Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, I am
joined as always bind my co homes might be at that.
My companion, Michael Padre professional better. Simon Hunt, Hello, so

(00:25):
am in Chad?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:28):
My brother? Listen? You sound so much better than you
did when I spoke to you yesterday at like five
in the afternoon, when it may have been the first
time you were sleeping in about forty eight hours. Great
first week, Great first week working with our friends at
the Volume who just crushed our launch across audio, video, social,

(00:53):
Great first week with listeners and watchers old and new. Simon,
we're generally a top ten sports podcast right now, which
is insane. Great first week betting when four and one
in our contest plays overall, winning week for both of
us across the board. I think with the one, I

(01:17):
got some criticism, I got some feedback, which is a
gift and we like it. So we do need to
do a better job of letting people know how to
find those picks. And being clear of what they are.
So here's how it's going to go. I know we
have some confusion this past week part of the kinks
that we're working out and sort of the crazy transition

(01:37):
onto the volume, but we will go. We will give
our final five picks in our Sunday morning show. That
is where you can get them. You're going to be
able to get that on YouTube. You're going to be
able to get that in your audio feeds. It's posted
in the morning with plenty of time to listen or

(01:58):
watch and get with those fun five picks are the contest.
We are playing in locks lines on Wednesdays, so we
are going to be playing off of those lines. Some confusion,
how do we get Baltimore plus one and a half
in the contest when the game closed minus one? The
contest we play in lines lock on Wednesday. If we

(02:21):
make it Thursday night selection, we will let people know
on the Thursday show. On the Sunday show that we
will let people know via social Sorry for the confusion,
All right, Simon, you won the Sharper Square segment forgot
I think you at Tennessee I ad Miami, which we
will get to. We won Brass balls, and Simon says,

(02:43):
we lost Chad Love's love, we lost rock in a
hard place, brutal beat with the Ravens survivor. We had
Danver who definitely made us earn it, don't forget. You
can get the show Sharper Square on YouTube. Go subscribe
like the video. While you're at it. You can also
subscribe to Sharper Square on Apple, Pop, Spotify, et cetera.
All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to
review the entire slate. Let's get after it. Thursday Night Football,

(03:08):
Washington at green Bay, Green Bay three and a half
point favorite. Look, Packers were pretty awesome against the Lions
last week. There are always two stories to this, right,
the Lions were not effective offensively. Part of that was
their own undoing. Part of that was the Packers pressure.
Micah Parsons only played half the snaps. I think he

(03:28):
played twenty nine. At the sixty five snaps, he had
a sack and three pressures, including one that led to
an interception. Simon, like, you nailed the Commander's analysis. Against
the Giants, Jade and Daniels would be able to neutralize
their pressure, but he was generally mediocre. So what are

(03:49):
your thoughts here right now? I don't have a strong
opinion on this. I'd probably lean Packers just because home
teams have a little bit of an advantage in the
short week on Thursday night historically.

Speaker 2 (03:59):
Yeah, that's how look at this one.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
It's like, I actually really like the Packers and it's
just because they're at home, short week for Washington, and
I think we're both in the same page. Our fear
with the Packers is are we not overvaluing them at
this point where it's first we are you know, they
had probably until Josh Allen's game, the biggest win in
my opinion of that Sunday where it's like that was impressive,

(04:22):
right because they've been playing in my opinion that great.
They were just that dominant though that even on the
day they didn't have their a game offensively or defensively,
they pretty much did whatever they wanted on both sides.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Of the ball.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
So yeah, this is really about the line hard Rock
right now is you know, in New Jersey it's minus three,
you know, minus one twenty on Green Bay. I'll take
that value because, like Chad said, it's it's the home team,
like we we love dogs here, but on Thursday night.
I do adjust to it. I do like taking the favorites,
and I do like taking that key numbers. So if

(04:54):
you're someone out there you're like, why I want to
take Washington three and a half? Yeah, there's shop around.
There's three and a halfs out there. Hard might go back
to three and a half. It's I get your position right.
It's Daniels as a dog greater than three. It's been
pretty profitable in his young career at that number. But
I just think this Green Bay team, if they can
just keep it rolling, they're just such a better team

(05:15):
altogether than Washington. Right Washington, it's it's really questionable about
their offensive line, as good as they were in some
aspects locked against the Giants, you know, they have some
young guys up front and some new faces on their
offensive line, and you did see Daniels moved out of
the pocket a lot, and you know, struggle moving the
ball downfield. So yeah, Chet, I'm right there with you.

(05:36):
It's if we're going Green Bay here, I'd take the three.
I don't think there's been our contest. I'm assuming this
will be three and a half in the contest.

Speaker 1 (05:43):
Here's what was interesting to me, about the Commanders because
I did a little bit of deep dive on this
game yesterday, Like they weren't awesome. Jaden Daniels wasn't great,
but they were just so much more talented and the
Giants were so incompetent. Jake and Daniels had multiple drives
in that game where he had second and very long

(06:06):
second and fifteen second and nineteen and within two plays
he was converting that into first downs and everything about
him nothing seems chaotic. It all seems doable, right. There's
just like some quarterbacks. We saw this a little bit
with Lamar before the chaos of the end, where it's

(06:29):
so scary to bet against them because they can convert
in the most challenging of situations. So I get why
people would want to lean into the Commanders. Right now,
I'm just leaning into the team at home that's a
field goal favorite.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
Yep, right there with you, all right.

Speaker 1 (06:48):
This is a really interesting game to me. Jackson Villa Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is a three point favorite at hard Rock, and
it had been trending towards that number. Opened at three
and a half and has been going to actually opened
it five and a half and have been going down
down down. Look, the Jags were goodish against a much

(07:12):
less talented team. You know, I think we put that
one in the category of they did what they were
supposed to do, and the Bengals straight up should have lost.
On Sunday, they had fewer than half as many yards
as the Browns. They averaged almost two yards less per play,

(07:32):
They had half as many first downs. Joe Burrow completed
fourteen passes for one hundred and thirteen yards, averaged three
point eight five yards per attempt. Even with multiple third
and fourth down drops by the Browns, the Bengals defense
still allowed the Browns to go eleven of nineteen on

(07:53):
third and fourth down conversions. Like, if you're a Browns fan,
this is truly sickening. Here's my problem. I think this
has been way over adjusted five and a half down
to three at this point. Like, this was five and
a half until Sunday at six pm, and it dropped
two points because of the way the Bengals played. Dude,

(08:19):
am I crazy for liking the Bengals here?

Speaker 2 (08:22):
You're not at the number?

Speaker 3 (08:24):
I agree, but there are three and a half's out there,
Like I honestly was coming in here. I was hoping
we would take the Jaguars, but like you said, the
number is moving too much, probably going to get to
two and a half by the way it's going right now,
because that's some real professional money now that's coming heavy
on this Jaguars side, and they were spot on last week,
so it's hard for me to sit here and doubt

(08:45):
them when they're taken a position on this team and
they nailed it last week in this matchup, and you're
really breaking it down, this isn't that great of a
match for the Bengals, right, There are guys on the
defensive line of the Jaguars that can give them major problems.

Speaker 2 (08:58):
Like that's as.

Speaker 3 (09:00):
Much of you want to bash Joe Burrow because yes,
seven yards for a guy who many say is top
five in the NFL at the quarter acquisition pretty embarrassing,
let's be honest, and does fall on him a little bit,
like you can't just make a quick read to get
a first down with one of the best receivers in
all football.

Speaker 2 (09:17):
It was a bad look.

Speaker 3 (09:18):
So you know your opinion on the Bengals, this is
probably a.

Speaker 2 (09:22):
Nice Bilow spot.

Speaker 3 (09:23):
So I get while you're like the minus three, I
just I go back and watch that film and it
just looks very scary where their defense is terrible.

Speaker 2 (09:32):
There are gaping holes running.

Speaker 3 (09:34):
And I don't think either of us think Stefanski's you know,
on the same level as Liam Cohne as an offensive mind.
So if his run game worked, I would think the
Jags have an advantage in this matchup to their run
game and the run blocking, skimming offense. As bad as
Trevor Lawrence looks at some points, if he has a
good run game, we've seen him really be good in
play action and be able to push.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
The ball downfield.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
So yeah, I get where you're coming from. The three
and a half, to me is the difference three and
a half. I'm there on the Jaguars. If me and
chat are stuck on a three or two and a
half in our contest, I'm not forcing the Jaguars in here.
It's just all about the number, because I think we're
both weary of this Jaguars team being overvalued of such
a dominant week one.

Speaker 1 (10:15):
Yeah, look, there's actually trends that back taking the Bengals here.
You know, when two good teams are playing each other
and one team is off a blowout win and one
team won by a very small number. Historically you want
to take the team that won by the very small number.

(10:35):
It's sort of flashing red for me, actually flashing green. Simon.
You know that I spent the summer working on like
various models and systems and stuff with my Harvard Stats
intern and this is one of the games that the
model is saying, bet, bet bet. I'm a little hesitant
because it's a little different when it's one game into

(10:58):
the season versus five games in the season. So I'm
not rushing.

Speaker 3 (11:01):
And the trend right the sean we talked about the
Burrow trend of one and nine straight up. I believe
in the first two weeks that's scary. Yeah, yeah, that's
a real thing.

Speaker 1 (11:11):
Yeah. So, like to me, I lean Bengals here just
because of the number, But I don't. I don't want
to play it aggressively. I've not made a bet on it.
I don't care about it in the contest. It just
was interesting to me.

Speaker 3 (11:24):
In the two and a half might be unboiyable once
it hits that number. Yeah, how do you not take
the Bengals at this point?

Speaker 1 (11:29):
You're gonna have to. It's interest. The Bengals offensive line
was terrible, and granted, the Browns defense was amazing, but
you've made a very good point, Like Josh Hainz Allen
is a fierce pass rusher and if even if nothing
else in the Jaguars defense is great, like he can
create pressure that will be disruptive to the Bengals and

(11:51):
make their offensive line really really challenged. So scary, it's
a scary game. It's a weird game to want to
dive into deep is a better um? Oh, dude, New
England at Miami. Miami is a one and a half
point favorite. Look. I said this on the Sunday Show.

(12:12):
This opened at one and a half, It got bit
up to two and a half. When it got up
to two and a half, there was one one and
a half still out there. So I grabbed the one
and a half and it started moving back in the
Dolphins direction because yesterday apparently everyone watched film and ran
their models and realized, you know what you've known for months.

(12:36):
The Dolphins team has no secondary, it has no offensive line.
If Tua can't get his first read, he's in total
shock mode. Mike McDaniels might be out of tricks. And oh,
by the way, it was reported this morning that Tyreek
Hill has been accused of domestic violence by his estranged wife.

(12:57):
I was a manager in executive for a long time
between ESPN and Action, and like, I know what it's
like when you are trying to run an organization and
everything is going badly because of the choices you made. Like,
when the things you can control are going badly, I

(13:21):
totally get it. But when the things that you can't
control are going badly. I'm just imagining Mike McDaniel's face
as soon as you heard this news, He's like, you
gotta be freaking kidding me. I don't. I bet the
Dolphins already. I'm not looking to invest anymore in it.

(13:41):
Please help me get out of this.

Speaker 3 (13:44):
You can't be helped the fact already bet. It just
shows you can't be helped it. So I get it
what you're doing. You're just you're betting on the team
that looked the worst in Week one, that got blown out,
and everyone's killing him, the national media. It could work
for you, but they're to me, there is just no
logical reason to back this team, where it just feels
like this isn't the spot, These aren't the spots where

(14:06):
this team turns around. I think when they get a
new head coach, whatever it is, maybe in week nine
to ten, they have some couple of redemption games because,
like we said, they do have talent in some spots,
like you know, a really good running back, they have
pretty good receivers. Tua as lost as he's looked, Me
and Chad have seen him look like a comparable quarterback.
You know, it's it's just so bad, so negative, and

(14:30):
you know, talking about being checked out on your head coach,
I think they've been checked out, and that's the fear
here is is he going to motivate them here? Because
in my mind for them, if they just eat this game,
I think they think they could. He could be out
after the game, right this is at home.

Speaker 2 (14:46):
They've already been embarrassed week one.

Speaker 3 (14:48):
There was a reason he was the favorite right to
be first head coach fired.

Speaker 2 (14:51):
So yeah, it's bad.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
And when I look across the field at Vrabel, I
feel like this is the perfect kind of spot for
him and his team where they're bad as well. I
think we talked a little bout that coming to the year,
where it's like I think they just got too much
hype based on their schedule. I was, and we talked
about it, like they were looked at as an easy
team to everyone else, while the Patriots are like, oh look,
how EASi our schedules. It's like, you guys are an

(15:14):
easy team. So you know they have weaknesses. If Christian
Zalas is in this game, if they have their defense
fully healthy, and in my mind, this is a much
better bounce back spot for Drake May than it was
playing that Raiders in that first game where they just
look like they were honestly out coached by Pete Carroll

(15:35):
and his group, like preparedness wise, offensively. I mean, you know,
Chad knows my left for Geno. That just all worked
so well for them. I think it's so negative here.
This feels like a type of spot Brabele gets his
guys right. That's why I just liked it. Again, Chad
was on the other episode side when this got the
two and a half.

Speaker 2 (15:51):
I immediately hit the.

Speaker 3 (15:52):
Patriots side again, same as you though, just dipping my
toes in because I don't know how involved that would
even want to be in this game because it's just
I hate, I hate, I just hate this Miami team
so much because, like you think, in your own mind,
this could be a spot where they bounce back. So
I'm not gonna make us force in the Patriots. But
I can clearly see we're both on opposite sides in
this game.

Speaker 1 (16:13):
Well, I'm not on any side in this game.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
Otherwise, I'm only I'm.

Speaker 1 (16:17):
Only I made a mistake, like we all make mistakes,
like I've made. What did I say this season? I
was not gonna.

Speaker 2 (16:24):
I get where you're coming from.

Speaker 3 (16:25):
I get where your your views on this one, because again,
it was so embarrassing, just.

Speaker 1 (16:29):
It was so embarrassing to look. There's a there's a
website that's great that's called Killer Sports, and I discovered
I don't know if you know it or not, Simon.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
No, but I love you get on the internet going
on weird sites.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
So killer Sports. I discovered it when I was hanging
with this guy's professional better who lives in Costa Rica,
and we were sitting on his couch all day and
watching games. And anytime we started talking sort of in
depth about a game or a team, it could be
called football, could be baseball, could be NFL, and we
were talking about how does this team do or how

(17:02):
does this pitcher do? He would just go to Killer
Sports and there's a search bar and you can type
in using real language, you know anything you're interested in
finding out about betting on teams, and has got this
database that goes back thirty six years.

Speaker 2 (17:17):
Oh it's amazing.

Speaker 1 (17:18):
So I just typed in like NFL teams after a
blowout of twenty points or more. I think I've been
I did since twenty fifteen because to me, as much
data as there is available on sort of betting, twenty
fifteen is when the extra point moved back right, and

(17:40):
so it changed how teams go for two, and it
changed what key numbers are a little bit. So I
use that as sort of the line of demarcation. Since
twenty fifteen, teams off a twenty point loss covered a
fifty four percent rate. So I have that in the
back of my head as I'm going through these matchups.
It's not making me like the Dolphins anymore. I think

(18:03):
that if we're talking about two teams off a loss
that need to make adjustments, Vrabel is going to have
his team more ready than Mike McDaniels. But that is
a note to consider the Miammy.

Speaker 2 (18:18):
Dolphins, got ya.

Speaker 1 (18:20):
That's it. That's it. San Francisco at New Orleans. Look
there's news here, right, Hard rock Bat has his line
at San Francisco minus four. It was at seven. And
obviously there's brock Purty injury news. His status this weekend
is uncertain because of toe and injury issues. George Kittle

(18:41):
is out because of the hamstring issue already, Like the
Niners are suffering the injury bug that they tend to
suffer every year, which is just a bummer because they're
always so talented and I feel badly for this franchise.
But look now, the numbers down to four. Pretty big,
pretty big move. All of it's a pass for me.

(19:05):
Like I'm not betting on Mac Jones is a favorite
on the road. I'm not betting on the Saints as
a short home dog. No thanks.

Speaker 3 (19:15):
Yeah, this number is moving, and it was a game
we're honestly probably gonna be on. Like I I liked
how the Saints played in that Corners game. I know
they didn't cover, but they had so many opportunities to
do it. Again, They're just a bad team, that's why
they didn't cover. It's just pretty simple. And I pretty
much been on brand with my foreign Nursty and I
think they are talented, but I think they have a

(19:36):
lot of groin pains, and unfortunately for them, they're not
gonna be able to go through those growing pains. Right
the injury bug is already hitting this team, which is
just brutal. And you know, this is a type of
game where I would have just hoped and prayed that
Pretty played because this would have been a huge, huge
pick in Survivor contest and this felt like a trap

(19:57):
game coming in and because again that forty nine Ers
went over the Seahawks. That's a huge emotional win on
the road against a divisional opponent, like this was a
bad spot for this forty nine Ers team. And now,
like Chad just said, hard Rock, Hearon Jersey, they're four
and a half. They're going down to four in most books,

(20:17):
so you know the number is moving towards the four
from the four and a half. That just shows where
the professional money is and it shows that I don't
think they think Party's gonna play, and I don't have
an opinion on it now because the numbers moved so
much that if Pretty doesn't play, it's Mac Jones.

Speaker 2 (20:34):
That's a big deal.

Speaker 3 (20:36):
Like what Pretty does so special in that team is
his legs, like what he can do with his legs.
So yeah, I think we can be patient here, Chad.
If we're lucky in this line locks a four and
a half like in contest like most of you, and
by kickoff this is down to two and a half.
Three that's gonna be a long hard thought, you know,
Spencer Rattler over Mac Jones in this matchup, yere cause

(20:57):
again on paper Kamar and Mccasjeffrey. McCaffrey obviously is better,
but in their systems pretty similar running backs right catching
out of the backfield, really versatile weapons like there's a
lot of counter them on the offense. And then defensively,
we saw that Saints they got a lot of veterans,
right like, they have a lot of guys that are
still there that have been there for a long time

(21:18):
that produce. So I don't know, I'm trying not to
get too into this now because the line could go
right back up to seven if pretty is cleared.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
So this is a game.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
Be patient if you want to grab the four and
a half on the Saints now, just because the professionals
are moving this to four. I can't hate you. I
can't fight you on. I'm gonna probably most likely go
to once we get off this call.

Speaker 1 (21:36):
You know, the the injury for Purty is a shoulder
and a toe.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
Are apparently the toe's worst.

Speaker 1 (21:43):
YE going to That's what I was just gonna say.
The reports are that the toe is significantly worse. And
to your point about him being a mobile quarterback who
can make plays and sort of keep plays alive with
his legs, that's huge. Like if even if it's a
hindrance for the next four or five, six, seven, whatever weeks,
that's something that's going to impact them. One thing, the

(22:06):
Niners had a terrible game rushing the ball against the Seahawks.
We're going to get into the Seahawks and the Steelers
in a minute, but they could get healthy, so to speak,
rushing against the Saints, who just gave up one hundred
and fifty yards on the ground to the Cardinals. Right
like the Niners in every way, Even if it's Mac

(22:27):
Jones and they can crowd the box, the Saints can,
the Niners will find a way to be more effective
running the ball. You think the Saints I do.

Speaker 2 (22:35):
I was like, I don't know. Again, I just have questions.
By the offensive line and just the forty nine ers.
I think people saw that.

Speaker 3 (22:43):
You know, if you rewatch that game, it was all
party that bailed them out, right, that was either going
to be a pick in the end zone or a touchdown,
a fifty to fifty ball at the end of the game.
And then a very very well timed Bosa pushing the
alignment into you know, get that set stripsack and then
the game on Darnold, which you know, sealed the game.

(23:04):
So it's like, there are two big time studs stepped
up at the end of the game, and now they
might not have Purty, a guy they desperately need. It's
just something to keep in mind how big of a
deal is to that team.

Speaker 1 (23:14):
Oh, it was totally fluky that they covered that game.
They have no right winning the game alone.

Speaker 3 (23:20):
That's why I love superstar players, right, they show up
in those moments.

Speaker 2 (23:24):
So that's why you win those big games.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
Cleveland at Baltimore line is ten and a half. Look,
this was at twelve and a half on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (23:35):
Yeah, it's moving, it's moving.

Speaker 1 (23:37):
It went down to eleven and a half and then
yesterday went back up to twelve and a half and
then all of a sudden, just this morning, there's been
a rush on the Browns and it's moved back down
to ten and a half. I know the side that
we want to play here as the Browns, Right. I

(23:58):
don't love it as much as I thought I would.

Speaker 2 (24:01):
No, I love it.

Speaker 3 (24:02):
I love this match of the Browns, but obviously it's
all about the number. If we can get nine and
a half, I'm happy to flip to the Ravens.

Speaker 1 (24:08):
Right.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
I have this right at ten, so still a ten
and a half.

Speaker 3 (24:12):
I do like Cleveland, but I'm I'm in the same
boat of Like, if the public absolutely was hammering the
Ravens and this I got up to thirteen thirteen and
a half, would it loved?

Speaker 1 (24:22):
It?

Speaker 2 (24:22):
Would have been?

Speaker 3 (24:23):
Simon says most likely, Like I don't care taking them
back to back weeks because it's like we're just playing
the value here.

Speaker 2 (24:29):
So the number early line.

Speaker 3 (24:31):
Movement to me is right, it should have been Cleveland
money early here like that.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
The Ravens are really talented, they're really good. It's a
divisional game.

Speaker 3 (24:40):
It's it's a divisional game and a spot where you know,
we're probably getting value on Cleveland because they should have won,
Like they should have won.

Speaker 2 (24:48):
This number probably should be under ten.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
And yeah, you know, if they went by a touchdown
or a field whatever would have been, it would have
been a big movement to this line because I think
the public would have been much more respectful this Cleveland team.
But like we talked about, the public is getting smart
people on the est pan other shows.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
You know, it's not all brain rots.

Speaker 3 (25:07):
Some in further giving out as good and the inn
further giving out is how dominant that Brown's defense was
against the Bengals, Which is that.

Speaker 2 (25:15):
A Bengals thing. We're about to find out this week.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
Was that a Bengals problem or was that Cleveland's defense
being that good? So, you know, at this number, I
like it. This is this is a better defense than
the Bills, that's for damn sure. So they abtously don't
have the MVP of Josh Allen. That's why we're getting
ten and a half. So not going to force it
in like we like Cleveland's side. If it gets under ten,

(25:37):
we can't have a conversation about the Ravens because at
that point the disrespect is too far. And this is
still you know, the number one, number two seed in
the AFC.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
Yeah, look, you just took the words out of my mouth.
The Bills pass rush totally red havoc on the Ravens
on Sunday Night. And the Browns are better at every
level than the Bills. Defensively, they're better. Yeah, their secondary
is so much better. Their pass rush is so much better.

(26:06):
Their defense. You know, it's hard to quantify all of
the ways in which their defense was so dominant, situationally
and overall against the Bengals, Like they made Joe Burrow
look like he was a rookie playing in his first game.
They were just freaking brilliant.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
Literally were he joked, But it was literally almost impossible
to lose that game, and they did lose it.

Speaker 2 (26:33):
It's incredible.

Speaker 1 (26:34):
That's just because it's Cleveland.

Speaker 3 (26:35):
Yeah, But mathematical, like you've seen all the numbers where
it's like, yeah, two and three hundred all these teams,
what the Bengals were in that exact spot now, like
they're the third team ever to win getting seven yards
in the second half.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
I'm going to give you a stat though, ready are
you ready?

Speaker 2 (26:52):
Ready?

Speaker 1 (26:54):
Since twenty fifteen, double digit road dogs in the division
only cover forty three percent of the time.

Speaker 3 (27:04):
Well, well, yeah, not the best spot, but again, still
still love it a little bit. But like we said,
I'm hoping, honestly, this goes the Ravens nine.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
And a half. I that's what I would prefer.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
That would that would be, that would be the spot
to back.

Speaker 1 (27:17):
I'd rather, honestly, I'd rather bet the Ravens in single
digits at this point than bet the Browns at double
digit dogs.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
But that that Ravens defense. They came out slow last year.
Who knows what they will be this year. But it's
it's hanging on me, Chad, this exact spot last year
Raiders ten point dogs.

Speaker 1 (27:38):
Yeah, mid chew, oh, I remember.

Speaker 2 (27:40):
So it's it's a weird thing with this team.

Speaker 3 (27:43):
I don't know if it's it's I guess it can
be put on horrorball, right. I think at the end
of the day, this all has to be put on horrible.
He's got arguably the best running back, best quarterback tandem ever,
So it's just weird. They keep losing these games where
they have huge leads, and yep, we expect to bounce
back spot here.

Speaker 2 (28:02):
So I think we're in line here. If it's nine
and a half, well of a real decision.

Speaker 1 (28:05):
To make Yeah, yeah, all right, let's do a quick
message from our friends at hard Rock. We are crazy
excited to announce our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet.
I don't know if you know this. I've got a
very long history of staying at hard Rock hotels and casinos,

(28:26):
including one football season practically living there. Literally They've always
been to me, the best combination of vibe and fun.
Now you can use the top rated hard Rock Bet
sportsbook to place your bets all NFL season and beyond.
Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in
the state of Florida, and it's also available in Arizona, Ohio,

(28:50):
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado, with more
states launching all the time. You can also play on
hard Rock Bets online casino if you were in New Jersey, Simon,
I know you want to check that out. From here
on out, you'll start to see us US hard Rock.
That lines when we're talking about the games and everyone knows.

(29:10):
Simon and I we have loved getting out and doing
live shows. Now we can actually do them from hard
Rock property. Simon, do we see a sharp or square
live show from AC just down the road for you
in our future as we gear up for NFL season.
Sign up for hard Rock Bet. Make a five dollars bet.

(29:32):
We'll get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
If you win. Head over to hard Rock Bet, sign
up and make your first deposit today. These are payable
in bonus bets, not a cash offer. Offered by the
Seminal Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminal hard

(29:53):
Rock Digital ELC in all other states. Must be twenty
one and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, of Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight to eight Admit it in Indiana. If you or

(30:13):
someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help,
called one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem
called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee.
For JAA, all right, we're looking at the giants in Dallas.
Dallas is a five and a half point favorite. This

(30:34):
number has been moving in the direction of the Giants.
A little surprised, to be honest, that there would be
any enthusiasm for the Giants at all after this past week.
They seem like they could compete with the Dolphins for
worst record in the NFL because I don't know what

(30:56):
they're going to do on offense. They already look like
they are falling apart on the sidelines. Russell Wilson was
just dreadful, right, I was actually pretty encouraged by the
Cowboys on Thursday night. Like you could see in these games,
which for these two teams over the weekend, how a
team with a mediocre roster can be better and competitive

(31:19):
with a very good quarterback, and how a bad quarterback
can just bring that whole team down. And you called
it in the preseason about how good Dak is. It
just changes everything for a for a team when that
quarterback can make plays. And so to me, I like,

(31:42):
you know, this line actually exploited on Sunday, and there's
been some buyback probably lean Dallas.

Speaker 3 (31:52):
Here, Yeah, love Dallas. And you know that that week
one I got so many message about why I bet
so heavy Week one, and we've talked about it, Right,
It's just if I can bet something for months at
a time, it's easy for me to get a lot
of money down. And the Cowboys that was a rare opportunity.
We talked that was seven opened at seven, and I

(32:14):
kept saying, it's just this is not a Dak line,
Like people just forget the talent of Dak because he
was hurt and man that I always have egg on
my face because you don't ever expect Parsons trade. And
that was the scariest part of that line, where it's like,
you know, I wanted to see what their defense was
gonna be like obviously without Parsons because to me, we

(32:35):
saw it against Egles like there was no pass rush
without them, like totally neutralized. He is by far the
best player in that defense. How would they why would
they get rid of this guy? Like you told you
saw it in that Eagles game. It is a big deal, right,
And you can say, well, they came out, they made
adjustments in the defense, played way better, especially against the run,
which was that was the biggest deal.

Speaker 2 (32:54):
Right.

Speaker 3 (32:54):
They wanted to prove against the run. You saw that,
So you know hesitation about this Cowboys team, that would
be it, right, We don't really still know what they are.
But to me, it's again being confident in why I'm
betting this. I have this number at seven. So this
is really about Dak. Dak beats the shit out of
bad teams, especially in his own division. This Giants team

(33:15):
is a bad team, and you know, you saw people
trying to force their doubt like their Giants love this
offseason and you know, talk about how good their D
line is. There are so many other aspects to a
team besides the D line. That's why I thought their
draft pick was dumb at Dube Card is an incredible talent.

Speaker 2 (33:32):
I get.

Speaker 3 (33:32):
You have to take them. Your offensive line is so
bad it is three four years away from being fixed.
If you're the Giants and you knew you were taking
Dart late in the first like to me, you trade
down at least from that pick and you get offensive
lineman because we've seen that's the problem around this Giants team.

(33:52):
Russell Wilson had no time. I mean, Neighbors is losing
his mind. That offense is putrid. I mean, this might
have to be a survivor pick because when else are
we going to use Dallas in this exact spot right right,
Dallas at home coming off a game they should have won.
You know, CD gifted that win to that Eagles team
that they lost that game thirty different ways. That Eagles team,

(34:13):
like that was such a Dallas win, you know, between
the fumble, the untimely fumbled and the drops by CD,
I can't imagine what they're practice like this week. And
just Dak knows they cannot be going. Oh and to
let alone, let this be a close game. I see
them rolling. I love this number. It's gonna be probably
the most public line I liked this week, right, the
minus five and a half, minus six, so I liked

(34:36):
the pros are buying back on the Giants. They can't
quit them. They're like you with Miami. They just can't
quit it. And I see what they see. But man,
this just feels like a bad spot and a bad
match for the Giants team, which we talked about.

Speaker 2 (34:49):
Their schedule is just so brutal. There's no week off.

Speaker 3 (34:52):
Every week iss is brutal, brutal, brutal, and this is
another bad week. So yeah, I'm not there on this
Giants team seven and a half. If it gets yes,
I'll like Giants, but under seven, this is I think
we're in sync.

Speaker 2 (35:04):
This is totally a Dallas line and a good number.

Speaker 1 (35:06):
It's so weird how so many wise guys were playing
the Giants against the Commander. You were all over the Commanders, yea,
and everybody was piling into the Giants. This was the stat,
the most telling stat to me out of that game.
The Giants had eleven scoring opportunities with plays inside the

(35:31):
ten yard line for them from the three yard line.
They failed on all eleven. Like they're falling. They were
falling apart before our eyes. That any other game the
Commanders were, any other the Commanders play any of their
team and that's a close game, like they were. They

(35:53):
were keeping them in the game, and the Giants could
not figure out a way to capitalize on anything. They
just looked looked completely lost. It's like the Hall of
Fame legacy for Russell Wilson, you know, when he was
at peak leaving Seattle. Every year just gets worse and
worse and worse for Russell Wilson. We owe people, as

(36:17):
Simon says, we owe people of Chad Loves Love. This
feels a little too square for me to go Chad
Love's Love. But the way you talk about it I'm tempted,
and it's sort of in the range of what I
like to bet teams like that three to nine, So
it's interesting.

Speaker 3 (36:36):
Very definitely tempted with the five and a half because that,
to me is a really good number right now on
this cowboy side.

Speaker 1 (36:41):
Yeah, I got to consider that. Listen, Detroit is now
a five and a half point favorite hard rock bet
over the Chicago Bears. You mentioned this on Sunday night,
and then yesterday I texted you. I called you him like,
were you really leaning Detroit four and a half? And
You're like, I can't even remember what I said because
I was up for thirty six straight hours until the

(37:03):
Sunday show. But you did say let's get the four
and a half for Detroit now, because just right they did.
Here's the problem. I'm a little skeptical about the Lions,
Like digging into that game, I thought in the first
half they had opportunities to sort of make this game
close and not have it be so lopsided for the

(37:23):
Packers in terms of the score. But I'm worried about
their offensive line. Like Frank Ragnow the center retired, Kevin Zeitler,
the guard left in free agency. They had a couple
of rookies in there who just looked like rookies, and
will they get everything fixed over the course of you know,
five days of practice. So this running game can be

(37:47):
sort of the bulwark that it had been that sets
everything up for Jared Goff. I would I would lean
into the Lions because I think clearly their coaching staff
is better than the Bears. But I don't love this
game right now.

Speaker 3 (38:08):
Yeah, I hope Bears fans hear this. Don't don't be
so doom and glue. I know that's the whole Chicago personality.
It's just, oh, we lost Game one, the world's over,
We're the worst team ever, burned it all down. Caleb's
a bus we showed Uh, I get it. It's that's
very Chicago. But I talked about this is you have
to treat this is Caleb's rookie year.

Speaker 2 (38:27):
Last year was a total waste.

Speaker 3 (38:30):
You know this this offense you watch that game, Chad,
you saw it. It's it's when it works, it looks
really on and it's you know, it's a great system.

Speaker 2 (38:40):
So if Caleb's not the guy, he will be gone.

Speaker 3 (38:44):
But at least you can see that you you most
likely have a head coach who he needs to.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
Go through his own growing pains as well.

Speaker 3 (38:49):
He's going to do stupid stuff, make stupid calls, and
that's just the way it does. I mean, in that game,
they had that pick six in their next five possessions,
I could be wrong, but almost positive because I watched
that game, the next five possessions were either a punt
or a missed field goal. So again they're up seventeen
six and they have all these punts, they have a

(39:10):
miss field goal, and then in the fourth quarter of
the Vikings came back. So you know, at the end
of the day, it's on Caleb chat and that's my
fear here is I We had seth Wickershammel and I
pressed him about the mental makeup of this kid, because
to me, in life, you want adversity, you want someone

(39:30):
that's failed a lot and dealt with, you know, challenges,
and he just seemed like he was so talented. He
just floated through his whole life. And you know, whether
it was in high school Oklahoma USC he was always
great until his last year there. And we're seeing with
that Bears game like there was he had opened guys
he missed and That's that's my fear with Caleb here

(39:52):
where you know, that number seems so big to me
with the Lions.

Speaker 2 (39:55):
Because it's still the Lions, that they could have.

Speaker 3 (39:59):
Just one bad game and they're legit they'll be fine
this year, or like we keep thinking that offensive line
that's a major issue.

Speaker 2 (40:06):
Their offense line.

Speaker 3 (40:07):
Is a big problem, and they didn't make adjustments like
Green Bay outschemed them and made better adjustments even in
the second half. I mean, they got a late touchdown
with what like two minutes left the lines. But like
Chad's saying here, there's a lot to be doubtful of
this Lions team. So if anything, I'll just not not
bet this one. But I think and in the day,

(40:28):
if it's under six like it is right now, that's
that's that's good value towards this Lions team that you know,
if they do click, they could roll this Bears team
forty to seventeen.

Speaker 2 (40:38):
Like that would not be that shocking. Where couldn't.

Speaker 3 (40:42):
I mean, there's a couple of really bad losses Week
one that's up there for the worst loss of the week.
You're at home prime time, seventeen six vibes could not
be higher and just total total train wreck. And you know,
like Chad's doing a little bit of soul searching.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
JJ. You can see it right, you see the top ten.

Speaker 1 (41:03):
The moxie, a lot of moxie.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
The painful part about it, so much moxie.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
I I yesterday about five o'clock, five thirty, my buddy
Matt called me. Everyone who's been listening to the show
for years knows Matt. And he says to me, I
say hello. He doesn't even say hello. He just starts
ranting about how much the Bears suck. And it's five thirty.

(41:32):
The game is three hours away. I'm like, what are
you talking about? He goes, I'm just getting it out
of the way because I know this is how I'm
going to feel, and this is what I'm going to
be saying. We were texting there in the game. He
couldn't have been more right. Like everything he said it was.

Speaker 2 (41:53):
I don't know you.

Speaker 3 (41:53):
I was like, all right, Chad was right about his
Bears being a home divisional dog.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
That was right.

Speaker 1 (41:58):
But I was right for about we never seventy five
percent of the game.

Speaker 3 (42:04):
I've never seen again this rather, JJ, mystique is that
all time, I've never seen a guy in his first
game throw a pick six and then the fourth quarter
score three touchdowns, throw in two rushing for one.

Speaker 2 (42:16):
Just again Vikings Baller.

Speaker 3 (42:19):
Yeah, you might come crashing and burning, but I would
be very excited because I could not believe what I
was witnessing.

Speaker 1 (42:25):
Where this guy there were a few things totally lost.
There were a few things. He looked totally lost and
out of his depth for three quarters. But then Kevin O'Connell,
who we love like. I think he's a top five
coach easily in the NFL what he has done year
after year with Kirk Cousins, then Sam Darnold, now JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 2 (42:44):
He's got to win something for me. But I get
where you're coming from.

Speaker 1 (42:46):
His ability to turn nothing into something in the middle
of a game. He's the reason they won that game.
He found what would make JJ McCarthy comfortable, put him
in positions to succeed, and the guy throwing lasers at
the end of the game to guys who had to
receivers who had been schemed open, and so just really impressive.

(43:09):
I actually on Twitter this morning and threads I asked
followers to give me a redraft of the twenty twenty
four QB class the six quarterbacks, I said, Jade and
Daniels number one, almost universally. Bo Nicks was number two,

(43:29):
and I'm like, that's fucking stupid, and then JJ. It
was like JJ and Pennox were three and four and
most of it was then Drake May five and Kid
and Cabe Williams six. That's insane, isn't that great? If
you have ideas on this, put in the YouTube chat.
I'm going to respond when I jump in. Give me
your redrafted top six from twenty twenty four. All right,

(43:52):
interesting game coming up. Jets at Buffalo Buffalo six and
a half at hard rock beat right now, big move
on this one. This was at eight and a half.
We both lean Jets, and this was before the Bills
went against the Ravens. Then it moved down considerably at
six and a half. I'd go with the Bills here,

(44:13):
am I sharper? Am I square on that one?

Speaker 2 (44:15):
Definitely square.

Speaker 3 (44:18):
My view of it is just your read of the
line might have moved too much, couldn't be true. But
at the same time, I think this is the proper
amount of movement for how bad and banged up and
injured that Bill's secondary and defense is like you see
how important having a safety who can come downfield and
tackles like that is everything in football. If you can't

(44:41):
stop the run with your safety, you will give up huge,
huge plays. And what I took from that Jets team
is they're going to scheme up big place Like Briest
Hall is good, Like he's what a year and a
half removed now from that knee injury, and he looked
like he had that step back which was missing, and
that's why people are saying he was a guy that
could be getting traded. You know, this whole preseason everything

(45:03):
like that, and like you know, Justin Field's going back
watching that game.

Speaker 2 (45:09):
He had three or four throws that could have.

Speaker 3 (45:11):
Been picked sixes, like insanely tight windows, but he made
the throws.

Speaker 2 (45:17):
And we've seen it.

Speaker 3 (45:17):
When Fields is on, he looks like a top five,
top ten quarterback. It's incredible because he's so athletic, his
delivery is so smooth, and his deep ball looks amazing.

Speaker 2 (45:26):
So you know, I want to be there on the Bills.

Speaker 3 (45:30):
I agree with Chad like it feels like I should
be more tempted on this Bills team, but on the
road against the Jets. You know, I just could see
the Jets always keeping right behind him, like keeping the
score close. So another game I won't force because the
numbers moved too much. Where at seven and a half
I would have been very more ironics have been very
confident in this Jets team. But we've seen it with

(45:52):
Josh Dowen against bad teams, usually he beats them up.
Wouldn't be shocked if he's got, you know, a double
digit lead. And Justin Fields just has his off day,
which is what he does. He's an up and down quarterback.
So the matchup wise though, it's like Fields he could
rush for one hundred. Like we literally just saw how
bad this team is against the read option. They just

(46:14):
you're trying to have Bosa on the edge stop a read.

Speaker 2 (46:18):
Option, not the good bos the older brother. So it's
it's a tough spot for this Bills team.

Speaker 3 (46:24):
And yeah, I think your read on the value might
be on the number movie too much is correct. I'm
just you know, I think Thish probably should be closer
to five. It's still six.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (46:37):
I am tempting on this Pills team, but it's like, man,
I just I can't get over how bad their defense is.
Where it's like even it's just too much, it's too
big of a number to me for that defense, where
that could be major wrong because Josh Allen is just
that good. Where if he's just tearing up this Jets
defense that just got torn up by Rogers, obviously that

(46:58):
favors Josh Allen this spot.

Speaker 1 (47:01):
I don't think Justin Fields is Lamar Jackson, and so.

Speaker 2 (47:08):
He's pretty close. I'm gonna say that right.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
Now, right, but he's not the passer that he is.
And so I do think that Lamar Jackson's threat as
a passer changes how you play defensively, and the Bills
will scheme to really just make sure Justin Fields can't
be beating them as a runner and only has the
option to pass.

Speaker 2 (47:28):
What do you think Pittsburgh did.

Speaker 3 (47:30):
Pittsburgh sold out to stop him as a runner, and
he burned him with his legs and the running back Burnham. Again,
Pittsburgh is the was the number one highest paid defense.
They got the guys, and they had a banged up secondary,
and you just saw what Fields did to a banged
up secondary.

Speaker 2 (47:46):
That's that's what I'm saying. There's just so many similarities here.

Speaker 3 (47:50):
I get your hesitation with fields, but man, this Bill's
defense has so many injuries it's brutal.

Speaker 1 (47:57):
I was thinking about adopting new teams in the just
so have something to root for. I settled on the
Ravens over the Bills because the Bills, I felt like,
would just break my heart in the same way as
the Bears would. I think the Ravens are going to
break my hearts in different ways, so I might just
adopt the Ravens in the AFC. Here, the value that

(48:20):
we could have had eight and a half is just
not going to be there, and it's setting up to
be a game where there's so much emotion for the
Jets right now. Classic fade the Jets fade the hype.

Speaker 2 (48:35):
But that's the books.

Speaker 3 (48:36):
This is going to be the books one of the
Book's biggest needs because you can tease the Bills now
to a pick like That's why that line.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
Movement, to me, it was such a huge deal.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
The fact that they've crossed into the six and a
half number is it's just going to be heavy, heavy,
heavy Bills money, and they knew what they were doing,
so that's really respected money that came on the Jets
and moved this number. But like you said, Chad, you're
reading it could be right that it could have moved
too much at this point. But this is definitely a
game we're gonna be talking about again on Thursday.

Speaker 2 (49:05):
I have no doubt this would be a big wise
guy call.

Speaker 1 (49:08):
All right, Look, we still owe people of Chad Love's love.
We still owe people of Simon says, like last week
with the Browns, I wonder if we're gonna have a
little debate over the over who's going to get to
claim ownership on this next game. Seattle at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh
is a three point favorite at Hard Rock Bat and

(49:29):
really across the board, you really like Seattle in week one,
and then I had some critiques about Seattle, which you
scoffed at on Sunday night, and then I actually did
a lot of rewatching of this game, and this line
has actually moved up from two and a half to
three since Sunday. There are lots of reasons to fade

(49:52):
Mike Tomlin as a favorite, and we did it against
the Jets this past weekend. He's not profitable as a
favorite at home either, as he is not on the
road Here's what's tickling me about this game. Seattle's defense
was really excellent against the Niners opening TD drive. They

(50:16):
basically kept the Niners scoreless the rest of the game
until the final drive. The pressure on Purty was relentless.
They limited them to just over three yards per carry.
They were opportunistic. You unpacked that Steelers game and Aaron
Rodgers like. One of his TD passes was a shovel pass,

(50:38):
another was on a short field. He was sacked four times.
His QBR was middle of the pack. He didn't even
attempt to throw more than twenty yards downfield. The defense
for the Steelers, they could not stop the rush more
than one hundred and eighty yards rushing. A lot of
that was Breese Hall, some of that was justin fields.
I'm kind of surprised it moved in the Steelers direction.

(51:00):
I liked Seattle more than I thought it would. Chad
loves love he loves the Seattle Seahawks. Plus three.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
But that's the shacker of the day. This is your
favorite bet. Now, I can't.

Speaker 1 (51:17):
Really find one that I love, love love.

Speaker 3 (51:20):
Bringing back bullying America. Yeah, that's I'm shocked. I like
this number two. I have no fear that it's up
to three. If anything, I am hoping more public money
comes up and the books have to shift it again
to three and a half because right now, like I'm looking,
it's the splits right now, it's all Pittsburgh money, like heavy,

(51:41):
heavy Pittsburgh money right now. So that's what I said.
I hope I said on Sunday night. This is the
exact is why you want to be and you just
want to be patient. Let the masses come and bed
it up. And yeah, this the Seahawks team. Don't know
if they'll win it because that like the Sam Darnold
part of it. But I think you see what I
say about them keeping these type of games close. It's

(52:02):
like these teams that they're pretty much even with, which
is what they were the forty nine ers. They will
keep games close in ugly games, and their defense can
really pull teams down into the mud. And like that's
what I really like about that coach and the way
he coached up this defense of just never beend and break,
like they're just so you know, like there's multiple times

(52:24):
in that fort nine Ers game where I could see
that they were just worn down, right because it was
just never any relentless of Robinson and McCaffrey that combo
for the fort nine ers run game, and they just
never broke, like even at the end with that pretty touchdown,
like we said, it was a fifty to fifty ball
like it could have gone either way. So in this matchup,
like we talked about, just like the Seahawks, and my

(52:46):
hesitation will just be diving more into the whole splits
of West Coast team coming east, playing in this exact
spot after such a brutal, tough divisional game, what that
means for them. And on the flip side, Pittsburgh, I
want to see their injury report because if they are
missing all these guys again from their secondary, this is
the exact type of matchup you want for the Seahawks

(53:07):
and that Kubiak run blocking scheme where they make one
or two guys miss if the linebacker the lineman missed
their assignment, there's going to be gaping holes like we
saw for that Jets team against this Pittsburgh team. So
another game chat where I like run the same page
of plus three. It's a great number. We're praying this
gets a three and a half for the contest. That
would be great value on the Seahawks line.

Speaker 1 (53:28):
When you say bring back bullying, Are you mad that
I stole it from you?

Speaker 3 (53:33):
No, you just I feel like you were sensitive to me,
Like do you react like I was being me throhe
I was just trying to get you on the same
page of like, don't don't take Pittsburgh here back this
sex team. They're not as bad as that. You know,
game looked offensively like I agreed with you that Darnold
did struggle in some aspects, but that running game, you know,
there there's a lot to like I think going forward

(53:54):
for what that Seahawks is trying to set up with
their running style.

Speaker 1 (53:58):
I'm nothing if not open minded. Okay, you know, I'm
willing to see all the angles. I did my research yesterday.
I dug in, I watched some of the game. I
was not I was just not impressed with the Steelers
at all against the Jets. It's partially Colorado. Why I'm

(54:19):
not why I'm less impressed with their win than I
think other people with their with their loss than other
people are. We're is coloring then my feeling about the Bills.
But I just thought Seattle like they dominated that game.
And you said at the beginning of the show. Brock
Purty won that game with a fifty to fifty ball

(54:40):
and then there was a fluky you know, offensive lineman
who runs into Sam Darnold's hand and he fumbles when
they could potentially win the game.

Speaker 3 (54:48):
So and this line would be two if they want,
this line would be two one and a half. So,
like we say the time, you take the value, especially
the fact that this is you know, besides the Cowboys,
there's a couple of other games. So this is up there
for the biggest public sid right now in Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (55:03):
Yep, Denver, Indie Indie plus two line has been move
in from three to two and a half to two.
Not a pros pro joe split exactly, but definitely see
the money starting to come in and tilt towards Indianapolis.

(55:27):
Are you still seeing value on this? On Sunday night
you were liking the Colts. Where do you stand now?

Speaker 2 (55:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (55:34):
And another spot like I loved it, couldn't believe it
opened at three, took the value Sunday betted again yesterday.
Now like you just said, it's down to two, I'd
still take that. Like I talk all the time, I
key number two is it's going to get the one
and a half. I'm assuming like this this will be
pros rus Jows. I think the public will come in
on this Denver team eventually.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
But simon, if the Twitter poll is any indication, people
are still full believers in.

Speaker 3 (56:01):
Bow Knicks, right, So I just think they'll throw out
last week's game and you know they'll come in here
and just think that it's all good. And I just think,
you know, a whole off season, you saw tennessee what
they did to bow Knicks to give them problems. That's
what it's like, right, You get a full year playing teams,

(56:21):
have a whole off season to adjust to it, and
they're gonna give them problems. So looking at this matchup,
like I said, Colts, eventually we'll jump off this train.
I just I'm playing the number here. So like at
plus two at hard Rock, that's that's great value. In
my opinion, I go grab that right now. Because you know,
I've talked to a couple other guys who are in
the same mindset of me, and they have money like

(56:43):
I do. They'll be betting this cold side. They're gonna
keep moving this number down. So I think we jump
back on here. Unfortunately for our contest. Talking Thursday, I
don't think we're gonna get it to two and a half.
I think it's gonna go down one and a half,
get closer to a pick, and that's gonna be a
tough choice because that at that point where we're chasing
a number. But yeah, two, if you're hearing this right now,

(57:03):
go grab it. That's good value on this Colts team.

Speaker 1 (57:05):
But it's not. Simon says, Nope, that's a free one.

Speaker 2 (57:09):
It's just a gift, just a gift.

Speaker 1 (57:10):
It's just a gift. Carolina at Arizona. Arizona is a
six and a half point favorite at home. Listen, we
know the sharp side here is to go bet Carolina.
And good for us that we didn't bet Carolina last week.
We did not ask anyone to bet Carolina last week.

(57:33):
We actually beat against Carolina last week. I know we
try to time these spots a bounce back. The only
offensive bright spot for Carolina is Chuba Hubbard. The receiver
depth is so limited, the defense is terrible and has

(57:53):
some injuries. Simon, say your piece.

Speaker 3 (58:00):
I thought McMillan played well too, though their first he did.

Speaker 1 (58:05):
He played well like six or seven catches and he did.
He did a nice job getting himself open, and like
when they did have drives and sort of sustain any momentum,
it was because Bryce Young was finding him. I'm surprised
you're not saying this is Simon says.

Speaker 2 (58:20):
Right now, No, because I'm I'm like you were.

Speaker 1 (58:24):
I'ld.

Speaker 3 (58:25):
I'm trying to be smart about this Panthers team. And
I did go back and watch their game, and as
bad as as the Cardinals played in some aspects against
that Saint's team, they still might be able to run
for two hundred yards against this Panthers team. Like there
are stuff they do offensively that really favors them in

(58:45):
this matchup.

Speaker 2 (58:46):
And you know, Cardinals might have got a steal draft.

Speaker 3 (58:50):
They have a corner who's I might be able to
just shut down corner and we Chad just nailed it,
like they don't have if you're taking away now they're
number one pick and there is no feeling safety route
guy And that was pretty apparent for Braces Young in
that game. He didn't have a number two he could trust,
especially on third down. So uh yeah, I'm not going

(59:11):
to force it. I might get there on Thursday. We
sit here right now. I haven't put a penny on
this Panthers number. And my whole mentality is I just
hope there's so much doubt out there like me that
no one touches and we do get a seven, because
once there's a seven, I have to take the Panthers
once against a seven. But six and a half, I
could be patient. I can let this number sit, but

(59:34):
it's another one we'll have to look along and hard
at for survivor chat because this is another good spot
for the Cardinals. But man, this Panthers team, it's so
brutal because I want to believe in them, but they
just have so many gaping issues. And when you just
look at the numbers from that Week one matchup, we'll
see if that was just a Jacks thing. But there
it's incredible how bad they're run defenses. And if you

(59:57):
can't stop the run, you have one of the worst
secondaries on football as well. Offensively, it's it's just tough.
There's just nothing else left for them to do defensely
to get stops.

Speaker 1 (01:00:06):
You know what, I'm still really proud of us that
we're not sort of just blindly going with the Panthers
at six and a half because we think there's something there,
because right now I'm not sure we think there's anything there.
Rams at rams at Tennessee, Tennessee plus six. I know
we want to take Tennessee. The pros has moved on Tennessee.

(01:00:26):
It's at one point moved from six to five and
a half. I got that back up. I don't really
know what we learned about the Rams. And we can
say the same thing about the Texans when we talk
about the Texans and the box in a few minutes.
I like cam Ward was pretty terrible. Not the reason
they lost the game, but you know, he wasn't anything

(01:00:49):
that we're like, yep, number one pick, going to be
in the Hall of Fame, not like he has to be.
In the first game. I got no lean here.

Speaker 2 (01:00:57):
I gotta send you a clip. He was good.

Speaker 3 (01:00:59):
I think cam Ward was good in this game. It's
just the team around him, the coaching, all of it.

Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
That's that's the issue with Tennessee.

Speaker 3 (01:01:06):
And this was almost almost Simon says, but I'm trying
to be patient, but there is like to me, when
I touched six, it's like, oh my god, the value
here is incredible. It's Stafford outdoors, that team outdoors on
grass against a Tennessee team that I think people are

(01:01:26):
like Chad, they didn't really think came Ward looked good
where I couldn't believe how good he looked against that
Bronco's defense. Like there was two different times where he
got first downs using his legs and they called it
back for holding. I do think the offensive line will
get better at that. They'll either be call signs from
the sideline like there's there's stuff they can do where
they can yell out the note to let go right

(01:01:47):
to not to let go when the defensive defender is
pulling away because cam Ward is moving upfield. But you
know his weird arm angle you saw give Calvin Rearly
some problems, right, he had some major drops in that
game again, stuff that I think is going to prove
as go long.

Speaker 2 (01:02:00):
So to me, I just love this Tennessee team.

Speaker 3 (01:02:03):
Maybe I'll make it, try to get you on the
same side and may get our ballsy bet again. I
just I can't get over the spot, the line value,
and the fact that, like you just said it, I
think I think the pros are joining the public on
this rams side.

Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
This number is gonna.

Speaker 3 (01:02:18):
Keep going up so in case it doesn't grab the
six now, but love this spot for a team that
you know, the Rams, they they're skating right. They won
their game, so they're not getting much hate, but they
didn't look that good against Houston like that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
That was really on CJ.

Speaker 3 (01:02:37):
Right, CJ sevelling for field goals and not getting touchdowns
with the difference of that game in that first half,
I think it was nine to seven and a half
and then they didn't get at a point maybe the
rest of the game that Houston team. So Rams defense
could be very legit right now. There's really tough assignment
for this offense in Tennessee. But honestly, I look at
the match and I'm just like, there's there's ways for

(01:02:58):
Tennessee to win this matchup attack this Rams team, and you.

Speaker 2 (01:03:02):
Know Rams coming off that big physical game.

Speaker 3 (01:03:05):
Now on the road, now outdoors, let the public keep
button it up.

Speaker 2 (01:03:09):
Give me a higher than six.

Speaker 3 (01:03:10):
I'll take the six now, but at six and a half, Chat,
I might might have to force this one in just
be like we we might lose it because we know.

Speaker 2 (01:03:18):
The deal, right, it's our rookie year playing against Stafford.

Speaker 3 (01:03:21):
But too much respect for a Rams team that I
think they got a little lucky in their Week one matchup,
but I think their defense is being a little overrated
now because of it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:30):
Philadelphia at Kansas City got a little line flip here.
It opened at Chiefs one and a half on Sunday night,
it is now Kansas City plus one. You liked the
Eagles in this game, and we talked on Sunday night
it has flipped. We don't love making that play when
a team has gone from one point underdog to one

(01:03:53):
point favorite. We did it with the Ravens. We bet
them on Sunday night personally when it had gone from
plus one to minus one. A little bit of a
kick in the dick. But I think we just think
the Eagles have a better roster here, and as you
said the other night, I don't think they're practicing these

(01:04:15):
past few days. Is they won a game. Meanwhile, the
Chiefs have a rebuilt offensive line that was not very
good and now they're going to play against an even
angrier Jalen Carter like the Eagles were freakishly balanced in
that game against the Cowboys in a way that really

(01:04:35):
highlighted how we're in control of the offense. Jalen hurts
Is and how they know their power. Their biggest issue
was the lack of discipline, which I believe they will
fix because they know how much they can't get away
with that against a team like the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:04:51):
Yeah, and the Eagles. I think it was some freakish thing.

Speaker 3 (01:04:53):
They look the most penalty yards in football in that
first half against Dallas, Like just everything felt like is
going wrong with that weather delay. And you know Carter
plays that game no weather delay. You can see how
there's ways that they just roll that Cowboys team, right,
because obviously he's the difference in that middle between the

(01:05:14):
run all of such a huge deal. You know, I
look at this game and I am just I don't
know about you, but it's like this. This is usually
me and Chad Auto.

Speaker 2 (01:05:26):
Play the Chiefs like there's gonna be an.

Speaker 3 (01:05:29):
Underdog at home. I cannot see the public coming on
this Chiefs team, honestly. I mean maybe in their teasers, right,
if this gets up to one and a half, they'll
throw them in up to seven and a half. But
betting it's straight, I'm assuming it's going to just be
all public money on this Eagles team as long as
it's under three and I told Chad I agree with
it on Sunday night, and I model it. I don't

(01:05:52):
know if my model understands how big of a deal
they're worthy out is. But it's had a pick so technically,
you know, right now it's plus one at hard Rock.
My model thinks there's value on this Chiefs team. I
just disagree. I just I really dive into They look
so slow defensively in many ways, and maybe that was
because of the travel.

Speaker 2 (01:06:10):
But you know, I just their defense and spags.

Speaker 3 (01:06:14):
They didn't they didn't make adjustments that really wowed me,
and there was feel like there was no move to
make where this Eagles team can beat you in so
many different ways, and they don't, like, you know, we
might not have Dickerson. They might have you know, a
substitute in there at the guard position, which is a
big deal and that could be a huge game breaker
for Kik Chris Jones. But it's like, offensively, I just

(01:06:36):
don't know how the Chiefs keep up with them. Now,
if you're out, you're number one, number two receiver and
your running back, but check go is not the same guy,
and you got a left you know tackle that's a rookie.
It's like these things add up about this Chiefs team
not being the team of the past that's getting so
much respect. So it's hard. Chad, I really hate it
because it feels so chalking. We're walking right into it,

(01:06:56):
We're walking right into what we know. It just feels
like a trap.

Speaker 2 (01:06:59):
But this is a game.

Speaker 3 (01:07:01):
I'm gonna wait on talk to people the books. I'm
literally gonna be in the books all day today and
just talking to people and see what the public is.
When I'm assuming I'm in the Philadelphia area, everybody's just
gonna be so about this Eagles team.

Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
It's gonna push me to love on this Chiefs team.
I know it, but I'm.

Speaker 3 (01:07:15):
Trying to trying to keep it, keep it one hundred
with everyone and just know that it's it's a game.

Speaker 2 (01:07:21):
I was confident with it.

Speaker 3 (01:07:22):
I guess Sunday night, I'm wavering a little bit just
because everything about it.

Speaker 2 (01:07:27):
The alarms are going off.

Speaker 3 (01:07:28):
Where it's like this is a Chief spot, But I
just I can't get over the fact is it a
Chief spot? This is not the same Chiefs team of
old that me and you blindly back like this is
real hesitation. I just breaking it down. I don't know
how they move the ball in this Eagles defense. This
is again it's the good of the Chargers team is
they're not as good as this Eagles defense across the board.

(01:07:49):
So yeah, revenge spot, super Bowl everything, I get it.
But you know, me and Chat talked about that travel
all of it. It's just it's so negative for this
Chiefs team. And you know, it's hard to think, but
then being on in two' that's a real thing right now.

Speaker 2 (01:08:03):
I think that's something that's actually gonna happen.

Speaker 1 (01:08:05):
Look, every year catches up right, and the key to
winning at betting sometimes is catching the wave before it crests.
And we're trying to do that with the Chiefs right now.
And this might be the spot. Atlanta Minnesota, this is

(01:08:26):
the Sunday night football game you still owe us a
Simon says, second primetime game in a row for JJ McCarthy,
second time being a primetime favorite in as many starts.
I think I'm gonna call him JJ moxy. I'm going
to coin that right now, trademarket. If you'd like to
buy it from me, that's totally cool. I can sell

(01:08:48):
it like it's the late nineties. Like I'm selling you know,
internet names. Early money was on Atlanta, but then it
all flipped after the game last night, the line up
to five and a half for a minute and now
has been brought back Atlanta. Sharper Square.

Speaker 3 (01:09:13):
Can't believe it, but Simon says, give me the Vikings
minus four and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:09:17):
Wow, I know.

Speaker 2 (01:09:18):
And it's shocking that I would love such a public favorite.

Speaker 3 (01:09:21):
Honest, stay in that game. But I'm just grabbing this
now in case it does go up to six.

Speaker 2 (01:09:26):
I just.

Speaker 3 (01:09:28):
Going back and watching that Atlanta team against the Bucks.
Atlanta is going to have major issues, like they're they're
all line banged up as it is. That's gonna be
a problem now when you're going against you know, to
me a great defense in the Vikings, that's what Like
Gab took a.

Speaker 2 (01:09:44):
Lot of shit. He dodged a lot of sacks, like
he had.

Speaker 3 (01:09:47):
Guys coming on in one on one and he was
able to get out of the Penix doesn't move like that.

Speaker 2 (01:09:52):
Like Penix is not that type of.

Speaker 3 (01:09:53):
Guy in the pocket where if you get him off
his spot, he struggles. And you know, when I look
at this matchup, I wasn't rushing to bet Nick because
I wanted to see what JJ could do. But they
match up perfectly against this Atlanta team. They're gonna be
able to run the ball for days like that. That's
going to be very apparent to people early on this matchup.

(01:10:15):
And you know, it's it's really about the number here.
So to me, I have it at six, it's four
and a half. I'll take the value on this one.
And yeah, it's I'm trying to switch it up because
I was literally gonna go Tennessee. But I'm like, Okay,
last week I made people take the Browns. Let me
give them a favorite here. I think there's good value here,

(01:10:35):
and I do think the public they'll back Atlanta. I
honestly believe that. So to me, four and a half.
It could go down. But I see the professionals like
me getting in this end of their model this Vikings
team and being like, wow, this team is legit, Like
this is a really good team. And defensively, I think
they're going to give the major problems to Penix in

(01:10:56):
this Falcons offense that you know, other than Robinson busting
off an insane catch for eighty yards and making everyone miss,
I just did not look the way they looked. They
just didn't look consistent against the Bucks. And you know Pennix,
that was his fourth start. This is a very young
quarterback now facing a Flora's defense on the road on
Sunday night. So don't be shocked to why this number

(01:11:19):
is so big. I'm telling you it should be closer
to six. It's just the public right now. Like I'm
looking at the splits, it's actually pretty heavy towards the
Atlanta team. So, like Chad said, more maybe people wake
up today, there'll be more towards this Vikings team. After
that big comeback win, maybe more money will come in
this Vikings team. But early money right now looks like
it's all Falcons, just because people just don't believe in
this Viking team that they should be this big of

(01:11:41):
a favorite. Where I'm telling you it's a really bad
spot for this Falcons seemed to be.

Speaker 1 (01:11:45):
In Melman likes Seattle on the road as a dog
for Chad loves love and Simon says his Minnesota as
a favorite and a prime time game. They're two Monday
night games this week. Tampa Bay at Houston is the
first one, Houston minus two and a half at hard Rock.
I just thought all the games that these two teams

(01:12:07):
played were both really strange. The Rams Texans was freakishly even,
down to the same exact number of plays for each
team total first downs, even the QBS missed this had
the same number of incompletions. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Atlanta could
have ended regulation at twenty three if not for a
missed field goal. So the line moved from one and

(01:12:28):
a half to two and a half in the first
twenty four hours in favor of the Texans. Why are
people My first thought is that the professional betters are
just more impressed with sort of how the Texans played
the Rams than how the Bucks barely beat the Falcons.

Speaker 3 (01:12:49):
I'm shore with this too, and I've had like a
couple of pros I talked to that was their first
bet they made was Houston and imeer with did you
I went back and watched the game because I know
how much I love Tennessee where it's like, all right,
I need to really watch this Rams game and see
this type of defense they're running here, and you know, Houston,
we knew the deal. They're gonna have this incredible defense.

(01:13:11):
Can they block for CJ? Can they have a running
game again, Nick Chubb is not the answer, right. You
saw how big of a deal it is that they
just don't have a running back in that game. And
you know, the Rams knew they were gonna have to
beat them with their arm and CJ just couldn't do
it right. Like I think Christian Kirk missed the game.
He's started this kid Higgins, who's this rookie they drafted

(01:13:33):
this year, and the plan of just doubling Collins and
making CJ use these other guys it worked.

Speaker 2 (01:13:41):
They totally worked in that game. So I think that's
what the Bucks will do here. We're getting plus three? Now?
Are we suckers? Are we squares here?

Speaker 3 (01:13:50):
Because that's it feels like we're being suckers here because
it's like, you know, again, the same type of game.
You look at the splits here, all the tickets are
on the Bucks, but the money is heavy on this
side of Houston.

Speaker 1 (01:14:04):
I like, it doesn't make any sense to me.

Speaker 3 (01:14:08):
I just think they look at this where the it's
it's Houston in a primetime game at home, in a
spot of they can't lose, Like they can't lose, They're
gonna be so much more desperate and hungry in this
exact spot in front of their fans where this historically
feels like a type of games Baker and Tampa they
do lose, right emotional road wind against a divisional FOAE

(01:14:28):
in Atlanta. Now you're on the road again in a
spot where you know they're gonna they're always gonna be desperate.
We've seen that playing stuff from Baker. He's just so scrappy.
He can play dead.

Speaker 2 (01:14:38):
For three quarters and just kill you in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3 (01:14:40):
But yeah, it's I think we're on the same page,
like matchup wise, I can't believe this number is up
to three now.

Speaker 2 (01:14:47):
It's like I have this at two.

Speaker 3 (01:14:49):
It's three. Obviously, I think there's value on the Bucks.
I'm just waiting to be patient because I know we
talk to more pros about this. I just can't believe
they think so highly of this Houston's defense that way
that they just totally think they're gonna shut down this
Bucks offense. And even if you know CJ can't score
more than one or two touchdowns, that's gonna be enough
to win this game.

Speaker 2 (01:15:08):
Because that's that's honestly what they're saying back.

Speaker 1 (01:15:11):
On their side, all right, last game Monday night football.
We'll definitely discuss that one again on Thursday. We'll get
some calls about it. I'm sure Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders.
It had been at three and a half Sunday night.
I leaned toward Vegas because of the hook, because it's
the hook that brings you back. Shout out Blues Traveler.

(01:15:35):
Now the line is three at hard Rocks, so someone's
taking the hook. Bruce Bowen, Bruce Bauers, I mean brock Bowers.
I'm mixing up San Antonio Spurs ex players and Las
Vegas Raiders tight ends. Brock Bowers said yesterday he was fine.
I was just grabbing the hook. That feels like the

(01:15:56):
sharp side to me. Not a strong opinion of this
game is a three.

Speaker 3 (01:16:01):
Agree, don't force the people. There's three and a half's
out there, go grab it. Like hard Rock, even in Jersey,
the three and a half is gone, so it doesn't
matter what state you're in, hard Rock that three is
going to be where they're at.

Speaker 2 (01:16:12):
So we're in the same page. Like I like the Raiders.

Speaker 3 (01:16:17):
But going back and watching that Chargers game, I don't
know if it is the Madison beer effect, but the
confidence and swagger that Herbert had.

Speaker 2 (01:16:31):
My god, my god, Like that.

Speaker 3 (01:16:33):
Was everything we've been waiting to see right like because
they put the stat up. The reason I'm a Herbert
hater is because he had eleven straight games where he
lost when the total points were under three. So if
he's down by three, he had lost eleven straight games
in that exact scenario. So to me, him stepping up
big in that fourth quarter just totally alternating my brain

(01:16:56):
with him right now, where it's like, even at this
number three, I'm like, man, that's a Chargers line here.
Like to me, they're pretty good, Like they're looking like
if they can put it together like they did against
that Chiefs team, they're gonna be a team that you know,
potentially will win this division because it's at the end

(01:17:18):
of the day, it's all on Herbert. People can make
excuses like you didn't have weapons, oh my god, the defense,
the coaching, I agree with all of it, but you
see the talent level of Herbert. There's a reason these
people who even though he's never done anything in his
entire career, make him a top five quarterback. Like the
raw talent, the athleticism, it is all there. So if

(01:17:38):
he's clicking. We got no prayer. We have no prayer
for this Vegas team if he is clicking like he
was against that Chiefs team. Because you know, I get
our love for this Raiders team. They beat Drake May like.
That's that like their secondary, that's their biggest weakness. It
wasn't truly tested, right, Stefan Diggs did impress them Like

(01:17:59):
Lad McConkie. He's from a different planet compared to Steph
on Digs at this as this point in his career,
So I'm glad we're not forcing this one in you
know three and a half that was staring at me.

Speaker 2 (01:18:11):
I think the same thing as you on Sunday.

Speaker 3 (01:18:12):
Night, where it's like that it's really good value on
this Raiders team, and it was all about Bowers. If
Bowers is good to go, that makes it even better
of a number. But at three two and a half,
I'm leaning towards the Charger's time. I literally have this
number three. So at three I won't force it, but
I do like charges at three minus two and a half.
But at three and a half, if I got to
make a play on it, to me, that's the value.

Speaker 2 (01:18:33):
That's that Raiders number all right.

Speaker 1 (01:18:36):
I don't think I skipped any games. I got them all.
We got a list to review, really fascinating lists, some
numbers that were just waiting to see how they move
before we can make a decision about are we going
further into the conversation with betting? How do they shape
up for our contest. Chad loves Love is Seattle plus three,

(01:18:56):
Simon says is Minnesota minus four and a half. This
has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We are presented by hard Rock Bat. We'll be back
on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on,
plus our Survivor Picks, our head to head battle, our
brass Ball, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube
at Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to the channel

(01:19:17):
also downloads some Spotify, Apple Pod wherever you get your pods.
Subscribe rate review feedback is always the gift. Don't forget.
We are collecting all the reviews in these early weeks
and we will start reading some of them on the show.
The winner from the moment of the contest that we
find to be the funniest, the one that makes us laugh,

(01:19:40):
and one that most represents how you connect with the show.
You know it's completely subjective. You're going to get some
premium sweat until next time. Love you,

All Episodes

Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Sharp or Square - NFL Week 2 bets: Eagles-Chiefs, Jets-Bills, Giants-Cowboys, Bears-Lions & more