NFL Best Bets Divisional Round

The final NFL weekend of multi-day action has arrived, with two spine-tingling games set for both Saturday and Sunday. Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are here to break each game down, and hand out their final picks, including their Big Balls Bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John. They dive into a round of Sharp Calls from professional bettors, they size up the chances of a Washington upset over Detroit, and they get down and dirty handicapping a freezing cold Orchard Park Sunday evening affair. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three sixty five. We are a part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I'm Chadmulman of the Action Network. I'm live
from my Tommy John Holmes Studio and them I'm joined
and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike Campadre my BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter l.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
O Simon Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:32):
Optimistic? Confidence, clear eyed? My heart is full. We cannot
lose my brother. We can't not lose.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
That's how I feel. How do you feel?

Speaker 3 (00:45):
It's my favorite time of year. It's like you got
one foot into you know, the best football of the year,
and the other foot is off season mode already, all
the drama, all the conversation, and I just love this
time of here where it's like even if you're a
team's a loser and you're out, there's still drama, still
something to care about with your team because there's all
the coaching change everything like that. And on the flip side,
we talked about this is the best weekend of football,

(01:07):
right this is our last weekend of at least four
games on Saturday. We got two on Saturday, two Sunday,
and I try to enjoy it because I know, and
you know, it's almost over. Baby, This is done. What's
the end? So try to enjoy it.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
It's my last weekend of telling my wife I have
to work on Saturday night, so I know I cannot
go out to dinner with XYZ couple because I have
to work on Saturday night. Today is our NFL Divisional
Best Bets episode, as we did last week, will not

(01:39):
only be we will not only be reviewing the sides
for this weekend's games. We are adding any other bets
we like as well that will hopefully give folks more
to look for root forward think about this weekend.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
We will also be including those bets.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
As options for our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
Balls Bet of the Week.

Speaker 1 (02:01):
We will of course discuss Simon's Biggest Bets, play Scoot Roulette,
all that Jazz Sunday night. We normally do our shows
on Sunday night around seven thirty. Because the Bills Ravens
game starts at six point thirty, we are gonna go
live after that game.

Speaker 2 (02:21):
It's gonna be a late night for me.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
I'm gonna need to have a an afternoon espresso to
be able to do that show. We're gonna go after
the Ravens and the Bills game finishes, and that should
be great because we're gonna have a lot of stuff
tied to that game, as you're about to find out. Plus,
you know, Matt Mitchell lives and dies with the Buffalo Bills,
so it could be super exciting to have to make

(02:44):
him record a podcast one way or the other.

Speaker 3 (02:48):
This sucks and it's horseshit, but I'm too polite to
say anything because I'm a class act.

Speaker 1 (02:53):
Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decisions need to
be made. As a volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard like
to say, there's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to
be generationally wealthy.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Futures, and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
At bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
In Iowa terms.

Speaker 1 (03:47):
Conditions restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays during
the season, we like to hear how the wise guys
are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are very influential.
Lines move based in our conversation. Feel compelled to check
in and tell us what they're thinking.

Speaker 2 (04:04):
Simon, let's do. Chuck calls.

Speaker 3 (04:10):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range, somebody
saying maybe.

Speaker 1 (04:17):
What you do?

Speaker 3 (04:18):
Man? Yeah? Pretty interesting week, obvious because it's only four games,
so there's gonna be a lot of you know, back
and forth on guys where they're on different sides, and
obviously the most contagious, you know, argumentative back and forth game.
Ravens bills, So there's no doubt. Got a ton of
pushback on that one.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
You know, you push back on you liking the bills.

Speaker 3 (04:42):
Yeah, guys are just like us where they dive in
the numbers and they see that basically when you boil
it down to it, every trend, just about every number
on the field is going to back this Ravens team
for a good reason. Like we already talked about, We're
gonna talk about some more. You know, that was definitely
in the main call I got about you think they
think I'm doing too much emotion here, not going with

(05:05):
the numbers, not trust the numbers, And yeah, that's something
again we'll talk about. I don't want to give too
much away, but yeah, I just thought that was interesting
that I thought that was gonna be a more public side.
They're Ravens, but there are some really smart professional money
on that side. But you saw there's just as much
smart money on the bills side keeping this number where
it's at right, Like a couple offshore books touched two,

(05:28):
immediately took heavy money, went right back down to one
and a half. And we've seen here, I don't know
if you've seen in Connecticut, in New Jersey. No book
has touched two on the bills. Every book has been
one and a.

Speaker 1 (05:38):
Half in fact, and let's let's let's save that because
it's that is the end of the show.

Speaker 2 (05:45):
It's the marquee game.

Speaker 1 (05:47):
It's at one at most books, so it's come down
from the one and a half, like the money is
coming back on the bills.

Speaker 2 (05:53):
So that is outstanding.

Speaker 3 (05:57):
Well, I just thought it was interesting conversation with guys,
just because I did think it would be a pros
versus jows type of game. And it's like, no, this
Ravens team, and you do dive into the numbers, you
do look at the matchup. There are guys who are
just like, no, I'm trusting the trends here, trusting Lamar
in this night game. But yeah, I can't wait to
break that one down even more a game. And you

(06:17):
love we already knew the professionals on either side of it.
This Detroit.

Speaker 2 (06:21):
Oh.

Speaker 3 (06:21):
I don't know if Chad loves it, but I love
Commanders Detroit Lions. This is another professional side. A lot
of the pros love the Lions, but there's a decent
amount of us that are crazy, crazy crazy about this
Washington team and throwing money on the Washington money line.
I think they're gonna pull off the upset. I just
I can't get over how they match up with this
team and the fact that, yes, the Lions are gonna

(06:42):
be able to maybe make them one sided take away
the run option. That's what I honestly want. I want
Jennie Daniels to have the ball in his hands at
all times. I just think this is the type of
game that we could finally see him break off fifty
to sixty runs in this game where it's gonna be
him picking up a ton of yards with his own legs.
So that was another game that was really interesting to
me that, you know, I couldn't believe there's pros out

(07:04):
there still taking the nine and a half on this
Lions team. And it is just they love this team,
They respect this offense, and they think which most people,
I think professionally think that the injuries to this defense
has been overrated a little bit. I just think they've
been lucky with their competition. Now they're about to face
a legit offense, and we've seen when they played legit
offenses they move the ball against them and then defense,

(07:25):
So that's another one obviously that's split. I don't know
where you're at with your Eagles love. I'm holding Sean
with it. I mean, I might have talked to a
handful of pros that are like, well, I like the Rams,
but I like them at six and a half and
now I'm not going to bet it. So this to
me seems like the very public professional side with the
pros and the public are lining up on this Eagles team.

(07:47):
And the more if we get on the weather, the
more it makes sense to me that it's becoming a
really pro public side with this Eagles team. Because everyone
knows that the LA is a Dome team. Now they're
coming out coming out East on a short week, So
that was definitely a game I thought we would get
pushed back on. Basically none chet We're basically aligned with

(08:08):
a lot of professionals on this Eagle side, and yeah
for a game that not that it's left for dead,
but it just seems like no one really cares about it.
It's it feels like, you know, pros are betting Houston
Texans here, and it's really just about what we always
talk about. The models are gonna favor Houston here because
it's such a big number and it's my homes as
a big favorite, which historically does not cover. But it's

(08:31):
not like guys banging the table for this Houston team.
I think everyone's just scared, you know, going against the
Chiefs in the playoffs. So like we said, I think
most guys agree with if this is regular season, of
course you would bet Houston here. This is a great number.
This is a nice spot, especially with the way their
defense matches up. They're great to stop in the run.
That's we know the chief the Chiefs, that's what they
want to do here. But yeah, no one, no one

(08:53):
planting their flag on this Houston team. So that that
might be the one blind spot for me this week
is I am really not really giving any respect the
Houston at all. I think this is such a Chief
spot and the fact that no professions really digging their
feet in on this Houston side makes me even more
confident where it's like, no, this does feel like the
game where we see timetime again, right the one seed
tends to roll the four seed or where the five

(09:15):
seed whoever gets into the come play this matchup. I
don't really feel that way with Detroit with the Chiefs here,
like we talked about now the Chiefs are fully healthy,
well arrested, this does feel like a spot the Chiefs
are going to roll. So yeah, pretty interesting. The only
pushback we had we're all sides. We talked totals, heard
nothing about our love for the totals. That basically everyone
I talked to who loves the unders as well. This week,

(09:35):
obviously we're on the highest over. I don't know if
you've come around on that one as well, Chad, But
no guys were calling up saying you're a psycho for
betting this over of the fifty five. None of that.
Becuys were like, no, I see it, like this could
easily be a shootout. And Evan had an amazing trend
and basic getting his article about these high totals outdoors,
we pick the under indoors that's when they do go over.

(09:56):
So yeah, it's nice to see the trends back up
my love for this over, because I I do think
you're getting still a point and a half of value
here on this total for this line's Commanders game.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
All right, let's get into it. That first one up
the Chiefs and the Texans. That line is settled in
at eight and a half since we last both. Yeah,
we are in the foxhol on the Chiefs. I like,
I haven't bet the side on this game yet. I
definitely lean Chiefs. I did bet the teaser. I did

(10:29):
bet the Chiefs. I moved it down to two and
a half and I moved the Bills up to seven
and a half so you can see it in the app.
I've got a teaser on the Bills at minus two
and a half, Bills plus seven and a half, Chiefs
minus two and a half, And like, I still want
to bet the Chiefs here. I'm not buying the Texans.
I'm not buying that they're all of a sudden fixed.

(10:52):
I know their defense is good. What's kept me from
going all in has been a couple of trend ends
of favorites with Mahomes as more than seven. Right, Obviously,
we've talked about this forever. In his career, forty one
percent against the spread as a favorite of more than seven,

(11:14):
five and one this season as a spread of more
than seven. Since twenty twenty, thirty six percent as a
seven plus point favorite, worst mark of any QB in
the NFL.

Speaker 2 (11:32):
However, it's going.

Speaker 1 (11:34):
To be cold twenty degrees Dome teams playing outside fair poorly.
And then this this is where like I want your
take on this, because the trends get really interesting.

Speaker 2 (11:49):
Right.

Speaker 1 (11:50):
So mahomes overall as a seven point favorite, as I said,
twenty two to thirty two and three is a seven
point favorite when the weather is under forty degrees ten
six and one. So what that says to me is

(12:12):
just shy. A fifty percent of his covers as a
seven point favorite come when the weather is below forty degrees. Obviously,
we've been tracking these things for four or five days now.
I've been trying to find like the numbers that back
up my suspicion. And when we get this deluge of

(12:34):
data which we get, this, to me feels like either
I'm looking for confirmation bias or it's confirming my bias
in the way that I want it to.

Speaker 2 (12:44):
Does that make sense?

Speaker 1 (12:45):
Like it that's the number I was looking for to
make me feel better about betting the Chiefs. It feels
like it threads the needle sort of.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
The then diagram of these things.

Speaker 3 (12:55):
Yeah, and you know a little bit about what you
just talked about that we were trying to, like you
just said, we're trying to find reasons to back the Chiefs,
not reasons to fade them here. So that's definitely an
issue going into this one. I agree with you on
that where it's like I'm trying to be open minded here,
but I know that in my gut, in my heart,
I want to be on this Chiefs team. And I

(13:15):
think it's what you just talked about there. It's like
we've already been here before. We know this exact scenario.
And like we said, regular season, we rode that streak,
We faded Mahomes every time. He was a big favorite
basically this year, and I didn't realize he was oh
five to one. That's pretty shocking, Evan. So yeah, that's
pretty telling that, you know. It's just it's different, right,

(13:37):
the public overreacts over rates Mahomes during the regular season.
That was without all of his weapons, too, right, that
was without all the guys we've talked about coming back
to this point, and yeah, to me, we do respect
how great this Huston's defense is and what they've done
this season, but this is the type of scenario where
it's like you have to factor in who they have played, right,

(13:58):
who is in their division, how some of their games
have gone when you go back and look at certain
games they have, Like you know, I think back to
that Green Bay game they played right when that was outdoors,
not even that cold, right, but their defense couldn't stop
the Green Bay offense. Like there's a couple of things
like that where yes, in the right setting, the right environment,
their defense is really dominant, but in a setting like this,

(14:18):
I just can't see it. And I know that. You know,
the strength of Houston right now is the run defense,
Like that is their absolute strength. It's gonna be a
strength on strength because that's what the Chiefs do. Like
second half, they just lean into that run game. And yeah,
this Houston team, I think they're just gonna wilt against
that type of front. And even if they do try
to stack the box and take away the run, Mahome

(14:39):
is gonna kill you. The guy has seen it all.
This is the exact moment he lives for. This is
Andy Reid scheming up those perfect play calls in this
exact scenario. So yeah, my confidence, just like you, has
not waivered, just a great spot. Like you said, if
you're scared off by this big number, it's the perfect
number to tease, like they're giving you the teas here
like taking it down to two and a half. If

(15:00):
you don't like the Bills, throw the Eagles in there.
You're taking the Eagles basically down just to win outright,
That's going to be a nice spot to be in.
So I'm right right there with you. I'm not scared
off by this number. You know, the total obviously, we
talked about it. That's the only fear for me is
we might have missed the key number in the value.

Speaker 1 (15:17):
I think it's too I think it's too low now.
I wouldn't play the total at the number it's at now.
It was higher a few days ago. I think you
missed it. It's under forty two now, just like.

Speaker 3 (15:28):
I would still play because I do think it's going
to keep coming downchat because we just talked about the weather,
like if this is going to be freezing cold and
even a little bit of chance of snow, I could
see the public finally joining us on the under because
right now, the public right now is still in the
over because they're viewing it the same way. It's like
this the lowest total that you can get with mahomes
and you know CJ has big plays. That's what CJ does.

(15:50):
He makes big plays that could ruin totals like this
for going over. So I get why the early money
right now from the public is on the over. But
I think it's be a closer and it's gonna be
all weather talk, but we're about to get into it.
It's this is going to be a week dictated by
the weather in many ways, and this feels a good
type of game the exact same way where it's like,
you know, when people do wake up Saturday morning, they

(16:12):
see that it's going to be say ten degrees or
fifteen degrees that kickoff, or the chance of snow in
this matchup. I just think it's going to become pouring
in on the under. So I still don't hate it.
If you want to take it under forty one and
a half, I just I put it out there, like
I have this at forty one. There's only half point
of value here. It's not crazy amount of value that
I'm making you guys run to the window to bet
this right now. But to me, there's still is value

(16:33):
on it. But I get where Chat's coming from. It's like,
if you feel like you missed it, you could roll
the dice and hope for an opening drive touchdown and
then you take it live, take the underlive. So that's
always the way you can play these type of games.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
I love doing that, and we've talked about that a
lot this season. You know, the other day, I forget
which game it were, I think it was the Broncos Bills.
After that first touchdown, the total up to fifty three,
and it was originally it closed it like I think

(17:06):
a half eight, and so you were all of a
sudden getting five more points. And we see this all
the time, especially with these island games for lack of
a better term, where there's nobody else where. Everyone's watching
these one game, this one game primetime games Thursday night,
Monday night, Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (17:23):
When there is a touchdown on the.

Speaker 1 (17:24):
First drive or early on in the game, the total spikes,
and every single time you see like these teams settle
in even if there's a touchdown or score right after.
We saw with Buffalo and Denver this past weekend, like
it immediately you can get a really.

Speaker 2 (17:40):
High number live. So I think that's a good idea.

Speaker 1 (17:42):
I just think there's so many options on this game,
why do you want to waste it on a number
that you don't feel that confident about.

Speaker 2 (17:51):
I do want to pull in.

Speaker 1 (17:53):
When I was listening to the Action Network pod, I
listen to Stucky in Raybam Ray went all in or
like Dalton Schultz over three and a half receptions a lot.
If you're afraid to play the Chiefs because you don't
like the number, that's a good way to play the
Chiefs without having to play the number. Because the one
thing the Chiefs aren't great at is defending the middle

(18:15):
of the field. They focus so much on the outside
receivers and tight ends historically have a lot of success
against the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (18:22):
And if you expect the Chiefs to.

Speaker 1 (18:23):
Be winning, the Texans are going to have to be
throwing the ball and Dalton shoots. Dalton Schultz will likely
have a lot of opportunities to make some receptions. I
don't know if you have a strong feeling on that.

Speaker 3 (18:37):
I love it. I mean, there's tons of angles you
can play in this game. Again, we focus mainly here
on just totals and sides, but you know, second half
unders under any Reid and Mahomes, it's a cash cow.
Like I love betting the second half unders, and we
talk about all the time. It's because they basically just
ball control, maybe give the other team two to three
possessions total in the second half because they just hold

(18:57):
onto it, run it down the throat, and just basically
take the wind out other sales. And we've seen it
time and time again air ahead unders like that's another
reason I love this under. It's just a great, great,
great spot to play because public use perceives as Chiefs
the highest current offense, where that's just not who they've
been these last couple of years. So that's another sneaky play.
If it's you know, say it is a fluky first half,

(19:21):
right it's twenty one fourteen Chiefs or twenty fourteen Chiefs,
you have to play that second half under. It's a
guarantee it's going to come through if it's that high
score or a first half. So that's my another play
of this where it's like, if you don't want to
bet anything here, definitely lean to that second half under.
With this Chiefs team, they're just time and time again
it's been cashing because it's just who they are. They're

(19:41):
just a team that leans into the run the second half.

Speaker 1 (19:45):
Washington plus nine and a half at Detroit total fifty
five and a half. This was Simon says, you like
the over a lot. I offer this from Evan, and
I say this with love because I am with you

(20:05):
on the over. I haven't bet it yet because I
think it's I think the total is going to come
down a little bit. I keep seeing juice it's directionally
towards fifty five. In playoff games between number one and
number six seeds, the under is eighty percent twenty four
games sample size over the past twenty years.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
I still like the over.

Speaker 1 (20:31):
I think there's one of those games where they might
start slow and there might be fifty points.

Speaker 2 (20:38):
Scored in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
I think when these defense are a little bit gassed,
when the offenses have figured out how to scheme against
these defenses that are not very good and don't have
great personnel. With the offenses that they have and the
weapons they have on offense, the second half of this
game is going to be just pinball.

Speaker 2 (21:01):
It's going to be amazing. That's my take on it.

Speaker 3 (21:04):
Yeah, and it's an over. I'm betting knowing that it's
gonna come down to a handful of fourth down plays
Like these two coaches don't shy away from who they are,
and we've seen a time in to them. Again, like
the Lions games that do go under, it's when they
do struggle and fourth down a golf turns a bowl
over a lot. And you know, as much as you
like to bash their defense and those games were golf struggles.

(21:24):
This season, their defense has stepped up. So I do
get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean
it's an insanely high total. It's fifty five and a half,
So I totally get you're coming from on that one.
But yeah, when I when I go through the matchups,
I still think, you know, as good as Washington's defense
did make stops against the Bucks, you said it right,

(21:46):
there was there was a plenty of opportunity there for
the Bucks. Just the role this Washington team, especially offensively
and on the flip side, as well as Jane Daniels
played right the zero pun zero turnovers, I don't think
that was that great by him. Like there were a
couple of throws he did miss, a couple of guys
he did have open and it's like, I just think
he needed to get that first playoff game under his belt.

(22:07):
Like I do think he'll be more confident, relaxed than
this and just knowing that this speed is different, like
people say it all the time, playoff speed is different.
You have to play it to really get it. And
I think he did. You know, even talking after the game,
Jeniel Dan has talked about that where it's like he
gets it. Where people say it's different than the playoffs.
It is like every guy plays if it's their last snap.
They are just so desperate to get to where they

(22:28):
they're going, and that's the super Bowl, and it's like
everyone knows, right, you put in a year of work
for this exact one game opportunity. Everyone's gonna be going
super hard. No plays off And like you just said,
I think this once again favors a high scoring game
the second half, where even if it's low scoring in
the first half, it could end up being a tract
me just because these offenses both are so explosive. They

(22:49):
both have weapons that can at any point take the
ball all the way downfield and score. And yeah, this
this game, I like we talked on sharp clause, I
was just shocked to know that there were so many
professionals was coming in on this line side. I just
we've seen historically it's just rare that both favorites, big
favorites like them and the Chiefs cover in the same week.

(23:09):
You know, let alone have big win blowouts, and you know,
this Commander's team in a normal year, they're probably you know,
winning their division with the amount of wins they had
this season. Like this isn't just a normal six seed.
So I do understand that trend from Evan. That does
make sense, but it's also thinking about, well, the sixth
seed used to be the last seed. So that was

(23:31):
when the sixth seed was coming in and playing the
one seed after pulling off an upset and kind of
being this, you know, lucky to be in there type
of team that gets in there, where nowadays it's like
this is like a twelve thirteen win team, Like it's
just totally different now sixteen.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
That is a great point.

Speaker 3 (23:47):
So yeah, it's just I'm trying.

Speaker 2 (23:49):
To looking for a different because so and your stupid
well I.

Speaker 3 (23:53):
Told you had that amazing stat just to basically about
these high totals. The difference between outdoors and indoors, and
that to me is once again the difference here, like
we're not playing in twenty degrees Philly here We're playing
in an air controlled Ford Stadium where it's like perfect,
It's perfect for this type of matchup for these both
these teams are based on the track and they're just
gonna be running the ball up and down the field.
So yeah, I still love Washington here. I love the matchup,

(24:17):
and obviously for them to win this, I know what
I'm doing here. I need a ton of luck, Like
there's a reason you're getting plus four hundred right now
in Washington. But this just feels like the upset. Like
you know, last year, people forget the Chiefs they made
that run as the four seed wherever. It was like,
we've had a run here of you know, these crazy

(24:37):
later seeds making runs. I mean, what was it two
three years ago? The Rams Bengals they are both four
and three seeds. So I know people are used to
just the one seeds dominating. I know historically it is
the best spot to be in, but every now and
then we do get a crazy upset and that's what
I'm banking on here. It's like of all the games
like we've gone through here. I mean, you could say
the Bills are an upset, but that's not an upset.

(25:00):
They're one and a half point dog, one point dog.
That's not I real upset this, This would legit be shocking.
I mean even talking to book makers, it's basically ninety
percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money, all
of it is on Detroit's money line, in their parlays,
all their teasers. So this to me, in our normal year,
I'd feel way more confident about this bet chat. But
it has been the year of chalk, So I'm betting it.

(25:22):
But it's like with a little bit of a little
bit of confidence just because the public has just been
winning on these type of bets.

Speaker 1 (25:28):
Well, look, I agree with you, of the two games
that we're looking at that are bigger favorites, I feel
much more comfortable betting on the Chiefs than I do
on the Lions. However, we've talked about this all year.
The Lions under Dan Campbell and under Jared Goff are
just dominant against the spread and against the spread at

(25:53):
home and against the spread with extra rest thirteen and four.
Against the spread as a duo with extra rests eleven
and two is Phase Golf indoors thirty four to thirteen
and one against the spread eighteen to two.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
And one against the spread.

Speaker 1 (26:13):
Against teams averaging more than twenty four points per game,
the Commanders average twenty eight. The Lions are the best
in the Super Bowl era over the past three years
and four years against the spread. And then I want
to remind everybody that the Commanders have won their last

(26:36):
five games on the final play of the game. That's
not even a joke. Five straight games winning the game
on the final play of the game. So to me,
that would make me think, Okay, the Commanders know how
to stay in the game. They're going to keep it close.
There's an opportunity for a backdoor cover. There's reasons to

(26:59):
be on the Commanders here. But I will say that
that includes beating New Orleans, not a very good team
they needed help, beating Philly after Jalen Hurts was injured,
beating Atlanta because Raheem Morris is still learning how to
use timeouts, beating Dallas in a game that didn't matter,

(27:21):
and then last week because of Baker mayfields fumbled, they
stayed in the game, and then they got the Zane
Gonzalez field goal off the upright. So either they are
truly magical and they will find a way to backdoors,
huge underdogs or they are due to just get blown
out by a better team.

Speaker 3 (27:41):
Yeah, we need a lot of luck. And it just
reminds me too of earlier in the year and we bet.
I think they got up to seven and a half
in our contest, or maybe it was six and a half.
Either way, they were playing the Ravens and it was
basically a game where they got dominated the entire game. Yeah,
and they came back exactly a way to come back
back door and it's like he.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
Got up to seven and a half. This is when
the Ravens couldn't cover anyone in the secondary. Jaden Daniels
had a miraculous throw down the sideline, they scored. They
ended up covering the seven by half a point. It
was one of the few times where we played the
number and it actually worked out for us this year.
I will never forget it. It was brilliant and it

(28:21):
made us love Jayden Daniels.

Speaker 3 (28:23):
And that's what we need though, like we know we need,
We're gonna need a lot of luck here because what
you just broke down, like Detroit is the better team.
They're more the established team, They're the veteran team. This
is their year, Like we talked about, this is lined
up perfectly. They have all their coaches still on the team,
Their offense basically Montgomery's back, They're ready to go. Their
offense is basically as good as it's gonna get for

(28:43):
the rest of the season, right Like, there's there's nothing
else they can add other than you know, Montgomery like that,
that to me is the biggest game changer of their
offense having him back with Gibbs, yeah, you know, we
talked about that. That's that's a big deal. So we
know it's an uphill battle here, and that's why we're
we're playing the number, you know, throwing a little on
the money line, but it's really all about us getting

(29:05):
this back door. That's that's what me and chat are
hoping here, is that we can get a miracle hell
marry of our own and get this back door cover
or crazy upset win and on a two minute drive
by Jane daneos So. To me, it's just a fun
bet and a great value bet.

Speaker 2 (29:18):
But do you see it? You know what?

Speaker 1 (29:19):
Actually I want to wait. I want to wait until
we get to your biggest bets because I'm curious think
about this. Is this a you know one of my
four biggest bets of the year bets or is this
I feel like I'm finding the edge bet and if
I've got to choose this side, I'm choosing Washington.

Speaker 2 (29:39):
Don't answer it yet. Let's talk about it with your
biggest bets.

Speaker 1 (29:43):
The La Rams at Philadelphia Eagles are minus six. The
total is forty four. It's gone up a little bit.
This was my exec decision, and not surprisingly, I'm not
surprised by the feed back that we got on sharp calls.

(30:03):
To me, it's the only side where there is a
clear discrepancy between what the number is and what it
should probably be. You said you would bet this up
to seven. It has moved up to six and a
half at a couple of books. I'm still at six
at bet three six five.

Speaker 2 (30:26):
Nothing has.

Speaker 1 (30:27):
None of my analysis over the past forty eight hours
has made me walk away from being super confident about
the Eagles.

Speaker 3 (30:38):
Yeah. Still interesting THO. When you look in the action app,
it's the most of the bets and the money right
now are still in the rams. So it shows that
you know, what I thought would happened this week is
kind of happening, which is, you know, the daytime talk shows.
They're going to be shitting on Jalen Hurts. They're gonna
be asking questions, is is he the worst quarterback left
out of all the quarterbacks in the playoffs? Is can

(30:59):
you trust him? Can you trust this Egos team? Why
wouldn't you trust Stafford, a guy who's been there before? Right,
And you know the fact that they're overlooking many little
things that we aren't overlooking, which is Egles match up
really well against this Rams team. And now you have
you factor in the fact that this is Stafford outdoors
in the rain, in the snow, and it's gonna be

(31:20):
maybe three degrees maybe twenty five degrees that kickoff here
in Philly on Sunday like it's it. It does feel
very easy. And I do wonder why there was professional
money on the Rams early, but now that I know
that most that was just you know, taking the value
what they saw before they ran the numbers. And the
fact that basically any guy I have talked to who's

(31:40):
coming on the other side at this point, they've come
in on this Egles team and yeah, this is gonna like,
to me, this is gonna hit a point of Okay,
if it got up to seven I would totally understand
guys coming back to their side taking the Rams once
I got up to a touchdown, but still at six,
I think there's still a lot of value around this
Eagle side, and this might not be one of my

(32:01):
biggest bets of the weekend just because of that, where
it's like, I just don't see scenario how the Rams
pull this one off. Like, I don't see how they
can get stops defensively and then offensively. How inconsistent Stafford's
been now factor in the elements. It just feels like
a really bad matchup for him, and I know that.
You know, the Eagles lost to Kobe Dean, who's their
green dot, he's their play caller defensively. You know, Fangio

(32:26):
joked about it. It's like there's only three calls per game.
He's like, I don't run that unique of a defense.
He's like, it's not gonna be that tough. It's it's
the tough spart is losing a leader obviously in your defense.
But we talk coming into the playoffs, Eagles were the
only team with all twenty two of their starters from
Week one at this point of the season. Now, obviously
they can't say anymore. Right, they lost one of their
starters on defense, but other than that, they're pretty healthy.

(32:46):
Now on the flip side, this is the healthiest Rams
have been all year. Like this is their offensive line
is totally healthy. They have all their receivers. I mean,
we and chat talked about a little bit on Tuesday,
like losing Higbee. I haven't got an update on it,
but that's a huge deal for that offense obviously, Like
that's a really big safety valve for the Rams. And
obviously now losing to Kobe Dean, who's you know, argue

(33:07):
with their best cover linebacker, that's even more of a
reason to use your tight end and attack that. So
that could be an angle if you're trying to play
it with the Rams. But I just the more I
look into it, it just feels like the Rams that was
their big moment. They're win for the city last week
in that game against the Vikings, and the way they're

(33:28):
gonna scheme it up this Eagles team, especially with the
weather what it's going to be, which was you know,
either cold, snowy, or wet, It's gonna be a saque
type of game. And when I go back and I
watch that film on that Rams game. It really did
look like men playing against college kids. How big the
Eagles offensive line is compared to this d line of
the Rams. So you know the Rams new coming in

(33:48):
this year, right, They're gonna be really experience inexperienced rebuild year.
Losing Aaron Donald. The guys have been playing above board,
like they have really stepped up. But this is a total,
totally different animal than what they face against the Likes.
Even if you go back and watch the Vikings game,
there was actually pretty big holes in that game for
them running They just got behind and they had to
pass the ball, and once they had to pass the ball,

(34:09):
you saw it just fell apart with Sam Donald, like
there were multiple times there we held on the ball
for too long. You can't say the same about Hurts.
Like Hurts the type of guy that if the first
read's not gonna be there, he's gonna either pull it
down and try to run it, or he'll try to
make some type of play happen with his feet, which
you know, Sam Darnald obviously is not the same type
of athlete as Jalen Hurts here. So yeah, the more

(34:30):
I dive into it, Chad, the more I love it.
I'm with you. I was shocked to see this total
win back up. So obviously some smart money is coming
on the over great give me better value on a
game that's gonna be sloppy in the weather elements with
this outdoor team in LA coming outdoors, Like I just
feel like this does feel like the classic Philly game
we talked on Tuesday, a little bit like thirty one
to ten, thirty one to fourteen thirty one, Like just

(34:53):
a very low scoring game where you know, one side
puts a bunch of points with other side doesen't. So
you know that's that's what I'm bank on you is
that the Eagles obviously roll, but I still think the
Rams could keep up with them offensively. And Yeah, the
more more I look at this Rams team and how
special of a season they had, right, I think, you
know they're they're rare spot. They were one to four

(35:13):
start the year and they made a crazy run in
the season. I believe it was nine to two to
take this division. Incredible hats off to this team what
they've done this season, But this just feels like they're
finally running into an absolute juggernut. This Eagles team and
you know they had it last week with John Hurts.
There's no excuse this week that yes, he was rusty,
he looked rusty. No excuse this week, full game plan,

(35:34):
everything on board. Eagles should absolutely roll this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (35:38):
Yeah, the number just hasn't made sense all week. Hasn't
made sense to me that it's not at seven. To
be honest, I talked about this.

Speaker 2 (35:46):
The other day.

Speaker 1 (35:47):
This line was three when they play each other earlier
in the season, not that long ago, and it was
in La. The fact that it's only six now and
the Eagles to me, have gotten significantly better. And I
think there's too much value being placed on what the
Rams did in prime time against the Vikings.

Speaker 2 (36:10):
A team that you and I were on. The Rams.

Speaker 1 (36:13):
A lot of professional betters thought they were on a
downward trend and we're getting off the Sam Donald bandwagon
after what everyone saw against Detroit.

Speaker 2 (36:21):
So yeah, bet bet bet bet away.

Speaker 3 (36:26):
By a way I said, though, there's some amazing trends here.
If you are scared off by the number, this ego
spot is a great user spot. Basically, when they are
a big favorite like this at home in the playoffs,
they almost always went out right, especially under Sirianni. It's
been a really great spot. Sirianni struggles with his team
have really come on the road in the playoffs, not
so much at home. So it's another just a great
spot to back this team at home before Obviously they're

(36:49):
most likely going on the road next week to Detroit.

Speaker 2 (36:52):
Simon, it is time for hour Big Ball is Better
the Week.

Speaker 1 (37:02):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
and Tommy John makes the greatest We're heading into the
Baltimore Ravens.

Speaker 2 (37:16):
At the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are.

Speaker 1 (37:18):
One point favorites now at bet three sixty five. Still
a couple of one and a half's out there, but
money has been coming back in on the Bills. As
we discussed during sharp calls, the total is fifty one
and a half. We're throwing people a little bit of
a curveball. I'll get to that in a second. Just
some updates. Za Flowers did not practice on Wednesday. John

(37:39):
Harbaugh said that doesn't necessarily mean he won't play on Sunday,
but he did not practice. This is a luck rankings
under We discussed liking the under in this game.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
It is our big ball bet, our first big.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
Balls under, presented by Tommy John fifty one and a
half Bills Ravens.

Speaker 2 (38:11):
We were never going to.

Speaker 1 (38:12):
Get there as a big balls with the Bills. I
can't get there with the Bills. The wise guys can't
get there with the Bills. You might be on an
island in some respect with the Bills despite the money moving.
But betting the under here feels like ballzy because all

(38:33):
anyone wants to do is talk about the quarterbacks in
this game, and that is making the number higher than
you would expect because of the explosive nature of how
these two guys can score points. But in seven playoff games,
Lamar has never gone over. Even when these two teams
played last time and Derek Henry scored on i think

(38:55):
the first play of the game, it still went under
from the original total.

Speaker 2 (39:02):
And like these are run oriented teams.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
Baltimore's key right there, that's the key right there, what
you just said.

Speaker 1 (39:10):
Baltimore's time of possession fifth in the league past three games.

Speaker 2 (39:15):
It's first Buffalo is fifth.

Speaker 1 (39:18):
Both are top four in rushing play percentage and top
seven in rushing attempts per game. People are just thinking
about the quarterbacks and the MVP candidates. They're not thinking
about the holistic nature of this game.

Speaker 3 (39:35):
Yeah, and that's tends what the public does, right. They
just look at the base six of it and they're silly. Yeah,
and that's why the early money here has come in.
I'm hoping people listening to this this is the rare spiral.
I'm like, pull your car over, bet this under and now,
because to me, all the money is going to come
in professionally on the under, and I think the public
will join them once they see that this is another

(39:56):
weather game. Shat, this is a game, are right. They're
saying might be eighteen degrees ten degrees, It feels like
ten degrees or negative three degrees whatever they're gonna project
with that lake effect wins because they're saying it might
be fifteen to twenty per hour wins during this game
as well. Some lake effects snow as well. So this
just everything about this says ugly low scoring game where

(40:17):
two teams are both run heavy, and you know, you
just touch on like this Bill's identity. Especially the second
half of the season, it feels like every time I'm
watching them, they're bringing in the extra alignment, right, They're
always just gonna say that, Yeah, it's the truth. Though,
It's like that's totally what they've become because they know
they have the ultimate weapon in the backfield. I mean,

(40:37):
obviously Littmore's ultimate weapon, but Josh Allen's right there with
him where it's like you can do the read option
with him and Cook and you bring in that extra linement.
You let Josh Allen dictate the play if they don't
step up to stop their run, if they're going to
keep the safeties back to stop the passing down the field,
the Bills are more than happy to run the ball
all day. And that's what they've been doing. Like defenses
having respect Josh Allen's big arm and the fact that

(40:59):
he is not turning the ball over. It's really changed
everything with this Bills team. They can be boring, long
drive conservative and just run the ball. I mean, Cook,
you know, we don't talk about him enough because of
the Josh Allen factor, but it's like this guy is
a top five, top six running back right now football.
Like he is that rare breed that when you get
down towards the red zone, he can find a way

(41:21):
every time they get in there like he's he's got
that type of talent where he can find those holes
and squeak in to get those touchdowns. And you know,
they've really relied on him the season. We're giving him
more touches the season going along end. You know, the
fact that this is fifty one and a half, I
think Chad just talked about it. It really feels like
an inflated line because of public reception. It's the two
MVPs playing against each other like this is going to

(41:42):
be a type of shootout, and the books are being
rewarded right now. The money, the bets all of there
right now are still on the over. So I want
people to get ahead of it. This easily could shift
two points by kickoff just because of the weather. And
I think that once more news out, let's start talking
about once more you know sports shows started talking about,

(42:03):
That's when more people are gonna start coming on this total. Now,
do you want to get to the sides?

Speaker 1 (42:07):
Chad, Well, listen, I love the sides of Thanksgiving. I'm
a huge sweet potato guy.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
Are you dugging though? That's what the people want to know,
is Chad dug in on the Ravens. Are you Are
you betting the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (42:20):
I might just go all in on the under you
you pick a side.

Speaker 3 (42:26):
Because people are giving me shit. They're like, they're like,
this is the classic spot where Chad and Simon we're
gonna count this as a win no matter what side
they go on. No, I'm gonna make Chad pick a side.
I will pick a side, and one of us will
dance another side's grave.

Speaker 2 (42:38):
All well, this is gonna have to be a Scoo
treu let game. I have not made a decision.

Speaker 1 (42:42):
Mare party of me is just sort of hoping the
money keeps coming in on the bills and I can get.

Speaker 2 (42:46):
It back to pick.

Speaker 3 (42:47):
That's true. That's true.

Speaker 1 (42:49):
So like I don't I don't feel rushed to choose
a side in this game at all, but I will
say as a favorite of three points or less or underdog.
Lamar is twenty six and nine against the spread in
the playoffs and the regular seasons, the only six times

(43:09):
in his career he is open as an underdog and
ended up closing as a favorite. He's six and oh
against the spread and six and oh straight up, Like,
it's very hard not to want to back Lamar, who
also I think is leading a more well rounded team. However,

(43:35):
Josh Allen versus teams that allow less than twenty one
points per game sixty nine percent against the spread. That
is comparable to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees.

Speaker 2 (43:50):
So there's there's ways to love both sides.

Speaker 3 (43:54):
He I totally overall, though, like you just said, the
numbers do favorite the Ravens, like when you really died into.

Speaker 1 (43:59):
The trend percent if you look at if you look
at the overall matchup, the Ravens are the better team,
right and that's look it's reflected in the line. They
are very short favorites on the road against the number
two seed. The market, the bookmakers are telling you that
the Ravens are the better team in this matchup. If

(44:21):
you don't play this game on the field. Obviously, I
want to get the best number I can. I don't
feel rushed to bet the Ravens, yet I'm still frustrated
that I didn't bet them at plus two. I'm definitely
leaning to the Ravens. We talked about the first half
the other day. Betting the Ravens at minus a half
point Stucky on the Action Network pod talked about the

(44:44):
Ravens first half on the money line. I feel like
every time at minus one ten, I feel like every
time Stucky talks about betting the Ravens in the first half,
they cover.

Speaker 2 (44:53):
It's it's it's weird, but.

Speaker 3 (44:57):
That's pretty good. I feel like the best first half
team other than ever.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
And by the way, the Bills are the second are
the best second half team ever.

Speaker 3 (45:05):
And I told you that. That's what Like. There's a
bunch of trends I love with the Bills, but that
was the biggest one that jumped out to me that yes,
the Ravens win the first half thirteen to ten. Yeah,
you cover your first half bet, but that is like,
you're dead. To me, You're dead. If you're a Ravens backer,
you need at least a ten point lead head into
the second half. Because Josh Allen all season has flipped

(45:26):
a switch and we saw it. Let me start a
week one, I mean, me and Chad, We're on Arizona
Week one against this Bills team. Feeling great. I think
we had six and a half or seven maybe, and
Arizona dominates the first half. Josh Allen came out the
second half just absolutely dominated, blew them out, and it
basically set the tone for the whole season where it
doesn't matter where he's at, what his team is struggles
are in the second half, it's just Josh Allen. He

(45:48):
makes like there are no adjustments how the team can
make to slow him down. And we've seen late here though,
I think the Bills defense second half has really caught
up to it. They've been great at making these second
half adjustments and really helping obviously this Bills team stay
in these type of games. So yeah, I've I'm I'm
with Chad that like, I feel way more confidence and
betting the under here, but I have to pick a side.

(46:10):
I am betting a side. I am betting the Bills,
But I mean, I'm not banging the table like fuck man,
I'm talking some pros here, like you idiot, this is
the easiest money in life. You gotta take the Ravens here,
And it's just like, what the fuck do you know, dude,
Like you're feeling that confident about betting this number. I
feel more confident or other bets on the sides than
they do in this one where it's like I'm I'm
betting here, on my model obviously, but it's also just

(46:34):
a playoff feeling of this. This does feel like the
type of spot to back. Not that he's doubted here,
Josh Allen, but it feels like it right when you're
going through the playoff numbers. He doesn't have a great
record either in the playoffs, right, and that we talked
about that's never I never put that on him. I've
always put that on the defense that they've kind of
let him down these exact spots we're having Stefan Diggs

(46:55):
drop a ball right between his hands, like, yeah, I
know the Bills have been a curse franchise and they've
had bad luck in these exact spots. Were on the
flip side. I mean, fuck, dude, the Ravens became a
franchise on what ch had nineteen ninety eight and they
have two Super Bowls like they don't. This is not
some long suffering fan base. This is a fan base
has been spoiled beyond belief. And yeah, Evan has an

(47:16):
amazing stat Josh Allen, oh and three as a dog
in his career. But I think he little thing that
you know, saying to us in the playoffs only three
is a dog in the playoffs and straight up that's
all against Mahomes though, like when I'm oh, Houston, oh
right right, we did bet that one. I do remember
that game, Houston two and a half. Yeah, that is

(47:39):
weird thinking back to that. Holy shit, Watson man, damn,
that's crazy. Yeah. So I don't know, it's it feels
like Alan I've just viewed as Krypto as the Chiefs.
I just think this is, you know, this not this
his career defining, but this is definitely off season defining,
Like the amount of shit that's gonna come on the

(48:01):
other side whoever loses this game, especially if Josh Allen
doesn't live up to the moment or Lamar doesn't live
up to the moment. I mean, it's all there. This
is what you know, TV lives for talking about this
in the offseason. So yeah, this, this obviously is the
biggest game of the weekend, no doubt.

Speaker 2 (48:15):
This is the you talk about sides.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
This is the main course, brother, This is like the
game the ratings that we should we should set a
line for what the ratings will be like. If ratings
have generally been twenty five twenty six million viewers for
the playoffs, I think this goes to twenty eight twenty
eight million viewers for this Let's let's keep an eye

(48:39):
on that so we can talk about our next week.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
Matt Mitchell.

Speaker 1 (48:41):
Make a note if Matt Mitchell survives the weekend, because
we know the Bills are long suffering fans, because Matt
Mitchell talks about it non fucking stop. It is he's
making zero long term plans right now because we don't
know if we don't even know if he'll be here
to record the podcast on Sunday night because of his

(49:01):
love for the Bills. Yeah, I feel like my biggest
bets this weekend are going to be the under in
the Eagles, and if I bet on the Ravens, it's
going to be like a tiny little.

Speaker 2 (49:13):
Taste or maybe the first half. I have no courage
on this game.

Speaker 3 (49:17):
I can't follow you. I told you there's there's smart,
professional money on that Raven side.

Speaker 2 (49:21):
And I'm a professional simon.

Speaker 3 (49:24):
Okay, I definitely say it's it's more. It's it's more
of the professional side as we sit here on Thursday.
But like Chad just talked a little bit about, there
is some respecting money coming at this point on the
Bill side, and there has been some buyback and we
have seen this number move down to one, so it
is a really torn game between professionals this one.

Speaker 1 (49:42):
Simon, we have some big road underdogs here in the
divisional round, and one of the biggest thrills a gambler
can experience is watching the quarterback of a big underdog,
with the game just out of reach, masterfully march his
team down the field to score a feudal last second
touchdown to cover the spread. That's what we call a

(50:05):
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(50:26):
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Speaker 2 (50:30):
Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in
twenty twenty five?

Speaker 3 (50:34):
Because comfort is king.

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Save twenty five percent at Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.
That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. I'm laughing a
little bit because, as is tradition, I'm a train monkey.
I just I read whatever is in front of me.

(50:57):
I have no idea what the ad read is going
to be. And a lot of times Matt Mitchell, all
credit to him, will create entirely new reads that I
am reading in real time for the first time. And
so when I saw the line that's what we got,
that's what we call a backdoor cover, I was like,
oh God, where is he going to take this pun?

(51:18):
I have no idea how is he going to work
this into an acceptable ad for our sponsor, Tommy John
And he did it and it makes me giggle every
single time. He's a genius. I hope the Bills win
because we'd truly be at a loss. Simon, I have
said my biggest bets are going to be the under
and the Eagles. Tell me what your biggest bets are
going to be.

Speaker 3 (51:38):
Yeah, I'm heavy on the Eagles side right now. Definitely
heavy on this under. Like you just talked about. In
this game, Sam goes for teasers like if you want
to join me right now, have a ton of teasers
with the Chiefs Eagles, tons of teasers with the Commanders
with the Bills. Obviously love the Commanders, and you know,

(51:59):
like I said, I I've taken the plus nine and
a half and I've thrown a little bet, just a
little bet on the money line here. It's just something
I have to do where I you know, this is
the only real dog in this matchup I actually believe
in that can pull off the upset. So I have
to do it. Like there's got to be one shocker,
right This can't be the Year of Chalk, the year
of boring Chad. Can we get an upset here in

(52:20):
this divisional round? So yeah, for my biggest bets, not
a shocker. Love Eagles, especially even at minus six, and
love that under in that Bill's raven game. Just that
feels like I have it at forty eight and a
half even if it came down by two points. I
think you're still getting good value of forty nine and
a half. So, like we talk all the time key
numbers people, fifty one and a half is a key number,

(52:41):
Like if you go mathematically how often that lanes on
fifty one? You are still getting great value right now
taking this under a fifty one and a half when
all hope is lost. All this left is relief. Let's
play scoot Roulette.

Speaker 2 (52:58):
Scoot Roulette. You'll be on the Bill, I'll be on
the Ravens, and we'll just fucking do it. I never win.
I've just cursed the Ravens. You're welcome, Matt Mitchell.

Speaker 1 (53:08):
I'm doing it for you, just so you'll be around
and your whole neighborhood gets ice cream and you get
to eat your fucking wings with your gloves on.

Speaker 2 (53:15):
But that's what it's going to be. Scoot Roulette, Bills
and Ravens.

Speaker 1 (53:19):
Let's go all right, before we get out of here,
let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the
final word.

Speaker 2 (53:26):
Evan, this ought would be good. The last word with
Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

Speaker 4 (53:33):
This is going to be a mess. To answer one
of Simon's questions from earlier. So you talked about Hurts
and a teaser, Well, how about this favorite of seven
or less at home or an underdog? Hurts is seventeen
and five against the spread in his career, twenty and
two in a six point teaser in that spot, so
basically asking him to win the game, but not too
bad there.

Speaker 1 (53:53):
So to your point, though, like putting the Eagles in
a six point teaser right now and getting them at
pit with either the Chiefs at two and a half
or the Bills at seven and a half is as
good a play as what I did, which is Chiefs
minus two and a half Bills plus seven and a half.

Speaker 4 (54:09):
Feels like a decent leg obviously, if you like the
Eagles hits the money line. Let's talk about the cold
game you started with, which is Houston and Kansas City.
So Houston will attempt to do what hasn't been done
in almost thirty years. So road playoff teams since two
thousand and three, nine and thirteen straight up in eight
plus mile an hour wins twenty five degrees or less.

(54:31):
Now they are zero to four when they are Dome
teams losing by sixteen point eight points per game. The
last Dome team I found to win in those temperatures
on the road in twenty five degrees or less than
the playoffs ninety five ninety six Colts in Kansas City, Jim.

Speaker 3 (54:47):
Harbaugh at quarterback. There so been a minute.

Speaker 4 (54:50):
Let's see if Houston can pull the all time shockers.
So I kind of wanted to talk Washington and Detroit
here for a second, and there's been a little bit
of waffling. So a lot of people like Detroit, a
lot of people like Washington. I'll just toss out two
different angles here. So it's not often we see a
super dominant team like Detroit. So seventy five percent plus

(55:11):
ats win percentage entering the playoffs plus being a favorite
of nine or more, it's only happened three times last
twenty years. Aaron Rodgers two thousand and eight, one by
twenty two, Drew Brees twenty twelve, one by seventeen, Tom
Brady twenty seventeen.

Speaker 3 (55:27):
One by eighteen.

Speaker 4 (55:28):
So if you like Detroit and you think they are
the juggernaut they are walking in sounds decent to me.
Now the one angle I looked at because listen, Washington
scoring twenty eight points per game, obviously Jaden putting up
a ton of points on the ground through the air.

Speaker 3 (55:43):
I thought this was interesting.

Speaker 4 (55:44):
So playoff underdogs is seven and a half or more,
just simply off the bat, thirty two and twenty nine
against the spread last twenty years. But what happens if
the underdog scores, say seventeen points, those dogs are twenty
six and thirteen against the spread sixty seven percent. If
they score twenty one plus eighteen and eight sixty nine percent.
So to me, it's more of a question of Washington's

(56:07):
team total than it is the actual spread, But just
two different ways to look at it.

Speaker 3 (56:13):
And then I found this interesting.

Speaker 4 (56:15):
So basically, this Josh Allen Lamar Jackson game is pretty
much one two in MVP. Now, obviously Saquon could sneak
in there or whatever. We haven't seen the votes yet,
but if you look at top two players to meet
in the playoffs in MVP voting, it'll be the fourteenth
time according to FTN who did this research. But I
went a little deeper because I wanted to see when

(56:37):
was the last time one of those two quarterbacks or
players were home underdogs in the game. Last happened nineteen
seventy six. So the fact that Josh Allen is going
to close as a home underdog in this game between
two people two quarterbacks in MVP voting felt, you know,
like the line maybe didn't make sense, but obviously it's

(56:59):
how you put it there. The last time it happened
nineteen seventy six Steelers at Baltimore Colts, it was Burt
Jones versus Jack Lambert. So that is the last time
it actually happened fourteen matchups between.

Speaker 2 (57:10):
Why this line makes sense now?

Speaker 1 (57:12):
Why it makes sense because Lamar Jackson should win the MVP,
He should be the odds on favorite to win the MVP.

Speaker 4 (57:21):
I agree, I completely agree, and I've been saying two.

Speaker 1 (57:24):
Years at the end, Simon, You're a hater. V Simon's
a hater. He doesn't agree, but Evan agrees. All right,
we are applying logic and reason to this. We're not
getting emotional about the narrative.

Speaker 4 (57:37):
Correct, we are, and that's why the line, honestly in
this game is probably one of the more interesting we've seen, right.

Speaker 3 (57:42):
I mean, I don't think anyone really.

Speaker 4 (57:43):
Can choose between these two teams, but I think the
public has because it likes Baltimore in this spot line
down to one right now too, So I really truly
believe no one has any idea. I'll leave you with
just a spot play. So for Washington and the Rams,
both one last week is underdogs, both now on short
rest on the road. Those teams are thirty six and

(58:04):
seventy six thirty two percent straight up, including three and
eleven straight up in the playoffs since two thousand and three,
so an upset there by either Washington or the Rams
would truly be odds defying.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
An interesting parlay could be Washington team total over and
Washington to cover, because if the odds are so great
and the trend is so great that teams who score
over that number of seventeen or twenty one, which the
Commanders can acceptably do, and those teams tend to cover,

(58:43):
that's a fun little parlay.

Speaker 3 (58:46):
Yeah. Also, if you're betting the over, like I've talked
about same game parlay, like if you want to throw
in David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown, like, go go
crazy if you're trying to do something crazy like that,
cause obviously, if we're getting to fifty five points, we're
gonna need a lot of touchdowns. Chat. So I know
we will talk a lot about same game parlays. But
this is Zack scenari where you see those dumb tickets

(59:06):
of guy bets ten dollars to win twenty thousand because
he's same game parlayed all these different touchdown scores. That's
basically what we need here if we want to hit
this over so yeah, that's another angle to play in
that game.

Speaker 1 (59:18):
I like having so few games, we can get so
much deeper. As a reminders that f.

Speaker 4 (59:25):
I'll say, I gotta find Tim Patrick on that ticket
as well. That's gonna be a good one this way.

Speaker 2 (59:28):
That's a good idea. I like it.

Speaker 1 (59:31):
I'm writing that down. I got a whole page of
other turn of bets here, all right, Raybond Special, Yeah,
that is that as I'm sure we'll get some of that.
I'm convinced me as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
three six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
and bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up

(59:51):
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bet for five dollars, get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on
spread totals, player props, futures.

Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
And more.

Speaker 1 (01:00:02):
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(01:00:25):
episode of the Favorites on the Action of Work You
two page later than usual reminder later than usual Sunday
night after the Ravens Bills game. To recap all the
divisional round games, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
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