Hoops Tonight - EVERY WAY Pacers should beat Thunder in NBA Finals w/ Sam Vecenie

Jason Timpf is joined by head NBA writer for the Athletic Sam Vecenie to break down the NBA Finials between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. They both give their general thoughts on the matchup before discussing every strategy and game plan the Pacers could use to beat OKC, why Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are so important, and how tough it is to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Timeline

0:00 Start
5:27 Series overview
15:55 Pacers offense
37:25 Pacers defense
49:00 OKC historic greatness

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 2 (02:18):
All Right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at the volume.
Happy Tuesday, everybody. Oh off, all of you guys are
having a great start to your week. Well, my friend,
my good friend, Sam Vessini is coming on the show,
and we have a very fun kind of format for today,
and it's kind of unusual. Under the circumstances, the thunder
are a massive favorite to win the NBA Finals. They
are currently minus seven hundred and so under those circumstances,

(02:40):
we talked and we came to the conclusion that it
would be a fun exercise to pretend that Sam and
I are the coaches of the Indiana Pacers and we
are attempting to come up with a game plan that
might give us the best chance to win this particular series. Sam,

(03:01):
before we even get started, how are you doing, man?
We haven't talked in a long time. It's been a very,
very busy few months. But it's so nice to have
you back on the show.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
It's great to be here. It's busy. I finally just
finished the draft Guide, which means I'm like up for
air now. I finally can you know, relax a little
bit on top of you know, all of the crazy
recording that Bryce and I have done, where we're going
live every other night for the playoffs is the schedule
we've done in the playoffs. So it's good to be

(03:31):
up for air, and it's good to chat with you again.
Like I feel terrible, like we haven't even caught up
on the phone because I've just been like literally in
front of my computer. This is the time of year
where I put on like eight pounds or nine pounds
just because I have to watch so much tape, like
to stay above water on both I finally get to
go to the gym after we're done with this, It's

(03:52):
gonna be great. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (03:53):
I was gonna say I stopped playing as much basketball
for a while there in like April and May, and
like I was starting to not play as we well,
started to get a little down on myself. I was like,
I need to get some of this routine back in motion.
And thankfully in the finals we space out a little
bit so before we get into our exercise, I couldn't
help but think after the finals were set about a

(04:14):
conversation you and I had on this show right after
the NBA Finals last year. We discussed this. I asked
you what your biggest lesson you learned from the playoffs was,
and we both had like similar answers that were like
in different kind of like they were more or less

(04:34):
meaning the same thing. But the answer you came up
with was ground coverage and essentially having to do with
speed and the ability to cover ground in rotation because
of the idea that in order to do anything to
make a star uncomfortable, you have to do a certain
amount of aggressive loading up and that inherently puts you
into these rotation situations. And then there's also just the

(04:55):
reality of how much of the game is being played.
In transition, I kind of became obsessed around the idea
of perimeter speed. This was a concept that I was
hitting on a lot around the same time, and it
more or less means the same thing. But I can't
help but notice that we have these two teams that
are not particularly big, but that have a depth of

(05:17):
perimeter speed and the ability to cover ground in rotation
that vastly supersedes some of the other teams that we've
seen around the league. And so I my first question
for you is just what have you really learned from
this particular postseason run with Indiana in Oklahoma City ending
up in the finals. Does it legitimize anything about your

(05:38):
big picture basketball worldview.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
Yeah, I think that that is a really good point
in terms of the ground coverage defensively, and look, I've
been obsessed with this for a couple of years now,
for sure. I think I would add to it and
just say that I think every team needs a five
out look at the very least, like it might not
be your primary designation, but to at least have the
look to be able to go five out at all times.

(06:03):
Otherwise it's just really hard to be able to survive
in the NBA currently because you need different kinds of
adjustments you need to be able to make depending on
the situation. You know, against the Lakers, Minnesota really thrived
by loading up and being able to play as big
as possible, but you know, in other situations they certainly
needed to be able to go five out and be

(06:24):
able to play multiple different offensive looks more than anything.
So being able to go five out would be what
I would add at any point, even if it's not
your primary look. I would hope that it's your primary look,
to be frank, but I think you can make it
work without it being your primary look.

Speaker 2 (06:43):
The other thing that kind of stood out to me
was just depth. Yeah, Jackson and I were talking on
playback the other night just this. You know, there's all
this low hanging fruit in basketball, in terms of things
like picking up full court to make people uncomfortable, in
terms of like being able to to play an incredibly
hillacious pace, in terms of really having like an overall

(07:07):
expectation that everyone in your lineup is allowed to be aggressive,
that everyone in your lineup is allowed to turn the
corner and look to score. And I think that there's
a reality that you need depth in order to do that.
And I think what stood out to me as like
a counter example was the Knicks with Tom Thibodeaux, where
all year long he's emphasizing heavy minutes for starters under
the guys of conditioning. But all year long, those guys

(07:31):
were not sharp on the details, in large part because
they had to play such heavy minute loads. And so
I'm not saying it's the end all be all, because
I do think it's possible for you to have success
in the NBA without a ton of depth, especially if
you've got like six rock solid players. The Celtics famously
last year they're like a pretty tight eight man rotation,
and towards the end they were leaning pretty heavily on

(07:53):
their top six guys, But I think there's some reality
to the fact that you can exploit more of that
low hanging fruit by having a good ten to eleven
man rotation of guys that can at least succeed within
your scheme on both ends of the floor.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
Well, the other way to exploit that low hanging fruit,
I'm glad you brought up the low hanging fruit idea
is something that both Indiana and The Thunder honestly do
maybe better than anybody, And that's like spurt ability, right,
the ability to just go on these crazy runs and
create points off of turnovers immediately. I believe that Indiana

(08:30):
and the Thunder right now are currently first and second
in the playoffs and points per game off of turnovers, right,
and you look at the way that the series is gonna,
you know, flow. In my opinion, it's going to be
based on the idea of the turnover battle, because nobody
does a better job of forcing turnovers than Oklahoma City,
and arguably nobody does a better job of reducing turnovers

(08:51):
than Indiana, right, So like that battle, to me, is
going to be the key to this series. But Indiana,
I think is a really underrated team in terms of
forcing points off turnovers, just because while they don't like
force an insane number of them, they're always lethal in
how they execute off of them. They are so intentional
in the way that they go about finding mismatches if

(09:11):
you have anything to exploit, they are incredible at finding
different cross matches in transition to be able to attack.
That's just the reality of what they do is because
they have Haliburton and Emhard, both of whom have grown
up playing in these uptempo schemes as point guards. Right,
they have this incredible ability to always find the cross match.

(09:31):
Both of those guys are really sharp, knowing exactly where
the advantage is. Gonzaga played it one of the fastest
tempos in the league or in the country under Andrew Nemhard, Right,
Tyrese Haliburton's been playing this way for years, Right, he
just knows how to handle it. Having multiple ball handlers
out there who can all shoot, who can all make
decisions at the end of the day, Like, what this

(09:53):
comes down to for me on some level is a
the ground coverage and be just decision making in general.
The ability to to process the court like basketball in
the court at such a high level is so incredibly important.
It's why we've seen Alex Caruso just you know, elevate
his game even further in the playoffs this year. It's
why we see guys like chet Holm Grant at the
center position be able to you know, make decisions faster

(10:17):
than other centers in my opinion, play such a critical
role for them. Isaiah Hartenstein's a very good decision maker
for a big for Oklahoma City. On the other side,
I would argue that Miles Turner is just so well
drilled within that scheme at this point. Pascal Siakam is
so problematic in terms of creating mismatches, but he also
makes good decisions as well in terms of when to

(10:39):
attack those mismatches. The ability to process basketball is just
absolutely critical to me. It is the number one thing
to me that these two teams, particularly beyond not really
having like a weak link on the court to really attack.
That's what these two teams do better than anybody in
my opinion.

Speaker 2 (10:57):
Well, and with the way they play defense, they're gearing
everything around, rushing you and getting you to make mistakes
as decision makers. And like we were blown away when
we would watch film from the Knick series how often
they would have like really poor spacing where there'd be
nobody above the break for some reason, which was the

(11:18):
number one culprit of their transition defense issues. And then
they'd have like Mitchell Robinson in one dunker spot and
ogn and Obie in the other dunker spot, and Kat
just set a ball screen for Brunson and for some
reason he's rolling and You're like, You're like, what the
fuck are you guys doing? Like this is there's so
many like simple things like that where it's like when
you watch the Celtics when they were at their best,
and I actually think the Thunder are an underrated kind

(11:39):
of like spacing relocating team. They they just kind of
whirl around off the ball really well. But like there
they're just so much sharper with the little decisions about
where they relocate to where they space to where they
cut from. Like how you know one of the reasons
why they're such good transition defense is is their ability
to kind of make sure they always have their floor
balance set up well.

Speaker 1 (11:59):
Speaking that point, like I saw, you know, your volume
colleague Jeff Tigue bring up that like when he played
for TIBs. Like Tibbs, isn't you know, wildly intentional about
these things? Right? Like he just like kind of says
go and then just yells damn a whole lot, right, uh.
Like the intentionality is really critical to me, like having

(12:20):
intentional spacing, and that's why, like, to me, I kind
of understand, like, even though the Nicks just went to
the conference finals, if they want to move on from TIBs, Like,
I'm not gonna sit here and complain. I thought he
coached an incredibly poor series against the Indiana Pacers, just
both in terms of the lineups he decided to utilize
going two bigs against that transition attack, and then additionally,

(12:42):
the intentionality of the spacing just feels totally wrong all
the time to me with them, not not all the time,
but too often, let's go with for a team that
is as talented as they are. So when I look
at these two teams, I think that what stands out,
you know, of what I've said so far is the coaching.

(13:03):
These two coaches are two of the top five coaches
in the league. And I actually wonder I think for
a while we were at a point where there were
like five really elite coaches, right, like guys that I
thought really moved the needle for you, And then I
thought there were like five or six, like not great
coaches that moved the needle negatively, and then everybody else

(13:23):
is kind of in the middle. Right. I actually wonder
if in this new era of basketball where intentionality in
regard to spacing, in terms of tempo, in terms of rotations,
in terms of making sure you don't have like a
week link on the court regularly, I think we might
be at a point now where coaching is actually starting

(13:45):
to become more important even than what we had been
thinking of it as being previously, because that intentionality in spacing,
in rotational alignment is so critical now in the biggest
moments in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (13:59):
No agree like this low hanging fruit stuff. It's not
based on like just easily attainable points that everyone in
the league is known about for decades. It's a lot
about how the game has changed. Like the Boston was
able to tow the line of being an elite offensive
rebounding team and an elite transition defense. Why because they

(14:22):
utilize these corner crashes towards the elbows. Because they understood
this is where the ball most frequently comes off of
the rim, and it also is kind of like a
runway for our transition defense. The top two guys get back.
These guys crashing out of the corners can kind of
whirl up the floor after they make that crash, And
there's just like this kind of understanding that, like, Okay,
every time we play in transition, we're twenty percent more efficient,

(14:44):
So why would we not hunt that at every single
opportunity that we have. You mentioned the cross matches like.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
Literally antithesis of that, Jason. Defensively as well, with your spacing,
the Knicks constantly had like four five guys below the
foul line chasing offensive rebounds against the Pacers as well,
So like that, it's not just spacing from an offensive perspective,
it is actually kind of spacing from a defensive perspective too,

(15:14):
and making sure that you're able to stop the low
hanging fruit on the other end too.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
It's yeah, it's like we've just we've been talking so
much about the things that they've been taking advantage of.
To your point, both the Pacers and the Thunder are
great at not turning the ball over. Yes, both this
is these are all like readily attainable things and so
like this is one of the things that US Laker
fans were bitching and moaning about NonStop with respect to
JJ Reddick versus Darvin Ham is, like JJ did not

(15:40):
do a good job in this postseason run, and he's
got obviously playoff game planning and adjustments to figure out
at a higher level than what he figured that what
he had this year. And uh, but like JJ at
the very least came in from day one and was like,
we're gonna harp on these details. So and they suddenly
were a better team. And like shake gives as Alexander
and his MVP speech mentioning how Dagnault was just a
pain in the end, Like that stuff is all incredibly

(16:02):
important to maximizing, especially when the margins are smaller too,
Like this isn't the this isn't what it was ten
years ago, where the Calves and the Warriors are so
clearly better than everyone that everyone else is just kind
of fighting for second place in their conference. Like this
is every if you look at these the playoff field
this year kind of felt like anybody could get it done.
And here we are. We're with Indiana and Oklahoma City
and Oklahoma City was this close to losing in the

(16:23):
second round. Like, these are very very tight margins. By
the way, Oklahoma City was this close to losing in
the second round in a series where they had twenty
seven points per game off of turnovers. So, like, you
tell me whether or not low hanging fruit matters in
the NBA. But let's get Let's get to this series.
And so you and I are the coaching staff. We
are trying to figure out who's the lead assistant Indiana

(16:46):
right now? Do you know off the top of your hand.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
I think they do different things for different ends of
the court, Like Jake Boose coordinators I know does the
defensive side. I can't remember who does the offensive side.
I feel like Rick does a good amount of the
offensive side, but I can't remember who they are, Like
coordinator is on that.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
End, gotcha. So we're sitting down in our coaches meeting,
we're focusing on the offensive end of the floor. I
wrote down a couple ideas and I'm gonna just give
one of them to you right now. We'll just kind
of go from there. So I have a feeling that
this series ends with Chet at the five there's some
pretty strong data from the regular season that Isaiah Hartenstein

(17:22):
struggles to guard this team. Not hard to figure out why.
The traditional bigs that are not like apex athletes like
Mitchell Robinson are gonna struggle to a certain extent in
this type of whirling dervish type of offense. So I
think it's gonna be a lot of Chet at the
five alongside four perimeter type of players. So I think
it's vitally important for the Pacers to force Chet to

(17:43):
guard on the perimeter as much as possible. So my
next question, if I first pitched to you, is this,
should Indiana consider going small in this series?

Speaker 1 (17:57):
In what respect? So are we talking like Toppin' and Pascal?
Are we talking, you know, like they go four perimeter
guys in like Nie Smith at the four? Small? Like
how small?

Speaker 2 (18:12):
I would say, like a good amount of Siakaman top.
And then for the record, this is not this is
not like we start the game this way. This is
like does the game tilt towards we are because we
haven't even got to the other end of the floor.
They did struggle a little bit in ball screens, especially
with Heart and stegin getting behind and I think that's
gonna happen a lot with Chat as well. So, like

(18:32):
my idea behind the Pacers going small is the true
switch ability to be able to switch ball screens and
prevent the easy kind of reads that Indiana or that
Oklahoma City can make in pick and roll, but also
the ability to consistently force Chat to guard on the perimeter.
I think that Indiana is gonna be able to get
a certain amount of like pick and pop type of

(18:53):
stuff with Miles Turner, but I think that Okay c
He's gonna live with chasing him off with just a
late closeout. And so what I'm I'm wondering is could
you actually force Chet to guard in more action and
force them to guard in the perimeter more by going small,
especially with a team that's not particularly big in any case.

Speaker 1 (19:13):
So I don't mind this idea. In general, the Pacers
have really taken advantage of Biggs in the playoffs. This
you know, entire run from Mitchell Robinson to like Jared
Allen never being able to figure out that Tyres Haliburton
only goes right right like they have really really struggled. Uh,
They've really taken advantage of that and other teams have

(19:34):
struggled to deal with them. I don't so like almost
the way I'm gonna think of this as like, you know,
you you bring up this idea, and like I'm trying
to think of like it from Oklahoma City's perspective, because
so much of this is a chess game, right, You're
trying to figure out what the counters are going to
be ahead of the counters, right, So if you go small, right,
do you think that a Siakam based five unit is

(20:00):
going to be capable of taking advantage of Hartenstein enough?
Is my question, because if I'm the thunder at that point,
I'm just crashing Hartenstein to the glass on the offensive
end fairly regularly, especially with how I'm assuming you're gonna

(20:20):
have to play defensively, where you're gonna have to play a
little bit more like shell coverages as opposed to like
getting aggressive and trying to force turnovers because Oklahom City
doesn't really do that. So that would create like potentially
more situations where Hartenstein might be able to crash the
offensive glass a little bit easier. I do agree with
your point that like the Hartenstein minutes will probably only

(20:42):
be like twenty ye or so a game. But like,
if you're going smaller, do I just match and go
bigger with Hartenstein and Chet and say, okay, can Siakam
beat Hartenstein in a mismatched situation? My guess is yes,
But like at what level? Would be my question to you?

Speaker 2 (21:00):
So Hart and Sign was matched up with Siakam one
on one quite a few times and transition cross matches.
In the film that I was watching, I actually thought
Siakam had some success, just like getting downhill against him.
There was a little bit of like there were a
few plays where Siakam tried to draw fouls and it
didn't work. But I actually liked Siakham's attack attacks against

(21:22):
Oklahoma City's Biggs. But the point you' bringing up about
Hart and Stein is fair. I think the way that
I would think of it is, in this theoretical scenario,
the Pacers have played Hart and Sign off the floor
and then they go small. So essentially it would be
almost like mirroring Miles Turner's Minutes to Heart and Sign,
if that makes sense.

Speaker 1 (21:41):
The other thing that we have to talk about here
in any of the minutes that we watched on film,
because I have watched the other games as well, like
the games from the regular season which Oklahoma City went
to and the game in March was like a twenty
point beating and Chet did not play in either of
these games. Is like the like basically everybody else, Like
I think Ben Matherin missed one of the games as well,

(22:02):
but like basically everybody else played in these games. So
like we have like a decent sample here, but Chet
did not play and that does like really fundamentally change
a lot for the way that Indiana is gonna be
able to match up. I think what worries me about this?
And I don't even know that you're wrong, Like I
think that it's potentially their best option. I think it's

(22:25):
potentially Indiana's best option. Is I do think Chet is
better at guarding on the perimeter than like, you know,
Carl Towns, and then you know anybody like Jared Allen,
like any of these other guys that they played, right,
So what would worry me about this is you're just like, Okay,

(22:46):
we're just gonna play drop with Chet, and we're gonna
play at the level. Maybe with Chet you're gonna try
and what like slip Siakam behind him maybe to get
like an easy mismatch at times, maybe you try and
run like a quick, little like slide action where it's
just like a quick little ghost pick and pop kind
of thing in order to catch him. I think Indiana
does a really good job of differentiating the kinds of

(23:07):
ball screens that they run. For sure, maybe like it
might be their best option is to go small. It's
just the issue is, like they haven't really been willing
to do this, and I did it.

Speaker 2 (23:20):
A little bit at the end of the next series,
just a little bit.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
Yeah, Yeah, I'm like all in favor of them not
playing Tony Bradley and Thomas Bryant, Like, I think those
are the minutes that really worry me if I'm Indiana,
But yeah, this is better to me. This is a
good idea. If I'm them, I'm definitely playing small more
than I'm playing the ten to twelve minutes a game
where Thomas Bryant and Tony Bradley are on the court,

(23:45):
I would definitely do that.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
Yeah, it ties to the defensive end because I didn't
like the way that I thought that Indiana gave up
a lot of vertical spacing opportunities on the role, specifically
to Hartenstein and that's what kind of I'm glad you
brought up the Chet piece because we talked about this
in our series preview. Like, I look at Chet as
the best of both worlds with Hartenstein in the sense

(24:07):
that he brings the same kind of vertical spacing element
as a guy that can roll behind the defense, but
that legitimately can guard on the perimeter in this whirling
kind of offense. That said, even within that context, I
think he's the smartest target point for Indiana to try
to go after, just because he's a big body and
if you can get him shifting one way or the other,
that could help.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
The other thing with Chet is a lob threat to me, right,
I always think Chet is a little bit better is
a lob threat cutting baseline than he is in ball screens.
I just think it allows him to load up a
little bit easier on those like in those situations. But
what that does is it means that like a lot
of the ball screens will be set like guard to guard, right,

(24:49):
And I would imagine that like figuring out an answer
to the guard to guard screening actions and the small
lineups or actually those are actually going to be the
critical thing to me trying to figure out, like, Okay,
how do we how do we handle the guard to guards?
Are we just switching if it means we're getting Halliburton
on Shay, or if it means we're getting you know,
Obi Toppin onto Shay, or are we you know, gonna

(25:13):
try and like hedge and recover a little bit with
Halliburton and top In. Obviously you switch anything, nem Hardne Smith,
I would think, but you know, what would your answer
be to the way that you guard to guard ball
screens if you're going smaller would be my question?

Speaker 2 (25:27):
I would switch. I thought that Halliburton's hedges straight up
didn't work because Oklahoma City's guards were just slipping to
the rim, particularly Cason Wallace. And I feel like Halliburton
is at his best when he's going against like ghost
screen guards that go to the three point line, because
he's really good at getting out of the hedge with

(25:49):
his hands up and making that pass kind of float
over the top and being able to rotate relatively quick.
But I think the traditional like kind of guard guard
screen where the guard just slips to to the rim
torch Haliburton I actually thought he did okay in his
shase switches like okay, and like at least enough to
make him hit a couple counter moves to where the

(26:10):
help defense could get involved, and he actually did force
a couple of misses. I know that's a lot to
ask for Halliburton, but I'm worried that if they just
let him hedge that it's going to end in a
bunch of slips. But you're right, I mean going small,
I think the entire game plan shifts more towards switching,
because essentially the entire purpose of going small on both

(26:31):
ends of the floor, it revolves around being able to
attack chat in space more effectively and then being able
to switch ball screens so that they don't have the
issues they were having with the role man in the
regular season. So I find that to be most likely
a switching scheme if they were to go small.

Speaker 1 (26:48):
Okay, And then final final question here about this piece
of it. If you go small, so do you just trust,
if you're Oklahoma City, for Jalen Williams to be able
to guard Siakam Because if you do that, then it's Toppin'.
Then it's chet on topin And I would imagine they'll
just leave top and open from three at that point.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
Yeah, I think you could also talk me specifically because
of the Oklahoma City matchup into them going into more guards.
I actually put this, Actually, this is the perfect pivot
to the next one. I had a different one for
my second piece, but we'll circle back to that, should
they because a lot of my Indiana on offense takes
are geared around the idea that they're going to be
face guarding Tyres Haliburton and ball pressuring in full court

(27:31):
and some of the stuff with him kind of getting disengaged.
Haliburton's usage rate in the regular season is low compared
to other guards because of how quickly he gets rid
of the ball, but even juxtapose with his normal usage rate,
his usage rate against Oklahoma City was hilariously low. It
was like twelve percent.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
So the one game, like he took like six shots
or something like.

Speaker 2 (27:53):
Yeah, that it was the first one early in the season,
and he was aggressive in the second game as a
three point shooter, but he wasn't really the same kind
of like downhill force that he can usually be. So
what I'm worried about because the other thing too, that
kind of hammers that home is both Cleveland and New
York had success to dying Halburton, and that's specifically leading

(28:16):
to him kind of getting disengaged. So I'm kind of
obsessed with this idea of how to make Haliburton useful
as an off ball player in this series. So first,
the third piece that I wrote down here to kind
of circle back to your point about who this fifth
guy should be, I think dribble penetration is going to
be really important because when things really bogged down for

(28:37):
Indiana against Oklahoma City, especially when they start to switch,
they're gonna need someone who can beat the man in
front of him. And all of a sudden, I start
looking at TJ McConnell as an option. So I'm wondering if,
obviously TJ makes no sense if you're going to be
playing through Halliburton on ball. But let's say that Dort
has a bunch of success against Haliburton early in the

(28:58):
series with the niles and physicality, and Halliburton's just clearly
super uncomfortable. You know, We're halfway through game two and
he has like thirteen total points on like twelve shots,
and we're like, something's gone going on. We gotta find
a way to get Haliburton going, I would start to
look at like a guard lineup that has TJ alongside Hallie,

(29:20):
where he can one space the floor off the ball,
but two I would be obsessed with using Halliburton as
a screener in this series because if Dort's gonna hug
up to him, then that's the best time to use
him as a screener because either O Dort will have
to help, which will get him separated from that pressure,
or you're gonna get all sorts of dribble penetration off
of Dort not helping on screens. But either way, I

(29:44):
like the idea of having a guard like TJ who's
big and plays bigger than he is, but that has
the ability to beat the man in front of him
off the dribble. Arguably that's his best NBA Trait is
like he can get past his man, and so I
think that suddenly becomes really valuable alongside a Halliburton lineup.

Speaker 1 (30:00):
Or he's not being aggressive, Yeah, no, this I completely
agree with. I would expect that offensively, TJ will play
a big role in this series just because they do
need somebody who can get consistent penetration against Oklahoma City
and I do think that TJ can just drive like
Cason will be on him at times a great defender.

(30:20):
Maybe you put Caruso on him at times. Maybe Cruso
guards up the lineup. He's just so flexible in terms
of what you can do with him that he's critical
in a lot of ways. But I think TJ can
get downhill like in a way that is just effective
almost against anybody. It's what happens when he gets to
the paint that is the question, right, Like can he
make the mid range jumper? Can he you know, get
all the way downhill and get all the way to

(30:40):
the rim. I think he might struggle there. But I
agree with you totally in terms of the idea of
using Haliburton as a screener, Like I would like I'd
be looking at like double drags into flares right for
Halliburton to be able to potentially try and get him loose.
I'd be looking at like, you know, trying to run
even like off ball action for Halliburton, where like you know,

(31:04):
he's the screener, like you set like a double pin
down like a rap pin or something where Halliburton is
the initial screener and then you know the guy in
the corner. Maybe it's like Obi toppin or something comes
around and sets like a rap pin for him to
come around and be able to like go up and
get the ball right. Like, those ideas are really interesting
to me in the series, Like, those are things that

(31:25):
I would almost certainly try to look at. I think
that that's gonna be huge because if you look at
where the Knicks started to have success with Haliburton later
in the series, it was the pickup point, right, like
they would pick him up fifty sixty feet from the
rim and say, hey, we're gonna make life a little
bit harder on you. We're gonna make sure that you
have to work for every single second that you're on
the court here, especially whenever you're not running in transition,

(31:48):
not off of a make any The key here for
the Thunder almost to me, is like can their offensive
efficiency be strong enough to where they can stop Indiana
from running at the end of the day, because they
will run off of missus, they will run off of turnovers.
Like I think that against Oklahoma City, you probably struggle
to run off of makes quite as often, just because

(32:09):
of the fact that Oklahoma City doesn't really go for
the offensive class regularly, Like, it's just not something that
they do. I think they were like twenty first twenty
seconds something like that in the league and offensive rebounding
rate this year, so they're almost always have four guys back.
It's gonna be a little bit harder to run in transition,
so you're gonna have to figure out ways to get
offensive efficiency in the half court. And to me, making

(32:32):
Haliburton a screener and then trying to get him loose
off the ball, that's a really that's something I would
absolutely do. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (32:39):
Yeah, the last piece I had it and it all
falls in the same lane is just Siakam Halliburton inverted
ball screens. I think the series eventually tilts towards Jadubb
guarding Siakam. I think Jadab has generally done a good
job against some of these big scoring forwards. He's just
built like a truck and he's got long arms, which
I think is the big thing. That you can swipe

(33:00):
at the basketball without getting out of position, which is key.
But same sort of concept like imagine dort Now. I
think Oklahoma City would inevitably just start switching this, But
I think I like Haliburton's ability to potentially beat Jadub
off the dribble more than I like him against Dort,
And similarly, I think I like Dor. I think I
like Siakam trying to score against Dort in the posts
more than I like him trying to score against Jay

(33:22):
Dub And so now inevitably I think Oklahoma City will
double post ups over the course of the series. But
I think that I would really really explore just Siakam
at the top of the key with Haliburton as a
screener and then Haliburton basically just slipping out to the
three point line if they're gonna if they're not gonna switch,
and if they do switch, then using both of those
guys just having more favorable matchups. But to your point,

(33:44):
and this is the more important piece of it all,
I think Indiana is gonna be running less for buckets
in this series because of Oklahoma City's transition defense, but
running more for those transition cross matches, because I think
those are gonna be the key to getting them earlier,
easier opportunities in the half court.

Speaker 1 (34:01):
See. But and I know we're trying to look at
this from like, how does Indiana win? That's what makes
India That's what makes the thunder really really hard to
deal with is because like, their cross matches are not
always advantageous, right, uh, certainly not nearly marginally as advantageous
as other teams cross matches are. Right, So, okay, we're

(34:23):
cross matching in transition, right, we're getting uh oh wait,
it's Caruso and Halliburton. Now it's uh it's Cason Wallace
on Aaron Nesmith now right, Like It's it's hard, right,
especially when you have a number of different bodies that
I feel okay with guarding Siakam right, Like, like, I
feel fine if Caruso is on Siakam, I feel fine.

(34:47):
If Jalen is on Siakam, I feel certainly fine. If
Cheta is on Siakam. Right, Shay is like, to me,
the guy that you probably want to try and bring
into the action defensively. And this isn't because sha as
a bad defender. I certainly don't think he is. It's more,
can you wear him down and kind of tire him
out a little bit over the course of a series.

(35:09):
The problem is in the finals there are two days
between every game except for one, so it's a little
bit trickier to even like try and go with the
let's wear somebody down angle, because you know, it's just harder,
but like maybe you can wear him down over the
course of a game a little bit, like a small amount.
Like who I would imagine that the way that they'll
set this up is that Shay is gonna be guarding

(35:29):
Nie Smith. We think, yeah, right, So like to me,
I'm gonna set a bunch of Nie Smith screens early
in the game. I want to make Shae try and
guard early in games, is what I'm doing. If I'm Indiana.
Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but at the very least,
I'm making him work defensively and trying to make him

(35:51):
engaged in the game defensively a little bit more often
than what you know he might have to be. Otherwise,
if he's able to play on Nie Smith and just
sitting corner and then he's so long and covers ground
so well that he's just going to be able to,
you know, sit off of him and kind of relax
a little bit, and then it's just very dangerous for

(36:12):
Indiana on the other end, because then he's well rested,
he's playing that free safety role in the back line.
He'll probably get some steals doing that because he's so long.
That's I think my goal early on would be to
try and involve Shae in screens. Even though Shae is
not a bad like on ball defender necessarily, I think.

Speaker 2 (36:31):
Shaye is a vehicle for them in a bunch of
different ways. Like I think in situations where they can't
push the ball at the floor in transition and they
have to face up ball pressure, I think that Shay
is an easy vehicle with which to like basically alleviate
some of that. So essentially just let Nee Smith bring
the ball to the floor, you know, when whenever Haliburton
needs a break or when he's fatigued. Things along those lines.

(36:51):
I think you mentioned using him as a screener. I
even think I would hunt him off the ball with
spot ups for aaron Ne Smith, because I think Aaron
Smith is a very good spot up, close out attacker.
And I think if I think, if if Dagnall has
Shay doing what he did in the other series, where
he's like quite literally in the paint the entire series,
just as like a roamer, I think that's where you
could end up burning him off ball with like those kickouts,

(37:14):
like ultimately before we shift over to the defensive end
of the floor. I think this series inevitably tilts as
long as Indiana doesn't like quite literally soil themselves against
all the ball pressure, which I just don't think they will.
But if if they just as long as they don't
like straight up soil themselves, they'll eventually take advantage of
the openings in Oklahoma City's base scheme by moving the

(37:36):
ball through it and getting those kickouts and knocking them
down and just playing Indiana Pacers basketball.

Speaker 1 (37:42):
But the difference is the penetration is the key.

Speaker 2 (37:45):
If they can get penetration. But even like within that context,
I like, for instance, like let's say, let's say that
they're running ball screens on the right side of the
floor with you know, or three man action on the
right side of the floor with Haliburton and Turner and
and you know, Nie Smith or something like that, they're
gonna tag rollers and they're gonna pinch in and the
skip pass is gonna be open, and Tyres is one
of the very best players in the league at making

(38:06):
the skip pass. So inevitably, I think the difference in
between the two teams is that, uh, I don't know
that Indiana has the same kind of defensive solutions that
Oklahoma City has. Like Oklahoma City can be like, we're
struggling to guard these actions, all right, guys, we're switching
everything guard, stay home, off ball. Let's force these guys
to play a bunch of one on one and let's
see what happens. And like to your point, there's just

(38:27):
not a favorable matchup out there. Like we were talking
about the Siakam Halliburton ball screen, I think there's a
good chance we see Caruso on Siakam a lot in
this series and have him just switch onto guards in
action and stuff like that. And so ultimately it comes
down to the fact that Oklahoma City just has more solutions.
But moving to the defensive end of the floor, the
first thing I wrote down is just the ultimate load up,

(38:50):
meaning bring Miles Tchurner up to the level every single time,
help hard as the low man live in rotation. The
thought probably as there is in this postseason, Oklahoma City
is still converting spot up possessions at just zero point
nine to six points per possession, which ranks tenth amongst
sixteen playoff teams. Now, I would argue that in every

(39:11):
big moment they've come through and hit those shots and
driven those close outs and made plays. But I still
think it's probably the best chance to slow this team
down in the half court and then forcing bigs to
score in the pocket, like bringing low man help more
towards the rim and less like aggressively up in the
middle and making those bigs like catch there. And they're
still shooting just forty nine percent as role men in

(39:31):
this postseason, and they're turning the ball over about ten
percent of the time there. So essentially by just living
in a super aggressive, loaded up traditional coverage where you're
at the level coming over as the low man, digging
into the paint, forcing them to basically score in the
pocket and score on spot ups, I think is still
the best base scheme that they could use in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
Okay, so here here'd be my first question, where is
the pickup point for you? Then I remember you picking
Shae up.

Speaker 2 (40:02):
I would start the series picking him up full court
just because that's your identity and just see how it goes.
But I would be willing to bail on that quickly
because Shaye is really good at turning ball pressure into
dribble penetration. And Oklahoma City is really good at setting
extended ball screens where they can get you into some trouble,
like even as far out as half court, to just

(40:24):
get you into a compromising position. So I would start there,
but I would potentially if Shae beats the ball pressure easily,
I would completely alter the pickup point to more of
a contain approach where you're conceding pull up threes and
you're ducking underpicks and you're like doing that sort of stuff.
The I just I would. I'm a big believer in, like,

(40:46):
don't pivot off of your identity until they knock you
off of it. So like this is a ball pressure
team that has lived with ball pressure all postseason. I
would start with that, but I would I would pivot
quickly if Shaye does what he did to Jada McDaniels
and just gets past some before you even get into
the half court.

Speaker 1 (41:02):
So I'm kind of working under the assumption that that's
gonna happen because that's just what Shade does, right, Like,
if you pick up high, he's gonna cause problems. And
if you pick up high and he doesn't cause problems,
then you're gonna give the ball to Jalen, and they're
gonna set screens for Jalen, and then Jalen's gonna get
downhill and he's gonna cause problems in terms of you
picking up too high, so they have too many options

(41:24):
to be able to handle the ball if you use
the pickup point that high. I agree with you, and
don't go away from your identity early in a series.
I think you shouldn't do that. But I do think
that the best way to guard this Oklahoma City team,
and just generally, because what you're trying to do here,
if you're Indiana, in my opinion, is you're trying to
create variants on some level, right ye you are the underdog.

(41:48):
You're trying to create variants. I'm trying to make them
a three point shooting team, and I'm trying to make
them a catch and shoot three point shooting team. Particularly
or not, I'm sorry, I'll pull up shoot three point
shooting team, not a catch and shoot three point shooting team.
I want to avoid the catch and shoot three point
shot as much as humanly possible. To me. The way

(42:08):
to do that is you go under. Chase, you under,
and like drop, even not drop, but like you play
not a fool drop, but like slightly at the level, right,
like slightly below the level. Maybe just make it so
Shay can't walk into like eighteen footers, right, and then

(42:30):
you led Jayden get back in recovery and then you
make and then they're probably gonna adjust to like more
guard to guard action, right, And that's fine to me
as well. Maybe you just switch that depending on what
your matchup is it it's Halliburton, I don't love that
switch you maybe decide to. Yeah, like I just go
I think I go under with Haliburton at that point

(42:51):
and don't even like you don't hard heads. You just
go under and drop and you make Shae beat you
with pull up threes as opposed to pull up two's.

Speaker 2 (43:00):
Yeah, I think the other thing they could explore there too,
is like using kind of a modified hedge where the
on ball guy kind of drops back to chuck the
cutter as Haliburton's throwing the hedge. Because ye my, it's
like with the at the level coverage. The at the
level coverage to me is not about taking away the
pull up. It's about preventing him from getting ahead of
steam like that. To me, that like, I I'm with

(43:22):
you like I want I want Shay taking as many
pull up jump shots as possible in this series. But
I think if you run too aggressive of a drop
and you let him get a runway, Yeah, it's one
thing to be like it's fine, just go under the pick,
but it's like all it takes is him just doing
a nifty ball handling move where he gets you jumping
under the pick and then he just reverses or something
like that, and you could be in some serious trouble.

(43:43):
So like that, that's the one thing where like I like,
I feel like at the level is primarily serving the
purpose of stopping the ball handler from getting ahead of
steam the hedges. I don't have a good answer for you.
The switch is bad with Haliburton. This like modified kind
of like Chuck the cutter thing I'm talking about. It's
all theoretical, like it's you're just that's just the reality

(44:05):
of Tyres Haliburton being Tyres Haliburton and trying to guard
in that sort of action. But I still think I
would try switching over anything else. But I generally agree
with you that, like the game plan of this particular
matchup is to gear them towards the highest variance shot
that they can take, which is literally a pull up
jump shot for Shay or j Dubb. We talked about
going small, that's the true one through five switchability, but

(44:28):
that opens the door for offense rebounding in the same
sort of problem that we talked about with Halliburton zone.
The thing with zone, I was gonna.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
Bring it up.

Speaker 2 (44:39):
The Thunder struggled a bit with zone early in the
Denver series, but they're averaging well over a point per
possession against zone over their last six playoff games, Like
they've been figuring that out, and it's just they just
have guys that are a lot of guys who are
comfortable working in the middle of the floor. And once again,
this team, the overall like ball movement and spacing principles
and just the awareness on offense is like so much

(44:59):
high than it was last year. In my opinion, they
could try some inventive zones like a three to two
or a one to three one, but I think chet
and Hartenstein and Caruso and Cason Wallace, I think all
of those guys have been great with like teeing up
and working along the baseline and like finding opportunities against
any sort of like front loaded defense. So like I

(45:23):
I think ultimately things come back down to what you
just mentioned, which is like that contain the ball, forced
them to play in drop some variation of drop, either
a high dropper or a low dropper, a mid somewhere
in the middle, and ducking under whenever possible, and basically
just putting the ball handler into this like decision zone
where it's like will I take this mediocre shot or

(45:45):
will I attempt to continue to work things around.

Speaker 1 (45:53):
And it's not an either or thing, right Like, if
I'm Rick Carlisle, I'm going into this series doing something
very similar to what Denver did in terms of I'm
not just sitting in a two three zone or I'm
not just sitting in man demand. I'm giving him five
different looks, you know what I mean? Like Denver in games,
what was it like three four and five maybe if

(46:15):
I remember correctly, they came out like a goofy one
three to one, where like Jokic was on the left wing,
you know what I mean, Like, and then they would
sync back into like their normal two three zone, and
then there'd be possessions where they played and drop, and
then there'd be possessions where they hedged like they gave
them different looks. And to me, you know, the days

(46:36):
off going into the finals, the days off between games
in the finals, that gives you ample opportunity to be
able to throw some of these things in, you know
what I mean, you can throw in the idea of Okay,
we're going to give them five different looks in the
first quarter like Denver did. We're gonna say, hey, we
need to be really solid with our two to three defense,

(46:58):
where like Denver's two three was really interesting, Like they
would lift Jokic pretty high toward like the foul line
area in order to take away that ability for you know,
Caruso to shoot into the foul line area or Check
to shoot into the foul line area, or for Shay
to feel comfortable once he got into that area because
he'd always have someone to contest. And then they'd have

(47:20):
the base, the back line guys in the corners, you know,
rotate in and rotate out right. Like it was like
a weird like almost like a two to one two
like two three zone. Half the time, Like if if
I'm them, I'm Indiana, I'm looking at it, like, Okay,
let's throw some of those looks in. Let's throw some

(47:42):
of those, like, let's throw a one to three one
look in, Let's throw a man de man look in.
And this is all very hard. This is all very
difficult on the fly when you haven't done it all season. Right,
this is the whole point of having all these days
off and having a team that I frankly think is
like filled with really freaking smart basketball players. Right, they

(48:06):
can probably figure that, like this team of guys, Like
I didn't really trust Minnesota's guys to figure it out,
because both Aunt and Julius Randall are just not attentive
enough off the ball defensively to be able to like
effectively be able to play his own. But most of
Indiana's guys are like pretty solid, Like even Tyreese is
like a pretty solid off ball defender. He knows where

(48:27):
he's supposed to rotate, he knows where he's supposed to go.
If I'm them, I'm just throwing all sort of different
looks at them. More than anything. I'm throwing different ball
screen coverages. I'm throwing different occasional zone looks, And if
I have some success, I see what's like you're throwing
spaghetti at a wall. Whenever you have like a fork

(48:47):
in the middle of the wall and you're seeing which
strand falls onto the fork and stays hanging as opposed
to falling to the ground. Right.

Speaker 2 (48:55):
I love this point that you're making because, like you
talked about trying to breed veryperience as much as possible,
and how I mean, even before we started talking about
the series, just about the value of coaching, and when
you have these extra days, you just have so much
more time to implement these sort of things. I almost
think of it like, you know, like in the NFL
when they talk about like your first drive being scripted,

(49:15):
and then you know, after you get off script, like
how well can you, you know, play call in the moment.
I almost feel like if you're gonna mix up coverages,
you almost go into it with like an incredibly scripted
approach where it's like, here's how we're coming out, here's
what we're gonna do. After the first time out, as
soon as they go to you know, this lineup, this

(49:37):
is what we're gonna do. As soon as they go
to that lineup, this is what we're gonna do. Then
we're suddenly gonna come out in the second half and
do this, and then when we're in an early fourth
quarter stretch, when you know, this is how we anticipate
the game to be going, this is what we're gonna do,
just have like an incredibly scripted approach to the mixing
up of coverages and essentially just calling your guys to
spend their off days mentally engaged, kind of figuring out

(49:59):
how they're gonna do that kind of stuff, because to
your point, they're gonna need every inch. They're gonna need
every inch to win this series. And so before we
wrap up today, I said on my show that I
would be absolutely stunned if Indiana won. I picked Oklahoma
City in five. I'm having a really hard time even
conceptualizing a universe where they win this series. Why don't

(50:21):
you just tell us, like your thirty thousand feet like
outlook on the series in terms of who you think
is gonna win, how you expect the series to go,
just like what your read is on the series from
your perspective.

Speaker 1 (50:34):
I also picked Oklahoma City in five in on my show.
I think that they're gonna throw just so many different
bodies at Halliburton. The thunder are gonna throw so many
different bodies at Halliburton, and then they also have bodies
like you can have two different primary defenders each game
to throw at Halliburton and Nemhard to be able to

(50:58):
just slow them down and annoy them. And then you're
making at that point, Nie Smith Siakam be the guys
that either bring them all off the court or have
to initiate offense or whatever you want to do in
order to have a real degree of effectiveness if those
guys get wiped out, so that worries me offensively. I mean,

(51:19):
look like the numbers say that Oklahoma City has been
better with the five out alignment of Chet at the
five and then four small guys jadab typically at the four. Right,
I am interested to see what the two big lineup
looks like against the Pacers, if only because I think

(51:40):
that because they do generally kind of abandon the offensive
glass outside of Hartenstein, that they might have a little
bit more success than teams like Cleveland in New York
did against Indiana in terms of just being able to
get all the way back in transit and avoid cross

(52:01):
matches in significant ways. The big things that really worry
me though, for the Pacers here are we're talking about
this all in a manner in which we know that
like they're entirely healthy, and like Miles Turner to me,
has not moved quite as well as he was early
in the playoffs since he went down the tunnel in

(52:23):
game two, if I remember correctly of the Knick series,
like I mean, Carl Towns like absolutely obliterated him in
that series in any like bench unit situation. I was like,
I did not love the way he was moving. And
then Aaron Nesmith as well obviously Sprain's's ankle or whatever
in game what was that four? Right?

Speaker 2 (52:45):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (52:46):
Game five?

Speaker 2 (52:47):
Maybe yea. And he hasn't been as impactful since he
came back yet.

Speaker 1 (52:50):
He hasn't been as impactful and just hasn't like played
more than twenty minutes in a game yet. So like,
if he can't play a ton of a ton of minutes,
jars Walker is gonna miss the first two games of
this series as well. And like you know, I'm not
sitting here saying that I think Jarris Walker is like
an impact player by any stretch of the imagination in
an NBA Finals, I mean, maybe down the road, but
I don't really know what to expect from him even

(53:14):
when he gets back and losing him gives you like
another chess piece that you can throw down at the table.
Here having Tony Bradley and Thomas Bryant like you probably
play them like minutes of this series unless Obi top
Im proves that he's able to like play the five
consistently and frankly, Rick Carlisle proves that he's willing to

(53:36):
play small consistently, which like he hasn't done yet. Yeah, look,
I think they steal one for sure because I just
have an immense amount of faith in this Indiana team.
But the biggest thing for me here is look like
I had Oklahoma City. I don't even think I picked
a winner of these two in the preseason. I had

(53:56):
Oklahoma City in Boston as the two teams that I
thought would be in finals in the preseason. I picked
Oklahoma City. At the start of the playoffs, Like, I
think we're just way underrating how good this team is
and how well they've been built. This is a genuinely
historic defense that they've built. That they are one of
the best defensive teams I've ever watched play in my

(54:17):
entire life, and they have an MVP candidate to be
able to get them enough on offense, and they have
the five out structure to be able to play well
enough on offense to be able to make it work.
Like they have Shay Gills Alexander who could probably retire
now and be a Hall of Famer. They have Chet
and Jalen Williams, who, like frankly like if they go
down and become Hall of Famers, I don't think anybody

(54:38):
should be surprised based on what they've shown so far.
I'm not going to sit here and say these guys
are Hall of Famers right now, but like that trajectory
is very open to them still in a real way.
And they just have like a tremendous number of role
players that are really hard to deal with. So they
won sixty eight games and have a like elite elite defense.

(55:02):
This might just be like a truly great team, right,
It's okay, Like it's okay for the Pacers to lose
like a truly truly great team, And I think that
that's kind of where this is setting up at this point.

Speaker 2 (55:13):
Yeah, it's interesting because, like I think some of the
criticism of Oklahoma City going into the postseason was fair
in the sense that, like their offense was rickety. And
guess what, every time they lost in this postseason, it
was rickety. Like all four of their losses, their half
court offensive rating was below ninety, and they and it
was close. Like they were down nine in Game five

(55:34):
of the Nuggets series in the fourth quarter, they were
down eight in Game four of the Nugget series in
the fourth quarter. They could have been a second round exit,
but to their credit, they conquered their demons in those
moments and got the job done. And so like it.
I thought Oklahoma City had all the markers of one
of those great teams, but I thought the skepticism surrounding

(55:55):
them was also fair. I had them second going into
the postseason, behind Boston just because I looked at Boston
is essentially a team that could reach not that same
level defensively, but a very high level defensively, but also
just a more experienced, veteran reliable offense. And that ended
up being completely wrong, as Boston quite literally fell apart
in that Nick series. But I agree with you, like

(56:16):
I think I think Indiana gets Game three. I think
it's completely reasonable to think that Indiana can get a
game based on that rickety offense, Like they're they just
have the ability still to go very cold, and their
guard initiators are still somewhat prone to stretches of poor
decision making that you can you can see them losing
a game their defense. Though I'm one hundred percent with you.

(56:37):
I think it's one of the greats. I listed this
earlier today on our other pod, because our actual full
series preview pod, because I was just so fascinated by
the line of just body bags that Oklahoma City has
left behind in this postseason, Desmond Bayne had a three
for twelve with four turnovers, A three for fourteen with

(56:58):
five turnovers, Jaron Jackson at two for thirteen with four points,
Jared Jackson at three for twelve, Jokics for three straight games,
went thirty three percent from the field eighteen percent from
three with more turnovers than assists. Julius Randall a two
for eleven with six points and one for seven with
five points. Like they have like straight up embarrassed some
of the better players in our league, and I think

(57:19):
they have the potential to do that again. Like we
didn't even talk about it, but like I think there's
a chance to Tyres Haliburton. We leave this series thinking
of him very differently because of the damage that this
team can do. Like, in my opinion, all time great
is something that you start throwing around when you win
multiple championships. But speaking strictly within the scope of one season,
I'd argue this since since like Kobe's last title in

(57:43):
twenty ten, Like, if you went from like twenty eleven
moving forward, it's the twenty seventeen Warriors, and then I
think it would be this team. I think they would
be the next team on that list. Like I think
they've been more dominant and more successful against tougher competition
than like the twenty thirteen eat. You know, like if
you really dig into it, like i'd argue, I'd probably

(58:05):
like if you're if you're asking me who i'd taken
a series, I'd probably take the twenty thirteen heat because
it's like Lebron and Dayne Wade. But like if you're
just strictly speaking of like what's happening within the season,
what did they accomplish. We've discussed this Western Conference as
being an absolute blood bath going into the season, and
guess what, it was an absolute blood bath. We talked

(58:25):
about there being seven legitimate contenders in the Western Conference,
and they've won it. They won the conference, and they
won it relatively easily. Obviously a little bit of a
threat from Denver. They've played some really good teams. I
think it's pretty undeniable that if they close this out,
they're one of the great single season champions. Obviously, you
got to sustain, and the NBA has a weird way

(58:47):
of just positioning new adversity and your path. Just ask
Celtics fans, like as they lose to in a series,
they were a minus eight hundred favorite. But yeah, like
i I've been so, I thought game I thought Game
four against Minnesota was the defining moment of this playoff
run in the sense that you have Shay putting together

(59:08):
probably the best individual game of his career in that
like he was fake that Minnesota completely shifted their scheme
and played a very similar type of like pack. The
paint forced him to make decisions and over the top
shots to what Oklahoma said he was doing to ant
and he had forty and ten assists in that same game.
J dub, the guy who's been consistently criticized as a

(59:29):
guy who doesn't show up, just was fucking awesome. And
then Chet Holmgren hitting huge catch and shoot threes, their
defense hold it like Game four against Minnesota to me
was like the kids growing up and them showing that
all of the demons that stood in their way they
were able to conquer and get the job done. And

(59:50):
I think they absolutely are one of those special teams.
And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they won the
title again next year. I mean, honestly, let me just
this will be my last little thing towards to ask you,
what do you if you, let's say Oklahoma City wins,
what do you think would be the preseason odds for
Oklahoma City to win the title next year?

Speaker 1 (01:00:11):
Plus one fifty plus two hundred. So here's my thing.
Is san Antonio getting y honest? If san Antonio gets Yannis,
I think they're an immediate title contender, just point blank.
I agree, straight up. If they get Yannis and like
some or if somebody else gets honest, like I'm I'm

(01:00:33):
willing to hear that out for sure, and I think
those odds would change in some way. But going without
knowing who that is, without knowing where Duran is going,
I think they open quite low. I would say in
terms of the odds, not quite like like to me,
it's like, you know Scotti Scheffler in golf right now,

(01:00:53):
you know somebody that like bets on golf, right Like
Scotti Scheffler has won like his last three tournaments, right
and I think we're looking at it's something like he
wins like once every like four times. He wants every
three or four times he plays right, so and like
with the way he's playing right now, like I kind

(01:01:13):
of think he should be like plus one hundred to
plus one fifty every single time that he takes the
course because it's just ridiculous, Like he's so far ahead
of everybody. It's like a tiger effect thing right now.
I kind of think that given that this is the
year before Oklahoma City gets expensive and there are gonna
be decisions that have to be made in the summer
of twenty twenty six, maybe even starting this year, where

(01:01:35):
they have to figure things out in order to get
ahead of it. But they also have like a million
draft picks to get ahead of it too, and they
do a pretty good job drafting. They're not like infallible,
like they will take Uzban Jangen Dylan Jones sometimes, but
like they're pretty damn good at drafting, right, so they're
really well equipped to keep this thing going. And really
the financial problems don't start next year, they start the

(01:01:56):
year after. So it's yeah, like they should be very
much the favorite going into next year. Old Like, even
if they lose the series, I think they should be
the favorite going into next year because Jalen and Ched
aren't getting worse. Guys, Like, those guys are gonna get better.
Ched Olgrin is like scratching the surface of how good
he's gonna be. He's nowhere near that level yet, is

(01:02:19):
the crazy thing. So yeah, to me, yeah, this team
is awesome. And by the way, like Jadub can we
like just like chill on the like, hey, is this
guy like a failure or whatever? Is this guy like
a guy who doesn't raise the occasion. I'm not saying
you did that obviously, but you know in the Minnesota
series twenty two points, seven rebounds, four assists, shooting forty

(01:02:43):
nine forty six eighty three. In the Memphis series, I
thought he was their best player. Scored over twenty points
every game, you know, shot twenty three five and five
on fifty four, twenty nine sixty like they didn't really
need him to go nuts, but he's still did it
most nights and the efficiency can go from time to time.

(01:03:03):
But like his ability to create shots and then he's
doing it also while being one of the fifteen best
defenders in the league too. It's crazy he is. I
continue to say this. We did a show on my podcast,
what like maybe a year and twenty year in two
months ago, year in three months ago, like the guys

(01:03:25):
that are like rising stars in the NBA, right, like
the guys that aren't getting talked about enough. And my
first pick was Jalen Williams because it's like, I do
not think people understand how hard it is to find
this skill set in a single player who can shoot,
create his own shot, defend at a high level, switch
against one through like four and a half, let's call it,

(01:03:46):
like these guys are impossible to find like he is.
This is like a Jimmy Butler. This is like this
era is coming Up's Jimmy Butler and he might get
one like when he's twenty three or twenty four years old.
Is where we're at, Like, yeah, he.

Speaker 2 (01:04:03):
Has the competitiveness too. There's just there's like there's like
a layer of competitiveness that really I think goes down
the roster with Oklahoma City. We were actually talking about
this on play back the other night, Like I would
argue that that's one of the most underrated basketball trades.
It's like how much of a how much do you
hate losing? Like how much are you willing to put
it on the line to prevent the loss? And he's
just one of those classic guys. I think it's so

(01:04:24):
funny that you said we literally landed on the exact
same number. We had a little exercise where we were like,
what what would be the championship odds for Oklahoma City
at open next year? And we both said the same
thing right around that one fifty plus one fifty range.
I I'm not as worried about the big picture costs
stuff because I think I think I think they're just
I think they're literally just going to try to use

(01:04:45):
the draft to find supplemental role player talent. Yeah, I
think that's what they're gonna do. I think they're gonna
I think they're gonna have their max guys, and I
think they're just gonna rotate through trusting their draft department.
I like, I don't think they're going to trade a
bunch of draft picks for their generations. Dorian Finney Smith.
You know what I mean, Like they're gonna for a
twenty million dollar role player. They're gonna be targeting smart
upperclassmen that have been playing in organized programs for great

(01:05:09):
coaches that they can trust to come in and play
ten to fifteen minutes in a playoff game. You know,
basically the case on Wallace types. Uh, Like they're gonna
be They're gonna be hunting those guys NonStop. And I
think they'll pivot off of expensive role players and they'll
trust their core, and I think they're here to stay,
and I think that is an excellent coach.

Speaker 1 (01:05:27):
You bring up like the competitiveness thing, and like the
basketball I qu thing, this is part of their process,
Like this is what they look for, Like this is
exactly what they're I've been talking about this for multiple
years now. They look for dribble, pass, shoot, defend, real
positional size, length, and competitiveness. Like those are the things

(01:05:48):
that if you have those boxes and you tick those boxes,
you can play for this team. If you can't, then
you're you know, not everybody's gonna tick every single one
of those boxes, but you need to be able to
like potentially get there at some point to be able
to tick that box. And you know, if you don't
hit a certain threshold in all of those categories, you
probably are not an Oklahoma City Thunder guy. And to me,

(01:06:11):
they were just so far ahead of it in terms
of the rest of the league where they knew that
these guys were the most valuable guys and they put
their stamp on it by going out and getting Alex
Caruso this summer through our tourist carness of this incompetence,
but like you know, they're always there to take advantage
of those front offices that maybe don't value a player

(01:06:33):
quite a quite enough and get the right value for them.

Speaker 2 (01:06:36):
So yeah, anybody, anybody could have traded for Drew Holiday,
you know, anybody gelt like these guys are a lot.
It's the it's the market inefficiency right now, Like, how
how how often in this playoff run did we see
a really good player? I thought Julius Randall was the
latest example in that in like Game four of the
Oklahoma City series, where like when things don't go their way,

(01:06:57):
they just kind of shut down, like there's a lot
of guys who are like that, Like it's it's like
a fight or flight response, and like you, when the
shit gets tough, do you have a dude who like
knuckles down and like really tries to just find a
way to impact winning one way or another. It's I
think it's I think it's such an important foundational basketball trade.
But Sam, I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to

(01:07:18):
come on the show. Tell everybody where they can find
your work.

Speaker 1 (01:07:22):
Go to the Game Theory podcast over on YouTube. We
just passed like forty thousand subscribers, so we're doing great
over there. We appreciate you guys immensely for coming over
and hitting that button. Go go to the Athletic Keep
Me Employed over there, where I write about the NBA
Draft as well the NBA Draft Guide, which is the big,
like one hundred and fifty thousand word thing I write

(01:07:43):
about all of the prospects in the draft that will
be forthcoming relatively soon. I don't want to put a
date on it because I don't want to jinx the
fact that if I put a date on it, things
could get hairy. But like could be as soon his
next week, let's say so. Once that goes live. Go

(01:08:04):
hit the subscribe button, go hit the you know, go
go subscribe to the New York Times and all that
stuff where I go work.

Speaker 2 (01:08:11):
So yeah, and guys, Sam and I talked before the show.
He will be coming on at some point later in
the month to he's I think he's the best guy
cover in the draft, and so we're as you guys know,
I basically completely ignore the draft until right after the finals,
and so although there's been a little bit more Cooper Flag,
you know, kind of motivation this year, but like we're
gonna have Sam on and we're gonna talk a lot

(01:08:32):
of NBA Draft stuff when we get later into the month. Sam, again,
thank you so much for the time. I will give
you a call sometime in the next week too, so
we can catch up and just see how you're doing
over there. But as always, we appreciate you guys for
supporting us and supporting the show. Make sure you guys
head over and subscribe to Sam's YouTube channel and his
work on the Athletic and we will see you guys
tomorrow for the top five storylines of the NBA Finals.