July 30, 2025 • 36 mins
Jason breaks down the next set of players in his summer NBA player rankings including Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo, Cleveland Cavaliers big Evan Mobley, and Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, Well, good to Hoops Tonight. Here
at the volume heavy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all of you
guys are having a great week so far. Got a
(00:21):
jam packshow for you guys today. We're continuing our player rankings.
We have three more players we're getting to today, number
twenty three, number twenty two, and number twenty one. You
guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribe to
Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter and underscore jcnlt so
you guys don't miss a show announcement. So forget about
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Hoops Tonight tell us a super helpful if you leave
(00:41):
a rating and a review on that front. Jackson is
doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram,
Facebook and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us there
for more content throughout the year. The last but not least,
keep dropping mail bag questions and the YouTube comments. We
talked about this after the first video, but our mail
bags over the course of the rest of the summer
are going to be more geared towards the player.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Your rankings.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Obviously, ask whatever questions you have, and if I see
a very interesting question that's not related to the player rankings,
we'll get into it. But this is all very subjective
and all very up for debate. As we talked about
in our first video, it's very little separating number five
from number fourteen on my list and number fifteen all
the way from the fortieth guy that I considered for
this list. There's a lot of room for argument there.
(01:24):
And so if you guys disagree with any of my placement,
a guy too high, a got too low, a guy
who missed the list who should have made it, a
guy who made the list who shouldn't have made it,
anything that you disagree with, right mail bag with the colon,
drop your kind of like counterpoint, keep it short, keep
it brief like elevator. Pitch for what you guys disagree with,
and we'll argue about those in our mail bags throughout
(01:45):
the rest of the summer.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Now it's gonna be a little tricky.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
This Friday's mail bag is just going to be reacting
to our first video because I'm going out of town.
I'm going to Alaska, and I'm going to be gone
for like ten days. So the first two Fridays will
just have the one mail bag this Friday that reacts
to the first video. But the rest of the list,
we have like five additional mail bags that will be
recording over the course of the list, where you guys
(02:09):
will have plenty of opportunity to argue about what you
disagree with, so make sure you guys get those into
the comments. So, without any further ado, let's talk some basketball.
Number twenty three Bam out of Baio, a guy who
was dropped from where he was last year in the
top twenty for me. His season in review, he played
in seventy eight games, averaged eighteen point one points per game.
(02:32):
That was his lowest since twenty twenty nine. Point six
rebounds per game, four point three assists per game is
highest since twenty twenty one, two point zero stocks per
game is one point three steals per game last year
was the second highest total of his career. Now his
efficiency is where things are going to get pretty interesting,
and I have a lot of different stuff I want
to get into with Bam here. So he was just
(02:54):
forty nine percent from the field last year. That was
the lowest mark of his career to this point now.
Part of it was the increase in his three point volume.
People are going to shoot lower percentages on threes. That's
going to affect your field goal percentage. He had never
taken more than one three point attempts per game in
the first several seasons of his career. Last year was
the first year that he attempted over one. He attempted
(03:15):
almost three threes per game, so that obviously plays a
certain role in the drop in his field goal percentage,
But he also shot poorly on twos. He shot fifty
two percent on twos, which is his lowest mark since
his rookie season. He's had three straight years from twenty
twenty to twenty twenty two in the past where he
averaged the same points per game eighteen points per game,
(03:39):
but shot fifty seven percent on twos over the course
of those three seasons, so substantially lower this year than
levels he's reached previously in his career. He's flat out
regressing as a shot maker inside the arc. He shot
below forty percent on floaters and hooks last year, which
(04:00):
is brutal for his position at the center position when
you do so much work rolling out of ball screens,
your ability to short range shot make, either beating switches
with quick quick hook shots or catching on the roll
and spinning into a quick hook, or making floaters on
the role. Those are vitally important parts of shot making
at the center position, and he was below forty percent
(04:21):
on them last year. He used to just be better
at it. He's fifty two percent on floaters and hooks
in twenty twenty one, fifty five percent on floaters and
hooks in twenty twenty two. So, for whatever reason, and
I really don't have an explanation for it, he just
hasn't been able to recreate what he did in years
(04:42):
past and elevate from there to that next level. It
kind of came to the surface, if you guys remember
as an issue for Bam during the twenty twenty three
finals in the series against Denver, he was consistently getting
quality short range looks, layups a little bit further away
from the rim, short hooks, floaters, little bank shots. He
(05:05):
was getting all of these looks and he just wasn't
making them against Denver, and he was becoming a problem
because they were the kind of shots that were open
in their offense. Often his touch it's not just on
hooks and floaters. Either on layups, it's been an issue.
He shot just fifty percent last year on layups. That's
(05:25):
way below where his peers are at the center position
again Bam fifty percent, Anthony Davis sixty percent, Carl Anthony
Towns fifty eight percent, if he eats the Zubats fifty
seven percent, nikolea Jokic sixty seven percent. You guys get
the point. Compared to his peers, he really struggles on
(05:46):
short range shot making layups, hooks, floaters, that sort of thing,
and that has ended up being an issue for him
as he's failed to kind of take that next step
as an offensive player. There was kind of like this
inflection point for Bam in right around that twenty twenty
two to twenty twenty three phase when the Heat made
those back to back conference finals runs in their NBA
(06:06):
Finals run, where it kind of felt like he was
either going to improve as a finisher and become like
one of those legit second tier stars like Anthony Davis,
or he was gonna plateau, and instead he's kind of regressed.
This is actually crazy, even with the influx of his
three point shooting, which is legitimate, like he had never
attempted more than one three per game. He attempted almost
(06:29):
three three three pointers per game this year, and he
made thirty six percent of him, which is very respectable
as a three point shooter. But even with that influx
of like a more efficient shot profile, he posted a
true shooting percentage of just fifty six percent last year,
which was the lowest mark of his entire career. This
(06:50):
is a big part of how he slipped out of
the top twenty for me, despite the fact that Tyrese
Haliburt and Damian Lillard Jason Tatum have dropped out of
the list entirely, which should have bolstered him against that.
But I dropped him because he's just regressing as an
offensive player and it's preventing the Heat from getting to
their ultimate goals in the postseason. The lack of shot
(07:13):
making for Bam is especially frustrating because of how amazing
he is at everything else, including passing out of the
center position. When it comes to that part of offense,
being that five out dribble handoff folkrum, going side to side,
making reeds at a two million game, being the guy
that ties everything together for that offense, he's actually great
(07:33):
at that there are only four centers in the entire
NBA who meet the following criteria at least twenty five
minutes per game, so a guy who plays a lot,
a usage rate of at least twenty percent, so guy
who has the ball a lot, and an assistant turnover
ratio of at least two to one. There's four guys
in the entire NBA at the center position that meet
(07:56):
those criteria, and the other three guys are not very
athletic Demonisibonis, Nicola Vucevich. Those guys are right around two
to one, and then Yokich, who's better than three to one,
who obviously is kind of the anomaly, but those are
like skill focused centers who are great playmakers. And then
it's Bam. Bam is the fourth guy on that list.
Another way to put it is like this, Bam is
(08:19):
the only truly athletic center in the NBA who can
playmake at that elite like at that elite level of
efficiency and volume or he's not turning the ball over.
He's top five and assists per game among centers. He's
the only guy who brings that athleticism in that like
refined playmaking at that center position in the entire league.
(08:43):
You combine that with his unbelievable defensive versatility, which we're
about to get more into in a minute, and you
have a player that had a truly sky high potential,
like top tier superstar potential, if he could have just
added reliable shot making. That's why I've been so keyed
in on that piece of his game over the last
few years, and it just kind of feels like a
(09:04):
missed opportunity. He's regressing when it should be something that
he's improving on. But again, he's an excellent playmaker. He's
fifth and assists per game among centers overall. We talked
about that modern dribble handoff fulkrum in the NBA, like
when you have guys that can score and pass out
of action guards having a big who can flow from
side to side, meaning like run that first action. Oh
(09:24):
it doesn't work. Quick, make yourself available at the top
of the key, catch turn, and go to the other
side of the floor dribble handoff while always being able
to make the reads out of it, like, oh, they're
overplaying me. I'm gonna fake the dribble handoff and go
to the rim or setting the good screens that free
the guys up passing to guards as they backcut or
if they get top locked and are forced to backcut.
The playmaking that you do out of that. There's all
of this stuff that in terms of decision making and
(09:47):
playmaking you need from the center position in order to
run five out offense in the modern NBA, and offense
that the Heat run more than many teams in the NBA.
BAM's great at that. And then again the defensive end
of the floors where Bam really separates himself. Bam didn't
have his best defensive season last year. Zero point seven
(10:09):
blocks per game were the lowest since his rookie since
his rookie year in the NBA. Now context there, he's
playing with more two big looks. That's going to put
him in some different situations playing alongside Killo where and
I generally think it was the least motivated he's been
as a defender since he came into the league. As
the Heat were just so far away from achieving their
postseason goals, he finished outside of the top five and
(10:31):
Defensive Player of the Year voting for the first time
since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
I do still believe in Bam as an apex defender
in this league. I think that he will continue to
operate closer to that top five defensive player of the
year type of caliber player looking forward in his career,
I look at last year as more of like an outlier.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
The big differentiator for.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Bam is that he's essentially a hybrid between a traditional
rim protecting bit and kind of like a legitimate wing
in terms of his ability to move his feet on
the perimeter. He brings the best scheme versatility defensively out
of any center in the league, aside from maybe Victor Wembanyama.
I think he's the best switching center in the league, Bam.
(11:17):
There was a time when I thought it was Anthony Davis,
and you could argue Ad is still maybe a better
defender all around because of how good he is at
the rim. But Ad put on a bunch of weight
and hasn't been able to move his feet on the
perimeter as well. It hasn't been as good defending switches.
Bam is legitimately awesome switching out onto the perimeter. One
of the unique things he does that many other big
struggle with. We're gonna talk about this when we get
to Evan Mobley. But one of the things that like
(11:39):
Evan Mobley struggles with is when he gets switched onto
quicker guards, he gives too much space and those guys
get really comfortable with their pull up three point shooting.
Evan got lit on fire on pull up threes in
ISOs this year, kind of prevented him from being as
good of an ISO big as as he could have been,
as good of a switching big as he could have been. Bam,
You'll see him like two feet out outside the three
(12:00):
point line picking up pull up shooters way out on
the perimeter. He's way more active with his hands to
disrupt the rhythm and flow of pull up shooters so
they can't comfortably settle into pull up jump shots, while
also having the speed laterally and the recovery athleticism to
deal with quickness getting past him. He's unbelievable defending on switches.
(12:22):
Even last year and what everyone considers to be a
down year, he was still amazing on the perimeter and switches. Statistically,
there were one hundred and fifty one players in the
NBA last year who defended at least fifty ISOs. Bam
Allouja zero point six to two points per possession in
ISO that ranked third on that list, third out of
(12:43):
one hundred and fifty one players. He does this while
also being very good in traditional coverages. He gets up
to the level of screens quickly and at the level
coverages and can disrupt pull up shooters. He can contest
in the mid range. He can protect the rim. He
obviously is in his protecting the rim as some of
the taller, longer centers in the NBA, but he's good
(13:04):
enough at it in conjunction with.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Being one of those truly elite.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Top tier switching defenders that he makes life very easy
for Eric Spolsterras schematically because they can build out any
defensive scheme that they want. Bam can do literally anything
you ask him to do. One of the most versatile
defensive foundations in the game. Bam can be a frustrating player,
and his lack of developing upside has certainly prevented Miami
(13:31):
from reaching their ultimate goals, and his regression there is,
like like I said, downright frustrating, especially if you're a
fan of Bam in the heat. But you can't do
a whole lot better in the modern NBA than a
big man who can legitimately anchor any defensive coverage at
a Defensive Player of the Year level, giving you an
enormous amount of flexibility from opponent to ponent, both in
(13:53):
the regular season and in the playoffs, while also being
a legitimately good dribble handoff fokram on offense that can
kind of get guys set up in the right spot. Now,
his lack of touch, especially around the rim, prevents him
from reaching that second tier of superstars in the NBA,
but his overall value is still enough to put him
(14:13):
at twenty three on this year's list. All right, number
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dkang dot co slash audio. Last season in review for
Evan played seventy one games. Very award heavy season for Evan.
(16:05):
He won Defensive Player of the Year. He was First
Team All Defense, second Team All NBA, made the All
Star Game, and was tenth in MVP voting. It's a
hell of a breakout season for the young star. His
averages he averaged nineteen points, nine rebounds, and three assists
two point five stocks per game. His efficiency used fifty
(16:28):
six percent from the field, sixty two percent on twos.
He doesn't have amazing touch on short twos, like forty
percent on floaters and hooks fifty three percent on layups.
Those marks are only slightly ahead of where bam Adebayo was,
but he had one hundred and ninety four dunks last year.
Bam only had one hundred and forty. Now, some of
(16:48):
that is that Evan Mobley played with better ball handlers,
but some of it is also that Evan Mobley is
a better vertical spacer and that was something that allowed
him to be way more efficient on twos than bam
Adebio was last year. He also shot thirty seven percent
from three on three point two attempts per game last
year in the regular season, more than double the attempts
(17:08):
of any previous season in his career, and he shot
well in the postseason. He shot forty five percent from
three in the postseason on four attempts per game, so
the jump shot feels real. He's legitimately a substantially better
jump shooter than bam Ade Bio. He was sixty percent
in effective field goal percentage and a career high sixty
three percent in true shooting, seven percentage points ahead of
(17:32):
where bam Adebayo was last year. Evan Mobley, in my opinion,
has become flatly a better offensive player than bam was
or is. The perimeter jump shot is more reliable. He's
added some of the ability to run action. I do
think bam is a better like five out dribble handoff fulkrum,
but Evan Mobley has closed the gap in terms of
offensive initiation with some of his ability to run offense,
(17:55):
to run inverted action, and his superior jump shooting and
his vertical spacing, like we talked about earlier, it made
Evan Mobley a very dynamic roleman. Evan Mobley scored one
point one seven points per roleman possession last year compared
to just zero point nine seven for bam Ata Bio,
so twenty points better per one hundred roll man possessions.
(18:16):
And again, some of that is the gap in ball handling,
but most of it is just that Mobley has become
a better offensive player. Evan Mobley shot thirty eight percent
on pick and pop three's last year. Bam shot twenty
three percent on pick and pop three, So three is
when he was slipping out of ball screens. Those are
generally wide open regardless of who the ball handler is.
(18:37):
So like that, again, there is an obvious ball handling
gap between those two teams, but I think there's an
obvious gap in offensive refinement between Evan Mobley and Bamadabayo
as well. Here's some play type data for Evan Mobley.
He's a hyper efficient play finisher. One point one to
seven points per roleman possession. That's sixty six percentiles of
(18:57):
pretty far above average.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
One point five.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Five to nine points possession on cuts that's in the
ninety second percentile. That's that awesome vertical spacing and his
good hands around the basket, very good in transition, very
good in offensive rebound situations.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
In action.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
If you go back two years to twenty twenty four,
Evan Mobley ran just one hundred and fifty three pick
and rolls, ISOs and post ups including passes. Last year
that skyrocketed up to three hundred and thirty nine, more
than double Now. The efficiency was only okay, zero point
nine to one points possession including passes on all three
play types combined. Again not excellent, but it was his
(19:33):
first season as like a high volume creator, and that's
really not bad. He was specifically successful in inverted ball
screen situations, meaning when he was handling the ball in
either Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland or one of the
shooters like Sam Merrill or Max Strew's would come up
screen for him and then slip out to the three
point line. It kind of created some very simple reads
for him, like if the guards screened and the guard's
(19:56):
man didn't help, he would just turn the corner and
go downhill and he'd either get all the way to
the rim or he'd make a kick if someone stepped
over to help. It was a pretty simple set of reads.
If the guard lingered in a hedge, then the shooter
would slip out free and he would just pitch it
back to the shooter as he got to the three
point line. It was a very simple kind of order
of operations for Evan Mobley that allowed him to be
effective and one of the hardest actions to guard in
(20:19):
the NBA. That kind of like ghost screen action with
a bigger ball handler involved. When he passed out of
inverted ball screens. The Calves got one point zero six
points per possession last year, which is very good. I
also thought Mobley played well in the playoffs. His jump
shot was going in at a higher clip than the
(20:39):
regular season. He was making his hook shot, his shot
creation was successful. He ran fifteen of those inverted ball
screens in the playoffs and got nineteen points. That's great.
That's a great number. He ran fourteen post ups in
ISOs for thirteen points, which is not amazing, but it's
above his regular season efficiency. I thought the Caves held
up well on the offensive glass in that series, where
in us past that was something that Evan Mobley and
(21:01):
Jared Allen both had struggled with. I thought last year
was just a monumental step forward in Evan Mobley's development
as a basketball player.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Now.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
On the defensive end, I actually think Evan Mobley is
a tiny bit overrated. I would not have given him
Defensive Player of the Year last year. I do believe
that Evan Mobley is a very very good defender, but
for instance, I do think that bam Adebayo is a
better defensive player than Evan Mobley. I do not view
Evan Mobley in the conversation for best defenders in basketball. Again,
(21:34):
a big part of it is he wasn't very good
on switches. In that list of one hundred and fifty
one players who defended at least fifty ISOs that Bam
was third place on, Evan Mobley ranked sixty sixth on
that list. He allowed twenty seven more points per one
hundred ISOs than bam Adebio did. And his weakness, again,
(21:56):
we talked about it a little bit earlier when we
were talking about Bam. Bam was picking up pull up
shooters outside the three point line and stunting at the ball,
which allowed him to prevent himself from allowing easy pull
up jump shots over the top. Evan was consistently back
on his heels further back behind the three point line,
(22:17):
and so he contained the ball well. Excuse me, he
contained the ball well, but he gave up a lot
of easy pull up three point shots on his heels
in those ISO situations. He does have a good amount
of scheme versatility. It's worth mentioning. He does a lot
of work and two big looks as like a low
(22:37):
man on the back line. He can do a decent
job in switches. Again, he's not bad at it. He's
just not nearly as good as some of the other
bigs in the league because of him being kind of
passive and on his heels, and he does protect the
rim reasonably well. Evan Mobley getting the Defensive Player of
the Year award again, I disagreed with that. I thought
that had more to do with the Cavs just winning
(22:58):
a shit ton of games and being kind of like
an award geared around team success. I do still believe
Evan Mobley is an excellent defender overall, even if I
don't necessarily believe he was deserving of the accolades that
he got last year on the defensive end. The best
way for me to explain how I landed with Bam
at twenty three and Evan Mobley at twenty two is
(23:19):
to say that I believe Evan Mobley is the better
offensive player, and I believe Bam is the better defensive player.
But I believe the gap between how good Evan Mobley
is on offense and how good BAM is on offense
is bigger than the gap between how good BAM is
on defense and Evan Mobley is on defense.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
I think that gap is smaller, and no matter.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
What, it's a really impressive step forward for Evan Mobley
in his development. The next step it's going to be
improving as a switch defender and continuing to improve overall
as an offensive initiator and as a three point shooter.
All of this lands Evan at twenty two in this
year's rankings. All Right, number twenty one. Number twenty one
(24:04):
in this year's player rankings is Jalen Brown. Last season
interview for Jalen, he played sixty three games. That was
his lowis in twenty twenty one. He was dealing with
the knee issue throughout the year, which is going to
be a big part of the way we framed things
for Jalen Brown. In this particular segment, he averaged twenty
two points per game. That was his lowis in twenty
twenty six rebounds four point five assists, which was by
(24:27):
far a career high from him. The increase in assists
mainly stemmed from Jalen becoming a much more willing passer
out of his one on one situations, specifically ISO's and
post ups. For example, in the twenty twenty four season,
when he passed out of iso or passed out of
post ups, he generated just zero point ninety five points
(24:49):
per possession. In the twenty twenty five season, he passed
out of ISOs and post ups about a time and
a half as frequently, so he did it a lot
more and he generated one point three zero points per
possession when he passed out of those situations. The specific
improvement that I noticed the most on tape was him
(25:11):
passing out of the post. He did a lot better
job this year when he would get in the post
of just kind of probing until that second defender would
come in, making the appropriate kickout passes on time on
target to shooters. The Celtics did shoot super well on
his post kickouts this year, but there was also a
market improvement in the quality of the threes that he
(25:31):
was generating, and I tend to think those things are associated.
So obviously a little bit of shooting luck, but a
lot of shot quality as well. He generated thirty two
made threes out of post ups for his teammates in
just sixty three games this year. Last year, in seventy games,
he generated just twenty. That increase in overall playmaking ability
(25:54):
from Jalen made up for some of what was a
pretty down year for Jalen Brown as a shooter. But
I want to get into some of the specific reasons why,
because it's very fascinating. First of all, let's just get
through the numbers. He was forty six percent from the field.
That's the lowest since his rookie year. He was fifty
three percent on twos, lowest since his second year in
the league, thirty two percent from three, lowest since his
(26:17):
rookie year. Fifty two percent in effective field goal percentage.
Excuse me the thirty two percent from three that was
the lowest of his entire career. Fifty two percent in
effective field goal percentage, lowest since his rookie year. Fifty
six percent in true shooting percentage, lowest since twenty nineteen.
So why did efficiency dip the way that it did
this year. I think it mostly had to do with
(26:40):
his knee. There's this thing that I talk about a
lot in this show called energy transfer. It's a concept
for jump shooting in general, shot making in basketball, essentially,
like if you make a move to get to anywhere
on the floor, or even if you're just in a
catch and shoot situation, at the end of that sequence,
you are transferring energy from your feet up through your knees,
(27:01):
up through your hips, up through your shoulder, elbow, four arm,
all the way through the wrist on the snap of
the snap of the jump shot right. And if you
get less power, then you usually get out of one
part of that system. The entire calibration of it gets
thrown off. I thought it was evidenced by a couple
(27:23):
of key areas in his shooting efficiency. Take a look
at this. His jump shooting was down mostly across the board,
like overall one point zero four points per shot on
jump shots in twenty twenty four, zero point nine to
two points per shot in twenty twenty five, so twelve
points per one hundred jump shots. Worse overall on jump
shots off the dribble zero point eighty five points per
(27:47):
shot last year. The year before one point zero zero
points per shot, so fifteen points per one hundred off
the dribble jump shots, worse contested catch and shoots twenty
twenty four one point zero four, twenty two twenty five
zero point nine to eight six per one hundred worse, right,
But in wide open catch and shoot shooting he was
(28:07):
actually up year over year. He was one point one four,
twenty twenty four, one point one point eight, and twenty
twenty five. Now, before we dig into why that's interesting,
let's talk about his rim finishing two. In twenty twenty four,
he got to the rim seven point three times per
game and shot sixty two percent there. According to Synergy
(28:27):
twenty twenty five, just six point seven attempts per game
and just sixty percent at the rim, So a little
bit worse in both volume and efficiency. So what does
it tell us that Jalen has improved as a playmaker
and improved as a wide open catch and shoot guy
year over year, but that he struggled on contested jump
(28:49):
shots off the dribble jump shots and his rim volume
in efficiency both dropped year over year. It sounds to
me like the game continues to slow down for him
and his skill set is continuing to refine, but that
he was obviously dealing with the struggle to get lift
and separation, which is going to make a lot of
(29:11):
sense for a guy who's dealing with the issues. What
are the shots that are going to require extra oomph
in your lower body in that energy transfer, contested catch
and shoot, jump shots, shooting off the dribble and out
of footwork and getting to and finishing at the rim,
That's where he saw the drop off. Now, it's at
(29:33):
least worth mentioning that he's about to turn twenty nine
years old and he has a ton of miles on
his body relative to most NBA players his age. For perspective,
he's played forty five hundred playoff minutes. Lebron James has
played twelve thousand. So the way to look at it
is Jalen Brown already at just age twenty eight, has
(29:57):
played thirty eight percent of the playoff off minutes that
Lebron James has played, and he's well into his forties now.
So Jalen's dip in athleticism and the associated struggles, as
well as the reality of his age and the amount
of mileage on his body that's a big part of
how he slipped a little bit down the list For
me this year, I'll be curious to see if he's
(30:19):
able to overcome that knee issue and get back to
one hundred percent next year, or if it's something that
lingers and that can become a problem as things continue
throughout his career. Next year will be our first opportunity
to see Jalen Brown in a truly featured primary shot
creator role. Last year, Jalen's volume was sizable, especially in
(30:40):
one on one situations. He ran over five hundred pick
and roles and excuse me, over five hundred post ups
and ISOs, but his overall shot creation volume is still
low relative to his peers at the top of the league.
He was good, though, one point zero one points per
possession and pick and roll including including passes on four
hundred and fifty three reps.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
That's slightly above average.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
One point per ISO including passes on pretty high volume
three hundred and two reps that was the thirteenth most
in the entire NBA efficiency efficiency for that, once again
slightly above average. He was one point two eight points
per possession in post ups including passes, which is excellent.
That ranked number one. Jalen Brown was number one out
of the eighteen players to run at least two hundred
(31:24):
post ups last year. Now, again, some of that is
influenced by the fact that the Celtics shot super well
on his kickouts. I think they shot like sixty percent
on his kickout threes out of post ups. But it's
worth mentioning again, when I looked at the film, the
kickouts were happening more frequently and he was generating better
shots than he did in previous years. So some of
it was shooting variants, some of it was also the
(31:45):
quality of shots he was generating. I expect Jalen Brown
to continue to thrive at volume in ISO and post
up situations. They tend to present the simplest reads in
a four out one in system. So, for instance, if
you're on a cleared side post up for Jalen Brown,
very easy reads for him. If you put him on
the left block and he's got the ball in his
right hand, you double from the top. It's an easy
(32:07):
kick out up to the wing for a three point shot.
You double off the opposite wing. He can rifle that
pass to the opposite wing. I've seen him make that
specific pass. Many times they could get a little tougher
when they load up and make the weak side corner available,
but Jalen will is typically pretty good at getting deeper
into the paint making the kickouts. They're easier reads ISO,
same sort of thing, cleared side ISO exact same reads
(32:28):
we just covered wing ISOs in four out one in.
It's pretty simple. If the defender's funneling you towards the
baseline and you drive. If you drive and they don't
help off the strong side corner, you're gonna face help
off of the weak side corner if they rotate down
the reads to the wing. If they don't the reads
to the corner, it's a pretty simple set of reads
out of an ISO. If you do get to the middle,
(32:48):
if they pinch down from the nail, you pinch up
to you pitch it out to the wing. If they
stay glued to the wing and you get past that guy,
they're probably gonna help off the corner.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
You make the kick to the corner.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
It's like those one on one situations present that I
think Jalen Brown can handle really well.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So increasing his volume.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Because he's the primary guy, he's just gonna get into
a better rhythm, and it'll make him even better at
making those basic reads. I think he's gonna be fine
in ISO and post up situations.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Whether or not Jalen Brown has a truly great season
leading the Celtics will come down to his work and
pick and roll. That is not a skill set that
comes naturally to Jalen Brown. When he has to read
lots of moving parts, navigating a defender behind him and
in front of him, looking off defenders some of the
more complex help and recover situations that you see in
(33:39):
pick and roll, tougher angles, tougher passing reads, that's where
it can get tough for him. I do think it's
a coverage he's gonna see quite a lot this year too,
especially since he'll be surrounded by less talent. Teams will
switch less against the Celtics, there will be more loaded
up pick and roll traditional coverages. My guess is that
(33:59):
Jalen Brown struggle here. I think we'll see a pretty
high turnover rate from him this year. I think his
efficiency in pick and roll per per possession including passes
will flirt with a point and maybe dip below a point.
But if he can prove me wrong here. He does
have the potential to have a special offensive season, especially
if he can get his knee back to one hundred percent.
(34:20):
But my guess is it's going to be really nice
in ice in post up situations about that, he'll struggle
in pick and roll, and then overall it'll be kind
of a mixed bag from him this year. On defense,
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jalen Brown.
I think he's just one of the absolute apex perimeter
defenders in the league when he really locks in there,
certainly in the top tier. He's just such an amazing
(34:43):
weapon to have on a roster. He even brings the
switch ability that gave Boston the championship ceiling they had
in the past. We talk so much about Jason Tatum
and his ability to guard centers and how that made
things work because they could switch. Well, that only works
that the guy that's guarding the guard can also switch
on to center, which Jalen Brown could effectively do. Obviously,
(35:04):
this year will be different, and that you probably have
way too much offensive responsibility to be that apex defender
while also doing everything he needs to do on offense.
But it's still an important part of his skill set
that we have to factor in when we're considering a
list like this. Jalen Brown's dropped a bit on this
list as his body has started to let him down
a bit in the playoffs, especially, he shot very poorly
(35:27):
on long jump shots, very poorly at the rim. He
was just fifty five percent at the RAM in the postseason.
But again, as an Apex perimeter defender and a bona
fide secondary shot creator in this league, I think he's
firmly entrenched in the top twenty five. I have him
at spot number twenty one this year. All Right, guys,
This's all I have for today is always to sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting and supporting the show. Remember
(35:48):
to get your mailbag questions in. It won't be for
a couple of fridays that we get to this particular
episode in our mail bags, just because I'm going out
of town to Alaska. But I do plan on going
through all the videos and finding all of the arguments
for our mailbags. So if you disagree with any of
the rankings in any way, shape or form, give a
quick elevator pitch and the YouTube comments with as a
(36:08):
mailbag question, and we'll get to them in our mail
bags throughout the remainder of the list. Again, as always,
I appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
Now I'll see you guys next time.
The volume. All right, Well, good to Hoops Tonight. Here
at the volume heavy Wednesday, everybody. Hope all of you
guys are having a great week so far. Got a
(00:21):
jam packshow for you guys today. We're continuing our player rankings.
We have three more players we're getting to today, number
twenty three, number twenty two, and number twenty one. You
guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribe to
Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter and underscore jcnlt so
you guys don't miss a show announcement. So forget about
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Hoops Tonight tell us a super helpful if you leave
(00:41):
a rating and a review on that front. Jackson is
doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram,
Facebook and TikTok. Make sure you guys follow us there
for more content throughout the year. The last but not least,
keep dropping mail bag questions and the YouTube comments. We
talked about this after the first video, but our mail
bags over the course of the rest of the summer
are going to be more geared towards the player.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Your rankings.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Obviously, ask whatever questions you have, and if I see
a very interesting question that's not related to the player rankings,
we'll get into it. But this is all very subjective
and all very up for debate. As we talked about
in our first video, it's very little separating number five
from number fourteen on my list and number fifteen all
the way from the fortieth guy that I considered for
this list. There's a lot of room for argument there.
(01:24):
And so if you guys disagree with any of my placement,
a guy too high, a got too low, a guy
who missed the list who should have made it, a
guy who made the list who shouldn't have made it,
anything that you disagree with, right mail bag with the colon,
drop your kind of like counterpoint, keep it short, keep
it brief like elevator. Pitch for what you guys disagree with,
and we'll argue about those in our mail bags throughout
(01:45):
the rest of the summer.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Now it's gonna be a little tricky.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
This Friday's mail bag is just going to be reacting
to our first video because I'm going out of town.
I'm going to Alaska, and I'm going to be gone
for like ten days. So the first two Fridays will
just have the one mail bag this Friday that reacts
to the first video. But the rest of the list,
we have like five additional mail bags that will be
recording over the course of the list, where you guys
(02:09):
will have plenty of opportunity to argue about what you
disagree with, so make sure you guys get those into
the comments. So, without any further ado, let's talk some basketball.
Number twenty three Bam out of Baio, a guy who
was dropped from where he was last year in the
top twenty for me. His season in review, he played
in seventy eight games, averaged eighteen point one points per game.
(02:32):
That was his lowest since twenty twenty nine. Point six
rebounds per game, four point three assists per game is
highest since twenty twenty one, two point zero stocks per
game is one point three steals per game last year
was the second highest total of his career. Now his
efficiency is where things are going to get pretty interesting,
and I have a lot of different stuff I want
to get into with Bam here. So he was just
(02:54):
forty nine percent from the field last year. That was
the lowest mark of his career to this point now.
Part of it was the increase in his three point volume.
People are going to shoot lower percentages on threes. That's
going to affect your field goal percentage. He had never
taken more than one three point attempts per game in
the first several seasons of his career. Last year was
the first year that he attempted over one. He attempted
(03:15):
almost three threes per game, so that obviously plays a
certain role in the drop in his field goal percentage,
But he also shot poorly on twos. He shot fifty
two percent on twos, which is his lowest mark since
his rookie season. He's had three straight years from twenty
twenty to twenty twenty two in the past where he
averaged the same points per game eighteen points per game,
(03:39):
but shot fifty seven percent on twos over the course
of those three seasons, so substantially lower this year than
levels he's reached previously in his career. He's flat out
regressing as a shot maker inside the arc. He shot
below forty percent on floaters and hooks last year, which
(04:00):
is brutal for his position at the center position when
you do so much work rolling out of ball screens,
your ability to short range shot make, either beating switches
with quick quick hook shots or catching on the roll
and spinning into a quick hook, or making floaters on
the role. Those are vitally important parts of shot making
at the center position, and he was below forty percent
(04:21):
on them last year. He used to just be better
at it. He's fifty two percent on floaters and hooks
in twenty twenty one, fifty five percent on floaters and
hooks in twenty twenty two. So, for whatever reason, and
I really don't have an explanation for it, he just
hasn't been able to recreate what he did in years
(04:42):
past and elevate from there to that next level. It
kind of came to the surface, if you guys remember
as an issue for Bam during the twenty twenty three
finals in the series against Denver, he was consistently getting
quality short range looks, layups a little bit further away
from the rim, short hooks, floaters, little bank shots. He
(05:05):
was getting all of these looks and he just wasn't
making them against Denver, and he was becoming a problem
because they were the kind of shots that were open
in their offense. Often his touch it's not just on
hooks and floaters. Either on layups, it's been an issue.
He shot just fifty percent last year on layups. That's
(05:25):
way below where his peers are at the center position
again Bam fifty percent, Anthony Davis sixty percent, Carl Anthony
Towns fifty eight percent, if he eats the Zubats fifty
seven percent, nikolea Jokic sixty seven percent. You guys get
the point. Compared to his peers, he really struggles on
(05:46):
short range shot making layups, hooks, floaters, that sort of thing,
and that has ended up being an issue for him
as he's failed to kind of take that next step
as an offensive player. There was kind of like this
inflection point for Bam in right around that twenty twenty
two to twenty twenty three phase when the Heat made
those back to back conference finals runs in their NBA
(06:06):
Finals run, where it kind of felt like he was
either going to improve as a finisher and become like
one of those legit second tier stars like Anthony Davis,
or he was gonna plateau, and instead he's kind of regressed.
This is actually crazy, even with the influx of his
three point shooting, which is legitimate, like he had never
attempted more than one three per game. He attempted almost
(06:29):
three three three pointers per game this year, and he
made thirty six percent of him, which is very respectable
as a three point shooter. But even with that influx
of like a more efficient shot profile, he posted a
true shooting percentage of just fifty six percent last year,
which was the lowest mark of his entire career. This
(06:50):
is a big part of how he slipped out of
the top twenty for me, despite the fact that Tyrese
Haliburt and Damian Lillard Jason Tatum have dropped out of
the list entirely, which should have bolstered him against that.
But I dropped him because he's just regressing as an
offensive player and it's preventing the Heat from getting to
their ultimate goals in the postseason. The lack of shot
(07:13):
making for Bam is especially frustrating because of how amazing
he is at everything else, including passing out of the
center position. When it comes to that part of offense,
being that five out dribble handoff folkrum, going side to side,
making reeds at a two million game, being the guy
that ties everything together for that offense, he's actually great
(07:33):
at that there are only four centers in the entire
NBA who meet the following criteria at least twenty five
minutes per game, so a guy who plays a lot,
a usage rate of at least twenty percent, so guy
who has the ball a lot, and an assistant turnover
ratio of at least two to one. There's four guys
in the entire NBA at the center position that meet
(07:56):
those criteria, and the other three guys are not very
athletic Demonisibonis, Nicola Vucevich. Those guys are right around two
to one, and then Yokich, who's better than three to one,
who obviously is kind of the anomaly, but those are
like skill focused centers who are great playmakers. And then
it's Bam. Bam is the fourth guy on that list.
Another way to put it is like this, Bam is
(08:19):
the only truly athletic center in the NBA who can
playmake at that elite like at that elite level of
efficiency and volume or he's not turning the ball over.
He's top five and assists per game among centers. He's
the only guy who brings that athleticism in that like
refined playmaking at that center position in the entire league.
(08:43):
You combine that with his unbelievable defensive versatility, which we're
about to get more into in a minute, and you
have a player that had a truly sky high potential,
like top tier superstar potential, if he could have just
added reliable shot making. That's why I've been so keyed
in on that piece of his game over the last
few years, and it just kind of feels like a
(09:04):
missed opportunity. He's regressing when it should be something that
he's improving on. But again, he's an excellent playmaker. He's
fifth and assists per game among centers overall. We talked
about that modern dribble handoff fulkrum in the NBA, like
when you have guys that can score and pass out
of action guards having a big who can flow from
side to side, meaning like run that first action. Oh
(09:24):
it doesn't work. Quick, make yourself available at the top
of the key, catch turn, and go to the other
side of the floor dribble handoff while always being able
to make the reads out of it, like, oh, they're
overplaying me. I'm gonna fake the dribble handoff and go
to the rim or setting the good screens that free
the guys up passing to guards as they backcut or
if they get top locked and are forced to backcut.
The playmaking that you do out of that. There's all
of this stuff that in terms of decision making and
(09:47):
playmaking you need from the center position in order to
run five out offense in the modern NBA, and offense
that the Heat run more than many teams in the NBA.
BAM's great at that. And then again the defensive end
of the floors where Bam really separates himself. Bam didn't
have his best defensive season last year. Zero point seven
(10:09):
blocks per game were the lowest since his rookie since
his rookie year in the NBA. Now context there, he's
playing with more two big looks. That's going to put
him in some different situations playing alongside Killo where and
I generally think it was the least motivated he's been
as a defender since he came into the league. As
the Heat were just so far away from achieving their
postseason goals, he finished outside of the top five and
(10:31):
Defensive Player of the Year voting for the first time
since twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
I do still believe in Bam as an apex defender
in this league. I think that he will continue to
operate closer to that top five defensive player of the
year type of caliber player looking forward in his career,
I look at last year as more of like an outlier.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
The big differentiator for.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
Bam is that he's essentially a hybrid between a traditional
rim protecting bit and kind of like a legitimate wing
in terms of his ability to move his feet on
the perimeter. He brings the best scheme versatility defensively out
of any center in the league, aside from maybe Victor Wembanyama.
I think he's the best switching center in the league, Bam.
(11:17):
There was a time when I thought it was Anthony Davis,
and you could argue Ad is still maybe a better
defender all around because of how good he is at
the rim. But Ad put on a bunch of weight
and hasn't been able to move his feet on the
perimeter as well. It hasn't been as good defending switches.
Bam is legitimately awesome switching out onto the perimeter. One
of the unique things he does that many other big
struggle with. We're gonna talk about this when we get
to Evan Mobley. But one of the things that like
(11:39):
Evan Mobley struggles with is when he gets switched onto
quicker guards, he gives too much space and those guys
get really comfortable with their pull up three point shooting.
Evan got lit on fire on pull up threes in
ISOs this year, kind of prevented him from being as
good of an ISO big as as he could have been,
as good of a switching big as he could have been. Bam,
You'll see him like two feet out outside the three
(12:00):
point line picking up pull up shooters way out on
the perimeter. He's way more active with his hands to
disrupt the rhythm and flow of pull up shooters so
they can't comfortably settle into pull up jump shots, while
also having the speed laterally and the recovery athleticism to
deal with quickness getting past him. He's unbelievable defending on switches.
(12:22):
Even last year and what everyone considers to be a
down year, he was still amazing on the perimeter and switches. Statistically,
there were one hundred and fifty one players in the
NBA last year who defended at least fifty ISOs. Bam
Allouja zero point six to two points per possession in
ISO that ranked third on that list, third out of
(12:43):
one hundred and fifty one players. He does this while
also being very good in traditional coverages. He gets up
to the level of screens quickly and at the level
coverages and can disrupt pull up shooters. He can contest
in the mid range. He can protect the rim. He
obviously is in his protecting the rim as some of
the taller, longer centers in the NBA, but he's good
(13:04):
enough at it in conjunction with.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Being one of those truly elite.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Top tier switching defenders that he makes life very easy
for Eric Spolsterras schematically because they can build out any
defensive scheme that they want. Bam can do literally anything
you ask him to do. One of the most versatile
defensive foundations in the game. Bam can be a frustrating player,
and his lack of developing upside has certainly prevented Miami
(13:31):
from reaching their ultimate goals, and his regression there is,
like like I said, downright frustrating, especially if you're a
fan of Bam in the heat. But you can't do
a whole lot better in the modern NBA than a
big man who can legitimately anchor any defensive coverage at
a Defensive Player of the Year level, giving you an
enormous amount of flexibility from opponent to ponent, both in
(13:53):
the regular season and in the playoffs, while also being
a legitimately good dribble handoff fokram on offense that can
kind of get guys set up in the right spot. Now,
his lack of touch, especially around the rim, prevents him
from reaching that second tier of superstars in the NBA,
but his overall value is still enough to put him
(14:13):
at twenty three on this year's list. All right, number
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dkang dot co slash audio. Last season in review for
Evan played seventy one games. Very award heavy season for Evan.
(16:05):
He won Defensive Player of the Year. He was First
Team All Defense, second Team All NBA, made the All
Star Game, and was tenth in MVP voting. It's a
hell of a breakout season for the young star. His
averages he averaged nineteen points, nine rebounds, and three assists
two point five stocks per game. His efficiency used fifty
(16:28):
six percent from the field, sixty two percent on twos.
He doesn't have amazing touch on short twos, like forty
percent on floaters and hooks fifty three percent on layups.
Those marks are only slightly ahead of where bam Adebayo was,
but he had one hundred and ninety four dunks last year.
Bam only had one hundred and forty. Now, some of
(16:48):
that is that Evan Mobley played with better ball handlers,
but some of it is also that Evan Mobley is
a better vertical spacer and that was something that allowed
him to be way more efficient on twos than bam
Adebio was last year. He also shot thirty seven percent
from three on three point two attempts per game last
year in the regular season, more than double the attempts
(17:08):
of any previous season in his career, and he shot
well in the postseason. He shot forty five percent from
three in the postseason on four attempts per game, so
the jump shot feels real. He's legitimately a substantially better
jump shooter than bam Ade Bio. He was sixty percent
in effective field goal percentage and a career high sixty
three percent in true shooting, seven percentage points ahead of
(17:32):
where bam Adebayo was last year. Evan Mobley, in my opinion,
has become flatly a better offensive player than bam was
or is. The perimeter jump shot is more reliable. He's
added some of the ability to run action. I do
think bam is a better like five out dribble handoff fulkrum,
but Evan Mobley has closed the gap in terms of
offensive initiation with some of his ability to run offense,
(17:55):
to run inverted action, and his superior jump shooting and
his vertical spacing, like we talked about earlier, it made
Evan Mobley a very dynamic roleman. Evan Mobley scored one
point one seven points per roleman possession last year compared
to just zero point nine seven for bam Ata Bio,
so twenty points better per one hundred roll man possessions.
(18:16):
And again, some of that is the gap in ball handling,
but most of it is just that Mobley has become
a better offensive player. Evan Mobley shot thirty eight percent
on pick and pop three's last year. Bam shot twenty
three percent on pick and pop three, So three is
when he was slipping out of ball screens. Those are
generally wide open regardless of who the ball handler is.
(18:37):
So like that, again, there is an obvious ball handling
gap between those two teams, but I think there's an
obvious gap in offensive refinement between Evan Mobley and Bamadabayo
as well. Here's some play type data for Evan Mobley.
He's a hyper efficient play finisher. One point one to
seven points per roleman possession. That's sixty six percentiles of
(18:57):
pretty far above average.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
One point five.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
Five to nine points possession on cuts that's in the
ninety second percentile. That's that awesome vertical spacing and his
good hands around the basket, very good in transition, very
good in offensive rebound situations.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
In action.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
If you go back two years to twenty twenty four,
Evan Mobley ran just one hundred and fifty three pick
and rolls, ISOs and post ups including passes. Last year
that skyrocketed up to three hundred and thirty nine, more
than double Now. The efficiency was only okay, zero point
nine to one points possession including passes on all three
play types combined. Again not excellent, but it was his
(19:33):
first season as like a high volume creator, and that's
really not bad. He was specifically successful in inverted ball
screen situations, meaning when he was handling the ball in
either Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland or one of the
shooters like Sam Merrill or Max Strew's would come up
screen for him and then slip out to the three
point line. It kind of created some very simple reads
for him, like if the guards screened and the guard's
(19:56):
man didn't help, he would just turn the corner and
go downhill and he'd either get all the way to
the rim or he'd make a kick if someone stepped
over to help. It was a pretty simple set of reads.
If the guard lingered in a hedge, then the shooter
would slip out free and he would just pitch it
back to the shooter as he got to the three
point line. It was a very simple kind of order
of operations for Evan Mobley that allowed him to be
effective and one of the hardest actions to guard in
(20:19):
the NBA. That kind of like ghost screen action with
a bigger ball handler involved. When he passed out of
inverted ball screens. The Calves got one point zero six
points per possession last year, which is very good. I
also thought Mobley played well in the playoffs. His jump
shot was going in at a higher clip than the
(20:39):
regular season. He was making his hook shot, his shot
creation was successful. He ran fifteen of those inverted ball
screens in the playoffs and got nineteen points. That's great.
That's a great number. He ran fourteen post ups in
ISOs for thirteen points, which is not amazing, but it's
above his regular season efficiency. I thought the Caves held
up well on the offensive glass in that series, where
in us past that was something that Evan Mobley and
(21:01):
Jared Allen both had struggled with. I thought last year
was just a monumental step forward in Evan Mobley's development
as a basketball player.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Now.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
On the defensive end, I actually think Evan Mobley is
a tiny bit overrated. I would not have given him
Defensive Player of the Year last year. I do believe
that Evan Mobley is a very very good defender, but
for instance, I do think that bam Adebayo is a
better defensive player than Evan Mobley. I do not view
Evan Mobley in the conversation for best defenders in basketball. Again,
(21:34):
a big part of it is he wasn't very good
on switches. In that list of one hundred and fifty
one players who defended at least fifty ISOs that Bam
was third place on, Evan Mobley ranked sixty sixth on
that list. He allowed twenty seven more points per one
hundred ISOs than bam Adebio did. And his weakness, again,
(21:56):
we talked about it a little bit earlier when we
were talking about Bam. Bam was picking up pull up
shooters outside the three point line and stunting at the ball,
which allowed him to prevent himself from allowing easy pull
up jump shots over the top. Evan was consistently back
on his heels further back behind the three point line,
(22:17):
and so he contained the ball well. Excuse me, he
contained the ball well, but he gave up a lot
of easy pull up three point shots on his heels
in those ISO situations. He does have a good amount
of scheme versatility. It's worth mentioning. He does a lot
of work and two big looks as like a low
(22:37):
man on the back line. He can do a decent
job in switches. Again, he's not bad at it. He's
just not nearly as good as some of the other
bigs in the league because of him being kind of
passive and on his heels, and he does protect the
rim reasonably well. Evan Mobley getting the Defensive Player of
the Year award again, I disagreed with that. I thought
that had more to do with the Cavs just winning
(22:58):
a shit ton of games and being kind of like
an award geared around team success. I do still believe
Evan Mobley is an excellent defender overall, even if I
don't necessarily believe he was deserving of the accolades that
he got last year on the defensive end. The best
way for me to explain how I landed with Bam
at twenty three and Evan Mobley at twenty two is
(23:19):
to say that I believe Evan Mobley is the better
offensive player, and I believe Bam is the better defensive player.
But I believe the gap between how good Evan Mobley
is on offense and how good BAM is on offense
is bigger than the gap between how good BAM is
on defense and Evan Mobley is on defense.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
I think that gap is smaller, and no matter.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
What, it's a really impressive step forward for Evan Mobley
in his development. The next step it's going to be
improving as a switch defender and continuing to improve overall
as an offensive initiator and as a three point shooter.
All of this lands Evan at twenty two in this
year's rankings. All Right, number twenty one. Number twenty one
(24:04):
in this year's player rankings is Jalen Brown. Last season
interview for Jalen, he played sixty three games. That was
his lowis in twenty twenty one. He was dealing with
the knee issue throughout the year, which is going to
be a big part of the way we framed things
for Jalen Brown. In this particular segment, he averaged twenty
two points per game. That was his lowis in twenty
twenty six rebounds four point five assists, which was by
(24:27):
far a career high from him. The increase in assists
mainly stemmed from Jalen becoming a much more willing passer
out of his one on one situations, specifically ISO's and
post ups. For example, in the twenty twenty four season,
when he passed out of iso or passed out of
post ups, he generated just zero point ninety five points
(24:49):
per possession. In the twenty twenty five season, he passed
out of ISOs and post ups about a time and
a half as frequently, so he did it a lot
more and he generated one point three zero points per
possession when he passed out of those situations. The specific
improvement that I noticed the most on tape was him
(25:11):
passing out of the post. He did a lot better
job this year when he would get in the post
of just kind of probing until that second defender would
come in, making the appropriate kickout passes on time on
target to shooters. The Celtics did shoot super well on
his post kickouts this year, but there was also a
market improvement in the quality of the threes that he
(25:31):
was generating, and I tend to think those things are associated.
So obviously a little bit of shooting luck, but a
lot of shot quality as well. He generated thirty two
made threes out of post ups for his teammates in
just sixty three games this year. Last year, in seventy games,
he generated just twenty. That increase in overall playmaking ability
(25:54):
from Jalen made up for some of what was a
pretty down year for Jalen Brown as a shooter. But
I want to get into some of the specific reasons why,
because it's very fascinating. First of all, let's just get
through the numbers. He was forty six percent from the field.
That's the lowest since his rookie year. He was fifty
three percent on twos, lowest since his second year in
the league, thirty two percent from three, lowest since his
(26:17):
rookie year. Fifty two percent in effective field goal percentage.
Excuse me the thirty two percent from three that was
the lowest of his entire career. Fifty two percent in
effective field goal percentage, lowest since his rookie year. Fifty
six percent in true shooting percentage, lowest since twenty nineteen.
So why did efficiency dip the way that it did
this year. I think it mostly had to do with
(26:40):
his knee. There's this thing that I talk about a
lot in this show called energy transfer. It's a concept
for jump shooting in general, shot making in basketball, essentially,
like if you make a move to get to anywhere
on the floor, or even if you're just in a
catch and shoot situation, at the end of that sequence,
you are transferring energy from your feet up through your knees,
(27:01):
up through your hips, up through your shoulder, elbow, four arm,
all the way through the wrist on the snap of
the snap of the jump shot right. And if you
get less power, then you usually get out of one
part of that system. The entire calibration of it gets
thrown off. I thought it was evidenced by a couple
(27:23):
of key areas in his shooting efficiency. Take a look
at this. His jump shooting was down mostly across the board,
like overall one point zero four points per shot on
jump shots in twenty twenty four, zero point nine to
two points per shot in twenty twenty five, so twelve
points per one hundred jump shots. Worse overall on jump
shots off the dribble zero point eighty five points per
(27:47):
shot last year. The year before one point zero zero
points per shot, so fifteen points per one hundred off
the dribble jump shots, worse contested catch and shoots twenty
twenty four one point zero four, twenty two twenty five
zero point nine to eight six per one hundred worse, right,
But in wide open catch and shoot shooting he was
(28:07):
actually up year over year. He was one point one four,
twenty twenty four, one point one point eight, and twenty
twenty five. Now, before we dig into why that's interesting,
let's talk about his rim finishing two. In twenty twenty four,
he got to the rim seven point three times per
game and shot sixty two percent there. According to Synergy
(28:27):
twenty twenty five, just six point seven attempts per game
and just sixty percent at the rim, So a little
bit worse in both volume and efficiency. So what does
it tell us that Jalen has improved as a playmaker
and improved as a wide open catch and shoot guy
year over year, but that he struggled on contested jump
(28:49):
shots off the dribble jump shots and his rim volume
in efficiency both dropped year over year. It sounds to
me like the game continues to slow down for him
and his skill set is continuing to refine, but that
he was obviously dealing with the struggle to get lift
and separation, which is going to make a lot of
(29:11):
sense for a guy who's dealing with the issues. What
are the shots that are going to require extra oomph
in your lower body in that energy transfer, contested catch
and shoot, jump shots, shooting off the dribble and out
of footwork and getting to and finishing at the rim,
That's where he saw the drop off. Now, it's at
(29:33):
least worth mentioning that he's about to turn twenty nine
years old and he has a ton of miles on
his body relative to most NBA players his age. For perspective,
he's played forty five hundred playoff minutes. Lebron James has
played twelve thousand. So the way to look at it
is Jalen Brown already at just age twenty eight, has
(29:57):
played thirty eight percent of the playoff off minutes that
Lebron James has played, and he's well into his forties now.
So Jalen's dip in athleticism and the associated struggles, as
well as the reality of his age and the amount
of mileage on his body that's a big part of
how he slipped a little bit down the list For
me this year, I'll be curious to see if he's
(30:19):
able to overcome that knee issue and get back to
one hundred percent next year, or if it's something that
lingers and that can become a problem as things continue
throughout his career. Next year will be our first opportunity
to see Jalen Brown in a truly featured primary shot
creator role. Last year, Jalen's volume was sizable, especially in
(30:40):
one on one situations. He ran over five hundred pick
and roles and excuse me, over five hundred post ups
and ISOs, but his overall shot creation volume is still
low relative to his peers at the top of the league.
He was good, though, one point zero one points per
possession and pick and roll including including passes on four
hundred and fifty three reps.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
That's slightly above average.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
One point per ISO including passes on pretty high volume
three hundred and two reps that was the thirteenth most
in the entire NBA efficiency efficiency for that, once again
slightly above average. He was one point two eight points
per possession in post ups including passes, which is excellent.
That ranked number one. Jalen Brown was number one out
of the eighteen players to run at least two hundred
(31:24):
post ups last year. Now, again, some of that is
influenced by the fact that the Celtics shot super well
on his kickouts. I think they shot like sixty percent
on his kickout threes out of post ups. But it's
worth mentioning again, when I looked at the film, the
kickouts were happening more frequently and he was generating better
shots than he did in previous years. So some of
it was shooting variants, some of it was also the
(31:45):
quality of shots he was generating. I expect Jalen Brown
to continue to thrive at volume in ISO and post
up situations. They tend to present the simplest reads in
a four out one in system. So, for instance, if
you're on a cleared side post up for Jalen Brown,
very easy reads for him. If you put him on
the left block and he's got the ball in his
right hand, you double from the top. It's an easy
(32:07):
kick out up to the wing for a three point shot.
You double off the opposite wing. He can rifle that
pass to the opposite wing. I've seen him make that
specific pass. Many times they could get a little tougher
when they load up and make the weak side corner available,
but Jalen will is typically pretty good at getting deeper
into the paint making the kickouts. They're easier reads ISO,
same sort of thing, cleared side ISO exact same reads
(32:28):
we just covered wing ISOs in four out one in.
It's pretty simple. If the defender's funneling you towards the
baseline and you drive. If you drive and they don't
help off the strong side corner, you're gonna face help
off of the weak side corner if they rotate down
the reads to the wing. If they don't the reads
to the corner, it's a pretty simple set of reads
out of an ISO. If you do get to the middle,
(32:48):
if they pinch down from the nail, you pinch up
to you pitch it out to the wing. If they
stay glued to the wing and you get past that guy,
they're probably gonna help off the corner.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
You make the kick to the corner.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
It's like those one on one situations present that I
think Jalen Brown can handle really well.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So increasing his volume.
Speaker 1 (33:04):
Because he's the primary guy, he's just gonna get into
a better rhythm, and it'll make him even better at
making those basic reads. I think he's gonna be fine
in ISO and post up situations.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Whether or not Jalen Brown has a truly great season
leading the Celtics will come down to his work and
pick and roll. That is not a skill set that
comes naturally to Jalen Brown. When he has to read
lots of moving parts, navigating a defender behind him and
in front of him, looking off defenders some of the
more complex help and recover situations that you see in
(33:39):
pick and roll, tougher angles, tougher passing reads, that's where
it can get tough for him. I do think it's
a coverage he's gonna see quite a lot this year too,
especially since he'll be surrounded by less talent. Teams will
switch less against the Celtics, there will be more loaded
up pick and roll traditional coverages. My guess is that
(33:59):
Jalen Brown struggle here. I think we'll see a pretty
high turnover rate from him this year. I think his
efficiency in pick and roll per per possession including passes
will flirt with a point and maybe dip below a point.
But if he can prove me wrong here. He does
have the potential to have a special offensive season, especially
if he can get his knee back to one hundred percent.
(34:20):
But my guess is it's going to be really nice
in ice in post up situations about that, he'll struggle
in pick and roll, and then overall it'll be kind
of a mixed bag from him this year. On defense,
I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jalen Brown.
I think he's just one of the absolute apex perimeter
defenders in the league when he really locks in there,
certainly in the top tier. He's just such an amazing
(34:43):
weapon to have on a roster. He even brings the
switch ability that gave Boston the championship ceiling they had
in the past. We talk so much about Jason Tatum
and his ability to guard centers and how that made
things work because they could switch. Well, that only works
that the guy that's guarding the guard can also switch
on to center, which Jalen Brown could effectively do. Obviously,
(35:04):
this year will be different, and that you probably have
way too much offensive responsibility to be that apex defender
while also doing everything he needs to do on offense.
But it's still an important part of his skill set
that we have to factor in when we're considering a
list like this. Jalen Brown's dropped a bit on this
list as his body has started to let him down
a bit in the playoffs, especially, he shot very poorly
(35:27):
on long jump shots, very poorly at the rim. He
was just fifty five percent at the RAM in the postseason.
But again, as an Apex perimeter defender and a bona
fide secondary shot creator in this league, I think he's
firmly entrenched in the top twenty five. I have him
at spot number twenty one this year. All Right, guys,
This's all I have for today is always to sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting and supporting the show. Remember
(35:48):
to get your mailbag questions in. It won't be for
a couple of fridays that we get to this particular
episode in our mail bags, just because I'm going out
of town to Alaska. But I do plan on going
through all the videos and finding all of the arguments
for our mailbags. So if you disagree with any of
the rankings in any way, shape or form, give a
quick elevator pitch and the YouTube comments with as a
(36:08):
mailbag question, and we'll get to them in our mail
bags throughout the remainder of the list. Again, as always,
I appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
Now I'll see you guys next time.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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