FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined as always by Derek Brown, Well not
as always, I guess, but joy does sometimes by Derek
Brown and by Jake Seely from the athletic guys. We
were talking some breakout candidates here will be focusing, of course,
some guys in the middle and late rounds. We're gonna
do this countdown style five to one from each of you,

(00:21):
ending with our number one breakout candidates, Debro. How are
you feeling the day after Fantasy Fest?

Speaker 2 (00:28):
I was like, we do ones one or two segments
on fest. I haven't podcasted with you forever, and I
already feel like I hear the hints in your voice
of h got another show with this dude. I'll do
a good worm Love you.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
I love you too. Also, you might notice the two
hours of the fest that I was hosting. I did
the first two hours yesterday, which probably everybody should go
check out. It is available. You can rewatch it on YouTube.
You could pick and choose your favorite segments with favorite
guests if you want. We had JJ Zachareson, Andy Barns,
Tara Roberts, Dave Richard, the Eisenberg, justin Boone, Jake, seely
tons of people on there was a super fun time.

Speaker 3 (01:04):
We say, Barry the lead there, dude, come on.

Speaker 1 (01:06):
Yeah, well I was kind of going in order of
when folks are fured out on this show, but it was,
you know, six hours if you include the hour on
twitch at the end, the after party of a fantasy coverage.
Everybody should go check that out. There's a best of
the fest available audio version on like Spotify and where
you listen to your podcast also, so we had a
ton of fun. I will point out Debro. Then, in
the two hours that I was hosting, I don't think

(01:27):
we discussed a single Ravens player, so you can, you know,
back off of this stands. Finally, it's fine.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
Contractually, I know that you're you're obligated to mention the
Ravens at least once every show, even if it's not
a player, seeing as we've done here, so I get it.

Speaker 3 (01:43):
Check. I will say, if you do want to watch
the mock draft, probably the most fun because Debro and
I were taking shots at each other the entire time,
including I almost cursed live on your stream.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
It's a lot of fun, dude, Well take besides, you know,
hopping on to the fest. What do you have going
on these days, especially over at the Athletic, I.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
Mean the full draft giit is basically almost done at
this point. But I will say I actually did one
by the suggestion of one of the heads of all
the New York Times said the draft mistakes that people make,
because I brought it up at a meeting that we
were doing, somebody asking that in a Q and A,
and so it's the biggest draft mistake everybody makes every
single year. Well not everybody, but you guys know this

(02:22):
wasting your bench. So if you want to go see
how you stop wasting your bench, you can check that out.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
That sounds good, I know that's that's been a talking
point for you a lot this summer as we've done
you know, more shows together. Is the not wasting your bench.
I know it's a big point of view. So definitely,
like great piece of advice. Everybody should go check out
everything that Jake is working on over at the Athletic.

Speaker 3 (02:42):
Which ties in today's piece this, I mean, what we're
doing today. These are ten pieces that should be on
your bench instead.

Speaker 1 (02:48):
Of the last the stretting this game. Yeah, these guys
are mostly not starters, so I mean some of them
might be, but yeah, a lot of bench spots, guys
that can that can break out that we're going to
be looking at. A reminder for everybody that all of
our twenty twenty five consensus rankings tiers can be found
at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. Guys, let's dive right in.
Like I said, we're gonna go five to one here,
so we'll be ending with kind of the biggest breakout candidate.

(03:08):
But obviously these are guys that you know, we believe
in to some degree. All ten of these names. Jake
will start with you. Who's your number five?

Speaker 3 (03:16):
My number five. I'll go to quarterback first. I'm gonna
go to Bryce Young. I know a lot of people
saw the end of last year and talked about his
passing up side, and let's be real, he looked better
than he had at any point in his NFL career.
But I think the more interesting part for me was
the rushing. And it's not like he's running for seven
hundred yards over the course of the season. It's just
that he started calling his own number down the stretch,

(03:36):
which partly hurt you know Dinged Hubbard a little bit,
but I never thought that Bryce Young was gonna step
into the NFL and be like, ah, six seven, eight
hundred yards. But can he be in that realm of
three to four hundred where he chips in five six
seven on the ground just because he has that size
and ability to take his own number. And I know
people are gonna say, oh, he's not pig, No, but
he's thick and for the height that he is in

(03:58):
the thickness, he can handle a few of the runs,
handles a few of those shots at the goal line.
And again if he run for five six seven touchdowns
on the top of three or four hundred yards. Oh,
by the way, who were talking about last year who
did this for the first time ever in his career,
Baker Mayfield. And no, I don't think Bryce is gonna
throw for forty five hundred yards and forty touchdowns. But
I'm just saying, when you add that facet off, we
were hoping to see the passing carrying over to this season.

(04:19):
If that does at all, and he adds that dimension,
we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end
of the year as a fringe QB one and he's
outside the top twenty if you're gonna double dip late.
McCarthy is a great one. But I don't think that
Bryce Young's that far behind McCarthy for their potential ceilings.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
I really agree with this call when I look at
where he's raised. He's QB twenty two in ECR right now,
and I look at that and I go, I feel
reasonably confident. Actually he's going to finish better than QB
twenty two, assuming health, because they're worse.

Speaker 3 (04:51):
Twenty two is wrong one way or two is wrong.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
But the problem, I think is like there is just
such a deep position that I'm like, who am I
moving down? If I really want to play on my
flag and say he should be higher, I don't know
who I would move down.

Speaker 3 (05:04):
I'll tell you I have him in front of Tua
because Tua is QB seventeen. Like that, Every single was
like one, yeah, I have him in front of Gino
because does Gino? Yeah, had a good season, but he's
he really going to see a better season with the Raiders.
He's going to be QB sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, and those
are fine quarterbacks. But I don't want QB sixteen. I
don't even want QB fourteen. I want somebody who cold

(05:25):
potentially be top ten, and like I said, twenty two
is wrong. Like if he gets the top ten, cool, yay,
We're all super excited. If he's a bust, you move
on to the next one. Maybe you double tapped with
McCarthy or Love or Stroud on a bounced back season.
And that's why I'm going for.

Speaker 1 (05:39):
It's just remarkable how many names I like it too.
I mean, look, we're into the early to mid twenties
at the position, and the names are Bryce Young, Michael Pennocks,
jut r Gino Smith, Matthew Stafford if his back's okay,
cam Ward number an overall pick. I'm like, these these
guys are are not even QB two's in a lot
of cases some of those names. So it's just a
remarkably deep position. Deever, obviously the guy in this like

(06:01):
twenties range that you like most is JJ McCarthy. That's
an old hat at this point we know that besides
JJ McCarthy is Bryce Young one of your favorites in
this range, because I think Jake le is out a
great case and like we kind of even already saw
it last year. I think Bryce Young is a great
target late for the position.

Speaker 2 (06:17):
Yeah, he's a fantastic target, man, Like, especially in super
flex drafts, He's a fantastic target. And for everything that
Jake laid out, and just to give more context to
that breakout, weeks twelve through eighteen, he was the QB
eight and fantasy points per game. The dude averaged twenty
five point four rushing yards per game, which might not
sound like a lot. If he did that over the
entirety of the full season, that would have been the

(06:38):
twelfth best amongst quarterbacks. So the line that I was
kind of staring at Jake, I want to get your
opinion on this, Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence because I
feel like those two like it is.

Speaker 3 (06:51):
Is what and what with me? I put it this way,
they're almost almost back to back for me, Trevor Lawrence
for me. Yeah, so's case. Trevor Lawrence is last year
Trevor Lawrence before obviously the injury. So like, if you
want to say, hey, I'm going for somebody with QB
one potential, but I don't want to have to drop him,
Trevor Lawrence is your pick. If you're gonna double tap

(07:11):
like I said, Bryce Young would be my Actually think
Bryce Young's ceiling is higher even with the weapons that
Trevor Lawrence has.

Speaker 1 (07:17):
I agreed, I love Young this year. This is this
is We can move on from it. But I just
think this is a great pick. Dude rushed for five
rushing touchdowns in the last six games last season. And
then you add this alpha number one receiver that you know,
I know a lot of us really like too, and
he might be appearing on this list later. So just
a great call, uh Son, the rieman across the board,

(07:38):
Let's go to your number five.

Speaker 2 (07:39):
I'm gonna take the low hanging fruit here. I mean,
it was the name that was gonna get brought up
by either Jake or myself. So I'm just gonna go
ahead and get it over with. I know I'm cheating
a little bit because I understand Bill Crosskey Merrit Jaquori
Crosskey Merrit on the site in the ADPs. It's not
going to catch up aasting off right now. He's sitting
in those like RB sixty to seventy range updating my

(07:59):
ranking this season the RB three range now, and I'm
doing some forecasting, but I got to bring him up
here because everybody's talking about him, and I agree with
the process. Like I know, I've seen all the tweets
and everybody out there like, all right at the one
o three? Who are we taking?

Speaker 1 (08:12):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (08:13):
Bill? Are you taking? Justin? Jeffersoner CD Lamb. But like,
for in all reality's sake, if Brian Robertson Jr. Has
gone from this backfield, I think Jacory Krosky Merrit is
a name that we do need to be discussing. I've
moved him up in my rankings right now at the
time of recording this, I have him at RB thirty two,
So I am forecasting that Brian Robertson Junior is cut

(08:33):
or traded. Now, if that doesn't happen, we get closer
to week one as you're listening to this, rankings and
things like that will change. But I'm putting him right
into that Brian Robertson Junior role. And I understand Chris
Rodriguez is there, and I've loved Chris Rodriguez in previous seasons.
This isn't an anti Chris Rodriguez take. But to me,
if you really believe in Chris Rodriguez one, why didn't

(08:54):
Washington use him at all last year?

Speaker 1 (08:56):
Why was he buried?

Speaker 2 (08:57):
Why they go draft another running back instead of putting
or faith behind him and Jacorey Krossky merit. Even in
the draft process, people got go back and check out
the NFL Draft show for fantasy pros talked about him
there as a player who was being disrespected, Like if
this guy didn't get screwed over by the NCAA in
twenty twenty four, I had a fourth round grade on him.

(09:17):
He was comfortably inside like my top twenty. I think
I had him in like RB sixteen, RB seventeen, and
my rookie rankings post draft. I mean he was fantastic.
Like if you go back to twenty twenty three and
I understand it was at New Mexico, I get that
level of competition. We're still discussing a player that was
nineteenth and yards of the contact pretend amongst all FBS

(09:38):
running backs with at least a hunter carries and twelfth
in elusive rating. So playing this early down role in
the commander's offense. If he gets that role, people need
to be drafting him somewhere around, like a little bit
outside of like that top one hundred, Like if you're
sitting there and you're looking at all these RB three
handcuffed type of candidates that and he might go above

(09:58):
that because again the ADP is rising on him. But
I think that's the range where we should be discussing him,
because if he has that role in this offense and
the goal line role, when alstin Neckwork keeps his standalone
pass game role, we're discussing a guy that, like, depending
on how touchdowns go and how the early down volume goes,
he's in that fringe RB two RB three conversation.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
So let me jump in and point out. So we
actually literally just this week launched something called real time ADP.

Speaker 2 (10:28):
You didn't bring up.

Speaker 1 (10:30):
Yeah, and so this is a great example of that. Now,
this is still going to sound pretty low because people
are still in the process of catching up because this
is all like very recent. So I think this number
will continue to go up even higher. He is up
to an early twelveth round pick. He had been multiple
rounds behind that prior to this, so he's already jumped
to life. If you're looking at real time ADP, it's
got him as sort of like the twelve oh four

(10:51):
right now, Again, that is that is multiple rounds up
over what it was just just over twenty four hours ago.
That is going to continue to rise. But real time ADP,
this new future we have in side, I would highly
recommend everybody check it out. ADP in general is kind
of a lagging indicator at times. This is going to
kind of keep that updated. We have our data science team,
which is amazing kind of work to put this together
and show like where guys are actually going like as

(11:14):
of this week, as of even just the day before,
as of that day when you get to these really
busy draft weekends with our SYNC leagues, So keep an
eye on that. For examples like this, I think back
to like Damian Pierce a couple of years ago, when
it became clear he was going to start for Houston,
like late August, he jumped up to like, you know, fifth,
a sixth round pick when he had been going away.
This is sort of a similar scenario where where he's

(11:35):
going to keep rising. Jake two questions, One what do
you think of Krosskey Merrit? And two are you officially
going to call him Jacory or Bill.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
We Go? You know, the funny thing is I'd be
more upset by that. But if anybody knows my story
that my Jake name is actually not my name and
what my real name is. I can't get too angry
at him. So that's a podcast for another day. But
like I like krossky Merritt, I'm slightly behind where Debro
has him. I am at thirty seven, but I'm right
behind like Tank bigs By Judkins with his situation. But

(12:06):
I think the Judgkins situation is one where he should
fall into because Judgins still isn't with the Browns, Like
we got the news that he's cleared and then everything like,
but we're still waiting and we're assuming he's going to
be the lead. But I think that's a fair spot
to have him because assuming Brian Robinson is gone, we're
assuming krossky Merrit is going to be the lead. Brought
this up when we did the mock draft. It's not

(12:26):
that I don't like krossky Merrit. I just think that
what Deebro just said, like Rodriguez is a good talent.
I would put him third on this depth chart. But
I think the one the interesting part here is Eckler's
role is safe. Eckler is going to be Eckler no
matter who's the lead. And that's where I'm saying, like, Okay,
take crosskey Merrit, give him Brian Robinson's role. Well, then
he puts up Brian Robinson's numbers. And it's not that

(12:48):
I don't like that, it's just where's the ceiling? And
I think that Debro kind of say that you're potentially
looking at back end RB two, But I think that
might be it for him, just because unless Eckler gets hurt,
I just don't think there's enough touches as hell at
the worst case scenario is Rodriguez is involved and all
of a sudden, we're looking at a full blown committee
and we're banging our heads against the wall because we
also have a running back or a running quarterback who

(13:10):
every time we have these kinds of situations, you go
back to Cam Newton and justin feels like we want
one running back next to those guys. We don't want
two possibly three. So I think where we have him now,
like I said, I have him at thirty six, Debro
has him slightly higher. I think that's where he needs
to be because you're taking the upside chance but also
baking in enough risk that he's not the guy don't
go draft him in Week five this week, and because

(13:30):
you want to look super smart when when your league
is drafting.

Speaker 1 (13:34):
I had a joke that I put out on Social
It was me drafting Jacory Krofsky Merritt in the third
round of my live draft, and the image was just
the office, Have I feel God in this Chili's tonight?
Like I think people are going to feel God with
some of these rounds. Are going to be taking the
bill in at some point this season. But you know,

(13:57):
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Speaker 1 (15:25):
All right, Jake, who is your number four breakout? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (15:28):
I'm gonna go to Cedric Tillman. And this was kind
of somebody that I was looking to get way late in drafts,
even before we got the Joe Flacco news at quarterback.
And even if they do turn to Sanders or Gabriel
at some point, I don't think that's the end of
the world for Tillman. But we all remember last year
how excited we got during that stretch, and it really
lasted four games. The fourth game wasn't all super exciting,

(15:49):
But we were talking about not just the touchdowns, because
of course that's going to inflate the numbers. He didn't
have one hundred yards in any of those games. He
had ninety nine and one of them. But the biggest
thing about it is we were talking about the target.
We're talking about forty targets over four games. Is Cedric
Tillman was. It's not like Jerry Judy was dead at
that point. It's not like we're talking about it he
wasn't in existence, so forty targets over those four games.

(16:10):
I don't think Tilman is going to average ten targets
per game and have one hundred and seventy this year.
But the upside of that before he got hurt, even
if he's just averaging six seven targets per game, for
somebody that's going super late in draft, that can be
the number two. And I know in Jokhu's a thing,
but let's talk about the number. I think Ian Hardis
was the first to bring it up about Joe Flacco
over his last seventeen full games where he didn't get

(16:32):
hurt or come in for somebody who got hurt. Over
his last seventeen games, He's the lead leaguer in passing yards,
like the dude's gonna fling it, even on the Browns.
So yes, they could change quarterback at some point, whether
it's Flacco's play or an injury. But I just look
at Tilman as like at least a hot start to
the season that maybe you flip before that situation comes up.

Speaker 1 (16:51):
I think my favorite stat that I ever put on
the Fantasy Bro's social accounts was in like December a
couple of years Ago and Joe Flacco had more passing
touchdowns than Kenny Pickett ever had in his career, and
he was like on this heater And I also just
enjoyed knocking Kenny Pickett, but yeah, Flacco like, so I

(17:12):
told the story before we did a Fantasy pros. We
do like a double NFL stadium trip every one weekend
every year, and and for the content team it's often
hard to go. I did attend it last year, so
I was super fun. And we did last year. One
of the games was Ravens at Browns. Uh. It was
like we gate or whatever. Is the one that the
Ravens lost against Jameis Winston to the Browns. I've talked

(17:33):
about the Ravens lose.

Speaker 2 (17:34):
It just.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
Looks so dominant. It's one of those games where where
you watch a guy in person and he just passes
the eye test so well that you're like, this guy, like,
I'm just convinced that Seed good Tillman is a stud
and I will believe that until the day he retires,
even if stats and future performance proved me wrong. Because
I watched him look so utterly dominant in person once.
I just think he's a really good player. And I

(18:00):
think the injury at the end of last season, the
concussion stuff like is coloring the opinion of everybody and
like maybe not remembering what he was doing in those
first couple of weeks. Now quarterback situation really matters, so
Flacco being in there is great. We hope that lasts
from the Cedric Tillman perspective, But this is another one
that I like, I really strongly agree with you, Jake
on cedracle.

Speaker 3 (18:20):
Look at this. I just did some quick numbers, not
even going back to Ian's tweet his last fourteen games
where he was the full starter beginning to end forty
two hundred yards. That's insane.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
Not too bad, not bad deve Ro what he got, uh?

Speaker 2 (18:35):
I mean, well Tilman Man, Like, I mean, the volume
can be definitely there, and I think one of the
things that helps him, like maybe a sind quicker as
far as the number two target or at least competing
within Joku for that spot is dude, I was all
in on Deontay Johnson as like a last round pick.
The vibes have been pretty bad throughout camp, like came
in out of shape things like that, Like there's worries

(18:55):
like again like like Jake just mentioned, like I don't
know if he's on the roster week on, so again,
like my worries were. You know, the thing that I
was talking about earlier in the offseason was if Deontay
Johnson didn't get cut, like if he didn't move on
from Carolina where we'd be drafting him. But you come
in and like a team offers you a contract that
you were like just sitting at home on the couch
for much of the offseason and you're basically out of shape,

(19:17):
You're not ready. That's not good, dude, So yes, that
that increases the pathway for Cedric Tillman.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Yeah, all right, de bro, Let's go to your number
four dude.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
We've talked about him on a bunch of shows. Need
to talk about him again. Here it's Tucker Craft. I mean,
going is the tight end eleven? I mean what he
did on a per route basis, And we all have
our own takes about, Okay, who is the Packers wide
receiver to draft this year? Who's the guy that could
step up might not be a wide receiver at all,
could be their tight end. And the skill set, I mean,

(19:46):
he's an athletic marvel. So we know that the high
end athleticism is tied to possible high end outcomes or
at least gives you that opportunity. At the tight end position,
it's with the most correlated or highly correlated position two
athleticism and all of fantasy, like we talk about a
year after year, like just because you run really fast
than a straight line doesn't mean that you're gonna be

(20:06):
a good wide receiver. We see running backs who run
four six's and stuff like that produced because of volume
and one have you in fantasy. But with tight end
you've got to be a top tier athlete or you're
not gonna put up possible top tier numbers and craft.
I mean, the guy is just a medical marvel, Like
he's he's athletic as I'll get out. You look at
the per route metrics last year. I mean, yes, he

(20:26):
was twentieth in target share. Yes he was twenty seventh
first read chair if those numbers come around, because again,
target volume is a reflection of not only of talent,
and those targets are earned. Craft could earn a craft
on he's I mean, he's a quietly good bet to
maybe lead the packers and targets this year and If
he does that, he's gonna have a massive breakout season

(20:48):
because the perrout efficiency was awesome last year. Like amongst
all forty seven qualifying tight ends last year, Tucker Craft
twelfth most receiving yards. Again on little limited volume that
I talked about, he was seventh yards per run, third
and miss tackles forced, and he was first in yak
per reception. So the per route numbers scream that if
the Green Bay Packers want to feature arguably their most

(21:10):
talented pass catcher on that roster, that could be Tucker Craft.
And if this all happens, that he could be sniffing
like top five, top six type of production this year.

Speaker 1 (21:19):
Do you think, Deebro, there's a chance I mean you
said top five, top six. Do you think there's a
chance of him breaking into the top three or is
that just too strong? With Bowers, McBride and Kittle.

Speaker 2 (21:28):
It's possible. But with those guys, what they need to
happen for him to even sniff that rarefied air. The
Packers are going to have to lean back into the
passing game, and not like in a league average passing rate,
but they're going to have to be somewhere in like
the top fourteen to fifteen type of filum as far
as passing rate for him to get the target volume

(21:49):
to even be close to competing with those guys. If
that doesn't happen, the no, I think the more like
high end expectations for him is probably top five, top
six Jick.

Speaker 1 (22:00):
Do you think there's enough volume there for anybody in
this Packers offense? I mean the reputation, like bridebro is
alluding to, is that the ball gets spread out a lot.
That's what a lot of people talk about. Do you
think Craft can rise above that and have this kind
of like top five ish tight end season.

Speaker 3 (22:14):
I do, mostly because it's a twofold factor here is
that we expect better for Jordan Love. The guy was
basically dealing with an injury from the gate jump out
of the gate, and then got injured again, and so
he's dealing with two last year. I know he's already
got the thumb with that's. On the other hand, I
think that if you see Jordan Love bounce back, you
want to talk about injuries. We are also dealing with
injuries to Dobbs Wicks, Saveon Williams. He was even heard

(22:37):
the other rookie, Like it's down the line, we have
one clear option, Matthew Golden is clearly going to be
the one, but it's actually read even got banged up
this preseason, like who's healthy? So like the biggest question
here might be this might be the Chiefs, this might
be the other teams where the tight end is actually
the number two. And if so, I was actually gonna
ask debro this because I'm really curious. Is back when

(22:57):
the draft happened, I made a joke and people came
for me. I was like, but I made a joke.
It's like, it's weird that they took the better tight
end around later when they took Kraft after Musgrave and
oh my god, the people that came for me on
that just wait, so were you on me with that one?
Because that's what Okay, there is a.

Speaker 2 (23:14):
Receipt out there. I tweeted this right after the draft.
I was a big Tucker Craft guy in that draft
class and I was not in a Luke Musgrave. I
tweeted this, and people can go search X for it.
It's still out there somewhere in the ether that this
was the same exact situation as when Baltimore drafted Hayden
Hurst and Mark Andrews, and Kraft was the Andrews in
this conversation.

Speaker 1 (23:35):
Now, who's bringing up the Ravens, do you bro Well.

Speaker 2 (23:37):
I mean, I'm just trying.

Speaker 1 (23:41):
No, no, I actually I actually agreed that. I think
that's a good comp in terms, is like the better
guy going later. I think I might be misremembering, but
I think what the year the Ravens took Likely it
was after they took Kohler. It was in the same route.
I forget they took first, but that's like another one
where like the better tight end goes later. I think
likely might have been taking I can't remember they were
taking this. To look it up, it was a year
they had like five fourth round picks, so I don't

(24:02):
remember the order. But to your point, like the clear
example there is like Andrews and Hurst ays, like a
comp is the same, I totally agree with you. Like
like Kraft, I liked Craft better. I'm not as in
the weeds with the prospects as you guys are, but
like I also liked Craft better, so I would love
to see him get the volume for this to pan out.
I'm pretty invested in Craft and Dynasty I think he's
a really talented player, and I just like you talk

(24:25):
about d Road. The per route metrics are so good
that like I want to see him get more opportunity
because I just think he's a really good player.

Speaker 2 (24:32):
Yes, to your point, Kohler went at four to twenty
three and a Likely was eleven picks behind him, So.

Speaker 3 (24:38):
Yeah, I don't want raise it.

Speaker 2 (24:39):
Ravens knowledge, of course, Welee Weeks pick nothing less from Worm.

Speaker 1 (24:42):
I think what it was was they wanted Calvin Austin,
and then the Steelers like traded up and took Austin,
and so then the Ravens had to switch and they
were like, well we do like Likely even though we
already got a tight end. So yeah, I mean it happened.
It's happened on more than one occasion that a team
like takes multiple tight ends in the same draft from
the second guy is just better.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
M HM agreed.

Speaker 1 (25:02):
All right, Jake, let's go to your number three breakout candidate.

Speaker 3 (25:06):
This one might feel a little layup ish just because
of the recent news, but I just wanted to point
out Braylon Allen to call back you and I I'm
talking to Worm here on this one. This was like
two months ago at this point where we were talking
about Justin Fields and looped in the running back situation.
I said it was explaining I think it was one
of those running backs were not drafting in quotes or
something like that, and I was saying why I was

(25:27):
out on Brice Hall and to check the receipts. And
this isn't to be like, haha, this is all we're
doing today is checking receipts and victory lapping. But I
want to bring up the reason of why I was
off Breece Hall, and it's because if you look back
at Justin Field's teams and back with the Bears in
his best season, the running back that was next to
him when they were inside the ten and getting the
touchdown equity was the bigger back. Because it offsets field

(25:51):
style when you get to the goal line, the pass catching,
elusive running back kind of biles things up a little
bit for what they're both. You basically have two guys
trying to do the same. So you bring in the
bigger back and you kind of offset with the defense
is prepared for you. Now you have to stuff the middle,
but also extend outside to prevent fields or the elusiveness.
So that's why I brought it up. It's like I
was really concerned that Braylan Allen was not just going

(26:13):
to be a time share, but he was going to
steal these important touchdown equity carries in a backfield where
we go back to the running quarterback. Is that's kind
of what we have to chase when you're talking about
a split backfield. And I don't think Breese Hall is
going to be terrible. I would still take him as
a mid low RB two, but I think Braylan Allen's
in the conversation to steal the work and I would
almost give it the reverse of the Steelers last year,

(26:33):
like basically if jaaln Warren was the lead in Naje
Harris was the second piece. I think that's what we
can see for the Jets, which again goes back to
the touchdown equity and all that being said, I do
think there's a non zero chance where he's so good
that all of a sudden Brie Hall's kicked into the
complimentary piece. That's a possible outcome here. So I think
that Braylan Allen not only getting to relevancy where you

(26:56):
can use him, but also having the upside, if Breesehall
were too stumble or well, if he got hurt, Brayleon
Allen would be a top twenty running back option. So
I think there's a lot of appeal for Braylon Allen
those mid rounds.

Speaker 1 (27:07):
Deebro, where are you at on Alan? Is he somebody
that you are reaching for, like in the anticipation of
maybe a better workload and a possible breakout or are
you going against Jake on this one?

Speaker 2 (27:17):
No, I'm fine with Braylon Allen where he goes. I
think if you're trying to catch up with running back
or if you're playing the outcomes, the possible outcomes and
the Jets backfield, there's an easy like there's a na
zero chance that Breesehall is gone. They trade him away
at some point this season, and Braylan Allen is the
guy that where you plug in and he's maybe like
a touchdown dependent flex at the beginning of the year,
and maybe he vaults to being an RB two. Because

(27:39):
I do believe whether it's Breecee Hall and Breylan Allen
or Isaiah Davis and Braylan Allen, this is going to
stay at committee. But Kim Braylan Allen usurp or can
he take the lead of that committee because the vibes
around Breese Hall and the preseason usage we've seen so far,
it's been split almost down the middle, and Aaron Glenn

(28:00):
has been true to his word, like they're gonna use
multiple backs. So like where he goes and drafts is
totally fine taking.

Speaker 3 (28:05):
A shot on it.

Speaker 1 (28:06):
Where's he ranked for you?

Speaker 2 (28:07):
De bro Ooh, I've got him somewhere in the RB
three conversation.

Speaker 1 (28:11):
Somewhere. He's RB forty six in ECR right now.

Speaker 2 (28:14):
I've got him somewhere in that RB three conversation. Depending
on the day. I'm still kind of shit. Like today,
I'm kind of updating ranked.

Speaker 3 (28:20):
So you take Braylan Allen Joe Mixon if you draft today.

Speaker 2 (28:23):
Oh, good lord, Braylan Allen, I'm not sure Joe Mixon's
is straight up, Joe Mixon is off my draft board.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
Not not driving around fourteen not.

Speaker 2 (28:31):
I'm not prized in forcing. I want nothing to do
with Joe.

Speaker 3 (28:33):
Joe asked me that the other day. What's the price
enforcement on Joe Mixon is like none?

Speaker 1 (28:40):
Zero?

Speaker 2 (28:40):
Yeah, yeah, not doing it?

Speaker 1 (28:43):
No, no, not of less interest. It's there there's a
great sign that I've used as a meme on the
Fantasy PRES's account before. It's some car dealership and it
just says zero percent interest. That is me with Joe
Mixon in drafts. I have zero percent interests.

Speaker 3 (28:57):
He who runs the Fantasy Pro social account. By the way, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (29:02):
All right, let's go to a deray your number three.

Speaker 2 (29:05):
Yeah, so the third guy again, like kind of we
were talking about low hanging Fred here. I feel like
this is obvious, but we got to talk about him. Man,
Ricky Piersoll, Like he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP,
like you see him anywhere from like the wide receiver
three to the wide receiver four range. I want to
stay above consensus because I think the breakout is real
and it's coming. Man. Like, I went back and this

(29:25):
past Sunday, I watched all the all twenty two so
far of the preseason of Ricky Piersoll. Earlier this offseason,
I went back and I watched all of his routes
from last season, and the usage changed throughout the season
for Piersol, and I think we're seeing a different player
than we saw at any point so far in the
preseason and we saw any point last year, his Christmas

(29:47):
getting off the line, his releases, his en route, ability
to gear down and separate has been fantastic. You've seen
in the preseason, like there's been talks about him and
Rock Party working out in the all season, and you
saw the continuity in the preseason. There's one particular route
where piersol is either running a slant or an over route.
I forget the exact route he was running, but during

(30:09):
that he's crossing the middle of the field and you're like, dude,
if you can going the way you're going, you're just
gonna get washed out. In the play, he sits down
as Party's move in to his left. He sits down
in the middle of his own coverage. Party. It's like
he anticipated he was going to do that and nails
him on the crosser. And so I think you're seeing
the continuity the role and the player's talent just bubble

(30:30):
to the top. And then when we zoom out about
this offense, we don't know when we're going to see
a healthy and effective version of Brandon Aiyuk Jwan Jennings
is dealing with the calf injury, whether that's real or
contract related, we can all discuss, but then it's this
passing attack boils down to especially in the early going,
Like everybody keeps talking about Juwan Jennings and what he

(30:51):
did last year. Dude, what if that's the Ricky Piersoll
role this year? What if he's the guy getting the
thirty percent first reach here? And we saw that at
the very two last games of life season where he
was operating that role and he looked freaking amazing at
doing it like in those two games. And I know
it's a small sample, but we have seen him flash.
We have seen them feature in him in a high

(31:12):
volume role where he was the wide receiver seven and
the wide receiver fourteen. In those two weeks, he almost
a twenty two percent target chair and he had a
thirty point four percent first read cheer and he crushed.
So I think we're looking at like, yes, this is
a guy who has former first round draft capital. You
look at all the parts or pieces around him and
it just screams, we need to be above market and

(31:32):
this guy is heading for a huge season.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
It's funny because we did a breakout segment with Andy
Barns and Andrew Erickson on the fest yesterday and Andy
picked Ricky Piercell and he said the same thing you
did at the beginning, which is it kind of feels
like low hanging through, like might be too obvious of
a pick, but I think it's worth continuing to bring
up because he is still righted, I mean, his his
ECR is wide Receiver thirty six. Ed Parents was saying,

(31:59):
he was like, I have him as like borderlining, like
as an RB two, Like this is a guy that
should be going out of the top twenty four given
all the stuff that you just listened out. And he was,
you know, making some more points yesterday, like I don't
know if you would rank him there. That that kind
of tier of receivers is very big. We've talked about
that before, Jake, Those like kind of mid twenties into
the thirties range of receivers can go a lot of
different directions. But Pearsall is currently at the back end

(32:21):
of that technically is at the top of tier six
right now. And that just like it's not going up
despite the fact that we keep bringing him up and
saying this is too obvious of a pick, but we
have to keep bringing it up because he is still
ranked in an area that just just feels too low Jake.

Speaker 3 (32:34):
So when I opened this list, the first name I
noticed on Deebros. Was like son of ap he took
Ricky pearsoll just I mean, I just knew it like
and to be fair, like I actually had him as
my number one, So ha haa do we take you
one step forward? Now? But if you were watching the video,
I pointed at Debro when he said one thing, and
I'm glad he brought this up. So when Pearsall came

(32:55):
out of college and actually said coming out of college,
he's Darius Slayton right now, because because he doesn't work
zone well. And what Deebra just said is like he
will run straight through the openings and zone. He won't
sit down, he won't find the space, He'll just keep
running and not know when to stop the routes or
pull them off. And you saw that development shortly at
the end of last year. Deebra brought up a really

(33:17):
good point in the fact that yeah, everybody's like, well,
he didn't have much through his first couple of games
until the end he was being used differently. Again, there's
development with how the team and the player both go
hand in hand, and everybody wants to talk about Jennings,
and admittedly so, but let's talk about if not for
that forty point game, after that, and Jennings was already
the dude at that point. After that, he had five

(33:38):
more games of double digit points. Three of those were
between ten and twelve, not even huge games. And after
that point as well, six games of seven points are fewer.
It's not even like he was gangbusters after that huge game.
He was basically a boom or bust wide receiver four.
So if you're looking who steps into this role, which
is the one thing I want to bring up too,

(33:58):
is I said that a few months ago. Is I
know Debra luck of this too is that when au
comes back, I kept bringing up Ayuk's threat is Jennings,
Like Jennings loses his job when I comes back. Ayuk
does not replace Piercell. Piercell stays. Piercell fits the deebo role.
He's not Debo, but he filts that role. And that's
what's most important here. I cannot agree more on Ricky Piersel.

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home of Fantasy Sports. Jake, let's go to your number two.

Speaker 3 (35:39):
Actually forgot my number. I was so jazzed up for
Ricky Pearson.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
Love it.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
It's Marvin Mims. And this is going to be strange
for anybody that's listened to me throughout the years, because
I was never the biggest Marvin Mims fan. One of
the things that I said about him was he's a
possession wide receiver, which immediately creates a perception. People lose
their minds for that one of these because people think possession,
they think ten yards and down. My point about that
is that Marvion Mims, it can be twenty five forty

(36:04):
yards downfield, but he catches the ball and goes down.
That was my point. It's like wherever he catches it
and the story it's over. There's no yak with him.
And that was my biggest concern is that it's just
where he's going to be on the field when he
catches the ball and then cool whatever. So he's really
dictating on how many targets he gets, how big of
his plays are. And yes, he has tons of big playability,
somebody else who's developing and not surprisingly developing under Sean Payton.

(36:28):
And I know there's been late talk with all the
other wide receivers and maybe another one steps up, but
as of what we've seen so far, he's clearly been
the number two. He's been run out there as the
number two. He's coming off the field with the starters,
and if he has any development underneath the Sean Payton.
I was not a huge fan of Pat Bryant, but
I like Pat Bryant after the drafting position because like, hey,

(36:49):
there's some similarities to like a Michael Thomas, big slot option.
Well he doesn't always have to run in the slot,
that being Marvin Mims, but a similar style profile if
that Sean Payton has turned him into that, which is
very possible. And now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly
is the number two and potentially having one hundred and
plus one hundred plus targets. Because here's the really other
interesting part not to come for Evan Ingram, but Evan

(37:11):
Ingram's used so far in the preseason has not been
the joker and not been in a very heavy target basis,
as he's been rolling out some two tight end sets
and even some single tight end sets which haven't included Ingram.
So if we're looking for who the two is similar
to the Craft situation, the two that we know right
now is actually Marvin Mims.

Speaker 1 (37:31):
I want to ask you this, Jake, Marvin Mims is
wide receiver fifty eight in ECR to Sevil Tilman is
wide receiver fifty seven in ECO.

Speaker 3 (37:38):
Oh, take things Marvin Mims more than ten, and that's
why it's higher up on my list. But I would
take both well well over ACR right now.

Speaker 1 (37:47):
Yeah, late late fifties is pretty low for those guys
like Brandon Ayuk is ahead of both of them with
his injury stuff going on. Christian Kirk is ahead of
both of them. I'd rather take them Darnold Moony.

Speaker 3 (38:00):
Ray Morris was like, we hope to see Darnel Mooney
this season. He said, this season? How are we still
taking Mooney over both of them?

Speaker 1 (38:09):
Yeah? Bateman, who I like, is ahead of both of them.
I think that's a mistake.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
Oh good, tell me what four good games Bateman's gonna have,
and then you can draft exactly. If you can tell
me the four good weeks, go right ahead.

Speaker 1 (38:20):
Yeah, so yeah, no, they're they're they're like, that's it's
funny that they're both backed back. Uh. De bro, you
have a long history with Marvin Mims. What do you
think about him this year as a breakout candidate?

Speaker 2 (38:30):
Dude? I think it's very telling. And I was honestly
shocked when he came out and what was it, was
it preseason week one or week two? And he ran
what was it? Fifteen? I'm pulling this all out of memory,
fifteen of the sixteen snaps that the starters ran, and
he's on the field and two wide receiver sets, Like
I wasn't expecting that dude, to be honest, like, I

(38:51):
especially if you look at his usage last year, it
was so gadgety. It was backfield stuff, backfield routes. His
design target rate was through the freaking roof, And I
was like, oh, dude, this is this is not a
guy we're gonna like worry about this year. I bumped
up his ranking, like I had him languishing in like
the low sixties, high seventies. I bumped him up to

(39:14):
where I'm basically kind of like even with ECR, like
I'm in the like somewhere in the fifties on a
daily basis with him because I want to be even
with ECR with him because that full time role I
wasn't expecting. But again, like it comes back to the preseason,
how what do we take away from from their usage?
What is good like good usage nuggets and what is

(39:36):
paralysis by over analysis? And I think the usage from
Marvin Mims is something we do need to take into
account with how we're looking at his ranking, how we're
looking at and projecting his role for this year. And again,
as we learn more about these players, what do you
take away and what do you just toss the and
the trash and say, ah, that's that's noise, that's garbage.

Speaker 1 (39:57):
Yeah, let's go to your number two you bro.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
Oh man, it's the guy that I've I've been above consensus,
remain above consensus. It's funny. Jake and I were talking
about him pre show before we turned on the MIC's
and and the cameras. But George Pickens, baby breakout season
here for it. I tweeted this out and I fully
believe this this year, the Dallas Cowboys are going to
be this year's version of the Cincinnati Bengals. And in

(40:21):
this comparison, I'm making George Pickens can be the T
Higgins in this offense. I bumped up his ranking. I
still think adp ecr best ball all the things. He's
still going too freaking late. The breakout is coming. And
for a player that I'm comfortably ranking him aggressively as
a wide receiver two and he's being drafted as a

(40:43):
wide receiver three. The talent is there now, the volume
is going to be there. Going from a Pittsburgh Steelers
offense last year those bottom ten and passing attempts to
a Dallas offense we know is going to be top
five to ten in passing attempts. It's wheels up for
George Pickens man. And last year Arthur Smith could not
stop him from putting up strong per route metrics, where

(41:05):
before the hamstring injury weeks one through thirteen, this dude
was eighteenth in separation and eighth in yards per route run.
He's not coming off the field. We're not going to
get any of the Arthur Smith ignorance this year. Like
Dallas knows where their bread needs to be buttered, and
George Pickens all the vibes are awesome. That's the other thing.
In a contract year where we're talking about Jerry's doing

(41:26):
stupid stuff with Michael Parsons. Everything is aces up right now.
So far in the preseason and camp for George Pickens.
I don't know if Dallas pays him or not, but
he is going to put up one heck of a
season and really make the case that Jerry's gonna have
to open up the pocketbook yet again.

Speaker 1 (41:44):
Where do you have him ranked Stever, He's currently ECR
is wide receiver twenty nine and half PPR scoring. Is
that to it sounds like you're saying this too low?

Speaker 2 (41:51):
Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that
top fifteen.

Speaker 1 (41:56):
I figured you'd be high, much higher. Actually I didn't
realize top fifteen. Wow, What do you think about that?

Speaker 3 (42:01):
Jake? That's I'm wowed by it. But I think it's
in the world of possibilities because the one conversation that
Debro and I were having before this show is that
his name needs to be in there with t Higgins
and Jamison Williams and Devata Smith and all the twos
on offenses where the volume is there clearly the option, Yeah,
Jake Ferguson could bounce back, but he like, it's not

(42:21):
going to be the volume that George Pickens is gonna
see and just kind of similar to those names. And
the biggest thing is that if he finishes fifteen, you know,
deebro is going to look super smart. But the thing
is even if he finishes wide receiver twenty five, that's
not going to be like he was wrong. It's just
it might be a difference of one or two touchdowns
because this tier is so enormous. I mean, we go
from t Higgins at what I have him as like

(42:43):
wide receiver thirteen fourteen, and you go down to where
I have like Jalen Wattle. Jayla Wall is another one
that should be in this conversation, Jalen Wattle into the
mid twenties, and the difference between them are like one
to two points per game, if even too it's more
like one one and a half. So it's not a
huge difference. So yeah, it might sound crazy, he'd be like,
oh my god, why receiver fifteen, But he's just making
a statement and that like he thinks that's the real

(43:04):
upside for Pickens. I might not disagree. I mean I agree,
I disagree, but I still have Pickens in the high twenties.
So it's like that I'm not that.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
Far off, yep, that long tier. It comes down to volume,
and it comes down to touchdowns and stuff like that.
And I just I think when we look at the
projection of Pickens his volume median and upside case with
how much Dallas is gonna throw the fricking ball, we
know where the ball is going. The running backs are
not gonna take a huge chunk of the passing game

(43:33):
out of this. Even if Jayden Blue like breaks out
in a full way, I don't think he's a guy
that's getting seventy, like sixty seventy eighty targets in that offense.
So it's like, where does the volume go? If Dak
Prescott is going to be top five to ten in
passing attempts, where does the volume go? We know Cede Lamb,
but dude, he's he's gonna get is like one hundred
and sixty, one hundred and eighty targets or whatever. All right,

(43:54):
So where's the rest of it go? Do you think
Jake Ferguson's getting one hundred and fifty targets? Well that's
not happen. So where's it going. It's going right to
George Pickens.

Speaker 1 (44:05):
If you go to player pages on Fantasy Pros and
click on rankings, you can see where each expert has
a guy ranked. Debro is the highest ranked expert on.

Speaker 3 (44:14):
You if you just go to his player pages just
to a picture of Debro.

Speaker 2 (44:17):
Actually, I'm just staring, like at George Pickens. I'm just
staring at the TV. Should look at the rankings.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
De Rose is the highest. He is sixteen spots higher
in then ECR according to our page. There's some you know,
well known guys in the industry who agree with you, though,
like Jacob Gibbs the second highest. Matt Harmon is up there.
He obviously knows receivers really well. Dalton del Don is
up there. So you are on an island in terms
of being the highest, but you're not on an island
in terms of anybody not being.

Speaker 2 (44:44):
You don't say it at all.

Speaker 1 (44:48):
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(45:09):
download the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. It's funny. I
was talking to my sister on the phone yesterday because
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She has three kids under the age of six, and
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her husband, who's in our fantasy league, like our big
family league, has done all these mock drafts already, but
she hasn't had time and I was like, what are
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(45:29):
was like, well, I don't have like an hour. I
was like, are you kidding me? Your brother works for
the site. You think it's going to take you an hour?
These are so quick And she literally said to me,
you should say it on this show so people know
it's really quick and easy. And I was like, this
is all we talk about. What do you.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
Anybody with kids knows that you have the few minutes
of solitude to yourself when you go to the bathroom,
if you're sitting on the fricking toilet. You run a
mockrel fast. It's not hard, It's really.

Speaker 3 (45:56):
Can I say something real quick about that I forgot
my phone downstairs to the toilet this morning. I was
so lost. I didn't know what just staring at the wall,
like what do I do?

Speaker 2 (46:09):
It should be just a daily rule. When the coffee
kicks in, it's time to mock.

Speaker 1 (46:14):
Yes, I yeah, so I was. I won't throw under
the bus by daving her my name, but I will
throw my sister under the bus by saying mock Drafts
are quick and easy. Use the simulator. All right, we
have one breakout candidate left from each of you guys. Jake,
who is your number one?

Speaker 3 (46:32):
This feels like the most lay up of mine. I'm
gonna go with Roman Duns, and I think that's obvious
to a lot of people. But I will say there
are a lot of people that I do an article
every single years. Last year's trash. It's the people that
like really disappointed that nobody ever wants to go back to.
That's another mistake people making drafts is writing people off like, oh,
I'm never gonna draft them again because blank happened to me,

(46:52):
or they didn't do this last year or whatever it
might be, and I get it after the fourth year, Yeah,
it might be hard to convince you to take Kyle
Pitts one more time and the double digit rounds. But
at least he's almost free this year. But Roman Donze,
it was part being his own fault last year, Yes,
Kayleb Williams struggle. Yes, that offense was all over the
map with the firing and Waldron and then there was
a little bit of a brief spell where we're like, okay, cool,

(47:13):
Thomas Brown's fixed things, Kayleb Williams is running a little
bit more making his first reads, and then it reverted
back as Brown had to step up and things change.
But all that being said, Rome was part of the
problem too. There was some consistency issues with him, some
concentration drops. But we're still talking about somebody. If we
go back to last year's draft and we brought up
this question, fits did it a few weeks ago. It's like, hey,
if Pa Checko never got back on the field last year,

(47:35):
wouldn't we be drafting him higher for the injury optimism?
So I went to this and I said, let's say
Roman Donsay was like JJ McCarthy got hurt and never
played his rookie season, he'd be getting drafted higher because
it'd be like, oh my god, we know who Roman
Dunze is the talent and we never saw the disappointment.
But if everything's going to be better for Kaylen Williams
with Ben Johnson, everything's gonna be better for this all offense.

(47:56):
And we're excited about the third and fourth options, about
Luther Burden and Colston Lovelin, who's will has to get
past Cole Kamett. But a point being, if we're excited
about all those, how are you not excited for the
number two, who, by the way, has a world where
he might be the most valuable Bears wide receiver. Because
the interesting thing so far is they're playing a hell
a lot of Dj Moore outside. And I like all

(48:17):
three wide receivers because I think all three can play
the slot and outside to varying levels of success. But
the one that's done the most AmAm Ron Saint Brownness
so far through the preseason, and what we've seen from
team reports has been a doonsay. So I think there
is a world where we get to the end of
the season and all of a sudden, similar to the
conversation that Devanta Adams could outscore Nikola. I'm not gonna

(48:39):
bet that a Dounzay outscores DJ Moore, but I certainly
think it's a possibility.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (48:44):
I have a rule de bro where I'm like, if
I really believe in the talent and the situation and
the player in general, which I do with Roma Dunza,
I am always willing to look past year one. I
am less willing to look past it if it's like
another disappointment in a year two, like you know, fooling one,
that sort of thing, like yeah, but you're one, especially

(49:04):
if I if, especially if it's so easy to explain, right,
like there's a very logical Okham's Razor explanation of yeah,
the situation was terrible and like you said, Jake, it
was somebody that was on a don'sday two but really
tough situation. I'm willing to look past that in year
one and basically draft him as if that didn't happen. Now,
I'm not going to draft him as if he had
a breakout season already and you know, let's go be

(49:26):
super aggressive and I love him or whatever. But I
am willing to give a second chance on somebody like that,
somebody like Kyle Pitts or Trevor Lawrence. It's harder because
it's been multiple times. So Roma Dune day that that
first year, I'm always very willing to do that. So
dro are you also going back to the well on
romadoun Day this year? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (49:41):
I mean he's in that bucket of guys wide receiver
three four range where it's taking shots. You're splitting hairs
on guys, you know, Like I mean, right now in
uh Best BALLADP on fantasypros dot Com you have Ricky
Piersoll and Romadons. They are right back to back at
wide receiver thirty three and wide receiver thirty four, And
it's a very similar conversation. It's guys that didn't fire

(50:02):
last year and who were you in on and who
were you out on? Like I could sit here and
we you know, make the easy case this, you know,
and we talked about this last year was like, Okay,
is Rome heading for a JSN type of rookie season?
We can't all be surprised if that happens. Then it
goes out and happens, and it's like, Okay, well, are
you out.

Speaker 1 (50:19):
Or you back in?

Speaker 2 (50:20):
And I think there's gonna be a lot of different
opinions on Rome and where he's going in drafts.

Speaker 1 (50:24):
I have no issue with right now.

Speaker 3 (50:26):
I love that because that was one of the things
we said about Rome last year. I say we, as
in us even on this show, is that like, hey,
he's being placed on a team third behind two talented
wide receivers and let's be patient. And we just saw
it happen with JSN And what did JSN do last year?
By the way, Okay, like let's realize, like there's a
world that Rome can do it even without a fall
off from DJ Moore.

Speaker 1 (50:47):
Yeah, going in the mid thirties is just I think
it's great because the downside is like, again, you don't
have to draft him as if he already broke out.
This is like a very reasonable call.

Speaker 3 (50:57):
Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bear's
history to throw for four thousand yards and thirty plus touchdowns.
It's gonna go somewhere. DJ moorees, I can have two
thousand yards and twenty five touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
Yep, Room's coming along for the ride if it happens.

Speaker 1 (51:11):
Agreed, Yeah, all right, deb wrap us up with your
number one, which will surprise nobody.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
Yeah, I shouldn't surprise anybody, man. And again I keep
talking about low hanging fruit, but this just feels like
an easy call. And I know he's gotten a lot
of steam because I think people have come around collectively,
like the whole fantasy industry, like this is a guy
I've been talking about since preseason. But man, I want
to stay aggressive. I want to stay above at ECR
and like I've got him as a wide receiver two,

(51:37):
he's still being drafted in so many different formats as
a wide receiver three. And it's Tedo McMillan. I think,
and I'm not projecting this, but I think we could
be living in a world and Worm, I've brought this up,
and I gotta give your flowers. You said this, not
stealing this from you. We easily could be living in
a world at the end of this season where Tedroo
McMillan puts up leak neighbors type of rookie season numbers.

(51:58):
And I don't think that it's crazy. I know people
are going to eye roll, and I know they're going
to say it's insane, but it's not. Man, like if
we just talked about earlier in this show about having
faith and believing what Bryce Youung did last year down
the stretch is real. Canals has come out and talked
about it, and every Dave Knalis quote has come out
and talked about we are going to push heterom Millen,

(52:19):
we are going to feed him, we want to run
this offense through this guy. And everybody's like, oh, well,
what about all the other Really you're worried about Adam
Thielen at this point in his career versus a first
round drafted wide receiver, And I know people shaded him
throughout the entirety of the process. He doesn't watch film,
he's not fast enough go top ten, except he does.

(52:39):
And now he's crushing in the preseason, Like people can
go check the timeline, like there's joint practices where it's
not he's dusting the CB five on a freaking roster.
He's getting open versus Derek freaking Stingley, one of the
best cornerbacks in the NFL. So it's coach speak, it's talent,
it's draft capital, it's belief in Bryce Sjung having a
better year this year year, and quietly the metrics all

(53:02):
line up for teda romy Millen, Like, this is a
guy that I think when we talk about his game,
it's the ability to step in and play the Alpha
X role from day one, and I think he can
do that for a player that over the last two
collegiate seasons he played, had the third and the tenth
most man coverage targets and he smashed versus man coverage.

(53:26):
He was eighth and tenth and yards per route run.
And you marry this with an offense that and again
this has not been brought up enough throughout the offseason.
Carolina was quietly fourth in red zone passing rate last year.
So not only does heat have the leeway or the
pathway to get a ton of targets in this offense.

(53:49):
If Bryce Young can be that guy this season, the
touchdown upside with him is ginormous. Man Like, he could
spike ten to twelve touchdowns this year. If Carolina is
going to run it back in an improved offense with
improved quarterback play and they're going to be top five
to ten rids on passing, right, sign.

Speaker 1 (54:08):
Me up, man.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
It's one of the easiest clicks in all of fantasy
right now.

Speaker 1 (54:11):
Yeah, I feel I feel like people who have been
listening to the show all summer are probably tired of
hearing me make that Milik Neighbors comparison, because I've brought
it up a couple of times. But for those who
are just gonna be to no, I'm wrong. Milik Neighbors,
I think is a better player than Teroa McMillan. But
the situation, like both top ten picks who are stepping
into like they are clearly going to get as many
targets as they can handle. The Panthers, like with what

(54:34):
we saw in the back half of Bryce Young last year,
have a better quarterback situation I think than you know
Milik Neighbors had his rookie season. And what I keep
saying is, like Milik Neighbors, this is the cheapest in
my opinion, that Tedo McMillan will be in drafts for
the next eight to ten years of his career. He
is going to be going higher than this, I think
this time next year. So I want to get the
guy while he is cheap. We know that first round

(54:56):
receivers are a good investment in general. The fit is
it's a hand in glove fit. In this offense, both
in terms of what Dave Canalis is looking for, both
in terms of what Bryce Young needs, both in terms
of what this receiving room needs. It just seems so perfect.
And I don't care, frankly, that he is now going
inside the fifth round. I'm looking at the real time
ADP right now. It's the four run up in the

(55:17):
last week. It's about the five oh five is where
he's going. I don't care. I just think he's really good.
It's a great fit, and I think you're gonna be
really happy with that pick. Jake, what do you think
about Tedrow McMillan.

Speaker 3 (55:29):
So I'm really glad that Derek brought up something that
I kind of said, because this is going to paint
a picture of where it's weird for me is during
the pre draft process, I sat there like this is
the dumbest thing ever. We sat here all year long,
all college football season long, saying Tedoro McGowan's the best
wide receiving. There's draft class all year, all year, all year,
all year. We get to a month before the draft

(55:51):
and it's like, well it might be somebody else, Well
it might like there's you know, let's let's kind of
pick him apart, and I brought it up and I said,
it's kind of like the Ohio state wide receivers every
single year. Garrett Wilson fell into this, Jackson Smith and
Jig but felt this is because we knew them. It's
like people just want to find somebody else to talk
about instead. And I was on that page and then

(56:12):
it's funny. It's like it's been so frustrating to watch
them just buried in drafts, but now it's comes full
circle and it's coming back around because a lot of
people are waking up to what Deebro's saying, what you've said,
what I've said, or whatever. But I feel like it's
going to depend on your draft because I feel top
twenty is a little aggressive for me. And I say
this to say, this is why. It's not that I

(56:32):
don't like McMillan. It's not that I'm worried about Adam
Thielen or Jatavian Sanders or Leaguet or whatever it might be.
It's just I have them for one hundred and thirty
five targets that would rank thirteenth in the NFL last year.
That's a lot of targets to have one hundred and thirty,
you were going to rank inside the top fifteen Almost
every single year. The question comes down to what to
those one hundred and thirty five turn into and where

(56:55):
it could be Brian Thomas eighty semi catches, twelve hundred
yards and ten touchdowns. My concern is it's more Jacobe Myers,
where it's eighty something one thousand and four or five touchdowns. Now,
if Debro's right and they continue to pass like they have,
and I brought up Bryce Young as my first breakout
pick and Bryce Young throws for thirty touchdowns, I'm gonna
be wrong because I have McMillan as my high twenties

(57:17):
like he's not far out, He's still a wide receiver
two for me, and I have him in front of
Marvin Harrison. But I also think that Marvin Harrison's rookie
season is the tell tell concern that you can be
one of the best talents, the situation might hurt you
a little bit. Now, I do think that the Panthers
aren't gonna be stupid like the Cardinals are and be like, hey, Marv,
go throw run the four verts. You know what, you

(57:39):
could run four verts again, run a go route, run four,
like pick a dump. Oh, I'm gonna go off on
Marvin Harrison, like the usage of the Cardinals to can
you tell they're not wrong? The Cardinals are being stupid,
the Panthers will not be. But I'm still concerned basically
on the touchdown and yard's equity because Bryce Young was
down by the bottom end of the league, and yards

(57:59):
per completion, which I found a little bit more stickier
than ariars per attempt, just because it kind of tells you,
like what happens, Like you can attempt forty yard passes
all day long, but if you're not completing any of them,
what does that really matter? So the fact that he's
so low on that I want to see it come up,
and I do believe it can. I just want him
more around wide receiver twenty twenty two, which is still

(58:20):
pretty aggressive. I'm just not going to get into the
bucket of this again. Happens to say, like, if we're
all sitting here, say go get mcmill in. He has
Malik neighbors. Brian Thomas upside. I don't disagree with you,
but don't make the mistake of drafting him in the
third round of your draft. And then now he has
to do that for you to have any return on value.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
I genuinely think he's going to be a top fifteen
receiver this year. But you don't have to draft in there,
which is your point, Like, right, that's the nice part.

Speaker 2 (58:46):
Him in the fourth round. It's fun and you're going
to be ahead of most people.

Speaker 1 (58:49):
If I to pick one receiver who's not currently in
the top twelve who will be consensus top twelve a
year from now, he's my pick, like number one with
a bullet and I just want to plant my flag
in him. I want to be aggressive on him. I
want to make sure that I have him on my
rosters and that if I'm wrong, that that's fine, Like
people are wrong all the time, but like I just
feel I have a lot of conviction in McMillan situation,

(59:12):
I think, I mean the Panthers, we can talk about
this for Bryce Young. Also, the defense is gonna be bad,
like they're gonna throw a ton. And if Bryce Young
is good at all, if he is even and we
always say this, if he is just what he was
in the second half of last year, not even taking
a step forward. If he is just what he was
in the second half that is more than good enough
to support a talent like Tedoro McMillan.

Speaker 2 (59:31):
To Jake's point, if we were to take Marvin Harrison
junior and air dropped him into the Carolina Panthers offense
and we didn't see the rookie season and stuff like that,
where the hell will we be taking Marvin Harrison junior
in this same situation. Yeah, you know, so, I just
think it's it comes down to prospect fatigue, like Jake
talked about, and it comes down to people. Everybody like

(59:51):
shaded this wide receiver class and they shaded Tedo McMillan
and they said all these different things, and it's like
like you got to separate what's real and from the
bls annoying.

Speaker 1 (01:00:00):
To Jake's point, I kind of want to do a
dynasty league where we have our rookie draft just like
the first week of January. I know you wouldn't know
landing spots, but like, I don't want to get thrown
off by all this other stuff. I just want to say, like,
you know, who was really good the last four months
I was watching college football? TARTAROA. McMillan. I know he
wasn't as good as it was the year before, but
like he was still like, I'm tired of what we're

(01:00:21):
thinking it.

Speaker 3 (01:00:22):
If I ever stepped out of this industry and I
just want to burn my career to the ground. I've
done some research on people's draft positions of players at
the end of the college football season too, when the
actual draft happens, when nothing is going on, and the
changes and how wrong some of the are. I'm just saying,
I have some receipts that I'm going to burn everything
if Evil Jake pops up after my career is done.

Speaker 1 (01:00:45):
We'll wrap up on that threat from Jake.

Speaker 3 (01:00:48):
I'm coming for you all.

Speaker 1 (01:00:50):
So those are our breakout candidates in the middle of
the late rounds. A lot of good names, a lot
of agreement, arguably too much agreement on this show, but
I thought you guys made really great picks, so hard
to hard to you know, push back on any of them.
So hopefully go get these guys. There's two draft weekends left.
Go draft these players. Enjoy the next couple of weeks.
Thanks everybody for tuning in for Jake and Debro. I'm
Ryan Warmley. We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening

(01:01:13):
to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love
the show, the best free way to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasypros
dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram,
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FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)

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