Episode Transcript
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The volume. It's money Line Monaco presented by FanDuel. The
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four seven o O Yoming or visit www dot one
hundred gambler dot net, West Virginia. There is nothing like
(02:08):
betting the tournament on a March Madness Thursday and going
so ballistic and the live betting paint. Yeah, I have
to cancel your Manhattan dates for the weekend. Welcome back
to another episode of Sports Gambling with money Line Monico.
I'm your host, Alex Monico. We are live on Amazon Amp,
the Volume Sports YouTube channel. Wherever you get your podcast,
(02:32):
Please subscribe. Rate review goes a long way. We are
sleeves rolled up in the trenches. Whenever this hits your ear,
drums amidst the first round, in the second in the
tourney whose bracket was not busted Ferman Princeton sick, diabolical.
(02:52):
This was like Frank to taking old school throwback Thursday
on a Friday, hitting you on a Saturday saying I'm
not going to have one. I'm not gonna lie bet,
I'm not gonna do it. And then next thing you know,
I'm grabbing the mic from Snoop and I'm telling everyone
to join me on a live betting spring. Look, the
(03:16):
March Madness Tournament is savagery. Princeton, a team that probably
reads for pleasure more than hits the gym, just beat
the Pac twelve champions. A guy who had a ring
under his belt for Virginia threw a pick six with
a time out in the corner. I had to remind
myself I'm betting on kids, so I didn't take my
(03:40):
phone and huck it out to Scottie van badbeat window
when I bet Virginia live. This is the tournament. But
look I've sat here, I've told you UCLA to the
final four, Duke on a long shot to the final four.
We are still intact. I got a couple of picks
for you in a bit on the pod for Saturday Day.
(04:01):
Of course, though we have to talk out a little
Aaron Rodgers, just rehash where we're at with it briefly
grays over the NBA MVP, and this, of course will
lead us to my four picks at the end of
the episode for Saturday's March Madness Action, I'll remind you
who I'm on in the final four. Again, objects and
(04:23):
mirror are never as they appear in this tournament. You
have to adjust now your brackets are locked, but as
a daily better which is which is what I am.
I'm gonna try to explain the painting that I'm looking
at through just a day or around of college basketball.
But let's get in to Aaron Rodgers, who again fascinating.
(04:44):
I talked about this yesterday, so I'm just gonna hash
over I'm waiting to bet on Jet's futures. The value
is gone. It's not gonna dip more than it dipped
on FanDuel our shop here as it already has moved.
The value is gone. What I mean is the Jets
(05:04):
or seven fifty to win the AFC. They were fifteen
to one. Ten days ago. They were twenty five to
one to win the Super Bowl. They're now down to fifth.
Excuse me, they are now down all the way. Let
me triple check my stigmatism. Yeah, to fifteen to one.
The Jets are only behind the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Bengals, Niners,
(05:26):
and Cowboys to win it all. The Jets haven't made
the playoffs since Facebook was still being used by everybody
not named over forty. The Jets haven't won a division
since my Space top eight. The Jets haven't won a
(05:49):
Super Bowl since I was negative thirty years old. I digress.
You have to wait because there is no more value
you have. Mahomes Burrow, Tim the Two Man, Alan Justin Effortless,
Herbert so Callock's Flow, and Lamar Jackson in the Guy
in Cleveland, and Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. It's a joke.
(06:14):
So again, I study nonverbal body language like a mensch
over here, all right, what are people saying that they're
not saying when people are showing showing you who they are.
Believe him, Aaron Rodgers, I've said this, Colin said this.
He doesn't have a wife, he doesn't have an owner.
(06:35):
At the moment, he's loaded. The guy's golfing, swinging day
in hobnobbing. No one tells him anything now, I jokingly said,
but I'm half serious. He looked exhausted after coming out
of the dark for four sleeps. He looked debilitated. But
what he said the McAfee was I'm eighty to ninety
(06:56):
percent retired. That's the mindset going in to the darkness.
Shout out Evan essence l L. Then he comes out,
he finds out Green Bay doesn't want him. All of
a sudden, he wants to play football again. To give
(07:17):
you a Cowherd analogy, you're in a relationship, you don't
want to be in it anymore, you want to be single. Well,
guess what you go to make that call, that conversation
with your significant other. They tell you they don't want you.
Shout out Vince Vaughn wedding crashers at my interested. I'm
not that interesttion sho. I play the conventionship, but I'm
not that interested. But she's not, so all of a sudden,
(07:37):
I'm starting to get interested. So here here, here, she
is hypothetically speaking the packers telling you, nah, sorry, we
don't want you. We don't want you. Oh you don't
want me. Well, I'm still desirable. I'm George Clooney. I'm
aging Benjamin Button backwards. I'm gonna go find another suitor.
I didn't even want to be married again. I'm doing
(07:58):
it again, and I'm doing it New York with it,
Broadway with it, bigger, badder than you ever could a
small town dream baby. That's Aaron Rodgers. So, Aaron Rodgers
is coming to the mecha. I host a television show
(08:18):
in New York on MSG called a Better half Hour.
How you're doing? I am in the New York media.
This is the Lions Dead and we're not talking Ford Field.
Aaron Rodgers coming here is going to be better than
daytime soap opera television before Netflix was invented. This is
(08:39):
going to be riveting. But from a betting angle, he
doesn't even really want to be here. His ego wants
to be here. A man who hasn't won in a
decade is telling you he has nothing to prove. Yet,
as soon as the fragilenus with income which is exposed
the Packers telling them they don't want on him, he
(09:01):
doubles down on I need to prove everything. That ain't
something I want to back. Financially, I don't trust it.
I'm not ready for it. And again I'm in New York.
I'll wrap my arms around it. When it'll happen, I'm
gonna wait, said this metaphor yesterday. Go to the gym
when no one goes, go to the grocery store when
no one goes. Well, the Packers have dropped the twenty
eight to one to win the Super Bowl. They were
(09:23):
in the Jets position ten days ago because they had
Aaron Rodgers. Last time I check, he's still on the roster.
He doesn't really want to leave. Now he's forcing himself
out with the talking and the narrative. And now he
has said a fascinating word. I intend to play for
the New York Jets. Okay, well, I intend to intermitten
(09:48):
fast and then ninety five Eastern hits, and like Seinfeld says,
the cookies don't pop out in the kitchen in the
morning when you're abundant and full event energy. They pop
out when they're when you're weak and you're tired. This
could be a catastrophe, or it could be Broadway Joe
(10:09):
round two. All I know is anyone listening. Wait, it's March.
It's March, and he's bored. All right. This NBA MVPETE
talk is getting rivety. Now we look at these awards
and again they're not up at the moment, unfortunately on fandels,
(10:31):
so we can't go into the odds. But is starting
to swing a little and as the Joker gets ready
to take on Gotham Nick's Nuggets over the weekend, it's
going to be fascinating because the Nuggets have not faced
a four game losing streak all season, and they headed
into Detroit losing four straight. They're under five hundred on
the road. But the point is that the value for
(10:52):
Yokets could potentially pop back up now they were I
believe it was twenty five wins on triple doubles for
Yoket Shout out ice Cube to know losses when he
dropped that for this team, they lost two in a
row when he dropped triple doubles. Joel is playing out
of his gourd, and all of a sudden, we have
a race for the NBA MVP again. I will tell
(11:12):
you sit back for a second and realize that Yo Kitch,
in my humble opinion, is still gonna win this award.
Joel embat It's like, I don't know how to explain it,
but he cannot win this award, and it keeps poking
(11:33):
them and poking them because Philly fans want it for him,
but they really want a deep playoff run and they
actually have that opportunity in front of them in Philly.
I think they're playing excellent basketball, but this MVP talk
is distracting in my opinion, and you're taking the most
out of Joel when you can't even really climb up
(11:55):
the standings. Go look at the futures for the one seed.
It's a lock. Philly ain't getting home core, so you
should be going into Kawhi load management mode if you're
really preparing for the playoffs and they are exhausting Joe
LMB I still lean Yokich. We'll table this. I'll go
into it more on a deep dive at another episode,
(12:15):
but park it realize the market changes a little bit
based off of sports radio narrative, and right now people
are hammering and b to win this when in all actuality,
two three weeks ago, at least according to the juice
at the sports book, this was a rap. It's still
yokis just to lose in my humble opinion. As we
(12:36):
get in, so what I'm sure you're here for baby,
some actionab bull bets. I got four of them for you.
We start out as a so cal San Diego kid
in the Turney Saturday. Hi, how are you stsu verse Furman?
Who had it in their bracket? I had one of them,
(12:57):
San Diego kid, big mozzle to to Dutcher, getting the
monkey off his back. He finally wins the predecessor for
Steve Fisher in the San Diego State longtime assistant coach program.
He wins his first game in March. He also ends
a three year shriek of windless Mountain West basketball in
(13:20):
the tournament, and again a lot of people really thought,
just saying what I gotta say here that this Charleston team,
who if you did your research never played anyone in
the top one hundred. Ken Palm was gonna come in
and upset San Diego State, and I'm here to tell
you that San Diego State there ma and again I've
(13:41):
talked about it on the show all week. It's how
I'm making my picks because I do not sit here
and study college basketball like I do the six other
sports that I watch. I need you to know who
you're listening to. But I did go four and one
against the spread on my picks day one, and my
bracket is still very much alive. Check how Volume Sport.
It's Merch Madness Tournament. By the way, Merch Madness going
(14:03):
along all month on the Volume Sports Channel. Your chance
to compete against us and win merch from Volume. But
what do you look for, as I say, in this tournament,
if you're not watching every game all the time, you
got to look for upper classmen that have gelled together
for a couple of years on these teams. You look
(14:24):
for coaches and their tournament acumen. Do they have a
history of winning. Tom is a great example of a
guy that can take a mediocre team in March and
make a run. Looking at the idea of who's playing
their best basketball, which is a normal thing. We've seen
(14:45):
the sixth seed when there were six seeds in not
seven in the NFL playoffs win multiple times Aaron Rodgers Packers,
believe it or not, Eli Manning's Giants, it happens. So
you look at this matchup Furman and again, if you
realize is that Furmant in Virginia was these kids played
each other growing up. This was everything for Furman in
(15:05):
that game, it was that was their super Bowl. Now
again they're hungry for more. People are calling them a Cinderella.
No they're not. They're getting bounced by San Diego State
on a Saturday morning by a team that plays excellent
team defense, phenomenal on the glass, has veteran prowess and
(15:28):
presence led by our guy Matt Bradley. As I get
into it more, and you're going against a team in
Fermint that, I gotta be honest, is happy to be here.
Furman is here from one of the worst plays I've
ever seen. I don't think an eight year old who
doesn't even know how to play matted would have made
(15:50):
that bad of a decision that Clark did in the
corner with a timeout and hey, Virginia up one throws
a pick six in a game winning three for Furmant.
They're not supposed to be here. They won their Super Bowl.
San Diego State has played nine consecutive under games. It's
because of their tenacious defense. It is a veteran team. Again,
(16:14):
Matt Bradley's a seventeen points a game, guy south Pass
Savage seventeen points a game with a very supportive cast.
I mean, look between Trammell Johnson and where Dutcher really
(16:39):
earns his keep, which is what college basketball is all about.
Accountability on defense, excellent switching. You'll watch San Diego State
make some unbelievable switches on defense, and they crashed the
boards in a way where you got several guys giving
you five, six, seven boards. They almost had a double
double up the bench in game one. And if you
watch the Charleston game against San Diego State, did cover
(17:01):
and I'm telling you to lay five and a half year.
They covered and it was down to point seven and
two free throws. It was a six Scottie Van badbeat.
But to me, this game comes down to exactly what
San Diego States m is and really let that sink
into your gambling coffee. This team makes you go off
(17:26):
your game, and Furman is actually a very good, high
powered offense. They average eighty two on the year, but
guess what, they've had seventy three or fewer in four
of their last eight. They aren't playing and firing on
all cylinders. Eleven out of the last ten and nine
straight for San Diego State has hit the under. They
(17:48):
had a tougher matchup, you could argue in the first
round they were preparing for Virginia that game was gonna
end one nothing baseball style. Now they're going against a
high our juggernaut who's off a Super Bowl. Yeah. I
like the better team, the older team, the veteran team,
and the better defense San Diego State. To kick off
(18:11):
the program, we'll see a Furman cute story. Let's move
into the big dogs. Kansas dances and again I do
not have Kansas repeating. Only six teams ever have repeated
forty point five percent of one seeds in the history
of this tournament, inc a Final four birth. We are
(18:33):
staring at this team, Kansas, and I'm telling you right
now they're not repeating. And the line for tomorrow, which
is today when it hits. Your ears is minus three
and a half in one seventy against Arkansas, and again
Arkansas is pesky. Arkansas unnihilated Illinois. I mean, that was
(18:56):
an embarrassing performance of the fighting a linee. But you
look at the Jayhawks and they are balanced. And Jaylen
Wilson's going to the league. He's a steady twenty points
a game guy. Dewan Harris him and him in Jayleen Wilson,
the two guys, the two key guys returning from last
year's championship team leading this club, and Dewan Harris is
(19:21):
more like an eight and ten point six to six
to eight assist guy. But looking at with Grady Dick,
the rookie sensation, did the freshman rather who hits about
two point three three's a game what he did go
in nineteen and eleven and again Howard was competitive in
the first half, can just blew him out in the second.
(19:42):
If Wilson's gonna give you twenty and seven and Grady
Dick's gonna give you nineteen and eleven, kJ Adams is
gonna give you thirteen, McCuller Junior is gonna give you ten,
seven and five and Dewan Harris is gonna meddle the ship.
This is a tough team to beat. Now, I got
UCLA coming out of this bottom right owner, a pissed
off McK cronin with my guy him and Tiger Campbell. Yeah,
(20:04):
I love the Bruins. I expect a UCLA Kansas matchup
for the ages. I expect Kansas to get past Arkansas. Now,
Arkansas only knocks down five three pointers a game. That's
three hundred and fiftieth in college basketball. That's not great.
(20:27):
A Kansas team that can score with anyone, a well
balanced club, a team that rebounds. Jalen Wilson averages eight
point four boards per game, and I'm telling you, Grady
Dick's giving you a double double on most nights with
McCuller being an excellent rebounder. This is just too short
of a line. And I think again, bookmakers have a lot,
(20:51):
they have a full plate, they have a lot on
their hands. A three and a half point line against Arkansas.
I think this line should be closer to five to
five and a half. This could be a four point win.
This could be seventy three seventy We lose by the
Dustin Hoffman hook. It's sick, but again, a very good
free throw shooting team, a team that does everything better
(21:13):
offensively than they do defensively per one hundred possessions per pace,
per three's made field goal percentage versus against rebounding. The
list goes on. Kansas is actually very fundamentally sound. But
when they get it going like they did in that
second half, I mean that live line hovered in the
I nabbed Kansas minus fifteen and a half. They covered,
(21:35):
They covered the original line so this team could turn
it on quit And I just think Arkansas is is
getting a number that's a little small, so in a
close game that could go either way. I like Kansas
to do the little things fundamentally similar to the San
Diego State kind of thinking. And they covered the three
(21:57):
and a half. We got the Jayhawks. Baby, all right.
I love this next one, and I'm on a Duke
Ucla to both make the Final four. On a FanDuel parlay,
put down one hundred and retire. Now it's twenty five
to win eight hundred bucks, but it is a gorgeous
ticket and you can still get in on it. Duke
is going to beat Tennessee and the lines moving. I
(22:19):
got it at two and a half. It's at three.
I've seen it up the three and a half. You
don't love the two and a half, which I'm laying
take Duke on the money line at minus one fifty six.
I am loving them to roll Tennessee. And Rick Barnes,
if you know this recent memory and this is different
seating wise, he didn't play very well against higher seats. Now,
(22:42):
ironically they're four Tennessee and Duke is five, not the
same six. No double digit upset here, but it happens
and Tennessee I don't really trust that much. Now, I
don't watch a ton of volunteer basketball, but I'll tell
you I've watched a lot of John Shire's Duke basketball.
Called that oh, by the way, is not lost in
(23:02):
over a month. And it goes back to what I
said at the top. Does this team have a history
in the tournament and are they playing good basketball? And
where's their head coach? Well, of course we are not
quenching our thirst on all three of those boxes. Shires
first year is this is coach k turnover year. But
what I'm seeing in that twenty three point victory against
(23:26):
or Robbers and a forty to twenty three on slot
in the first half, easily covering the first half spread
is if Roach can give you twenty three and Philippalski,
who's a fifteen and nine guy who gave you six
and nine in a round one, can give you what
they are capable of, which is again Philippalski around fifteen
(23:47):
with a double Roach giving your rate around twenty. With
the support of Procter of Mitchell, white Head off the
bench has been e normous five of seven with double
dig again the first round. This team has the pieces
to make a run, and everyone's loving the Marquette angle
in this corner. I think Duke's coming out of nowhere.
(24:10):
And I don't mean nowhere because it's Duke, but everyone's
writing them off, putting them in a Kentucky North Carolina bracket. Yo,
this team hasn't lost the No Bud. You cannot say
that about many clubs in this tournament. They're twenty third
in free throw percentage. They're top sixty five in points
(24:30):
per game in the country. Tennessee's one hundred and eighteen.
I mean Tennessee lost to an m They lost a
vanderbil who isn't in the tournament. They lost to Florida,
who isn't in the tournament. They come in ending the
regular season two and two in their last four, the
scrape and buy in the sec ship game by game,
I don't love it. I gotta be honest, I don't
(24:52):
love it. It is a small, easily coverable line for
how well Duke is playing, and again, to shoot just
under fifty percent it's team in college is impressive. But
I do think this game comes down to again, who
is the hotter team that is playing better as a unit,
(25:14):
And Duke is not relying on one guy. They are
relying on roads to take control. But this is starting
to be a little bit of a scary Duke team.
And if this is it in your ears and you
watch them roll Tennessee, I need you to seriously flirt
with the Duke futures. Now. I don't think they're winning
(25:34):
it at all, but I think a historic franchise like
this kind of playing pressure free could be a lethal combo.
So I'm on Duke minus two and a half over Tennessee.
And we wrapped the show with Auburn plus five and
a half. Auburn plus five and a half, and I'm
getting it, and it might move over the Houston Cougars
(25:58):
the one seed, and this is solely a climbing purchase.
Wasn't expecting to make this play, but Auburn looked unbelievably
balanced against Iowa, who goes home again for the second
straight year in the first round. In embarrassing performance for
the hot gys I digress Marcus Sasser got hurt, the
(26:21):
senior leading the team in points, the captain, the guy
that was on the Houston Coogar's Final four team with
Sampson left the game in the middle of the game
against Northern Kentucky, and I tweeted this, go look at
Alex Alex Monica on Twitter. I'm hammer in Northern Kentucky
plus twelve and a half at halftime. Guson ain't running
(26:44):
away with this game, so I'm taking a number at
five and a half for two reasons. One Green Jaylen Williams,
Alan Flanagan, Johnson, Donaldson, the transfer kid, Broom, all these dude.
I mean Auburn had six men in double figures against
Iowa and led the whole game and controlled the whole game.
(27:08):
Bruce Pearl is a nice, nice, subtle, well coached people
person player friendly leader of men to back in this spot.
This could be a good old fashioned battle down to
the last possession type game. We're getting five and a half.
(27:29):
You have to take it. Sasser might not play you
hear this early enough, we might get CV closing line
value on this game. Auburn is too balanced, playing too
well right now. And again was a team a couple
of years back that had national Championship chip expectations, so
(27:51):
they're not afraid of the big moment. They play sec basketball.
They've played the bamas of this season, and I don't
love what I saw with Houston and again Houston, she'd
is more like a ten twelve game. A guy he
had thirteen, Walker had sixteen he averages eleven, Roberts had
(28:15):
eleven sharphead ten off the bench. They had to do
a lot they're not used to do, at least up
ticking it a bit for Houston. Again, was thirty to
twenty seven in the first half. People one sixteen matchup.
You don't think Auburn's covering, dude, We saw Princeton and
(28:36):
Furman went out right five and a half. I wouldn't
be surprised if Auburn bounces Houston. I'm not even kidding,
So we wrap up to reiterate the picks. We're waiting.
We're going into the dark, pulling and Aaron Rodgers and
meditating on the jets futures. We're on Yokich, but we're
(28:57):
waiting a little bit, and we are on San Diego
State minus five and a half over Fermant We are
in Kansas minus three and a half to cover and
win over Arkansas. We are on Duke minus two and
a half over the Tennessee Volunteers, and we are on
Auburn plus five and a half over Houston. Hate to
(29:19):
take three favorites, but too much of short line action.
I have to thank you for watching, Appreciate you, subscribe,
rate review, Don't forget to hug your mothers. Enjoy the
rest of your weekend, and if you're having some fun
making some bets want to want to collaborate. Wanna hit
me up. I'm around Baby Alex Monica, money Line, Monica
(29:39):
across all things social. Don't forget, just hug your mothers.
We'll see you next week. This March. Take your first
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(30:01):
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five verse twelve seed matchup. You've been eying favorite bets
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I do love Alabama to the final four as well.
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