FantasyPros - High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Ep. 1678) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined today by Derek Brown and by Tom Strachan. Guys,
we are talking wide receiver breakout candidates, one of everybody's
favorite topics every single season, because these are often guys
that end up sort of defining the season. They are
guys that end up winning you your league oftentimes our

(00:22):
breakout candidates, particularly at wide receiver. It's very fun to
hit on the right guy here when you can. So
we've got a couple different categories here, gonna run through
about a dozen names. We've kind of designated these as
second year guys. We're looking at breakout guys that are
maybe currently behind in alpha, that could you really take
a step forward in the right opportunity. And then we're

(00:44):
kind of gonna wrap with what we have designated league
winners hiding in playing sit. So we're gonna hit on
all that throughout today's episode. As a reminder, all of
our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tears can be
found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Let's dive right, guys,
We're gonna start with those second year guys deebro who
do you have for us?

Speaker 2 (01:04):
Man?

Speaker 3 (01:04):
The guy that I want to make sure I'm leaving
almost every single draft with and I've done to this
point is Ricky Pearsall. And people that have been tuning
in for all these offseason shows got to know where
I'm going with this. I mean, Piersoll flashed in the
final two weeks of last year wide receiver seven, Wide
receiver fourteen, and weekly scoring Crush had a thirty percent
first read target share two point eight four yards per

(01:27):
route run. The big thing for Ricky that really submitted
this for me was I went back and watched all
of his all twenty two from the preseason so far,
and you see the growth in both. He looks more
explosive of the line, looks a crisper in and out
of his breaks, and the rapport with Brock Purdy has

(01:48):
grown leafs and bounds like based off of camp and
the offseason workouts and stuff. I mean, there's one play
that I keep going back to versus the Raiders, where
you see Piersalls running across or going across the field
and he's gonna get washed out in his own coverage.
Party breaks open and Pearsaw just stops his route, sits
down in the middle of his own coverage and was

(02:08):
like party knew he was going to do it, and
laces him for the perfect throw. And it's like that's rapport.
That is what offseason work looks like on an NFL field,
the ability for both these guys to be on the
same page. And now everything is coalescing around Pearsaw in
that offense, like he's gonna be the guy that is
competing with George Kittle for the team leading targets. Second

(02:29):
year of breakout is here, boys.

Speaker 1 (02:32):
His real time ADP, which you can find on Fantasy
Pros is wide receiver thirty five. Where should he be ranked?

Speaker 3 (02:39):
Debro? I just moved him up yet again because I
want to make sure that, like with real time ADP,
I'm staying ahead of consensus and not like ridiculously aggressively,
but I do. I have moved him up to wide
receiver twenty six.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Oh okay, so that is significantly higher than ADP. Tom, What
do you think?

Speaker 2 (02:57):
Yeah, I mean, I agree with a lot of what
Debro's saying, Like I definitely want to see this breakout.

Speaker 3 (03:02):
I wasn't.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
I'm not quite as aggressive because I didn't quite see
as much last year as I wanted to. And obviously
all this is caveat by saying, of course he was
recovering from an incredible sort of like freak accident injury.
But he didn't really earn targets at an astronomical rate
last year. You know, averaged zero point one five targets
per out run. That was seventy seventh among wide receivers

(03:23):
in the time period that he came back from Week
seven to the end of the season. In that point,
we did have games where like George Kittle missed out,
there was no Brandon Aiyuk, and you know, he had
games where he was goose egging and getting nothing. And
the huge blow up game in Week seventeen which helped
somebody win two million dollars or whatever it was on
Bestball Manior on Underdog. That was against the Lions, who

(03:43):
will have the second most fantasy points to wide receivers.
So there's just little holes that I can poke in it.
But I do believe that he can take the leap
this year, having a much cleaner off season, and I
think that anytime that the Niners put first round draft
capitol into a player I've got to have some faith
that there's a lot of talent there that they can
really maximize.

Speaker 1 (04:02):
Almost identical real time ADP for Ricky Pearsal and Chris Alave, Tom,
who would you prefer those two go?

Speaker 2 (04:09):
Ricky Piersol. I'm not in Saints whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
I'm assuming Dro that's very easy for you. I wouldn't
even ask, honestly, I know you're going fear Saw.

Speaker 3 (04:17):
I think the line is probably better Ricky Pearsall or
James and Williams.

Speaker 2 (04:22):
Guys, I'm going jam over see.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
I have Ricky Pearsall right above him.

Speaker 1 (04:27):
Williams is a little more than a full round hire
in ADP, so they are. There's like a little bit
of a gap there. That one I think is interesting
because you can paint kind of the upside picture for
both of them if you want.

Speaker 3 (04:39):
I mean, I'm on team Piersoll for that one, only because,
like as Tom was kind of talking about, we hear
about all this stuff about JMO and the off season
and stuff like that, do we really think he's gonna
like take another step and become like a twenty four
percent target cheer kind of guy. I just don't know
if I see that So that's again kind of where
I'm splitting here is here.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
There is a name that I'm going to ask you
about this name and to Piersal, but it's a name
that's going to come up later in the show. So
I'm going to save it for when we get to
that point because I think it's a really good head
to head who would you prefer? But I think Piersall
is a great pick, Like I want to get him
in a lot of places. Like the simple to put
a bow on this conversation is you should invest in
Ricky Piersall. This is a bet worth making this year.

Speaker 3 (05:17):
Yep, agreed, Tom.

Speaker 1 (05:19):
Who's your first second year player?

Speaker 2 (05:21):
It's Xavier Worthy. Now, obviously today we finally got the
news that Russia Rice is going to be suspended for
six games of the season, But it should have been
a case of before now that Xavier Worthy's ADP was
going up. We knew for a little while that this
was the kind of length of suspension that we were
looking at. And while Rashi Rice's ADP dipped a little bit,
Xavier Worthy's was higher. And then when we got the

(05:43):
news of it Russia Rice might not get suspended, it
dipped and it's never really come back up. But I
just think that he's primed because by the time that
Rashi Rice comes back, he'll have missed for the last
twenty three games, including the playoffs that the Chiefs have played.
That's a huge amount of time for Xavi Worthy to
be able to establish himself, develop a role, for Andy
Reid to learn how he can maximize him. And I think,
you know, it's fair to say that we've plenty of

(06:05):
fans out there of Andy Reid in the way that
he can maximize talent. Last year, the one kind of
part of Xavier Worthy's profile that was missing was the
downfield threat that we thought we could see. He had
seventeen passes center his way of twenty plus yards last
year and only caught three of them, but it was
a forty one percent catchable target rate on those targets,
which ranked sixty first among wide receivers with ten plus

(06:26):
deep targets. All off season, Patrick Mahomes has been going
on and on and on about how much of an
emphasis he's put on developing the deep ball better now. Obviously,
Matt Nagi has been a bit of a curse on
Patrick Mahomes since he came back to the Chiefs, and
maybe it doesn't transpire, but I've got to believe that
Patrick mahomes the best quarterback like that possibly ever, you know,
definitely the best quarterback in pure football terms in the

(06:49):
NFL right now. Can get that going. And I just
think that it doesn't necessarily need to be Xavier Worthy
or Rashie Rice, but of a price to Xavier Worthy's
app right now in redraft to get you off, it's
a strong stop that I'm very much buying.

Speaker 1 (07:02):
Debro. You have been the low man Onworthy in our
staff rankings in ECR he is sorry, I've flipped off
that page. Will you have him at thirty six? Ericson
twenty one fits at twenty three, so that's significantly lower.
I got to pull it up here at ECR He's
wide receiver at twenty six, so you're about ten spots
lower than her on on your ranking on Worthy. What

(07:25):
is it that you're not seeing here?

Speaker 3 (07:27):
So in real time ADP, he's around with the boys
of ranking in wide receiver twenty four. I just to me,
I don't see any meat on the bone where you're
drafting him there, Like I don't see him coming back
and being like producing as a top fifteen wide receiver.
Does the Rashive Rice missing six games definitely help him? Yes,
helps him a ton because he's gonna be in the
Rahi Rice roll and he hasn't seen like he hasn't

(07:48):
produced in anything but the Rashi Rice roll in Manufacturer
touches close to the line of scrimmage. I know Tom
pointed to Patrick Mahomes struggles with the deep ball. I
will echo that, but also add on top of it
when he's at when Rashi Rice comes back, Exavier Worthy's
not going to play in the Reshi Rice role. He's
going to play the field stretcher role. And if Mahomes
doesn't bounce back, he can talk about it all he

(08:11):
freaking wants to. It's not going to make it any
more accurate on deep ball as much as he talks
about it in the freaking media. Matt Naggey's not going anywhere.
So Mahomes and I want to put this in context
for people that are just now tuning back into shows.
Mahomes has been a bottom ten level deep ball throw
over the last two years, so he could talk about it.
I want to see it actually happen and the part

(08:33):
about Worthy that really gets me, man, is that we
didn't see him separate as a downfield threat. I mean,
in weeks one through twelve, when he was the deep
threat one hundred and twenty four or wide receivers, he
was ninety six in separation, one hundred and eleventh in
route win rate. And then in the Rashi rice role,
he wasn't that much better. He was seventy fifth in
that or at least if you zoom out overall, excuse me,

(08:55):
if you zoom out overall and put all of this
stuff together, seventy fifth in separate, eighty six on the route
win rate. So he's not getting schemed up targets, which
he will get for six games. And that's why I
bumped him up into the wide receiver three range. I
just don't see where things like. I feel like we're
looking at everything for Worthy through rose colored glasses. And
if this wasn't the Kansas City Chiefs and he wasn't

(09:16):
tied to Patrick Mahomes, that is writing a lot of
checks for Worthy that I don't know if he can
catch because he doesn't have the size also to be
a red zone threat outside of scheme touch.

Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, I mean I definitely agree he needs to play tougher,
but I just think, like, you know what we saw
from him down to stretch last year, and this is
part of my argument, but like he's going to have
established a role. Maybe, yes, he gets moved out of
a Rashie Rice roll, but he was averaging fifteen point
six PPR points from Week eleven, which was to wide
receiver nineteen in that time, and he only saw free
end zone targets in that time. If he can develop

(09:46):
into more of a touchdown score, then that's how he
truly becomes a great player in fantasy football.

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Speaker 1 (11:15):
All right, we have another second year player here that
you guys picked the same one because you couldn't come
to any kind of agreement and split the baby. You
guys both had to have your guy Debro. Why is
this Europe? And by the way, I will say Tom
got to the sheet first, so really Tom picked him first,
and then he goes, I couldn't possibly be bothered to

(11:36):
come up with another name, so I'm going to steal
this name I did.

Speaker 3 (11:39):
Here's the thing. I didn't feel enough conviction in any
other second year wide receiver to sit here and throw
the names out of here, because I don't want to
be disingenuous to our audience and I want to give
people real players that I truly believe in. And in
that point, I'm going to let Tom kick this off
because he again, he got to the sheet first. This
is his dude. And I'm adding on top of that,
although I will throw my hat the ring for being

(12:01):
amongst the og coke heads in the room.

Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, and I'll say, like I was slow to Jalen
Cocer last year, he wasn't somebody that I was drafting everywhere.
You know, I play a lot of best ball and
I'm always looking at these late round dart throws, and
this year I have been hammering Jalen Cocer in the
late rounds because the writing's been on the wall. It's
been so obvious from the coach speak over the last
few weeks. Like you go back to I pull this
quote from the coach speak index Discord Dave Canalis. We're

(12:27):
going to play the best guys, the guys that we
can count on, the guys that made plays for guys
that make the catch. Jalen has really showed to be
one of the more reliable guys that we have, and
he makes strong players on the ball and they want
to get him out there, Like Jalen Coca is always
going to be a little bit boom or bust for
fantacy on the nature of it. The way that he wins,
which is downfield, Like he had the twelve highest catch

(12:47):
rate on past his fifteen plus yards downfield among wide
receivers with ten or more targets. That's a really impressive return.
What I would like to see is him developing a
bit more and getting some easier stuff and maybe we
see that because for the second player in a row,
we're talking about a guy who had significant news today
with Adam Field and being traded to the Vikings. The
fact that the Panthers, who are desperately trying to surround

(13:08):
Bryce Young with more talent, with more players who can
play to a strong ability, felt comfortable doing that speaks
volumes to what they've got from him. I think overall
we're going to see a huge uptick in this offense
because of Tete Rowa. That's going to be infinitely better
than what the situation was last year. And I just
think that Jalen Cocher is a better player of Venzavier Lagetty.

(13:29):
You had better yards per route run. He was consistently
best separator, and he turned tags into production at a
better rate vin Xavier lagett did.

Speaker 1 (13:37):
He's also basically free looking. At real time ADP, he's
wide receiver seventy six, one hundred and sixty third. Overall,
that's what like a fourteenth or fifteenth round pick. Some
of the names with similar again not ADP that you'll
see in your drafting real time ADP when drafts are
actually happening within the last day, in the last week,
His ADP is amongst other names at receiver like Tyler Lockett,

(14:00):
Pat Bryant, Quentin Johnston, Darius Slayton, Jalen McMillan, who is
going to be injured for a large chunk of the season,
has a similar ADP to him. Jack Bash who is
not impressed. Michael Wilson, I mean.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
Like, so little upside?

Speaker 1 (14:13):
Yeah, So what is the upside for Coker? Debro Like,
what is like, Hey, this actually does really hit. What's
the upside? Uh?

Speaker 3 (14:20):
So I moved him up. He is my wide receiver
fifty two right now. I have him in the one
twenties right now. And the upside is that, first of all,
he is going to be from the word go, and
I'm not being hyperbolic about this, he is the Carolina
Panthers wide receiver too. I emphatically agree with Tom on this.
He out targeted xavierly Get last year. He's going to

(14:41):
do it again this year because nothing has changed. If anything,
Coker has gotten even better. And the upside is what
we saw last year. Like in the six games he
played with Bryan Shung at least sixty eight percent of
the snaps, he had three games where he was a
top thirty six scorer in PPR points. On the week,
he earned an eighteen percent target chair, He had one
point eight nine yards per route run and almost a

(15:03):
twenty four percent first reach. Heare the upside for Jaillen
Cocher is to be a weekly wide receiver three, and
I think that's possible. So looking at where the bucket
of players that I moved him into, it's all these
guys that are borderline wide receiver three slash fours. Now
I know I have him at wide receiver fifty two
and is a long tier of guys that all depending

(15:24):
on how many passes they catch or touchdown luck and
things like that, they could all be separated by a
grand total of like three points per game in fantasy
on a weekly basis, and Cocher is the guy. Again,
we go back to this. We we bank on talented rookies,
and we bank on those guys in the second year
for sophomore breakouts. Jalen Cocher is the one where you're

(15:47):
making that bet for basically free. And if Bryce Young
can be the guy we saw in weeks twelve through
eighteen last year, and you truly believe in Dave Canelis
and Ted Roe McMillen can open up other parts of
this offense. It's both downfield and otherwise that we haven't
seen yet. Jalen Cocher can easily be a wide receiver
three in your lineup on a weekly basis.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
When we're talking about guys VISTIQ, it's not going to
apply to every league from the get go. You are
going to wait for the bye weeks, But it's the
kind of the performance where what we're projecting is probably
similar to guys like Quentin Johnson Rashelle Bateman last year,
that kind of those guys who were around about wide
receiver forty who might not sound attractive now, but by
the time you get to bye weeks, by the time

(16:28):
you get to injuries and you need somebody reliable, I'd
rather bet on jal and Coke of in a whole
host names down there.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
I got a perfect comparison. Tell me, what's the difference
in the setup between him and him and Darnell Mooney.
What's the difference? Come on, he's the clear number two
in the offense. Yeah, yeah, it's It's exactly like the
Spider Man gift. It's except one of them is healthy
and one of them is not right.

Speaker 1 (16:53):
Now, let's go to the breakout guys who are maybe
like behind an alpha or you know, need some sort
of situationational change or a difference in circumstance to maybe
take that full step forward. But we think that is
on the table. And Dee Bro, your first guy here
is in mechag Buka. And I mentioned him for you
because he is the one that I think him versus
Ricky knew this three You're gonna get interesting. I mean

(17:14):
they're basically back to back in real time ADP right now.
They are two of you know, most of the fantasy
community's favorite you know, potential breakouts here in that range,
that back end wide receiver three range. So I want
to hear your general thoughts on Abuka, of course, but
I am also curious who would you prefer Peersaal or
a Buka.

Speaker 3 (17:32):
I mean, so for me, it's Pearsol, And I understand
if people want to go, I mean we are we
are splitting razor thin heres here and like right now
our rankings, I've got Pearsol or wide receiver twenty six.
I got a Buka. Just moved them up a gigain
today because real time ADP he's wide receiver thirty three,
and he is I want to say, if not, I'm
updating this live. He is the second highest gaining wide

(17:54):
receiver in ADP seven point five spots over the last
week in real time ADP. So it's like I'm trying
to stay above consensus. So people are still getting access
to him or they're still getting him in a ton
of drafts, and the fantasy community is like, all right,
bet Bett, hold my beer, I got this, and I'm like, okay,
I'm just gonna keep moving him up. But everything has

(18:15):
been like we're talking about these breakout second wide receivers
in these offenses. I mean, dude, he is the guy
that where he is the poster child for this. Like
everything has come up as aces freg buka. It's like
Chris god when we got like, okay, health reports aren't great.
The more we've gone through the off season, health reports
are pretty damning. They're horrible. I don't know when we

(18:36):
see a healthy version of Chris Godwin this year if
we do, and so it's like, okay, check Jalen mc
millan goes out in the preseason and he gets hurt,
and I don't want to see a player get hurt.
But now it's like when do we see him? I
mean there's talk about the bye week or even further.
Like you know, it's hard to gauge. And I mean,
like I'm sorry, like when I hear neck injuries and
neck injuries that could sideline you until maybe week nine

(18:57):
or further, we have no clue, man, Like, we have
no clue that could be even career threatening. Right now,
all we're going off is the reports that we have,
which I mean, come on, how much we got to
take all this injury stuff with a grain of salt
from teams just in general too, So Buka, like the
runway has been cleared. Man, it's no godwin from maybe

(19:18):
most of the season, no jailing the Nyland for most
of the season, maybe all of it. And then we're
talking about a guy with first round pedigree as well
as the prospect profile to back it up. Like two
of the last final three seasons in college he was
top forty yards per route run, top twenty and receiving
grade and yards out of the catch. And we know
the role that he's gonna play in this offense. Yeah,
Like I just keep moving him up, Just keep moving

(19:41):
them up. Worm.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
I actually think I would prefer Buka to pure slic
if I could only have a little bit team. But
it's like ridiculously close.

Speaker 3 (19:49):
It's close. The real answer here is just draft both.

Speaker 1 (19:53):
Yes, there's no reason not. You know, Tom, I'm still
waiting to hear a good case against Aguko, Like I
just like there's that well.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
I mean, I think if you wanted to play that case,
you could say, Okay, well, this team loves Chris Godwin.
They knew this verity of the injury, that he had
the fractured fibula as well as the fractured ankle or whatever,
but they still chose to pay him. I mean, you
could say they are absolutely going to give him his
job back when he comes back, but I don't believe
that's going to happen for all the reasons for Debro's

(20:23):
saying like that, injury to Godwin is severe and you
could have all kinds of complications around cartilage and stuff
like that. Like I've been on the wrong side of
injuries too many times and been too optimistic. I think
that egg Booker can play inside, outside, but his strongest
role is going to be in the slot. We know
Godwin can also play outside, So maybe there's some kind
of rotational element there. But I just look at egg

(20:44):
Booker and I wouldn't be surprised if he leads the
Books in catches this year, and I wouldn't be surprised
if he leads them in yards as well, because look,
Mike Evans, people don't want to talk about it, but
at the end of last season, frankly, it was quite
embarrassing the way that the Books went out of the
way to get him too one thousand yards. He feels
like he's standing use a step, And some of the
reports around the Books this offseason had been that Mike
Evans is treating things this year to year. Now, I

(21:06):
just I'm not saying Mike Evans is going to bust,
but if I'm putting any faith in anyone in this offense,
it's like Buka, and I'm just surprised that we're not
paying higher prices for him already.

Speaker 3 (21:15):
I won't push back on anybody that's ranking him as
a top twenty four wide receiver. I really won't.

Speaker 1 (21:21):
We talked, I think it was last week, Tom maybe
it was on a recent episode about how this is
just a really good example of like, don't overreact to
landing spots, like, yeah, on draft day, it's like, well,
oh we hate Edgruker now because the Bucks have all
It's like, opportunity will open up if you're good enough,
and we all believe that Booka was good enough.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
Yeah, it's just a classic thing. And I think it's
you know, probably more prevalent in dynasty communities than it
is by the time that we get to redraft, because
look at this, the situation has changed dramatically in the
last three months, but ultimately talent tends to win out
more often than not. And yeah, eg Booka a couple
of months back, you're getting discounting on him in dynasty circles.
And if you traded for him cheaply because you thought

(22:02):
you were you know, you traded him away cheaply because
you thought you were a contender, and just what it's
in production right now, then you might be kicking yourself.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
Yeah, And I'll say the other side of the coin
is we have also lived in a world where we
saw rookie seasons from romadons A and JSN fall flat
because of the competition, so like it has been an
absolutely pure run out for egg buch as well.

Speaker 1 (22:25):
Yeah, Tom, who is your first guy in this category?

Speaker 2 (22:29):
Yeah, well, obviously most shows I do with Andrew when
we're talking best Ball, and it's hard for me to
get a word in edgeways about Jalen Waddle. But I
would say I'm just as high on Jalen Waddle as
Andrew like. And it's so easy for me to make
this argument, like, look, Miami Dolphins were bad last year
and they're likely going to be bad, and at the
heart of it is how bad their defense could be.

(22:49):
The secondary looks like it's going to be one of
the worst in the league. They traded away Jayleen Ramsey
for anybody just tuning in at this point of the
offseason wondering why he's not involved in that conversation, and
this can lead to Dolphins haven't a pass more, which
leads to them putting up more points. More pass attempts
is good last year to have ranked third in pass
attempts per game at thirty six point three. He led
the league with twenty six completions per game. Now, some

(23:11):
of this is obviously checkdowns. It as two of it
were talking about, and John Y Smith and Devon A.
Chan were huge like volume hogs because of that, but
when Jalen Waddle wasn't playing with Tour, the difference was
so stark. Like in Week three, Tim Boyle and Skylet
Thompson combined for twenty completions, Week five, Tyler Huntley eighteen completions.
Week seven, Huntley and Boyle combining for fifteen completions. So

(23:35):
it's like the drop off in completed passes per game
was massive. Wadolov ridged four point seventy nine more PPR
points per game with Tour than without, and Waddle led
the team in yards per target, yards per reception. He
just needed a ball more often. He needed Tour out there.
And lastly, the vibes around Tyreek Hill they just not good.

(23:55):
Whereas it sounds like Waddle and Tour have spent a
lot of time together this offseason.

Speaker 1 (24:00):
Debra, where you at in a waddle.

Speaker 3 (24:01):
I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I have
Wattle at wide receiver twenty months. I am out on
Tyreek Hill. You cannot force me to draft him. I'm
not doing it. I think there is a non zero
chance Tyreek Hill goes full ab and by week seven
when they're one and six or two and four, something
like that, he's ripping off the jersey and saying, forget
you guys, I'm out of here. So Jayalen Waddle like,

(24:24):
I'm totally in on him. The other part about this
is the way that I looked at this offense and
as soon as Johnny was gone, I feel like everybody
went to Devon a Chan and they said, Oh, he's
gonna catch more passes. Alway's gonna catch more passes. It's like,
did he almost catch the ninety He almost caught ninety
passes last year? What do you think he's gonna catch
one hundred and fifteen? Like come on? So Like for me,

(24:45):
I think Devan a Chan's gonna catch a ton of passes.
That's not crazy to say. But in the John Newsmith role,
in the underneath low a dot role, I think that
could go to a Jalen Waddle. I think we could
see him revisit the role that he had in his
rookie season and he catches a hundred passes and passes
this year and he is the low a dot guy
that's running more out of the slot where it's like

(25:06):
everybody's like, oh, well, is it Tyreek, is it Waddle?
Is it a you know? Darren Waller, like, I think
the answer in all aspects is Jaylen Wattle.

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Let's go to another breakout guy here, Debro who you got.

Speaker 3 (25:20):
And to go further down the list here. And I
know that people are gonna say they do some squinting
with this, but in a wide open passing attack that
where you don't have this uber alpha that's commanding a
twenty eight percent target share, it's more of a committee.
I think there's a really big lane an opportunity for
Joshua Palmer this year for all of the parts of

(25:42):
pieces that the Buffalo Bill's already had in this room,
and they go out and they add quickly in the
offseason somebody like Joshua Palmer. His role in this offense
is so easy to see for a guy that's honestly,
really really underrated as a route runner and a separator
last year amongst one hundred and twelve qualifying wide receivers
sixteenth in separation twelfth and route win rate. And I

(26:05):
really believe in this type of data that we get
from Fantasy Points data, like looking at those numbers, this
would have put you on somebody like a Rashad Bateman
last year and other players in that ilk where they
were breakout players that we hadn't seen a lot of
these things before. And we've seen flashes from Joshua Palmer
when Keenan Allen was out of the lineup, Mike at
Williams was out of the lineup for the Chargers. Now,
did it come to fruition last year. No, doesn't mean

(26:26):
that it can't this year and a new opportunity. Absolutely,
like I think that it can happen because if you
look at the role that they drafted Keon Coleman to
play last year, it was against man coverage. He was
supposed to be the man coverage beater guy. He had
a twenty seven percent target per rout run rate versus man,
fourteen percent versus his own. He could not separate versus
his own. He was middle of the road versus man.

(26:47):
Whereas Joshua Palmer against man coverage last year was fifth
in separation and route win rate against man coverage. And
this all goes back to this. I know I'm getting
deep in the weeds people, but the Buffalo Bills know
that they have to solve this problem. Over the last
three seasons, they have faced top four man coverage rates

(27:08):
every single year fourth most, third most, and last year
the most man coverage in the NFL. So he's talking
about trust, rapport, a guy that could separate, and a
passing attack wer. Who is the alpha? Who is the
guy you worried about Isa Khalil Shakir. Dude, he wasn't
even commanding like a twenty five percent target sharer even
after his role grew in the second half of last season.

(27:29):
So you're gonna give me a perimeter guy that can
separate with tied the freaking Josh Allen all Day, let's go.

Speaker 1 (27:36):
This is, you know, speaking of Andrew Erickson, one of
his favorites, Like just talking about you know, these fifty
year breakout guys. He's been all over.

Speaker 3 (27:43):
I'm just Ericson's burner by the way.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, you know, Palmer's such an interesting one, Tom,
What do you think about him?

Speaker 3 (27:51):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (27:51):
I really like the stats for debros quoted. I must
have referenced them that Debros quoted them and his tweets
with them in in a whole bunch of articles this
offseason talking about late round wide receivers who could be
worth it. Because with Josh Palmer, it's always like we've
had little glimpses, but yes, he's played behind guys like
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. There isn't anyone in Buffalo

(28:13):
who I think are as good as those guys when
they were good at least, and when they were healthy
and when they were on the field. The way the
Bills play, it's really unpredictable and really difficult, and quite honestly,
it's not something I've been zeroing in a lot. I
don't mind Josh Palmer in best Ball. I haven't really
taken him in red drafts so far, but it's not
hard for me to imagine that when all is said

(28:34):
and done, he is the most valuable part of this
passing attack, and particularly at the cost you're get in
like he's earned solid red zone targets across his career,
Like he was obviously playing behind Keenan Allen, who was
very good in the red zone, but he always did
fine in those numbers. And then when you look at
the Bills, I don't think there's anybody in particular who's
particularly good in the red zone. Khalil Shaki definitely not

(28:56):
necessarily got the build for it. Dalal Kinkaid has been
taking off the field frequently in the red zone. So
if Josh Palmer can become the red zone weapon for
Josh Allen, then I think that would be huge for
his fantasy value.

Speaker 1 (29:08):
Let's go to your next breakout guy, Tom, and this
is somebody that Debro alluded to earlier when talking about
Jalen Coger.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
Yeah, it start Al Mooney, last year's wide receiver twenty seven,
and I think the prolonged injury this summer has obviously
given us a bit of a dip. And generally I
don't like to beat on those kind of guys, but
now it's took a point where you're getting him at
such a discount. But I'm okay saying I can wait
a while. I can wait. He can be my wide receiver, form,
my wide receiver five, depending on how I'm building my team.

(29:34):
And last year he averaged twelve point one PPR points
per game, had five games where he scored seventeen or
more PPR points, as well as that massive thirty point
game in week five. Wide receiver three finished that week. Now,
some people, when you talk about Donald Mooney, they go, Okay,
well did he really do anything with Michael Pennix, Because
everybody just remembers Drake London getting absolutely peppered with targets, which,

(29:55):
by the way, is something we love to see. But
when they played together in week sixteen and seventeen, combined
for seven of his eleven targets for one hundred and
nineteen yards, which is completely fine. There was no reason
to worry about that production. We know the Falcons are
going to play free wide receiver sets at one of
the highest rates across the league, and last year the
only wide receiver with highest snap shares than Donal Mooney

(30:17):
was Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson. He's going
to be out there, He's going to get lots of targets,
and I think the Falcons are going to pass plenty,
and I'm more than happy to accept that it might
be a slow start for him.

Speaker 1 (30:28):
Debro You obviously like kind of touched on Mooney a
little when talking about Coker, But are you interested in
Mooney at cost?

Speaker 3 (30:35):
Yeah, I'm interested in Mooney at cost. I mean, my
biggest thing about him right now is just the health.
I mean, so I'll take shots on him depending on
the composition of my rosters and stuff like that, because
everything that Tom laid out is perfectly right, man Like,
it's a consolidated passing attack. It's Drake Lennon and Darnel
Mooney at the top. No, there's done any Kyle Pitts.
I don't even know if he's gonna be a full
time player in that offense. So are you really worried

(30:56):
about Rey Ray McCloud stealing targets away? No? So the
other thing about it with Darnah Mooney is we did
see the field stretching aspect with Kirk Cousins, but do
it at a wet noodle for an arm like with
Michael Panix. We're gonna see that even more this year
because he could chuck it down the freakin' field. And
if Darnah Mooney could separate down the field, injury or not,

(31:18):
he's gonna have big spike weeks. Man.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
Remember, winning your fantasy league starts before draft day, and
the Fantasy Pros Draft Kit gives you the knowledge to
do it right. There are wide receiver gems to be
found all throughout the middle and late rounds. Our Draftkit
is your one stop shop for expert rankings, sleepers, breakouts,
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(31:40):
to fantasypros dot com Slash Kit. Get access to all
the premium content in our kit by claiming your three
day free trial of Fantasy Pros Premium at fantasypros dot
Com slash Premium. All right, guys, we've got some league
winners hiding in plane site. Dro who is your first
name in our final category?

Speaker 3 (31:59):
I know you're gonna beary, and I know all the
smoke you got coming from me because I'm bringing.

Speaker 1 (32:02):
Up Oh Tom and I are ready.

Speaker 3 (32:05):
I know, dude. I just want, please, please, Baltimore. All
I'm asking feature your best players. And I know Lamar
is good. I know Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews are good. Dude,
Say Flowers if he was on any other freaking team
would be ranked higher, have a better role than he

(32:28):
has in this offense. Just feature the man. That's all
I'm asking because on a per route basis, he is amazing.
Last year's Syflowers amongst eighty five qualifying wide receivers fourteenth
and target chair seventeenth and yards per route run eighteenth.
The first read cheer twentieth and first downs per route

(32:49):
run just check check, check check, And even when you
pull open the hood, it's even better on a per
route basis. When you look at separation scores, this guy
was fifth in separation, ninth in route win rate. Overall,
you go to man coverage, and this is the secret
sauce where I like you look for the extra ceiling
guys that can win versus man coverage. They're usually the

(33:11):
top of the pile. The elite guys Zay Flowers last
year versus man coverage first in separation, fourth and route
win rate. Give him freaking red zone targets, Baltimore. If
you give him to him, he's gonna convert. If you
give him volume, he's gonna make things happen. I can't
help the fact that he's had nine receiving touchdowns over

(33:33):
the last two years. He's had twenty two total red
zone targets of the last two years, twenty eighth and
fifty ninth in that category amongst wide receivers. If you
feature this guy, good things will happen. I just don't
know if Baltimore will do it, but I'm asking, I'm pleading,
please do it.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
Tom, Do you want to take this or do you
want me too?

Speaker 2 (33:53):
Yeah, I'm happy to say this because I don't think
I'm as low on zaiy as you are. When I'm
still expecting that there is another level, and it's to
do with the stuff for Debro mentioned because like last
year alone, seven end zone targets but only two touchdowns
from those targets, now only four touchdowns in total, that
just like I can't believe isn't a case for positive

(34:14):
regression there. People aren't high, and Andrews likely's injured, nobody's
talking batement up and it just all leads back to
Za Flowers. For me, I think like it's quite obvious
when you've if you've watched Lamar for a long time,
particularly in detail, when it gets to the red zone,
a lot of it comes back to trust him. For
so long, Mark Andrews has been that guy. But last
year Mark Andrews had eleven end zone touchdowns on fifteen

(34:37):
end zone targets. He ran so incredibly pure. I'm not
sure that he can run that pure again. Last year
we saw like guys like Charlie Kohler and Isaiah Likely
popping up for vs en zone touchdowns and sooner or later.
I think that it's very hard for a guy like
Za Flowers to not experience some positive touchdown regression because
of all the great starts that Debro mentioned about separation.
The hardest part for me about draftings a fl Flowers.

(35:01):
But he comes in that range with Jayleen Woddel, Calvin Ridley,
Jameson Williams, Teta Rowa. But that's why I want to
double dip in this range. I want to pull one
of those guys up around ahead of ADP so I
can come back and get another guy. Because while Zay
Flowers will be a little boom or bust sometimes because
there will be those weeks where the Ravens spread it
around are incredibly efficient, or they'll be those weeks where

(35:22):
Derrick Henry gets two Russian touchdowns just as Hill gets one.
I'm still willing to take the upside of.

Speaker 1 (35:28):
Him Jay Flowers. Okay, So I am out on Zay
Flowers this year. Part of it is the cost. First
of all, he's a good player in real life, like
love having him on the Ravens. I've said this a bunch,
like very good player. I'm not at all pushing back
on anything deeper said about Jay Flowers the player, I
do not see a path to him ever getting significant
red zone usage. As the offense is currently constructed, the

(35:51):
priorities for the Ravens when they are close to scoring
are run the ball with Derrick Henry, throw to Mark Andrews,
throw Isaiah likely. I think this year it might be
thrown at DeAndre Hopkins. It's gonna be run with Lamar
like further down that list, but like they just don't say, hey,
say you're a guy that we're gonna design plays for

(36:12):
in the red zone. I do not expect that to change.
And I think the fact that the offense is as
run heavy as it is is going to limit his
targets enough that it won't make up for the difference
in what I expect to be a lack of red
zone you know usage. And I don't understand just because
we want that to change, I don't understand how it
actually is going to so to me that significantly caps

(36:35):
the ceiling. I do think Day's a pretty good floor
because I think he's a really good player, But I
don't think there's real like ceiling breakout, like gonna be
a guy that really makes a difference for you in
your league type of a player here, and it's you know,
I look at like again, like he had he had
one top ten finish in half PPR scoring in any
week all of last season. Like, it's not even like

(36:55):
you're getting like, well, so the boom weeks are at
least gonna win you. The week he had that one
week a gain Denver where he had two long touchdowns,
he was the number two wide receiver that year. His
next best finished last season and year two was wide
receiver eleven. That's not a league winning week. So I like,
and to cap my point here, like what you said,
Tom about where he is going, the real time ADP

(37:16):
is inside the top sixty five picks. I just like
a lot of other names there instead. And I'm going
to have very little and maybe even zero Jay Flowers
this year because I don't think the cost aligns with
the ceiling.

Speaker 3 (37:30):
To your point, where go ahead, Tom, go ahead.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
I'm just gonna say I think that this has been
one of the most interesting debates for me this offseason
because there's so many really smart people on both sides
of it, and I think that it's I've gone back
and forth because you can build a case for it
and both of you guys have built really good cases.
And that's what kind of leads me back to taking
him a little bit more that it just feels like
you know of his opportunity in ambiguity. If we can

(37:54):
build a downside case for him, but we can also
build this massive upside case for him, then does he
have po cential vide ends up turning into an undervalued
kind of league winner. And that's why I'll still draft
him and I won't go crazy. I won't have him
in every league, but this definitely leaks where I will
want him.

Speaker 3 (38:09):
Yeah, And I want to be very clear, if people
have been consuming my content and Fantasy pros, will you
find say Flowers and my players to avoid article Yes,
because he was priced as a wide receiver two. I
don't want to pray a wide receiver two price tag
for him if I get him as a wide receiver three.
And really this all comes down to, like we're talking
about wide receivers that have a path, or at least

(38:31):
a conceivable path. And when I go down with Flowers
is dude, sometimes we got to bet on the talent
of these guys, and the talent can dictate a lot
of different things. Because as the season goes along, injuries
do happen. DeAndre Hopkins being another year older, what does
he have left in the tank. Also, it's not like
he's been a picture of health. Mark Andrews over the

(38:52):
last two years has not been a picture of health.
If one of those like if one of those obstacles
gets cleared, or heck, both of them get wiped out
the board, Isaiah likely is not fully healthy. I don't
even know. If we see a version of that end
this season, then it's like, well, it's wheels up, it's
Zay and it's Bateman, and he's gonna get fed. And
I'm not forecasting injuries and saying I want those things

(39:13):
to happen. But this all comes back to is there
a guy in that range where I could say the
talent is if the stars aligned and things happen in
that offense, does he have the talent to do it?
He absolutely has the talent to do it.

Speaker 1 (39:32):
He's got talent. Love the player. Now you want to
hear me say a bad word about Zay Flowers a player,
just Zay Flowers the fantasy investment?

Speaker 3 (39:39):
No, I get it. And that's why I would be
crystal clear about this take where I'm at on him,
the fact that where he's at in my other content,
I'm going to be very clear about how I'm framing
this and the bet that if people are drafting him,
and the path it would take to do this.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
Tom, let's go to your league winner hiding him play
in sight.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
This is beautiful. I'm just gonna sit back and listen.

Speaker 2 (39:59):
Go ahead, No, no, it's George Pickens. And like, look,
I haven't been in on George Pickens over the last
couple of years. Like look, disclaim it. Obviously, I'm a
Ravens fan, so there was plenty of reasons to want
George Pickens to fail. But Pickens has had nine games
over sixteen PPR points the last two years, which has
been great. He's also sixteen as wide receiver forty three

(40:20):
or worse. And now the reason why I'm so high
on him is because now he's gone to Dallas, which
isn't going to be this miserable passing offense which he's
been in. Dallas were top three and passes per game
last year, Pittsburgh were fourth bottom twenty twenty three. When
Dak was healthy, Dallas led the league. Pittsburgh ranked twenty seventh.
Last time that Dak was fully healthy, in twenty twenty three,

(40:42):
he played a full season there, they led the league
in points per game. Pittsburgh were twenty eighth. And that's
the Steelers' way isn't about scoring lots of points. They
don't want that. But the Cowboys it's more ingrained in
their bones. They want to entertained. They want it even
when they're bad. There's something entertaining about the way that
they can play. Among thirty one wide receivers were one
hundred plus targets last year. He ranked sixth in yards

(41:05):
after contact per reception. We know he is a dog.
We know that, like when he's got the ball in
his hands, he's going to fight for every single yard.
He was third in yards per reception, which is impressive.
We know that he's going to be used downfield. We
know how valuable those touches can be. But I also
think that Dallas are going to use him more creatively,
because I don't think that's something which Arthur Smith designs

(41:27):
a good running game, and he designs some interesting stuff,
but I don't think he designs a good passing game.
I don't think that Russell Wilson or just In Fields.
We're getting the best out of him. And people have
spent a lot of time talking about the benefit to
CED Lamb that George Pickens is going to bring. He's
going to clear things out across the close of a
line of scrimmage to make it easier on him. But
the benefit of CD Lamb to George Pickens is massive

(41:50):
as well. And I think it's just going to be
a very very entertaining season for George Pickens. And I
think we'll be sitting back in a few months time
wondering why George Pickens wasn't going.

Speaker 1 (42:00):
Yeah, de Bro, you obviously agree with this one.

Speaker 3 (42:03):
I have George Pickens ranked as a top fifteen wide receiver.
I think that he's I think he is the NFC
version of T Higgins. I think that you look at
this offense, Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and George Pickens are
going to be the Cincinnati Bengals of the NFC. I
think Pickens is going to be awesome this year. And
for all the other parts and pieces that Tom laid out,

(42:24):
which was a wonderful argument for Pickens before the hamstring
injury last year, he was top twenty and almost every
metric that you could pull up. You want to talk
about volume, He's gonna get it. You want to talk
about talent, He's got it. You want to talk about Also,
he's playing in a contract here, baby, so if nothing else,
money talks.

Speaker 1 (42:44):
I yeah, I mean this is like I'm not quite
Arran terms like talking about like a top fifteen receiver
the way I'm gonna rank him. But yes, like the
case for me, Like the interesting with the Pickens is that,
like you know, the reputation I think is as a
boombust receiver similar to day Flowers, he doesn't actually have
that many boom weeks really on his resume. I think
in his entire career he's had like three games with

(43:04):
over twenty Fantasy points and half PPR scoring in the
game or something like that. I forget the exact stas
something along those lines, but it feels like with the
situation change and everything, Like, yeah, I'm very in on
the Cowboys offense in general this year in terms of
fantasy production. We were talking on an earlier show debro
that I think will actually come out later than this one.
But how like the way I put it is, I

(43:25):
think the Cowboys are the poor man's Bengals, and the
Panthers are the poor man's Cowboys. But they all kind
of fit that same arch type right of these like
fantasy circus teams we're looking at, and I think that
the Cowboys are just a great investment really all over
the place for that reason. So we can go on
to the next one. Oh, go ahead.

Speaker 3 (43:41):
Well, I wanted to do this really fast because there's
three wide receivers that I am adamantly opposed to that
are right above George Pickens. But I want to get
y'all's thoughts on this we're going to do. Would you
rather really really quickly Marvin Rrison Junior or George Pickens?

Speaker 2 (43:54):
It's Joge Pickens?

Speaker 3 (43:56):
Okay, Tyreek Hill or George Pickens.

Speaker 2 (43:58):
Oh it's Jeorge Pickens.

Speaker 3 (44:00):
All right? How about Garrett Wilson or George Pickens.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
I think I'll probably still take Garret Wilson, but I wouldn't.

Speaker 3 (44:07):
Like it DK Metcalf for George Pickens, the man that
got out of an Orthur Smiths the man. Those are
three wide receivers that are all ranked in that bucket
of fifteen through twenty, above George Pickens and It's like what.

Speaker 1 (44:22):
Mar Marvin Harrison Junior. I'm just kind of like, personally,
I'm opting out of the Marvin Harrison j Let's just say,
let's see what it looks like.

Speaker 3 (44:29):
I can't saying Kyler problem.

Speaker 1 (44:30):
I can't weigh in on this anymore. Yeah, Garrett Wilson,
I do still like but yeah, Tyreek and DK Metcalf easily.
I would take Pickens there, I will. I'm with you
on that, all right, you give me your next league winner.

Speaker 3 (44:41):
Dude. This comes down to just again, talent, opportunity and
canned the can the the the realistic realm of like
appear if anything were to happen to AJ Brown. And
that leads me to the Vonta Smith, a guy that
has been disrespected because he's been so good he has
lulled people to sleep. He has been dropping as a

(45:03):
wide receiver three in some drafts and rankings. Yes, I
see you all in ECR ranking him as a wide
receiver three. It's blasphemous. Davonta Smith has been a wide
receiver two over each of the last three seasons, wide
receiver fifteen, twenty and fourteen and Fantasy points per game.
And again the way where he is a league winner
and playing sight well, you want to play the card

(45:24):
of he in some spots, you're drafting him. In some
places his ADP is a wide receiver three. Okay, that's ridiculous.
So he's gonna pay off even if AJ Brown stays healthy,
because that's what he's done. The Philadelphia Eagles are gonna
throw more than they did last year. That is just
simple regression. I'm not telling you how much they're gonna
throw him. It's gonna be more because it was so

(45:46):
legendarily low last year. That is going to change. And
then we want to talk about AJ Brown. I love
AJ Brown, but AJ Brown there are risks when we
hear reports of last year too. They were draining his
knee a multiple times, multiple occasions during the week, and
where he's another year older and more hits absorbed. I'm

(46:06):
not forecasting. I do not want to see AJ Brown
hurt or missing time, But if it happens, we've already
seen what that looks like. People DeVonta Smith last year,
and in one of these two games, and I know
we're dealing with the small sample size. One of these
two games, DeVonta Smith didn't even play the entirety of
the game. But in the two games he was on
the field without AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith had a twenty

(46:28):
nine point four percent target share, he had fifty eight
percent of the air yards, he had a thirty nine
percent first read share, and he scored seventeen point eight
PPR points per game, which if he would have done
that for the entirety of the season. And I get
it's a two game sample. Sorry, I can't manufacture other
games that AJ Brown didn't miss because he didn't miss

(46:48):
any other games. So with this sample, seventeen point eight
PPR points per game, people, that would have qualified an
equal as the wide receiver eight last year. So I
don't know how much more league winner we got to
talk about, but that's it.

Speaker 1 (47:01):
Bit of a forgotten man. Like we talked earlier Debra
about how Courtland Sutton is somebody that hasn't really come
up on shows that much this year, I feel like
Smith is also in that bucket where he's just like, yeah,
he's ranked in the early twenties IT receiver and everybody
kind of knows he's number two in the offense and
he's a good player in the offense. And YadA YadA YadA,
and it's like, I just feel like there hasn't really
been much conversation about him, so I'm happy to hear

(47:23):
you kind of highlighting that. Like, no, he's not just
like a known commodity. He is a real upside swing too,
if the circumstances, you know, really present himself that way.

Speaker 2 (47:32):
Tom, Yeah, absolutely. I mean I didn't write too much
down for DeVonta Smith because I just feel like it's
always a very easy argument to write. It's look, Debo
said it, people don't appreciate how good he is, huge
contingent value of aj Brown missus time. But it's also
Dallas Scudda, who has played twelve games, four long games
and ten games over the last three seasons. So it

(47:53):
feels like you get a spike out of whichever of
the top three in this passing. For Alume, it is
because it is very concentrated in Philadelphia, like wide receiver three.
It just doesn't matter. You don't need to worry yourself
about Johanne Dotten or whoever it is. Of a minute,
and then in each of the last two seasons he
said seven games over fifteen PPR points in both of them.
To put that in a further context, last year you

(48:16):
look at like the top twenty six qbs were all
scoring over fifteen points on average. Like, that's like basement
replacement level for your QB two in Superflex a lot
of the time QB three on a bad week. That's
what DeVonta Smith gives you. It's just a really high ceiling,
really good flow. And I don't care about the arguments
about the Eagles won't pass that much. Like, I just

(48:37):
like having good players on my team.

Speaker 1 (48:39):
Sometimes to give me yeah to, I'll give you your
last league when are hiding in plain sight.

Speaker 2 (48:45):
So it's the one which a lot of people will
find a difficult one because some people, some people are
afraid to take risks and some people are afraid to
have fun. And it's Travis Hunter like, look, there's there's
no denying that this is an upside swing. And I
get that it's not going to be for everybody, but
like particularly in home leagues, Like, look, I've played a

(49:06):
lot of fantasy contests. I've won some good money playing
fantasy contests in big competitions. I've not won my home
league in the last six seven years. I want to
take swings. I need to shoot for upside, and Travis
Hunter represents exactly the kind of guy who can do this.
Everyone wants to get worried about. Okay, well he's going
to play on defense, blah blah blah. Right, Trevor Lawrence's

(49:28):
touchdown line is set at twenty two point five this year. Now,
if Trevor Lawrence is out there struggling to score touchdowns,
do we think that they're gonna put the second best
wide receiver on this team out there. I don't think
that's why they brought Tim Patrick to the Jags. I
think that Liam Cohen is absolutely going to maximize what
you get from Travis Hunter.

Speaker 3 (49:47):
Why.

Speaker 2 (49:47):
Because Liam Cohen is an offensive minded coach. He came there,
he drafted Travis Hunter, he gave up draft capital, knowing
that it's gonna make his job harder in future years
to do so. And I think he's going to put
an emphasis on the screen game, which was so huge
for books last year. It was second with ninety one screens.
That's an easy way to top fantasy value. And when
I watched Travis Fonner, it's very similar to DeVonta Smith.

(50:08):
People start going, oh okay, well least quite slim as
he can hold up. Maybe he will struggle attle bit
on defense, but this guy one with Blintakough Award for
best receiver in college. I've got every faith in him
being fun for fantasy and a good fantasy football pick
in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (50:23):
I am one of those people who have been playing
scared for most of the summer. When it's official, people,
well here's.

Speaker 3 (50:30):
The other thing.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
And we didn't name this player, and I think we
could have. But a guy who could have been on
this list as a league winner hiding a plain sight
is his fellow top ten rookie pick in Teoa McMillan.
We've talked about him a lot, so I'm okay with
us not including him. I have put a lot of
my high end rookie receiver investment, you know, hope and
optimism and enthusiasm into McMillan instead of Hunter. There's room

(50:54):
to do both, of course, but that is one reason
why I've like not shied away, but like I've just
been less you know, Hunter. But I think Hunter is
actually like maybe the perfect answer for this question in
terms of literally how we're defining it, Like could be
a league winner, like a number two overall pick uber talented,
like opportunity to all that stuff hiding in plain in sight.
You were given cover by the fact that there is

(51:16):
this uncertainty with the defensive usage and just like what
he is going to look like in the NFL, that
is keeping the ADP obviously lower than it would be
if he was strictly an offensive player. Like then there
was never even any hint of any of the defensive stuff.
And that is an opportunity to take a swing like
you laid out Tom and really like like again, you're

(51:37):
not trying to finish fourth in your league, right, You're
trying to finish first. Travis Hunter is a guy who,
if it works, can do that.

Speaker 2 (51:43):
Yeah, and just also to just go further with it.
It's like you can make an argument that Okay, like
I love brand Thomas Afoyt. It was phenomenal last year,
but his best play came with Mac Jones. Trevor Lawrence
like he has been a bit conservative as a quarterback
and maybe Liam Cohen unlocks him. But what Liam Cohen
also was really good at. Sorry, what Trevor Lawrence has
been reliable with was like Pepper and Christiane Kirk over

(52:05):
the last few years. If we see him latch onto
Travis Hunter in that kind of role, then that could
be massive for him. Maybe it doesn't happen quite like that,
but I'm absolutely willing to lose my league taking a
swing on Travis.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
Hunner, Deebra, Where do you actually have Hunter ranked?

Speaker 3 (52:20):
I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him
at fifty second overall. Right now in real time ADP,
he is wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall.
I am aggressively ahead because I am with everything that
Tom laid out here and the thing that goes down. Man,
the Jacksonville Jaguars make this trade. You think they make
that aggressive trade up for a freaking cornerback. No, that

(52:42):
move is for a wide receiver and for everybody that
says Travis Hunt is gonna play so much corner this year.
All right, let's walk to schedule. People, tell me what
helps this team more? A full time wide receiver adding
to an offense. Where outside of Brian Thomas Junior, are
you worried about Tim Pak, Diami Brown, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange.

(53:03):
None of these guys are gonna command over a fifteen
to eighteen percent target chair even in the best of circumstances.
But you walk this schedule, what's helping them the most
a part time wide receiver, part time cornerback or adding
one cornerback to this defense. When you play the Cincinnati Bengals,
you play Houston, you play the forty nine Ers, the Chiefs,

(53:26):
the Rams, Houston again, the Chargers, the Cardinals, Denver, you
play all of those different teams. Is a part time
cornerback gonna help them stop teams from scoring enough? Or
do you think they need a full time wide receiver
to the offense to outscore teams? They need a wide receiver,

(53:48):
they need firepower. You make them move up the board
aggressively because you believe he's a wide receiver. You believe
he's a difference maker, and you need that for your offense.
So I'm with Tom on all the parts and pieces here.

Speaker 1 (54:02):
Travis Hunter is a Flowers.

Speaker 3 (54:04):
I mean, I have Travis Hunter ranked ahead as a Flowers.
So Travis Hunter, I'm.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
Just say Flowers. But it's very close. It's like literally
back to back.

Speaker 1 (54:14):
We're gonna do a little bit of a mail bag here,
just a quick, short one, and I solicited some questions
from folks on Twitter of their own wide receiver breakouts,
so we'll see what they say and what we think
about those answers. These questions came from Twitter, but if
you want faster replies for your questions, you can head
to our discord to chat with other fans and get
access to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed.
Our current schedule looks like this, myself in fits at

(54:36):
five eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, Bogman
and Fits at five eastern on the third Tuesday of
every month, and Welsh and ericson Thursdays at two eastern.
Come get your questions answered and be on the show
at fantasypros dot com slash chat. Hey guys, I know
what I just read about, Like, oh, we're going to
see what these people say. Every single submission. We didn't
get that many this time. You're you know, people are busy.

(54:57):
Every single submission was a name we talked about on
the show. It was George Wickens, it was a Mecca Vuka,
it was Ricky Pearsall, it was Travis Hutter. So the
folks are agreeing with us. We don't need to weigh
necessarily on those sub issues because obviously we already did.
I did get a mailback question DM to me that
I want to bring up here, as comes from Jack.

(55:18):
He's wondering what we're doing with players like Cedric Tillman, who,
as he defines it, pure hype players, but who have
had limited results so far. So those guys like Cedric Tillman, debro,
what are you doing with him in drafts?

Speaker 3 (55:32):
I'm out on Cedric Tillman. I am so far out
on Cedric Tillman. The counting stats and the raw box
score filling was all because Cleveland ran so many freaking plays,
like in that stint where he was awesome. They ranked
third in passing attempts and second in passing rate. So
all of that wonderful volume perfume is covering up for

(55:56):
a guy that in that stretch had one point seven
one yards per route run, zero point zero seven eight
first downs per route run. He was eighty second in
separation ninetieth and route win rate. It was just a
perfect storm for Cedric Tillman. So I am out, And
the what I do with a lot of those guys
it comes down to, like this goes back to process

(56:16):
and how I break down guys, and when I'm writing
them up and looking at their analytics and stuff like that.
That's where it helps to clarify things. So when I
was writing up the top two fifty players like Kean
Coleman fully out Cedric Tillman, I am out Marque's Hollywood
Brown Again, all of these guys that are like back

(56:37):
of the you know, final round picks for people, count
me out on all of them because all of the
metrics are horrible.

Speaker 1 (56:45):
Tom So, I'm.

Speaker 2 (56:47):
Currently more interested in Tilman than I am in Judy.
And it's kind of links back to a lot of
what Deebro was saying that I think the period when
people are holding up Judy's ADP is swift perood, which
will not miss certainly going to see. I think that
people are expecting too much from Joe Flacco. Like Joe
Flacco was bad enough last year that he got benched

(57:07):
for Colts, and people seem to forget that he didn't play.
In Week seventeen, it was Anthony Richardson. He was averaging
three sacks per game, one point two interceptions per game.
That's stuff that kills drives, that's stuff that gets you benched. Now,
I think that there's enough there that Tillman. I'm okay
taking the shop because Tilman is so much cheaper than
Jerry Judy. But on the whole, yeah, I've been avoiding

(57:28):
the Cleveland wide receivers in general.

Speaker 1 (57:31):
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
Thanks everybody for checking out our wide receiver breakout candidates
for Debro and Tom, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in.
We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the
Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show,
the best free way to support us is by leaving
a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com

(57:51):
slash review, or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram
and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com com slash Fantasy Pros

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FantasyPros - High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Ep. 1678)

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