Sharp or Square - NFL Week 3 bets: Rams-Eagles, Lions-Ravens, Chiefs-Giants, Cowboys-Bears and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharp or Square, presented by a hard rock
bet We are part of the Volume podcast network Business
the Betting Show, the number one betting show. It makes
the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
I am Chad Millman and I'm joined as.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
Always by my co host, my bff, my companion, my
compadre professional better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
Hell oh so I'm in Chad. Are we doing, brother dude.

Speaker 1 (00:31):
So at the end of our show on Sunday night,
we were talking about favorites dominating, and it feels a
little bit like they are picking up where they ended
last season. They were winning at such a rate last
year that the biggest sportsbook operators in the world, in

(00:52):
their earnings calls in the second in the third and
fourth quarter of the year had to reduce their revenue
projections because of what they described as customer friendly outcomes.
It means the favorites are winning too much, right, and
that means the public is winning too much because all
the big favorites are covering and winning outright. So r

(01:13):
pal Evan Abrams, greatest researcher in the world, had a
tweet on I don't know Sunday night Monday morning. The
favorites who closed at more than four are twelve straight
up this season, sixty four and seven. Since Week thirteen
of last year, paves of six plus points are forty

(01:36):
seven and four in that span. A reminder, over this
past weekend, the four point favorites were San Francisco one,
Baltimore one, Detroit one, Buffalo one, Rams one. By the way,
those teams all covered as well. The two that didn't
cover but still one with the Cowboys and Cardinals, the

(01:58):
Cardinals who gave it away in the final five minute.
So it's why we added Simon that money line round
robin for favorites. The dogs can't win, they can barely cover.
So if you don't change, you don't evolve, right, and
we evolve, Simon. Do you want to know how we're
going to prove it this week?

Speaker 3 (02:19):
I'm looking forward to you showing me Choed.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
It's our Tuesday show. We're going to review the entire slate.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
We will have a battle, Simon, a battle of perception
versus reality. Now that we have two weeks of games,
let's get after it.

Speaker 2 (02:35):
Don't forget.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
You can get all the shows at Sharper Square on
YouTube go subscribe like this video. While you're at it,
you can subscribe to Sharper Square, Apple, Pose, Spotify, et cetera.
I look Thursday Night at Miami at Buffalo Buffalo a
twelve and a half point favorite. I think the theme
for this episode really is perception and reality, old school
old school philosophy versus reality. Old school reality is you

(03:00):
bet the dogs of more than twelve points in a
division game. The reality, thanks to Killer Sports, dogs in
those spots are forty four percent against the spreads in
twenty fifteen. We avoided it last week and ignoring the
Browns in the Ravens game. The question is not do
we bet the Dolphins? The question is are the Dolphins

(03:22):
so bad we would bet against them in this spot that,
to me, all of a sudden becomes the question.

Speaker 3 (03:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (03:30):
And again it's a game that I'm only going to
be on one side. People know my stance on Swam
with Tea. I'm just going to keep fading them every week.
I just until a change happens, right until they fire
the head coach in GM, which I think is just
it's needed. There's just some of these organizations. I mean,
we'll go through it today. But like you're two weeks in,

(03:52):
what do you think is really going to change?

Speaker 3 (03:54):
Right?

Speaker 4 (03:54):
You kind of know with some of these teams, just
the way it started and the way the vibes are.
So Miami's just a team that at fourteen fourteen and
a half, because it's a standalone game on a short
week and Miami is really desperate, I probably could be
tucked into it. But at this number, I'll just be
like the Joe public, I'll throw it in my teaser
with someone else from Sunday and just I mean, this

(04:16):
is gonna be just a huge need for the book.

Speaker 3 (04:20):
So, like we just said, Chalk has been winning in
the olden days just four or.

Speaker 4 (04:23):
Five years ago. I would loved the Dolphins in the spot.
They're going to be a huge need for the book.
And like Chad's saying, no one's gonna be betting Miami here,
like this is such a Miami number, of Miami spot.
But we've seen these Thursday games they tilt to the
favorites at home and that's held true. And Chad just
sit here those stats. These big dogs, they just ain't

(04:46):
hitting like they used to. So I am so happy
we don't need to force this one and probably not.
Don't even need to talk about it on a Thursday show.
I'm simply looking at this as a teaser spot with
the bills, or if you really want to, you could
survivor it.

Speaker 3 (04:59):
But I hate doing Survivors on Thursday. But I get it.
But I just this number is insane.

Speaker 4 (05:06):
I can't believe, honestly, I can't believe that it's up
to where it's at. And I could see it keep
getting hired just because they need they're gonna need Dolphins money.
I just don't see it come until the professionals really
get that thirteen thirteen and a half, So sit that
twelve and a half.

Speaker 3 (05:19):
Like Chad said, no need to force it.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
I'm a little surprised it hasn't gotten at fourteen already.
There's no evidence of things unseen to make you want
to bet on the Dolphins. It just goes to show
you to me that everyone's kind of sitting this one
out because it hasn't moved off the twelve and a
half since Sunday. So if the wise guys were coming in,

(05:43):
they're the ones who are going to bet in the
first forty hours forty eight hours and sort of pluck
those early big lines. It's just solid twelve and a half.
So it hasn't gone down to twelve. It hasn't gone
down to eleven and a half, but it hasn't gone up,
meaning everyone's just sort of avoiding it.

Speaker 4 (05:59):
To me, yeah, at this point, and you if you
have to take the number in a pick contest, I
would say on this show, I feel like we Chad.
You say you don't have to take the Dolphins number.
But if you're looking for an angle on the Dolphins side,
the best one I could think of is banged up
secondary defense that obviously the Jets couldn't expose in their matchup.
But Miami has the weapons that can. But like too

(06:22):
has just been so bad. He's had these picks, he's
throwing all of it. It's just so bad. I am
happy that we can avoid this one.

Speaker 3 (06:30):
Brother.

Speaker 1 (06:33):
Green Bay Packers, who might be the best team in
the NFL right now after two games. They are visiting
the Cleveland Browns. The line opened at eight and a half,
actually got that up a little bit to nine. Now
it's been bought back down to eight and a half.
I'll tell you this, man, I don't know what to

(06:53):
do with the Browns and I want to get your
take on this, because we love the Browns in week one,
but the reason we love the Browns a week one
is because we believe their defense is elite, and statistically
they are proving that to be the case. But they
were going against a revamped offensive line and a not
very good defense. And then in this past week I

(07:15):
rewatched this game assignment. I was on the rower and
I rewatched the condensed version in thirty eight minutes on with.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
My Ravens Browns.

Speaker 2 (07:25):
Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I did.

Speaker 1 (07:28):
Because here's the thing, Like, statistically, this game made no sense.
The Browns had three hundred and twenty two yards, the
Ravens had two hundred and forty two. Browns had seventy
two plays. The Ravens had fifty three rushing yards. The
Browns had one hundred and fifteen, the Ravens had forty five.
The Browns had five point two yards per carry. The
Ravens had two point one third downs. The Browns were

(07:48):
seven to eighteen, Ravens were three and twelve. I am
going to get into with the Ravens how this was
so deceiving because Joe Flacco was terrible, like actively terrible.
Any passing threw outside that was more than five yards
was usually high and had to be an acrobatic catch

(08:09):
by his receivers. They scored one touchdown before garbage time.
That was a miracle fourth down that was deflected off
Marlin Humphrey that shouldn't have been an interception. His whole
game was checked downs and screens like they have no offense.
So I can't bet on a team that has a
great defense as a big dog at home if I'm afraid,

(08:30):
even if the defense only gives up twenty points, they
won't even get ten.

Speaker 4 (08:37):
It's fair, but this is easily the best defense Green
Bay has faced this year, and it's the zero to
two team, Like, this is the type of teams you
like because it is such a desperate spot and they're
going against a team that this will be Joe's versus pros.
The public is going to be all over the screen
Bay team. I was literally at the hard Rock this morning.

(08:59):
This is so it and a half in Jersey. So
some money has hit this brown side at least here
in Jersey. Uh, you know, I'm with you. I just
I view this. This Browns team is just a dog
that's always gonna be the fight. Like you said, you know,
they're they're asking their fourty year old quarterback Joe Flacko

(09:20):
to throw the ball like fifty times. So I know
what you're saying. He played really bad. It's like he
is going to be deceased by week eight. I mean,
he's just dropping back this much, taking all these hits.

Speaker 1 (09:31):
But literally throw back to the ogs who used to
listen to Behind the Bets with Scooge when we did
it at ESPN.

Speaker 2 (09:41):
He's battered Flacco, literally battered Flacco.

Speaker 4 (09:46):
Yeah, show some respect. Look how bad the how long ago?
You're a bad mouth on the man. He's still throwing
the touchdowns and then right, but yeah, it's a game
where I'll end up on their browns. But I'm like you,
it's I'm like dipping my toes in and where it's
like I don't really want to be on this spot.
And green Bay is another side I'm sure we're gonna
have in our money line round robin where it's like,

(10:07):
in what scenario does green Bay lose? The only thing
I can think of, the only angle I can look
at again for this is green Bay has a lot
of injuries, and you know Washington was in a bad
spot in a short week, and we'll see coming out
of this extended rest if Green Bay can get a
little healthier.

Speaker 3 (10:24):
I'm back on that offensive line.

Speaker 4 (10:25):
But if you're down, guys, your offensive line, you're going
against this Brown's defensive line, you're gonna have a bad time.

Speaker 3 (10:33):
Like, let's be honest. So this is just one I'm
gonna keep eye on. But Chad, you're right here. On Tuesday.

Speaker 4 (10:39):
People want to grab the eight and a half, I'm
grabbing it just in case the pro money does come on.
But I'm shocked the stummery he's down to seven and
a half, just because I thought it was gonna be
all public all over the Green Bay team. But yeah,
the early professional money now is coming on the Brown.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
Side, which is not surprising. I would expect the early
pro money.

Speaker 3 (10:58):
We saw it.

Speaker 1 (10:59):
It was at nine, down to eight and a half,
you're saying, you're saying Hard Rock is at seven and
a half in New Jersey. I just I worry about
betting on a quarterback who cannot do anything more than
a checkdown, and whose coordinator and his coach don't seem
to want to let him do anything more than a
check down.

Speaker 3 (11:17):
Well, that was.

Speaker 4 (11:18):
That was against the Ravens and Kyle Hamilton. I get
what I know. I get where you're coming from. But
if there's a team that you're taking the checkdown safe throws,
but I completly understand your cover. They were checking down
still when they're down twenty, it was I'm with you.
Like that game was just Stefanski doesn't trust him. The
offense just doesn't trust it. But there it's a different

(11:39):
world going from that position to being the one they're
going to be in next week. So yeah, I understand.
I'm not going to make us force the Browns in
this week.

Speaker 2 (11:47):
I don't want to not do it.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
It's one of the games I one hundred want to bet,
like I'm I actually was hoping you would come in
strong and say to me, come.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
On, Chad, get your head out of your ass.

Speaker 3 (11:59):
Not there.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
This is the game. Like, of course we're going to
bet this game.

Speaker 1 (12:03):
It's a team with a great defense at home, is
a big dog off of a blowout. Nine times out
of ten we auto bet this. I wanted you to.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Tell me that I guess we're not.

Speaker 3 (12:16):
There love yet.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
Houston, Jacksonville, Jacksonville. This game was one and a half.
It's down to one. In some places, it's down to
a half. You know, I don't know, man, poor Houston.
They got Baker, they got Baker good last night, and
that offensive line cannot keep the pressure off of CJ.

Speaker 2 (12:39):
Stroud.

Speaker 1 (12:41):
He is now going into a second straight season of
just not looking very good once teams adjust to what
they're doing after you know, fifteen scripted plays. So it's
weird how ineffective they are. I don't know how to
measure this. I don't know how to analyze this because

(13:02):
he's supposed to be a great quarterback and they cannot execute.
They cannot move the ball, they cannot protect him. It's disappointing,
but it's moving in his direction?

Speaker 2 (13:11):
Is it? Because everyone thinks the Jags are so.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
What? Is it?

Speaker 2 (13:17):
Mismanaged? I've already lost the word that I'm looking for.
Help me.

Speaker 3 (13:22):
I would say they're a team.

Speaker 4 (13:25):
That they traded up to the second pickoverall to a
guy that isn't that good. That's how I'm gonna sum
up the Jags right now. With their Travis Huntermove.

Speaker 1 (13:33):
All in, all in their GM came out. He was like,
we're going all in. This is how you make big
most I know.

Speaker 4 (13:38):
He was so cocky even though he did nothing. Yeah,
this is every pro I know is gonna be on Houston.
And we talked last week. They were lining up to
get Houston in that spot, and they got Baker, like
you said, and I love that Baker showing out right
two weeks in a row, two comeback wins.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
It's great.

Speaker 3 (13:57):
I mean that shit we were taking repeating like how
are you guys going to play him?

Speaker 4 (14:00):
And you're your top ten? This is why this is
like he's got whatever that thing is. You can't measure.
Baker's got it. It's crazy like those both games left
for dead and just rises up in the clutches moments,
makes big time throws.

Speaker 3 (14:17):
I mean, yeah, just I couldn't believe.

Speaker 4 (14:20):
I thought he was going to be for sure knocked
out that game in the midway through the third quarter.
And yeah, he's just so tough Baker. So yeah, back
to Houston. This spot, it's it's going to be a
trend spot for I think eighty percent of guys you've
bet for a living Okay, Oh, and to Houston against
the spread straight up on the road in a spot

(14:41):
as a dog. I mean there's still one and a
half something there like Chad said, a hard rock, they've
moved to one. So I would get the one and
half I can or I know people hate betting one
and a half, Fine, throw him in your teaser, then
get him up to seven and a half fift you need to.
But incredible, incredible spot for Houston facing the Jacks team
that how is it not all burning down around them

(15:02):
right now? That was that had to be the worst
flight home this past week of any team. That was
to have been a pin drop, Like you couldn't hear
anything on the plane, No one was talking, just awful,
awful vibes.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
And I don't know about you.

Speaker 4 (15:17):
But I never not that I feel like I've been
too hard on Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 3 (15:22):
But even in Week one, I just watched him.

Speaker 4 (15:24):
I was just like, he just isn't good, Like he's
just not good, he's not consistent, and he totally gave
that game away, Like your defense gets three picks on
a backup quarterback, you have to win that game.

Speaker 3 (15:37):
And just I just can't get over how bad it
is for the Jaguars.

Speaker 4 (15:42):
So I feel lucky where Houston lost in the game,
Like we just both agreed they probably shouldn't have lost.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
I mean, they just got really unlucky.

Speaker 4 (15:51):
And I expect the public to be on the Jaguars
here and maybe this number can go up a little bit,
but as we see right now at hard rockets come down.
So I like the one and a half on Houston,
but it's another game where I think what you've said
is true, that.

Speaker 3 (16:09):
Something's wrong.

Speaker 4 (16:10):
We see j in this offense right now, and it's
a little a little scary stepping in on this team
and believe in them. But it's the numbers and the
trends are gonna point to this being a good spot
and I have it at a pick. So it's like
I have Houston as great as a better team. They're
the dog. I'll take it, but there's a couple of
games this week they just make your stomach turn taking
it because it's just like you said, we've we've watched

(16:30):
them now for two weeks and it's like, man, I see,
I see see how it's going sideways for Houston. But man,
is this is this a make or break spot for
this team and they have to be the more desperate
one of the Jaguars.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
Yeah, the the Jacks posted Liam Khan's postgame.

Speaker 3 (16:51):
Speech, which I thought was cool. I never saw that before.

Speaker 1 (16:54):
I thought it was great, Like you post the losing
coaches speech and he talks about how they have to
get better, and it's on all of that and they're
going to look at the film, and I thought that
was that was really interesting.

Speaker 2 (17:06):
It's funny.

Speaker 1 (17:07):
It's funny to me that you say we haven't been
hard on Trevor Lawrence. I feel like we've been dogging
Trevor Lawrence for two years, saying he's inaccurate when he
needs to be accurate. He has no touch inside the
red zone. He's overrated. They shouldn't have paid him. He
hasn't proven that he's worth the money they gave him

(17:28):
in any respect. And this was the perfect game. Like
he's becoming to me, he's becoming an impediment to that team.

Speaker 2 (17:38):
And I think it's good.

Speaker 1 (17:38):
I think it's going to be really frustrating because it
doesn't look like he kind of is the one who
can take them to the next level because they should
have a deep receiver room, like it should be an
offensive juggernaut.

Speaker 2 (17:54):
So I don't know.

Speaker 1 (17:56):
He had three touchdowns in the first half and then
in the second half he had multiple interceptions and was inaccurate.

Speaker 4 (18:03):
Yeah, and Darrel fourteen seventy, he could have put them
up twenty one seventy throw a pick in the end zone.
But I just went the masses, like there's still people
out there that talk and put them in their top
ten list than they do in the off season.

Speaker 3 (18:15):
There's still shows out there that believe them.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
I mean not to say you believe them, but you
did pick them to win this division, and I guess
it was because of the number. But it's like, yeah,
there's still some a little bit in the back of
our minds where I told you after last year he
burned me so bad. I was just like, I'm gonna
just be patient, let me see it first and then
I'll invest the money in Trevor Lawrence. And man, it's
it just will not make sense. His talent, his body

(18:40):
frame has built, his arm, talent, all of it. It's
just crazy. Yeah, exactly, it's just crazy. He doesn't have
the mindset for it.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
All in the head at this point. It's all in
the head, right, because we why does Baker Mayfield, who
doesn't have any of the.

Speaker 2 (18:58):
Natural give that Trevor Lawrence a legend. Let me finish,
Let me finish.

Speaker 1 (19:05):
He's not a doll. Like his drunning motion isn't as good.
But the guy Kimball and his players love him, and
he's top ten. Trevor Lawrence is not no all right,
the backup quarterback ball Cincinnati and Minnesota. The line has
come down tremendously now that we know it's Carson Wentz
versus Jake Browning. Weird game, no feel. I kind of

(19:30):
want to see what's going to happen with a lot
of the people who have been injured from Minnesota, because
it's obviously been an issue. Whether it's Ryan Kelly who's
now out with the cancushion who left the game with
a concussion, Christian Darisaw who the left tackle who didn't
play was his status, Andrew van Ginkel, They lost Aaron
Jones to a hamstring, Harrison Smith, Jonathan Gernard, like all

(19:52):
these guys either didn't play last week or left the
game last week. Now you got Carson Wentz Bengals here.
Before I would before I would bet on the Vikings.
I don't want to play it, but I have more
faith in Jake Browning than I do in Carson Wentz.

Speaker 4 (20:09):
Oh my god, the man threw three picks last week,
I might get it. I mean a ticket, So that's
why you're probably just like happy about it. But that's
one of those monies you should donate after winning that
bet on that Bengals team because it was.

Speaker 1 (20:21):
Wins a win? Do I have to like when I
lose games like that? Is someone going to give me
money because it felt so bad for me?

Speaker 3 (20:30):
Why would it feel bad? You just laugh? Does never
feel bad? You just laugh how stupid it was. But
I I live for this.

Speaker 4 (20:37):
You're getting Carson Wentz and I spot that you know,
isn't this isn't this for his life?

Speaker 3 (20:45):
Like so I love it. Like he's either gonna throw
what Brownie do.

Speaker 4 (20:48):
He's gonna throw a three picks and just be a
train wreck, or I think he could be really solid
in this offense. When you look at the tape of
this Vikings team, even when they have guy like you said,
they have injuries their defense that is an issue. But
I think if people get cleared, this could easily get
up to three and a half. And it's just about
the talent level of this Vikings team and JJ McCarthy.

(21:13):
I'm sure people looked at the passing charts. He simply
can only throw it to one side of the field,
So I think it's in a real injury. But I
get why people are like, even if this is maybe
a one week thing, they might have them out for
two to three weeks.

Speaker 3 (21:29):
And I don't know, I can't believe. It's just crazy.

Speaker 4 (21:34):
Where they let Sam Donald walk and you might have
a quarterback that can only throw it one side of
the field. And that's what's so terrifying about drafting these rookies,
putting them out there.

Speaker 3 (21:42):
And I mean it.

Speaker 4 (21:44):
Was one week of tape and the defense already looked
like it figured out JJ McCarthy. So it's it's pretty
terrifying where the last year Sam Donald I think had
five touchdowns for the Vikings against Atlanta and JJ I
think got sacked like six times and was just an
absolute train wreck. So yeah, tough time being a GM
right now for the Vikings and this game right here,

(22:05):
Like you just said, I'm happy to stay away from
it as you are, but I'll take the three for
now just because it's the Vikings are a better team.

Speaker 3 (22:14):
We'll see about Wentz.

Speaker 4 (22:16):
We know, it's just you don't know what you're getting
so there's like no chance this would be in our countess.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
You know, at two and a half.

Speaker 4 (22:22):
I don't even know if I could convince myself, let
alone chat the force of the Vikings in a two
and a half.

Speaker 3 (22:26):
So I'm with you, it's the backup Bowl.

Speaker 4 (22:29):
This is why we protect the quarterbacks for exactly because
of a game like this where it's like, just protect
the quarterbacks at all costs. It's just week week three
when we down five starters, six six qbs. So yeah,
it's an ugly one for sure. And I know usually
I take the dog in the spot, but at the three,
I'll take I'll take the.

Speaker 1 (22:49):
Vikings Atlanta at Carolina. This one popped and we talked
about it on Sunday night. We said we're not going
to be fooled by Bryce Young's come back in the
fininal five minutes of the games when he looked exactly
like Bryce Young from last year when they went seven
and two against the spread and won four of those
games outright. And that was before the Atlanta game against

(23:14):
the Vikings when their defense looked looked really good against
JJ McCarthy. But since then this line has popped. It
was around three three and a half. It's gone up
to five and a half, mainly because the Panthers lost
Austin Corb and Robert Hunt, their center in their right guard.
They were put on ir from an offensive line that
was already having a really hard time predicting. Bryce Young,

(23:38):
I don't have an opinion on the game at five
and a half, just because I feel like I liked
Atlanta and we've now lost the best of the number.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
Do you have thoughts here?

Speaker 3 (23:48):
Yeah, we'll put them on our money line around Robin Brow.
I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (23:51):
The best of the number is gone, and they're going
to force me like last week.

Speaker 3 (23:55):
I mean, Companther's got to seven last weege Ariazon.

Speaker 4 (23:57):
If this gets up to seven, they're a plus seven
home dog or six and a half. I'll have to
do it. But like I said, I'm not punishing people
in the show anymore with the Panthers. I'm not going
to make them take it, and it'll be my own
suffering if I do. But yeah, we'll happily put the
Atlanta and our money line run Robins. It's a good
spot for them and the Panthers pull off the upset

(24:20):
good Hopefully A couple of people through the Falcons and
their survivor pool.

Speaker 3 (24:23):
But yeah, I just we can't give us out on
the show.

Speaker 2 (24:26):
It's so funny.

Speaker 1 (24:27):
We are so either skittish or more disciplined about these
dogs at home and the big dogs and betting on
quarterbacks that we don't trust. Yeah, those are different in
the NFL. They just are.

Speaker 2 (24:44):
And so we can't. Like I said, we've got to evolve.

Speaker 4 (24:48):
But bye weeks in bye weeks. In a game like this,
we probably had to force us one in. But like,
we're blessed right now, we got the full slate. We
don't need to make these horrible, suffering decisions yet.

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(25:54):
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Speaker 2 (27:17):
For Jao.

Speaker 1 (27:22):
Pittsburgh at New England, New England is a one and
a half point favorite. We talked about this on Sunday.
I think we both thought this line would have moved
a little bit. I think Aaron Rodgers has looked pedestrian
against a Jets defense we thought might be good and
the Seahawks defense that we know is good.

Speaker 2 (27:47):
His decision making.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Is flawed, his reactions are slower, his lack of athleticism
is being exposed. He's been sacked seven times in the
first two games straight. Facts, here's a bigger problem with
the Steelers right now.

Speaker 2 (28:01):
Simon.

Speaker 1 (28:03):
There's this defense that we love that we think is amazing.
Allowed one hundred yards rushing in seven of the past
eleven games, including the first two this season. The Seahawks,
by the way, had thirty eight in the first half
and seventy nine in the second half, same number of carries.
Alex high Smith left the game with the high ankle sprain.

(28:25):
They got much much worse after that. You've been telling
me believe in Verrabel, believe in Vrabel. It's time to
believe in Vrabel. Do I believe in Vrabel?

Speaker 2 (28:38):
Right now?

Speaker 1 (28:38):
I have not bet this, and all my systems, everything
is telling me, take the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
Take the Patriots. I have not bet this yet.

Speaker 4 (28:48):
Yeah, I wish you would have believed in them last week, Vrabel,
But I don't know. I went back and watched that
New England Miami game, and Newland might be really bad
like they You know, Christian Zals is a huge deal.

Speaker 3 (29:01):
He's probably the best defender, and.

Speaker 4 (29:05):
You know Tyreeq Waddle there's multiple player where they were
shrieking wide open. If Twoo just could put the ball
on the spot, you know, Miami would have had a
lot of you know better, Miami would have probably won
that game. Honestly, really going through it. But yeah, this,
this honestly would be another time just honestly believing and

(29:25):
vraible because I know Patriot fans and Drake made Truthers
are like, you see how great he was against Miami.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
We talked about Miami's secondary is horrible.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
Drake May had a bunch of fifty to fifty balls
that really worked out in his favor in that game,
which at the end of the day we'll take because
we said Miami is a really bad secondary. Jalen Ramsey
has actually been pretty good for Pittsburgh and their secondary
is just deceased. They have nothing left in their secondary,
and that that's been the biggest issue, right we do.
We did love their defense, and it was because they've

(29:56):
been so good over the years, and then the most
expensive defense in all football. It's I joked before the
season with you, they're paying their defense. I think it
was like one hundred million dollars more than the Eagles
are in total for their own defense. And I think
we'd both agree which defense we'd rather have right now.
So Steelers, it's it's a it's a game.

Speaker 3 (30:17):
I want to dive more into.

Speaker 4 (30:19):
My view of this one is there were books give
us the two because right now it is a lot
of Steelers money so I'm happy to be patient. Look
at this one as maybe potential Simon says, but if
they're going back and watching the Miami tape, it's like,
oh my god, I can't believe how bad this secondary
is because it's Gina Smith week one and we just

(30:40):
saw Gino last night look like totally lost against a
banked up Charges defense. So it's it's just I'm gonna
have little patience here with this one. Hopefully gets to
two to two and a half, just like last week, right,
they got to two and a half against Miami. That
that to me is a more comfortable, better spot to
be in where I still just have questions about this
Newland team. And I see what they're forming with the

(31:02):
Rabel identity and uh, you know that him running all
on the sideline when the kick return, Like, oh, that's
why we love Rabel and the players play for him.

Speaker 3 (31:11):
But man, is joke. We joke all the time about
Tom and Tomlin spots.

Speaker 4 (31:19):
I can't imagine this week in practice right, how and
how it's going to be for this team. So yeah,
we'll see chat. This one's based on the number. Be
patient if you like doing them, wait for the two.
If you like Pittsburgh, I got no issue. You're grabbing
it now in case it goes goes up.

Speaker 1 (31:35):
Are you ready for a trend? I know you love
the trends from our friends at Killer Sports. And this
applies to a few teams this week. Okay, teams that
have failed to cover in the first two weeks in
Week three sixty against the spread since twenty ten. That clues,

(32:00):
by the way, the Miami Dolphins. It also includes the
Pittsburgh Steelers and a few other teams that we're going
to talk about today. Look, I think we need to
be selective when it comes to trends, Like you can't
just back them again like blindly. We will not do
it with the Dolphins. The Steelers could be more interesting,

(32:22):
even though I don't want to play them.

Speaker 4 (32:24):
But if you do bet trends, that's one where like
you take like Chia said, you take Miami, you take Houston,
you take Pittsburgh here like that's that's a timeless trend.

Speaker 3 (32:33):
I bet you're going back even further. That would hold
up in week three.

Speaker 4 (32:36):
Just because we talk all the time, the public go reacts,
professional manager react. The number moves too much, you get value.
On the other side, so yeah, that's a totally great
trend to give out to start the week with.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Steelers, Chiefs, Saints, Bears, Broncos, Dolphins zero and two against
the spread.

Speaker 3 (32:56):
I like a lot of those teams.

Speaker 1 (32:58):
I do too, So we're going to we're going to
get to the games here. I'm excited you said that.
I'm going to assume that means you might like the Bears.
I'm excited to talk about that Los Angeles Rams at
the Philadelphia Eagles. Eagles three and a half point favorites
right now. Look, this came up Sunday night on the show.

(33:18):
A YouTube watcher asked if we should be in the comments,
should we be considering the Rams and the money line.
Your first reaction was that you didn't hate it. The
line has moved in the Rams direction. It was four
and a half and now it's three and a half.
I have so many thoughts in this game. I need

(33:38):
to get yours before I share mine, because I feel
like I feel like I'm just going to tell you
right now I really like the Eagles here, but tell
me your thoughts.

Speaker 3 (33:47):
Yeah, I said grabbed the four and out just because
that was a good opening line. That was good value.

Speaker 4 (33:51):
I just stayed away from the money line here just
because of the history of these two teams. Some teams
just have other team's numbers, and you know, you dive
into this Rams team. I believe they're last eleven games,
they've won nine. Their two losses were to this Eagles team.
So some teams just match up well against you, and

(34:11):
apparently that's what it is with this Eagles team.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
Rams. I believe last week something crazy.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
It was the most it was the biggest blowout of
the Stafford McVeigh Dandam isn't that crazy And it wasn't
even that big, No, So it's been a weird, a
weird case of uh. You know, these Rams just take
care of business, beat these teams close.

Speaker 3 (34:35):
And the Eagles.

Speaker 4 (34:37):
This is as an Eagles fan, this is like my
I don't know if this is peak right now of
my fano, but this is good as it gets. This week,
you got guys like Adam Schef, They're all these different
you know, sideline reporters coming on just saying it's not
a football play. This is why the guy got rid
of the toush push And I am just loving. It's

(34:58):
the best as a fan where your team is so
good at a QB sneak. People want it banned, they
want it out of the game forever.

Speaker 3 (35:06):
And I love it. This is an Eagles fan.

Speaker 4 (35:09):
This is peak right. Two super Bowls in seven years.
Everyone just hates them. People say this is the most
boring offense in all football.

Speaker 3 (35:18):
Who cares, you know, it's a scor is to the sport.
They forget.

Speaker 4 (35:23):
This Eagles team last year scored the most points in
NFL history in the playoffs. This boring, horrible offense. I
think of all the great offenses that ever played this sport.
This Eagles team with this boring pushbush running the ball
five yards two yards at a time, most points scored
in NFL history in the playoffs last year.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
So I love it. It's just a team that I talked
about last year.

Speaker 4 (35:48):
The Eagles are chameleons and they will form to whatever
the other team is and just suffocate them whatever their
weakness is, whatever it takes to win the game, whether
it just be the most boring slow bleed them out
this type of style, or pushing the ball downfield if
they need to. So I like dismatch before I feel
like the same reason as you do of this is

(36:09):
peak overrated Rams team right now, it feels like and
a bad spot for those Rams team in the sense
that I think we both agree we have questions about
that Houston team. We have a major questions about Tennessee
that Eagles team they showed me last week, because I
did in the back of mind, I did think that
was a terrible.

Speaker 3 (36:29):
Spot for them.

Speaker 4 (36:29):
But going against that Chiefs team, where we know how
desperate the Chiefs are going to be and all the
stuff that came along with it. If this is l
this season, I'd be with you, I'd be way more
confident on the Eagles here at three and a half.
I'm not going to force it because I did see
threes pop and then you quickly saw go right to
three and a half. So I have no that's on
this other than my Rams four and a half ticket.
But I think we're aligned up that this is probably

(36:51):
gonna hit a point where this is gonna be an
Eagles value line, and I'll wait for that.

Speaker 3 (36:55):
But as we see here right now, I'm.

Speaker 4 (36:57):
Tempted on it because I just see how how much
better the Seago's team is, but I'm not going to
force it.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
I've watched this Eagles team and feel like they're at
the height of their powers. And this is a one
hundred percent perception versus reality game, because I do think
the Eagles can kind of do whatever they want at
this point, and I think they can play over the

(37:27):
top if they have to. I think they can play
physical if they have to. I think they can rush
the passer if they want to. I think the Rams
right now are getting a lot of credit for being
really aggressive and having a defensive line that created a
lot of pressure against a Texas team that we saw
can't handle pressure, and against the Titans team that we'll

(37:48):
get into is actually the worst at handling pressure of
any team in football right now. So like their QB
pressure rate offensively defending his opponent is I think thirty
first or thirty second only worse than maybe only the
Bengals are worse. And this is without being blitzed. So
like that discrepancy is massive. So the Rams all of

(38:10):
a sudden getting too much credit. Here's my big fear,
and it's why to me, it's not a Chad loves
love yet, because this was like.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
Pete, Chad loves love.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
For me, I'm going to tell you, and I'm a
little worried about the secondary against the Rams because Stafford
and Puca and DeVante they looked really good, like that
might be the strength of their team right now.

Speaker 4 (38:40):
Yeah, my biggest question fear for the Eagles right now
is the offensive coordinator is someone who's never done the
job before. And he sounds the part. He talks good
talk in his interviews. He's got all that down, pat,
but I've real questions about his offensive scheme. It is
it's very simple, but it's very simple and easy to

(39:03):
read and very basic.

Speaker 3 (39:04):
And I know it's early days here, right, so it's
I get it.

Speaker 4 (39:08):
They're not trying to put too much on Galen's plate,
but it's always a little nervous when it's it's someone's
name that you don't know. They've never been in this
position before, and they got it because he was very
little to sir around. He's been in with Cron the
whole way. He's been his guy. Hurts went to bat
form helped him get.

Speaker 3 (39:24):
The job as well.

Speaker 4 (39:25):
But through two weeks, I think that's the only glaring
weakness right now is Hurts and learning this offensive system.
And the second biggest one is what Chad just mentioned.
The number two corner of this Eagles team. So things
that the Rams team could exploit, Like this Rams team
very well oiled machine. There's a reason I love them
coming into the year if Stafford was healthy, because I

(39:46):
told you that that Adam's ad getting rid of Cooper
Cup was a huge deal and replacing another guy like
Adams who might be still the best route runner of
all football.

Speaker 3 (39:54):
He's just so crisp everything he does.

Speaker 4 (39:57):
And yeah, it's uh, it's a It's a crazy game
to have at one o'clock. I can't believe this is
not the Sunday night game. Yeah right, yeah, it's it's
a game. I'm sure we're gonna talk more on Thursday.
As we said it right now, I think we're both
lining up to be on this Eagle side.

Speaker 1 (40:10):
Yeah, definitely Las Vegas at Washington. The game's moved to
three and a half from six and a half basically
because there's Jade Daniels intrigued.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
We don't know if he's going to be playing or not.

Speaker 1 (40:20):
I just got an injured knee, had an MRI, so
kind of it passed from me until we know what's happening.

Speaker 4 (40:28):
Okay, I'll probably be on the Raiders here I'll take
this early in line at three and a half, just
in the simple fact it was everything went wrong, horrible game, obviously,
short week flying out east. I just think everyone's gonna
be on Washington, whether it's Daniels or not. So if

(40:50):
it's Daniels, you know, I'll miss it. The Stimer will
go way up, and I'll just avoid this game. If
it's not, I could see this. He's again down at
two and a half. Three, Like it is all Daniels.
Washington is nothing without Daniels. That's not that talented of
the defense. They're an older team, and I don't think
you can just have someone else step in and replace
what Daniels does. So that Vegas team, they were good

(41:13):
in that game in my opinion, Okay, it was just
all Gino, Like he just failed them in a million
different ways. So another game I'm not going to force
in because of how bad Gino played, and he's another
guy in a new offense with Chip Kelly that he
was not throwing with confidence and had some horrible, horrible
reads in that game against the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (41:33):
So it's a big difference going from the Chargers to Washington.
We know that.

Speaker 4 (41:37):
So uh yeah, it's another game where, like Chad said,
we could be patient with it, see what the injury
news is on Daniels.

Speaker 3 (41:43):
But I really wish I gave you that Sunday night
it was six.

Speaker 4 (41:46):
I looked at it when it was six and I
was like, man, I'm not gonna just take this line
just in case if the Raiders get rolled, this gets
up to seven.

Speaker 3 (41:54):
I should have taken it.

Speaker 4 (41:54):
We should have known something was up with Daniels and
he looked banged up in that game.

Speaker 2 (42:00):
You're Jets at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a seven
point favorite.

Speaker 1 (42:03):
Again, the signals are screaming take the Jets like you
take a team that just got blown out. The number
is going to be inflated. I think the number is
up at ticker two because of what happened last night
with Baker and their ability to come back, and it's
a second week in a row and people having faith
in what Baker can do. We don't know the status

(42:27):
of Justin Fields and whether or not he's going to
be playing because he was being evaluated for a concussion. Honestly,
tyred Taylor in terms of game management and accuracy and
short throws, which is what the Jets are relying on.
He might be an upgrade. So I'm not saying we're

(42:48):
taking the Jets here, but it scares me less than
you think.

Speaker 4 (42:55):
I'd get as a Bears fan. You're a hated Rex quarterback.
But I actually have I have him as at least
a point I believe in my model higher than Taylor.

Speaker 3 (43:05):
So Fields to me is it'd be great if he's
in this.

Speaker 4 (43:08):
But this is really about the number once again, I think,
And yeah, it's I actually kind of love the Jets
on the spot, and I think you're gonna hate it
because it's they got burned from it last week.

Speaker 3 (43:16):
But you can't bet that way. Is it better?

Speaker 4 (43:19):
You kind of got to move on and burn it.
You learn from it. Right, that was a bad read.
But I think we can all agree that was a
bad read because of all the things we've seen with Fields. Right,
he just completely flaked out and was a zero in
that game. And yeah, major questions about this shit's defense.
I'm starting to every day is this season goes on,

(43:39):
as I get more and more respect for Salah and well,
it looks like he might be a defensive genius because
this actually might be a horrible defense on the Jets,
and he was the one that was so good and
made them look so good.

Speaker 3 (43:50):
But the Bucks have injuries, Like we.

Speaker 4 (43:53):
Saw how banged up the offensive line got in that game,
and how Baker was just getting crushed the OL game,
and Baker might be banged up too, So grabbing grab
the sevens as you can.

Speaker 3 (44:02):
I'd grab it right now, some says Jets, Yeah, no
is this.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Simon says, we'll see.

Speaker 3 (44:09):
I guy have another game.

Speaker 4 (44:10):
I'm assuming we both like and if if, if you
there's two other games I really like. But I'm I'm
I'm grabbing this one right now. I'm not gonna make
a Simon says, because I I do see this potentially growing,
like this could go up seven and a half.

Speaker 3 (44:23):
But even if six and a half, people are gonna
hate it.

Speaker 4 (44:27):
I just I don't know how we don't have this
one in the contest.

Speaker 3 (44:31):
It's just gonna we'll see.

Speaker 2 (44:34):
I'm thrilled.

Speaker 3 (44:35):
Yeah, I'm thrilled.

Speaker 4 (44:37):
Other games I know we're gonna love, But like, I
just couldn't get over the fact that the Stummer was
this big and the Bucks do role teams. It does happen,
but they usually play to their competition level and squeak
by and pull out wins. Now you're at it on
top of that them being banged up and you know,
stay with you one of the that's just defense. They

(44:57):
do have a pretty good defensive line in some aspect,
and if the middle of the lines banged up, that's
that's really where they can shine with Quin Williams. So yeah,
I'm glad we're aligned on It was hoping because it's
a couple of seven a halfs dip pop. It's at
seven at a hard rock I'm happy taking the seven. Uh,
just I was gonna make it, Simeon said, Like I said,

(45:17):
it's it came down from the seven a half, so
I'm not going to make it that.

Speaker 3 (45:20):
I do love the seven.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
Do you think Todd Bowles let Nick Chubbs score last
night so he could get the ball back quicker or
do you think that was just a defensive breakdown. If
you look at the play I've seen this online this morning,
it looks like the Bucks basically just let him run
right through them. And it was especially weird since the

(45:44):
Texas had not been able to run the ball all night,
and all of a sudden there's a gaping hole and
the guy can score a touchdown?

Speaker 3 (45:50):
Do you frate it? Yeah? I look the idea and
it was and I agree with that.

Speaker 4 (45:54):
During that game, I thought to myself, Nick Chubb looks
like he has nothing left. And then that one play
he breaks it for what was a t Yeah, twenty
one yards.

Speaker 3 (46:01):
Yeah, I'm with you on that.

Speaker 1 (46:02):
And then it was brilliant because they had three timeouts
and they were either going to bleed their timeouts and
they had to go run down the field or they
had to keep their timeouts and go score a touchdown. Like,
I loved it in the end if that's what he did.
Total Ninja Total total Ninja Indianapolis at Tennessee. Tennessee is
a three and a half point favorite. You called this
one on Sunday night. I used to take the Colts

(46:23):
at plus three, are at minus three. I did take
the Colts. Look, Indianapol's Cults right now are probably the
greatest offense in the history of the NFL. And I
think we don't take a new account the old sort
of tropes Division Dog plus three at home, Like, I

(46:47):
don't think think these those things are actually as relevant
as they used to be.

Speaker 2 (46:56):
And to me, this was really about the running game.

Speaker 1 (46:59):
Like Jonathan Taylor has been magnificent for this team, both
out of the backfield catching the ball and running the ball.
The Titans are allowing the league worst five point four
yards per carry in the first two weeks on defense.
On offense, I mentioned their QB pressure rate is second highest,
while the opponents are blitzing at such a low rate.

(47:22):
It's only twenty third against them in the NFL, so
the gap between the pressure and the blitz is massive.
I feel good about the Cults, even at minus three
and a half.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
I did too.

Speaker 4 (47:39):
My negative view of this one is going to be
something we always fear of, which is a home the
visional dog that is surely surely going to be getting
less than ten percent of the money and the bets.

Speaker 3 (47:55):
This is going to be the biggest need of the
books this week. And I have no doubt.

Speaker 1 (47:58):
This is such a public play, There's no doubt about it.
We are leaning totally.

Speaker 4 (48:03):
Torched by Dallas last week, and literally they were the
same thing. I have the money, ninbers and of the bets,
and I didn't mind it because Dallas was at home,
and even though we were dead than dead, there was
still a little glimmer at that overtime we could have
got to the number. But here, I'm with you, it's
I couldn't believe the number on Sunday night.

Speaker 3 (48:23):
I could not.

Speaker 4 (48:23):
Believe they hung a three, and I said that. I
was like, I'm taking this now because there's only one
way this is going to go. There's no way this
gets the two and a half. If we got to
two and a half, the alarms would be going off
all over the place. That this was a really bad
spots for the cold team. So trying to find angles
for this Titans team cold secondary is banged up.

Speaker 3 (48:44):
Can Daniel Jones keep playing at this pace?

Speaker 4 (48:47):
The man is not not punted, right, They've not punted
this year. This Colts team, I just I can't get
over how well he played, even going back and watching it,
and how well they ran the ball against that Broncos defense,
which we said they were going to take a step
down that Broncos defense, but that's still a really good defense.
So another only only angles I got attack. Really chat,

(49:10):
it is like, Okay, you have a Colts team that
actually plays fast now coming outdoors, playing on grass, and
you have a Tennessee team that is just left for
dead by everybody, including me and Chad, who loved them
just a week ago.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
So just kind of give us pause here. But I
hate it.

Speaker 4 (49:26):
I think we both want to be on the Colts.
But I just gotta I gotta take a step back
on this one. We'll talk about on Thursday. But I know,
I know this is going to be the biggest deed
for the book.

Speaker 3 (49:38):
I just can't.

Speaker 4 (49:38):
I don't know who's betting. I don't know who's betting
Tennessee at this number. Like we said, the Colts, I
feel like I've earned their respect to be at this number,
to be up to six or five on the road
in this divisional game. They just they feel like that
much better of a team. And like you said, the
coaching of Tennessee and the stuff they do it is
just so bad. So yeah, uh, I'll be patient here.

(49:59):
People can tell them all spooked on this one. Even
though I loved it on Sunday, it's I can't. I
can't believe that this hasn't gone up to five six.

Speaker 2 (50:06):
Well, look, you love the number on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (50:08):
Yeah, when I did the research yesterday, I was really
concerned at how much I love the game. It's very
matchup with the Colts nearly made it a Chad Loves
Love nearly and like it just felt. No, that's it's
so chalky. You're setting yourself up to be disappointed. You're
gonna look like an idiot. You can't handle that. It

(50:31):
will make your Sunday miserable. I've already betted at three.
I'm not walking away from that. But geez, Louise, man,
that just feels we'd be walking into it. We'd be
walking into as we used to like to say, oh Horn.

Speaker 4 (50:46):
It's Nesta And I can already see the future where
it's like we have one spot open and we're just like,
let's just throw We're gonna.

Speaker 2 (50:53):
You know what it is. We're gonna get lazy. It's
gonna be like parenting.

Speaker 4 (50:58):
It's like we said, I you said to them, when
you feel easier with the losses? Right, what would you
feel easier losing this bed? Or we taken the Giants
at home against the Chiefs, you know what I mean,
so's it's tough.

Speaker 1 (51:10):
Or by the way, New Orleans plus seven and a
half on the road at Seattle.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
This is one of those games. I talked about that
stat earlier.

Speaker 1 (51:19):
Zero to two against the spread, and the perception is
going to be that you want to back off when
it comes to the Saints.

Speaker 2 (51:27):
Meanwhile, the Seahawks.

Speaker 1 (51:30):
Really played well and hard against the Niners in Week one,
lost in the final moments of the game. Then they
went out and dominated the Steelers and made the Steelers
look really bad. So are the Seahawks? Is the Seahawks
defense great? I do think it's great. They have not
played a defense. The Saints have not played a defense
as good as the Seahawks, yet have the highest QB

(51:52):
pressure rate and the second lowest blitz percentage, so they
are getting pressure with their front four just rushing for
Saints are keeping themselves alive in these games though, and
granted they've been at home, but still like they're making
it hard. This feels so much more trappy than the Colts.

(52:17):
It feels greedy to betting on the to be betting
on the Seahawks at minus seven and a half. Give
me your take. Are we being courageous to love the
Saints here? I feel like you're gonna tell me this,
as Simon says.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
Ooh on the Saints, Yeah no, thank god. Not.

Speaker 4 (52:39):
Almost every pro I've talked to I think is in
alignment with you in this exact spot on the Saints team.
And I think the Saints are in that description of
the one and two against the spread, right they are
totally so you know, they they fit the trends. My
model has at six, so like I should be on
the Saints team.

Speaker 3 (52:59):
But what you do said terrifies me.

Speaker 4 (53:01):
How do the Saints move the ball and score against
the Seahawks defense? And you know, as much as we
want a bad mouth Sam Darnold, you know, I feel
like this is probably a good spot for him with
his offense and the way they can run the ball
against a Saints team that can't really stop the run.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
Let's be honest.

Speaker 4 (53:23):
We have two weeks now and it looks like this
is just a team that simply will struggle all season
against the run.

Speaker 3 (53:29):
So I love the number, Like that's what sucks so much.

Speaker 4 (53:33):
Is like, man, this is an incredible, incredible number, but
I have to be patient, Like I already seen it
right now, I'm looking right now, there's books that have
hit seven. So yeah, clearly, clearly the professional side is
the Saints. I need to just not up and do it,
I'm sure, but I just haven't met it yet, Like

(53:53):
there's other games I've bet heavy this week and this
is not one of them. I've just been watching this
and saying to myself, can this get the eight?

Speaker 3 (54:01):
Can of get day and a half?

Speaker 4 (54:02):
And now I'm looking it's going the other way, so
I might just have to take the seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (54:05):
And I don't think it's getting I don't think it's
going up because the Seahawks, I don't think yet are
sort of enough of a public team, right and because
if you look at the record that are one and one,
and some people are coming to this who are going
to be betting on the weekend, they're going to see
a Seahawks team that is one and one. They're not
going to recognize that. They they beat the Steelers who

(54:27):
are one now one and one, they lost to the Niners,
who everyone thinks are great still, so they're not going
to be a public side, like a heavy public side.
This is a professional game, yeah, and a professional number.

Speaker 3 (54:42):
And this is just like that time say this is
gonna be Presisus shows.

Speaker 1 (54:46):
We're gonna end up betting the Saints. I don't know
if it'll be in the contest, but it'll be. It'll
be attempting number seven and a half. Seven and a half,
all right, the Broncos are one of those teams that
fits that model of having yet to cover, and so
the perception a little bit off. I don't have a
great read on this one. I think the Broncos defense
might be overrated. They're getting a lot of pressure, but
they're also blitzing fifty percent of the time. So I

(55:11):
think the Chargers are kind of good. And they they
backed it up last night after a week one against
the Chiefs. So two and a half is a phishing
number to me. I don't really want anything to do
with this.

Speaker 4 (55:26):
Simon says, giving me Denver, love love, love, love love
Denver in the spot, and I get to fear what
you're saying about this Chargers team.

Speaker 3 (55:36):
Like they have looked really good.

Speaker 4 (55:38):
I mean, Herbert looks all world looks incredibly talented and
dream dream start for them, right, two starts, one in Brazil,
then in Vegas in your division.

Speaker 3 (55:49):
You win them both.

Speaker 4 (55:50):
They're coming back home a chance to go three and
oh in the division to start this season.

Speaker 3 (55:55):
Chargers will win this game, but it won't be buying
more than two chet.

Speaker 4 (55:58):
This is such a number to play such a spot
to play in this Broncos team, who I was banging
the drum to start the season.

Speaker 3 (56:06):
They were eight to oh or was it nine h
eight to oh?

Speaker 4 (56:09):
I'm pretty sure bo Nicks last year as a favorite
against the spread, he was perfect.

Speaker 3 (56:14):
Let's see this year, Jed I went too as a favorite.

Speaker 4 (56:17):
So the public is totally totally done with the Broncos,
and this is exactly where I step in, like this
is my favorite bets where it's like you line it up.
Last week loved the Colts and I knew no matter
what the number was going to be on the Broncos,
I was going to probably.

Speaker 3 (56:32):
Love them even better. Like I have him modeled to
pick them.

Speaker 4 (56:35):
In the Chargers, I do have the great the Broncos
greated higher than this Chargers team because people aren't realizing this.
This Chargers team is banged up today. Chargers team that
you know, they've lost key guys on offensive line. That's
a big deal, and they've gotten away with it somehow
because you know, Herbert's so talented and harball and even

(56:56):
their defense I cannot get around go to their defensive
played two weeks in, but you couldn't be bigger of
a letdown spot against a very desperate, angry Broncos team
that's been undervalued by the general public right now, like this,
people had the Broncos is the best team, as one
of the best team visions in the ANFC. That hasn't changed, right,
They just they haven't played well. They had a flukey

(57:18):
loss last week, and now the lines punish him for that.
This probably should have been one, maybe a pick if
they win. Instead it's two and a half. I mean,
if you're lucky, you can find a three, But I
think professionals are gonna have models like me, and they're
gonna come in and hit this no matter what if
it touches three.

Speaker 3 (57:33):
So no chance we get three and a half in
contest if we do.

Speaker 4 (57:37):
What a gift that would be on this Broncos team
against the Chargers that are just I don't know what's more.
Who's more peaked out right now? Th Emmer, Green Bay.
It's it's close, though I think it might be the Chargers.
This is just an egregious line for a really tough
divisional game. So yeah, it's uh, it's it's it's it's
shocking that you weren't too confident on this Broncos. So

(57:58):
I thought you were gonna be all in fading this
Chargers team after last night.

Speaker 1 (58:02):
Well, look, I haven't had a chance to watch the
game because I, you know, go to sleep at nine o'clock.

Speaker 2 (58:08):
Yeah, and so it didn't start until ten.

Speaker 1 (58:11):
And this morning, when I was rowing, I decided to
watch the Browns because I was a little bit more
intrigued and figured I could catch up on the Chargers.
I was pretty disappointed in the Broncos. I've been disappointed
in their defense. I'm disappointed in the underlying metrics I
see week one, I know, but against the calls, Like

(58:32):
I just can't believe how much they have to blitz
to get any kind of pressure, and so that that
is concerning to me.

Speaker 4 (58:40):
Well, there's there is one three out there, so you
might you could be patient. If you won, I would
just grab it two and a half now, in case
it comes down.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
I'll roll with you on it if you feel that
strongly about it.

Speaker 3 (58:50):
It's on the general public. But if you want to
bet it, I'm happy for you to get on the party.
It's it's a nice number and a nice spot.

Speaker 1 (58:57):
So maybe this this next game, the Cowboys at the
Bears the line is one and a half. The first
move was in the Cowboys direction. The Bears are favored
by a one and a half. This is, you know,
train wreck of expectations meets the Mismanagement Bowl, right Like
Jadavian Clowney isn't coming in to save this Cowboys team.

(59:22):
All I read about from the Bears is they're encouraged by.

Speaker 2 (59:30):
Caleb Williams progress.

Speaker 1 (59:32):
He made better plays, he got his feet set, he
was in his twitchy with his eyes, all these kinds
of things, looking for anything to make them feel good
in a blowout against the Lions.

Speaker 2 (59:49):
The Bears fit the model, you know what I mean, Like.

Speaker 1 (59:56):
The team that hasn't covered so much Animouz City and
negativity against them.

Speaker 3 (01:00:02):
Yeah, it's well for me.

Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
You kind of have to back the Bears if you're
going to play this game. But at one and a half,
it feels sketchy, like I'm not loving one and a
half as a number lately.

Speaker 3 (01:00:14):
Oh my god, this is on what Simon says. I
left it for you.

Speaker 4 (01:00:17):
So either one this Simon says, or Denver Simon says,
I love them both. Yeah, Bears, you have to bet
this one. If you're a fan of this show gotta
do it, like Chad's so right, it's all bad, it's
all negative. Right after this Bears team felt like an
incredible fluky loss week one, And I do put the

(01:00:38):
blame obviously on Caleb for these first two weeks in
some aspects, but it's hard to blame them really for
that Lions game. But they just they ran into a buzzsaw,
like it just felt like every everything was taken out
on them from Detroit on defensive side and the offensive side.
And Caleb is my only true hesitation here where it's
like if you if Sunday morning, You're just like, I

(01:01:00):
can't trust Caleb.

Speaker 3 (01:01:01):
I don't believe in them.

Speaker 4 (01:01:02):
Yet I can see where you're coming from, just because
I've watched both games twice and both times it's like
you see the raw talent, but you see all the
stupid shit. He needs to just grow out of the
holding on to the ball for too long, not making
the read and just making the throw and trying to
look for the other reads where it's like you don't

(01:01:22):
have five six seconds back to to run around. So
for Kayla's weaknesses, Dallas to me can't exploit it. They
don't have guys on that front that are really terrifying
in the past RUS aspects. So organizationally, I feel like
CHAT should hope they go oh for three because maybe
they fire the general manager.

Speaker 3 (01:01:42):
They just gave an extension to food. Didn't deserve it
in any way, but.

Speaker 4 (01:01:46):
Just an incredible unique spot on the Bears team that
Chad talked about it.

Speaker 3 (01:01:51):
It's like the over two stuff.

Speaker 4 (01:01:53):
All that is a big deal, but it's also just
pub perception, right this number should be two and a
half three Bears.

Speaker 3 (01:02:01):
Honestly, like I haven't modeled at two and a half.

Speaker 4 (01:02:03):
Personally, I think it should be three. It's one live
right now at hard Rock here in Jersey, so it's
come down.

Speaker 3 (01:02:10):
It's minus one right now and the Bear So.

Speaker 4 (01:02:13):
The public and the professionals might be lining up on
the Cowboys, and I honestly kind of love it. It's like,
I can't believe they're missing this one on this Bears
team that I think we'll be able to move the
ball offensively against obviously this Dallas defense, but defensively.

Speaker 3 (01:02:27):
I know you guys just lost your all pro.

Speaker 4 (01:02:28):
Corner, but you'd like to think there's a way they
can scheme up. They can take away the passing game
and try to make this Cowboys team just run the
ball because we've seen it now, that's that's the only
way to really shut down that offense. In Yeah, it's
we've seen this. You talked about you have the oh
for two teams zero to two against the spread. The
reason that sixty percent exists is just because football is

(01:02:52):
such an incredibly desperate sport, and this, to me, is
going to be such a hungry, desperate spot of any
team I could think of.

Speaker 3 (01:02:59):
I think are number one, where if.

Speaker 4 (01:03:03):
They're over three, then they know their season is officially
over and it's all come crashing down on them.

Speaker 3 (01:03:08):
So I love the Bears at this number.

Speaker 4 (01:03:11):
I love the fact that I'm checking the charts right now,
and that's what I love to this week. I'll be
in the books talking different people. I keep a tally
of these certain games. I can't imagine how many people
are going to say they they're on the Bears this
week with us. So it's just another great spot, gross
spot that our fans are gonna hate.

Speaker 3 (01:03:27):
But you gotta bet got to tick the Bears here.

Speaker 1 (01:03:30):
You're not wrong about the Bears and the GM Ryan Pols.
I feel like he got an extension because he won
the press release. You know what I mean, Like anytime
there's like a move within corporate management, a press release
goes out or a memo goes out. And we also
used to do this idiospan like who won the memo?

(01:03:51):
Who like looks like they really got a lot of
good stuff and are in a new position of power.
He won the memo. The last two years, getting Caleb,
getting Ben Johnson, the Bears are so mismanaged, and they're
so incompetent, and the ownership group is so bad, which
now everybody is understanding because there's been so much reporting

(01:04:12):
out there, Like they gave that extension because they finally
had someone within management getting good publicity who looked like
he was doing the right things, and it turns out
it could be all the wrong things.

Speaker 2 (01:04:25):
We don't know this yet.

Speaker 1 (01:04:26):
Yeah, certainly he didn't deserve He did not deserve yet
the extension. We should have seen what actually happened with
some of these assets that he's gone out and bought.

Speaker 3 (01:04:38):
And I think you nail the part of.

Speaker 4 (01:04:41):
He got that extension because he got incredibly lucky that
Carolina took Bryce Young and that CJ Strout and totally
knew their picks that they've given back to him, right
if they taken CJ. I could see even if it
wasn't that big of a difference people think because how
bad the Panthers ran as an organization, they wasn't the
game of the number one pick. I don't think he
would have been a number one pick, Caroline want to

(01:05:02):
give that out. I think they would have finished Polly
five or six, whatever would have been. But just this
past year, I couldn't stomach the fact that you passed
on Warren the tight end and took that guy Courtland
and Lowland.

Speaker 2 (01:05:17):
Coaston. Was it loveless? Lovelace Loveland?

Speaker 1 (01:05:21):
Don't. Yeah, here's the point, dude, you just it's like
you just dipped into the Chicago Bears French chat because
we're all like, where's the tight end that everyone had
been saying all training camp is amazing? And meanwhile, Ty
Warren is looking like the kind of all pro who

(01:05:42):
just runs over people for the next ten years.

Speaker 3 (01:05:45):
He's a stunt.

Speaker 4 (01:05:46):
So I'm feeling Bears fans, but I know they don't
want to hear it, but this is this is a
great spot to back of your team. And bet on
the Bears, so double misery if they lose. But I'm
telling you, I love the Bears.

Speaker 3 (01:05:58):
In this spot.

Speaker 2 (01:06:00):
Loveland.

Speaker 1 (01:06:00):
By the way, I'm getting so upset, I'm losing focus.
Look all right, you mentioned desperation. You mentioned a team
that hasn't covered. I'm going to get to that in
one second, but first let's talk about Arizona San Francisco.
San Francisco is a short home favorite one and a half.
I think I lead Niners here because of the coaching advantage,

(01:06:22):
some pretty major injuries in the cards secondary I think
that maybe they are being I think that mac Jones
could potentially be undervalued here. Don't have strong opinions yet
on this one, but don't hate the Niners at minus
one and a.

Speaker 3 (01:06:41):
Half, yeah, no, read on it. I haven't bet it.

Speaker 4 (01:06:46):
You know, I honestly thought my model to have Arizona
is the favorite here. It's right along with the books
that I literally have the four an Arizona minus one.
So no edge or really no value to my model
on the numb and I feel like I'm like you,
and I'm trying to break this one down and try
to find an edge. It's a lot of it honestly

(01:07:06):
points to me liking the Cardinals and then being a
little undervalue just because they didn't cover last week, and
if they maintained.

Speaker 3 (01:07:14):
That blowout, probably are the favorite in this spot.

Speaker 4 (01:07:18):
And I feel like this number is shaded towards this
forty nine Ers team that yeah, mac Jones did step
in Mick throws.

Speaker 3 (01:07:25):
But I don't know that Saints team.

Speaker 4 (01:07:27):
Man, they just there were so many different times where
they just had bat penalties or just gave the way
to this forty Niners team where Arizona surprisingly has been
pretty well coached this year. But Chad said at the top,
the secondary of this Cardinals team got ravaged by injuries
at the end of that game.

Speaker 3 (01:07:42):
So another game I'm not going to rush into.

Speaker 4 (01:07:46):
Tempted again, tempted because you can get you can get
Kyler right now plus one ZH five as a dog
on the road. But I'll be patient, wait for the
injury report and see what's what with this Arizona defense,
because I think we're on different sides.

Speaker 3 (01:07:58):
I get your love for the forty nine.

Speaker 4 (01:08:01):
I think they won big on the mac jone that
we've seen the backup quarterback the one week he comes
in and wins the next week. You don't want to
bet on the back of the win two weeks in
a rowda. So it's an interesting spot where I can't believe.
I think Arizona's gonna be three noh to start the season.

Speaker 3 (01:08:16):
But here we are.

Speaker 1 (01:08:19):
You mentioned desperation, you mentioned Hungary, you mentioned a team
that can't be zero to three, you mentioned a team
that needs a win. I'll add for its lungs, I'm
giving you a team that has not covered the spread
that the perception is way way down. I'm talking about
the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the New York Football Giants.

(01:08:44):
They are minus five and a half point favorus right
now Sunday Night Football.

Speaker 2 (01:08:50):
Simon Hunter is the sharp? Is it square?

Speaker 1 (01:08:54):
Can the Chiefs be undervalued right now? As favorite? It's
talk to me the.

Speaker 3 (01:09:03):
Five and a half got to listen on some days.

Speaker 4 (01:09:05):
That was sharp because we talked about how that number,
to me just was not going to exist, and then
I was going to get bet up. I'm looking at
hard Rock right now in New Jersey chat it is six.

Speaker 3 (01:09:17):
So the number has moved to six.

Speaker 4 (01:09:21):
There's one public book or two public books out there
still at five and a half. Hopefully by the time
you hear this you can get it, because I think
you're leaning towards the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:09:29):
Here, Simon. Chad loves Love, Chad loves the Kansaity.

Speaker 1 (01:09:33):
Chiefs at five and a half, though I would still
play it at six, like, because you know, at five
and a half, I'm winning. At six. At six, I'm pushing.
I think the Chiefs are primed to really pull off
a mastermind trick here, So I like the Chiefs at
five and a half or six. Chad Loves Love, Chad loves.

Speaker 4 (01:09:55):
The Chiefs, and you might get the five and a
half again down the road if you're hearing this and
your book doesn't have anymore, just because the professionals are
going to keep coming on this Giants team.

Speaker 3 (01:10:06):
They love them.

Speaker 4 (01:10:08):
They're there, darling, And this is obviously a Chief spot
we talked about winning and hopefully covering, But my god,
this is six and a half, which a couple of
books have hit on this Giant side. So this is
a six and a half home dog in a Sunday
night game that no one's going to betting the Giants. Everyone,

(01:10:29):
all public is going to be on the chief because
they're like me and Chad where it's like they're not
going zero to three. This Chiefs team is not going
on three like this is. We got a hard talk
coming up about survivor and this might be one of them.
But yeah, I'm with Chad like the five and a half,
that's like we said something that's great value, like this
should be six or six and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:10:48):
So I would take the Chiefs.

Speaker 4 (01:10:50):
I know they have all these injuries and all that,
but it's really were really bet on just what we've
seen with Andy against bad teams. Also Spags in this
defense against this Giants offense that looked like world beaters
against Dallas, but you saw that they're really not right.
It's all Russ thrown fifty to fifty balls downfielding and

(01:11:10):
they were hitting against Dallas like wide open hitting too.
It's not going to be like that against the Spags defense.
So I think we're in alignment here. But just be
careful out there people if you're if you're only options
of six and a half, I would not take the
Chiefs minus six and a half. I just I've been
burned so many times by my homes. Once he crosses
that six numbers, So that to me that's going to

(01:11:33):
I'll try to find more trends on it. But it's
a key number to six, and I think here it
matters because the books knew what they were doing. Like
I said Sunday, I couldn't believe they hung the five
and a half two books out there even going live.
One of the books just moved to six. There's one
book left at five and a half. It's it's just

(01:11:54):
a good number. So I think we line up on
the same side of the Chiefs side, but it's it's unfortunate.

Speaker 3 (01:11:59):
Probably gona be six and a half our contest.

Speaker 1 (01:12:01):
Yeah, I'm still seeing five and a half and six,
so I don't feel bad saying that it's five and
a half. I'm taking the five and a half Chad
Love's love. That's what I'm doing. I feel like I
deserve it because it's available, because it's available in a
lot of places. Yeah, last game Detroit at Baltimore, Baltimore's

(01:12:27):
moved down from six to five and a half. Is
the money on my football game? Simon, do you agree
with the move? Is it sharp or square to be
taking the Lions right now? Which is what the early
move the professional betters have decided to do.

Speaker 4 (01:12:46):
It's obviously sharp side this line side, because I did
think it was gonna go up, right. I think a
couple of books opened at six. Yeah, like you just said,
now it's down to four and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:12:55):
Wicked number. Wicked wicked number. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:13:00):
And I think this is really just because of this
Ravens defense that you just said it that that Browns
team was moving the ball.

Speaker 3 (01:13:10):
It was really on Joe Flackkoon. We talked last year.

Speaker 4 (01:13:15):
This Ravens team did struggle early the year defensively. It
took or a little bit to get these guys right.
And I think he's like my age. I think he's
thirty four to thirty five their DC, their coordinator, which
doesn't matter. Age doesn't matter, but it still shows he's
a little green behind the ears. And it's like you've
seen it a little bit here two years in a row,
that the defense just comes out slow and they don't

(01:13:35):
look great. And this Detroit team showed that they.

Speaker 3 (01:13:41):
Were still the same old offense.

Speaker 4 (01:13:42):
I suppose Chad, so I don't know what to do
because the move the line moves so much, right, I
did like the lines, I mean hard rock right now,
you can still get the five and a half here
in Jersey, so it's like, I'll grab that number. But
I'm shocked, shocked it's moved. Oh it's five now Jersey Detroit.
I'm shocked to move so quickly to four and a half.
So their expecting money is coming to the lines and

(01:14:05):
I'm looking the splits right now and it's all Ravens money.
So you know, that's that's pretty telling that the books
have moved even though so I'm taking tons of tickets
and tons of bets on this Raven side. They've moved it,
you know, a full point and a half now, down
from six to four and a half. So we might
end up the lines here like if this, if this
keeps the moving, yeah, I'm gonna pretty entice because four

(01:14:29):
and a half I'm taking the lions.

Speaker 3 (01:14:30):
I'll still grab it.

Speaker 4 (01:14:30):
But you know, at what point does this flip to
a Raven's a Raven's number, because we.

Speaker 3 (01:14:36):
Know what laws.

Speaker 1 (01:14:38):
If you're taking the four and a half, if you're
taking the four and a half, then you're gonna take
the five, and you're gonna take the five and a half,
a lot of which is still available.

Speaker 2 (01:14:46):
Here's what's interesting about the Ravens. So I gave the.

Speaker 1 (01:14:50):
At the beginning of the show. We'll take this full circle.
I gave all the stats for the Browns in that
Ravens game. Yeah, the flip side of that is that
this game was ten to three at halftime. The Ravens
scored on a putt return that led to a short
field in a field goal. They blocked a punt that

(01:15:11):
led to a short field and a touchdown. Interception led
to a short field and a touchdown. Fumble return for
a touchdown. Brown's going on fourth down end of the game,
don't make it short field and a touchdown for Baltimore.
That's thirty one points off of Brown's in competence in
a game that they won forty one to seventeen. So

(01:15:33):
this defense has been middle of the road when you
look at the Lions, the Packers may be a great defense.
We don't know yet, but we know that the Bears
are amongst the league's worst defense. So you're asking yourself,
where are the Lions right now? I would expect a
competitive matchup. I feel like five and a half is

(01:15:54):
still too high for this game. This was going to
be my other Chad Loves Love and I decided I
need to go with the more desperate team.

Speaker 4 (01:16:03):
Yeah, no, I'm glad we're both lined up in the
Lions because I could see the Ravens angle inside of it.
But I do agree if you dive more into that game,
and I mean, I can't leave you went back and
watch it.

Speaker 3 (01:16:14):
I didn't even need to go back and watch it, but.

Speaker 4 (01:16:15):
Because I just I mean, it was like, that's a
painful watch watching that Browns second half against that Ravens team,
especially you had money on them.

Speaker 3 (01:16:22):
But yeah, I think we're both in alignment of the offense.

Speaker 4 (01:16:27):
As great as it looked against the Bills, they obviously
couldn't run the ball at all against Cleveland.

Speaker 3 (01:16:34):
They just moved to the pass. And again that's why
the Moore is the early MVP right now. He just
does it all.

Speaker 4 (01:16:38):
But yeah, that's really about the number, and I think
we're both in agreement that the lines, if they're getting rolled,
I still think they could find a way to the
back door, keep it close. And I believe the last
time they played the Ravens might have beat them by
like thirty something crazy at home in this exact spot.

Speaker 3 (01:16:53):
So I'll dive more too. The numbers of trends in
this one.

Speaker 4 (01:16:56):
But as we city right now, I think we're in
alignment that we both like the early line value, especially
five and a half before it moves down to four
and half, which is we both think that's the way
it's going, all right.

Speaker 1 (01:17:05):
So let's recap a little bit because this we'll talk
about on Thursday. We're definitely keeping a close eye on
Cleveland at Green Green Bay at Cleveland, Cleveland's plus eight
and a half right now. We're keeping an eye on
the Steelers and the Patriots, definitely keeping a close eye
on the Eagles, keeping a close eye on the Jets,

(01:17:28):
the Colts. Are we keeping an eye on the Saints
that we feel like the Saints will Gota. We're keeping
an eye on the Saints. Simon says is Denver plus
two and a half. Simon also loves the Bears minus
one and a half. Kansas City it's at five and
a half or six. That's Chad Love's love. And we're

(01:17:50):
keeping an eye on Detroit plus five and a half.
I covered it all on Thursday, we'll we'll narrow it down,
we'll recap where we think we're lining for our final five.
You for Sunday, We'll get into Survivor. We'll get into
brass Balls, we will get into Rock and a Hard Place,
Hard Rock, Better.

Speaker 2 (01:18:07):
Of the Week.

Speaker 1 (01:18:07):
We will get into our moneyline, Favorite and Rob in
our money line, underog Round, Robin Sharp versus Square.

Speaker 2 (01:18:12):
All that good stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:18:14):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back on Thursday.

Speaker 3 (01:18:20):
Oo.

Speaker 1 (01:18:21):
Man, it's going to be exciting Thursday. Watch or we're
listening on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe
to the channel. Also download us with Spotify, Apple Pose,
wherever you get your pause rate review subscribe this five stars.

Speaker 2 (01:18:33):
Say whatever you want listen.

Speaker 1 (01:18:34):
I know I'd be saying this, but we want to
get a huge, huge, huge amount of five star reviews
and comments before we start reading. The comments back best
and funniest in the spirit of the show.

Speaker 2 (01:18:47):
You know what to say. Uh, swag will come your way.
I just did that right here. Until next time, I
love you,

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