July 30, 2025 • 42 mins
Danny gives his NFL Over/Unders for the season
Travis Hunter is built different
The Bo Nix / Sean Payton combo is very underrated
Guest: MIKE JONES
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Herd podcast. Be sure to
catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports Radio in
noon to three Eastern nine am to noon Pacific. Find
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Speaker 2 (00:21):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Our number two, The Herd.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
I'm Danny Parkins from FS one and soon to be
First things first in for Colin Coward.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Absolute thrill to be here. Thank you very.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
Much for tuning in and listening wherever you are. Colin
does his blazing five. He's been doing it for a while.
Who does sharps thing?
Speaker 5 (00:49):
I should just.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Ask what do I think?
Speaker 4 (00:51):
Because I went sixty five percent in the NFL against
the spread last year.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
You're like, why does he keep bringing it up?
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Because that's really hard to do and it was the
best year of my life. Although it is back to
back sixty plus percent seasons against the spread in the NFL.
So I couldn't pass up the opportunity being in this
chair for Colin to leave you with some wagering opportunities.
If you see fit how I see the NFL heading
(01:17):
in to the twenty twenty five twenty twenty six season,
Why do you a five favorite over under or ten
favorite over under when you can give your thirty two
favorite over unders for the upcoming NFL season. Let's begin
in the NFC North, where I've picked the Lions to
be in the Super Bowl back to back years. Not
sure if I'll do it again this year, but I'm
(01:38):
definitely picking.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Them for over.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
At ten and a half twenty seven wins over the
last two seasons, most in the NFL, that's more than
the Kansas City Chiefs interior offensive line questions, loss of
coordinator questions. But if their defense is just normal hurt
instead of extreme hurt, the offense is too good. That's
still an eleven or twelve win team. Yes, in that division. Yes,
(02:01):
with their schedule. The Vikings were nine and one in
one score games last year. I like JJ McCarthy, I
love Kevin O'Connell, but that's an under.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
That's an under if I've ever seen one. For them
at nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
Fourteen wins felt like a fluke last year, win seven
eight games, have your quarterback for the future, They'll be fine.
The Packers are under at nine and a half, this
division is going to be very bunched up. I think
between two, three and four. Obviously those could finish in
any order. Two and six against teams that made the
playoffs last year were the Green Bay Packers, and I
(02:39):
was surprised. I know they love Golden the first round pick.
I was surprised they invested another asset into receiver. On
the offensive side of the ball, they need more pass rush.
For me, they lived and died by the turnover last year.
With the new defensive coordinator, Bump and McKinney had an
unbelievable first year in Green Bay. If they don't have
as much turnover luck this year, I think it's more
like an eight win season for the Packers. And I
(03:01):
know the Bears are the all hype team, but everything
in the world went wrong for them last year.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
If just a few things.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Go right, the amount of upgrades that they had at coach,
play caller, offensive line, defensive line, two tight ends, set
second year of Caleb Williams in the pros, people like, oh,
Kayleb Williams was a bust.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Kayleb Williams wasn't good.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
That was the best quarterback season that the Bears had
had in a decade. Not hyperbole, thirty five hundred passing
yards was the most the Bear's quarterback had had since
twenty sixteen. He'll be better. The Bears will be better.
They're a nine or a ten win team this season.
Let's go to the NFC East. The Eagles are the
best team in football. The Eagles aren't over team. They're
(03:46):
totals at eleven and a half, which is very high,
but they've gone over their win total under Nick Siriani
three of four years, and if they have no weaknesses,
it's hard to pick them to not hit their over
You could say, well, it could be injuries.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Sure, it could be injuries for any team.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
I'm not going to go thirty two for thirty two though,
that is the goal on this exercise. But also part
of it for the Eagles is that I think the
next two teams that everyone thinks are going to challenge
them in the nfcast, the Commanders and Cowboys. I have
both of them going under their win total this year.
The Commanders might be the team with the better roster
but the worst win loss record. I just don't know
(04:27):
that you can replicate converting eighty seven percent of your
fourth downs.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Which is what they did last year.
Speaker 4 (04:35):
They lived on the edge and it was one score
victories and it was impressive and it was remarkable that
it was being done by a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
But if that.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Regresses to the mean even a little bit, the Commanders
aren't under team. Remember they beat Tampa in that playoff
game by three points. Cowboys under eight and a half.
We talk about Dallas last year, like Dak Prescott got
hurt in the first game of the season, they were
three and five with Dak Prescott with non impressive wins
(05:05):
the end of the game, win against the Steelers, a
win over the Giants, a win over the Browns. It
was just not an impressive football team. And I think
they've got a ton of questions on their offensive line.
The Giants are an over team for me at five
and a half, even though their schedules absolutely brutal. Jeff
Schwartz was on yesterday he had their under there.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
There's no question the schedules brutal.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
But what if they're a top ten defense because they
were eighth and sacks last year and they added Abdul Carter.
Their front seven is nasty. Malik Naghbors is nasty. I
don't know what did Jackson Dard and Russell Wilson. It's
probably going to be bottom ten quarterback play in the
NFL and coaching GM are definitely on the hot seat.
(05:49):
But if you've got a top ten defense, you're in
a lot of games.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Let's go to the NFC South.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best organization in the
NFL that people just don't respect enough. Baker Mayfield last
two seasons comfortably inside the top ten in touchdowns, yards points.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
That's useful.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Over at nine and a half teams in the NFL
quick trivia question that have made the playoffs five or
more straight years. Three teams, Chiefs, Bills, Bucks. Now, some
of that's Tom Brady obviously, but Bucks are a well
oiled machine at this point.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
On the offensive side of the ball. Falcons have bit
me before.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
And I'm going to go back to the well here
and say the Falcons get over on seven and a
half wins. Michael Penis with his huge arms, seemed to
unlock some of the skill position guys who was like, hey,
let's draft Drake London and Kyle Pitts and v Jon
Robinson and then not give him the ball. It was
a bold strategy and it did not work out for him.
But Pennis looks really good in the three games, even
though he's an unconventional quarterback, but he fires the ball
(06:54):
down the field. And they've had the worst pass rush
in the NFL the last five years, and they used
two first round picks to go out and get some
young pass rushers, traded next year's first to move up,
and then their first round pick this year, so their
pass rush is even average. I think the Falcons are
an overteam, same with the Panthers. The schedule's easy, and
(07:15):
Bryce Young looked better at the end of the year,
and some of the upgrades, like if they are just
a bottom they're like the twenty second best defense in
the NFL instead of dead last, especially against the run
where they were historically terrible. And Bryce Young continues to progress.
Guy had seven touchdowns against zero picks in his last
three games. They can win seven games. The Saints, however,
(07:37):
cannot win six. The Saints are an under five and
a half team. I think they are tanking. I think
they are a prime trade candidate. I hope Alvin Kamara
does not finish the season with the Saints. The Saints,
by the way, went owens seven in games last year
whenever Derek Carr was not their starting quarterback and producer
noe Derek Carr not their starting quarterback to the NFC West.
(08:00):
The Rams have won over ten games in six of
the eight years with Sean McVay. It's embarrassing how much
I went back and forth on this total, just because
I do really worry about the injuries on their offensive line.
But Kuka Nakua, Devonte Adams, Sean McVay calling the plays,
with Matt Stafford slinging it with Fisk and Verse on
(08:21):
the defensive line, I just can't quit the Rams and
the Niners. Purty's not great, but he's good enough. Shanahan's
elite to me. The key is Christian McCaffrey's health. He's
worth four points per game when he's in the lineup
VERSU nine in the lineup for the Niners. Kyle Shanahan
got Alfred Morris to be productive, like with Atlanta, with
(08:42):
San Francisco, anybody produces in the running game for Kyle Shanahan,
you give him Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
It's a cheat code.
Speaker 4 (08:49):
All indications are that he is one hundred percent healthy,
changed his regimen is going to be good to.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Go for this year.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
The Seahawks at under eight and a half, I got
huge offensive line, I've got huge Sam Darnold questions. How
he finished last year in that game against the Vikings
and the playoff game leaves a bat. I mean, going
from Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson and that offensive line
to everything that he's got going on in Seattle right now,
(09:16):
that just feels like a rude awakening. But an absolutely
legendary offseason at the Bank. And then the Cardinals under
eight and a half struggled with this one too, but
they've only won more than eight games with Kyler Murray once.
I like Comparrison, I like McBride. They run the ball
when Kyler Murray is in there. But I think the
(09:36):
division is really good at the top, and I just can't.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Count on them to stay healthy.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
And they didn't do anything in terms of additions on
the offensive side of the ball. It's because the AFC,
we're doing it like a clock. I was told northeast Southwest.
It makes sense, AFC North, Yeah, checks, it works. You
don't have to double check me on then Ravens under
eleven and a half. Five of the first six games
are against playoff team from last year, and their offense
(10:03):
was so his story. I mean, Lamar Jackson had four
interceptions last year, Derrick Henry was healthy, it was an
impossible offense. Feels even though I think Z eight Flowers
will be much better this year, feels very difficult to
replicate that. I think that they can be a ten
win team that still is very dangerous and has a
very high ceiling, but with their schedule regresses a little bit.
(10:25):
It's also because I believe in the Bengals and the Steelers,
I have overs for both of them. This Bengals fact
is maybe my favorite one of the whole exercise that
we're doing here. As I go through all thirty two
over unders, they averaged twenty seven point eight points per
game last year. Last five years, if you score twenty
seven or more points on average, you win twelve games.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
They won nine. Just be competent defensively, use.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Three or your first four picks on defensive players in
the draft. Defensive coordinator bump. Bengals are double did you
win team. Steelers just have to be okay on offense
to hit this over. They're thirty seven and six in
their life last five years. If they score twenty points
in a game, thirty seven and six score twenty Aaron Rodgers,
you God, DK metcalf and John who Smith and Jalen
Warren in Friarmuth. Can you score twenty one points per game?
(11:11):
If you can, Mike Tomlin's gonna get you to over
eight and a half. Let's go through the Browns first
six game, shall we. You'll understand why they're at under
five and a half. Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings, Steelers. Yikes,
that feels like an zero to six start for the
Cleveland Browns. I got them under five and a half
wins to the AFC East the Buffalo Bills. No one's
(11:33):
caught up to them in this division. Patriots have gotten better,
no doubt about it. But I think people are going
a little crazy there. Buffalo is odds on favorite to
be the one seed in the AFC, the biggest favorite
to win a division of any team in the NFL.
Awesome offensive line, a few key defensive additions, the MVP
of the league, a balanced attack. Finally, the young wide
(11:55):
receivers like Shakira and Coleman should only get better.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
They bludge into teams.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
In the regular season best regular season point differential the
last five years. Bills are a clear overteam at eleven
and a half. The Patriots I feel like raised their floor,
but not their ceiling. I love Drake may I own
all the Drake maystock you could possibly own. They've had
one year where they've won more than eight games since
Tom Brady, and it feels like they're one year away
(12:20):
from getting there. I like what they did, it's about
like the infrastructure and the guts and the team, but
I still think they need a little bit more, you know,
weapons and help to put the ball in the end
zone for Drake may So, I think they're a year
away from being a playoff team. I mean, the Jets
are a disaster. Jets are an under five and a
half win team. And I love Justin Fields as a guy,
but he is not in a good situation to be successful,
(12:42):
despite any reports that he knew Garrett Wilson in college. Fine,
that's not enough for them to win six games this season,
and the Dolphins at seven and a half, the injuries
are already starting to pile up and to a I
mean when he played seventeen games, great, when he doesn't,
no one else can operate Mike McDaniel's offense.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
And talk to a Dolphins fan, they're like, the NFL
has figured out our offense. That's not good.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
If every Dolphins fans like, yeah, everyone knows what's coming
every single play, probably not a good recipe to win
eight or nine games. Let's go to the AFC South
as we go through all thirty two NFL over unders
this year. The Texans were five and one against the
AFC South last year and five and six against everyone else, won.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
In five against playoff teams.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes they had offensive line injuries, Yes they had wide
receiver injuries, but CJ. Stroud spent most of the season
on his back looking up at the domed ceiling, and
then they traded away Laramie Tunsel. I don't get that
one under nine and a half for the Texans. I
think the Colts are a good organization with a good coach,
and people seem to love Daniel Jones. Okay, fine, I
(13:47):
love Anthony Richardson's talent, but they've won eight or more
games in four of the last five years. The Colts
are good. The Colts are feisty. They maybe don't have
as high as a ceiling as some of these other teams,
but they've won eight or more games in four of
the last five years despite having eight different quarterbacks. It's
(14:08):
a good organization. Jaguars under seven and a half. I mean,
Liam Cohen, maybe I love Travis Hunter, but I got
to see it before I believe it. They've gone under
their win total in three of four years with Trevor
Lawrence as their starting quarterback. The Titans offense last year
was so historically bad that if cam Ward gives them anything,
(14:29):
I think they hit their over on five and a
half wins, fourth worst in the NFL, averaging one hundred
and eighty two passing yards the last three seasons. If
he gets them to like two twenty five, that's such
a massive improvement. I think they can eke out six wins.
So the division that people think is the best in
the NFL will wrap it up. In the AFC West,
(14:53):
the Chiefs aren't over team until prove it otherwise.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
It's a cliche, but they know how to win.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
But they improve their offensive line, they improve the health
of the receiver corps. They lost Joe Tooney, but they
seem to have upgraded at left tackle. Their defense is
top three in the NFL, twelve or more wins in
six of seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a starter.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Andy Reid is an over machine.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
He hit his overs when he had Alex Smith as
this quarterback in Kansas City. They're a thirteen win team
until proven otherwise. You guys know, I can't quit Justin
Herbert and the Chargers, but number one scoring defense year
two of Harball, first round pick, running back, second round pick,
deep threat, wide receiver to help out Lad McConkie, an
(15:36):
absolute stud, arguably the best tackle duo in the NFL.
Harball goes eleven and six last year.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is an over for the Chargers.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Broncos went five to five through ten games and then
they won five of their last seven. They are a
very good team. This is a very good division. Someone
has to go up under and I'm betting on there
being a little bit of a plateau for the Broncos
offense and we'll see. I mean Ingram Hufanga, GreenWave. They
(16:05):
made additions, but they also have some injury concerns. For me,
with some of the guys that they added, so I'm
not ready to say that they're a back to back
double digit win team, but the Raiders go over on
six and a half. No team in the NFL upgraded more.
At coach and quarterback Gino Smith is good. He's not great,
but he is accurate. He slings it, and he had
(16:28):
no offensive line. There are questions about the Raiders offensive line,
no doubt, but my point is he's used to it,
and now he gets a confident head coach, he gets
Ashton Gent, he.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Gets brock Bauers.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
That's going to be a fun team to watch and
a really difficult team to gain plan against. So I
think the Raiders are a pesky team in the AFC
this year. And that concludes thirty two NFL over unders.
It feels like what twenty nine and three, I guess
it's spread right there. I felt like twenty nine and
three a little shaky on maybe the Cardinals the Panthers,
(16:59):
But hey, if you go sixty five percent, I guess
the spread of the NFL last year, you gotta have
some confidence heading into the next year. So that's how
I see the NFL heading into the twenty twenty five
NFL season.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
How much longer. Are the Cowboys gonna wait to pay? Mic?
Speaker 4 (17:15):
We go around the NFL with who Mike Jones? Sorry
I had to Danny Parkinson for Colin.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
This is the hurt.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
One more heard. The Herd streams twenty four hours a day,
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Speaker 5 (17:32):
Hey, we're Cavino and Rich Fox Sports Radio every day
five to seven pm Eastern. But here's the thing, we
never have enough time to get to everything we want
to get to.
Speaker 6 (17:41):
And that's why we have a brand new podcast called
over Promised. You see, we're having so much fun in
our two hour show. We never get to everything, honestly,
because this guy is over promising things we never have
time for.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Yeah, you blubber list name in me.
Speaker 5 (17:55):
Well you know what it's called over promise. You should
be good at it because you've been over promising women
for years.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
Well, it's a Covino and Rich after show, and we
want you to be a part of it. We're gonna
be talking sports, of course, but we're also going to
talk life and relationships and if Rich and I are
arguing about something or we didn't have enough time, it
will continue on our after show called over Promised.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Well, if you don't get enough Covino and Rich, make
sure you check out over Promised and also Uncensored by
the way, so maybe we'll go at it even a
little harder. It's gonna be the best after show podcast
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Speaker 6 (18:24):
There you go, over Promising and remember you could see
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Speaker 4 (18:35):
Welcome back in to the Herd. I'm Danny Parkins or
Colin Cowhard. Coming up in a little bit, we'll get
to a quarterback from last year who probably deserves a
little bit more hype heading into this year, but he's
a victim of circumstance. But right now, let's go around
the NFL our next guest covers the league for the
Athletic National NFL writer Mike Jones with us on the
(18:59):
Hurries cover the NFL for the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Mike, thank you so much for the time.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
I began today's show reacting to Jimmy Haslum's comments about
Arch Manning because he says he's probably going to stay
in college for two years. It's very rare that we
have a college prospects talked about as the number one
pick before he's really accomplished anything in college. I get it,
the last name on the Jersey Heisman Trophy favorite second
best team in the country. But I'm curious, how do
(19:26):
you think the league at this point views arch Manning
the NFL prospect.
Speaker 7 (19:31):
I mean, they've only seen a little flashes here and
there of him.
Speaker 8 (19:34):
You haven't seen him in a full time basis, So
I don't think that anybody's getting overly exciting. Obviously, there's
intrigue there because of the name and the athleticism and
ability that you see, but let's wait until we see him,
you know, as a full time starter, and you know,
then I think that we'll have a better idea. Obviously
people have been taking notes. They have the body of
(19:57):
work or that he's shown, even though it's limited, But
I haven't talked to any scouts or anybody that's like
overly excited about him this early.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
So a guy who people were overly excited about, and
I would say for good reason, was Travis Hunter. And
I think he's going to break the record for most
snaps played in a season as a rookie.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
If he distituted.
Speaker 4 (20:18):
What he did last year in college in the pros,
he would shatter it, and he did that in thirteen games.
The Jaguars seem to be like, very committed to playing
him both ways, but everyone on the outside is like,
are they really going to play him both ways? How
do you think this is going to go?
Speaker 8 (20:33):
You know, it's going to be a real interesting experiment
as we see them go out there, because look, you've
got to see what his effectiveness is going to be. Obviously,
in training camp and the practices, he probably looks good.
Speaker 7 (20:44):
You know, he's got good conditioning.
Speaker 8 (20:45):
We've seen him play multiple seasons this way, but the
NFL is just another level up the physicality, the speed
and everything. So I think there's going to be a
you know, maybe a snap count that they have on
him early on they try to figure out what he
can handle, how he's able to be effective, you know,
as a wide receiver, as a defensive back. I talked
(21:08):
to scouts who feel like he is an elite level
defensive back and probably a pretty decent wide receiver. Did
talk to one that thought he might be a better
receiver with his boss skills than a cornerback. But odd
he is really excited to see how they handle this
and what his ability to handle the workload and play
at an high level is going to be.
Speaker 4 (21:29):
Like my theory on it is we are all former athletes,
regular people like you and may media. We are behind
in understanding the full impacts of sports science and how
amazing the modern athletes are. The example I users like
back in the day, oh running back hits twenty seven,
(21:49):
they're falling off the cliff. Now we've got Derrick Henry
at thirty approaching two thousand yard seasons like it's nothing right.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
Athletes have just gotten better.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
We see in Green Bay they're working out Bowl Melton,
trying to maybe turn him into a two way player
because of some injuries that they had at corner. I
feel like if Travis Hunter works, it could open the
floodgates for these elite athletes and we could start seeing
more guys try to do it.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Or do you think I'm insane?
Speaker 8 (22:13):
No, I don't think you're insane. I do think that
everybody's going to be watching. I think there are kids
in college and coaches in college who are going to
be watching and as you see more guys come out
and more guys able to execute at an elite level.
If there is a two way player, then sure there
will be a ripple effect throughout the NFL. And you're
definitely right, Like the science behind all of this has changed.
(22:36):
These guys have chips on their uniforms, in their pads
that they can look and see how many miles power
he's running in the first part of practice compared to
the last part of practice, in the first quarter of
a game as opposed to the fourth quarter of the game.
Speaker 7 (22:50):
So they're going to have all of the science.
Speaker 8 (22:52):
Even if he's saying I feel good, they'll be able
to tell if he's slowing down, if there's a drop
off or anything like that. And so all of that
science is going to go in to the decision on
how much of a workload they give him, and it's
just going to be fascinating.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Mike Jones from the Athletic is our guest. So Trey
Hendrickson reports to camp. Terry McLaurin reports the camp. They
don't have new contracts yet. My theory is basically, in
a post leveon bell World, it's an endangered species, like
the true holdout of missing games.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
So I know Chris.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
Jones did it, I know Jonathan Taylor did it, but
it's it's way less now than back in the day
because the money is just so insane. It's so hard
for these guys to really turn it down. So I
view offseason contract consternation as just media filler, like, oh,
Trey Hendrickson's upset with his contract. Yeah, it's July he's
supposed to be, or it was May he was supposed
to be.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
And I think that these are inevitable that they are
going to get done. What about you?
Speaker 7 (23:48):
I do think they get done.
Speaker 8 (23:50):
It's unfortunate for the players that in the last CBA
they negotiated and so the teams can find them fifty
thousand dollars a day, and.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
So that adds up.
Speaker 8 (23:58):
You hang out for three day and you're like, okay,
that's one hundred and fifty dollars fine, and then it
starts really getting a little painful and you decide to
come back, and we'll see more hold ends rather than
hold outs. You know, Yes, I think that eventually these
two sides are talking in Cincinnati, the two sides are
talking in Washington, they'll eventually get something done because obviously
(24:21):
the pressure is there for these coaches to win, they
need these marquee players, and so these owners will drag
their feet, drag their feet, but eventually everybody's gonna come
to the point and get it all done, and all
this would have been for nothing.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
What do you think about the reputation that Dallas is
stacking up now about how they handle their star players contracts.
Speaker 7 (24:44):
It's the cowboy way.
Speaker 8 (24:45):
It's Jerry Jones, and I think that he loves this
because what does he love is the Cowboys being on
the forefront of everybody's mind and talking about them. And
he press is good press for him. And so we've
seen him do it again and again and again, drag
his feet on paying a top level player, a guy
who has proven himself to be very valuable, and then
(25:08):
the last minute he finally winds up opening the checkbook,
even though it cost him tens of thousands and you know,
millions of dollars more, rather than have taken care of
the guy way earlier. And then every time somebody at
the position signs a new contract, the price tag goes up.
And so Micah Parsons is going to wind up surpassing TJ.
(25:30):
Watt as far as the highest paid pass rusher. It's
just a matter of time.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Let me Devil's advocate that one. Though Michah Parsons should
make more money than TJ. Watt, he's younger, and Dak
Prescott had a no tag clause and a no trade clause.
So he wanted Jordan Love to sign first. He wanted
to sign for Ceedee Lamb, wanted to see what Justin
(25:55):
Jefferson would do to set the market. Micah Parsons wants
to wait for my Garrett and TJ.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Watt. Like when you have truly elite Tier.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
One players at their position with leverage, the player probably
wants to wait too for the Cowboys to get these
deals done.
Speaker 8 (26:14):
I'm sure there's part of them that would just like
to get it out of the way. But at the
same time, I think that's probably part of the reason
why Michael Parson was like, hey, look, I'm coming to work.
Speaker 7 (26:22):
I owe this to my teammates.
Speaker 8 (26:23):
I want to be in the best position to be
able to help us win because he knows, hey, eventually
it's going to get done, and as like you said,
more guys in my position get paid my price, sat
keeps going up, and Jerry's going to wind up doing
what Jerry does and make me the highest paid player
in the league at my position. And so yes, it's
probably annoying having it hanging over, but they know eventually
(26:44):
it's all going to work out for them.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
Is there anything that could happen in Pittsburgh this year
where we would even say that forget hot seat, that
the seat was lukewarm for Mike Tomlin?
Speaker 7 (26:57):
I think so.
Speaker 8 (26:58):
I think this has really the touch would be disastrously bad,
you know. I mean this Aaron Rodgers that we see
right here is not the same guy that we're thinking
of from Green Bay. We did see him look a
little better down the stretch of the season with the
Jets last year. But if he and Arthur Smith don't
(27:19):
gel just right, if the offense isn't clicking, what does
Aaron Rodgers do when things aren't going well? He starts
pointing fingers. He'll pull back the curtain on the ineffectiveness
of the organization. People have said for a while that
as great a leader as Mike Tomlin is, he has
not evolved the practices of that organization and that coaching
(27:42):
staff and the way they do things. And so if
Aaron Rodgers, if things don't go well and there's finger
pointing and things like that that he is known for
as of late, then yeah, things will look bad and
go poorly. And you know, that seat for Mike Tomlin
could heat up because they basically just pushed all their
chips to the middle this year. Very on Pittsburgh Steelers
(28:03):
like offseason, and if it doesn't plan out well, then
you know then we could be asking questions.
Speaker 4 (28:09):
All right, I want to get your take on my guy,
Justin Herbert. The guy's the ultimate eye test quarterback. Four
interceptions even though a couple were off his guy's hands,
and his interior offensive line was collapsing around him. Still
bad playoff game AH and two in the playoffs. But
I am just convinced from watching the guy play football
that he's a star and he's going to do great things.
(28:30):
Where do you come out on eye test versus actual
results for the team For Justin Herbert.
Speaker 8 (28:36):
I agree with you that he is as talented as
they come. His ceiling is very high. My question is
everything around him. I do think that Harball was good
for him last year. I think another season with him
would be good for him. The questions are just, okay,
does he have enough as far as weapons around him?
Did they really improve the line significantly enough? You know,
(28:58):
they got Makai Beckton, but you know he was really
good last year with Philadelphia, which is an offensive line factory,
and they work together so well. Is he going to
be as effective in a new surroundings? You know, does
Justin Herbert have the wide receivers to go to enough weapons?
Because the thing is they're in this division with the Chiefs,
(29:18):
and until somebody proves they can knock off the Chiefs,
you know, I will take them every time. So, yes,
he's super talented. He gives you everything you could ask
for in a quarterback, but everything around him is the
big question.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
The guy who has everything around him is Jalen Hurts,
and Philly fans get mad at me because I say,
Jalen Hurts is a top ten quarterback who benefits tremendously
from having guys that are better at their jobs than
he is at his around him. He's clutch, he's a leader,
he's smart. But for example, like Saquon Barkley is a
(29:54):
better running back than Jalen Hurts as a quarterback AJ
Brown is a better receiver than Hurts as a quarterback. Lange,
Jordan Mailatta, Jalen Carter, et cetera. I don't see that
as a knock on Hurts. Anyone would benefit from being
in that situation.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
And then you add he's clutched.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
He's a gamer, he's a leader, he's smart, and that's
what leads you to bludgeoning teams on the way to
the Super Bowl. How do you evaluate Hurts individually amidst
the super team that's around him.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
I think he's super underrated.
Speaker 8 (30:25):
I mean, the dude just makes the plays that he
has to make when you need him the most. He's
got an accurate deep ball, he can extend plays. He's
a strong, powerful runner. He's got good instincts. He doesn't
force things. He just really basically is disciplined and says, Okay,
I'm gonna take what the defense gives to me. He
doesn't care what his stats look like if it means
(30:46):
that they're winning. And he's got the best mindset that
you could ask for in a quarterback.
Speaker 7 (30:50):
And so I don't get the.
Speaker 8 (30:54):
Lack of love for him because he just proved this
past year what he was able to do and he
just you know, he kept doing it again and again.
Speaker 7 (31:04):
Yes, he's got a lot to work with.
Speaker 8 (31:05):
He's got a great offensive line, great weapons, you know,
running back at receiver, great defense. But still he makes
the big plays when they need them the most. And
so I think that he is one of the top
of his position.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
One of the top, so the top, like behind the
Big four. You would put him right next right behind
Lamar Burrow, Allen Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
He's you said, you put him right there.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
I think he's got to be right there. Yeah, you
know after that that those guys. I mean, he's got
the Super Bowl ring, he's got the productions again, he's
got the.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Well, well, hey, he was twenty second in the league
and pass attempt that he had less than twenty passing touchdowns,
the production.
Speaker 8 (31:47):
But that's not his fault. That they have Saquon Barkley.
I would hand it off to him too. But when
you ask him to put the ball in the air
and to make the plays, he makes the plays. So
I mean, who's whose fault is that that he's not
passing more? I mean he could pass more. You know,
Brown J. Brown's frustrated because they're not throwing more. But
they just know that, Hey, like you said, we've got
(32:09):
an elite running back, we've got an elite offensive line.
We believe in balance and it's working.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
So for first four games of last year, there were
two and two when he was throwing the ball thirty
two to thirty three times a game, and they're like,
we're gonna start running more.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
And again, he's really good.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
But they wont all the playoff games without throwing more
than twenty eight times in the game because they just
bludgeon people and then play from a lead.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
It's it's a super team and he benefits from it.
Speaker 4 (32:33):
And I feel like that's an okay thing to say
he runs their system perfectly.
Speaker 7 (32:37):
He does. And also I.
Speaker 8 (32:39):
Really am waiting for the year that we can see
him in a system consecutive years instead of changing offensive
coordinators every single year, because then I think we'll really
see him go to another level.
Speaker 7 (32:51):
Fortunately, they're often dated.
Speaker 8 (32:52):
This year has been there for a while, so hopefully
has a little more continuity. But again, the guy makes
the plays when you need him. He gets the job
I've done. I'm not complaining about him.
Speaker 4 (33:02):
Mike Jones covers the NFL for the Athletic. Thank you, sir,
all right, have a good one.
Speaker 7 (33:07):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Absolutely it was our pleasure.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Thank you.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
That's Mike Jones covers the NFL for the Athletic. Now,
that's the craziest jail and hurts stat of.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
All of them.
Speaker 4 (33:14):
Going back to college, it's like nine offensive coordinators in
nine years. That is ridiculous. And again it's why I
always lead with unbelievably smart, unbelievable leader. But coming up next,
last year's quarterback class was historic, and frankly, I think
there's one guy who probably should be looking around and
be like, why am I not getting a little bit
more love? Tell you who it is next. Dany Parkinson
(33:35):
for Colin.
Speaker 3 (33:35):
On the Hurd.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
and neon Eastern n a Empacific on Fox Sports Radio
FS one and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
Back in on the Herd, I'm Danny parkins in for
Colin Cowhard insane expectations for arch Manning in his first
year as a starter. We'll get to it coming up
at the top of the hour and next hour. Eric
Mangini going to join the show as well. So last
year's quarterback class in the NFL was special. I mean,
(34:15):
six quarterbacks get taken in the first round. There's obviously
a lot of very very high end talent at that spot,
and part of this is just how the media works.
But Caleb Williams had all the hype USC celebrity quarterback,
number one pick, former Heisman Trophy winner goes to a
(34:37):
big market team that's quarterback starved in Chicago. That's going
to be a massive story. Then Jaden Daniels number two pick,
NFC Championship, Drake may third pick, all right, looks interesting
but has nothing around him. We'll get to that in
a minute. JJ McCarthy gets hurt. Okay, fine, we'll punt
(34:59):
on that. But it's Michigan, it's Kevin O'Connell, justin Jefferson.
They end up winning fourteen games, fascinating.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
We'll get to that. And then there was bow Knicks.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
And I know Michael Pennix too, but we'll get to
Penis in a second.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Bow Knicks.
Speaker 4 (35:15):
If it was not for Jade and Daniels would be
able to say, hey, guys, where's my hype, where's my love?
Because he had more passing yards and more touchdowns passing
than Jade and Daniels did. If I just told you
bow Knicks's resume second most passing touchdowns ever for a
(35:41):
rookie quarterback, and he went to the playoffs and he
had Sean Payton, he'd be We'd be talking a ton
about this guy. I hate the NFL Top one hundred list.
I think the players don't apply any consistency to it.
They really only rate it seems like last year, instead
of a body of work to truly and fairly evaluate
(36:02):
a player. I think it's mostly a useless exercise, but
it does sometimes lead to interesting quotes or sound bites.
Bo Knicks came in ranked sixty fourth among his peers
after his rookie year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Here's how he responded.
Speaker 9 (36:14):
I think it's it's obviously a cool honor for you know,
because that's your peers thing, that's you know guys, guys
you play. But at the same time, you know, just
the way I think, the way I am motivated, I
want to continue to, uh, you know, get higher, and
not even for the the ranking. You know, it doesn't
(36:36):
really matter what you're ranked. It's just you know, an
internal standard that I have that I want to be
the best in the world, And I know there's a
lot of guys that I'm competing for that with, and
you know I'm not going to stop at least give
it my best.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
Try so cliches. Notwithstanding he's on his way. Do I
think he's gonna be the best in the world. No,
But I'll tell you this, if you watched Theos the
first three and a half four games of last season,
it was like, Yo, does bonis belong in the league?
Speaker 3 (37:09):
What is going on here?
Speaker 4 (37:12):
And then by the end of the season, they've won
double digit games, They're in the playoffs. He had twenty
nine passing touchdowns and some of his highlights were absolutely insane,
like justin Herbert is dining out in a lot of
people's mind off that thirty one touchdown pass rookie season
that he had.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
Bon Nicks had twenty nine.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
And was in the playoffs and acquitted himself well. And
Sean Payton obviously believed in a Maaton. There have been
the Drew Brees comparisons. I think that's more coach than style,
but there are a few similarities that you can see
in terms of just pocket passer that sort of thing.
But it's a it's a quarterback class that I find
(37:55):
fascinating because we can reverse order it.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
We talked about bo Nicks.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
The Broncos are obviously thrilled with what they got out
of bo Nicks, absolutely through thirty seven hundred passing yards,
three to one touchdown, the interception ratio. Just I guess
a little worse than three three to one, two and
a half to one touchdown the interception ratio, and a
playoff appearance. The Falcons in three games with Michael Pennix,
(38:22):
felt like he unlocked their offense in terms of Bijon
Robinson and Drake London and putting the ball in the
end zone. And he's also just fun to watch a
lefty with a rocket arm. It's it's unconventional, but it
think about the vote of confidence that Atlanta has shown
(38:43):
in Penix. They gave Kirk Cousins one hundred million guaranteed,
one hundred and eighty million dollars and off three games
they're like, Yep, Penix is our guy.
Speaker 3 (38:51):
That's pretty significant.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
So Bijon, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Okay, now you got
Michael Pennox. Let's see what the Falcon can do. Falcons
happy with their guy, Broncos happy with their guy, JJ McCarthy.
Kevin O'Connell believes in him enough that he traded up
one spot to get him. Sam Darnald won fourteen games
last season through for what forty five hundred yards, was
(39:17):
good enough to get one hundred million dollars, and the
Vikings were like, yeah, we're good. We're turning it over
to the guy coming off the injury, who didn't throw
it a ton in college, who won national championship. But
how much of it was the system around him, how
much of it was him? We're going to turn it
over to JJ McCarthy. That's a massive vote of confidence
for a guy who has thrown pre season passes in
(39:41):
his NFL career to move on from Sam Darnald. And
by the way, I supported the move. The point of
this exercise is it is very rare that you can have.
First of all, it's rare to have six quarterbacks taken
in a first round, but it's very rare that you
go through a full season of the NFL and every
team is still.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Happy about the guy they drafted.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Atlanta happy about Pennix, Denver happy about bo Nicks, Minnesota
clearly happy, happy about jj McCarthy, They moved on from
Sam Darnold in New England. Drake May had the worst
offensive line in football.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
They fired a coach and basically.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
No one listening right now can name a single pass
catcher on the team. And the guy was standing at
the end of the year, made awesome throws, carried himself
like a pro, got better as the year went on,
displayed some serious toughness, and now all of a sudden,
upgraded coach a couple hundred million bucks in free agent contracts. Later,
(40:46):
you add Stefan Diggs, you give him Josh McDaniels. You
kind of have the organization catch up to the talent
of the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
All of a sudden, the Patriots.
Speaker 4 (40:55):
When people start making official predictions, my guess is half
the media thinks they're going to the playoffs this year.
Vegas has them as an eight or a nine win team.
That's a tremendous vote of confidence for a guy who
threw fifteen touchdowns last year. Then Jade and Daniels, no
one needs to say anything about third down, fourth down,
one score games, playoff games, NFC Championship game. It's probably
(41:17):
the most impressive when you combine stats and winning. I
would argue it's the most impressive rookie season we've ever
had because what they were actually asking him to do.
And then Caleb the number one pick, the team that
did not even bring in Jade and Daniels did not
even bring in Drake May. He's the guy that everyone
has the most questions about. It's a wild quarterback draw.
(41:40):
Just think back to that Trevor Lawrence draft. After year one,
it was like, okay, well we got massive questions about
Justin Fields.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
We got massive questions about Trey Lance. There are some
questions about Mac Jones.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Trevor Lawrence still hasn't answered it all these years later,
and Zach Wilson wears he So it's really rare to
have that many quarterbacks. And if we did it all again,
obviously everyone would want Jayden Daniels, But other than that,
everyone's thrilled with who they got.
Speaker 3 (42:08):
And then there's poor Boonix with twenty nine.
Speaker 4 (42:10):
Touchdowns in a playoff appearance, being like no one ever
talks about me. It really was one of the great
rookie seasons that we've seen, and we'll see how we
builds on it coming up for this year. What do
the Browns say about arsh Manning. Are they already throwing
cold water on it? That's coming up next, Danny Parker's
in for Colin to hurt
Thanks for listening to The Herd podcast. Be sure to
catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports Radio in
noon to three Eastern nine am to noon Pacific. Find
your local station for The Herd at Fox Sports Radio
dot com, or stream us live every day on the
iHeartRadio app by searching Fox Sports Radio or FSR.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Our number two, The Herd.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
I'm Danny Parkins from FS one and soon to be
First things first in for Colin Coward.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Absolute thrill to be here. Thank you very.
Speaker 4 (00:38):
Much for tuning in and listening wherever you are. Colin
does his blazing five. He's been doing it for a while.
Who does sharps thing?
Speaker 5 (00:49):
I should just.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Ask what do I think?
Speaker 4 (00:51):
Because I went sixty five percent in the NFL against
the spread last year.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
You're like, why does he keep bringing it up?
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Because that's really hard to do and it was the
best year of my life. Although it is back to
back sixty plus percent seasons against the spread in the NFL.
So I couldn't pass up the opportunity being in this
chair for Colin to leave you with some wagering opportunities.
If you see fit how I see the NFL heading
(01:17):
in to the twenty twenty five twenty twenty six season,
Why do you a five favorite over under or ten
favorite over under when you can give your thirty two
favorite over unders for the upcoming NFL season. Let's begin
in the NFC North, where I've picked the Lions to
be in the Super Bowl back to back years. Not
sure if I'll do it again this year, but I'm
(01:38):
definitely picking.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Them for over.
Speaker 4 (01:41):
At ten and a half twenty seven wins over the
last two seasons, most in the NFL, that's more than
the Kansas City Chiefs interior offensive line questions, loss of
coordinator questions. But if their defense is just normal hurt
instead of extreme hurt, the offense is too good. That's
still an eleven or twelve win team. Yes, in that division. Yes,
(02:01):
with their schedule. The Vikings were nine and one in
one score games last year. I like JJ McCarthy, I
love Kevin O'Connell, but that's an under.
Speaker 3 (02:12):
That's an under if I've ever seen one. For them
at nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
Fourteen wins felt like a fluke last year, win seven
eight games, have your quarterback for the future, They'll be fine.
The Packers are under at nine and a half, this
division is going to be very bunched up. I think
between two, three and four. Obviously those could finish in
any order. Two and six against teams that made the
playoffs last year were the Green Bay Packers, and I
(02:39):
was surprised. I know they love Golden the first round pick.
I was surprised they invested another asset into receiver. On
the offensive side of the ball, they need more pass rush.
For me, they lived and died by the turnover last year.
With the new defensive coordinator, Bump and McKinney had an
unbelievable first year in Green Bay. If they don't have
as much turnover luck this year, I think it's more
like an eight win season for the Packers. And I
(03:01):
know the Bears are the all hype team, but everything
in the world went wrong for them last year.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
If just a few things.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Go right, the amount of upgrades that they had at coach,
play caller, offensive line, defensive line, two tight ends, set
second year of Caleb Williams in the pros, people like, oh,
Kayleb Williams was a bust.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Kayleb Williams wasn't good.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
That was the best quarterback season that the Bears had
had in a decade. Not hyperbole, thirty five hundred passing
yards was the most the Bear's quarterback had had since
twenty sixteen. He'll be better. The Bears will be better.
They're a nine or a ten win team this season.
Let's go to the NFC East. The Eagles are the
best team in football. The Eagles aren't over team. They're
(03:46):
totals at eleven and a half, which is very high,
but they've gone over their win total under Nick Siriani
three of four years, and if they have no weaknesses,
it's hard to pick them to not hit their over
You could say, well, it could be injuries.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Sure, it could be injuries for any team.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
I'm not going to go thirty two for thirty two though,
that is the goal on this exercise. But also part
of it for the Eagles is that I think the
next two teams that everyone thinks are going to challenge
them in the nfcast, the Commanders and Cowboys. I have
both of them going under their win total this year.
The Commanders might be the team with the better roster
but the worst win loss record. I just don't know
(04:27):
that you can replicate converting eighty seven percent of your
fourth downs.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
Which is what they did last year.
Speaker 4 (04:35):
They lived on the edge and it was one score
victories and it was impressive and it was remarkable that
it was being done by a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
But if that.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Regresses to the mean even a little bit, the Commanders
aren't under team. Remember they beat Tampa in that playoff
game by three points. Cowboys under eight and a half.
We talk about Dallas last year, like Dak Prescott got
hurt in the first game of the season, they were
three and five with Dak Prescott with non impressive wins
(05:05):
the end of the game, win against the Steelers, a
win over the Giants, a win over the Browns. It
was just not an impressive football team. And I think
they've got a ton of questions on their offensive line.
The Giants are an over team for me at five
and a half, even though their schedules absolutely brutal. Jeff
Schwartz was on yesterday he had their under there.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
There's no question the schedules brutal.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
But what if they're a top ten defense because they
were eighth and sacks last year and they added Abdul Carter.
Their front seven is nasty. Malik Naghbors is nasty. I
don't know what did Jackson Dard and Russell Wilson. It's
probably going to be bottom ten quarterback play in the
NFL and coaching GM are definitely on the hot seat.
(05:49):
But if you've got a top ten defense, you're in
a lot of games.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Let's go to the NFC South.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best organization in the
NFL that people just don't respect enough. Baker Mayfield last
two seasons comfortably inside the top ten in touchdowns, yards points.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
That's useful.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
Over at nine and a half teams in the NFL
quick trivia question that have made the playoffs five or
more straight years. Three teams, Chiefs, Bills, Bucks. Now, some
of that's Tom Brady obviously, but Bucks are a well
oiled machine at this point.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
On the offensive side of the ball. Falcons have bit
me before.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
And I'm going to go back to the well here
and say the Falcons get over on seven and a
half wins. Michael Penis with his huge arms, seemed to
unlock some of the skill position guys who was like, hey,
let's draft Drake London and Kyle Pitts and v Jon
Robinson and then not give him the ball. It was
a bold strategy and it did not work out for him.
But Pennis looks really good in the three games, even
though he's an unconventional quarterback, but he fires the ball
(06:54):
down the field. And they've had the worst pass rush
in the NFL the last five years, and they used
two first round picks to go out and get some
young pass rushers, traded next year's first to move up,
and then their first round pick this year, so their
pass rush is even average. I think the Falcons are
an overteam, same with the Panthers. The schedule's easy, and
(07:15):
Bryce Young looked better at the end of the year,
and some of the upgrades, like if they are just
a bottom they're like the twenty second best defense in
the NFL instead of dead last, especially against the run
where they were historically terrible. And Bryce Young continues to progress.
Guy had seven touchdowns against zero picks in his last
three games. They can win seven games. The Saints, however,
(07:37):
cannot win six. The Saints are an under five and
a half team. I think they are tanking. I think
they are a prime trade candidate. I hope Alvin Kamara
does not finish the season with the Saints. The Saints,
by the way, went owens seven in games last year
whenever Derek Carr was not their starting quarterback and producer
noe Derek Carr not their starting quarterback to the NFC West.
(08:00):
The Rams have won over ten games in six of
the eight years with Sean McVay. It's embarrassing how much
I went back and forth on this total, just because
I do really worry about the injuries on their offensive line.
But Kuka Nakua, Devonte Adams, Sean McVay calling the plays,
with Matt Stafford slinging it with Fisk and Verse on
(08:21):
the defensive line, I just can't quit the Rams and
the Niners. Purty's not great, but he's good enough. Shanahan's
elite to me. The key is Christian McCaffrey's health. He's
worth four points per game when he's in the lineup
VERSU nine in the lineup for the Niners. Kyle Shanahan
got Alfred Morris to be productive, like with Atlanta, with
(08:42):
San Francisco, anybody produces in the running game for Kyle Shanahan,
you give him Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
It's a cheat code.
Speaker 4 (08:49):
All indications are that he is one hundred percent healthy,
changed his regimen is going to be good to.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Go for this year.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
The Seahawks at under eight and a half, I got
huge offensive line, I've got huge Sam Darnold questions. How
he finished last year in that game against the Vikings
and the playoff game leaves a bat. I mean, going
from Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson and that offensive line
to everything that he's got going on in Seattle right now,
(09:16):
that just feels like a rude awakening. But an absolutely
legendary offseason at the Bank. And then the Cardinals under
eight and a half struggled with this one too, but
they've only won more than eight games with Kyler Murray once.
I like Comparrison, I like McBride. They run the ball
when Kyler Murray is in there. But I think the
(09:36):
division is really good at the top, and I just can't.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Count on them to stay healthy.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
And they didn't do anything in terms of additions on
the offensive side of the ball. It's because the AFC,
we're doing it like a clock. I was told northeast Southwest.
It makes sense, AFC North, Yeah, checks, it works. You
don't have to double check me on then Ravens under
eleven and a half. Five of the first six games
are against playoff team from last year, and their offense
(10:03):
was so his story. I mean, Lamar Jackson had four
interceptions last year, Derrick Henry was healthy, it was an
impossible offense. Feels even though I think Z eight Flowers
will be much better this year, feels very difficult to
replicate that. I think that they can be a ten
win team that still is very dangerous and has a
very high ceiling, but with their schedule regresses a little bit.
(10:25):
It's also because I believe in the Bengals and the Steelers,
I have overs for both of them. This Bengals fact
is maybe my favorite one of the whole exercise that
we're doing here. As I go through all thirty two
over unders, they averaged twenty seven point eight points per
game last year. Last five years, if you score twenty
seven or more points on average, you win twelve games.
Speaker 3 (10:44):
They won nine. Just be competent defensively, use.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
Three or your first four picks on defensive players in
the draft. Defensive coordinator bump. Bengals are double did you
win team. Steelers just have to be okay on offense
to hit this over. They're thirty seven and six in
their life last five years. If they score twenty points
in a game, thirty seven and six score twenty Aaron Rodgers,
you God, DK metcalf and John who Smith and Jalen
Warren in Friarmuth. Can you score twenty one points per game?
(11:11):
If you can, Mike Tomlin's gonna get you to over
eight and a half. Let's go through the Browns first
six game, shall we. You'll understand why they're at under
five and a half. Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings, Steelers. Yikes,
that feels like an zero to six start for the
Cleveland Browns. I got them under five and a half
wins to the AFC East the Buffalo Bills. No one's
(11:33):
caught up to them in this division. Patriots have gotten better,
no doubt about it. But I think people are going
a little crazy there. Buffalo is odds on favorite to
be the one seed in the AFC, the biggest favorite
to win a division of any team in the NFL.
Awesome offensive line, a few key defensive additions, the MVP
of the league, a balanced attack. Finally, the young wide
(11:55):
receivers like Shakira and Coleman should only get better.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
They bludge into teams.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
In the regular season best regular season point differential the
last five years. Bills are a clear overteam at eleven
and a half. The Patriots I feel like raised their floor,
but not their ceiling. I love Drake may I own
all the Drake maystock you could possibly own. They've had
one year where they've won more than eight games since
Tom Brady, and it feels like they're one year away
(12:20):
from getting there. I like what they did, it's about
like the infrastructure and the guts and the team, but
I still think they need a little bit more, you know,
weapons and help to put the ball in the end
zone for Drake may So, I think they're a year
away from being a playoff team. I mean, the Jets
are a disaster. Jets are an under five and a
half win team. And I love Justin Fields as a guy,
but he is not in a good situation to be successful,
(12:42):
despite any reports that he knew Garrett Wilson in college. Fine,
that's not enough for them to win six games this season,
and the Dolphins at seven and a half, the injuries
are already starting to pile up and to a I
mean when he played seventeen games, great, when he doesn't,
no one else can operate Mike McDaniel's offense.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
And talk to a Dolphins fan, they're like, the NFL
has figured out our offense. That's not good.
Speaker 4 (13:05):
If every Dolphins fans like, yeah, everyone knows what's coming
every single play, probably not a good recipe to win
eight or nine games. Let's go to the AFC South
as we go through all thirty two NFL over unders
this year. The Texans were five and one against the
AFC South last year and five and six against everyone else, won.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
In five against playoff teams.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes they had offensive line injuries, Yes they had wide
receiver injuries, but CJ. Stroud spent most of the season
on his back looking up at the domed ceiling, and
then they traded away Laramie Tunsel. I don't get that
one under nine and a half for the Texans. I
think the Colts are a good organization with a good coach,
and people seem to love Daniel Jones. Okay, fine, I
(13:47):
love Anthony Richardson's talent, but they've won eight or more
games in four of the last five years. The Colts
are good. The Colts are feisty. They maybe don't have
as high as a ceiling as some of these other teams,
but they've won eight or more games in four of
the last five years despite having eight different quarterbacks. It's
(14:08):
a good organization. Jaguars under seven and a half. I mean,
Liam Cohen, maybe I love Travis Hunter, but I got
to see it before I believe it. They've gone under
their win total in three of four years with Trevor
Lawrence as their starting quarterback. The Titans offense last year
was so historically bad that if cam Ward gives them anything,
(14:29):
I think they hit their over on five and a
half wins, fourth worst in the NFL, averaging one hundred
and eighty two passing yards the last three seasons. If
he gets them to like two twenty five, that's such
a massive improvement. I think they can eke out six wins.
So the division that people think is the best in
the NFL will wrap it up. In the AFC West,
(14:53):
the Chiefs aren't over team until prove it otherwise.
Speaker 3 (14:56):
It's a cliche, but they know how to win.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
But they improve their offensive line, they improve the health
of the receiver corps. They lost Joe Tooney, but they
seem to have upgraded at left tackle. Their defense is
top three in the NFL, twelve or more wins in
six of seven seasons with Patrick Mahomes as a starter.
Speaker 3 (15:13):
Andy Reid is an over machine.
Speaker 4 (15:15):
He hit his overs when he had Alex Smith as
this quarterback in Kansas City. They're a thirteen win team
until proven otherwise. You guys know, I can't quit Justin
Herbert and the Chargers, but number one scoring defense year
two of Harball, first round pick, running back, second round pick,
deep threat, wide receiver to help out Lad McConkie, an
(15:36):
absolute stud, arguably the best tackle duo in the NFL.
Harball goes eleven and six last year.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
This is an over for the Chargers.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
Broncos went five to five through ten games and then
they won five of their last seven. They are a
very good team. This is a very good division. Someone
has to go up under and I'm betting on there
being a little bit of a plateau for the Broncos
offense and we'll see. I mean Ingram Hufanga, GreenWave. They
(16:05):
made additions, but they also have some injury concerns. For me,
with some of the guys that they added, so I'm
not ready to say that they're a back to back
double digit win team, but the Raiders go over on
six and a half. No team in the NFL upgraded more.
At coach and quarterback Gino Smith is good. He's not great,
but he is accurate. He slings it, and he had
(16:28):
no offensive line. There are questions about the Raiders offensive line,
no doubt, but my point is he's used to it,
and now he gets a confident head coach, he gets
Ashton Gent, he.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Gets brock Bauers.
Speaker 4 (16:39):
That's going to be a fun team to watch and
a really difficult team to gain plan against. So I
think the Raiders are a pesky team in the AFC
this year. And that concludes thirty two NFL over unders.
It feels like what twenty nine and three, I guess
it's spread right there. I felt like twenty nine and
three a little shaky on maybe the Cardinals the Panthers,
(16:59):
But hey, if you go sixty five percent, I guess
the spread of the NFL last year, you gotta have
some confidence heading into the next year. So that's how
I see the NFL heading into the twenty twenty five
NFL season.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
How much longer. Are the Cowboys gonna wait to pay? Mic?
Speaker 4 (17:15):
We go around the NFL with who Mike Jones? Sorry
I had to Danny Parkinson for Colin.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
This is the hurt.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
One more heard. The Herd streams twenty four hours a day,
seven days a week within the iHeartRadio app. Search Herd
to listen live or on demand whenever you like.
Speaker 5 (17:32):
Hey, we're Cavino and Rich Fox Sports Radio every day
five to seven pm Eastern. But here's the thing, we
never have enough time to get to everything we want
to get to.
Speaker 6 (17:41):
And that's why we have a brand new podcast called
over Promised. You see, we're having so much fun in
our two hour show. We never get to everything, honestly,
because this guy is over promising things we never have
time for.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
Yeah, you blubber list name in me.
Speaker 5 (17:55):
Well you know what it's called over promise. You should
be good at it because you've been over promising women
for years.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
Well, it's a Covino and Rich after show, and we
want you to be a part of it. We're gonna
be talking sports, of course, but we're also going to
talk life and relationships and if Rich and I are
arguing about something or we didn't have enough time, it
will continue on our after show called over Promised.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Well, if you don't get enough Covino and Rich, make
sure you check out over Promised and also Uncensored by
the way, so maybe we'll go at it even a
little harder. It's gonna be the best after show podcast
of all time.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
There you go, over Promising and remember you could see
on YouTube, but definitely join us. Listen Over Promised with
Cavino and Rich on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or
wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
Welcome back in to the Herd. I'm Danny Parkins or
Colin Cowhard. Coming up in a little bit, we'll get
to a quarterback from last year who probably deserves a
little bit more hype heading into this year, but he's
a victim of circumstance. But right now, let's go around
the NFL our next guest covers the league for the
Athletic National NFL writer Mike Jones with us on the
(18:59):
Hurries cover the NFL for the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Mike, thank you so much for the time.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
I began today's show reacting to Jimmy Haslum's comments about
Arch Manning because he says he's probably going to stay
in college for two years. It's very rare that we
have a college prospects talked about as the number one
pick before he's really accomplished anything in college. I get it,
the last name on the Jersey Heisman Trophy favorite second
best team in the country. But I'm curious, how do
(19:26):
you think the league at this point views arch Manning
the NFL prospect.
Speaker 7 (19:31):
I mean, they've only seen a little flashes here and
there of him.
Speaker 8 (19:34):
You haven't seen him in a full time basis, So
I don't think that anybody's getting overly exciting. Obviously, there's
intrigue there because of the name and the athleticism and
ability that you see, but let's wait until we see him,
you know, as a full time starter, and you know,
then I think that we'll have a better idea. Obviously
people have been taking notes. They have the body of
(19:57):
work or that he's shown, even though it's limited, But
I haven't talked to any scouts or anybody that's like
overly excited about him this early.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
So a guy who people were overly excited about, and
I would say for good reason, was Travis Hunter. And
I think he's going to break the record for most
snaps played in a season as a rookie.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
If he distituted.
Speaker 4 (20:18):
What he did last year in college in the pros,
he would shatter it, and he did that in thirteen games.
The Jaguars seem to be like, very committed to playing
him both ways, but everyone on the outside is like,
are they really going to play him both ways? How
do you think this is going to go?
Speaker 8 (20:33):
You know, it's going to be a real interesting experiment
as we see them go out there, because look, you've
got to see what his effectiveness is going to be. Obviously,
in training camp and the practices, he probably looks good.
Speaker 7 (20:44):
You know, he's got good conditioning.
Speaker 8 (20:45):
We've seen him play multiple seasons this way, but the
NFL is just another level up the physicality, the speed
and everything. So I think there's going to be a
you know, maybe a snap count that they have on
him early on they try to figure out what he
can handle, how he's able to be effective, you know,
as a wide receiver, as a defensive back. I talked
(21:08):
to scouts who feel like he is an elite level
defensive back and probably a pretty decent wide receiver. Did
talk to one that thought he might be a better
receiver with his boss skills than a cornerback. But odd
he is really excited to see how they handle this
and what his ability to handle the workload and play
at an high level is going to be.
Speaker 4 (21:29):
Like my theory on it is we are all former athletes,
regular people like you and may media. We are behind
in understanding the full impacts of sports science and how
amazing the modern athletes are. The example I users like
back in the day, oh running back hits twenty seven,
(21:49):
they're falling off the cliff. Now we've got Derrick Henry
at thirty approaching two thousand yard seasons like it's nothing right.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
Athletes have just gotten better.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
We see in Green Bay they're working out Bowl Melton,
trying to maybe turn him into a two way player
because of some injuries that they had at corner. I
feel like if Travis Hunter works, it could open the
floodgates for these elite athletes and we could start seeing
more guys try to do it.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
Or do you think I'm insane?
Speaker 8 (22:13):
No, I don't think you're insane. I do think that
everybody's going to be watching. I think there are kids
in college and coaches in college who are going to
be watching and as you see more guys come out
and more guys able to execute at an elite level.
If there is a two way player, then sure there
will be a ripple effect throughout the NFL. And you're
definitely right, Like the science behind all of this has changed.
(22:36):
These guys have chips on their uniforms, in their pads
that they can look and see how many miles power
he's running in the first part of practice compared to
the last part of practice, in the first quarter of
a game as opposed to the fourth quarter of the game.
Speaker 7 (22:50):
So they're going to have all of the science.
Speaker 8 (22:52):
Even if he's saying I feel good, they'll be able
to tell if he's slowing down, if there's a drop
off or anything like that. And so all of that
science is going to go in to the decision on
how much of a workload they give him, and it's
just going to be fascinating.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Mike Jones from the Athletic is our guest. So Trey
Hendrickson reports to camp. Terry McLaurin reports the camp. They
don't have new contracts yet. My theory is basically, in
a post leveon bell World, it's an endangered species, like
the true holdout of missing games.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
So I know Chris.
Speaker 4 (23:23):
Jones did it, I know Jonathan Taylor did it, but
it's it's way less now than back in the day
because the money is just so insane. It's so hard
for these guys to really turn it down. So I
view offseason contract consternation as just media filler, like, oh,
Trey Hendrickson's upset with his contract. Yeah, it's July he's
supposed to be, or it was May he was supposed
to be.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
And I think that these are inevitable that they are
going to get done. What about you?
Speaker 7 (23:48):
I do think they get done.
Speaker 8 (23:50):
It's unfortunate for the players that in the last CBA
they negotiated and so the teams can find them fifty
thousand dollars a day, and.
Speaker 7 (23:57):
So that adds up.
Speaker 8 (23:58):
You hang out for three day and you're like, okay,
that's one hundred and fifty dollars fine, and then it
starts really getting a little painful and you decide to
come back, and we'll see more hold ends rather than
hold outs. You know, Yes, I think that eventually these
two sides are talking in Cincinnati, the two sides are
talking in Washington, they'll eventually get something done because obviously
(24:21):
the pressure is there for these coaches to win, they
need these marquee players, and so these owners will drag
their feet, drag their feet, but eventually everybody's gonna come
to the point and get it all done, and all
this would have been for nothing.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
What do you think about the reputation that Dallas is
stacking up now about how they handle their star players contracts.
Speaker 7 (24:44):
It's the cowboy way.
Speaker 8 (24:45):
It's Jerry Jones, and I think that he loves this
because what does he love is the Cowboys being on
the forefront of everybody's mind and talking about them. And
he press is good press for him. And so we've
seen him do it again and again and again, drag
his feet on paying a top level player, a guy
who has proven himself to be very valuable, and then
(25:08):
the last minute he finally winds up opening the checkbook,
even though it cost him tens of thousands and you know,
millions of dollars more, rather than have taken care of
the guy way earlier. And then every time somebody at
the position signs a new contract, the price tag goes up.
And so Micah Parsons is going to wind up surpassing TJ.
(25:30):
Watt as far as the highest paid pass rusher. It's
just a matter of time.
Speaker 4 (25:35):
Let me Devil's advocate that one. Though Michah Parsons should
make more money than TJ. Watt, he's younger, and Dak
Prescott had a no tag clause and a no trade clause.
So he wanted Jordan Love to sign first. He wanted
to sign for Ceedee Lamb, wanted to see what Justin
(25:55):
Jefferson would do to set the market. Micah Parsons wants
to wait for my Garrett and TJ.
Speaker 3 (26:01):
Watt. Like when you have truly elite Tier.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
One players at their position with leverage, the player probably
wants to wait too for the Cowboys to get these
deals done.
Speaker 8 (26:14):
I'm sure there's part of them that would just like
to get it out of the way. But at the
same time, I think that's probably part of the reason
why Michael Parson was like, hey, look, I'm coming to work.
Speaker 7 (26:22):
I owe this to my teammates.
Speaker 8 (26:23):
I want to be in the best position to be
able to help us win because he knows, hey, eventually
it's going to get done, and as like you said,
more guys in my position get paid my price, sat
keeps going up, and Jerry's going to wind up doing
what Jerry does and make me the highest paid player
in the league at my position. And so yes, it's
probably annoying having it hanging over, but they know eventually
(26:44):
it's all going to work out for them.
Speaker 4 (26:46):
Is there anything that could happen in Pittsburgh this year
where we would even say that forget hot seat, that
the seat was lukewarm for Mike Tomlin?
Speaker 7 (26:57):
I think so.
Speaker 8 (26:58):
I think this has really the touch would be disastrously bad,
you know. I mean this Aaron Rodgers that we see
right here is not the same guy that we're thinking
of from Green Bay. We did see him look a
little better down the stretch of the season with the
Jets last year. But if he and Arthur Smith don't
(27:19):
gel just right, if the offense isn't clicking, what does
Aaron Rodgers do when things aren't going well? He starts
pointing fingers. He'll pull back the curtain on the ineffectiveness
of the organization. People have said for a while that
as great a leader as Mike Tomlin is, he has
not evolved the practices of that organization and that coaching
(27:42):
staff and the way they do things. And so if
Aaron Rodgers, if things don't go well and there's finger
pointing and things like that that he is known for
as of late, then yeah, things will look bad and
go poorly. And you know, that seat for Mike Tomlin
could heat up because they basically just pushed all their
chips to the middle this year. Very on Pittsburgh Steelers
(28:03):
like offseason, and if it doesn't plan out well, then
you know then we could be asking questions.
Speaker 4 (28:09):
All right, I want to get your take on my guy,
Justin Herbert. The guy's the ultimate eye test quarterback. Four
interceptions even though a couple were off his guy's hands,
and his interior offensive line was collapsing around him. Still
bad playoff game AH and two in the playoffs. But
I am just convinced from watching the guy play football
that he's a star and he's going to do great things.
(28:30):
Where do you come out on eye test versus actual
results for the team For Justin Herbert.
Speaker 8 (28:36):
I agree with you that he is as talented as
they come. His ceiling is very high. My question is
everything around him. I do think that Harball was good
for him last year. I think another season with him
would be good for him. The questions are just, okay,
does he have enough as far as weapons around him?
Did they really improve the line significantly enough? You know,
(28:58):
they got Makai Beckton, but you know he was really
good last year with Philadelphia, which is an offensive line factory,
and they work together so well. Is he going to
be as effective in a new surroundings? You know, does
Justin Herbert have the wide receivers to go to enough weapons?
Because the thing is they're in this division with the Chiefs,
(29:18):
and until somebody proves they can knock off the Chiefs,
you know, I will take them every time. So, yes,
he's super talented. He gives you everything you could ask
for in a quarterback, but everything around him is the
big question.
Speaker 4 (29:33):
The guy who has everything around him is Jalen Hurts,
and Philly fans get mad at me because I say,
Jalen Hurts is a top ten quarterback who benefits tremendously
from having guys that are better at their jobs than
he is at his around him. He's clutch, he's a leader,
he's smart. But for example, like Saquon Barkley is a
(29:54):
better running back than Jalen Hurts as a quarterback AJ
Brown is a better receiver than Hurts as a quarterback. Lange,
Jordan Mailatta, Jalen Carter, et cetera. I don't see that
as a knock on Hurts. Anyone would benefit from being
in that situation.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
And then you add he's clutched.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
He's a gamer, he's a leader, he's smart, and that's
what leads you to bludgeoning teams on the way to
the Super Bowl. How do you evaluate Hurts individually amidst
the super team that's around him.
Speaker 7 (30:23):
I think he's super underrated.
Speaker 8 (30:25):
I mean, the dude just makes the plays that he
has to make when you need him the most. He's
got an accurate deep ball, he can extend plays. He's
a strong, powerful runner. He's got good instincts. He doesn't
force things. He just really basically is disciplined and says, Okay,
I'm gonna take what the defense gives to me. He
doesn't care what his stats look like if it means
(30:46):
that they're winning. And he's got the best mindset that
you could ask for in a quarterback.
Speaker 7 (30:50):
And so I don't get the.
Speaker 8 (30:54):
Lack of love for him because he just proved this
past year what he was able to do and he
just you know, he kept doing it again and again.
Speaker 7 (31:04):
Yes, he's got a lot to work with.
Speaker 8 (31:05):
He's got a great offensive line, great weapons, you know,
running back at receiver, great defense. But still he makes
the big plays when they need them the most. And
so I think that he is one of the top
of his position.
Speaker 4 (31:20):
One of the top, so the top, like behind the
Big four. You would put him right next right behind
Lamar Burrow, Allen Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
He's you said, you put him right there.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
I think he's got to be right there. Yeah, you
know after that that those guys. I mean, he's got
the Super Bowl ring, he's got the productions again, he's
got the.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
Well, well, hey, he was twenty second in the league
and pass attempt that he had less than twenty passing touchdowns,
the production.
Speaker 8 (31:47):
But that's not his fault. That they have Saquon Barkley.
I would hand it off to him too. But when
you ask him to put the ball in the air
and to make the plays, he makes the plays. So
I mean, who's whose fault is that that he's not
passing more? I mean he could pass more. You know,
Brown J. Brown's frustrated because they're not throwing more. But
they just know that, Hey, like you said, we've got
(32:09):
an elite running back, we've got an elite offensive line.
We believe in balance and it's working.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
So for first four games of last year, there were
two and two when he was throwing the ball thirty
two to thirty three times a game, and they're like,
we're gonna start running more.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
And again, he's really good.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
But they wont all the playoff games without throwing more
than twenty eight times in the game because they just
bludgeon people and then play from a lead.
Speaker 3 (32:28):
It's it's a super team and he benefits from it.
Speaker 4 (32:33):
And I feel like that's an okay thing to say
he runs their system perfectly.
Speaker 7 (32:37):
He does. And also I.
Speaker 8 (32:39):
Really am waiting for the year that we can see
him in a system consecutive years instead of changing offensive
coordinators every single year, because then I think we'll really
see him go to another level.
Speaker 7 (32:51):
Fortunately, they're often dated.
Speaker 8 (32:52):
This year has been there for a while, so hopefully
has a little more continuity. But again, the guy makes
the plays when you need him. He gets the job
I've done. I'm not complaining about him.
Speaker 4 (33:02):
Mike Jones covers the NFL for the Athletic. Thank you, sir,
all right, have a good one.
Speaker 7 (33:07):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 3 (33:08):
Absolutely it was our pleasure.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Thank you.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
That's Mike Jones covers the NFL for the Athletic. Now,
that's the craziest jail and hurts stat of.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
All of them.
Speaker 4 (33:14):
Going back to college, it's like nine offensive coordinators in
nine years. That is ridiculous. And again it's why I
always lead with unbelievably smart, unbelievable leader. But coming up next,
last year's quarterback class was historic, and frankly, I think
there's one guy who probably should be looking around and
be like, why am I not getting a little bit
more love? Tell you who it is next. Dany Parkinson
(33:35):
for Colin.
Speaker 3 (33:35):
On the Hurd.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays
and neon Eastern n a Empacific on Fox Sports Radio
FS one and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 4 (33:50):
Back in on the Herd, I'm Danny parkins in for
Colin Cowhard insane expectations for arch Manning in his first
year as a starter. We'll get to it coming up
at the top of the hour and next hour. Eric
Mangini going to join the show as well. So last
year's quarterback class in the NFL was special. I mean,
(34:15):
six quarterbacks get taken in the first round. There's obviously
a lot of very very high end talent at that spot,
and part of this is just how the media works.
But Caleb Williams had all the hype USC celebrity quarterback,
number one pick, former Heisman Trophy winner goes to a
(34:37):
big market team that's quarterback starved in Chicago. That's going
to be a massive story. Then Jaden Daniels number two pick,
NFC Championship, Drake may third pick, all right, looks interesting
but has nothing around him. We'll get to that in
a minute. JJ McCarthy gets hurt. Okay, fine, we'll punt
(34:59):
on that. But it's Michigan, it's Kevin O'Connell, justin Jefferson.
They end up winning fourteen games, fascinating.
Speaker 3 (35:04):
We'll get to that. And then there was bow Knicks.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
And I know Michael Pennix too, but we'll get to
Penis in a second.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Bow Knicks.
Speaker 4 (35:15):
If it was not for Jade and Daniels would be
able to say, hey, guys, where's my hype, where's my love?
Because he had more passing yards and more touchdowns passing
than Jade and Daniels did. If I just told you
bow Knicks's resume second most passing touchdowns ever for a
(35:41):
rookie quarterback, and he went to the playoffs and he
had Sean Payton, he'd be We'd be talking a ton
about this guy. I hate the NFL Top one hundred list.
I think the players don't apply any consistency to it.
They really only rate it seems like last year, instead
of a body of work to truly and fairly evaluate
(36:02):
a player. I think it's mostly a useless exercise, but
it does sometimes lead to interesting quotes or sound bites.
Bo Knicks came in ranked sixty fourth among his peers
after his rookie year.
Speaker 3 (36:12):
Here's how he responded.
Speaker 9 (36:14):
I think it's it's obviously a cool honor for you know,
because that's your peers thing, that's you know guys, guys
you play. But at the same time, you know, just
the way I think, the way I am motivated, I
want to continue to, uh, you know, get higher, and
not even for the the ranking. You know, it doesn't
(36:36):
really matter what you're ranked. It's just you know, an
internal standard that I have that I want to be
the best in the world, And I know there's a
lot of guys that I'm competing for that with, and
you know I'm not going to stop at least give
it my best.
Speaker 4 (36:46):
Try so cliches. Notwithstanding he's on his way. Do I
think he's gonna be the best in the world. No,
But I'll tell you this, if you watched Theos the
first three and a half four games of last season,
it was like, Yo, does bonis belong in the league?
Speaker 3 (37:09):
What is going on here?
Speaker 4 (37:12):
And then by the end of the season, they've won
double digit games, They're in the playoffs. He had twenty
nine passing touchdowns and some of his highlights were absolutely insane,
like justin Herbert is dining out in a lot of
people's mind off that thirty one touchdown pass rookie season
that he had.
Speaker 3 (37:32):
Bon Nicks had twenty nine.
Speaker 4 (37:35):
And was in the playoffs and acquitted himself well. And
Sean Payton obviously believed in a Maaton. There have been
the Drew Brees comparisons. I think that's more coach than style,
but there are a few similarities that you can see
in terms of just pocket passer that sort of thing.
But it's a it's a quarterback class that I find
(37:55):
fascinating because we can reverse order it.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
We talked about bo Nicks.
Speaker 4 (38:01):
The Broncos are obviously thrilled with what they got out
of bo Nicks, absolutely through thirty seven hundred passing yards,
three to one touchdown, the interception ratio. Just I guess
a little worse than three three to one, two and
a half to one touchdown the interception ratio, and a
playoff appearance. The Falcons in three games with Michael Pennix,
(38:22):
felt like he unlocked their offense in terms of Bijon
Robinson and Drake London and putting the ball in the
end zone. And he's also just fun to watch a
lefty with a rocket arm. It's it's unconventional, but it
think about the vote of confidence that Atlanta has shown
(38:43):
in Penix. They gave Kirk Cousins one hundred million guaranteed,
one hundred and eighty million dollars and off three games
they're like, Yep, Penix is our guy.
Speaker 3 (38:51):
That's pretty significant.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
So Bijon, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Okay, now you got
Michael Pennox. Let's see what the Falcon can do. Falcons
happy with their guy, Broncos happy with their guy, JJ McCarthy.
Kevin O'Connell believes in him enough that he traded up
one spot to get him. Sam Darnald won fourteen games
last season through for what forty five hundred yards, was
(39:17):
good enough to get one hundred million dollars, and the
Vikings were like, yeah, we're good. We're turning it over
to the guy coming off the injury, who didn't throw
it a ton in college, who won national championship. But
how much of it was the system around him, how
much of it was him? We're going to turn it
over to JJ McCarthy. That's a massive vote of confidence
for a guy who has thrown pre season passes in
(39:41):
his NFL career to move on from Sam Darnald. And
by the way, I supported the move. The point of
this exercise is it is very rare that you can have.
First of all, it's rare to have six quarterbacks taken
in a first round, but it's very rare that you
go through a full season of the NFL and every
team is still.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Happy about the guy they drafted.
Speaker 4 (40:03):
Atlanta happy about Pennix, Denver happy about bo Nicks, Minnesota
clearly happy, happy about jj McCarthy, They moved on from
Sam Darnold in New England. Drake May had the worst
offensive line in football.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
They fired a coach and basically.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
No one listening right now can name a single pass
catcher on the team. And the guy was standing at
the end of the year, made awesome throws, carried himself
like a pro, got better as the year went on,
displayed some serious toughness, and now all of a sudden,
upgraded coach a couple hundred million bucks in free agent contracts. Later,
(40:46):
you add Stefan Diggs, you give him Josh McDaniels. You
kind of have the organization catch up to the talent
of the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
All of a sudden, the Patriots.
Speaker 4 (40:55):
When people start making official predictions, my guess is half
the media thinks they're going to the playoffs this year.
Vegas has them as an eight or a nine win team.
That's a tremendous vote of confidence for a guy who
threw fifteen touchdowns last year. Then Jade and Daniels, no
one needs to say anything about third down, fourth down,
one score games, playoff games, NFC Championship game. It's probably
(41:17):
the most impressive when you combine stats and winning. I
would argue it's the most impressive rookie season we've ever
had because what they were actually asking him to do.
And then Caleb the number one pick, the team that
did not even bring in Jade and Daniels did not
even bring in Drake May. He's the guy that everyone
has the most questions about. It's a wild quarterback draw.
(41:40):
Just think back to that Trevor Lawrence draft. After year one,
it was like, okay, well we got massive questions about
Justin Fields.
Speaker 3 (41:46):
We got massive questions about Trey Lance. There are some
questions about Mac Jones.
Speaker 4 (41:51):
Trevor Lawrence still hasn't answered it all these years later,
and Zach Wilson wears he So it's really rare to
have that many quarterbacks. And if we did it all again,
obviously everyone would want Jayden Daniels, But other than that,
everyone's thrilled with who they got.
Speaker 3 (42:08):
And then there's poor Boonix with twenty nine.
Speaker 4 (42:10):
Touchdowns in a playoff appearance, being like no one ever
talks about me. It really was one of the great
rookie seasons that we've seen, and we'll see how we
builds on it coming up for this year. What do
the Browns say about arsh Manning. Are they already throwing
cold water on it? That's coming up next, Danny Parker's
in for Colin to hurt
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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