It's officially November! The clocks have fallen back, and kickoff approaches for NFL Week 9! Betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter are here to deliver their final five against the spread contest bets.
After all their picks and predictions this week, they deliver their very best bets, including Dak Prescott's Dallas Cowboys against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos vs. C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills squaring off against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs. We also hear about Drake Maye and the New England Patriots vs. Michael Penix and the Atlanta Falcons, Daniel Jones and the red-hot Indianapolis Colts vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus, we get a best bet on JJ McCarthy's return to the Minnesota Vikings vs. Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, and Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants vs. the San Francisco 49ers. All their final and official betting picks, all in one fast-paced episode! #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:04:02 - LA CHARGERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS
0:07:08 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS DETROIT LIONS
0:08:50 - DENVER BRONCOS VS HOUSTON TEXANS
0:10:48 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS
0:13:40 - CHICAGO BEARS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS
0:16:13 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS
0:25:25 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
0:28:50 - OFFICIAL NFL WEEK 9 CONTEST PICKS
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We
are part of the Volume pod Cast network. This is
the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chadmilman.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I am joined as always by my BFF, my companion,
my co host, MIKEL Padre, professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Ready to rock and roll? State up late to watch
some great baseball. Not impacted by moving the clocks.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Back at all. I am ready to roll.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
This is the strip down in the room eavedropping version
of Sharper Square. You and I are going to try
to nail down our five picks now that we know
all about the injuries and the latest line moves.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Are you ready, Simon Hunter?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Let's get into it.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
These are the.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Games that we had pretty much locked in on the
other day, and I think we feel good about four.
We're going to have a challenge on the fifth. Here
we go, Los Angeles Charters minus nine Tennessee. Reminder, our
history with the Chargers in this spot is not good meeting.
When we back them on the road as a favorite,
it gets a team that we think stinks, but this
(01:12):
is not just a bad team. It is a bad
team that is without Calvin Ridley at receiver. Today is
without starting safety Xavier Woods. It is without starting linebacker
Art and Key, and most importantly their best player, defensive
tackle Jeffrey Simmons. Last thing I'll say because I want
to get to your take on this. When ESPN reported
Jeffrey Simmons was not going to be playing, they listed
(01:35):
five players who are going to be trying to fill
his role in rotation.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
That's not good.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
Yeah, And it's a game that I laughed about because
I've been getting a lot of shit the books this week,
like last night World Series. Everyone's there, even guys I
haven't seen in a while, came to the book last
night because it's like it's just a night you got
to be there.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
And this was a big one.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
A lot of guys talking about this game where it's
like every pro is taking a position on Tennessee. And
I said to them, this isn't two three years ago.
This is a totally different league. These are key numbers,
and I'm not gonna lie to you. I was a
little scared when that number held at eight and a
half for a couple of days. I couldn't get over
that because it's like getting pounded by professional money and
(02:22):
public money. Luckily, been up all night. That extra hour
killed me. It was like, what am I supposed to
do with this? Yeah, we got some books popping the ten,
and that's why I needed to see. I needed to
see some books touch the ten because that lets me
know that they're not really trying to take a position
on Tennessee and that it's not all professional money holding
(02:43):
this one up.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
So we like the match up.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
I still can't believe we're doing this, like this is
such a non bet. We never make a really really
public road favorite after they had a blowout winning a
prime time game. But it's the trends are nice year,
and it's also a new age we talk about on football.
So this is just another back to back good right
spot for this Chargers team in a great matchup for them.
(03:06):
Like you said, key guys are out for this Tennessee
team on a team that can out afford to be
missing these guys, So we need this to hold. As
we are at nine, I would not take this at ten,
but if you can get it right now at nine,
I'd still get a people.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
I love that you took the extra hour to keep
doing more work and try to figure out how to
spend your time. I took the extra hour to exercise
for fifteen minutes on the peloton before the show instead
of after the show.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Well, it's again, you're not up to lay this.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
It's never not weird where every yar I forget when
the time changes and it's like, you know, it's one
thirty year, I'm working. All of a sudden, I look
up and I'm expecting to be two or three and
it's one fifteen.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Yeah, right, what what just happened? So that's always very weird.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
Again, as a man that's not barded, knowing in might
left to tell me the clocks are moving back, it's
never good.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
You can always call me.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
I'll tell you Minneapolis or Minneapolis Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit
is a nine point favorite. This was Chad's choice. This
is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up.
I think some of this is a lot of public
money starting to come in on Detroit at the end
of the day. The reason why I like this and
I think you like it too, is we believe Moore
and Jared Goff and Dan Campbell at home as big
(04:20):
favorites given their history plus their running game, which is
the strength of this team than we do in JJ
McCarthy on the road in his first game after nearly
two months of being out in a Vikings run defense
that just frankly has not been very good this year.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah, and this is another bet where I, like the
lonewy Slums say I wouldn't usually make this, but I
would years ago because what you.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Just talked about, it's Campbell golf.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
In a matchup at home against a team that's just
struggling right now. And this is not the answer, right JJ,
him coming in and burning us because there's no tape
on him, and he has this incredible impressive game because
there is a winner in him. We know he has,
of course a guy that knows how to win and
make big plays, big moments. But this just feels like
a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into.
(05:07):
Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the floor
is defense. It's not what it was last year.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
They're not getting these turnovers, they're not getting pressure on
the quarterback. You said their run defense is just terrible.
Their best thing is their pass defense. But I think
we've seen them against a couple of good passing all offenses.
That might not be so true. So it just might
be a horrible thats respot for them. Like you said,
this number a bunch of books already pushing nine and
a half. Hopefully people listen to chat here. Chad's choice
(05:34):
got a day and a half. It's moving on up.
It could get ten by kickoff.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Look at us two games down, two huge chocky public
favorites of more than a touchdown. This is what happened
to Us Denver at Houston Houston minus two.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Now, this was.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Our brass balls, and I got a lot of questions
about this. How can we make this brass balls? Look,
we're still betting a team that's under five hundred that
is a favorite in a game that flipped in which
they used to be underdogs against a first place team.
It's moved a little bit, I think because Miko Collins
is going to be playing, and it moved a little
(06:16):
bit off of the injury news about pass certain that
he won't be playing. So I like the matchup here,
I like the opportunity. I like the Texans defense. I
have no fear of betting this at two. We've been
betting at minus one and a half.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Yeah, And to the nay series, be happy we once
made the Chargers this bet, which I really don't think
takes any balls. I think this is much more balls
than the fact that, like Chad said, this is a
true test versig. This is gonna be the best defense
he's faced. This is gonna be the best offensive line.
This Houston's front is face defensively. So I think it
takes a little bit of balls. But the big reason
we loved it so much too, is we kept hammering home.
(06:52):
We thought the line, you're getting a good number, it's
proven out. I mean, a couple of really public books
out there are still at the one and a half.
I'd still grab that if you can, but a lot
of books. I've already hit two and a half this morning,
So you can see the way the professionals are going.
And I think it's another week the public's gonna try
to fade this Texas team like last week the forty
nine ers, but it's not as extreme. I think last
(07:13):
week we joked it was like eighty percent of the
bets and the money, yeah, was coming in on that
forty nine ers side. This is way more split, right,
there's much more professional money. The tickets obviously's on Denver,
but the money is on Houston here, so you know.
But we try to get out the best of the number.
I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out
the plus one and a half early in the week,
gave out the one and a half, and gave it
(07:33):
again on Thursday. So yeah, it's just a number. I
would be shocked if it all holds at two and
a half. I could see more buyback from the public
this morning on this Brocos team. But the direction, like
I said, it's going, is minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Last one we agree on Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas
City's minus two right now. This was Simon says when
it was Kansas City minus one and a half. This
one also has bounced around like it got as high
as two and a half, got that down. There's some
places where you can still get a one and a half.
I think there's some professional community elements here that really
(08:13):
like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding
high and might be a little overvalued because of.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Their wins the past few weeks.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense
as much as we playing Buffalo's defense, and we do
very much dress Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, and I think a lot of the Pros their position.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
They've come in on the plus two and a half
with this team, so you have seen it fluctuated, but
it does look like that's where it's starting to settle
a little bit, right, which I am shocked by. I
thought the Pros would keep this at minus one and
a half, just because I didn't realize there'd be so
much resistance here. I really thought the Bills would be
a public plan and the Pros would be on the
Chiefs team for what I talked about, Like it's as
(08:57):
much as people want to say, Josh Allen's numbers are
the same as they were the year before. Talk to
any real Bills fans. He just doesn't look the same.
He looks a little off. And the schedule has been
much softer this year than it was last year. And
that's including you know, a bad loss to the Patriots,
which you know, maybe the Patriots are better than getting
credit for, and then are really bad loss to Atlanta.
(09:17):
So I don't know this would be the type of
game that Josh Allens does show up and put up
big numbers. And that's what they're gonna need here because
I just look at this matchup for this Chiefs team.
I know the Bill's got guys back, but I just
don't see anyone their secondary. It's gonna give real problems
to this Chiefs passing attach. So, yeah, chat, I think
we have one and a half in the contest. Like
(09:38):
you said, it's it's minus two at hard rock shop
around see if you can still find the one a half.
Like I always say, two is such a number. This
is gonna be a tight one. I just can't see
either side blowing out either side. So a lot of
people ask about teasers. You can put this in the teasers,
but I just, if anything, I tease the Bills up,
which I don't want to be in this.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I don't want to be trying to middle this one.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
I'm just how they invested in the Chiefs here, so
to me, if you can find them one and a half,
obviously grab it.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
All right.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
So those are the four we know we like, Chargers, Lions, Texans, Chiefs.
How far we've come all favorites? Years ago we'd be
battling to find a favorite that we love, just one
to put into the contest. Now we have four that
we love and have totally agreed on. We're having a
(10:26):
hard time agreeing on a lot of other games this week.
There's three that I want to raise right now, including
the game that will be our rock and a hard
Place Hard Rock bet of the week. This one will not,
but I just want to ask you about it because
it all feels fishy to me. Chicago is a two
and a half point favorite at Cincinnati. It's been bet
(10:46):
down from three, so the wise Guys came in at three,
Trey Hundterson doubtful, Joe Flacco questionable. This line is stinky, stinky, stinky,
Like I don't get why should Cargo isn't being pounded?
And it's kept me for betting the Bears at minus
two and a half because it makes no sense that
knowing Trey Henderson is not going to be playing, and
(11:09):
that Joe Flacco is questionable and we're getting Jake Browning
and nobody on defense. Why is nobody in the wise
guy community betting the Bears?
Speaker 4 (11:17):
Because no one trusts the Bears, myself included, Like I
was gonna be all over this.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
If there was no Joe Flacco.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
But that's that's a big deal of the fact that
he's gonna be back against your very suspect banged up defense.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
So you know, Caleb should have a big game. He's
questionable though who Flacco.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
Yeah, he practiced though, and like he practiced I believe Thursday,
and then they showed him what they need to see
and so they rested him.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Okay, I can't state enough.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
He'll if he needs to, he'll get a shot like
it's they need him like, and he knows that he
wants to play. So I think they're gonna make it
work because I early bet the Bears and I thought
there was possibility there's gonna be no Flacco with you.
I think we talked about it on Thursday. Excuse I
saw you practiced. He looked good throwing it like just
(12:04):
same old Joe. So I just was, Okay, I'll get
out of this.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Position and another game where normally I'd be hammering this
Bengals team. This probably should be closer to a pick.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Honestly, again, no disrespect to this Bears team, but this
is a team that when they do win, they on
the road, especially, they win these close games that they
really have to grind it out and fight to get
that final possession. Like you know Vegas game, they stole
that one. Washington Commanders, they stole that game. It's really
interesting to see Caleb develop. I know, no swift right,
(12:36):
I think swifts out for this game as well. Here's
been a bright spot for this team offensively, so I
think that's why the pros have come in. But like
you said, I I'm happy this another game. Just happy
to forid if I can. Because Joe Flacco takes around
hit like you're talking about they'll yank hm. He just
he's playing on already on a bad shoulder and on
the flip side. I just don't know how much I
(12:56):
trust the Bears as a two point two and a
half point favorite on the road, even against a suspect
team like the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Same, That's why I haven't really invested in this game.
Carolina plus thirteen at Green Bay. We talked about it
on Thursday, Simon, Carolina is going to be our rocket,
A hard place, hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
What a lot. Look Bryce Young is starting.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
This line is barely moved, and I feel like The
number is based on a really bad game for Carolina
in which Andy Daltlin was playing against Buffalo, and a
really good twenty minutes for the Green Bay Packers against
the Steelers from five forty three on. Against the Steelers,
the Packers dominated, they won, They outscored them twenty one
(13:52):
to six in the final twenty minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
So it just feels like too big.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
Of a number for Alina team that is getting discounted
because of a really really bad game that could have
been and anomaly for how they had been trending both
defensively and with Brice Young.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
I feel like this number price of fleta lot because
there are some pros taking positions on Green Bay because
they viewed last week as Okay, this is gonna be
the green Bay getting healthier, now getting into form and
just gonna start steamrolling teams because they are I mean
most people have them graded out as like the third
or fourth best team uh in NFC. I mean, I
know a lot of people in media have them number
one because their record, but.
Speaker 3 (14:37):
They're still an unproven team.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
So that's why it's like, yeah, if if we get
burned here, it would be brutal, but This is an
insanely afflated lie.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Like I feel as like I think you were in
a Green sare.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
This probably should be ten because this Carolina team got
so embarrassed and the flip side. Green Bay had such
a dominant win. It feels they were getting three points.
I mean, there's thirteen and a half's out there, people,
So we know the deal here. We're gonna need Bryce
Sharing to put up points right Caroline's defense Green Bay,
if if Jordan loves on, they're gonna be able to
move the ball. They just don't have defensive weapons that
(15:07):
really get stops. I guess the team that just has
multiple receivers that rotate that are good and then Tucker
Craft in that run game, it's just a really when
Green Bay has got to going, we know we're walking
into one ear. But I think, like we talked about
this defense that can be passed on. You know, we've
seen even Jacoby Brissette was passing the ball against the
screen Bay defense, Like they have a secondary that can
(15:28):
be passed on. All the weapons are healthy for Carolina
passing game rise. Rico dow is apparently gonna be the
number one today, which I really love for the Carolina, like,
this guy's earned it huge. I'm a huge Hue of
Hubber fan, but let's be honest here, it's just it's
it's night and day.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
We could down.
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Every time you touch the ball, it feels like he's
getting six or seven yards. So we should have our
number one back, whether our number one quarterback, with all
the weapons in Carolina here, and it's just a big spread,
so we're always gonna be given it.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Even when we're down.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
Twenty to nothing, Chad me and you are still gonna
be believing totally. We still got this back through opportunity.
So I love that fact this is up to thirteen,
such a key number, and we both agree this is
an inflated line, all right.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
So the one thing that scares me the most is
I love watching Matt Lafleur press conferences.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
He's kind of a dick, and he gave a great answer.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
They asked him a question in the press conference about
Halloween and his answer was, I told my assistant, I
don't give a shit if it's Halloween.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I'm trying to win a game.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Jesus.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
That is what's scary when you're talking about Matt Lafleor.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
We've bet on that attitude a couple of times and
it hasn't worked out. So I'm hoping today again it
can be another win for us with Carolina.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Crazy as the floor is, he doesn't really lay it
on teams.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
He tries to keep as many places as you can
hit in it, which I love about Lafloor, Like if
he's up by ten, they just run it three times.
Like they get it back, they'll just run it three times. So,
like we talked about, this is just a very, very
big number.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
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Last game, and I feel like this is the one
we're going to put in for our fifth Atlanta at
New England. The line is four and a half. It's
(19:05):
been met down from five and a half. I liked
Atlanta at five and a half. You've liked New England.
I just feel like New England is at peak peak.
Peak in Atlanta because of what happened last week is
low low low, and they're getting the players back that
miss last week to make.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
It go low, low, low low. So tell the people
what you told me before we went on.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
The air, Jesus, Jeff, I basically let Chad know very rare.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Do I get bullied at the book about Chad's picks
and me missing it and Chad seeing it.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
But that's how professionals better.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
Field this Atlanta game, and like I said on the show,
I even think I said on Thursday, like I know
this is the professional side. There's a ton of games
this week, like this should be a great week for
the professionals and the sports book.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
But just worried.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
We're just in a new age here and that's my
fear here. Like everything you said is true. New England's overinflated.
This line should be three to three and a half.
We've seen at times when New Englands looked bad like
they did against Pittsburgh, and you know, turnover bug hits
them and they're just not a mature team, right like
Rabel came er, this is the first year.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
They still have many holes.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
That's you know, shielded because they have such an easy schedule,
Like they just haven't played tough matchups. So for this one,
a lot of pros what they talked about is I
think a little bit what you spoke about is if
you're going to attack this Patriots team, Sure they might
be good at stopping the run, but they're really susceptible
to back running backs out of the backfield, which you know,
Robinson could be argued as one of the best receiving
(20:43):
backs out of the backfield, and they're not good across
the middle. Right, they're not great with tight ends and
patterns through the middle of the field. So think it'd
be a big pits game as well. So they do
have the pieces on Atlantic to really make this team struggle.
And it is five and a half in the contest,
so I.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Haven't bet it.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
I've like I told you, I took a little position
in Atlanta on the Patriots really had no feel for
this game. But you're confident it other pro you're confident.
I'm not going to fight you on if we put
in as our fifth one.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Well, I like it.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Also, we're getting a little bit of a better number.
I think Green Bay in this game. Is the contest
is twelve and a half, so we like Carolina plus
thirteen and a half. We like Atlanta at least.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I do.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
I think we're going to put I know we're going
to put. I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest.
So to be clear, our final five are going to
be Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
It's nine right now. We like it at nine. It's
eight and a half in the contest.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
No, No, Chargers are nine and a half in contest.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest.
I think we're fine with that.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Yeah, yeah, I said, as long as on the ten.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
Minus nine and a half Kansas City, we're putting them
in the contest. One and a half in the contest. Yeah, great,
it's one and a half's are still out there, go
get it. Houston one and a half in the contest.
I think you can still get some one and a
half's on Houston. Detroit eight and a half in the contest.
(22:16):
It's gonna be tough to find eight and a half's,
but we like Detroit at nine as well, which is
what you can get in a lot of places right now.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Atlanta is four and a half. We liked it at
five and a half.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
We're going to take advantage of that or playing Atlanta
five and a half in the contest.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
So those are the final five.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live
at seven point thirty after the afternoon games after.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
Chiefs Bills Really to recap.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
All the misery and glory of the day, watch or
listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video subscribe
to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
you get your podse rate, review, subscribe it was five stars.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is gift until tonight.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
Love you, Hey, let's be careful.
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We
are part of the Volume pod Cast network. This is
the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chadmilman.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
I am joined as always by my BFF, my companion,
my co host, MIKEL Padre, professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. How are we doing?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Dude?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Ready to rock and roll? State up late to watch
some great baseball. Not impacted by moving the clocks.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Back at all. I am ready to roll.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
This is the strip down in the room eavedropping version
of Sharper Square. You and I are going to try
to nail down our five picks now that we know
all about the injuries and the latest line moves.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Are you ready, Simon Hunter?
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Let's get into it.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
These are the.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Games that we had pretty much locked in on the
other day, and I think we feel good about four.
We're going to have a challenge on the fifth. Here
we go, Los Angeles Charters minus nine Tennessee. Reminder, our
history with the Chargers in this spot is not good meeting.
When we back them on the road as a favorite,
it gets a team that we think stinks, but this
(01:12):
is not just a bad team. It is a bad
team that is without Calvin Ridley at receiver. Today is
without starting safety Xavier Woods. It is without starting linebacker
Art and Key, and most importantly their best player, defensive
tackle Jeffrey Simmons. Last thing I'll say because I want
to get to your take on this. When ESPN reported
Jeffrey Simmons was not going to be playing, they listed
(01:35):
five players who are going to be trying to fill
his role in rotation.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
That's not good.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
Yeah, And it's a game that I laughed about because
I've been getting a lot of shit the books this week,
like last night World Series. Everyone's there, even guys I
haven't seen in a while, came to the book last
night because it's like it's just a night you got
to be there.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
And this was a big one.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
A lot of guys talking about this game where it's
like every pro is taking a position on Tennessee. And
I said to them, this isn't two three years ago.
This is a totally different league. These are key numbers,
and I'm not gonna lie to you. I was a
little scared when that number held at eight and a
half for a couple of days. I couldn't get over
that because it's like getting pounded by professional money and
(02:22):
public money. Luckily, been up all night. That extra hour
killed me. It was like, what am I supposed to
do with this? Yeah, we got some books popping the ten,
and that's why I needed to see. I needed to
see some books touch the ten because that lets me
know that they're not really trying to take a position
on Tennessee and that it's not all professional money holding
(02:43):
this one up.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
So we like the match up.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
I still can't believe we're doing this, like this is
such a non bet. We never make a really really
public road favorite after they had a blowout winning a
prime time game. But it's the trends are nice year,
and it's also a new age we talk about on football.
So this is just another back to back good right
spot for this Chargers team in a great matchup for them.
(03:06):
Like you said, key guys are out for this Tennessee
team on a team that can out afford to be
missing these guys, So we need this to hold. As
we are at nine, I would not take this at ten,
but if you can get it right now at nine,
I'd still get a people.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
I love that you took the extra hour to keep
doing more work and try to figure out how to
spend your time. I took the extra hour to exercise
for fifteen minutes on the peloton before the show instead
of after the show.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Well, it's again, you're not up to lay this.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
It's never not weird where every yar I forget when
the time changes and it's like, you know, it's one
thirty year, I'm working. All of a sudden, I look
up and I'm expecting to be two or three and
it's one fifteen.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Yeah, right, what what just happened? So that's always very weird.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
Again, as a man that's not barded, knowing in might
left to tell me the clocks are moving back, it's
never good.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
You can always call me.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
I'll tell you Minneapolis or Minneapolis Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit
is a nine point favorite. This was Chad's choice. This
is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up.
I think some of this is a lot of public
money starting to come in on Detroit at the end
of the day. The reason why I like this and
I think you like it too, is we believe Moore
and Jared Goff and Dan Campbell at home as big
(04:20):
favorites given their history plus their running game, which is
the strength of this team than we do in JJ
McCarthy on the road in his first game after nearly
two months of being out in a Vikings run defense
that just frankly has not been very good this year.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah, and this is another bet where I, like the
lonewy Slums say I wouldn't usually make this, but I
would years ago because what you.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Just talked about, it's Campbell golf.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
In a matchup at home against a team that's just
struggling right now. And this is not the answer, right JJ,
him coming in and burning us because there's no tape
on him, and he has this incredible impressive game because
there is a winner in him. We know he has,
of course a guy that knows how to win and
make big plays, big moments. But this just feels like
a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into.
(05:07):
Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the floor
is defense. It's not what it was last year.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
They're not getting these turnovers, they're not getting pressure on
the quarterback. You said their run defense is just terrible.
Their best thing is their pass defense. But I think
we've seen them against a couple of good passing all offenses.
That might not be so true. So it just might
be a horrible thats respot for them. Like you said,
this number a bunch of books already pushing nine and
a half. Hopefully people listen to chat here. Chad's choice
(05:34):
got a day and a half. It's moving on up.
It could get ten by kickoff.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Look at us two games down, two huge chocky public
favorites of more than a touchdown. This is what happened
to Us Denver at Houston Houston minus two.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Now, this was.
Speaker 1 (05:54):
Our brass balls, and I got a lot of questions
about this. How can we make this brass balls? Look,
we're still betting a team that's under five hundred that
is a favorite in a game that flipped in which
they used to be underdogs against a first place team.
It's moved a little bit, I think because Miko Collins
is going to be playing, and it moved a little
(06:16):
bit off of the injury news about pass certain that
he won't be playing. So I like the matchup here,
I like the opportunity. I like the Texans defense. I
have no fear of betting this at two. We've been
betting at minus one and a half.
Speaker 4 (06:30):
Yeah, And to the nay series, be happy we once
made the Chargers this bet, which I really don't think
takes any balls. I think this is much more balls
than the fact that, like Chad said, this is a
true test versig. This is gonna be the best defense
he's faced. This is gonna be the best offensive line.
This Houston's front is face defensively. So I think it
takes a little bit of balls. But the big reason
we loved it so much too, is we kept hammering home.
(06:52):
We thought the line, you're getting a good number, it's
proven out. I mean, a couple of really public books
out there are still at the one and a half.
I'd still grab that if you can, but a lot
of books. I've already hit two and a half this morning,
So you can see the way the professionals are going.
And I think it's another week the public's gonna try
to fade this Texas team like last week the forty
nine ers, but it's not as extreme. I think last
(07:13):
week we joked it was like eighty percent of the
bets and the money, yeah, was coming in on that
forty nine ers side. This is way more split, right,
there's much more professional money. The tickets obviously's on Denver,
but the money is on Houston here, so you know.
But we try to get out the best of the number.
I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out
the plus one and a half early in the week,
gave out the one and a half, and gave it
(07:33):
again on Thursday. So yeah, it's just a number. I
would be shocked if it all holds at two and
a half. I could see more buyback from the public
this morning on this Brocos team. But the direction, like
I said, it's going, is minus two and a half.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Last one we agree on Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas
City's minus two right now. This was Simon says when
it was Kansas City minus one and a half. This
one also has bounced around like it got as high
as two and a half, got that down. There's some
places where you can still get a one and a half.
I think there's some professional community elements here that really
(08:13):
like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding
high and might be a little overvalued because of.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Their wins the past few weeks.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense
as much as we playing Buffalo's defense, and we do
very much dress Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, and I think a lot of the Pros their position.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
They've come in on the plus two and a half
with this team, so you have seen it fluctuated, but
it does look like that's where it's starting to settle
a little bit, right, which I am shocked by. I
thought the Pros would keep this at minus one and
a half, just because I didn't realize there'd be so
much resistance here. I really thought the Bills would be
a public plan and the Pros would be on the
Chiefs team for what I talked about, Like it's as
(08:57):
much as people want to say, Josh Allen's numbers are
the same as they were the year before. Talk to
any real Bills fans. He just doesn't look the same.
He looks a little off. And the schedule has been
much softer this year than it was last year. And
that's including you know, a bad loss to the Patriots,
which you know, maybe the Patriots are better than getting
credit for, and then are really bad loss to Atlanta.
(09:17):
So I don't know this would be the type of
game that Josh Allens does show up and put up
big numbers. And that's what they're gonna need here because
I just look at this matchup for this Chiefs team.
I know the Bill's got guys back, but I just
don't see anyone their secondary. It's gonna give real problems
to this Chiefs passing attach. So, yeah, chat, I think
we have one and a half in the contest. Like
(09:38):
you said, it's it's minus two at hard rock shop
around see if you can still find the one a half.
Like I always say, two is such a number. This
is gonna be a tight one. I just can't see
either side blowing out either side. So a lot of
people ask about teasers. You can put this in the teasers,
but I just, if anything, I tease the Bills up,
which I don't want to be in this.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I don't want to be trying to middle this one.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
I'm just how they invested in the Chiefs here, so
to me, if you can find them one and a half,
obviously grab it.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
All right.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
So those are the four we know we like, Chargers, Lions, Texans, Chiefs.
How far we've come all favorites? Years ago we'd be
battling to find a favorite that we love, just one
to put into the contest. Now we have four that
we love and have totally agreed on. We're having a
(10:26):
hard time agreeing on a lot of other games this week.
There's three that I want to raise right now, including
the game that will be our rock and a hard
Place Hard Rock bet of the week. This one will not,
but I just want to ask you about it because
it all feels fishy to me. Chicago is a two
and a half point favorite at Cincinnati. It's been bet
(10:46):
down from three, so the wise Guys came in at three,
Trey Hundterson doubtful, Joe Flacco questionable. This line is stinky, stinky, stinky,
Like I don't get why should Cargo isn't being pounded?
And it's kept me for betting the Bears at minus
two and a half because it makes no sense that
knowing Trey Henderson is not going to be playing, and
(11:09):
that Joe Flacco is questionable and we're getting Jake Browning
and nobody on defense. Why is nobody in the wise
guy community betting the Bears?
Speaker 4 (11:17):
Because no one trusts the Bears, myself included, Like I
was gonna be all over this.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
If there was no Joe Flacco.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
But that's that's a big deal of the fact that
he's gonna be back against your very suspect banged up defense.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
So you know, Caleb should have a big game. He's
questionable though who Flacco.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
Yeah, he practiced though, and like he practiced I believe Thursday,
and then they showed him what they need to see
and so they rested him.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Okay, I can't state enough.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
He'll if he needs to, he'll get a shot like
it's they need him like, and he knows that he
wants to play. So I think they're gonna make it
work because I early bet the Bears and I thought
there was possibility there's gonna be no Flacco with you.
I think we talked about it on Thursday. Excuse I
saw you practiced. He looked good throwing it like just
(12:04):
same old Joe. So I just was, Okay, I'll get
out of this.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Position and another game where normally I'd be hammering this
Bengals team. This probably should be closer to a pick.
Speaker 4 (12:13):
Honestly, again, no disrespect to this Bears team, but this
is a team that when they do win, they on
the road, especially, they win these close games that they
really have to grind it out and fight to get
that final possession. Like you know Vegas game, they stole
that one. Washington Commanders, they stole that game. It's really
interesting to see Caleb develop. I know, no swift right,
(12:36):
I think swifts out for this game as well. Here's
been a bright spot for this team offensively, so I
think that's why the pros have come in. But like
you said, I I'm happy this another game. Just happy
to forid if I can. Because Joe Flacco takes around
hit like you're talking about they'll yank hm. He just
he's playing on already on a bad shoulder and on
the flip side. I just don't know how much I
(12:56):
trust the Bears as a two point two and a
half point favorite on the road, even against a suspect
team like the Bengals.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Same, That's why I haven't really invested in this game.
Carolina plus thirteen at Green Bay. We talked about it
on Thursday, Simon, Carolina is going to be our rocket,
A hard place, hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
What a lot. Look Bryce Young is starting.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
This line is barely moved, and I feel like The
number is based on a really bad game for Carolina
in which Andy Daltlin was playing against Buffalo, and a
really good twenty minutes for the Green Bay Packers against
the Steelers from five forty three on. Against the Steelers,
the Packers dominated, they won, They outscored them twenty one
(13:52):
to six in the final twenty minutes.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
So it just feels like too big.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
Of a number for Alina team that is getting discounted
because of a really really bad game that could have
been and anomaly for how they had been trending both
defensively and with Brice Young.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
I feel like this number price of fleta lot because
there are some pros taking positions on Green Bay because
they viewed last week as Okay, this is gonna be
the green Bay getting healthier, now getting into form and
just gonna start steamrolling teams because they are I mean
most people have them graded out as like the third
or fourth best team uh in NFC. I mean, I
know a lot of people in media have them number
one because their record, but.
Speaker 3 (14:37):
They're still an unproven team.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
So that's why it's like, yeah, if if we get
burned here, it would be brutal, but This is an
insanely afflated lie.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Like I feel as like I think you were in
a Green sare.
Speaker 4 (14:47):
This probably should be ten because this Carolina team got
so embarrassed and the flip side. Green Bay had such
a dominant win. It feels they were getting three points.
I mean, there's thirteen and a half's out there, people,
So we know the deal here. We're gonna need Bryce
Sharing to put up points right Caroline's defense Green Bay,
if if Jordan loves on, they're gonna be able to
move the ball. They just don't have defensive weapons that
(15:07):
really get stops. I guess the team that just has
multiple receivers that rotate that are good and then Tucker
Craft in that run game, it's just a really when
Green Bay has got to going, we know we're walking
into one ear. But I think, like we talked about
this defense that can be passed on. You know, we've
seen even Jacoby Brissette was passing the ball against the
screen Bay defense, Like they have a secondary that can
(15:28):
be passed on. All the weapons are healthy for Carolina
passing game rise. Rico dow is apparently gonna be the
number one today, which I really love for the Carolina, like,
this guy's earned it huge. I'm a huge Hue of
Hubber fan, but let's be honest here, it's just it's
it's night and day.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
We could down.
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Every time you touch the ball, it feels like he's
getting six or seven yards. So we should have our
number one back, whether our number one quarterback, with all
the weapons in Carolina here, and it's just a big spread,
so we're always gonna be given it.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Even when we're down.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
Twenty to nothing, Chad me and you are still gonna
be believing totally. We still got this back through opportunity.
So I love that fact this is up to thirteen,
such a key number, and we both agree this is
an inflated line, all right.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
So the one thing that scares me the most is
I love watching Matt Lafleur press conferences.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
He's kind of a dick, and he gave a great answer.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
They asked him a question in the press conference about
Halloween and his answer was, I told my assistant, I
don't give a shit if it's Halloween.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
I'm trying to win a game.
Speaker 3 (16:28):
Jesus.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
That is what's scary when you're talking about Matt Lafleor.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
We've bet on that attitude a couple of times and
it hasn't worked out. So I'm hoping today again it
can be another win for us with Carolina.
Speaker 3 (16:44):
Crazy as the floor is, he doesn't really lay it
on teams.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
He tries to keep as many places as you can
hit in it, which I love about Lafloor, Like if
he's up by ten, they just run it three times.
Like they get it back, they'll just run it three times. So,
like we talked about, this is just a very, very
big number.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
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Last game, and I feel like this is the one
we're going to put in for our fifth Atlanta at
New England. The line is four and a half. It's
(19:05):
been met down from five and a half. I liked
Atlanta at five and a half. You've liked New England.
I just feel like New England is at peak peak.
Peak in Atlanta because of what happened last week is
low low low, and they're getting the players back that
miss last week to make.
Speaker 2 (19:25):
It go low, low, low low. So tell the people
what you told me before we went on.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
The air, Jesus, Jeff, I basically let Chad know very rare.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Do I get bullied at the book about Chad's picks
and me missing it and Chad seeing it.
Speaker 3 (19:47):
But that's how professionals better.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
Field this Atlanta game, and like I said on the show,
I even think I said on Thursday, like I know
this is the professional side. There's a ton of games
this week, like this should be a great week for
the professionals and the sports book.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
But just worried.
Speaker 4 (20:01):
We're just in a new age here and that's my
fear here. Like everything you said is true. New England's overinflated.
This line should be three to three and a half.
We've seen at times when New Englands looked bad like
they did against Pittsburgh, and you know, turnover bug hits
them and they're just not a mature team, right like
Rabel came er, this is the first year.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
They still have many holes.
Speaker 4 (20:21):
That's you know, shielded because they have such an easy schedule,
Like they just haven't played tough matchups. So for this one,
a lot of pros what they talked about is I
think a little bit what you spoke about is if
you're going to attack this Patriots team, Sure they might
be good at stopping the run, but they're really susceptible
to back running backs out of the backfield, which you know,
Robinson could be argued as one of the best receiving
(20:43):
backs out of the backfield, and they're not good across
the middle. Right, they're not great with tight ends and
patterns through the middle of the field. So think it'd
be a big pits game as well. So they do
have the pieces on Atlantic to really make this team struggle.
And it is five and a half in the contest,
so I.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Haven't bet it.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
I've like I told you, I took a little position
in Atlanta on the Patriots really had no feel for
this game. But you're confident it other pro you're confident.
I'm not going to fight you on if we put
in as our fifth one.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Well, I like it.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Also, we're getting a little bit of a better number.
I think Green Bay in this game. Is the contest
is twelve and a half, so we like Carolina plus
thirteen and a half. We like Atlanta at least.
Speaker 2 (21:26):
I do.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
I think we're going to put I know we're going
to put. I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest.
So to be clear, our final five are going to
be Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
It's nine right now. We like it at nine. It's
eight and a half in the contest.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
No, No, Chargers are nine and a half in contest.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest.
I think we're fine with that.
Speaker 3 (21:51):
Yeah, yeah, I said, as long as on the ten.
Speaker 1 (21:53):
Minus nine and a half Kansas City, we're putting them
in the contest. One and a half in the contest. Yeah, great,
it's one and a half's are still out there, go
get it. Houston one and a half in the contest.
I think you can still get some one and a
half's on Houston. Detroit eight and a half in the contest.
(22:16):
It's gonna be tough to find eight and a half's,
but we like Detroit at nine as well, which is
what you can get in a lot of places right now.
Speaker 2 (22:24):
Atlanta is four and a half. We liked it at
five and a half.
Speaker 1 (22:27):
We're going to take advantage of that or playing Atlanta
five and a half in the contest.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
So those are the final five.
Speaker 1 (22:36):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight live
at seven point thirty after the afternoon games after.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
Chiefs Bills Really to recap.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
All the misery and glory of the day, watch or
listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video subscribe
to the channel. Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
you get your podse rate, review, subscribe it was five stars.
Speaker 2 (23:00):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is gift until tonight.
Speaker 3 (23:03):
Love you, Hey, let's be careful.
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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