FantasyPros - DON'T STEP ON THESE LANDMINES | Dangerous Players You Should Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1585) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Ricksson and by Jake
Seey from The Athletic Guys. I feel like I've had
a lot of negative shows lately. That's continuing today. We're
talking players are avoiding in twenty twenty five some land
mines to avoid. I was talking to our coworker Mayor
about in the last three weeks, I've done like I

(00:21):
do not draft episode, I've done an over valued players episode.
Now it's the players that we're avoiding. All these land mines.
It's all negative. So I'm sorry for that to the
audience that I have to continually be the party pooper
here on these episodes. A quick reminder for everybody that
all of our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tears
can be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Ericson

(00:41):
how do you feel about diving into some of these
more negative takes here?

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Well, similar to you, I have also been on a
bunch of negative player shows. I actually wasn't supposed to
be on the show. I had to do some swapping
with Derek Brown, so I was supposed to be on
The Fun Show later in the week, but a last
I'm here talking negatively, but we're gonna get a different
perspective with Jake joining. I don't think Jake has done
as many negative shows as we've done, so it'll be
getting some interesting light. Maybe he can push back on

(01:07):
some guys that we're down on and maybe open the
light about maybe some concerns about some other players.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Jake, do you feel like you more enjoy coming onto
these shows and getting to hype up players you like
or getting to be the kind of negative Nelly on
the players you don't like.

Speaker 3 (01:22):
No, Actually, I gotta put on this one.

Speaker 4 (01:24):
I'm like, eh, can I find somebody I don't like
the negative ones? I like trying to make it positive
because I just feel like that comes out so inherently,
like I don't even do busts anymore, just because well,
two things as one as you two picked that up
one time it was like sensitive content and pulled their
video down because I guess you know, who knows what
people are searching out there, but busts. But also it

(01:44):
just it always feels good to like, hey, these are
the breakouts more so than like, can't like just avoid.
I think the way that we're phrasing it though, is
that we're avoiding these players.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
It's not necessarily that we're calling them trash.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
Yeah, there there there are potential traps. They're land mines
that we are avoiding.

Speaker 5 (01:59):
But you know.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
Shirt, that's a trick. She's gonna pull the football away.
There you go.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
We had to find a chat about all of Jake's
graphic t's before the episode, and it's already coming into
play here in the let us.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Jake has a lot of graphic ts want and I
want people in the comments to list off how many
graphic ts they think Jake.

Speaker 5 (02:22):
Has whatever, whatever you guess, it's not gonna be you
know what.

Speaker 4 (02:25):
I'll tell you guys, you know what, because if you
get the number on the nose, I'll send you in
one of my retired ones that I don't wear on
the show. I actually have a retired pile and I
don't agree.

Speaker 5 (02:37):
Try try to hit the number.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Island knows Jake will send you a fun little gift
there before we dive in here. And by the way,
I know we all just kind of like dumped on
the concept of the episode. This still is an important
conversation right, like, there are players that you want to
be avoiding. So we're gonna we're gonna have fun with
the episode, even if it is a little negative.

Speaker 5 (02:53):
Before we dive.

Speaker 1 (02:53):
Into you guys, player picks and we're gonna go h
position by position. We got some running backs, receivers, et cetera.
Do you have anything going on with the athletic you
want to share?

Speaker 4 (03:02):
Yeah? Positive, it's my series of breakouts is starting the
quarterbacks first, running backs, wide receivers, and tight end. So
top five breakout potential quarterbacks coming for this year.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
All right, So you get the positivity over there, you
get the negativity of here.

Speaker 5 (03:15):
Let's have some fun. We'll start off with the running backs.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Ericson.

Speaker 5 (03:18):
Let's start with you. Who's the running back that you're
avoiding this year?

Speaker 2 (03:20):
Kien Williams for the Los Angeles Rams. My concerns for
Kyn are We know that Sean McVay loves him, but
I do have concerns about if Kiren's going to see
the exact same workload he saw last season. Three hundred
and eighty nine touches, eighty seven percent snapshare, so basically
both second to only Saquon Barkley and I know I

(03:41):
have concerns about seqwe Barkley having a successful twenty twenty
five after how many touches he had last year. But
the big difference between Kien and Saquon is Williams was
really inefficient as a rusher last year, so he ranked
near the bottom of the league in terms of explosive
run rate, mistackles per touch, yards out your contact per attempt.
If you look at a lot of his advanced rushing metrics,

(04:02):
it looked very similar to Naji Harris. So, yes, there
are certain points where a player like a Naji Harris
rushing style can be effective and you're getting all the
touches in a backfield on a good offense. Yes, it
can work in scory fantasy points. But the fact that
they still have Blake Rum entering his second season, who
is a carbon copy of Kyn. The fact that they
drafted Jark Buss Hunter in the fourth round. They traded

(04:24):
up to get him as more of a not replacement
for Kiren, but someone that I think they view as
a compliment to Hey, let's give Kyraen a breather. Let's
get this explosive running back on the field. Sean McVay
has talked a lot about this offseason about kind of
mimicking a little bit what they did in Tampa Bay
with Liam Cohen, where they were using pony personnel. They're
using multiple running backs, So I think in an effort

(04:45):
to keep Kyen healthy and upright, because Sean McVay loves him,
I don't want to destroy this guy. Karen's going to
sign an extension probably with the Los Angeles Rams, and
if they want to make him last and be productive
year over year in some capacity, then I don't think
it means we're going to load him up with three
fifty plus touches every single season. And if he's seeing
it reduced workload and also not being as efficient like

(05:08):
we saw last year when his efficials he really kind
of fell off, I'm concerned that he's got to be
able to meet RB one type of draft capital ADP.
So those are my concerns for Kiram Williams.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
Jacob, I'm really curious that you think about this one.
I feel like I've talked about Kyroen on a few
episodes recently, and what I keep saying is I am
very interested in fading him. My hesitation is that the
fact that I faded him a year ago and got
burned by it, and I'm worried about getting burned again.
How are you approaching Kiroen in drafts this year?

Speaker 4 (05:35):
Yeah, I was reaching there for like the prop because
I was thinking of good old I don't believe you
when it comes down to this, because the fact is
Sean McVay sorry, talked up about oh, we need to
do more like the rest of the league and share
more touches.

Speaker 3 (05:50):
And that's what I'm saying. I don't believe you.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
Like how many times are I don't believe you? You
do this every single year you could And credit to
Ian Hardis who did this is went out there and
pulled everything he said last year about Blake Korm and
treated the tweet as in a Jarque's Hunter tweet and
everybody thought it was about Jarco's Hunter when it is
all the stuff he said last year about Blake Korm
and pulling the workload off Karen Williams. So I say

(06:13):
I don't believe you, but I will say there is
a little bit of a concern I have Karen Williams
as a back end RB one. You could argue that
if I don't have any concern he should be a
mid RB one, He should be RB five, six seven.
But the concern I have is that I don't actually
believe him in the workload. But I do know that
Sean McVay, once it happens, he will make that switch.

(06:35):
And I don't think it has anything to do with
necessarily drafting Hunter. I tweeted this out a few weeks ago,
is that McVeigh sneid the Rams, whatever you want to say.
They have drafted a Day two or three running back
every single year since twenty eighteen. Every single year. This
is just what they do. But similar to cam Aker,
similar to Darryl Henderson, and all the rest is, once
the switch happens, he very quickly loses favor for his

(06:57):
running back. I just think that's what's going to take
for Karen Williams to lose his job. Not necessarily the inefficiency,
which I'll acknowledge You're one hundred percent right ericson one
of the more inefficient running backs in the lines of
Naje Harrison, even Joe Mixon at this point in his career.
But I just don't believe him. It's just going to
happen from day one. I think it's going to take
two or three bad games or current and then it
could happen, which is why I have him as a

(07:18):
back end RB one and not a mid RB one.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
Ericson before we move off Kiraen just because he's just
such a big name. At what point are you comfortable
drafting him? Is it the end of the second round?
Is that he needs to fall to the third for
you to be interested. His ADP is RB twelve right
now for reference.

Speaker 2 (07:34):
I think it's really more. I think he can probably
be productive in the beginning of the season. It's just
a matter of getting the rug pull or to chi
Jake's shirt right. And that's why the show is different
than the one that we did earlier this week, where
it's over last week overvalued players. I don't think Karen
Williams is necessarily I think that he has a bus
potential because if Sean McVay decides, all right, you're no

(07:55):
longer my guy, I don't love you anymore, I want
to move on, then Kyle Williams's value doesn't just decrease,
it of operates and it becomes now he's a bust.
So that's why he's a dangerous player to me, So
if I roster him, I think it's probably more like
round three where I'd feel more comfortable taking a shot
at him. But if he's on my team, if he's
my hero RB every single week after he gets twenty

(08:16):
five plus touches in the beginning of the season, I'm
going to be looking to put him on the trade
block and see, hey, who wants to take Kyra Wams
who thinks that this is sustainable production? So that's kind
of the way I would probably approach it.

Speaker 5 (08:27):
Jac who's your first running back here and my first
running back.

Speaker 3 (08:29):
I'm way under consensus on this one. Kira Williams.

Speaker 4 (08:32):
I'm still right around the range, but I'm actually six
under so much so that I'd even take DeAndre Swift
and the Bears over him. And it's Kenneth Walker. I
just I think I'm done trying to hope for the
best for Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 3 (08:43):
And it's not just a health issue.

Speaker 4 (08:44):
Is that there was questions we said, like, oh, can
Zach Charbonay be the guy if Kenneth Walker's not there?
And Zach Charbonay went out there and did it and
did it extremely well, arguably did it better than Kenneth
Walker did, and I think we're now at the point where,
going into twenty twenty five, I think this is to
bring up the Naje Harris what Erickson was just talking about.
I think this is going to be similar to the
Steelers last year, where it's like this is almost a

(09:06):
full fifty to fifty split, and if you're telling me
it's a fifty to fifty split, I want the better
per touch option, and so far the least for the
past year plus, it's been charmon a And I don't
think this is necessarily not potentially a committee. And I know,
like I'm a bigger fan on Martinez than a lot
of people, but I think Martinez was a plan of like, hey,
we're not bringing back Kenneth Walker.

Speaker 3 (09:27):
Like Kenneth Walker, we're done.

Speaker 4 (09:28):
We're not paying that contract, we're not doing that investment
in running backs, which a lot of teams are smartly
doing when it comes to money. But I think they're
looking at this is going to be Martinez and Charmoney
next year, Well what if that happens in twenty twenty five, which,
similar to McVeigh, is just the Seahawks are like, you
know what, we're done with you Walker like it's just
tiresome at this point is the fact that you're not
doing what we want you to do on a consistent basis.

(09:49):
There's been flashes for Walker, but it just hasn't been consistent.
It hasn't been consistent. Also partly because his health. We
have to do admit that. But I think this could
be a full blown committee at worst, and if nothing else.
I do think at best it's a time share. And
I think some of the Steelers we're gonna want the
more explosive one, and that was Warren, and I think
we'd want sharbon A in that situation.

Speaker 1 (10:08):
This is one where I wish Debro was still on
this episode, because he is extremely high on Kenneth Walker.
Now Erickson is also above consensus, just not I think
Debra has him like RB eight or something. This year,
Debro is very high and Kenneth Walker he's RB sixteen
in ECR ericson, I think you have him like RB
thirteen or so, so a little bit above consensus, just
not quite as much as Debro. Before I throw it

(10:30):
to you, Erickson, because I want to hear kind of
the other side of this, Jake kind of similar question.
I asked Erickson about Kyrin, At what point are you
interested in Walker? I mean you said that he's like
pretty blow consensus for you, So are you just like
assuming you're not going to get any of him, or
if he falls to around X you're going to be interested.

Speaker 4 (10:46):
So I have him twenty second overall at running back
again behind Swift by one. I have fifty seventh overall period,
So I think I'm just not getting Walker. But I
mean if he happened to fall to that range and
I could see the one scenario for Walker, because maybe
I'm wrong and there is upside that that split goes
back to sixty forty and it's him and somehow he
stays healthy at this point, but I would want three

(11:07):
wide receivers at this point, like Walker as my RB
two would be a roster construction situation. I do not
want Walker as my RB two if I'm taking him
in the third round.

Speaker 5 (11:17):
Okay, Erickson, what do you think?

Speaker 1 (11:18):
So?

Speaker 2 (11:18):
I do think that Ken Walker will be the bell Cow.
It's still the same head coach that heavily leaned on
Walker when he was healthy. It wasn't a time share
last year. Really, it was Walker until he got hurt
and then it was Sharboney filling in as it was
more of a Dalvin Cook Alexander Madison type of scenario
from a couple of years ago where Madison smashed, but
when Dalvin Cook was healthy, he was always the main guy.

(11:39):
It's a contract year for Keneth Walker, so yes, maybe
they are looking ahead to twenty twenty six as Sharbone
and Damier Martinez. So hey, let's run Kenneth Walker into
the ground. He's on the last year of his deal.
We have no long term commitment to this guy, but
what we know he can do is rip off exposive plays.
He's a complete opposite of what Kyra did last year.
Walker was really efficient on an up per touch basis,

(11:59):
basically the NFL misstackles force per attempt. He also said
career highs across the board as a receiver out of
the backfield, So if that offensive line is still somewhat
shaky again, Walker catch a lot of dump off passes
from Sam Darnold. So I think that Walker's profile betting
on a guy who is explosive, can get by on
potentially limited touches and also flashed as a receiver. He's

(12:22):
just an archetype player. That I do want to bet
on to take a leap again if he can stay healthy.
So those are the reason why I'm a little bit
higher on Ken Walker, and he's one of the guys
I mean, I would draft him over Kyen Williams.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
Well, let's go to your next pick, Ericson, because Jake
mentioned this guy as somebody he would take over Walker,
but it's somebody that you're avoiding.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
I am avoiding DeAndre Swift because I think that he
is the classic dead zone running back mold where he's
just getting his hype or whatever you'd like to call
how people are talking about Deander Swift because of projected volume. Right,
there's no one else in the backfield. They drafted Kyle
mamnung Ni in the seventh round, They've Shawn Johnson entering
the year three, who hasn't done a ton, but DeAndre Swift.

(13:04):
Where's the upside case here? DeAndre Swift has been RB eighteen,
RB nineteen, RB twenty two, RB twenty three, and RB nineteen.
That's been his NFL career. Never better than RB eighteen,
never worse than RB twenty three. So does that mean
maybe he's a value if he holds onto the starting
Bears role, I guess, but I've seen this play out
before with him with Ben Johnson. The first time that

(13:25):
Ben Johnson took over as the offensive coordinator for the
Detroit Lions was the last year we saw DeAndre Swift
in Detroit. So I've already seen him not see ey'd
eye with the current offensive coach and in this specific
running back. And we've seen him before in the past
when that coaching connection is not there. Last year with
Sean Payton and Javonte Williams to an extent, those guys
never saw ey ey and so it never really worked out.

(13:46):
I just feel like Swift is there until Ben Johnson
decides I'm sick of this, I want to use somebody else.
And those are the reasons why I just think that
DeAndre Swift, You're just You're gonna be waiting holding the bag,
hoping that, okay, he doesn't lose his job. He doesn't
lose his job. So those are the reasons I think
DeAndre Swift is a high end boss candidate.

Speaker 1 (14:04):
So what do you think, Jake in terms of Swift? Like, obviously, Eric,
I know you like him better than Walker. As an example,
Ericson mentioned kind of the history that he has with
Ben Johnson having said that, they didn't address the position
another way. So if Ben Johnson doesn't really like Swift,
he didn't go out and really prove it with the
other player acquisitions. I mean, I like Calim and young Guy,

(14:24):
but like, there's only so much seventh round pick you can.

Speaker 5 (14:26):
Expect out of him.

Speaker 1 (14:27):
So you said you like Swift better than Walker, Why
is it that you were higher on Swift?

Speaker 4 (14:32):
Honestly, Ericson kind of made some of my argument here
is that consistency I'm not. I think that it kind
of depends on perception here, because if somebody is seeing
Swift and like, oh my gosh, they haven't done anything,
they draft.

Speaker 3 (14:44):
Me non guy.

Speaker 4 (14:44):
You're also talked about, hey, you have the connection we
talked about on the other show of the Eric the
enemy connection with that with the Rutgers, and oh, by
the way, Pacheck out with the enemy and the Chiefs.
He's kind of replicating that, So that could be a concern.
He'd be like, hey, maybe the enemy has a thing
here for that Rutgers running back. But all that being said,
like I I don't think that Swift is going to
be a twenty touch guy. I don't think Swift is
a twenty touch guy. I think that if you look

(15:06):
at Swift and you talked about all those numbers in
the consistency, that's why I have him at RB twenty one.
I think that RB eighteen range is exactly what he
needs to be as an RB two and I think
that's almost a guarantee. With Ben Johnson and you talked
about it, He's like, yeah, there's been other opportunities.

Speaker 3 (15:21):
But again, I go.

Speaker 4 (15:22):
Back to perception. Is that I think the perception might
be kind of how you phrased the question. I'm not
saying that you're coming for me or anything like that,
but it's like is people are like, oh, they didn't
do anything, so that means Swift to the moon now. No,
I think this just means Swift is safe. And what
Swift is is a time share running back. He is
not a seventy percent workload guy. He's probably fifty five

(15:43):
maybe sixty percent. Where he hovers in those mid teens.
Maybe a few games he gets up to like eighteen nineteen,
maybe twenty on a rare occasion. But in this offense
and with his efficiency as bad as people might think
it is overall, it's still consistent efficiency, and I think
that's the bigger thing is between the two. I think
Swift's role unless they make a shocking trade at this point,

(16:03):
which is still on the cards, but his role is secure.
I just believe that Kenth Walker's role is in serious
jeopardy despite the fact that Ericson is one hundred percent right.
When he was healthy, he was given those opportunities. I
think they just might be tired of them.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
I think, yes, Swift is somebody for me that I
just I'm not going to be excited if I draft.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
I think the thing with me was Swift is if
I don't draft him, how is it going to hurt me?
Like the best thing he could do is RB eighteen,
So that's RB two production, which is.

Speaker 3 (16:31):
I won't say RB one, but I think there's a
little bit more there.

Speaker 2 (16:34):
But based on what he's never done his entire NFL career.

Speaker 4 (16:37):
He's averaged close to fourteen points per game, and that
second season I think it was Keith.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
Walker was a top twelve running back last year in
points per game.

Speaker 3 (16:45):
I just don't believe that's him anymore. I just don't
believe in Keath Walker.

Speaker 4 (16:48):
And that's again, this is why people can choose to
think that I'm stupid because I just I just I
don't believe in Kenneth Walker. I'm done believing in Kenny.
I'm put it this way. I think it comes down
to your risker version and if your shot. I'll agree
with you on this aspect. How about this, If we
said who has a chance to be a top ten

(17:08):
running back, Kenneth Walker not DeAndre Sweet, I will agree
with you on that. I just am done with Kenneth
Walker of being like and I always say, don't let
a player burning you make it so like you you're like, oh,
I'm never drafting again. But I have put it to
the point where Kenth Walker doesn't stay healthy, he doesn't
perform efficiently, like he is exploded. It's the weird thing

(17:29):
is Kenith Walker doesn't do what he's supposed to do.
He's actually explosive. When you say, Kenith Walker, you should
be good between the tackles, and it's like he's not.
He's like better once he gets to that second level,
which is just really weird of him. If he could
put it all together, it'd be top ten. And I
think it just comes down to I'm willing to take
him as my mid lower RB too, I'm just not
willing to take him as a fringe art. So between

(17:49):
the two's cost, I think the cost is more equitable
and more reasonable for Swift than it is for Walker.

Speaker 3 (17:55):
Let's put it that way.

Speaker 1 (17:56):
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We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,
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you can know when new videos are up and to

(18:17):
clean your prize. I know he's not on the team anymore,
but it's it's what we have to give away. So
George pick and Steelers jersey, come get it. Like I said,
now collectible, we've got yes. Maybe if you're a Steelers fan,
you can, you know, burn the jersey if you hate him,
for you know who knows, Try try and get that jersey, though, Jake,

(18:39):
We've got one more running back we're avoiding here.

Speaker 4 (18:41):
Yeah, I'm way under on this one. I'm looking right
now and versus consensus, I'm eleven under and actually at
somebody in my comments even say why do you hate?
Because that's what happens is why do you hate? Apparently
I hate Tony Pollard. This comes down to, I believe
this backfield is a complete split at the point Tony Pollard,
even last year having not so much of this split,

(19:04):
He's still RB twenty four in points per game, Like, whoop?

Speaker 2 (19:07):
Do you do?

Speaker 4 (19:08):
You know what you could? Actually, I'm setting ericson up
to come for me back at the DeAndre Swift thing,
because I feel like Tony Pollard is similar to dere Swift.
It's like, where's the upside in him? He just finished
RB twenty four despite being the lead for most of
the year and getting outperformed at times by the second piece.
I'm just I'm not drafting Tony Pollard, and so much

(19:28):
so to the fact that there's rookies in front of him.
And I know some rankings haven't completely adjusted yet, but
the Pollard one is kind of again, I'm creating my
own hole here by saying this is like I just
don't see the upside where I could see Jalen Warren
shocking people and outperforming in Caleb Johnson or vice versas.
I would take both Steelers running backs over Tony Pollard
because at least with either one of them, there's the

(19:50):
opportunity where one clearly takes over. Similar to Naje Harris
was two three years ago and finishes top twenty, Pacheco
Rebounds is top twenty. Maren Hampton immediately pushes Najre Harris
aside and becomes top twenty. It comes down to the
fact that once I get into these names, I want
somebody that can finish top twenty so and I just
don't think that that's in the cars for Tony Pollard.

Speaker 5 (20:10):
Ericson where do you have Pollard ranked this year?

Speaker 2 (20:12):
So I have him the high end RB three range,
So right now he's RB twenty six, But like Jake
alluded to, he's grouped in with a bunch of rookies.
And it goes back to a lot of this draft
strategy with some of these RB two running backs is
you're kind of weighing early season production versus late season production.
So if you need someone to fill in the first

(20:32):
couple of weeks, Kay, Tony Pollard makes more sense. But
if you can wait, if you're drafting a bench type
of running back, then it makes way more sense to
take an upside shot on one of these rookie running backs.
So it's kind of like he's like grouped in with
those guys, But the upside case I agree with Jake,
So I'm pushing back here on Tony Pollard as well.
Something I've looked a lot more at when projecting running
backs that bust the next year is how do they

(20:53):
finish the season? How do they do in the second
half of last year. Pollard was the third worst grade
running back for PFF in the second half of the
twenty twenty four season. Now, he was playing through injuries
basically every single week. If you were following the are
they playing tool on Fantasy pros, Tony Puller never practiced,
never practiced ever because this guy they had to put
in a cryogenic chamber to basically get him ready for

(21:16):
game day because Tase Spears was never going to be healthy.
And even though Callahan talked every single week, I want
to take the workload off Tony Polter, the guy is
breaking down. So even if he can be a little
bit more efficient. You know, from the days of Dallas
when he was running alongside of Ezekiel Elliott. I think
that's the ideal way you use Tony Pollard, but I
still don't think that's going to move the needle for
him to score in fantasy production. I think Taja Spears

(21:37):
when he is healthy, is a very capable running back
and something that I didn't want to overlook from last
year as well, Spears actually scored more red zone touchdowns
than Tony Pollar did despite nearly half the touches in
the red zone. So I don't think Tony Pollard isn't
even a lock to score those red zone touches in
the Titans offense that we're still not sure how good
could this offense be. I think average is being optimistic

(21:59):
at bets with their rookie quarterback, and if Tony Park's
not going to capitalize on those red zone touches, I
think that he's definitely going to be a committee and
I don't think that drafting him anywhere inside the top
twenty four running backs, I think that's way too aggressive.

Speaker 5 (22:12):
Callahan is still talking like that.

Speaker 1 (22:13):
I mean, if you look at just on his player
page and fantasypros dot Com. The latest news we have
this from about two weeks ago. You know, Callahan said
the team plans to be even more cognizant of Tony
Pollard's workload this season, and he noted that Pollard carried
the ball a lot in twenty twenty four and in
a perfect world quote, we would have to have more
of an even split with Pollard Spears. He also referred
to a three way split in the backfield this season.

(22:35):
So he is talking in that same kind of line
of thinking that you're you're saying here, ericson. So I
think we all are in agreement on this one. Let's
go to the wide receivers that we're avoiding, ericson, Who
do you have here?

Speaker 2 (22:46):
I'm going to start things off with Tyreek Hill for
the Miami Dolphins. I just think that what we saw
last year should not be ignored. I don't think that
wide receivers entering age thirty one, coming off massive declines
and efficiency should just be given a pass on that
type of season. So last year, Tyry Kill wide receiver
thirty three points per game, he only had two one
hundred yard games, went to a Tuneola was healthy last

(23:09):
year and in those games eleven he was wide receiver
eighteen in points per game, So again the production cratered,
the efficiency was nearly cut in half in terms of
his yards per route run fell to one point seven
to five. I think that speed receivers when they hit
this age, Cliff, don't think it's just going to get better. Now.
Maybe he can bounce back a little bit from the
efficiency drop off, but at the same time should be

(23:31):
over investing in this Miami Dolphins offense. I still think
that Jalen Waddle is a very cable wide receiver in
his own right. He's much younger at age twenty six,
he's been a wide receiver one before. He had more
one hundred yard games with two than Terry Kill did
or the same amount, so they both had two. I
think Waddle finished the season pretty strong as well, So
I'd rather have Wattle really more than Terry Kill. Just

(23:51):
afraid that Terry Kill is not going to get better
and bounced back. It's just going to continue to decline.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
So I'm curious, Jake what you think about Hill, But
I also want to looping your first pick in this section.
Who is Hill's teammate Jalen Wattle. So we're avoiding on
either side here this this receiver room in Miami.

Speaker 4 (24:08):
Yeah, and Tyrek Hill, I mean fringe wide receiver one
at this point, which is kind of saying that maybe
not totally in on him. So I don't I don't
disagree too much, especially when you talk about this point
of career being speed and the main factor for Tyrek Hill.
But I think it's just the Dolphins as a whole,
is we're expecting a lot. This is probably a make
or break season. We tell everybody talked about the Giant
staff with Dable, but I mean with Donald McDonald here,

(24:29):
like we're.

Speaker 3 (24:30):
Talking about could be like it's hit for him.

Speaker 4 (24:33):
Like this is enough excuses at this point and it
goes down to everything with two at the quarterback and
just everything. Like I just I'm really concerned about the
Dolphins outside of the von A chan and one is like,
I don't disagree much on Hill. I'm a little bit
more positive Hill than I am for Wattle, and I'm
down on Wattle. But the funny thing is is like
when I was looking at Wattle a few weeks ago,
and that was the first name that came to mind

(24:55):
when we were talking about this in the slack, is
that I know his AD has started to fall and
his expert consensus rank has started to fall, because I
remember where it was, and I remember that people are
talking positively. Ericson included, I'm not coming for Erickson saying
like he's talking positively about Wattle, but people are like, oh,
Wattle is a value, and like if he stays healthy
and everything, the opportunity is here and Tyreek Hills falling off.

(25:15):
But it seems to have cooled a little bit where
I could see I'm presenting at to say, I could
see myself coming around on Jalen Waddle if he continues
to slide back and kind of falls into now more
of like wide receiver thirty off the board, which before
we're talking about whide receiver.

Speaker 3 (25:28):
Twenty three twenty four.

Speaker 4 (25:30):
Is because I just have a feeling we're still focused
on that one year that Andrew's talking about and the
second part of it that comes to the Dolphins as
a whole. But third, at this point, we're now talking
four injuries to the knee and ankle on the one
leg on his right leg.

Speaker 3 (25:47):
If I'm not mistaken, and I'm just.

Speaker 4 (25:49):
Starting to get the feel just me. It's just like, like,
is a healthy Wattle a thing anymore? Like one hundred
percent healthy Wattle, like even if he's healthy, Like similar
to our talking about Javontelliams is like does that player
exist anymore? And I just have the hesitancy of like
Jalen Wattle being that guy. The opportunity is there, the
targets should be there given the depth chart. I just

(26:12):
don't know if Waddle is that peak three years ago
now Jalen Waddle that we know. I don't know if
this offense is going to be as good as it was.
I think the offense has been figured out a lot
as we watched that till we talk from a football perspective.
Last year, a big part of the Dolphins is that
the league adjusted, as the league will do. They said, well,
screw this, We're gonna stop trying to play you man.
We're still gonna stop trying to play you close. We're

(26:34):
just gonna drop back an umbrella coverage basically, and keep
everything in front of us in good luck trying to
get past us after the catch, because we're just gonna contain.
And they played contain and it stopped everybody across the board.
So I just have concern of the Dolphins as a whole,
and that falls into having concerns for both tire Kill
and Jalen Waddle. I do not want to take Jalen
Waddle as my second wide receiver as my third, then

(26:55):
I think the risk is worth the upside.

Speaker 5 (26:57):
So would you rather have Jacob?

Speaker 1 (27:00):
And I'm pulling it up now, so Tyreek Hill's wide
receiver fourteen and Wattle is wide receiver thirty one. That's
in consensus in HALFVPR. So would you rather take Hill
even at that you know, much higher cost?

Speaker 2 (27:14):
No?

Speaker 4 (27:14):
Actually, again, as I said, he keeps continuing to slide
back a little bit that being Wattle, So like at
that cost. I mean, now you're talking about the George
Pickens Calvin Ridley range, and I'm more okay with that
than Hill at that point. The bigger thing, too, is
a lot of times when we're talking about those thirty
wide receivers being in that fifth, sixth round, usually I'm
circling back to my running back. This comes down to

(27:34):
draft tendencies and avoiding this. What I have is I
have twenty six to forty for wide receivers, including Jalen Wattle.
I have an enormous Tier five just because there's so
many values that are think are.

Speaker 1 (27:46):
Equitable ericson kind of a similar question on the wild
side of things, if you're avoiding Hill, does that mean
that you are more aggressive on Waddle than Jake is
laying out?

Speaker 2 (27:56):
Yes, I'm more aggressive on Wattle. I think that Jake
laid out the case where the injuries are a real
thing and you can't tell from looking at his games
played because oh, he hasn't missed that many games. But
when you go back and you read the injury reports
leading up to all these games, Wattle is almost always
on all of these injury reports. So I think that's

(28:17):
part of the reason why you've seen his efficiency drop
off a little bit, especially last year. Again, quarterback issues aside.
You know how healthy was he, But I will say
at the end of the year he did flash a
little bit. You know, he went over ninety nine yards twice,
over thirteen Fantasy points per game. He commanded nine plus
targets in three of those last four games, and just
the body of work with Waddle is so good. Again.

(28:37):
Twenty twenty two, he was a wide receiver one. He
was a wide receiver one as a rookie, and he
did it in different ways. One year, it was gobbling
up a ton of volume before Tyreek Hill arrived. The
next year it was really strong efficiency. He's been a
wide receiver one with this quarterback and this play caller before,
so with that in his range of outcomes being a
wide receiver one when he's healthy, I think that he

(28:57):
is worth the price. And as Jake said, if the
price does fall enough where that injury concern is captured,
I think that it's worth the taking the shot on
a Jalen Wild while acknowledging yeah, this guy does get
banged up pretty often.

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Speaker 1 (30:35):
Got one more wide receiver each that the getting too
the quarterbacks and tight ends and the show ericson who
is your last wide receiver?

Speaker 2 (30:41):
Wide receiver Deebo Sanguel for the Washington Commanders last year
was really, really bad for Deebo Sanguel eight point five
fantasy points game. He went over twenty two receiving yards
one time in his last seven games played, and that
was despite Brandon Aiyuk's absence in the second half of
the season. I know Debo was battling through some illness,
playing through injuries, but that's what he does. He's always

(31:04):
banged up. He's on a brand new team. They traded
him for next to nothing to the Commanders, the forty
nine ers. They were going to cut Deebo Samuel, So
I just don't think that he is I mean, he's
on the back nine of his career. He's entering his
age twenty nine season, and I think that going to
a Cliff Kingsbury offense, where we've seen Cliff Kingsbury at
times struggle to come up with creative ways to use

(31:27):
dynamic playmakers in space, I feel like it took us
half a season to get Tara McLaurin out of one
spot on the outside, to kind of get him going
and move him around the formation a little bit more so,
I think that Deebo Samuel is just a name brand
with him. I think that if he's healthy, he can
probably start the season out, you know, pretty productively, especially
if Tera McLaurin, you know, has this holdout potentially go

(31:47):
into the season. But then worm, I think we talked
about some one of the other shows, Deebo sam will
be the number one guy on my cell high list
after week one if he rips off a big sixty
yard run after the catch touchdown, first guy on the list,
the trade high is going to be Deebo say so
for those reasons. Again, if I had to draft him
or he was on one of my teams, like I
would need to be thinking when can I flip this guy?
Because I've just seen this script play out so many

(32:08):
times with an older receiver on a brand new team
and usually doesn't end well.

Speaker 5 (32:12):
Yeah, I have nothing to add.

Speaker 1 (32:13):
We've talked about it in a recent show too, like
the Cliff Kingsbury point. I think it's a great one
in terms of, like, he's not the guy I trust
to use Debo in the way he needs to be used.

Speaker 5 (32:22):
I'm in strong agreement here, Jake. What do you think
about Debo as a fade As a fade, sure, but
as a wide receiver forwhere I think his ranking is
right now, I'm going to be in on that, but.

Speaker 4 (32:33):
Honestly, because it comes down to there's almost one hundred
and fifty targets between these also rans trying to be
the number two for Jane and Daniels in his rookie season.

Speaker 3 (32:41):
And I'm not saying like, oh, he's going to get one.

Speaker 4 (32:43):
Hundred and fifty targets, but we tried everything from Zacchiuz
to Brown to Brown again both of them, and just
all these options down. I mean, even Luke McCaffrey. And
I think zach Ertz is still going to get his
ninety ish targets, and Eckler, if he can stay healthy,
will be involved. But I think that he's the clear
number two. And I think that this does help McLaurin.

(33:04):
And I'm not saying Diebo's gonna come here and al
asudden turn into the Debo from the forty nine ers,
but let's also be honest, the DIBO from the forty
nine ers that everybody wants to happen again. Wasn't never
going to be a thing again anyway. That was a
one year anomalous situation for Deebo Samuel. But as a
wide receiver four, I'm gonna be in on it. And
that's really what it comes down to. In the names
that he's around. I have no problem with it. Now

(33:24):
if he climbs, because people are starting to say, like, oh, okay,
well he maybe's walking into one hundred and one hundred
and ten targets because he's the clear number two and
he gets up into the conversation of a top thirty,
then I'm out. I think that's where I would draw
the line. So but at this cost, I'm.

Speaker 1 (33:38):
In, Yeah, the cost isn't that prohibitive. I think that
is a fair counterpoint. I just would caution against anybody
who looks at him and says, like, oh, this late,
you know, maybe there's some real upside here, Like to
your point, it's been since twenty twenty one that he
had that epic season, which was a fantastic season obviously,
but I was, you know, four years ago at this point,

(34:00):
and I really don't think he's going to be like, get,
you know, getting to boost his receiving stats with the
rushing touchdowns that we've grown accustomed to when he's healthy. Like,
I just don't see that really happening in Washington, Like
I would set the over under a two and a
half rushing touchdowns this year, Like I just don't really
see them using him that way. And I think he
needs that to make up for the lack of receiving

(34:21):
production that has really been every year of his career.

Speaker 5 (34:23):
Except for twenty twenty one. So it's fair point of
the cost. Though, Let's go to the last receiver here, Chake,
who you got this one?

Speaker 4 (34:32):
Maybe you guys can tell me if I'm just an idiot,
because I do not get.

Speaker 5 (34:36):
The commentaries, will tell you if you're any.

Speaker 4 (34:38):
Okay, that's fair. How is Rashi Rice wide receiver nineteen?
Like speaking of things that are not a thing anymore?
Even if for she Rice was one hundred percent healthy,
which is still a question, even with sheer Rice is
not suspended plays the entire year, still a question. He's
not clearly the number one anymore. We're just discounting everything
Zaviy or Worthy did as a as a rookie. We're

(34:59):
just discount this roster up and down there, like they
have a multitude of options now where sure Rashia Rice
first read by Patrick Mahomes a lot again, that roster
Rashi Rice on this team is different than Rashi Rice
coming back to what he's coming back to. I mean
you can even include I don't think Royals is gonna
be much big of a thing, but like you have
him that they drafted it like maybe they get something
finally out of sky more Marquis Brown still in this team. Like,

(35:21):
I just don't see the path to Rashi Rice being
the clear, definitive, no questions asked number one option for
Patrick Mahomes, even if those other questions were answered with
injury and suspension. So would I take Rice?

Speaker 1 (35:37):
Sure?

Speaker 4 (35:37):
Would I take Rice over Deebo? Absolutely, because there's a
path to Rashia Rice being a wide receiver one still
that still could happen, but as wide receiver nineteen, No
way on Earth am I doing that? Like I like
the names that are he's in front of that I
would take like DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Chris olave I,
even Courtland Sutton and DeVante Smith and I could keep

(35:57):
going down they I just don't get why he's there.

Speaker 1 (36:01):
Ericson, I'm very curious to hear what you have to
say about this because we are in a slow draft
together right now, and you just took Xavier Worthy with
Rashi Rice still on the board.

Speaker 2 (36:11):
This is the player. I was most interested to see
what Jake was going to say, because I've definitely been
on the more pessimistic side of Rushie Rice and trying
to understand the upside case. Because that's why, Jake, that's
why I can tell you why people are drafting this
high is because of the upside, because of the three
games he had last year where he had a monster
target share. He was averaging nearly eighteen Fantasy points per game,

(36:32):
and we're just extrapolating that and saying, oh, this is
gonna be this is gonna be the seventeen game pace.
And this is where I think we get into so
much trouble when we're just taking these small sample sizes.
When this was before the Xavier Worthy breakout, that wasn't
even a thing. Zavior Worthy was a really, really young
rookie that didn't really know his place in the offense,
and it was Travis Kelson, I think the next best

(36:53):
receiver on the team at that time was jujusms Schuster.
I think that was the next guy that was running
routes for the Chiefs. So I echo your concerns and
hesitations about Orshe Rice. I get the appeal the upside case,
and that's why he's a very you know, boom or
bust type of proposition, and that's why he's going where
he's going. But I also have concerns about any guy

(37:14):
coming off a season ending injury and we're just gonna
pop him back in expect he's gonna just pick up
right where he left off. When does that really happen?
I feel like anytime it's a guy coming off a
season end injury, takes a month for him to kind of,
you know, get adjusted, feel mentally back to it. And
it's not even necessarily a physical limitation. It's oh my,
they're mentally Do I trust my knee, Do I trust
my leg or trust my hamstring to do all these

(37:35):
things that I was doing before I had a season
ending injury. So I'm also with you with being hesitant
on Rice and the fact, I mean, I just I'd
rather take Worthy man like that's where we saw Worthy
was the guy down the stretch. Worthy was the guy
that showed that he could win in multiple ways. You know,
he can take the top off the ball, and he
also took over the Rice role when Rice missed time
and was really effective. So yeah, that's kind of how

(37:57):
I feel about.

Speaker 4 (37:57):
The big play here, as you well know, is to say,
let somebody else draft or she Rice and then come
knocking on the door after week three or four and
be like, hey, I know you're tired of them. I'll
take them and then buy low and there you go.
Then you get reshit Rice for the second half of
the season.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
I think the price is the big thing with that. That's
what it is, because we're not getting any like. There's
no discount, there's no injury discount, there's no suspension like
potential discount. It's locked and loaded. He's a top twenty
wide receiver. He's gonna pick up where he was last year.

Speaker 4 (38:24):
You said, Rashi Rice, wide receiver twenty eight, twenty nine,
somewhere around this.

Speaker 3 (38:28):
I wouldn't even brought.

Speaker 5 (38:29):
Him up, would you.

Speaker 1 (38:30):
Jake also draft Worthy ahead of him. He didn't listen
with the names earlier, But is he in that.

Speaker 4 (38:35):
I actually have them back to back, yeah, and part
of but as I threw the caveat in my rankings
on the Athletic like, I actually explained some of the
wide receiver rankings and one of them was, as of today,
I would take Worthy over Rice because of all the
questions we still have. This is still only June, the
suspension and the injury. Even if the suspension gets completely
wiped out, like that's just not even a thing anymore.
I'd probably only move Rice up a few spots just

(38:58):
because I do think there's a slightly higher ceiling than Worthy,
but he would still probably top out only a spot
or two in front of Worthy, because I don't know
that we're not leading into a season where it's they
have similar target shares and what Ericson just brought up,
which I think gets overlooked a lot by people who
don't know And I know everybody watching the show probably
knows the game as much as we do, but I'm
saying a lot of people might see it. People are

(39:19):
box score looking, We'll see Xavier Worthy and the yards
per catch and not really realizing a lot of it
was short to intermediate that he did after the catch
and was kind of what Rachid Rice was bringing before
he got hurt.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
Let's go to the quarterbacks that we're avoiding here. We've
got well, I would say one each, but Jake kind
of picked a whole category fifteen. Yeah, so what Jake
picked was any non running quarterback besides Burrow. Erickson picked
somebody who actually falls into that category. So ericson, why
don't you talk about Jared Goff who was your pick first?
And they'll get into Jake kind of avoiding this demographic

(39:52):
as a whole.

Speaker 2 (39:52):
Well, I mean credit to Jake because he hit on
all the bus because that's what busts are. They're the
guys that we over evaluate that don't add any value
with their legs, except Joe Burrow because he's the most
elite passer and he's kind of exception to the rule.
So I'm glad that Jake added him there. But Jared
Goff basically checks off all the boxes of a quarterback
you don't want to draft. You're drafting him based on

(40:14):
what he did last year when it was a career
high in terms of passing touchdown rate, six point nine
percent touchdown right in twenty twenty four was a career high.
When you look at the Fantasy Sprus Touchdown Progression Report.
Guess at the top of the list, Jared Goff. You
have one of the toughest strength of schedules. You have
him now playing outdoors as opposed to last year when
all of his games are basically inside. Last year his

(40:36):
splits weeks eleventh through eighteen, he averaged over twenty five
Fantasy points per game. Before that, it was sixteen point
five points per game. QB two level production before the
defense basically had all of those injuries. You're losing Ben Johnson,
that's a concern. We have more ships across the offensive line.
We just found out that Frank Ragno, the center, the
longtime center for the Lions, he's retired. He's not coming back.

(40:58):
So the lines are really now thin up on the
interior of their offensive line. And they were the second
healthiest offense last year. We talk about team level health progression,
they're probably not going to be as healthy. So if
one of one they get one more injury on that
offensive line, now you're running into real issues with Jared Goff,
who we know he can have one of the best team.
He can do executly did last year and he's still

(41:18):
not a top five fantasy quarterback. So I think you're
just drafting all risk, all some things that are going
to go badly for Jared Goff when there are so
many better quarterback picks on the board. So I can
say very confidently I'm going to have basically zero of
Jared Goff and any of my fantasy teams this year
because he just so clearly sticks out as this is
a quarterback that's going to regress and he's not going

(41:38):
to be worth his ADP.

Speaker 5 (41:40):
I think it's worth highlighting two on golf.

Speaker 1 (41:42):
Just looking at the game logs from last year, like
the first thirteen weeks of the season, he finished eighteenth,
twenty fifth, nineteenth tenth, twenty twenty seven, fifty. It was
it was a very hot end of the season for
weeks fourteen to seventeen. So in the fantasy playoffs he
was QB six, QB two, QB three, QB eight, But
the numbers in those games he threw for three plus
touchdowns in every one of those games. He threw over

(42:04):
three hundred yards in three of those four games, and
of course he had the game against Buffalo. We had
four hundred ninety four yards at five touchdowns, like like
I don't want to overreact to a very hot finish,
and I don't want to underreact to Ben Johnson leaving.
I think it is relevant that Jared Goff, by far,
his most successful Fantasy seasons have been the years with

(42:25):
guys like Ben Johnson and Sean McVay, and we don't
know what the new play caller is gonna look like.
I don't want to be the one taking the risk
where he's going, which is QB ten. The guys going
after him or around him.

Speaker 5 (42:35):
You know, Kyler Murray.

Speaker 1 (42:36):
And bow Nicks are right ahead of him. We know
those guys are gonna run right after him. Is justin
Herbert year two and the Greg Roman offense, Caleb Williams
is all these better talent around him, justin Fields, who
we all agree is gonna run a Ton Purdy, Dak
Jordan Love, Drake May, CJ. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence. Those are
all the other names in Tier three around Jared Goff,
and I would just much rather wait and take one
of those guys than be the guy who says no,

(42:58):
I think he's a different guy, and I do think
Jared Goff is a different quarterback than he was in
those early rams years. Of course, like I don't think
he is only a Ben Johnson merchant, but I am.
I am not ignoring that factor. And again, he doesn't run,
and there's just so many other names going later that
I like more. So I think I will basically have
no Jared Goff this year.

Speaker 2 (43:18):
To your point too, about where he's going. This is
the quarterback tier, the middle tier where they go in ADP.
This is where all the bus quarterbacks come from, this
QB A to QB thirteen range. It's the middle tier
where we're drafting these quarterbacks base. They're getting propped up
by last year's touchdown numbers, but they're more likely to
finish closer to the guys behind them than the guys

(43:40):
in front of them. We're not expecting Jared Goff to
outscore any of these elite passers, so why are we
drafting him right after the elite passers. But he's more
likely to finish like a Trevor Lawrence, like a CJ. Stroud,
And to your point, those guys go so much cheaper,
so it so be a different conversation if Jared Goff
was QB eighteen, where I have him ranked, I would
sure I'll draft Gary Goff whatever, we're baking all the risk,
but he's not. He's going as QB ten, QB eleven,

(44:02):
which is why not.

Speaker 1 (44:03):
Well's one of those things too, like there's such a
clear top five, like somebody has to go in those
first few quarterbacks after that that elite tier that I
just don't want to be the first one to draft
one of those quarterbacks. So it's first handful of quarterbacks
because I really think from QB six to QB eighteen,
you can make a compelling case for any of those
guys to finish as a top six quarterback this year.

(44:23):
So what once you get past Lamar, Allen Daniels, Hurts,
and Burrow. I just don't want to be drafting a
quarterback early if I'm not getting one of those top
five and I say early relative to that next group
of like twelve names. So yeah, I'm fully on board
with GoF Jake, you of course picked the whole group
of non running quarterbacks besides Burrow.

Speaker 5 (44:42):
Walk us through that pick.

Speaker 4 (44:44):
Yeah, because Joe Burrow last year was actually the first
quarterback over twenty points per game not getting at least
forty points from the running side only, and that was
the first since Tom Brady. And to talk about Tom
Brady is the Joe Burrow thing is that you you
are a prolific passer. We can count on your passing
numbers every single year. And I don't even want to

(45:06):
discount Joe Burrow because last year it was only two
hundred yards. It wasn't again, it wasn't forty points from
the running side, but he still chipped in and he
actually has chipped in forty points a few years ago
on the running side of the things, so he still
has a little bit there that similar to Baker Mayfield
last season, there's a little bit chipped in. Baker Mayfield
ran for over three hundred and a few touchdowns. So
Baker Mayfield will probably be the closest to not falling

(45:28):
into this group. But similar to CJ. Stroud last year,
who consensus had as a top six quarterback coming off
as rookie season, similar to Dak Prescott that's been up
and down and up and down and up and down,
and then you brought up Jared goff.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
Is.

Speaker 4 (45:41):
The reason they're so volatile is because it has to
all come from their arm. When you don't run the ball,
when you don't chip in the forty points or even
more on the rushing side of things. For fantasy. You
added volatility, and you end in having to be prolific.
You have to throw forty five hundred yards, thirty five touchdowns,
maybe thirty two at minimum, but you have to be terrific.

(46:01):
And if you have any type of a step back, CJ.
Stroud being last year the perfect example, and again Dak
Prescott right before him. If you just fall off just
a little bit, heck, we could talk rock party like
you just fall off a little bit. And it's not
like you fell off like these running quarterbacks and became oh,
well he was QB three, but he fell to QB seven. No,
you go from like QB six to QB twenty one.

(46:22):
It's enormous drop off. And the biggest thing is I'm
glad you pulled in the Jared Golf thing to Erickson's point,
because you rattled off the fact that all these three
touchdown games and you could argue that's prolific passing, but
still couldn't even crack the top ten on some of
those weeks because there's the yards didn't come with the
touchdowns or vice versa. And that's just What it comes
down to is I'm going to be way out on

(46:43):
all of these quarterbacks, so much so that I'm way
above consensus on justin fields because I'm just going to
bank on the fact that, hey, he has a thousand
yards rushing upside. If he can just be Daniel Jones
as a passer, which all it means is throwing for
three thousand yards and fifteen touchdowns, Guess what the thousand
yards and the rushing side of things means, He's gonna.

Speaker 3 (47:00):
A top six to seven quarterback.

Speaker 4 (47:01):
I will take another chance on Anthony Richardson, even if
he doesn't have the job. I will take chances on
Bryce Young that maybe he's bringing in some rushing upside
that we never saw before, even at Alabama, but late
last season he started calling his own number, even at
the goal line.

Speaker 3 (47:16):
And I'm just gonna take.

Speaker 4 (47:17):
Chances on those guys versus any of the brock parties,
are any of the Jared Golison the rest.

Speaker 1 (47:23):
I'm not making the case for this, but I will
to at least ask the question, is there a case
to be made for maybe even including Joe Burrow in
the category of just avoid all non rushing quarterbacks because
he had such a great season last year, like, is
it fair to think that there might be some aggression
if you look at his career before last year, he'd

(47:43):
only finished higher than QB eight one time prior to
this last season, and it was the year he rushed
for five touchdowns, which went a long win towards helping
with that, like forty nine hundred passing yards last year,
forty three touchdowns under ten interceptions, Like Joe Burr is
a very very good quarterback, like this is not to
knock him, but as a top five guy, like I

(48:04):
think that's the appropriate ranking for him. But is there
a case to be made that instead of Joe Burrow
at fifth because you know he does not give the
rushing that you should just wait for one of these
rushing guys. And I'd rather take justin fields as QB
thirteen instead of Joe Burrawy's QB five.

Speaker 5 (48:17):
Is there a case to be made for that Jake depending.

Speaker 4 (48:20):
On when he goes overall? I don't think so, because
you still have three seasons outside his injury season, three
seasons of twenty plus points per game, which that's why
I say he put some prolific category of Tom Brady.
It comes down to even Tom Brady is worse, Like
it had to be god awful worse of a season.
I don't think that's in Joe Burrow's wheelhouse, especially with
the weapons he has. And then even if it's only
two hundred yards and three on the ground, it's enough

(48:42):
of a little tick up because he is so prolific.
But that being said, I do have him in a
tier of his own. He's sitting there right by himself,
after the Big four and before this next group of
all these names of Baker Mayfield, Drake may Kyler Murray
and the rest. But I think that if overall, like
if you're gonna say somebody, the first four quarterbacks go
and then all of Suddeny's like, ooh, I gotta take

(49:02):
Joe Burrow on the fourth because all those quarterbacks went
in the third or in the fifth somewhere around there,
then I'd be like, yeah, I think at that point
it's a little pricey just because there is a slight risk.
I don't think a lot, but there's enough. The biggest
thing I come down to is not it's not our
expert consensus rank. It's ADP currently as of today, has
Hurts behind Burrow. That's the answer to your question of like,
what's absurd that should not be happening.

Speaker 5 (49:24):
Eric, So let's go to the tight ends they're avoiding.

Speaker 2 (49:26):
Here.

Speaker 5 (49:27):
We'll go quickly on.

Speaker 1 (49:28):
This because I want to leave time for some speed
round stuff at the end of the episode.

Speaker 5 (49:31):
But who are who is the tight end you're avoiding?

Speaker 2 (49:33):
Oh, we're gonna go quickly. Then I probably shouldn't have
picked a Ravens player, So I guess that's my fault. Sorry,
sorry to the producers. Mark Andrews is my tight end.

Speaker 1 (49:40):
I agree with you said, Okay, this is it like
a pickah.

Speaker 2 (49:46):
I was really big on Mark Andrews last year, and
it's just it was so painful to just watch every
single week until the second touchdown. Yeah, Untilly scored score,
scoring a bunch of touchdowns from week five onward. Again
finished this fantasy tight end five. But the right there
was nowhere near a top five finish because again I
had him on all these leagues. He was tight end
ten in points per game, he was tight end twenty

(50:07):
one in terms of expected points per game. And I
just think that we're just waiting for these other guys
to take on bigger role. I mean Isaiah Likely. Coaching
staff loves him, super talented guy. I think he's going
to take on a bigger role. They're talking about ways
to get him more involved. DeAndre Hopkins still can play
a role man. If he's going to have any role
on the team, where would it be Probably in the
red zone. Okay, so that's taking away potentially one or

(50:29):
two more scores from Mark Andrews. I know that he
is Lamar's guy in the red zone. And is he
going to score touchdowns? Yes, but he's a touchdown reliant
tight end that you then have to draft this tight
end six. He's tight ended six in ECR tight End
eight and EIGHTP. He was barely a top ten tight
end last year. Again, he finished there overall because of
the games he played, but points per game, he wasn't

(50:50):
a difference maker for you. He had to score or
else he was going to be a bust in your lineup.
And that just puts him with every other tight end. Again,
if you score, great, if you don't, you're a bust. Okay,
I can get those tight ends so much later than
Mark Andrews. And again, if he gets hurt, Isaiah Likely,
I feel more confident about, Oh yeah, this guy's going
to be an elite tight end producer. So I'd rather
just take a shot on Isaiah Likely maybe Andrews doesn't

(51:11):
stay healthy. He's a little bit older, So yeah, I'm
out on Mark Andrews.

Speaker 1 (51:15):
I do think he will still score touchdowns, but I
agree like in any game he doesn't score a touchdown,
he will hurt you in fantasy.

Speaker 5 (51:22):
I don't think he's he will have the catches. I
don't think he'll have the yards tight end basically, yeah, right.

Speaker 2 (51:27):
But he's but he's an expen's.

Speaker 1 (51:30):
He's not like a Tier one difference speaker anymore. Like
I'm not worried about Hopkins in terms of like taking
away like Derek Henry is the only reason to think
that Andrews isn't going to be like the first option
to score a touchdown every time they get close to
the goal line, Like in any series where Derek Henry
is not scoring a touchdown, if they're getting close, they're
looking to Andrews. But that's it, Like that is where

(51:50):
he's going to give you the value.

Speaker 2 (51:51):
I would say too. I mean, ra Sean Bateman had
a lot of red zone targets last year too, so.

Speaker 5 (51:55):
I mean I think he will have more this year.

Speaker 2 (51:57):
Like last year was pretty close. I mean, you know,
I think had eleven touchdowns, but Babman had nine.

Speaker 4 (52:03):
You wanted to pull the pin on the grain and
throw it in here and run away as I say this,
This is why I almost put Za Flowers in the
list because wide receiver thirty five and fantasy points per
game last year, and yet everybody's like, oh, like drafting
him as a wide receiver two again, not that Hopkins
is gonna take a ton, but there's a litany options
on this team. Oh, by the way, that Lamar Jackson
guy worm knows this, forty plus touchdowns and he still

(52:25):
only was wide receiver thirty five and points per game. Like,
can we just stop and stop with this year after
year after year after year of like, oh, the Ravens
have somebody, they're gonna be top twenty, Like no, this
is just who the Ravens are. They they win by
sharing it, and it's just it's what they do well.

Speaker 1 (52:41):
I will be I will be drafting Labar, I'll be
drafting Derek Henry, and I might be taking flyers on
Bateman if he's going really late I will not be
drafting a lot of Mark Andrews.

Speaker 5 (52:49):
I will not be drafting about his a Flowers.

Speaker 1 (52:50):
Like I am with you guys on on fading those guys, Jake,
who's your tight end you're avoiding?

Speaker 4 (52:56):
Yeah, it's funny. I thought about the quarterback thing. I
basically should have said any not top three tight end,
and then just I'll just take whoever's left at the
end of the draft, because that's what if I miss
on the top three, including Kittle, which I love Kittle's value,
I'm just like, you know what, I'm just gonna wait
and see who's there in the last round, because one
of those names that's going higher than I think you
should go is Jake Ferguson. Like, like, Jake Ferguson barely
was relevant last year, and now you have the trade

(53:17):
of George Pickens and people are like, oh, Jake Ferguson, Yeah,
I'm still gonna take him as a fringe tight end one. No, Like, dude,
what was he ericson? Are you looking at it right now?
Because you have a quizical face.

Speaker 3 (53:27):
What was he like tight end?

Speaker 4 (53:28):
Nineteen in points per game or something ridiculously low last year?
I know it was bad. And again I go back
to the fact that I even with Dak, it wasn't
that good. And then I know without Dak people are
gonna make that argument. But I just don't want a
tight end. Who's the third option? Clearly? Who was volume
reliant Evan Ingram you could throw into this conversation on

(53:48):
the Broncos like all these tight ends that you basically
need one hundred and twenty targets to become even top ten,
I'm just not gonna take. So Jake Ferguson kind of
falls and it's kind of like the Jared Goff of
tight end.

Speaker 3 (54:00):
I'm just out on these guys.

Speaker 1 (54:02):
Let's get to the speed round here. To wrap things up,
I pose the question on x slash Twitter, is this
player a trap? Who are some of the guys you're
fading and avoiding this season? The land minds you guys
want to be avoiding. So these are the answers we
got I'll give to you. We're up against some of
the clock, so just very quickly like yes, no, you
agree or disagree, and then we'll move on. I just
want to run through these since I did ask everybody

(54:23):
on social by the way, some of the answers we
got we already talked about in the show. Deeba, Samuel
Tyreek Hill, Ken Walker. All were submitted by users as well,
so they agreed with us on those guys. A lot
of Tier two running backs, so the first one here,
Ashton Genty, Ericson.

Speaker 2 (54:37):
I'm in drafting, yes, Jake, and at the.

Speaker 5 (54:40):
End of the first round, Christian McCaffrey.

Speaker 4 (54:43):
Jake one hundred percent and as long as we know
he's healthy from day one that we have time to
find that out. Ericson no caveas yes, and Devon a
chan Erickson and Jake not in at us costs, but
in if that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (54:59):
Jonathan Taylor in second round. Out some tier three running
backs as well, James Cook, Rickson.

Speaker 2 (55:09):
Not till he signs that contract. So right now I'm
out Jake.

Speaker 3 (55:12):
I'm in because his ADP isn't that high.

Speaker 5 (55:15):
Jake, Chase Brown, Oh, I'm in.

Speaker 3 (55:18):
I'm above concessus quite a bit.

Speaker 5 (55:19):
Erickson always Chase Brown, season, Alvin Kamara Rickson out Jake,
and he's the only option.

Speaker 3 (55:29):
Shuck's gonna be a thing. I can't believe it.

Speaker 5 (55:31):
Handful of wide receivers here, Jake DeVante Adams.

Speaker 4 (55:36):
I'm in. I think there's a non zero chance he
could push Nakua for a similar points per game number.

Speaker 1 (55:41):
Ericson very much in, Deebro very much in as well.
By the way, if you look at his rankings, Travis Hunter, Erickson,
I'm gonna say no, I'm out, Jake strong In, strong in.

Speaker 5 (55:53):
How about Roma Dunes day Jake.

Speaker 3 (55:56):
Ooh uh hesitant.

Speaker 1 (55:58):
In Rickson and Michael Pittman Rickson and out, Chris a
lave Jake and Erickson out out.

Speaker 5 (56:14):
He does one of these sayings, oh last one tight end.

Speaker 1 (56:18):
You knew somebody was going to suggest it. Kyle Pitts
Ericson in or out?

Speaker 2 (56:24):
Not until he's on a new team and not injured
itself out. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (56:27):
He also, by the way, there was a report earlier
today as we were recording this that he has a
strain in his foot and that's why he's not practicing it. Otah,
Jake in or out of, Kyle Fitch.

Speaker 4 (56:35):
Oh here, I'll give you this. He had more points
per game than Jake Ferguson.

Speaker 3 (56:38):
I looked it up.

Speaker 4 (56:38):
He was tight in twenty nine. Jake Ferguson, Uh, where
is Kyle Pitts going what's his ADP.

Speaker 2 (56:45):
He's a tough hundred.

Speaker 5 (56:46):
I'll pull it up up here.

Speaker 1 (56:48):
He ranked, He's ranked tight end seventeen. He is his
ADP is also tight end seventeen seventeen.

Speaker 4 (56:55):
At that, I'll take a fly because he would be
my last pick of the draft.

Speaker 3 (56:58):
I'd be in on that, and he gets us a
tight on one again.

Speaker 1 (57:01):
No, all right, we'll go ahead and wrap up on
you always fun Kyle Pits discussion. Thanks everybody for tuning in.
Those are the players real avoiding. Hopefully we'll come back
the next time we do a show together. We can
bring some positivity for Jake and ericson.

Speaker 5 (57:12):
I'm Ryan warmly. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you
next time.

Speaker 1 (57:15):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best free way to
support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple
podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash.

Speaker 5 (57:26):
Review or on Spotify.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros,
and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
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FantasyPros - DON'T STEP ON THESE LANDMINES | Dangerous Players You Should Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1585)

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