FantasyPros - Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 16 (Ep. 1903) - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. I'm
Ryan Warmley, joined as I am every Tuesday by Andrew Rickson.
We are talking predictions for Week sixteen. It is the
semi finals of the Fantasy playoffs. Ericson how many leagues
are we still alive in handful?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
The one that I care about the most, I did
move on because I had the Trevor Lawrence Travis UTN
stack that just went absolutely nuclear.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
So I'm really happy about that.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
But as I talked about last week, I had a
lot of six seeded teams and some of them didn't
stand a chance. I got destroyed in a couple spots
where it didn't matter who I played, it had no
shot of advancing. So again, when you have a handful teams,
you're always gonna lose ones every single week as we
trudge on through the playoff rounds. But as long as
you have a couple live bullets, give you a good sweat.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Shouts to my buddy Body, who I've been playing fantasy
with for a very, very long time. It's probably the
person outside of my coworkers that I talked Fantasy football
with the most often. He had Trevor Lawrence and Kyle
Pitts on a team and also Josh Allen. It's a
super flex league and had to buy this week, so
it was totally wasted. Didn't even get to count for anything.

(01:10):
So this team's obviously good. He's advancing, but what a
waste of too, just like career games that we're probably
never going to see again, at least on that level. Yeah,
I have of my fourteen leagues, I'm still alive in
eight of them. But this has happened in the last
two years where I've gotten like eight or nine teams

(01:30):
to the semifinals and then I've gotten absolutely destroyed, just
like I think across the last two years, I've made
like one finals and out of like sixteen teams in
the semifinals across those two years. So it's Week sixteen
has obliterated me the last couple of years.

Speaker 4 (01:46):
Hoping that won't be the case yet again, We'll see
what happens this week.

Speaker 1 (01:50):
We'll try to help out everybody else you know, trying
to advance in their own leagues. Here with our predictions
for the week. Quick recap. We both went won a
four last week. We were above five hundred in our
first week of doing this feeling good. We're gonna crush
us all year, and we both one of four. I
will say both of the ones we hit we're our
hard rock best bet of the week it was, are

(02:11):
number one.

Speaker 4 (02:12):
We're the ones that we eat shit.

Speaker 1 (02:14):
We just did really badly the rest of it, so
we're going to try and bounce back here. Overall records
for both of us are four and six.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
So if you're listening to the show, just skip to
the last predictions because those are the only ones that
are stone cold locks to actually happen.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Well, we did justify in the first week. It was
you know this, this is the week where we took
a step back. It's okay, We're gonna bounce back here.
By the way, I just start some housekeeping for everybody.
We're not doing the show next week. The show is
not ending. We are going to be back for week
eighteen and actually back for the playoffs. So we've done
this last couple of years. But next week, just with
all the shows we are trying to get out during

(02:48):
Christmas week and not trying to put too much on
the production side of things, we are not doing this
show next week. It's just a one week Kyats. We
will be back for week eighteen, and because the nature
of the show is predictions and kind of some prop
prop bets too, it will continue into the playoffs as well.

Speaker 4 (03:02):
So that's the housekeeping there.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
I'm okay not talking about this Monday night football game, Ericson,
Is there anything you want to talk about from this game?
I mean, it was for a game that scored forty
three points, it was remarkably unhelpful for fantasy managers and
like kind of a boring game to watch.

Speaker 4 (03:21):
You know.

Speaker 1 (03:22):
Hayward and John new Smith were the two rushing touchdowns
for the Steelers, right, DK did have fifty five yards
in a touchdown, which was helpful. Mvs said the other
touchdown for Pittsburgh and then the Dolphins side, I mean
TWOA just continues to look absolutely dreadful.

Speaker 4 (03:35):
Waller had two touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
But basically unless you have a DK metcalf for Darren Waller,
you probably were pretty unhappy coming out of this game.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
I think if anything, it just kind of sets the
stage up for next week with these teams and the
matchups that they're playing. You have the Steelers facing the
Detroit Lions, so that's a matchup where you're looking at Okay,
this could be high scoring you feel good about. Do
you get a CAF in that matchup. He's kind of
been on a huge the last couple of weeks. Aaron
Rodgers is a streaming quarterback. He was super efficient in
this game. We have twenty seven passing to twenty four

(04:02):
and two touchdowns. Spreading the ball out again, not throwing
four bonkers numbers, but in a good matchup next week,
if you need a quarterback, I think Aaron Rodgers is
kind of in play there. Backfield's kind of a muddy
mess here with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jalen Warren wasn't added
to the injury report late on Monday. It didn't really
seem to influence his usage that much, although he was
much a much more inefficient compared torchanic Gainwell, who also

(04:24):
continues to just be a monster in a passing game.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
For Aaron Rodgers, that's a good point.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
You were not unhappy if you started Gainwell. I said
it was just Metcalf and Waller. Gainwell too. Seven catches
for forty six yards plus eighty on the ground, even
though he didn't get a touchdown.

Speaker 4 (04:38):
That was a good day.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah, he had a good day, and then on the
Waller side, he didn't really do much in the first half.
Basically it was kind of in garbage time when Darren
Waller was just the Steelers are kind of playing off
coverage and he's just absolutely feasting dudes in the red zone,
just turning what Darren Waller does. But you know he
plays next week Cincinnati Bengals, so he's gonna catch touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (04:59):
He's gonna do it. He's going to do.

Speaker 2 (05:00):
Unless Darren Waller gets hurt, it's probably gonna be tight
end one next week. So I didn't put him on
my predictions for a tight end one because I had
to let Waller get through the game first, and full disclosure,
we put the show sheet together before Monday night conclude,
so I didn't want to risk it by putting Darren
Waller in the sheet. But when I'm doing my Week
sixteen rankings for tight ends, Waller's gonna be pretty high
up there because of the matchup against Cincinnati Bengals that

(05:21):
we know that just cannot be stopped unless the quarterback
only tenps twelve passes, which happened with Lamar Jackson last
week when the Ravens Titans bombed against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 3 (05:29):
I think that this game is gonna be high scoring.

Speaker 2 (05:31):
This game is going to be played in Miami, so
you're not dealing with two outdoors in the cold because
it's a home game for them. And I think Darren
Waller again, the usage has been really strong this year,
especially in the red zone. The guy's been a touchdown machine.
So he's definitely going to be on the tight end
radar for Week sixteen in the semifinals.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
Let's stump into our predictions for the week. He you're
going five to one roughly in order we kind of
move it around. If we want to talk about like
two teams, we'll put them together if they're in the
same game, just to kind of make it flow a
little more naturally. The real one is, like the number
one prediction is the hard rock best bet of the week.
We'll get to that at the end of the show.
The rest the order is kind of, you know, we

(06:09):
move it around a bit here, but roughly going five
to one. Eric, say, kick us off with your number
five prediction.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
She's trying to lose to the Titans this week. YEP,
playing on the road in Nashville, I think that this
is just a flat spot for Kansas City. They just
got knocked out of the playoffs for the first time
in the Mahomes era. Mahomes is out for the rest
of the season, hopefully going to return to the start
of next year, but acl injury, we don't exactly know
the extent of how complicated injury it's going to be.

(06:36):
I just think that this Chiefs team is going to
be really deflated, Like what are they playing for again?

Speaker 3 (06:41):
Pride?

Speaker 2 (06:41):
Like that's the biggest thing here. And it's still Andy
Reid one of the best head coaches in the NFL
and NFL history, and I think that in most cases
he's going be able to get his guys up for
this game. But like the way that Travis Kelsey's talked
about this year, kind of sounding more defeated than inspired
in any capacity. He's mealy chairs swift this summer, Like, dude,
you got three games left that you can't make the player, Like,
what's the point here for the Chiefs? Their offensive line

(07:02):
is such a mess. And Jeffery Simmons, the Titans defensive tackle,
the dude has been on a heater the last couple
of weeks. He's played like a man possessed, like he's
ricking havoc on the interior of offensive lines, and I
think that's a big problem for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Mahomes last week was pressured on nearly fifty percent of
his dropbacks against the Chargers, second highest pressure rate of

(07:22):
the season. I know that Minshew can make plays with
his legs, but I think that this game is gonna
be much closer than the spread would suggest. I think
the Chiefs are just kind of getting the benefit of
the doubt. Oh well, it's the Chiefs and the Titans
have been terrible all year, so we're gonna just get
make the Chiefs the favorites in this game. I have
major concerns about them getting knocked out here again, kind
of being hit while they're already down. So I think
that the Chiefs could lose outright to the Titans, and

(07:45):
as a result, I think Tony Pollard could kind of
have another solid game like top twenty four running back
two straight weeks. I think this is gonna be the
third week in a row he can be a top
twenty four guy. I'm glad that we talked about him
on the Ranking Show last weekcause I was kind of, man,
this feels like a sucker's play going after Tony Pollard
a monster game against the Browns and what do you do?
He had another really productive game twenty touches per game.

(08:05):
Over the last two weeks, He's gone over his rushing
art prop in three straight games. So I like Tony
Pollard to play pretty productively in this game here against
the Chiefs and Ites a tough defense, but last three
games that they've given up allowed over fifty eight rushing
yards to that lead running back. So Tony Pollard's rushing
arts prop it's at fifty one and a half yards
for this week. I think he's going over here. And

(08:25):
one other element to note about Tony Pollard, what is
he playing for contract incentives? Yes, guys, don't forget about
contract incentive sison here. If he hits one and ten
yards and seven touchdowns, he gets a fat bonus. So
he is within striking distance of those numbers after the
last couple of weeks. So I think that's going to

(08:46):
continue to feed Tony Pollard the rock because we haven't
really seen a split with Tajy Spears in the last
couple of games.

Speaker 4 (08:52):
So I find this one really interesting.

Speaker 1 (08:54):
I actually I agree with your Tony Pollard's side more
than the Chiefs losing side, And I would be more
on board with the idea of the Chiefs losing if
it was any team other than the Titans that is,
like I just can't quite get the.

Speaker 4 (09:09):
Raiders.

Speaker 1 (09:11):
Yeah, yeah, that'd be the one team that I'd be
more confident about the Chiefs winning. But like I do
like the Pollard call, especially because we've talked about this
a lot on this show. Like run defense is often
effort driven, it would not surprise anybody to see the
effort be deflated here. On the one hand, part of
me says, the Chiefs have been so good for so

(09:34):
long that they almost don't know any other way other
than to take a game seriously. But the other part
of me is, like, I think it will be maybe
even a bit of a relief to kind of finally
not have.

Speaker 4 (09:46):
To take a game seriously.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
Like they've played so much extra football just from the
in January alone, over the last several years, they basically
played an extra like season over anybody else in the
Mahomes era. And I think a lot of these guys
are probably tired. I'm not saying this is like why
they didn't make the playoffs or anything like. It's not
even a referendum on how they are as the quality

(10:07):
of a team. But I just think it's like it
is probably a mental and physical burden to always be
striving for this historic greatness, to always be playing extra
football late into the year, and I think it might
be like very easy for them to flip that switch
and take the foot off the gas a little bit here.
Having said that, my number five prediction is that the

(10:31):
Chiefs offense is actually okay without Patrick Mahomes, at least.

Speaker 4 (10:35):
For this week.

Speaker 1 (10:36):
And part of that is because I do think we
are likely at one of these next three games we're
getting a really fun Gardner Minshew game. I'm telling you
right now we might not be the best at predicting
when it happens. We are getting a great Gardner Minshew game,
or at least a very fun Gardner Minshew game in
one of these next three games. And I think there's
a chance it could happen this week because everybody is
burying the Chiefs. Everybody is just like throwing dirt on

(10:59):
the grave, you know. There we had some fun like
kind of it was kind of weird celebrating that they
were out of the playoffs because it was coupled with
this really unfortunate injury that nobody's happy to see. But
injury aside, it is very refreshing that the Chiefs are
not going to be in the playoffs. It was very
much like a ding Dong the Witch's Dead type of
feeling on Twitter when that was official. And I think

(11:21):
that it is going to be like a surprise bounce
back from the Chiefs offense where it's like no, no, no,
like we are still okay, we are still the Kansas
City Chiefs. We have a sense of pride. And again,
this is a really bad Titans team. I know Simmons
has been playing really well as of late, but by
and large, this is not a good team. Gardner mean,
she's a pretty good backup. So I think the offense

(11:41):
is going to actually be okay without my homes. I
don't think it's going to fall apart for this week
at least, and I'm going with Travis kelce anytime touchdown.
I think it's extraordinarily likely. These are the last three
games of Travis Kelcey's career, so I wouldn't be surprised
if the Chiefs are like, hey, we're not playing for anything,
let's just pepper our guy and get him, you know,
whatever final stats, we can put the cap run his
Hall of Fame career knowing that this is how it

(12:04):
ends and we're not playing for anything.

Speaker 4 (12:06):
So Kelsey anytime touchdown is my prop here.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
I agree with you that I don't think that the
offense really falls off. I shouldn't say really falls off. Again,
you're losing Patch Mahomes. There is a downgrade that you
have to account for, especially based on the environmental factors
he was playing with. Behind the offensive line's been a
mess all season. But the thing is when you see
these backup quarterbacks come into play, are they into hand
the ball off to the running back or they're just

(12:30):
gonna throw the ball fifty times? Because we've seen that
with Jacoby Brissett, where the guy just throws so much
that it doesn't matter who they're paying. He's matchup proof
because when you drop back fifty times, you're going to
accumulate fantasy points. And that's the thing with the Chiefs offensively,
with Andy Reid, they've one of the highest, if not
the highest pass rate over expectation and I would not
expect that to change, Like, what's the point of, oh yeah,
we got a feed Kareem Hunt like that?

Speaker 3 (12:51):
That makes no sense to me. At least get Garter Minshew.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
I mean he likes to I mean he's a fun quarterback,
like you said, So go back there sling it. Get
Rushie Rice involved, get Travis Kelly involved. So I agree
with you. I think that I would probabctually lean towards
the over in this game. It's really really low thirty
seven a half points because obviously it's the tight ends
like a quarterback. But I could see pass where Again,
I like Pollard to kind of have a productive game here.
If the Chiefs defense lays down in any capacity, just

(13:15):
like if the things open up to like a big lead,
like go up to nothing with a turnover or something
like that, you could see that kind of deflating for
the Chiefs. It's like, oh, man, like, are we really
want to are we going to rally back now without
our leader?

Speaker 3 (13:25):
And why? Like what's the point. We're not going to
make the playoffs anyway.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
So I would agree with you that I think that
maybe we do get a little bit more points here
than the total suppressed total would suggest.

Speaker 1 (13:36):
I think the over is a great call, And like
from a fantasy perspective, on the chief side of things,
like I'm not going to be sitting Travis Kelcey or
was she Rice just because they're going from Mahomes to
Gardner Minshew, and I probably wasn't starting anybody else anyway,
Like Hunt is the one that you know, you would,
you know, maybe go a little.

Speaker 4 (13:54):
Bit back and forth on.

Speaker 1 (13:57):
But like in terms of the passing game itself, like
I'm still starting Kelsey and Rice and I'm not starting
Worthy or Hollywood or anybody else. So like, to me,
the passing game side of things from the fantasy perspective
doesn't change that much Hunts.

Speaker 4 (14:09):
He's ranked RB thirty six in ECR for this week.

Speaker 1 (14:12):
Like it's kind of just like if you have a
you know, if you're weak at running back in a
deep league, start him and I'm okay with it.

Speaker 4 (14:18):
If not, try and get away from him.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
I think that's just like he's kind of on that
borderline area anyway.

Speaker 4 (14:23):
At least That's how I see it.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
But I agree, I like the over in this game too,
And I lost the Homes in a league, I'm still
alive and in a super Flex league, and I'm like,
there's not really any quarterbacks available. I'll probably just like
spend the rest of my fab on Gardner Minshew and
see what he does for me. Like, like, I think
that's better than oh, you can just start another running
back in that spot. Like I'd rather start Gardner Minshew
in the super Flex than you know, the thirtieth ranked

(14:46):
running back or whoever.

Speaker 2 (14:47):
It is.

Speaker 1 (14:48):
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Speaker 4 (15:03):
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and Android ericson what is your number four prediction?

Speaker 2 (15:10):
Going to Carolina and Tampa Bay the Carolina this NNSC South?
Does anybody want to win this division? Because somebody has
to win it and it's it's too bad the Saints
lost too many games to start the year because they
could have been live here to kind of make a
run late in the year, but they just they tease
the Spencer Routlet thing for too long. It took on
too many losses. So it's still kind of a two
man race between the Buccaneers and the Panthers. But they're

(15:33):
playing each other twice over the next three weeks, and
I think we're gonna see scoring in this game. That's
kind of been the classic game strip for these Buccaneers games.
That's why I think Tetro McMillan is going to balance
back here. He's been down the last three weeks. He's
actually been under his receiving yards prop in three straight games.
But I think it's gonna be a top twenty guy
this week. In Week sixteen against the Buccaneers. Now, last

(15:53):
week again disappointing. He was actually his season low in
yardage for the entire season, but there were a couple
opportunities for him to make more plays. He had a
twelve yard catch that was overturned. It was ruled incomplete
after it was ruled a catch on the field. He'llly
finished with two catches for twenty five yards on four targets,
but no other Panthers wide receiver saw more than four targets,
so he still kind of was that target leader. It's

(16:14):
not like Jalen Coker was necessarily running circles around him. Again,
had more yards, but still only drew four targets, and
him and Young kind of missed on a potential touchdown,
Like it was a throw where maybe it wasn't the
perfect throw and maybe team that could have done a
better job of kind of like squeezing it, but he
had an opportunity to score in that game, we wouldn't
be nearly as disappointed. So I still think the usage
has been overall pretty strong, even though it's been kind

(16:36):
of down in the last couple of weeks. But part
of that is because the Carolina Panthers have had a
negative fourteen percent passway over expectation, so they've just been like, Okay,
we're gonna run the ball a million times against these
all these matchups, and that's just not how you beat
the Bucks.

Speaker 3 (16:49):
The Bucks do everything in their.

Speaker 2 (16:50):
Power to no, we're gonna stop the run, and you
have to throw it on us like Todd Bowles invites
a ton of passing volume. You look at last season
when Bryce Young played the Buccaneers, he had a game
with forty six pass teps, twenty eight pass atteps the
pass right over expectation in those games with Dave Canalis
calling the plays plus six percent and plus fifteen percent.
So I just think that we're going to see more

(17:11):
passing volume in general from the Panthers offense against Tampa Bay,
and I think that means good things for Tetro McMillan.
So he was wide receiver one I think a month
ago against the Atlanta Falcons and a high scoring affair.
I don't want to bench that upside. So I know
that he's been disappointing, but I think that you should
still be starting him as a wide receiver two this
week because if this game gets kind of crazy and

(17:32):
goes back and forth, you could see a really ceiling
spike performance from Teammac like we saw a couple weeks ago.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
Yeah, that was Week eleven, that wide receiver one finish
against Falcons. The other games in the last six games though,
or wide receiver forty nine thirty three twenty seven to
twenty three seventy three. Even going back further, it's wide
receiver fourteen fifty seven twelve twenty eight thirty six forty five.
I mean that's obviously getting to the beginning of the
season again going back that far, but the real upside

(18:02):
has only kind of shown itself once.

Speaker 4 (18:06):
In that Falcons game. I don't disagree with the call.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
I find it interesting that he's ranked wide receiver sixteen
in ECR. It's kind of similar to me what we've
been looking at the last few weeks with a Mechabuka
and Justin Jefferson, where the production has not been there
for multiple weeks in a row, and yet they were
still getting comfortably ranked inside that top fifteen to twenty.

Speaker 4 (18:28):
They are now not.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
You know, rankers have finally moved those two down, but
it took a while to react to that. Is Timac
kind of in that he hasn't been as bad as
those guys, right, Like, he's been playable some of those numbers.
I said, we're still in the twenties, but he hasn't
been in the teams really outside of that one game
across the last you know, six or seven weeks, and

(18:50):
yet he's wide receiver sixteen in ECR. Does that feel
appropriate to you as a ranking or do you think
it's kind of similar to Ibuka and Jefferson where eventually
maybe that will come down.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
I think that if he wasn't playing the Buccaneers, he
would have already came down, right, Like that's why we
were holding onto Jefferson last week, where it's like, yes,
it's been so bad, but he's there facing Dallas, right,
he has.

Speaker 3 (19:10):
The number one matchup.

Speaker 4 (19:11):
You how did that work out?

Speaker 3 (19:13):
Just ask Jalen Naylor. He was great. Again.

Speaker 2 (19:18):
We'll get into Jefferson a little bit later because I
know you have a prediction on him, But I think
that's really telling about the ranking is he's facing the Buccaneers.

Speaker 3 (19:25):
You could see a path where That's kind of how
I'm trying to sell it.

Speaker 2 (19:28):
I'm not selling here saying oh, well, he's been over
his receiving arts prop again it's listed here at fifty
nine and a half yards.

Speaker 3 (19:33):
I mean, he's been underose in three straight games.

Speaker 2 (19:35):
Like there's nothing that he's put on the field the
last couple of weeks that says, oh, this is gonna
happen for him. But I'm just adding the context of
the Panthers have been extremely run heavy over the last
three games, and the last time they weren't, which was
against the Falcons, that's when we saw Tetro McMillan go
as a wide receiver one on the weekend. I remember
looking at that matchum and thinking, man te Meck doesn't
have a ceiling, like he had a bench. This guy

(19:55):
this week he doesn't have a ceiling and the last
time I did again and then he had a monster game.
So you're shooting for ceiling in the playoff weeks, you
have to find ways for Okay, can this guy break
the slate? Can he be a thirty point type of player?
And at least Team Beck has shown one time this year, Hey,
I can do that and be that guy. So if
this game forces into past heavy game script for Bryce Young,

(20:17):
team Max the guy in this offense, he's their best
wide receiver, so I would be leaning into that, which
is why I agree with the ranking here as a
top twenty guy, I don't know where I'll settle on him,
but I assume it'll probably be around ECR Wide Receiver sixteen.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
Speaking of breaking the slate, my prediction here is about
tight ends Cardinals Falcons. I'm going to say that it
gives us two top five tight ends. If this was
a bold prediction segment, I would say it gives us
tight end one and tight End two for the second
straight week coming from these two.

Speaker 4 (20:43):
Teams, Kyle Pitts and Trey McBride.

Speaker 1 (20:46):
This is not a bold prediction, so I'll give myself
a little bit of leeway here, but I am saying
both of these guys get inside the top five again. Obviously,
like Kyle Pitts was, like I would say, the story
of the week, but then we have like Trevor Lauritznia
and like a lot of players kind of big the
story of the week, but he certainly was the early
story of the week. Pitts, you know, having just a
career best game. He had one hundred yards and two

(21:07):
touchdowns in the first half. He ended up with one
hundred and sixty six I think it was, and three
touchdowns over the course of the game, eleven catches on
twelve targets, forty point one Fantasy points in half PPR scoring.
Just like an awesome game. And by the way, his
third straight good game. He didn't have touchdowns in the

(21:27):
previous two, but he had seven catches for eighty two
yards in week thirteen he had six catches for ninety yards,
and week fourteen, and then he had this explosion here
in week fifteen. So it's three straight weeks inside the
top seven at the position it's been a long time coming, right,
hoping for this Kyle Pitts breakout. We're throwing he's still
twenty five years old, Like at this age Travis Kelcey

(21:48):
had barely even broken out yet, or maybe he haven't
hadn't done it yet because he was pretty older when
he did. I didn't actually go back and look that up,
but as I recall, he was in the second half
of his twenties when he really broke out. Like, I'm
not saying Kyle Pitts is gonna come Travis Kelcey, but
it at this position, it would be totally not unheard
of for a guy to legitimately take a step forward
at this stage in his career. So he's you know,

(22:10):
obviously ranked aggressor this week, and Trey McBride has just
been like, maybe this is like the best pick you
could have made in terms of relative to position. Like
the advantage he's giving you over other tight ends this
year since Jacoby Brissett took over is obscene, and he
just of course continued it this week. I mean, look,
since the bye week, I'll go back even further. Since
week six, he has got tight end two, three, six, one, one, three, two,

(22:34):
thirteen and two, so the thirteen is the one outlier.
Besides that, his worst finish is tight end six. So
he's just been absolutely you know, insane rightfully ranked as
tight end one this week. So McBride and Bowers, I'm saying,
are both inside the top five again, I know the
nature of the position.

Speaker 4 (22:52):
Is that not bad? I'm sorry, I'm sorry.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
Yes, I was there back to back in ECR and
I was reading Bowers his name as I said that
McBride and pitt Thank you for correcting me. McBride and
Pitts are gonna be top five again here Bowers. I
will him later to another tease for the shows. But yeah, yeah,
what do you I mean? Obviously McBride is not much
of a prediction. I'm you know, I'm just including him
to make it more, you know, more of a prediction

(23:17):
that they both have to get there, and since they're
facing each other in this game, But what do you
think about Pitts coming into this one off of his
insane Week fifteen?

Speaker 2 (23:24):
Yeah, so I will start with McBride. I'm gonna make
a bull prediction because we're not gonna be on the
show for next week, Week seventeen, Train McBride has a
better game than Kyle Pits did last week because he's
facing the Bengals. So okay, I talked about Train McBride
at nauseum in my Beyond the Waiver Wire column early
on in the year, Whereas when I was looking at
the schedule, Mike, he plays the Bengals in week seventeen,

(23:44):
you might not win your fantasy matchup in the Championship
if you don't have on your team like that. He
might just be the the skeleton key where he puts
up fifty points and it doesn't matter who else you
have on your team, you just win because you have
Train McBride against the Bengals. So that'll be my bold
prediction is that Kyle Pits as this record breaking tight
end performance that lasts for two weeks and then Trey
McBride breaks it two weeks later gets the Megals. So classic,

(24:10):
I want to pose a question to you, So I'm
gonna lay out some facts and I want to get
your response to it, because.

Speaker 1 (24:15):
Can I just can I as quickly before we move
off of McBride, ericson point out that I believe on
this show about this time last year, you predicted three
touchdowns from Trey McBride against the Panthers, and then.

Speaker 4 (24:28):
He got He had like a terrible game.

Speaker 1 (24:30):
So I just want to point out that your your
track record with Trey McBride historic performances hasn't quite been
there yet.

Speaker 4 (24:38):
I'm just throwing it out there.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
I won't be able to live with myself if he
gets hurt in that game. Oh my god, just be
absolutely terrible. So back to Kyle Pitts.

Speaker 2 (24:48):
There's a chance Drake London comes back this week, so
I think that it's really easy for us to just
completely forget about that and and not really pay attention to. Okay, well,
Drake Len's coming out like no, but Pitts has been
so good, like if it's so consistent, he's been the
guy with Kirk Cousins. But if you look at the
numbers and the facts, like this matters potentially a lot.

(25:10):
So we haven't seen the Pitts splits with London and
Kirk Cousins this season. They just haven't aligned up. Whenever
Kirk Cousins has started, Drake Lunn has been out of
the lineup. But with London healthy, with Michael Pennox at
the quarterback position. Pitts was averaging six point six Fantasy
points per game and half PPR, So again, just mediocre
tight end numbers last year with Kirk Cousins and Drake

(25:32):
London both in the lineup. Again, this is a pretty
big sample size, like the whole season seven points per game,
Like this is nowhere near the production end. To your point,
the last three games or Kyle Pitts have been really good.
Who hasn't played the last three weeks wide receiver Drake London?
And I think that what Raheem Morris And this is
from the Coach Speak Index discords a shout out to
the Coach Speak Index. This was something that Raheem Morris

(25:54):
talked about about Kyle Pitts's performance on Thursday night. He
got the targets at Drake London would have gone, and
he got the targets he would normally get, so like
he was accounting for Okay, like we basically just double
this production because our number one wide receiver wasn't playing
in the game, so we need to I think, and
again this is really hard for me because I'm not

(26:14):
sure this is really actionable. Right, You get a bench
Kyle Pitts, Like, no, I don't really see a scenario
where you would have the luxury of doing it. But
I do feel like we could get the rug kind
of pulled out underneath us, like we did with Michael
Wilson a couple of weeks ago, when Marvin Harrison Junior
came back. He came back for one game, Michael Wolson
just went disappeared, and then Marvin Harrison missed the next

(26:35):
week and Michael Wolson went back to seeing like twenty
targets in the game. So that's just something that I
wanted to bring up again. I'm not so sure how
actionable it is because it's still a good matchup. They're
facing Arizona Cardinals again. Like, I don't think he's gonna
see as many targets as Ray Lund if London plays,
but I could it's very possible that we do see
a much suppressed performance from Pits. And this is actually

(26:56):
even funny too. You look at last year he faced
the Buccaneer. He had a really good game last year
at Tampa Bay. Four catches, ninety one yards, two touchdowns.
You know he did the next week or he had
one catch for eleven yards, he.

Speaker 4 (27:09):
Does the face of Tampa Bay like so so so.

Speaker 2 (27:12):
Again, I lay all that out, it's all factual. Does
it matter, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (27:18):
I really don't.

Speaker 2 (27:18):
Maybe they'll just make me rank him a little bit
lower than ECR, but to take him out of your lineup,
I don't know if you have a better alternative.

Speaker 4 (27:24):
I think it's a really good point.

Speaker 1 (27:26):
I am operating as if London will not be back
in that and that if he is back, he will
not be at one hundred percent okay, And now if
he is back and he is back enough to be
like basically playing at his usual level, then yes, I
do think this becomes a lot trickier for me to
hit this prediction. I like part of me is like,

(27:47):
the Falcons are not in the playoffs, why would they
rush back like their superstar receiver. But I guess on
the other hand, that means if he is back, you
would assume that he really is ready to be back,
because there's no need to rush him. So I don't
know that will be an interesting thing to pay attention.
I'm not going to change your prediction, obviously, but I
think it's a really fair point to bring up the
other part of me though is and I know Michael

(28:09):
Wilson is a point against this because it literally just
worked against what I'm about to say. But part of
me is like, isn't the toothpastekind of.

Speaker 4 (28:15):
Out of the bottle here?

Speaker 1 (28:17):
Like, how are you gonna not give Kyle Pitts ten
targets you gotta get because you.

Speaker 3 (28:22):
Gotta get Drake London twelve targets?

Speaker 1 (28:24):
That's I don't don't throw it any like, literally, if
Kirk Cousins throws thirty six passes, thirty four of them
should go to either Drake London, Bijon Robinson or Kyle Pits,
Like there's just nobody else should touch the ball in
the game.

Speaker 4 (28:39):
All Right, it's very a bottlem. Let's go to a
prediction number three here? What do you got?

Speaker 3 (28:43):
Yeah, I didn't mean to terrain on your Kyle Pits parade.

Speaker 4 (28:45):
No, no, no, no, that's show.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
It's gouldn't be the first time that he let us down.

Speaker 1 (28:50):
Oh my, I mean, is there is there any player
that's more you know, Charlie Brown trying to kick the
football than Kyle Pitts. I mean this, You're not being
lucy here, You're just like explaining to me what Lucy does, Like,
I get that the rug could be pulled out for
under this.

Speaker 2 (29:04):
Thing, Yeah, exactly, So my prediction three here there will
be no rug pulling here. This is a stone cold lock.
Omaron Hampton RB one, Sison, Mikenon Walker rby one, Sison
first into flames last week in all the worst ways,
But I feel much better about this one for Omary
and Hampton facing the Dallas Cowboys. Hampton was in his

(29:24):
second game back from injury reserve last week. Still it
was Videll that was kind of dominating the snap sixty
four percent to Hampton's thirty six percent, But Hampton's still
seeing a lot of volume despite playing on a limited
snap share led the way with fifteen carries for sixty
one yards. He had a long twenty six yard first.
He's had a couple tough matchups since coming back from
injured reserve. And also the thing that I kind of

(29:46):
wanted to point out about his usage was he's playing
more than third downs in the second week back, and
he was also seeing more of the red zone touches
for the second straight game. So we're starting to see
Hampton eat into Widell's high value touches. In the Chargers backfield.
It's his third game back. I'm expecting to see even
more volume against the Dallas Cowboys, who yes much improved

(30:08):
run defense since they got Quinn Williams. Quinn Williams had
a head injury in the last game against the Minnesota Vikings.
There's a chance that he might not play in this game.
And I think that if they take him out of
that interior. You see the Dallas Cowboys defense from the
beginning of the season that was getting destroyed by opposing
running backs. So I think that Hampton, you're thinking about

(30:28):
him in your line like man like. He really hasn't
popped since coming back. He's still splitting touches with Widell.
So I could see people kind of being down on Hampton,
but I really think this is a really good spot
for him. Still fifteen plus touches and back to back games,
and in the last two games, the Chargers with these
two running backs have leaned more on their run game

(30:49):
because of all the injuries on the offensive line that
can't pass protect Justin Herbert, and just Herbert's playing with
a broken hand, So how.

Speaker 3 (30:54):
Do you protect your quarterback? Keep him upright?

Speaker 1 (30:56):
Again?

Speaker 2 (30:56):
The Chargers want to make a playoff run here like
they are in contention, but they can't do it if
Herbert gets it hurt. The Chargers have a negative nine
pass rate over expectation the last two weeks weeks one
through thirteen, it was plus four percent, So they are
trying to run the ball in neutral game scripts and
that has to do a lot with Omar and Hampton
coming back to the lineup. So his rushing prop this
week forty seven and a half yards, I thought was

(31:19):
preposterously low. He's been over this in five of seven
games this season, including the last two weeks since he
came back from injured reserves. So this is one that
I like the most that we've talked about so far.

Speaker 4 (31:31):
I really like it too.

Speaker 1 (31:32):
I when you first put this into the sheets, I
was like, Okay, that's not like that much going out
on a limb here. And then I went to ECR
and he's RB twenty three, and I found that to
be really surprisingly low. I don't know that I would
call it preposterously low because there are, you know, a
lot of good running backs. You know, obviously there's no
buys anymore. You know, there's there's good running backs available.

(31:54):
So I'm not saying he should be ranked inside the
top twelve, but I was expecting him to be ranked
in in you know, like the team. Like I thought
he was gonna be inside the top twenty. You know,
for example, he's one spot behind Aaron Jones. I would
so much rather start on Maryon Hampton than Aaron Jones
this week. Jones, I know, is getting the giants, but
like I, I just think I think Hampton is primed
to have a very good week. And You're right, Quentin

(32:14):
Williams getting banged up is a huge difference maker for
the Dallas defense, and I really agree.

Speaker 4 (32:22):
Like I would love to.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
Argue this one with you and ran on your parade,
but I can't because I think it's a good call.
And I was surprised that he was ranked as Low's
e as I think it's this is one I totally
agree with.

Speaker 4 (32:35):
Yeah, I don't really have anything else saying him, so
I'll go to my number three predictions.

Speaker 3 (32:38):
Here speachless, I did my job, Let's go.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
I wouldn't say speech less as much as like you said,
everything I had this I would have had to say
justin Jefferson, I am predicting here that this is the
Justin Jefferson game. We finally get him back. I'm calling
it top fifteen ish. I think we'll know it when
we see it, right, Like, Justin Jefferson is back, you

(33:01):
know in the fold here as a as a great
fantasy option, a very startable guy, which he clearly.

Speaker 4 (33:07):
Has not been. For weeks on end, he's ranked inside
the top twenty four.

Speaker 1 (33:11):
Still he's wide receiver twenty three, but that obviously does
not align with the last I mean the last three
weeks alone wide receiver ninety five, eighty one, and seventy seven.
His best game of the last three he had two
catches for twenty two yards that like, and he did
get eight targets this last week. It felt like JJ
McCarthy was really trying to force it to him at
times and they just weren't connecting. JJ made some really

(33:34):
accurate throws in that game, and none of them were
to Justin Jefferson. And then the one that was, he
zipped it in there and it bounced off Jefferson's hands.

Speaker 4 (33:41):
I mean it was just really they.

Speaker 2 (33:43):
Had another touch and that was called back because of penalty,
so like it couldn't catch any breaks.

Speaker 1 (33:48):
It was just crazy how much was sacked against them.
I think they're going to go into this week. I
mean they like they talked about it on that Sunday
night broadcast. Chris collins Orth was saying that, you know,
Kevin O'Connell talked about, like one of our goals here
is to get Justin Jefferson one thousand yards, like like
like now that our season is over from the playoffs,
like the first goal, the first several goals is figure

(34:10):
out what you have with JJ McCarthy. But right after
that is Justin Jefferson is the best you know, in
their opinion, the best player in football.

Speaker 4 (34:16):
Basically get him his thousand yards.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
Don't let this weird quarterback season kind of end to
that streak of his. And and I just think that,
like this is going to be a priority for them.
I think it's going to be a priority for JJ
just not even thinking about Justin Jefferson's stats, but just
in thinking about, like, hey, I'm the quarterback. I need
to get the ball to the best player. Like they're
going to work on it. And if a couple of

(34:40):
those things go right. On Sunday, this was a two
touchdown game. And I'm not saying that we're definitely going
to get multiple touchdowns, you know, against the Giants this week.
But if McCarthy continues to look a little bit better
and he finally gets closer to being on the same page,
Like they're not even reading the same book right now,
but if they can get on the same page, then like,

(35:01):
I don't see any reason why we couldn't get a
one hundred and ten yards, one or two touchdown type
of game from Jefferson. So the prop here obviously is
just jeff Jefferson anytime touchdown. I think they finally get
it done in the red zone this week.

Speaker 2 (35:15):
Look, eventually, he's gonna have to have one of these
big games if he's continuing to see all the high
value targets that he's seeing in this offense, like that
has never been the issue. It's he's not seeing enough volumes.
He's seeing all the volume you could ask for, and
he's seeing air yards, he's seeing red zone targets like
he pointed out they were. It was comical how unlucky
Jefferson was in the end zone against Dallas Cowboys where
he just couldn't score. And it's weird how these things

(35:37):
work where and it usually happens this way where once
everyone gets knocked out of the playoffs that had Jefferson
on their team last week, this is the week that
he goes.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
Off when you're playing in your consolation bracket.

Speaker 2 (35:46):
So take advantage, take the overs on Jefferson in the
betting market, like win your entry feedback after Jefferson burned
you and crushed you in your season long leagues, I'm
with you here, Jefferson. Anytime touchdown Jefferson over one hundred
receiving yards, which are probably we completely nuked. It's probably
like forty nine and a half receiving arch, just something ridiculous.
And against the New York Giants, we know that they
can get easily torched, especially down the field. So McCarthy

(36:10):
building confidence just as a quarterback in general. After two
good games, yeah, I think we will probably see Jefferson
bounce back, even though nobody really, nobody really wants it
to happen because it's been so bad and he hasn't
helped you win your fantasy league. But again, if you're
still kicking around, I don't think you look at Jefferson
this week and think, oh, I have to bench this
guy because there's just another really good matchup.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
I do have him in one league that I'm still
alive in and like I will be starting him for sure,
like like I'm not, I'm not going to get this
far and then sit him the week where he goes
off Like I just I simply refuse, where are you
ranking him for this week? By the way, why receiver
twenty three in ECR. I know it's early rankings. These
could change, but as of right now, where do you
think you're gonna have him?

Speaker 3 (36:48):
They could probably be in that range.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
Maybe I could move him up inside the twenty, maybe
top twenty. We'll see how things kind of shake out
with some of the other players. But again to your point,
still very much in artible range as a wide receiver too,
so probably in that range I'll have him.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
If you want a chance to win a signed b
Jon Robinson and Drake London mini helmet for free courtesy
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(37:26):
a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching
on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those
notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are
up and to claim your prize. All right, ericson a
couple predictions.

Speaker 4 (37:36):
Left for each of us. What do you have?

Speaker 1 (37:38):
Actually, let me go first for number two because I
want to I want to go a little longer on
your number two, So I'll go first here for prediction
number two, Quinn Shawn Judkins breaks out of his slump
and finishes top twelve against Buffalo. The prop here is
a Judkins anytime touchdown. This is kind of going back
to the well that I did with Trayvon Henderson. You know,
his former college teammate, just faces Buffalo Bill's rush defense

(38:01):
last week. He was my number one prediction for the week.
He was the only one I got right, and I
got him very very right. Judkins is not the same
type of player that Henderson is in my opinion. Obviously
stylistically they're very different as well.

Speaker 4 (38:13):
But I think Judkins has a good game. He has
not been running well.

Speaker 1 (38:17):
I don't know how close you've been looking at his
efficiency Ericson his first four weeks, his first four games
that he actually played, he had a four point eight
yards per carry or higher in three.

Speaker 4 (38:28):
Of those games.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
Since then, he has hit four once it was exactly four.
In every other week he has been three and a
half yards per carry or lower. The last two weeks
he's been under two yards per carry. Obviously, the offense
has not been very good with chuduor Sanders for the
most part. Tennessee obviously was his big game, but some
of these other games have been a struggle, and it

(38:50):
really kind of came to a head last week. Twelve carries,
twenty one yards, no touchdown. He had three receptions for
negative four yards in that game, fifty three on the week.
So he hasn't been totally awful. Like two of the
last four weeks he was inside the top twenty. You know,
there have been moments of okay here, but it's been
a bit of maybe a mini slump is the way

(39:11):
I should phrase it, especially coming off of this really
down game. And I think he bounces back and gets
into the top twelve for just a second time since
Week seven, partially because of this this run defense, partially
because I do think she do or has it in
him to have a better game. Also, she really loves
throwing to Harold Fannin. The Bills are really good at
tight ends. They have been for years. So if Fannon

(39:32):
becomes less of an option, I wouldn't be surprised if
maybe there's like a couple more checkdown options for Judkins
in this one. Just get him a couple extra carries,
help out in PPR scoring. So yeah, Judkins breaks out
of his slump. Here is my prediction.

Speaker 4 (39:44):
What do you think?

Speaker 2 (39:46):
I really like that angle about the tight end with
the Buffalo Bills and how they kind of erase the
tight ended position. That's something that I always sometimes forget
to do, where it's like I lower up a certain
player in a bad matchup, but then I forget to
boost other players in that same game, because well, who
could be a benefit from this player facing a tough matchup?

Speaker 3 (40:02):
Positionally, who could benefit from that?

Speaker 2 (40:03):
And although it's not like apple or apples to apples
with a running back versus a tight end, Okay, we're
gonna feed Judkins significantly more carries because we can't throw
the ball to Fan nearly as much. And I will
point out too with Judkins, I think a lot of
the really bad yards per Cary. His Browns offensive line
has been like battered with a ton of injuries, Like
they've lost significantly starters the last couple of weeks. I

(40:26):
know why Teller's been out the last couple weeks. They've
alsot one of the their starting center and got hurt
last week. So if they can get some guys back,
even if it's like just even why Teller honestly, like
we've seen him. I mean it was probably a couple
of years ago, but his splits for Nick Chubb when
he was in the lineup for the Browns, like it
was significantly better. So if maybe they can get a
little bit healthier on the offensive line, that would also
be a big boost for Judkins. But the volume is

(40:49):
not the issue, Like he is seeing as many opportunities
as you could hope for sixteen plus are we opportunities
ten of his last twelve games played, so he's gonna
touch the brock at least fifteen times in a matchup
that is great for running backs. I think you can
definitely bounce back after last week. So I do like
this one as well.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
All right, let's see if we can agree on our
next game. Here you called me out Ericson for being
a coward and not picking a prediction from Ravens Patriots
with our two teams facing each other. The reason I didn't,
I will just say for everybody because yours is here,
so we are going to talk about the game. I
had done a Ravens prediction both of the first two
weeks of the show in each of the last two weeks,

(41:28):
and I had done Trayvon Henderson last week, so I
felt like I had really kind of done a lot
with both the Ravens and the Patriots as of late,
and I wanted to mix it up with other teams.
It was not cowardice. It was trying to think of
what's best for the listeners of the show and to
not be too repetitive. But you, of course stepped up
and said, no, it's Worm versus Ericson. We have to

(41:49):
talk about Ravens versus Patriots.

Speaker 4 (41:51):
On Sunday Night Football. What do you have for us?

Speaker 2 (41:54):
Yeah, I mean we're doing this watch party with the
listeners right Sunday Night Football Live. Patriots. Raven Patriots are
gonna win this game, obviously, so that'll be my part
one of my prediction. But I actually like this angle
from the Ravens side with some of these offensive pieces,
So I actually think that the Ravens tight ends are
going to bounce back in a big way against New England.
Isaiah Likely is the guy that I'm kind of circling here.

(42:16):
I think he's going to finish as a top twelve
option in Week sixteen, because last week again everybody was
again at least I can speak for myself if someone
asked me Isaiah Likely or somebody Isaiah Likely like.

Speaker 3 (42:28):
He was the guy that I was telling everybody to
start last week.

Speaker 2 (42:31):
So obviously, very very disappointing that basically didn't show up
at all in the box score against Cincinnati Bengals, a
matchup that he had smashed just a couple weeks prior,
that every Titan had smashed. And I understand you're frustrated,
you don't want to go back to Likely, But the
Ravens threw twelve times last week.

Speaker 4 (42:49):
It was so much weird.

Speaker 2 (42:50):
Game is just so much game script that, I mean,
besides Jay Flowers ripping off a couple big plays in scoring, like,
there was really no chance for any of these receivers
to do anything. So I think that I'm not going
to hold that against Isaiah Likely. He still has more
catches than Mark Andrews in the last three games, nine
to seven, and he's still been a top twelve tight
end in two of the last three games, despite not

(43:12):
having two touchdowns that he should have had that didn't
convert into the end zone. And the thing I want
to point out about the Patriots, and this is something
that I was concerned about with them, just kind of
like from a real life perspective, Like one of their
major flaws as a team is they're terrible in the
red zone. They are the worst red zone defense in
the NFL, thirty second in touchdown rate allowed. And what
are they be giving up in the end zone passing

(43:34):
touchdowns thirty first and passing touchdown rate allowed this season?
Where do we know that Lamar Jackson likes to go
in the end zone in the red zone? It's his
tight ends, it's Mark Andrews, is Ixaiah Likely so aversed
My prop was Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown, But then I
was like, I'm saying, Lamar Jackson throw for one and
a half passing touchdowns. This is something that he had
been basically hitting every single week prior to the season

(43:56):
into his injury, and then he just went on this
cold streak where come back from the injury not throwing
a lot of touchdowns. But last week he threw two
touchdowns on eight completions, So he can be a very
hyper efficient quarterback. That's Lamar's bread and butter, and he
actually did go over it last week, So I think
that continues here. He's gonna throw for over one and
a half passing touchdowns. I think we see points in

(44:17):
this game.

Speaker 3 (44:18):
Again.

Speaker 2 (44:18):
Obviously, I'm going to be rooting for my Patriots to
come out with the win, but I expect this game
to be close, and I expect it to be friendly
for fantasy purposes on both sides in the passing game.
So that is my prediction for Patriots Ravens. Let's say
you were well.

Speaker 1 (44:31):
You said at the beginning of that that you're the
first part of your prediction was the Patriots winning. Does
that mean if the Ravens win but likely's top twelve,
that you are losing this prediction.

Speaker 4 (44:40):
You are officially making the Patriots winning as a part
of it.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
Yes, I'll do that for that battle I'd.

Speaker 4 (44:45):
Love to hear it.

Speaker 1 (44:47):
We should have been our hard Rock best bet of
the week, just like I think the Ravens will win
and I think the Patriots will win. I've tried to
pull up the total here because I hadn't looked it up.

Speaker 4 (44:56):
Okay, it's at forty eight.

Speaker 1 (44:58):
I like the over on that. I think there will
be points in this game. To your point, I think
Lamar has looked the most like Lamar the last two weeks,
basically since like the Buffalo game. Like like, I thought
that these were the and I know they didn't win.
Against the Steelers, it was a very classic Steelers game
where he looked okay, but then you know they were

(45:18):
dumb turnovers and you know Steelers devil magic.

Speaker 4 (45:21):
But but I.

Speaker 1 (45:22):
Thought, I mean, it was a very efficient game because
he didn't need to do much like his throat is
a flowers for the touchdown against the Bengals, I thought
was the best throw he's made, you know, since September.
It just looked the most like Lamar that I think
we've seen since the beginning of the season. Derrick Henry
was very efficient. Now the Bengals defense is bad, but
like I think, I think It's important to remember with

(45:44):
this Patriots team that we went into the year saying
like this is still a very flawed team, that if
Drake May takes a leap, he can kind of drag
some of these players up with him against a very
easy schedule. And that's what's happened. He has dragged these
players up with him because he has taken an MVP
leap forward. But it's come largely against a very easy schedule,

(46:06):
and this defense, while statistically is not bad, has not
faced a lot of quarterbacks the likes of a healthy
Lamar Jackson this season.

Speaker 4 (46:16):
I think, like the.

Speaker 1 (46:17):
Fact that they beat the Bills back in Week four
or five, I think has carried a lot of weight
for us legitimizing the Patriots when the rest of their
great season, and it has been a really good season. Obviously,
I love Drake May, I'm not knocking him, but it's
come against a really poor schedule. The Ravens defense is
played well, They're coming off of a shutout. Lamar Jackson

(46:38):
is playing definitely better, maybe not as usual MVP self,
but definitely better. This is in Baltimore in primetime. I
know the Ravens weren't very good on Thanksgiving, but typically
they are very good at home in primetime games. I
think this is gonna be a high scoring game. Like
Drake may is awesome, I think he can take advantage
of this defense. There's some injury stuff in the defense

(46:59):
to be a woozy might not play. The secondary is
getting kind of banged up. They did get our Darius
Washington back to help Baltimore and the Ravens I think
can run on and throw on this Patriots defense.

Speaker 4 (47:10):
I actually expect them to score a lot.

Speaker 1 (47:12):
So I think this game is going to be played
in the fifties, and I think the Ravens will win.
It's minus two and a half. Some places it's minus three.
Hard rock bet is minus two and a half. I would,
I think, lean towards the Ravens laying the points, unless
if it got to over a field goal, I would
take the Patriots easily. I think I would lay the
points of the Ravens. I don't feel confidently about that.

(47:33):
I do feel confident about the over. I think there
will be points in this game.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
Yeah, that's the best way I've bet it.

Speaker 2 (47:38):
Honestly, it's just fun and that way you don't get
a bad beat to missfield goal at the end of
the game, when it doesn't even come down to the quarterback, right,
because that's kind of how you feel what you bet
on these games. It's which quarterback is going to play
better if both quarterbacks play good overhits Bang Bang.

Speaker 1 (47:52):
Speaking of hard rock bet, today's show is brought to
you by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. So
it's time for our hard rock best Bets of the Week,
presented by hard Rock bet Ericson what is your hard
rock best bet of the week?

Speaker 2 (48:04):
Audrick estimee Saints running back. That's what team he's on,
the New Orleans Saints.

Speaker 3 (48:08):
It's gonna be a black start in Week sixteen.

Speaker 2 (48:13):
I couldn't not put Audrick estime on the show sheet
between your guys the estimates because there's a chance that
he is the RB one for the New Orleans Saints
this week. So this obviously comes with a caveat at
Devin Neil Alvin Kamara don't play in this game for
the New Orleans Saints. Alvin Kamara is still banged up
with this mcl injury. It's the lost season for the Saints.
I really don't think he's gonna come back Devin Neil

(48:33):
got hurt last week, but the hamstring injury didn't play
in the entire second half. Still TVD we haven't gotten
really updates about him. I know that Kellen Moore talked
to the media and he didn't really say anything about
Devin Neil, but he did talk about Audrick Estime and
Evan Hull taking taking advantage of their opportunities in the
Saints backfield. So it was kind of a fifty to
fifty split after Devin Neil got hurt last week. My

(48:57):
Estimate did out touch Evan Hull and also played a
higher percentage of the snaps thirty six percent to thirty
two percent. But the biggest thing with Estimate is that
on that final drive and even late into the game,
they were like peppering him with screen passes. So I
think that they are leaning on him as Hey, we
like this guy in passpro, we trust him and we
trust him to make plays in space. And look, you know,

(49:17):
I am warm. I'm a sucker for Project Estimate. I
think it was a really talented guy coming out of
notreble Lot. I thought I thought that if he hadn't
just totally butchered his forty yard dash time, like he
would have probably been a much higher draft pick, but
somebody gave him really bad advice and said to run
the forty and he just totally butchered it. So that's
why his draft stock plummeted. And again was with Denver
as a rookie. Spent some time on the Eagles practice

(49:39):
squad as well, but bounced around found a home with
Kellen Moore in the Saints backfield that's been hit by injuries.
And look, five foot eleven, two hundred and twenty seven pounds,
plays with a physical run style. And I think that
I'm kind of bearing the lead here with why was
I right last or last week about Travis Eten because
he was facing the New York freaking Jets Jets the

(50:00):
last five running micks they have faced a Chan RB eight,
djat RB one, Derrick Henry RB four, Henderson RB three,
etm last week RB two, Like you just gotta follow
the flow chart, guys. They play the running back that's
facing the New York Jets who just fire their defensive coordinator,
Steve Welks. Maybe it makes them better, maybe he doesn't.
I don't think it will. Saints as home favorites positive

(50:22):
game script. I think Estimate, if he gets going here,
I think you could see north of twenty carries and
have a monster monster game. So someone that love out
off waivers and start in your flex this week in
the semi finals. Dare I say if Jake London plays
pretty outscore Kyle Pitts, it might happen. But regardless, I
feel good about Estima as a flex this week.

Speaker 4 (50:44):
I love it. It's a great call.

Speaker 1 (50:46):
Where are you ranking him, By the way amongst running backs,
he's RB thirty nine in early ECR or thirty eight.

Speaker 3 (50:52):
It's gonna move regardless. We have to make it. Will
on Devin Neil.

Speaker 2 (50:57):
Look, I'm gonna have him in flex territory right where
it's like this guy, he'll probably be get the nod
over some of these fringier wide receiver plays.

Speaker 4 (51:06):
Estimate or Kareem Hunt.

Speaker 3 (51:07):
Esme Yeah, I'm not not. No Kareem Hunt for me
esme easy, okay.

Speaker 1 (51:14):
I The whole time, by the way that we were
talking about him, I just kept thinking like it would
be fun if he was on the Patriots and we
could do like mix the names and have it.

Speaker 4 (51:22):
Aw Drake Estima your two favorite players.

Speaker 1 (51:27):
I love odes we we are. We are the original
Odric estimates. I know we're now Kyle Manung guys, but
we are still estimating.

Speaker 3 (51:34):
Mamong guy let us down. Looked terrible.

Speaker 2 (51:38):
He let you down big time for sud like and
again like the process was right, I just got I
picked the wrong running back and again I still had
Swift ranked higher than Man, but I think they were
ranked back to back.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
So that was an l on my part.

Speaker 2 (51:49):
But I had the right game script, the right team,
just the wrong running back. Not gonna go oh and
two two weeks in a row on our guys. So
Audric est is gonna smash this week. And so guarantee
it's going to be Evan Hall with two touchdowns, one
hundred and fifty yards rushing, and I'm gonna be wearing
the clown mask on week eighteen when we come back.

Speaker 1 (52:09):
Okay, here's my hard rack best bet of the week.
The Raiders have a better offensive game than last week,
but still end up with no startable players in fantasy.
They are, of course going up against the Texans. It
is a laughable before you know matchup of that defense

(52:30):
versus that offense right now, So the prop angle I'm
taking on this is that is an under on really
any brock Bauer stat whatever it is. I'm the Raiders
like implied point total in this game is just like ludicrous.

Speaker 4 (52:45):
It's they're not going to score.

Speaker 1 (52:47):
I mean, it's like, I'm not going to predict a
shout out because that's crazy. But this is not going
to be a game where there are startable it's fantasy options.
I don't expect like and basically all that needs to
happen for that to be true for me is like
bad brock Bowers and Bratt bad Ash and Genty because
you know who else are even really considering in the

(53:09):
current state of the offense in this matchup. So yeah,
I'm going with no startable players. It's a you know
again better than they were against the Eagles because they
had under one hundred total yards in that game.

Speaker 3 (53:20):
Against the Severn five.

Speaker 1 (53:22):
They will have more than seventy five yards against the Texans,
but don't I don't know if they're going to score
much more. This is gonna be really ugly ericson.

Speaker 2 (53:31):
Yeah, I'm not really sure I have much else to
add here. Maybe it feel different if the Raiders are
playing at home, but it's also on the Road, so
you're not really dealing with that type of home underdog
type of narrative. Pete Carroll's talking about how he says
he's not playing for his job and there's a chance
that Geni Smith comes back, and clearly Genie Smith is
an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. So to your point about

(53:53):
the prediction being correct, if they do get their starting
quarterback back under center, think.

Speaker 3 (53:58):
That will give a boost to the off to at
least maybe kick a field goal.

Speaker 4 (54:02):
Bowers or Pits this week?

Speaker 2 (54:05):
Thank you? You still got to play Pitts. I can't, man, Yeah,
I think it's still Pets. Even Drake one new potentially
coming back.

Speaker 1 (54:11):
So those were our hard Rock Best Bets of the week.
Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bet. Are you out of your fantasy football
playoffs but still want to get in on the week
sixteen action, Head over to hard Rock Bet. They even
just launched a brand new for you page, making it
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(54:33):
find a bet you like, and then bam, your bet
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Speaker 4 (54:40):
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Speaker 1 (54:46):
A winning bet plus an extra one hundred and fifty
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Speaker 4 (54:49):
Now that's spreading holiday cheer. Plus.

Speaker 1 (54:51):
Hard Rock Bet fills your stockings with new promos daily,
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Speaker 5 (55:01):
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Speaker 4 (55:07):
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Speaker 5 (55:08):
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Speaker 3 (55:30):
Or all right, Eric, what's your favorite what's your favorite
Christmas movie?

Speaker 1 (55:35):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (55:35):
I know that's like cliche at this point.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
It like, if you count die Hard, I do love
die Hard, not encounting that because I know that's like
kind of a you know, there's a lot that goes
into that discussion, not counting die Hard. You know that
I really liked the old Rank and Bass specials growing
up as a kid, like Root Off the Red Nose
Reindeer in the Year with Out of Santa Claus, like
all that, like the Heat Miser, Snow Miser, Like I'd

(55:59):
really enjoyed those as a kid. As an adult, I
don't know if I have one that really comes to mind.

Speaker 4 (56:06):
I like Elf, just fine.

Speaker 1 (56:08):
I'm not one of these like Elf is the greatest
Christmas movie of all time. People, It's perfectly fine. I
don't dislike Will Ferrell. It's not like Holy Cow, like
I love this movie and I have to watch.

Speaker 4 (56:17):
It every year. Level good for me.

Speaker 1 (56:20):
And then you know, like there's obviously classics, like we
used always watch a Christmas Story and Home Alone, but
you know, they didn't really stand out as like this
is the one for me.

Speaker 4 (56:28):
Do you have an answer?

Speaker 3 (56:30):
It's Christmas Story for me. Christmas Story my favorite one.

Speaker 4 (56:34):
I just you know, I went.

Speaker 1 (56:35):
I went to that house very two years ago when
I was at the Fantasy Football Expo.

Speaker 4 (56:42):
A buddy of mine was living in Ohio at the time.

Speaker 1 (56:46):
He still is there, and he I met up with
him for lunch like on that Sunday of the expo
after the expo was done, and the brewery we went
to just so happened to be across the street from
the christ Smith Story House and they had like the
you know, the the leg the Major the Major Award

(57:07):
wasn't there. It was like it was crazy. It was like,
what are the I didn't know. This was just like
in the middle of Ohio somewhere.

Speaker 4 (57:14):
I didn't know. It was like a thing you could
go tour. But it was just happened to be across
the street from the brew or. So that was fun
and it's a good movie. I just like, like.

Speaker 1 (57:24):
I said, I just like when I think of Christmas movies,
I think of the ones I watch as a kid,
I don't think of like as an adult.

Speaker 4 (57:29):
This is my favorite SOS.

Speaker 3 (57:31):
Follow up to that? Yeah your nay The Grinch Jim Carrey.

Speaker 1 (57:36):
Uh, definitely yay. You know again, I'm not saying it's
like the all time greatest. I don't watch it every
year or anything, but strong yay. I like the animated
one too, that is that is a classic as well.
My dad loves to participate in anything. Really, He's like
very outgoing and you know, he'll sign up for whatever.

(57:58):
And so at our church growing up, he was like
he would dress up as the Grid and do all
the makeup, you know, and play at the Gridge for everybody.

Speaker 4 (58:05):
For all the kids.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
And it was, if you know my dad, it was
very much up his alley.

Speaker 4 (58:11):
Are you are you a Gridge guy?

Speaker 2 (58:13):
Yes?

Speaker 3 (58:14):
My wife is.

Speaker 2 (58:14):
It's like it's already like it's like the one movie
that we have to like schedule.

Speaker 3 (58:19):
Okay, when are we gonna watch it? In December? We're
watching spoiler watching it this Friday.

Speaker 1 (58:24):
I would love to watch I have never gotten into
this as a habit, but I want to get in
the habit. I know a lot of people do this,
so I'm not going on a limb, but rewatching like
Lord of the Rings every Christmas.

Speaker 4 (58:34):
I know a lot of people do that. It's been
a while since I've watched them, and I would like that.

Speaker 1 (58:38):
It does feel like a good Christmas like Stay in
Insie just kind of marathon. This like one of the
most perfect trilogies ever made, So I you know, maybe
that can kind of turn into something like that for me.
But let us know the comments what your favorite Christmas
movie is. Since we will not be here next week.
By the way, each week we do a quick fantasy
football live stream ahead of Thursday Night Football and the
Fantasy Pros YouTube channel at a short betting live stream

(58:58):
ahead of Monday Night Football and the bed Pros YouTube channel.
Both of them go from eight pm Eastern until kickoff.
Please check them out, subscribe to our YouTube channels and
click the bell to be notified of all of our
weekly live streams.

Speaker 4 (59:09):
Best of luck everybody here in week sixteen.

Speaker 1 (59:11):
Hard to believe we are trying to lock up those
championship spots already for ericson, I'm Ryan warmly, thanks for
tuning in and.

Speaker 4 (59:18):
We'll see you in a couple of weeks.

Speaker 1 (59:19):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast.
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FantasyPros - Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 16 (Ep. 1903)

Episode Transcript

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}FantasyPros - Top 10 Fantasy Football Predictions & Prop Bets for Week 16 (Ep. 1903)