Sunday morning last-minute look at the latest NFL odds and best bets from expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter. They lock in their picks and predictions for the big NFL Week 1 matchups: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets, Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills, and Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars.
All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
Timeline:
02:00 - Intro
05:18 - Titans-Broncos
07:48 - Bengals-Browns
08:06 - Ravens-Bills
09:18 - Lions-Packers
11:18 - Steelers-Jets
12:10 - Raiders-Patriots
13:52 - 49ers-Seahawks
18:24 - Panthers-Jaguars
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock that we
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Nouman. I am
joined by my cost my bff, Mike Companion, mikem Fadre
professional better signon Hunter, Hello Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Chad, good morning to you, my good friend.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Good morning on the first Sunday of the NFL season
twenty twenty five. This is this We're calling this like
the stripped down in the room easdropping version of Sharper
Square because this will be doing on Sunday mornings going forward.
And as most listeners know, you and I have been
doing contests for years, whether or not people were able
(00:44):
to play along, and on that Sunday morning of the
NFL season, when we're putting in our final picks, you
and I would be having a conversation about what the
final five picks should be. And it was just us
basically arguing and debating with each other over the final
five picks for about ten or fifteen minutes. We decided,
(01:06):
like before Sunday kickoffs for this season, we're going to
let people into the room where it happens, so they
can get in real time what we're planning on doing
because things change, like we might want to make picks
that are on the wrong on the right side of
(01:26):
massive line moves over the past forty eight hours, injuries,
et cetera. Stuff changes since Thursday. So now you get
to hear all of that convo. Are you ready sign it?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
I am, And people should know we're going to do
our best not to make too many changes right now.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
People hear what our five are.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
It's the same five I put in Tuesday. So if
we make changes today, we can't help. But people, we're
just like, we're like all of you right the Sunday
Morning panic is real. And I looked at it my
lineup this morning. I woke up and it's like, how
do you not overthink every thing you do?
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (02:00):
So, yeah, I'm I'm loving this this new routine we're
doing here. I think it's really gonna be funny show
unhinged we are by week seven eight, So yeah, right now,
CD very happy. Life is good. It's gonna be interesting
how this Sunday show keeps going throughout this season.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, we're gonna be We're gonna be quick, cause I
know people are trying to do a lot of things
on Sunday morning. So the idea isn't here deep. The
idea here isn't deep dives into every game. It's just
quick recap on where we stand and how honestly Saturday
and Sunday, I was like, I don't know, making breakfast
or something yesterday and this morning too when I woke up,
I had like a little tingle because I'm like, all right,
(02:39):
I get to check lines. I get to see how
things have changed. I get to see if some of
the numbers I want have moved in my direction, have
they moved away from me? And am I going to
be an idiot and just chase the number? Anyways? Because
I feel like this is my last best chance. I'm
trying to be really focusing, disciplined. So a couple of
things to think about. The contests Simon and I play,
they lock lines at different times, So we might talk
(03:02):
about games where lines of locked on Tuesday or Wednesday.
If we're playing that locked line from a Tuesday or Wednesday,
we're not going to recommend you played in a contest
that has lines locking.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Today.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
We'll give you some alternatives, So don't worry. We're not
going to leave you in the literature. Simon first game,
like Tennessee at Denver, your choice for brass Balls, you
own it. I will happily accept the w if it works,
and joyfully remind you of your mistakes later tonight. If
(03:33):
it doesn't, any regrets hearing anything to change your mind.
At this point, the hard rock bet line on this
game is eight. I don't know what our contest line is.
Is it seven and a half?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Yeah? Contests seven and a half, So it's just like
the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I love the Cowboys. This week our contest was six
and a half. We didn't play like if it was
eight and a half in our contest, we would have
played Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's the same thing here with Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
I like Tennessee, but why would I be betting so
much eight and a half? And now we're playing our
most important contest of the year at seven and a half,
so we can force it in if we want to.
But to me, there's better better numbers out there. And
if this number of lands on eight and we lose
this contest, I would lose my mind about that.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Cause again, people were sticklers. We might annoy you. We're
talking about how me and Chat always want the best
of the number. We get it right. The first two
games that spread did not matter.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
One game this week will matter on the spread, and
that of course will be the game Mean Chat put
our contest. So we are sticklers about it because we've
been burned by the half a point by.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
The point, you know, like Dallas, I really loved it.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
If it was seven and a half, I think I
could have forced us to take it. But at six
and a half, Mean Chat aren't going to take a
line that's off by two points just because we love it.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
So that's what people have to work us here.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
There's some games that we'll put in sometimes that even
if we don't love it, it's the values too insane
to pass on and we're just playing the long term
odds here. So yeah, the Tennessee game, I do love it, Chat,
I still love it. It's seven and a half for
our current test. I don't know if it's gonna be
one of our four.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Best picks five best picks. I already put Chargers in, brother,
So oh you did?
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I didn't even know that?
Speaker 2 (05:13):
No, no, all right, yeah, we're already up one nothing
brother three.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Look at us, all right, we got we had the Chargers.
What was the final line in the Chargers three and.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
A half or three and a half?
Speaker 1 (05:25):
All right, so we had chargers three and a half. Uh,
we're gonna have to get better at telegraphing this for
our listeners as we go through the SAT.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
On the show, auto play three and a half Chargers
contest line. So I get what you're saying, but yeah,
I just I don't want to put anything on social media.
If you want our if you want our contest plays,
this is where you're gonna have to find it.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
That's fair. That's fair, all right. Cincinnati and Cleveland still
love it. The hard rocked bet line is five and
a half is five, The contest line is five and
a half.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Book it locked in so like again, one of the
five players I put in on Tuesday Cleveland plus five
and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
So we'll keep it in there.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Baltimore at Buffalo. The hard reck bet line is Baltimore
minus one. Full disclosure. I played at minus one. We
talked about it on the show. It was our rock
and a hard Place, Hard Rock Better of the Week,
Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where
the Linus flipped from Baltimore as an underdog to Baltimore
as a favorite. Those are scary, sticky spots to play.
(06:28):
But in the lot, in the contest lines we play,
it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it day.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Yeah, and people listening to the show, I'd bet up
to minus two. So if you're out there and you
can still get the minus one and a half, I'd
still take this on the Ravens live betting. And you know,
this is a game that both teams have injuries to
different positions, and obviously at the end of the day,
the biggest weakness to meet this matchup is the Bills secondary.
So I do think we have a huge advantage with
this Ravens passing offense. And we meet chat talking nauseum.
(07:00):
This is regular season, Lamar. This is exactly where we
want to back them, this exact spot. So, yeah, what
I've loved to have him as a dog. Yes, those
that would have been really nice to give it out
this morning as a dog once again, but the line
has flipped. I'm telling you I'd still been up to
minus two and me and Chad we're taking it plus
one and a half in the contest.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Detroit at Green Bay. Look, this is my Chad Loves Love.
When it was at two and a half, it's now
one and a half at hard Rock Bet it's one
and a half in the contest. I feel like we
got to pass on this one. The value has moved
away from us. I was sort of holding out hoping
(07:43):
it would get to three. Like I said, I'm trying
to be super thoughtful this year and not just AutoPlay
a bet because my spidy senses are saying this is
the right side or there's too much value, so I
don't want to force this in at all. We're not
getting the best. The number two and a half is
the right value. Two and a half has become a
(08:04):
key number. The market is recognized that maybe there was
some inflation on the packers. Not a play for me.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Okay, yeah, so this is another game that this is
one of the five I put in for us on Tuesday,
And my view of it was we got to put
one super chalky public play right now. That could be
the Ravens, so we don't have to force in the lines.
Like you said, we do love the lines, but yeah,
it's not the best number and It is by.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Far the biggest public dog of the week. I mean
it is everyone I talk to.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's all Detroit money for what meants I believe is
good reason. So okay, we don't have to force that
went in. There are some other lines we can put
it instead of that. Once, I'll switch it out.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
So right now, just to recap, we've got Chargers at
three and a half. We already covered that one. We're
putting in Cleveland five and a half. We're putting in
Baltimore plus one and a half. We like Baltimore up
to minus two, so if you're in a contest and
you're getting Baltimore minus one, have no fear play it.
We're passing on Detroit at plus one and a half
because we like the value at two and a half.
(09:02):
I'll own that. If it works out and we end
up losing a game that we put in because we
took Detroit out, I'm going to eat it, no problem.
All right, then, we got a bunch of games to
debate here, So we got three in right now, Pittsburgh
and New York Jets. This line has been sort of
(09:24):
hanging around three all weekend, but this morning it's been
moving in the Jets direction, it's at two and a half.
It's two and a half at hard rot Bet, it's
two and a half in the contest. I don't know, brother,
this one coming off the three scares me a little bit.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Yeah, it's it's definitely a pros Verst jaws with the
pros are lining up on the.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Jets team and the public.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
They keep coming in heavy on this Pittsburgh side, And
for me looking at this matchup, a lot of things
I do love about the Jets, and I love this number.
But Chad's right, we love it at three. We were
hoping for three and a half. In contest. We're sitting
here Sunday morning, it's two and a half. You'll see
I didn't even have this one in on Tuesday. I
love this game, but there's just other games I love more.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
This week.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Las Vegas at New England, Las Vegas is two and
a half. Right now, it touched the three. It just
kissed the three, little tiny peck now is it two
and a half everywhere including hard Rock Bat. It's like
they're really making it hard on us right now. The
Jets are two and a half, the Raiders at two
(10:32):
and a half. I played both of these games at three.
I probably feel better putting the Raiders in at two
and a half than the Jets at two and a half.
Do you have an opinion on that?
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Yeah, once again, I love the Raiders are just other
games I love more.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
So, It's another game.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
I didn't put it in first on Tuesday, and my
view of it was a little bit the same thing. Right,
I didn't know that Christian Gonzalez was out yet, so
I could be tucked into it. Right, He's Christian gonzalezes out, which.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Is arguably their best player.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
You know the kid they drafted, you know, he's got
a tall task today. I think was Will Howard, I
forget the name of the Will Campbell has a big
ask today. He's a rookie, asked the draft they drafted,
asked to block Max Crosby.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Like to me, we have advantages.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
That we can attack and exploit here with this Raiders team,
and this is a good match for them in many ways.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
But at the end of the day, I'm trying to
stay true to it.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Chad, where it's I love the Raiders season long, and
I'm worried I'm being a little too blind to it.
Where I'm so heavily invested this game, and there's just
so much I like about this team compared to this
New England team. And yeah, I'm like, I already know
I'm gonna kick myself if I don't take this one
and they cover. But like I said, there's there's other
games I like more, and I just did not put
this one in first Tuesday. So if you want to
(11:45):
be the breaker and this is the game you want
to force in, I'm not going to stop you. But
I think there's other games We're gonna go through the
list here that you might you might like better.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
Well, the last one I want to bring up. I
know we got three in so far, we need two more.
San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle is plus two and a
half the contest plus one right now at most books,
including hard Rock BET. I feel like you're going to
tell me you love this game and that you have
done all the research and now with questions about McCaffrey
and like you talked about on Thursday, Kubeak's ability to
(12:17):
create a rush scheme that takes advantage of the outside
lanes where the Niners don't have the same personnel that
they used to and that could be a spot and
you like the Seahawks defense. I feel like you were
going to tell me we got to play the number
here because the value is so is so huge on Seattle.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
It isn't it.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
It really does come down to the Caffrey injury, right,
And I think I was very confident coming to this
week about the Seahawks team loving the matchup. And I
mean I could not walk through a sportsbook about a
pro come up to me and asking me what my
redos on this game and how much they love it
if they're ever thinking, and I'd agree with them. We we
just talked about, right, I love the Seahawks defense. I
think they're going to match up really well against this
forty nine ers team. And then the secondary of the
(12:58):
forty nine or Droid like you just talked about, they've
lost really key pieces and free agency to injury to
the years. Right now, they have a really young secondary.
They're gonna be tested by this run blocking scheme. Are
these corners gonna step up and tackle? Are there safety?
Is gonna play downhill and make the right place. So
a lot of questions to me about this Fortinitans defense
where Seattle I know exactly the defensive scheme I'm gonna
(13:19):
get and now if there's no McCaffrey and their main
focus would be shutting just down party. I mean, come on,
that is such a huge matchup and such a big
deal for the Seahawks defense. So yeah, you nailed it.
It's really about the number plus two and a half.
We love it. You know most books out there, I
think the best you can get now is plus one
and a half. So if you missed the Seahawks, you
(13:39):
didn't take it when we talked about it on Thursday,
Just be patient, Right, McCaffrey gets cleared easily, will bump
back couple points, This will go go right back to
two and a half. Still could see the fort Niners winning,
But the key number, Like we talked about, two and
a half, this feels like divisional game close and grueling
home Divisional dog Week one. Yeah, I can't avoid. I
(14:00):
know we already have one in there with Cleveland, but
this is another one. I just I love this matchup
with this number for this team, in this exact spot.
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(16:22):
For ja, Hi, what are we missing?
Speaker 3 (16:27):
So I'm gonna throw it out there and you give
me your opinion because we didn't talk much about this game.
And this is strictly based off contest playing line value.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
The Jaguars right now are up to four and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
I believe hard Rock has them at four in Jersey
here contest Chad minus two and a half. The Jaguars,
so that is very tempting where we don't love them.
We have a lot of questions, but we both agreed
much better offense, much better defense than the Panthers, and
you know, it's it's it's a lot to take in.
(16:58):
But at two and a half, we're two points of
value and week one that's that's a lot. So it's
a game that we didn't talk much about. But it's
minus two and a half right now. Jaguar's at home
and the line live is at minus four and a half,
So you don't have the SAYD thing now, let that
simmer just from that.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I don't want to I don't want to react one
way or the other. I've been I'm not gonna lie
to you. That game's been on my mind and I
feel like I don't want to be Panther blind, right,
and like that's been a failing of ours. We we
over indexed on the Panthers last year. It didn't work
(17:38):
out for us in the first half and then it
crushed for us in the second half. So I don't
want to think, Okay, Bryce Young he can fix everything
when he's got no receivers and their defenses and shambles.
I don't want to over index on thinking. Okay, Liam
Cohne is going to fix everything, because like you said
on Thursday, everyone said Trevor Lawrence was eight and three
until they got injured. In the last two years have
(17:59):
been terrible. We get it. Two and a half is sneaky,
hard to avoid, and we do like having a favorite
in there that is not just like a Baltimore minus one, right,
sort of a relatively chalky home favorite, which is what
the Jags are turning into with some line value.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Okay, I like it, that's what stuff because I know
pros who love like they've been betting the Jags at three.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
They've been bet in the Jags of minus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
They're even taking the minus four And that's why you're
seeing the four and a half pop now, just because
the pros, I think they're with Chad coming into the year.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
They just love the idea of the upgrade of that
the coach position.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
And Liam Cohenen, you know, now we're in a spot
here that me and Chad might be actually taking the
Jaguars in our contest because the line value is just
too good to pass up.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
And like Chad said, we need a favorite.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
That's our Achilles heel of people for near the show,
me and Chad only picked dogs, and we're sitting here
right now, we don't have a single favorite pick that
would be our first favorite pick. The only other game
that jumped out to me, a game we talked all week.
Just want to know your head's at Miami plus one
and a half, Chad, this is your baby. You love it.
Still you're getting cold feet. It's another spot that it's
(19:10):
super public, it's super chalky. But I told Chad, I
can squim my eye and I see it. I see
exactly what he's saying in this matchup, that it's Miami
two indoors against a really bad secondary. Everybody's healthy. This
is not a bang up Miami team. So it's tough.
It's tough. I see exactly what you're saying. But yeah,
it's I love it.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
I want it. I'm so glad you're listing it. I
actually had it on the list, and then I just
didn't want to bring it up again because I felt
like you were gonna laugh at me.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
So yes, please, So you want you want them over
the Jags?
Speaker 1 (19:48):
I almost want the Jags over the Seahawks. Like you
love the Seahawks, right, So, well, who do you like
better between the Jags and the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
In my in real world life, I am way more
heavily bet into the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
I never got the good number on the Jaguars. I
was late to the party.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I just I don't know what I want to do
with that game, and by the time it already crossed
the three, I had no money bet on it. So
if you're asking me which one I actually have real
sweat and money invested, it's Seahawks and I've been close.
But again for contest, I don't care about that, Like,
I'm just trying.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
To win a million.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Dollars with you, so like, yeah, I'm I'm cool either way.
But yeah, to me, if I'm going line value, yeah,
there's no doubt it's it's Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Yeah, I think it's the Jacks. So last one out
is going to be Seattle. And we'll review this later
tonight and see how miserable we are.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
So you want it to be our fight in Miami
Cleveland Ravens, and we're switching out Seattle put in the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Yes, and no Tennessee because of the plus seven and
a half and no Jets and Raiders because it's plus
two and a half not three. Okay, so that the
final Remember we had the Chargers, so we're already one
to know the final four for today. Cleveland plus five
(21:17):
and a half. Baltimore we like him at minus one.
It's plus one and a half in our contest. The
the Dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus
one plus one and a half at most books, no difference,
Jags minus two and a half. It's been bet up
to four and a half in a lot of books,
(21:37):
so minus four at hard Rock Bet. So those are
the picks as of right now. That's what we're going
to put in. That's what we will be rooting for today.
I'm feeling pretty good.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Simon.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, and people listening, put your five picks in the
YouTube comments. Let us see who you guys are taking
for your contest. And you know, obviously before our show
Sunday night, I'll post the exact games we did take
and prove to everyone, all the doubters that we actually
took these teams in the contest before we do our
Sunday night show and hopefully we do the show coming
(22:13):
in four and no brother. So yeah, I'm pretty excited
for today in the games ahead.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
All right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square
on YouTube tonight lot at seven point thirty to recap
all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or
listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe
to the channel. Also download us with Spotify, Apple Pods
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. Most importantly,
(22:40):
do all these things because feedback is always give and
it helps make the show easier fine for everyone. Until tonight,
Love you,
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock that we
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Nouman. I am
joined by my cost my bff, Mike Companion, mikem Fadre
professional better signon Hunter, Hello Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Chad, good morning to you, my good friend.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Good morning on the first Sunday of the NFL season
twenty twenty five. This is this We're calling this like
the stripped down in the room easdropping version of Sharper
Square because this will be doing on Sunday mornings going forward.
And as most listeners know, you and I have been
doing contests for years, whether or not people were able
(00:44):
to play along, and on that Sunday morning of the
NFL season, when we're putting in our final picks, you
and I would be having a conversation about what the
final five picks should be. And it was just us
basically arguing and debating with each other over the final
five picks for about ten or fifteen minutes. We decided,
(01:06):
like before Sunday kickoffs for this season, we're going to
let people into the room where it happens, so they
can get in real time what we're planning on doing
because things change, like we might want to make picks
that are on the wrong on the right side of
(01:26):
massive line moves over the past forty eight hours, injuries,
et cetera. Stuff changes since Thursday. So now you get
to hear all of that convo. Are you ready sign it?
Speaker 3 (01:37):
I am, And people should know we're going to do
our best not to make too many changes right now.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
People hear what our five are.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
It's the same five I put in Tuesday. So if
we make changes today, we can't help. But people, we're
just like, we're like all of you right the Sunday
Morning panic is real. And I looked at it my
lineup this morning. I woke up and it's like, how
do you not overthink every thing you do?
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Right?
Speaker 3 (02:00):
So, yeah, I'm I'm loving this this new routine we're
doing here. I think it's really gonna be funny show
unhinged we are by week seven eight, So yeah, right now,
CD very happy. Life is good. It's gonna be interesting
how this Sunday show keeps going throughout this season.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, we're gonna be We're gonna be quick, cause I
know people are trying to do a lot of things
on Sunday morning. So the idea isn't here deep. The
idea here isn't deep dives into every game. It's just
quick recap on where we stand and how honestly Saturday
and Sunday, I was like, I don't know, making breakfast
or something yesterday and this morning too when I woke up,
I had like a little tingle because I'm like, all right,
(02:39):
I get to check lines. I get to see how
things have changed. I get to see if some of
the numbers I want have moved in my direction, have
they moved away from me? And am I going to
be an idiot and just chase the number? Anyways? Because
I feel like this is my last best chance. I'm
trying to be really focusing, disciplined. So a couple of
things to think about. The contests Simon and I play,
they lock lines at different times, So we might talk
(03:02):
about games where lines of locked on Tuesday or Wednesday.
If we're playing that locked line from a Tuesday or Wednesday,
we're not going to recommend you played in a contest
that has lines locking.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Today.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
We'll give you some alternatives, So don't worry. We're not
going to leave you in the literature. Simon first game,
like Tennessee at Denver, your choice for brass Balls, you
own it. I will happily accept the w if it works,
and joyfully remind you of your mistakes later tonight. If
(03:33):
it doesn't, any regrets hearing anything to change your mind.
At this point, the hard rock bet line on this
game is eight. I don't know what our contest line is.
Is it seven and a half?
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Yeah? Contests seven and a half, So it's just like
the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
I love the Cowboys. This week our contest was six
and a half. We didn't play like if it was
eight and a half in our contest, we would have
played Cowboys.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
It's the same thing here with Tennessee.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
I like Tennessee, but why would I be betting so
much eight and a half? And now we're playing our
most important contest of the year at seven and a half,
so we can force it in if we want to.
But to me, there's better better numbers out there. And
if this number of lands on eight and we lose
this contest, I would lose my mind about that.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Cause again, people were sticklers. We might annoy you. We're
talking about how me and Chat always want the best
of the number. We get it right. The first two
games that spread did not matter.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
One game this week will matter on the spread, and
that of course will be the game Mean Chat put
our contest. So we are sticklers about it because we've
been burned by the half a point by.
Speaker 2 (04:37):
The point, you know, like Dallas, I really loved it.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
If it was seven and a half, I think I
could have forced us to take it. But at six
and a half, Mean Chat aren't going to take a
line that's off by two points just because we love it.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
So that's what people have to work us here.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
There's some games that we'll put in sometimes that even
if we don't love it, it's the values too insane
to pass on and we're just playing the long term
odds here. So yeah, the Tennessee game, I do love it, Chat,
I still love it. It's seven and a half for
our current test. I don't know if it's gonna be
one of our four.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Best picks five best picks. I already put Chargers in, brother,
So oh you did?
Speaker 1 (05:12):
I didn't even know that?
Speaker 2 (05:13):
No, no, all right, yeah, we're already up one nothing
brother three.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Look at us, all right, we got we had the Chargers.
What was the final line in the Chargers three and.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
A half or three and a half?
Speaker 1 (05:25):
All right, so we had chargers three and a half. Uh,
we're gonna have to get better at telegraphing this for
our listeners as we go through the SAT.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
On the show, auto play three and a half Chargers
contest line. So I get what you're saying, but yeah,
I just I don't want to put anything on social media.
If you want our if you want our contest plays,
this is where you're gonna have to find it.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
That's fair. That's fair, all right. Cincinnati and Cleveland still
love it. The hard rocked bet line is five and
a half is five, The contest line is five and
a half.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Book it locked in so like again, one of the
five players I put in on Tuesday Cleveland plus five
and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
So we'll keep it in there.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
Baltimore at Buffalo. The hard reck bet line is Baltimore
minus one. Full disclosure. I played at minus one. We
talked about it on the show. It was our rock
and a hard Place, Hard Rock Better of the Week,
Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where
the Linus flipped from Baltimore as an underdog to Baltimore
as a favorite. Those are scary, sticky spots to play.
(06:28):
But in the lot, in the contest lines we play,
it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it day.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Yeah, and people listening to the show, I'd bet up
to minus two. So if you're out there and you
can still get the minus one and a half, I'd
still take this on the Ravens live betting. And you know,
this is a game that both teams have injuries to
different positions, and obviously at the end of the day,
the biggest weakness to meet this matchup is the Bills secondary.
So I do think we have a huge advantage with
this Ravens passing offense. And we meet chat talking nauseum.
(07:00):
This is regular season, Lamar. This is exactly where we
want to back them, this exact spot. So, yeah, what
I've loved to have him as a dog. Yes, those
that would have been really nice to give it out
this morning as a dog once again, but the line
has flipped. I'm telling you I'd still been up to
minus two and me and Chad we're taking it plus
one and a half in the contest.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Detroit at Green Bay. Look, this is my Chad Loves Love.
When it was at two and a half, it's now
one and a half at hard Rock Bet it's one
and a half in the contest. I feel like we
got to pass on this one. The value has moved
away from us. I was sort of holding out hoping
(07:43):
it would get to three. Like I said, I'm trying
to be super thoughtful this year and not just AutoPlay
a bet because my spidy senses are saying this is
the right side or there's too much value, so I
don't want to force this in at all. We're not
getting the best. The number two and a half is
the right value. Two and a half has become a
(08:04):
key number. The market is recognized that maybe there was
some inflation on the packers. Not a play for me.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Okay, yeah, so this is another game that this is
one of the five I put in for us on Tuesday,
And my view of it was we got to put
one super chalky public play right now. That could be
the Ravens, so we don't have to force in the lines.
Like you said, we do love the lines, but yeah,
it's not the best number and It is by.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Far the biggest public dog of the week. I mean
it is everyone I talk to.
Speaker 3 (08:32):
It's all Detroit money for what meants I believe is
good reason. So okay, we don't have to force that
went in. There are some other lines we can put
it instead of that. Once, I'll switch it out.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
So right now, just to recap, we've got Chargers at
three and a half. We already covered that one. We're
putting in Cleveland five and a half. We're putting in
Baltimore plus one and a half. We like Baltimore up
to minus two, so if you're in a contest and
you're getting Baltimore minus one, have no fear play it.
We're passing on Detroit at plus one and a half
because we like the value at two and a half.
(09:02):
I'll own that. If it works out and we end
up losing a game that we put in because we
took Detroit out, I'm going to eat it, no problem.
All right, then, we got a bunch of games to
debate here, So we got three in right now, Pittsburgh
and New York Jets. This line has been sort of
(09:24):
hanging around three all weekend, but this morning it's been
moving in the Jets direction, it's at two and a half.
It's two and a half at hard rot Bet, it's
two and a half in the contest. I don't know, brother,
this one coming off the three scares me a little bit.
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Yeah, it's it's definitely a pros Verst jaws with the
pros are lining up on the.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Jets team and the public.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
They keep coming in heavy on this Pittsburgh side, And
for me looking at this matchup, a lot of things
I do love about the Jets, and I love this number.
But Chad's right, we love it at three. We were
hoping for three and a half. In contest. We're sitting
here Sunday morning, it's two and a half. You'll see
I didn't even have this one in on Tuesday. I
love this game, but there's just other games I love more.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
This week.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Las Vegas at New England, Las Vegas is two and
a half. Right now, it touched the three. It just
kissed the three, little tiny peck now is it two
and a half everywhere including hard Rock Bat. It's like
they're really making it hard on us right now. The
Jets are two and a half, the Raiders at two
(10:32):
and a half. I played both of these games at three.
I probably feel better putting the Raiders in at two
and a half than the Jets at two and a half.
Do you have an opinion on that?
Speaker 3 (10:44):
Yeah, once again, I love the Raiders are just other
games I love more.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
So, It's another game.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
I didn't put it in first on Tuesday, and my
view of it was a little bit the same thing. Right,
I didn't know that Christian Gonzalez was out yet, so
I could be tucked into it. Right, He's Christian gonzalezes out, which.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Is arguably their best player.
Speaker 3 (11:00):
You know the kid they drafted, you know, he's got
a tall task today. I think was Will Howard, I
forget the name of the Will Campbell has a big
ask today. He's a rookie, asked the draft they drafted,
asked to block Max Crosby.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Like to me, we have advantages.
Speaker 3 (11:16):
That we can attack and exploit here with this Raiders team,
and this is a good match for them in many ways.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
But at the end of the day, I'm trying to
stay true to it.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Chad, where it's I love the Raiders season long, and
I'm worried I'm being a little too blind to it.
Where I'm so heavily invested this game, and there's just
so much I like about this team compared to this
New England team. And yeah, I'm like, I already know
I'm gonna kick myself if I don't take this one
and they cover. But like I said, there's there's other
games I like more, and I just did not put
this one in first Tuesday. So if you want to
(11:45):
be the breaker and this is the game you want
to force in, I'm not going to stop you. But
I think there's other games We're gonna go through the
list here that you might you might like better.
Speaker 1 (11:53):
Well, the last one I want to bring up. I
know we got three in so far, we need two more.
San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle is plus two and a
half the contest plus one right now at most books,
including hard Rock BET. I feel like you're going to
tell me you love this game and that you have
done all the research and now with questions about McCaffrey
and like you talked about on Thursday, Kubeak's ability to
(12:17):
create a rush scheme that takes advantage of the outside
lanes where the Niners don't have the same personnel that
they used to and that could be a spot and
you like the Seahawks defense. I feel like you were
going to tell me we got to play the number
here because the value is so is so huge on Seattle.
Speaker 2 (12:35):
It isn't it.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
It really does come down to the Caffrey injury, right,
And I think I was very confident coming to this
week about the Seahawks team loving the matchup. And I
mean I could not walk through a sportsbook about a
pro come up to me and asking me what my
redos on this game and how much they love it
if they're ever thinking, and I'd agree with them. We we
just talked about, right, I love the Seahawks defense. I
think they're going to match up really well against this
forty nine ers team. And then the secondary of the
(12:58):
forty nine or Droid like you just talked about, they've
lost really key pieces and free agency to injury to
the years. Right now, they have a really young secondary.
They're gonna be tested by this run blocking scheme. Are
these corners gonna step up and tackle? Are there safety?
Is gonna play downhill and make the right place. So
a lot of questions to me about this Fortinitans defense
where Seattle I know exactly the defensive scheme I'm gonna
(13:19):
get and now if there's no McCaffrey and their main
focus would be shutting just down party. I mean, come on,
that is such a huge matchup and such a big
deal for the Seahawks defense. So yeah, you nailed it.
It's really about the number plus two and a half.
We love it. You know most books out there, I
think the best you can get now is plus one
and a half. So if you missed the Seahawks, you
(13:39):
didn't take it when we talked about it on Thursday,
Just be patient, Right, McCaffrey gets cleared easily, will bump
back couple points, This will go go right back to
two and a half. Still could see the fort Niners winning,
But the key number, Like we talked about, two and
a half, this feels like divisional game close and grueling
home Divisional dog Week one. Yeah, I can't avoid. I
(14:00):
know we already have one in there with Cleveland, but
this is another one. I just I love this matchup
with this number for this team, in this exact spot.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
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(16:22):
For ja, Hi, what are we missing?
Speaker 3 (16:27):
So I'm gonna throw it out there and you give
me your opinion because we didn't talk much about this game.
And this is strictly based off contest playing line value.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
The Jaguars right now are up to four and a half.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
I believe hard Rock has them at four in Jersey
here contest Chad minus two and a half. The Jaguars,
so that is very tempting where we don't love them.
We have a lot of questions, but we both agreed
much better offense, much better defense than the Panthers, and
you know, it's it's it's a lot to take in.
(16:58):
But at two and a half, we're two points of
value and week one that's that's a lot. So it's
a game that we didn't talk much about. But it's
minus two and a half right now. Jaguar's at home
and the line live is at minus four and a half,
So you don't have the SAYD thing now, let that
simmer just from that.
Speaker 1 (17:16):
I don't want to I don't want to react one
way or the other. I've been I'm not gonna lie
to you. That game's been on my mind and I
feel like I don't want to be Panther blind, right,
and like that's been a failing of ours. We we
over indexed on the Panthers last year. It didn't work
(17:38):
out for us in the first half and then it
crushed for us in the second half. So I don't
want to think, Okay, Bryce Young he can fix everything
when he's got no receivers and their defenses and shambles.
I don't want to over index on thinking. Okay, Liam
Cohne is going to fix everything, because like you said
on Thursday, everyone said Trevor Lawrence was eight and three
until they got injured. In the last two years have
(17:59):
been terrible. We get it. Two and a half is sneaky,
hard to avoid, and we do like having a favorite
in there that is not just like a Baltimore minus one, right,
sort of a relatively chalky home favorite, which is what
the Jags are turning into with some line value.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
Okay, I like it, that's what stuff because I know
pros who love like they've been betting the Jags at three.
Speaker 2 (18:24):
They've been bet in the Jags of minus three and
a half.
Speaker 3 (18:26):
They're even taking the minus four And that's why you're
seeing the four and a half pop now, just because
the pros, I think they're with Chad coming into the year.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
They just love the idea of the upgrade of that
the coach position.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
And Liam Cohenen, you know, now we're in a spot
here that me and Chad might be actually taking the
Jaguars in our contest because the line value is just
too good to pass up.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
And like Chad said, we need a favorite.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
That's our Achilles heel of people for near the show,
me and Chad only picked dogs, and we're sitting here
right now, we don't have a single favorite pick that
would be our first favorite pick. The only other game
that jumped out to me, a game we talked all week.
Just want to know your head's at Miami plus one
and a half, Chad, this is your baby. You love it.
Still you're getting cold feet. It's another spot that it's
(19:10):
super public, it's super chalky. But I told Chad, I
can squim my eye and I see it. I see
exactly what he's saying in this matchup, that it's Miami
two indoors against a really bad secondary. Everybody's healthy. This
is not a bang up Miami team. So it's tough.
It's tough. I see exactly what you're saying. But yeah,
it's I love it.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
I want it. I'm so glad you're listing it. I
actually had it on the list, and then I just
didn't want to bring it up again because I felt
like you were gonna laugh at me.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
So yes, please, So you want you want them over
the Jags?
Speaker 1 (19:48):
I almost want the Jags over the Seahawks. Like you
love the Seahawks, right, So, well, who do you like
better between the Jags and the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (19:58):
In my in real world life, I am way more
heavily bet into the Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
I never got the good number on the Jaguars. I
was late to the party.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
I just I don't know what I want to do
with that game, and by the time it already crossed
the three, I had no money bet on it. So
if you're asking me which one I actually have real
sweat and money invested, it's Seahawks and I've been close.
But again for contest, I don't care about that, Like,
I'm just trying.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
To win a million.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Dollars with you, so like, yeah, I'm I'm cool either way.
But yeah, to me, if I'm going line value, yeah,
there's no doubt it's it's Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
Yeah, I think it's the Jacks. So last one out
is going to be Seattle. And we'll review this later
tonight and see how miserable we are.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
So you want it to be our fight in Miami
Cleveland Ravens, and we're switching out Seattle put in the Jaguars.
Speaker 1 (20:54):
Yes, and no Tennessee because of the plus seven and
a half and no Jets and Raiders because it's plus
two and a half not three. Okay, so that the
final Remember we had the Chargers, so we're already one
to know the final four for today. Cleveland plus five
(21:17):
and a half. Baltimore we like him at minus one.
It's plus one and a half in our contest. The
the Dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus
one plus one and a half at most books, no difference,
Jags minus two and a half. It's been bet up
to four and a half in a lot of books,
(21:37):
so minus four at hard Rock Bet. So those are
the picks as of right now. That's what we're going
to put in. That's what we will be rooting for today.
I'm feeling pretty good.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Simon.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
Yeah, and people listening, put your five picks in the
YouTube comments. Let us see who you guys are taking
for your contest. And you know, obviously before our show
Sunday night, I'll post the exact games we did take
and prove to everyone, all the doubters that we actually
took these teams in the contest before we do our
Sunday night show and hopefully we do the show coming
(22:13):
in four and no brother. So yeah, I'm pretty excited
for today in the games ahead.
Speaker 1 (22:17):
All right, this has been Sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square
on YouTube tonight lot at seven point thirty to recap
all the misery and glory of the day. Watch or
listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe
to the channel. Also download us with Spotify, Apple Pods
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. Most importantly,
(22:40):
do all these things because feedback is always give and
it helps make the show easier fine for everyone. Until tonight,
Love you,
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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