August 27, 2025 • 39 mins
Jason explains why he has Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James at No. 8 on his NBA player rankings including the strengths and weaknesses of Bron's game, how his age factors into the ranking, how he fits alongside Luka Doncic, and more. Then he gives his take on the start of EuroBasket for Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets, and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. All right, well, good to hoops tonight here
at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, hopefull of you guys
had a great weekend, got a jam packed show for you. Today.
(00:22):
We are moving on in our player rankings to number
eight Lebron James, a guy that I'm sure is going
to lead to a lot of frustration. He's the most
polarizing player in the NBA. But I really want to
dive into the reason why he's polarizing, as well as
why I have him ranked up at number eight this year.
You'd think it'd be easier to make that case, given
the fact that he finished sixth an MVP voting and
(00:43):
made second Team All NBA, but there's a hefty group
of NBA fans who think Lebron is pretty overrated at
this point. I'm excited to get into that topic and
debate it a little bit with you guys today, and
then hopefully you guys will have your counterpoints, which we
can get into in our mail bags later on. But
the second segments, we got six games worth of exhibition
(01:05):
basketball from Nicole Jokic, Luka, Doncic, and Giannis and Tennekumpo
in their friendlies as of the time of this recording
in their friendlies prepping for EuroBasket, I am going to
give brief thoughts on all three of them, more extensive
thoughts on Jokich and Luca because both of them have
kind of interesting stuff going on with their body that
I have takes about. So we'll have some EuroBasket thoughts
(01:27):
at the tail end of the show and then we'll
get out of here for the day. You guys know
the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops
Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of
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also super helpful if you leave a rating and a
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social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Make
(01:47):
sure you guys follow us there and the last but
not least, if you disagree with any of these rankings,
make a case in the comments put mailbag Colin. Make
your case for why you disagree, up or down, whatever
it may be, and we will get to it in
our mail bags moving forward. Mail bags are a fair game.
You can talk or ask about anything you guys want,
but I'm also going to be emphasizing some of your
(02:09):
player ranking centric questions when we get to that point.
All right, let's talk some basketball. So Lebron is easily
one of the most polarizing players in the league, and
he's become even more polarizing in this phase of his
career because it used to be that there was this
like obvious chunk of fans who had a beef with
(02:29):
him for whatever reason. It was like MJ fans, you know,
a lot of the older generation of basketball fans. And
then because of the Steph Curry Lebron rivalry, when the
Cavs and Warriors faced off in the finals every single
year for four straight years. It kind of feels like
a different era now when you look at how much
parody there is and how we have a different finals
matchup every year. But because of that era, there's a
(02:49):
big chunk of one of the largest fan bases in
the NBA that dislikes Lebron to a great extent. I've
struggled to understand that because you know, I've hated Steph
during that time, but I have such a great appreciation
and respect for him as as a basketball fan, and
I wish more people felt that way about Lebron, but
it is what it is. I'm excited to dive into it, though,
(03:10):
because I think one of the big reasons why there's
this kind of polarizing debate surrounding Lebron in his place
in the league centers around the fact that he used
to be a lot better. He has certainly declined to
a certain extent, and for whatever reason, Lebron gets graded
(03:30):
on like a curve in the negative sense by most
basketball fans, like we're going to talk about his durability.
His durability the way that it's discussed doesn't make any sense,
especially relative to other stars in the league who for
some reason that gets glossed over because they happen to
(03:52):
be twenty eight or thirty two, even though they're missing
more games. It's crazy the way that Lebron gets looked
at as the old broken down dude when he's sneaky
been one of the most reliable players in the league
over the last couple of years, especially really you know,
in you know, when you compare to the other stars
at the top of the league. Same thing goes with
(04:13):
like his overall level of play. Yeah, he's not as
good as he used to be, but he's still really
damn good. And there's this idea that like, oh, he
can't reach the same level, he can't reach the top
tier guys, there's a certain level of inconsistency. Well guess what,
once you get to number five on this list, there's
inconsistency for all the guys. It's so one of the
(04:36):
big things that I want to emphasize today is in
with respect to this discussion, Yeah, Lebron's old, there's certainly
risk that comes associated with that, but when you actually
look at him in a vacuum compared to the other
players in this league, he still ranks very highly in
my book. So let's dive into this a little bit deeper. So,
first of all, I think that there's this idea that
(04:58):
Lebron is un liable with his health, and I just
don't think that's the case just in the Superstar tier,
so just among the guys that I have in the
top fourteen, Lebron has played in more regular season games
over the last two seasons than obviously Kawhi and Embiid,
Victor wemin Yama, Luka, Doncic, Jiannison, Tennakoumpo, Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant,
(05:20):
Anthony Davis, and Donovan Mitchell. He literally has played in
more games over the last two years than nine of
the top fourteen players on this list. The only guys
in this tier who are clearly in another tier, like
clearly more reliable night tonight in terms of being available
(05:41):
and producing at a superstar level are Nicole Jokic, Chake
Yilis Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Those are the only three
guys who are like you can book them for seventy
five plus games every single year. It's obviously another tier above,
and Lebron has literally never missed a playoff game for
his team. Think about how many stars of miss playoff
games over the last couple of years. So I think
(06:04):
that label for him is actually unfair. Maybe he'll get
hurt this year, maybe he'll miss a bunch of time,
but if you think that's gonna happen, that's wishful thinking
on your part. And compared to most of the guys
on this list, he's actually one of the more reliable guys.
He had a growing injury last year, missed twelve games,
(06:24):
played seventy. Now what makes things complicated for Lebron and
the reason why even though he finished sixth an MVP voting,
I have him down at eight this year is Lebron's
age does cause him to kind of oscillate between several
different levels of play throughout the season. We're gonna dive
more into this concept later on in the show, But
(06:47):
the way I look at it is like there are
guys in this list of fourteen who could never reach
the level that Lebron reached in the time. In that
time spanning the end of the Anthony Davis era beginning
at the Luka Doncaje era, he reached the level there
that there are like legitimately guys on this list have
never reached. But then there are also guys like there's
(07:08):
a level that Lebron reached last year in the beginning
of the year where he was looking especially old or
that's a lower level than any of the guys on
this tier are going to reach, aside from obviously Kawhi
and Embiid who were dealing with injuries, Like there is
a weird wide range of outcomes with Lebron that stems
from his age. We're gonna dive a lot into that
(07:30):
concept in a little bit. I want to quickly just
run through his statistics and his metrics from this season.
Then we'll dig into some of the specifics about who
he is as a basketball player. At this point, seventy
games played, averaged twenty four points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.
Guess how many NBI players I guess how many NBA
players averaged at least twenty four points, seven rebounds, and
(07:51):
eight assists last year, two Nikola Jokic and Lebron James.
He also had one point six stocks per game. His
percentages fifty one percent from the field, thirty eight percent
from three to seventy eight percent from the line, fifty
seven percent in effective field goal percentage, and sixty percent
in true shooting. Let's dig into the play type data.
Lebron's playtype data was funny to dig into because even
(08:14):
with his inconsistencies in the level of play that he
reached at various points in the season, he's still just
a very reliable shot creator in the half court. We're
gonna talk more about this concept later, but like Lebron's
not as good at generating advantages as he used to
because he's older and he can't move as well, but
his ability to turn those advantages into quality shots for
(08:36):
his team as a high level playmaker is still right
up there with the very best players in the league.
He finished this year sixth in assists per game. Even
with his limitations in mobility, especially in one on one situations,
which we're going to dive into, he ran one three
hundred and ninety nine pick and rolls, ISOs and post
ups including passes this year, and on those possessions he
(08:57):
got one point zero two points per possession, which is solid.
It's not great by any means, but it's solid. As
we've consistently talked about over the years, if you can
run massive volume and get over a point per possession
in half court offense, that is a huge asset to
a team. And so yeah, he's not getting up in
that like one point oh seven, one point oh eight
(09:18):
that you're seeing the better shot creators in the league
get on massive volume, but he's still giving you reliable
half court shot creation. Some specifics, he was very good
in pick and roll one point zero five points per possession.
That makes sense, right, and pick and roll you're getting
a screen, so it's less one on one oriented on
Lebron's ability to gain an advantage on a guy just
(09:39):
manned a man versus in the ball screen, where he
has obviously that screen advantage that can get him downhill.
When he gets downhill, it unlocks some of his scoring
ability as well as his ability to pass out of it.
That one point zero five points per possession including passes
ranked was in the seventy eighth percentile and out of
the fifty two players to run at least five hundred
(09:59):
pick and rolls this here, he ranked seventeenth on this list.
So he's very good in pick and roll. He was
good shooting out of pick and rolls. He had He
hit thirty six percent of his pull up threes out
of pick and roll. That's one point zero seven points
per shot. That's very good. So if he got into
a ball screen and the guy died on the screen
or went under, Lebron was hitting it thirty six percent
of the time. That solid fifty four percent on twos,
(10:21):
mainly fueled by his ability to get to the rim.
Lebron is a decent short range scorer, but it's not
a strength of his At this point, he was forty
three percent on floaters, forty one percent on jumpers inside
of seventeen feet, So obviously not like Jalen Brunson surgical
from the short range, definitely not going to dominate games
(10:42):
with middies and push shots, but with his ability to
get to the rim mixed with mediocre, kind of middle
of the pack short range shot making, he was fifty
four percent on twos and he's still just completely ridiculous
getting to and finishing at the rim. I'm going to
save the stats here for later because it kind of
comes into play in several different types of play types
(11:02):
like transition, cutting, ISO post ups, all that kind of stuff.
But that's carrying his ability to get to and finish
at the rim is carrying a good chunk of his
pick and roll scoring. And then Lebron, like we mentioned earlier,
still just a remarkably gifted passer out of pick and roll.
If he can get his man on that screen and
get downhill, he's still incredibly good at setting up his
guys for lobs and for wide open threes. And that's
(11:24):
the thing. Even that older Lebron James still with sixth
in the entire league and assists per game, Trey Young,
Nikole Jokich, Tyre saliburtn Kate Cunningham, James Harden, and Lebron James.
He's right up there with those guys. Is one on
one stuff again a little more mixed. He ran seven
hundred and forty seven ISOs and post ups including passes,
generated seven hundred and thirty four points. That zero point
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nine to eight points per possession, which is only very
slightly above average. He was fifty sixth percentile in ISO,
fifty second percentile in the post. This is the real
place where his age is shown. On offense, he's just
not as capable of getting a step on defenders one
on one as he used to be. Right again, it's
(12:07):
worth mentioning he's still above average on massive volume there,
but it's just not the same dominant force that he
was in his prime. And again, that's really the important
thing that I want to keep driving home today, Like, yeah,
when you're comparing it to old Lebron, who literally is
in the conversation for the greatest basketball player ever, you're
going to be underwhelmed by some of this stuff. But
(12:29):
once you actually start to like put it down next
to the other stars in the league. It still holds
up pretty favorably. The main area I'm hoping he can
have a resurgence in is the post. Last year, the
year before last, I should say he was really good
in the post. He's one point one to two points
per possession. In theory, the post relies more on size
(12:51):
strength iq less on foot speed. Right, So, as a
Lakers fan, I'm hoping that he can have a bounce
back year in the post to improve some his one
on one numbers. But for the sake of this list,
I think we should look at him as a guy
who's lost a significant step in one on ones but
is still a very good pick and role player in
the league. So, how is Lebron, as you know, more
(13:13):
of a middle of the pack shot creator still as
a scorer able to get to twenty four point four
points per game on sixty percent trough shooting. First, his
remarkable ability to get to the rim. Forty year old
old ass Lebron James attempted the eleventh most total shots
(13:37):
at the rim in the entire NBA last year. Per game,
he ranked eighth. Old man Lebron James attempted the same
amount of shots at the rim as Shay Gilders Alexander
this year, And that's kind of what I'm talking about
in terms of, like this negative grading on a curve
that Lebron faces. Has Lebron lost this? Yeah, But how
(14:01):
do you guys discuss Shake guil Just Alexander and his
ability to get to the rim. Like, if you ever
have a conversation with a basketball fan today about Shake
kil Just Alexander, it's, oh my god, one of the
most gifted drivers of the basketball we've ever seen. That's
old man Lebron. That's what he did last year in
his efficiency there one point four points per attempt, ranked
(14:23):
fourth out of the eleven players in the league to
attempt at least five hundred shots there. That's been Lebron's
bread and butter his entire career, and he's still one
of the highest volume and efficiency rim finishers in the
entire league at his age, and that's a big part
of what allows him to be such an efficient scorer
despite being middle of the pack as a perimeter score.
(14:45):
Nothing to write home about, Like he's gonna hit a
decent amount of his pull up threes he's gonna hit,
you know, forty percent of his mid rangers and his
floaters not gonna you know, take that to the bank
as one of the elite perimeter scorers in the league.
But when you combine that with him still just being
such a remarkable to the rim force, it makes him
(15:06):
still such an efficient, high volume score. And then secondly,
I think Lebron has always been underrated as an all
around offensive player. There's this idea that Lebron has to
have the offense built around him, and I don't view
that as the case. It really hasn't been built around
him in years. It's become you know, they're variations Darvin
(15:27):
Ham's more five out approach, JJ Reddicks more like kind
of spread pick and roll four out approach, although he
also includes five out concepts. But in the last few
years it's become a lot of Dlo and Austin, now
Luca and Austin. It's a lot of Luke Lebron having
to function as a screener and having to function off
the ball. He's become a very good catch and shoot player.
(15:49):
Now two years in a row he's been great at it,
one point to two points per attempt. This last season.
He made forty five percent of his unguarded catch and
shoot jumpers. Last year, he got one point three to
five points per attempt in the playoffs against Minnesota. He
has functioned as an off ball scorer off of Luca.
He's good at finishing on cuts. He got one point
(16:11):
five to eight points per cut last year out of
one hundred and eighteen guys who logged at least fifty cuts.
That was the fifth most efficient finisher on cuts in
the league. He's excellent in transition. Lebron scored the ninth
most transition points per game in the entire NBA last year.
A lot of that benefiting off of those hit aheads
from other ball handlers on his team. All of that
(16:33):
has allowed him to function offensively off of Luca. As
you guys may remember, I was critical of Austin Reeves
last year for really struggling to play offense off of
Luca and off of Lebron. That's something he has to
improve on. Lebron has always been very good at finding
(16:53):
ways to be impactful offensively, even as his role changes
around him. Now, let's dig into the reality that Lebron
reaches different levels throughout the season Lebron basically hovers between
three different levels at this phase of his career. There's
the top tier superstar, the guy that we saw for
(17:14):
a little while right before his growing injury last year.
Then there's the second tier superstar, this is the guy
we saw for the majority of last year. We'll get
into those two versions of Lebron here in a minute.
But then there's the third tier star. This is that
floor that Lebron will reach that most of the guys
in this tier don't reach. This guy just shows up
every once in a while, usually early in the season,
(17:38):
and it's during these stretches that the noise surrounding Lebron
and his age starts to get really loud. Now, it's
worth mentioning that version of Lebron still has a pretty
high floor. So, for instance, in this last season, Lebron
had his longest version of this type of stretch for
the first twenty one games of the season. Lebron was
(17:58):
mediocre by his stand He averaged just twenty two points
per game on fifty seven percent true shooting, but he
also averaged eight rebounds and nine assists per game. Do
you know how many players in the NBA averaged at
least twenty two points and at least five rebounds and
five assists per game last year, let alone eight to nine,
(18:20):
but five and five. There are only eleven dudes who
reached that mark last year. So Lebron's basement as a
player is twenty two, eight and nine on fifty seven
percent trugh shooting, a level of production only about a
dozen players in the NBA can achieve. But and this
is where it gets complicated, because what I just described
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is still very much a second tier star. The reason
why I drop him to that third tier when he's
playing at this level is he really can get pretty
lazy on defense during these stretches. Again, it's usually early
in the season, and it's getting a little bit longer
with each passing season, but he can really start to
(19:03):
cut corners in terms of just his effort and energy
on that end of the four. I still think when
Lebron is engaged, he's not an all like, He's not
like a you know, when he's super healthy, he can
still reach that all defense level like he did in February,
which we'll talk about. But like Lebron in the playoffs
last year, he's a very good defender. But He's not
like a world beating defender anymore. He can't reach that ceiling.
(19:24):
But Lebron is still a very very good defensive player
when he gives a shit. But Lebron is an issue,
which is that for stretches of seasons, especially at the
beginning when the when the goal just feels so far away,
he can be an inconsistent effort and energy I on
the defensive end of the four and that can certainly
hurt your team there, and so that to me drops
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his overall impact in those phases to that of a
third tier star. But that's the basement. Lebron spent the
vast majority of last season playing well above that level,
but it's important for us to acknowledge that he has
as that basement, and that's a big part of why
I put him down at eight, despite him reaching heights
higher than that during the season, most of the guys
(20:07):
in the Superstar tier never dipped that low, and that's
why I kind of gave that as a hit to
him on this list. But then Lebron also reached a
level in the middle of the season when both Anthony
Davis and Luca were out and he was literally playing
like the MVP of the league and carrying the team
to win after win after win against really good teams.
(20:33):
And we're going to go into those specifics here in
just a second. But that's what makes Lebron such a
complicated player to bring. So let's take a look at
Lebron's ceiling. This stretch that I keep referring to where
Lebron reached that top tier superstar level. It was sixteen
games long, so a little under a fourth of the season.
Call it like a fifth of the season. From January
twenty eighth to March sixth, which was his final great
(20:55):
game before he heard his growing again in the Celtics game.
During that stretch, he averaged twenty nine points, eight rebounds,
nine assists on sixty five percent true shooting, so the
same Swiss army knife that we've always known Lebron to be.
But also twenty nine points per game on sixty five
(21:17):
percent true shooting. He was fifty four percent from the
field forty one percent from three on seven attempts per game.
He was literally the best defender on the number one
defense in the NBA in that span. That's right, Anthony Davis.
In that entire span from January twenty eighth to March sixth,
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when the Lakers were the number one defense in the league.
Anthony Davis literally played just nine minutes and fifty seconds
of total minute of total game time in that entire span.
Played a little bit in the first game, got hurt,
we didn't see him again in a Laker jersey, and
then Luca returned at the end of that stretch. Towards
the end of that stretch, but he was a fat,
out of shape version of himself, wasn't nearly as good
(22:00):
on offense as Lebron at that specific point in time,
and Lebron was literally carrying the defense still. And during
that stretch, the Lakers went thirteen and three with Lebron
basically leading the way as the superstar. They beat the
Knicks twice, they beat the Clippers three times, they beat
the Warriors. When Luca returned, they beat the Nuggets in Denver,
they beat the Timberwolves. I literally cannot overstate how well
(22:24):
Lebron played in that stretch. As a fan, it was
like going back in time and watching twenty eighteen. Lebron
again twenty nine to eight nine on sixty five percent
truugh shooting while anchoring the best defense in the league
and just beating great team after great team. It was
amazing to watch. And again, that was a level that
(22:45):
many of the guys in this top fourteen have quite
literally never reached in their entire basketball lives. And that
is what makes this so complicated. So let's zoom out
and let's talk about why put on at eight. Lebron
has actually sneakily been one of the most consistently reliable
(23:07):
and productive players in the NBA over the last two seasons.
I posted this stat on Twitter a few weeks back,
but it's crazy. Guess how many players in the NBA
have played in at least seventy games each of the
last two seasons, so consistently available and to over the
course of those two seasons average at least twenty five
(23:28):
to five and five on at least sixty percent trough shooting.
So again, just think of that as just consistent superstar
production at least seventy games per season and at least
superstar production of twenty five to five and five on
at least sixty percent through shooting. Three players hit that,
Mark Nikole Jokic and shay Giljes Alexander the last two
(23:49):
MVPs of the league in Lebron James Again, as I said,
it's important and it's fair for us to discuss Lebron's
health and his age as it pertains to which ceiling
he can reach. And like what you get in the
postseason matters like twenty twenty three, you get a broken
(24:09):
foot version of Lebron that you know was a lesser
version of the playoff Lebron we've seen over the years.
Twenty twenty four, they didn't lose to Denver because of Lebron.
Lebron was incredible in that series. I would argue he
played at a top tier superstar level in that series,
a just clutch shot after clutch shot after clutch shot,
and and just the Nuggets were better, and the Nuggets
are one of the great teams of this era. And
(24:30):
then last year against Minnesota kind of in between those
two levels, and that that's the fair discussion we can
have as it pertains to which ceiling Lebron can reach.
And that's why he's eighth and not fifth, right, But
in terms of actually being available to his team and
reaching superstar production, Lebron has actually been one of the
(24:52):
most reliable guys in the league over the last couple
of years. He's never even missed a playoff game in
his twenty two season career. So yeah, he's old, and
maybe maybe this is the year he finally suffers a
severe injury. Maybe this year he gets hurt and misses
a bunch of time. But if you're banking on that,
it's wishful thinking compared to reality, and especially compared to
(25:13):
the other superstars in this league, who for whatever reason,
get held to a different standard just because they're young.
They miss games, nobody cares because they're between twenty eight
and thirty two. They are inconsistent when it comes to
meeting the top tier superstar standard. Who cares? But because
it's Lebron and he's old, it's something everybody hyper focuses on.
(25:33):
So that's why I have Lebron at number eight this year.
Now we have one last bonus Lebron topic before we
get to the EuroBasket stuff, because I know Lebron haters
very well. We are almost certainly going to get a
bunch of comments under this video of people glombing onto
Lebron's on and off numbers this year, and the stat
is real, So let's start there. The Lakers were six
(25:56):
point nine points per one hundred possessions worse this year
with Lebron on the floor versus off. Now for starters,
it's it's a statistical outlier in every single season of
Lebron James's career. I literally went back on cleaning the
glass and looked at every single season, including the early
Calves years, the Miami Heat years, the second Calves years,
(26:17):
the Lakers years, every single season of Lebron's career. The
team has been substantially better with him on the floor
versus off every single one twenty one consecutive years, even recently,
old Man Lebron. Twenty twenty four Lebron was not as
good as twenty twenty five Lebron. Twenty twenty five Lebron
received more MVP consideration, was second team all the NBA,
(26:38):
was better defensively, reached a higher ceiling. He was a
better player twenty twenty four Lebron. The Lakers were eight
points better per one hundre possessions with Lebron on verse
off in twenty twenty three, ten points better twenty twenty two,
three points better, twenty twenty one, thirteen points better twenty
twenty eleven points better, twenty nineteen nine points better. Again,
you go back further in his career, it gets even crazier.
(27:01):
There's like a half dozen years where he's thirteen plus
points better. Two thousand and nine, Lebron, the first year
he won his MVP, the Cavs were eighteen points better
per one hundred possessions when Lebron was on the floor
versus off. So it is quite literally the most obvious
statistical outlier that I can remember seeing in Lebron's career.
(27:22):
So I've almost inclined to discount it entirely, but let's
dive into it any What caused this outlier piece of data.
It comes down to a couple things. First of all,
Lebron was second on the Lakers roster in minutes, so
the sample size of them having a higher net rating
was actually substantially smaller. He was on the floor for
most of the time, including all the minutes that the
(27:44):
starters were out there, and closing every single game for
a team that won fifty games and was the third
seed in the Western Conference. So if you're under the
impression that he was hurting the team, frankly, you're an idiot. Secondly,
there were a couple of lineup in regularities to Lebron
having to anchor many of Los Angeles's worst lineups, and
those lineups didn't perform very well. And if there's a
(28:06):
lesson to be learned, because like basically go it was,
JJ kind of made a strategic effort to anchor Anthony
Davis with more ball handling, right, and so Lebron often
had to anchor these bench units where he was like
the only ball handler and they'd have like a G
League center because of the week center rotation, and those
lineups got rolled. And there's no doubt that Lebron isn't
as capable of floor raising bad NBA players anymore, and
(28:29):
that maybe something that JJ Reddick has to address moving forward.
But even within that context, when I see twenty one
consecutive seasons of excellent on off numbers, including recent seasons
of old man Lebron, who wasn't even as good as
the player we saw this last year, I'm inclined, excuse me,
(28:50):
I'm inclined to basically just consider it a statistical outlier.
And again, like Lebron more or less was the same
player at this year than he was last year, and
the data looks so different. It looks like an outlier
to me. But again, this kind of floor raising piece,
this inability to carry inferior lineups the way he used to,
(29:13):
that inconsistency of the level of player that he can reach,
is all part of the reason why a guy that
can reach the ceiling lebron reached in February ranks down
at number eight for me this year. Now, let's do
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see dknng co slash audio. I watched a bunch of
(31:06):
tape of Jannis Luca and Nicole Jokic and their early
friendlies as they prepare for EuroBasket, So I wanted to
quick touch on all three of these guys here for
about ten minutes. First of all, Luka Doncic, I just
think he looks amazing physically. He's very clearly much leaner.
He also looks to have maintained much of his strength,
(31:26):
which means that they're clearly staying dedicated to the weight
room through this process. Again, like the idea is you
don't want to get skinny, you know, Like I remember
when Lebron went on his like weird fish diet in
twenty fourteen. He came into the twenty fifteen season like
considerably carrying less muscle mass, and it was something that
was a bad idea, and you could tell like Lebron
knew it, like he was like, oh shit, Like this
(31:48):
diet that I went on was not a good idea.
And I remember even talked before the season, He's like, oh,
I'm gonna be quicker this year. And he may have
been a tiny bit quicker, but that lack of strength
ended up really hurting him. And then almost immediately Lebron
went back to a different diet and loaded up in
the weight room and got his muscle mass back. Right,
I can see several examples of Luca looking like he
(32:09):
has that extra burst while still having the strength to
power through people. His Euro steps have more of like
a side to side pop to them. There were several
like examples of him changing direction at full full speed
that looked really good, like chaining together lots of moves
and being able to really pop side to side and
shed defenders, especially driving close out, so you can see
(32:31):
like a real quickness to his first step that really
didn't seem to be the case last year. So I
think overall the physical transformation is going to be huge
for him. I'm very, very excited to see the level
that Luca can reach this year. Now some specifics. His
play type efficiency in the two friendlies have been off
the charts for sylvania one point one sission of points
(32:54):
per possession, including passes on fifty eight, pick and rolls, ISOs,
and post ups. He's been excellent in all three categories.
His jumper's been a bit off four for eight off
the catch, which is fine. Obviously, He's just six for
twenty one off of off the dribble jump shots so far.
That's always a rhythm thing. I actually expect Luca to
have a good perimeter jump shooting season, driven by his
improved conditioning. Step back threes are all about getting separation
(33:17):
in the lyft, and that can often become a problem
when you tire out, and I think Luca is going
to be in good shape this year. He's five for
seven on floaters. That's a really good sign. If you
guys remember his short range touch was a major issue
last year, so that was something I thought was a
really good sign. I think in general that's super important.
And this is the one weird thing. He's not taking
(33:38):
mid range jumpers at all. Out of the twenty nine
jump shots he took in the two games, just one
of them was a mid range two, And I really
think that's an important part of his game. When he's
clicking on all cylinders. Again, it's like the Anthony Edwards
debate we were having surrounding shake kiods. As Alexander, there's a
delicate balance between large sample efficiency that can come from
(33:58):
heavily indexing tour ards threes and the possession to possession
consistency and the kind of like durability against rough shooting
nights that you can have if you mix in more
short range scoring. So on the one hand five or
seven on floaters in two games. Like, I think that's
a good sign that Lucas getting some of his floater
touched back. But the jump shot piece him relying almost
(34:20):
entirely on threes is not something that I love. But again,
and this is something I want to be clear about.
Even with the five for seven, even with the poor shooting,
the six for twenty one on the off the dribble
jump shots, I'm not really concerned with shot making at
this point in the summer. It's just such a small
sample size, especially when we're just looking at a couple
of friendlies. I'm mainly concerned by just how these guys
(34:42):
look physically, and I'm just thrilled with how Luca looks physically,
and I'm super excited to watch him this year. Nikoley Okic.
So I was having dinner with oamar Is on about
a week ago and he was like telling me, he's
like he's like, dude, Jokic looks like he's put on
some weight. And I was like, wow, really okay. So,
like I go home and I dig into the film
(35:03):
and he's still moving really well, like moving just fine.
And what's really fascinating to me about that is, Like
I think like Jokic generally is kind of dowe, right,
and so there's no way to tell how much of
that is, Like maybe he's worked out a little bit
(35:23):
this summer and put on some muscle, or maybe he's
put on a little bit of fat, or maybe some
combination of the two. But this is what Adam and
I got into that night. Like Adam was arguing to
me that it actually might be good for him to
be bigger under the circumstances that they're playing in this
particular year. And I think I agree with him. Jokic
(35:46):
being bigger is the right approach when you factor in
one this Nuggets team is much deeper than last year,
so they should be able to keep his minutes down. Again,
what I'm always scared of when a guy's carrying extra
weight is the wear and tear on the lower body.
And so even if like even for a player puts
on muscle, like if you're just weighing fifteen pounds more,
(36:09):
your every cut, every change of direction, every jump, every landing,
all of that just wears your lower body down more. Right, So,
like the ability to keep his minutes in check by
having a legitimate backup center. By having just a much
deeper rotation with which you can carry yourself through the
regular season, that should allow them to carry a bigger
(36:31):
Yokic throughout the season. The second piece of it is
acknowledge reality, and that is that Oklahoma City defended Jokic
into the worst three game stretch of playoff basketball that
we've ever seen from him, and they did it by
having Isaiah Hartenstein overplay his right shoulder with chet holmgrin
behind and then just swarming him with their perimeter guys.
I think Jokic carrying some more strength and weight to
(36:54):
handle that swarming attack would actually be really helpful. His
jumpers off, He's just one for eight so far, and
the one he made was kind of like a grifty
like pump, fake lean in and one that he got.
But as I was saying with Luca, I'm not really
concerned with small sample shooting numbers like that. Excuse me.
I'm more concerned with just how guys look physically in
(37:15):
these tournaments, and I think Jokic like he's mauling everybody
in these friendli It's like he's on seventeen post ups
so far in these games. He's generated one point four
to seven points per possession, including passes. It's just completely ridiculous.
And he's literally just tossing people around like rag dolls. Yeah, honest,
(37:35):
Just very briefly on him. He's only played one game.
He's only at the time of this recording, he's just
played in one friendly against Latvia. But he looks fantastic.
He had twenty five points on twelve shots, bullying everybody
on Latvia through the rim, several possessions where like dudes
were kind of draped on him and he just powered
through him with that shoulder and just goes right to
the front of the rim. You know, just classic y honest.
And then the jumper looked great. At the risk of
(37:57):
being hypocritical after I just said that, I'm not too
concerned about jump shooting here. It's more just that, specifically
with Yiannis, I'm excited about jump shooting right because he's
just kind of become a pretty reliable mid range guy.
We talked about that last year often, and once again,
his first game playing you know, real five on five,
serious basketball in a long time, hits a turnaround jumper
(38:19):
over his right shoulder. HiT's like a one leg fade
away off the right block. He gets three more pull
up mid rangers out of hesitation dribbles, just like that
little touch that he's demonstrating. Again, that's a real small
sample and I'm not overreacting to it. But just over
the last year, Giannis has shown a proficiency in the
mid range as a jump shooter that I think bodes
(38:40):
really well for him as he develops into an older
half court score. But overall, I'm just super excited for
your basket this year. We're gonna have some kind of
coverage of it when we get to that point. I
can't promise that we're certainly not gonna cover every game,
but we got three of the top four players in
the world playing in this tournament. We should get some
really high level basketball, and we will definitely cover it
to search to a certain extent this year. All right, guys,
(39:01):
That's all I have for today is always sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We
will be back on Wednesday with number seven. I will
see you guys then.
The volume. All right, well, good to hoops tonight here
at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, hopefull of you guys
had a great weekend, got a jam packed show for you. Today.
(00:22):
We are moving on in our player rankings to number
eight Lebron James, a guy that I'm sure is going
to lead to a lot of frustration. He's the most
polarizing player in the NBA. But I really want to
dive into the reason why he's polarizing, as well as
why I have him ranked up at number eight this year.
You'd think it'd be easier to make that case, given
the fact that he finished sixth an MVP voting and
(00:43):
made second Team All NBA, but there's a hefty group
of NBA fans who think Lebron is pretty overrated at
this point. I'm excited to get into that topic and
debate it a little bit with you guys today, and
then hopefully you guys will have your counterpoints, which we
can get into in our mail bags later on. But
the second segments, we got six games worth of exhibition
(01:05):
basketball from Nicole Jokic, Luka, Doncic, and Giannis and Tennekumpo
in their friendlies as of the time of this recording
in their friendlies prepping for EuroBasket, I am going to
give brief thoughts on all three of them, more extensive
thoughts on Jokich and Luca because both of them have
kind of interesting stuff going on with their body that
I have takes about. So we'll have some EuroBasket thoughts
(01:27):
at the tail end of the show and then we'll
get out of here for the day. You guys know
the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops
Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so
you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about o
podcast few wherever you catch podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's
also super helpful if you leave a rating and a
review on that front. Jackson's doing incredible work on our
social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. Make
(01:47):
sure you guys follow us there and the last but
not least, if you disagree with any of these rankings,
make a case in the comments put mailbag Colin. Make
your case for why you disagree, up or down, whatever
it may be, and we will get to it in
our mail bags moving forward. Mail bags are a fair game.
You can talk or ask about anything you guys want,
but I'm also going to be emphasizing some of your
(02:09):
player ranking centric questions when we get to that point.
All right, let's talk some basketball. So Lebron is easily
one of the most polarizing players in the league, and
he's become even more polarizing in this phase of his
career because it used to be that there was this
like obvious chunk of fans who had a beef with
(02:29):
him for whatever reason. It was like MJ fans, you know,
a lot of the older generation of basketball fans. And
then because of the Steph Curry Lebron rivalry, when the
Cavs and Warriors faced off in the finals every single
year for four straight years. It kind of feels like
a different era now when you look at how much
parody there is and how we have a different finals
matchup every year. But because of that era, there's a
(02:49):
big chunk of one of the largest fan bases in
the NBA that dislikes Lebron to a great extent. I've
struggled to understand that because you know, I've hated Steph
during that time, but I have such a great appreciation
and respect for him as as a basketball fan, and
I wish more people felt that way about Lebron, but
it is what it is. I'm excited to dive into it, though,
(03:10):
because I think one of the big reasons why there's
this kind of polarizing debate surrounding Lebron in his place
in the league centers around the fact that he used
to be a lot better. He has certainly declined to
a certain extent, and for whatever reason, Lebron gets graded
(03:30):
on like a curve in the negative sense by most
basketball fans, like we're going to talk about his durability.
His durability the way that it's discussed doesn't make any sense,
especially relative to other stars in the league who for
some reason that gets glossed over because they happen to
(03:52):
be twenty eight or thirty two, even though they're missing
more games. It's crazy the way that Lebron gets looked
at as the old broken down dude when he's sneaky
been one of the most reliable players in the league
over the last couple of years, especially really you know,
in you know, when you compare to the other stars
at the top of the league. Same thing goes with
(04:13):
like his overall level of play. Yeah, he's not as
good as he used to be, but he's still really
damn good. And there's this idea that like, oh, he
can't reach the same level, he can't reach the top
tier guys, there's a certain level of inconsistency. Well guess what,
once you get to number five on this list, there's
inconsistency for all the guys. It's so one of the
(04:36):
big things that I want to emphasize today is in
with respect to this discussion, Yeah, Lebron's old, there's certainly
risk that comes associated with that, but when you actually
look at him in a vacuum compared to the other
players in this league, he still ranks very highly in
my book. So let's dive into this a little bit deeper. So,
first of all, I think that there's this idea that
(04:58):
Lebron is un liable with his health, and I just
don't think that's the case just in the Superstar tier,
so just among the guys that I have in the
top fourteen, Lebron has played in more regular season games
over the last two seasons than obviously Kawhi and Embiid,
Victor wemin Yama, Luka, Doncic, Jiannison, Tennakoumpo, Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant,
(05:20):
Anthony Davis, and Donovan Mitchell. He literally has played in
more games over the last two years than nine of
the top fourteen players on this list. The only guys
in this tier who are clearly in another tier, like
clearly more reliable night tonight in terms of being available
(05:41):
and producing at a superstar level are Nicole Jokic, Chake
Yilis Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Those are the only three
guys who are like you can book them for seventy
five plus games every single year. It's obviously another tier above,
and Lebron has literally never missed a playoff game for
his team. Think about how many stars of miss playoff
games over the last couple of years. So I think
(06:04):
that label for him is actually unfair. Maybe he'll get
hurt this year, maybe he'll miss a bunch of time,
but if you think that's gonna happen, that's wishful thinking
on your part. And compared to most of the guys
on this list, he's actually one of the more reliable guys.
He had a growing injury last year, missed twelve games,
(06:24):
played seventy. Now what makes things complicated for Lebron and
the reason why even though he finished sixth an MVP voting,
I have him down at eight this year is Lebron's
age does cause him to kind of oscillate between several
different levels of play throughout the season. We're gonna dive
more into this concept later on in the show, But
(06:47):
the way I look at it is like there are
guys in this list of fourteen who could never reach
the level that Lebron reached in the time. In that
time spanning the end of the Anthony Davis era beginning
at the Luka Doncaje era, he reached the level there
that there are like legitimately guys on this list have
never reached. But then there are also guys like there's
(07:08):
a level that Lebron reached last year in the beginning
of the year where he was looking especially old or
that's a lower level than any of the guys on
this tier are going to reach, aside from obviously Kawhi
and Embiid who were dealing with injuries, Like there is
a weird wide range of outcomes with Lebron that stems
from his age. We're gonna dive a lot into that
(07:30):
concept in a little bit. I want to quickly just
run through his statistics and his metrics from this season.
Then we'll dig into some of the specifics about who
he is as a basketball player. At this point, seventy
games played, averaged twenty four points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.
Guess how many NBI players I guess how many NBA
players averaged at least twenty four points, seven rebounds, and
(07:51):
eight assists last year, two Nikola Jokic and Lebron James.
He also had one point six stocks per game. His
percentages fifty one percent from the field, thirty eight percent
from three to seventy eight percent from the line, fifty
seven percent in effective field goal percentage, and sixty percent
in true shooting. Let's dig into the play type data.
Lebron's playtype data was funny to dig into because even
(08:14):
with his inconsistencies in the level of play that he
reached at various points in the season, he's still just
a very reliable shot creator in the half court. We're
gonna talk more about this concept later, but like Lebron's
not as good at generating advantages as he used to
because he's older and he can't move as well, but
his ability to turn those advantages into quality shots for
(08:36):
his team as a high level playmaker is still right
up there with the very best players in the league.
He finished this year sixth in assists per game. Even
with his limitations in mobility, especially in one on one situations,
which we're going to dive into, he ran one three
hundred and ninety nine pick and rolls, ISOs and post
ups including passes this year, and on those possessions he
(08:57):
got one point zero two points per possession, which is solid.
It's not great by any means, but it's solid. As
we've consistently talked about over the years, if you can
run massive volume and get over a point per possession
in half court offense, that is a huge asset to
a team. And so yeah, he's not getting up in
that like one point oh seven, one point oh eight
(09:18):
that you're seeing the better shot creators in the league
get on massive volume, but he's still giving you reliable
half court shot creation. Some specifics, he was very good
in pick and roll one point zero five points per possession.
That makes sense, right, and pick and roll you're getting
a screen, so it's less one on one oriented on
Lebron's ability to gain an advantage on a guy just
(09:39):
manned a man versus in the ball screen, where he
has obviously that screen advantage that can get him downhill.
When he gets downhill, it unlocks some of his scoring
ability as well as his ability to pass out of it.
That one point zero five points per possession including passes
ranked was in the seventy eighth percentile and out of
the fifty two players to run at least five hundred
(09:59):
pick and rolls this here, he ranked seventeenth on this list.
So he's very good in pick and roll. He was
good shooting out of pick and rolls. He had He
hit thirty six percent of his pull up threes out
of pick and roll. That's one point zero seven points
per shot. That's very good. So if he got into
a ball screen and the guy died on the screen
or went under, Lebron was hitting it thirty six percent
of the time. That solid fifty four percent on twos,
(10:21):
mainly fueled by his ability to get to the rim.
Lebron is a decent short range scorer, but it's not
a strength of his At this point, he was forty
three percent on floaters, forty one percent on jumpers inside
of seventeen feet, So obviously not like Jalen Brunson surgical
from the short range, definitely not going to dominate games
(10:42):
with middies and push shots, but with his ability to
get to the rim mixed with mediocre, kind of middle
of the pack short range shot making, he was fifty
four percent on twos and he's still just completely ridiculous
getting to and finishing at the rim. I'm going to
save the stats here for later because it kind of
comes into play in several different types of play types
(11:02):
like transition, cutting, ISO post ups, all that kind of stuff.
But that's carrying his ability to get to and finish
at the rim is carrying a good chunk of his
pick and roll scoring. And then Lebron, like we mentioned earlier,
still just a remarkably gifted passer out of pick and roll.
If he can get his man on that screen and
get downhill, he's still incredibly good at setting up his
guys for lobs and for wide open threes. And that's
(11:24):
the thing. Even that older Lebron James still with sixth
in the entire league and assists per game, Trey Young,
Nikole Jokich, Tyre saliburtn Kate Cunningham, James Harden, and Lebron James.
He's right up there with those guys. Is one on
one stuff again a little more mixed. He ran seven
hundred and forty seven ISOs and post ups including passes,
generated seven hundred and thirty four points. That zero point
(11:47):
nine to eight points per possession, which is only very
slightly above average. He was fifty sixth percentile in ISO,
fifty second percentile in the post. This is the real
place where his age is shown. On offense, he's just
not as capable of getting a step on defenders one
on one as he used to be. Right again, it's
(12:07):
worth mentioning he's still above average on massive volume there,
but it's just not the same dominant force that he
was in his prime. And again, that's really the important
thing that I want to keep driving home today, Like, yeah,
when you're comparing it to old Lebron, who literally is
in the conversation for the greatest basketball player ever, you're
going to be underwhelmed by some of this stuff. But
(12:29):
once you actually start to like put it down next
to the other stars in the league. It still holds
up pretty favorably. The main area I'm hoping he can
have a resurgence in is the post. Last year, the
year before last, I should say he was really good
in the post. He's one point one to two points
per possession. In theory, the post relies more on size
(12:51):
strength iq less on foot speed. Right, So, as a
Lakers fan, I'm hoping that he can have a bounce
back year in the post to improve some his one
on one numbers. But for the sake of this list,
I think we should look at him as a guy
who's lost a significant step in one on ones but
is still a very good pick and role player in
the league. So, how is Lebron, as you know, more
(13:13):
of a middle of the pack shot creator still as
a scorer able to get to twenty four point four
points per game on sixty percent trough shooting. First, his
remarkable ability to get to the rim. Forty year old
old ass Lebron James attempted the eleventh most total shots
(13:37):
at the rim in the entire NBA last year. Per game,
he ranked eighth. Old man Lebron James attempted the same
amount of shots at the rim as Shay Gilders Alexander
this year, And that's kind of what I'm talking about
in terms of, like this negative grading on a curve
that Lebron faces. Has Lebron lost this? Yeah, But how
(14:01):
do you guys discuss Shake guil Just Alexander and his
ability to get to the rim. Like, if you ever
have a conversation with a basketball fan today about Shake
kil Just Alexander, it's, oh my god, one of the
most gifted drivers of the basketball we've ever seen. That's
old man Lebron. That's what he did last year in
his efficiency there one point four points per attempt, ranked
(14:23):
fourth out of the eleven players in the league to
attempt at least five hundred shots there. That's been Lebron's
bread and butter his entire career, and he's still one
of the highest volume and efficiency rim finishers in the
entire league at his age, and that's a big part
of what allows him to be such an efficient scorer
despite being middle of the pack as a perimeter score.
(14:45):
Nothing to write home about, Like he's gonna hit a
decent amount of his pull up threes he's gonna hit,
you know, forty percent of his mid rangers and his
floaters not gonna you know, take that to the bank
as one of the elite perimeter scorers in the league.
But when you combine that with him still just being
such a remarkable to the rim force, it makes him
(15:06):
still such an efficient, high volume score. And then secondly,
I think Lebron has always been underrated as an all
around offensive player. There's this idea that Lebron has to
have the offense built around him, and I don't view
that as the case. It really hasn't been built around
him in years. It's become you know, they're variations Darvin
(15:27):
Ham's more five out approach, JJ Reddicks more like kind
of spread pick and roll four out approach, although he
also includes five out concepts. But in the last few
years it's become a lot of Dlo and Austin, now
Luca and Austin. It's a lot of Luke Lebron having
to function as a screener and having to function off
the ball. He's become a very good catch and shoot player.
(15:49):
Now two years in a row he's been great at it,
one point to two points per attempt. This last season.
He made forty five percent of his unguarded catch and
shoot jumpers. Last year, he got one point three to
five points per attempt in the playoffs against Minnesota. He
has functioned as an off ball scorer off of Luca.
He's good at finishing on cuts. He got one point
(16:11):
five to eight points per cut last year out of
one hundred and eighteen guys who logged at least fifty cuts.
That was the fifth most efficient finisher on cuts in
the league. He's excellent in transition. Lebron scored the ninth
most transition points per game in the entire NBA last year.
A lot of that benefiting off of those hit aheads
from other ball handlers on his team. All of that
(16:33):
has allowed him to function offensively off of Luca. As
you guys may remember, I was critical of Austin Reeves
last year for really struggling to play offense off of
Luca and off of Lebron. That's something he has to
improve on. Lebron has always been very good at finding
(16:53):
ways to be impactful offensively, even as his role changes
around him. Now, let's dig into the reality that Lebron
reaches different levels throughout the season Lebron basically hovers between
three different levels at this phase of his career. There's
the top tier superstar, the guy that we saw for
(17:14):
a little while right before his growing injury last year.
Then there's the second tier superstar, this is the guy
we saw for the majority of last year. We'll get
into those two versions of Lebron here in a minute.
But then there's the third tier star. This is that
floor that Lebron will reach that most of the guys
in this tier don't reach. This guy just shows up
every once in a while, usually early in the season,
(17:38):
and it's during these stretches that the noise surrounding Lebron
and his age starts to get really loud. Now, it's
worth mentioning that version of Lebron still has a pretty
high floor. So, for instance, in this last season, Lebron
had his longest version of this type of stretch for
the first twenty one games of the season. Lebron was
(17:58):
mediocre by his stand He averaged just twenty two points
per game on fifty seven percent true shooting, but he
also averaged eight rebounds and nine assists per game. Do
you know how many players in the NBA averaged at
least twenty two points and at least five rebounds and
five assists per game last year, let alone eight to nine,
(18:20):
but five and five. There are only eleven dudes who
reached that mark last year. So Lebron's basement as a
player is twenty two, eight and nine on fifty seven
percent trugh shooting, a level of production only about a
dozen players in the NBA can achieve. But and this
is where it gets complicated, because what I just described
(18:42):
is still very much a second tier star. The reason
why I drop him to that third tier when he's
playing at this level is he really can get pretty
lazy on defense during these stretches. Again, it's usually early
in the season, and it's getting a little bit longer
with each passing season, but he can really start to
(19:03):
cut corners in terms of just his effort and energy
on that end of the four. I still think when
Lebron is engaged, he's not an all like, He's not
like a you know, when he's super healthy, he can
still reach that all defense level like he did in February,
which we'll talk about. But like Lebron in the playoffs
last year, he's a very good defender. But He's not
like a world beating defender anymore. He can't reach that ceiling.
(19:24):
But Lebron is still a very very good defensive player
when he gives a shit. But Lebron is an issue,
which is that for stretches of seasons, especially at the
beginning when the when the goal just feels so far away,
he can be an inconsistent effort and energy I on
the defensive end of the four and that can certainly
hurt your team there, and so that to me drops
(19:45):
his overall impact in those phases to that of a
third tier star. But that's the basement. Lebron spent the
vast majority of last season playing well above that level,
but it's important for us to acknowledge that he has
as that basement, and that's a big part of why
I put him down at eight, despite him reaching heights
higher than that during the season, most of the guys
(20:07):
in the Superstar tier never dipped that low, and that's
why I kind of gave that as a hit to
him on this list. But then Lebron also reached a
level in the middle of the season when both Anthony
Davis and Luca were out and he was literally playing
like the MVP of the league and carrying the team
to win after win after win against really good teams.
(20:33):
And we're going to go into those specifics here in
just a second. But that's what makes Lebron such a
complicated player to bring. So let's take a look at
Lebron's ceiling. This stretch that I keep referring to where
Lebron reached that top tier superstar level. It was sixteen
games long, so a little under a fourth of the season.
Call it like a fifth of the season. From January
twenty eighth to March sixth, which was his final great
(20:55):
game before he heard his growing again in the Celtics game.
During that stretch, he averaged twenty nine points, eight rebounds,
nine assists on sixty five percent true shooting, so the
same Swiss army knife that we've always known Lebron to be.
But also twenty nine points per game on sixty five
(21:17):
percent true shooting. He was fifty four percent from the
field forty one percent from three on seven attempts per game.
He was literally the best defender on the number one
defense in the NBA in that span. That's right, Anthony Davis.
In that entire span from January twenty eighth to March sixth,
(21:38):
when the Lakers were the number one defense in the league.
Anthony Davis literally played just nine minutes and fifty seconds
of total minute of total game time in that entire span.
Played a little bit in the first game, got hurt,
we didn't see him again in a Laker jersey, and
then Luca returned at the end of that stretch. Towards
the end of that stretch, but he was a fat,
out of shape version of himself, wasn't nearly as good
(22:00):
on offense as Lebron at that specific point in time,
and Lebron was literally carrying the defense still. And during
that stretch, the Lakers went thirteen and three with Lebron
basically leading the way as the superstar. They beat the
Knicks twice, they beat the Clippers three times, they beat
the Warriors. When Luca returned, they beat the Nuggets in Denver,
they beat the Timberwolves. I literally cannot overstate how well
(22:24):
Lebron played in that stretch. As a fan, it was
like going back in time and watching twenty eighteen. Lebron
again twenty nine to eight nine on sixty five percent
truugh shooting while anchoring the best defense in the league
and just beating great team after great team. It was
amazing to watch. And again, that was a level that
(22:45):
many of the guys in this top fourteen have quite
literally never reached in their entire basketball lives. And that
is what makes this so complicated. So let's zoom out
and let's talk about why put on at eight. Lebron
has actually sneakily been one of the most consistently reliable
(23:07):
and productive players in the NBA over the last two seasons.
I posted this stat on Twitter a few weeks back,
but it's crazy. Guess how many players in the NBA
have played in at least seventy games each of the
last two seasons, so consistently available and to over the
course of those two seasons average at least twenty five
(23:28):
to five and five on at least sixty percent trough shooting.
So again, just think of that as just consistent superstar
production at least seventy games per season and at least
superstar production of twenty five to five and five on
at least sixty percent through shooting. Three players hit that,
Mark Nikole Jokic and shay Giljes Alexander the last two
(23:49):
MVPs of the league in Lebron James Again, as I said,
it's important and it's fair for us to discuss Lebron's
health and his age as it pertains to which ceiling
he can reach. And like what you get in the
postseason matters like twenty twenty three, you get a broken
(24:09):
foot version of Lebron that you know was a lesser
version of the playoff Lebron we've seen over the years.
Twenty twenty four, they didn't lose to Denver because of Lebron.
Lebron was incredible in that series. I would argue he
played at a top tier superstar level in that series,
a just clutch shot after clutch shot after clutch shot,
and and just the Nuggets were better, and the Nuggets
are one of the great teams of this era. And
(24:30):
then last year against Minnesota kind of in between those
two levels, and that that's the fair discussion we can
have as it pertains to which ceiling Lebron can reach.
And that's why he's eighth and not fifth, right, But
in terms of actually being available to his team and
reaching superstar production, Lebron has actually been one of the
(24:52):
most reliable guys in the league over the last couple
of years. He's never even missed a playoff game in
his twenty two season career. So yeah, he's old, and
maybe maybe this is the year he finally suffers a
severe injury. Maybe this year he gets hurt and misses
a bunch of time. But if you're banking on that,
it's wishful thinking compared to reality, and especially compared to
(25:13):
the other superstars in this league, who for whatever reason,
get held to a different standard just because they're young.
They miss games, nobody cares because they're between twenty eight
and thirty two. They are inconsistent when it comes to
meeting the top tier superstar standard. Who cares? But because
it's Lebron and he's old, it's something everybody hyper focuses on.
(25:33):
So that's why I have Lebron at number eight this year.
Now we have one last bonus Lebron topic before we
get to the EuroBasket stuff, because I know Lebron haters
very well. We are almost certainly going to get a
bunch of comments under this video of people glombing onto
Lebron's on and off numbers this year, and the stat
is real, So let's start there. The Lakers were six
(25:56):
point nine points per one hundred possessions worse this year
with Lebron on the floor versus off. Now for starters,
it's it's a statistical outlier in every single season of
Lebron James's career. I literally went back on cleaning the
glass and looked at every single season, including the early
Calves years, the Miami Heat years, the second Calves years,
(26:17):
the Lakers years, every single season of Lebron's career. The
team has been substantially better with him on the floor
versus off every single one twenty one consecutive years, even recently,
old Man Lebron. Twenty twenty four Lebron was not as
good as twenty twenty five Lebron. Twenty twenty five Lebron
received more MVP consideration, was second team all the NBA,
(26:38):
was better defensively, reached a higher ceiling. He was a
better player twenty twenty four Lebron. The Lakers were eight
points better per one hundre possessions with Lebron on verse
off in twenty twenty three, ten points better twenty twenty two,
three points better, twenty twenty one, thirteen points better twenty
twenty eleven points better, twenty nineteen nine points better. Again,
you go back further in his career, it gets even crazier.
(27:01):
There's like a half dozen years where he's thirteen plus
points better. Two thousand and nine, Lebron, the first year
he won his MVP, the Cavs were eighteen points better
per one hundred possessions when Lebron was on the floor
versus off. So it is quite literally the most obvious
statistical outlier that I can remember seeing in Lebron's career.
(27:22):
So I've almost inclined to discount it entirely, but let's
dive into it any What caused this outlier piece of data.
It comes down to a couple things. First of all,
Lebron was second on the Lakers roster in minutes, so
the sample size of them having a higher net rating
was actually substantially smaller. He was on the floor for
most of the time, including all the minutes that the
(27:44):
starters were out there, and closing every single game for
a team that won fifty games and was the third
seed in the Western Conference. So if you're under the
impression that he was hurting the team, frankly, you're an idiot. Secondly,
there were a couple of lineup in regularities to Lebron
having to anchor many of Los Angeles's worst lineups, and
those lineups didn't perform very well. And if there's a
(28:06):
lesson to be learned, because like basically go it was,
JJ kind of made a strategic effort to anchor Anthony
Davis with more ball handling, right, and so Lebron often
had to anchor these bench units where he was like
the only ball handler and they'd have like a G
League center because of the week center rotation, and those
lineups got rolled. And there's no doubt that Lebron isn't
as capable of floor raising bad NBA players anymore, and
(28:29):
that maybe something that JJ Reddick has to address moving forward.
But even within that context, when I see twenty one
consecutive seasons of excellent on off numbers, including recent seasons
of old man Lebron, who wasn't even as good as
the player we saw this last year, I'm inclined, excuse me,
(28:50):
I'm inclined to basically just consider it a statistical outlier.
And again, like Lebron more or less was the same
player at this year than he was last year, and
the data looks so different. It looks like an outlier
to me. But again, this kind of floor raising piece,
this inability to carry inferior lineups the way he used to,
(29:13):
that inconsistency of the level of player that he can reach,
is all part of the reason why a guy that
can reach the ceiling lebron reached in February ranks down
at number eight for me this year. Now, let's do
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see dknng co slash audio. I watched a bunch of
(31:06):
tape of Jannis Luca and Nicole Jokic and their early
friendlies as they prepare for EuroBasket, So I wanted to
quick touch on all three of these guys here for
about ten minutes. First of all, Luka Doncic, I just
think he looks amazing physically. He's very clearly much leaner.
He also looks to have maintained much of his strength,
(31:26):
which means that they're clearly staying dedicated to the weight
room through this process. Again, like the idea is you
don't want to get skinny, you know, Like I remember
when Lebron went on his like weird fish diet in
twenty fourteen. He came into the twenty fifteen season like
considerably carrying less muscle mass, and it was something that
was a bad idea, and you could tell like Lebron
knew it, like he was like, oh shit, Like this
(31:48):
diet that I went on was not a good idea.
And I remember even talked before the season, He's like, oh,
I'm gonna be quicker this year. And he may have
been a tiny bit quicker, but that lack of strength
ended up really hurting him. And then almost immediately Lebron
went back to a different diet and loaded up in
the weight room and got his muscle mass back. Right,
I can see several examples of Luca looking like he
(32:09):
has that extra burst while still having the strength to
power through people. His Euro steps have more of like
a side to side pop to them. There were several
like examples of him changing direction at full full speed
that looked really good, like chaining together lots of moves
and being able to really pop side to side and
shed defenders, especially driving close out, so you can see
(32:31):
like a real quickness to his first step that really
didn't seem to be the case last year. So I
think overall the physical transformation is going to be huge
for him. I'm very, very excited to see the level
that Luca can reach this year. Now some specifics. His
play type efficiency in the two friendlies have been off
the charts for sylvania one point one sission of points
(32:54):
per possession, including passes on fifty eight, pick and rolls, ISOs,
and post ups. He's been excellent in all three categories.
His jumper's been a bit off four for eight off
the catch, which is fine. Obviously, He's just six for
twenty one off of off the dribble jump shots so far.
That's always a rhythm thing. I actually expect Luca to
have a good perimeter jump shooting season, driven by his
improved conditioning. Step back threes are all about getting separation
(33:17):
in the lyft, and that can often become a problem
when you tire out, and I think Luca is going
to be in good shape this year. He's five for
seven on floaters. That's a really good sign. If you
guys remember his short range touch was a major issue
last year, so that was something I thought was a
really good sign. I think in general that's super important.
And this is the one weird thing. He's not taking
(33:38):
mid range jumpers at all. Out of the twenty nine
jump shots he took in the two games, just one
of them was a mid range two, And I really
think that's an important part of his game. When he's
clicking on all cylinders. Again, it's like the Anthony Edwards
debate we were having surrounding shake kiods. As Alexander, there's a
delicate balance between large sample efficiency that can come from
(33:58):
heavily indexing tour ards threes and the possession to possession
consistency and the kind of like durability against rough shooting
nights that you can have if you mix in more
short range scoring. So on the one hand five or
seven on floaters in two games. Like, I think that's
a good sign that Lucas getting some of his floater
touched back. But the jump shot piece him relying almost
(34:20):
entirely on threes is not something that I love. But again,
and this is something I want to be clear about.
Even with the five for seven, even with the poor shooting,
the six for twenty one on the off the dribble
jump shots, I'm not really concerned with shot making at
this point in the summer. It's just such a small
sample size, especially when we're just looking at a couple
of friendlies. I'm mainly concerned by just how these guys
(34:42):
look physically, and I'm just thrilled with how Luca looks physically,
and I'm super excited to watch him this year. Nikoley Okic.
So I was having dinner with oamar Is on about
a week ago and he was like telling me, he's
like he's like, dude, Jokic looks like he's put on
some weight. And I was like, wow, really okay. So,
like I go home and I dig into the film
(35:03):
and he's still moving really well, like moving just fine.
And what's really fascinating to me about that is, Like
I think like Jokic generally is kind of dowe, right,
and so there's no way to tell how much of
that is, Like maybe he's worked out a little bit
(35:23):
this summer and put on some muscle, or maybe he's
put on a little bit of fat, or maybe some
combination of the two. But this is what Adam and
I got into that night. Like Adam was arguing to
me that it actually might be good for him to
be bigger under the circumstances that they're playing in this
particular year. And I think I agree with him. Jokic
(35:46):
being bigger is the right approach when you factor in
one this Nuggets team is much deeper than last year,
so they should be able to keep his minutes down. Again,
what I'm always scared of when a guy's carrying extra
weight is the wear and tear on the lower body.
And so even if like even for a player puts
on muscle, like if you're just weighing fifteen pounds more,
(36:09):
your every cut, every change of direction, every jump, every landing,
all of that just wears your lower body down more. Right, So,
like the ability to keep his minutes in check by
having a legitimate backup center. By having just a much
deeper rotation with which you can carry yourself through the
regular season, that should allow them to carry a bigger
(36:31):
Yokic throughout the season. The second piece of it is
acknowledge reality, and that is that Oklahoma City defended Jokic
into the worst three game stretch of playoff basketball that
we've ever seen from him, and they did it by
having Isaiah Hartenstein overplay his right shoulder with chet holmgrin
behind and then just swarming him with their perimeter guys.
I think Jokic carrying some more strength and weight to
(36:54):
handle that swarming attack would actually be really helpful. His
jumpers off, He's just one for eight so far, and
the one he made was kind of like a grifty
like pump, fake lean in and one that he got.
But as I was saying with Luca, I'm not really
concerned with small sample shooting numbers like that. Excuse me.
I'm more concerned with just how guys look physically in
(37:15):
these tournaments, and I think Jokic like he's mauling everybody
in these friendli It's like he's on seventeen post ups
so far in these games. He's generated one point four
to seven points per possession, including passes. It's just completely ridiculous.
And he's literally just tossing people around like rag dolls. Yeah, honest,
(37:35):
Just very briefly on him. He's only played one game.
He's only at the time of this recording, he's just
played in one friendly against Latvia. But he looks fantastic.
He had twenty five points on twelve shots, bullying everybody
on Latvia through the rim, several possessions where like dudes
were kind of draped on him and he just powered
through him with that shoulder and just goes right to
the front of the rim. You know, just classic y honest.
And then the jumper looked great. At the risk of
(37:57):
being hypocritical after I just said that, I'm not too
concerned about jump shooting here. It's more just that, specifically
with Yiannis, I'm excited about jump shooting right because he's
just kind of become a pretty reliable mid range guy.
We talked about that last year often, and once again,
his first game playing you know, real five on five,
serious basketball in a long time, hits a turnaround jumper
(38:19):
over his right shoulder. HiT's like a one leg fade
away off the right block. He gets three more pull
up mid rangers out of hesitation dribbles, just like that
little touch that he's demonstrating. Again, that's a real small
sample and I'm not overreacting to it. But just over
the last year, Giannis has shown a proficiency in the
mid range as a jump shooter that I think bodes
(38:40):
really well for him as he develops into an older
half court score. But overall, I'm just super excited for
your basket this year. We're gonna have some kind of
coverage of it when we get to that point. I
can't promise that we're certainly not gonna cover every game,
but we got three of the top four players in
the world playing in this tournament. We should get some
really high level basketball, and we will definitely cover it
to search to a certain extent this year. All right, guys,
(39:01):
That's all I have for today is always sincerely appreciate
you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We
will be back on Wednesday with number seven. I will
see you guys then.
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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