Kickoff approaches for NFL Week 8, and betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter are here to deliver their final five against the spread contest bets. After all their picks and predictions this week, they deliver their very best bets, including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys visiting Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, the Carolina Panthers hosting Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills, Drake Maye and the New England Patriots facing the Cleveland Browns, Daniel Jones and the red-hot Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans, and Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs at home vs the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football. We also hear about the New York Giants featuring Cam Skattebo and Jaxson Dart squaring off against the Philadelphia Eagles, Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay led by Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield's Tampa Bay Bucs at the New Orleans Saints. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:03:45 - CHICAGO BEARS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS
0:07:33 - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS HOUSTON TEXANS
0:09:21 - DALLAS COWBOYS VS DENVER BRONCOS
0:11:44 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
0:14:15 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
0:17:31 - NEW YORK GIANTS VS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
0:25:20 - NEW YORK JETS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
0:27:11 - GREEN BAY PACKERS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS
0:31:33 - COMMANDERS VS CHIEFS MNF
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bethardrock.bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am
joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike
Campadre Professional Better, Simon Hunter et O Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good morning, Chad brother.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
We got a lot of work to do today. This
is the Sunday episode Stripped down in the room eavesdropping
version of Sharper Square, which you and I will try
to nail down the final five picks. Now that injuries
have been reported, lines have been moving. Are you ready?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Let's do it all right?
Speaker 1 (00:44):
These are the games we heard in on the other day,
Big big news here obviously addressing it off the top.
Chicago A. Baltimore. This was our big balls bet of
the week Baltimore minus six and a half. At the time,
we had an expectation Lamar Jackson was playing. This line
is now two and a half. How stupid can the
(01:05):
Ravens and John Harbaugh be because they happened to list
Lamar Jackson as a full participant in practice on Friday.
The lines immediately moved from six and a half to seven.
It's the news everybody who was paying attention to this
game had been waiting for. I know this.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
He practiced today, full practice today, so that was good.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
And then the news came out that Lamar Jackson practiced
with the third stringers, and then his status was changed
to out. And now the NFL is investigating how the
Ravens managed their injury report injury report news and sharing
of all the weeks to not tow the line with
(01:50):
injury reports and act like an arrogant idiot, this was
not the week to do it. Simon what a tone deaf,
stupid air again thing to do by John Harbott, and
I feel like this is the week of stupid, arrogant
things from NFL coaches. We'll get to that in a second,
but look, we're sticking with the Ravens at minus six
(02:11):
and a half. The line is now down. It went
to two, it's actually moved up to two and a half,
and there's actually some threes out there. We're not gonna
play this game. I just wanted to raise it so
people are aware of it since we had discussed it
a lot during the week. Thoughts from your point of view.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yeah, it stinks, but I think God not that they
listened to us, but they listen to general public. They're
not playing Cooper Rush. Who I know, it's a big deal.
They gave the guy seven million, but Chad, Chad thought
I was crazy. I'm telling you, like that was my
view on him. I'd much rather have Snoopuntley in there,
even how bad he could be. Snoop, It's like, anything's
(02:49):
better than Cooper Rush.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Like the fact that I don't think this is dead
for us, I honestly don't know.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
So like on the mindset of I, we could mean
Chad could take Bear six and a half in their contest.
I have no interest of it. Bears have a really
banged up secondary, they have run injuries. It's still a
bad spot for the Bears. But yeah, as a Bears fan,
I'd be really happy right this is you're playing the
ravens el Lamar. You could just steal one, of course,
But to Chad's point, probably wouldn't be that big of
(03:18):
a deal if they had just been honest on Friday
saying he was limited in practice and the rather than
what Chad said, like them saying that he was full
go Lamar. It's a big no go. Like we talked about,
these these organizations, these teams, they need to realize this
isn't twenty twenty, this isn't twenty fifteen. Right, hardball in
twenty fifteen, if this would have happened, not a big deal,
(03:39):
maybe a very small fine. Your league, yourself, your owner,
your franchise, everyone is in bed with these gambly companies.
You cannot be doing this anymore. It's it's a new age.
So I'm with you, Chad. It's we could spend twenty
minutes about how stupid it is and all that is
wrong with it and manipulating lines. But like I always say,
(03:59):
the pros, who's got good sources and they took a
risk and they made a bet. They somehow were on
this with this Barrassne They were been at all week.
They just did not trust the news coming out about Lamar.
So youah, bad bad miss by me. But like I
just said, I'm still on this Ravens team. Still think
what that defense guys are getting back healthy Derrick Henry
(04:20):
with Snoopuntley and that run scheme they should be to
run the ball. So it's it's an interesting spot for
this Ravens team, then I must win. But yeah, sorry, guys,
we definitely messed up on that one.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
We're going to get to our rock in a hard place,
San Francisco at Houston. We've been on this all week. Yeah,
line moved up to two and a half. It's two
at hard Rock bet right now. Huge move on the game.
It was Texans minus one when you called it. As
Simon says on Tuesday, I think we're getting even better
number in the contest that we play with the Texans
(04:53):
as a dog either way, we've been on this game
forgetting about the contest. We're still on this game as
Texans are short favorites. The Niners are missing some key
players on a defense that cannot get pass rush. Bryce
Huff who had a great game last week sack for
his fumbles several tackles, will not be playing today. We're
(05:15):
going to be on the Texans no matter what the
number here.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Yeah, still playing the Texans, and we've talked about it.
It's a bet on their defense at home in this matchup,
and it's a bet on CJ without his number one,
number two receiver. He has a big deal. But like
Chad just mentioned, he's not going to have pressure in
his face. And we've seen with CJ has time, you
could give him no names. He made Nico Collins into
a name. So that's the thing with CJ. He can
(05:40):
take guys you haven't heard of, make it work as
long as he has time and he's comfortable. And yeah,
it's a great matchup. Like Chad said, we're also getting
an amazing number on this Texans team. So yeah, played
it all week. What is still taking in our contest?
Honestly for those minus two and a half, Like I
have no issue with betting this as long as under three,
we talk, this is going to be the pros rust shows.
(06:02):
The pros are all over it, the public is over
the forty nine ers, and yeah, we can't avoid this one,
especially the factor gets such a good line. So Houston's defense,
we need them to show up, give them major problems
once again. It's a banged up mac Jones. Come on,
take away mccaffor Houston defense. That's all you gotta do, That's.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Right, Dallas at Denver, Denver is minus three. At hard
Rock Bet it's three and a half most places. This
was Chad's choice when it was Denver minus three. Look,
the biggest fear here is Bonix against a zone defense.
(06:42):
And I have never in the years we've done this
show that Matt Iberflus has been someone that anyone ever
talked about as a Bears head coach and now is
the Cowboys defensive coordinator. I have never said this is
a problem for a quarterback against the Matt Eberflus defense,
because the guy is terrible at his job. But Bonix
(07:04):
is not very good against his own defense. And I
think that's what you're going to get from Dallas because
that's basically all you get from Dallas. So that is
a little bit of a fear here. But we continue
to be on the Broncos. Whether it's three or three
and a half, whatever you're getting, we are still going
to play the Broncos here. I just like the pressure
the Broncos can get against Dak and I think that
(07:26):
can be the game changer in this game.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah, love Denver, and part of me is just I
was excited to see if all the stuff, all the
numbers are true that Dallas is a worst team on
the road, and you know, so far, we're here, we
are in Week eight, and it's proven out a little
bit right, They're lost Week one to the Eagles on
the road. Week three against Chicago. People probably remember they
lost thirty one to fourteen. Okay, can say I was
(07:51):
a fluky game. They had a bunch of injuries. Then
they beat the Jets on the road, and then they
lost the Panthers on the road. So they're one win
on the season on the road is against arguably the
worst team in football in the New York Jets. Chad
and I are both in the same belt. We have
high expectations for this Denver team. This should be the
best defense they've faced this season. It's not indoors, it's
not that controlled environment. Is going to be outdoors in
(08:13):
tough playing conditions. So yeah, I get what the general
public is coming on DAK. Right at the base, it's
pretty simple. You're getting plus three and a half with
DAK against bow Knicks. Me and Chad we love those
type of moments, those type of spots where it's people
think this number is too good to be true. I
still don't think this number is off by one or
two points. So I love that you're still get under four. Yeah,
(08:33):
obviously we were hoping for a minus three. It's it's
my star and a half. I have no problem betting
the hook with this Denver team. I love this matchup.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Let's talk about one that we've been debating all week.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans. New Orleans is plus three
and a half. You've loved it all week. The Wise
guys have loved it all week. Huge pros Joe's game,
majority of the money on the Saints, majority of the
bets on the Buccaneers. I have been trying to avoid
(09:02):
this game all week. I think the injury bug is
really starting to get in my head about the Buccaneers
and the fact we're still getting the hook at three
and a half on the Saints. Hassan Riddick is out
for the Bucks on the defensive side of the ball
at defensive end, Vida Vea is questionable. Luke Haggard on
(09:25):
the offensive line is out obviously, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin,
Bucky Irving out. This will this caught up with them
last week. Again, the Lions can to catch up with
them in a divisional game against a team that is
scrappy and competitive that the Wise guys love. I feel
like we're walking into it, but I also feel like
it's hard to avoid it right now.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Yeah, the question is one of our five favorite bets.
That's gonna be the toughest one here. I've bet into it,
but like you said, I'm not betting it so much
with a ton of confidence on Spencer Ratler, Like this
does feel like the a game where Baker should bounce
back after such a poor performance, and we're asking a
lot Spencer rather needs to keep up with a Baker
run offense. So to me, you talked about the injuries.
(10:11):
That's that's why I'm so into backing this Saints team
where fully healthy bucks, you know, got all their weapons,
all their pieces on defense. They're not you know, hanging
on by rags here. Sure I could have got up
to four and a half five this team is. They're
currently constructed. They're not blowing teams out this year, like
we've already talked about that. They play close Games's just
(10:31):
who they are. Sometimes it takes Baker a little bit
to get going. So it's about the number, Like we're
getting a good number, like our contest, Chad knows it's
five and a half. That's a conversation, right, The best
number you can get right out any book is four
and a half. People want to shop around on the
Saints team. That's a huge key number, Like you're crossing
(10:51):
four there, that's a big deal. So I'm knowing people
know I'm on the Saints. Is gonna be one of
our five. We have a real conversation here because it's
a tough week with a lot of a lot of
games we don't love, and this is one of the
games I am bet into. I do like, so we
can talk about it, but I'm I'm not going to
force us to bet Baker against Baker twoeks in a row.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Uh Are you ready for our Rock in a Hard Place?
Cleveland at New England? New England is minus seven right
now at hard Rock Bet, and it is trending to
six and a half. So I want people to be
patient on this. You look at any book, it has
come down from seven and a half. It's come down
(11:34):
from seven. The juice looks like it's trending towards six
and a half. But this week, Our Rock and a
Hard Place better, the week presented by hard Rock Bed
is going to be Cleveland at New England. A lot
(11:57):
simon whether the number seven or six and a half,
We're going to be on New England here. I think
that's I've been thinking about this game all week. I
have not pulled the trigger on it. And this morning
I woke up and I'm like, what am I doing?
How am I not pulling the trigger against the Browns
defense that we know we like to bet when they're
(12:21):
a bet against, when they're on the road off of
a big win with a quarterback we don't believe in,
against a team whose strength is throwing the ball down field,
and that happens to be maybe the one if you
could call it weakness for this Cleveland Browns defense.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Yeah, and we already talked about it all week that
you know we could get usually get burned by this one.
We have been on the other side of this bet
for a long time. But it's like we always said,
it's a new dawn, a new age, trying to lean
into it and take these really really public sides and
spots that feel icky for the little growth. But I
(13:01):
can't get I can't get by what Chad just talked about,
Like this just feels like a horrible, horrible situation for
this Cleveland team with their quarterback. They currently have just
a bad matchup, Like this is the exact type of
match of Rabel should have actually dominate a team. Right,
there's rookies on the road after what they went by
twenty points last week. I mean, I can't even imagine
what their practices were like this week and their reps
(13:24):
about how just a team like Cleveland, I don't think
they know how to handle success. This is a team
that you know, we heard that stat multiple times last week.
They didn't scored more than eighteen points in like two years,
Like they're just it's just a bad franchise. So that
could have been a jumping off point, right, we could
be ste walking into We're back in a team here
that Patriots have covered in won four straight games after
(13:45):
a long road trip, now coming back home, how does
a young team handle that? Like me and Chack keep saying,
And luckily we've been avoiding betting against him and for
the most part in our contest because it's verybel and
at the end of the day is great as may
has been. This just feels like a vrable bet Arabel
spot once again. So yeah, in our contest, we can
(14:05):
get minus six and a half. They know what they're doing,
they knew they ascuse they gave us that line, we're
gonna get me on it. So, like Chad said, be patient,
I'm already seeing two books pop six and a half
right now. So professionals, they're gonna be on the Browns.
Hopefully they bet this down and they give us a
better line. But yeah, love the Patriots here all right.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
So we know we're going to be on Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh,
New England. We're looking for our fifth right now. New Orleans,
Tampa Bay is on the outside looking in. Let's talk
about the New York Giants seven point dogs at Philadelphia
right now the numbers come down, there's still seven and
(14:43):
a half's out there. Yeah, people should be looking for
the seven and a half. The Eagles without AJ Brown,
hard Roud.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
It is the only book here in Jersey at seven right.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Now, right without Dory Jackson, card Rock, Yeah, very sharp.
AJ Brown is out a Dory Jackson cornerback out, Cam
Jurgen center out, Azizo Jilari defensive end out all for
the Eagles. Like I mentioned this on Thursday, the Giants
relatively healthy. Brian Burns was questionable, But this feels like
(15:18):
the kind of game where we probably need to be
on the Giants. If we're getting that hook.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Yeah, it feels a type of gross game that would
just be sloppy and close, and it's a huge, huge number.
Like we said this, the books are in a tough
spot because two weeks ago on the road, they had
the Eagles as what was this seven and a half
point favorite, So in their mind they've already moved in
the line a lot, including those injuries and the perception
(15:48):
of this Giants team. But we've talked about, like since
starts taking over, it just feels like the books haven't
priced are right. And I admitted I definitely got away
with one with that Giants because my whole view was, well,
let's see how this Shiints team handles a big win
now going on the road with a rookie quarterback and
what happened? They had five turnovers? So yep, you know
(16:10):
it's not the most ideal conditions, right, This isn't the
best spot ever with this Giants team. But I still
think this is an insane number. And the Eagles are
being priced as a five and two Super Bowl defending
champ that has been rolling along dominating teams this season.
Where we talked to one tonight, they have like I
think a plus five point differential. This is not a
juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that
(16:31):
can't close teams out. A team that last week. I mean,
how lucky do you have to be to cover that
number if you had the Eagles ticket last week? I
mean the Vikings who are not good like we saw
on Thursday, wentz win one to five in the red zone.
If he had just scored one of those, yeah, Pakasin
didn't drop the one, they get to cover maybe the win.
So just feels like an Eagles team that's overpriced. Yeah,
(16:53):
can Saquon get right here with the run game? Which
is there dying to do? Possibly? But like Chad just said,
the interior line's those team has just banged up, tons
of injuries, guys not missing, including their center. Just too
much to ask go yeah plus seven plus seven and
a half. I've come a long way on this giant
sid I start to really like this number.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
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(18:40):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Last one. I just want
(19:03):
to raise it quickly. Jets at Cincinnati, it's six at
hard Rock, six and a half. Basically everywhere else we're
going to book in with arrogant, defensive, insecure coaches right
now because Aaron Glenn reached peak I know better, frustrated
coach and oppressor the other day when he would not
answer questions about the quarterback. And now we know Tyrad
(19:27):
Taylor is out with a brus knee and it's going
to be up to justin fields. The Jets are the
right side here. Everybody knows it. I have no compunction
to put into the contest, but we need a fifth
and it's the sharpest number that's out there. I mean, honestly,
it is like there's no rating that has the Bengals
(19:48):
a six and a half point better than the Jets.
This is a public perception pros Joe's game, and we
see that because the number is inching towards six. Do
we want to risk it?
Speaker 2 (20:02):
I can't tell if you're trying to do us a favor.
You just forgot that Pittsburgh has a game on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
But I do love your your belief in this Jets team.
I think at the end of the show you use
them as your Sharper square bet, which was very funny. Yeah,
I don't know. Like Jed said, it's probably right, We're
probably supposed to do it, but I'm not going to
make our listeners bet this side. Like we gave up
their money line, which was great value. We got a
(20:30):
really good number on that, and yeah, like if it
was seven and a half, I could probably be talked
into it. But it's six and a half. I know
it's a sharp number. I just between the Sauce Cordner,
all the injuries they had, and now that assumption should go,
I gotta avoid this one for the show, Chef.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
I don't want to do it. You don't want to
do it, but I had to raise it. I'm glad
you reminded me about Pittsburgh. I skipped right over it.
We look, we've liked it all week, getting the hook.
This numbers coming down. It's at three at a lot
of places, two and a half at hard rock.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Okay, yeah, so big movement.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
It's pretty big. We're going to be on the Steelers
here in the contest. That's that's a no brainer. It's
it's you know, I've I think I skipped over it
because I already listed it as one of our as
one of our five.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Yeah, that's crazy. Is a hard rock and another book
are They are at minus two and a half, So
that's that's a pretty big deal. I didn't think they'd
come off the three, just because for me, if it
feels like green Bay to the Masses is a much
better team, right, they have much more talent. It's it's
easy to believe in this team. Right. They're four to
(21:39):
one on one number one team right now in the NFC,
which is bizarre, but it's true. And Pittsburgh coming off
that embarrassing loss last week. I am shocked that this
number has moved as it has. I thought it would
get back to three and a half, which is what
we do have in our contest. But people know I
plus three Pittsburgh. If you're forced to take the plus
two and a half, that's the only you have. I
(22:01):
don't hate it, but Chad knows. We always feel better
on the three. Even though Lands on two. It feels
like when Land's on the three, we want we want
that three. So especially in this type of matchup that
could easily come down to Green Bay last second field
goal to win it, it just feels like gonna be
a really close game, possibly the ugliest uniform matchups of
(22:22):
the season. Wait until you see these tonight. People just
gonna be brutal. That's the only other team I could
think of, even though I only bet them at minus
thirteen and a half. The Colts are an interesting play
at minus fourteen and a half. No Simmons now for Tennessee,
but taking them over the Steelers, I can't get there.
(22:42):
So I just wanted to mention I am on the Colts.
Do like the Colts, even if they're you know, minus
fourteen and a half at your book, I still like
the Colts, but yeah, for our contest is such a
huge number, I feel way better at taking Pittsburgh the Giants.
Those two last teams again are even the Patriots much
more than the Colts of minus fourteen and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Oh, to me, the Patriots are in. It's really coming down.
And if you're saying, if you're throwing Colts in all
of a sudden, I'd go with Giants. Like to me,
it's Houston plus one Denver minus three and a half.
And by the way, Houston, we still like it at
the current numbers two two and a half not an
issue for us. No, Houston plus one Denver minus three
(23:30):
and a half, which is what is available right now.
Pittsburgh we're getting it at three and a half. We
like it at three. Try to find the three wherever
you are, even if it's to pay a little bit
of the juice. New York Giants plus seven and a half,
you definitely want to get that, and then New England
minus six and a half. Be patient, there are I
(23:51):
have seen a six and a half at a book,
so it is good, and the juice is saying it's
going that way, so just give it a it. It's
gonna get to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
That's five super quick. I mean last week we went
won to one. The totals. Hit the under in that
Bucks Lions game, obviously did not hit the under in
that Dallas Washington game. People are looking for just gross
unders again this week. The total in that Dallas game,
I'm gona keep going back though it's fifty one and
a half Dallas Denver. That feels like a fun under.
(24:24):
I'm gonna hate myself two minutes into that game, Houston
Texans forty nine ers totals forty one and a half,
even when they're missing a piece of forty niners. I
think both defenses are gonna be on the forefront here
like this feels like a seventeen to ten, seventeen to
thirteen type of game, just two defenses going at it
(24:45):
this entire game. I really like that low total, and
let's give the people one more under. That's just I
don't know. We've already talked about Patriots, but I just
don't see how the Browns score. Give me that under
forty point five. It's I could just see the Patriots
winning twenty to nothing or twenty to three like it
just feels like a gross, booring game. Like Chad said,
(25:07):
Cleveland can't running against them, but you can pass the ball.
So I could see him getting out the early lead
and just being a boring, sloppy game the rest of
the way. So like a bunch of unders this week
real quickly.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Monday Night football Washington and Kansas City. Kansas City is
an eleven and a half point favorite. It's ticked up
a little bit. I know people get excited about betting
these games. I'll tell you the one thing I've done
with this game. I did a three team money line
parlay of Kansas City, Atlanta and the Patriots just before
(25:46):
you knew Kirk Cousins was coming in. Is Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Kirk Cousins is the starter brother wow or. I don't
know if it's been officially cleared, but it was like
a chance. What was worded to me that Kirk is
starting this week for Pennix and that number reflections it.
It's down to minus six and a half at a couple
of books. That Atlanta game.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Either way, that's what I've played is the City is
part of the money line parlay.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
I don't hate it. I talked to you a little
bit about it. My favorite money line of any team
is the Bills this week. So to me, Bills, Chiefs, Colts,
whatever you want to do, get the number down. But yeah,
like I I do like the do you like the
big chalk this week? But yeah, it's uh, we know
some upsets are gonna happen. We just me and chatter
on the same boat. It's like, is Tua gonna beat Kirk? Is?
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Is?
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Uh? Is the Browns? Are they gonna upset the Patriots?
Jackson Dark and win two in a row against the Eagles.
It's like, I can't see it happening, but something's gonna happen, right,
one of these teams have to do and I have
to pull an upset off. So just be careful out
there people, these type of bets.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Be careful out there. Uh. I would say it's a
great Hill Story Blues reference, but you don't know what
that is. And Eve one hunder fifty doesn't know what
that is.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Hey, let's speak careful out.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All right, one more time. Houston plus one, Patriots minus
six and a half, Denver minus three and a half,
Steelers plus three and a half. New York Football Giants
last ones in plus seven and a half. This has
(27:27):
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We
will be back on Sharper Square seven thirty ish live
tonight Sharper Square YouTube to recap all the misery and glory.
Watcher listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download us with Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your posit rate review, subscribe, leave us
(27:47):
five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Until next time, Love you
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am
joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, Mike
Campadre Professional Better, Simon Hunter et O Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good morning, Chad brother.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
We got a lot of work to do today. This
is the Sunday episode Stripped down in the room eavesdropping
version of Sharper Square, which you and I will try
to nail down the final five picks. Now that injuries
have been reported, lines have been moving. Are you ready?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Let's do it all right?
Speaker 1 (00:44):
These are the games we heard in on the other day,
Big big news here obviously addressing it off the top.
Chicago A. Baltimore. This was our big balls bet of
the week Baltimore minus six and a half. At the time,
we had an expectation Lamar Jackson was playing. This line
is now two and a half. How stupid can the
(01:05):
Ravens and John Harbaugh be because they happened to list
Lamar Jackson as a full participant in practice on Friday.
The lines immediately moved from six and a half to seven.
It's the news everybody who was paying attention to this
game had been waiting for. I know this.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
He practiced today, full practice today, so that was good.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
And then the news came out that Lamar Jackson practiced
with the third stringers, and then his status was changed
to out. And now the NFL is investigating how the
Ravens managed their injury report injury report news and sharing
of all the weeks to not tow the line with
(01:50):
injury reports and act like an arrogant idiot, this was
not the week to do it. Simon what a tone deaf,
stupid air again thing to do by John Harbott, and
I feel like this is the week of stupid, arrogant
things from NFL coaches. We'll get to that in a second,
but look, we're sticking with the Ravens at minus six
(02:11):
and a half. The line is now down. It went
to two, it's actually moved up to two and a half,
and there's actually some threes out there. We're not gonna
play this game. I just wanted to raise it so
people are aware of it since we had discussed it
a lot during the week. Thoughts from your point of view.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Yeah, it stinks, but I think God not that they
listened to us, but they listen to general public. They're
not playing Cooper Rush. Who I know, it's a big deal.
They gave the guy seven million, but Chad, Chad thought
I was crazy. I'm telling you, like that was my
view on him. I'd much rather have Snoopuntley in there,
even how bad he could be. Snoop, It's like, anything's
(02:49):
better than Cooper Rush.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Like the fact that I don't think this is dead
for us, I honestly don't know.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
So like on the mindset of I, we could mean
Chad could take Bear six and a half in their contest.
I have no interest of it. Bears have a really
banged up secondary, they have run injuries. It's still a
bad spot for the Bears. But yeah, as a Bears fan,
I'd be really happy right this is you're playing the
ravens el Lamar. You could just steal one, of course,
But to Chad's point, probably wouldn't be that big of
(03:18):
a deal if they had just been honest on Friday
saying he was limited in practice and the rather than
what Chad said, like them saying that he was full
go Lamar. It's a big no go. Like we talked about,
these these organizations, these teams, they need to realize this
isn't twenty twenty, this isn't twenty fifteen. Right, hardball in
twenty fifteen, if this would have happened, not a big deal,
(03:39):
maybe a very small fine. Your league, yourself, your owner,
your franchise, everyone is in bed with these gambly companies.
You cannot be doing this anymore. It's it's a new age.
So I'm with you, Chad. It's we could spend twenty
minutes about how stupid it is and all that is
wrong with it and manipulating lines. But like I always say,
(03:59):
the pros, who's got good sources and they took a
risk and they made a bet. They somehow were on
this with this Barrassne They were been at all week.
They just did not trust the news coming out about Lamar.
So youah, bad bad miss by me. But like I
just said, I'm still on this Ravens team. Still think
what that defense guys are getting back healthy Derrick Henry
(04:20):
with Snoopuntley and that run scheme they should be to
run the ball. So it's it's an interesting spot for
this Ravens team, then I must win. But yeah, sorry, guys,
we definitely messed up on that one.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
We're going to get to our rock in a hard place,
San Francisco at Houston. We've been on this all week. Yeah,
line moved up to two and a half. It's two
at hard Rock bet right now. Huge move on the game.
It was Texans minus one when you called it. As
Simon says on Tuesday, I think we're getting even better
number in the contest that we play with the Texans
(04:53):
as a dog either way, we've been on this game
forgetting about the contest. We're still on this game as
Texans are short favorites. The Niners are missing some key
players on a defense that cannot get pass rush. Bryce
Huff who had a great game last week sack for
his fumbles several tackles, will not be playing today. We're
(05:15):
going to be on the Texans no matter what the
number here.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Yeah, still playing the Texans, and we've talked about it.
It's a bet on their defense at home in this matchup,
and it's a bet on CJ without his number one,
number two receiver. He has a big deal. But like
Chad just mentioned, he's not going to have pressure in
his face. And we've seen with CJ has time, you
could give him no names. He made Nico Collins into
a name. So that's the thing with CJ. He can
(05:40):
take guys you haven't heard of, make it work as
long as he has time and he's comfortable. And yeah,
it's a great matchup. Like Chad said, we're also getting
an amazing number on this Texans team. So yeah, played
it all week. What is still taking in our contest?
Honestly for those minus two and a half, Like I
have no issue with betting this as long as under three,
we talk, this is going to be the pros rust shows.
(06:02):
The pros are all over it, the public is over
the forty nine ers, and yeah, we can't avoid this one,
especially the factor gets such a good line. So Houston's defense,
we need them to show up, give them major problems
once again. It's a banged up mac Jones. Come on,
take away mccaffor Houston defense. That's all you gotta do, That's.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Right, Dallas at Denver, Denver is minus three. At hard
Rock Bet it's three and a half most places. This
was Chad's choice when it was Denver minus three. Look,
the biggest fear here is Bonix against a zone defense.
(06:42):
And I have never in the years we've done this
show that Matt Iberflus has been someone that anyone ever
talked about as a Bears head coach and now is
the Cowboys defensive coordinator. I have never said this is
a problem for a quarterback against the Matt Eberflus defense,
because the guy is terrible at his job. But Bonix
(07:04):
is not very good against his own defense. And I
think that's what you're going to get from Dallas because
that's basically all you get from Dallas. So that is
a little bit of a fear here. But we continue
to be on the Broncos. Whether it's three or three
and a half, whatever you're getting, we are still going
to play the Broncos here. I just like the pressure
the Broncos can get against Dak and I think that
(07:26):
can be the game changer in this game.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah, love Denver, and part of me is just I
was excited to see if all the stuff, all the
numbers are true that Dallas is a worst team on
the road, and you know, so far, we're here, we
are in Week eight, and it's proven out a little
bit right, They're lost Week one to the Eagles on
the road. Week three against Chicago. People probably remember they
lost thirty one to fourteen. Okay, can say I was
(07:51):
a fluky game. They had a bunch of injuries. Then
they beat the Jets on the road, and then they
lost the Panthers on the road. So they're one win
on the season on the road is against arguably the
worst team in football in the New York Jets. Chad
and I are both in the same belt. We have
high expectations for this Denver team. This should be the
best defense they've faced this season. It's not indoors, it's
not that controlled environment. Is going to be outdoors in
(08:13):
tough playing conditions. So yeah, I get what the general
public is coming on DAK. Right at the base, it's
pretty simple. You're getting plus three and a half with
DAK against bow Knicks. Me and Chad we love those
type of moments, those type of spots where it's people
think this number is too good to be true. I
still don't think this number is off by one or
two points. So I love that you're still get under four. Yeah,
(08:33):
obviously we were hoping for a minus three. It's it's
my star and a half. I have no problem betting
the hook with this Denver team. I love this matchup.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Let's talk about one that we've been debating all week.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans. New Orleans is plus three
and a half. You've loved it all week. The Wise
guys have loved it all week. Huge pros Joe's game,
majority of the money on the Saints, majority of the
bets on the Buccaneers. I have been trying to avoid
(09:02):
this game all week. I think the injury bug is
really starting to get in my head about the Buccaneers
and the fact we're still getting the hook at three
and a half on the Saints. Hassan Riddick is out
for the Bucks on the defensive side of the ball
at defensive end, Vida Vea is questionable. Luke Haggard on
(09:25):
the offensive line is out obviously, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin,
Bucky Irving out. This will this caught up with them
last week. Again, the Lions can to catch up with
them in a divisional game against a team that is
scrappy and competitive that the Wise guys love. I feel
like we're walking into it, but I also feel like
it's hard to avoid it right now.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
Yeah, the question is one of our five favorite bets.
That's gonna be the toughest one here. I've bet into it,
but like you said, I'm not betting it so much
with a ton of confidence on Spencer Ratler, Like this
does feel like the a game where Baker should bounce
back after such a poor performance, and we're asking a
lot Spencer rather needs to keep up with a Baker
run offense. So to me, you talked about the injuries.
(10:11):
That's that's why I'm so into backing this Saints team
where fully healthy bucks, you know, got all their weapons,
all their pieces on defense. They're not you know, hanging
on by rags here. Sure I could have got up
to four and a half five this team is. They're
currently constructed. They're not blowing teams out this year, like
we've already talked about that. They play close Games's just
(10:31):
who they are. Sometimes it takes Baker a little bit
to get going. So it's about the number, Like we're
getting a good number, like our contest, Chad knows it's
five and a half. That's a conversation, right, The best
number you can get right out any book is four
and a half. People want to shop around on the
Saints team. That's a huge key number, Like you're crossing
(10:51):
four there, that's a big deal. So I'm knowing people
know I'm on the Saints. Is gonna be one of
our five. We have a real conversation here because it's
a tough week with a lot of a lot of
games we don't love, and this is one of the
games I am bet into. I do like, so we
can talk about it, but I'm I'm not going to
force us to bet Baker against Baker twoeks in a row.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
Uh Are you ready for our Rock in a Hard Place?
Cleveland at New England? New England is minus seven right
now at hard Rock Bet, and it is trending to
six and a half. So I want people to be
patient on this. You look at any book, it has
come down from seven and a half. It's come down
(11:34):
from seven. The juice looks like it's trending towards six
and a half. But this week, Our Rock and a
Hard Place better, the week presented by hard Rock Bed
is going to be Cleveland at New England. A lot
(11:57):
simon whether the number seven or six and a half,
We're going to be on New England here. I think
that's I've been thinking about this game all week. I
have not pulled the trigger on it. And this morning
I woke up and I'm like, what am I doing?
How am I not pulling the trigger against the Browns
defense that we know we like to bet when they're
(12:21):
a bet against, when they're on the road off of
a big win with a quarterback we don't believe in,
against a team whose strength is throwing the ball down field,
and that happens to be maybe the one if you
could call it weakness for this Cleveland Browns defense.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Yeah, and we already talked about it all week that
you know we could get usually get burned by this one.
We have been on the other side of this bet
for a long time. But it's like we always said,
it's a new dawn, a new age, trying to lean
into it and take these really really public sides and
spots that feel icky for the little growth. But I
(13:01):
can't get I can't get by what Chad just talked about,
Like this just feels like a horrible, horrible situation for
this Cleveland team with their quarterback. They currently have just
a bad matchup, Like this is the exact type of
match of Rabel should have actually dominate a team. Right,
there's rookies on the road after what they went by
twenty points last week. I mean, I can't even imagine
what their practices were like this week and their reps
(13:24):
about how just a team like Cleveland, I don't think
they know how to handle success. This is a team
that you know, we heard that stat multiple times last week.
They didn't scored more than eighteen points in like two years,
Like they're just it's just a bad franchise. So that
could have been a jumping off point, right, we could
be ste walking into We're back in a team here
that Patriots have covered in won four straight games after
(13:45):
a long road trip, now coming back home, how does
a young team handle that? Like me and Chack keep saying,
And luckily we've been avoiding betting against him and for
the most part in our contest because it's verybel and
at the end of the day is great as may
has been. This just feels like a vrable bet Arabel
spot once again. So yeah, in our contest, we can
(14:05):
get minus six and a half. They know what they're doing,
they knew they ascuse they gave us that line, we're
gonna get me on it. So, like Chad said, be patient,
I'm already seeing two books pop six and a half
right now. So professionals, they're gonna be on the Browns.
Hopefully they bet this down and they give us a
better line. But yeah, love the Patriots here all right.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
So we know we're going to be on Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh,
New England. We're looking for our fifth right now. New Orleans,
Tampa Bay is on the outside looking in. Let's talk
about the New York Giants seven point dogs at Philadelphia
right now the numbers come down, there's still seven and
(14:43):
a half's out there. Yeah, people should be looking for
the seven and a half. The Eagles without AJ Brown,
hard Roud.
Speaker 2 (14:50):
It is the only book here in Jersey at seven right.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Now, right without Dory Jackson, card Rock, Yeah, very sharp.
AJ Brown is out a Dory Jackson cornerback out, Cam
Jurgen center out, Azizo Jilari defensive end out all for
the Eagles. Like I mentioned this on Thursday, the Giants
relatively healthy. Brian Burns was questionable, But this feels like
(15:18):
the kind of game where we probably need to be
on the Giants. If we're getting that hook.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Yeah, it feels a type of gross game that would
just be sloppy and close, and it's a huge, huge number.
Like we said this, the books are in a tough
spot because two weeks ago on the road, they had
the Eagles as what was this seven and a half
point favorite, So in their mind they've already moved in
the line a lot, including those injuries and the perception
(15:48):
of this Giants team. But we've talked about, like since
starts taking over, it just feels like the books haven't
priced are right. And I admitted I definitely got away
with one with that Giants because my whole view was, well,
let's see how this Shiints team handles a big win
now going on the road with a rookie quarterback and
what happened? They had five turnovers? So yep, you know
(16:10):
it's not the most ideal conditions, right, This isn't the
best spot ever with this Giants team. But I still
think this is an insane number. And the Eagles are
being priced as a five and two Super Bowl defending
champ that has been rolling along dominating teams this season.
Where we talked to one tonight, they have like I
think a plus five point differential. This is not a
juggernaut of an Eagles team. This is a team that
(16:31):
can't close teams out. A team that last week. I mean,
how lucky do you have to be to cover that
number if you had the Eagles ticket last week? I
mean the Vikings who are not good like we saw
on Thursday, wentz win one to five in the red zone.
If he had just scored one of those, yeah, Pakasin
didn't drop the one, they get to cover maybe the win.
So just feels like an Eagles team that's overpriced. Yeah,
(16:53):
can Saquon get right here with the run game? Which
is there dying to do? Possibly? But like Chad just said,
the interior line's those team has just banged up, tons
of injuries, guys not missing, including their center. Just too
much to ask go yeah plus seven plus seven and
a half. I've come a long way on this giant
sid I start to really like this number.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Last one. I just want
(19:03):
to raise it quickly. Jets at Cincinnati, it's six at
hard Rock, six and a half. Basically everywhere else we're
going to book in with arrogant, defensive, insecure coaches right
now because Aaron Glenn reached peak I know better, frustrated
coach and oppressor the other day when he would not
answer questions about the quarterback. And now we know Tyrad
(19:27):
Taylor is out with a brus knee and it's going
to be up to justin fields. The Jets are the
right side here. Everybody knows it. I have no compunction
to put into the contest, but we need a fifth
and it's the sharpest number that's out there. I mean, honestly,
it is like there's no rating that has the Bengals
(19:48):
a six and a half point better than the Jets.
This is a public perception pros Joe's game, and we
see that because the number is inching towards six. Do
we want to risk it?
Speaker 2 (20:02):
I can't tell if you're trying to do us a favor.
You just forgot that Pittsburgh has a game on Sunday night.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Oh my god.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
But I do love your your belief in this Jets team.
I think at the end of the show you use
them as your Sharper square bet, which was very funny. Yeah,
I don't know. Like Jed said, it's probably right, We're
probably supposed to do it, but I'm not going to
make our listeners bet this side. Like we gave up
their money line, which was great value. We got a
(20:30):
really good number on that, and yeah, like if it
was seven and a half, I could probably be talked
into it. But it's six and a half. I know
it's a sharp number. I just between the Sauce Cordner,
all the injuries they had, and now that assumption should go,
I gotta avoid this one for the show, Chef.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
I don't want to do it. You don't want to
do it, but I had to raise it. I'm glad
you reminded me about Pittsburgh. I skipped right over it.
We look, we've liked it all week, getting the hook.
This numbers coming down. It's at three at a lot
of places, two and a half at hard rock.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
Okay, yeah, so big movement.
Speaker 1 (21:05):
It's pretty big. We're going to be on the Steelers
here in the contest. That's that's a no brainer. It's
it's you know, I've I think I skipped over it
because I already listed it as one of our as
one of our five.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Yeah, that's crazy. Is a hard rock and another book
are They are at minus two and a half, So
that's that's a pretty big deal. I didn't think they'd
come off the three, just because for me, if it
feels like green Bay to the Masses is a much
better team, right, they have much more talent. It's it's
easy to believe in this team. Right. They're four to
(21:39):
one on one number one team right now in the NFC,
which is bizarre, but it's true. And Pittsburgh coming off
that embarrassing loss last week. I am shocked that this
number has moved as it has. I thought it would
get back to three and a half, which is what
we do have in our contest. But people know I
plus three Pittsburgh. If you're forced to take the plus
two and a half, that's the only you have. I
(22:01):
don't hate it, but Chad knows. We always feel better
on the three. Even though Lands on two. It feels
like when Land's on the three, we want we want
that three. So especially in this type of matchup that
could easily come down to Green Bay last second field
goal to win it, it just feels like gonna be
a really close game, possibly the ugliest uniform matchups of
(22:22):
the season. Wait until you see these tonight. People just
gonna be brutal. That's the only other team I could
think of, even though I only bet them at minus
thirteen and a half. The Colts are an interesting play
at minus fourteen and a half. No Simmons now for Tennessee,
but taking them over the Steelers, I can't get there.
(22:42):
So I just wanted to mention I am on the Colts.
Do like the Colts, even if they're you know, minus
fourteen and a half at your book, I still like
the Colts, but yeah, for our contest is such a
huge number, I feel way better at taking Pittsburgh the Giants.
Those two last teams again are even the Patriots much
more than the Colts of minus fourteen and a half.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Oh, to me, the Patriots are in. It's really coming down.
And if you're saying, if you're throwing Colts in all
of a sudden, I'd go with Giants. Like to me,
it's Houston plus one Denver minus three and a half.
And by the way, Houston, we still like it at
the current numbers two two and a half not an
issue for us. No, Houston plus one Denver minus three
(23:30):
and a half, which is what is available right now.
Pittsburgh we're getting it at three and a half. We
like it at three. Try to find the three wherever
you are, even if it's to pay a little bit
of the juice. New York Giants plus seven and a half,
you definitely want to get that, and then New England
minus six and a half. Be patient, there are I
(23:51):
have seen a six and a half at a book,
so it is good, and the juice is saying it's
going that way, so just give it a it. It's
gonna get to six and a half.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
That's five super quick. I mean last week we went
won to one. The totals. Hit the under in that
Bucks Lions game, obviously did not hit the under in
that Dallas Washington game. People are looking for just gross
unders again this week. The total in that Dallas game,
I'm gona keep going back though it's fifty one and
a half Dallas Denver. That feels like a fun under.
(24:24):
I'm gonna hate myself two minutes into that game, Houston
Texans forty nine ers totals forty one and a half,
even when they're missing a piece of forty niners. I
think both defenses are gonna be on the forefront here
like this feels like a seventeen to ten, seventeen to
thirteen type of game, just two defenses going at it
(24:45):
this entire game. I really like that low total, and
let's give the people one more under. That's just I
don't know. We've already talked about Patriots, but I just
don't see how the Browns score. Give me that under
forty point five. It's I could just see the Patriots
winning twenty to nothing or twenty to three like it
just feels like a gross, booring game. Like Chad said,
(25:07):
Cleveland can't running against them, but you can pass the ball.
So I could see him getting out the early lead
and just being a boring, sloppy game the rest of
the way. So like a bunch of unders this week
real quickly.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Monday Night football Washington and Kansas City. Kansas City is
an eleven and a half point favorite. It's ticked up
a little bit. I know people get excited about betting
these games. I'll tell you the one thing I've done
with this game. I did a three team money line
parlay of Kansas City, Atlanta and the Patriots just before
(25:46):
you knew Kirk Cousins was coming in. Is Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Kirk Cousins is the starter brother wow or. I don't
know if it's been officially cleared, but it was like
a chance. What was worded to me that Kirk is
starting this week for Pennix and that number reflections it.
It's down to minus six and a half at a couple
of books. That Atlanta game.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
Either way, that's what I've played is the City is
part of the money line parlay.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
I don't hate it. I talked to you a little
bit about it. My favorite money line of any team
is the Bills this week. So to me, Bills, Chiefs, Colts,
whatever you want to do, get the number down. But yeah,
like I I do like the do you like the
big chalk this week? But yeah, it's uh, we know
some upsets are gonna happen. We just me and chatter
on the same boat. It's like, is Tua gonna beat Kirk? Is?
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Is?
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Uh? Is the Browns? Are they gonna upset the Patriots?
Jackson Dark and win two in a row against the Eagles.
It's like, I can't see it happening, but something's gonna happen, right,
one of these teams have to do and I have
to pull an upset off. So just be careful out
there people, these type of bets.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Be careful out there. Uh. I would say it's a
great Hill Story Blues reference, but you don't know what
that is. And Eve one hunder fifty doesn't know what
that is.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Hey, let's speak careful out.
Speaker 1 (27:06):
All right, one more time. Houston plus one, Patriots minus
six and a half, Denver minus three and a half,
Steelers plus three and a half. New York Football Giants
last ones in plus seven and a half. This has
(27:27):
been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. We
will be back on Sharper Square seven thirty ish live
tonight Sharper Square YouTube to recap all the misery and glory.
Watcher listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download us with Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your posit rate review, subscribe, leave us
(27:47):
five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Until next time, Love you
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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