Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 1 bets for Ravens-Bills, 49ers-Seahawks, Giants-Commanders, Raiders-Patriots & more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by hard Rock that
we are part of the Volume podcast network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper and the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad moment. I'm joined
by my co host, my bff, my companion, my confadre,

(00:20):
professional better Simon Hunter Heado, Simon, Chad, how are we doing, dude,
I'll tell you how we're doing. I think we are
pretty overwhelmed by our launch with the Volume. The team
here on the audio and YouTube side did amazing work.

(00:41):
People don't understand like and they shouldn't care at all,
but taking this from a conversation to an actual show
that is launched in the span of a few working
days including a holiday weekend is hercu LeAnn and they
should be commended. It's a truly professional job by the
Volume team. And by the way, we are so grateful

(01:05):
to the folks who came along with us for the ride,
because with very little promo or warning, our audience turned out.
So we have a ton, a ton of gratitude. Even
Simon and his cold calculating heart has a ton of
gratitude where truly appreciated. A couple minor housekeeping things that

(01:28):
I've gotten a lot of questions about audio feeds. The
Sharper square feed should be showing up in Apple and Spotify.
You may have to scroll for a sec to see it.
The sooner you start rating and reviewing, the sooner it
flies up in the search rankings. We did this for
the old show, so we're going to bring it back.
We will read some of the best five star rated

(01:50):
comments on the show, and we're going to give away
some swag. So give us some feedback. Make it easier
to find for everyone. Rate review you subscribe in the app.
In the podcast app for Apple, that means hit the
follow button. Also gotten a lot of questions about a contest.
Because this show came together so quickly, we cannot organize

(02:13):
a contest for this season. Doesn't matter. Simon and I
have always built the show around landing on five picks
that we will put into contests that we play. Simon
likes to call them, you know, all cash contests. I
know a lot of you play pick them contests, So
we will still be finalizing five best bets each week.

(02:33):
We will report our record every Sunday night and update
it on Tuesday, and that is also the point of
the Sunday show in the mornings eleven am Eastern, where
Simon and I. You will be in on the conversation
when Simon and I are debating those final five and
locking them in after the latest line moves, injury updates,
et cetera. Quick reminder, Tuesday and Thursday shows at one

(02:55):
thirty pm Eastern on YouTube and they'll get loaded into
the audio feeds at the same time. We will do
a short show on Sunday mornings at eleven am. I
just discussed it, and then we'll still do the wrap
up show, the look Ahead show on Sunday nights as
soon as the late afternoon game ends around seven thirty. Again,
all of these sharper Square YouTube channel on Apple, podcasts

(03:18):
on Spotify, Go, subscribe, rate, review, et cetera, et cetera.
Also last thing, and then we'll get into it. I
was so excited, Simon for my Chad Loves Love bet
On the Lions. I skipped right over the Niner Seahawks
first show jitters. My bad. Luckily, it's an really important
game for one of our categorized picks, so we will

(03:42):
get to it today. I apologize, but first Simon, we
need to check in with something brand new. It's the
Last Guy Highline.

Speaker 2 (03:53):
Yeah, Chaz.

Speaker 3 (03:54):
A lot of phone calls obviously, you know, people excited
for the first week of the season, and you know,
run around all these sportsbooks talking on these guys, especially
the last twenty four hours. Just so many opinions on
our picks and where we're at and what we like
and we don't like. Let's start with what they hate, right,
Let's just get the bad out out of the way first.
But I kind of knew this first one was coming.

(04:16):
We were on the Commanders. I know a ton of
pros who are the ones betting this Giants number down.
They like this matchup for the Giants. I know all
the stuff about dan Quinn week one. I believe he's
one and four against the spread as a head coach. Okay,
I get it right. Maybe it is a dan quin thing.
He under prepares his team. They struggle in week one.
You know the Giants, though, to me, too much is

(04:37):
being made of the Russell Wilson being their quarterback. Is
if he's going to fix that team. Where I feel
like me and you've dived into it, that offensive line
with the injuries and the bad drafts and everything like that.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Over the years, it's caught up to him.

Speaker 3 (04:49):
They just don't have the offensive line to protect quarterbacks
and have an effective offense. And you know, Neighbors, he's
been banged up coming this matchup as well. So yeah,
that's a game. We'll dive into more, I'm sure, but
that one jumped out right away. The big one I
was really surprised about. But you know, makes sense. I
guess when you really dive into it is that Green
Bay Detroit game, right I.

Speaker 1 (05:09):
Knew you were going to say that.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
I knew you were going.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
To say that.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
I know, and I knew when you were doing it.
I was like, this is the most public dogs.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
You were hesitant, and we're going to dive deeper into it.

Speaker 2 (05:19):
I don't care, I told them, I don't care.

Speaker 3 (05:21):
Like I get where they're coming from, and this in
certain circumstance, I agree with them. But I think we're
both on the same page. And this Green Bay team
is overrated right now. Too much smoke's being pumped up
their asses, and on the flip side, too much hate
is being thrown at those Lions team in disrespect about
the loss of the corners which we agreed with. We
do think they will be taking a step back because
the coordinator losses, but the talent, the talent is so unbelievable.

(05:44):
It's no yeah, but these are wide receivers. The Detroit
guys are established, unlike the Green Bay guys. So again
I'm looking forward to us to diving that one more
because that was again not just one or two phone calls,
a lot of guys being like, don't let Chad take
you down this dark path, and I'm done with them.
I want it, So yeah, I can't wait to break
down that one. For the loves love the Ravens. The

(06:06):
guys love the Ravens, and we've seen that reflect that
this member is flipped at most books. So I still
like it. I'm sure you still like. I still think
it's a good number. But obviously plus one and a
half you can still get that contest. Wise, how do
you not auto play that number? We just will dive
into the Ravens war But that one did not shock me.
The pros love that, you know, the Browns another one

(06:28):
we'll talk about more. They just it's the same thing
we're reviewing that it's just an overinflated line. They're the
same thing as us. I feel like we all feel
the same as we could get a bad Joe Flacco.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
That is our fear, probably with that Browns number.

Speaker 3 (06:41):
I think most pros I've talked to that's the only
thing we're hesitant about. But I was shocked the overwhelming
support about our Browns pick, just because I thought it
was gonna be.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
Again it's a big board. I thought people to avoid.

Speaker 3 (06:53):
This one, but people tend to really love that Browns
pick in the last one the New York Jets, the
love of the Jets.

Speaker 2 (07:00):
It's real. I know you're a little hesitant on it.

Speaker 3 (07:02):
On Tuesday, we'll talk more about it, maybe come around
on it, but the boys love it. Like again, I
was hoping it was getting I didn't want to act
too excited about because I was hoping we would get
a three and a half. It's gone the other way.
The three is gone. So that was a game that
I loved. I was trying to play cool. I think
people could read through it and could see that that's
that's just a nice number in a nice spot for

(07:24):
a team that's gonna be really gritty, And we talked
about it, right, it's Pittsburgh on the road his favorite.
So that's the game. I'm sure we're gonna break down more.
But yeah, again, I forgot to mention this one. The
only other game I really got heat from was that
Falcons Bucks game, so we can talk about that one
as well. But again, I knew that was chalk coming
in like that's a public play for sure. The number

(07:44):
has now come down, I believe to one and a
half in most books. So yeah, money's coming on to
Atlanta team. But I'm excited to see where you saying
still on this Thursday show with that game.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah, I haven't chased it yet, but I do want
to dig into it. And I'm surprised. Let's let's get
into all the games that we were sort of of
trying to narrow down to and do a little bit
more research on. I'm surprised no one mentioned the Raiders
and the Patriots, And to me, I said it on Tuesday.

(08:14):
Discipline is the name of the game here, assignmon. If
we are doing our Sunday morning show and we are
talking ourselves into betting the Raiders at plus two and
a half, shame on us. Now, between the time we
did our show on Tuesday and today the line did
move up to three for a hot second, I grabbed

(08:34):
it at plus three, the only two bets I've really
made so far, Browns and Raiders, and because I'm still
nervous about the rest of them.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
Oh man, I know, but.

Speaker 1 (08:49):
I mean, look, the Patriots are getting so much hype
right now. I'm getting alerts from ESPN NFL insiders talking
about the Patriots as a playoff team. Are you guys
kidding me? Like, if this gets a three, it's a
no brainer, zero zero concerns.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
I'm with you. I like the number. I told you.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
I'm not trying to get too attached to like I
have my mentality of I'm gonna have times where I'm
going to be able to ride with this Raiders team
in better spots in the flip side of the Patriots.
I hope, honestly they win this game, even though I
am on the Raiders plus three because our week two
line that's gonna get like you just said, the media hype,
we're gonna get a two or three free point bump,

(09:32):
which again we're both I feel like in lockstep here
of this Patriots team that I think they'll be better,
But I think it is overinflated the hype and you
know it's gotten too far this other way. And you know,
big thing people are talking about is Chris Gonzalez. You
know they're number one, shut down corner, little banged up
that's huge in this matchup that I mean, let's let's
face it, the Raiders, they're not beating people with defense

(09:54):
this year. They're beating people because they're gonna have a
high powered offense. That's the hope with Gino here. So yeah,
I'm just I told you I'm trying to get suck
to it, suck too much into this game because I
am so high on this Raiders team, and like you said,
the plus three we got to take it. So I
don't know if we'll take a contest because I believe
it will be two and a half almost at all

(10:15):
contest lines. But you know we could get lucky, right
if Gonzales gets cleared, you know, late line movement, this
could get to three, three and a half. So we'll see,
because I do think he is worth half a point
to this Patriot's number, like that sound important? He is
as a lockdown corner, he takes away half the field,
So yeah, to me, that's a big thing if you're
waiting on If you're like chat here and you already

(10:36):
got the three, you can just be patient now and
wait on it.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
You got the best number.

Speaker 3 (10:41):
If you're out there and you're still stuck at two
and a half of your main book and you can't
shop around, your state doesn't work that way.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
That's the only book you can really use. Just wait,
be patient.

Speaker 3 (10:49):
If Gonzales gets cleared, I guarantee you this will get
back to three.

Speaker 1 (10:53):
We need a late run. We need a late run
from the market on the Patriots, all right, Cincinnati at Cleveland.
This number at the hard Rock is five, and it's
been moving in that direction pretty much all week. And
this was your as Simon says, I love it too.
I think it's going to make our contest play likely

(11:15):
at five and a half or five, no matter what
the contest line is. I asked you the other day,
what do we have to do? And this is before
I knew it was going to be your Simon says,
I just knew that I was targeting this game as
a Chad loves Love before you stole my heart? What
do we have to believe to bet the Browns, which

(11:38):
is essentially asking what do we think the narrative for
this game is going to be? And we know what
Kevin Stefanski wants the narrative for this game to be.
We know he wants his pass rush to dominate Gate
dominating it's a terrible offensive line. We know he wants
his veteran quarterback to play within the system, which when
he has quarterbacks who can play within his system, Kevin

(12:00):
Stevanski has proven to be very successful, and we know
he's going to run the ball and Jerome Ford is
a running back who's going to get most of the carries.
He was one of the most explosive backs in the
NFL last year. So while he's not a household name,
there is quality in the backfield. I can't find a
reason not to like the Browns. I just feel like

(12:22):
I like him more and more.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
Actually, yeah, I'll just start it right from the top.

Speaker 3 (12:25):
If people don't remember, I'm gonna beach to the death
of this trend twenty four to seven against the spread,
seventy seven percent since two thousand and nine home divisional dogs.
So it's it's it's the history. The historical data backs
it up. But we're also talking about how we like
this matchup. That's where like people are not I think
are overlooking here. What Chad is noiled is it's a

(12:45):
huge discrepancy between the D line and the O line
of this Cleveland Brown's defense compared to the Cincinnati Bengals
offensive line. And I agree there's ways they can encounter, right,
they can start running quick passes, screens and other things
like that. But when I turn it the other way,
like Chad just talked about with Flak in the Stefanski offense,
we saw them be successful. They made it to the
playoffs together, and when you look at it, it's an

(13:06):
offense that when it's balanced, it's at its best. Right,
they need want to be a team that can run
the ball, And do I know Ford's the answer, I don't,
But they also have you know, they have two different
rookies they drafted. We don't know who's gonna be the
guy there, but I think there's gonna be a semblance
of a run game. Then when they really didn't have
that last year, they had no run game because they
really did not have a pass can that pushed the
ball downfield.

Speaker 2 (13:26):
They do that.

Speaker 3 (13:26):
They have that now Flaco and the fact that Jerry,
Judy and Tillman are two guys on the outside I
think are really talented and they have a good tight end.
It all works for me with this clean team. That's
why again I like they're over four and a half
win total. It's like they're not as bad as people receive,
especially when you know a veteran in the early Flacco
where me and Chatter can be sweating right when he
throws that first pick in the first quarter, it's gonna

(13:48):
be brutal. But unlike a rookie who just creators in
on themselves, Flecco doesn't care. It's just another day at
the office for Joe Flacco. He does not care. So
to me, that's another thing I like about it, where
it's like he can old with the punches. He's the
type of guy who's been here before and he won't
get flustered by the Bengals in this moment. So, yeah,
you know home dog. In this spot, it's it was six.

(14:10):
Shout out to the fans. Listen to the show, and
we were able to get the six went to five
and a half. Now here we are twenty four to
forty hours later, and now it's down to five at
most books, so people can tell what the professionals like.
And yeah, the public again talking to book makers. This
is another money line teaser. Heavily bet team in the
Bengals that you know, people just think it's a guarantee winning.

Speaker 2 (14:31):
We know the deal. Joe Burrow. I believe he's one
and four straight up in week one game.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
So it's just something the struggled with and they're trying
to combat it having him play in the preseason. But
I think the number is still two over inflating. He
might win this game, but I think will be by
you know, less than three.

Speaker 1 (14:48):
Good old battered Flaco. He's so old now he actually
is battered Flaco. Shout out Scooch and all the old
heads who have been listening to the show since the
ESPN days. New York Giants at Washington, you mentioned this
is a game that on the Wise Guy Hotline they

(15:10):
were not fans of our conversation about this game, in
which we liked Washington at the time, Washington was six.
The lines move in the other direction, Simon, you can
check in your app. Hard Rock. I think is now
down to five in this game. Like we know every year,
we want to be thoughtful about not over indexing indexing

(15:34):
on the Dogs and the Commanders were trending to be
one of the teams that you know comes Sunday like,
if circumstances played out we needed another game, they might
be a favorite that we like. I get what the
wise guys are saying, but I look at this Giants team,

(15:57):
and you said something really important the other day. As
good as their defensive line is Brian Burns and Dexter
Lawrence and after a Carter right, that's amazing. But Jayden
Daniels isn't the kind of quarterback who gets flustered in

(16:19):
the pocket. He's normally the kind of quarterback who finds
a way to escape via a lane on an over
aggressive pass rush, which I think kind of plays into
the strengths. Either these guys are going to have to
be really disciplined, or if they aren't, he's going to
take advantage of that. So I like that, as you

(16:40):
said the other day. But also, Andrew Thomas is still
not fully back from his Liz Frank injury. He was
limited in practice on Wednesday. There has not been confirmation
of what his status is going to be for the game.
He might play, but he might not be full strength.
This team cratered without Andrew Thomas last year, So I

(17:02):
get what the wise guys you're thinking. It's a big
number for a division dog, but this team is on
the road and sometimes you got to bet the talent
and the scheme a little bit. So I'm not hating
this game as the number gets smaller and smaller.

Speaker 3 (17:15):
Yeah, I think it's just a classic case of the
numbers moved too much for me where I agreed with them.
If this was six and a half, six, I could
be talked into the Giants at that number. But like
you said, now it's down to five. We're getting close
to a four and a half territory. That's that's where
the value is going to be. So to me, I
have this game at six and a half. I talked

(17:35):
to pros, we have this a four and a half.
So I'm you know, two point difference is a big
deal when you're when you're booking these games.

Speaker 2 (17:40):
So I get where.

Speaker 3 (17:42):
They're coming from in these spots, but I view it
as this Commander's team. They are going to struggle this season,
in my opinion, against really good and well talented teams.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
This is not it.

Speaker 3 (17:53):
This is not the type of game they struggle where, yeah, Chad,
we might have a couple fourth down stinkers that we
talked about coming with this Washington team, and the regression
is going to come. So sure, they could go for
it on their own forty on their first opening drive
and it goes the other way. But it's something where
I like betting Daniels like we did last year, yeah,
is that they won't change who they are. They're going

(18:15):
to keep doing what they do. So it's like, Okay,
they didn't work that one time. If they can go
with which they we're doing last year, three for four
and fourth downs, they're going to win the games. And
usually that's what happens, especially last season. So what we're
looking at this year is just you know, I told
you my pause on this is that whole dan Quinn
thing that he does.

Speaker 2 (18:35):
His team's historically have struggled in the past.

Speaker 3 (18:37):
In his Week one I went back watched, you know,
a really condensed version of that Jane Daniels Bucks game
last year.

Speaker 2 (18:44):
Just to see what the deal was.

Speaker 3 (18:46):
And to me, it was just a guy's first start
on the road in Week one as a rookie quarterback,
and it's like, I don't know how much I could
take away from this and blame Dan Quinn for this
being a not having team prepared in this exact match.

Speaker 2 (18:58):
Even know defense did struggle. We learned later on.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
That Book's offense was really high powered, So you know,
I'm not trying to take too much away from it.
I'm trying to steadfast with Chad here on this Commander's team,
but people can see I'm waiving a little bit. There's
other favorites I do like, but then this number keeps moving,
my confidence keeps growing where it's like, Okay, if you
give me four and a half on the Commanders here,
I'm gonna hit it pretty heavy.

Speaker 2 (19:21):
So it is a tough spot.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Simon comes Sunday. I just wrote this down. I don't
know how we're not going to have a conversation about
the Commanders because this number is trending in a direction
where it's going to be pretty hard to ignore playing
the four and a half point favorite on a number
that has moved full two points for what is just
a much better team. All right, Carolina Jacksonville. I was

(19:48):
kind of glad that the wise guys didn't mention Carolina
Jacksonville in sort of the hotline. This game was at
three and a half. I left this game in. I
don't think we're going to bet it like we owe
it to people to close out the Panthers conversation. Tell

(20:10):
people that we are not putting in in the contest.
We may not even bet them. I think they've got
huge issues with wide receiver depth and health and experience
and targets that can make Bryce Young comfortable. I think
they've got issues with the defense. Derek Brown is back,

(20:30):
he missed all of last season. He can be a
game changer in the run game, but we have no
idea if he's going to be healthy. Mis's the entire
season with an injured knee. So that hook is just
it's like, you know when you're watching vaudeville and they
got that big wooden stick with the hook at the
end and they grab the performer by the neck and

(20:53):
pull them back to the stage. That hook is like
grabbing me and trying to get me back, and I
just want someone to talk me out of it. I
want you to talk me out of this.

Speaker 3 (21:03):
Yeah, I would say it's actually a shaky chad. There
has been convo about this game. I would say a
lot of the pros I've talked to they like Jacksonville.
I think they like them because of what they believe
they're going to be, like, you know, this season, all
of them I think on the same But as you right,
I think in the preseason you talk about how you
like them to win this division.

Speaker 2 (21:22):
You know, AFC South.

Speaker 3 (21:24):
They're a sleeper team that a lot of pros like
because they believe you're bringing an offensive genius with all
the weapons. You know, should take Trevor Lawrence, a guy
we both respected coming out of college.

Speaker 2 (21:35):
And just as I lived up to that hype.

Speaker 3 (21:38):
This could all be it right, it's all lined up
for them. So you already talked about there's a there's
areas of talent discrepancy here, Like Jacksonville is better team overall.

Speaker 2 (21:45):
They're better defensively at certain positions.

Speaker 3 (21:48):
Offensively, they're a more complete team, you know.

Speaker 2 (21:51):
Better weapons.

Speaker 3 (21:52):
So I agree with you, like I'm I'm happy that
we can actually stay away from this one because I
am like you. It's like, I really want to take
the three and a half because it's Stillville. At the
end of the day, it is the Jaguars, and you know,
they could easily just melt under this new offensive system
and have you know total dysfunction Where this is year
two for Bryce shawng in this offense, he should be

(22:12):
way more comfortable and prepared in this exact spot. So
to me, all the factors of it, it's like, I'm
happy we're alh forceing this winning because again, there's other games.
It's my first Sunday of the year. I want to
be watching other games than Panthers Jaguars. So I'm happy
we can skip this one so I can enjoy my
Browns and Bengals.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
I don't know, Like I know you said you've got
thousands and thousands of bets already. I feel like I
want to go a little bit lighter in week one,
Like it's so unknown. I've got a lot of opinions,
but nothing is backed up by real data and what
my eyes have seen yet. So I feel like, even
though I've got games I love, I'm playing a little

(22:50):
bit more conservative. By the way, Travis Hunter will be
starting a wide receiver. His current total are four and
a half receptions forty seven and a half receiving yards.
You are a sneaky good player. Prop better we don't
talk about it. A ton just because we focus so

(23:12):
much on side. Do you have any opinions on Travis
Hunter and his receiving total and his reception total and
his receiving are total.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
I don't know what to say.

Speaker 3 (23:24):
I feel like I'm just such a hater of him,
and I hate that I'm a hater because I want
him to I want it to work out.

Speaker 2 (23:28):
But no, you can't. I would.

Speaker 3 (23:31):
I would not be betting any over of his props,
any of that stuff. I still think it's I don't
even know if they totally know what they're doing with
them yet, where they're like, we got this insane weapon,
but we don't know how to use it because it's
it's never been done before.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
And again my opinion has been shared, there's I just don't.

Speaker 3 (23:48):
Think it works. There's no way it works. He doesn't
have the body frame for it doesn't. I just I
can't see it working him laying hits and taking hits
for a full season the way his body is built currently.
It doesn't. It doesn't make sense. That's why all these
people are comparing to Otani. If you guys ever seen Otani,
This dude is six six. It looks like in just

(24:10):
three hundred pounds of muscle. Like, it's just a different world.
So I'm excited for him, but yeah, for me being
the guy IM, I'll take his underprop, but I will
bet his touchdown prop because certain books you can finagle it.
Some books do have fine writing. If you get to
pick six, it counts towards the defense. Some books don't though.

(24:31):
Some some books will count of pick six as a touchdown.
So it's just an extra edge to play. If he
is going to play a couple of reps at cornerback,
I'll take that upside for week one.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
It's just a fun bet to make.

Speaker 3 (24:41):
But he has the hatering me. Yes, under four and
a half. I just do not think he'll be the
number one focal point of this offense. I still think
it's Brian Thompson Junior.

Speaker 1 (24:49):
Brian Thomas good, look, good, good, lesson study the house rules.
I'm putting Miami and Indy in there right now. It's
a minus one at you might as wanted hard rock bet.
I know we aren't doing it. I just want to
know if I could tempt you like the line is moving.
Remember it was at one and a half. There's some

(25:10):
places where it's at a half right now, it's moving
in the Dolphins direction. Anything about this in which I
could tempt you? Do you think everything is just this
is so public, it's so sad that I'm even bringing
it up.

Speaker 3 (25:27):
Yeah, and shockingly though no one's no pros I know
really are pounding the table for Daniel Jones. Is this
cold team? I know a couple guys I like them,
like me season long. Like we talked about how I thought,
you know, if they take Daniel Jones over Anthony Richerson
just for this season, yeah, I think that's better as
a better I don't think it's long term better for
your franchise, but yeah, for me, looking at this line,

(25:48):
it's it's the classic case of I'm with you, Chad
that It's it's Miami indoors facing a team that I
don't know if they can expose their weakness. Miami's bigger
weakness is the offensive line could be an absolute train wreck,
and their secondary like just two things that are I mean,
everyone's model is different. My model has them both as

(26:10):
bottom thirty, so like thirty one thirty two. That's what
I'm great at. Their offensive line, they're defensive backs.

Speaker 2 (26:17):
Could that change? Obviously after Week one.

Speaker 3 (26:19):
Right, if this new offensive line puts it together and
actually work well together, that does happen.

Speaker 2 (26:25):
D backs not so much.

Speaker 3 (26:26):
Usually these guys are what they are, right, especially a
team like them who they're all in the market shopping
defensive backs. But again we're talking about can the Colts
expose that? I don't think so, So I'm getting there
with you, chatw It's like, this is the type of
matchup to indoors in a controlled environment against a defense
that can be passed on. Everyone's healthy, he's healthy. You

(26:47):
can get me there if you want to make it
one of your picks, but it would not be one
of mine. So that's where that's where a little differ.
But yeah, I got no money invested in this game yet.
I'm undecided, but I'm leaning way more towards Miami side
than I was Colts a couple weeks ago.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
All Right, well, guess what Miami is going on the
list to talk about on Sunday morning? Baby, We're doing
it could be in there, Simon. We are crazy excited
to announce our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock. Bet. I
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(29:36):
over there. They're fantastic group and they're they're crushing it
all right. Pittsburgh at New York Jets, this game was
at three. We were talking about it on Tuesday. Guess what,
As you mentioned Simon right now at hard Rock Bet,
it said Jets plus two and a half. The wise
guys have come running for that three. Lush, I can't

(30:02):
argue with you. I'm leaning that way. It just feels
like the move to make just to question what the
line is going to be for us on Sunday when
we make the picks. But what do you think of
it at two and a half.

Speaker 3 (30:16):
I still play it still, We'll still play at two
and a half, but obviously we'd love it at three
because that's that's the safest number. But it's just a
matchup of two teams that I think the general public
and bookmakers come into the season, viewed them differently, and
their win towards reflected that.

Speaker 2 (30:34):
Where I've talked.

Speaker 3 (30:35):
About it, like them the Jets, the Patriots to Pittsburgh,
all these teams, to me, they're all the same team,
like they all have strengths and glaring weaknesses and it's
all gonna come down a coach editor, Right. That's why
Tomlin's the unicorn of getting his bad teams the nine
and eight, And like I get it, their fans are
sick of it in Pittsburgh, but you talk to about

(30:57):
eighty percent of football fan bases, they will take that
Timelin existence every time, because yes, we all.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
Want to win playoff games in Super Bowls.

Speaker 3 (31:05):
But ind of the day, you just want a competitive
team that wins games and makes the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (31:09):
Like that's that's the goal from us all these teams
the end of the day.

Speaker 3 (31:12):
So looking at just this matchup, you know the three,
I love that number.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
I did not think it was gonna come down.

Speaker 3 (31:20):
I just I didn't really think pros would put heavy
money into this game because the unknown.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
It's just so much unknown right now about this Jets team.

Speaker 3 (31:28):
Where you know, I felt confidently professional betters would take
Pittsburgh and they would take it at this exact number
two and a half, like they I thought some guys
got as soon as I saw this move. I reach
out to people because people don't understand a lot of
line movement is fake. It's not fake, but it is
where it's like guys will come in on one side,
move a number, and then bet really really heavy on

(31:50):
the other side, and that happens more often than you'd believe.

Speaker 2 (31:53):
This is not one of the circumstances which I honestly
thought I was going to be.

Speaker 3 (31:58):
It's it's now been about twenty four hours, it's been
stuck at two and a half. So yeah, I think
we might be able to get back to three each
at but I do think more professional money will come
in on this Jets team to get closer, just because
so many things line up for this team where they
do have a good defense matchup wise against what this
Pittsburgh offense wants to do. And then you know, say

(32:18):
what you want about Pittsburgh, their defense can be mitigated.
You know, TJ can be mitigated if you can run
the ball and you have a running quarterback, Like, there's
ways to attack them with that exact style of offense.
So yeah, a game that I think people weren't excited
to watch, but.

Speaker 2 (32:34):
Someone like me, I really love this game. I love this.

Speaker 3 (32:37):
Matchup, but it's gonna be in the four box like
Justin Field's revenge game, Aaron Rodgers revenge game. Yeah, that's
the media talk of this me. It's it's Aaron Glenn
versus Tomlin. Like, I love these two head coaches and
I'm excited to see this step a matchup because I
just can't get over how good Aaron Glenn was defensively
with that Lion's team and now he's got, you know,
just as good as weapons here with this jetsam excited

(32:58):
to see what we can do, especially in this So, yeah,
chet another game where I don't know if we'll get there. Like,
I don't know how confident I am doing two and
a half in our contest. But people betting wise three,
you have to grab that three if you pops and
you're just you're with us that this is going to
be type of game. It's gonna be ugly, it's gonna
be growing. No one's winning this game by more than

(33:18):
three Jets or Pittsburgh. So I think three is such
a key number in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
Yeah, I like, we're not going to get emotional about
these things on Sunday, and we're not gonna get lazy,
and we're going to remember all of our notes. I'm
making all the notes. We're gonna remember every conversation. We're
not gonna let like a late line move or a
late injury or a late noise distract us like late
wise guy conversations that are happening in the sports book

(33:46):
at three thirty in the morning on Sunday. We're not
getting distracted Simon. Okay, I'm putting the Jets down, but
we're only doing it if it gets to plus three.
I want to bring these next two games together, want
to pair them appropriately because they are both in play
for a bet that would require some serious cohonas, and

(34:11):
we're gonna have to make a call based on one
of these two games. First one up Tennessee plus eight
right now at heart Rock Bet at Denver. I hate
this game. I feel like this is a game where
wise guys are telling me I have to do it,
even though it's ugly and scary, and for years I

(34:32):
would have auto played this for the Titans. But I
do feel like I needed least something I like about
the team matchup. Wise, I like things about the Browns
against the Bengals. I like things about the Raiders against
the Patriots. I don't know that I like a rookie
QB against a great defense in altitude. First first game.

(34:57):
It feels like a recipe for disaster. You keep hammering
me about it. It has moved in the direction of
the Titans because the line has come down after going high,
peaking at eight and a half, biggest number of the week.
Can we just talk about this for a second as friends,
as compatriots, as partners.

Speaker 3 (35:19):
Yeah, hopefully the public gets us back to day and
a half bet more teasers.

Speaker 2 (35:22):
People keep keep lowing up on Denver. I'm joining you.

Speaker 3 (35:24):
I told you, I'm putting them in my Survivor. So
I think Denver's winning this game. But you know, to me,
the biggest thing jumps out right away. Chat if I
can give you some trends the easier mind, because you
said you don't know what to do week one, right,
there's too much unknown. You gotta trust the numbers. Long
term winners, baby, that's what we're giving out here. It
might feel gross, it looks gross, but it's how I

(35:45):
make a living. Long term winners. They say, long term winner. Okay,
last twenty years. Let's go last twenty years. Is that
enough time for you?

Speaker 2 (35:54):
Chat? Twenty years of data year?

Speaker 1 (35:56):
You know what? It's actually whatever you're going to say,
I don't know that it matters because the NFL changes
so much.

Speaker 2 (36:02):
It doesn't.

Speaker 1 (36:02):
It does everything from twenty seventeen when they moved the
extra point back and people started going for two point
conversions more everything, since twenty twenty when people started getting
more aggressive, like the kickoff rule from last year. The
game that we played today, that we watched today is
just different than even the game from fifteen years ago.

Speaker 3 (36:23):
But god, if you go back trend all these coaches
were going for it on fourth down. They didn't reinvent
the wheel lately. Chad, you're overrating how aggressive teams are.
Last twenty years Dogs eight plus eight plus ten seventy
three percent the last twenty years, nineteen and seven, Week one,

(36:44):
nineteen and seven, Chad, So week one, Yeah, in week one.

Speaker 1 (36:48):
How many of those Dogs had a rookie number one
overall quarterback? Because I know those guys have gone I
think one in fifteen against This.

Speaker 3 (37:00):
Is why I feel bad for you, Chad. You you
sound like a sucker. I literally won. I had Ryan
Fitzpatrick on Tampa plus fourteen against the Saints and Drew Brees.
He won outright with Tampa. Okay, So like, don't give
me all this nonsense where you can't see the things happen.
It's week one, brother, Shit's about to get weird. That's

(37:20):
what you need to lean into here where it's like, yes,
if this was week nine, I agree with you. When
Denver is on a roll and everything's clicking, I agree
with you. You are fading a rookie who went eight to
oh as a favorite last season, perfect and you're betting
on a team that went two and five against the spread.

Speaker 2 (37:39):
They are left for dead.

Speaker 1 (37:41):
By the way, I'm going to give you two and
fifteen against the spread.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
Yeah, every book maker I talked to, ninety five percent
of the money the money is on Denver in the spread.

Speaker 2 (37:51):
So, like, what are we debating here?

Speaker 3 (37:53):
It's you want to weigh a long term winner, you
want to bet with the sports books?

Speaker 1 (38:00):
You know what, Simon, you know what, it's already week one.
I want to put Tennessee in the context only because
you have to own it. Were you're going to own
it and on Sunday night we're going to talk.

Speaker 3 (38:15):
About Itboys the Cowboys a ready and a half. You're
betting the Cowboys for the same exact reason. It's a
huge inflated number on a heavily overrated inflated teams. It's
literally that simple. We're not again, not trying to reinvent
the wheel here. It's data, numbers, trends that back it up.
And you said you need matchups for Tennessee. Okay, Denver,

(38:37):
this amazing defense. Historically they always regress in the history.
So twenty five years of data, teams like them that
finish top three defensively, every single one the last twenty
five years is regressed except Tomlin one year with that
Steelers defense. They're the only defense ever to improve from

(38:57):
being a top three defense to a number two defense.
Follow it just so Denver's defense, that's gonna be the
biggest thing right away. They will regress. Game Ward, he
could be dog shit, he could throw a pick. That's
not gonna be that shocking. He will not be Will Levis,
who all he does is go three and out or
throw picks. Game Ward will eventually get into a rhythm.
He'll be able to move the ball against ever team. So, yes, Chad,

(39:20):
they're the worst team in football at Denver is obviously
one of the better teams in football. I get your hesitation.
They could blow out Tennessee. That's why we're taking them
a survivor. I'm just telling you this number should be seven.
It's eight eight and a half. You gotta bet that value.
That's an inflated line. You have to take that number, all.

Speaker 1 (39:36):
Right, Simon. You know what we're doing it this year.
We're changing it up a little bit. It's not enough
to have big balls, because even when you have big balls,
if you get kicked in the dick, like we're going
to with this game, you need to have brass balls.
So here we go. This week our brass balls better

(39:57):
the week Tennessee Titans plus eight against the Denver Broncos.
And we're putting this in the freaking contest, brother, and
we're gonna and if it wins, all the flowers for Simon.

Speaker 3 (40:14):
So there's honestly only one spy left because the next
three games we're going to talk about Chad. I'm I'm
I Basically people don't know I'm running the contest finally
again this year, I'm making our picks Chad had the
last two years. It's back to Simon making the picks.

Speaker 1 (40:26):
What he means is like Simon gets to actually put
the picks into the your.

Speaker 3 (40:30):
Chad say why to me on Sundays anymore? Like I
can't tell you how many times I want to break
this guy's next around game And he goes, why why
because the earth spins.

Speaker 2 (40:41):
I don't know why, Chad, But yes, listen.

Speaker 1 (40:44):
I'm inquisitive, and I try to set an example for
my kids to ask questions, you know, when they don't
know the answers. So listen, I don't want to skip
San Francisco and Seattle again.

Speaker 2 (40:53):
So this was good.

Speaker 1 (40:54):
This was also a game that was on our Brass
Balls list, and I apologize again that I missed this.
I slid right over it. It's just basically been sitting
at the Niners at two and a half. It's a
two now at hard Rock Bets. So some money coming
in on Seattle and Simon, I know that you've gotten

(41:15):
some intel about the wise guys liking the Seahawks for
pretty big money here. I need some I need someone
to talk me off of the Niners because I know
I'm biased. I know I'm heavily invested in them for
the Super Bowl futures. I'm against Sam Darnold. I love
Robert Sala being back and coaching this defense. So go ahead.

(41:39):
I know you loved I know you love the Seahawks. Here,
tell the people why.

Speaker 3 (41:43):
And I'm checking hart Rech right now because I just
kind of alert. Yeah, it's back up at two and
a half. So obviously there is some four Niners money
out there. And me and Cha had agree, like we
like this fort Niners this upcoming season, season long, and
I think they're a team that's well positioned. You know,
one solid coaches up these young guys on the defensive side,

(42:03):
they could be really good. This is a bad spot
for them to be trying to get coached up right.
We've seen Kubiak, the offensive coordinator of this Seahawks team,
be successful really early in the season last year with
that New Orleans team, right when Orland's healthy. I mean,
they're putting up forty points a game before their OW
line got banged up in car got banged up, like
that offense was moving the ball. I came into the

(42:24):
year kind of being a Seahawks hater because of their
O line. I've really turned the page on them the
way I've seen them play in preseason and everything I've
read from their beat riders where it's like, you know,
they've really done a lot of work between the draft
agency and trying to build out this O line because
they knew it was one of the worst units in
all football last season. You're bringing Sam Darnold, who needs

(42:45):
a good old line to survive. They're bringing Kubiak just
because they said, Okay, if we don't have the best
offensive line, let's be a run team that can you know,
push a ball downfield as well, which is literally what
he does. He wants to draw the safeties in and
take you up, take it off over top, Like that's
lazy way to say.

Speaker 2 (43:03):
That's how Kobe kind of wants to run his offense.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
And to me, when I break it down, this is
a match with the favorites, I'm like, I think they'll
be able to run the ball really well against his
foreign airs team, and then the defensive side. I kind
of love this matchup for the Seahawks against Party where
pretty surprisingly he's done really well against Seattle. I think
he's undefeated playing against him. I think he's three to
zero in Seattle as a starter, but in week one

(43:28):
Shanahan's actually struggle as a coach, and I do think
it's because the offense needs is a rhythm based offense.
And I think at the end of the day, you know,
I know, they just signed Jenny Zen like that and
he's they're coming back, so at least they will have
two pretty solid receivers Kittles healthy McCaffrey's there. This usually
would be a smash spot for me with this team,
but just the fact that it's all in a road

(43:49):
against Seattle team that historically I think They're thirty and
six in the first three games at home. That's that's
a team that just usually wins even when they've had
bad teams at home in the first couple because they're
just so dynamic with that offense. And obviously, you know,
we're really banking here on Sam Darnold, So two and
a half, I'm not honestly comfortable here. I was worried

(44:09):
we're gonna come on, the show's gonna be one and
a half, and that that to me, would have been
a no play.

Speaker 2 (44:13):
Like people know, if you listen.

Speaker 3 (44:14):
To the show before, how much I love the number
two and how much the NFL has changed now we're
two and a half is such a key number. So yeah,
to me, Chet, I'm still confident about it. A guy
I really respect. You know, he doesn't work with any
betting groups. He's just alone better that works with bookmakers
trying to get his money down. He hit this line
for fifty K, so he hit the Seahawks for fifty

(44:35):
kN and that's where I thought the number was gonna
come down, because this guy does move numbers. It doesn't
sound like a big bet, but this guy does have
weight behind his betting numbers. So you know, to me,
I already kind of like the Seahawks here, knowing a
guy I really respect coming on the same side as me.
And once again the home divisional dog trends twenty four
and seven in week one that.

Speaker 2 (44:57):
Backs of the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (44:58):
Is this exact spot where it's like, I could see
the four nine ers winning this game somehow at the end,
but it just feels like it's a number that's a
little inflated, like one and a half.

Speaker 2 (45:06):
That was the right number to me.

Speaker 3 (45:08):
Still a two and a half, that's the good vuye
across the key number on the sea Hawks team.

Speaker 1 (45:12):
Not a huge margin for air in this game, not
a huge one like I put it on the list.
It's not going to be.

Speaker 3 (45:20):
They take it heavily on Kubiak and thus run blocking
scheme working.

Speaker 1 (45:25):
For We're we're forcing ourselves to believe in things unseen
at this point.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
A lot of these teams. Though, to be fair, it is.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
Like the Tennessee Titans and the brass Balls better the
week that we just made. I actually feel better with
the Titans being our brass balls bet than with Seattle.
The Chad Loves Love bet was Detroit plus two and
a half and that number is now at hard Rock
Bet down to two. Uh so, you know, moving in

(45:59):
my direction. The wise guys came in and in the
hotline they talked about how much they liked Green Bay more.
I get it. Here's my theory is that this line
got moved too much by Micah Parsons, who's taken injections
in his back and is limited in practice and hasn't
done training camp and has barely been with this new team.

(46:23):
So why are they getting a full point of value
for a guy who we don't even know how many
snaps he's going to take if he plays at all.
That's to me the reason why I'm I'm playing alliance here.

Speaker 3 (46:36):
Yeah, I'm confident with you in the same spect that that,
like my only pause here would be you know, the
Detroit could come out and rhythm with the scripted plays.
I'm not worried about the first fifteen to twenty plays,
but it's after that that's my hesitation because that's the
unknown here with this Detroit team in this offense, Like

(46:56):
how is golf going to be? He went from McVeigh
his year to Ben Johnson, which we know now right
in the future, we know, looking back might be too.
Some of the best offensive minds in all football. We
don't know if he's not that same thing. So like
I get the professionals hesitation because Lafleur love. They know
exactly what they're getting there like that, Like again, love

(47:20):
no excuse.

Speaker 2 (47:21):
I mean people say we're too hard on him.

Speaker 3 (47:23):
We us being hard on him is the fact that
he played nine good games and got an insane amount
of money and then last year.

Speaker 2 (47:30):
You know, I don't put it on.

Speaker 3 (47:31):
Him as much as other people do because he got
banged up that week one game in Brazil and then
the injuries just kept happening rain only to him throughout
the season.

Speaker 2 (47:39):
Maybe that's something I'll plague them all year.

Speaker 3 (47:40):
But right now, his only injury it was his non
throwing hand, and it seems like he's been back fire
practicing with that no problem. You know, their wide receiver room.
That's the biggest question about Green Bay to me right now.
Right they're golden kid. He might be an absolute stud.
He might put their number one receiver. What do they
have behind him? Right They have so many injuries behind
him right now, and you know, I think read at

(48:01):
planner fasci Ice ice or something crazy dealing with like
injuries that he's going to play through it the whole season.
But like that's a major red flag right there. And
you know, a guy I love, Tucker Kraft, is fully healthy.
That's a big deal obviously at the tin of position.
But you know, overall, I just think Detroit defensively, they
have the athletes, they have the talent, maybe arguably the
best safety Tannema all football. Aden hel just said, I

(48:24):
know we were joking about it, but you know his
sacked total PROP was thirteen and a half. Fourteen felt
too high for me, right, I would take that under
There's no sense that he can't come in here and
still be a game record. Right if he comes back
and he is at eighty eighty five percent, I mean
it's one of the best passers in all football.

Speaker 2 (48:41):
That is a big deal because you.

Speaker 3 (48:43):
Know, Green Bay their strength to me, when I really
break it down, it is that old line like that
aligned with Josh Jacobs. That's the reason that all identity
of that team was so strong. So yeah, I'm really
excited for this matchup just because Green Bay one and
five last year in their division, like that was their.

Speaker 2 (49:00):
Achilles heel Detroit.

Speaker 3 (49:03):
Me and Chad, we're banking honestly on good coaching with
Campbell here and just the fact that he can hold
this all together and that you know, the OC that's
stepping in here.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
He was the understudy of Ben Johnson all this time.

Speaker 3 (49:14):
He I think, is going to be a guy that
could show up and be next year on everyone's radar.
Is the next hot topic come being the next head coach.
So I think we're in lockstep here. Of it's about
the number right, two and a half in our contest
plus two. We love it if this numbers had a pick, right,
if this moves all the way back to a pick,

(49:34):
or Detroit flips to being a favorite, like we've seen
these lines flipping. Now, I don't know if we love
it as much right because we're kind playing the value
where we're still on Detroit. We still think they're gonna
win this game. But at the two to two and
a half, Like when Chad gave it out, it didn't
make me feel a little sick to my stomach because
I new Chalky it was.

Speaker 2 (49:49):
But it really was about the number.

Speaker 3 (49:50):
It's like we're getting a loaded Detroit team is a
plus and two and a half dog against an over
hyped Green Bay team right there, everyone's darling right now,
everyone's super Bowl pick. It's just they're just another team
where the love affairs going too high, and yeah, could
they win this one? The pros will be right right
that this is a huge deal that Aaron Glenn left
and Ben Johnson get to me and Chad overlooked at

(50:12):
We'll own that on Monday if it's true. But as
you say here right now, I just have a ton
of confidence in the structure of that Detroit team, and
this is not the type of game I think they'll
trip up, and there'll be other matchups they will, but
I honestly I think they have a big, big offensive
matchup that they can exploit here in the secondary of
green Bay. And defensively, I think people are underrat how
good of a defensive stars they have on this Detroit team.

Speaker 2 (50:34):
Fully healthy.

Speaker 1 (50:35):
I love when you and I are aligned, and it
gives me confidence. It makes me feel better about myself
and also means that we can put it in the
contest and I'm not going to feel as guilty if
it loses the way you will. About the Tennessee Titans.
Baltimore is visiting Buffalo at hard Rock Bet, the Ravens

(50:59):
are now a one point favorite. That's a big move, folks,
because when we did the show on Tuesday, they were
one and a half point underdogs, which means the Baltimore
Ravens are our rock and a hard place Bet of
the Week presented by hard Rock This one is grodess

(51:20):
for our friends at hard Rock Bet. Listen, we liked
the Ravens when it was one and a half and
they were dogs. We don't love bet and the line flip,
But the more I look at this game, the more
I feel like I'm betting a complete team against a
team that is Josh Allen and everyone else who needs

(51:44):
to be lifted by Josh Allen.

Speaker 2 (51:47):
Yeah, I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
I hate that it flipped, but people say, all wet,
all we do is bet dogs.

Speaker 2 (51:52):
Chad here, we're approving them wrong.

Speaker 3 (51:53):
We're on the chalk favorite now in the Ravens, and
I'm still confident.

Speaker 2 (51:58):
I'm still believing in this play.

Speaker 3 (51:59):
And you know it stinks because there's so many great
trends we talked about it. When you know Lamar is
a dog. He is twelve and three against the spreading
his career as an underdog. You know, we love that
type of stuff. But another trends I like to look
at is whenever he's playing on turf.

Speaker 2 (52:14):
And I know it sounds simple, but it's a big deal. Right.

Speaker 3 (52:18):
Turf is fast and that's Lamar's greatest strength, and that's
what this offense wants to be. They want to be fast,
and that, you know, to me is something I really
dove into. Whe It's like, can I find an edge
about Lamar and when he plays on turf fields and
there is a long term edge on that, right, I've
been betting in his whole career.

Speaker 2 (52:32):
I checked my notes.

Speaker 3 (52:34):
He's nineteen and three against the spread when he plays
an artificial turf nineteen three against the spread. So it's like,
you know, it sounds stupid, it sounds lazy, it sounds easy,
but it's factual when he's a different player when he's
playing on turf, because it is aff a different field
and the movement's different.

Speaker 2 (52:49):
So that was something that jumped out right away.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
And then you know, when we dove into the matchups
the Bills team, how they'll exploit this matchup.

Speaker 2 (52:58):
They will just run, run, run the ball.

Speaker 3 (53:02):
And to me, that could work, But at the same time,
that just means it's gonna be low Clow scoring close game,
and like, that's exactly where I want to be with Lamar,
because this is again, this is not the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (53:13):
This is a regular season where Lamar.

Speaker 3 (53:15):
He is clutch, He is a brutal out He is
a really tough beat and I think you know the
line movement. We have both the same feeling, me and Chad. Honestly,
it sounds stupid, people, but we've just been burned so
many times when the line flips, it just for some
reason just burns us.

Speaker 2 (53:32):
But I'm gonna touch the stove again.

Speaker 3 (53:34):
I think you're gonna touch it with me where it's like,
I know it's hot, I gotta touch it.

Speaker 2 (53:38):
Though.

Speaker 3 (53:38):
I just love this Ravens at this number and below too,
So at one and a half, I'm still gonna bet it.

Speaker 2 (53:44):
So yeah, it's people out there. You can shop around.
There's still some plus one and a half's out there.
Tease it. You have to at least tease it.

Speaker 3 (53:52):
Lamar as a dog and teasers fourteen to one as
a teaser, So getting him up to seven and a half,
there is no way he loses this game more than
a touchdown, horriball week one against the spread twelve and
five against the spread. So you know, he's just a
guy that gets his guys ready prepared for Week one.
And you know, me and chat both of the Chiefs.
Last year, we won that bet by a heel, right,

(54:13):
that was a really lucky bet. And the Ravens loss.
I can't see the lightning strike twice here.

Speaker 2 (54:17):
I mean that they.

Speaker 3 (54:18):
Are just so so so fired up about facing this
Bills team who they lost in the playoffs last year,
and we talked about it.

Speaker 2 (54:25):
I just I know the Bills.

Speaker 3 (54:26):
It's the last night Orchard Park, last opening game ever
at that historical ballpark, right was in nineteen seventy three,
that fucking stadium opened, So I get it's gonna be
a historical, over emotional night.

Speaker 2 (54:38):
If you just want to.

Speaker 3 (54:39):
Take Ravens first half, we always talkt we love Lamar
as a first half bet, go for it. But for
us and contest wise, that's what we're talking here, taking
them in the contest, taking them as a straight up bet.
I just love the Ravens and I'm almost positive it's
locked in a plus one and a half in our contest,
So I'm almost positive on Sunday morning, I'll be one
of our bets.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
Well, let's break it down right now. I think on
Sunday morning, four games that we feel great about after
this conversation Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, fifty percent of us feel
great about Tennessee and fifty percent of us are going
to go along just for the drama. And then we're
probably going to be deciding between what are the best lines,

(55:21):
how things have moved, either between a Las Vegas or
a Jets or maybe a Commander's, maybe a Seattle. We'll
see how things are going. Or there might be other
games that have moved and injuries have caused us to
rethink things. But I think that's where we stand right now. Again,

(55:43):
we will lock all this down Sunday morning, eleven am.
Sharper Square YouTube channel Simon right now as we do
this show biggest bet of the week so far.

Speaker 3 (56:00):
Cause I told you I've been betting this for months,
months and months. I would have to definitely go through
my book. I am assuming when I once I go
through and kind of all my tickets unfortunately probably gonna
be Dallas. Like I just I know I was hitting
that number for months, but I'm assuming come Sunday like

(56:23):
I'm gonna go through it.

Speaker 2 (56:24):
Now.

Speaker 3 (56:24):
I know I'm getting close with the Ravens, and I'm
getting really close with the Browns. Like again, Browns were
six and a half at one point. That's the number
I've just been hammering for months, hammered at six, kept
hitting at five and a half.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
I'm still betting at five. So that's that's gonna be
a gross day when I wake up and uh my
two biggest bets are gonna be Browns in Dallas.

Speaker 3 (56:43):
But yeah, I I do want to say with this,
like Chad said these early early weeks, guys, don't don't
go crazy with your bank all right, pick your spots,
be smart, very long season money management is literally fifty
percent of the bets.

Speaker 1 (57:00):
Yep.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
You don't become a professional with that of really strict
money management. So I'm highly aggressive. I've won big. I
got the equity to burn this way. If you got
a small bankroll, you have the power. Pick your spots.
Don't force bets. I said all the time in the show,
me and Ched have to pick five for contest. Most weeks,
I do three big bets or less. Right, I'm picking

(57:22):
my spots where i might do a total of spread props.
But I'm picking my spots. I'm not forcing in five
against the spread bets. The NFL is the sharpest market
you want to go and make a living, go back
college football. There's about three hundred freaking football teams. This
is a lot different thirty two teams, really stiff market.
So please people money management, be smart with your money.

(57:42):
Let's go, dude.

Speaker 1 (57:43):
I'll tell you two stories so you know. I'm working
on this book and I'm spending time with a lot
of professional betters, including a guy I was with last
weekend in Costa Rica. He's a big college football better,
a big baseball better. And when I say big, I
mean like from baseball point of view. I think there

(58:05):
might be five groups that are competitive with him. And
I think for the year he's maybe made one hundred
bets on baseball. Now, the volume he's betting when he
actually makes his bet is huge. He is so selective
and disciplined, and I sat with him on college football
Saturday all day. So selective. It is like half point difference,

(58:28):
point difference. He'll just walk away, does not get sort
of lost in the midst the way Simon is talking
about bank roll management, the best way to make money,
don't lose money. Simon, what is our money line? Round Robin,
underdog parlay. Here's what I think Saints Panthers, Lions, Raiders, Cleveland,

(58:57):
agree or disagree?

Speaker 3 (59:01):
I'll switch out the Raiders for the Jets.

Speaker 1 (59:07):
All right? Saints, Saints Panthers, Jets, Lions, Cleveland. All right, Survivor,
I think you said it a couple of times. We're
going with Denver and then sharp versus Square. I'm going Miami.

Speaker 2 (59:31):
You're going Miami. Yeah, I can't use brands against sugar.

Speaker 3 (59:38):
I guess man, I already have so much invested in
the Titans.

Speaker 2 (59:42):
I mean, I'm little. I can't. Should I triple down
on them?

Speaker 1 (59:45):
You know what? Brass balls go with the Titans?

Speaker 3 (59:48):
No, I'm going Ravens. I love the Ravens, and it's
such a it's still a good number. There's still plus
one and a half's out there. But I'll take the
hard rock. I'll take the minus one on this show.

Speaker 1 (59:58):
All right. So I'm doing in Miami. I think I
got one and a half for one. What's hard rock
say right now about Miami?

Speaker 2 (01:00:05):
I'm almost positive they move to uh, they pull it up.
They move to plus one, yeps.

Speaker 1 (01:00:12):
One plus one your ravens minus one. All right, folks,
this has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning,
eleven am Eastern as you eavedrop on a very intimate
conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,
make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day.

(01:00:33):
Then we will be back on sharpper Square YouTube Sunday night,
seven thirty pm Eastern to recap all that misery again.
All these are available on the audio feeds as well
Sharper Square, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify. Like this video, subscribe
to the channel, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever

(01:00:53):
you get your pods. Don't forget the listener contest. Give
us five stars, give us some comments. We're going to
read the best comments on the show. You're going to
get some swag. Feedback is a gift that helps make
the show easier to find for everyone. Help you fellow
listeners out a little bit. Until next time.

Speaker 2 (01:01:16):
I love you

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Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 1 bets for Ravens-Bills, 49ers-Seahawks, Giants-Commanders, Raiders-Patriots & more

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