May 20, 2025 • 29 mins
Jason breaks down every angle from the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. He discusses OKC being a big favorite, the challenges that Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle will face against their defense, how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams can be effective, why Chet Holmgren could swing the series, and more.
#Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The NBA Finals are almost here and every
play could be the one that changes everything. This is
the NBA Playoffs where heroes rise, legacies are built, and
the action never lets up. And with DraftKings Sportsbook and
official sports betting partner of the NBA, you don't just
watch the madness, you live it. Back your favorite team,
(00:23):
ride with your clutch, time killer, bet on the buzzer beaters,
the breakout performances, the game winning threes, from player props
to same game parlays. This is how you take your
fandom to the next level. The New York Knicks, after
beating the Celtics are up to plus three sixty, is
the second best odds to win the title. Surprisingly, the
Pacers back at plus six hundred because my initial thought
(00:46):
on that series is I want to pick the Pacers.
But some interesting championship oods right now. New to the game,
no sweat, Download the DraftKings Sportsbook, gap bet just five
dollars and if your bet wins, you'll score three hundred
dollars in bonus bets. It's that easy. I don't know
the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's code
hoops hoops for new customers to get three hundred dollars
(01:07):
in bonus bets if your bet wins. When you bet
just five bucks only on DraftKings, the Crown is yours.
Gambling problem called one hundred gambler In New York call
eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text hope
and why to four six seven three six y nine.
In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight
eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
(01:28):
visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Boothill Casino and Resort In Kansas twenty one plus age
in eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bet must
win to receive reward. Bonus bets expire one hundred and
sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible
gaming resources, see DKG dot co. Slash audio. All right,
(02:02):
welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody.
Hope all of you guys are having a great start
to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference
Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I went back and forth on this series a half
dozen times since last night, but I did find an
answer I will be revealing at the tail end of
the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine.
(02:23):
We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some
of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and
then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City
on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and
then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the
joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight
YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't
misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we
get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super
(02:45):
helpful if you leave a rating in a review on
that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media
feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there.
In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question
so we can get to them throughout the remainder of
the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to
two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards
the end of the year where the end of the
bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed
(03:08):
managed to come back from down like fourteen with three
minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately
Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that
overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some
big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense
versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had
(03:30):
a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at
the rim got up in his face and was flexing
on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City
had taken control of until the final minutes, and it
was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon
that actually brought them back into it. So to two,
but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played
in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in
(03:54):
one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one
of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of
the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So,
as is always the case, I'm more looking into those
games for just opportunities to see what it looks like
when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the
games where you see something that might be translatable. Not
too much to take away. The metrics are just about
(04:15):
as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen
point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to
fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage
towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of
available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their
own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from
Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are
(04:39):
provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus
three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but
I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy
metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use.
So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where
(05:00):
by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team,
They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma
City had a forty three point win and a thirty
two point win in the series because there are a
bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never
gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and
the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so
to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of
the way that these odds will come out. I think
(05:21):
this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota
side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma
City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in
that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range.
But you can get Minnesota right now to win the
series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a
good price for a team that absolutely has a good
chance to win this series, even though we can all
(05:44):
agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota.
On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards.
Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the
regular season. They held him to twenty two points per
game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty
two two percent from three. They forced him into three
point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average.
(06:06):
It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex
Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in
particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games
he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double
teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and
they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it
without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch
(06:27):
and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's
got that unique combination of like the strength to hold
up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat
him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying,
especially in their first game that they played this year,
where he was just like getting physical with them off ball,
just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding,
and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat
(06:50):
Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup
than he did in his regular With his regular season
average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended
up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against
Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in
this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on
offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen
(07:13):
or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City
this year. I think he had a twenty seven point
game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled,
but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's
just playing at a much higher level than he was
when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I
think it was like December in the game that he
actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to,
(07:34):
on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow,
keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches.
But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into
ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay,
and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and
so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm
and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what.
(07:54):
But he also has to read the room and be like,
this is a team that's got a million dudes who
can defend guards and not a lot of guys who
can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job
to make sure as the point guard, or as the
on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs.
And one of the things we've talked about a lot
over the course of this playoff run is I kind
(08:15):
of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old
school two guard anyway, and so I want to see
the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for
him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For
guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next
challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought
Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced,
(08:36):
just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of
a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior,
but also rim protection with in terms of like real
vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and
he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't
necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector,
(08:57):
if that makes sense. And past that test and his
last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points,
five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the
field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma
City defense is gonna present kind of the best of
both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of
the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden
State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys,
(09:20):
but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big
difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of
guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be
less of a factor here, But I think just in
terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see,
he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him.
So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly
(09:43):
handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in
his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build
for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to
hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots.
JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in
three of the four matchups this year, but in the
one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well.
Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength
(10:06):
by beating him to spots and had the length to
kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall
exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on
Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying
to go through j dub In not having any success
because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again,
Julius is playing at a much higher level now than
he was back when that game took place. Julius is
(10:27):
going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout
this series, and so they're gonna need him to be
great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things
I want to keep an eye on in this series.
I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording.
This was one of the big swing factors for me.
I can't get out of my head the problem that
Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch
(10:50):
in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting.
And this is going to be a series where I
think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos
and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius,
and I think we could see a lot of that
similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting,
three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they
(11:11):
can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers
when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches.
So let's keep an eye on that in this series.
Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the
ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think
we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low
(11:32):
usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about
five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes,
but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession.
He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots
in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters,
So not too much to worry about on ball in
terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a
good amount of damage off ball as like a transition
scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty
(11:54):
one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in
the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a
good job of tracking it when he's in his help
and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an
offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two
offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have
to be a little attentive to him crashing out of
the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada
(12:15):
McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to
be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive
player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter,
active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent
on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had
a thirty point game and a twenty five point game
just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where
he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet
(12:38):
will be to be that effective kind of roam or
just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him
get free runways to the basket over and over again,
he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert.
Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year.
He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He
had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert
performance and that he makes some so much easier to
(13:00):
guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems
for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein
will be playing up off of him in ball screens,
up high in pick and roll. That was something we
talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the
level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry
about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat.
He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the
(13:23):
regular season in their one game, he did just get
two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good
job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass.
We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but
I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to
kind of have their roles minimized over the course of
this series as both teams lean more into Chet and
nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in
(13:44):
a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a
ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't
involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are
both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason.
Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante
and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me,
Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in
(14:06):
the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again,
closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante
alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down
to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before,
nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup
in the regular season. He can beat nail help with
above the break shooting. This was a big thing with
(14:27):
Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops
or against switches when they are just digging down off
the nail. He can get a clean look from like
twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing.
This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz
can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over
the top of contests, that's going to be a big
factor in this series. And then he just has a
(14:47):
lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City
smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they
go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the
course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive
responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches.
So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X
factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on
(15:07):
the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is
eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent,
But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if
you chase him off the line in a spot up situation,
he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's
driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball,
chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then
(15:30):
attacking him on defense in space to see if he
can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very
effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times
guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will
be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in
this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but
they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I
actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and
(15:52):
we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength
for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the
defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot
of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular,
has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against
OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in
the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a
crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at
(16:14):
one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense,
pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their
post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those
post entries could be the entryway to them getting out
in transition against this team. So that's going to be
the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages,
make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius
(16:35):
and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling.
That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game,
as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got
to create a clear passing window and then from there
play out of those advantages. I would love to see
Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series,
and then as a group, and this goes for both teams.
He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes.
(16:57):
That's going to be a big swing in this series,
all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the
matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely
fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He
had thirty seven or more and three of the four
matchups really had the three point shot going. He was
able to get in the lane and draw fouls an
absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in
(17:20):
this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to
do better than he did. He's got the length and
quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of
it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they
were picking him up further out, Very different than the
Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off
of him and containing and trying to bait him into
taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring
(17:41):
him and he was just going right around the first
guy and kind of getting a head of steam into
the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul
after foul. I would like to see, I know this
kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I
would like to see at least at some point an
attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and
contest style of defense against meaning like give him more
(18:01):
space play in that kind of like range where he
can contain the drive but get a late contest on
a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that
easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that
he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little
worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just
because that's who they are as a basketball team. We
will see, but once again, it'll be a team job.
(18:23):
I think the Keel will get a lot of reps
in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking
the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot
the ball very well from three in this matchup. He
made ten threes in the four games on over fifty
percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb.
I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's
(18:44):
gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency
over the years has been to die on screens from
time to time when he gets tired, So I think
it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves
will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all
the way to paint that often, or all the way
into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's
back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities
(19:05):
if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make
shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as
Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent
from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty
nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero
eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range
game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like
(19:25):
I could see him getting a lot of looks against
drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant
struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that.
Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after
helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for
Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes,
twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta
(19:47):
get good close outs and then keeping him off the
offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven,
but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because
it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with
Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking
up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives
him a free license to crash towards the front of
the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the
ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna
(20:09):
be about putting his body in front of him, you know,
and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can
get and then getting a good close out. I actually
like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting,
because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm
a little worried about him getting beat up on the
offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think
we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well,
(20:30):
especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize,
it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet
has been below a point per shot on catch and
shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six
for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think
both guys will be able to help in the lane.
They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts,
be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna
be off ball, he better be helping. And then on
(20:51):
Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with
their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there
on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep
getting good luck, the good looks that he got in
the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series.
So Check can swing this series in a big way
if he just hits the shots that he's been missing
so far in this postseason and then go go Bar
(21:12):
and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we
saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end
of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at
Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low,
or if you get a good contest off a high like,
you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super
interesting in that series because so many teams over the
(21:32):
course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh,
if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take
his floater, and it would just go in over and
over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy
I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot
the floater, and he forced him into a lot of
misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could
take a note from that, especially with his longer arms
(21:53):
and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters.
But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of
these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into
Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just
because of Jokic and the need they had to match
up with his size and strength. I could see him
going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare
(22:14):
for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't
be surprised if we looked back on this series in
both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game.
I think that's something to keep an eye on as
we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench
kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been
their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters,
(22:36):
like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs.
Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games
in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So
those are guys who are going to have to keep
an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on
like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again,
I went back and forth on this one a bunch
of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was
(22:58):
the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because
I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive
players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had.
But I could very easily say the exact same thing
about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys
are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't
(23:19):
score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my
mind was a lot of what I saw in Game
seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in
my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think
Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily
on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree,
(23:40):
the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession,
for every single inch, for simple things like post entries,
just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's
picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession,
and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout
the other way, these are the two top teams in
the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota
(24:03):
is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging
eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the
two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams
in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two
defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill
and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in.
So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in
(24:25):
six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series.
I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages,
I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting
those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that
actually ends up working out in their favor. And I
just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and
dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage
(24:46):
for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I
absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're
the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's
a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about
playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and
as a playmaker in the series. If he does that,
that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get
(25:06):
the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and
they do score effectively and draw two to the ball
and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball
over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in
offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas
and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma
City's role players that could play a role. And then again,
even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good
(25:27):
as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better
than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could
potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense.
Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance,
ended up being a series that ended up being a
game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a
little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because
(25:49):
they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism
by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I
don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much
in this series at all. Both of these teams are
super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be
comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think
even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the
(26:11):
same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers
stole Game one in New York, where I think home
court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so
keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is
the steel Game one. I think they have a good
chance to steal Game one because of the shock and
awe value of their defense. But over the course of
the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and
I think they have the better defense, and I think
(26:33):
it's enough of an advantage to make up for the
experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys,
that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone
enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously,
but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer
of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube,
(26:55):
you know, for a half hour or so, and then
after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot
tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get
informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all
that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan
for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then.
What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really
(27:16):
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume.
It's a great time of year to get out and
see some of these live events. We've got concerts and
comedy shows all over the country. I got out to
(27:37):
the Sphere for a three night set to see Dead
in Company last month. The NBA Playoffs are in full swing,
lots of good games to see there. The Major League
Baseball season is underway, and this is why I want
to give a shout out to the sponsor of today's video,
seat Geek. With over twenty eight million downloads, seat Geek
is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more
(27:58):
than seventy thousand events listed on including concerts, sports, festivals
and more. And like I said earlier, you can get
tickets to the NBA Playoffs now. I'm super excited to
see several of these series in the first round. Look
at all these tickets that you can find, and they'll
even tell you whether or not that ticket is a
particularly good deal. Here's an amazing deal for Game three.
(28:18):
Here's another great deal, another amazing deal. You can find
all these options on seat geek. Seek geek has your back.
Each ticket is rated on a scale of one to ten,
so you know exactly how much of a deal you're getting.
Green means good, red means bad. Plus every ticket is
backed by their buyer guarantee. You know I came through
for you guys. You can use code hoops ten that's
(28:40):
Hops ten for ten percent off your next set of
tickets at Sea gek. That's ten percent off any tickets
with promo code hoops ten. Make sure you click the
link in the description to download the app and have
the code automatically added to your account so you can
use it later and thank you seat Geek
The volume. The NBA Finals are almost here and every
play could be the one that changes everything. This is
the NBA Playoffs where heroes rise, legacies are built, and
the action never lets up. And with DraftKings Sportsbook and
official sports betting partner of the NBA, you don't just
watch the madness, you live it. Back your favorite team,
(00:23):
ride with your clutch, time killer, bet on the buzzer beaters,
the breakout performances, the game winning threes, from player props
to same game parlays. This is how you take your
fandom to the next level. The New York Knicks, after
beating the Celtics are up to plus three sixty, is
the second best odds to win the title. Surprisingly, the
Pacers back at plus six hundred because my initial thought
(00:46):
on that series is I want to pick the Pacers.
But some interesting championship oods right now. New to the game,
no sweat, Download the DraftKings Sportsbook, gap bet just five
dollars and if your bet wins, you'll score three hundred
dollars in bonus bets. It's that easy. I don't know
the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use code hoops. That's code
hoops hoops for new customers to get three hundred dollars
(01:07):
in bonus bets if your bet wins. When you bet
just five bucks only on DraftKings, the Crown is yours.
Gambling problem called one hundred gambler In New York call
eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text hope
and why to four six seven three six y nine.
In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight
eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
(01:28):
visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Boothill Casino and Resort In Kansas twenty one plus age
in eligibility varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bet must
win to receive reward. Bonus bets expire one hundred and
sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible
gaming resources, see DKG dot co. Slash audio. All right,
(02:02):
welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody.
Hope all of you guys are having a great start
to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference
Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I went back and forth on this series a half
dozen times since last night, but I did find an
answer I will be revealing at the tail end of
the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine.
(02:23):
We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some
of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and
then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City
on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and
then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the
joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight
YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos.
Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't
misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we
get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super
(02:45):
helpful if you leave a rating in a review on
that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media
feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there.
In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question
so we can get to them throughout the remainder of
the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to
two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards
the end of the year where the end of the
bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed
(03:08):
managed to come back from down like fourteen with three
minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately
Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that
overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some
big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense
versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had
(03:30):
a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at
the rim got up in his face and was flexing
on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City
had taken control of until the final minutes, and it
was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon
that actually brought them back into it. So to two,
but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played
in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in
(03:54):
one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one
of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of
the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So,
as is always the case, I'm more looking into those
games for just opportunities to see what it looks like
when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the
games where you see something that might be translatable. Not
too much to take away. The metrics are just about
(04:15):
as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen
point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to
fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage
towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of
available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their
own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from
Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are
(04:39):
provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus
three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but
I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy
metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use.
So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where
(05:00):
by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team,
They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma
City had a forty three point win and a thirty
two point win in the series because there are a
bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never
gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and
the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so
to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of
the way that these odds will come out. I think
(05:21):
this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota
side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma
City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in
that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range.
But you can get Minnesota right now to win the
series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a
good price for a team that absolutely has a good
chance to win this series, even though we can all
(05:44):
agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota.
On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards.
Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the
regular season. They held him to twenty two points per
game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty
two two percent from three. They forced him into three
point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average.
(06:06):
It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex
Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in
particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games
he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double
teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and
they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it
without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch
(06:27):
and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's
got that unique combination of like the strength to hold
up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat
him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying,
especially in their first game that they played this year,
where he was just like getting physical with them off ball,
just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding,
and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat
(06:50):
Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup
than he did in his regular With his regular season
average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended
up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against
Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in
this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on
offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen
(07:13):
or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City
this year. I think he had a twenty seven point
game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled,
but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's
just playing at a much higher level than he was
when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I
think it was like December in the game that he
actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to,
(07:34):
on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow,
keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches.
But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into
ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay,
and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and
so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm
and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what.
(07:54):
But he also has to read the room and be like,
this is a team that's got a million dudes who
can defend guards and not a lot of guys who
can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job
to make sure as the point guard, or as the
on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs.
And one of the things we've talked about a lot
over the course of this playoff run is I kind
(08:15):
of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old
school two guard anyway, and so I want to see
the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for
him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For
guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next
challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought
Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced,
(08:36):
just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of
a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior,
but also rim protection with in terms of like real
vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and
he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't
necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector,
(08:57):
if that makes sense. And past that test and his
last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points,
five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the
field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma
City defense is gonna present kind of the best of
both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of
the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden
State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys,
(09:20):
but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big
difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of
guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be
less of a factor here, But I think just in
terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see,
he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him.
So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly
(09:43):
handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in
his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build
for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to
hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots.
JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in
three of the four matchups this year, but in the
one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well.
Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength
(10:06):
by beating him to spots and had the length to
kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall
exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on
Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying
to go through j dub In not having any success
because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again,
Julius is playing at a much higher level now than
he was back when that game took place. Julius is
(10:27):
going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout
this series, and so they're gonna need him to be
great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things
I want to keep an eye on in this series.
I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording.
This was one of the big swing factors for me.
I can't get out of my head the problem that
Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch
(10:50):
in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting.
And this is going to be a series where I
think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos
and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius,
and I think we could see a lot of that
similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting,
three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they
(11:11):
can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers
when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches.
So let's keep an eye on that in this series.
Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the
ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think
we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low
(11:32):
usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about
five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes,
but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession.
He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots
in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters,
So not too much to worry about on ball in
terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a
good amount of damage off ball as like a transition
scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty
(11:54):
one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in
the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a
good job of tracking it when he's in his help
and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an
offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two
offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have
to be a little attentive to him crashing out of
the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada
(12:15):
McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to
be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive
player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter,
active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent
on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had
a thirty point game and a twenty five point game
just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where
he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet
(12:38):
will be to be that effective kind of roam or
just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him
get free runways to the basket over and over again,
he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert.
Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year.
He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He
had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert
performance and that he makes some so much easier to
(13:00):
guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems
for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein
will be playing up off of him in ball screens,
up high in pick and roll. That was something we
talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the
level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry
about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat.
He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the
(13:23):
regular season in their one game, he did just get
two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good
job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass.
We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but
I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to
kind of have their roles minimized over the course of
this series as both teams lean more into Chet and
nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in
(13:44):
a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a
ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't
involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are
both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason.
Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante
and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me,
Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in
(14:06):
the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again,
closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante
alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down
to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before,
nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup
in the regular season. He can beat nail help with
above the break shooting. This was a big thing with
(14:27):
Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops
or against switches when they are just digging down off
the nail. He can get a clean look from like
twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing.
This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz
can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over
the top of contests, that's going to be a big
factor in this series. And then he just has a
(14:47):
lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City
smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they
go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the
course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive
responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches.
So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X
factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on
(15:07):
the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is
eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent,
But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if
you chase him off the line in a spot up situation,
he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's
driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball,
chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then
(15:30):
attacking him on defense in space to see if he
can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very
effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times
guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will
be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in
this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but
they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I
actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and
(15:52):
we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength
for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the
defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot
of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular,
has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against
OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in
the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a
crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at
(16:14):
one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense,
pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their
post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those
post entries could be the entryway to them getting out
in transition against this team. So that's going to be
the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages,
make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius
(16:35):
and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling.
That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game,
as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got
to create a clear passing window and then from there
play out of those advantages. I would love to see
Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series,
and then as a group, and this goes for both teams.
He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes.
(16:57):
That's going to be a big swing in this series,
all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the
matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely
fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He
had thirty seven or more and three of the four
matchups really had the three point shot going. He was
able to get in the lane and draw fouls an
absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in
(17:20):
this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to
do better than he did. He's got the length and
quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of
it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they
were picking him up further out, Very different than the
Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off
of him and containing and trying to bait him into
taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring
(17:41):
him and he was just going right around the first
guy and kind of getting a head of steam into
the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul
after foul. I would like to see, I know this
kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I
would like to see at least at some point an
attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and
contest style of defense against meaning like give him more
(18:01):
space play in that kind of like range where he
can contain the drive but get a late contest on
a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that
easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that
he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little
worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just
because that's who they are as a basketball team. We
will see, but once again, it'll be a team job.
(18:23):
I think the Keel will get a lot of reps
in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking
the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot
the ball very well from three in this matchup. He
made ten threes in the four games on over fifty
percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb.
I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's
(18:44):
gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency
over the years has been to die on screens from
time to time when he gets tired, So I think
it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves
will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all
the way to paint that often, or all the way
into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's
back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities
(19:05):
if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make
shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as
Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent
from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty
nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero
eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range
game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like
(19:25):
I could see him getting a lot of looks against
drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant
struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that.
Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after
helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for
Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes,
twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta
(19:47):
get good close outs and then keeping him off the
offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven,
but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because
it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with
Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking
up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives
him a free license to crash towards the front of
the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the
ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna
(20:09):
be about putting his body in front of him, you know,
and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can
get and then getting a good close out. I actually
like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting,
because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm
a little worried about him getting beat up on the
offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think
we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well,
(20:30):
especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize,
it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet
has been below a point per shot on catch and
shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six
for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think
both guys will be able to help in the lane.
They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts,
be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna
be off ball, he better be helping. And then on
(20:51):
Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with
their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there
on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep
getting good luck, the good looks that he got in
the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series.
So Check can swing this series in a big way
if he just hits the shots that he's been missing
so far in this postseason and then go go Bar
(21:12):
and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we
saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end
of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at
Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low,
or if you get a good contest off a high like,
you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super
interesting in that series because so many teams over the
(21:32):
course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh,
if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take
his floater, and it would just go in over and
over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy
I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot
the floater, and he forced him into a lot of
misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could
take a note from that, especially with his longer arms
(21:53):
and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters.
But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of
these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into
Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just
because of Jokic and the need they had to match
up with his size and strength. I could see him
going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare
(22:14):
for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't
be surprised if we looked back on this series in
both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game.
I think that's something to keep an eye on as
we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench
kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been
their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters,
(22:36):
like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs.
Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games
in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So
those are guys who are going to have to keep
an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on
like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again,
I went back and forth on this one a bunch
of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was
(22:58):
the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because
I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive
players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had.
But I could very easily say the exact same thing
about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys
are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't
(23:19):
score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my
mind was a lot of what I saw in Game
seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in
my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think
Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily
on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree,
(23:40):
the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession,
for every single inch, for simple things like post entries,
just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's
picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession,
and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout
the other way, these are the two top teams in
the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota
(24:03):
is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging
eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the
two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams
in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two
defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill
and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in.
So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in
(24:25):
six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series.
I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages,
I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting
those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that
actually ends up working out in their favor. And I
just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and
dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage
(24:46):
for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I
absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're
the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's
a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about
playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and
as a playmaker in the series. If he does that,
that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get
(25:06):
the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and
they do score effectively and draw two to the ball
and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball
over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in
offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas
and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma
City's role players that could play a role. And then again,
even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good
(25:27):
as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better
than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could
potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense.
Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance,
ended up being a series that ended up being a
game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a
little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because
(25:49):
they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism
by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I
don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much
in this series at all. Both of these teams are
super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be
comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think
even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the
(26:11):
same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers
stole Game one in New York, where I think home
court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so
keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is
the steel Game one. I think they have a good
chance to steal Game one because of the shock and
awe value of their defense. But over the course of
the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and
I think they have the better defense, and I think
(26:33):
it's enough of an advantage to make up for the
experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys,
that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely
appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone
enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously,
but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer
of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube,
(26:55):
you know, for a half hour or so, and then
after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot
tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get
informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all
that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan
for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then.
What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really
(27:16):
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume.
It's a great time of year to get out and
see some of these live events. We've got concerts and
comedy shows all over the country. I got out to
(27:37):
the Sphere for a three night set to see Dead
in Company last month. The NBA Playoffs are in full swing,
lots of good games to see there. The Major League
Baseball season is underway, and this is why I want
to give a shout out to the sponsor of today's video,
seat Geek. With over twenty eight million downloads, seat Geek
is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more
(27:58):
than seventy thousand events listed on including concerts, sports, festivals
and more. And like I said earlier, you can get
tickets to the NBA Playoffs now. I'm super excited to
see several of these series in the first round. Look
at all these tickets that you can find, and they'll
even tell you whether or not that ticket is a
particularly good deal. Here's an amazing deal for Game three.
(28:18):
Here's another great deal, another amazing deal. You can find
all these options on seat geek. Seek geek has your back.
Each ticket is rated on a scale of one to ten,
so you know exactly how much of a deal you're getting.
Green means good, red means bad. Plus every ticket is
backed by their buyer guarantee. You know I came through
for you guys. You can use code hoops ten that's
(28:40):
Hops ten for ten percent off your next set of
tickets at Sea gek. That's ten percent off any tickets
with promo code hoops ten. Make sure you click the
link in the description to download the app and have
the code automatically added to your account so you can
use it later and thank you seat Geek
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.