September 28, 2025 • 24 mins
NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter select their final five betting picks for NFL Week 4. They select their top best bets for against the spread picks to enter in their weekly NFL contest. Games covered today include Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens vs Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints vs Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills, and the LA Chargers vs the new-look New York Giants under Jaxson Dart. Do they have what it takes to fade the red-hot Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams? Are the Cleveland Browns cooked vs the Detroit Lions? And will the Philadelphia Eagles fade late vs Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? All these questions answered in this fast-paced episode! #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bets. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
NFL betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I
am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Myke combined for a professional better Simon Hunter, and Simon
(00:26):
I am great brother. This is the stripped down in
the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I
are going to try to nail down the five picks,
the final five picks. Now that we've seen injuries, we've
seen line moves, everything, we need to make the best
possible decision. Simon, are you ready?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
All right?
Speaker 1 (00:52):
These are the games we zered in on the other day,
and for better for worse, not a ton of moves
that have an impacting I think our decisions on the
field and in the markets. Let's start with the Chargers.
So the Chargers are now six and a half at
the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting
(01:13):
for the Giants. This was Chad loves and I think
it's one of the more controversial moves that we made
all week, just because we don't know what's gonna happen
with Jackson Dark. Jackson Dart as the news starting quarterback
for the Giants, and it's so freaking chalky to be
(01:33):
taken a big favorite. I still like him at six
and a half. I've bet him at six and a half.
I am not walking away from that. The good news
is in our contest that we play the Chargers at
five and a half, which makes me feel even better.
Even though you know the percentage difference is not that big.
I still like it at five and a half.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah, I'm gonna trust you and trust the number. I
think we're both in the same page where yeah, exactly
exactly right, where we know Dark could come in and
be the spark and you know, do some of those
Chargers defense they just can't prepare for right, This is
a unique opportunity for him. They have no film on him,
(02:17):
and you know, like Chad said, it's it's the squarest
pick we could we could possibly make. Every pro I
know is on the other side, and me and Chad
know this though. Every week they're going to be on
the Giant side. So try not to overthink it, try
to stay true to ourselves that we're just playing the
number here, and I feel like you nailed. If this
was six and a half, I could probably talk us
out of it. But a five and a half with
(02:38):
that little bit of wiggle room, can alige on myself
and say at least for getting a good number here.
And I'm just happy it's a road, it's a team
on the road because right now, like Chad knows, I'm
just in love with these home teams right now, So
chalk on the road in this spot, I'll go with
you on it. It's it's it's a unique spot because
I just think this Charger's defense, even with all their injuries,
(03:02):
you know, they they should be able to handle this
kid Dart And you know the questions right now the
put the Pros are attack on the giant side is
the injuries to the Chargers offensive line. And you saw
last week you can't get after Herbert, but you just
see it being a big Hampton kind of game where
they just lean on the running game finally take it
out of Herbert's hand, and.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
This is going to be an interesting game to watch.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I'm not gonna lie chat, so five and a half,
I am on board with you. Even at six, I
bet the Chargers. So I'm invested, like I'm invested in
this chalk side, and we say it all the time,
chalk does win.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hopefully on this this is the right time we pick it.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
I think it's one of the games that scared me
most all year, even more than the Eagles, you know,
as the home favorites against the Rams last week. I've
loved this game and hated this game. Oftentimes, when you
get locked in in a game, you all of a
sudden realize comes Sunday morning, how did it not see this?
How do not see the other side? And I'm worried
(03:59):
about that for the Chargers. But we're there. We're in
five and a half in the contest. Six and a
half is the bet that I've made. You made it
at six Philadelphia, Tampa. We've been talking about it all week.
Beat up Bucks team at home, getting the ever important hook,
beat up Eagles team on the road, getting the early
money that pushed this up. It's three and a half everywhere,
(04:24):
It's three and a half in our contest. We're gonna
want to be on the bus and Baker at the hook.
Any reason to be walking away from this right now?
Speaker 3 (04:36):
The only one I can think of is it's too easy.
I can't believe they're giving us the hooks still. Like
even this morning, I woke up and I was thinking,
you know the way, it's still three and a half,
or I should say, on Saturday, I woke up thinking
it's just me three and a half. And then last night,
late night, I was like, okay, this will move to
three now that all these guys are getting cleared. Still
hasn't budge Still three and a half, and the Eagles
are still taking a ton of money.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
So yeah, this is the sharp side for sure.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
The square side is the Eagles, but the sharps are
on the Eagles as well. There's there's some respective money
clearly on the Eagles side that's keeping this number propped up. So,
like we said, we're just gonna trust the number. Eagles,
you know, warranted, they're the defending champs, they're really talented.
The Bucks are banged up. We know that, we know
we're been into, right, we got Baker that has a
(05:22):
banged up tri step, all these things, he's got injuries.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
You know, God wins first game back.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
But I just like the matchups and defensively, I like
the matchups for the Bucks team. I think that's something
the public is overlooking, that that's the strength. This Bucks
team matches up really well with what the Eagles want
to do. And we'll see maybe Hurts. Hurts can do
it again and put the ball downfield, but I think
he's gonna see that Todd Bowles defense which has always
given them problems.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
You know, the pushback we've I've.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Heard from fans, especially locally after I do the show,
is that the Eagles didn't have a j Brown for
for those matchups, and that's a big difference. And I
agree that is a big deal. But you just look
at the way Todd Bowles plays Hurts. It feels like
he has his number and it all starts with Via
Tovey stopping the run. And yeah, I'm I'm really just
playing the number here. Three and a half just feels
(06:09):
like too many points, too much disrespect to a Bucks team.
So I know it's scary. Me and Chat talked about
we're betting these two first teams. We just talked about
both these teams are three and zero against the spread
or I guess the Bucks didn't cover last week. But Chadows,
I mean, we've been we've been in undefeated teams right
now for our first two picks.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
But I just love the number. I don't know about you.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I just love the number with Baker in this spot
that if he does lose, I just can't see me
buying more than three. He keeps games close. You can
never count him out. So the Eagles when to beat
us here, they're gonna have to blow out this Bucks team,
which I just don't see happening.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, look, look to me, this is a little bit
like you in the Chargers. I like it. I don't
love it. I like the three and a half. I
like the Tristan Wurfs. The left tackle is back, considering
the other injuries on Tampa Bay, I like that guy
when his back, considering Evans is out. I never worry
about Baker and injuries because Baker's balls no matter what.
(07:04):
And I do think it's it's a good spot to
fade the Eagles, who are probably to me a little
bit inflated after what happened last week against the Rams.
So I don't love it. I like it. I don't
know that we have five better games, to be honest.
So that's that's also what I'm thinking about Cleveland at Detroit.
The game was at eight and a half, it got
(07:25):
up to nine, it got up to nine and a
half in some places, it's ten. In our contest right
now it's at nine and a half. I'm just going
to say one thing. I'm not sure that matters. Like
we can talk about we wish we were getting an
eight and a half, with which we were getting a nine.
Two percent of NFL games end on nine six percent
(07:48):
and on ten, right, So I don't want to talk
myself out of this because of a half point difference
in a number that isn't as key as the ten,
which we're still under. And I know wise guys have
been betting this up at the nine and a half
because there's a lot of places this number is a ten.
So it was our brass balls. Are we crazy for
(08:13):
still wanting the Lions at nine and a half?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
No, let's be a quick one. Love the lines. Nothing's changed. No.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Some pros on the other side that like Cleveland, and
I get it, But I think our early reading the
week was right. It's still right today and I'll own it.
Don't if you're not as confident this When I'm really confident,
I'll own it later tonight if this hasn't come through.
But this is like my probably one of my bigger
bets is this Lion's side in this spot. And you
know there are nine and a half's out there people,
(08:40):
so go grab it, get it below the ten, and yeah,
I love it for our contest. It's it's very like
we said, we're very chalky this week. It's another pick.
I just I love that's chalky.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Yeah, I actually am with you. I totally love it.
I'm trying to figure out why I don't love it.
I'm trying to talk myself out of it because it's
a big number and it's chalky, but it's just it
keeps moving in the Lions direction, and it was moving
before Sunday morning when all the public is piling in.
(09:10):
It's been moving that way all week with wise Guy
Money a little bit of pushback, but generally Wise Guy
Money pushing it up. So if we're getting under the ten,
I feel like this is this is the most confident
play we have so far of the three games we've
talked about, easily the most confident play that we have.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Yeah, really respected Money came in heavy on the Browns
once they hit ten. And a half, so they'll let
you know the pros they are on the Browns. But
I just I really like this line side and the
fact that a lot of books right now are heavy
Cleveland side just shows the public is you know, they're
bought in on that Cleveland team, right they just that
was such a huge win last week. I'm shocked to
(09:50):
see that there's so much public love for that Cleveland side.
And this is going to be, like we said, there's
gonna be his exact teams. This is a prime example
of his exac team. This Browns team at home on
grass is going to be a totally different team than
especially in this spot indoors on this turf where we've
seen this Lions team. They're humming right now, So I'm
glad we're in sink here.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Brother.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Also, the one thing I've been thinking a lot about
this game, obviously, it's my biggest bet of the week too,
probably at a bigger scale than you, Simon, because that's
the kind of numbers I play. But the one thing
that people are forgetting we loved the Browns last week.
We love the spot last week. The Packers had crazy
injuries on the offensive line throughout that game that made
(10:32):
them completely ineffective. So I don't want that to be
forgotten as a reason why I'm liking the Lions so
much as I think they're healthy. They're playing at home,
they're on turf. It's just a better spot to me
for the Lions than the Browns. Last week when we
nailed it Indy at the Los Angeles Rams three and
a half across the board. It has not come down.
(10:54):
I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet.
I'm still hoping as we get closer to kick off.
If I got to eat it and I miss the
number and I get the four, I'll live with it
and it pushes fine, But I'm really trying to be
patient and wait for the three. We're not going to
have that option in the contest. It's three and a half,
you know. Do we believe the Rams or the team
(11:16):
that could have been beaten the Eagles and are three
and zero if they hadn't been so conservative and the
Eagles hadn't found their rhythm? Do we believe the Cults
are the team that could be two and one if
they hadn't gotten that penalty against the Broncos at the
end of the game, and being able to kick an
extra field goal attempt to win the game against the
Broncos and if otherwise beaten up on bad teams. Are
(11:38):
we going to have to completely readjust our power ratings
after this game? Simon, this is one of your biggest bets.
Are we still into the Rams?
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yeah? Still love them, But same as you where.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
I have other games I bet a lot on as well,
and I like them just as much. And if we
do pick the Rams out, I'd be okay with it
because there's other games I do love. Like I said,
I didn't realize that I'm very heavy on these four
o'clock games and all these home teams. So yeah, this
(12:12):
is just another team. But I think they're being undervalued.
But like we talked about this cold team, they're scary
to bet against right now just because they are such
a juggernaut and we've seen a million ways that they
could keep this close. But I just have to trust
that they are a better team that I've played much
tougher teams, and we're selling a Colts team that is
at its peak level. But yeah, Chat, it's I get
(12:34):
your hesitation. Like you said, I'm shocked to threes then
pop just because there's so much love and respect right
now with this cold team in the professional community.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
I thought for sure they'd bet this down.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
I mean handful of books right now, it's all Colts money,
and this number is just held even randomly. It'd pop
three and then it'd go right back up to three
and a half. So I get your hesitation. I have
a little bit hesitation as well, like I guess this
would be our fifth one right now in my opinion
that I'm looking at our five picks. But I'm still confident,
still believing it. I just I have a hard time
(13:05):
trying to keep selling you on it where it's like
you know where I'm at. I just think the culture
overrated a little bit here, a little inflated on the line,
and that the Rams have the weapons to attack this team.
And the only hesitation is DeVonta Adams popped up on
the injury report. I still think that's just something they
have to report. I have no doubt he's gonna be
playing today, so to me, the Rams offense full go
(13:27):
bounce back spot after our brutal loss last week.
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(15:21):
All right, So on the fence about the Rams, we
still like the Chargers, we still like the Bucks, We
still like the Lions. So these are some games we
can choose from and tell me if I'm missing anything.
Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is three and a half.
We've liked it at three. We like the brock Purty
is playing. We're less concerned about the lack of Nick Bosa,
(15:44):
even though he's been driving the pressure for this nine
Ers defense. So obviously they have a lot to prove
against the Jacksonville pass game that if they aren't dropping
the ball can potentially be effective. To me, this is
a bet on sala, a bet against Trevor Lawrence, bet
on party, a bet against the Jags, who we don't
think have played competition and aren't that good yet. But
(16:06):
do we like him better than the Rams? Do we
like him better than any other other teams? At three
and a half?
Speaker 2 (16:11):
No?
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Like again, I told you I'm heavy on the four
o'clock games. This is probably I bet it. I'm on
the four and ies. This is probably my least bet
of all these four o'clock games.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Baltimore at Kansas City. I gotta tell you I don't
want to do this one.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Now. You're scared of it.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I'm a little bit scared. Well. I also think there's
one more game that I want to talk about that
I think might just be better value. Right, But if
you're super confident, tell.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Me now I am, like I'm confidence sense that like
I believe in this number, believe in this team, the
matchup for the Chiefs, and that this Ravens team. I
know people think the Chiefs have more problems, right, now,
but I think the Ravens have more problems and this
number just scares me for the exact same reason as you.
It's we're betting against Lamar where we know he has
(16:59):
the better offense. It's right now, and we're kind of
betting on them that you know, they easily could be undefeated,
right a couple of fluky fumbles by Derrick Henry.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
So are we betting a bad number?
Speaker 3 (17:10):
Could me and Chad be having a three and a
half and we're taking a two and a half Where
it's not that grave number, it's just it's an interesting line,
and it's it's very divided where the public is very
very heavy on this Raven side, and once again makes
me more confident in my chief side.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
And I two did last night. I think it was one.
In the morning, the number went to two at.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Hard Rock, So some really respected money came in took
this number down to two at hard Rock, and like
I'm here in Jersey right now, it's back up to
two and a half. But that just shows that the
pros they're all aligned, they're all on this Chief side.
The public is very aligned, they're all on this Raven side.
So matchup wise, I think Worthy coming back is a
(17:49):
huge deal, and I just got to believe in Mahomes
this scenario that, yeah, that Eagles team that beat them.
You saw, there's a million other ways the Chiefs could
have covered, right, Like they kind of gave that game away.
So I don't know. I just have to believe in
this Chiefs team and believe the number. It's just I
have it at a pick. It's two and a half
(18:09):
chat So to me, I get where you're coming from too,
Like this is based on my model whereas a human
on the same point as you where it's like, I'm
sick to my stomach. Can we find other games to love?
But unfortunately for me, this is probably gonna be one
of my three biggest bets of the week. I just
I really really love this chief side and this number.
But yeah, like I said, there's other games I love too,
So if you don't love that one, we'll find we
(18:30):
can find something else to get in here.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
If you don't love.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
It, well, look, I don't mind being overruled. I just
want to make sure that we're having the full conversation.
So the other one I want to talk about, and
then I want to hear what you have to say
Chicago at the Raiders. This is a tricky one because
the line had been bouncing back and forth, back and forth.
All week. It's now Raiders minus one and a half.
As recently as yesterday it was essentially pick maybe Raiders
(18:53):
minus a half in the contest. It locked at Raiders
plus one and a half. That feels like a lot
out of value to get in the contest for a
game that we've generally liked all week.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
Yeah, and I don't. It's just like the Bears last week.
I told you the Bears line at flipped. The Bears
were still a bad line last week. I didn't really
care because I'm kind of learning here. The these contests
try to scare you off when these lines do flip
like this, and it's like, try not to overreact to it.
This Raiders line, like I said last week or on Sunday,
love them because they were a dog, like you said
our contest. Now they are still technically a dog, but
(19:29):
it's really just about the matchup. Like I just think
there's many ways for this defense on the Raiders to attack.
You know, Kille Williams AT's really good when he has
no pressure. When he does have pressure. Seams are struggling offensively,
They've had a really tough go with running the ball.
This Raiders team, this is the perfect team and the
Bears to get right with your run game. They just
(19:49):
they are bad against their runs. So I love the matchup,
love the match up for this Raiders team, and I
hate to do it till my guy chat having ruined
against his own team. But I'm rooted against my own
team this week, so I feel like it's it's fair
enough to ask them to take this number in. Yeah,
if you like this more than the Chiefs, I got
no issue with us getting in because it is a
better line value, and you know it's it's a good
(20:13):
spot for this Raiders team. It's two bad teams and
the public really believes in one bad team. And it's clear,
like I'm looking at the splits right now, it's all
Bears money, So it's not it's not the spot you
want to be with the Bears were last week. When
no one believes in the Bears, they're left for dead.
I think we're starting to learn that's when you want
to back this Bears team, not when they're coming off
(20:34):
a huge win and everyone's blowing smoke up their ass
for a week. And this Raiders team with Pete Carroll,
this is the This is that. Like I said earlier year,
there's gonnay spots. We're gonna want it back. This Raiders team.
This feels like a spot where veteran quarterback, veteran coach,
they should bounce back here. And if they lose this game,
I mean it's it's crazy sake of September, but your
(20:54):
your season is officially over Vegas if you cannot win
this game, and this because your division is brutal like
they have to. You have to beat the Bears at
home in this spot. So yeah, give me the Raiders
plus one and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Chat. I'm glad you're on board with this one, all right.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
So to me, it's Chargers plus minus five and a half,
Bucks plus three and a half, Lions minus nine and
a half, Raiders plus one and a half for our fifth.
Unless there's ones I'm missing, we're debating between Rams minus
three and a half or Chiefs Chiefs plus two and
a half. Who am I missing? In a quick thirty seconds.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
No, that's literally the original five. I had in switch
the Raiders for the Chiefs. So that was I put
our five in on Thursday for our show, and that's
what I try to stay true to who we are,
and I like you. We're staying with our picks. The
only one we're really wavering on is our Chiefs or
Raiders and Rams. So now it's Chiefs or Rams, and
(21:51):
I'll leave it up to you because again, I like
both sides. You know, to me, I guess the one
I feel more confident about.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Out at the end of the day.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
It would be taking Stafford against Daniel Jones and assuming
that the Colt team could.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Falter completely agree. Like when I thought you were going
to say, you leave it up to me, and.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
I was going to say, yeah, whatever one you want
to go.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
No, No, I want to leave it up to you.
We're taking the Rams minus three and a half. We're
in agreement, you both. We both feel more confident about
the Rams. So here are the final five in the contest.
These are the contest lines LA Chargers minus five and
a half. It is six and a half. Now, I
still like the Chargers at six and a half. If
(22:35):
you are listening or watching Chargers six and a half
in the contest at five and a half Bucks plus
three and a half contest and otherwise Detroit minus nine
and a half contest and otherwise Rams minus three and
a half across the board contest, Raiders plus one and
a half. We're taking advantage of the contest that we
play in again, this is a contest, private contest Simon
(22:57):
and I play in at the Raiders locked at one
and a half point underdogs, we're taking it. All right,
that's it, brother.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
Well and we'll just say we're nothing's changed. We're on
Houston for Survivor people. I know it's it's it's gross,
it's risky, it's by for the riskest pick you can
make this week.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
But like we said, we got to trust the situation.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
It's a desperate team, divisional game at home against the
Tennessee team that has a bunch of problems. I know
the coach said he gave up calling offensive plays. Whatever
he's doing. I don't know if that's the fix. They
just have so many issues. So I know it's it's gross,
but Houston, the zero to three Houston team is our
Survivor pick this week.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
All right.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight
live at seven point thirty or as soon as the
late afternoon games and to recap all the misery and
glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube at
Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe also download some Spotify
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(24:02):
leaf leaf five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift. Until next time, Love you, m m hm
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bets. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
NFL betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I
am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Myke combined for a professional better Simon Hunter, and Simon
(00:26):
I am great brother. This is the stripped down in
the room eavesdropping version of Sharper Square. Simon and I
are going to try to nail down the five picks,
the final five picks. Now that we've seen injuries, we've
seen line moves, everything, we need to make the best
possible decision. Simon, are you ready?
Speaker 2 (00:52):
All right?
Speaker 1 (00:52):
These are the games we zered in on the other day,
and for better for worse, not a ton of moves
that have an impacting I think our decisions on the
field and in the markets. Let's start with the Chargers.
So the Chargers are now six and a half at
the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting
(01:13):
for the Giants. This was Chad loves and I think
it's one of the more controversial moves that we made
all week, just because we don't know what's gonna happen
with Jackson Dark. Jackson Dart as the news starting quarterback
for the Giants, and it's so freaking chalky to be
(01:33):
taken a big favorite. I still like him at six
and a half. I've bet him at six and a half.
I am not walking away from that. The good news
is in our contest that we play the Chargers at
five and a half, which makes me feel even better.
Even though you know the percentage difference is not that big.
I still like it at five and a half.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah, I'm gonna trust you and trust the number. I
think we're both in the same page where yeah, exactly
exactly right, where we know Dark could come in and
be the spark and you know, do some of those
Chargers defense they just can't prepare for right, This is
a unique opportunity for him. They have no film on him,
(02:17):
and you know, like Chad said, it's it's the squarest
pick we could we could possibly make. Every pro I
know is on the other side, and me and Chad
know this though. Every week they're going to be on
the Giant side. So try not to overthink it, try
to stay true to ourselves that we're just playing the
number here, and I feel like you nailed. If this
was six and a half, I could probably talk us
out of it. But a five and a half with
(02:38):
that little bit of wiggle room, can alige on myself
and say at least for getting a good number here.
And I'm just happy it's a road, it's a team
on the road because right now, like Chad knows, I'm
just in love with these home teams right now, So
chalk on the road in this spot, I'll go with
you on it. It's it's it's a unique spot because
I just think this Charger's defense, even with all their injuries,
(03:02):
you know, they they should be able to handle this
kid Dart And you know the questions right now the
put the Pros are attack on the giant side is
the injuries to the Chargers offensive line. And you saw
last week you can't get after Herbert, but you just
see it being a big Hampton kind of game where
they just lean on the running game finally take it
out of Herbert's hand, and.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
This is going to be an interesting game to watch.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
I'm not gonna lie chat, so five and a half,
I am on board with you. Even at six, I
bet the Chargers. So I'm invested, like I'm invested in
this chalk side, and we say it all the time,
chalk does win.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Hopefully on this this is the right time we pick it.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
I think it's one of the games that scared me
most all year, even more than the Eagles, you know,
as the home favorites against the Rams last week. I've
loved this game and hated this game. Oftentimes, when you
get locked in in a game, you all of a
sudden realize comes Sunday morning, how did it not see this?
How do not see the other side? And I'm worried
(03:59):
about that for the Chargers. But we're there. We're in
five and a half in the contest. Six and a
half is the bet that I've made. You made it
at six Philadelphia, Tampa. We've been talking about it all week.
Beat up Bucks team at home, getting the ever important hook,
beat up Eagles team on the road, getting the early
money that pushed this up. It's three and a half everywhere,
(04:24):
It's three and a half in our contest. We're gonna
want to be on the bus and Baker at the hook.
Any reason to be walking away from this right now?
Speaker 3 (04:36):
The only one I can think of is it's too easy.
I can't believe they're giving us the hooks still. Like
even this morning, I woke up and I was thinking,
you know the way, it's still three and a half,
or I should say, on Saturday, I woke up thinking
it's just me three and a half. And then last night,
late night, I was like, okay, this will move to
three now that all these guys are getting cleared. Still
hasn't budge Still three and a half, and the Eagles
are still taking a ton of money.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
So yeah, this is the sharp side for sure.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
The square side is the Eagles, but the sharps are
on the Eagles as well. There's there's some respective money
clearly on the Eagles side that's keeping this number propped up. So,
like we said, we're just gonna trust the number. Eagles,
you know, warranted, they're the defending champs, they're really talented.
The Bucks are banged up. We know that, we know
we're been into, right, we got Baker that has a
(05:22):
banged up tri step, all these things, he's got injuries.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
You know, God wins first game back.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
But I just like the matchups and defensively, I like
the matchups for the Bucks team. I think that's something
the public is overlooking, that that's the strength. This Bucks
team matches up really well with what the Eagles want
to do. And we'll see maybe Hurts. Hurts can do
it again and put the ball downfield, but I think
he's gonna see that Todd Bowles defense which has always
given them problems.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
You know, the pushback we've I've.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Heard from fans, especially locally after I do the show,
is that the Eagles didn't have a j Brown for
for those matchups, and that's a big difference. And I
agree that is a big deal. But you just look
at the way Todd Bowles plays Hurts. It feels like
he has his number and it all starts with Via
Tovey stopping the run. And yeah, I'm I'm really just
playing the number here. Three and a half just feels
(06:09):
like too many points, too much disrespect to a Bucks team.
So I know it's scary. Me and Chat talked about
we're betting these two first teams. We just talked about
both these teams are three and zero against the spread
or I guess the Bucks didn't cover last week. But Chadows,
I mean, we've been we've been in undefeated teams right
now for our first two picks.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
But I just love the number. I don't know about you.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I just love the number with Baker in this spot
that if he does lose, I just can't see me
buying more than three. He keeps games close. You can
never count him out. So the Eagles when to beat
us here, they're gonna have to blow out this Bucks team,
which I just don't see happening.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
Yeah, look, look to me, this is a little bit
like you in the Chargers. I like it. I don't
love it. I like the three and a half. I
like the Tristan Wurfs. The left tackle is back, considering
the other injuries on Tampa Bay, I like that guy
when his back, considering Evans is out. I never worry
about Baker and injuries because Baker's balls no matter what.
(07:04):
And I do think it's it's a good spot to
fade the Eagles, who are probably to me a little
bit inflated after what happened last week against the Rams.
So I don't love it. I like it. I don't
know that we have five better games, to be honest.
So that's that's also what I'm thinking about Cleveland at Detroit.
The game was at eight and a half, it got
(07:25):
up to nine, it got up to nine and a
half in some places, it's ten. In our contest right
now it's at nine and a half. I'm just going
to say one thing. I'm not sure that matters. Like
we can talk about we wish we were getting an
eight and a half, with which we were getting a nine.
Two percent of NFL games end on nine six percent
(07:48):
and on ten, right, So I don't want to talk
myself out of this because of a half point difference
in a number that isn't as key as the ten,
which we're still under. And I know wise guys have
been betting this up at the nine and a half
because there's a lot of places this number is a ten.
So it was our brass balls. Are we crazy for
(08:13):
still wanting the Lions at nine and a half?
Speaker 2 (08:16):
No, let's be a quick one. Love the lines. Nothing's changed. No.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Some pros on the other side that like Cleveland, and
I get it, But I think our early reading the
week was right. It's still right today and I'll own it.
Don't if you're not as confident this When I'm really confident,
I'll own it later tonight if this hasn't come through.
But this is like my probably one of my bigger
bets is this Lion's side in this spot. And you
know there are nine and a half's out there people,
(08:40):
so go grab it, get it below the ten, and yeah,
I love it for our contest. It's it's very like
we said, we're very chalky this week. It's another pick.
I just I love that's chalky.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Yeah, I actually am with you. I totally love it.
I'm trying to figure out why I don't love it.
I'm trying to talk myself out of it because it's
a big number and it's chalky, but it's just it
keeps moving in the Lions direction, and it was moving
before Sunday morning when all the public is piling in.
(09:10):
It's been moving that way all week with wise Guy
Money a little bit of pushback, but generally Wise Guy
Money pushing it up. So if we're getting under the ten,
I feel like this is this is the most confident
play we have so far of the three games we've
talked about, easily the most confident play that we have.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
Yeah, really respected Money came in heavy on the Browns
once they hit ten. And a half, so they'll let
you know the pros they are on the Browns. But
I just I really like this line side and the
fact that a lot of books right now are heavy
Cleveland side just shows the public is you know, they're
bought in on that Cleveland team, right they just that
was such a huge win last week. I'm shocked to
(09:50):
see that there's so much public love for that Cleveland side.
And this is going to be, like we said, there's
gonna be his exact teams. This is a prime example
of his exac team. This Browns team at home on
grass is going to be a totally different team than
especially in this spot indoors on this turf where we've
seen this Lions team. They're humming right now, So I'm
glad we're in sink here.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Brother.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Also, the one thing I've been thinking a lot about
this game, obviously, it's my biggest bet of the week too,
probably at a bigger scale than you, Simon, because that's
the kind of numbers I play. But the one thing
that people are forgetting we loved the Browns last week.
We love the spot last week. The Packers had crazy
injuries on the offensive line throughout that game that made
(10:32):
them completely ineffective. So I don't want that to be
forgotten as a reason why I'm liking the Lions so
much as I think they're healthy. They're playing at home,
they're on turf. It's just a better spot to me
for the Lions than the Browns. Last week when we
nailed it Indy at the Los Angeles Rams three and
a half across the board. It has not come down.
(10:54):
I will not lie. I have not bet the Rams yet.
I'm still hoping as we get closer to kick off.
If I got to eat it and I miss the
number and I get the four, I'll live with it
and it pushes fine, But I'm really trying to be
patient and wait for the three. We're not going to
have that option in the contest. It's three and a half,
you know. Do we believe the Rams or the team
(11:16):
that could have been beaten the Eagles and are three
and zero if they hadn't been so conservative and the
Eagles hadn't found their rhythm? Do we believe the Cults
are the team that could be two and one if
they hadn't gotten that penalty against the Broncos at the
end of the game, and being able to kick an
extra field goal attempt to win the game against the
Broncos and if otherwise beaten up on bad teams. Are
(11:38):
we going to have to completely readjust our power ratings
after this game? Simon, this is one of your biggest bets.
Are we still into the Rams?
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Yeah? Still love them, But same as you where.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
I have other games I bet a lot on as well,
and I like them just as much. And if we
do pick the Rams out, I'd be okay with it
because there's other games I do love. Like I said,
I didn't realize that I'm very heavy on these four
o'clock games and all these home teams. So yeah, this
(12:12):
is just another team. But I think they're being undervalued.
But like we talked about this cold team, they're scary
to bet against right now just because they are such
a juggernaut and we've seen a million ways that they
could keep this close. But I just have to trust
that they are a better team that I've played much
tougher teams, and we're selling a Colts team that is
at its peak level. But yeah, Chat, it's I get
(12:34):
your hesitation. Like you said, I'm shocked to threes then
pop just because there's so much love and respect right
now with this cold team in the professional community.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
I thought for sure they'd bet this down.
Speaker 3 (12:43):
I mean handful of books right now, it's all Colts money,
and this number is just held even randomly. It'd pop
three and then it'd go right back up to three
and a half. So I get your hesitation. I have
a little bit hesitation as well, like I guess this
would be our fifth one right now in my opinion
that I'm looking at our five picks. But I'm still confident,
still believing it. I just I have a hard time
(13:05):
trying to keep selling you on it where it's like
you know where I'm at. I just think the culture
overrated a little bit here, a little inflated on the line,
and that the Rams have the weapons to attack this team.
And the only hesitation is DeVonta Adams popped up on
the injury report. I still think that's just something they
have to report. I have no doubt he's gonna be
playing today, so to me, the Rams offense full go
(13:27):
bounce back spot after our brutal loss last week.
Speaker 1 (13:30):
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(15:21):
All right, So on the fence about the Rams, we
still like the Chargers, we still like the Bucks, We
still like the Lions. So these are some games we
can choose from and tell me if I'm missing anything.
Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is three and a half.
We've liked it at three. We like the brock Purty
is playing. We're less concerned about the lack of Nick Bosa,
(15:44):
even though he's been driving the pressure for this nine
Ers defense. So obviously they have a lot to prove
against the Jacksonville pass game that if they aren't dropping
the ball can potentially be effective. To me, this is
a bet on sala, a bet against Trevor Lawrence, bet
on party, a bet against the Jags, who we don't
think have played competition and aren't that good yet. But
(16:06):
do we like him better than the Rams? Do we
like him better than any other other teams? At three
and a half?
Speaker 2 (16:11):
No?
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Like again, I told you I'm heavy on the four
o'clock games. This is probably I bet it. I'm on
the four and ies. This is probably my least bet
of all these four o'clock games.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Baltimore at Kansas City. I gotta tell you I don't
want to do this one.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Now. You're scared of it.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
I'm a little bit scared. Well. I also think there's
one more game that I want to talk about that
I think might just be better value. Right, But if
you're super confident, tell.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
Me now I am, like I'm confidence sense that like
I believe in this number, believe in this team, the
matchup for the Chiefs, and that this Ravens team. I
know people think the Chiefs have more problems, right, now,
but I think the Ravens have more problems and this
number just scares me for the exact same reason as you.
It's we're betting against Lamar where we know he has
(16:59):
the better offense. It's right now, and we're kind of
betting on them that you know, they easily could be undefeated,
right a couple of fluky fumbles by Derrick Henry.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
So are we betting a bad number?
Speaker 3 (17:10):
Could me and Chad be having a three and a
half and we're taking a two and a half Where
it's not that grave number, it's just it's an interesting line,
and it's it's very divided where the public is very
very heavy on this Raven side, and once again makes
me more confident in my chief side.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
And I two did last night. I think it was one.
In the morning, the number went to two at.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Hard Rock, So some really respected money came in took
this number down to two at hard Rock, and like
I'm here in Jersey right now, it's back up to
two and a half. But that just shows that the
pros they're all aligned, they're all on this Chief side.
The public is very aligned, they're all on this Raven side.
So matchup wise, I think Worthy coming back is a
(17:49):
huge deal, and I just got to believe in Mahomes
this scenario that, yeah, that Eagles team that beat them.
You saw, there's a million other ways the Chiefs could
have covered, right, Like they kind of gave that game away.
So I don't know. I just have to believe in
this Chiefs team and believe the number. It's just I
have it at a pick. It's two and a half
(18:09):
chat So to me, I get where you're coming from too,
Like this is based on my model whereas a human
on the same point as you where it's like, I'm
sick to my stomach. Can we find other games to love?
But unfortunately for me, this is probably gonna be one
of my three biggest bets of the week. I just
I really really love this chief side and this number.
But yeah, like I said, there's other games I love too,
So if you don't love that one, we'll find we
(18:30):
can find something else to get in here.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
If you don't love.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
It, well, look, I don't mind being overruled. I just
want to make sure that we're having the full conversation.
So the other one I want to talk about, and
then I want to hear what you have to say
Chicago at the Raiders. This is a tricky one because
the line had been bouncing back and forth, back and forth.
All week. It's now Raiders minus one and a half.
As recently as yesterday it was essentially pick maybe Raiders
(18:53):
minus a half in the contest. It locked at Raiders
plus one and a half. That feels like a lot
out of value to get in the contest for a
game that we've generally liked all week.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
Yeah, and I don't. It's just like the Bears last week.
I told you the Bears line at flipped. The Bears
were still a bad line last week. I didn't really
care because I'm kind of learning here. The these contests
try to scare you off when these lines do flip
like this, and it's like, try not to overreact to it.
This Raiders line, like I said last week or on Sunday,
love them because they were a dog, like you said
our contest. Now they are still technically a dog, but
(19:29):
it's really just about the matchup. Like I just think
there's many ways for this defense on the Raiders to attack.
You know, Kille Williams AT's really good when he has
no pressure. When he does have pressure. Seams are struggling offensively,
They've had a really tough go with running the ball.
This Raiders team, this is the perfect team and the
Bears to get right with your run game. They just
(19:49):
they are bad against their runs. So I love the matchup,
love the match up for this Raiders team, and I
hate to do it till my guy chat having ruined
against his own team. But I'm rooted against my own
team this week, so I feel like it's it's fair
enough to ask them to take this number in. Yeah,
if you like this more than the Chiefs, I got
no issue with us getting in because it is a
better line value, and you know it's it's a good
(20:13):
spot for this Raiders team. It's two bad teams and
the public really believes in one bad team. And it's clear,
like I'm looking at the splits right now, it's all
Bears money, So it's not it's not the spot you
want to be with the Bears were last week. When
no one believes in the Bears, they're left for dead.
I think we're starting to learn that's when you want
to back this Bears team, not when they're coming off
(20:34):
a huge win and everyone's blowing smoke up their ass
for a week. And this Raiders team with Pete Carroll,
this is the This is that. Like I said earlier year,
there's gonnay spots. We're gonna want it back. This Raiders team.
This feels like a spot where veteran quarterback, veteran coach,
they should bounce back here. And if they lose this game,
I mean it's it's crazy sake of September, but your
(20:54):
your season is officially over Vegas if you cannot win
this game, and this because your division is brutal like
they have to. You have to beat the Bears at
home in this spot. So yeah, give me the Raiders
plus one and a half.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Chat. I'm glad you're on board with this one, all right.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
So to me, it's Chargers plus minus five and a half,
Bucks plus three and a half, Lions minus nine and
a half, Raiders plus one and a half for our fifth.
Unless there's ones I'm missing, we're debating between Rams minus
three and a half or Chiefs Chiefs plus two and
a half. Who am I missing? In a quick thirty seconds.
Speaker 3 (21:29):
No, that's literally the original five. I had in switch
the Raiders for the Chiefs. So that was I put
our five in on Thursday for our show, and that's
what I try to stay true to who we are,
and I like you. We're staying with our picks. The
only one we're really wavering on is our Chiefs or
Raiders and Rams. So now it's Chiefs or Rams, and
(21:51):
I'll leave it up to you because again, I like
both sides. You know, to me, I guess the one
I feel more confident about.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Out at the end of the day.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
It would be taking Stafford against Daniel Jones and assuming
that the Colt team could.
Speaker 1 (22:07):
Falter completely agree. Like when I thought you were going
to say, you leave it up to me, and.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
I was going to say, yeah, whatever one you want
to go.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
No, No, I want to leave it up to you.
We're taking the Rams minus three and a half. We're
in agreement, you both. We both feel more confident about
the Rams. So here are the final five in the contest.
These are the contest lines LA Chargers minus five and
a half. It is six and a half. Now, I
still like the Chargers at six and a half. If
(22:35):
you are listening or watching Chargers six and a half
in the contest at five and a half Bucks plus
three and a half contest and otherwise Detroit minus nine
and a half contest and otherwise Rams minus three and
a half across the board contest, Raiders plus one and
a half. We're taking advantage of the contest that we
play in again, this is a contest, private contest Simon
(22:57):
and I play in at the Raiders locked at one
and a half point underdogs, we're taking it. All right,
that's it, brother.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
Well and we'll just say we're nothing's changed. We're on
Houston for Survivor people. I know it's it's it's gross,
it's risky, it's by for the riskest pick you can
make this week.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
But like we said, we got to trust the situation.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
It's a desperate team, divisional game at home against the
Tennessee team that has a bunch of problems. I know
the coach said he gave up calling offensive plays. Whatever
he's doing. I don't know if that's the fix. They
just have so many issues. So I know it's it's gross,
but Houston, the zero to three Houston team is our
Survivor pick this week.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
All right.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square on YouTube tonight
live at seven point thirty or as soon as the
late afternoon games and to recap all the misery and
glory of the day, watch or listen on YouTube at
Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe also download some Spotify
Apple Pods where you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe
(24:02):
leaf leaf five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift. Until next time, Love you, m m hm
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
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