Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're balling on a budget.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's right, it's our favorite twenty twenty five Fantasy Football
value picks. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock,
and today I'm joined by both Pat Fitzmorris and Derek
Brown in this video will help you make the most
of your draft capital this season with four players who
are going way too low in drafts. And before we
jump in, just want to shout out everyone who's watching
(00:24):
on the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel or listening on the
podcast feed. Thank you so much for hanging out with us.
As always, the easiest freeway to support us. Give this
video a thumbs up if you usually type content. Also
make sure you subscribe if you're new. We got a
lot of content coming for you in season, and a
whole lot more in between now and then. And let's
pop the top off with Fitz's favorite, our second favorite
(00:46):
value pick for twenty twenty five. What do you have
for us, my friend?
Speaker 3 (00:50):
My second favorite value pick for twenty twenty five, Seth
is Tetoroa McMillan, the rookie wide receiver for the Carolina
Panthers ECRs wide receiver twenty eight fifty nine overall. I
have him at wide receiver twenty one forty six overall.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Wow. M.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
I think McMillan is being undervalued because people are always
hesitant to invest too aggressively in rookies who have blank
NFL resumes, and in this case, there's probably also some
baked in hesitation to trust Bryce Young, even he's playing
quite well by the end of the twenty twenty four season.
I just I hope our viewers and listeners will take
advantage of the malaise towards Teta Rowe McMillan like he
(01:30):
is a truly outstanding prospect. He was drafted eighth overall
and averaged one hundred and eight point eight yards per
game over his final two college seasons. He's an advanced
route runner, and oh, by the way, Teta Roe McMillan
is six foot five. There is some touchdown upside there.
The panthers other receivers are Adam Thielen, who's about to
(01:51):
turn thirty five, Xavior Lagette, who was pretty awful as
a rookie, and Jalen Coker, who, like Debro, I'm actually
pretty fond of. But let's face it, I mean, Coker
is an undrafted former free agent from Holy Cross, useful
supporting cast member, not someone who's going to siphon a
lot of targets away from soon to be leading man
Tataroa McMillan. Carolina just doesn't have much pass catching firepower
(02:15):
at tight end either. Panthers are probably gonna have one
of the worst defenses in the league this season, and
if Carolina is trying to keep up with high scoring opponents,
they're going to have to be passing the ball at
a higher than average rate. I think it's very possible
Tataroa McMillan finishes top ten in targets as a rookie,
and if that happens, we're going to look back in
(02:36):
utter astonishment at his ECR wide receiver twenty eighth man.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
I'm completely in with you, and I just got snipe
trying to pick Tataroa McMillan in scott Fishbowl here in
the past week. So still a little bit bitter and debro.
I know as a prospect, you like Tech quite a bit.
Do you still like him with the question marks that
surround this Carolina Panthers offense under Dave Canalis?
Speaker 1 (02:59):
I I can't. I'm emphatically nodding my head the entire time.
FITZI is just walking us through this because I can't
agree more with him. I've got Tedoro mcmillans Wide receiver
seventeen thirty. Wow, Like I just wow, he's a wide
receiver two man. He's it through and through and I
think for everything fits he lays out, this is a
(03:20):
case of people Tedro and McMillan getting too much shade,
people just wanting to shade that wide receiver class as
a whole, and people talking out both sides of their
mouths saying, Okay, well he's too slow to be a
top ten pick, but then he is, and then saying, well,
but we want to comp in to Drake London, but
oh he's not that good, but but he is. And
the part about the offense that I really want to
(03:41):
illuminate here that gives the upside for Teed outside of
the pathway for him to be the un like unquestioned
wide receiver one alpha in this offense is also that
Carolina last year, it's really going under the radar. Guys.
They were fourth in red zone passing rate, twelfth in
passing rate inside of the ten yard line. If this
(04:04):
offense takes another step if Bryce Shunk can be the
guy he was in weeks twelve through eighteen. Tedoro McMillan,
I've already bet the over for his receiving touchdowns at
Betting Pros. Right now he has double digit touchdown upside
in his range of outcomes, unquestionably.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Okay, a couple of names I just want to throw
out it would you rather hear for you? Patton and
Debro Tyreek Hill or tetroa Ted?
Speaker 3 (04:33):
It's Tyreek Hill for me.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Terry McLaurin. That's really close. I think I have got
McLaurin ranked higher. I think I have them back to back. Yeah,
I mean I've got I've got Ted at seven, McLaurin
at eighteen. Some of the holdout hold in stuff could
swaye that, Like right now, in a vacuum, I'll take
Ted DJ Moore. Oh it's easy tt not even close.
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I do have McMillan ranked higher.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
Okay, close? All right, de bro, you're heading to Nashville
for your second favorite value? What are you seeing value wise?
Down there on Broadway?
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Tony Pollard, He's standing on Broadway and he's saying, come on,
love me, love me. Why do you not love me?
He was a top twenty four running back last year
and everything about his situation improved. And yet right now
he's sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR.
He's my fifty second overall player. I have him an
(05:30):
RB nineteen and so yes, I'm expecting him to take
a step forward. He is the guy, like one of
the guys you can get in those middle rounds where
it's just it's talent and it's also volume. So he's
the perfect RB two for regardless of however you're building
your teams or flex play. This guy, everything around him
(05:50):
got better. They made additions to the offensive line. We
know the coaching for that offensive line is going to
be good in Tennessee. Cam Ward hopefully is directing a
better offense. And I know people are like, oh, what
about toys Spears? Doude Pollard proved last year again that
he can be a workhorse, he can be a bell cow.
He was ninth in snapshare, opportunity share and weighted opportunities.
(06:11):
And I know people say, well that if Spears is more,
is healthier? Does that come down? Pollard's the unquestioned leader
this backfield. Maybe a snapshare goes from like seventy five
percent to seventy percent sit in the high sixties. He's
still going to be the leader as far as when
they get into the red zone and as far as
volume again RB twenty two and fantasy points per game.
(06:31):
Last year he was. He was top twenty and both
explosive run rate in sixth and yards after contact per attempt,
so that per touch efficiency is back for Tony Pollard.
He was the RB fifteen and expected fantasy points per game.
So because of bad quarterback play, everything just flaming out
around him. He didn't even produce to the level that
he should have last year because of all those circumstances
(06:54):
surrounding him. Dude, that comes back this year. I mean,
Tony Pollard could be a top fifteen running back based
off a volume in an improved situation. So you tell
me I get him at RB three price tags that
is a crazy value.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
I'm also back in on tonyp here and like you,
you kind of mentioned ninth most weighted opportunities, not the
most efficient running back, but at the same time still
fifteenth in explosive rating as well. And in addition to that,
he saw a light front on only fifty four point
two percent of his carries. That's thirty seventh among running backs.
I think you, yeah, you insert Cam Wore, You insert
(07:28):
at least a better group of supplemental pass catchers on
the outside as well. I think that should help uh fits.
You also in on Tony Pollard, you hand hold him
with deepro and.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
I I'm a little more lukewarm, okay, hollared than you
guys are. He averaged five point one yards per carry
in six point three yards per target over his first
four NFL seasons. Over the last two four point one
per carry, Yeah, four point four yards per target. He
just he hasn't looked like the same guy he was
in Dallas early in his career. And I actually do
(08:00):
like ty J. Spears. Know Spears was kind of a
non factor last year, but I'm giving him a mulligan
in a season where he had two concussions in ankle
issue and a hamstring issue. Like Spears was really electric
in his first year and real quietly caught fifty two
passes as a rookie in twenty twenty three. And now
Brian Callahan is talking about wanting Spears to get more
(08:21):
involved in maybe even having this be like a shared backfield,
so not quite as warm on Tony Pollard, but not
totally out on him either.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Before we keep it moving, I wanted to tell everyone
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(08:51):
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Draft Wizard app. Let's keep the picks coming with fits
his favorite value in all the Land for twenty twenty five.
(09:14):
Taking us back to the quarterback position.
Speaker 3 (09:15):
Who you got, man, it's Drake May. Who's ECRs QB
sixteen one hundred and eighth overall. I have Drake May
QB eight eighty ninth overall. I think he's this year's
Jaden Daniels.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
May.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Drake May started twelve games as a rookie, he left
one game in the second quarter with a concussion, and
in meaningless Week eighteen, he played three snaps before he
got pulled. In the other ten starts, Drake May averaged
seventeen point four Fantasy points per game, which would have
rank QB thirteen among quarterbacks who made more than one start. Now,
if we exclude that Week eighteen game when May was
(09:52):
pulled after one series, he averaged I think it was
thirty seven point two rushing yards per seal, and that
projects to like six hundred and thirty two rushing yards
over a full season. But I would contend that we
just saw the tip of the iceberg. With regard to
Drake May's rushing potential. Nearly all of that rushing yardage
came on scrambles. There were very few designed runs. Alex
(10:13):
van Pelt, the Patriots OC last year, said he limited
the design runs for May to protect him. Now Josh
Daniels is running the Patriots offense. A few months ago,
Nate Tice of Yahoo went back and looked at the
design runs that McDaniels drew up for then thirty one
year old Cam Newton when Cam was starting for the Patriots.
In twenty twenty, and there were a lot of them
(10:35):
and they were effective. Newton ran for twelve touchdowns. Wow.
Drake May had two touchdown runs last year, but when
he was playing his college ball at North Carolina, made
sixteen touchdown runs in twenty six starts. And as a sophomore,
May had six hundred and ninety eight rushing yards in
fourteen games, and college qbs get sack yardage deducted from
(10:55):
their rushing total. May lost about two hundred yards in
sacks that so he was really closer to nine hundred
rushing yards in fourteen games. And as for the passing
end of things, mayde a bad offensive line in a
bad group of wide receivers last year and still managed
to complete sixty six point six percent of his passage
(11:16):
and average a respectable six point seven yards per attempt.
So now the Patriots have shored up the offensive line
and the receiver course still not great, but Stefan Diggs
and rookie Kyle Williams should help. Things like May should
not be going behind Justin Herbert, who's stuck in a
run heavy offense. May should not be going behind Dak
(11:38):
Prescott and Jared Goff who had no rushing value, and
I would contend that May should be going ahead of
Justin Fields because he's in fields class as a runner,
and Drake May is a better passer than Justin Fields is. Yeah,
so I have May rank QB eight. I really do
believe he's going to be a top ten quarterback this
season if he stays healthy. And I'm trying to get
May at a round quarterback thirteen, basically after everyone in
(12:00):
my twelve team league is drafted a starter yep. And
I'm sort of using Justin Fields as an alarm clock
for Drake May. When Fields gets picked, I want to
take Drake May in the next round or two.
Speaker 2 (12:10):
I think that's so smart, and like, if I don't
get one of those big five quarterbacks this season and
the way drafts have been going, I likely will not
be and likely have to punt the position. And if
that's the case, those are my two targets is Justin
Fields and Drake May. As you mentioned, he did only
take thirty percent of the snaps in Week eight before
leaving with that concussion, but since taking over the starting
(12:31):
job in Week six, QB twelve overall QB fourteen points
per game. That's the floor in my opinion, and with
the improveive offensive line, better pass catchers as well, plus
a capable coaching staff, I'm in on Drake May as well. Derek.
Are you also high on the Patriots signal caller?
Speaker 1 (12:49):
Yeah? Man, Like I moved them up in my ranks.
I'm not nearly as high as Fitzy, but like you know, so,
I love FITZI saying it with his chest. I think
there's a definitive chance that May is a top twelve
quarterback this year. I mean just in our projections on
the site. To Fitzy's point, May is eighth and rushing
yards in our projections in tenth rushing attempts. So and again,
like for everybody to contextualize projections, a lot of those
(13:12):
are median outcomes, Like you're not gonna see projection sets
that are putting out like the high end outcome. So
like correct, if he best this, he's gonna be he
could be top five in both of those metrics this year. So,
especially looking at the context of the offense around him.
So Drake May could easily be a top twelve quarterback.
Speaker 2 (13:28):
I love the call, Derek Brown, round us out with
your favorite value. Who's already making waves at Cowboys training
camp as we speak.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Dude, it's George Pickens. He is inappropriately priced. I mean
he's seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two.
I feel like these rankings are living in yesteryear. I
have George Pickens as a top twenty wide receiver. He's
my wide receiver sixteen. Wow, people could be surprised to
hear that. But you're telling me on a Dallas Cowboys
(13:58):
offense that we know is going to be top ten
in passing attempts, where's the ball going outside of Ceedee
Lamb and Jake Ferguson and George Pickens. It is a
consolidated target chair. You saw last year with Pickens in
weeks one through thirteen, before he picked up the hamstring,
he was producing as a top twenty four wide receiver.
(14:18):
He was eighteenth in separation, he was eighth and yards
per route run twenty fifth in route win rate. Again,
he goes from the Pittsburgh freaking Steelers seth you know
this pain well that threw the ball to the fourth
lowest rate. They had the fourth fewest passing attempts last year.
He's going to the Dallas Cowboys with freaking Cooper Rush
playing half of the season, there were third in passing attempts.
(14:40):
And we don't think that George Pickens can be a
top twenty four wide receiver. That's not where he's ranked.
We're living in yester year. He's gonna go up the
ranks in the process, like as we get training camp clips,
all that kind of stuff. He's a wide receiver too.
I'll say that with my chest. He's gonna be a
wide receiver too, with the volume that he's gonna see.
(15:00):
And if you don't believe any of the other stuff
that I've said in this money talks, he's in a
contract year. Sure, so Pickens wants to get paid. Jerry Jones.
I'm not a Jerry Jones believer, and I'm not going
to talk well about Jerry Jones and probably any other show,
but Jerry Jones has dealt with deva wide receivers pretty
well throughout the entirety in Dallas. We could point back
(15:21):
to Dez Bryant, Terrell, Owens, and a whole other slew
of guys. George Pickens, if he keeps his head on
straight with the passing volume and the talent that he has.
He's a wide receiver two this year, and he's being
drafted and ranked as a wide receiver three. It's wrong.
He's an awesome value, Fitz. Where do you have GP ranked?
Speaker 3 (15:40):
I'm in line with ADP and ECR. I've got him
at wide receiver thirty two. But I also know I'm
too low and I need to move him ahead of
a couple of guys I have ahead of him right now,
like Jay Flowers. For one thing, I would much rather
have Pickens, or rather have Pickens. I know people are
going to be scared off by Ceedee Lamb hogging targets
in Dallas. Deebro lays out the case for that not
(16:02):
being the thing. We should look at the higher passing
volume for Dallas and the fact that Dallas's defense might
not be very good this year. My force Dach Prescott
to be real pass heavy. So yeah, like plus maybe
some lesser matchups or lesser cornerbacks. The Pickens is going
to be facing now that he's the number two, and
you know defense is throw a lot of attention, Lamb.
(16:24):
So I like the.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Call, and we're not discussing them here, But does anybody
think considering the constitution of that running back room that
they're going to be run heavy.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Yeah exactly.
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Yeah, all right, Well that's going to do for us
today on Fantasy Pros. We hope we helped you stretch
that dollar. Thanks so much for watching. As always, the
best freeways support us. Give this video a thumbs up
if you usually this type of content, and make sure
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us now down in the comments below your favorite values
we want to hear from you for Pat fitz Morris
(16:55):
and Derek Brown, Obseet Wilcock take care of y'all. Thanks
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