NFL Week 1 is underway and expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunger share their live reactions to the Week 1 slate. Which players stood out in Week 1? Which teams are true contenders this NFL season? They discuss all the big games: Aaron Rodgers leading the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New York Jets, the Green Bay Packers beating the Detroit Lions, and the New York Giants getting beat by the Washington Commanders, and much more.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:39):
All right, Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper especially today,
makes the wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
I am Chad Mellman.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Mike Padre professional Better, Simon Hunter, Ero, Simon Shad.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
How we doing?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (01:05):
This is the first Sunday in a couple years where
I actually feel pretty good about the Sunday Panic. The
way this game for the Titans and the Broncos just
ended should make us feel really good. We have almost
made it through our first Sunday four of five picks down.
We are three and one to start the season, with
(01:27):
one more to go Tonight, Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
We have the Ravens. We like them all week.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
The contest line that we got was one and a half,
but we still both bet them as favorites. We bet
them at minus one. We like him up to minus two.
Still time to grab it. We're going to get into it.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Our last out.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
We're the Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half, Jets, Raiders,
Seahawks a plus two and a half lines a plus
one and a half. Listen, if we had just was
in the Jets of the Raiders, who we had been
in on all week instead of the Dolphins, we would
be undefeated right now, would be four and o. But
as you said, the panic is real. On Sunday, we
(02:10):
overthought a lot of games, but truly a lot of
our logic that we discussed today on the show, which
people could have heard so they would have known exactly
where we landed for the day. About line value that
we discussed. As much as it kept us from putting
the Lion, putting the Jets and the Raiders in, it
(02:32):
also kept us from putting the Lions in. It kept
us from putting the Titans in, who were seven and
a half in the contest, even kept us from putting
the Seahawks in.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So let's see how we did.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Buddy, you ready, I am okay?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
I forgot to keep going. I'm yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
It's all you do is say yes.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Sometimes I can't see you because I'm looking at the
script and so I can't see the screen.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
We're on a roll like that, like just to let
you go.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Thanks buddy, I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Listen, Old habits die hard, so we're going to get
the other went out of the way. This bet completely
makes me sick. What did I say all week? I
said I was not going to make impulsive decisions. I
said I was not going to make bets on Sunday
in the morning because I liked something all week and
felt like the line moved a little bit in my direction,
and I would have avoided the whole thing. I would
(03:20):
have avoided the whole thing if you hadn't brought up
the Miami Dolphins this morning because I was out.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
I wasn't even thinking about it.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
I hadn't bet it, and yet it became a game
that I bet, and it became a game that we
put into the contest.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
What happened to us?
Speaker 3 (03:37):
You said you loved it?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
I said I loved it all week.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
I'm counting on you that what happened to be the
voice of Better Angels. I wasn't even going to bring
it up on the show today this morning.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I skipped it, and then you said to me. You
said to me, what about Miami?
Speaker 4 (03:53):
I would say, I just wanted to out of your
Detroit bet. So in my mind, I was like, okay,
if I'm taking one supery bet, which we said the
tray was a public dog.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
The other game you said you loved is Miami.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
It was okay, okay, I'll make the deal the Devil,
but you know it was gonna be a loss, Like
even the seven and a half with Tennessee, I was
confident in, but I knew, I knew for some reason
one of these games ended up being two of them
were really gonna matter when it came to that number,
and it was the Jets the two and a half,
And obviously Tennessee with the eight and a half could
(04:26):
have played seven and a half in contest, would have
been a loser. And I know it gets annoying to people,
but that's why we are such sticklers about it, getting
the best of the number, try to play as safe
as possible in the contest. And yeah, it was a
bad It was a bad. Look Like again, a lot
of games we love this week. Obviously I wish you'd
love them too. We could have talked ourselves into it,
(04:47):
but you know, Washington, the.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Bucks, Yeah, they were all sitting right there as well.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
Besides our Raiders and Jets love and that's what's so
fun and hard about these contests. Like you know, I
told you for months that I hated Miami, felt Miami
was the worst team in football. You were disgusted, I
mean truly disgusted when I told you I would bet
them pretty pretty heavily to be the worst team in
(05:13):
football twenty to one. And I got where you were
coming from, right, everyone just hated them so much. Sometimes
it goes the other way. This time it did not
Like you said. They were a train wreck from the start.
Everything was just going wrong. And if I'm going to lose,
that's how I want to lose.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Just quick death. It was over.
Speaker 4 (05:30):
Took it out of my four box. Never even put
that game ever back on ever again.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Dead bet, dead bet.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Daniel Jones looked like Johnny Unidis playing for the Colts,
Like Tua was so bad throwing picks fumbles.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
He looked horrible.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Like at one point, at one point I made a
note of this. In the third quarter, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman,
Ty Warren all had more total yards then the entire
Dolphins team. The Dolphins team only had sixty two yards
(06:09):
midway through the second quarter. They all had.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
More yards on their own than the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
It was actually a truly pathetic display of a team
not being ready, of a team getting blown off the
field from the second the game started.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
They were atrocious.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
Yeah, and I think you see what though, I was
trying to warn you about. They don't have a secondary
they don't winn offensive line, and that's gonna be an
absolute problem for that team and what they need to
make it work. So yeah, this show's called Sharper Square.
Our square bet of the week goes to Chad Mollman
and his love for the Miami Dolphins. So we'll see
(06:47):
what the sharp bet was. I got a good feeling,
I know what it is. But that was definitely the
squares bet we made this week. Miami was dead from.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
The Unfortunately it was my square pick and our Sharper
Square had to head in which you had Denver. So
although no you had Tennessee, who did.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You end up having in Tennessee?
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Tennessee at eight and a half. So yeah, man, great,
great day for you. Great you know what you're crushing it?
Speaker 2 (07:13):
You are? You are fantastic.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Oh brother, you.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Spent three months gallivanting traveling the world right in a book.
I was in a hole watching film, crunching numbers, just
to be told I'm a fraud on the internet.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I can't I.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Can't wait to talk about how I've already bet Miami
minus one and a half against the Patriots at home.
All right, the one we nailed Cleveland plus five and
a half. That we loved it from the beginning. This
was your Simon says, I wanted it to be Chad
Love's love. You know, the first drive of the game.
I wasn't even worried, Like this defense was elite against
(07:51):
the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Joe Flacco did.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
We predicted on Tuesday there was going to be a
narrative for this game. The narrative was going to be
Kevin st fan Ski wants Joe Flacco to not screw
up this game. He wants to be conservative, he wants
his defense to dominate. All of those things happened, if
not for a rookie kicker missing an extra point and
a chip shot field goal and drop passes that led
(08:19):
to interceptions from the Browns. The Browns win this game
pretty not handily, but it's not even It's not a
sweat like they were.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
They were the much better team today.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Yeah, and that, to me, that was our sharp bet
of the week. Like that was my flu game. I
was sick as a dog this past week. Tried to
make it work for the show, tried to hide it
the best I could. But just getting back in the book,
being around all these people again, I have to wash
my hands every ten minutes. That's what I'm starting to
realize once I'm getting back into these type of places.
And yeah, this game all week, I just kept betting
(08:56):
it like I would be sick laying ben. I'm like,
I gotta get up. I gotta go bet to Brown's
number again. And you know, Jerry Judy gave me a
run for the money on that game. He had a
couple of huge drops, bad pick off of his hands,
the kicker killing us. I mean, we we win that
game outright on that Brown's money line so many different ways.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Oh my god.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
It just that's what's so sicking about being these dogs
is they just they're bad teams, right, They find ways
to lose. You know, we see the time and time
again that's the difference between teams that went primally and
these teams that just lose like the Browns did today,
where it's like everything that can go wrong goes wrong
and the worst times and Yeah, that's again we talked right,
(09:39):
three and a half is what it probably should have been.
We got two free points, got a little scary right
at certain points, but overall, you never really worried about
the five and a half or five. So yeah, that's
those are the best up of dogs you bet where
it's like you think you're gonna win, you still lose
on the money line, but overall that that number you
bet was just a great number at the plus number.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah, it's true. There was no point in this game where.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
I felt like the bet was really in jeopardy. Joe
Flacco was exactly what you wanted him to be. There
was a drive in the second quarter took about nine minutes.
He was nine of eleven on the drive. Right, they
scored the touchdown. That's when they miss the extra point
(10:22):
to open the fourth quarter. They have back to back
drops on third and fourth down from just inside midfield
on fourth down. It was Judy who led the NFL
in drops last year. But the defense is so freaking
good and this is gonna this is gonna be a
tough one for us this year, Simon, because we like
to bet good defenses.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
There was a series where the.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Bengals were sacked three straight times, two of them by
Miles Garrett. They ended up punting from the back line
of their end zone, and that still could have made
like the game winning play for the Browns if they
had made that freaking field goal. So I don't know
what you think of the Browns, Like we loved it
(11:05):
all week. I think they're already listed as twelve and
a half point dogs to Baltimore next week. So when
we get to our early leans, I have a feeling
that game is going to come up.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
I love the Browns and there'll be a lot of
opportunities this upcoming season to take them when like this week,
people just didn't believe in them. The public love love
the Bengals, and they got very lucky on their teasers
that that number came through and survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yep Jags minus two and a half in the contest,
it closed at four and a half. I think it
was a very physical game to start, but Trevor Lawrence
and Trevor Lawrence's first touchdown pass was a rollout to
a wide open tight end from about the ten yard line.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
The guy was open for ever.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
I actually yelled throw it to him and then of
course like he doesn't even make the touch pass. It's
a little bit too much of a laser.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
But it worked.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
And like before the weather delay, you sort of had
the feeling the Jaguars were what everyone said they were.
They were better physically, they were more talented. I wasn't
that impressed with Trevor Lawrence, like he was, Okay, it'll
be tricky to try to figure out this team and
tricky to figure out the Panthers. I'm gonna have to
watch it. I didn't spend that much time on it
(12:26):
because they were dominating so much. So I don't know
if Bryce Harper was or Bryce Young was just bad,
or if he just has no help whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
Yeah, I thinky went exactly that we predicted. Of the
talent level with the Jaguar seemed compared to that Panthers team.
And you're bet on the Jaguars when their division. I
can see it, like they're not that good, but I
can see a nine to eight win in this division somehow,
And Trevor so much potential, Like you said that, he
(12:56):
just does things that are so bad, like he's so
stupid and like his sometimes you're just like man I
don't get it. I just don't get why he's not
taking that next step. Maybe as time will go on,
he'll get more comfortable this offense and he won't look
as loss as he did at some points today. But
if they had any type of pass rush the Panthers,
there's a couple of times he would have been in
real trouble. Yeah, he could just stand back there, Evey
(13:18):
when he was moving the pocket. They had no one
that could even run him down. He just really had
his way. And it all started to me because of
the run game, and we talked about, you know, the
big upgrade they had to the offense was you know,
their head coach, and the fact that the running game
to me was the difference of this game. They just
really really brand the ball down the throat of this
Panthers defense. And you know, you said it, Bryce Young
(13:40):
struggled mightily in this game, and you know, a little
Warriors and if you believed in the Panthers, he looked
like the bad price from last year of making bad reads,
being laid on throws and staying in the pocket too long.
But like you said, they're just you question, what's that
town around him? So we'll see again he has got
direki receiver Chrue Robin's a good running back. We'll see
(14:01):
if the offense goes along here at Panthers, if they
actually get into a rhythm. They just looked so lost
today and yeah, that's the rare time that this one
jumped out to us. It felt way too easy and
we took it anyway and it was never in doub.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, here's the challenge.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You know that we love to bet teams off a
blowout the following week because they're never as bad as
they looked in the week they were blown out. So
how are we going to manage a conversation about the
Panthers this week? How are we going to manage a
conversation about the Dolphins this week?
Speaker 2 (14:38):
We're going to get into all that with our early
week two.
Speaker 1 (14:42):
Leans and I want to talk a little bit about
how we should be proud of ourselves and some of
our regrets from our conversations, because as you pointed out,
it's not easy to settle on the five, and it's
not easy when you could go six and three on
the day but two and three in a contest, because
(15:03):
it's hard to figure out which games that you feel
best about. So let's take a quick moment before we
get to the week two leans.
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(17:36):
know what I kind of like the theme music for
that ad. It's very tropical. If I were to review,
I think I'm most proud that we never fell prey
to the Panthers at plus three and a half, that
we actually played the Jags followed some line value, even
if that was the last minute move. I'm also really
(17:57):
proud of our conversation this morning that we backed out
of Tennessee because it was at seven and a half,
and that you listened to me about Seattle.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
I thought that was some.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Just excellent communication. As someone who's been married for a
long time, I feel like we exhibited really good open
dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some
really big pitfalls that have plagged us during our relationship.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Yeah, it's a lot of landmines up there, and that's
the hardest part is there, I'm trying to find out which.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
Ones we should be taken, which ones should have been avoiding.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
And you know, I know a lot of really really
smart guys who've bet really heavy today on the Falcons
on the Giants, and I got their reasoning, but it
felt lucky that we were on the other side of those.
And Yeah, the the games, I like you said, the
Games will own will where are the games we missed?
And obviously Raiders Jets Hindsight twenty twenty which we had
(18:54):
those in. But I'll never complain about a three and
one week one and possibility before and one starts.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
So yeah, it.
Speaker 4 (19:01):
Was it was good, good discipline, especially warding the Tennessee
because I loved Tennessee. But again, I told you I
was so invested at eight and a half eight, you know,
knew it was a risk that it could land at
the seven and a half, and it's crazy it really
did land only eight.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
And they should have covered that game.
Speaker 4 (19:18):
Maybe we wanted outright one hundred different ways, but yeah,
the coaching in that game was just brutal. Again, it's
like we talked about, it's these teams that are bad,
you know, It's what happens, right, So that's why we
focused so hard on getting the best of the number.
And yeah, thank god we avoided that one. That'd be
tough to be sitting here too, and too because we
put Tennessee back in.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Well, also it kind of played out the way we
thought it might. On the field. Cam Ward wasn't that
good and he looked like a rookie quarterback playing against
a fierce Fearce pass rush. There was one point where
they were on the twenty five yard line after a
muffed fumble by the Broncos late in the game. They
(19:59):
ended up because he got sacked so many times he
was back on the other side of midfield.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I mean, before half was the most egregious thing.
Speaker 4 (20:07):
They had the ball before half, we'll say forty five
seconds left, and they could have just ran it out
and the like Denver would use their two timeouts, that
would have been the end of the half. They're up
six to three at this point, but for some reason
their mind, they're dropping cam Ward back the pass because
they're gonna steal three points before half and forty seconds
with a rookie quarterback that, like you said, hasn't been
(20:28):
doing much the whole day. That's what I'm talking about.
The coaching. It's like they punt there, two plays, Denver
scores a touchdown, they get lucky on a kickoff, and
they get three there. But you know, you could have
gone into half up six three, you're going to half
down ten to nine. Changes the whole makeup of the game.
So just little things like that. It's like Tennessee, I
believe in them this year when no one else did.
(20:50):
I really planned my flag on this game because of
all the day that backs up betting teams that you know,
struggled last year against the spread versus teams that over
performed against the spread. Came the fruishing this week one.
But yeah, landing right on eight. That's why I love
what we do. It's like, that's crazy that line landed
right on eight, and that the books were just so
(21:11):
sharp with it. And you know it was eight and
a half nine for about what forty eight hours maybe
seventy two hours, So yeah, that was a number that
sat there.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
The public kept taking it.
Speaker 4 (21:23):
And yeah they we got it away with one too.
Like Survivor contest, I'm glad done with the bow Knicks
experience for our Survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
Well, look, that's what that's the other thing is that
he was not very good, terrible, and the Titans defense
was much much better, I think than we expected them to.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Be defensive special teams. I told you both things would
be better.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Jeff dominate to lose the game, right, Jaed, Yeah, he
was bad, Cam Moore, we didn't lose the game, No, No,
that was Will Levis they would have lost by two touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
The what lost the game, honestly was just how dominant
the Broncos defense was. Because bow Knicks didn't win them
the game in any way. He made sort of the
right plays at the end, but he's the whole reason
the Titans were in it to begin with. I want
to do a quick recap on the Jets because they
were fun and chippy and aggressive. They played with the
(22:15):
attitude that we thought Aaron Glenn would bring. And Justin
Fields was kind of awesome. Nine of eleven in the
first half, sixteen or twenty two in the game, Breese
Hall had more than one hundred yards rushing, super physical,
like they were making a point. There was a second
half drive where Justin Field scrambled looked downfield on multiple plays.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
He was accurate.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Then to finish the drive, bullied his way into the
end zone to give the Jets two score lead. After
the Jets gave up the lead, they went right back
down the field Justin Field's a fourth down run to
score a touchdown to give them the lead back. Like
very interesting team. Kudos to you because you were on
this game with the Jets plus three all week, like outstanding.
(23:06):
Loved it, loved watching that game, had so much fun
betting that game.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Yeah, I love Justin Field.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
Justin Field's upside for that team coming the season, But
that was not at all how I truly envisioned that
game going. I thought it would be much more run
heavy from both teams, and you know, immediately turned too
a shootout.
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Like bizarre Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 4 (23:28):
They didn't bring Aaron Rodgers in to win get thirty
two points, right, They brought him in to hopefully manage
the game and then get them in a position and
went the end and he threw for four touchdowns. That
was an incredible game by Rodgers because there was points
of the game where he does look like an old man.
He just makes these like old man mistakes and takes
these bad sacks. But then he'll make throws where it's
(23:48):
like that's vintage Rogers and there's only a handful of
quarterbacks in the history of the league that could ever
make those type of throws. And you know, Justin Field's brutal,
like every chance to win that game played so well.
Once again, the Jets are a bad team. They made
little mistakes got them in the end. That's why they
lost that game, and you know, Tomlin coach, Pittsburgh team
(24:11):
steals that game on the road. And another time where
we talk about how portant the number two is right
landed right on two. Talk all the time in nauseam.
The NFL has changed. It happens every week. It feels
like a number of lands on two. Another spread, really
sharp of the book makers. The public hammered, absolutely hammered
Pittsburgh minus two and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So yeah, the books.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Cleaned up today and we usually that's when we clean
up as well. So that was a really nice spot
for them and a really nice number. And I again,
I'm still shot Pittsburgh won that game. I just thought
the Jets played so much better. I can't believe they
didn't close it out the end.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Yeah, I think if we looked back at that game,
looked back at at the Browns game, you'll be shocked
that those two teams were the winners because they really
kind of dominated the games. To review from the week,
Simon says, was the Browns they covered Chad Love's Love
(25:11):
was Detroit.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
They did not. The first half.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
They were much better than the score indicated. But the
Packers were just dominant, like defensively, they were pretty amazing
and there were enough times where Jordan Love was able
to find holes in the Lions defense. Lions dropped interception,
Alexandeloni dropped interception that could have been critical. They had
a penalty on an interception from Brian Branch that he
(25:37):
ran back for a.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Touchdown, So tough spots for them. That's going to be
a game.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
We got to look at it a little more deeply
to figure out what we think of Detroit brass Balls Tennessee.
We had them basically at eight and a half, so
good for them, good for us. Rock in a hard
place Bet Baltimore were on him as a very short
favorite tonight, so that'll be the key to getting to
five hundred on those four critical titled bets. Let's talk
(26:07):
about some early Lean Simons quickly bad news because New
England at Miami. I checked this line at about five
forty five and it was one and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Miami. First bet I made. Don't tell me.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
It's square, I get it. It's up to two and
a half pretty much across the board. Hard rock bet
two and a half. I bet this game up to three,
Like you're gonna have to lean Miami after such a
bad showing in Week one.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I will, but I'm not forcing them. There's zero chance
some letting you put in the contest. So like again,
I I've.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Given out my opinion. I've made my stand on Miami.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Chad has gone right back to the stove to touch
the stove one more time on this Miami Dolphins team.
Even though I explain to him exactly why you're not
going to be a terrible team this season.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
You're telling me that at one and a half, you
wouldn't play the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
I don't care if the Dolphins are a three point dog,
this line moves five points. I wouldn't let you put
this into the contest. I try to teach you a
lesson today and I clearly did not work.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
So it didn't work.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
It didn't work.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
So no, I mean, I get where you're coming from.
They're up to minus two at hard Rock. Yeah, Miami,
it's gonna be the professional side. I just I got
no interest in this team. And yeah, even if they
come through, I won't let us get sucked into this
trend of like them always been undervalued this year because
you know people the public is going to be like me,
They're totally out on this team.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
They just looked to a.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Look totally lost, but that just overall they look like
they have no will or desire to be out there.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
They got they got Big Boy today.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
It was bad. It was pretty bad.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
They really did look like they hadn't spent any time
preparing the past month. It was astonishingly bad, which is
when you bet that team. The following week, Philadelphia at
Kansas City, these were just a couple of games that,
like I noticed, I'm gonna want you to give me
some of years too. Kansas City is only a one
(28:08):
and a half point favorite at home. They look terrible
on Friday Night. I do wonder how much of that
had to do with Xavier Worthy, who's going to be
such a critical part of their game plan, being knocked
out immediately. Though we have a history of wanting to
bet the Chiefs at certain numbers when they are less
than a three point favorite or a dog, it did
(28:30):
not work out for us in the Super Bowl. We
have the Chargers in the contest at three and a half.
That worked out for us this past week. I'd rather
be a little bit late on fading the Chiefs and
one and a half feels a little too late for me.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
I agree.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
I think this number is what you just talked about's
respect for past years. And this is a team that
is down there number one and number two wide receiver
when they were already struggling offensively.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
And Pachecko just Pachecko's now what he used to be.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
He is talented, but he's he just looks a little slower,
and that offensive line doesn't look like they're that great
at blocking. And the Eagles are coming off an extended
rest from home, like they were at home after their
game on Thursday. This Chiefs team was flying back from Brazil,
and you know that's a big deal for a week one, right,
you lose that type of game. Now you're in a
(29:23):
long flight home, not getting back till Saturday.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
You know, yes, that's not.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
A short week, but it's not extended rest like the
Eagles are coming off. And I think the Eagles last week,
they might have won that game. I don't think they're
going to treat it as such this upcoming week in practice, right,
I think they know they got away with one, and
they played really slop in the second half. So this
number at hard Rock is already up to plus one Chiefs.
So I'm gonna grab the Eagles now and I'll maybe
(29:51):
take a big position and buy back later on the
Chiefs if that becomes you know, if this gets up
to plus three, I don't have a choice at that point.
This is gonna move too much and I'll take that
value on this Chiefs team. But it's it's scary, like
it's someone that likes this chief team wants to back them,
you know, like that worthy thing that's there could have
(30:11):
been a more important player to that offense.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
If you don't want Hollywood Brown.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
And Juju Smith Schuscher to be your number one and
two receivers, that's a scary spot to be in right
now for that offense. So yeah, Mahomes in that game
was incredible honestly against the Chargers. Like the stuff he does,
it's just it's a constant reminder why he is the
best quarterback in football and he has nothing around him
right now. And it's it's a team that we're gonna
have a ton of value on later in the season,
(30:35):
especially where if they are you know, three and six
or four and six at some point and everyone's kind
of them out.
Speaker 3 (30:42):
I'll love them once they get everyone back and they're healthy.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
But as they stand right now, Chad, this is the
team I'm looking to take a position against with this
early number. And you know, if you can get Egos
that plus number, I'd take it. We're just giving out
hard rock right now, and that's minus one.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
Las Vegas is a three and a half point home
hunder dog against the Chargers. I feel like the Chargers
are overvalued right now because of beating the Chiefs, who
we just discussed I think are a little bit diminished
in terms of quality and health. The Raiders are now
(31:17):
getting to go home and they're playing inside where Gino
can be elite. The only reason I would hesitate right
now is brock Powers. He left the game with the
knee injury. He's tried to go back in they wouldn't
let him. Generally, I think there is optimism he will play.
(31:38):
What do you think of get in the hook?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
I hate it? Yeah, you can grab it now if
you want to.
Speaker 4 (31:42):
I mean, that's obviously a really nice spot, and you
know it's a standalone game, so I'm with you. I
feel like the public will keep coming on the Chargers
so we can grab the three and a half now.
But that's also a line that could keep going up.
Like I just said, if Bowers is out, you know
the public they're going to be taking a heavy position.
I see them parlaying them the Bucks that back to
back game on Monday nights.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
So yeah, i'd like your early read here plus three
and a half. That's good value.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
All right? What am I missing?
Speaker 1 (32:10):
I got Sincy minus five and a half against the Jags.
I like Cincy is an early lean. Cleveland plus twelve
and a half against Baltimore in Baltimore that feels egregious.
Jets plus eight and a half at home versus Buffalo.
Both of those feel way too big, and I'm trying
(32:31):
not to be sort of overly biased based on what
we saw today.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
Yeah, I'll just talk again because we have two slitty
two ships come this week. I'll just talk about the
lines that jumped out right away to me from you
know what hard Rock put up. And when I first
went to their page, I was gonna think to myself,
what will they make the lines before the Bears play?
Speaker 3 (32:55):
And I was shocked. They hung a minus four and
a half and.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
You know, lines at home minus four and a half
against a Bears team that could, but me and chat
think should be happening is them having a very emotional
win on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Maybe you get better value.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
But if they get rolled here, this number could easily
get up to six and a half. Like this line's
number could shoot up if this Barrier's team does not
look right and doesn't look prepared. So that's a number
that you know, jumped out. I grabbed it just thinking
the public most likely wouldn't be in the Lions. We'll
see another line that jumped out that you know. I
grabbed it just because we talked about the key number
(33:33):
of two and a half Seahawks. I'm going back to
the well, they're playing Pittsburgh and crazy ending to their
game like just an insane, flucish end. And I think
the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick. Honestly,
if they would have won that game at home, I
think they would have got more respect from the general public.
It feels like we're getting a free point and a
half two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh.
(33:58):
They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack
on their defense, like their secondary is banged up. They
have major issues if they have a really banged up secondary.
Because Justin Fields looked like an all Pro passer.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
That's a problem.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
So just looking at this matchup a really favorites the
Seahawks team, the fact that they're coming off this type
of brutal loss. You know, I'm not going to make
the rush to take this one. Just know this is
a position I'm already taking that.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
You know, just like the Jets.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot.
Could see this growing up to three, three and a half,
and Chad knows the deal. Tomlin at home is a favorite.
Once he crosses three, that is not a position you
want it being. Usually he loses those type of games.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
So the one thing I would say about Seattle, we
worried about their offensive line. Their offensive line was not
very good today, and the Steelers still have a good
pass rush. They gotten Justin Field's grill a lot today.
Like the whole reason the Seahawks lost that game is
because the Niners were able to rush. They got into
(34:58):
Sam Darnolds grill and forced to fumble when they were
at the ten yard line.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
It's fair.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
I mean, I thought their offense is pretty good, but yeah,
it's it was a tough matchup. I mean, they had
a dumb fumble by their wide receiver, like a lot
of things just didn't work their way. And yeah, I
thought they played well run blocking. I felt they did better.
But we'll see, we'll see what this line moves tough.
So yeah, if you don't want it, that's honestly make
me like it even more.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
I'll be honest with you, Jeff, You're right.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
At it right now. That feels dismissive.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I'm just gonna say it for the show. I'm just good.
I'm happy you like Pittsburgh and you have doubts about this.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
I don't. I'm not saying I like Pittsburgh. I'm just
saying I'm not sold on Seattle.
Speaker 4 (35:42):
You're gonna pass on it for the contest, You're gonna
pass on it for better.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
You are just feeling yourself right now?
Speaker 1 (35:49):
Man?
Speaker 2 (35:51):
What else? What else is on your little list?
Speaker 4 (35:54):
These are just again games that jump out to me
where it's like, I'm shocked about the public.
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Early line value.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
And besides, they love and it's gonna be this Colt
side against this Broncos team culture plus three. I'm shocked
they are plus three at books right now. Like I
couldn't believe Hard Rock put up Colts plus three. So
they're giving me the Saints from last year day jevous.
I don't know if we're gonna keep riding this Colts team,
(36:23):
but as they stand, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
I feel like that's a good spot to.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Back them against the Denver team that the public they're
gonna come back and bet them next week like they don't.
I don't think they're gonna be worried about them. And
to me, these two teams, as I say right now,
they're not that different stylistically. But yeah, I just I
don't know if I'm going to force us into it.
There's another line that's gross. I'm not gonna make us
take a chat, but I think you're gonna be the
same page with me. The Panthers, they're up to six
(36:49):
and a half against that Cardinals team that could have
lost a million different ways to the Saints today. So
I know, people, I was hoping we've maybe waited a
week or two for our Cardinals. I mean, our Panthers love,
that's egregious. Six and a half against that Cardinals team
is egregious after they just got blown out. Like I know,
we're gonna find some crazy stats about these teams. I
got rolled. Yeah, Panthers are gonna fit into that. So
(37:12):
just early bet. I've already bet at hard Rock here
plus six and a half, give me the Panthers.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
I honestly had the Panthers in the script. I don't
know if you saw it, and I skipped it just
because I was I was so embarrassed to say it.
I thought you were gonna treat me the way you
just did about Seattle, and so I just didn't want
to bring it up.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So I'm glad. I'm glad you said it.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
We got it. It's just a game.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
I know, come Thursday, I'm probably really gonna get warm
to I just everything for that Cardinals game is exactly
why I have my doubts about them. It's just Kyler
just looks so totally Yeah. So yeah, that's that's crazy.
It's gone up to six and a half. And again,
I'm just gonna throw a little on because I'll be patient, Like,
if the public really loves this Cardinals team and we
(37:59):
can get a seven here, seven and a half of
our contest, it might be on avoidable putting this one
in next week.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Yeah, all right, So that's the lineup that we're thinking about.
Those are our early leans. Reminder, we got the Ravens tonight.
That will be the close out for our contest. We
are three and one. We won with the Chargers, we
one with the Browns, we won with the Jags, we
lost on the Dolphins. We'd like the Ravens to finish
(38:27):
four and one for our five best today. This has
been Sharper Square presented by hard Rock Bet. We're part
of the Volume podcast network. We will be back with
our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the
entire NFL Slate Watcher listen on YouTube a sharp or
Square like this video.
Speaker 2 (38:44):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get
your pods because most importantly, rate review because feedback is
always a gift and it helps meet the show easier
to find for everyone.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
Until next time, I Love you
All right, Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper especially today,
makes the wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
I am Chad Mellman.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Mike Padre professional Better, Simon Hunter, Ero, Simon Shad.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
How we doing?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
You know what?
Speaker 1 (01:05):
This is the first Sunday in a couple years where
I actually feel pretty good about the Sunday Panic. The
way this game for the Titans and the Broncos just
ended should make us feel really good. We have almost
made it through our first Sunday four of five picks down.
We are three and one to start the season, with
(01:27):
one more to go Tonight, Sunday Night Football.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
We have the Ravens. We like them all week.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
The contest line that we got was one and a half,
but we still both bet them as favorites. We bet
them at minus one. We like him up to minus two.
Still time to grab it. We're going to get into it.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Our last out.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
We're the Tennessee Titans plus seven and a half, Jets, Raiders,
Seahawks a plus two and a half lines a plus
one and a half. Listen, if we had just was
in the Jets of the Raiders, who we had been
in on all week instead of the Dolphins, we would
be undefeated right now, would be four and o. But
as you said, the panic is real. On Sunday, we
(02:10):
overthought a lot of games, but truly a lot of
our logic that we discussed today on the show, which
people could have heard so they would have known exactly
where we landed for the day. About line value that
we discussed. As much as it kept us from putting
the Lion, putting the Jets and the Raiders in, it
(02:32):
also kept us from putting the Lions in. It kept
us from putting the Titans in, who were seven and
a half in the contest, even kept us from putting
the Seahawks in.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So let's see how we did.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Buddy, you ready, I am okay?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
I forgot to keep going. I'm yeah.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
It's all you do is say yes.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Sometimes I can't see you because I'm looking at the
script and so I can't see the screen.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
We're on a roll like that, like just to let
you go.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Thanks buddy, I appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Listen, Old habits die hard, so we're going to get
the other went out of the way. This bet completely
makes me sick. What did I say all week? I
said I was not going to make impulsive decisions. I
said I was not going to make bets on Sunday
in the morning because I liked something all week and
felt like the line moved a little bit in my direction,
and I would have avoided the whole thing. I would
(03:20):
have avoided the whole thing if you hadn't brought up
the Miami Dolphins this morning because I was out.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
I wasn't even thinking about it.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
I hadn't bet it, and yet it became a game
that I bet, and it became a game that we
put into the contest.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
What happened to us?
Speaker 3 (03:37):
You said you loved it?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
I said I loved it all week.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
I'm counting on you that what happened to be the
voice of Better Angels. I wasn't even going to bring
it up on the show today this morning.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
I skipped it, and then you said to me. You
said to me, what about Miami?
Speaker 4 (03:53):
I would say, I just wanted to out of your
Detroit bet. So in my mind, I was like, okay,
if I'm taking one supery bet, which we said the
tray was a public dog.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
The other game you said you loved is Miami.
Speaker 4 (04:05):
It was okay, okay, I'll make the deal the Devil,
but you know it was gonna be a loss, Like
even the seven and a half with Tennessee, I was
confident in, but I knew, I knew for some reason
one of these games ended up being two of them
were really gonna matter when it came to that number,
and it was the Jets the two and a half,
And obviously Tennessee with the eight and a half could
(04:26):
have played seven and a half in contest, would have
been a loser. And I know it gets annoying to people,
but that's why we are such sticklers about it, getting
the best of the number, try to play as safe
as possible in the contest. And yeah, it was a
bad It was a bad. Look Like again, a lot
of games we love this week. Obviously I wish you'd
love them too. We could have talked ourselves into it,
(04:47):
but you know, Washington, the.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
Bucks, Yeah, they were all sitting right there as well.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
Besides our Raiders and Jets love and that's what's so
fun and hard about these contests. Like you know, I
told you for months that I hated Miami, felt Miami
was the worst team in football. You were disgusted, I
mean truly disgusted when I told you I would bet
them pretty pretty heavily to be the worst team in
(05:13):
football twenty to one. And I got where you were
coming from, right, everyone just hated them so much. Sometimes
it goes the other way. This time it did not
Like you said. They were a train wreck from the start.
Everything was just going wrong. And if I'm going to lose,
that's how I want to lose.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Just quick death. It was over.
Speaker 4 (05:30):
Took it out of my four box. Never even put
that game ever back on ever again.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Dead bet, dead bet.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Daniel Jones looked like Johnny Unidis playing for the Colts,
Like Tua was so bad throwing picks fumbles.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
He looked horrible.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Like at one point, at one point I made a
note of this. In the third quarter, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman,
Ty Warren all had more total yards then the entire
Dolphins team. The Dolphins team only had sixty two yards
(06:09):
midway through the second quarter. They all had.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
More yards on their own than the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
It was actually a truly pathetic display of a team
not being ready, of a team getting blown off the
field from the second the game started.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
They were atrocious.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
Yeah, and I think you see what though, I was
trying to warn you about. They don't have a secondary
they don't winn offensive line, and that's gonna be an
absolute problem for that team and what they need to
make it work. So yeah, this show's called Sharper Square.
Our square bet of the week goes to Chad Mollman
and his love for the Miami Dolphins. So we'll see
(06:47):
what the sharp bet was. I got a good feeling,
I know what it is. But that was definitely the
squares bet we made this week. Miami was dead from.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
The Unfortunately it was my square pick and our Sharper
Square had to head in which you had Denver. So
although no you had Tennessee, who did.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You end up having in Tennessee?
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Tennessee at eight and a half. So yeah, man, great,
great day for you. Great you know what you're crushing it?
Speaker 2 (07:13):
You are? You are fantastic.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Oh brother, you.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
Spent three months gallivanting traveling the world right in a book.
I was in a hole watching film, crunching numbers, just
to be told I'm a fraud on the internet.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
I can't I.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
Can't wait to talk about how I've already bet Miami
minus one and a half against the Patriots at home.
All right, the one we nailed Cleveland plus five and
a half. That we loved it from the beginning. This
was your Simon says, I wanted it to be Chad
Love's love. You know, the first drive of the game.
I wasn't even worried, Like this defense was elite against
(07:51):
the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Joe Flacco did.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
We predicted on Tuesday there was going to be a
narrative for this game. The narrative was going to be
Kevin st fan Ski wants Joe Flacco to not screw
up this game. He wants to be conservative, he wants
his defense to dominate. All of those things happened, if
not for a rookie kicker missing an extra point and
a chip shot field goal and drop passes that led
(08:19):
to interceptions from the Browns. The Browns win this game
pretty not handily, but it's not even It's not a
sweat like they were.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
They were the much better team today.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Yeah, and that, to me, that was our sharp bet
of the week. Like that was my flu game. I
was sick as a dog this past week. Tried to
make it work for the show, tried to hide it
the best I could. But just getting back in the book,
being around all these people again, I have to wash
my hands every ten minutes. That's what I'm starting to
realize once I'm getting back into these type of places.
And yeah, this game all week, I just kept betting
(08:56):
it like I would be sick laying ben. I'm like,
I gotta get up. I gotta go bet to Brown's
number again. And you know, Jerry Judy gave me a
run for the money on that game. He had a
couple of huge drops, bad pick off of his hands,
the kicker killing us. I mean, we we win that
game outright on that Brown's money line so many different ways.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Oh my god.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
It just that's what's so sicking about being these dogs
is they just they're bad teams, right, They find ways
to lose. You know, we see the time and time
again that's the difference between teams that went primally and
these teams that just lose like the Browns did today,
where it's like everything that can go wrong goes wrong
and the worst times and Yeah, that's again we talked right,
(09:39):
three and a half is what it probably should have been.
We got two free points, got a little scary right
at certain points, but overall, you never really worried about
the five and a half or five. So yeah, that's
those are the best up of dogs you bet where
it's like you think you're gonna win, you still lose
on the money line, but overall that that number you
bet was just a great number at the plus number.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah, it's true. There was no point in this game where.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
I felt like the bet was really in jeopardy. Joe
Flacco was exactly what you wanted him to be. There
was a drive in the second quarter took about nine minutes.
He was nine of eleven on the drive. Right, they
scored the touchdown. That's when they miss the extra point
(10:22):
to open the fourth quarter. They have back to back
drops on third and fourth down from just inside midfield
on fourth down. It was Judy who led the NFL
in drops last year. But the defense is so freaking
good and this is gonna this is gonna be a
tough one for us this year, Simon, because we like
to bet good defenses.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
There was a series where the.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Bengals were sacked three straight times, two of them by
Miles Garrett. They ended up punting from the back line
of their end zone, and that still could have made
like the game winning play for the Browns if they
had made that freaking field goal. So I don't know
what you think of the Browns, Like we loved it
(11:05):
all week. I think they're already listed as twelve and
a half point dogs to Baltimore next week. So when
we get to our early leans, I have a feeling
that game is going to come up.
Speaker 3 (11:19):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
I love the Browns and there'll be a lot of
opportunities this upcoming season to take them when like this week,
people just didn't believe in them. The public love love
the Bengals, and they got very lucky on their teasers
that that number came through and survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yep Jags minus two and a half in the contest,
it closed at four and a half. I think it
was a very physical game to start, but Trevor Lawrence
and Trevor Lawrence's first touchdown pass was a rollout to
a wide open tight end from about the ten yard line.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
The guy was open for ever.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
I actually yelled throw it to him and then of
course like he doesn't even make the touch pass. It's
a little bit too much of a laser.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
But it worked.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
And like before the weather delay, you sort of had
the feeling the Jaguars were what everyone said they were.
They were better physically, they were more talented. I wasn't
that impressed with Trevor Lawrence, like he was, Okay, it'll
be tricky to try to figure out this team and
tricky to figure out the Panthers. I'm gonna have to
watch it. I didn't spend that much time on it
(12:26):
because they were dominating so much. So I don't know
if Bryce Harper was or Bryce Young was just bad,
or if he just has no help whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
Yeah, I thinky went exactly that we predicted. Of the
talent level with the Jaguar seemed compared to that Panthers team.
And you're bet on the Jaguars when their division. I
can see it, like they're not that good, but I
can see a nine to eight win in this division somehow,
And Trevor so much potential, Like you said that, he
(12:56):
just does things that are so bad, like he's so
stupid and like his sometimes you're just like man I
don't get it. I just don't get why he's not
taking that next step. Maybe as time will go on,
he'll get more comfortable this offense and he won't look
as loss as he did at some points today. But
if they had any type of pass rush the Panthers,
there's a couple of times he would have been in
real trouble. Yeah, he could just stand back there, Evey
(13:18):
when he was moving the pocket. They had no one
that could even run him down. He just really had
his way. And it all started to me because of
the run game, and we talked about, you know, the
big upgrade they had to the offense was you know,
their head coach, and the fact that the running game
to me was the difference of this game. They just
really really brand the ball down the throat of this
Panthers defense. And you know, you said it, Bryce Young
(13:40):
struggled mightily in this game, and you know, a little
Warriors and if you believed in the Panthers, he looked
like the bad price from last year of making bad reads,
being laid on throws and staying in the pocket too long.
But like you said, they're just you question, what's that
town around him? So we'll see again he has got
direki receiver Chrue Robin's a good running back. We'll see
(14:01):
if the offense goes along here at Panthers, if they
actually get into a rhythm. They just looked so lost
today and yeah, that's the rare time that this one
jumped out to us. It felt way too easy and
we took it anyway and it was never in doub.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, here's the challenge.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You know that we love to bet teams off a
blowout the following week because they're never as bad as
they looked in the week they were blown out. So
how are we going to manage a conversation about the
Panthers this week? How are we going to manage a
conversation about the Dolphins this week?
Speaker 2 (14:38):
We're going to get into all that with our early
week two.
Speaker 1 (14:42):
Leans and I want to talk a little bit about
how we should be proud of ourselves and some of
our regrets from our conversations, because as you pointed out,
it's not easy to settle on the five, and it's
not easy when you could go six and three on
the day but two and three in a contest, because
(15:03):
it's hard to figure out which games that you feel
best about. So let's take a quick moment before we
get to the week two leans.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Let's hear from our.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
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(17:36):
know what I kind of like the theme music for
that ad. It's very tropical. If I were to review,
I think I'm most proud that we never fell prey
to the Panthers at plus three and a half, that
we actually played the Jags followed some line value, even
if that was the last minute move. I'm also really
(17:57):
proud of our conversation this morning that we backed out
of Tennessee because it was at seven and a half,
and that you listened to me about Seattle.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
I thought that was some.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Just excellent communication. As someone who's been married for a
long time, I feel like we exhibited really good open
dialogue to come to consensus about how to avoid some
really big pitfalls that have plagged us during our relationship.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Yeah, it's a lot of landmines up there, and that's
the hardest part is there, I'm trying to find out which.
Speaker 3 (18:30):
Ones we should be taken, which ones should have been avoiding.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
And you know, I know a lot of really really
smart guys who've bet really heavy today on the Falcons
on the Giants, and I got their reasoning, but it
felt lucky that we were on the other side of those.
And Yeah, the the games, I like you said, the
Games will own will where are the games we missed?
And obviously Raiders Jets Hindsight twenty twenty which we had
(18:54):
those in. But I'll never complain about a three and
one week one and possibility before and one starts.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
So yeah, it.
Speaker 4 (19:01):
Was it was good, good discipline, especially warding the Tennessee
because I loved Tennessee. But again, I told you I
was so invested at eight and a half eight, you know,
knew it was a risk that it could land at
the seven and a half, and it's crazy it really
did land only eight.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
And they should have covered that game.
Speaker 4 (19:18):
Maybe we wanted outright one hundred different ways, but yeah,
the coaching in that game was just brutal. Again, it's
like we talked about, it's these teams that are bad,
you know, It's what happens, right, So that's why we
focused so hard on getting the best of the number.
And yeah, thank god we avoided that one. That'd be
tough to be sitting here too, and too because we
put Tennessee back in.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
Well, also it kind of played out the way we
thought it might. On the field. Cam Ward wasn't that
good and he looked like a rookie quarterback playing against
a fierce Fearce pass rush. There was one point where
they were on the twenty five yard line after a
muffed fumble by the Broncos late in the game. They
(19:59):
ended up because he got sacked so many times he
was back on the other side of midfield.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I mean, before half was the most egregious thing.
Speaker 4 (20:07):
They had the ball before half, we'll say forty five
seconds left, and they could have just ran it out
and the like Denver would use their two timeouts, that
would have been the end of the half. They're up
six to three at this point, but for some reason
their mind, they're dropping cam Ward back the pass because
they're gonna steal three points before half and forty seconds
with a rookie quarterback that, like you said, hasn't been
(20:28):
doing much the whole day. That's what I'm talking about.
The coaching. It's like they punt there, two plays, Denver
scores a touchdown, they get lucky on a kickoff, and
they get three there. But you know, you could have
gone into half up six three, you're going to half
down ten to nine. Changes the whole makeup of the game.
So just little things like that. It's like Tennessee, I
believe in them this year when no one else did.
(20:50):
I really planned my flag on this game because of
all the day that backs up betting teams that you know,
struggled last year against the spread versus teams that over
performed against the spread. Came the fruishing this week one.
But yeah, landing right on eight. That's why I love
what we do. It's like, that's crazy that line landed
right on eight, and that the books were just so
(21:11):
sharp with it. And you know it was eight and
a half nine for about what forty eight hours maybe
seventy two hours, So yeah, that was a number that
sat there.
Speaker 3 (21:21):
The public kept taking it.
Speaker 4 (21:23):
And yeah they we got it away with one too.
Like Survivor contest, I'm glad done with the bow Knicks
experience for our Survivor contest.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
Well, look, that's what that's the other thing is that
he was not very good, terrible, and the Titans defense
was much much better, I think than we expected them to.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Be defensive special teams. I told you both things would
be better.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Jeff dominate to lose the game, right, Jaed, Yeah, he
was bad, Cam Moore, we didn't lose the game, No, No,
that was Will Levis they would have lost by two touchdowns.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Right.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
The what lost the game, honestly was just how dominant
the Broncos defense was. Because bow Knicks didn't win them
the game in any way. He made sort of the
right plays at the end, but he's the whole reason
the Titans were in it to begin with. I want
to do a quick recap on the Jets because they
were fun and chippy and aggressive. They played with the
(22:15):
attitude that we thought Aaron Glenn would bring. And Justin
Fields was kind of awesome. Nine of eleven in the
first half, sixteen or twenty two in the game, Breese
Hall had more than one hundred yards rushing, super physical,
like they were making a point. There was a second
half drive where Justin Field scrambled looked downfield on multiple plays.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
He was accurate.
Speaker 1 (22:39):
Then to finish the drive, bullied his way into the
end zone to give the Jets two score lead. After
the Jets gave up the lead, they went right back
down the field Justin Field's a fourth down run to
score a touchdown to give them the lead back. Like
very interesting team. Kudos to you because you were on
this game with the Jets plus three all week, like outstanding.
(23:06):
Loved it, loved watching that game, had so much fun
betting that game.
Speaker 3 (23:10):
Yeah, I love Justin Field.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
Justin Field's upside for that team coming the season, But
that was not at all how I truly envisioned that
game going. I thought it would be much more run
heavy from both teams, and you know, immediately turned too
a shootout.
Speaker 3 (23:25):
Like bizarre Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 4 (23:28):
They didn't bring Aaron Rodgers in to win get thirty
two points, right, They brought him in to hopefully manage
the game and then get them in a position and
went the end and he threw for four touchdowns. That
was an incredible game by Rodgers because there was points
of the game where he does look like an old man.
He just makes these like old man mistakes and takes
these bad sacks. But then he'll make throws where it's
(23:48):
like that's vintage Rogers and there's only a handful of
quarterbacks in the history of the league that could ever
make those type of throws. And you know, Justin Field's brutal,
like every chance to win that game played so well.
Once again, the Jets are a bad team. They made
little mistakes got them in the end. That's why they
lost that game, and you know, Tomlin coach, Pittsburgh team
(24:11):
steals that game on the road. And another time where
we talk about how portant the number two is right
landed right on two. Talk all the time in nauseam.
The NFL has changed. It happens every week. It feels
like a number of lands on two. Another spread, really
sharp of the book makers. The public hammered, absolutely hammered
Pittsburgh minus two and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:31):
So yeah, the books.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Cleaned up today and we usually that's when we clean
up as well. So that was a really nice spot
for them and a really nice number. And I again,
I'm still shot Pittsburgh won that game. I just thought
the Jets played so much better. I can't believe they
didn't close it out the end.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
Yeah, I think if we looked back at that game,
looked back at at the Browns game, you'll be shocked
that those two teams were the winners because they really
kind of dominated the games. To review from the week,
Simon says, was the Browns they covered Chad Love's Love
(25:11):
was Detroit.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
They did not. The first half.
Speaker 1 (25:16):
They were much better than the score indicated. But the
Packers were just dominant, like defensively, they were pretty amazing
and there were enough times where Jordan Love was able
to find holes in the Lions defense. Lions dropped interception,
Alexandeloni dropped interception that could have been critical. They had
a penalty on an interception from Brian Branch that he
(25:37):
ran back for a.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
Touchdown, So tough spots for them. That's going to be
a game.
Speaker 1 (25:41):
We got to look at it a little more deeply
to figure out what we think of Detroit brass Balls Tennessee.
We had them basically at eight and a half, so
good for them, good for us. Rock in a hard
place Bet Baltimore were on him as a very short
favorite tonight, so that'll be the key to getting to
five hundred on those four critical titled bets. Let's talk
(26:07):
about some early Lean Simons quickly bad news because New
England at Miami. I checked this line at about five
forty five and it was one and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:20):
Miami. First bet I made. Don't tell me.
Speaker 1 (26:24):
It's square, I get it. It's up to two and
a half pretty much across the board. Hard rock bet
two and a half. I bet this game up to three,
Like you're gonna have to lean Miami after such a
bad showing in Week one.
Speaker 4 (26:42):
I will, but I'm not forcing them. There's zero chance
some letting you put in the contest. So like again,
I I've.
Speaker 3 (26:48):
Given out my opinion. I've made my stand on Miami.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
Chad has gone right back to the stove to touch
the stove one more time on this Miami Dolphins team.
Even though I explain to him exactly why you're not
going to be a terrible team this season.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
You're telling me that at one and a half, you
wouldn't play the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
I don't care if the Dolphins are a three point dog,
this line moves five points. I wouldn't let you put
this into the contest. I try to teach you a
lesson today and I clearly did not work.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
So it didn't work.
Speaker 3 (27:16):
It didn't work.
Speaker 4 (27:18):
So no, I mean, I get where you're coming from.
They're up to minus two at hard Rock. Yeah, Miami,
it's gonna be the professional side. I just I got
no interest in this team. And yeah, even if they
come through, I won't let us get sucked into this
trend of like them always been undervalued this year because
you know people the public is going to be like me,
They're totally out on this team.
Speaker 3 (27:37):
They just looked to a.
Speaker 4 (27:39):
Look totally lost, but that just overall they look like
they have no will or desire to be out there.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
They got they got Big Boy today.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
It was bad. It was pretty bad.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
They really did look like they hadn't spent any time
preparing the past month. It was astonishingly bad, which is
when you bet that team. The following week, Philadelphia at
Kansas City, these were just a couple of games that,
like I noticed, I'm gonna want you to give me
some of years too. Kansas City is only a one
(28:08):
and a half point favorite at home. They look terrible
on Friday Night. I do wonder how much of that
had to do with Xavier Worthy, who's going to be
such a critical part of their game plan, being knocked
out immediately. Though we have a history of wanting to
bet the Chiefs at certain numbers when they are less
than a three point favorite or a dog, it did
(28:30):
not work out for us in the Super Bowl. We
have the Chargers in the contest at three and a half.
That worked out for us this past week. I'd rather
be a little bit late on fading the Chiefs and
one and a half feels a little too late for me.
Speaker 3 (28:45):
I agree.
Speaker 4 (28:46):
I think this number is what you just talked about's
respect for past years. And this is a team that
is down there number one and number two wide receiver
when they were already struggling offensively.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
And Pachecko just Pachecko's now what he used to be.
Speaker 4 (29:02):
He is talented, but he's he just looks a little slower,
and that offensive line doesn't look like they're that great
at blocking. And the Eagles are coming off an extended
rest from home, like they were at home after their
game on Thursday. This Chiefs team was flying back from Brazil,
and you know that's a big deal for a week one, right,
you lose that type of game. Now you're in a
(29:23):
long flight home, not getting back till Saturday.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
You know, yes, that's not.
Speaker 4 (29:27):
A short week, but it's not extended rest like the
Eagles are coming off. And I think the Eagles last week,
they might have won that game. I don't think they're
going to treat it as such this upcoming week in practice, right,
I think they know they got away with one, and
they played really slop in the second half. So this
number at hard Rock is already up to plus one Chiefs.
So I'm gonna grab the Eagles now and I'll maybe
(29:51):
take a big position and buy back later on the
Chiefs if that becomes you know, if this gets up
to plus three, I don't have a choice at that point.
This is gonna move too much and I'll take that
value on this Chiefs team. But it's it's scary, like
it's someone that likes this chief team wants to back them,
you know, like that worthy thing that's there could have
(30:11):
been a more important player to that offense.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
If you don't want Hollywood Brown.
Speaker 4 (30:14):
And Juju Smith Schuscher to be your number one and
two receivers, that's a scary spot to be in right
now for that offense. So yeah, Mahomes in that game
was incredible honestly against the Chargers. Like the stuff he does,
it's just it's a constant reminder why he is the
best quarterback in football and he has nothing around him
right now. And it's it's a team that we're gonna
have a ton of value on later in the season,
(30:35):
especially where if they are you know, three and six
or four and six at some point and everyone's kind
of them out.
Speaker 3 (30:42):
I'll love them once they get everyone back and they're healthy.
Speaker 4 (30:44):
But as they stand right now, Chad, this is the
team I'm looking to take a position against with this
early number. And you know, if you can get Egos
that plus number, I'd take it. We're just giving out
hard rock right now, and that's minus one.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
Las Vegas is a three and a half point home
hunder dog against the Chargers. I feel like the Chargers
are overvalued right now because of beating the Chiefs, who
we just discussed I think are a little bit diminished
in terms of quality and health. The Raiders are now
(31:17):
getting to go home and they're playing inside where Gino
can be elite. The only reason I would hesitate right
now is brock Powers. He left the game with the
knee injury. He's tried to go back in they wouldn't
let him. Generally, I think there is optimism he will play.
(31:38):
What do you think of get in the hook?
Speaker 3 (31:40):
I hate it? Yeah, you can grab it now if
you want to.
Speaker 4 (31:42):
I mean, that's obviously a really nice spot, and you
know it's a standalone game, so I'm with you. I
feel like the public will keep coming on the Chargers
so we can grab the three and a half now.
But that's also a line that could keep going up.
Like I just said, if Bowers is out, you know
the public they're going to be taking a heavy position.
I see them parlaying them the Bucks that back to
back game on Monday nights.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
So yeah, i'd like your early read here plus three
and a half. That's good value.
Speaker 2 (32:08):
All right? What am I missing?
Speaker 1 (32:10):
I got Sincy minus five and a half against the Jags.
I like Cincy is an early lean. Cleveland plus twelve
and a half against Baltimore in Baltimore that feels egregious.
Jets plus eight and a half at home versus Buffalo.
Both of those feel way too big, and I'm trying
(32:31):
not to be sort of overly biased based on what
we saw today.
Speaker 4 (32:39):
Yeah, I'll just talk again because we have two slitty
two ships come this week. I'll just talk about the
lines that jumped out right away to me from you
know what hard Rock put up. And when I first
went to their page, I was gonna think to myself,
what will they make the lines before the Bears play?
Speaker 3 (32:55):
And I was shocked. They hung a minus four and
a half and.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
You know, lines at home minus four and a half
against a Bears team that could, but me and chat
think should be happening is them having a very emotional
win on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (33:10):
Maybe you get better value.
Speaker 4 (33:12):
But if they get rolled here, this number could easily
get up to six and a half. Like this line's
number could shoot up if this Barrier's team does not
look right and doesn't look prepared. So that's a number
that you know, jumped out. I grabbed it just thinking
the public most likely wouldn't be in the Lions. We'll
see another line that jumped out that you know. I
grabbed it just because we talked about the key number
(33:33):
of two and a half Seahawks. I'm going back to
the well, they're playing Pittsburgh and crazy ending to their
game like just an insane, flucish end. And I think
the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick. Honestly,
if they would have won that game at home, I
think they would have got more respect from the general public.
It feels like we're getting a free point and a
half two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh.
(33:58):
They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack
on their defense, like their secondary is banged up. They
have major issues if they have a really banged up secondary.
Because Justin Fields looked like an all Pro passer.
Speaker 3 (34:09):
That's a problem.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
So just looking at this matchup a really favorites the
Seahawks team, the fact that they're coming off this type
of brutal loss. You know, I'm not going to make
the rush to take this one. Just know this is
a position I'm already taking that.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
You know, just like the Jets.
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot.
Could see this growing up to three, three and a half,
and Chad knows the deal. Tomlin at home is a favorite.
Once he crosses three, that is not a position you
want it being. Usually he loses those type of games.
Speaker 1 (34:37):
So the one thing I would say about Seattle, we
worried about their offensive line. Their offensive line was not
very good today, and the Steelers still have a good
pass rush. They gotten Justin Field's grill a lot today.
Like the whole reason the Seahawks lost that game is
because the Niners were able to rush. They got into
(34:58):
Sam Darnolds grill and forced to fumble when they were
at the ten yard line.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
It's fair.
Speaker 4 (35:06):
I mean, I thought their offense is pretty good, but yeah,
it's it was a tough matchup. I mean, they had
a dumb fumble by their wide receiver, like a lot
of things just didn't work their way. And yeah, I
thought they played well run blocking. I felt they did better.
But we'll see, we'll see what this line moves tough.
So yeah, if you don't want it, that's honestly make
me like it even more.
Speaker 3 (35:26):
I'll be honest with you, Jeff, You're right.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
At it right now. That feels dismissive.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I'm just gonna say it for the show. I'm just good.
I'm happy you like Pittsburgh and you have doubts about this.
Speaker 1 (35:37):
I don't. I'm not saying I like Pittsburgh. I'm just
saying I'm not sold on Seattle.
Speaker 4 (35:42):
You're gonna pass on it for the contest, You're gonna
pass on it for better.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
You are just feeling yourself right now?
Speaker 1 (35:49):
Man?
Speaker 2 (35:51):
What else? What else is on your little list?
Speaker 4 (35:54):
These are just again games that jump out to me
where it's like, I'm shocked about the public.
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Early line value.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
And besides, they love and it's gonna be this Colt
side against this Broncos team culture plus three. I'm shocked
they are plus three at books right now. Like I
couldn't believe Hard Rock put up Colts plus three. So
they're giving me the Saints from last year day jevous.
I don't know if we're gonna keep riding this Colts team,
(36:23):
but as they stand, I don't know.
Speaker 3 (36:26):
I feel like that's a good spot to.
Speaker 4 (36:27):
Back them against the Denver team that the public they're
gonna come back and bet them next week like they don't.
I don't think they're gonna be worried about them. And
to me, these two teams, as I say right now,
they're not that different stylistically. But yeah, I just I
don't know if I'm going to force us into it.
There's another line that's gross. I'm not gonna make us
take a chat, but I think you're gonna be the
same page with me. The Panthers, they're up to six
(36:49):
and a half against that Cardinals team that could have
lost a million different ways to the Saints today. So
I know, people, I was hoping we've maybe waited a
week or two for our Cardinals. I mean, our Panthers love,
that's egregious. Six and a half against that Cardinals team
is egregious after they just got blown out. Like I know,
we're gonna find some crazy stats about these teams. I
got rolled. Yeah, Panthers are gonna fit into that. So
(37:12):
just early bet. I've already bet at hard Rock here
plus six and a half, give me the Panthers.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
I honestly had the Panthers in the script. I don't
know if you saw it, and I skipped it just
because I was I was so embarrassed to say it.
I thought you were gonna treat me the way you
just did about Seattle, and so I just didn't want
to bring it up.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
So I'm glad. I'm glad you said it.
Speaker 3 (37:36):
We got it. It's just a game.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
I know, come Thursday, I'm probably really gonna get warm
to I just everything for that Cardinals game is exactly
why I have my doubts about them. It's just Kyler
just looks so totally Yeah. So yeah, that's that's crazy.
It's gone up to six and a half. And again,
I'm just gonna throw a little on because I'll be patient, Like,
if the public really loves this Cardinals team and we
(37:59):
can get a seven here, seven and a half of
our contest, it might be on avoidable putting this one
in next week.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Yeah, all right, So that's the lineup that we're thinking about.
Those are our early leans. Reminder, we got the Ravens tonight.
That will be the close out for our contest. We
are three and one. We won with the Chargers, we
one with the Browns, we won with the Jags, we
lost on the Dolphins. We'd like the Ravens to finish
(38:27):
four and one for our five best today. This has
been Sharper Square presented by hard Rock Bet. We're part
of the Volume podcast network. We will be back with
our next Sharper Square on Tuesday to go over the
entire NFL Slate Watcher listen on YouTube a sharp or
Square like this video.
Speaker 2 (38:44):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get
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to find for everyone.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
Until next time, I Love you
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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