FantasyPros - DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I
am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by
Tom Strachan. We are recording later than usual really for
all three of us here as we sit here in
the middle of the middle of late May now at
this point getting one step closer to the fantasy football season.
We're talking some overvalue players today.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Ericson how are you doing.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
I'm doing good. I'm excited. We're getting Tom here from
the future. It is tomorrow where Tom is recording, so
that's a lot of fun. So I'm hoping that with
Tom's ability to be a time traveler, we can get
some great insight on some of these overvalue players because
Tom exactly knows how it's going to play out.

Speaker 1 (00:40):
Tom, we appreciate you going through the difficulty of inventing
time travel just to help us out.

Speaker 4 (00:46):
You guys will not believe the crazy things that are
going to happen to you in the five hours that
have gone by since it hit midnight in my country
till it hits midnight in your country.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
Fair awarding for everybody who's watching on YouTube. Given the
time of day that we're recording this, it's right when
the sun sets in front of my window. So there's
a chance I get blasted and get some sunburn here blinded.

Speaker 2 (01:07):
By the light.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
When we're recording later on in this episode, we'll see
how quickly we get out of here. Like I said,
we're talking about some overvalued players here for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
Quick reminder for everybody. All of our twenty.

Speaker 1 (01:17):
Twenty five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at
fantasypros dot com slash rankings.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
Each of you picked six players here.

Speaker 1 (01:25):
There's no real designation as far as positions go or anything,
just kind of we want to get a couple of
early round players, we want to get some mid round players.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
We have one kind of later round player each.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Obviously it's hard to be overvalued when you're going that late,
but maybe some sleepers that were not necessarily buying into ericson.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
You went really wide receiver heavy.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
I think, did you do all receivers or no one
running back in the rest receivers?

Speaker 3 (01:47):
Yeah, I did multi wide receivers. I did do the
Fantasy Pros wide receiver notes, So the wide receiver numbers
were kind of fresh in my mind, and that's kind
of where I settled here, So yeah, it did include
at least one running back. Also, to be fair to
did beat me to the sheet, and he took all
the good running backs. So I love of the running backs.
I actually will agree with when Tom breaks down why
they're overvalued.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
Tom is definitely more running back heavy in his picks,
and he did get to the sheet. First, let's get
us started with one of those receivers here, Eric and
we're gonna start off with the guys that are kind
of these early round overvalue players. And the way we're
defining that is just anybody who's in the top thirty
six overall of the current half PPR rankings consensus rankings
that is, and again fantasypros dot Com slash rankings if

(02:29):
you want to follow along with those players.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
Yeah. So my first guys, I'm on Ross Saint Brown
wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. My wide receiver rankings
just got posted up on x and he is my
wide receiver nine. And everybody hates me in the comments
because I'm dating the Sun God, but that's just how
I feel. So there's a couple of reasons why I
think that he's overvalued at his current ADP, so he's
being drafted eighth overall, so that's where his ECR is.

(02:52):
And we look at some early season projections. I've used
the Fantasy pros ones Mike Clay's projections, which are also
very very good from the industry standard, So his projections
haven't cool to sixteenth overall when you're looking at just
flex rankings between running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.
And I think there's a reason for that, and it's
because of the target competition in Detroit I think is

(03:13):
increasing compared to last year. Last year, we didn't know
what Jameson Williams was going to be. We we weren't
sure if he was like not a bust. But he
showed out and he was really productive when he was
when he was healthy, when he wasn't suspended. And over
the second half of the season, we saw amaras Saint
Brown's target chair dip from twenty seven percent to twenty
three percent over the final seven games as Jamison Williams

(03:36):
and Sam Laporta were more involved in the offense. They
were spreading the ball out a lot more than just
focusing on the sun God. And there's only one game
really where Saint Brown just completely dominated the targets over
Jameson Williams, which was that eighteen target game against Buffalo
Bills in week fifteen. If you move that from the equation,
their target share is nearly identical in all the other games.

(03:57):
You know, one week it's Jamison, the other week it's
now amarras Sam Brown. Now, I can't just take away
that one game had happened. So I'm not trying to
discredit I'm on Ross Saint Brown, but I'm just pointing
out the fact that the targets I think, are getting
much closer in twenty twenty five than they were in
twenty twenty four, especially when you consider it's a new
offensive couiding or coming in will We are so excited

(04:18):
about finding that slot receiver for the Chicago Bears, but
we're not thinking about what does that have to effect
on the Lions offense in twenty twenty five. Is it
as centered around the Sun God as it's been without
Ben Johnson calling the shots as the OC. So those
are some of the reasons why I just think that
he's a little bit over valuable. He still finishes a
wide receiver one most likely without any type of injury,
but I think he might actually be more in the

(04:39):
lower tier of wide receiver ten to twelve as opposed
to in that top eight overall players at receiver and
running back.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Tom What do you think about this one?

Speaker 1 (04:49):
For me? I feel like I feel like if I'm
making Amen ram My pick in the first round, I
don't know that I'm feeling super great about it, like
just giving like Ben Johnson not being there, some of
the targets of Erics' is laying out. If he was
like an early second round pick, I would still be
like pretty thrilled about that, I think, but I don't
think he's going to get there in most drafts. How
are you approaching Saint Brown? Do you agree that he's
overvalued right now?

Speaker 4 (05:10):
I'm not really there. I think that, like I'm not
against a Monra as much as Andrew and yourself. Maybe
I'm more out on James and Williams feels so much
more volatile, and the price that you've got to pay
for him, like thirty five picks later than a Monra.
That just feels too expensive. Like I look at Jamo
and for all that he closed the gap last year,

(05:31):
he only had two games over a twenty two percent
target share. Meanwhile, you've got a monra who had ten
games over eighteen PPR points in twenty twenty four. His
touchdowns have grown in each of his four seasons in
the NFL, ten the previous year, twelve last year. And
while we don't want to count on touchdown production year
to year, particularly whether it's new offensive coordinator, I just
think it shows that his role is fairly established. He

(05:54):
had over sixty receptions, more than Sam La Porter and
Jamo last year. Like there's just two more much reliability
in what were sitting from a mom Roff maybe fading him.
I get what Andrew's saying, but I think I'm still
not quite ready to fade him at this point.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
Eric's in the next eight names in the overall half
VPR rankings after Amenra are Molik, Neighbors, Ashton Gents, Nico Collins,
Brian Thomas, Junior, Derrick Henry, Devon, ah Chan, Brock Bauers,
and Christian McCaffrey. Do you want any of those guys?
Do you want all those players ahead of Saint Brown?
Or are there some that you would still take Comanrae
ahead of I'd have.

Speaker 3 (06:29):
To pull my exact ranks to give you the rundown.
I mean I think that it's again you listen off
the next eight guys. I think that it's probably taking
mostly all those guys over. I mean, he's my wide receiver.
I like I said, so I'd have to look exactly
at my rankings. But for the most part, I mean, look,
I'm just not gonna draft st Brown this year. And again,
he's a son God. I could get totally burned and
totally cooked by him as he's done year after year,

(06:51):
But I just think that the price is more about
last year, not projecting. I mean, I think I just
think Jameson is gonna be a thing, like, this guy's
a first round pick, he's fully healthy, the suspensions are
all behind him, and yo, see the first thing he
says in the offseason this year breakout year for Jamison Williams,
And I'm thinking, wait, didn't we just have this happen
last year? So if he takes another step forward, then

(07:11):
I think that's gonna eat into into the sun. God.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
So I mean, I think it's also fair to just
be worried in the sense of like Jared Goff has
never been good when he didn't have an elite play caller,
and I think he is a better quarterback now than
he was early on in his career. Like, I'm not
here to fade Goff, but it's just enough for me
to say, well, maybe I look elsewhere than the guy
who's been his top target but may not even be
his clear cut top target anymore. So I think it's

(07:37):
a fair pick, even though I'm not surprised people strongly
disagreed with the opposed.

Speaker 3 (07:41):
I mean, people are always gonna disagree when you're picking
guys in the first round, right, But yeah, again, not
everyone's getting a hit, and obviously when guys get hurt,
they obviously don't live up to their ADP.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah, Tom, let's go to your first pick a running
back here.

Speaker 4 (07:54):
Yeah, and it's Jonathan Taylor. A lot of it just
comes back to overall confidence level in the Colt Like
this time last year, I felt quite okay drafting Anthony Richardson,
I felt quite okay drafting Josh Downs, and I felt
okay about the Colts offense in general, and they were
just a complete disappointment despite the fact that they had
a very soft division. I think it wouldn't be surprising

(08:14):
to see the division improved slightly this year. If that
takes out of more neutral scripts where we're able to
run the ball and control things a bit, then that
could be a slight thing on Jonathan Taylor. This offense
last year wasn't a good offense. Fourteenth in runoffense DVOA,
twenty third in pass offense DVA. Forty two percent of
Jonathan Taylor's points came in three performances last year. Two

(08:37):
of those three were in week sixteen and seventeen. So
if you had Jonathan Taylor and you made it to
the semifinals or the finals of any fantasy tournament, then
you're in good stead. But I just don't think that
you were making it there with Jonathan Taylor very often.
He was RB or fourteen or RB fourteen or worse
in seven of thirteen games last year. Currently being drafted
as the RB ten. I just think that's too steep

(08:59):
of ace to pay for him, Like when you look
back at how he was actually performing for the vast
majority of last season. Weeks one to thirteen, ranked third
among al running backs for one hundred plus carries and
stuffed run rate. Now, not all of that is always
on the running back, but it didn't feel overly impressive
until he had those massive blow up weeks at the end.

(09:19):
And look, I also just really like DJ Giddens in
the draft. So there's just a number of factors. But
for me, I've got Jonathan Taylor down at RB fifteen,
and if fell a few spots, I'd start to feel
a lot more comfortable about it.

Speaker 2 (09:32):
Yeah, this is an interesting one.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
A lot of the names that you guys put into
the sheet I am largely agreeing with. This is one
where I'm not saying I'm above consensus on Taylor, but
I think I'm comfortable with where he's going, Like if
I can get him in the mid to late second round.
He's currently the twentieth overall player, so maybe he's a
little high at running back, but as far as the
overall names in that range, I think I'd be comfortable

(09:56):
with that, especially if I'm getting a really strong receiver,
like in the middle of round one. I think I'd
be okay with Taylor and round too. Ericson, I'm curious
what you think about this one.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
Yeah, so I'm more in line kind of. I have
him ranked where ECR has him ranked, so I kind
of agree with you. Whorm where I'm comfortable taking him,
but as Tom outlines the potential flaws, it just seems
like there's a lot that could drag Jonathan Taylor down
then for us to get Oh, we're really excited about him,
Like I think he goes similar to Bucky Irby. I
know Derek Deebrow is really high on Bucky Irving. We

(10:27):
were excited about drafty Bucky Irby, Right, he's a second
ear guy, gonna take this massive leap. We don't care
about Rashad White, But then Jonathan Taylor, it's he's trying
to hold on to what he could do in this
offense where we have concerns about the offense. If you
other the Colts wide receiver, you can get a cheap discount,
but you don't really get a massive discount with Jonathan Taylor.
Despite all the question marks about who this is going

(10:49):
to be the starting quarterback? What's the offensive line going
to look like now that they've traded or they got
rid of half their interior and is now in Minnesota.
I know we talked about this on The Running Back Show.
Is Jonathan Taylor maxed out at rbtel Is that his
ceiling finished? Because we know he doesn't really catch passes,
so that's an issue when it comes to half PPR
and PPR formats, and if the offense struggles or is

(11:10):
in a below average scoring unit, well where's the red
zone opportunities for Jonathan Taylor? And so yes, I think
that maybe he can finish where he's being drafted, but
it feels like it's closer to his potential ceiling with
all the issues that Tom outlined, and that's kind of
why I could see him being overvalued here. And so yeah,
that's kind of my take on it.

Speaker 2 (11:31):
That's fair.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
I think I just don't really like the back half
of the second round this year very much. So that's
why I'm comfortable with Taylor being But I'm like, looking
at the names he's sandwiched between Jacobs and Bucky Irving,
I don't think that's unreasonable. I do like Lad mcconkiy,
who's right after those guys. Then there's like Trede McBride.
I don't know if I'm taking a tight end early.
If it's not Brock Bauers, Josh Allen, I'm not going
to be the guy taking the QB in the second round.

(11:52):
Kyrin Williams we're going to talk about later on the show. Lamar,
like JSN is a mid second round pick.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
I like him.

Speaker 1 (11:58):
There's just a lot of names where I'm like, you
know what, I'm okay, just like taking a sing on
Jonathan Taylor here, what rout?

Speaker 3 (12:04):
Not?

Speaker 1 (12:04):
Where is he ranked tom amongst running backs for you?
But where in the draft are you comfortable taking Taylor
in terms of like late second, early third?

Speaker 2 (12:11):
Is that what you're hoping to do?

Speaker 4 (12:12):
Yeah, So if I can get him on the two
free turn, like if I could pa him with Jamar
Chase or you know that sort of one oh two slot,
I think that's completely fine if I'm getting him there, because,
as you say, as you start to get towards the
third round, there's quite a few more question marks, and
perhaps it was last year. If I could pare him,
you know again, like the CV Lamb, I'd be okay

(12:33):
with it. I just need to feel really secure in
my first round pick. And towards the back half of
the first rounds of a minute, there are some guys
that we have question mark beause I'm okay with a
mom rascing Brown, but you look at elite neighbors and
you're talking about qv issues. You talk about Ashton Genty
and we are still talking about a rookie who can
occur and you can question Matthew Stafford. So really I'd
like to push him up to those first round talents

(12:54):
that I feel a bit more secure about to be
willing to take a chance on Jonathan Taylor because of reasons.

Speaker 1 (12:59):
I'm meant, one guy that we are not saying is
overvalue today's Nico Collins. And if you want a chance
to win a signed Nico Collins Texans jersey for free
courtesy of our friends at Pristineauction dot com, all you
have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube
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and that is it will be announcing a winner right
here on the channel. So make sure to turn on

(13:20):
those notifications so you can know when new videos are
up and to claim your prize. We've got one more
each of the early round overvalued players.

Speaker 2 (13:28):
Ericson who you.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Got tyry Keil, wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins. I
want no part of Tyreek kel I think that he
is vastly overrated here as a top thirty six overall player.
Last year he was wide receiver thirty three points per game,
and when Tua was healthy, he was still just wide
receiver eighteen in points per game. So we saw the
sharp decline in terms of efficiency. His yards per route

(13:50):
run plummeted to one point seventy five, which was nearly
half of his twenty twenty three mark. Now, he was
coming off a monster number, so even one point seventy
five is really not that bad, but just compared to
what he was doing before in this offense, it's a
pretty steep. It's eye opening of how badly things got
for him even when Tua was still or in the
games that Tua played, because then we all know that

(14:11):
Miami had a ton of quarterback issues and Jalen Waddle
also suffered a lot of lack of production because of it.
But I just think there's so many red flags receivers.
I don't think get better with age. We saw this
with Cooper cup right, he starts to fall off a
little bit, Michael Thomas, he starts to fall off a
little bit. Now those guys a little bit more injury related,
but still Tyreek kill a guy that's always relied on
I'm the fastest guy on the field. Well, if he's

(14:34):
starting to lose a step here or there, I think
that starts to really matter. He's going to be thirty one.
He is thirty one years old this year. We've already
seen some of the decline when it comes to the
efficiency numbers. We had him dealing with this wrist injury
all last year. Is that going to have a lingering
effect on him as he goes into twenty twenty five?
And then you have where does he stand in Miami's
future plans? Like what is Miami doing? Is Miami a

(14:56):
potential dumpster fire this year? On offense? Where is Terry
Kelly even on the wrong Now, that's ultimately gonna be
the reason why we get cooked here because Stariko is
gonna up going back to the Chiefs and he's gonna
be amazing, and that's why he's gonna be a hit.
But right now, drafting him as a top thirty six
overall player, I just want no part of of drafting
Cowrie Hill.

Speaker 1 (15:14):
He wasn't going in the the you know as late
as he is now a year ago. But everything you
just laid out is everything I said a year ago
about why I was fading Tyreek Hill, you know into
his thirties now, a guy who relies on speed, I'm
not confident into a staying healthy. And I know it
wasn't entirely Hill's fault that that I ended up being
kind of correct on fading him, but it was correct

(15:35):
and a lot of those same reasons still exist. I mean,
he had he had one hundred and thirty yards in
Week one last year was his best week of the
entire season from Week two on, and he only topped
one hundred receiving yards once last year, like it was
not And again, quarterback issues of course, wrist issues of course,
but he you don't get healthier with age, you don't
get faster with age, and the quarterback staying healthy is

(15:57):
going to be a concern as long as Tua is
the starting coresquarterback, as disappointing as that is, So this
might be the one I most agree with either of
you on this entire episode. I could not be more
in lockstep with you, Eric Sanatariko. There is no chance
I'll be drafting him in any third round this year.

Speaker 2 (16:14):
Tom, what do you think?

Speaker 4 (16:15):
Yeah, I'm right there with you, guys. This was such
an easy one because the volume just wasn't there. Last year.
You know, you talked about like the yardage wasn't there,
but he only had two games where he had more
than seven receptions. Tyreek Kill used to earn targets at
such a high rate. The Dolphins don't seem to need
him in the same way that they used to. Maybe
about changes if John Drew Smith gets traded and all
of a sudden they don't have that checkdown outlet that

(16:37):
they seem to use John Y Smith for so much
last year. But his yards per reception last year was
this only the second time it's been below to twelve
in his entire career. His yards after the catch per
reception was by far a career worst at three point
six join Lowes's touchdown output of his career. And I
just think that what we're seeing as a wide receiver
in decline, like Andrew said Dwayne following the Fantasy left

(17:01):
and some fantastic research and wide receivers going off for
Cliff Edge at age fade one, and I just think
that Tyreek Hill is not going to be the same
guy we ever saw him be a couple of years ago.
And for me, I've got him down right around player
thirty five. I think in my rankings, and I could
really see myself dropping him more and bringing Jalen Waddle up.

Speaker 1 (17:20):
I'm looking at some of these other receiver names that
are currently ranked after Tyreek Kill, Terry McLaurin, I would
rather have him, Garrett Wilson, I would rather have him,
Deavante Adams, I would rather have him, even getting further down,
I might rather just take the upside shown him Morvin
Harrison Junior than Tyreek Kill, even coming off of last year.
Like I just, I will not be drafting Tyreek unless
his price goes way down. I think, just based on

(17:42):
the name value, that's not gonna happen.

Speaker 3 (17:44):
Would you rather have him or Jalen Waddle?

Speaker 1 (17:47):
I would rather have Wattle, I mean, particularly at their
cost it will take to get him.

Speaker 3 (17:51):
But I mean, like, imagine if if Hill falls and
then you're looking at the more and it's Hill and
Waddle as the top two guys, who are you going
to click?

Speaker 1 (18:01):
I I think I will be ranking Tyreek higher than
Waddle in my life.

Speaker 3 (18:08):
Are you gonna click?

Speaker 2 (18:09):
I would probably click Wattle.

Speaker 1 (18:11):
Honestly, I'm willing to plant my flag on that dick
like I think will be better than the Hill.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
This season.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
The line for me when I was looking how far
if I was taking ADP out of it, how far
would I drop Hill? It comes to Jameson Williams, right
between Tavonta Smith and Jamison Williams. That's the volatility that
I think that we're going to end up on, and
that's the kind of headache that it gives me. And
right now I'm just in a holding pattern and just
kind of ignoring it because the ADP is still high.
But any reason I have to drop him and it'll

(18:38):
be plumbing.

Speaker 1 (18:40):
We agree to emphatically on this, so I'm sure we're
gonna get burned, but we are definitely all in lockstep
on Tyreek Hill. Tom, who's your last early round overvalue player?

Speaker 4 (18:50):
Yeah, and it's Karen Williams. And I take no joy
in this because Karen Williams last year, when people were
fading him, I was very much in on him. It's
the second straight year that RAMS drafted a rookie, which
is probably a smart thing to be doing an investing
draft capital in the position, but it's also not a
ringing endorsement on Karen Williams. Last year he averaged eighty
one rushing yards per game in twenty twenty four that

(19:11):
was fourth among running backs, but he also fumbled the
ball three times, ranked thirty fifth in juke rate amongst
running backs with one hundred plus carries, and I think
what we're going to see is a slight shift away
from the running game with the addition of Devonte Adams.
Like Puka and Akua, for all this brilliance, isn't a
great touchdown score He's only combined across the last two

(19:32):
seasons to score nine touchdowns. Cooper Cup's regression was massively clear,
whereas DeVante Adams is still a really good red zone player.
I think that we're going to see some excellent connection
between him and Matthew Stafford. And if that digs into
Karen Williams touchdown upside, then Karen Williams just can't really
afford that. Like Stafford wasn't a great fantasy option last

(19:53):
year because he wasn't throwing touchdowns. He only threw more
than one touchdown. I think that he failed to throw
from more than one touchdown on in ten of his
sixteen games. And I think the Rams want to get
that passing game going more. And if that dings Karen
at the same time that we've got these two young
players behind him, and he's also slightly inefficient. I just

(20:13):
can't build myself an argument on why I should be
drafting Karen Williams as he slips into what we know
is running back dead zone, which looks more dead this
year than it did last year.

Speaker 1 (20:24):
The only reason I'm afraid to fade Karen Williams is
because I faded him a year ago and it burned me,
and I am just emotionally not ready to go through
that again. But I agree with this pick. And I
was citty here a year ago saying I'm not taking
Kyle Williams where he's going. And it's going a little
later this year, but still, you know, hi, And I

(20:48):
find myself thinking all the things I did a year ago,
except for I had this year where it burned me.

Speaker 2 (20:52):
So ericson what do you make of Kien Williams worm The.

Speaker 3 (20:54):
Thing is Tom is a person that's coming to the
table saying he drafted Karen last year, and he's like, no,
like the ride is over because I faded Karen too
and I was totally wrong. But this year, no, Now
even the supporters of Kien are now fading Kien Williams.
So I think that's a good thing to bring up
because I think the argument is just better and stronger
this year. Now there's two potential rookie running backs that

(21:15):
are two running backs behind Kiren that we could see
potentially taking on a larger role. A lot of the
coach speak this offseason has been about Sean McVay duplicating
what Liam Cohen did in Tampa Bay where they were
using up to three running backs in games. It wasn't
just one guy.

Speaker 4 (21:31):
I know.

Speaker 3 (21:31):
We've also made the argument about fading Saquon Barkley when
it comes to the volume and touches that he saw
last year, well right behind him was Kien Williams, So
basically he was second in touches, in second in it
was actually first inn rby snapshare. But when you look
at the running backs that face planted the biggest in
twenty twenty four, three of those guys were Christian McCaffrey,

(21:52):
Travis etn Raseean White. What do they all have in common?
They ranked one, two, and three in terms of total
touches the year before, so just chasing the high of
that volume monster. And when Tom pointed out the efficiency
wasn't there for him last year, Like he showed signs
of he's not breaking as many tackles, he's not getting
as many yards after contact. You know who. He actually
looked like a lot when it came to his efficiency

(22:14):
as a rusher. Naji Harris, that's what he looked like
a lot when you just look at some of those
advance metrics and nobody is staking their claimer. You got
to get Naji Harris. He's going to be a great
running back that you're going to build your offense around.
So I think that Kiren projects again. We like him
because of the projection. If you look at some of
the projections on the site, he's tenth in projection. So
that's why I see you're afraid where I'm like, oh man,

(22:36):
what a Sean mcgraye just does it again. He just
gives them all the touches. But if he doesn't, then
Kyen is going to be a bust and he's going
to kill your lineup. So I'm with Tom here much
much lower on Kiren. I know it feels like roundhog Day.
He's doing the same thing over and over, man, But uh,
I think this time it's gonna work out.

Speaker 2 (22:53):
Let's go to our mid round mistakes.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
This is kind of guys there in rounds four to
eight overall, So that's roughly the range where looking four
here ericson who do you think is overvalued in this range.

Speaker 3 (23:04):
I'm gonna go with DJ Moore, wide receiver for the
Chicago Bears last year. I don't want to get I
don't need to get two in the weeds with it,
because we know the Bears offense was really dysfunctional, but
he was wide receiver sixteen overall wide receiver thirty two
in points per game, really booyed by a lot of
that volume, especially at the end of the year where
he took on this very low average depth of target
is basically the bubble screen king, getting a ton of

(23:25):
receptions but not really much yardage. Again, career low yards
per route run twenty five percent bus rate that tie
for the third worst among wide receivers that finished inside
the top twenty four And I have legitimate questions about
how he fits into this new offense with Ben Johnson.
So he is right now drafted as the Bears wide
receiver one. But I just think that the value proposition
of just betting O yeap Djmore is going to continue

(23:46):
to just be the wide receiver one when I don't
think it's I don't think it's a going crazy saying that,
did you more like a true alpha number one wide receiver?
I don't really think I would describe that as his
game like, he's a good, very good wide receiver, and
he popped in a big way with justin fields, but
a lot of that in that season was him having
a couple monster games here and there, creating the yards

(24:08):
after the catch, taking advantage of bad defenses. And yes,
he can be a productive player. So I'm not ready
to call Djmore a total bust, which is why I
felt he was more overvalued, because when I look at
the Bears roster, I feel like I like the value
propositions on a Romadunze, on a Luther Burd just much
later in the draft, betting on well, what if Ben
Jonson decides to know this is the guy I want
to build my offense through. When you look at DJ

(24:29):
Moore outside that wide receiver six finished in twenty twenty three,
He's never finished inside the top fifteen wide receivers in
any other season that he's played and been healthy for.
So if I fade him. The worst thing is probably okay,
he'll be a top fifteen or he'll be right at
the cusp of mid range fantasy wide receiver too, Like
I'm okay skipping on that. Whereas if I'm right about
Odoonza or Luther Burden hitting as the new wide receiver

(24:52):
one in this offense, well that's going to be a
league winning pick Versus DJ Moore, where I feel like,
maybe at best, like I'm hitting a double.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
I feel like, for a guy who has not been
worse than wide receiver twenty two in any year since
his rookie season in twenty eighteen, that the floor is
low for DJ Moore despite the fact that he has
had a very high floor in the past.

Speaker 2 (25:15):
Now, a lot of that is not missing games.

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Obviously, that's overall finished, not weekly per game finish that number.

Speaker 2 (25:22):
And I think to that point, the fact that last year.

Speaker 1 (25:26):
He did not have one hundred catches, he did not
reach a thousand yards excuse me, and he only had
six receiving touchdowns, his yards perception was under ten for
the first time in his career, and he still finished
wide receiver sixteen. I think that says more about the
state of the position last season than it does about
Dj Moore, you know, being a top sixteen receiver in
terms of fantasy value he gave to your team.

Speaker 2 (25:46):
And I agree with you.

Speaker 1 (25:47):
I think there's like every chance, Like I'm huge on
Roman Dunesday, I think there's every chance he could, you know,
take a step forward and be the alpha in this offense.
I like Luther Burden, Like we you know, we see
it all the time when there's a new coach and
if it's not a guy that they drafted, those guys
tend to fall off. Whether we agree with that decision
or not. I'm surprised Dj Moore is. And again this

(26:10):
is kind of weird to say for a guy who
has had a high floor in terms of his overall
finishes for several years. But I'm surprised that he is
even ranked as high as he is.

Speaker 5 (26:17):
Truthfully, he has something too, the like the chemistry Kay
Williams just like never like it seemed like Dj Moore
was an advocate for fields like that seemed like that
was a legitimate thing and that's when he was better.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
He was better with justin fields than Caleb Williams. Again,
Calbolle was a rookie and is a little bit different,
But yeah, like is that chemistry there, Like, who's to
say Caleb's not gonna lean more on a Doonesday, lean
more on Luther Burden. So I just for those reasons,
Like I just I like the value more with these
other Bears players. Tom, I'm not sure how you feel.

Speaker 4 (26:44):
Yeah, I'm kind of neutral on Dj Moore. I think
the price you know, on the Doug Best Bullies going
out wide receiver twenty three, which kind of feels quite
palatable to me for the reasons, but Worm laid out.
You know, this is a guy who doesn't tend to
fail spectacularly. But the point you make Andrew about the
lack of chemistry with Caleb Williams definitely feels noteworthy. Like

(27:07):
it felt like Keenan Allen had slightly better chemistry last
year and he was getting those kind of layups to
the slot that made it so much easier for Keenan
Allen to produce down the stretch. Roman Dunzie didn't do much,
but obviously the potential is massive there. Luther Burnon quite
volatile as a prospect, and I do like Colston Lovelin,
like he was my tight end one going into the draft.

(27:28):
But I still think that what we get out of
Dj Moore is probably a player who's going to be
playing into wide receiver sets, and if he's on the field,
I think that he's got a good chance to still
earn enough targets to be relevant. I mean, last year
he finished ninth with my wide receiver in targets, and
he's in a range of a minute between Travis Hunter
and Tech McMillan, where I think it's quite easy to say, Okay,

(27:53):
can I see this veteran Dj Moore having a better
season than Travis Hunter and Tech McMillan. It's quite easy
to tell yourself a story there that the veteran ends
up doing better. If you want to shoot for upside,
then by all means go with the rookies who undeniably
have that unknown. But I think I'm just kind of
okay with it. He's not a player that I'd want

(28:13):
on every roster I draft this offseason, But he's not
a player that I'm marking way down in my rankings.
But I don't see him.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
Tom, Let's stick with you for your next pick.

Speaker 4 (28:25):
Yeah, so my next pick is another running back. I mean,
it's probably not a surprise for somebody who's a big
zero RB guy. But James Cook is somebody that I'm
really struggling with. You know, the contract issues continuing to
linger visa Bills or Bills team that went into the
offseason and was so proactive in re signing players who

(28:45):
they wanted to get on to better contracts. Cook coming
off leading all players in touchdowns scored last year seventeen,
like that should be a player that a team really
wants to sign, but it just doesn't seem like the
Bills are willing to give him the kind of money
that he wants. He's been quite vocal about wanting a good,
high end deal and Cook that season it feels like

(29:07):
quite an outlier. You know, he only had nine touchdowns
in the previous two seasons combined. He was massively reliant
on those touchdowns through his scoring. Last year, thirty nine
percent of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. He ranked
twenty fourth among running backs in total scrimmage yards, So
there were games where if he wasn't getting a touchdown,
then he wasn't getting you the kind of points that

(29:28):
you needed to be able to compete with the top
end running backs. And this offense to Bills. They just
nullify any kind of star factor outside of Josh Allen.
Josh Allen is a superstar. And then trying to bet
on any of the players in the Bills offense to
have consistent fantasy output, it's really difficult because there'll just

(29:48):
be weeks where to one guy weeks were it to another.
In last year, James Cook got their three touchdowns and
that's not something about necessarily want to bet on this year.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
Yeah, Cook and Ericson, I'm curious what you think about this. Like,
I'm not at the point in my fantasy playing career
where I am just blanket auto out on anybody who
is like holding out during the off season. And obviously
there's still time for the contract stuff to get resolved.
It's still only May, but I'm not far off from
that dot. I feel like it always burns you that

(30:20):
there's always a slow start, and I just don't want to,
especially this early in the draft where you need to
be drafting Cook coming off of his year last year.
I just don't want to be in that business of
a guy who.

Speaker 4 (30:32):
Especially start like that.

Speaker 1 (30:34):
Yeah, to me, that's it's it's very easy to fade
given that contract situation, which again Erickson, there is still
time for that to get fixed.

Speaker 3 (30:43):
Yeah, but it's still kind of in the back of
your head where last year he shows out he scores
all these touchdowns and then he wants to get paid.
He's not gonna score nineteen touchdowns. Yeah, that's very unlike
that he's gonna score that many. Now it's more like
it's gonna hit that average. So if he plays the
full season, probably end up being somewhere in the double
digits eight to nine to ten touchdowns. I think it's

(31:04):
probably a safe bet for him to make kind of
breaking the middle between the last two seasons. And so
I'm like more in line with James Cook in terms
of ECR, but I would agree with I don't necessarily
love taking the running backs in this kind of range,
like I have question marks, but like Breece Hall kind
of goes in that range. Again, Kyron goes in there.
I would take James Cook over Kyron. So I'm not
like that far out on Cook where I'd be teaching

(31:25):
Kyron over him. But I think that the usage point
is a really good thing to bring up where he's
not getting he was not getting there because of the
usage I mean average fourteen point one touches per game.
He's playing on our fifty percent of the snaps RB
twenty six and expected fantasy points per game, and we
know the touchdods are probably gonna come down, like he's
probably just not gonna score that many. So I think
it's a case of you show draft James Cook last

(31:47):
year and if you didn't, don't get caught, don't chase it, right,
just be like all right, I lost, take the alan
and kind of move on and just like, hey, we
got to figure out who could be this year's James Cook.
I think that's kind of like the lesson here. It's like,
don't chase James Cook's season from last year, try to
find who can be this ja years James of who
can cash in on this massive touchdown regression. So but
I will say with Cook, so we have a twenty

(32:07):
eight game sample size of him in Joe Brady's offense
basically since he took over. I think at the second
half it's like two and a half years ago, somewhere
along those lines. But average fifteen point five fantasy points
per game since that point over that twenty eight games,
and that's good low end Fantasy RB one production. So
I think if he stays healthy, shows up, he's gonna
end up being a low end RB one. Not the
worst pick, but I think that we can do better.

Speaker 1 (32:29):
These aren't the only three running back names in this tier.
But I want to ask about these three. Ericson who
would you rather draft? And I'm gonna ask you the
same question Tom after ericson who would you rather draft
out of Breese Hall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
For Actually, I want Tom to go first, Okay, Tom,
you can go.

Speaker 4 (32:46):
Yeah. I mean I've got Breis Hall as my thirty
second player overall, James Cook forty first, and then Kenneth
Walker down at forty five, So it's Breesehall for me.
I don't feel particularly good about any of those guys.
I generally just prefer the wide receivers in this tier.
But yeah, I mean we get one of those in
a bit.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
Eric ericson if it helps, I'll go before you. I
would go Breese Hall, then Walker than Cook for me.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
So I have it ranked Hall, Cook, and then Walker.
So the same as Tom. But I don't know if
it's Debros in my ear about Ken Walker.

Speaker 2 (33:19):
But that's exactly why I said Walker.

Speaker 3 (33:22):
But every time I look at Walker, I'm like, man,
I just I know that. I just feel so confident
that when he is healthy playing in this offense for Seattle,
that he's going to be a smash. I feel very
confident about that with Ken Walker.

Speaker 1 (33:34):
So let me ask you this, DJ Moore Kenneth Walker,
because they are very close, I would take over there.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
Yeah, I definitely agree with that too.

Speaker 1 (33:40):
I just want to make sure, all right, let's go
to ericson your next receiver.

Speaker 3 (33:45):
I know Tom's gonna hate this one, so that's why
I had to make sure I put on the list.
So DeVonta Smith for me for the wide receiver for
the Philadelphia Eagles, and this is one I'm I feel
like I have to. I be bringing it up every
year with DeVante Smith, where I want to recognize that
he's a really good real life wide receiver, but is
he always the best fantasy option? So last year, eight

(34:07):
games with both AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard active in
the lineup, he averaged eight point three fantasy points per game.
That was wide receiver fifty one basically looking at the
season long averages. But when one of those guys missed time,
he averaged almost fifteen points per game, which was fantasy
wide receiver one. So for me with the Vanta Smith,
it's really about what your roster looks like. And because

(34:29):
when those other guys are healthy, like he doesn't produce,
he's not putting up numbers where you can even feel
good about putting him in your starting lineup. But the
upside is there. So guy misses time, Okay, he smashes,
but I'm not so sure that where I have to
draft Vonta Smith, I want to make a bet on
injury contingency where Okay, now I get to his bank

(34:50):
on one of these guys missing, and then I'm locked
and loaded to go. So I recognize, and that's why
I put Smith in here as this overvalued conversation, not
as a bust because just look at his career. There's
no bust finishes in his career. Like he's been a
really solid receiver in fantasy since he enter to the NFL.
But I get concern when he starts to steam up
as a wide receiver two with two other strong target

(35:14):
earners on his team and an offense that really likes
to run the football a ton. So those are the
reasons why DeVante Smith I just am hesitant to draft
where he ends up going in a lot of these
fantasy drafts.

Speaker 2 (35:26):
There's also a difference.

Speaker 1 (35:27):
I just want to say, because you mentioned in the
kind of the bust factor this episode isn't busts, right,
that can be kind of part of the conversation, But
it's overvalued players, and some players who are high floor
can still be overvalued because we are not confident in
the ceiling or because we think the floor isn't as
high as as we saw. It doesn't necessarily mean they're
going to be a bust and completely tank your season.

(35:48):
It's just they're not going to be worth it where
they're going.

Speaker 3 (35:51):
Yeah, So that's kind of the point I'm just trying
to make with Smith is I think that again, at
the end of the day, he's probably going to finishing
somewhere in the thirty thirty five range at worst. But
if these guys don't miss games after they missed games
last year, then he's not gonna be He's going to
be a dead part of your roster that you can't
start confidently. And I think best Ball is a little
bit different. I think that he's a better best ball

(36:11):
option because of the upside they can offer on a
week week basis if one of these guys misses. But
there's a lot of guys and a lot of receivers
that I think I get still later where you're getting
some similar contingency upside if there's an injury that just
don't cost as much.

Speaker 1 (36:25):
What do you think about this one, Tom, I know
Ericson kind of predicted you are not going to agree
with it.

Speaker 4 (36:31):
Yeah, I mean, I love the slim Reaper, Like, he's
such a fun player to watch, such a good receiver,
and I just I don't want to fade DeVonta Smith.
Like last year was the first season in the NFL
where he's had less than one hundred targets. His stats
have been pretty much stable. Yeah, year, yards of target,
yards per game, touchdowns, Yeah, yeah, it's all fairly consistent

(36:54):
and wide receiver twenty nine on Underdog ADP. I know
at a minute he is like that feels fine to me.
He's at eight twenty plus point games over the last
two years, and I think he kind of goes back
to what Ericson touched on about how your roster looks
if you're drafting Debunda Smith as your wide receiver two.
That's probably a lot more of a hard sell. But
if I can get him as my wide receiver three,

(37:16):
or even my wide receiver four, then I'd feel a
lot more comfortable with it.

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Speaker 2 (38:51):
Tom, let's go to your next over valued player.

Speaker 4 (38:54):
And it hurts me do this, but it's Deebo Samuel,
a guy that was a head of consensus on all
last year. I thought he was going to get the
perfect runout when Brandon and I you got injured. It
was all set up for him, and he flopped in
a massive way, like he just looked completely out of juice.
He had the lowest receiving success rate of his career

(39:14):
by far. He'd never been below forty seven percent previously
forty percent. Last year rushing yards before contact, that dropped
from three point eight yards out at one point six. Now,
obviously he's on a new offense with the Commanders. They
didn't spend that much on him. It was only a
fifth round pick. He's got no guaranteed money going beyond.
This year. He ranked seventy seventh in tags per out run,

(39:35):
so he wasn't really earning them at a high rate.
And that was even with Brandon Iu copper Field. He
was fifty first among wide receivers in first read rate.
The forty nine Ers seemed to know that he didn't
quite have it last year, and Brot Purdy seemed to
know he didn't quite have it last year and just
wasn't targeting that much. And I think that this offense
with the Commanders is going to continue to run through

(39:56):
Terry McLaurin. I've got much more faith in him, and
I just don't really want to be draft in Deebo Samuel.
I'd probably put him around about round seven before I
feel comfortable on him.

Speaker 1 (40:08):
This is another very strong agree by me. I promise
you if he stays in this range, I will be
ranking him below consensus come end of August. I think
this is too high, and pretty much for all the
reasons you just said, I don't need to rehash them.
I really strongly agree with Tom on this one. Ericson
where do you have Deebo Samuel ranked very very low?

Speaker 3 (40:31):
So also, I'm also not interested in Deebo Samuel. It's fun,
you know. If you look at the Fantasy pros ECR rankings,
it has a cool tool and filter where you can
see how often a player beat their weekly projection. He
beat so in fifteen games that he played with the
projection for he had Fantasy points, he went over his

(40:51):
projection three times. Twenty percent of his games. He exceeded
expectations before the game started. So yes, there's no sugarcoating.
He was terrible last year. I know that he did
deal with a bunch of injuries. I know that he
had the I believe it was pneumonia. That he was
dealing with. So so I think that those backing Debo

(41:11):
will come with the argument with, well, you know he's
banged up. He was, he was playing through illness. It's like, okay,
and Tera McLaurin is also happening. We mentioned the holdout.
Tre McLaurin is currently also like holding out for a
new contract. So if there's an issue where Terre mcluorin
gets banged up or something and he pulls his hamstring
and then Deebo is the default number one, I could
see a scenario where this maybe looks bad in the

(41:31):
beginning of the season. But Worm, I'm telling you right now,
the first guy I'm putting on the Trade High show
is Cell High. After Debo scores an eighty yard touchdown,
is like, he's goa the number one guy. I'm going
right to the sheet the minute that he scores a
long touchdown with his yard debts of the catch in
week one, and he's gonna be a Cell High for me,
because we've seen like he doesn't last. He's not gonna
play all seventeen games. He gets hurt all the time.

(41:53):
It's twenty nine years old, and I guess I'm not
as optimistic about Cliff Kingsbury just using him in this
super dynamic way. Where didn't Cliff Kingsburgy have Rondell Moore
for like the longest time and we never got any
created usage out of that type of explosive player like
running back wide receiver hybrid. I mean, it took us
a long enough to get McLaurin away from just lining

(42:13):
up on one side of the field. It took us
like the entire season. So just projecting Deebo to have
this crazy unique or running back wide receiver role, I
think is just being a little bit too optimistic. So
even if Deebo makes me look bad for the first
month while he's healthy, I think you're gonna be better
off when the season comes down to the fantasy playoffs.

Speaker 1 (42:31):
That's the exact point I was gonna make when I
first saw this name on the sheet, is I don't
like he Outside of the twenty twenty one season, Deo
Samuel has never had nine hundred receiving yards in a season.
He's never had double digit receiving touchdowns. The elite awesome
seasons have been driven by these rushing touchdowns and just
the rushing usage in no way shape or form. Do

(42:53):
I trust the Commanders.

Speaker 2 (42:55):
To do that? I don't.

Speaker 1 (42:56):
I still don't think Cliff Kingsbury is a very good
offensive coach. I think he got an incredible rookie quarterback
who covered up a lot of Kingsbury's warts, Like I don't.
I follow a lot of Commanders fans on Twitter, and
a lot of them were talking about like, you know,
like you know, we really need him to not get
poached for a head coaching job, and I was like,

(43:18):
I think you can do a lot better than Cliff Kingsbury.
You should hope that somebody you know saves you from
that mess and allows you to make up better higher
because I like, I don't think he's the worst offensive
coordinator in football, but I don't think he's very good.
I don't think his stuff is very inspired or creative.
And Deebo Samuel, I think to be an awesome fantasy
asset needs an inspired and creative play caller. And I

(43:39):
just don't think that even setting aside injury risks in
another year older and you know, coming off this down season.
So yeah, I am not in on Samuel in Washington,
and I'm not in on him in fantasy ericson next
mid round mistake.

Speaker 3 (43:56):
Jordan Addison wide receiver for that Minnesota Vikings. Looking at
Addison finished last year, so he scored eight of his
nine touchdowns after Week nine, So before that, when he
wasn't scoring any touchdowns, he was under nine Fantasy points
per game, so well outside the wide receiver three range.
When you look at his target share in the Vikings offense,
even when TJ. Hoginson wasn't part of the offense, he

(44:18):
never topped a twenty percent target share on the year.
I was expecting going back to see, okay, his target
chair was probably north of twenty percent start the year
with no Hogginson, that wasn't the case. Like his target
shair never crested more than twenty percent when all these
guys were healthy at any point, and now you're throwing
in a brand new quarterback again. We expect the system
in Minnesota to be great. It's always been great with

(44:39):
the current head coach in place there, but it's still
a projection, and I guess for me, I also think
the Vikings. I think they want to run the ball
a little bit more, just given the fact that they're
having a brand new quarterback who's never played in the
NFL coming off a major knee injury, and they just
bolstered up that in tier offensive line. They traded for
Jordan Mason, they have Aaron Jones. Why not give your

(45:00):
young quarterback a really solid run game, play bully ball
a little bit to make his life easier, not put
everything on his shoulders. So if that means Addison is
now the wide receiver the basically you know two A
or two B option in the passing game. When an
offense that is it leading the league in terms of
passing yards and pass right over expectation, Well that I
don't think he's going to pay off, especially with all

(45:21):
of his both of his seasons, he scored a ton
of touchdowns, So you have to win with a lot
of efficiency with Jordan Addison. Not to say he's a
bad player. I don't think that he's a bad player,
but just looking at the optics of the situation, I
could see him underwhelming and for him to sneak into
the top twenty four to three years in a row.
Also considering that he may get suspended at some point
for the duy that happened in twenty twenty four, so

(45:44):
that still hasn't been totally finalized, but I think at
this point there's more information, there's more you know, smoke
around Addison probably missing games this year than Rushie Rice.
So that's something to also kind of pay attention to,
where if he's gonna miss one of the three games,
there's another reason why, Like I don't feel like dealing
with potentially at number three target on a with a
brand new quarterback. So for me, that's why Addison is

(46:04):
someone that I think is a little bit overvalued.

Speaker 1 (46:07):
Yeah, Addison is really interesting because I do kind of think,
you know, so the last two years, he's been around
one hundred targets, around sixty five ish receptions, and around
nine hundred receiving yards. I think all three of those
are very possible to repeat again for a third straight year.
But it's the touchdowns ten in year one, nine and
year two that's where.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
He has to be really efficient.

Speaker 1 (46:28):
Again, Like you said, Ericson, he also had a rushing
touchdown last year, so a total of ten in both years,
and that that's where you get a little worried.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
We talked last year a lot.

Speaker 1 (46:36):
I remember Ericson, I think mostly when we're talking about
the Bears situation. But about how difficult it is for
rookie quarterbacks to support more than one great fantasy receiver.
And you say, you know, it's a new quarterback coming in.
It essentially is a rookie quarterback coming in, even though
he's had a year to just like sit with the
system and you know, get to know Kevin O'Connell and
these guys. It's essentially a rookie quarterback at the NFL level,

(46:57):
those guys often struggle to have multiple high level fantasy receivers.
We know Justin Jefferson is not going to be the
guy who gets short shrift here. So I think this
is a really fair one. Again, I kind of think
the targets, receptions in the yards will be largely in
the same range. I do think it'll be a lot
of spike weeks and then a lot of nothing weeks
to get to that point, and then it's just going

(47:18):
to come down to the touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (47:19):
Again, Tom, what do you make of Addison?

Speaker 4 (47:21):
Yeah, I think you're both making really good points on
this one, because there's definitely a concern about what this
sufferense is going to look like. I've got plenty of
faith in Kevin O'Connell that he's going to get JJ
mccafey played into a decent level. And I've got plenty
of faith that Jordan Addison's stats aren't going to completely
plummet the nineteen touchdowns in two seasons. Like, touchdown production

(47:43):
might not be sticky. We've talked about that already and
there's plenty written about that, but nineteen touchdowns in two
seasons is quite an impressive number. Like, that's the twelfth
most through two seasons all time, Like Jamal Chase was
only at twenty two. AJ Brown was only at nineteen.
AJ Green was at eighteen, Julio Jones was at eighteen. Like,

(48:03):
these numbers are really strong and really impressive. If that regresses,
can he make up for it in other ways? I'm
not too sure, but I'm quite comfortable with Jordan Addison
at this range in the draft. Like I just I
don't really feel like I completely want to fade him,
And part of that kind of comes down to the
players who come after him. It feels like this is

(48:23):
like the edge of a teer break where the wide
receivers coming after him, guys like Chris Olavae, Juan Jennings,
George Pickins, Jacoby Myers, like it feels like there are
a lot of question marks around those players and the
offensives that Ron maybe and mixing in a guy like
Jordan Addison when I've got a fair idea of what

(48:43):
he is as a player, what the vikings are or
could be as an offense, I'm okay with it. I
don't really lean one way or the other strongly.

Speaker 1 (48:53):
The other thing I want to just quickly mention Addison
is that I had this image of my head of
him getting a lot of kind of big play for
a lot of those touch down specifically, and they drafted
ty Felton on Day two, and that, like, I think
that was a bit of a reach on Felton, even
though he's a terp, but that is his best skill
set is the deep plays in my opinion. So if
those some of those longer touchdowns and the big play

(49:14):
touchdowns go to Felton, you know that that will hurt
Addison in that regard as even aside from a healthy
Justin Jefferson and TJ.

Speaker 3 (49:21):
Hockenss the vikings too. And I only remember this because
of all my Aaron Jones anytime touchdown bets I made,
they were one of the worst running like trying to
convert at the goal line with the running backs. They
were one of the worst teams like offensively last year.
So what happened if they didn't score a rushing touchdown? Oh,
Jordan Adison finds the end zone yet again. So if
Jordan Mason comes in and ends up being that banger

(49:42):
in between the tackles third and one, let's punch it in, Okay,
then you're seeing where the touchdowns aren't there for Addison
in your three.

Speaker 1 (49:50):
Addison is one of those guys where I just like
the player, so like I do think I will have
him in some leagues, and I honestly if he's healthy.
I feel similarly about the next guy who Tom just
alluded to in his last bit talking about Addison his
final mid round re stake. Here, I feel similarly where
I just liked the player and I really want him
to be good and get the usage I want to
see assuming he's healthy.

Speaker 4 (50:10):
Yeah, I mean it's Krystal Larvae, and definitely I would
love to see a healthy and emphatic season from Chrystal Larvae.
But I just largely want to avoid the Saints this year.
Much like we kind of talked about with the Colts
and on Jonathan Taylor pick. This is a team. The
stink on the Saints is so bad. Like last year,
the offensive line ranked twenty second in PFF grades, and

(50:31):
I feel like it's going to be quite difficult for
them a rate better. The quarterback situation is a complete nightmare.
And I look back at the early part of the
season when both Chrystal Lave and Rashid Shaheed were healthy
and it was all Rashid Shahed like. Shaheed had a
thirty percent target share compared to the Larve's twenty one percent.

(50:51):
Shaheed was the wide receiver ten in that period compared
to the Larvae being the wide receiver forty six. Now,
Shaheed's production was quite fluky. He ranked really highly in
air yards pa target, much higher in actual, converted and
realized air yards patarget than most of the guys who
rank high in that metric, So perhaps that comes back
a little bit. But I think Rashid Shaheed is the

(51:12):
real deal. I also, like Juan Johnson, I think that
Alvin Kamara is going to see a ton of a
ball and I just don't think that Chrystal Lave in
this iteration of the Saints' offense is going to have
enough upside where I want him on my team. I
just think that he's going to be a floor player
in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (51:30):
Ericson what do you think of a Lave? He's currently
overall sixtieth in our half PPR rankings and why does
he were twenty nine?

Speaker 2 (51:36):
Is that too high? Too lower? Just right?

Speaker 3 (51:38):
I think it is way too high. I agree that
chrisal Lave is massively overvalued. I think at the point
about Rashi hi heat is not being talked about enough.
Rashi Jihad has not only outproduced Crystal l'Ave last year,
but it's been a trend like going back to since
they've been playing together last couple of years. Their receiving
arts per game aren't that far off. It's only a
Lave buy about ten yards. So rashijih had has been

(52:00):
very underrated player and was looked like he was going
to break out all over the place before he got
hurt last year. So from an upside bet, right, because
we always want to try to draft for upside, especially
when it comes to some of these wide receivers. Where's
the upside case for chrisl Lave? This guy doesn't create
yards after the catch, which means he has to be
relying on accurate passes. Okay, you have Tyler Shuck coming

(52:21):
in twenty seven year old court I don't know how
twenty six year old quarterback coming in as a rookie,
and I like the upside is more touched to shihied right,
Why would I just take Rashihihid later on? After he
outproduced Crystal Lave last season. When you look at just
top twelve weekly finishes over the past two seasons, Christal
Lave has averaged two per year over the last two seasons.

(52:44):
Rashijihi has more top twelve weekly finishes than Chris Lave
over the past two seasons. So when you're looking for upside,
just wait and take rashi Hihi. It's the exact same
bet you're making, except you're paying a fraction of the cost.
So if you think that, hey, maybe the Saints can
surprise I'm a big Tyler shut guy, then don't I
would just invest in shaheat instead. And I'm not saying
that that's gonna be the case. That I want to

(53:05):
be a talis check person, Like I really don't want
to draft any Saints either, but if I have to
draft one, I'll just take sheet.

Speaker 1 (53:13):
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(53:36):
the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. Guys, let's do one
over hyped sleeper each. This is a round nine or later.
We can go a little quicker on here, because it's
less really an overvalued guy and more just kind of
a sleeper maybe that you're not totally buying into and
are It feels weird to say avoid when you're this late,
But it's not a guy you're targeting as one of
your later round sleepers.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
So we'll go a little quicker here. Ericson who do
you have.

Speaker 3 (53:58):
Tyrone Tracy running back for the New York I just
don't I think when it's all said and done, I
don't know think he's going to be the starting running
back for the New York Giants. So that's my concern
about where he's ranked going ahead of camp Scattaboo. I
get why you'd have him ranked ahead of camp Scataboo,
But Tyrone Tracy, if you look at him last year,
it was kind of the tale of two seasons. Right
when he first took over the job, he was very efficient,

(54:18):
very explosive. But weeks twelve through eighteen, he was PFF's
fourth worst graded rusher. He's splitting carries inside the five
yard lin with Devin Singletary. He had ball security issues,
third most fumbles among running backs. How many fumbles is
it going to take for Brian Able to just be like,
I'm sick of this guy. Let's get camp Scataboo in there. Right.
Every game the Giants play, they have to win for

(54:39):
them to keep their jobs, and guys spoiler, their schedule's
really hard, so they can't afford turnovers and dumb mistakes
by young players. So if Tyron I just think that
his leash on the RB one role is super super loose,
I just don't think that he has a vice script
on it. And when you look at the way that

(54:59):
the Giants have orchestrated or have kind of created this back.
Do you have Devin Singletary as a veteran presence, you
have Tyrone Tracy. Tyron Tracy seems like the complimentary back
to a starter like Camp Scattaboo, where Taron Tracy is
the change of pace back comes in as a burst
of explosiveness. But Camp Scataboo, we know he can play
on all three downs. We know that we can catch
passes out of the backfield. You know, Tyrone Tracy played

(55:19):
wide receiver. It's still a little bit different when you're
catching passes out of the backfield versus running routes from
the slot or from out wide. So I think that
Scattaboy is a legitimate threat. And there's only really based
on how we expect this Giants offense to be probably
not that good. Any type of workload that Tarron Tracy
is losing out to Camp Scattabo, he's gonna hurt him

(55:41):
a lot.

Speaker 1 (55:42):
Any quick thoughts Tom on Tracy versus Scataboo in that backfield, Yeah.

Speaker 4 (55:47):
I'm just right there with Ericks, And it just doesn't
feel like a pickvel want to make. They seem so
hot and cold on him last year and Devin Singletary's
a presence. There be so much easier to take Tracy
if Devin Singletary had been cut, But as it is,
like just can Scatterbill instead?

Speaker 2 (56:02):
Tom, who's your last player here?

Speaker 4 (56:04):
Yeah, it's Jaden Blue for the Cowboys. Like going currently
about pick one hundred and thirty and I've done this
whole who else is going to get the touches argument? Before?
It doesn't feel great. This is a guy who was
a fifth round pick of twenty fourth running back off
the board of the draft, only had one college season
over four hundred yards. I just legitimately think that he

(56:25):
could be a special team's only type player. Now, obviously
he's probably going to get touches in this offense because
it is just jo Bonny Williams and Miles SAMs ahead
of him. They have the experience in things that actually
matter to NFL offenses, And just penciling in a guy
with very little college production into a starter role or
into a meaningful role isn't something I want, particularly in

(56:46):
managed leagues, and like, just give me guys like Trey Benson,
Ray Davis, Rashad White who are all going around him instead.
I just do not want to make this bet at
this price.

Speaker 1 (56:59):
Deebro our colleague, has been very in on this idea
that Jayden Blue, Like he doesn't hate Blue, but this
idea that he's going to take over this backfield even
on passing downs, which is kind of I think the
stereotype that people are thinking about for Blue. He's not
a very good pass protector, like I think. And we
talked about this ericson of course, on the running Back
ranking show that we just did earlier this week, where
you and me and debro are all we're not like

(57:21):
over the moon about Javonte Williams. We're all higher than
consensus on him.

Speaker 3 (57:26):
He's this year's JK Dobbins. Yeah, are you joining the
lockstep with this call? Here? We have the next JK
Dobbins as Javonte.

Speaker 4 (57:34):
You can kind of drug me along slow JK Dobbins
slight pace.

Speaker 1 (57:39):
Well, I mean, I think you really kind of have
to be in on him if you are fading Blue,
because this is going to be a good offense. Maybe
not an e leite offense, but I think if Dak
is healthy and Seedy Lamb is healthy, it's going to
be at the very least a good offense. And I
think Miles Sanders couldn't be more washed.

Speaker 2 (57:55):
So if we think.

Speaker 1 (57:57):
Blue is maybe a little bit overhyped too, he's gonna
get some valuable touches. And I think Javonte Williams has
a better chance than the other two guys in this backfield.
So I know we're not talking about Javonte, but I
mean it's kind of a counterpoint to or it's kind
of the other side of the coin of fading Jayden Blue.

Speaker 3 (58:14):
Yeah, I would agree with Jadan Blue being maybe a
little overvalued. I think that we love how he's explosive
and he can catch passes out of the backfield, but
that doesn't mean he's gonna get goal line touches. That
doesn't mean he's going to catch all the dump offs
from Dak Prescott. But yes, he'll look great running a
wheel route from Dak Prescott and then he won't play
any more snaps in the game. That's the issue with
Jaden Blue is I think let's say Javonte flops. I

(58:36):
don't think they're gonna be all right. Let's load Jaden
Blue up with twenty carries. I think it's gonna be like, Hey,
who's going to be the next innings year, right, Miles
Sanders get in there, just take carries. So Jadan Blue,
I agree, is gonna look explosive in this offense and
thinks he can rip off big plays, but is that
going to be predictive of Okay, now you feel good
about starting Jaden Blue? Oh, we got five touches the
next week. So like that's the concern is that he's
just a compliment to which one of these guys. So

(58:57):
I think if Javonte hits, I think he's probably a
bigger win than and if Jaden Blue is just kind
of like used seldomly based on the fact that he
also has fumble security issues as well pass pro like
you said worms, So yeah, I think that Jade Blue
probably a little bit overvalued as well.

Speaker 1 (59:12):
To that point, you know, we're saying that he's overvalued
in the rankings. His ADP is thirty spots higher than
where he's currently ranked in ECR. So it's he's all right,
and that there's a lot of room for that to
change obviously between now and the end of August, but
he's already going well ahead of where the experts are
ranking him. And we're even saying that the experts are
maybe ranking him a bit too high, so definitely be

(59:33):
at least thinking about that if you are targeting him
as a sleeper in your redraft leagues. We'll ahead and
wrap up there because it's super late for.

Speaker 2 (59:40):
Tom right now.

Speaker 1 (59:41):
Tod, thanks for staying up late with us a little
FP after dark, at least from your perspective. For Tom
and Ericson, I'm Ryan warmly. Thanks everybody for tuning in.
We'll see again next time.

Speaker 3 (59:51):
Good ravings.

Speaker 1 (59:52):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review, or on Spotify.
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FantasyPros - DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)

Episode Transcript

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FantasyPros - DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)

Colin Cowherd