FantasyPros - ARE THE RANKINGS WRONG? | Top 75 Overall Player Rankings & Impact (Ep. 1571) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello friends, that welcome in too, Fantasy Pros. This is
the Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Chris wels In. Today we
are digging into some ranks. Yeah, it's early in the year,
but it doesn't mean we're not talking about the big dogs.
We have got your top seventy five overall ranks. We're
gonna be going through it via the Fantasy pros ECR

(00:22):
Expert Consensus Ranks, all of our amazing rankers, creating one
big old glob of amazing rankness. Well, we're gonna look
at the impact, what could possibly be wrong, and we'll
be comparing it against the great and powerful Andrew Erickson
and Pat Fitzmorris here as we go through the entire
litany of it. Ericson, I ask you this question real quick.

(00:43):
Is it too early to be digging heavily this much
into like redraft overall ranks.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
No, it is not too early, because you see a
lot of carryover from these rankings that go into best
ball rankings. And it's funny. I think I was writing
an article for the site and I typed in early
rankings and then I thought to myself, is this early? Well,
I think early was like February rankings when we were
putting stuff out. So we're in May summer, is it
just abroad on the corner. This is the time to

(01:12):
be in the weeds, digging really deep and then adjusting
everything after a preseason usage. So again we need to
stick to our priors and come back to, oh, this
is where we stood in the when we were doing
the research, doing the math and not being you know,
pulled in a bad direction by oh, well this guy
play all the snaps with the preseason with the starters.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Don't be scraat, you know, Fitzy, A really interesting experiment
would be would be to like look at what the
ranks look like right now, and then watch the crazy
preseason stuff, you know, where everyone's reacting to one guy
getting two snaps and thirty yards, and then look at
the ranks right before like all the major draft weekends happen,
and see what it looks like. Because what I'm getting

(01:50):
at is, like, you know, with what we're seeing today
versus your ranks versus ECR do you expect there to
be some big, crazy volatility still going to happen or
do you think this is going to really have like
a nice shelf life that might even get people paired
back down of the craziness of preseason.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
I mean there will be some players where we see rankings, volatility, Welsh.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
There always is with.

Speaker 3 (02:13):
Training camp news, injury stuff, or even just like depth
chart speculation. A coach says something in a particular interview
that makes it sound like he's super high on a
player or maybe a little sour on a player, and
that moves the needle for ADP and ECR. So we
will see things like that, But it's never too early.

(02:33):
We've got to get the jump on all those people
in our leagues who don't pay attention to football news
until after the fourth of July.

Speaker 1 (02:39):
That's right, This is a true question. It's never too early,
and that's why we're here for you, and that's why
we've got all the amazing tools here at Fantasy Pros
and these ECR ranks that we're going to be talking about.
You can go and do your own research fantasypros dot Com,
Slash rankings, half PPR, full PPR, Dynasty, Superflex, whatever it
is that you've got. We've got those ranks and the
East got you covered where you can see who has

(03:02):
them the highest, who's got them the lowest the individual rankers.
There's a lot of customization you can do with it.
Fantasypros dot Com Slash rankings, you want to check it
out for yourself. But we've got you guys covered right here,
because we're going to bring up the big boards. We
are going to go in groupings of fifteen. I think
guys playing a bunch of fifteen a little bit of
a baseball thing playing in fifteen team leagues. But we're
going to go in those groupings of fifteen. I will

(03:23):
list them out, and then both of our fine gentlemen here,
our analysts, are going to talk about some differences they
have in their own personal ranks versus ECR, because again
this isn't their ranking, but their rankings do make an
important piece to how this ECR comes out. So going
over to the big board, we're looking at one through fifteen.
Jamar Chase is your leader at the tippy top here

(03:46):
Wide Receiver coming in at number one, followed by Saquon
Barkley at two, Bijon Justin Jefferson, Jamior Gibbs, Cede Lamb.
That is tier one. So that is the tier one
that is identified by all of our rankers of the
big core players, which you've got three running backs and
three wide receivers. Funny enough seven through fifteen, Poconakua Amana,
Saint Brown, Malik Neighbors, Ashton Genty coming in at ten,

(04:09):
followed by Nico Collins, Brian Thomas, Derrick, Henry Devana, A
Chan and Proc Hours. So we've got some interesting ones
in there. Let's start with the rookie and Pat. Let's
start with you, then real quick, Ashton Genty ECR ten,
how much higher can he go? We've gone down this
road before. I think everyone is going to test the rankings.

(04:29):
I think it was maybe you and me with Jake
Sealey where we were really pushing it earlier in the season,
and maybe it was me and Erickson where it was like,
how high can Ashton Genty go? How much higher do
you think he can go in your own personal ranks?
And what is maybe the ceiling of what draft season
he can get pushed to.

Speaker 3 (04:48):
I have him at seven overall Welsh and I wouldn't
be surprised if he got as high as four or five,
depending on how things go in in training camp and
the preseason. I went back and looked at the fantasy
pros historical ADP from twenty seventeen, in the year Saquon
Barkley entered the league. Saquon's rookie year ADP was seventh

(05:08):
overall behind Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott,
Antonio Brown, and Alvin Kamara. Hard to believe that was
only eight years ago. Huh, Saquon and Kamara are the
only ones still around. But Saquon paid off on that
seventh overall ADP had twenty twenty eight yards from scrimmage
fifteen touchdowns as a rookie. He finished as the RB

(05:29):
two and a half point PVR, just two point three
points behind leader Todd Gurley. I don't need to wait
until the back end of the first round of Draft
ash and jenty just because he hasn't compiled any sort
of NFL resume yet. We know the prospect profile is extraordinary,
just like it was with Saquon Barkley eight years ago.
Genty is positioned for a big, big workload with the Raiders.

(05:52):
His play color is gonna be Chip Kelly, who operates
at a fast pace. My only real concern is that
the Raiders weren't a very good run blocking team last
year ranked thirtieth in the league in adjusted lineyards. But
then again, the Giants ranked twenty ninth and adjusted lineyards
in Saquon's rookie season, and he did okay for himself
that year.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
Ericson true or false? Ashton Genty is RB four at
the end of this year.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
False because he finishes a top three running back. I
set you up.

Speaker 1 (06:19):
I knew it was coming up. We're not talking about
him on your list here, but where do you have gent?

Speaker 2 (06:25):
I have him five, So baby, that's I want him
on my fantasy team. When I do a lot of
these rankings for twenty twenty five, I'm thinking about, Okay,
who are drafting at the top of twenty twenty six?
Isn't it not Ashon Genty? Wouldn't he be one of
the best candidates to be who's the one on one
next season? Yeah? Maybe it's not perfect in Week one
for ash and Gendy. Again, he's a rookie, but we've

(06:47):
seen not only receivers hit the ground running, but it's
always rookie running backs, especially ones that are drafted this highly. Again,
it's a little bit of a throwback where we don't
usually see running backs go with this high in the
NFL draft nowadays. But when we do, when we see
a guy go sixth overall, we have to take advantage of.
This is a rare special player. And the Raiders recognize
that they have a ton of needs on their team.

(07:08):
They're like, nah, we're gonna take the best running back.
He's the best player. And obviously running back was a
need for them as well. But they could have gone
another direction. They could have drafted another offensive lineman, but
they didn't. They're like, we want Ashton Genty, and I
think having stability at quarterback, which you know Smith, I
think that's helpful. He's someone that's gonna dump the ball
off to Ashton Genty. So I think the wheels are
up and I want you. I want the young buck

(07:28):
on my team to finish the season strong. So give
me Ashton Genty and his three hundred and fifty touches.

Speaker 1 (07:33):
Let's get spicy here for a minute. Let's let's cause
some comments to pop up in the in the YouTube video,
because let's talk about Saquon Barkley. ECR number two, so
he is the number one running back according to all
of the aggregate analysts. Number two, so number one running back,
number two overall, not for mister Andrew Erickson Andrew Ericksson.

(07:54):
I know the answer to this, but let's hear it.
Saquon Barkley or Ashton genty this year.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
I'm drafted aation G. I'm not drafting Sequon Barkley, and
I have him ranked at ten. I'm not going to
argue if he should be ten nine eight seven. I
don't think that he should be the number one running
back Ranke. I don't think he should be the number
one overall pick ranked because he's coming off the season
where he touched the ball nearly five hundred times. And
this is a process play for me. Chasing the running
back that led the NFL and touches the year before

(08:21):
is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the
following year. We just saw it this past year with
Christi McCaffrey. Year before that, Josh Jacobs fell off a cliff.
Only two running backs have finished as RB one's the
following year after leading the NFL and touches since twenty thirteen,
and Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that entire
timeframe to do it and finished inside the top five
back to back seasons. So even a SAQ one finished

(08:42):
his top five, he's still not number one. So I'm
just going with the process play. I get that if
he stays healthy, I'm probably going to be wrong, especially
if they banned the tush push and SAQ one Barkley
scores twenty touchdowns. But just based on what we've seen historically,
based on the trends, that I think holds some weight
as we are projecting these players into the few. Sure,
I'm just gonna face Saquon and that's my strategy.

Speaker 1 (09:04):
Pat Genty or Barkley for you.

Speaker 3 (09:08):
I've got Barkley ranked higher right now. I've got them
ma RB two behind beach On. No, I totally get it. Ericson,
I mean, four hundred and eighty two touches last year
if you include playoffs, age.

Speaker 4 (09:19):
Twenty eight, I totally get it.

Speaker 3 (09:21):
But I guess the one thing I would say in
sai Que's defense is that he probably does have the
best offensive ecosystem of any running back in the league.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
Very interesting, Very interesting for all of you want to
know Genty or Barkley comments drop them for the overall ranks.
A little bit of a different not as much of
a difference as you would potentially think from two to ten. Here,
let's go pat. You got another one in the top
ten here that I think is really interesting. We're back
end is seeing or top fifteen, we're seeing a tight end.
A tight end is pushing back ECR fifteen. You got

(09:52):
brock Bauers even higher. Though first round tight ends always
make my stomach queasy. Doesn't quite do it. But you're
pushing him higher than ECR fifteen overall? How much higher
twelfth overall?

Speaker 3 (10:08):
And I do think brock Bauer should go at the
turn in twelve team drafts. Travis Kelcey used to go
late in the first round in most fantasy drafts, and
while I personally was not a first round Travis kelce guy,
I totally understood it. Tight End is always such a
problematic position, and Kelsey was an emphatic solution to that problem.

(10:29):
Here's the thing. I think it's even easier to justify
Bowers as a first rounder in twenty twenty five than
it was with Kelsey a few years ago. Bowers played
most of his rookie season at the age of twenty one.
He had one hundred and twelve catches and almost twelve
hundred yards receiving. Even though the Raiders had one of
the worst QB situations in the league, Bowers finished third

(10:51):
among all pass catchers and receptions that includes wide receivers.
He was behind only Jamar Chase and Amnas Saint Brown
as a tight end end at age twenty one. And
now the Raiders have an aggressive downfield thrower in Geno Smith,
and again we have the Chip Kelly factor, fast pace
a lot of plays. And by the way, zach Ertz

(11:12):
had some pretty good years under Chip Kelly when they
were in Philly together back in the day. So yes,
I do think Bowers is a clear tier above anyone
else at tight end. I love George Kittle, but he's
getting older and his usage can kind of vary from
game to game. A lot of times they just use
them more as a blocker. Bowers is faster than Trey McBride,
had a much better college career, doesn't have the touchdown

(11:34):
allergy like McBride does. So I really think you can
make a strong case for Bowers being a back end
of the first round tight end.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
Pretty cool wheel you could do in a twelve team league.
You got Brian Thomas and Brockbowers, that's a pretty good start,
which I think most of us would be relatively comfortable
unless you don't like tight end, so ericson, I guess
really the only thing is does brock Bowers belong in
the first round?

Speaker 2 (11:58):
Loaded question? Does he belonged the first round? So I
have him right outside, so I'm pretty close to the ECR.
So I have him at sixteen, so fully fading rock Bowers.
That's not really the case here because I think that
Fitz's a really good point just how talented brock Bowers
is a situation. I felt better about being lower on
Bowers when it wasn't Geno Smith as the quarterback, but
then when they landed him, I'm like, man, like, this
is like a really good spot for brock Barers because

(12:20):
at least could have made the argument, well, it's gonna
be bad quarterback play again, can he do it again?
But he's got Geno Smith, So I feel good about that,
and I feel I think it's really more about just
how you're attacking the tight end position. It's not that
I want to fade Bowers. It's more or less I
want to draft late round tight end, like that's the
strategy I want to go with and I know last
year Bowers obviously was a late round tight end. And

(12:40):
you talk about yes, some of the early tight ends hit,
such as like a trade McBride, but some of the
early round titands were also really bad last year. And
if you had gone early round tight end, what did
that mean you missed out on brock Bowers potentially as
a rookie, missed out on John new Smith, who finishes
the tight end four. So I don't always loved pigeonholing myself,
as like brock Bowers is my tight end. I'm locked
and loaded. I'm not going late round tight I'm not

(13:01):
going to the waiver wire for tight end. So that's
the only hesitance I have about him. But I don't
have any problem with his rank and where he is.
But the reason for not picking him where he is
going in drafts or in ECR, which is because Hey,
I like the receivers here, like this receiver running back pairing,
and I'm going to take tight end. I'm going to
punt off the position.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
The top of the wide receivers in the first round
for Rickson's last one. They're pretty interesting. Obviously, Jamar Chase
is kind of back Justin Jefferson has re established Cede Lamb.
That one kind of stands out ECR six. You definitely
could see there's more upside and ericson you have got
him higher amazingly. He is one of very very few
players that you have above Ashton genty a different position

(13:39):
of course, but Cede Lamb, you're higher than ECR. What's
your take on? I mean, is this the potential number one? Like?
Could you see Cedee Lamb overtaking given Jamar Chase this year?

Speaker 2 (13:48):
Yeah? I think it is because who were we draft?
Who was the consensus number one receiver? Last year? I
had Chase, but ECR had Ceedee Lamb. So what happened
between this year and last year? Where? Oh we now
because lam got hurt got hurt? Well, now Ceedee Lamb
can't be wide receiver one. We saw him have a
monster season in twenty twenty three with a healthy Dak Prescott.
He's getting Dak Prescott back. Now. I get Dak has

(14:10):
been banged up, he's dealing with injury, he's getting older.
But when Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive play caller twenty
twenty three, that's the year we saw Dak and Ceedee
Lamb explode. So I wanted to point this out because
I can't rank Justin Jefferson. I had a Ceedee Lamb
because I know who Dak Prescott is and I don't
know who JJ McCarthy is as an NFL quarterback and
that concerns me. So for ECR to have Justin Jefferson

(14:33):
ahead of Ceedee Lamb, it just kind of like, well,
last year it wasn't like this, and we had question
marks about Jefferson. And I mean, if Dak Prescott hadn't
gotten injured, I think Lamb would have finished inside the
top three because he was playing pretty well the first
seven games with Dak Prescott top five Fantasy numbers per game.
So yeah, I like Ceedee Lamb a lot. I think
that he's he's coming at a discount.

Speaker 1 (14:52):
I think so FITZI Ceedee Lamb or Justin Jefferson.

Speaker 3 (14:57):
Oh man, I've got a neck and neck right now.
I do have Jefferson and ranked a little bit higher.
I'm not as worried about the McCarthy the quarterback factor
as eric'son is, but like you can, absolutely I have
no beef whatsoever with taking ceed Lamb ahead of Justin Jefferson,
and if faced with that choice, I think I would
want to split it up like fifty to fifty.

Speaker 1 (15:15):
Oh yeah, if you're like consolidating ten drafts, you're trying
to have just different shares of it. Well, it's a
very interesting question, one that we are going to watch
in ECR as we get closer to draft season. We've
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Speaker 1 (17:03):
Slash promos Gentlemen, Let's go Picks sixteen through thirty the
next fifteen here, and we are going to kick it
off with my boy Christian McCaffrey falling all the way
down at sixteen. That is RB seven on the list,
aj Brown, Bucky Irving, Drake London, Josh Jacobs. That rounds
out your top twenty. Starting at twenty one, we've got
Jonathan Taylor, Lad McConkie, Trey McBride, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.

(17:27):
So we got two quarterbacks at twenty four to twenty five, Kyraen, Paris,
Jackson Smith and Jigba. And this moves us into a
tier four which includes Chase Brown, T. Higgins, and Tyreek Hill.
That is sixteen through thirty in some degree second third
round picks for most in Fantasy. Eric Soon, why don't
we start with you here, and we're talking about a
wide receiver in Drake London ECR nineteen. There's a let's say,

(17:51):
what is he wide receiver ten on this list, which
is pretty good setup, but you've got him quite a
bit higher, so much so he's a first round pick
for you this season. So let's hear the rank on
Drake London and why he's so high.

Speaker 2 (18:05):
So I have Drake London my eleventh ranked overall player,
and it's because I love his red zone potential. With
Michael Pennix, you know, talking about how Jamar Chase last year,
what could we have seen when we're trying to project him?
Why what made me so bullish on him being the
wide receiver one in twenty twenty four? And it was
because the guy commanded a high level of red zone targets.

(18:27):
And when you look historically at who is the number
one receiver in fantasy football every single year, it's the guy. Okay,
you score the most points, of course, but it's the
guy who sees the most red zone targets. And all
Drake London has done since entering the NFL, besides having
mostly horrible quarterback play, is command red zone targets. Over
the last three seasons, he has led the NFL and

(18:49):
what receivers in red zone target rate, So basically, whenever
they're in the red zone, he has the highest rate
of being targeted. So last year end of the year,
twenty three red zone targets that type of the third
most among all wide receivers. Maybe he's also a target hog.
Third highest target rate per oute run at thirty percent.
With Michael Pennix as his quarterback. Last year, he was
targeted on forty one percent of his route's run. Look,

(19:11):
I think at Michael Pennix was a bit of an
incomplete We didn't see a full season out of him.
But if he takes that next step entering year two
as the full time in trench starter, the team is
obviously very behind him as the number one guy. I
think Drake London could be a top three, if not
the number one overall receiver if he works well when
it comes to touchdowns, because I think that's what his ceilings.
I think that he could score fifteen touchdowns attached to

(19:31):
Michael Pennock. So again, the only thing I could see
going against this would be if Bijehn ends up getting
all the touchdowns. Either way, I both I like the
RB one for the Falcons and I like the wide
receiver one for the Falcons. So that's why I'm really
bullish on Drake London fit.

Speaker 1 (19:43):
So let me take a different take on asking you
about Drake London. I feel like we've had quite a
few years of heavy wide receiver heavy wide receiver valuations.
This year's pretty interesting. On ECR, It's almost split RB
tow wide receiver and maybe I'm like, if I were
looking at previous years, it would be a little bit
weighted later. But through the top twenty, there are nine
running backs through the top twenty. The only thing breaking

(20:04):
it from being a complete split is rock Powers. So
you have nine running backs, you've got eleven wide receivers
and one tight end. Do you think the idea of
Drake London at eleven is okay if you put prioritization
more in wide receivers than running backs, which seems to
be happening. Maybe a little bit. There's like a slight
little resurgence of running back value popping back up. Or

(20:25):
do you think that we should be valuing running backs
a little bit higher, which pushes a guy like Drake
London back a little bit?

Speaker 2 (20:31):
No.

Speaker 3 (20:31):
I think the reason for that phenomenon is that we
had this unusual circumstance last year of running backs staying
extraordinarily healthy and having great injury lucks. So all these
guys who were drafted as running back two's really like
popped and gave us almost like running back one production.
It was a really good year for like top twenty
five running backs, And I think that's reflected this year

(20:55):
and last year there were wide receivers getting hurt at
a really crazy c so that's kind of why it's happening.
I think London is absolutely worthy of being drafted close
to the turn. I'm not quite as high as Erickson,
but I'm higher on him than ECR, so kind of
splitting the difference.

Speaker 4 (21:13):
I think I've got him fifteenth overall.

Speaker 3 (21:16):
And yeah, you know, I'm a Kirk Cousins hater and
I love Michael Pennix, so I absolutely think this sets
up really well for Drake London.

Speaker 1 (21:24):
Well, unfortunately, that awesome resurgence of running back injuries did
not float over to the one guy that we're going
to talk about in Christian McCaffrey. He would be the
one that really got smacked with it. But it is
an all time value and you have all time running
back value popping up here. He is ECR sixteen, So
that is a second round pick if you want to invest.

(21:45):
But Pat, you don't seem too excited about investing. You
are a bit lower on Christian McCaffrey than the consensus.
Is it all related to you? Do you not think
he will stay healthy and he's not going to be
on the fielders or something more.

Speaker 4 (21:57):
No, it's pretty much that well.

Speaker 3 (21:58):
And yeah, I didn't even count Christian McCaffrey as part
of that trend of good health for running backs because
we didn't even have Christian McCaffrey at the beginning of
the season.

Speaker 4 (22:09):
So many drafters got burned so badly.

Speaker 3 (22:12):
And I think the forty nine ers kind of showed
us last year that they can't be trusted to be
fourthright about McCaffrey's health or lack thereof.

Speaker 4 (22:19):
So McCaffrey's about.

Speaker 3 (22:21):
To turn twenty nine. He's missed six or more games
in five of the last seven years. He's missed nine
or more games in four of the last seven years.
I think McCaffrey can be a worthwhile risk if you
are in a league full of sharks, because you might
need to take some risk to have a chance to.

Speaker 4 (22:43):
Topple the sharks.

Speaker 3 (22:44):
But if you are one of the sharks, McCaffrey is
not a risk worth taking because when your shark, your
emphasis in the first two rounds should be on avoiding
the bear traps. And with his injury history, McCaffrey is
definitely a potential bear trap.

Speaker 1 (22:59):
Ericson call me a guppy because I see Christian McCaffrey
in the second round and I am swim in over there.
But I get it, he's becoming a little bit of
the Mike Trout of football right now with injuries. But
what's say you ericson where are you out on Christian McCaffrey.
Break my hopes and throw me in the pond when
you tell me he's going to be outside your top
twenty five or something.

Speaker 2 (23:19):
No, he is not outside my top twenty five. He
is someone we talked about McCaffrey on the Draft or
Pass Show Myself, Joe Piece of Bia and Debro and
he was a guy who's drafting. I love taking him
in the second round because, yes, we faded him last
year because he was coming off all the touches. Well,
this year he's coming off sixty touches or sixty five
touches whatever, the lowest of his NFL career. He's never
come off a season with less work and tear on

(23:41):
his time.

Speaker 1 (23:41):
He's super healthy now. He didn't even play last year.

Speaker 2 (23:43):
He's great. So I think that from what you get
from a per game basis with him, Kyle Shanahan can
say whatever you like. The guy can't help himself. He
sees CMC. It feels like, need to give this guy
thirty touches no matter what. And no, that's not good
for CMC's long term value and health. But when he's
on the field, I mean he's going to be in
weekly right where are we gonna rank it in week
one week one rankings? He's not going to be outside

(24:05):
the top thirteen. I can tell you that much. So
when he's again, it all is a health question. There's
the reason why Again I still haven't ranked below Saque
even though I'm lower on Saque, I wouldn't take him
over Saquon Barkley because I'm playing the injury car with
Barkley as well. But he's coming off a healthy season,
so I will stop the Saquon fade at McCaffrey. But
right if Barkley's gone, like mcaffrey's next running back, I'm
looking for and I love getting the discount. Round two,

(24:26):
could we have.

Speaker 1 (24:27):
A moment from the crow? This is only old people
are going to get it. Where we fire it up.
If you get Ceedee Lamb in the second round, you
get Christian McCaffrey. Can we just have an all time
fire it up roster.

Speaker 2 (24:36):
I mean those were two top three picks last year.

Speaker 1 (24:39):
Yeah, and you cant both lay routine all right, Well,
you know, we don't come at me when he's injured again,
I get it, I just can't.

Speaker 4 (24:45):
No kidding.

Speaker 3 (24:46):
Just alert the European doctors so they can be ready
to have McCaffrey in tip top shape for the twenty twenty.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
Yeah, who knows what they did over in Jermany. He
might have new calves and stuff like that. Everything might
be new Germany. They make a great car and probably
make great the ca for football players or whatever he
had done. Let's er, so let's go to another running back.
We talked a lot about him last year on the
shows that we were doing, Chase Brown. Chase Brown comes
in with an ECR of twenty eight. He's actually the
top of tier four. So so far as you've seen,

(25:15):
it took twenty seven players to have three tiers of
value on ECR. Again, fantasypros dot Com slash rankings if
you want to see what those look like. Those are,
you know, just kind of globs of like these guys
are in general spaces of value whether you want to
maybe move to different positional stuff. But Chase Brown starts
off the next tier at Tier four at twenty eight,
but you have him higher. You actually have him as

(25:36):
a second round pick. So let's talk about how many
picks higher as far as ECR rank goes, and why
you've got him so high.

Speaker 2 (25:43):
So I have him at number twenty three. And it's
because it's Chase Brown Sayson Is. It's full go. I'm
not concerned about you know, the current state of this
backfield where you have smajp Ryan, you have Zach Moss
coming off a season ending neck injury, and they drafted
TOAJ Brooks in round six and he's really good in
pass protection. Okay, great. Chase Brown when he was at
the Belcoal for the Bengals last year RB five in

(26:03):
points per game RB one and expected points per game. Basically,
no running back had better usage or better deployment to
score Fantasy points than Chase Brown did. So can I
guarantee he's going to have the same role. No, but
I can tell you that within his range of outcomes,
he has a ceiling that he outscores every other running back.
And to get that guy in the start of round three,

(26:25):
end of round two, I want him all day, every
day again. I see Chase Brown as you know what
we've seen for years passed with Kyrine. We're thinking, oh man,
someone's going to get more involved, He's going to break down.
We've seen Chase Brown at Illinois be a work course,
last year be a work course. What are gonna see
twenty twenty five? Chase Brown be a work horse? It
arguably one of the best offices in the NFL. So
I am all go on Chase Brown, and I'm not

(26:47):
really concerned about the rest of these depth pieces in
the backfield, So I want a lot of him on
my teams.

Speaker 1 (26:52):
Pat you, let's say you go tight end, wide receiver.
Let's say you get Bowers and you get a wide receiver,
and you tell yourself you want a running back in
the third round, Kiren Williams or Chase Brown.

Speaker 4 (27:02):
Chase Brown without without a station.

Speaker 3 (27:05):
Yeah, I mean, there's never going to be any pushback
from me on Chase Brown.

Speaker 4 (27:10):
Love.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
You know, I do think it's possible they dial back
the workload a bit this year now that they've got
other options. Taj Brooks and I don't know, maybe we
see Zach Moss a little bit, but yeah, I mean,
Chase Brown just showed last year he is really good.

Speaker 4 (27:25):
And he's playing in one of the best offenses in
the league.

Speaker 1 (27:28):
One of the most polarizing players not named Christian McCaffrey.
I'd probably say of this list that we're talking about,
this would be the second most polarizing player is Tyreek Hill.
And I think he is going to vary across the
board of Some people might even make excuses to get
him back into the first round for the big playability.
He comes in at ECR thirty here, But Tyreek Hill

(27:48):
has pushed much further down for you, mister Pat fitz Morris.
Is this built around the offense? Is this built around waddle?
Is this built around you know, his deterioration as a
player or d Is it all the above? So talk
to us about how far down Tyreek Hill is on
your ranks compared to ECR.

Speaker 4 (28:06):
Kind of all the above?

Speaker 3 (28:08):
Wel I just I want no part of thirty one
year old Tyreek Hill coming off a bad year playing
with a Dolphins team that seems like it could be
on the way down. I mean, sure, it's possible. Tyreek's
disappointing twenty twenty four season was just a mirage and
he goes right back to being the seventeen hundred yard
guy he was in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.

(28:29):
But it's also possible that twenty twenty four was just
the beginning of the end, and I don't really want
to pay a mid third round price to find out,
Nor do I really want my third rounders productivity to
be tied to the health of to a tongue of ailoa.
The relationship between Tyrek and the Dolphins doesn't seem great
these days. I'm just not really interested in drafting Tyreek

(28:51):
unless I get a major discount, and it looks like
I'm not going to get a major discount based on
ECR Erickson.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
You and I have an interesting relationship with the Dolphins
the last year. If people watch on betting Pros and
our Tyreek kill more Jalen Waddle than anything, is it
Jalen Wattle Sisson and are we letting go of Tyreek
Hill or are you just still back in.

Speaker 2 (29:09):
I am passing on Tyreek Hill. It was another player
we talked about in the Draft or Pass Show, and
Tyre Hill was very low on my priority list. Again,
fitz laid out some of the concerns as just did
you an older player coming off a very bad season,
and even when Tua was healthy last year, he's still
underperformed bursus expectation. Then you have the outburst at the
end of the year where he wants to move from

(29:30):
the team. He has this wrist injury thing that he's
dealing with. How many more red flags we need to
see here with Tyreek Kill where it's like, maybe we should,
you know, take her foot off the gas pedal just
a little bit. But to fits his point, he's also
still Tyreek Hill like he's someone that you He's always
goes in the first round as one of the first
receivers drafted. So when people see the name, I think, oh,
I want to click on Tyry Kill by the dip.

(29:50):
But I mean, if the dip is now he's shipped
off to another team and we don't know what just
going to be potentially, I don't feel like dabbling. And
to be honest too, I I do like Jalen Wadley
is kind of like a discount buy for now it
seems like the third year in a row. But I
also I am getting really bad vibes from this Dolphins
And then when we team this team like totally tanks and
like Daniel gets canned and it's just a whole rebolt

(30:12):
like two, they move on from him. So this Dolphins
team overall is starting to concern me as I just
kind of look at them from a wholelistic standpoint, And
I mean, is Tyrek Hill on the team in League
eight team in twenty twenty five? What do you guys think?
You think he's on the team.

Speaker 1 (30:26):
So I'm going to say, I'm going to say no,
I mean, is on the team? Is he on the
team Week one?

Speaker 2 (30:30):
Yeah, there's too many red flags with Tyrek to take
him ECR thirty for me.

Speaker 1 (30:33):
Okay, there you go. I actually think he might even
be one of those guys unless there's a collective narrative
across the industry. He could even move up a little
bit if there's some positive vibe, positive talks and preseason
and hey, he looks fresh legged, and all of a
sudden he goes up because of that talent. But I
think you're probably safer more than anything fading a bit.
You guys can experiment with exactly where Tyreek Hill can

(30:56):
go and all the players we've talked about with our
draft simulator you can finish a full mock draft against
realistic opponents in just minutes. There's no waiting for picks.
You can customize settings to match your exact league format,
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can see how your team's grade out instantly. And best

(31:19):
of all, you can try it for free at fantasypros
dot com slash mock. Fantasypros dot com slash mock. Do
it today, get ready and get rolling with the Fantasy
Pros Draft simulator. Next fifteen is up. Let's go to
the big board. We are thirty one through forty five.
Got another quarterback kicking us off here at thirty one
Jayden Daniels, followed by Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Breis Hall,

(31:41):
James Cook, Garrett Wilson, Davonte Adams. Now with the Rams,
Jalen Hurts, DJ Moore, George Kittle, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker,
Rashi Rice. That ends out Tier four. Remember Tier four
started at twenty eight, so that's a big grouping. And
then the last two do start off Tier five, Zay
Flowers and Marvin Harrison Junior. So that is your thirty
one through four. Five Ericson, let's go to you and

(32:02):
let's talk about Garrett Wilson. We've had a lot of
conversations built around the running backs and how there could
be some committee. But Garrett Wilson looking a little bit better.
ECR thirty six on this list, so that mid tier four,
but you've got him quite a bit higher, So let's
talk about that rank boost.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
I have Garrett Wilson at number twenty five overall because
I'm buying this Justin Fields connection potentially with Garrett Wilson
again former teammates at Ohio State. So we saw Fields
unlock a ceiling with Dj Moore and their season together
in twenty twenty three with the Chicago Bears. So yes,
I think that Justin Fields, although he's not perfect as
a passer, he's shown hey, I I'm hyper targeting one

(32:41):
guy on the offense and fluttering him with targets, then
that guy can be a top six fantasy finisher. And
Garrett Wilson, I know last year was really frustrating, but
it was a career year for him. He was still
a fantasy wide receiver one last year despite sharing the
lull of Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams of the second
out of the season, which really hurt his numbers. But

(33:02):
when you look at just targets right Garrett Wilson since
entering the NFL, the only guys that have more targets
than him are Demonte Adams, his former teammate who had
to split again targets with the second half of last year,
and Ceedee Lamb. That's it. And you look at this
Jets depth chart behind Garrett Wilson Josh Reynolds is this
guy Mason We're getting excited about Mason Taylor, who is

(33:23):
the most Dalton Schultz tight end ever that just is
a system produced tight end, and we're excited about him
getting targets in this offense. It's gonna be the Garrett
Wilson show. I get, even if they're run heavy. I
think Wilson's going to see flirt with a potential thirty
percent target share, and I'm willing to buy into that
upside of a player that could see a boatload of
targets from Justin Fields, who again has unlocked a player before.

(33:45):
So I think he's too low because I think I
love the talent, and I think that maybe this is
again another season of Garret Wilson, maybe with the best
quarterback play of his career. Maybe that's a little bitch
about of a stretch, but I do think there's some
upside here. Pat.

Speaker 1 (33:57):
I know these are two different positions, but who will
you have more shares of Garrett Wilson or BREECEE Hall?
And I asked that because Breece Hall on ECR is
higher than Garrett Wilson. So take out the positional thing there.
Who do you think you have more shares.

Speaker 4 (34:10):
Of Garrett Wilson? No question.

Speaker 3 (34:13):
Aaron Glenn has basically said he doesn't want to have
a lead back. He wants a committee, and people seem
to be ignoring that with the ranking of Breece Hall.
And you know, like I'm not quite as high on
Garrett Wilson as Ericson is, but I'm ahead of ECR
on him for sure, And like I might even be
able to move Garrett Wilson a little higher than I

(34:33):
have him right now, Like I've got him at thirty
thirty four, and you know, like I have him behind
T Higgins and Terry McLaurin. And I do think there's
a case that Wilson should be ahead of those guys.
But T Higgins says Joe Burrow as his QB. I
trust Joe Burrow, Terry McLaurin is, Jayden Daniels, I trust
Jaydeen Daniels. Garret Wilson is justin Fields. I'm cautiously optimistic

(34:56):
about Fields, but I don't have the same level of.

Speaker 4 (34:58):
Trust in him that I do with Burrow and in Daniels.

Speaker 1 (35:01):
One wide receiver, you have got higher than Garrett Wilson,
and you've got quite a bit higher than consensus is
Mike Evans. Mike Evans comes in at ECR thirty two.
Fits you've got him at twenty six. He's aging like
a fine wine. I suppose, so talk to us about
Mike evens.

Speaker 3 (35:16):
Yeah, and that's it. Well, he is getting a little older.
He turns thirty two in August. Maybe the Tampa Bay
offense isn't his sharp now that Liam Cohen has left
for Jacksonville. I do still think Evans is a pretty
low risk, high yield investment. Just had his eleventh straight
thousand yard season dramatic fashion at the end, getting it

(35:37):
on one of the last plays of the game. Even
though he missed three games with a hamstring injury, which
is really one of the only injuries this dude has
ever had. He's just been indestructible for the most part.
Eleven touchdowns in fourteen games last year, and Evans has
had double digit tds in for the last five years.
He averaged two point five two yards per rout run

(35:57):
last season. That was actually a career best. I'm not
worried about age, I'm not worried about target competition. I'm
not worried about the absence of Liam Cohen. I just
want to keep betting on a player who pays off
every freaking year. So I'm going to keep drafting Mike Evans.

Speaker 1 (36:12):
Wasn't it Erickson when we were talking about it when
it happened, Didn't he like throw a huge pout when
he didn't get it and then he got it and
he just like leave the field by his all timer
for Mike Evans. Let's do this rank these guys ericson
Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams.

Speaker 2 (36:32):
Hmm, interesting names there, Okay, so I have it Garrett Wilson,
Davante Adams, Mike Evans, but they are all in the
same and when I look at my tears, they're all
in the same tier three for me among receivers.

Speaker 1 (36:45):
And I said Adams is interesting because Adams is thirty
seven on ECR, so he's the lowest of these wide
receivers from an ECR perspective, Mike Evans being the highest
of them. And you've got Evans at the bottom of
that list. Obviously you're Garrett Wilson guy So and he
just quick takes on Mike Evans.

Speaker 2 (37:00):
No, I mean, I don't hate Mike Evans. Again, I
just have him ranked there just because maybe I like
the upside case. I guess I'm willing to sacrifice the
safety of Evans again locked in loaded one thousand yard
receiver every single year, coming off such a career year
in terms of efficiency, But I do want to try
to chase a little bit of that ceiling with Garrett Wilson.
And again it's Mike Evans gonna stay healthy all year,

(37:21):
decent amount of target competition in Tampa Bay with Godwin,
the two young receivers from McMillan and at Guka coming
in as a first round pick. So and Evans to
his style, he does have a little boomer bust to
his game where he disappears for some time, but then
he blows up on a thirty point game, which especially
in redraft, I was thinking about it. He's one of
those guys where your opponent has him and you're like beat,

(37:41):
A sweat goes down your forehead. You're like, oh no,
not my guess does he have a thousand yards yet
of my safe? So I do like that, But from
a consistency standpoint, think Garrett Wilson. I mean, I think
he could see double digit targets every single week with
the Jets, So I just leaned towards the ceiling a
little bit more with him.

Speaker 1 (37:58):
All Right, it's not all rosy. So we'll see are
these two fine gentlemen wrong, because we are going to
focus on two wide receivers that you guys are lower
than ecr On and Pat. Let's jump over. Yeah, we'll
just jump over to yours here real quick, because the
name just jumps out to me, even though I think
we've started with you on the SAS one as well
is Rashee Rice. Rashee Rice comes in at forty three
wide receiver twenty on this list, and this is another

(38:20):
one of those where like, you've got him quite a
bit lower, so talk to us. He is outside of
the fifties. So I mean this is like a round
and a half, I guess difference if you want to
use it like that on the overall.

Speaker 3 (38:31):
So Rashee Rice, why are we out almost? Yeah, I've
got him at fifty eight overall. So right now, with
Rashie Rice at an ECR of forty three and Xavier
Worthy at fifty four, at least one of those guys
has to be a colossal disappointment at their current cost,
right I mean, maybe not if Patrick Mahomes goes back
to being a five thousand yard, forty touchdown quarterback like

(38:55):
he was in twenty twenty two. But Mahomes have done
closer to four thousand yard the last two years. Didn't
even reach four thousand last year, twenty seven TD passes
in twenty twenty three, twenty six last year. So I
would feel better about Rashie Rice as a fourth rounder
if Xavier Worthy didn't exist, or if Travis Kelcey had retired.

(39:16):
But I don't know when Rashi Rice really caught fire
in his rookie season late late November December and in
the big playoff game against Miami, he was getting nine
or ten targets pretty much every game. It's just hard
to see Rashi Rice consistently getting nine to ten targets
a game. Now that Xavier Worthy got really hot down
the stretch and with Travis Kelcey still around.

Speaker 2 (39:38):
It's kind of.

Speaker 1 (39:39):
Interesting though, because what did we call it all year?
We called it the Rashi Rice roll. You know, that
was the Rashi Rice role where it was like main
first target. And if I would presume he might kind
of jump back into that role. But to your point,
like Xavier Worthy is electric, though, they might try to
find some other outlets for him. Do you think do
you think Pat's rank is too low ericson on Rashi
Rice or do you think it's probably just right.

Speaker 2 (40:01):
No, I think that his rank is pretty spot on.
I think that Rashie Rice is ranked very aggressively. When
you just kind of take a step back, there's a
lot of ways where this goes wrong. The guy's coming
off a major knee injury, So during the ramp up
to the season, is he in practicing in the Rashi
Rice role if he's limited, Does that make a lot
of sense for the Chiefs to build their offense around

(40:22):
a guy who's coming off a major knee injury like that,
to me, seems like a little bit of a stretch.
When Xavier Worthy filled in so great, so is it
Worthy in the Rashie Race role to stark the year
and then they put Rice back into it to the
second half the year, but then Worthy takes on a
field stretcher role. It's like at this point, especially how
closely ranked those two guys are. I mean, you could
take the guy that was a first round pick, the
guy that flashed most recently, and the guy that's not

(40:44):
coming off major injury, and then the other guy is
also not facing potential suspension, you know, risk or whatever.
So although the suspension thing shouldn't affect Rashi Rice this year,
it's still just like another layerup. Is this guy like
dialed in?

Speaker 1 (40:56):
Like?

Speaker 2 (40:56):
Or is he a bonehead?

Speaker 1 (40:57):
Like?

Speaker 2 (40:57):
I don't really know. There's just like so many ways
the right doesn't work out versus the cost you have
to pay for him. At this ECR, it seems like
it's kind of ignoring those I want to get the
discount because of all the red flags that I just
mis mentioned. It's like, oh yeah, round four, it's like wait, wait,
that doesn't make it. That doesn't add up to me,
So yeah, I agree kind of being lower on Rashie Rice.

Speaker 1 (41:17):
There's a lot of like buzz about Roma Dunza that
everyone we want to get back in this is going
to be Roma Dunzay's year. Ericson. You are lower on
DJ Moore though he comes in at ECR thirty nine.
Not that I don't want to say you're out like
I would say that Fitz's uh Rashi Rice rank is
a little bit more exemplifying, like not like out, but
just like further back that you're probably not going to

(41:37):
have shares yours isn't quite that on DJ Moore, but
it's still significant enough to talk about where are you at?
Do you think it just Roma Dunza Sison and that's
why DJ Moore's down.

Speaker 2 (41:47):
I guess for me it's because the Bears are now
under Ben Johnson. I don't know exactly. Oh, I just
plug and play copying paste DJ Moore wide receiver one
from the past year or the past years that have
been he's been in Chicago. Because it's a new offense, right,
we don't know who's gonna play in the slot, like
that's gonna change. We talked about at the beginning of
the show, what's gonna move ADPs. Whoever Ben Johnson decides
you are my slot receiver is gonna dramatically shift ADPs

(42:11):
of these Bears wide receivers. So I think it's somewhat
telling that he gets hired as the head coach first
thing he does is draft two pass catchers in the
first two rounds of the NFL Draft. I think it's
a little telling about the guys he already has in
the building. But to the point of you saying that
I'm not super super low on DJ More is because
he's still a consistent producer, right. I find it hard
to believe unless he gets injured or just totally falls

(42:32):
out of favor with this new coaching staff, that at
the end of the day, he's probably end up being
a wide receiver two. Now he's kind of being drafted
in that range. So I think for me, it's I
don't see the wide receiver six ceiling with him like
we saw his first year with Justin Fields. I don't
think that's gonna happen with all those pass catchers in Chicago,
with potentially Ben Johnson looking at some of those other guys.
If anything, it's an indication and suggestion for those looking

(42:55):
at my rankings that I think I'd rather just take
a different Bears receiver at a cheaper price, because I'm
not so confident, at least with the market that DJ Moore's,
oh he's locked and load to be the number one guy.
I would assume that that's probably the best bet to make,
but not at this particular ECR. So again, I don't
think he's going to be a bust by any means,
but maybe underwhelm a little bit versus his ECR. That's

(43:16):
kind of my feeling.

Speaker 1 (43:17):
Pot What do you think about DJ Moore? Are you
in the same general space or are you around DCR
and DJ Moore.

Speaker 3 (43:22):
No, I'm right where Ericson is forty sixth overall, same ranking,
and like I love djmore way too much to be
completely out on him.

Speaker 4 (43:30):
It's more of a gentle fade for me.

Speaker 3 (43:32):
And it's less about the too many mouths to feed
thing than it is about DJ Moore and Caleb Williams
never really clicking last year and DJ Moore's demeanor just
being sort of strangely sour for a lot of the season.

Speaker 4 (43:45):
Just something about the vibe there that I don't love.

Speaker 3 (43:49):
And yeah, I'll have to get him in at least
one draft, but I'm probably not going to have a
lot of DJ Moore in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (43:57):
All right, let's move to our next grouping here. We
got forty six through sixty. We're going to start off
with Alvin Kamara coming in at forty six on the
Fantasy pros ECR, Chuba Hubbard, Joe Burrow, Cortland Sutton, James Connor,
Devonte Smith, Amaron Hampton at fifty two, Sam Laporta, Xavier
Worthy who we've been talking about, at fifty four, Dave Montgomery,
DK Metcalf, Jamison Williams, Chris Olave, Chris Godwin, and Aaron Jones.

(44:21):
That ends out your sixty interesting group in there, getting
a little bit more on the rookie running back side.
Get Amaron Hampton jumping up. But Pat, let's start with
Chuba Hubbard. Cuba comes in at forty seven. We know
there's no Brooks, we know there's just really nothing out there.
They want to press him even more. He's RB eighteen.
You've got him a little bit higher. His ECRs forty seven.

(44:42):
You have got him in the thirty range. Is Cuba
Hubbard going to be a massive target for you, knowing
that you know there's quite a decent separation between market
value and your and your own analysis on him.

Speaker 3 (44:54):
I think so Welsh, because I would be perfectly comfortable
taking him early in the fourth and he's going more
towards the late fourth.

Speaker 4 (45:01):
He was just really good.

Speaker 3 (45:02):
Last year four point eight yards per carry eleventh and
miss tackles forced, eighth in yards after contact per attempt
among running backs with at least one hundred carries, and
he was RB twelve last year and Fantasy points per
game half point PPR. So the Panthers just gave Hubbard
a four year, thirty three million dollar deal, even if
you just look at the guaranteed money, about sixteen point

(45:24):
five million, I mean, still a pretty lucrative deal for
an NFL running back. Contrasts that with the one year,
two point seventy five million dollar contract the Panthers just
gave Rico Dowdle. So I'm not worried about Dowell supplanting
Chuba Hubbard. I'm not too worried about fourth round draft
pick Trevor Etn, who never had a thousand yard season
in college, supplanting Cuba. I'm cautiously optimistic about the direction

(45:47):
of the Panthers offense under Dave Kanalis, and I really
like the Carolina offensive line. So yeah, I'm in on
Chewba Hubbard this year.

Speaker 1 (45:55):
Ericson Assuming that you're pretty on this, you're like in
a relative range where you like the rank. Maybe you're
at ACR a little bit above. Are you comfortable with
Cheba Hubbard as your RB one on your team if
he's coming at like a fourth ish round cost, let's say,
or even I guess top five. But if we say four,

(46:16):
presumably you've probably got three wide receivers already, or you've
got a tight end and three and two wide receivers.
Are you comfortable with him being your RB one on
a team like that or do you think it's more
of a necessity that he needs to be your RB
two so you've gone two wide outs and two running backs.

Speaker 2 (46:31):
Yeah, I think I would probably prefer him as my
RB two. I guess for me it's and I'm like
slightly lower than consensus, So I have him at fifty
one and he's forty seven for me. I do prefer
a lot of the receivers going in that range. So
traditionally I like to follow a hero RB approach, so
hopefully I already have my belcow running back by the

(46:53):
time Chuba Hubbard is even like available to pick in
rounds four, round five, and I really gravitate more towards
the wide receivers in this range or potentially an elite
tight end here because I probably have more concerns about
Rico Down because I think Rico Dadell, Again, Juba Hubber
is really good last year, so it is Rico Daddle
like that guy rushed for over a thousand yards and
basically didn't play for a significant part of the first
half of the season for the Cowboys until they're like,

(47:14):
oh yeah, this guy's really good, Like let's use him
on offense, and eventually they put him in the spearheading
the backfield. So I think that he is going to
get some decent run here. So that's the difference between
how I feel about Cuba Hubbard versus you know, like
a Chase Brown, where I really don't think Chase Brown
has big threats, where I do I just disagree with fits,
where I do think Dubdell might present a bigger threat

(47:35):
as the Panthers like they want to run the ball
like I think they want to use both guys and
make sure that Chuba Hubbard can stay functioning throughout the
entire season. So again, I have no qualms about where
he's ranked versus the other running backs, but I guess
I just gravitate towards the receivers a little bit more
in his range.

Speaker 1 (47:52):
Dodle feels like he could be annoying. I think he's
super annoying. He's gonna mess with stuff here. We did
just talk about this guy decent amount, so and you
can kind of blow through it a little bit or
give more of analysis since we did talk more on
the Rashi Rice range. But one of the guys you're
probably drafting instead of Cheba Hubbard is Xavier Worthy. You
mentioned you like some wide receivers in this range, And

(48:13):
the reason I think it is important to talk about
him a little bit more is you have him more
than a full round of higher than what his ECR
comes in at fifty four. You've got him at forty one,
So I mean that's significant enough. That would have been
I believe in the latter I know, I guess it
would have been. Yeah, it would have been like the
last discussion we were having, so talk to me about
Xavier Worthy and how much you need to have your

(48:36):
shares of him.

Speaker 2 (48:37):
I just really like Xavier Worthy. I liked him a
lot coming out of Texas, a super young prospect with
I think a really high ceiling, and I thought that, man,
could this be Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes like their
new like Deshaun Jackson type player. And that's not really
what we saw during his Brookie year, especially because we
talked about it. Took over the Rashie Rice role. But
if anything, he showed that he could be versatile and

(48:57):
used in a lot of different ways. So I I
feel good about him just long term because let's say
he doesn't get the Rashie Rice roll. Okay, well, he
can still be used as a vertical threat. They still
like use him on jet sweeps. We still don't really
know what this backfield's going to look like. Is it
going to be Pacheco? Is he gonna be healthy? Are
they going to use Preshard Smith? What about Kareem Hunt
rushing for three yards to carry and a cloud of dust?
So there's a lot of question marks about this offense.

(49:19):
But you know who does not really big question mark
about is Examber Worthy, Like that's the guy who blew
up in the second half of the year. He four
catches are more in ten straight games, six plus and
seven straight games he had over forty receiving yards and
all those contests twelve total touchdowns, nine receiving, three rushing
from Week eleven onwards two yards per rout run fourteen
point six fantasy points per game. And that's better. That

(49:41):
fourteen point six mark is better than Rashi Rice's production
from the first the second half of his rookie year
into the start of the twenty twenty four season, where
he was really effective for the first three weeks before
his knee injury. So I just think that Worthy's kind
of just being undervalued a little bit. I get that
he's a smaller wide receiver, doesn't really profile as an alpha,
but he's got my Home's trust, he's got Andy Reid's trust,

(50:03):
and I think that bodes well for him in his
future production. So look again, between Worthy and Rice, I'm
on the Worthy side here, and I know that ECR
doesn't necessarily agree with that, but that's just kind of
how I see the Chiefs receiver room.

Speaker 1 (50:14):
I want to get your rank on Worthy, Pat, because
we hadn't talked about that yet. But let me ask
you this question, and it may be the other side
of how I'm pushing it. Erickson says forty one overall unworthy.
If we compare that to ECR, this wide receiver is
lower forty five Marvin Harrison Junr. Who would you rather
worthy your Marvin Harrison Junior? And what's your rank unworthy?

Speaker 4 (50:32):
Marvin Harrison Junior?

Speaker 3 (50:34):
And I have Worthy, so like full fade on Rice
for me, I've gone him at fifty eight overall, which
is like more than a round past ECR.

Speaker 4 (50:43):
Worthy.

Speaker 3 (50:43):
I have at fifty five, so I'm like one higher
than ECR, you know, like I would rather have Worthy
than Rashid Rice. But it's just I don't know. I mean,
they drafted Jailen Royals, who a lot of people like,
they still have Hollywood Brown kicking around, they have Travis
Kelce like it's just messy. And remember early last season
when Worthy made a couple of big plays in the

(51:03):
opener against the Ravens on the you know, season debut
Thursday night opener, and we thought like, Okay, this is
it wheels up for Zave. If you're Worthy, then for
like the first half of the season, it's like, Okay,
where is this guy? And then he finally kicked it
in a high gear at the end of the season.
I guess it's easy to think that he's going to
continue to produce like he did in the back half
of the season.

Speaker 4 (51:24):
But I don't know.

Speaker 3 (51:24):
I just I worry that it's going to be pretty
messy in Kansas City with some of the pass catchers
this year.

Speaker 1 (51:29):
Slight follow up ericson Harrison or Worthy, I need to check.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
I need to consult the ranks because I don't want
to be lying. So what did your gut tell you
before you looked at the rains. Your gut's probably going
to be it's probably Worthy, but it's not. Actually it is, Marvin.
They're back to back though they're a handholding eighteen and nineteen.

Speaker 1 (51:46):
Okay, that's what I wanted to see.

Speaker 4 (51:48):
Pat.

Speaker 1 (51:48):
Let's go to this running back one. I think this
is interesting because you know, there's a lot of talk
about Jordan Mason and Minnesota, but Aaron Jones comes in
at ECR thirty and you've got him higher. You've got
him at fifty, So is it a touchdown equity thing
that keeps him there? Is it all about nothing? With
Jordan Mason coming in talk to us about Aaron Jones
and your higher rank of him in ECR.

Speaker 3 (52:10):
I put my money where my mouth as Welsh, I
just drafted Aaron Jones in a slow draft for my
first redraft league of the year, and like, I just
think he's a boring but very good value at his
end of the fifth round ECR, Yes, Jones is thirty now,
so there's some risk. But he just cranked out another
eleven hundred yard rushing season and he's played all seventeen

(52:32):
games in two of the last three years, So Jones
adds some value as a pass catcher. He's had fifty
plus receptions in three of the last four years, and
it might have been four or four if he had
missed six games in twenty twenty three. The Vikings upgraded
their offensive line in the offseason, and Kevin O'Connell is
a great play caller, so I think there's a lot
to like here. But you know, Jones is older and

(52:53):
maybe people are a little bored with him, so I
think he's going to be a value in drafts.

Speaker 1 (52:57):
Ericson are you an agreement here? Because I think you're
a Jordan Mason guy if I remember correctly, and he's
pretty interesting as far as someone your won't want to
pick up this year. Is it enough that you're going
to push Aaron Jones up at ECR? Where do you
stand on this?

Speaker 2 (53:10):
So? I have him right at ECR at sixty overall,
so I have no problem with where he's being ranked.
I'm definitely open to drafting Aaron Jones. It just for me,
it's like, would you rather take Aaron Jones at sixty
or Jordan Mason at one twenty? And I'm like, I'd
rather just take Jordan Mason at one to twenty because
I like both guys in terms of the scenarios, but
just I just like the value more with Jordan Mason

(53:31):
because I think that he could be the hammer at
the goal line and if that puts him over the
top scoring touchdowns, if his Viking offense is really effective
with the revamped offensive line, then I think Jordan Mason
could really benefit. Aaron Jones just so bad in the
red zone last year. Oh my god, I'm still losing
money on all this betting pro show betting on Aaron
Jones the score touchdown like he's still.

Speaker 1 (53:51):
Losing go back.

Speaker 4 (53:52):
It's a credit I do.

Speaker 3 (53:54):
I'm not a big handcuff guy, but I do think
Jordan Mason is like the most essential handcuff of the
twenty twenty five season.

Speaker 1 (54:00):
That's probably a good take. Final one in this range.
This is a wide receiver ericson that you seem pretty
out on, especially compared to ECR. This might be the
biggest differential at least that we've talked about yet. This
is over twenty spots lower. You have DeVante Smith versus ECR.
He's at fifty two. You've got him in the mid seventies.
So why do you hate Davonta Smith.

Speaker 2 (54:23):
I don't hate Davontae Smith, to be clear. It's just
a matter of how he scores his Fantasy points, and
he only scores fantas points when someone else is injured.
This happens every single year and every single year pointed
out Like guys, he doesn't score fatas point unless someone
gets hurt, and then, of course somebody always ends up
getting hurt. To my point, eight games with AJ Brown
and Dallas Goddard, including the postseason last year because again,

(54:43):
as we know, those guys both got injured last year
at different points. He averaged eight point three points per game.
That was wide receiver sixty three. Okay, But the other
half of the season, right the nine games that somebody
was not in the lineup fourteen point seven points per
game wide receiver eight. So clearly there is a reason
why he is ranked where he is. He's in he's
kind of middling this territory. But I just don't think

(55:05):
DeVante Smith has that ceiling unless someone gets hurt, which
has happened obviously in the past. But it's not something
that I like going into my draft knowing, Okay, I'm
draft Davonta Smith and then this guy's getting be hurt
and then I'm gonna feel good about playing him. I
would rather just draft someone that doesn't necessarily need that injury,
you know, out to access their potential ceiling. So for me,
it's like, I don't think Devanta Peth is going to

(55:25):
like bury me if I don't take him. So that's
why I have him ranked a little bit lower, just
because I know that when you can actually play him,
it's dependent on his teammates being available and not necessarily him,
and also to like the constraints of the Eagles offense.
Don't get me wrong, because I think he's a really
good like real life player, and if he was in
another offense like he could thrive. But the Eagles, I
just I just don't like his upside unless again, like

(55:47):
I pointed out, someone's gotta get hurt.

Speaker 1 (55:49):
It's actually fifty one. While I was on our list too,
I was saying fifty two. That was it moved in
the day FITZI, Jamison Williams or Devonte Smith. Williams comes
in in fifty seven. ECR has Smith higher.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
But what say you, I am looking at this now, well, Welsh,
I think I have DeVante Smith higher. And yes, that
is in fact the case by a pretty good amount, actually,
like more than a round for me. I just like
I think Davante Smith. I can't argue with Ericson's categorization
of it where he has done his best work when

(56:20):
someone else has been hurt. But he is one of
the best route runners in the game. He's averaged between
eleven point seven and twelve point seven half point PPR
Fantasy points per game in each of the last three years,
and he had a pretty good season on a per
game basis last year with the Eagles having this ridiculously
run heavy offense, the run heaviest offense in the league.

(56:42):
I don't think they can get any more run heavy
than they were last year. If they get more pass heavy,
that works to Devonte Smith's benefit. So I just I
think he's a really good player, and I want to
bet on talent.

Speaker 1 (56:53):
Eagles. Hold my beer. It's going to be just nothing
but running. Smith is going to turn into a running back.
That's that's where it's going to go. All right, a
final one here, Let's look at the final board. This
is sixty one through seventy five. It kicks off with
Baker Mayfield coming in by the way, QB six on ECR,
Tony Poler, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Wide receiver thirty one,
Jalen Waddle, TJ Hockinson, Trevion Henderson at RB twenty four,

(57:15):
Patrick Mahomes, R. J. Harvey, Grinch On Jenkins. We got
Teed McMillan, Jerry Judy, Isaiah Pacheco, DeAndre Swift, and George Picken.
Since we are at the end of the show, there's
some incredibly fun names out of this list. I'm going
to present you guys with your choice, or I'm going
to let you guys present your choice is a better
way to say it. Pick anybody out of this list.

(57:37):
I won't even set up off of the sheet. And Pat,
let's start with you. Who do you want to pick
out of this range that you were either like way
higher on or way lower on? Versus ECR TJ Hockkinson.

Speaker 3 (57:48):
What are we doing with Hockinson as a sixth rounder
in ECR, Like the Vikings have one of the two
or three best wide receiver combos in the league with
Justin Jefferson and the vastly underrated Jordan Addison. You know,
I'm not worried about JJ McCarthy, but the fact is
he's never taken an NFL snap in a regular season
game yet. Like, Hockinson's a good player, but he had
major knee surgery two years ago, and he's never had

(58:11):
more than six touchdowns in any NFL season. I just
cannot get on board with a sixth round ECR for him.
I'd rather just wait, like several rounds later and get
the same level of production, if not better from zach Ertz.

Speaker 1 (58:24):
Overall rankings really start to open up. Also, I think
you can do a whole episode on like how you
approach and really care about overall rankings. Whether I've done
this conversation in Baseball ranking talks, Football kind of has
the same thing. There's a point where you just kind
of stop caring about what an overall is in positional
ranks become more important. So we can take a little

(58:44):
less time because this opens up so much. But there
are some fascinating names on this list, ericson with so
many rookies, there's some wide receivers that pop. There's a
lot of different directions that you can go, but higher
or lower, what's one player you want to highlight out
of this sixty to seven twenty five overall rank.

Speaker 2 (59:01):
So I'm sticking with the vikings here, and so I'm
gonna go with the other side, Jordan Aison. So I
should probably also move T. J. Hawkinson down, But I
just don't want to be overly confident that JJ McCarthy
is gonna come in and just do exactly what Sam
Darnold did. Like I get that there's an upside case
with him that he can do that, but I don't
want it to be just what I'm drafting a player

(59:22):
to do. I need there to be some leeway in
case he doesn't fire away. What if, again, we just
talk about the running backs, what if they like to
run the ball a little bit more as they get
their young quarterback accumulated, getting snaps under center, getting him
back in the rhythm of playing NFL football because he's
been out the entire year. So that's my concern with
any vikings, even justin Jefferson to an extent where it's
like it's a bran new quarterback, like we're just gonna
do it all again. Like it's hard for these guys

(59:44):
to just every single year overcome potential quarterback issues. So
for me, Jordan Addison, especially last year, again you saw
sub twenty percent target share. When Hawkinson came back weeks
one through eight, he had a seventy percent target share,
averaging under nine fantasy points per game. He's scored eight
touchdowns from Week nine onward, so we had a lot
of touchdown production. What if they're running the ball more

(01:00:06):
on the red zone. What if j McCarthy doesn't throw
as many touch as to Sam Donald it a year ago.
And then to add another point with Addison, he also
might get suspended this year, Like, don't forget about that.
Like he has an issue off the field where it
didn't get happen. It didn't happen last year, but he
could face a one of three games suspension because of
the DUI think that ended up happening to him last
off season. So these are the things I'm trying to
point out. Remember, it's like, yes, Jefferson okay, but the

(01:00:29):
other two guys, I just would rather have someone else
take them. So I'm gonna move Hawkinson down and I'm
probably out on Jordan Adison too.

Speaker 1 (01:00:35):
What do the overall ranks have right and what do
they have wrong? You can drop it in the comments below.
If you were on the YouTube, of course, you can
check us out. If you're listening on the podcast side
YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros, we want to hear
from you. What did these guys get especially, what did
these guys get right? Don't be hating, but probably going
to anyways, but what did we get right? What did

(01:00:56):
we get wrong? It's never too early for ranks. That's
why you go to Fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Check
all the different formats. You can see how it moves
the best ranking, the worst ranking, the average difference. There's
so much really cool, fun information, and then you can
even see where each analyst is. I think there's already
like fifty plus rankers that are on there, so ECR
is a really really good representation of some of the

(01:01:18):
early ranks. Thank you guys so much for hanging out
with us. Great discussion on the overall ranks. That is
Andrew Ericson and Pat Fitzmorris. I'm Chris Welsh and we
will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
Bye friends, thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy
Football podcast.

Speaker 5 (01:01:34):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts
at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.

Speaker 3 (01:01:43):
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Speaker 5 (01:01:47):
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FantasyPros - ARE THE RANKINGS WRONG? | Top 75 Overall Player Rankings & Impact (Ep. 1571)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}FantasyPros - ARE THE RANKINGS WRONG? | Top 75 Overall Player Rankings & Impact (Ep. 1571)