Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Giants-Cowboys, Seahawks-Steelers, Bears-Lions & more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper, that makes the
Wise guys pay attention. I am Shad Millman. I enjoin
as always by my co host, my PFF, my companion,
my compadre, professional vetter, Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
So I'm in, Chad.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
What a week, brother, dud crazy week. We're feeling good.
But like any professional outfit, you know what we do.
We look past and we move forward. We get ready.
We don't rest in our loyals, laurels. This is our
Thursday Week two episode. I'm going to narrow down the
options on our quest to agree together as a team

(00:51):
on our five favorite picks for the week. Reminders subscribe
to Sharp or Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever
you get your pads. Let's get into it, brother, First,
gotta check in Wise Guy hot Line.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
WHI Guy hot Line?

Speaker 1 (01:15):
What are you waiting for? Did I start?

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Uh? Yeah, Let's start with the games they disagree on, Chad,
let's start. Let's get those out of the way. Last year,
I mean last week, I feel like we got a
little lucky, right We're on the right side of a
lot of the disagreements, and that's how it is, right
the pro line, the dog is not always the right side,
and me and Chad we have that hard lesson ourselves.

(01:39):
We really love these dogs. We have to remember chalk
does win. It's it's lined up to be another back
and forth week this week, and so let's start with
that Dallas game. I mean, I got a ton of
calls just guys loving that Giants team even more. You know,
I saw Bland got banged up, right, he's missing this game.
It's a big deal, especially when you're going against guys
like neighbors. But it's my whole point. It's Russell Wilson

(02:02):
behind a bad offensive line. So I think maybe we'll
talk a little bit more about that one. But yeah,
pretty pretty shocking all the calls I got about just
more Giants love. I was like, you didn't get burned
last week, and they're like, ah, they make excuses reasons
why it didn't work out, and that's just how it is,
right when you're playing this number. So I got some
good trends that back up the Cowboys and.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
That I'm excited at the get of this game. This
Giants team feels like the wise guy version of the
Panthers last year, and I don't get it. And so
I'm excited for us to hear your trends and dig
in a little bit. And I'm excited that we're not
getting suckered in by the Giants.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
I agree, and uh yeah, this is one of those
like Chad saying, it's uh, we'll talk more about it,
but this this Chiefs game, tons of calls about our
are like, maybe it's more of me my love for
the Eagles this spot, and I'm excited to break that down,
that one down with you because it's making me hold

(03:05):
even more firm in my position. Wow outside I'm on.
So uh yeah, that Eagles Chiefs game that is going
to be pros versus shows public is going to be heavy,
heavy on the Eagles side, and basically any professional I've
talked to for the most part is on the chief side.
I've heard their reasoning. I'm excited to give more of

(03:26):
mine on the show about why I'm still staying where
I am and the last one that they hated our
pick on and it's more directed once again towards me
again is my love for Minnesota. I owned up to
it to them on the phone as well. My love
the Vikings. I still love it. I had gotten info
about Drake London potentially missing this game and him being

(03:49):
really banged up. He was limited yest during practice, and
I watched him practice. He looked good. He made a
really good catch. Now I don't know if that's just
because it's practice and everything like that, but he moved
well in my opinion, and I don't know if that
shoulder is that big of an in jewry. When I
got the INFI I was like, oh my god, he's
on the road now Panics without his number one receiver,
Drake London. This number is gonna balloon up. It's gone

(04:11):
the other ways you see. It's it's dropped now from
four and a half to four to three and a
half and now hard Rock is down to three. So
that's another game. I'm sure we'll talk more about. But
oh yeah, yeah, the ones they love obviously for our
early sides, you know, we do a Sunday night show people,
if you want to check it out, it's it's a
really fun show. We break down our past games from

(04:31):
the week and we give out early lines. We nailed
a couple right, or I really did in my early
bets when I look back where I gave out Colts
plus three, the pros love it. They're down to one
and a half, and I talked to a lot of pros.
I love that one, So I'm sure we're gonna break
that game down. Even more people are messaging me panicking
like aren't you over over value of this Colts team?

(04:51):
And we talked about them. It's all about the line, right,
Like if there was threes out there, even our last show,
there's still two and a half's out there. We just
go where the value is and that to me was
the early line value. And another one Titans, we love them.
Talked to a bunch of pros, joined us on this bandwagon.
Another ugly dog at home. That's a pretty big spread, Jets.

(05:13):
Another game I think we're gonna break down. Got a
bunch of calls about the love for that, and then
you know, finally Chad's loves Seahawks. Got a bunch of
calls about that. So yeah, I'm excited to break all
these games down. Just a lot of love on the
dogs this week, and I've not shocked about the calls
we got about the lines we hate, but like we say,

(05:35):
the public does win. I have to pick and choose
my spots where I try to ride with the public
and the favorites in these spots.

Speaker 1 (05:40):
I love it. I love it. They really did get
into every game that we're going to talk about. I
think it's great. And what's interesting is I think, other
than the Chiefs Eagles, I think you and I are
pretty aligned on a couple of the games that they
hate and we love. But let's let's get into it.

(06:01):
First game, Cleveland and Baltimore. This had been on our radar.
The line currently at hard Rock Bet is twelve. It
opened to twelve and a half, got that down all
the way down to eleven and a half and has
now come back up. You know it's so hard, right,
This is when a one game sample size reeks total havoc,

(06:23):
like trying to dissect and translate the weaknesses of the
Since defense that or the Since the offense that made
the Cleveland defense so dominant, and if there are any
similarities with the Ravens offense, of which there are not. Meanwhile,
how can Joe Flacco take advantage of a Ravens defense?

(06:47):
When we were dissecting the Cincinnati game. We believe the
narrative for the Browns in that game had to be
slow the game down, rely on the defense, rely on
Joe Flaho not making mistakes, try to run the ball.
I think it's much harder to do that against this

(07:07):
Ravens team, as big as this number is. I don't
I don't love it, like and there's not even like
a ton of trends to back up playing this big
of a dog in the division everything. I feel like
we will find five games that we like more.

Speaker 2 (07:23):
Yeah, and I definitely went back and watched that. Since
the game, I heard from a lot of Bengals fans
and they're right, I did miss misspoke that. I said that,
you know, the Browns were able to run the ball
really well against them. They weren't. They averaged two yards
per carry. But what they did attacking was the running
backs catching the ball on the backfield like that was

(07:44):
That's what I missed because every time I felt like
I looked and look at that game, all sudden it
was the rookie Sampson I believe his name is, rushing
for nine yards but receiving the ball in the backfield.
So that was a fair criticism Chad. I don't know
if he's gonna crow yet on stort because he did
look really good in the game against the run. He
played well. I'll give that that kid credit. Uh, we

(08:04):
had a lot of questions about him so far one
game in. He looks like a first round pick.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
So, oh, you're talking about Shamar Stewart, the rookie for
the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (08:11):
Okay, yeah, you notoriously have hated the Yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
I've been against this pick from the beginning. It felt
like a classic Mike Mamoula pick. Let's choose an athlete
even though he didn't produce in college. So agree with you.
I might well have to eat it.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
Yeah, he might hit. He looks good. And you know
when I when I break this one down, you brought
up there's trends that actually say this is bad taking
a dog this big in division on the road early
in the season. So you know, same thing as you
went on the internet trying to find as much as
I could about this exact spot. And it's it's true.

(08:49):
I think I'm just too attack to this Browns team
because I just see the ways they can keep this
close right that secondary. They have issues right now right,
that is the weakness of those Ravens team, it's fair
to and this Browns team, we saw they have weapons
on the outside that can go downfield and make plays,
so tempting. I'm ten to be right, there's other games

(09:11):
I like more, so I'll stay away from it. And
you know, at the end, if you want to talk
about Ravens for Survivor, we can do that because you
know this is a good spot for them obviously. But yeah,
this number looked like it was heading towards nine and
a half ten though we're gonn get a Ravens number.
It's gone the other way. It's up to twelve now.
So if it gets up to thirteen, I'll be the
guy on Sunday throwing one out on the Browns, but

(09:33):
not forcing this one of the contests either.

Speaker 1 (09:35):
Yeah, and the move actually tells me when there's midweek
moves like this. As much as there is sort of
an expanded universe of sports betters, when I see a
move from eleven and a half back to twelve, that
to me tells me there's a wise guy money coming
in on the Ravens, and so that makes me a
little bit more hesitant. New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys.

(09:55):
There's numbers down to five. You mentioned the wise guys
have been coming into the Giants. I don't get it.
It's moved down also because of Deron Bland and the injury.
I'm with you. I feel like we got so burned
last year playing numbers with really ineffective quarterbacks. And I

(10:17):
mentioned the Panthers as a team that last year we
got burned again and again and again. Similarities here abound.
Like they've got a really ineffective quarterback, they've got a
really bad offensive line. I think those two things are
dual Achilles heel that counteract any benefit from having the
leak neighbors against a depleted secondary for the Cowboys, or

(10:41):
for that matter, a really good defensive line for the Giants.
I'm just not buying it. And I was more impressed
with Dak Prescott than looking back than I even was
after the game. And if not for a couple drops
by Ceedee Lamb, they might win that game. So I'm

(11:01):
getting more and more comfortable with the Cowboys here. I
bet him at five and a half, and I'm bummed
because if I had known about the Bland injury, and
you know, could have gotten more half point of value,
but I don't. I don't mind the cowboys here.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yeah, it's moving. I mean it's five and a half.
I remind us firing out of hard Rock. It's getting
down a four and a half. It looks like here
in Jersey at hard Rock, like the numbers leading towards
that way. And we just talked about that's professional money
coming pretty heavy moving it. And we didn't even talk
about week one. You know, I tend to like to
bet with the book, right, That's to me always the smart,
safer option, and I feel more confident my position if

(11:37):
I am with the book, but I go against them
obviously in a ton of spots. But last week we
didn't really talk about it was historical, right, It was
probably one of the worst weeks ever to start the
year for the betting public. There were three and thirteen
against the spread with teams that close his favorites ZHO
and five on the teams that we're getting more than
sixty percent of the bet right. So it was just nightmare.

(12:01):
One in ten total on teams sixty percent or more
against this getting like how much money was getting bet
on them in the tickets in Week one just historical
horrible week one for the betting public on these favorites.
So it is a little scary or we're stepping into
it on this one, right, We're either we're kind of
we always joke about this with the roletteheel, but it's

(12:21):
true where it's like, okay, black has just hit ten
times in a row. We're going red here, right, That's
what this kind of spot is because this is very public.
Like we both know that this.

Speaker 1 (12:33):
Is it's very public.

Speaker 2 (12:34):
Yeah, I talked to a lot of these book makers
and they're like, this is going to be one of
the ones we need, but one of the ones they needed,
just like last week. Right, last week there was no
big upset, but you're shocking how bad the public did
straight up favorites one, thirteen and three straight up. So
just like last year, and we're going to talk about that.
I think it's the end of days for our underdog
money line run, Robin. I can't keep losing money chat.

(12:57):
It feels like two years now. I'm just getting killed
because the favorites are just they're not covering, but they're winning.
It's it's very bizarre right now. So yeah, you know
this this exact spot is really a Dak Prescott spot,
and I get there are injuries to this Cowboys defense,
but when you dive into the Dak Prescott numbers, it's

(13:18):
pretty amazing how good he's been in his career against
the Giants exact spot. So he's thirteen and two straight
up ten and five ats against the Giants. His only
two losses in his career against the Giants, Jed was
against Eli Manny. So he's won thirteen straight against the Giants.
So I got a ton of calls and messages about

(13:40):
it's it's probably true to I'd have to go back
and look. But me, Chad, this our seventh season, three years,
we've lost survivor on the Cowboys. They're literally there are
black widow every time we touch and we die, like
they get us every time. And this is why I'm
not I'm not saying I'm forcing it in, but I'm like,
this is the best spot, and we'll just get it
out of the way, will be done with the Cowboys

(14:01):
in week two. But I've heard a lot of a
lot of worried fans and listeners of the show being like,
you guys always take the Cowboys in the spot and
get burned. But those Prescott's numbers make me really confident.
And you know we've seen it time and time again.
They could come out sluggish in the first half. Like
I heard some pros to talk about that trend about
these teams early in the year playing on like a

(14:23):
Thursday or Friday, then playing against a team on short rest.
The team on short rest actually comes out more prepared
to look like a more in rhythm in the first
half of those games. Okay, take Giants first half then,
but full game. I am very confident in this Cowboys team.
I think it's a great number getting great value, and
it's it comes back to just I just don't know
how Russell Wilson, that offense moves and scores the ball,

(14:45):
and you know pres Scott that was that was a loss.
That team is really really, really trying to get the
taste out of their mouth. Just a great spot to
back them here. Even if they're not as good as
I predict them to be, I think to the general public,
they're better than most people realize.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
It just goes to show you what a massive difference
when we talked about this effective competent better than competent
quarterback play can matter, like how much of a difference
it makes right a diminished offensive line. But if Dak
can move in the pocket and get outside the pocket
and make some plays or keep the play alive, that

(15:25):
makes a difference versus a Russell Wilson who's just become
completely ineffective in a shell of what he used to be.
I will pick a bone with one thing you said.
I'm not a huge fan of the quarterback versus team
stats because these teams change so much year after year
after years. There's no reason to think like he's going

(15:47):
to be better against the Giants than he is against
any of their team. He has more chances to beat
the Giants. The Cowboys have generally been better than the
Giants since the Eli Manning days. I will say, though,
Dak is profitable, and again for me, like the trends
are the last thing I used influence my decision making
and my bat like, it's so much more about on

(16:09):
field and situational analysis. They're the supporting evidence, they're not
the argument. Dak is profitable as a favorite in this spot,
meaning in the division. I did the math on this
yesterday when the line was it six six or more,
He's profitable you lower it and it's even more profitable.
So not hating this Cowboys spot, not hating it at all.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
I'm gonna give another trend. Just because you just said
you just like trends, I'm gonna give you some more trends. Now.
Even I got another trend for this game, no sacks taken.
So Jordan loves fits this, the Jacks fit this, the
Cowboys fit this. In week one teams that don't give
up a sack they are forty six thirty two and
one against US, so fifty nine percent in week two
since two thousand and three. That's fifteen and four since

(16:54):
twenty eighteen against the spread. In this exact spot, Shout
out there are guy Evan Abrams on useless trends that
I just love.

Speaker 1 (17:02):
Useless trend that is a useless trend that is like
whether or not a guy.

Speaker 2 (17:08):
That shows that teams that are good offensive lines that
played well in week one technically carries over to week
two that the offensive line stays plays well and doesn't
give up sacks.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
So that is the definition of correlation not causation.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
I do love the trend.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
Do not accept that trend.

Speaker 2 (17:24):
We literally on all three of those teams, and that
cracked up on Ashon. As I saw it, I was like, oh,
I love that trend.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
Detroit minus six against the Bears. Look, this has been
motoring right. It was at four and a half on Sunday,
settled in a five and a half for a few days.
It finally moved to six in the past say, twelve hours. Tricky, tricky, tricky,
like all bias aside because I'm not as much of

(17:52):
a Bears fan as I am, which is as big
as it can be. I'm not a klyb fatalist. Like
there were moments he looked good on Monday. There were
moments the Bears defense looked great. There were moments that
Ben Johnson looked like he could be an NFL coach,
And there were moments where everything looked like it was

(18:13):
the Bears playing like the Bears.

Speaker 2 (18:17):
But.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
Like, can it get better in time to be competitive
against a much more seasoned staff and head coach and
Dan Campbell, an overall more talented roster that knows that
got embarrassed and knows what needs to be done. This

(18:39):
move feels more like opinion and move on the number
to me than anything anyone can see in any of
the matchups because that Lion's defensive offensive line was truly trash,
so they got a lot to fix in a very
short period of time. Feels like it's just belief in
the Lion's ability to fix things faster.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Yeah, once again, It's Sunday Night's show talked about Lions
minus four and a half for this exact reason that
this was what was probably gonna happen if the Bears
fell on their faces. Even though the lines look terrible,
the public will trust them much more than they're gonna
trust this Bears team. And it's a rookie head coach
who's now on the road facing his former employee. This
has got to be I mean, I know he's trying

(19:22):
to play it cool. This has got to be this
everything game, And yeah, I get cherier coming from I'm
staying away from it. I got my little four. Yeah,
and I just I don't want to either be on
either side. I mean, there's six and a half's out
there now on this Bears team. So yeah, it's tempting.
They're tempting me because honestly, if you go back and
watch last year, this Bears team shockingly played pretty tough

(19:45):
against this Lions team that had all the pieces, so
pretty interesting matchup.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
And I do.

Speaker 2 (19:52):
Get why the professionals have come in and the public
has joined them that this is now you know, all
the teasers are throwing this Lions team in right no
way lines go o too especially against the Bears on
a short week on the road and Caleb's just missing
open throws. People are just so down on them. So
I people can tell I want to be on the Bears.
They'll get me there once aga another number six and

(20:13):
a half seven comes Sunday, I'll throw a little on
and try to hit the middle as well. But yeah,
that's that's just crazy, the movement of this line, that
it's moved so much, and at what point does it
hate go too far in this Bears team? But I
get it, rookie rookie coach on the road in a
revenge spotform. I just is this taking me in the

(20:33):
right place? Chat? That's what we just don't know. It's
is gonna be able to separate the emotions from what's
in front of them, and it's such a huge spot
for him and he knows start zero and two who
It's gonna be tough in Chicago for this Bears team.

Speaker 1 (20:47):
All right, Look, we were decidedly square in our love
for the Cowboys and are hoping that the number continues
to drop. Buffalo at New York Jets. New York Jets
are six and a half at hard Rock. Every time
this game touches seven, it gets back down to six.

(21:10):
On Tuesday, I lean bills a little bit and you
talk me out of it. Another forty eight hours of research.
I'm coming around to your side, Simon. This is a
rock and a hard place, hard rock bet of the
week in New York Jets. Are we sharp or are

(21:31):
we square?

Speaker 2 (21:33):
We both feel like this is sharp, but our fear
is it's slowly becoming a little square. So right now
I'll say it's sharp, but it's uh. I'm shocked the
leve of this Jets team. Like Chad just said, I
thought we would be getting a seven seven and a half.
But I'm happy to take the six and a half.
But I just can't believe the public's joining us to me.
This is what they love, right, Josh Allen, huge win

(21:55):
Sunday night. Everyone's gonna be loving this guy. MVP talk right,
He's the best in football. Jets blew a game I
just thought everyone would be all over this Bills team.
So yeah, the professional money, like Chad's saying, it is
coming in heavy on this Jets team every time it
touches seven. So we both love it. I'm gonna take
the six and a half. And it really is just about,

(22:17):
you know, the injuries to this Bills team and their
secondary and this Jets defense. I get people having major
questions about them, and now they're going from getting dominated
by Aaron Rodgers to now they're playing you know, one
of the best quarterbacks in football and Josh Allen. I
get the hesitation, but it's really about the number, right.
It feels like we're always gonna have the option to

(22:37):
get this back door here. So yeah, this is a
game we both love, and you know, the seven we
were hoping for, I just don't think we're ever going
to get there. I think six and a half most
people listen to show that's the best numb we're gonna
be able to get. I'm fine taking it.

Speaker 1 (22:51):
That's interesting because I feel like I was going to say, please, please,
please be patient and be aware because it has popped
seven enough that it could get back there. And this
to me feels like you gotta be on the lookout
on Sunday morning when the public comes in for the bills,

(23:11):
because most people are not tracking this and thinking about
it all throughout the week. They saw the Bills win
on Sunday night in dramatic fashion. They saw the Jets
lose like the Jets normally lose. They're not digging in
the way we dig in, and they're gonna bet on
Sunday morning at all the big bet places you can bet,
and that's when the move could happen to seven. I'd

(23:34):
almost rather risk waiting for the seven and getting that
number then and then have to bet a six if
I have to bet a six on Sunday versus landing
on the six and a half, I mean, I guess
I could take the six and a half and bet
it again at seven, but I'd rather be patient and
just try to get a seven.

Speaker 2 (23:54):
I stuff to get there, because like I talked two
different book makers just thing. They basically just said, yeah,
it's you know, all the teasers, parlays, all the public. Yes,
they're on the bills, but it is heavy, heavy professional
Jets money and the money's not even close how much,
so they're gonna they might end up needing the bills.
That's the fear for me or Chat is like this

(24:16):
might be a spot where they might need the bills
because it's so much more professional money coming to the Jets.
So that's why I'm just hesitant that I get back
to seven. But like you said, certain books, more public books,
they could because they're gonna need they'll need Jets money, right,
They're not taking professional money. Yeah, they're getting his bills
public money, especially at six and a half. So yeah,
that's that's a fair argument. You can't be patient and

(24:37):
hope it gets back to the seven at certain books.

Speaker 1 (24:40):
The game itself, it just feels like an advantage schematically
for the Jets regarding their run game against the Bills defense.
That their defensive backfield just was not very good.

Speaker 2 (24:56):
They were not great even their front those gaping holes.
I don't know if you saw clips people playing these
clips online, it's these massive goals for Derek henridg great
Derek Henry is. It will just be him in the
safety one on one, which Derrek Henry we saw, yes,
win every time you got it. You try to take
an angle on a guy who weighs, you know, two
eighty and muscle six' five sixty. Four they'll lose every.
Time it's Just Derek henry's a.

Speaker 1 (25:17):
FREAK i also think there's an emotional element, here The
bills coming off that win against one of the two
other teams that have been their, rival and The jets
feeling themselves right like they came into That steelers game super,
confident they wanted to prove who they were and then they,
lost AND i feel like this is another chance to

(25:38):
show the world that The jets are. Different so the emotional.
Swings this means so much more to The jets than
it does to The, bills and they get it at.
Home you're, like it's just it feels like a really
good spot for.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
US i.

Speaker 1 (25:53):
Agree seattle plus three At. PITTSBURGH i feel like you're
giving me credit for. This this felt to me like
a sharp play all, week and the juice on this
game had been at minus one point fifteen since we

(26:14):
did Our tuesday. Show it's come down back to minus one,
ten but that initial juice move told me that the
wise guys were coming in on The. Seahawks, Clearly i'm
very sharp, here, Right.

Speaker 2 (26:29):
YEAH i love The seahawks, too ARE i feel like
we're on the same page of what we like about
them in this, matchup and you know the fact that
their defense could be so much better than what we
saw from That jets, team and the way that this
defense can you, know Give Aaron rodgers Prom we Saw Aaron.
RODGERS i think he got sacked three or four times
in that. Game four. Times, Yeah so you, know there's

(26:53):
there's a lot of things to like about The seahawks.
Defense and then we talked, offensively they should have a
much better. Time i'm running against This pittsburgh team, that
just like The, bills has tons of injuries to their,
secondary and you, know the fear Is Sam. Donald it's
crazy to, say can he really attack them and affect
them the same way justin? Fields it of course not,

(27:14):
right the justin fields threat of the, run it's just
light years different Than Sam. Donald but you, know the
way this defense is On, pittsburgh we obviously think they'll be,
better but how much better is a. Question and you,
KNOW i Know chad again hates these. Trends this is
just ONE i saw that would just make sense because
it's it feels like A tomlin, Trend like WHEN i read,

(27:35):
IT i Go, okay no other team would have this
type of, trend But tomlin. Would they basically allowed thirty
two points against The. Jets right This pittsburgh's, Defense he's
twenty eight eleven and one against The, sprits seventy two
percent The steelers and the six exact spot the week
after their defense gives up thirty two points even more so,
scary he's ten and. One tomlin's ten and one his

(27:58):
exact spot the last. Eleven so it's a thing WHERE
i guess his defense he just gives them hell week,
like even though they won thirty two. Points i'm assuming
that's A tomlin stat where it's like it doesn't matter
if they win or. Whatever if they get thirty, two
it's as if they, lost especially if the defense and
he gets them. Right but still very confident in The

(28:19):
seahawks team and how they match up in about the.
Number but that one jumped out for. Me it was,
like oh my, god that is such A tomlin. Stat.
This anytime his defense gets lit, up they get right
the next. WEEK i mean in this exact. Spots usually
a trend that scares Me chad, off BUT i think
we're too. Deep we both just love The seahawks and
the number so two and a half. THREE i love them.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
BOTH i think The steelers are just being overvalued. HERE
i think that the market looks at The steelers and
knows that the public is going to come in on
them because they ultimately won in a high scoring game
and they Saw Aaron. Rodgers Aaron.

Speaker 2 (28:54):
RODGERS i, mean that's the. Difference Aaron. Rodgers that was.
Incredible but, LIKE i.

Speaker 1 (28:57):
Don't think they're. Unpacking Aaron rodgers isn't perfect in that,
game no, throws no attempts more than twenty, yards got,
sacked got, sacked.

Speaker 2 (29:06):
And it just killed The. Jets it was. Crazy, Yeah
and so to.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
Me that The steelers kind of got lucky in that.
Game The jets were a little bit. Unlucky and this
is a spot where maybe The, seahawks who are a
little bit unlucky in their game against The, niners can
take advantage and equalize some of that, karma so to.
Speak and the value was in The seahawks at plus.

(29:30):
Three so right, now like you AND i are kind
of aligned on three, Games, Dallas jets And. Seattle guess
what we got coming?

Speaker 2 (29:42):
Up hopefully it's is In. Miami that's What i'm waiting.
FOR i didn't Put miami on the list we GOT
i got some great stats about that.

Speaker 1 (29:49):
Game we'll talk about. It i've generally been looking for
ways to buy out of that bet the.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
Whole that's. Fine i'll tell you why it's a good
idea to buy out of.

Speaker 1 (29:58):
It tennessee The rams at The Tennessee titans last. Week
this was our brass Balls you. Nailed it worked out.
Perfectly guess, What, Simon Tennessee titans plus five and a
half for the second week in a. Row this team
is our brass balls bet of the. Week tell everyone

(30:25):
why this is a very sharp, Bet.

Speaker 2 (30:27):
Simon there's a bunch of. Reasons it's it's, Honestly i've
heard from Pros chad on The rams, shockingly AND i
thought this would just be total pros verse, shows, right
every pro would be on The, titans every one of their.
Grandma i'm, LIKE i feel like EVERYONE i talked with
a sports book the other day was just, basically, oh,
yeah got The rams in my, teaser got them with the,

(30:49):
bills like that was the stack right these because it's
a perfect number to bet it. Down but, yeah THIS
i think we're on the same page where it's, Like,
okay if we do a favorite money, line money line Around,
Robin i'd put The rams in.

Speaker 1 (31:03):
There.

Speaker 2 (31:03):
Right McVeigh does win in this. Spot but what's so
sharp about it to, me, like is just the. Number
it's a sharp, number the five and a. Half we
were Hoping Hard rock would get the. Six they've obviously
taken some smart money because there are some sixes out,
there but you, know five and a. Half to, me
it's gonna stay. DOWN i just don't see it going back,
up AND i see it coming down. Lower and it's

(31:24):
this that what's happened to The giants. LINE i thought
it was gonna happen with This tennessee. LINE i thought
people would go watch the camboard tape against That denver
defense that is really, good and see it was his
teammates and the coaching that let him. Down like he
made big plays in either, penalties drops or back coaching ruined.
It and it's, like, yeah he's got weird arm, angles

(31:47):
he throws it a little too fast in certain. SPOTS
i agree with some of that, criticism but, overall if
you just look at his, stats he looked like he
was horrible And tennessee was super lucky to cover that
number when it's like they were crazy. Unlucky and the
fear for me here is the coaching Because i've gone
back and watched that. Game it's. SICK i just like to.
PUNISHSELF i watched it twice, now That Denver tennessee, game

(32:09):
AND i just can't get Over callay and the coaching
mishaps and some of the stuff he. Does and you,
know just last, YEAR i think back to him With
Bill levis and he'd roll his eyes and be, like
this kid's so stupid the stuff this kid. Does how
stupid is. It it's, like, dude you're fucked it. Too
like some of the stuff he, does just, man he's
like he failed to, me Failed ward in that. Game

(32:31):
and we got very lucky in our survivor pool that
we got out of there with a. Win and this
number probably should be four three and a. Half we're
getting a bump because of how bad Came ward and
this team looked to the general. Public but you, know
the pros they've kept it under. Six we'll take the
five and a. Half and we talk all the time

(32:54):
this This rams. Team they're actually kind of great in this, spot,
right traveling from west to, east they're next not that,
terrible but we've seen, it, Right stafford is different when
he's playing outdoors in these type of. Games and, Yeah
I'm i'm fired top to see what The tennessee crowd
is like because right, now the trends are not good
about these favorites on the, road. RIGHT i think last

(33:14):
week favorites on the road were five and one straight.
Up so home field just isn't what it used to.
Be But tennessee here with the rookie, Quarterback i'm hoping
the fans can bring it and Give stafford that oftense
some problems on the offense because they got they have
through right this this this Is. Stafford if it's not
loud and they're not messing with this snap, count he's
gonna have his way with This tennessee. Defense this is

(33:34):
not Bo. Nicks this Is stafford With puka And, adams
and that's just we saw last. Game that's a great.
Offense they just you, Know houston's a really good. Defense so,
YEAH i love this. Number. CHAT i think you know
what you talked. About i'm glad we're in sink in
another game that's you, KNOW i could have seen you
bet on The. RAMS i could see why people want
to take The rams at the. Spot BUT i Think
tennessee had this. Number it's. Crazy two and fifteen against

(33:57):
the spread last. Year we think they're gonna start two
and h against the spread this.

Speaker 1 (34:01):
Season, well, look The rams also have some injuries in
the interior of their offensive. Line and the one thing
we saw The titans doing well last, Week Jeffrey simmons
was amazing and he was just.

Speaker 2 (34:13):
Thrush he was incredible crushing the.

Speaker 1 (34:16):
Pocket and so if he's able to do that against The,
rams Against Matthew, stafford who's becoming more and more immobile
and who was just not that great against The texans
defense that was kind of in his grill the whole
game from different, angles that goes, Well it's funny HOW

(34:38):
nfl sort of analysis circles this. Week there becomes a
theme that is pretty predominant if you pay a lot
of attention to this beyond like the big, games right
beyond The, Eagles, chiefs and beyond any sort of brand name.
Stuff the themes that evolved this, week which you nailed

(35:00):
ON i Think sunday Or, tuesday Cam warder was much
much better than people. Expected his pocket presence was, great
he was adjusting his protections like he just did a
much better. Job he was failed by his. Coaches that
is the big. Deal that's the risk here that we're.
Playing but, look when you're playing a bad team as an,

(35:21):
underdog you're taking a. Risk it's, betting it's not sure.
Thinging So i'm with. You i'm with. You it's your
breast balls better the Way denver At indianapolis you mentioned
it off the top Wise guy. Hotline this line has
moved from three to plus one and a. Half to,
me it's out at this. Number it's fascinating to watch

(35:43):
the line movement on this, Though simon like it really
indicates to me a little bit of a battle of
opinions that have been. Happening at twelve thirty On, tuesday
it was two and a. Half thirty minutes, later it
moved to. Two an hour, later it moved back to
two and a. Half next Day, wednesday moved back down
to two at four. Thirty two minutes, later it went

(36:07):
back to two and a, half literally four to thirty.
Two an hour, later it went down to. Two three
minutes after that it went to two and a, half
and then twenty minutes later it went to two. Again, finally,
overnight it's like somebody just said screw this and it's
now down to one and a half across the. BOARD
i don't have a. LEAN i don't think it's going

(36:27):
to be one of the games that we want to
play most. Strongly is one of our five. Favorites you
liked it at, two you've been on this at. Three,
obviously the sharp side has been The colts as it.
Stands do you have an?

Speaker 2 (36:41):
Opinion chat you non? Believer you don't believe In Indiana. Jones,
yeah it's the sharp Side. Colts, Right it's we're betting
on a number on a team that we see what
their identity is going to. Be and that's WHAT i
love about. It we're Bo. Nicks we talked about. It
you saw the adjustment made By, tennessee AND i believe

(37:02):
we're gonna see it By. Indianapolis that he does have.
Weaknesses you can attack and or frustrate, him and there's
things you're gonna. Exploit BUT i get your hesitation, here,
Right it's it's just a.

Speaker 1 (37:12):
Number we missed the best of the number.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
Here that's that's. Fair like we if it was two
and a, half obviously be much more. Confident and the,
three LIKE i said On sunday, night you know that
was three at Hard rock there was three and a
half all Over and that's my whole point was, like
this is gonna have to come. Down there's no way
that professionals come in on The broncos at minus. Three
chad just told you they've been hitting This bronco side

(37:36):
at the minus one and a. Half they've been hitting
it at the. Two now they've seen. That you, know
it's it's the public, side This bronco. Side so the
real professional, money the heavy, money has put this now
one and a. Half AND i agree with, you it's
we don't have to force it in. THERE i do like.
THIS i do like This colt, side and LIKE i
am bett into, It but Like chad, Said i'm betting

(37:58):
at better number than, This So i'm not gonna stamp
my feet here and be like you have to take
this one and a. Half but it's, like, MAN i
just have major questions about That broncos, team AND i
think they got very lucky last week that they did
face our rookie quarterback on that defensive side because he had.
WINDOWS i don't know how great that run defense is
gonna be, Either like you, Know, pollard that fumble just

(38:21):
a total killer of a drive for That tennessee. TEAM
i just can't See taylor putting them that bad of a, spot.
RIGHT i feel like that last FUMBOT i really remember
if his was the one that cost me And chat
an insane amount of, money him dropping it right before
he was scrolled in for a touchdown AGAINST i believe
this same Exact broncos. Team SO i think last time they,
played they were about to go, up, like what was,
It chad twenty one or twenty to? Three he drops that.

(38:44):
BALL i don't think they score another points This colts,
Team so that's to, me it's something has to be
on their mind as. Well and, yeah if it's two
and a half in your, Contest i'm gonna be. Tempted
i'll see if it isn't ours to Make chat play
it On, sunday you'll have to check it, out tune
in and. See but as you say it right, now
one and a, half if you want to bet, IT
i don't hate the. Number i'm still going to take.
It most LIKELY i Just i'm going to try to

(39:05):
be patient on this one as, well and hope we
get back to that key number of, two just because
there are some pros on That denver side that could
your book bump this back up to.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Two we got to talk about The chiefs and The
eagles because you mentioned it off the. Top there is
a very clear divide, here and this line has moved
a full three points since we first discussed it On sunday.
Night you Leaned eagles when they were one and a
half point. Dogs everyone is piling on this. Ship how

(39:38):
far is too far to now think that The chiefs
are plus one and a half point dogs and we
still want to bet The. Eagles, simon this is the
Show sharper. Square it feels to me like the sharp
side is The, chiefs and yet you want to Be

(40:00):
Quentin tarantino square on The.

Speaker 2 (40:07):
EAGLES i KNOW i picked my. SPOTS i picked my.
Spots i'm thinking of going square here At. Chad i'm
pretty square BECAUSE.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
I break it down from it, because like to, me
this is about the number and about the. Flip AND
i know The eagles right now probably have more talent
on their. Roster but can we not, like do we
have such sort of recency bias that we're forgetting It's
Patrick mahomes and it's Still Chris, jones and it's Still

(40:36):
Andy reid and it's Still Steve spagnolo and it's still
The chiefs at, home and, like it's not like this
team isn't still a Super bowl.

Speaker 2 (40:44):
Contender, no but we've seen that we got burned by
that E zac thinking in The Super. Bowl and it's
my wholest perspective of this is this number is What
chad just. Mentioned it's the public reception of The chiefs
team of years. Gone and you're the guy that just
bangs the table about every year teams are, different aren't?

(41:06):
You isn't? That aren't you that?

Speaker 1 (41:07):
Guy SO i don't try to throw my words back
in MIND i.

Speaker 2 (41:10):
Have to you say these. Things i'm, like store that
away for later because he will trip.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Up don't point out my failings to.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
Me uh, YEAH i JUST i can't get over this.
Number and my only thought process of it, is, well you,
Know eagles extended, rest maybe come out. Slow we still
have questions about their, offense and you, know some of
their defensive pieces they. Missed but it's Like the biggest
thing we're talking over Is Jalen. Carter that's WHY i

(41:38):
wasn't banging the table BECAUSE i was in my mind,
thinking this is a Suspended Jalen carter. Line that's why
The eagles to me opened at plus one and a
half as a, dog, right that felt to me like
A Jalen carter. Line, yeah BECAUSE i in my in my,
MIND i couldn't think what they just lost their number
one receiver and they're already down their number one, receiver
so now they're down their number, one number. Two he's

(42:00):
throwing To Hollywood brown And Juju Smith schuster here and
a thirty, five thirty six year Old Travis. Kelcey it's,
like that's what was so amazing That chargers, game where
it's Like mahomes to me is just you're crazy if
you don't think this guy's one of the best quarterbacks
or the best quarterback in. Football like the plays he
makes with a town around, him he's just he's so
incredible and that, would to, me would be the magic Of.

(42:23):
Mahomes and while you're taking him in the, spot you're
betting on past success on these, numbers and it's pretty
easy to look it. Up he's only been a dog
one other time this exact, spot so regular season at
home as an underdog two and a half point dog
to The Buffalo. Bills he lost twenty four to. Twenty
so in my, mind a lot of stuff we're talking,
about it's been him on the road and. Discredited that's

(42:47):
why he was a. Dog and he shows up on
the road of those exact spots to get him as
a dog at, home this other team must be, really really,
good like to the books to make that. Number it
is so that that's when where if the books did
make it three three and a, half which is closer
to WHAT i think it should, BE i think they
would be showing their hand where it's like if you

(43:09):
can't tell me The eagles from That Super bowl haven't
either flatlined or improved Or This chiefs team as is
feels like a step, down especially a team that we've
all talked about. It they went to three Straight Super.
Bowls this, team mainly the, core that's a lot of
miles on these, guys and they've always treated these early
seasons not as a. Preseason. Right they do win and

(43:31):
cover early in the, season they do win, games but we've.
Seen they don't really turn it on Till december And.
January that's just how The chiefs have been these last
couple of. Years so, YEAH i get. It they're going
to be revenge, spot you, Know Super bowl all that.
STUFF i just think it's like the big guy putting
his hand in the little kid's. Forehead they just they
can't hit This eagles, team, Right they just this how

(43:51):
he built this team to beat The chiefs like that
was his one goal of. Mine he didn't beat. It
he didn't build this team for ANYONE. Nfc The. Eagles
i've never looked at is that anyone in THE nfc
is a. Problem SO i just look at this. Matchup
you're getting a fired Up carter in this. Spot, Defensively
eagles got an insane amount of pressure On deck. Right
they were finger lengths away from getting strip sacks and

(44:14):
getting the ball out of his. Hands Without, carter this
is a arguably a worse offensive line than what The
Dallas cowboys had last. Week like we've, seen even That
charters defense had major pressure On. Mahomes so, yeah it's
all about the number year for. ME i know it's
the public, side BUT i think it's the book give
me too much respect, professional but there's giving too much

(44:35):
spect For Mahomes And i'm definitely looking forward to eating
these words Comes sunday BECAUSE i know just about Every
probauct talk to they are lining up to take This chief.
SIDE i just think they're undervaluing This eagles team and
exactly what the spot is where it's, like it's just
not they don't have the. Pieces if It's worthy And
rice With mahomes here and it's minus, one honestly on The,

(44:57):
CHIEFS i would be very tempted to take. That it's, Like,
OKAY i can see them keeping up and putting pressure
on The eagles number two, corner who's attack in the
ego's biggest, weakness the number two corner on This chiefs.
TEAM i, mean you have a name CHAT i. Can't
there's nothing that scares me on the chief. Side so
it's just it's very, public it's very. Chalky i'm gonna
maybe force us one in on us And i'll own

(45:19):
it BECAUSE i Know chad's hesitant about. It BUT i
just love the way this line's up for This eagles.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
TEAM i was just gonna, SAY i can't deny you your.
Passion you feel so strongly about, It we're of course
gonna put this. In you're of course gonna own. It
it's of course gonna be one of our five favorite,
picks and we're gonna ride or day ride Or di
with His eagles. Team in, Fact i'm making a change right.

(45:45):
Now i'm making an executive. Change this is our rock
and a Hard, place Hard rock better than week because
we will be so against what the conventional wisdom is
in terms of betting on The chiefs as. Dogs we
will be so against the wise guys on this. GAME
i am. Transitioning this is going to be Our rock
and A Hard, place Hard rock bet of the. Week
we're taking The eagles minus one and a. Half it's

(46:06):
going to be one of our favorite. Five Boom locket.

Speaker 2 (46:10):
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(48:47):
forget My chad Loves love With seattle plus. Three your
assignment says at the time Was minnesota minus four and a.
Half it has come, down and you intimated that you
thought it was going to Be Drake london not. Playing
he thought the line was gonna go. Up it actually
did move up to five and a half in some.
Spots you, know after there was some feeling That Drake

(49:10):
london was gonna, play but it's been a steady drift
down where down to three and a Half wednesday, afternoon
now it's at. Three after the news came out that
not Just Drake london But Darnel mooney. Practiced they're both
expected to play when they go to play At. MINNESOTA
a lot of pros Liking atlanta, ALSO i think because

(49:32):
they look at That Tampa bay game and, think, oh
WHEN i break this, Down atlanta should have won that,
game like a touchdown pass was missed Because Darnol mooney
wasn't on the field as replacement couldn't make the. Play
SO i think that there's also a huge difference in emotional.

(49:53):
SWINGS i don't Like atlanta here now BECAUSE i think
all the value is, gone But i'm not leaning Towards
minnesota on this. One it doesn't feel like a final
five to.

Speaker 2 (50:06):
Me it's too. BAD i was. HOPING i was hoping
you were gonna Love, atlanta but this is Just i'm.
Dugging i'll admitted it right. AWAY i am dug in
AND i do love This viking, side but it's brutal
where it's LIKE i was between that game and The.
Saints it feels like for my Early simon says it
was all based on. Injury it's LIKE i THOUGHT i

(50:26):
was more leaning into a, party was just going to
force it him play and Where Drake london was gonna
miss because the INFORMATION i got that with his, shoulder
he basically apparently he could put his arm above his,
head which WHEN i heard that huge. Deal first CLIP
i see yesterday it's him catching the, ball reaching both
his arms way above his, head snacking the ball out of,
there and it was just, like oh my, GOD i
GOT i Got. God so that's the tough part of this.

(50:48):
Business it's a lot of. Hearsay obviously WISH i had
just done The saints right that four and a half
now looking like a genius bet because it's down to
three in That saints game or this. Matchup it's gone
against me and most Pros i've talked to they like
This atlanta. TEAM i think they view What chad said
penis when you really dive into, numbers he's actually pretty

(51:08):
good and he played pretty well even under pressure in that,
game like even moved off the, spot played pretty. Well
my pushback That Tampa dee isn't that? Good they're banged
up as. Well like is you Know? VITAVE i know
he played in the. Game he did some thing as.
Well right, again into the run, stuff they weren't getting
tons of pressure up the, middle which we've seen in.

(51:30):
College that was what panic weakness, was, RIGHT i was
getting the push up the. Middle LIKE i, said this
is A flora's. Defense like if you go Through penix's,
career at his early, career he has put up numbers
and played really. WELL i will give them credit for. That,
uh but you look at the teams he's. Face this
is going to be the toughest defensive test for him by.
Far and you, know as much STUFF i want to

(51:53):
give crap To Kila williams about he had no run.
Game The bears had no run. Game that's What flora.
Is he had one game plan that was a takeaway
The bears run game and Make caleb beat. Them caleb
beat them with his. Legs that was something he was
not prepared. For, Right like they did take away his
passes downfield and different things like, That but the game
changer of that game was by Far caleb's. Legs Can

(52:13):
pennix do that against His vikings? DEFENSE i don't, Know
LIKE i know you had that rushing touchdown Against, tampa
BUT i just Think caleb's a little bit more. Athletic
and you, know this is at a point now WHERE
i love, it like it's it's good value to, me
especially at minus three This vikings. Team And i'm gonna
learn pretty quick If i'm over value IN jj McCarthy

(52:34):
and giving him too, much too much credit in mind,
model giving him too many. Points but you, KNOW i
like this, one AND i was hoping you were gonna
Like atlanta Because i'm almost positive they're going to, be you,
know five and a half four and a half in our.
Contest AND i was, like all, right perfect, Chawt we'll
take this. Game we, lose And i'm just gonna hit
him over the head with a coconut and be LIKE
i told YOU i had this number at. Six i've

(52:54):
moved it down, though because now That Drake linon is,
HEALTHY i do have it at four and a. Half
so STILL i have a good value if you want
to bet The vikings right. Now AND i like the
spot once, again PROS i think the, Public i'm almost,
Pops they're all going to line up on This atlanta
side and take this road dog AND i just being

(53:14):
a home favorite On sunday night and you're with the.
Book to, me it's been a good spot to be
in long term for. Me so that's really the basis of.
It like there's trends to that point to people lik In,
atlanta AND i love, trends but, HERE i JUST i
can't get over this. NUMBER i just can't believe the
value on this number of This vikings. Team that the

(53:34):
question was the, quarterback if the quarterback can put sustainable drives.
TOGETHER i know it's only one, quarter BUT i think
they found. Something he found some confidence there that's going
to carry them to this. Season and we talk all the,
TIME i mean, chat we talked before the. SEASON i
didn't see WHAT JJ i did have other professional betters tell, Me,
hey this kid WHEN i watched their, tape WHEN i
watched their practice, film everything about, them it's not a

(53:57):
dumb bet eighty to one for him to BE. Mvp
AND i was just it's, like oh my, GOD i
can't see, It LIKE i just can't see it because,
again he didn't play all last year and it's a
kid that just did now throw the ball in college
like there had to be a Reason hornball was not
let him throw. It and at the end of the
day we might learn it's, just you, know that's What
michigan's offense. Was they were just our run first, team

(54:17):
protect the. Ball that was his, job and that's how they.
Won and we saw in that first game against The bear.
SHAT i mean you saw. It he can sling it
like that kid can throw the ball and fit into some.
Windows so, YEAH i can't get over the fact that
This atlanta team feels incredibly overrated and overvalued right, now
and somehow after that, win This vikings team is somehow
becoming undervalued and it's just playing the number minus. THREE

(54:40):
i got to take it at this.

Speaker 1 (54:40):
Value, YEAH i probably lean The vikings at minus. THREE
i don't think it'll be one of our five favorite.
Bats i'm glad you can't shame me about The. Falcons
when it comes TO jj, McCarthy i'm reminded of the
fact that the old, joke only one person could Keep
Michael jordan and under twenty points a. Game it Was Dean.

(55:04):
Smith do you get? It you know you're not. Laughing
Jim harbaugh is The Dean. SMITH jj McCarthy is the
guy being held? Back is it too? Old is the
joke too?

Speaker 2 (55:20):
OLD i think it's too. Old there might be a
guy there laughs say you Never, NO i just was
not that.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
Guy you never. Know it just wasn't. You all, right
you do get to shame me About. MIAMI i have not.
LISTENED i have not talked About. MIAMI i have not
said we need to Put miami. IN i have been Off.
MIAMI i could not cash out of the. BET i.
Apologize but if you feel the need to shame, me

(55:50):
go ahead and shame me about The Miami. Dolphins but
you're not shaming me BECAUSE i agree with everything you're.
Saying i'm preemptively not letting you shame.

Speaker 2 (56:01):
Me. WELL i just want to talk if we might
have to try to get The, patriots and are we
missing out on opportunities? HERE i think let me seem
and my hesitation is always going to Be i'm not
shy about. It i'm A Drake may, hater LIKE i
get the hyped Around Drake. May but you'd have these
people on media talking about how much smarter they are

(56:23):
than all of, us and how Great Drake may is
and how we just don't see what they, see and it's.
Tiresome it's, like no one doubted this guy having a
big arm in him being able to run the ball
like he's, athletic but it's, like is he? Consistent and
the thing, is we just blame the, weapons, right you
blame the, coaching you blame the offensive line joins me
things to blame and we've just in THE. Nfl you,

(56:46):
know it takes a little, bit. Right that's why With
Drake MAY i don't want to be too hard on
BECAUSE i know it takes a little. Bit but it's
like to still think he's better Than Jayden, Daniels what
are we doing? Here like that's such an as andine
thing to try to project doubt heading of this. Season
and you, know looking at this, ONE i really wanted
to dive into the trends here BECAUSE i was just,
thinking what CAN i even find On miami to Like

(57:09):
miami and even give you EXACTLY i know exactly what it. Is,
yeah don't Back miami, Here and oh but do.

Speaker 1 (57:16):
You want the trend the one thing that sort of.

Speaker 2 (57:19):
Flagged for me and the one you found you.

Speaker 1 (57:21):
Loved it's it's all about teams coming off a blowout
they're up a twenty plus point, loss they're at, Home,
like this is when you bet that team that looked incredibly,
Bad and so that's what made me immediately bet. THEM
i didn't think, about you, know offensive line. ISSUES i
didn't think about secondary. Issues this to me was purely

(57:44):
a number trend. Play that was. It, LIKE i regret.
IT i haven't bought out of. It Maybe i'll get
lucky and it'll go my. Way and you, know like
everything else in the, world when everything is anti anti,
anti everybody is. Wrong BUT i don't love it enough
to try to convince you the way you're trying to

(58:04):
convince me on The eagles or maybe The vikings that
it's going to be one of our five favorite. PLAYS
i made the. Bet i'm sticking with it BECAUSE i
can't get any value cashing. Out BUT i made the
bet because they were blown, out and historically that, says
immediately bet that, team that there's going to be too
much value on. Them and, essentially the line has stayed

(58:25):
exactly where it. Was it stayed where it was WHEN
i got the best of the. Number it opened at
one and a, half got to two and a. Half
it's now back down to one and a. Half it hasn't,
moved so NOTHING i can.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
DO i thought you're gonna give me a. TREND i
don't know what that, was But i'll give you a
team a.

Speaker 1 (58:42):
Train the trend is you back the TEAM i can't
remember the exact. Number the trend is you back the
team that's up a blowout.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
Loss teams in week one that lose by twenty one
points or more than their. Favorite obviously in week. Two
they're five twelve and two against the spread since two
thousand and, five and they're zhe to three against this
bread since twenty twenty. Two in this exact, SPOT i, have,
Yeah so like, again that's a. Fade miami in the six,

(59:07):
spot exact. Spot So Miami dolphins didn't score a single
point in that first half against you KNOW O colts
defense that we can agree they're not that, good like
that was really on to, it like, too just can't
stop turning the ball. Over but it's, like, okay it
is one bad. Game maybe the next game they'll be.
Better so, again no points in that first, half that
same team that's had the. Favorite the next, week they're

(59:30):
five and ten against the thread in this exact, spot
and you know it's it's just bad For. Miami and
when you see, that they're right tackle who's, bad and
their right guard who's bad are out for this game
and their backups are now In oh my, god it's you,

(59:50):
Know Milon. Williams this is why you got him from The.
Eagles if you're The, patriots you you have a guy
that was giving problems At Geno smith last week and
that offensive. Line how does he not dominate This miami offensive?
Line and once again we've Seen. Tua he doesn't have
time and you can cover his first. Read Like chad,
said he's bad and he. Struggles And, tyreek we've talked

(01:00:13):
football is this weird sport where if your whole mental
aspect isn't, right you're just not. Right and it feels
like two is. NOT i, Mean tyreek has not been
right for two years now and everyone's seen that. Stat
he's only he's only had one game where he's had
to catch for over thirty yards and that was last
year against The jaguars In week. One So tyreek has

(01:00:37):
just been a. Disaster This miami team has been a.
Disaster and if it Wasn't drake May i really would
be just hammering this line because it's, like if you
have a comparable quarterback year that doesn't turn the ball
over and can move the ball semi down the, field
this should be a very easy cover for This patriots
team And brabell because they're just as desperate As. Miami

(01:00:59):
they don't want to be owing. Either, yeah and you
Know vrabel him bringing this whole person out of this.
Team this is exact game where his personality for the
team shoul show. Up right that that game against The
raiders that we talked, about The Pete, carroll you, Know
Gino smith. Combo we wanted to see what it was
gonna be. Like we saw that that looked like a
veteran team with a veteran coach and a veteran. Quarterback

(01:01:20):
And vrabel looked like the veteran coach with the inexperienced.
Quarterback or we gonna get burned here again because this
is The miami. Spot that is also another fear where
it's like this usually Where tua plays. Well BUT i
Told CHAD I i even On Tuesday, show if, this
if this My miami team gets down seven or ten
and the booz start ringing in from This miami. Fans

(01:01:42):
it just all feels like it goes so sour so
quick because this team just feels like they have no
confidence of their head. COACH i, mean the sound bites
from them this week have just been. Atrocious and that's
AGAIN i don't want to be sucking because that's such
a media thing to hear the sound bites and be, like,
easy bet take The patriots. Here but you, Know i'm
looking at the splits on a couple of different sites

(01:02:02):
and it's pretty, Even like there's pretty decent amount of
people Betting miami in the. Spot they're not if this
was me And chad taking The patriots and it was
ninety percent of the tickets and ninety percent of the,
money we're on The patriots and this number was Still
dolphins minus, one me and you would book you're like red.
Flags either you Take dolphins or you just stay. Away
it's not really like. That it's honestly pretty. Even there's

(01:02:24):
some pros on The dolphins, side and it really. IS
i think What chad, said, right it's a team that got.
Embarrassed they are better on paper than This patriots. Team
but it's, like man on, PAPER i get, it but
in real, LIFE i don't know if they're that. DIFFERENT
i don't really like and that's what this line. Reflects
like it's it's the right line to, me and the
better team to me is the dog right. Now So

(01:02:44):
i'll work on you even On. Sunday i'll see IF
i get you on The patriots. Team but it's it's
just a Line i've been. Betting the trends point to.
IT i like that, matchup and then all of a
SUDDEN i heard about the right guard and the right
toad Goes, YEAH i was. Right this got up to
two AND i Got patriots. Too as soon as that
new came, out The rights other whole line being, out
it just dropped right back down to. One SO i

(01:03:05):
just don't think it's moved, enough and it's gonna be a.
Line i'll be terrified if it does flip, though because
we hate betting flip. Lines but how does this not
flip The? Patriots who is betting heavy money on This miami.
Side it's it's it's such a bad team right. Now
it's just everything. Negative, Alright, love we'll have.

Speaker 1 (01:03:20):
This conversation On. Sunday it's a spirited. Debate i'm moving
aside any kind of sort of FEELINGS i might have
Because i've already bet. IT i just want to make
the best five picks we can Make. Sunday it will
have to be a. Conversation are we going to say
that we like it better than?

Speaker 2 (01:03:35):
Dowb you want to do one more? GAME i got
a stat On bengals And Joe.

Speaker 1 (01:03:38):
Burrow, okay, great because The bengals are actually a. Team
i'm waiting for that number to get from three and
a half to. Three so if it gets to, Three
i'm betting The. Bengals, okay so give it to. Me
SO i gave, it and the stat better make me feel.

Speaker 2 (01:03:54):
Better, yeah that stupid stacks THAT i gave earlier about
basically fifty nine. Percent if you don't, remember There's Green,
bay there's The jaguars as The.

Speaker 1 (01:04:03):
Cowboys how about that stupid said about the zero sacks and.

Speaker 2 (01:04:06):
Yeah if you don't have sacks in week, one, yeah
which pretty much shows that you have a pretty good offensive,
line especially in week, two or.

Speaker 1 (01:04:13):
You're playing a team with a terrible defensive. Line it's.

Speaker 2 (01:04:16):
Fair look look what we got here, though The bengals,
defense which isn't as terrible AS i, said but, again
this that might have been A cleveland thing Where cleveland's
running backs are you, know, atrocious where we don't think
that we think The jaguars run blocking scheme will be.
Better this is really though A Joe burrow. Step me
And chad talked about, it, Right Joe burrow week. One

(01:04:37):
we we know the. Deal you fade him. There the
public over values him for some. Reason doesn't matter even
that we saw it doesn't matter if he plays in.
Preseason that offense just isn't in. SYNC i cannot believe
he had seven yards in that second. Half brown's defense is,
good we know that they're not that. Good let's be honest,
here like, that that was a total. ANOMALY i get

(01:04:58):
if you if you're Like chatty and you're waiting for
together three because you expect to bounce back spot against
an over Valued jaguars, team that you know this, number
what's five and a half Like chad, said it's three
and a half Three, Now Joe Burrow week, two he's
just a guy that, struggles and we've seen it early
in the, career early early in the. Season you, know
his first three Games brow in his career as a,

(01:05:18):
favorite first three games of the, year won seven to
one against the spread in his career as a, favorite
and again last that includes last week where he was
his favorite didn't cover when he's listened a. Favorite within
the first two, Games, chad The bengals are zero and
six against the.

Speaker 1 (01:05:34):
Spread this doesn't make me feel. BETTER i, MEAN i
haven't bet it.

Speaker 2 (01:05:37):
Yet i'm just, saying like it's all there that for some,
reason these first two, Weeks joe doesn't do. Well The
bengals doing, well he doesn't do well as a favor
the rest of the. Season joe after three week three and,
later he's forty three twenty two and one against the. Spread.
Chat so that's WHAT i, mean like you look for
these trends because it's, like what AM i not seeing

(01:05:58):
with this game that you? Know to? Me I'm i'm With,
jad like why is this game not a little? Higher
like this This jags, team how do you not think
they're a little? Overvalued but now WHEN i really dive
into it's, like you, know three and a, half that's
the right number for this. Game SO i am on
The jaguar side when people were asking about this, game
AND i did just want to give Respect sincides run

(01:06:19):
defense isn't as terrible as they looked last, year but
that we'll see again how they do against his run
blocking scheme of the zone blocks that you, know that's
where The jaguars are gonna be running, now and THAT'S
i love zone block because it leads up to the running.
Back the running back cuts and chooses the.

Speaker 1 (01:06:33):
Hole you.

Speaker 2 (01:06:34):
Saw that can be a really big deal for. Them
and you know they just got rid Of Think. Bigsby
they're given two and more. Looks, now you know that
could be a really good backfield with him AT. Etn so,
YEAH i just wanted to bring that game up and
just give out That Joe burrow. Stat people just, said
we're the Biggest bengals. Haters we love betting The. BENGALS
i told you WE i just gave you this. Ot
we're gonna betting The bengals for the rest of the.

(01:06:55):
Year this first three, weeks it's just. Different Like, taylor
the head coach whatever it, is doesn't have the guys.
Prepared they, Struggle joe struggle against the. Spread the public
isn't weird to. That the guy is literally zero and
six and this exact SPOT i as a. Favorite so
it's just it's something to be wary all Of Joe
burrow early season as a favorite against the. Spread all, Right.

Speaker 1 (01:07:14):
We're gonna have a healthy debate On sunday BECAUSE i
feel like there are some leaders in the, clubhouse but
there are some some teams sort of knocking on the
clubhouse door trying to get. In oh, yeah and those
are games where you got you AND i are are
much less. Aligned so tune In sunday, Morning Sharper square on,
YouTube listen to it on your podcast. Feeds Simon's Biggest,

(01:07:39):
bet what do we?

Speaker 2 (01:07:40):
Got, YEAH i mean it is tough because like obviously last.
WEEK i, mean, guys we hear it LIKE I it
is tough in my spot where, YEAH i bet The
ravens for three months at plus one and a, half
AND i know nine percent of people listening to the
show Got ravens of minus.

Speaker 1 (01:07:59):
One.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
Brutal going, forward it shouldn't really be like, that, Right
if you catch this show at the show we, posted
hopefully you're getting the same number as.

Speaker 1 (01:08:07):
Me and.

Speaker 2 (01:08:09):
This, week, honestly The colts three plus two and a.
HALF i did hit that pretty heavy for the first two,
days like early early on. Here that's really WHERE i
put a lot of my Money jets plus seven mean
chat talked about. IT i Love. Jets if you can
get the, seven get the. SEVEN i feel so much
more confident about it at the. Seven and you KNOW

(01:08:30):
i talked about This eagles. TEAM i can't stop betting.
IT i love. It i'm already Dreading sunday where If
i'm wrong about this, one just because not only AM
i going to be eating this from a lot of
professional bears and maybe even, chat but it's, like it's
hard WHEN i hit these numbers so heavy and your
vision of the game how it's gonna play out goes totally,
sighways and it's like that's the same thing we're Be like,

(01:08:52):
then we've been against my homes here And i'm betting
Against Josh. Allen it's not. Fun both are, terrifying right
that that experience we had On sunday, night that was,
horrible like Having Josh allen come back because we all
knew what was. Happening right as soon As horriball punt
them that fourth and, two fourth and, three me And
chad knew that was that was. It that was that
was a losing. Bet so, yeah like that that egos

(01:09:14):
one to, me it's really gonna decide my. Weekend and,
yeah that's again we're gonna be talking more about On.
Sunday we'll see where that line. Goes i'm excited to
see does it flip he goes back to a dog
or does this does this get up to? Two, Chad
it's gonna be interesting watching this. One by the time
we get The sunday.

Speaker 1 (01:09:28):
Money line underdog Round Robin, Parlay i've Got tennessee.

Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
DEAD i told you it's.

Speaker 1 (01:09:34):
Dead, well we still got to do. It we got
to give the people either.

Speaker 2 (01:09:36):
ONE i don't want to give it out, though BECAUSE
I i'd rather do. Favorites let's. WIN i tell, YOU
i bet this. Stuff i'm losing money, Here, chad like legit.

Speaker 1 (01:09:44):
Money, Right let's give a favorite and uh and an
Underdog Tennessee Jets Pats Falcons colts for the underdog.

Speaker 2 (01:09:56):
With The, Falcons no, Way i'm getting that in.

Speaker 1 (01:09:58):
There who do you want to put In.

Speaker 2 (01:10:01):
That's that's. Tough let's go, Uh let's Go.

Speaker 1 (01:10:04):
Vegas, okay all, right, Baby yeah we didn't talk about
that game, much but that's just because The. Lions i'm
Not i'm not as passionate about that. One, uh do
you want to do a favorite parlay at this?

Speaker 2 (01:10:18):
Point, yeah let's get super chalky with. It start out
with our Guys Dallas. Cardinals we like. THEM i think
they're a team that could easily. Win, yeah against That
panthers team that looks like they have real. PROBLEMS i
already talked About. RAMS i just McVeigh wins those. Games
he might not, cover but he wins those, games a
nice little hedge against our own bet WHICH i always

(01:10:38):
love taking those. Spots it's IT'S i know it's painful,
chat but don't we have to do The. LIONS i
was just gonna, say are They lions going? On? Too?

Speaker 1 (01:10:50):
Lions to, me are are automatically in?

Speaker 2 (01:10:52):
There and the last one, AGAIN i want to hear
your view on, it OR i guess you have to Go. Bil,
Nevermind we'll Go. Bills. OKAY i was gonna get real
weird with it and just throw throw in the forty nine.
Ers but let's just avoid the forty nine ers. Game
Let's i'd much rather go The. Bills, Uh.

Speaker 1 (01:11:10):
SURVIVOR i put In, Arizona ravens And lions as the
three TEAMS i would use for.

Speaker 2 (01:11:24):
Survivor, Okay and like the key is we we do
need to start looking at. Now so like week, ONE
i just wanted to. Survive I've i've been busted out
so many of these contests in week one because there's
always that game and that did not. Happen so it's
not guarantee it's gonna. Happen THE nfl has changed in that.
Sense but like, THAT i can't help. It look at

(01:11:44):
all these teams that think who? Which which is the?
One who's the? One SO i think we're on the same,
boat right the the top three this week Is, ravens It's,
dallas It's. Cardinals so, quick look at The cardinals, schedule,
right they get The panther this, year And i'm trying
to find when's the next time we could even potentially
play this, Team, Chad it's kind of, tough like there

(01:12:05):
isn't there isn't much other games like we get they
Get tennessee at home in week. Five that could be
our chance to take The. Cardinals so let's let's put
them aside, then, right because that's say we already able
to look ahead Now tennessee at home for The, cardinals
that's potentially the next, time we could take them this exact.
Spot so let's move them. Out let's go To. Dallas,

(01:12:26):
NOW i don't know if you're The dallas schedule. Up
they have The, giants who could be the worst team
f football at home after starting zero to. ONE i
already told You Dak prescott has won thirteen straight games
against This giants. Team, Now chad, says who? Cares that's
where business. History IF i go, back, though Those giants
teams to me were better than this one currently. Formed
and especially say what you want About Daniel. Jones you

(01:12:49):
know he dominated The commanders for all these. Years like
there's weird things with your divisional, Opponents Tom, Brady we've
all seen the records against these divisional teams that you,
Know Jared off there's certain teams he owns in his,
division like every team has certain. Teams there's no one
ELSE i can find for The Dallas, Chad, Like i'm
looking their. Schedule they're at The. Panthers that's a SPOT

(01:13:09):
i guess we could take, Them but other than, THAT
i just could not find another easy. GAME i, mean
they're at The giants the last week of the. Season
there's just no other. Spots to be With, dallas and
LIKE i told, people we've been burned by. THEM i,
know but it's we either Take dallas. Here we have
to take them next week when they go To, chicago
And chicago they're owning two that's going to be a

(01:13:30):
super desperate team. Potentially so that's just WHY i jumped
out to me about taking them and the last ones.
Again we need to run through At. RAVENS i think
we're in the same page of why we like The ravens.
Here it's like them going oh and. Two we talked
about The raiders exact spot last year they broke up
tons of they busted a. BUNCH i think we got
busted out on it on The. Ravens looking their, SCHEDULE i,

(01:13:55):
Mean i'm bringing up right, NOW i can't find another easy. Spot,
really like they're At cleveland and. Late you, know they
get The bears at home after their bye. Week that
could be A raven. Spot so like we could we
could save them for a week eight This ravens. Team
but that's that's the toughest part with trying to do
these survival. Pools it's like we just want to survive

(01:14:16):
to the next, week but we also need to plan
ahead a little, bit SO i get. People so many
people reach out with The. COWBOYS i get. It no
one wants to see that line drove the four and.
Half that is. Scary BUT i JUST i can't See
dak losing that. Game and it's just when AM i
going to play The cowboys? Again that's they could be
a bad team And dak could get banged up and
then we're just we wasted not taking them a week
Two so people can tell them fighting, it BUT i

(01:14:37):
JUST i think we gotta Go cowboys. SHOT i don't
know where you're at with this, one BUT i Lean.

Speaker 1 (01:14:42):
RAVENS i don't think there's going to be another spot
to play. Them AS i was doing the research this,
morning it felt like to me it came down To
ravens And, cardinals to be. Honest, Wow so if you,
want if you feel that strongly About, DALLAS i just
don't know where we're getting either of these. Teams. DALLAS
i don't know that they would be a team that

(01:15:03):
who DO i want more at the end of the,
year Right AND i don't want anything to do with
The cardinals at any, time but this is sort of
the best time to play.

Speaker 2 (01:15:12):
Them we have to pick eighteen, teams some teams to
save some good.

Speaker 1 (01:15:19):
TEAMS i would Do cardinals Or.

Speaker 2 (01:15:22):
Ravens cardinals Or. Ravens, okay Maybe i'll put a pull,
out see what the fans want to do and try
to fade.

Speaker 1 (01:15:28):
Down, yeah, exactly we. Can we can update On. Sunday,
okay where we're going to land because we're divided on.
This Listen sharp Versus. Square you won last week, handily
so you get to go first this.

Speaker 2 (01:15:41):
Week, God i'll just do it BECAUSE i love this.
Show i'll Go patriots. Plus. WOW i, KNOW i JUST
i don't want to Go, eagles BUT I i JUST
i can't put all my chips on one. Side So
i'll go crazy here and take and just oh my,

(01:16:02):
god That miami.

Speaker 1 (01:16:03):
Team all, Right i'm taking The.

Speaker 2 (01:16:04):
Jets. Uh.

Speaker 1 (01:16:06):
Okay this has Been Sharper, square part of The volume podcast.
Network we will be back On Sharper Square YouTube On sunday,
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Sharp or Square - BEST NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Giants-Cowboys, Seahawks-Steelers, Bears-Lions & more

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