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August 5, 2025 41 mins

Colin unveils his predictions for the 2025 NFL season and explains why the league is becoming more predictable with fewer “new” playoff teams year after year. 

He makes the argument the Lakers should look to put the ball in Luka Doncic’s hands over LeBron James for the first time in his storied career

Bo Nix was quietly rather good last season.

 

Guest: Seth Wickersham

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Herd podcast. Be sure to
catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports Radio in
noon to three Eastern nine am to noon Pacific. Find
your local station for The Herd at Fox Sports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every day on the
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(00:22):
listening to Fox Sports Radio. Here we go. It is
a Tuesday, Ready to roll. Joel klatt Nick right, It's
The Herd. Wherever you may be, however you may be listening.
Thanks for making us, Jmack and I part of your day.
You know, Jamick, I was thinking about something this morning,

(00:42):
an overarching theme to start the show for the first
ten to twelve minutes. And I eat basically the same breakfast.
I have the same roudine every day. I get up,
I have a strong coffee. I'll get in the treadmill,
ma'am an English muffin, have a smoothie before the show.
And I live as much as everybody's searching for new stuff.

(01:05):
If I, for instance, want to watch sports on TV,
I go to NBC, Fox, CBS. I know where to go.
I don't go to Netflix, I don't go to Hulu.
I go to the standard places where I've always watched sports,
And I have this theory about the NFL that we
think you never know who's going to win these games.

(01:26):
But I believe for two reasons, the NFL is going
to get Starting three years ago, you're seeing a trend
much more predictable. And that's my jumping off point today
is this. So when I make NFL predictions, now I
have two more tweaks to my predictions. I'm always looking
for new teams to make the playoffs, and the one
team I've looked at is Joe Burrow's going to make

(01:48):
the playoffs. Right. So I want to go to a
quote from the Washington Post about a general manager talking
about the Bengals, and he talked about Mike Brown and
he says, it's the.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
Same old Mike Brown.

Speaker 1 (01:59):
BS said one general manager condition of anonymity to avoid
violating the NFL tampering rules. It's the same crap that's
been going on since boomeras Siasin and Carson Palmer. History
always repeats itself. And I've said this before. If Carson
Palmer would have gotten like a Sean Payton or an
Andy Reid, we would consider Carson Palmer a top four

(02:20):
or five quarterback ever, and I worry that Joe Burrow,
same organization, same ownership, It's going to be the same thing.
If Joe Burrow gets and Andy Reid, he's hoisting the trophies,
not Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
And I really firmly believe that.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
So I've thought about the Bengals a lot because I'm
always looking for new playoff teams, right because there's like
seventy year right, well not actually last three years.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
It keeps coming down. Why is that happening?

Speaker 1 (02:45):
So we have many camps, OTAs and the first week
or so of training camp, so I have new information.
So I looked over my predictions. I've got one more tweak.
This will not be the official tweak, but I looked
over my predictions that I made a few months ago.
So in the AFC, for instance, Josh Allen's gonna win
the division for as long as he's in his prime.
The Patriots are the safest double your win total bet

(03:08):
in the league in five years, Dolphins Jets, I wouldn't
change a thing. AFC North prediction. Ravens are the class
of of this division, and I mean really one of
the top three organizations in the league. I think because
of all the noise around the Bengals, all because of ownership,
I'd probably move the Bengals out. Steelers, Brown's just not

(03:28):
good enough. AFC South is weak. Texans are gonna win
the division. They have arguably the best coach and absolutely
the best quarterback in the AFC West Chargers, Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
Broncos, Raiders.

Speaker 1 (03:41):
If I moved Cincinnati out because I've predicted they'll make
the playoffs, I would put.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
The Broncos in.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
I mean, they added green Law to the Funga Evan Ingram.
They're over under on draft Kings as nine and a
half wins. So if I was to make an AFC
West prediction my final big tweak, I'd get the Bengals
out and I'd move Sean Payton in. I'd get noise out,
and I'd get a guy I've relied on for twenty
five years in the league, Sean Payton in.

Speaker 2 (04:09):
If I go to the.

Speaker 1 (04:10):
NFC, it's the same basic theme.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
I like most of my picks.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
NFC East Eagles, Commanders, Commanders Class of the NFC East,
not Close Eagles, Commanders, Class of the Division, Giants, Cowboys,
and mess in the NFC North, here's where I would
make my change for the same reason.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
I'd get the Bengals out.

Speaker 1 (04:29):
I probably because I think the Bear has been very
noisy so far in Mini camp, OGA and training camp.
I'd probably move the Bears out and the Packers in again,
noise out like the Bengals, reliable Sean Payton, Green Bay
Packers in Vikings. JJ McCarthy feel like a fourth place
team or a third place team in the NFC South,
weakest division in my opinion in football Bucks class of

(04:51):
the division, best GM, best quarterback, and you know I'll
take the Bucks. NFC West again, I'm not as high
as the Niners as jmac. I go ram Seahawks. The
Niners have an easy schedule. I think they're old. I
think the roster has holes. I think they wanted to
keep Green Lawn Ufunga. I do think Robert Sala coming

(05:12):
in helps. So Again, like the AFC where I moved
the Bengals out, Sean Payton, I'd probably move in. I
would probably move the noisy Bears out and the Packers in.

Speaker 2 (05:22):
But it's very.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
Interesting because I have spent as my staff knows, I
spend considerable amount of time trying to find new playoff teams,
and if I had made these two changes, I do
only have two new playoff teams New England and.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
The AFC and Seattle in the NFC. Wait a minute, I.

Speaker 1 (05:40):
Can't do that, or can I. So there's more games
than ever. Right, they added a game, and they're going
to add an eighteenth game, and the league become more
quarterback centric. So those two things, in my opinionion are

(06:01):
making the NFL a bit more like the NBA.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
I talked about this last year.

Speaker 1 (06:05):
The bottom of the league is really bad and feels
miles away from the top of the league. You're seeing
more spreads that are like nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen.
It feels like to me, last couple of years that
was always a college number. An NFL mismatch was like
eight eight and a half. Now you're getting double digit

(06:27):
spreads a lot, it feels like to me. So last
year there were only four new playoff teams. That's tied
for the fewest in twenty years. We're on a three
year trend of fewer new playoff teams. And I believe
as much as everybody myself included, wants change, the NFL

(06:50):
is going to become the NBA. You kind of know.
I mean, go look at the AFC. I was looking
at this this morning. If you go look at the AFC,
who's made the Divisional Round the last two years, Oh Ravens, Bills,
Kansas City, And I feel like it's the same teams
every year. So my take is everybody says they want change.

(07:15):
I think going forward, when we go to an eighteenth game,
and I've said this is the danger of extending the
NFL season two more games from several years ago and
making the league incredibly quarterback centric. You're gonna have a
clear top and a really ugly bottom, and it's going

(07:38):
to become very predictable. So I don't think we're gonna
have six and seven new playoff teams this year. I
am struggling outside of maybe Joe Burrow and the Niners,
I'm struggling to find new playoff teams now. Last year
because of bo Nicks, who was exceptional as a rookie,
and Jaden Daniels the Broncos and Arshington, whoa surprised us.

Speaker 2 (08:02):
But that was a really good quarterback draft class. This wasn't.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
And from that, I'll talk about another part of football
that we thought we were going to see major changes
in and I think the opposite is true. So when
the college football Playoff was created, here's what you heard. Oh,
finally the little guy can compete. I mean, when you
only have four teams at it was going to be
the big dogs. So there was this supposition, this belief

(08:32):
that you would have a lot of little guys that
would have a chance to knock off the big dog. Actually,
now with teams playing up to sixteen fifteen college games,
same thing is true in the NFL. The deeper rosters
have a much greater advantage. I mean, Ohio stated in

(08:53):
the playoff was rolling through teams that just had more
good players. They had more NFL bodies. And this morning
I looked at up the coach's top twenty five pole.
The first seven teams Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia,
Notre Dame, Clemson, Oregon all made the playoff last year
an eight to nine or baman LSU football powerhouses where

(09:14):
all the new teams it's the same old, same old.
In fact, I'll make the argument in the last thirty
years of college football, there is only one new top
ten powerhouse. One Oregon, and it took Phil Knight's money
and vision one new program. And by expanding the playoff

(09:38):
to twelve teams fourteen sixteen, that doesn't help the little
guy because a team like Arizona State cam Skataboo, great story,
but they emptied the tank against Texas. Texas right now
has two five star freshman wide receivers. They're like fifth
and six on the depth chart. They'd start for SMU,
they'd start for Arizona State when you get the occasional upset.

(10:01):
But when you watched Indiana and Notre Dame plan the playoff,
did you think the little guy at a fighting chance?
The thing was over two series in. You watch the
SMU game. So the old system, which Boise State could
have one big Bowl game against Oklahoma. Chris Peterson uses
a trick play and they knock off the Sooners and

(10:22):
the season ends in Boise, Idaho on a great note,
unbelievable TV game. Everybody in Idaho feels good. Those days
are over. You're going to all those teams that have
not You're going to end their season with losses and
often ugly losses.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
So this idea that.

Speaker 1 (10:40):
The NFL, you extend, extend, this season, you expand the
playoffs in college football, you expand it now, Folks, everybody
is trying to engineer parody and.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
It doesn't exist.

Speaker 1 (10:58):
People always separate, businesses always separate, and so that's kind
of my theme is college football now can have up
to fifteen games. In the NFL is expanding to seventeen,
and now they're going to expand to eighteen games. Many
believe next year. It's not gonna help the little guy.
It's gonna help the deeper roster, the richer organizations, the

(11:22):
better quarterbacks, and a handful of great owners. All right,
Jay Meck, I know that could be a downer, but
my guess is you basically watched football on the same
three channels you did twenty years ago, and you also
eat the same thing for breakfast most days. Yeah that
we're all creatures of habit and everybody's seeking new stuff.
But you know, in New York, if you could get
a ticket to a concert for a lot of people,

(11:44):
to be a Billy Joel concert, which was in the
case twenty years ago for New Yorkers.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
It's funny you bring that up. I mean, you know,
like I'm we're very similar in terms of creatures of habit.
Like you know, last week on vacation, I didn't wake
up and go on Twitter and see what the news was.
But now you're back and like, that's kind of one
of the first things you do, right, You got to
see what's up on sports and what's happening.

Speaker 1 (12:05):
Yeah, I just I think I understand people seeking new.
Uh it could be a mayoral race in New York.
Everybody wants new and new and new, but in the end,
people basically go back. What makes people happy psychologically are
certainties and habits. That's what makes you happy, not waking

(12:27):
up every day with no idea what's going on. People
like want to work out, they want to they want
to walk their dog, they want to have their coffee,
they want to play wordle, they want to read the
local paper. We are creatures of habit and we're all seeking.
We think football collegen pro, adding more playoff teams, expanding
the playoffs and adding more games. That all benefits the

(12:47):
big Dog. That all benefits the big that benefits Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia,
the New Texas that's who it benefit. Doesn't benefit SMU,
it benefits the Longhorns.

Speaker 3 (12:59):
I do wonder if you know, we've briefly discussed the
Packers yesterday as a team that's going to probably rise up.
I'm surprised you're not on the Falcons. I got some
really interesting data when we eventually talk about Atlanta, and
I think, remember when you were on Tennessee earlier this
summer and you suddenly backed off off the Titans. What happened?

Speaker 1 (13:17):
Well, I didn't love them. I had him as a
wild card team. But when they their supposed number one
receiver gets hurt, they get rid of him. Now they've
got a roster full the number three and four receivers.
Cam Ward is acknowledged. You know, they're saying in camp
they're struggling. It's become more and more of a wide
receiver quarterback league. They're struggling. I mean, it always feels

(13:38):
like they're light offensively. So I didn't love them. New
England's my guaranteed double your win total team. But I
did think cam Ward would add some electricity.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
But you know it's c J. Stroud is the best
quarterback in the division.

Speaker 1 (13:52):
C J. Stroud made the playoffs. My guess is c J.
Stroud will make the playoffs again this year.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
So just for the record, your c J. Stroud is
a better quarterback right now than Trevor Lawrence. Correct, Yes, okay,
I would disagree.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
But well, I did not believe that two years ago.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
I believe it now. I think, to me, I don't buy.

Speaker 1 (14:11):
He had an off season, tuns al to left tackle,
didn't play well. They were missing two of their top receivers.
He had a lot to overcome. I think CJ. Stroud's
really really good.

Speaker 4 (14:20):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
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Speaker 3 (14:30):
Hey, this is Jason McIntyre. Join me every weekday morning
on my podcast, Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. This isn't
your typical sports pod pushing the same tired narratives down
your throat every day. Straight Fire gives you honest opinions
on all the biggest sports headlines, accurate stats to help
you win big at the sportsbook, and all the best guests.

(14:50):
Do yourself a favor and listen to Straight Fire with
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you get your podcasts.

Speaker 1 (15:04):
Nick right top of next hour Joe Klatt two. This
is a story that's had tentacles. So look, Lebron James
did not show up for the press conference when Lucas
signed his new deal. Bronny James wasn't apparently there either.
And my take is, we all know the deal here.
Lebron is a global superstar. He's like in the Ronaldo

(15:25):
Messi level. They play by different rules. If Lebron and
Savannah and Browny were on a yacht in Santrope, I
don't have a problem with it.

Speaker 2 (15:33):
I really don't.

Speaker 1 (15:34):
We all know that the Lakers drafted him and there
was behind the scenes workings on that deal. It's the
off season. It just doesn't bother me. And reportedly Lebron
called him. That doesn't bother me. What bothers me going
forward into this season is that it was okay last
year when Lebron often dominated the ball with lumpy Luca.

(15:56):
But Luca and I'm looking at men's health like everybody else,
and the video clips, Luca is in the best shape
of his career since like his rookie year and his
second third year in the NBA, and his usage rate
I discovered this.

Speaker 2 (16:12):
Morning is the highest in league history.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
So I didn't have a problem Lebron sharing the ball
a lot with lumpy Luca. That's not what Luca's gonna
be this new relation. I would make an argument this
Luca in shape Luca fits better with KD old KD
than old Lebron because Lebron's always had to you have

(16:36):
to reshape your basketball ecosystem with Lebron. He always has
the ball in his hands. He doesn't play as well
off ball. He's also a great passer, but so is Luca.
So the problem with the Lakers now, Austin reeves, Lebron
and Luca are all much better with the ball, but
in shape, non lumpy Luca should have the ball eighty

(16:58):
percent of the time. Last year, I was fine with sharing.
He's been injured in camp, the trades, mid season, he
worked his way into shape. He just looked big and
puffy and lumpy, and a lot of times Lebron was
the twitch year athlete. He will not be this year.
Lebron's average keeps going down. My sense is it will

(17:19):
go down more this year because he just won't have
the ball in his hands much. So. The whole thing
about Lebron, you know, not showing up for a presser
or even brawny. It doesn't really bother me. I think
I think we all know the game. They're certain athletes.
I mean, it was great that Brady was as obsessed
as he was. But Aaron Rodgers has a lot of defenders.

(17:41):
When he goes to Egypt in the offseason, he's got
a lot of defenders. Teammates like it's Aaron, he's been around.
I wouldn't do it, but he's not the first guy
to do it. But my take is this year is
going to be different. I said this yesterday. I think
you're going to see a huge gap in Luke and
Lebron on the floor. One will look like a top
three player in the league and one will look like

(18:03):
he's forty good but not nearly as consistent. And what's
going to happen statistically is Lebron should not have the
ball in his hands like last year. Absolutely not Lumpy Luca,
No problem with it. The Luca I'm seeing on these
videos at the presser Men's health. That's like year two,
three and four Luca when he led the NBA and

(18:24):
usage rate and was virtually unstoppable as a kid.

Speaker 2 (18:28):
Unstoppable.

Speaker 1 (18:31):
Hey, by the way, here's Rob Polanka, the GM you
know last week on the new contract form.

Speaker 5 (18:37):
Make no mistakes, we're in win championship now mode. Always.
We've been very intentional with keeping our optionality to make
now moves if there's good now moves to may or
to have sort of our flexibility in the future. But
I say all that that the optionality is there for

(18:58):
us to use now if the right move comes its way.
We want to make smart moves, but to be in
a position of flexibility versus being stuck is really promising
for how we're going to build this team moving forward.

Speaker 1 (19:10):
Just look at how Finn in a suit Luca looks
compared to last year in a uniform. So he's got
a heavy suit on, he looks thirty pounds lighter. And
just remember that Luca, like early Luca totally Baal dominant
and completely unstubble. Last year he couldn't be guys off
the dribble. He couldn't be an attack mode. So I

(19:32):
was okay with Lebron Lebron beating guys off the dribble,
but you go to young Luca, rookie Luca. I think
we talked about this once, had twenty five dunks. Lebron
last year, Luca last year had one dunk. Like we're
going back to twenty dunk Luca.

Speaker 2 (19:51):
Lean Luca.

Speaker 1 (19:53):
He's got to have the ball in his hands eighty
percent of the time. Austin Reeves can't have the ball
in his hands, and Lebron shouldn't have the ball in
his hands. Lean Luca is not lumpy Luca. J mckle
the news.

Speaker 4 (20:09):
This is the herd line news.

Speaker 3 (20:12):
All right, let's go to the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings. Colin.
Big news out of the Vikings camp is that JJ
McCarthy he is going to start Minnesota's first preseason game.
You know, no point in waiting. Let's just throw it
right into the fire. Here's Kevin O'Connell talking about JJ
starting a preseason game.

Speaker 6 (20:32):
You'd love to play him, you know, as much as possible.
But I think with those two days a joint practice,
the guys the you know, the type of repetition that
they got, the other guys on the offense will get
from a physicality and workload standpoint, we'll more than likely
use those two days as are our real days. Obviously
subject to change based upon how those practices go, how

(20:53):
we feel coming out of those If we need to
get a little bit more work, we will, and then
we'll assess that final preseason game when it comes.

Speaker 1 (21:00):
Okay, am I a little over the top saying I
really want to watch this game. I want to see
JJ McCarthy play this. This is a classic. Okay, remember
a couple of years ago, we used to joke that
you had more footage of Bigfoot than Jordan Love backing
up Aaron Rodgers like you, they hid the video. You know,

(21:22):
they only let you look at so much in camp
to begin with. But we've gotten real glimpses of Shador
Sanders and real glimpses of Caleb Williams. I can't wait
to watch JJ McCarthy play. Well.

Speaker 3 (21:32):
More interesting, is he gonna have his starting offensive line?
Is justin Jefferson gonna be on the Apple?

Speaker 1 (21:36):
Like? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (21:37):
Are they gonna play everyone or I mean, I can't
imagine they put McCarthy back there behind like backups and
guys trying to make the roster. So now you're talking
about playing a lot of starters, because I know you
were overreacting a little bit to the Lions. They I
don't know if they played any starters, Colin, And now
you're talking about JJ McCarthy starting QB starting from Minnesota,

(21:58):
so kind of crazy. I will say that. Do you
want to guess what their win total was last season? Okay,
last season Minnesota was Sandarnold huh eight and a half?
It was seven? They won fourteen games. That's absurd. The
more you look into the schedule, they were nine and

(22:18):
one in one score games, Colin, you know what that
usually mean Member Kansas City eleven or no Minnesota nine
and one in one score games. If you really dig
in deep, it seems like maybe I overreacted this summer
on the Vikings and they profiled more like a nine
ish win team, yes, as opposed to eleven.

Speaker 1 (22:36):
Well, and also something about green Bay and I talked
about this to start the show. How many games did
green Bay win last year? And they started and they
had a backup quarterback Jordan Loved wasn't great at the
end of the year, and the division was pretty interesting.
Lions were great, Vikings were outstanding, and green Bay still
won double digit games. So my take is if Jordan

(22:57):
Love is just healthy with their draft. In additions, green
Bay is about as predictable as your morning coffee.

Speaker 2 (23:06):
You kind of know what you get with Green Bay.

Speaker 3 (23:07):
I don't know if we can get the Vikings schedule
on the screen, but I was looking at it here
during the commercial break Colin. It's really rough. A lot
of early standalone games for the rookie quarterback. The lights
are bright, and then they have back to back international
games in Dublin and London. I'm starting to pull back

(23:28):
a little bit on my Vikings love, and I think
the Packers are zooming past them in the.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
That game at Sam Darnold hosting JJ McCarthy Week thirteen
at Seattle's.

Speaker 2 (23:39):
That is a great That is a great. Yeah, yeah,
that schedule.

Speaker 3 (23:44):
Look at that Eagles after the Bye, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Packers.
Those are all teams projected to be playoff teams.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
I'll make the argument that the schedule gets really rough
about week seven. It gets I mean it's Jalen Hurts
into Herbert, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Green Bay at Seattle
Jaden Daniels. But I would say in the first few weeks,
we don't know if Atlanta or Chicago are any good.
We don't know if Pittsburgh's any good. If you're gonna

(24:13):
make Hay and you're the Vikings. You can make it
in the first five weeks better. There's some do w's
there because I do believe they have an argument to
be made. It is the best coaching staff in the
sport right now if you look at coordinators and head coach.

Speaker 3 (24:27):
I mean, I love Kevin O'Connell. Can he win a
playoff team like.

Speaker 2 (24:31):
I just won?

Speaker 7 (24:34):
It's hard.

Speaker 3 (24:34):
I like him. I like him a lot. I'm bullish,
but you're right, Floreses is a monster Vikings. It's gonna
be a great season. Interesting for sure. Next up, let's
go to the Steelers and new wide receiver DK Metcalf.
He's saying all the right things since joining Pittsburgh. Most
of the attention has been on his connection with Aaron
Rodgers GB one there. Metcalf has really been impressed with

(24:57):
the other side of the ball as well.

Speaker 7 (25:01):
And you don't want my opinion because I think they're
the best defense I don't ever seen man.

Speaker 2 (25:05):
Really.

Speaker 7 (25:05):
Yeah, Like bought some dogs everywhere on the field, and
I tip my head to him because they come to
work every day and you know, we don't have any
toys but to get better, all right, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (25:16):
We'll see.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
Let's settle down there. I mean the Prime Niners when
you were in Seattle, bro stop.

Speaker 1 (25:23):
It's really interesting if you look, go look at the
athletics piece about the four things at camp that had
been a bit of a struggle.

Speaker 2 (25:31):
And I said this yesterday, it's the Jet. You could
have written the article about the Jets.

Speaker 1 (25:35):
I think the Steelers are a more organized, better run
version of the Jets. They don't have a number two receiver,
Aaron won't trust the offensive line, they won't consistently be
able to run. And the on line in New York
and Pittsburgh, despite draft capital and money spent on it
isn't very good. And Aaron at this point does not
want to get hit. He has no interest getting hit.

(25:57):
I think they're gonna look and it'll feel and New
York and Pittsburgh both have really good players. They don't
have a ton of depth offensively, but they you know
Nausea Harris last year, Brees Hall. You have a Garrett Wilson,
you have a dk Metcalf. They just don't have depth
at running back or wide receiver. Mark my words, Aaron's

(26:17):
gonna look a lot like like Week ten on Jets.
Last year, a lot of short stuff and and doesn't
have a second receiver he can trust.

Speaker 3 (26:26):
That's not bad, I will say, for as bleak as
it looks in Pittsburgh, and I would agree with you.
I would definitely take Mike Tomlin on the Jets.

Speaker 2 (26:35):
Jets ten cases, yes, beat yeah, No.

Speaker 1 (26:40):
Much more well run, buttoned up organization than the Jets,
but players win and lose games, and it's they're They're
a glossy, well constructed version of the New York Jets
with Aaron he's just one year older.

Speaker 3 (26:53):
The final story, Colin is, let's go to the Jets
and uh new head coach Aaron Glenn. He's trying to
revamp the cure in New York. The Jets led the
league with one hundred and thirty seven penalties one thousand
and thirty four penalty yards, and they had five games
with at least ten penalties last season. Column five. I mean,
that's just undisciplined. I think some of that had to

(27:15):
do with Robert Sollagan shoved out. Glenn hopes to make
that change by having as many officials, yes officials Zebra's
reps A ten practice as possible. Colin, this was this
was all bad.

Speaker 2 (27:29):
For the Jets.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
But what do you think about the officials at practices.
I don't know how common that is.

Speaker 1 (27:35):
I don't think that's new. I think I think teams
have done that before. I think college teams have done that.
Where you invite officials in for practices. Yeah, I don't
think that's I don't know if it's customary, but I
NFL officials are have been at camp forever. Yeah, this
is again. Yeah it's a story because it's a New
York team, But I don't think that's a I don't

(27:55):
think that's a big deal.

Speaker 3 (27:56):
This further illustrates the lack of discipline this team last year.
I mean, so many dumb penalties.

Speaker 1 (28:02):
At in opportunity doesn't have any the ownership doesn't have
any discipline, Why would the players?

Speaker 3 (28:06):
Yeah, top down, it's an embarrassment.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
Uh. J Mack with the news, Well that's the news,
and thanks for stopping that.

Speaker 4 (28:14):
The herd line news.

Speaker 2 (28:16):
So there was a it was funny.

Speaker 1 (28:19):
We were I was doing some homework on bow Knicks
this morning and Sean Payton came out and said, we're
looking at a superstar, which can sound crazy on its face,
but what is really interesting about bow Nicks. So Denver's
in I mean, Denver gets overshadowed by Mahomes and Andy
Reid and then last year Jim Harbor Herbert and they're
in the Rocky Mountain, that weird time zone, whereas Washington's

(28:42):
in a big media center and Jaden Daniels with the Commanders.
So the thought is, but Jaden Daniels was unbelievable and
bow Nicks was clearly second. But what's fascinating if you
really look at what happened bow Nicks in a better
division against arguably the two best defensive coordinator Nators in football,
Steve Spagnola twice Kansas City and Jesse Minter, who took

(29:04):
the Chargers from thirty second to first in defense. Bo
Nicks had more completions, more touchdown passes, more total touchdowns,
more passing yards. And we were talking about this this
morning as a staff. If you had a week four
on for bon Nicks, it's like a top six quarterback
in the league. That was twenty nine touchdowns, eight picks,
got one hundred and one passer rating. So we were

(29:26):
talking about Bonnix as a staff and Seth Wickersham, great writer,
came out with a piece on Sean Payton and bow Knicks,
and I want to bring him out on the show next.
Trustinwill dot Com makes it easy. You don't want a
state controlling your assets or documents when you pass away.
Go to trust and Will dot com today for total

(29:49):
peace of mind.

Speaker 4 (29:54):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
and noon Eastern a em Pacificaturday.

Speaker 3 (30:00):
It's Baseball Knight in America as rising star Pete crow
Armstrong leads the Cubs against the Cardinals, or Bryce Harper
and the Phillies battle the Rangers. Check local listings for
the game in your area Saturday, seven Eastern on Fox.

Speaker 1 (30:15):
Seth Wickersham has been a senior writer and a great
one at ESPN for more than two decades. A New
York Times bestseller, he writes books. We put him on
the air. He has a new book coming out September ninth.
I can't wait, American Kings, a biography of the quarterback
arch Manning, Peyton Manning, Johnny Unitas, Warren Moon, John l

(30:36):
what not, J Yeah, Johnny Unitas. He talks about that
he's got stuff on arch Manning, Caleb Williams, and I
want to bring him on because we were talking as
a staff this morning about bow Knicks Seth Wickersham joining us,
and you got some access to bone Nicks. And I've
made the argument before that Jade Daniels is remarkable, but
in the division with the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, he got

(30:57):
a lot of big market press, and quietly in a
better division and a better conference from about week four
on was fairly stupendous. You got access to Sean Payton
for this book. I don't know if you got it
pre drafting Bonex. We can talk about that. What is
your takeaway on why Peyton is so fond of him?

(31:21):
He just called him this week a superstar in the making.
Did you see that a year two years ago when
you started this project.

Speaker 8 (31:29):
Well, so, thank you first of all. And I think that,
like anytime you're going to write about quarterbacks, you have
to write about that age old question. You know, how
do you know a pro quarterback when you see one?
Is it possible to know? We always talk about how
difficulty the difficulty in predicting college performance to NFL performance.
And I sat down with Sean Payton and this was

(31:50):
in March of twenty twenty four. Everybody knew that the
Broncos were in the market for a quarterback. And he
looks me in the eye and he says, do you
promise with every you know, shred of your integrity that
you won't share this with anyone? And I said sure,
And it was you know, obviously, don't share it before
the draft. And he said he opened a folder and

(32:11):
there was all this data on the folder and bo
Nix was at the top of the list, and I
was like, what is this? And Sean Payton had developed
his own analytics formula to try to judge processing speed
of college quarterbacks and he started it back when he
scouted Patrick Mahomes in twenty seventeen. And when he ran
the twenty twenty four quarterbacks through the formula, bo Nix

(32:34):
was by far the most efficient and it wasn't even close.
And Caleb Williams, by the way, was one of the
last ones of the first round of the guys who
ended up going in the first round.

Speaker 1 (32:45):
Wow, Well that you know that that is interesting because
your book, you know what book's going to be successful
when it makes news. Well before it comes out, you
already made news and confirmed stuff that I had said
about a year ago I think we about Caleb will James,
his dad, his nervousness about Chicago and after many camps
and OTAs. There is video seth of Caleb struggling his

(33:09):
reputation in college, accuracy issues.

Speaker 2 (33:12):
And a bit moody in the NFL. We've seen both.

Speaker 1 (33:17):
Is are you surprised when you talked about Caleb with
multiple sources? Do you think these are not just brief
hiccups and maybe this is what Caleb's going to be
as a pro quarterback.

Speaker 8 (33:30):
I mean, I think that a rookie year is about
survival first and foremost, and I think Caleb not only survived,
he showed a lot of flashes of a pretty rare
skill set. I think that you know, what Carl and
Caleb wanted was some agency over his future employers, saying
thing that Jack Elway and Archie Manning wanted for their sons.
And even though they didn't get it when they wanted it,

(33:52):
I think they got it now, which is, you know
what they wanted was it was an innovative offensive mind
who is really invested in Caleb Williams. And I think
that trying to draw too much from training camp, you know,
I think that like that's often a mistake that we make.
I think that Caleb Williams is a pretty special quarterback.
That doesn't mean he's perfect. I think that Bill Belichick
had a point when he said that there were open

(34:15):
receivers on the field, especially over the middle, that Caleb
either failed to see or failed to pull the trigger on.
But you know it was only his rookie year. I
think that he flashed some pretty special quarterbacking potential, and
I think that now he has a chance to kind
of realize his potential with the new head coach.

Speaker 1 (34:34):
So Arch Manning's a fascinating story. I said the other
day in a world of the transfer portal in Nil,
when the minute a quarterback doesn't think he's number one
on the depth chart, they bolt. And here's Arch Manning, who,
in my opinion, is more talented than quin yours. Not
a peep, never disgruntled. And I said, that is so Manning.

(34:56):
He's got just the Manning quarterback gene in the t
rams for portal, the ability at Texas, and maybe you're
the better player to sit as a backup. That's all
I needed to know about his maturity now. A lot
of I think the media has been pretty responsible with
Arch that we're all saying, can we at least see

(35:17):
him play Ohio State when you did when you when
you did your book on Arch, what should we expect?
What did you learn about him?

Speaker 4 (35:28):
Well?

Speaker 8 (35:28):
I think that the interesting thing with him is exactly
what you mentioned, and that's that when your hype from
such a young age, and in the book, I go
into the very first moment when he was in eighth grade,
when everyone was looking at each other going like, oh
my god, this is for real. And you know, people
think that anything other than being the first pick in
the draft and having like a very solid, if not

(35:49):
Hall of Fame NFL career is a disappointment, which is insane.
You look for little things like that to gauge you
know where this person's head is that and you know,
I think you're right if you know Tom Brady didn't
come into college Tom Brady. Of course, we know that
he was broken and then had to rebuild himself at Michigan.

(36:12):
And the fact that Arch who picked Texas you know
for two reasons among many, one that the head coach
was the offensive play caller, so he wasn't going to
go anywhere. And there'll be continuity, and two that in
Austin he might be it might be a big enough
talent for him to kind of blend in and he
wouldn't be as big as he was in like Oxford, Mississippi.

(36:34):
Those two things have held relatively true for him. And
the fact that he was willing to stay and sit
and learn and be patient I think as a good
sign for him long term. I think that, like if
he had tried to get out, it would have been
very understandable. But I think that the way that he's
handled it, I think it is a very very positive sign. Now,

(36:57):
I mean, look, he's got to go out and play.
We'll see how that goes. But I think that, like
the way that he's handled his career so far, I
think is pretty impressive.

Speaker 1 (37:06):
So you you you've got Arch and Caleb and Bo Nicks,
and you've got the old guys l way At, Johnny
unit Is, Peyton Manning, Warren Moon, who I always thought
was historically underrated. And you know, there's been this kind
of narrative that the NFL is flipping a coin on quarterbacks,
they don't know who's going to be great, And I
push back on that. Take out Brady most of the

(37:29):
great quarter of Elway, Marino, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson. Right now,
even guys like Big Ben that played at non traditional powers,
most of them went first round. Overwhelmingly they go first round.
But Mahomes is fascinating because he may be the most
talented ever and he didn't even have a winning record

(37:51):
in college. That when you when you did your homework
on this book, which comes out September ninth, American Kings.

Speaker 2 (37:57):
Are their stories.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
I mean, his dad was a Bay in the big
so he's got some athletic jeans. Were there stories about
Mahomes that surprise you and that I mean Andy Reid, Brett,
Veach Gruden. What did you take away from the Mahomes
journey college to pros.

Speaker 8 (38:14):
Well, one of the main things that I hit on
with Patrick Mahomes is him and his religion. I mean,
obviously he's very much into his Christian religion, and I
think that that's fascinating within the context of his gifts,
his God given gifts, and his success as a quarterback
and his notoriety as a quarterback. I think as a player.
I think one of the most interesting things is that
his career at Texas Tech, like he was under the radar.

(38:36):
He didn't even get make it to a Lead eleven finals.
I mean, e Lead eleven is like a beauty pageant
for physical skills with quarterback physical skills. He didn't even
make it to the finals. And at Texas Tech he
was a little under the radar and he got to
have the quarterback equivalent of like free play, where he
could make mistakes and keep going without worrying, whereas like

(38:56):
Tom Brady, of course, when he was at Michigan, he
was conditioned that one snap at practice might mean that
he doesn't even play that week. So it's a really
interesting case study. And I think that you know, when
when Sean Payton was first looking to replace Drew Brees
in twenty seventeen, he came up with this formula again
to try to understand processing, and it's kind of like

(39:18):
a failure index. It's really interesting and Patrick had a
great score on it, and he was gonna pick Patrick. Obviously,
the Chiefs traded up with Buffalo took him away, but
he kept the same analytics formula and when he used
it this time around, bo Nix's score was the very
best since Patrick Mahomes's. I mean even though Patrick Mahomes
threw a ton of passes and put up a ton

(39:40):
of points and was under the radar, he didn't have
a ton of turnovers. And I think that like the
formula that he developed, he had a lot of confidence
in it, and I think a lot of that had
to do with Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 1 (39:52):
So Seth Wickersham, Senior writer, ESPN been there for a
couple of decades, American Kings. Let's put it up again
for our team audience. A biography of the Quarterback book
releases September ninth. It is already made news. Listen, you're
gonna be sitting on the couch watching a lot of football.
This is what you should have next to you as

(40:13):
a constant reference point. Seth, I appreciate you. You basically
text me this morning. We got you on within an hour.
I totally appreciate your flexibility on this and thank you
so much, and good luck with the book.

Speaker 8 (40:24):
Hey Man, great talking to you.

Speaker 2 (40:25):
As always. I appreciate you so.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
Inn't that grade he got access to this formula and
the Bonnicks numbers from weeks four to eighteen. Again, you're
a rookie quarterback. You come into the league it's a
great division at kids. Sixty seven percent completion percentage, twenty
nine touchdowns, eight picks, passer rating of one oh one two.
And remember Denver spending their money on defense, like even

(40:50):
this show hafunga Green Law. They're doing it again. They're
doubling down on defense. So they don't have a number
one receiver. Courtland Sutton's great too. They don't have a
number one back, they don't have a number one tight end.
I think Garrett Bowle is a very good left tackle,
but I'd argue they have a majority of their elite
talent is on the defensive side. So and then again,

(41:11):
Jesse Minter Steve Spagnola had a big lift for a
rookie quarterback, and that kid by week four was on one.

Speaker 2 (41:22):
Was on one, all right?

Speaker 1 (41:26):
Nick writes around the corner, tom Brady's actually talking soccer,
and well, yeah, I know, he actually got interesting comments.

Speaker 2 (41:35):
We'll talk about both on a Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
Yeah, I'm sorry, Chicago, I think I have to demote
you and put the Packers in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (41:42):
I know it's things a little, but then the truth
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