Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, Well, good to hoops tonight. You're
at the volume heavy Monday, everybody, Oh ball. If you
guys had a great weekend. We are continuing our player
rankings today. We are venturing into a different tier of players,
(00:25):
going into our second tier, our second tier superstars. We're
hitting number fourteen and number thirteen today. You guys know
the joke before we get started. Subscribe to Hoops and
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(00:46):
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not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in those YouTube comments. Remember,
our mail bags are going to be geared towards the
player rankings. So if you disagree with any of the
numbers on this list, a player too high, a player
too low, play or should be on the list, or
shouldn't be on the list. Whatever it may be, Just
write your quick little elevator, pitch your quick concise basketball
(01:07):
argument for why you disagree, and we'll get to them
in our mail bags throughout the remainder of the summer.
All right, let's talk some basketball. So, as mentioned, we
just finished our third tier of superstars. These are the
guys that are firmly worth max contracts, probably not gonna
be the kind of guy that could be the best
player on a championship team. There were a couple guys
towards the top of that tier, guys like Jimmy or
(01:29):
guys like Book who like if the right situation presented itself,
with tons of surrounding talent, they could probably do it.
But that's a group that I think is below this
next tier, where with our second tier superstars, these are
guys that are absolutely capable on any given night of
staring down the very best players in the world and
(01:50):
out playing them. That means even yes, guys like Shay
and Jannis and Luka Dancic and even Nikola Jokich, these
are guys that can go toe to toe with those
guys and beat them, and we've seen them do it.
Both of the guys that were covering today have stared
down Nakola Jokic and outplayed him head to head before
in single games for one of these guys in the
(02:12):
regular season, and for one of these guys in one
playoff game where Jokic ended up having the last word
and getting the win. The point being, these are guys
that on any given night that can reach that level.
They have bonafide top tier superstar ceilings. But for various
reasons including age for guys like Lebron Steph or Kevin Durant,
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or injuries for guys like Kawhi Leonard or Joel Embiid,
or youth for guys like Anthony Edwards and Victor wembin Yama,
these guys struggle to maintain that absolute peak level of basketball.
Several of these guys used to be firmly in the
top tier, including both guys were covering today, and for
guys like Anton Wemby, I'd be shocked if they weren't
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in that top tier at some point over the next
two or three seasons. The guys that are a this group,
the players that I have in one through four, they
are consistently night to night able to reach that level
at least the vast majority of time, and that's really
the differentiator is the consistency. And I think there's like
a pretty substantial drop off from number four to number
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five in terms of that night to night consistency there.
I actually really struggled with who to put in that
fifth spot really for that particular reason. We had a
mailback question the other day where we were talking about Tatum,
and that's kind of why Tatum made so much sense
in that five spot. He's the one guy who's like,
obviously that number. He's clearly better than everyone below him,
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but clearly not as good as the four guys above him.
It kind of like fits perfectly into that spot. So,
without any further doo, let's get started. Number fourteen Joel
Embi last season in review. Last season was just a miserable,
injury riddled season for Joelle. Played in just nineteen games.
He made three separate attempts to try to rejoin the
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team and just was not able to get his body
to cooperate before this seventy six Ers finally shut him
down and it was the right decision. He didn't look
much like himself when he was on the floor there
weren't many examples of him looking like the Joel Embiid
that won the MVP previously. All of his numbers and
shooting metrics were down year over year. Flashed his upside
every once in a while. I had a couple thirty
(04:17):
point double doubles and think Gate a thirty seven point game,
but he just wasn't able to get healthy and to
stay on the floor. Joel's season is actually kind of
an interesting example of how this list works and how
I put it together. I ranked Joel eleventh last year,
and as many of you guys may remember, I took
a lot of shit for it, including Joel's trainer, Drew
(04:40):
Hanlin actually came after me for it. And here's the thing.
It's no secret Joel's not my favorite player. There are
several things about his game that I'm not a fan of,
But there are also several things about his game that
I really like and that are super impressive and that
I'm drawn to. My decision to put Joel at eleven
was simply weighing the realities of his health risks. In
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this list, we're looking at who is the best option
to have on your team from October through June and
I absolutely view Joel Embiid is a bona fide top
tier superstar when he's healthy. But I just don't think
it was a safe bet for him to make it
through the season, and he didn't, and we have to
make the same call here. To me, Joel's upside is
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way too high to drop him to the next tier
of guys. I think he'd be no lower than fifth
on this list, maybe sixth with Tatum if his knee
could hold up. He has a unique problem like this
is one of the unique things with Joel that kind
of makes him an interesting player to talk to in
this context because we talked about out playing the top guys.
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Out of any of the top guys, Nikole Jokic has
issues with one, and that's Joel Embiid. He's the one
guy because of his size and his ability to really
kind of neutralize some of the scoring that Nikola Jokic
does and kind of turn him into more of a playmaker,
and his ability to attack Jokic in one on one
situations is something that gave Jokic problems in the regular
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season context, obviously, but that is what makes him specifically
interesting as a top tier star. But I would argue,
out of this top fourteen group, the top tier superstars
and the second tier superstars, he's by far the least
likely to actually make it through a season, and so
he has to be down at number fourteen for me. Now,
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for those who are not familiar with how I feel
about a healthy Joel, I do want to dig into
a little bit about that right here. I'd probably have
a healthy version of Joel without the knee issues, if
he's just operating at the same level that he is
when he's completely in rhythm and on the floor and
night tonight ready to go. I'd have him at five
or six, probably six if Jason Tatum was healthy. And
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so in that sense, yes, I am lower on Joel
than most people at his absolute ceiling. It really comes
down to his playoff shortcomings for me, and that's been
a recurring theme as we've discussed some of the guys
that missed the list this year and guys that are
lower on this list. First of all, the defensive end.
When Joelle can stay near the rim, he's one of
the best defenders in basketball, but he's not very matchup resilient.
(07:17):
He has two specific issues that cause him issue speed,
teams that can really get up and down the floor
and transition, like I would feel very I would not
feel good about a healthy Sixers team against a healthy
Indiana Pacers team with Tyres Haliburton ready to go, I
think they would just run him off the floor. And
we saw many points over the course of the years
him really really struggle with transition attack. He just struggles
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to change ends just because of his lack of foot speed.
And then secondly, teams that can really force him to
guard on the perimeter, so like excellent pull up shooting
teams that force him to come up to the level consistently,
or teams that force him to that kind of drag
him out and switches. You guys might remember Jason Tatum
in game seven of the was at Eastern Conference semis
if I remember correctly a couple years ago, Jason Tatum
(08:01):
like brutalized Joel Embiid in Game seven on switches and
pick and roll in the sense that, like, when he's
out at the rim, he's one of the top you know,
five or six guys that you can have in the league.
But when he's out on the perimeter, he actually suddenly
becomes a pretty bad defensive player, and so there's a
matchup resiliency thing with him. Defensively. I never viewed him
as nearly as good of a playoff defender as he
(08:22):
was a regular season defender, and so that was a
big part of why I had him lower. And then
on offense, he just was never able to really replicate
his regular season success when he got to the postseason.
The refs are less willing to reward his grifts, his
jump shot becomes super streaky. He was always more of
a jump shooter than he was like a short range scorer,
Like guys like Jokic, they use their body to get
(08:43):
closer to the basket, and they lean on hooks and
floaters more than they lean on jump shots. Like you'll
very rarely see Jokic take a mid range jump shot
unless he's up against the clock right or if like
it's dead wide open and it would break the offensive
rhythm to dribble out of it, and Bead hunts those opportunities,
and if they don't go in at a super high clip,
it ends up neutering his efficiency when he gets into
the postseason. And there was a proven way to have
(09:07):
success against him defensively in the postseason by doubling him,
specifically from behind if he doubled him from his blind side.
He consistently struggled with it for his career. He has
eighteen more turnovers than assists in the postseason. That was
another consistent issue that would come up. So I viewed
Embiid as a top tier superstar, but I viewed him
(09:27):
as at the bottom of that top tier because of
those limitations when he got to the postseason. All of
that said, I truly hope that JOELMBI gets healthy this
year and that he's able to make another run at
the title. The East is wide open, obviously, if Paul
George can get healthy, there's still a decent amount of
talent on that roster, and he's capable of being the
(09:48):
best player in that conference. And I'd argue a healthy
Sixers team is actually a better roster than a healthy
Bucks team, And so there's some potential there if all
the stars align for this to come together for a
moment for deemption for Joel Embii. I saw the article
about how bad his an he was, and I do
truly feel awful form like I don't wish that on anybody.
(10:08):
I hope he can get right, and I hope that
we can watch Joel play in some big playoff games
again this year. But in the meantime, I think fourteen
is the appropriate spot for him on this list. All right,
Last guy, Today's gonna be quick show today Number thirteen
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co slash audio. Last season in review for Kawhi played
in just thirty seven games. He basically sat out until
January and then for the first month kind of slowly
ramped up and then more or less played like normal
through the end of the season, and it looked like
there was a stretch there where the Clippers lost a
couple back to back games to the Lakers, and like
(12:17):
it looked like Kawhi just didn't have that explosiveness, And
I remember talking about it on the show, like Kawhi
just doesn't look physically like himself. And then all of
a sudden, there was a runway there right before the
end of the season where you were like, hoh the shit,
Like Kawhi is starting to look a little bit like
Kawhi And it was like, are we heading for another
one of those environments where he just suddenly in a
playoff series looks like he might be the best player
in the world. But the bad news is is that
(12:40):
even though the plan worked and they got him to
the finish line and he was able to finish the
playoff run, they albeit short playoff run, without getting hurt.
It was also the first year that I can remember
where a healthy Kawhi didn't feel like the indomitable force
that he was in previous years when Kawhi was healthy
in twenty twenty and in twenty twenty one and in
(13:02):
twenty twenty three before he got hurt in those three
In the last two playoff runs, and before he got
eliminated in twenty twenty he was that classic robot Kawhi
with the scoring and efficiency. His numbers in those three
playoff runs are kind of insane. Thirty points, eight rebounds,
five assists, sixty three point four percent true shooting. That's
like off the charts good and all of us remember
(13:23):
what it was like watching him in those games. He
looked like he was every bit as good as the
very best players in the world when that was happening.
That was the upside that we were all clinging to
when we would discuss the Clippers. If Kawhi can stay healthy,
he can be the best player in a playoff run,
potentially for the handful of games. And what was it
twenty twenty three, he would look better than KD in
(13:44):
those games before he got hurt. That Clippers team looked
destined for a finals run in twenty twenty one before
he got hurt. But that upside just didn't materialize this year.
We got one game. Game two was wild vintage Kawhi
fifteen for nineteen from the field, four for seven from
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three thirty nine points, walked down the Nuggets with two
ice cold jumpers in the final two and a half minutes.
It felt like those other playoff runs. But outside of
Game two against Denver, he was never able to bring
that true Superstar force to bear. Game one nine for
fifteen from the field, which is obviously efficient, but he
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had just twenty two points, and he had seven turnovers
with only two assists. It was a bad game for Kawhi.
Game three seven for seventeen, Game four ten for twenty two,
twenty four points, two assists. That's a mediocre Superstar game,
a bad Superstar game. Game five eight for fifteen from
the field, twenty points, eleven assists, a fine game, but
nothing special. Game six twenty seven to ten to five
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on eleven for twenty two. That's a really good game.
But that's not like Robot Superhero Kawhi. Game seven elimination,
Everything on the line six for thirteen, twenty two points,
five rebounds, two assists. And there's context there, like Denver
brought a lot of double teams against Kawhi in that series,
but at the same time, Kawhi did a really poor
job of managing and solving those double teams. So even
(15:11):
though the shooting percentages as you zoomed out from the series,
he was still fifty forty. Like the shooting percentages look fine,
but if you take out Game two, he was actually
pretty mediocre in that series, and his scoring volume wasn't
good at all. So the bottom line is, in years past,
it felt like a healthy Kawhi was as good as
the best player is in the league. But this year,
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Kawhi went into the playoffs healthy and he didn't come
close to that level, and that was really sad for
me as a basketball fan. One of the things it
felt like as we were watching it was like, oh, man, like,
is this the end of Kawhi's prime? Like for me
as a basketball fan, I actually really like watching Kawhi.
There's a lot of like when I play in the post,
(15:55):
a lot of the post work that I do, I've
tried to mimic Kawhi in terms of physical post up
play and using your to get separation. Like, Kwi is
a player that I've always been drawn to, and it
feels like we got robbed of his prime and now
it just feels like we're on the other side, and
that really sucks. Let's take a look at the season
real quick. Let's go through some of his numbers. Thirty
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seven games played, he had twenty two points, six rebounds,
and three assists, two point one stocks per game, one
point six steals, which actually ranked seventeenth in the NBA.
His percentages, he was below fifty, just below fifty percent
from the field. That was his first time below fifty
percent since twenty twenty. Forty one percent from three and
five attemts per game. Shot the ball well there eighty
one percent from the line, but only three attempts per game.
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And this is perhaps the most concerning stat as it
pertains to Kui's declining athleticism. Kawi is not a grifter.
He doesn't get to the line by doing jankie shit.
He gets to the line as a supreme athlete that
gets defenders out of position. But if you look back
his last full healthy season in San Antonio, his season
in Toronto where he won the title, his season with
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the Clippers in twenty twenty, in those seasons he posted
over seven free throw attempts per game in each of
those three seasons, this year just three, so less than
half what he was at his peak. He's just not
getting defenders out of position the way that he used to.
Fifty six percent in effecive fielgal percentage, which is which
is fine, but it's not Kawhi. Fifty nine percent true shooting,
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which is fine, it's not Kawhi. It's his lowest since
twenty twenty. Playtype data, this is where you can really
see the drop off down across the board. He was
below a point per possession in pick and roll. The
year before he was at one point zero four, which
was sixty nine percent TILE, so he dropped substantially year
over year as a pick and roll player. He was
below a point per possession in ISO this year. The
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year before he was one of the best ISO players
in the league one point twenty five points per io
including passes, which was in the ninety sixth percentile. This
year in the post one point zero seven points per possession,
which is slightly above average, but one year prior one
point one four seven points better per one hundred possessions,
a massive year over year deep a dip in his
(18:05):
play type in his shot creation out of various play types.
So I mean the reason why Kawhi is dropped all
the way to thirteen on this list is simply that
the equation is changed. It used to be that like
if you could somehow navigate the season and get to
the finish line. With a healthy Kawhi, you got to
have a top tier superstar at that point, and he
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had the potential to outplay the best players in the league.
He gave you a crazy upside, right that, like, maybe
they can win the title upside. But now it feels like,
if you get through a season with a healthy Kawhi,
you get a second tier superstar, a guy that on
any one night, like in Game two, can reach that
level and outplay the best players in the world. But
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a guy who on most nights is probably going to
be a level below that. So that's how he lands
at number thirteen this year. All right, guys, that's all
I have for today is always to sincerely appreciate you
guys for supporting us, in supporting the show. We'll be
back on a Wednesday with number twelve and number eleven.
I will see you guys then