pearsaw comes back in more short order. I want
(07:00):
shots on Jennings am Piersol, Like I think both of
them are fantastic values where they're going in that wide
receiver three range, and I've got both them ranked like
right next to each other basically in the wide receiver
three range, and I want to take shots on both
of them, like Jennings. To Pat's point, Jennings was fantastic
last year and not including in this sample that I'm
about to discuss, This isn't including that monster blow up game,
(07:23):
and so stating that he was still really freaking good.
So weeks ten through eighteen, without Brandon Ayuk in the lineup,
you had Jennings commanding a twenty five point one percent
target chare, averaging sixty three point four receiving yards per game,
two point two yards per route run, a thirty two
point seven percent first reach cheer, and point one pin
one three first downs per route run. To give people context,
(07:45):
if he had kept up that that pace the entirety
of the season amongst all wide receivers, of these fifty targets,
he would ranked tenth, twenty third, twenty second, eleventh, and
fourteenth in those categories. And this is without the blow
up game, and he was havingveraging fourteen point one PPR
points per game in that process. That would have made
him the wide receiver twenty six on the season. So
(08:08):
at this price tag, it's free money for Juwan Jennings.
And I really like Ricky Piersoll, Like this guy comes
to the one hundred foot view. I think the entire
San Francisco offense is under price this offseason because people
don't know what to do with it. It is an ambiguous
situation and play. They're like, can the twenty seven year
old breakout keep it up? I mean, he's got a
(08:29):
lot in his bag that says that he probably can
keep it up. Even if you just look at per
route metrics thirty fourth in separation, fourteenth in route win
rate last year. Those are really strong metrics for Jennings.
So I want to take shots on both these guys
across multiple leagues and Ricky Piersol at the Pats point,
if I were to tell you take the name of
it out, there was a player that walked into the
(08:51):
season with hamstring issues and training camp that sent him back.
Then the guy gets shot, then he comes back to
the lineup. He's a former first round pick. One of
the wide receivers is hurt. We don't know what we're
gonna get out of him. Another one's a twenty seven
year old late breakout and it's still one of the
best projected offenses in the NFL, and yet people are
(09:12):
drafting him as a wide receiver three. Would that be
a player that anybody should be in on, of course,
especially talking about he popped it like like Pat said,
those final two games almost a twenty two percent target
chair two point eight four yards per route run. San
Francisco looked at Ricky Pearsall and they said, come on, man,
step up. Can you be the guy that we can
(09:33):
lean on next year? And Ricky Piersoll answered the bell emphatically.
He was the wide receiver seven and wide receiver fourteen
and weekly scoring in those two games. So to your point, though,
getting back to your original question, Seth, I don't think
that Ricky Pearsall is going to play.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
A debo role.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
I don't think they have a debo esque player on
this roster. I think this is gonna be They're gonna
move these guys around, play them in multiple positions. Pearsall
played a ton on the outside. I do think that
he's probably best inside and playing against off coverage. Just
I went back and I watched every single route he
ran in all twenty two last year. The route tree
they asked him to run. At the beginning of the year,
(10:09):
it was a lot of like short area stuff like
whip routes, things like that, where it was just like
not design touches, but the underneath stuff. You saw his
route tree grow as the year progress and I think
that is notable and for a player of his talent,
I think he's going to be more of the possession
guy in this offense and him and him and Jennings
are going to do that, and then they're going to
(10:31):
create explosives in other ways with other guys that Piersall
does still have the athleticism to get downtown, so he
can be the field stretcher in some aspects too. But
I think this all comes back to I want to
draft both these guys, and I'm avoiding Ayuk no telling
when he is a full time player or what we
get out of him. And even in this offense, Previously,
Ayuk has been the single high beater. He's been the
(10:52):
guy that like when they face a lot his own coverage,
which a lot of teams play zone at above fifty
sixty percent of the defensive coverages. Nowadays, you're not seeing
as much single high in the NFL these days, Brandon
Ayuk has been their go to versus single High, versus Zone.
It's been everybody else it was it was the Debo
and the Kittle Show versus Zone over the last two years.
(11:13):
And I wrote that up in the primer continuously. I
think Jennings and Piersol are going to be the answer
for answer for that pat hypothetical.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
You're on the clock.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
You know that probably whoever you don't take of Jennings
and Piersoul. Let's say you have Chris Welsh behind you
with with two picks before your next one? Are you
taking Jennings? Are you taking Piersaw's at Piersoll for you?
Speaker 5 (11:33):
I'm taking Pierson, Okay?
Speaker 6 (11:34):
Can Welsh happy because I think he's a big Jennings
same same.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Same for you, Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna agree. It's
hopefully it works out because last year I did the
thing where I took brand Ayyuk. I tried to handcuff
him with with Ricky Piersoll and just get some upside there.
Didn't get Jennings off the waiver wires, so and I
dropped Piersoll before.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
You know, the breakout happened.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
So stressful, tough situation out there in the Bay area.
Hopefully we get some resolution soon this month. If you
want a chance to win a sign James Cook Buffalo
Bill's jersey for free, Curtis is our friends over at
Pristine Auction dot com, all you have to do is
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(12:16):
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so make sure you ring that bell so you can
know when new videos are up and to claim your prize.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
If you are that lucky winner, it's anyone's guess.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
In Green Bay as the Packers suddenly have one of
the deepest wide receiver rooms around. First round rookie Matthew
Gold out of Texas, slotman Jaden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wicks,
third round rookie and former TCU hornfrog Savian Williams, plus
Christian Watson, who continues to recover from that torn ACL depro.
What's your projected target share for this group and who
(12:48):
are your targeting? If anyone in fantasy drafts this summer.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
This might surprise people.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I want to draft a ton of Romeo Dobbs in
this passing attack, he he pops in a lot of
metrics man like and for Lafleur and his wide receiver
by committee approached, dude, Romeo Dobbs was the only was
the only guy that had above a seventy five percent
route chair last year, he led the team with a
seventy six point seven percent route chair. He led the
(13:16):
team in target share, He led the team in first
read share. He was solid with one point nine zero
yards per route run and amongst eighty five qualifying wide receivers,
Romeo Dobbs also was twenty fifth and first downs per
route run. So the underneath metrics and I know, I'm
talking about a guy that was wide receiver forty seven
and fantasy points per game. So people are like, why
(13:36):
are you excited to draft this guy one? He's basically free.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
You want it?
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Like everybody wants to take shots on Jayan Reid and
Matthew Golden in this passing attack. I'm just not there, dude,
Like I don't think that Matthew Golden is gonna come
in and command this giant target chair like last year
at Texas, Like he wasn't a thing until Basically, Isaiah
Bond was kind of phased out of it, and Umikover's
career eighteen point seven percent target per route run rate
(14:03):
one point eighty five yards per route run outside of
the first round draft capital, we'd be excited about any
of that. And I'm sorry, I'm calling fraudulent. On the
forty yard time, people can go down their own.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I cast a ticket that day, so i'll take you.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Look, I'm not shading your bets. Okay, good for you.
I appreciate the keish in your pocket. But this all
goes back to, like, Romeo Dobbs is going to be
a full time player in this offense. And I haven't
even gotten to the most compelling stat amongst one hundred
and twelve qualifying wide receivers last year, guys, Romeo Dobbs
eleventh in separation score. He posted the second best route
(14:41):
win rate of any wide receiver last year. I think
the breakout's coming for Romeo Dobbs man. And I'm not
telling you he's gonna be a wide receiver too in fantasy.
But if this offense bounces back, Romeo Dobbs is the
guy I want to garner from this passing attack because again,
I've talked about Golden not high on him. Christian Watson,
come on, man like people posted a social media clip
(15:03):
he was running at half speed and some Green Bay
Beat writer was like, look at Christian Watson go. I
was like, come on, he's not making hard cuts. He's
jogging on the field and you're talking about it.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Well, let's hype it up.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
He's not coming back any time soon. Green Bay is
conservative with guys coming off of injuries, coming off in
ACL they draft and another guy and we haven't even
discussed Savion Williams in this wide receiver room and with
Jayden Reed, Like, I think at this point we know
what we're getting when he's on the field. He's a
highly productive and efficient player.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
We know that.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
But again, he hasn't been a full time wide receiver.
He's I don't think he's going to be a full
time wide receiver with this wide receiver by committee approach
that Lafour likes to run. Outside of Dubs and Tucker Kraft,
this only two guys that over had over seventy percent
route per dropback rates. I think that probably comes back
and it's gonna be the same thing again this year.
So Jane Reid sixty nine point three percent route per drop.
(16:00):
That was sixty fourth amongst wide receivers. Unless you run
hot on touchdowns and you score eight to twelve touchdowns,
you just can't live in that world and be anything more,
even in the best ilk as a wide receiver three
and that's what Jayden Reid was twenty twenty four. Wide
receiver twenty six and fantasy points per game. But the
wide receiver forty three and expected fantasy points per game.
(16:23):
I don't even know. And I'm curious Pat's take on this.
We have not got to training camp. As the report
of this, like as far as like clip season and
hype and stuff like that. I think there is a
non zero chance that Green Bay drafted And I'm not
saying Jaden Reid's direct replacement, but I think he's gonna
make noise. Tell me that Sadian Williams isn't a more
(16:44):
souped up Ferrari version of the same exact role that
they asked Jayden Reid to play every single week. He's big,
he's fast. You could use him in the run game,
you can use him all over the field, in manufacture
touches and out of the slot I'm not telling you
that Savion's going to take Jane Reid's job, but if
that we're sitting in week sixteen and that happens, I'm
(17:05):
not gonna be surprised, dude. So I'm curious what Pat
thinks about Savion. But and honestly, this entire wide receiver room,
because I know he's got his finger on the pulse
of it.
Speaker 5 (17:15):
Savion is freaky.
Speaker 6 (17:16):
I mean, he's basically Randy Moss with tennis rackets for hands,
is the thing.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
He is, dary Bill Diebo Samuel Like, come on.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
I mean there, he is an intriguing guy for sure,
and he could cut into some of that gadget work
that Jaden Reid gets the Jets sweeps, the bubble screens,
that sort of stuff, Like a lot of those could
go to savey On Williams Now Like Jayden Reed does
sort of interest me a little bit, just in the
fact that when he is played with Jordan Love, He's
(17:44):
scored a lot of touchdown chemistry in those games, Like
the touchdown rate kind of fell off late last year,
but the Packers were going super run heavy.
Speaker 5 (17:52):
Love just wasn't healthy all year. He had that sprain.
Speaker 6 (17:55):
Mcl early in the season a groin injury was playing
through later in the season. I just don't know if
he was ever one hundred percent. They're gonna throw more.
I just worry that the targets are chopped up so
many ways. I think probably no one ends up with
a twenty percent target share in this offense. Sorry, d Bride,
don't see it for Dubbs. Dubs averaged three and a
(18:15):
half catches in forty six yards per game last year.
Speaker 5 (18:18):
I kind of think that's the ceiling.
Speaker 6 (18:21):
The guy who I know, Matt Lafleur has compared Dantavian
Wicks to Devonte Adams in the past. Wicks is really
good at getting open and really terrible at actually making
the catch, And yeah, I mean he was, although Devonte
Adams did have that same trouble his first couple of
(18:41):
years in the league. So maybe there's a big turnaround
coming for Dantavian Wicks in that category. But man, when
you watch that guy play, it's hard to imagine that
because he is just focus drops galore, and if there's
anyone on him when he's trying to make the catch,
he just can't do it.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
So he's interesting.
Speaker 6 (18:59):
Matthew Golden I think is probably going to be a
big play, boomer bust guy in his rookie year, a
guy who all the film analysts, the Daniel Jeremiahs, the
Dane Brugler is the mel kiper juniors they all loved
and had as a top fifteen overall draft pick. But
the production profile in college has a lot of the
fantasy analysts who do work on college prospects just running
(19:20):
up the red flags right and left. So this is
a really messy situation. I'm not sure there is like
weekly starter upside for any of these guys, quite honestly. Okay,
Tucker Craft, Tucker Craft is the guy I'm drafting in
this group.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Scots, I'm taking on this passing attack. It's dubs and it's.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
Craft past that you can avoid me with all the
rest of this outside of some savon last round Best
Ball targeting Pat.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
If you're on the clock and you want to take
one of these Packers receivers, would it be read over
Golden still for you as it stands?
Speaker 6 (19:53):
Yeah, Jaden Reid, like in Best Ball, he's He's the
guy I've drafted most Offen, and I've still got you know,
probably no more than twelve percent, Jaden Reid on my
best ball teams.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Reid currently wide receiver forty five and ECR so quite
the drop from last year when he was in, you know,
the mid wide receiver twenties, and Golden coming in at
wide receiver fifty two and deepro's Guy Romeo all the
way down at wide receiver sixty two. It doesn't get
much easier in Buffalo either, gentlemen, where the Bills they're
gonna be running out twenty twenty four second rounder Keon
(20:24):
Coleman at the X presumptively Joshua Palmer. He comes over
from the charters, likely gonna man that flanker position, and
then the truth, Khalil Shakira, he's back in the slot.
They also have former Fantasy favorites Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore
and Laviskas Chanalt junior plus seventh round rookie Kane Praether
Adam Maryland in the room. Pat, Where do you see
(20:44):
these high value targets from josh Allen going this season?
Speaker 6 (20:48):
I have some interest in Khalil Shakira is sort of
a high floor, low ceiling guy who can be your
wide receiver four flex type, and I have some interest
in Keon Coleman as a big, big play guy. Probably
isn't going to command a lot of targets. I mean,
key on average nineteen point two yards per catch and
just under ten yards per target in his rookie year.
(21:11):
He just didn't command a lot of targets. He needs
to get more consistent and earn more targets. But you know,
the Bills don't have anything close to an alpha receiver
on their roster, and I don't know if Keon Kleman
is going to become that this year. I do think
there is some target upside. I'm optimistic he can stay
a little healthier and take a big step forward. But yeah,
(21:32):
I'm not sure we get like the theme in Buffalo,
and I think this is kind of a mantra for
their offense. Everybody eats yeah, like they they give the
ball to three different running backs.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Yeah, they work in two tight ends and four or
five different receivers. So if we're looking for like big
breakthrough pass catching upside on the Bills roster, we're probably
not going to get it.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
Khalil secure wide receiver, thirty nine in ecre He finished
at thirty seven overall in points per game last season,
so feels reasonable. Keon Coleman wide receiver fifty four could
have been Lad McConkey if if maybe they they didn't move.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Back that year.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
And then Joshua Palmer wide receiver seventy one debro Where
do you stand on the Buffalo Bill's pass catching room?
And I think Pat summed up very well that it
might just be kind of a mixed bag where he
can start these guys here and there, and outside of secure,
there might not be one guy that you're firing into
your lineup each and every single week.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Yeah, I think that that's probably how this goes.
Speaker 7 (22:32):
Man.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
I think you look at Shakir and I went deep
in his numbers, like he did see his role grow,
Like weeks seven through seventeen, his target share did bump
up from so weeks one through six it was sixteen
point three percent that bumped up to twenty three percent
in week seven through seventeen. He averaged fifty seven receiving
yards per game, had almost a twenty eight percent first
(22:53):
reach year. So like if he were to run hot
and touchdowns in this offense, like during that stretch he
was the wide receiver thirty six some fantasy points per game.
Like if he runs hot with touchdowns, maybe he can
scrape closer to like more of a high end wide
receiver three. But I think that's basically all he's gonna
be because I still think that targets are gonna get
divvied up to a lot of different players. I think
(23:14):
that Buffalo loves because just considering how they run their offense,
and it's good, it's a good NFL thing, but it's
bad for us in fantasy that they really play the
matchups and they look at all of that and the
targets are going to go to a lot of different places,
and especially like the part that like, if you've been
playing DFS over the last few years, you're playing like
you're betting touchdowns and stuff whatever. It's one of the
(23:36):
maddening things about Buffalo. When they get into the red zone,
they do all kinds of different stuff. They run trick plays,
they were in Gadget stuff, pop passes, it's Josh Allen,
it's the running backs, it's it's the receivers, it's the
tight end four on the freaking dep part, And you're like,
who is that, oh, dear lord, And that's what happens
in Buffalo. Now, it's great for them. They score a
(23:56):
crap ton of points. It's just not very conducive to
a lot of fantasy upside. But so Shakier's fine where
he goes. I think he's a decent wide receiver three,
maybe a little bit of more meat on the bone.
I'm out on Keon Coleman just looking at his role
in this offense. I think that the Bills they drafted
Keon Coleman to be their man coverage beater last year.
(24:16):
Over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills have faced
the third most and the highest man coverage rate in
the entire all. And you look at what Keon Coleman
did last year. If you look at versus man coverage,
he had a twenty seven percent target per route run
rate versus man. Now against zone do that fell off
table fourteen percent. Nobody's feed their families in fantasyland with
(24:40):
a fourteen percent target per route run rate. And the
thing that I'll worry about with Keon Coleman is he
wasn't amazing at beating man coverage last year. He wasn't terrible,
especially with the rookie, But like amongst seventy one qualifying
wide receivers, thirty seventh in separation, forty fourth route win rate.
Maybe he grows in that aspect in his second season,
but to that, I think this is exactly why they
(25:02):
went out and they signed Joshua Palmer to play this
man coverage beating role because Palmer underneath the surface has
been awesome at it. Last year amongst all wide receivers,
he was fifth in route win rate and separation against
man coverage. So I think Palmer is gonna become the
guy that they go to when they face man coverage.
(25:25):
And you're gonna see me writing it up in the primer.
If they're gonna face a lot of man coverage that week,
I think it's gonna be a josh Palmer week. So
I think, again, this is gonna be very matchup dependent.
And there's nobody in this passing attack that I'm really
high on. I could just tell you I don't want
to draft Kean Coleman. I don't see the upside for
him that he's gonna be a splash week guy, and
I think Palmer could take his role in this offense.
(25:46):
Shakira is fine where he goes. But again where's the
upside unless he just runs incredibly hot with touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Like, could that happen?
Speaker 3 (25:54):
It's possible, But do all the numbers and stuff leave
me to want to draft a lot of Khalil Shakir. No,
I'm not gonna be heavy on him. I'm just gonna
mix him in in best ball formats.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
I'll tell you what.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
The one thing I kept doing last season was late
in that playoff stretch. I just kept betting the Keon
Coleman over one and a half receptions. I hope they
don't change that line and they just throw that out
week one, because I think I'm going right back to it.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
Baby.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
It's it's not fun. It's not like a you know,
a high ceiling or anything like that. But it's a
good little sweat there.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
I was bet dude.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
I was cashing Khalil Shakir overs almost the entire back
half of the season. I think, like you go to
betting pros and you could see, like, what was your
best thing to do? I think I was like seventy percent
on Khalil Shakir overs last year.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
It was nice.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
Some degenerate stuff right there.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Still debating these wide receivers will be taking questions all
week on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy pros
Ericson and Tom Strock and talk Bestball Mondays at for Eastern.
Myself and Debro answer your questions on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
at to Eastern, and then we also have some more
Q and a's coming your ways on Thursdays and Fridays
(27:04):
at five Eastern. Gives a follow and ask questions live
on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy Pros. Let's
head to Pat's Neck of the Woods where the Chicago
Bears are all in on making Caleb Williams work under
center with head coach Ben Johnson now running the show
DJ Moore.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
He's back.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
He's broken one thousand yards four times in his career,
just fell short of that mark a season ago in
Williams rookie year Roma Doonsday. He also returns after seeing
one hundred and one targets as a.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
Rookie and Missouri product.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Luther Burden the third he enters the fray after being
selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Debro,
what is the target pecking order in your eyes here
in Chai toown and who are you circling if anyone
in fancy drafts.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
This is an utter, an absolute mess, dude. Like, I
just at first of all, I want to give a high,
high level look at this. So with all of the
Ben Johnson's team, we're looking at an offense that we
haven't even seen Caleb Williams support one really good fantasy
option yet in his career, and now all of a sudden,
(28:09):
we think he's gonna support what three, four, five options?
Like everybody's like, oh, I need to draft Holston Lovelan,
Oh I need to draft Luther Burdon, Oh DJ Moore,
Oh maybe it's roma doonsay, Like I need to see
Caleb Williams prove that he could support one really good
fantasy option, much less three to four. Like if that happens,
(28:31):
this is has to be like a top three to
five offense. And I just don't know if that happens
for Chicago. So I'm lower like on all of these
options just in general, like because all of them have warts. Man,
Like I think, if I'm gonna draft anybody out of
this this passing attack, it's probably gonna be Dj Moore
And you could throw all of the per route efficiency
(28:52):
stuff like as far as yards per route run, first
downs per route run, throw it all in the garbage
can because Caleb Williams was just god awful last year.
It was terrible, So that tanked the efficiency numbers on
a per route basis for basically everybody inside of this
passing attack. But the one thing that didn't change for
Dj Moore is he didn't lose his ability or didn't
go away his ability to earn targets and volume. I mean,
(29:14):
the guy was still thirteenth in target chair and tenth
and first read year in this offense. So if I'm
going to make a bet on volume out of this
offense and where volume goes, it's Dj Moore. I think
he's fine at his price. Tag Rome is a guy
I loved as a prospect.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
But the problem is.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
I cannot analytically, even outside of all of the bad
things that Caleb Williams put this offense through and put
up on film last year, I can't analytically make the
case even in the deeper metrics, for Romadunza and me
to be really high on him, despite even if I
had faith in Caleb Williams this year, Like if you
(29:51):
filter out and if you only accounted for catchable targets,
and you exclude screens in a Dounzay's sample from last year,
that would still only make him sixty first in yards
per route run first downs out run. He's seventy eighth
in separation, fifty fourth in route win rate. Now I
bring up those two metrics because that's agnostic. He's getting
(30:12):
open on his routes, or he's not getting open his routes.
That's agnostic a bad quarterback player good quarterback play. And
he was still outside the top fifty wide receivers in
both of those metrics. So it's like, how do I
get really high or over the moon on Romatuon say,
I loved him as a prospect, but it didn't happen,
and I don't know if it happens this year. And
Luther Burdon, you just count me out. On the archetype
of this player, I mean, he is a manufactured touch
(30:34):
guy through and through and through. He missed a lot
of the offseason so far with injuries. I don't know
when we're going to see him in camp. He's been
a manufactured touch guy, and just the archetype of that
wide receiver has not played out really well in the NFL.
I'll point everybody to Malachai Corley year last year. I'll
point everybody to Elijah Moore the year before, Andy Isabella
(30:55):
Rondell Moore. Have any of these guys that have been
highly manufactured touch guys in college, not guys that have
been asked to go out and run and just line
up and route dudes up. They haven't panned out in
the NFL. I would love it, and I hope Luther
Burden proves me wrong, but I just I don't. I
(31:16):
don't see him like it's not like even at his cost,
it's just not somebody I want to invest in when
we're talking about three to four options that are diluting
the target share and we don't know like this could
be one of those offense much like a lafor offense
that's matchup based or Buffalo where it's like every single
week they're utilizing a different guy based off of what
defense they're facing. And the holes that Ben Johnson season
(31:38):
that and that's gonna be maddening. People are like, do
I start him?
Speaker 1 (31:42):
Do I not?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
Do I start him doing not?
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (31:43):
I didn't start him and he blew up?
Speaker 5 (31:45):
Oh God? What do I do?
Speaker 4 (31:47):
And for me.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
I'm just like, nah, I'm just avoiding this headache outside
of maybe some shots on DJ Moore.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Okay, yeah, and Burden, you know, just a tough twenty
twenty four season fourm his production nearly cut in half
from a great twenty twenty three of Missouri. Obviously, Brady
Cook kind of in and out of the lineup, weird
offensive scheme down there on the SEC. But still nonetheless
I'm out on Burden as well. But I know you're
you were high on Roma doonsay as a prospect and
(32:12):
wide receiver thirty seven. That's a high end wide receiver
for price tag right now? That that feels right right
despite all the advanced analytics that the Debro is rightfully
throwing at us.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
It just makes me want to gravitate towards him.
Speaker 6 (32:25):
What say you, Yeah, I'm a little above ADP and
ECR on him, Seth.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
The funny thing is someone is.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
Always higher on me if I get into an analyst
draft with like they never get him in those. But
I think there's a chance I might get him in
a couple of home league drafts because I don't think
the public at large is quite as high on on
Romo Dunesay and maybe fantasy analysts are getting too hung
up on the draft capitol. Yeah, I guess maybe my
biggest concern is that O doonesay Deebro mentioned it like
(32:55):
the separation numbers were not great, and I don't think
elite separation is really what Dunza is all about. He's
a guy who can make like and we saw this
when he was playing at Washington. He would be wearing
a defender like a well tarned Italian suit. Michael Pennix
didn't care. He was shoehorning it in and putting it,
(33:16):
you know, in the one spot where the defender couldn't
get it and o'doonsay could get it, and o'doonsay came
down with the catch every time. I mean, he was
amazing at contested catches at Washington. And I just don't
know if Caleb Williams is that kind of He might
be more of a see it, throw it kind of
quarterback for a timing guy. So I don't know if
(33:36):
it is a love connection between those two or at
least not yet. I mean, they seem to have a
really good rapport, like we saw it on Hard Knocks
last year. I see it with some of like the
local news coverage of Bears practices. Roman and Caleb like
each other. I just don't know how well their games
meshed together yet. Kind of the same thing with dj Moore,
Like it was weird. And I have a great respect
(33:58):
for DJ Moore. I think he's wonderful player. I'm slightly
below ADP and ECR on him because his body language
last year was terrible.
Speaker 5 (34:08):
Like, I felt like.
Speaker 6 (34:08):
DJ Moore was unhappy all year, and I don't know
if it was he and Caleb didn't really click, or
if it was just the coaching staff that he kind
of hated. Tough look, Yeah, I mean it very well
could have been. He was just unhappy with the system
he was in. So you know, I'm not like way
(34:29):
below ECR or ADP, but I'm a little below on
him and the guy I'm way out in front of
ECR and ADP on his Luther Burden.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Don't do it for me, no.
Speaker 5 (34:38):
Because he's a cheap dart thrower.
Speaker 6 (34:41):
I've got him at wide receiver fifty right now, and
everyone else has him at wide receiver seventy four. And
I think people are looking for this uh to use
this hamstring injury as an excuse to write off Luthor
Burden for the entire season, in which case great, Like
I'll swoop in and grab Luthor Burden in the final run,
because what if he is Ben Johnson's version of am
Ross Saint Brown in this offense And it's a plausible
(35:03):
what if, Because if Luther Burden had come out after
his sophomore year at Missouri where he lit the sec
on fire as a nineteen year old, like, I mean,
he was crazy and he's so good after the catch.
He has those Alan Iverson moves where he just like
makes the one cut and leaves a defender grasping it air.
(35:23):
So I'm excited about what he could potentially do. I
know he had a bad junior year. You mentioned it,
like Brady Cook wasn't healthy really all season and things
just didn't click. But I don't know, man, I do
I get it. I think Burden is interesting. The only
thing is, like, if they use Comet and Loveland together
(35:45):
in a lot of twelve personnel, then that probably keeps
Luthor Burden off the field too much for him have
any sort of impacts.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
That's where I'm at, Pat, Like, I think they could
use a lot of twelve personnel with those tight ends,
and then it's gonna limit it, Like, is burden just
the Jaden Reid of Chicago?
Speaker 6 (36:00):
Yeah, but but in fairness, at the price that Burden
is going at right now, that's fair. You can draft him,
drop him in week three, No harm, no foul.
Speaker 4 (36:10):
I don't disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
And I'm today years old to realize that people are
still ranking Dj Moore as the top twenty four wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
So maybe I'm not going to get much of him
and drafts either.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Yeah, Wide receiver nineteen in ECR. Yeah, Wide receiver ECR.
So I was just about to say, too, it seems
like you're most in on more. I'm probably most in
on more and then paths more in on burden. So
not the most helpful analysis maybe, but maybe something we're
all just kind of avoiding.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
And you know, maybe it's one.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
Of those situations, Pat where you buy the cake and
not be icing right, you buy Caleb Williams.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
Well, maybe, but at the same time, an injury could
create value.
Speaker 5 (36:50):
True in this wide receiver cor like one of.
Speaker 6 (36:53):
These guys get hurt, gets hurt, and maybe all of
a sudden, the other two become significantly more valuable.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
Okay, let's go ahead.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Let's round out the program with the Super Bowl runner ups,
the Kansas City Chiefs. Rashid Rice, of course, could be
facing league disciplinary action after being sentenced to five years
probation thirty days in jail to serve over the course
of that parole. That's due to his role in that
six car crash back in Dallas back in twenty twenty four.
(37:21):
Xavier Worthy was a league winner as a rookie after
Rice went down with the torn acl last season. Of course,
we also have Marque's Hollywood Brown fourth round pick, Jalen
Royals from Utah State, Juju Smith, Schuster, and Sky Moore
still hanging around in the mix as well.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Fits.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
Do you have a feeling on how the targets could
shake out and where the fantasy points go with the
Chiefs this season.
Speaker 6 (37:43):
Yeah, I'm a little worried that Worthy tops out at
like twenty percent this year, although I think there could
be some higher value targets. He's probably going to be
running deeper routes with Rashie back, or at least back
for twelve or ten games or whatever it is that
he actually plays. Hollywood is going to be Boomer bost
a couple big plays or whatever. But he is going
(38:03):
to draw targets. Here's the thing. Like, I've been below
consensus on Rashie Rice all off season, and I know,
like the enthusiasm has just been getting crazy from and
with some really smart people like I know, you know,
friend of the Show Ryan Heath and Fantasy Points really
likes him. I think Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points also
likes him. My buddy Evan Silva from Established the Run
(38:25):
before the suspension news, I think Evan had Rashie Rice
at thirteenth overall in his rankings. Here's why I am
not at all.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
I thought I was high wide receiver thirteen before the
suspension news.
Speaker 6 (38:37):
But yeah, I mean people are looking at what Rashid
did in his rookie year and then early last season.
Well early last season, Worthy was not a factor. He
was not fully integrated into this offense. Yet in the
three games where Rashie Rice was going nuts before he
got hurt in Week four, Worthy had drawn eleven targets
in those first three games. Then towards the end of
the season with Rashie out, if you take the last
(38:59):
eight games including the playoffs, and excluding Week eighteen, when
Worthy played I think one snap in Week eighteen, they
just sat their starters. Worthy at at least five catches
in all of those games, fifty catches total over those
eight games, pacing for one hundred catch season. Now, I
don't expect Worthy to have one hundred catch season this
year with Rice back, But when Rice was killing it
(39:21):
as a rookie like Marquez Valdez, Scantling started ten games
for the Chiefs, Justin Watson started a sky Moore started
eight games. Their target shares that year. MVS was at
a seven percent target share, sky Moore was at six
point three percent. Justin Watson actually the highest target share
of those three guys at eight point eight percent. Xavier
(39:45):
Worthy is going to command even if he is not
in a role similar to the one vacated by Rashid
Rice last year post injury. Worthy is going to command
targets even if he's running his routes further downfield at
a much higher rate than any those bombs that Rice
was sharing targets with in twenty twenty three. Sorry, I'll
(40:06):
due respect not calling those guys bombs, but let's just
say they.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
Were fantasy bombs.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
Below replacement level, solid.
Speaker 4 (40:13):
NFL players, not fantasy producers.
Speaker 6 (40:16):
Yes, And so I think even Hollywood Brown is going
to have higher than an eight point eight percent target
share in this offense. So Rice just does not have
the same path to targets that he had early last
year or.
Speaker 5 (40:31):
In twenty twenty three when he was sensational.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
Rice wide receiver twenty one in ACR, currently Worthy wide
receiver thirty one, Hollywood Brown wide receiver fifty eight. Derek,
could I make the case that maybe I just miss
out on all these guys because it's such a crowd
room and just go with Travis kelce Ma even the
seventh eighth round this year, you.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
Could, And I don't disagree with people taking that path.
I mean, for me, this wide receiver room is pretty
easy to me. I'm gonna take shots on Rice when
he falls in drafts. I'm still in on the talent
because I think when he comes back, we know the
role that he's going to play. And I don't I
think we're people like looking at this offense, in this
(41:10):
offense like I've honestly taken a one to eighty approach
on this, Like I've really come around to.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
This offense in the sense of.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
Beginning of the off season, I'm like, how is this
all going to work? But I don't know if Patrick
Mahomes gets the deep ball juice back man, Like he's
been a bottom ten quarterback for the last two years
at throwing the deep ball, So I don't know if
that comes back. And if it does, okay, fine, then
then light all my analysis on fire here. But if
(41:40):
it doesn't, and we keep getting this dink and dunk
kind of offense, and they keep doing the dink and
dunk offense with Rashie Rice whenever he comes back. Now
they have Brishard Smith out of the backfield, Travis Kelcey
and stuff, the dank and dunk go offense can be
better than what it was last year. And if Pachecko's
running the ball better, so like that can they can
run back this same game plan but be much more
(42:01):
effective considering the parts of pieces that they have in
this passing attack versus last year. And so I look
at this passing attack and I'm like, yeah, well, was
she Rice gets back? I want all the was she Rice?
Extremely high on him, like I bumped him down. But
we're all kind of projecting, We're we're guessing on how
long that suspension is. A lot of people said like
six games. I think it's gonna be two to four games.
(42:22):
If it's two games, his adp literally shouldn't jump down
very much, if at all. Like I've met wide receiver
twenty two right now, and I think with Rice, like
i've Pat, I know you're you're chomping in the bit.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
Go ahead and tell me what you think about this.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Would be going to go running through that before I
give my RISDA tribe here.
Speaker 6 (42:44):
Can you blame Patrick Mahomes for not wanting to throw
deep to mvs and Justin Watson.
Speaker 5 (42:49):
That's my thing.
Speaker 6 (42:50):
Now he's going to be throwing deep to Xavier Worthy
in Hollywood Brown And it's like, and I know coach
speak is coach speak, but Andy Reid does keep talking
about wanting to to uh get more verticality into this
passing game this year.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
No, and my problem with Mahomes, it's not the fact
that he's not throwing deep. It's the fact that when
he's thrown deep, he's been terrible at it. Like he's
been bottom ten in CPOE bottom ten and catchable target rate.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
So that's too bad.
Speaker 5 (43:16):
I'm not gonna say.
Speaker 6 (43:17):
I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes can't throw the deep ball.
Speaker 4 (43:20):
Come on, but the numbers say it. You don't have
to say it, Patty.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
The numbers, but those numbers are agnostic of the wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (43:28):
Those are not.
Speaker 3 (43:29):
Those are catchable targets are not. That is not related
to guys getting open being good receivers are bad receivers.
Speaker 4 (43:36):
That is pat that that is late.
Speaker 6 (43:38):
Because MVS always brings in catchable targets.
Speaker 4 (43:40):
I'm not saying that catches it. I'm not doing that
at all.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
But what I am saying is like Patrick Malmes has
not been good at the deep ball, and so I
think we're gonna go back to It's gonna be a
lot of checkdowns, a lot of guys asked to create
something after the catch.
Speaker 4 (43:55):
And so Rice I know his role.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
He's gonna get fed a ton of target because that's
what we saw last year, Like he had a thirty
one point five percent target chair before he went out
with injury, three point six yards per route run, forty
one point two percent first read chair. Like all of
these numbers are elite usage. Now maybe some of that
(44:17):
changes and we we nerve some of that. So he
gets a twenty seven percent target chare his yards per
route run drops into the high twos. Those are still
extremely good numbers. So Rice, I still want to be
in on at cost. You can just count me out
on Hollywood Brown. No, no, no, heck no, there's just
no way. Like, I don't trust him to stay healthy
(44:39):
through the entirety of a season. I hope that he can,
but I can't see it at this point in his
career because it's just time after time after time. This
is what happens with Hollywood Brown. And even when he
was healthy in the playoffs, dude, like he was not producing.
Like in the postseason he had a fifteen percent target chair,
he had zero point sixty seven yards per route run.
(45:00):
He had point zero four zero first downs per up
Like that is basically non existent. So I'm not worried
about Hollywood Brown and Ti Xavier Worthy. I think he's
going to go back to being the outside guy and
be in the field stretcher and mahomes as better as
a deep all passer.
Speaker 4 (45:15):
That's fine.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
But the thing with Worthy is we all lived in
like we talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when he
played the Rashi Rice role, and I'll keep going back
to this. He had a twenty five point six percent
design target rate. His AT dropped from twelve point one
to six point three. Those numbers mirror Rashi Rice almost.
(45:36):
I mean, it's a Spider Man meme man. And you
look at what did Worthy do before he got that usage.
Like we all talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when
when Worthy was the wide receiver twenty one and fantasy
points per game in that role. I'm also old enough
to remember in weeks one through twelve when he was
the wide receiver fifty one in fantasy points per game
and only commanding a thirteen point nine percent target chare
(45:59):
when he was only nine separation one hundred and eleventh
in route win rate amongst one hundred and twenty four
wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (46:06):
In that time.
Speaker 3 (46:07):
So I'm burying Worthy. I don't really want to draft him.
He's going to get a bump with Rice is out.
Rice is about the only guy out of this passing
attack that I want, outside of some late best ball
shots on Jalen Royals, because if Hollywood Brown can't stay healthy,
Jalvin Royles is going to crack the top the starting
three wide receivers, and I love Jalen Royals as a prospect.
(46:28):
I hate that he went to Kansas City, but his
pathway not for this season, could be cleared up really
quickly after this year as far as what he could
get as far as targets coming up in next season.
And I think he's viable as a last round picking
best ball right now, because if Hollywood can't stay healthy,
if Rice gets the longer suspension, if Worthy can't be
(46:50):
the guy that we all want him to be, some
roads might lead back to Jalen Royals.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
It's an interesting debate. Rashid, Rice Xavier Worthy. Let us
know down in the common months below your thoughts on
this wide receiver room and all the wide receiver rooms
we touched on today, and that will do it for
us on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast, we hope
we helped you solve a couple of these depth chart dilemmas.
Thanks so much for watching. As always, the best freeway
(47:16):
support us. Give this video a thumbs up if you
enjoy us type of content. Also make sure you're subscribing
if you're new for Pat Fitzmor's and Derek Brown.
Speaker 2 (47:23):
I'm seth Wilcock take care of y'all.
Speaker 7 (47:25):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify.
Speaker 2 (47:38):
Follow us on x.
Speaker 7 (47:39):
Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our
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Speaker 6 (48:06):
Movie
All right, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
We've got part two of depth chart Dilemmas on deck
for you today, breaking down the murkiest wide receiver rooms
from around the NFL. In part one, we did cover
running backs, so make sure you go back check out
that episode if you haven't already. I'm your host Seth Wilcock,
and today I'm joined by the boys, Pat fitz Morris
(00:23):
and Derek Brown. Debro As noted, it's all about wide
receivers in this particular program. Really the bread of the
fantasy football sandwich, if you would, meaning it's tough to
win without good ones. Is that a fair analogy? And
what's your one on one a sandwiches?
Speaker 2 (00:37):
My friend?
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Oh, I think I'm more on the meat side of that.
And the one on one of sandwiches hot dog?
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Right?
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Oh no, come on.
Speaker 4 (00:48):
In there, baby, sandwich. Just leave it with that and
I'll walk away.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Pat, how are you?
Speaker 1 (00:54):
And do you have any sandwich or bread related takes to.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Get out of the way at the top here?
Speaker 5 (00:59):
Oh? Man?
Speaker 6 (01:00):
And doing well? And I'm off carbs right now, so
now you're just making Yeah, just another couple of weeks,
but man, you're making me think of how much I
could go for an Italian sub right now? And uh,
you know the one O two of sandwiches. Maybe a
good Ruben. I do like me a good ruben.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I agree.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
I agree that the crowd on the sandwich is always
good for me. Out here and in Western we also
puts on the sandwich. Have you tried a Primanny brother sandwich,
either of you guys with the slaw right on?
Speaker 6 (01:32):
I have not been saying slaw and fries right. Yes,
they put it all right on the sub.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (01:37):
I have to get to Primancy Brothers in Pittsburgh. That
is a life goal that I have yet to fulfill.
Speaker 4 (01:42):
Come on down, never never, kroud guy. Sorry, I'm not sorry.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I think we also got into this foundation.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Forget it all.
Speaker 6 (01:51):
I p as toss them all in the same You'll
get those adult in one of these days.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Man, And now the role but ketchup.
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Okay, I'm not saying to put it on your freaking eggs,
and I'm not saying to put it on steak.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
There ain't unrolled with ketchup.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
No, not a sandwich. That's that's like a blow is okay?
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Come on, okay, okay, all right, well, we've got a
breakdown of the five messiest wide receiver rooms coming your
way today, and as always before we jump in. If
you want more fans football takes, if you want more
sandwich and food takes, make sure you're tuning in here
on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or listening on the
podcast feed on the Reggie. Thank you so much for
the poor easiest freeway supporters. Give this video a thumbs up.
(02:30):
If you do, just have a content make sure you're
subscribing if you're new. Let's go ahead and start boys
in the Bay Area, where things got a lot more
complicated recently. We all expected Brandon Au to land on
the pup to start camp after coming off that torn
acl last season. However, we now have second year wide
receiver Ricky Piersoll, a popular breakout candidate, also placed on
(02:52):
the pup to start training camp with a hamstring injury.
And then there's Juwan Jennings, who wants a new deal
or to be traded from the four forty nine ers
after career seventy seven catch nearly a thousand yard season
six touchdowns scored in twenty twenty four for him, pat
what looked like in appealing trio mid round targets. Now
peers be a potential disaster. How do you sort it out?
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Yeah, everyone's either unhappy or hurt seth. And when they
are healthy, they're gonna be sharing targets with George Kittle
and Christian McCaffrey. So this is a messy room without question.
And it seems like Juwan Jennings is the guy gendering
some serious heat out in the Twitter streets. Like every year,
there are a few players who inspire the Fantasy analyst
crusades where everyone is grabbing a sword and shield and
(03:37):
waiting into battle on one side of the other for
one player or a couple players, And Juwan Jennings is
one of those guys this year. Now, personally, I don't
think he's a bad buy at his current price. His
ADP is wide receiver thirty nine. I think is ECR
is one spot higher. Pretty modest investment for a guy
who did pop last year. When given an opportunity. You know,
(04:00):
some people say, well, if he didn't have the one
hundred and seventy five yard three touchdown game, his numbers
wouldn't look so good. But Jennings, he was not bad
at like checking in with a little something every week.
I think there were only five games where he finished
with under fifty receiving yards. I do have to admit, though, Seth,
I am a little skeptical about an age twenty seven
(04:20):
breakout from a former seventh round draft pick who unquestionably
benefited from injuries to other San Francisco wide receivers. We
had Ricky Pearsov getting shot and missing time early in
the season. We had Brandon Ayuk with a major knee
injury missing time later in the season. Jennings averaged two
point twenty six yards per ut run last year, which
is great, but in his other three seasons he was
(04:42):
under one point four to zero yards per rout run,
which is pretty terrible. Even with the big yards per
route run number, last season, he's up to one point
six to two for his career now. Like I know,
Ricky Piersoll only averaged one point three one yards per
rout run last season. Not a good number, but Piersal
did miss a lot of time in the season after
being shot, probably needed some time to sort of reintegrate
(05:04):
himself into the offense. Didn't play until Week seven, didn't
really pop until the last two games, but he popped
in a big way. Eight catches one hundred and forty
one yards one touchdown in week seventeen, six for sixty
nine in a touchdown in Week eighteen. He's the guy
I'm slightly more interested in. I think there's more upside
from this former first rounder who's pretty athletic than there
(05:27):
is from Jennings, And I'm just not real interested in.
Ayuku's probably gonna open the regular season on pop, missed
the first six weeks, and probably need some time to
get in after that. Like just a guy, You're probably
not comfortably starting until week ten at the earliest.
Speaker 5 (05:43):
No, thanks, de Bro.
Speaker 1 (05:45):
This is almost kind of a fantasy philosophy question in
a way, because let's throw Ayuk out for a second.
Let's assume Jawan Jennings starts the season as the team's
X receiver. Ricky Piersoll probably more manned the flanker in
two wide receiver sets in the slot in three wider sets,
kind of that Deebo Samuel s frule. If you would, so,
which do you prefer Jennings at the X at wide
(06:06):
receiver thirty eight in ECR or pearsaw opens on the
pup potentially in that Samuel role wide receiver forty six
in ECR, I use two spots behind him at forty eight.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
I'm taking shots on both Pearsol and Jennings, Okay, I
think straight up, I mean it just some of this
kind of depends on what we don't know right now
with Pearsol's hamstring injury, assuming because he could start the
camp on the pup and come off at any time,
so like this could be by the time that people
are listening to this, because this could be a non factor,
like he could be practicing in full and all of
(06:37):
that is in the rear view. So for me, I'm
not I'm not going to bump down Pearsall too much
because of the hamstring injury because there's a lot of
unknown there, like severity how long it's going to keep
him out, and I think that's going to affect his
ADP and his draft stock and his outlook. So kind
of approaching this with a glass half full approach, like
saying Pearsaw comes back in more short order. I want
(07:00):
shots on Jennings am Piersol, Like I think both of
them are fantastic values where they're going in that wide
receiver three range, and I've got both them ranked like
right next to each other basically in the wide receiver
three range, and I want to take shots on both
of them, like Jennings. To Pat's point, Jennings was fantastic
last year and not including in this sample that I'm
about to discuss, This isn't including that monster blow up game,
(07:23):
and so stating that he was still really freaking good.
So weeks ten through eighteen, without Brandon Ayuk in the lineup,
you had Jennings commanding a twenty five point one percent
target chare, averaging sixty three point four receiving yards per game,
two point two yards per route run, a thirty two
point seven percent first reach cheer, and point one pin
one three first downs per route run. To give people context,
(07:45):
if he had kept up that that pace the entirety
of the season amongst all wide receivers, of these fifty targets,
he would ranked tenth, twenty third, twenty second, eleventh, and
fourteenth in those categories. And this is without the blow
up game, and he was havingveraging fourteen point one PPR
points per game in that process. That would have made
him the wide receiver twenty six on the season. So
(08:08):
at this price tag, it's free money for Juwan Jennings.
And I really like Ricky Piersoll, Like this guy comes
to the one hundred foot view. I think the entire
San Francisco offense is under price this offseason because people
don't know what to do with it. It is an ambiguous
situation and play. They're like, can the twenty seven year
old breakout keep it up? I mean, he's got a
(08:29):
lot in his bag that says that he probably can
keep it up. Even if you just look at per
route metrics thirty fourth in separation, fourteenth in route win
rate last year. Those are really strong metrics for Jennings.
So I want to take shots on both these guys
across multiple leagues and Ricky Piersol at the Pats point,
if I were to tell you take the name of
it out, there was a player that walked into the
(08:51):
season with hamstring issues and training camp that sent him back.
Then the guy gets shot, then he comes back to
the lineup. He's a former first round pick. One of
the wide receivers is hurt. We don't know what we're
gonna get out of him. Another one's a twenty seven
year old late breakout and it's still one of the
best projected offenses in the NFL, and yet people are
(09:12):
drafting him as a wide receiver three. Would that be
a player that anybody should be in on, of course,
especially talking about he popped it like like Pat said,
those final two games almost a twenty two percent target
chair two point eight four yards per route run. San
Francisco looked at Ricky Pearsall and they said, come on, man,
step up. Can you be the guy that we can
(09:33):
lean on next year? And Ricky Piersoll answered the bell emphatically.
He was the wide receiver seven and wide receiver fourteen
and weekly scoring in those two games. So to your point, though,
getting back to your original question, Seth, I don't think
that Ricky Pearsall is going to play.
Speaker 4 (09:47):
A debo role.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
I don't think they have a debo esque player on
this roster. I think this is gonna be They're gonna
move these guys around, play them in multiple positions. Pearsall
played a ton on the outside. I do think that
he's probably best inside and playing against off coverage. Just
I went back and I watched every single route he
ran in all twenty two last year. The route tree
they asked him to run. At the beginning of the year,
(10:09):
it was a lot of like short area stuff like
whip routes, things like that, where it was just like
not design touches, but the underneath stuff. You saw his
route tree grow as the year progress and I think
that is notable and for a player of his talent,
I think he's going to be more of the possession
guy in this offense and him and him and Jennings
are going to do that, and then they're going to
(10:31):
create explosives in other ways with other guys that Piersall
does still have the athleticism to get downtown, so he
can be the field stretcher in some aspects too. But
I think this all comes back to I want to
draft both these guys, and I'm avoiding Ayuk no telling
when he is a full time player or what we
get out of him. And even in this offense, Previously,
Ayuk has been the single high beater. He's been the
(10:52):
guy that like when they face a lot his own coverage,
which a lot of teams play zone at above fifty
sixty percent of the defensive coverages. Nowadays, you're not seeing
as much single high in the NFL these days, Brandon
Ayuk has been their go to versus single High, versus Zone.
It's been everybody else it was it was the Debo
and the Kittle Show versus Zone over the last two years.
(11:13):
And I wrote that up in the primer continuously. I
think Jennings and Piersol are going to be the answer
for answer for that pat hypothetical.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
You're on the clock.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
You know that probably whoever you don't take of Jennings
and Piersoul. Let's say you have Chris Welsh behind you
with with two picks before your next one? Are you
taking Jennings? Are you taking Piersaw's at Piersoll for you?
Speaker 5 (11:33):
I'm taking Pierson, Okay?
Speaker 6 (11:34):
Can Welsh happy because I think he's a big Jennings
same same.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Same for you, Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna agree. It's
hopefully it works out because last year I did the
thing where I took brand Ayyuk. I tried to handcuff
him with with Ricky Piersoll and just get some upside there.
Didn't get Jennings off the waiver wires, so and I
dropped Piersoll before.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
You know, the breakout happened.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
So stressful, tough situation out there in the Bay area.
Hopefully we get some resolution soon this month. If you
want a chance to win a sign James Cook Buffalo
Bill's jersey for free, Curtis is our friends over at
Pristine Auction dot com, all you have to do is
subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop
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(12:16):
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so make sure you ring that bell so you can
know when new videos are up and to claim your prize.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
If you are that lucky winner, it's anyone's guess.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
In Green Bay as the Packers suddenly have one of
the deepest wide receiver rooms around. First round rookie Matthew
Gold out of Texas, slotman Jaden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wicks,
third round rookie and former TCU hornfrog Savian Williams, plus
Christian Watson, who continues to recover from that torn ACL depro.
What's your projected target share for this group and who
(12:48):
are your targeting? If anyone in fantasy drafts this summer.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
This might surprise people.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I want to draft a ton of Romeo Dobbs in
this passing attack, he he pops in a lot of
metrics man like and for Lafleur and his wide receiver
by committee approached, dude, Romeo Dobbs was the only was
the only guy that had above a seventy five percent
route chair last year, he led the team with a
seventy six point seven percent route chair. He led the
(13:16):
team in target share, He led the team in first
read share. He was solid with one point nine zero
yards per route run and amongst eighty five qualifying wide receivers,
Romeo Dobbs also was twenty fifth and first downs per
route run. So the underneath metrics and I know, I'm
talking about a guy that was wide receiver forty seven
and fantasy points per game. So people are like, why
(13:36):
are you excited to draft this guy one? He's basically free.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
You want it?
Speaker 3 (13:41):
Like everybody wants to take shots on Jayan Reid and
Matthew Golden in this passing attack. I'm just not there, dude,
Like I don't think that Matthew Golden is gonna come
in and command this giant target chair like last year
at Texas, Like he wasn't a thing until Basically, Isaiah
Bond was kind of phased out of it, and Umikover's
career eighteen point seven percent target per route run rate
(14:03):
one point eighty five yards per route run outside of
the first round draft capital, we'd be excited about any
of that. And I'm sorry, I'm calling fraudulent. On the
forty yard time, people can go down their own.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
I cast a ticket that day, so i'll take you.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
Look, I'm not shading your bets. Okay, good for you.
I appreciate the keish in your pocket. But this all
goes back to, like, Romeo Dobbs is going to be
a full time player in this offense. And I haven't
even gotten to the most compelling stat amongst one hundred
and twelve qualifying wide receivers last year, guys, Romeo Dobbs
eleventh in separation score. He posted the second best route
(14:41):
win rate of any wide receiver last year. I think
the breakout's coming for Romeo Dobbs man. And I'm not
telling you he's gonna be a wide receiver too in fantasy.
But if this offense bounces back, Romeo Dobbs is the
guy I want to garner from this passing attack because again,
I've talked about Golden not high on him. Christian Watson,
come on, man like people posted a social media clip
(15:03):
he was running at half speed and some Green Bay
Beat writer was like, look at Christian Watson go. I
was like, come on, he's not making hard cuts. He's
jogging on the field and you're talking about it.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Well, let's hype it up.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
He's not coming back any time soon. Green Bay is
conservative with guys coming off of injuries, coming off in
ACL they draft and another guy and we haven't even
discussed Savion Williams in this wide receiver room and with
Jayden Reed, Like, I think at this point we know
what we're getting when he's on the field. He's a
highly productive and efficient player.
Speaker 4 (15:36):
We know that.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
But again, he hasn't been a full time wide receiver.
He's I don't think he's going to be a full
time wide receiver with this wide receiver by committee approach
that Lafour likes to run. Outside of Dubs and Tucker Kraft,
this only two guys that over had over seventy percent
route per dropback rates. I think that probably comes back
and it's gonna be the same thing again this year.
So Jane Reid sixty nine point three percent route per drop.
(16:00):
That was sixty fourth amongst wide receivers. Unless you run
hot on touchdowns and you score eight to twelve touchdowns,
you just can't live in that world and be anything more,
even in the best ilk as a wide receiver three
and that's what Jayden Reid was twenty twenty four. Wide
receiver twenty six and fantasy points per game. But the
wide receiver forty three and expected fantasy points per game.
(16:23):
I don't even know. And I'm curious Pat's take on this.
We have not got to training camp. As the report
of this, like as far as like clip season and
hype and stuff like that. I think there is a
non zero chance that Green Bay drafted And I'm not
saying Jaden Reid's direct replacement, but I think he's gonna
make noise. Tell me that Sadian Williams isn't a more
(16:44):
souped up Ferrari version of the same exact role that
they asked Jayden Reid to play every single week. He's big,
he's fast. You could use him in the run game,
you can use him all over the field, in manufacture
touches and out of the slot I'm not telling you
that Savion's going to take Jane Reid's job, but if
that we're sitting in week sixteen and that happens, I'm
(17:05):
not gonna be surprised, dude. So I'm curious what Pat
thinks about Savion. But and honestly, this entire wide receiver room,
because I know he's got his finger on the pulse
of it.
Speaker 5 (17:15):
Savion is freaky.
Speaker 6 (17:16):
I mean, he's basically Randy Moss with tennis rackets for hands,
is the thing.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
He is, dary Bill Diebo Samuel Like, come on.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
I mean there, he is an intriguing guy for sure,
and he could cut into some of that gadget work
that Jaden Reid gets the Jets sweeps, the bubble screens,
that sort of stuff, Like a lot of those could
go to savey On Williams Now Like Jayden Reed does
sort of interest me a little bit, just in the
fact that when he is played with Jordan Love, He's
(17:44):
scored a lot of touchdown chemistry in those games, Like
the touchdown rate kind of fell off late last year,
but the Packers were going super run heavy.
Speaker 5 (17:52):
Love just wasn't healthy all year. He had that sprain.
Speaker 6 (17:55):
Mcl early in the season a groin injury was playing
through later in the season. I just don't know if
he was ever one hundred percent. They're gonna throw more.
I just worry that the targets are chopped up so
many ways. I think probably no one ends up with
a twenty percent target share in this offense. Sorry, d Bride,
don't see it for Dubbs. Dubs averaged three and a
(18:15):
half catches in forty six yards per game last year.
Speaker 5 (18:18):
I kind of think that's the ceiling.
Speaker 6 (18:21):
The guy who I know, Matt Lafleur has compared Dantavian
Wicks to Devonte Adams in the past. Wicks is really
good at getting open and really terrible at actually making
the catch, And yeah, I mean he was, although Devonte
Adams did have that same trouble his first couple of
(18:41):
years in the league. So maybe there's a big turnaround
coming for Dantavian Wicks in that category. But man, when
you watch that guy play, it's hard to imagine that
because he is just focus drops galore, and if there's
anyone on him when he's trying to make the catch,
he just can't do it.
Speaker 5 (18:56):
So he's interesting.
Speaker 6 (18:59):
Matthew Golden I think is probably going to be a
big play, boomer bust guy in his rookie year, a
guy who all the film analysts, the Daniel Jeremiahs, the
Dane Brugler is the mel kiper juniors they all loved
and had as a top fifteen overall draft pick. But
the production profile in college has a lot of the
fantasy analysts who do work on college prospects just running
(19:20):
up the red flags right and left. So this is
a really messy situation. I'm not sure there is like
weekly starter upside for any of these guys, quite honestly. Okay,
Tucker Craft, Tucker Craft is the guy I'm drafting in
this group.
Speaker 4 (19:37):
Scots, I'm taking on this passing attack. It's dubs and it's.
Speaker 3 (19:39):
Craft past that you can avoid me with all the
rest of this outside of some savon last round Best
Ball targeting Pat.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
If you're on the clock and you want to take
one of these Packers receivers, would it be read over
Golden still for you as it stands?
Speaker 6 (19:53):
Yeah, Jaden Reid, like in Best Ball, he's He's the
guy I've drafted most Offen, and I've still got you know,
probably no more than twelve percent, Jaden Reid on my
best ball teams.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
Reid currently wide receiver forty five and ECR so quite
the drop from last year when he was in, you know,
the mid wide receiver twenties, and Golden coming in at
wide receiver fifty two and deepro's Guy Romeo all the
way down at wide receiver sixty two. It doesn't get
much easier in Buffalo either, gentlemen, where the Bills they're
gonna be running out twenty twenty four second rounder Keon
(20:24):
Coleman at the X presumptively Joshua Palmer. He comes over
from the charters, likely gonna man that flanker position, and
then the truth, Khalil Shakira, he's back in the slot.
They also have former Fantasy favorites Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore
and Laviskas Chanalt junior plus seventh round rookie Kane Praether
Adam Maryland in the room. Pat, Where do you see
(20:44):
these high value targets from josh Allen going this season?
Speaker 6 (20:48):
I have some interest in Khalil Shakira is sort of
a high floor, low ceiling guy who can be your
wide receiver four flex type, and I have some interest
in Keon Coleman as a big, big play guy. Probably
isn't going to command a lot of targets. I mean,
key on average nineteen point two yards per catch and
just under ten yards per target in his rookie year.
(21:11):
He just didn't command a lot of targets. He needs
to get more consistent and earn more targets. But you know,
the Bills don't have anything close to an alpha receiver
on their roster, and I don't know if Keon Kleman
is going to become that this year. I do think
there is some target upside. I'm optimistic he can stay
a little healthier and take a big step forward. But yeah,
(21:32):
I'm not sure we get like the theme in Buffalo,
and I think this is kind of a mantra for
their offense. Everybody eats yeah, like they they give the
ball to three different running backs.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Yeah, they work in two tight ends and four or
five different receivers. So if we're looking for like big
breakthrough pass catching upside on the Bills roster, we're probably
not going to get it.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
Khalil secure wide receiver, thirty nine in ecre He finished
at thirty seven overall in points per game last season,
so feels reasonable. Keon Coleman wide receiver fifty four could
have been Lad McConkey if if maybe they they didn't move.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
Back that year.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
And then Joshua Palmer wide receiver seventy one debro Where
do you stand on the Buffalo Bill's pass catching room?
And I think Pat summed up very well that it
might just be kind of a mixed bag where he
can start these guys here and there, and outside of secure,
there might not be one guy that you're firing into
your lineup each and every single week.
Speaker 4 (22:30):
Yeah, I think that that's probably how this goes.
Speaker 7 (22:32):
Man.
Speaker 3 (22:33):
I think you look at Shakir and I went deep
in his numbers, like he did see his role grow,
Like weeks seven through seventeen, his target share did bump
up from so weeks one through six it was sixteen
point three percent that bumped up to twenty three percent
in week seven through seventeen. He averaged fifty seven receiving
yards per game, had almost a twenty eight percent first
(22:53):
reach year. So like if he were to run hot
and touchdowns in this offense, like during that stretch he
was the wide receiver thirty six some fantasy points per game.
Like if he runs hot with touchdowns, maybe he can
scrape closer to like more of a high end wide
receiver three. But I think that's basically all he's gonna
be because I still think that targets are gonna get
divvied up to a lot of different players. I think
(23:14):
that Buffalo loves because just considering how they run their offense,
and it's good, it's a good NFL thing, but it's
bad for us in fantasy that they really play the
matchups and they look at all of that and the
targets are going to go to a lot of different places,
and especially like the part that like, if you've been
playing DFS over the last few years, you're playing like
you're betting touchdowns and stuff whatever. It's one of the
(23:36):
maddening things about Buffalo. When they get into the red zone,
they do all kinds of different stuff. They run trick plays,
they were in Gadget stuff, pop passes, it's Josh Allen,
it's the running backs, it's it's the receivers, it's the
tight end four on the freaking dep part, And you're like,
who is that, oh, dear lord, And that's what happens
in Buffalo. Now, it's great for them. They score a
(23:56):
crap ton of points. It's just not very conducive to
a lot of fantasy upside. But so Shakier's fine where
he goes. I think he's a decent wide receiver three,
maybe a little bit of more meat on the bone.
I'm out on Keon Coleman just looking at his role
in this offense. I think that the Bills they drafted
Keon Coleman to be their man coverage beater last year.
(24:16):
Over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills have faced
the third most and the highest man coverage rate in
the entire all. And you look at what Keon Coleman
did last year. If you look at versus man coverage,
he had a twenty seven percent target per route run
rate versus man. Now against zone do that fell off
table fourteen percent. Nobody's feed their families in fantasyland with
(24:40):
a fourteen percent target per route run rate. And the
thing that I'll worry about with Keon Coleman is he
wasn't amazing at beating man coverage last year. He wasn't terrible,
especially with the rookie, But like amongst seventy one qualifying
wide receivers, thirty seventh in separation, forty fourth route win rate.
Maybe he grows in that aspect in his second season,
but to that, I think this is exactly why they
(25:02):
went out and they signed Joshua Palmer to play this
man coverage beating role because Palmer underneath the surface has
been awesome at it. Last year amongst all wide receivers,
he was fifth in route win rate and separation against
man coverage. So I think Palmer is gonna become the
guy that they go to when they face man coverage.
(25:25):
And you're gonna see me writing it up in the primer.
If they're gonna face a lot of man coverage that week,
I think it's gonna be a josh Palmer week. So
I think, again, this is gonna be very matchup dependent.
And there's nobody in this passing attack that I'm really
high on. I could just tell you I don't want
to draft Kean Coleman. I don't see the upside for
him that he's gonna be a splash week guy, and
I think Palmer could take his role in this offense.
(25:46):
Shakira is fine where he goes. But again where's the
upside unless he just runs incredibly hot with touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (25:52):
Like, could that happen?
Speaker 3 (25:54):
It's possible, But do all the numbers and stuff leave
me to want to draft a lot of Khalil Shakir. No,
I'm not gonna be heavy on him. I'm just gonna
mix him in in best ball formats.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
I'll tell you what.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
The one thing I kept doing last season was late
in that playoff stretch. I just kept betting the Keon
Coleman over one and a half receptions. I hope they
don't change that line and they just throw that out
week one, because I think I'm going right back to it.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
Baby.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
It's it's not fun. It's not like a you know,
a high ceiling or anything like that. But it's a
good little sweat there.
Speaker 4 (26:26):
I was bet dude.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
I was cashing Khalil Shakir overs almost the entire back
half of the season. I think, like you go to
betting pros and you could see, like, what was your
best thing to do? I think I was like seventy percent
on Khalil Shakir overs last year.
Speaker 4 (26:38):
It was nice.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
Some degenerate stuff right there.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Still debating these wide receivers will be taking questions all
week on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy pros
Ericson and Tom Strock and talk Bestball Mondays at for Eastern.
Myself and Debro answer your questions on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
at to Eastern, and then we also have some more
Q and a's coming your ways on Thursdays and Fridays
(27:04):
at five Eastern. Gives a follow and ask questions live
on twitch at twitch dot tv Slash Fantasy Pros. Let's
head to Pat's Neck of the Woods where the Chicago
Bears are all in on making Caleb Williams work under
center with head coach Ben Johnson now running the show
DJ Moore.
Speaker 2 (27:22):
He's back.
Speaker 1 (27:23):
He's broken one thousand yards four times in his career,
just fell short of that mark a season ago in
Williams rookie year Roma Doonsday. He also returns after seeing
one hundred and one targets as a.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
Rookie and Missouri product.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Luther Burden the third he enters the fray after being
selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Debro,
what is the target pecking order in your eyes here
in Chai toown and who are you circling if anyone
in fancy drafts.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
This is an utter, an absolute mess, dude. Like, I
just at first of all, I want to give a high,
high level look at this. So with all of the
Ben Johnson's team, we're looking at an offense that we
haven't even seen Caleb Williams support one really good fantasy
option yet in his career, and now all of a sudden,
(28:09):
we think he's gonna support what three, four, five options?
Like everybody's like, oh, I need to draft Holston Lovelan,
Oh I need to draft Luther Burdon, Oh DJ Moore,
Oh maybe it's roma doonsay, Like I need to see
Caleb Williams prove that he could support one really good
fantasy option, much less three to four. Like if that happens,
(28:31):
this is has to be like a top three to
five offense. And I just don't know if that happens
for Chicago. So I'm lower like on all of these
options just in general, like because all of them have warts. Man,
Like I think, if I'm gonna draft anybody out of
this this passing attack, it's probably gonna be Dj Moore
And you could throw all of the per route efficiency
(28:52):
stuff like as far as yards per route run, first
downs per route run, throw it all in the garbage
can because Caleb Williams was just god awful last year.
It was terrible, So that tanked the efficiency numbers on
a per route basis for basically everybody inside of this
passing attack. But the one thing that didn't change for
Dj Moore is he didn't lose his ability or didn't
go away his ability to earn targets and volume. I mean,
(29:14):
the guy was still thirteenth in target chair and tenth
and first read year in this offense. So if I'm
going to make a bet on volume out of this
offense and where volume goes, it's Dj Moore. I think
he's fine at his price. Tag Rome is a guy
I loved as a prospect.
Speaker 4 (29:29):
But the problem is.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
I cannot analytically, even outside of all of the bad
things that Caleb Williams put this offense through and put
up on film last year, I can't analytically make the
case even in the deeper metrics, for Romadunza and me
to be really high on him, despite even if I
had faith in Caleb Williams this year, Like if you
(29:51):
filter out and if you only accounted for catchable targets,
and you exclude screens in a Dounzay's sample from last year,
that would still only make him sixty first in yards
per route run first downs out run. He's seventy eighth
in separation, fifty fourth in route win rate. Now I
bring up those two metrics because that's agnostic. He's getting
(30:12):
open on his routes, or he's not getting open his routes.
That's agnostic a bad quarterback player good quarterback play. And
he was still outside the top fifty wide receivers in
both of those metrics. So it's like, how do I
get really high or over the moon on Romatuon say,
I loved him as a prospect, but it didn't happen,
and I don't know if it happens this year. And
Luther Burdon, you just count me out. On the archetype
of this player, I mean, he is a manufactured touch
(30:34):
guy through and through and through. He missed a lot
of the offseason so far with injuries. I don't know
when we're going to see him in camp. He's been
a manufactured touch guy, and just the archetype of that
wide receiver has not played out really well in the NFL.
I'll point everybody to Malachai Corley year last year. I'll
point everybody to Elijah Moore the year before, Andy Isabella
(30:55):
Rondell Moore. Have any of these guys that have been
highly manufactured touch guys in college, not guys that have
been asked to go out and run and just line
up and route dudes up. They haven't panned out in
the NFL. I would love it, and I hope Luther
Burden proves me wrong, but I just I don't. I
(31:16):
don't see him like it's not like even at his cost,
it's just not somebody I want to invest in when
we're talking about three to four options that are diluting
the target share and we don't know like this could
be one of those offense much like a lafor offense
that's matchup based or Buffalo where it's like every single
week they're utilizing a different guy based off of what
defense they're facing. And the holes that Ben Johnson season
(31:38):
that and that's gonna be maddening. People are like, do
I start him?
Speaker 1 (31:42):
Do I not?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
Do I start him doing not?
Speaker 1 (31:43):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (31:43):
I didn't start him and he blew up?
Speaker 5 (31:45):
Oh God? What do I do?
Speaker 4 (31:47):
And for me.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
I'm just like, nah, I'm just avoiding this headache outside
of maybe some shots on DJ Moore.
Speaker 1 (31:52):
Okay, yeah, and Burden, you know, just a tough twenty
twenty four season fourm his production nearly cut in half
from a great twenty twenty three of Missouri. Obviously, Brady
Cook kind of in and out of the lineup, weird
offensive scheme down there on the SEC. But still nonetheless
I'm out on Burden as well. But I know you're
you were high on Roma doonsay as a prospect and
(32:12):
wide receiver thirty seven. That's a high end wide receiver
for price tag right now? That that feels right right
despite all the advanced analytics that the Debro is rightfully
throwing at us.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
It just makes me want to gravitate towards him.
Speaker 6 (32:25):
What say you, Yeah, I'm a little above ADP and
ECR on him, Seth.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
The funny thing is someone is.
Speaker 6 (32:31):
Always higher on me if I get into an analyst
draft with like they never get him in those. But
I think there's a chance I might get him in
a couple of home league drafts because I don't think
the public at large is quite as high on on
Romo Dunesay and maybe fantasy analysts are getting too hung
up on the draft capitol. Yeah, I guess maybe my
biggest concern is that O doonesay Deebro mentioned it like
(32:55):
the separation numbers were not great, and I don't think
elite separation is really what Dunza is all about. He's
a guy who can make like and we saw this
when he was playing at Washington. He would be wearing
a defender like a well tarned Italian suit. Michael Pennix
didn't care. He was shoehorning it in and putting it,
(33:16):
you know, in the one spot where the defender couldn't
get it and o'doonsay could get it, and o'doonsay came
down with the catch every time. I mean, he was
amazing at contested catches at Washington. And I just don't
know if Caleb Williams is that kind of He might
be more of a see it, throw it kind of
quarterback for a timing guy. So I don't know if
(33:36):
it is a love connection between those two or at
least not yet. I mean, they seem to have a
really good rapport, like we saw it on Hard Knocks
last year. I see it with some of like the
local news coverage of Bears practices. Roman and Caleb like
each other. I just don't know how well their games
meshed together yet. Kind of the same thing with dj Moore,
Like it was weird. And I have a great respect
(33:58):
for DJ Moore. I think he's wonderful player. I'm slightly
below ADP and ECR on him because his body language
last year was terrible.
Speaker 5 (34:08):
Like, I felt like.
Speaker 6 (34:08):
DJ Moore was unhappy all year, and I don't know
if it was he and Caleb didn't really click, or
if it was just the coaching staff that he kind
of hated. Tough look, Yeah, I mean it very well
could have been. He was just unhappy with the system
he was in. So you know, I'm not like way
(34:29):
below ECR or ADP, but I'm a little below on
him and the guy I'm way out in front of
ECR and ADP on his Luther Burden.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Don't do it for me, no.
Speaker 5 (34:38):
Because he's a cheap dart thrower.
Speaker 6 (34:41):
I've got him at wide receiver fifty right now, and
everyone else has him at wide receiver seventy four. And
I think people are looking for this uh to use
this hamstring injury as an excuse to write off Luthor
Burden for the entire season, in which case great, Like
I'll swoop in and grab Luthor Burden in the final run,
because what if he is Ben Johnson's version of am
Ross Saint Brown in this offense And it's a plausible
(35:03):
what if, Because if Luther Burden had come out after
his sophomore year at Missouri where he lit the sec
on fire as a nineteen year old, like, I mean,
he was crazy and he's so good after the catch.
He has those Alan Iverson moves where he just like
makes the one cut and leaves a defender grasping it air.
(35:23):
So I'm excited about what he could potentially do. I
know he had a bad junior year. You mentioned it,
like Brady Cook wasn't healthy really all season and things
just didn't click. But I don't know, man, I do
I get it. I think Burden is interesting. The only
thing is, like, if they use Comet and Loveland together
(35:45):
in a lot of twelve personnel, then that probably keeps
Luthor Burden off the field too much for him have
any sort of impacts.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
That's where I'm at, Pat, Like, I think they could
use a lot of twelve personnel with those tight ends,
and then it's gonna limit it, Like, is burden just
the Jaden Reid of Chicago?
Speaker 6 (36:00):
Yeah, but but in fairness, at the price that Burden
is going at right now, that's fair. You can draft him,
drop him in week three, No harm, no foul.
Speaker 4 (36:10):
I don't disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
And I'm today years old to realize that people are
still ranking Dj Moore as the top twenty four wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (36:17):
So maybe I'm not going to get much of him
and drafts either.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Yeah, Wide receiver nineteen in ECR. Yeah, Wide receiver ECR.
So I was just about to say, too, it seems
like you're most in on more. I'm probably most in
on more and then paths more in on burden. So
not the most helpful analysis maybe, but maybe something we're
all just kind of avoiding.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
And you know, maybe it's one.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
Of those situations, Pat where you buy the cake and
not be icing right, you buy Caleb Williams.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
Well, maybe, but at the same time, an injury could
create value.
Speaker 5 (36:50):
True in this wide receiver cor like one of.
Speaker 6 (36:53):
These guys get hurt, gets hurt, and maybe all of
a sudden, the other two become significantly more valuable.
Speaker 2 (36:59):
Okay, let's go ahead.
Speaker 1 (37:00):
Let's round out the program with the Super Bowl runner ups,
the Kansas City Chiefs. Rashid Rice, of course, could be
facing league disciplinary action after being sentenced to five years
probation thirty days in jail to serve over the course
of that parole. That's due to his role in that
six car crash back in Dallas back in twenty twenty four.
(37:21):
Xavier Worthy was a league winner as a rookie after
Rice went down with the torn acl last season. Of course,
we also have Marque's Hollywood Brown fourth round pick, Jalen
Royals from Utah State, Juju Smith, Schuster, and Sky Moore
still hanging around in the mix as well.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Fits.
Speaker 1 (37:36):
Do you have a feeling on how the targets could
shake out and where the fantasy points go with the
Chiefs this season.
Speaker 6 (37:43):
Yeah, I'm a little worried that Worthy tops out at
like twenty percent this year, although I think there could
be some higher value targets. He's probably going to be
running deeper routes with Rashie back, or at least back
for twelve or ten games or whatever it is that
he actually plays. Hollywood is going to be Boomer bost
a couple big plays or whatever. But he is going
(38:03):
to draw targets. Here's the thing. Like, I've been below
consensus on Rashie Rice all off season, and I know,
like the enthusiasm has just been getting crazy from and
with some really smart people like I know, you know,
friend of the Show Ryan Heath and Fantasy Points really
likes him. I think Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points also
likes him. My buddy Evan Silva from Established the Run
(38:25):
before the suspension news, I think Evan had Rashie Rice
at thirteenth overall in his rankings. Here's why I am
not at all.
Speaker 3 (38:33):
I thought I was high wide receiver thirteen before the
suspension news.
Speaker 6 (38:37):
But yeah, I mean people are looking at what Rashid
did in his rookie year and then early last season.
Well early last season, Worthy was not a factor. He
was not fully integrated into this offense. Yet in the
three games where Rashie Rice was going nuts before he
got hurt in Week four, Worthy had drawn eleven targets
in those first three games. Then towards the end of
the season with Rashie out, if you take the last
(38:59):
eight games including the playoffs, and excluding Week eighteen, when
Worthy played I think one snap in Week eighteen, they
just sat their starters. Worthy at at least five catches
in all of those games, fifty catches total over those
eight games, pacing for one hundred catch season. Now, I
don't expect Worthy to have one hundred catch season this
year with Rice back, But when Rice was killing it
(39:21):
as a rookie like Marquez Valdez, Scantling started ten games
for the Chiefs, Justin Watson started a sky Moore started
eight games. Their target shares that year. MVS was at
a seven percent target share, sky Moore was at six
point three percent. Justin Watson actually the highest target share
of those three guys at eight point eight percent. Xavier
(39:45):
Worthy is going to command even if he is not
in a role similar to the one vacated by Rashid
Rice last year post injury. Worthy is going to command
targets even if he's running his routes further downfield at
a much higher rate than any those bombs that Rice
was sharing targets with in twenty twenty three. Sorry, I'll
(40:06):
due respect not calling those guys bombs, but let's just
say they.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
Were fantasy bombs.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
Below replacement level, solid.
Speaker 4 (40:13):
NFL players, not fantasy producers.
Speaker 6 (40:16):
Yes, And so I think even Hollywood Brown is going
to have higher than an eight point eight percent target
share in this offense. So Rice just does not have
the same path to targets that he had early last
year or.
Speaker 5 (40:31):
In twenty twenty three when he was sensational.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
Rice wide receiver twenty one in ACR, currently Worthy wide
receiver thirty one, Hollywood Brown wide receiver fifty eight. Derek,
could I make the case that maybe I just miss
out on all these guys because it's such a crowd
room and just go with Travis kelce Ma even the
seventh eighth round this year, you.
Speaker 3 (40:49):
Could, And I don't disagree with people taking that path.
I mean, for me, this wide receiver room is pretty
easy to me. I'm gonna take shots on Rice when
he falls in drafts. I'm still in on the talent
because I think when he comes back, we know the
role that he's going to play. And I don't I
think we're people like looking at this offense, in this
(41:10):
offense like I've honestly taken a one to eighty approach
on this, Like I've really come around to.
Speaker 4 (41:15):
This offense in the sense of.
Speaker 3 (41:18):
Beginning of the off season, I'm like, how is this
all going to work? But I don't know if Patrick
Mahomes gets the deep ball juice back man, Like he's
been a bottom ten quarterback for the last two years
at throwing the deep ball, So I don't know if
that comes back. And if it does, okay, fine, then
then light all my analysis on fire here. But if
(41:40):
it doesn't, and we keep getting this dink and dunk
kind of offense, and they keep doing the dink and
dunk offense with Rashie Rice whenever he comes back. Now
they have Brishard Smith out of the backfield, Travis Kelcey
and stuff, the dank and dunk go offense can be
better than what it was last year. And if Pachecko's
running the ball better, so like that can they can
run back this same game plan but be much more
(42:01):
effective considering the parts of pieces that they have in
this passing attack versus last year. And so I look
at this passing attack and I'm like, yeah, well, was
she Rice gets back? I want all the was she Rice?
Extremely high on him, like I bumped him down. But
we're all kind of projecting, We're we're guessing on how
long that suspension is. A lot of people said like
six games. I think it's gonna be two to four games.
(42:22):
If it's two games, his adp literally shouldn't jump down
very much, if at all. Like I've met wide receiver
twenty two right now, and I think with Rice, like
i've Pat, I know you're you're chomping in the bit.
Speaker 4 (42:39):
Go ahead and tell me what you think about this.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Would be going to go running through that before I
give my RISDA tribe here.
Speaker 6 (42:44):
Can you blame Patrick Mahomes for not wanting to throw
deep to mvs and Justin Watson.
Speaker 5 (42:49):
That's my thing.
Speaker 6 (42:50):
Now he's going to be throwing deep to Xavier Worthy
in Hollywood Brown And it's like, and I know coach
speak is coach speak, but Andy Reid does keep talking
about wanting to to uh get more verticality into this
passing game this year.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
No, and my problem with Mahomes, it's not the fact
that he's not throwing deep. It's the fact that when
he's thrown deep, he's been terrible at it. Like he's
been bottom ten in CPOE bottom ten and catchable target rate.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
So that's too bad.
Speaker 5 (43:16):
I'm not gonna say.
Speaker 6 (43:17):
I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes can't throw the deep ball.
Speaker 4 (43:20):
Come on, but the numbers say it. You don't have
to say it, Patty.
Speaker 3 (43:23):
The numbers, but those numbers are agnostic of the wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (43:28):
Those are not.
Speaker 3 (43:29):
Those are catchable targets are not. That is not related
to guys getting open being good receivers are bad receivers.
Speaker 4 (43:36):
That is pat that that is late.
Speaker 6 (43:38):
Because MVS always brings in catchable targets.
Speaker 4 (43:40):
I'm not saying that catches it. I'm not doing that
at all.
Speaker 3 (43:44):
But what I am saying is like Patrick Malmes has
not been good at the deep ball, and so I
think we're gonna go back to It's gonna be a
lot of checkdowns, a lot of guys asked to create
something after the catch.
Speaker 4 (43:55):
And so Rice I know his role.
Speaker 3 (43:57):
He's gonna get fed a ton of target because that's
what we saw last year, Like he had a thirty
one point five percent target chair before he went out
with injury, three point six yards per route run, forty
one point two percent first read chair. Like all of
these numbers are elite usage. Now maybe some of that
(44:17):
changes and we we nerve some of that. So he
gets a twenty seven percent target chare his yards per
route run drops into the high twos. Those are still
extremely good numbers. So Rice, I still want to be
in on at cost. You can just count me out
on Hollywood Brown. No, no, no, heck no, there's just
no way. Like, I don't trust him to stay healthy
(44:39):
through the entirety of a season. I hope that he can,
but I can't see it at this point in his
career because it's just time after time after time. This
is what happens with Hollywood Brown. And even when he
was healthy in the playoffs, dude, like he was not producing.
Like in the postseason he had a fifteen percent target chair,
he had zero point sixty seven yards per route run.
(45:00):
He had point zero four zero first downs per up
Like that is basically non existent. So I'm not worried
about Hollywood Brown and Ti Xavier Worthy. I think he's
going to go back to being the outside guy and
be in the field stretcher and mahomes as better as
a deep all passer.
Speaker 4 (45:15):
That's fine.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
But the thing with Worthy is we all lived in
like we talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when he
played the Rashi Rice role, and I'll keep going back
to this. He had a twenty five point six percent
design target rate. His AT dropped from twelve point one
to six point three. Those numbers mirror Rashi Rice almost.
(45:36):
I mean, it's a Spider Man meme man. And you
look at what did Worthy do before he got that usage.
Like we all talk about weeks thirteen through seventeen when
when Worthy was the wide receiver twenty one and fantasy
points per game in that role. I'm also old enough
to remember in weeks one through twelve when he was
the wide receiver fifty one in fantasy points per game
and only commanding a thirteen point nine percent target chare
(45:59):
when he was only nine separation one hundred and eleventh
in route win rate amongst one hundred and twenty four
wide receivers.
Speaker 4 (46:06):
In that time.
Speaker 3 (46:07):
So I'm burying Worthy. I don't really want to draft him.
He's going to get a bump with Rice is out.
Rice is about the only guy out of this passing
attack that I want, outside of some late best ball
shots on Jalen Royals, because if Hollywood Brown can't stay healthy,
Jalvin Royles is going to crack the top the starting
three wide receivers, and I love Jalen Royals as a prospect.
(46:28):
I hate that he went to Kansas City, but his
pathway not for this season, could be cleared up really
quickly after this year as far as what he could
get as far as targets coming up in next season.
And I think he's viable as a last round picking
best ball right now, because if Hollywood can't stay healthy,
if Rice gets the longer suspension, if Worthy can't be
(46:50):
the guy that we all want him to be, some
roads might lead back to Jalen Royals.
Speaker 1 (46:55):
It's an interesting debate. Rashid, Rice Xavier Worthy. Let us
know down in the common months below your thoughts on
this wide receiver room and all the wide receiver rooms
we touched on today, and that will do it for
us on the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast, we hope
we helped you solve a couple of these depth chart dilemmas.
Thanks so much for watching. As always, the best freeway
(47:16):
support us. Give this video a thumbs up if you
enjoy us type of content. Also make sure you're subscribing
if you're new for Pat Fitzmor's and Derek Brown.
Speaker 2 (47:23):
I'm seth Wilcock take care of y'all.
Speaker 7 (47:25):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify.
Speaker 2 (47:38):
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