September 22, 2025 • 51 mins
Chad and Simon give their instant reactions to the NFL Week 3 results. Which players stood out in Week 3? Which teams are true contenders this NFL season? They discuss all the big games: the Philadelphia Eagles' 4th-quarter comeback against the Los Angeles Rams, the Cleveland Browns shocking the Packers, the Chicago Bears beating the Dallas Cowboys, and more. Plus, they give their early leans for NFL Week 4. All this and more in today's Sharp or Square live reaction show!
All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet.
2:00 - Intro6:26 - Packers at Browns Reaction13:14 - Rams at Eagles Reaction21:50 - Jets at Buccaneers Reaction25:58 - Texans at Jaguars Reaction29:25 - Broncos at Chargers Reaction42:24 - Panthers at Falcons Reaction46:11 - Cowboys at Bears Reaction49:10 - Early Leans49:16 - Commanders at Falcons50:06 - Seahawks at Cardinals50:58 - Jets at Dolphins51:58 - Saints at Bills53:08 - Eagles at Buccaneers54:04 - Vikings at Steelers (Dublin)55:55 - Packers at Cowboys56:02 - Bears at Raiders56:41 - Colts at Rams57:49 - Chiefs at Giants
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock Beat.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I
am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Mike Padre, professional Better, Simon Hunter, l O.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Simon God, how are you feeling?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Oh my god? What the freak? Actually? I think today
every one of our bats was in the middle of
all of this chaos. Today we had the Eagles minus
three and a half might be one of the greatest
miracle wins and covers either of us have ever had.
(00:55):
We had the Jets similarly, earning a cup off of
a blocked kick just as the Eagles won their cover,
the Browns miracle wins, somewhat miracle cover, Texans giving it
away with turnovers in the red zone twice with chances
to take the lead or tie the game, and then
(01:18):
the Broncos making so many penalties and so many mental
mistakes they give up the game. They don't cover. The
scriptwriters for the NFL are on fire right now. Just
give them the freaking Emmy, because like insane insane three
and two day for us. And the truth is, until
(01:39):
about four pm we were headed for one and three.
So you know, brother, you were way too I texted
at one point, I'm like, what the freak is happening?
You just wrote back football. You didn't even give me
any exclamation points, like yeah, this is how expected it
to go.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
It is. It's sixty minutes.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
It's like I never get too high, too low until
the final whistle is blown. Because football is I say
it every time, it's a really stupid game played with
a weirdly shaped ball and it makes no sense like
the bounces. Today we just talked about it. Did we
get unlucky in those Denver and Houston games, Sure, but
(02:18):
it's like we got lucky in other games just how
it is right the bounce has went our way in
the other games, the other two games they didn't, and
we try as best as we can just to that
the numbers. Because it's like it's such a stupid chaotic sport.
We talk all the time like Survivor. These first three
four weeks, there's no rhythm to the season. All these
(02:39):
teams are working through stuff, trying to find their own identity.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
It's just chaos and can't say it.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Enough where it's like you feel so confident, there's a
reason you think it's a good number, and it's not
a good number, right they're sucking in and a couple
of lines today. You know, we talked about it all
day and they came through, and you know, we just
were joking before it came on. Got Arizona forty Niners
game landed right on one. The spread was one and
a half. Like the books, they're pretty locked in right now.
(03:08):
They're making some really really sharp lines. So I know
people lose their minds on our Sunday morning show us
agonizing over these numbers, but it matters, like these games
are just so tight, so close. I know there's a
couple of blow outs today, but a lot of these
other games are just wild craziness down to the final snap.
Even teams again the Eagles Jets, like cheat was saying,
(03:30):
they were both down by like twenty points and they
came back somehow covered both of them.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
So it's the best why we love betting it.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
And you just at the end of the day, like
we say, don't get too emotional that the number. Like
you said, I was going crazy, but I don't know
what to say. The other thing that was just football.
You're like basically looking for what's happening. It's just it's
a really stupid game, and weird bounces happened.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
All right. At the end of the show, we're gonna
we're gonna have our early leans, We're gonna answer questions
from those watching, will respond to comments from those watching live.
But first let's get into it. Let's talk about Let's
start with green Bay at Cleveland, because that was one
Cleveland was an eight and a half point dog, and
(04:12):
literally on Tuesday we talked about this game and I said,
of course we like Cleveland. My biggest concern is that
Cleveland can lose this game ten to nothing and its
defense will have been brilliant and they will not have covered.
And until there were three minutes and forty five seconds left,
(04:32):
Cleveland was gonna lose this game ten nothing. And then
they score thirteen points in the final three minutes and
forty five seconds, all because of their defense. The last
thirteenth the last ten points, a pick interception of Jordan
Love returned to the five y score a touchdown field
(04:54):
go on a off of a blocked kick after a
block kick to win the game. Here's my question for you.
I wonder if you noticed this as well. The Browns
when they scored that field goal, I think they had
like a first and goal from the one, and they
had multiple plays in the red zone inside the ten
(05:15):
actually where they couldn't get the ball into the end zone,
and there were penalties back and forth. But the last
penalty that mattered was a chop block on the Browns
that moved them from like the one to the fifteen
or twenty or something like that, and they couldn't ever
get close enough to make it logical to go forward
on fourth down. I think that saved our cover because
(05:37):
if they otherwise, they're going forward on fourth down from
the one yard line and they're not getting it and
we're still down ten to nothing, and who knows how
that game ends. That's how I looked at that chop
block penalty on the Browns, that it actually did us
a favor.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Yeah, I mean, love love the game, love the call.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Really really fun watch, and I mean I'm sure it
was really painful if everyone watching it. But my whole life,
my whole time, the whole time was just keep it close.
All we need is three. That's my whole mentali the
whole time. Even when it was, like you said, do mcgloom,
they're up ten, it's like they're still in this position,
like green Bay is letting them hang around. And we
talked this morning, there's always just one game in week
(06:17):
three on a seven and a half point favorite that
somehow loses outright, and it's you look back and it's
the stupidest, one of the dumbest games of the year.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
That was a very stupid win. Right.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
It's I don't know how many simulations everyone's computer druns,
but I usually run ten thousand per game. That's a
five five out a ten thousand chance of happening. Like
like you just said, the final three minutes, it was
just all negative to green Bay, really all positive the
Browns in any way you could think of, Like you said,
they really couldn't pass the ball, and you know, I
(06:49):
think it's junkins like they brought in the running back,
the rookie kid and a couple of huge runs are
really kind of shifted their all offense and kind of
got green Bay back on their heels. Because, like we
talked about, going to the game, green Bay's defense can
were pretty dominant. We really just really relied on that
front of the Browns against a banged up Green Bay
O line, and it showed like it's Green Bay. It
(07:11):
was incomforable the whole game, and uh yeah that was
you look back on, just an interesting line. I don't
get why some books held it in a half. The
seven and half made sense, right, that was a good line,
good value, But we needed that as betters. I just
need to see a big dog win outright at home
in a stupid way, because that's that's how it is
(07:33):
in football. Like every week there's always gonna be one
of those random ones. In last week, me and Chad
both got away with one of the Cowboys Cardinals. The
favorites usually don't win those. It just doesn't work that way.
It did this week. Like we said, we had crazy
bounces in Yeah, this was a game I felt like
you felt sick about in the morning that we had
to do it, and I was like, I know we
(07:54):
might be stepping in it, but this is what we do.
We can't help ourselves. This is such a good number.
And yeah, the rare opportunity that Joe Flacco puts up
basically zero and we don't just cover. We went outright
against what the number two, number three team in the
entire NFC, So pretty crazy whin to cover?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah, listen, I believe I said on Thursday, if you recall,
if the Browns don't cover this game, I don't think
we can ever bet a big underdog with a great
defense at home. Again, it's over, like that trend, that
philosophy that best of the number closing line value, it's
(08:36):
all over if the Browns don't at least cover this game.
So I'm glad they allowed us to continue to bet
against a philosophy that we wholly believe in. This defense
is so good, and I was doing the math in
my head. I just feel bad for Miles Garrett. I
feel bad for Denzo Ward. I feel bad for the
(08:58):
entire for Jim Schwartz because they're three years away from
being playoff contenders if they get a quarterback they think
can make a difference, if that quarterback is not already
on their roster, because let's say Joe Flacco is the
quarterback the rest of the year. Kevin Stefanski has kept
(09:19):
himself from bringing in Dylan Gabriel when the offense is
doing nothing he's clearly saying our defense is good enough,
someone's going to make a mistake. I don't want it
to be us. We're going to continue to run the ball.
We're going to find those opportunities and we will find
a way to manufacture points. But then, what are they
doing next year? Are they drafting a quarterback? If so,
(09:40):
where are they getting a quarterback in the draft? That
quarterback probably won't be very good in his first year,
so then maybe he's good in the second year. So
all of a sudden, the window for how good this
defense is in these players, they're three years away. Like
it's such a waste of what could be an historically
great defense.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
The Browns, for interest, don't dwell on the Browns, Dad,
don't worry about what the Browns are about to do
a quarterback. Don't don't even use any space in your
brain for because it doesn't.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
I just feel bad for Baker. They had the guy,
he had a bad injury.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
They overreacted, let him walk, And that's what bull just
a brutal sport. You just it's so hard not to
overthink things. And yeah, I'm right there with you. They've
wasted Miles Garrett's entire career. But he's happy. He got
his money. That's what at the end of the day,
that's what he wanted. That's why he stayed.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
They really did waste his entire career. They get with
the brought. The Browns management and ownership are getting what
they deserve because Baker Mayfield, he just wins. Okay, so
they're getting what they deserve. They walked away from the
guy that could have been the franchise changer for them.
Uh all right. The other game, Oh my god, Rams
(10:55):
at Eagles all week long, beginning at last night, last
Sunday night, a week ago. I loved the Eagles. You
loved the Eagles. I really believed that they just had
an unleash their offense, that they were being conservative, taking
(11:17):
advantage of their strengths. I believe their defense was great.
I believe that the Rams defense was overrated against a
Texas team that we'll talk about cannot score, cannot move
the ball, and against Titan's team that isn't very good
right now, I thought they would just dominate this game,
and instead they got dominated until you know, the second
(11:39):
series of the third quarter. What the freak happened? Why
did they all of a sudden change their game plan,
and while like, do you think here's my question, do
you think that the change in the game plan was
effective because of something the Rams had done or should
they have been doing this the whole time?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Honestly, I think it was just a Lane Johnson injury.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Like he went out, Yeah, that changed everything.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Yeah, they had their first opening drive touchdown it and
I think they punted or had three and outs to
their next like five possessions.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
And by the way, on those possessions, Lane Johnson's replacement
got bulldozer and Jalen Hurtz could not get the ball
over his hands and got sacked, and it was.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Crushing, missing open blocks and letting guys just tee off
on hurts like it was a disaster. I know coaches
coach speakers like, well, there's no real adjustments at halftime.
This is the perfect example of you saw the adjustments
made to the offensive line and whatever Stout did, they
made it work. Like it's you know, twenty six to seven,
what eleven minutes twelve minutes left in the third.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Off of a fumble on the opening drive. Yes, in
the third quarter.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's dire, and.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
I try to beat the drum about it, but people
don't want to hear it because I'm an Eagles fan,
but hurts he'd he doesn't look like Herbert, he'll never
throw the ball like Herbert. But he has something that
just a handful of guys have, which is this absurd
confidence when they're down like he was here, that he's
still the best player on the best team and they
(13:14):
can come back in any situation. And I won't lie.
I thought it was a dead bet, bad bet.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Like of course it was a dead bet.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
Everything is going wrong in that first half in the
sense that I feel like every kick return the Rams
were at the thirty five forty, where the Eagles are
at their own ten, their own fifteen. They could not
throughout the kickoff and they just could run it. I
think they're average six or seven yards per play in
that first half For the Eagles, I think had their
lowest output in ten years. I think they had forty
(13:44):
yards in the first half. So yeah, total luck getting
the cover in the win. But like we say all
the time, you just play the number. It never made sense.
Why was it three and a half? Anyone in their
grandma could have told you the Rams had looked better
through two weeks and something was wrong with the Eagles
(14:04):
offense and tried saying they've been playing possum, that they
just that's the style they play because they don't need
to put the ball downfield. There's no point to it
if they don't, if there's no reason to do it,
there's no force to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Why would you do it?
Speaker 3 (14:19):
In this game, Hertz was forced to do it and
you know, shut up in a big way because those
like we said, the Rams front four were teeing off
on him. They were really dominant the offensive line. And yeah, that's, uh,
it sucks we have to fade the Eagles next week.
But like, man, that's that's good. That's that's probably the
best of all the teams were going to talk about
that's the best night of any team, because you know,
(14:41):
that was a spot right that Rams team came out
and looked like they've been pissed off for six months
in the offseason thinking about beating up this team.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
And uh, rare, rare, rare time. That was a two.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
I think they had two blocked field goals and like
Chet said, the final block, Jordan Davis picks it up runs.
You know, was that seventy yards JAD and we get
we get the stupid backdoor cover.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Yeah, I don't know that like it ended, the score
ended where we thought it would. I don't know that
we can take a ton of credit for the game
as much as we can just take credit for the
fact we won in an unexpected fashion, in a way
that you almost never I don't I don't know that
(15:29):
anyone's ever won a game off of a covered a
game off of a blocked kick like that. I had
actually stopped watching when they you know, I had the
four box on. I forgot what other games were on
at that point. And for those who were watching live, apologies,
Simon's having some camera issues, but you can still hear
him the whole time. But I had moved on to
(15:53):
the other games that were sort of at the end,
and I sort of just saw Jordan Davis running and
I thought for a second showing a replay of something
that I missed during the game, and then I realized,
holy crap, he's not gonna fall down. This is actually live,
And it's rare that you get someone having fun in
(16:14):
football and doing the fun thing and just going for
the full touchdown and then it ends up paying off
for us. I don't know, man, that felt like a
gift from the gods. It truly did feel like a
gift from the gods. We can't take credit. We cannot
in good conscious take credit for that game.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
I mean again, I put in all the work. Why
would I not take credit for Chat. All the matters
is the final number, None of the bullshit like you
think matters matters.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
All that matters is that final number, the winning ticket.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Didn't Scooch teach you the right side is the winning side.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
The right side is the winning side.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Simon, Oh, it's all all the other bullshit, the luck everything,
we say, none of them that did you cash the ticket?
Your reasoning was right if you did so, like we said,
very lucky. Well, were not unlucky in these losses. So
it's you get it, you take it away. It's it's
a brutal game.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
We bet Chat. That's why I love it.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
It is. It is full on insanity, but it is
so much fun to be on that roller coaster during
the day. The Jets seven and a half at Tampa Bay.
This was our throw it in. We can't really figure
out the last game we want didn't love a lot
(17:35):
of the other numbers. This was the best of the
remaining numbers available. Look great to start the Bucks helping
us out in the beginning. They had sixty nine penalty
yards and forty two total yards in the first quarter,
kind of like the Browns game for a little while,
like the defense was doing its best to hang in there.
(17:57):
But then Tyrod Taylor threw a pick and I went
from thirteen six to twenty to six, And I don't
think I saw a play in the second half until
all of a sudden, I saw their kicker lining up
for a field goal at twenty six twenty and then
saw Will McDonald leap over like Superman, leaps and bounds
(18:19):
over the Bucks offensive line, block the kick and then
run it back. And I'm like, did we just get
two covers from back to back blocked kicks returned from touchdowns?
Yes we did.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, another game where you know pick six happens and
the back of your mind and go you're dead, Like
you just you throw pick six with a dog.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
I sat alone, a.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Backup quarterback like Tyra Taylor, you're dead. So in my
mind I was like, Okay, we need a miracle. We
know this Bucks team's back banged up. We have a
whole second half that hopefully dig out this hole, and
it was a long dig and Baker just wore us out,
like anytime they needed a big play third and nine,
(19:05):
either with his legs, his arm. I mean, a Meccabuka
is just out of this real talented. I know Mike
Evans got banged up in the game. It's like brutal,
but it's the chemistry between a Mecca Buca and Bakers insane,
like the fact that he's a rookie and he's playing
at this high level, like anytime they need to be
(19:26):
playing on third down, he kept stepping up. So yeah, honestly,
I felt more lucky on this one than I did
so much on the Eagles, where it's like Eagles have
the pedigree. This one is like, oh my god, this
Jets team is terrible, like having them on.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
I don't know if you watched that whole game. I did,
and they.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
All I didn't watch a play in the second half.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
I bless you so poorly coached.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
And God bless Aaron Glenn because you know he loves it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
He's he's a player's coach.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
But like you said, the penalties, all of it They're
just so bad that Jets team, And yeah, I can't
believe they didn't win it outright, We'll take the cover obviously,
but uh yeah, the rare time we based bet based
on the number, all the numbers covering six and a
half was all good. Uh seven and a half obviously good.
(20:13):
And yeah we we we always always go crazy in
the morning on Sunday about one game about a number
being so good, And like you said, I bet it,
but I really wasn't one of my bigger bets. Like
I The Bears was a much bigger bet for me,
and I honestly have felt better take on that number
because of the situation they were heading too, that Bucks
(20:34):
team that to comfort behind close wins, would they do
once again?
Speaker 2 (20:39):
I comfort behind close wins.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
So I think we're starting to get a read here
on this Bucks team and trying to manage how to
bet this team going forward. So yeah, good good read
good number and uh yeah that Uh I can't get over.
I can't have to go back and watch a Baker man.
He was so incredible in this game. Just he's quickly
becoming like one of my top five favorite quarterback to watch.
(21:00):
I just can't get over how much funny is every game.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
He's so much fun. He's so fucking ballsy. Yeah, you know,
and I love his attitude after in the press conference,
He's like, yeah, Steve Wilkes, he's the defensive coordinitary there.
He cut me. Hassan Reddick played for him, he got
played for the Jets. He got cut like this was
a revenge game to him, and players take it personally,
(21:26):
and he was fun enough to acknowledge that he was
taking it personally. Speaking of terrible games, terribly coached teams,
train wreck situations, the Houston Texans were anywhere from half
(21:47):
a point for US up to two and a half,
which I did bet underdogs in this game. What is
going on with that offense? C J. Stroud can't not
get the ball downfield. I think at one point he
was averaging like three yards per pass attempt. It's truly
astonishing how bad this team is. Either his receivers aren't
(22:09):
getting separation or he's not getting any protection. That poor defense.
It's another one where I watched that game and I'm like,
the Texans are doing the best they can defensively, but
they're not getting They're not getting any help. And part
of me, Like at least the Browns, somewhere down the road,
they might have a chance to get a quarterback.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
C J.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Stroud is the guy that Texans are invested in, so
they got to fix it with him. And it looks
awful right now.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Yeah, and you see all these bad habits he's picked
up because of all the hits and different things that
have happened to him, where he even when there's no
footsteps coming, he thinks there is because he's just beening
so beat up. So that's that's the issue. They just
gotta attack defensive line. I mean that game, we won
and lost that game one hundred different ways. Like you said,
the fumble and Nico Collins, I couldn't believe it, Like
(22:59):
the momentum had totally flipped ten ten game, like you said,
they're driving down, gonna walk in for a touchdown at
some point like the the the Jags are gassed on
their heels and bumble like you said, and big play
was it?
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Right? BTJ? I think I forget who got the big
play for uh yeah?
Speaker 3 (23:20):
Like crazy uh done had a horrible game, all these
drops and like we say, you give a team another chance.
Trevor Lawrence who played horrible as well that whole game,
put together a nice drive at the very end, got
the seven, and you know, they let them score as well,
but they were gonna get a three or at least
(23:41):
a touchdown there, Like it.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Was that was the right call by Houston. Let them
score there.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
And yeah, like we said going to the game, all
these zero and two teams, they're gonna tell you something
about themselves today, and it didn't work out for a
simus used game.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
And I and that's what stinks, right Like we.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
The Bears Carolina, we loved all them for the same reasons.
We just you know, didn't didn't go our away with
this one. And I definitely regret it. Where we both
knew it, we talked about it. I hate that we
put it in just because once again I bet into it.
So like Chad said he was having the two and
a half, I bet I bet every number. I just
Texas is the dollar. I just thought they were the
(24:21):
better team and I still think it. I just think,
you know, like you said, they're poor. The coach with
all the penalties and the turnovers and uh yeah, just
an awful game, and unfortunately might have to bet Texans again.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Next week.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Well, look that it was like they had a missfield
goal to start the game, the like end of end
of the first they're down a touchdown, they dropped a
pass for a first down. Yeah they got on first down,
they got they got sacked for thirteen yards on sec
and down, then they ran a draw on third down.
(24:59):
It CJ getting picked in the fourth when they're driving
to be in scoring range. And then that fumbled by
Nico Collins when they're at about the twenty with three
minutes forty five seconds left, and then by the way,
they still were able to get into position to score again. Yeah,
but someone got to CJ. Stroud. They hit his arm
(25:19):
as he's throwing the ball and he gets picked on
the two yard line. Like this team is a train wreck.
I don't know Demiko Ryans when he talks to his team,
they all keep saying, we're so close, We're so close.
But they're not that close. They're just not they're not
good enough. They're not good enough anywhere. But they're offensive.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
They could be three and oh that's what he's saying though,
Like that's why football is so brutal. Where they have
not played well, like you said, but they've been in
all these games. They could be three and oh and
it's just that's what. It's a separate of the season, right,
They're having the season from Hell Colts in the same
team in their division. This is like the season you
dream of as a fan, So it is. It is brutal.
(25:59):
Like you said that, I watched a lot of that game.
They are a really bad team this. Yeah, I just
I love Damiko Rans. They do look poorly coached in
a lot of aspects.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
The Jags are a really bad team too. Yeah, and
they look poorly coached. And this is the second week
in a row where it kind of looks like Liam
Khne and Trevor Lawrence can't stand each other. And Trevor
Lawrence made so many bad plays in this game. He
was twenty a forty in this game. He's not the
(26:35):
answer for them.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
It's crazy, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
We've seen it now again and again and again. He
is just not going to be the guy who turns
them into a super Bowl caliber team. He's going to
be a mediocre player who's been overpaid and they're going
to have to walk away from within the next twenty
four months. That's what I think about Trevor Lawrence right now,
another guy that they might want to start thinking about
(26:59):
walking away from bow Knicks. Denver plus two and a
half at the LA Chargers. We lost that one. Sean
Payton was leading the game twenty to thirteen late in
the fourth, fourth and one from around the Chargers thirty.
He didn't go for it. He punted away. What is
(27:20):
your take on what he should have done. I have
a strong opinion on this.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
I can't judge him like it's I think you just
know the top whatever he made a mistake was this
was this is all bone Nicks like. The defense played
out of their mind. The offensive weapons got open, schemed open,
you know, really tough art fall game where you have
all these open guys and he kept missing the throws
and I was Cursed's name. I know people who bet
(27:48):
on it wear as well. Where it's like you came
back by seventeen points, you had the ball again, you
could have finished them off there, and they didn't.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
They let him back in.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
I I do have some very you know reps.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
They don't decide the games.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
But there was like three or four drives that were
kept alive by their reps on like key third and
nine's that were very ticky tack call. Yeah, and that's
that's a tough part where it's like I get what
they're doing here, right, They are fouls, some of them were,
but the defense giving giving Herbert those extra lives and
(28:25):
bon Nick's missing open touchdowns that really really burned us.
And yeah, respect that that Chargers team. That was a
bad spot. You saw it was a bad spot, right
Herbert at one point I think he was like, you know,
one hundred and twenty yards passing and just no rhythm
midway through that third quarter towards the fourth. But once again,
(28:45):
I beginners roses since that Kansas City game, like he's
having these big drives and he had one today where
he drove down the field keenan Allen touchdown, big throw,
big possession in uh yeah, brutal, brutal beat like the
three obviously people out there that had it. You're happy
you get to push on that spot. But it's some
of the two and a half. It's like, man, it
(29:06):
was lined up right, it was seventeen thirteen. I was like, okay,
two field goal by Chargers here, we still get the cover.
But yeah, the gambling gods. They had another way of mind.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
The Chargers had ten points off of drives where they
were kept alive because of penalties or advanced significantly. Yeah,
because of penalties on the on the Broncos. That to
me is also bad coaching. Like the Broncos had I
think ten eleven twelve penalties today. You could argue that
(29:39):
they lost this game at least in part because the
penalties kept the Chargers in the game. They lost the
game last week because of a penalty. That's bad coaching,
that's bad discipline. They're not as good as their defense is.
They're making stupid mistakes that are giving their opponents opportunities
(30:01):
to keep the game alive. And when you have a
quarterback like bo Nicks, you kind of can't do that.
Like the way they're the way they're calling plays in
this game, they're depending on the defense to make plays
to keep the game close, and you can't make their
mistakes if bow Nicks is the quarterback, Which goes back
(30:24):
to my initial question. They had a fourth and one
of the thirty, like, you got to go for that
because if you make it, then you're just extending the
time that you have the ball and making it harder
for the Chargers to come back if you can't get
another first down. But if you miss it, then you're
in the same exact spot. The Chargers are close to
the end zone if you believe in your defense, believe
(30:46):
in your defense that you'll hold into a field goal
or that they're going to have to go forward and
fourth down and try to score a touchdown. But they
sort of were wishy washy, didn't believe. They just made
the wrong call. To me, I haven't even looked at
like the fourth and one analytics on it, But to me,
the logic is, you believe in your defense, go for it.
If you don't get it, you got to defend thirty
(31:07):
yards instead of sixty yards, but you also bleed the
clock if you do get it. It just was a
stupid idea, bad coaching, bad discipline, bad quarterbacking, all of it.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Yeah, no, it's tough call, and obviously, like you said,
it was clearly the wrong call because they lost the
game and.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
The Chargers had nobody. They lost Najee Harris, they lost
Makai Beckton, their the offensive line was already injured. They
had to replace the entire right side. This was handed
to the Broncos and they handed it right back. All right.
That's the five, three and two on the day Again.
I'll review at the end of the show. Let's take
(31:49):
a quick moment from our friends at hard Rock. We'll
come back, we'll take some questions, we'll talk about some
of the leans and some of the games that we
didn't put in today. Today's show is brought to you
by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. Week three
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(32:11):
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(34:04):
Speaking of fun, we loved the Colts this week. Didn't
like the number in the contest. We thought ourselves on that.
We just thought this was a much better team. Mistake
on us again, I'll ask the question. The team we
probably wouldn't have played was the Jets, and so I
(34:25):
don't know that it would have made a difference. You
liked the Panthers, you mentioned this morning, it wasn't enough
to knock out Denver Houston, and not more than the Jets,
because we actually had that conversation. Interesting game, I want
to talk about that in a second. I did not
(34:46):
watch more than a play or two of this game
when it popped on red zone. The Falcons had more yards,
more plays, high yards per play, more first downs, They
had three turnovers leading to fourteen points. I'm gonna have
to watch this game because somehow the Panthers also scored
sixteen other points and the Falcons couldn't do anything. Did
you see any of that game?
Speaker 3 (35:06):
Yeah, I watched the whole game thirty nothing, it's just
a really dumb, really dumb game or everything went wrong
for Atlanta. But also my fear of Penix came true
of him being moved off a spot, not being accurate,
you know, off time with his receivers, and he's it's
(35:27):
his true rookie year, right, he played what three or
four games last year in the season. Like I I
just that's why I'm always hold down on this Falcon team,
like he's gonna have growing pains panis so just a game,
Like I said, ten thousand simulations, that's another one that
happens maybe fifty times. Like just Panthers are not a
dominant team defensively, especially with the injuries they had, and
(35:49):
they got to shut out like they dominated even the
red zone. They were really good and stout and like
you said, the turnovers, Yeah got it. Gotta be excited
for a Panthers fan because it's two weeks now that
Bryce has made the throws and you know, Arizona, I
was a little skeptic of them, like that was the
only reason, honest I didn't bang the table for us
(36:11):
with this Panthers team.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Was that was that? Really?
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Bryce getting back to what he was last year against
Arizona or was that just because their secondary was so
banged up? And you know you saw it today he's
making big time throws and situations and yeah, bad and
missed by us on them and the Colts. And I honestly, again,
if you go back and listen, I said to me,
the Texans were our fifth one, like that was the
one I had on the edge, and I just you know,
(36:36):
got scared off by how much public love there was, obviously,
and how much the line had moved to that Colts team.
But that was probably more telling that we should have
been more confident in it, because that was just all
late professional money and moving that all the way up
to six before kickoff. And yeah, the Panthers, we joked,
I think it was like the third highest bet side
(36:56):
of the week for most sports books Atlanta. That number
went from six to five and a half to four
and a half by kickoff. So once again, the professionals
had a really good week and they were all over
the trends. These those zero to two teams were really
undervalued and they all pretty much bounce back to except
(37:17):
obviously a couple of the ones we picked.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Yeah, somehow that always seems to happen. I hate it
pretty amazing. It's it's so freaking hard.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
That's like, that's the hardest part.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
People don't get that aspect of is that we know
many people listen. That's obviously in the back of our
minds when we talk on Sunday morning, and it's hard
enough that we'll not want to look like an idiot
when everything you say is recorded and printed.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
So not that you had a little bit.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Of deer head of lights this wine, but I could
tell you were like, Jesus, take away with me this morning.
You're like, I knew you had sides you liked, but
you're like, I'm not that confident. I mean even you know,
joking around with you about your love for the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
Thank god you didn't bring them up this morning.
Speaker 3 (37:56):
Oh there's games like that where it's like it was
a weird week. We're just trying to survive. There's a
week's go on. We'll get better data. But we wanted
the four and one. It was right there, four and
five was right there as well. So I'll take a
three and two week and just survive in advance.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
Totally three and two every single week I'd be perfectly happy.
We both wisely talked ourselves out of the Patriots because
we just don't like Drake May who had two of
the team's five turnovers. The Steelers still don't look very good,
not looking for places to back them throughout the year. Look,
we like the Bears all week. They were our brass balls.
(38:36):
They were favorites in our contest Dogs as of this morning.
That spooked us. I know you're in other contests you
ended up playing the Bears as favorites. You may be
looking at the T shirt I'm wearing right now. I
wore it all day. I didn't show it this morning
because I didn't want to sort of attempt the gods.
But I will say that I wore it all afternoon
(38:57):
and felt really really good about it.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
And football is just really stupid. Bears.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
I couldn't believe how well that game went for them,
and everything just felt like it went right where Kleb
played so well. The defense with all these backups. The
guys didn't have talent, but they were hitting so hard.
Anytime the Cowboys touched the ball, these backups punished them.
It was incredible. Uh, But that's why you love zero
to two teams. They're just so desperate. They play with
(39:26):
such an anger and hungry and yeah, like I told Chad,
I took them a minus one and a half and
a couple of their contests. I didn't let the numbers
scare him off. I was just like, this number should
be three. I'm not gonna overthink it. This is such
a bad spot for this Cowboys team after a miracle
win the week before, and you know people want to
(39:47):
give Killable hard time. He did exactly what you're supposed
to do to a bad defense, Like that's he ran
the offense. He didn't try to improve, scramble around, do
all this crazy stuff.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
He did every now and then, but he mostly played
in the offense.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Feel like he's going to start seeing how Ben's just
gonna scheme guys open, and so I know we've got
to keep it moving. I get the next week games,
but yeah, the Bears going forward, there's things to be
excited about. And you can't say that, like you said,
you haven't been able to say that in a while
as a Bears fan. So huge win, it could take
a breather, great cover, and yeah, I wish we had
(40:21):
in the contest.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Look, we talked about it this morning about expectations for
the Bears, Like, I was so excited that they were
competent in a two minutes rill to end the first half.
I texted my son, who's at Maryland, and I'm like,
I'm so glad you were able to see that because
(40:42):
that It's like some parents might feel good if their
kids see their favorite teams that they share win a title.
I'm just happy when he sees confident professional football. We
finally got it. Look, we could have been one in
four today. We could have been on five today. Yeah,
if we had, I'd say we need a couples counseling. Instead,
I'll say we had a vigorous and healthy conversation that
(41:05):
led to very positive outcomes. Simon says Denver two and
a half from last week, Chad loves Love. We got
the Chiefs minus five and a half. Tonight, brass Balls
was the Bears, Rock and a hard Place was the Texans.
That was clearly a tough one, sharp versus square. I
had the Eagles, you had the Texans all right. Early
(41:30):
Leans a couple of games that stood out to me,
but I want to get some of yours too. We
just talked about Atlanta. I noticed Washington on the road
at Atlanta at plus three. I'm gonna tell you right now,
I already bet the Falcons at plus three. My theory is,
(41:53):
if Jake and Danige is playing, this number is going up,
and I'm happy to bet the Falcons again. But if not,
then the wise guys are coming in on the fal
Falkens and plus three. I think this team is not
as bad as we saw today. In certain parts of
the game. The offense clearly was effective statistically, So I
bet the Falcons and plus three.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Yeah, donate it.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Atlanta at home plus three not a bad bet, But
I'm not gonna do anything until I know what's up
with Daniels because this number could move three or four points.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
Arizona short home favorite Thursday night against Seattle. I kind
of lean Arizona in this game.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Yeah, another interesting opening number. I mean, you know, one
and a half.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
It opened one and a half.
Speaker 2 (42:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
I don't go too hard early on the Thursday night
games because I need to see the injury report because
it's a short week. But your idea of selling on
Seattle I think is warranted.
Speaker 2 (42:59):
Right, Probably a good time of selling it.
Speaker 3 (43:01):
Or is this a well oiled machine playing against an
Arizona team that Kyler leaves so many plays on the field,
and they should have won that game eight different ways
and he just couldn't get it done. So I got
an immediate no immediate rush to bet that one either.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
Question from the audience, this one from I think Kellen
laws Jets plus two and a half, Jets plus two
and a half? Who do they play in Miami.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
One day night the ether at Miami? Yeah, you are
a sick Oh, my friend, I will again, I guess
I'll take Miami there early. But I get where he's
coming from. That's that's that's an interesting opening line because
they're actually they're looking for Miami money.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Obviously open that at minus two and a half.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
So again, another game I got no read on yet,
but I lean towards the Dolphins. I just I can't
get over how bad that Jets team is. And you
can pass, you can pass against the Jets defense. I
saw saw Scott banged up in the game too. Yeah. Yeah,
I'm leaning honestly towards Miami. I think they showed a
little something that Buffalo's game, which that could be a
(44:13):
trap itself being sucked in on Miami team's one good
game this year.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
I got to put on my glasses because Vitalis is
asking about Buffalo, which opened at fifteen and a half
and is now up to sixteen and a half against
the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 3 (44:31):
I know it's like you're we're supposed to bet the Bills,
Like I I sn't done any these numbers done yet. Yeah,
I can easily see my model having this said seventeen
and a half because I'm weighted very heavily towards these
home teams, these big favorites with really good quarterbacks against
bad teams. And we saw it last week with the Browns,
Like the Browns defense can hold up for a while,
(44:51):
but if you make if your bad quarterback makes one mistake,
all of a sudden, that seven point lead the good
team has it turns into a fourteen to twe one point.
Soot Me and Chad already know it's probably gonna be
our survivor pick, so I'll probably have betten it as well.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
Like it's just.
Speaker 3 (45:08):
Doesn't get much easier than the Bills at home as
this big of a favorite. I'll look at their look
at their schedule, but that's that's a nice, nice matchup
this week for this Bills team against the Saints team
that you know, the first two games that might have
just been mirage, they actually might be by far the
worst team of football.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
All right, Who am I missing?
Speaker 3 (45:30):
Tampa's plus three? You can get the Bucks plus three
right now with hard Rock. They're playing the Eagles at
home next week. Tampa historically has owned this Eagles team.
I can't believe the line is the short that's so
much respected bigger. I thought this would be Eagles minus four,
four and a half after that win where you know
(45:53):
Baker's def offensive line that's a real issue. He took
a lot of hits and made a lot of things happen.
And the Eagles are much more athletic offensive line or
defensive line than that team he just face. But I'll
take the early number plus three because I just that
just seems like a pros line. But the pros will
bet down and uh yeah, I mean, once again shocked.
(46:14):
I'm looking at a couple of books here already moved
to two and a half, So looks like the early
money yes coming in on that Buck side. And another
game that jumped out to me, Chad, Chad just nailed it.
Pittsburgh didn't look very good today, did.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
They, Chad, They did not sign it.
Speaker 2 (46:30):
They are a.
Speaker 3 (46:31):
Home dog against Carson went to the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 2 (46:34):
Right now there are plus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (46:36):
Oh yeah, yoe, So I'm gonna grab that now, Tomlin
home dog against the backup quarterback. And was that the
Vikings being that great of a team, or just every
little thing went wrong for that Bangles team that should
have known to bet against something like that whole backup
(46:58):
quarterback harp.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Pounty win at the end of the game.
Speaker 3 (47:00):
Next game gotta fatal like it just never works out
back to that game. So, uh, just an instant line
that jumped out to me. They're making Steelers a home dog.
But that's gonna be very publican tchuck. I think everyone
else is gonna have the same thoughts as me. Uh
one last one Cowboys just got embarrassed. You don't have
to rush to bet it, just in case there's a
(47:21):
plus sixers out there grabbing now they're at home. Believe
they might be the Sunday night game against green Bay.
I know I don't want to keep fading green Bay either,
especially after that loss, but this will be.
Speaker 2 (47:36):
It's just gonna be like the Chiefs tonight.
Speaker 3 (47:37):
It's gonna be every teaser, every bet. Oh it's in Dublin. Oh,
the Steelers are in Dublin against the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (47:45):
Oh that changes it.
Speaker 3 (47:47):
God bless you, Barbara, our amazing producer's that makes way
more sense because I was like Steelers at home the
Carson Okay, God damn, I literally bet it while we're
talking about it too.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
A buy out, cash.
Speaker 2 (48:01):
Out, but on my glasses, so I cannot.
Speaker 3 (48:03):
I saw the fine print, but I just it's whatever, right,
you know who reads the fine print?
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Man, that makes sense? So yeah, that's I know. We
gotta get out of here. Just early reads Dallas at home,
big dog against green Bay. And one last one, uh
Vegas at home dog against the Bears. They're plus one
and a half right now against this Bears team. No one,
no one believes in this Raiders team. They just got
(48:30):
rolled by Mariota. Yeah, so bye, Low, this is easily
I am already gonna I'm guess why Model will have
to send minus two and a half maybe minus three Raiders.
Just looking at it right now, I at least make
the Raiders a pick. Personally, it's like they might be
worse than the Bears, but they're not that much worse.
They're not a one and a half point dog at
(48:51):
home to this Bears team. So I know it's painful
to zag on this Bears team. I just love them
so much today, But it's the business we're in, chat
I gotta do it.
Speaker 1 (48:58):
Steven Martinez last week asked about the Browns, and we
were on the Browns. This week he's asking about the
Colts and Rams. Cults are four and a half point
dogs at the Rams?
Speaker 3 (49:12):
And are we the suckers? How do you not take
the Colts there? So I have to be on the Rams?
What is that line? Four and a half?
Speaker 2 (49:18):
Oh my god?
Speaker 3 (49:19):
So if you want to make the early bet, go
with the public, go the pros. I am as sure
they'll hit this early four and a half, crazy opening
line for that. Just the Butcher's into the Colts again.
We don't believe, and you prove it again like they
did with Tennessee this week. So yeah, I like great
call by him. I came to see how this line moves.
When I first saw it, I said, I'm the sucker.
(49:40):
I right away went to that Colts plus four and
a half. We mean, Chad jump on this call, but
I'm not betting it. I'm gonna try to be patient
with that one because I already can tell I'm probably
gonna like the Rams side. It's just gonna be that's
got to be the biggest public dog of the upcoming week.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
That Colts team.
Speaker 3 (49:55):
They've just been great three and oh against the spread,
three and oh, straight up just dominant.
Speaker 1 (49:59):
All Right, we're gonna get out of here. Everyone can
go watch the Chiefs Giants for the game tonight. I
am on the Chiefs minus five and a half. Simon
has generally been with me, but more likely he is
heavily invested in the Chiefs money line above all else
in that game. Accurate.
Speaker 3 (50:21):
Yeah, I bet the five and a half with you,
like we bet it last Sunday, and I bet it
during the week, But financially very invested heavily in the
Chiefs just winning out right.
Speaker 1 (50:30):
All right, final review of our games for anybody who
joined late and did not get to hear off the
top three and two this week for Simon and I
Eagles minus three and a half, Jets plus seven and
a half, Browns plus eight and a half. We had
the Texans plus a half and we had the Broncos
plus two and a half. This has been Sharper Square
(50:52):
presented by hard Rock Bet part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday.
To go over the entire end NFL Slate, watch or
listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, Subscribe
to the channel, download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you
get your pods, Subscribe, subscribe, rate, review, leave us five stars,
say whatever you want, feedback as it gets Until next time.
Speaker 2 (51:15):
I Love you,
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock Beat.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I
am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Mike Padre, professional Better, Simon Hunter, l O.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Simon God, how are you feeling?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Oh my god? What the freak? Actually? I think today
every one of our bats was in the middle of
all of this chaos. Today we had the Eagles minus
three and a half might be one of the greatest
miracle wins and covers either of us have ever had.
(00:55):
We had the Jets similarly, earning a cup off of
a blocked kick just as the Eagles won their cover,
the Browns miracle wins, somewhat miracle cover, Texans giving it
away with turnovers in the red zone twice with chances
to take the lead or tie the game, and then
(01:18):
the Broncos making so many penalties and so many mental
mistakes they give up the game. They don't cover. The
scriptwriters for the NFL are on fire right now. Just
give them the freaking Emmy, because like insane insane three
and two day for us. And the truth is, until
(01:39):
about four pm we were headed for one and three.
So you know, brother, you were way too I texted
at one point, I'm like, what the freak is happening?
You just wrote back football. You didn't even give me
any exclamation points, like yeah, this is how expected it
to go.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
It is. It's sixty minutes.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
It's like I never get too high, too low until
the final whistle is blown. Because football is I say
it every time, it's a really stupid game played with
a weirdly shaped ball and it makes no sense like
the bounces. Today we just talked about it. Did we
get unlucky in those Denver and Houston games, Sure, but
(02:18):
it's like we got lucky in other games just how
it is right the bounce has went our way in
the other games, the other two games they didn't, and
we try as best as we can just to that
the numbers. Because it's like it's such a stupid chaotic sport.
We talk all the time like Survivor. These first three
four weeks, there's no rhythm to the season. All these
(02:39):
teams are working through stuff, trying to find their own identity.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
It's just chaos and can't say it.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Enough where it's like you feel so confident, there's a
reason you think it's a good number, and it's not
a good number, right they're sucking in and a couple
of lines today. You know, we talked about it all
day and they came through, and you know, we just
were joking before it came on. Got Arizona forty Niners
game landed right on one. The spread was one and
a half. Like the books, they're pretty locked in right now.
(03:08):
They're making some really really sharp lines. So I know
people lose their minds on our Sunday morning show us
agonizing over these numbers, but it matters, like these games
are just so tight, so close. I know there's a
couple of blow outs today, but a lot of these
other games are just wild craziness down to the final snap.
Even teams again the Eagles Jets, like cheat was saying,
(03:30):
they were both down by like twenty points and they
came back somehow covered both of them.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
So it's the best why we love betting it.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
And you just at the end of the day, like
we say, don't get too emotional that the number. Like
you said, I was going crazy, but I don't know
what to say. The other thing that was just football.
You're like basically looking for what's happening. It's just it's
a really stupid game, and weird bounces happened.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
All right. At the end of the show, we're gonna
we're gonna have our early leans, We're gonna answer questions
from those watching, will respond to comments from those watching live.
But first let's get into it. Let's talk about Let's
start with green Bay at Cleveland, because that was one
Cleveland was an eight and a half point dog, and
(04:12):
literally on Tuesday we talked about this game and I said,
of course we like Cleveland. My biggest concern is that
Cleveland can lose this game ten to nothing and its
defense will have been brilliant and they will not have covered.
And until there were three minutes and forty five seconds left,
(04:32):
Cleveland was gonna lose this game ten nothing. And then
they score thirteen points in the final three minutes and
forty five seconds, all because of their defense. The last
thirteenth the last ten points, a pick interception of Jordan
Love returned to the five y score a touchdown field
(04:54):
go on a off of a blocked kick after a
block kick to win the game. Here's my question for you.
I wonder if you noticed this as well. The Browns
when they scored that field goal, I think they had
like a first and goal from the one, and they
had multiple plays in the red zone inside the ten
(05:15):
actually where they couldn't get the ball into the end zone,
and there were penalties back and forth. But the last
penalty that mattered was a chop block on the Browns
that moved them from like the one to the fifteen
or twenty or something like that, and they couldn't ever
get close enough to make it logical to go forward
on fourth down. I think that saved our cover because
(05:37):
if they otherwise, they're going forward on fourth down from
the one yard line and they're not getting it and
we're still down ten to nothing, and who knows how
that game ends. That's how I looked at that chop
block penalty on the Browns, that it actually did us
a favor.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
Yeah, I mean, love love the game, love the call.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Really really fun watch, and I mean I'm sure it
was really painful if everyone watching it. But my whole life,
my whole time, the whole time was just keep it close.
All we need is three. That's my whole mentali the
whole time. Even when it was, like you said, do mcgloom,
they're up ten, it's like they're still in this position,
like green Bay is letting them hang around. And we
talked this morning, there's always just one game in week
(06:17):
three on a seven and a half point favorite that
somehow loses outright, and it's you look back and it's
the stupidest, one of the dumbest games of the year.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
That was a very stupid win. Right.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
It's I don't know how many simulations everyone's computer druns,
but I usually run ten thousand per game. That's a
five five out a ten thousand chance of happening. Like
like you just said, the final three minutes, it was
just all negative to green Bay, really all positive the
Browns in any way you could think of, Like you said,
they really couldn't pass the ball, and you know, I
(06:49):
think it's junkins like they brought in the running back,
the rookie kid and a couple of huge runs are
really kind of shifted their all offense and kind of
got green Bay back on their heels. Because, like we
talked about, going to the game, green Bay's defense can
were pretty dominant. We really just really relied on that
front of the Browns against a banged up Green Bay
O line, and it showed like it's Green Bay. It
(07:11):
was incomforable the whole game, and uh yeah that was
you look back on, just an interesting line. I don't
get why some books held it in a half. The
seven and half made sense, right, that was a good line,
good value, But we needed that as betters. I just
need to see a big dog win outright at home
in a stupid way, because that's that's how it is
(07:33):
in football. Like every week there's always gonna be one
of those random ones. In last week, me and Chad
both got away with one of the Cowboys Cardinals. The
favorites usually don't win those. It just doesn't work that way.
It did this week. Like we said, we had crazy
bounces in Yeah, this was a game I felt like
you felt sick about in the morning that we had
to do it, and I was like, I know we
(07:54):
might be stepping in it, but this is what we do.
We can't help ourselves. This is such a good number.
And yeah, the rare opportunity that Joe Flacco puts up
basically zero and we don't just cover. We went outright
against what the number two, number three team in the
entire NFC, So pretty crazy whin to cover?
Speaker 1 (08:14):
Yeah, listen, I believe I said on Thursday, if you recall,
if the Browns don't cover this game, I don't think
we can ever bet a big underdog with a great
defense at home. Again, it's over, like that trend, that
philosophy that best of the number closing line value, it's
(08:36):
all over if the Browns don't at least cover this game.
So I'm glad they allowed us to continue to bet
against a philosophy that we wholly believe in. This defense
is so good, and I was doing the math in
my head. I just feel bad for Miles Garrett. I
feel bad for Denzo Ward. I feel bad for the
(08:58):
entire for Jim Schwartz because they're three years away from
being playoff contenders if they get a quarterback they think
can make a difference, if that quarterback is not already
on their roster, because let's say Joe Flacco is the
quarterback the rest of the year. Kevin Stefanski has kept
(09:19):
himself from bringing in Dylan Gabriel when the offense is
doing nothing he's clearly saying our defense is good enough,
someone's going to make a mistake. I don't want it
to be us. We're going to continue to run the ball.
We're going to find those opportunities and we will find
a way to manufacture points. But then, what are they
doing next year? Are they drafting a quarterback? If so,
(09:40):
where are they getting a quarterback in the draft? That
quarterback probably won't be very good in his first year,
so then maybe he's good in the second year. So
all of a sudden, the window for how good this
defense is in these players, they're three years away. Like
it's such a waste of what could be an historically
great defense.
Speaker 3 (10:00):
The Browns, for interest, don't dwell on the Browns, Dad,
don't worry about what the Browns are about to do
a quarterback. Don't don't even use any space in your
brain for because it doesn't.
Speaker 2 (10:08):
I just feel bad for Baker. They had the guy,
he had a bad injury.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
They overreacted, let him walk, And that's what bull just
a brutal sport. You just it's so hard not to
overthink things. And yeah, I'm right there with you. They've
wasted Miles Garrett's entire career. But he's happy. He got
his money. That's what at the end of the day,
that's what he wanted. That's why he stayed.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
They really did waste his entire career. They get with
the brought. The Browns management and ownership are getting what
they deserve because Baker Mayfield, he just wins. Okay, so
they're getting what they deserve. They walked away from the
guy that could have been the franchise changer for them.
Uh all right. The other game, Oh my god, Rams
(10:55):
at Eagles all week long, beginning at last night, last
Sunday night, a week ago. I loved the Eagles. You
loved the Eagles. I really believed that they just had
an unleash their offense, that they were being conservative, taking
(11:17):
advantage of their strengths. I believe their defense was great.
I believe that the Rams defense was overrated against a
Texas team that we'll talk about cannot score, cannot move
the ball, and against Titan's team that isn't very good
right now, I thought they would just dominate this game,
and instead they got dominated until you know, the second
(11:39):
series of the third quarter. What the freak happened? Why
did they all of a sudden change their game plan,
and while like, do you think here's my question, do
you think that the change in the game plan was
effective because of something the Rams had done or should
they have been doing this the whole time?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Honestly, I think it was just a Lane Johnson injury.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Like he went out, Yeah, that changed everything.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Yeah, they had their first opening drive touchdown it and
I think they punted or had three and outs to
their next like five possessions.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
And by the way, on those possessions, Lane Johnson's replacement
got bulldozer and Jalen Hurtz could not get the ball
over his hands and got sacked, and it was.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Crushing, missing open blocks and letting guys just tee off
on hurts like it was a disaster. I know coaches
coach speakers like, well, there's no real adjustments at halftime.
This is the perfect example of you saw the adjustments
made to the offensive line and whatever Stout did, they
made it work. Like it's you know, twenty six to seven,
what eleven minutes twelve minutes left in the third.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Off of a fumble on the opening drive. Yes, in
the third quarter.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's dire, and.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
I try to beat the drum about it, but people
don't want to hear it because I'm an Eagles fan,
but hurts he'd he doesn't look like Herbert, he'll never
throw the ball like Herbert. But he has something that
just a handful of guys have, which is this absurd
confidence when they're down like he was here, that he's
still the best player on the best team and they
(13:14):
can come back in any situation. And I won't lie.
I thought it was a dead bet, bad bet.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Like of course it was a dead bet.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
Everything is going wrong in that first half in the
sense that I feel like every kick return the Rams
were at the thirty five forty, where the Eagles are
at their own ten, their own fifteen. They could not
throughout the kickoff and they just could run it. I
think they're average six or seven yards per play in
that first half For the Eagles, I think had their
lowest output in ten years. I think they had forty
(13:44):
yards in the first half. So yeah, total luck getting
the cover in the win. But like we say all
the time, you just play the number. It never made sense.
Why was it three and a half? Anyone in their
grandma could have told you the Rams had looked better
through two weeks and something was wrong with the Eagles
(14:04):
offense and tried saying they've been playing possum, that they
just that's the style they play because they don't need
to put the ball downfield. There's no point to it
if they don't, if there's no reason to do it,
there's no force to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Why would you do it?
Speaker 3 (14:19):
In this game, Hertz was forced to do it and
you know, shut up in a big way because those
like we said, the Rams front four were teeing off
on him. They were really dominant the offensive line. And yeah, that's, uh,
it sucks we have to fade the Eagles next week.
But like, man, that's that's good. That's that's probably the
best of all the teams were going to talk about
that's the best night of any team, because you know,
(14:41):
that was a spot right that Rams team came out
and looked like they've been pissed off for six months
in the offseason thinking about beating up this team.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
And uh, rare, rare, rare time. That was a two.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
I think they had two blocked field goals and like
Chet said, the final block, Jordan Davis picks it up runs.
You know, was that seventy yards JAD and we get
we get the stupid backdoor cover.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Yeah, I don't know that like it ended, the score
ended where we thought it would. I don't know that
we can take a ton of credit for the game
as much as we can just take credit for the
fact we won in an unexpected fashion, in a way
that you almost never I don't I don't know that
(15:29):
anyone's ever won a game off of a covered a
game off of a blocked kick like that. I had
actually stopped watching when they you know, I had the
four box on. I forgot what other games were on
at that point. And for those who were watching live, apologies,
Simon's having some camera issues, but you can still hear
him the whole time. But I had moved on to
(15:53):
the other games that were sort of at the end,
and I sort of just saw Jordan Davis running and
I thought for a second showing a replay of something
that I missed during the game, and then I realized,
holy crap, he's not gonna fall down. This is actually live,
And it's rare that you get someone having fun in
(16:14):
football and doing the fun thing and just going for
the full touchdown and then it ends up paying off
for us. I don't know, man, that felt like a
gift from the gods. It truly did feel like a
gift from the gods. We can't take credit. We cannot
in good conscious take credit for that game.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
I mean again, I put in all the work. Why
would I not take credit for Chat. All the matters
is the final number, None of the bullshit like you
think matters matters.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
All that matters is that final number, the winning ticket.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Didn't Scooch teach you the right side is the winning side.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
The right side is the winning side.
Speaker 3 (16:55):
Simon, Oh, it's all all the other bullshit, the luck everything,
we say, none of them that did you cash the ticket?
Your reasoning was right if you did so, like we said,
very lucky. Well, were not unlucky in these losses. So
it's you get it, you take it away. It's it's
a brutal game.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
We bet Chat. That's why I love it.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
It is. It is full on insanity, but it is
so much fun to be on that roller coaster during
the day. The Jets seven and a half at Tampa Bay.
This was our throw it in. We can't really figure
out the last game we want didn't love a lot
(17:35):
of the other numbers. This was the best of the
remaining numbers available. Look great to start the Bucks helping
us out in the beginning. They had sixty nine penalty
yards and forty two total yards in the first quarter,
kind of like the Browns game for a little while,
like the defense was doing its best to hang in there.
(17:57):
But then Tyrod Taylor threw a pick and I went
from thirteen six to twenty to six, And I don't
think I saw a play in the second half until
all of a sudden, I saw their kicker lining up
for a field goal at twenty six twenty and then
saw Will McDonald leap over like Superman, leaps and bounds
(18:19):
over the Bucks offensive line, block the kick and then
run it back. And I'm like, did we just get
two covers from back to back blocked kicks returned from touchdowns?
Yes we did.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, another game where you know pick six happens and
the back of your mind and go you're dead, Like
you just you throw pick six with a dog.
Speaker 2 (18:44):
I sat alone, a.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
Backup quarterback like Tyra Taylor, you're dead. So in my
mind I was like, Okay, we need a miracle. We
know this Bucks team's back banged up. We have a
whole second half that hopefully dig out this hole, and
it was a long dig and Baker just wore us out,
like anytime they needed a big play third and nine,
(19:05):
either with his legs, his arm. I mean, a Meccabuka
is just out of this real talented. I know Mike
Evans got banged up in the game. It's like brutal,
but it's the chemistry between a Mecca Buca and Bakers insane,
like the fact that he's a rookie and he's playing
at this high level, like anytime they need to be
(19:26):
playing on third down, he kept stepping up. So yeah, honestly,
I felt more lucky on this one than I did
so much on the Eagles, where it's like Eagles have
the pedigree. This one is like, oh my god, this
Jets team is terrible, like having them on.
Speaker 2 (19:42):
I don't know if you watched that whole game. I did,
and they.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
All I didn't watch a play in the second half.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
I bless you so poorly coached.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
And God bless Aaron Glenn because you know he loves it.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
He's he's a player's coach.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
But like you said, the penalties, all of it They're
just so bad that Jets team, And yeah, I can't
believe they didn't win it outright, We'll take the cover obviously,
but uh yeah, the rare time we based bet based
on the number, all the numbers covering six and a
half was all good. Uh seven and a half obviously good.
(20:13):
And yeah we we we always always go crazy in
the morning on Sunday about one game about a number
being so good, And like you said, I bet it,
but I really wasn't one of my bigger bets. Like
I The Bears was a much bigger bet for me,
and I honestly have felt better take on that number
because of the situation they were heading too, that Bucks
(20:34):
team that to comfort behind close wins, would they do
once again?
Speaker 2 (20:39):
I comfort behind close wins.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
So I think we're starting to get a read here
on this Bucks team and trying to manage how to
bet this team going forward. So yeah, good good read
good number and uh yeah that Uh I can't get over.
I can't have to go back and watch a Baker man.
He was so incredible in this game. Just he's quickly
becoming like one of my top five favorite quarterback to watch.
(21:00):
I just can't get over how much funny is every game.
Speaker 1 (21:03):
He's so much fun. He's so fucking ballsy. Yeah, you know,
and I love his attitude after in the press conference,
He's like, yeah, Steve Wilkes, he's the defensive coordinitary there.
He cut me. Hassan Reddick played for him, he got
played for the Jets. He got cut like this was
a revenge game to him, and players take it personally,
(21:26):
and he was fun enough to acknowledge that he was
taking it personally. Speaking of terrible games, terribly coached teams,
train wreck situations, the Houston Texans were anywhere from half
(21:47):
a point for US up to two and a half,
which I did bet underdogs in this game. What is
going on with that offense? C J. Stroud can't not
get the ball downfield. I think at one point he
was averaging like three yards per pass attempt. It's truly
astonishing how bad this team is. Either his receivers aren't
(22:09):
getting separation or he's not getting any protection. That poor defense.
It's another one where I watched that game and I'm like,
the Texans are doing the best they can defensively, but
they're not getting They're not getting any help. And part
of me, Like at least the Browns, somewhere down the road,
they might have a chance to get a quarterback.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
C J.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
Stroud is the guy that Texans are invested in, so
they got to fix it with him. And it looks
awful right now.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Yeah, and you see all these bad habits he's picked
up because of all the hits and different things that
have happened to him, where he even when there's no
footsteps coming, he thinks there is because he's just beening
so beat up. So that's that's the issue. They just
gotta attack defensive line. I mean that game, we won
and lost that game one hundred different ways. Like you said,
the fumble and Nico Collins, I couldn't believe it, Like
(22:59):
the momentum had totally flipped ten ten game, like you said,
they're driving down, gonna walk in for a touchdown at
some point like the the the Jags are gassed on
their heels and bumble like you said, and big play
was it?
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Right? BTJ? I think I forget who got the big
play for uh yeah?
Speaker 3 (23:20):
Like crazy uh done had a horrible game, all these
drops and like we say, you give a team another chance.
Trevor Lawrence who played horrible as well that whole game,
put together a nice drive at the very end, got
the seven, and you know, they let them score as well,
but they were gonna get a three or at least
(23:41):
a touchdown there, Like it.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Was that was the right call by Houston. Let them
score there.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
And yeah, like we said going to the game, all
these zero and two teams, they're gonna tell you something
about themselves today, and it didn't work out for a
simus used game.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
And I and that's what stinks, right Like we.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
The Bears Carolina, we loved all them for the same reasons.
We just you know, didn't didn't go our away with
this one. And I definitely regret it. Where we both
knew it, we talked about it. I hate that we
put it in just because once again I bet into it.
So like Chad said he was having the two and
a half, I bet I bet every number. I just
Texas is the dollar. I just thought they were the
(24:21):
better team and I still think it. I just think,
you know, like you said, they're poor. The coach with
all the penalties and the turnovers and uh yeah, just
an awful game, and unfortunately might have to bet Texans again.
Speaker 2 (24:35):
Next week.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Well, look that it was like they had a missfield
goal to start the game, the like end of end
of the first they're down a touchdown, they dropped a
pass for a first down. Yeah they got on first down,
they got they got sacked for thirteen yards on sec
and down, then they ran a draw on third down.
(24:59):
It CJ getting picked in the fourth when they're driving
to be in scoring range. And then that fumbled by
Nico Collins when they're at about the twenty with three
minutes forty five seconds left, and then by the way,
they still were able to get into position to score again. Yeah,
but someone got to CJ. Stroud. They hit his arm
(25:19):
as he's throwing the ball and he gets picked on
the two yard line. Like this team is a train wreck.
I don't know Demiko Ryans when he talks to his team,
they all keep saying, we're so close, We're so close.
But they're not that close. They're just not they're not
good enough. They're not good enough anywhere. But they're offensive.
Speaker 3 (25:38):
They could be three and oh that's what he's saying though,
Like that's why football is so brutal. Where they have
not played well, like you said, but they've been in
all these games. They could be three and oh and
it's just that's what. It's a separate of the season, right,
They're having the season from Hell Colts in the same
team in their division. This is like the season you
dream of as a fan, So it is. It is brutal.
(25:59):
Like you said that, I watched a lot of that game.
They are a really bad team this. Yeah, I just
I love Damiko Rans. They do look poorly coached in
a lot of aspects.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
The Jags are a really bad team too. Yeah, and
they look poorly coached. And this is the second week
in a row where it kind of looks like Liam
Khne and Trevor Lawrence can't stand each other. And Trevor
Lawrence made so many bad plays in this game. He
was twenty a forty in this game. He's not the
(26:35):
answer for them.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
It's crazy, you know what I mean.
Speaker 1 (26:38):
We've seen it now again and again and again. He
is just not going to be the guy who turns
them into a super Bowl caliber team. He's going to
be a mediocre player who's been overpaid and they're going
to have to walk away from within the next twenty
four months. That's what I think about Trevor Lawrence right now,
another guy that they might want to start thinking about
(26:59):
walking away from bow Knicks. Denver plus two and a
half at the LA Chargers. We lost that one. Sean
Payton was leading the game twenty to thirteen late in
the fourth, fourth and one from around the Chargers thirty.
He didn't go for it. He punted away. What is
(27:20):
your take on what he should have done. I have
a strong opinion on this.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
I can't judge him like it's I think you just
know the top whatever he made a mistake was this
was this is all bone Nicks like. The defense played
out of their mind. The offensive weapons got open, schemed open,
you know, really tough art fall game where you have
all these open guys and he kept missing the throws
and I was Cursed's name. I know people who bet
(27:48):
on it wear as well. Where it's like you came
back by seventeen points, you had the ball again, you
could have finished them off there, and they didn't.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
They let him back in.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
I I do have some very you know reps.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
They don't decide the games.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
But there was like three or four drives that were
kept alive by their reps on like key third and
nine's that were very ticky tack call. Yeah, and that's
that's a tough part where it's like I get what
they're doing here, right, They are fouls, some of them were,
but the defense giving giving Herbert those extra lives and
(28:25):
bon Nick's missing open touchdowns that really really burned us.
And yeah, respect that that Chargers team. That was a
bad spot. You saw it was a bad spot, right
Herbert at one point I think he was like, you know,
one hundred and twenty yards passing and just no rhythm
midway through that third quarter towards the fourth. But once again,
(28:45):
I beginners roses since that Kansas City game, like he's
having these big drives and he had one today where
he drove down the field keenan Allen touchdown, big throw,
big possession in uh yeah, brutal, brutal beat like the
three obviously people out there that had it. You're happy
you get to push on that spot. But it's some
of the two and a half. It's like, man, it
(29:06):
was lined up right, it was seventeen thirteen. I was like, okay,
two field goal by Chargers here, we still get the cover.
But yeah, the gambling gods. They had another way of mind.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
The Chargers had ten points off of drives where they
were kept alive because of penalties or advanced significantly. Yeah,
because of penalties on the on the Broncos. That to
me is also bad coaching. Like the Broncos had I
think ten eleven twelve penalties today. You could argue that
(29:39):
they lost this game at least in part because the
penalties kept the Chargers in the game. They lost the
game last week because of a penalty. That's bad coaching,
that's bad discipline. They're not as good as their defense is.
They're making stupid mistakes that are giving their opponents opportunities
(30:01):
to keep the game alive. And when you have a
quarterback like bo Nicks, you kind of can't do that.
Like the way they're the way they're calling plays in
this game, they're depending on the defense to make plays
to keep the game close, and you can't make their
mistakes if bow Nicks is the quarterback, Which goes back
(30:24):
to my initial question. They had a fourth and one
of the thirty, like, you got to go for that
because if you make it, then you're just extending the
time that you have the ball and making it harder
for the Chargers to come back if you can't get
another first down. But if you miss it, then you're
in the same exact spot. The Chargers are close to
the end zone if you believe in your defense, believe
(30:46):
in your defense that you'll hold into a field goal
or that they're going to have to go forward and
fourth down and try to score a touchdown. But they
sort of were wishy washy, didn't believe. They just made
the wrong call. To me, I haven't even looked at
like the fourth and one analytics on it, But to me,
the logic is, you believe in your defense, go for it.
If you don't get it, you got to defend thirty
(31:07):
yards instead of sixty yards, but you also bleed the
clock if you do get it. It just was a
stupid idea, bad coaching, bad discipline, bad quarterbacking, all of it.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Yeah, no, it's tough call, and obviously, like you said,
it was clearly the wrong call because they lost the
game and.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
The Chargers had nobody. They lost Najee Harris, they lost
Makai Beckton, their the offensive line was already injured. They
had to replace the entire right side. This was handed
to the Broncos and they handed it right back. All right.
That's the five, three and two on the day Again.
I'll review at the end of the show. Let's take
(31:49):
a quick moment from our friends at hard Rock. We'll
come back, we'll take some questions, we'll talk about some
of the leans and some of the games that we
didn't put in today. Today's show is brought to you
by our new presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. Week three
closes out Monday with Detroit versus Baltimore, and this is
where the sharp separate from the squares. Let's check out
more streaks from hard Rock Bets stats Hub for tomorrow
(32:11):
night's game. You can find live odds to bet on
all of these streaks in the hard Rock Bet at
Baltimore has covered the spread in four straight games, definitely
hoping that one doesn't continue. Tamir Gibbs has recorded thirty
plus receiving yards following a win in five straight games.
Gibbs has also scored a touchdown in a game following
(32:31):
a win five times in a row. Lamar Jackson has
rushed for fifty eight yards and five consecutive Week three games.
DeAndre Hopkins has hit paydirt four games in a row
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love the music that goes along. It's great, It's totally fun.
(34:04):
Speaking of fun, we loved the Colts this week. Didn't
like the number in the contest. We thought ourselves on that.
We just thought this was a much better team. Mistake
on us again, I'll ask the question. The team we
probably wouldn't have played was the Jets, and so I
(34:25):
don't know that it would have made a difference. You
liked the Panthers, you mentioned this morning, it wasn't enough
to knock out Denver Houston, and not more than the Jets,
because we actually had that conversation. Interesting game, I want
to talk about that in a second. I did not
(34:46):
watch more than a play or two of this game
when it popped on red zone. The Falcons had more yards,
more plays, high yards per play, more first downs, They
had three turnovers leading to fourteen points. I'm gonna have
to watch this game because somehow the Panthers also scored
sixteen other points and the Falcons couldn't do anything. Did
you see any of that game?
Speaker 3 (35:06):
Yeah, I watched the whole game thirty nothing, it's just
a really dumb, really dumb game or everything went wrong
for Atlanta. But also my fear of Penix came true
of him being moved off a spot, not being accurate,
you know, off time with his receivers, and he's it's
(35:27):
his true rookie year, right, he played what three or
four games last year in the season. Like I I
just that's why I'm always hold down on this Falcon team,
like he's gonna have growing pains panis so just a game,
Like I said, ten thousand simulations, that's another one that
happens maybe fifty times. Like just Panthers are not a
dominant team defensively, especially with the injuries they had, and
(35:49):
they got to shut out like they dominated even the
red zone. They were really good and stout and like
you said, the turnovers, Yeah got it. Gotta be excited
for a Panthers fan because it's two weeks now that
Bryce has made the throws and you know, Arizona, I
was a little skeptic of them, like that was the
only reason, honest I didn't bang the table for us
(36:11):
with this Panthers team.
Speaker 2 (36:12):
Was that was that? Really?
Speaker 3 (36:14):
Bryce getting back to what he was last year against
Arizona or was that just because their secondary was so
banged up? And you know you saw it today he's
making big time throws and situations and yeah, bad and
missed by us on them and the Colts. And I honestly, again,
if you go back and listen, I said to me,
the Texans were our fifth one, like that was the
one I had on the edge, and I just you know,
(36:36):
got scared off by how much public love there was, obviously,
and how much the line had moved to that Colts team.
But that was probably more telling that we should have
been more confident in it, because that was just all
late professional money and moving that all the way up
to six before kickoff. And yeah, the Panthers, we joked,
I think it was like the third highest bet side
(36:56):
of the week for most sports books Atlanta. That number
went from six to five and a half to four
and a half by kickoff. So once again, the professionals
had a really good week and they were all over
the trends. These those zero to two teams were really
undervalued and they all pretty much bounce back to except
(37:17):
obviously a couple of the ones we picked.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Yeah, somehow that always seems to happen. I hate it
pretty amazing. It's it's so freaking hard.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
That's like, that's the hardest part.
Speaker 3 (37:29):
People don't get that aspect of is that we know
many people listen. That's obviously in the back of our
minds when we talk on Sunday morning, and it's hard
enough that we'll not want to look like an idiot
when everything you say is recorded and printed.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
So not that you had a little bit.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Of deer head of lights this wine, but I could
tell you were like, Jesus, take away with me this morning.
You're like, I knew you had sides you liked, but
you're like, I'm not that confident. I mean even you know,
joking around with you about your love for the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
Thank god you didn't bring them up this morning.
Speaker 3 (37:56):
Oh there's games like that where it's like it was
a weird week. We're just trying to survive. There's a
week's go on. We'll get better data. But we wanted
the four and one. It was right there, four and
five was right there as well. So I'll take a
three and two week and just survive in advance.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
Totally three and two every single week I'd be perfectly happy.
We both wisely talked ourselves out of the Patriots because
we just don't like Drake May who had two of
the team's five turnovers. The Steelers still don't look very good,
not looking for places to back them throughout the year. Look,
we like the Bears all week. They were our brass balls.
(38:36):
They were favorites in our contest Dogs as of this morning.
That spooked us. I know you're in other contests you
ended up playing the Bears as favorites. You may be
looking at the T shirt I'm wearing right now. I
wore it all day. I didn't show it this morning
because I didn't want to sort of attempt the gods.
But I will say that I wore it all afternoon
(38:57):
and felt really really good about it.
Speaker 2 (39:00):
And football is just really stupid. Bears.
Speaker 3 (39:03):
I couldn't believe how well that game went for them,
and everything just felt like it went right where Kleb
played so well. The defense with all these backups. The
guys didn't have talent, but they were hitting so hard.
Anytime the Cowboys touched the ball, these backups punished them.
It was incredible. Uh, But that's why you love zero
to two teams. They're just so desperate. They play with
(39:26):
such an anger and hungry and yeah, like I told Chad,
I took them a minus one and a half and
a couple of their contests. I didn't let the numbers
scare him off. I was just like, this number should
be three. I'm not gonna overthink it. This is such
a bad spot for this Cowboys team after a miracle
win the week before, and you know people want to
(39:47):
give Killable hard time. He did exactly what you're supposed
to do to a bad defense, Like that's he ran
the offense. He didn't try to improve, scramble around, do
all this crazy stuff.
Speaker 2 (39:57):
He did every now and then, but he mostly played
in the offense.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Feel like he's going to start seeing how Ben's just
gonna scheme guys open, and so I know we've got
to keep it moving. I get the next week games,
but yeah, the Bears going forward, there's things to be
excited about. And you can't say that, like you said,
you haven't been able to say that in a while
as a Bears fan. So huge win, it could take
a breather, great cover, and yeah, I wish we had
(40:21):
in the contest.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Look, we talked about it this morning about expectations for
the Bears, Like, I was so excited that they were
competent in a two minutes rill to end the first half.
I texted my son, who's at Maryland, and I'm like,
I'm so glad you were able to see that because
(40:42):
that It's like some parents might feel good if their
kids see their favorite teams that they share win a title.
I'm just happy when he sees confident professional football. We
finally got it. Look, we could have been one in
four today. We could have been on five today. Yeah,
if we had, I'd say we need a couples counseling. Instead,
I'll say we had a vigorous and healthy conversation that
(41:05):
led to very positive outcomes. Simon says Denver two and
a half from last week, Chad loves Love. We got
the Chiefs minus five and a half. Tonight, brass Balls
was the Bears, Rock and a hard Place was the Texans.
That was clearly a tough one, sharp versus square. I
had the Eagles, you had the Texans all right. Early
(41:30):
Leans a couple of games that stood out to me,
but I want to get some of yours too. We
just talked about Atlanta. I noticed Washington on the road
at Atlanta at plus three. I'm gonna tell you right now,
I already bet the Falcons at plus three. My theory is,
(41:53):
if Jake and Danige is playing, this number is going up,
and I'm happy to bet the Falcons again. But if not,
then the wise guys are coming in on the fal
Falkens and plus three. I think this team is not
as bad as we saw today. In certain parts of
the game. The offense clearly was effective statistically, So I
bet the Falcons and plus three.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
Yeah, donate it.
Speaker 3 (42:14):
Atlanta at home plus three not a bad bet, But
I'm not gonna do anything until I know what's up
with Daniels because this number could move three or four points.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
Arizona short home favorite Thursday night against Seattle. I kind
of lean Arizona in this game.
Speaker 3 (42:40):
Yeah, another interesting opening number. I mean, you know, one
and a half.
Speaker 1 (42:45):
It opened one and a half.
Speaker 2 (42:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (42:47):
I don't go too hard early on the Thursday night
games because I need to see the injury report because
it's a short week. But your idea of selling on
Seattle I think is warranted.
Speaker 2 (42:59):
Right, Probably a good time of selling it.
Speaker 3 (43:01):
Or is this a well oiled machine playing against an
Arizona team that Kyler leaves so many plays on the field,
and they should have won that game eight different ways
and he just couldn't get it done. So I got
an immediate no immediate rush to bet that one either.
Speaker 1 (43:19):
Question from the audience, this one from I think Kellen
laws Jets plus two and a half, Jets plus two
and a half? Who do they play in Miami.
Speaker 3 (43:33):
One day night the ether at Miami? Yeah, you are
a sick Oh, my friend, I will again, I guess
I'll take Miami there early. But I get where he's
coming from. That's that's that's an interesting opening line because
they're actually they're looking for Miami money.
Speaker 2 (43:50):
Obviously open that at minus two and a half.
Speaker 3 (43:52):
So again, another game I got no read on yet,
but I lean towards the Dolphins. I just I can't
get over how bad that Jets team is. And you
can pass, you can pass against the Jets defense. I
saw saw Scott banged up in the game too. Yeah. Yeah,
I'm leaning honestly towards Miami. I think they showed a
little something that Buffalo's game, which that could be a
(44:13):
trap itself being sucked in on Miami team's one good
game this year.
Speaker 1 (44:16):
I got to put on my glasses because Vitalis is
asking about Buffalo, which opened at fifteen and a half
and is now up to sixteen and a half against
the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 3 (44:31):
I know it's like you're we're supposed to bet the Bills,
Like I I sn't done any these numbers done yet. Yeah,
I can easily see my model having this said seventeen
and a half because I'm weighted very heavily towards these
home teams, these big favorites with really good quarterbacks against
bad teams. And we saw it last week with the Browns,
Like the Browns defense can hold up for a while,
(44:51):
but if you make if your bad quarterback makes one mistake,
all of a sudden, that seven point lead the good
team has it turns into a fourteen to twe one point.
Soot Me and Chad already know it's probably gonna be
our survivor pick, so I'll probably have betten it as well.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
Like it's just.
Speaker 3 (45:08):
Doesn't get much easier than the Bills at home as
this big of a favorite. I'll look at their look
at their schedule, but that's that's a nice, nice matchup
this week for this Bills team against the Saints team
that you know, the first two games that might have
just been mirage, they actually might be by far the
worst team of football.
Speaker 1 (45:27):
All right, Who am I missing?
Speaker 3 (45:30):
Tampa's plus three? You can get the Bucks plus three
right now with hard Rock. They're playing the Eagles at
home next week. Tampa historically has owned this Eagles team.
I can't believe the line is the short that's so
much respected bigger. I thought this would be Eagles minus four,
four and a half after that win where you know
(45:53):
Baker's def offensive line that's a real issue. He took
a lot of hits and made a lot of things happen.
And the Eagles are much more athletic offensive line or
defensive line than that team he just face. But I'll
take the early number plus three because I just that
just seems like a pros line. But the pros will
bet down and uh yeah, I mean, once again shocked.
(46:14):
I'm looking at a couple of books here already moved
to two and a half, So looks like the early
money yes coming in on that Buck side. And another
game that jumped out to me, Chad, Chad just nailed it.
Pittsburgh didn't look very good today, did.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
They, Chad, They did not sign it.
Speaker 2 (46:30):
They are a.
Speaker 3 (46:31):
Home dog against Carson went to the Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 2 (46:34):
Right now there are plus one and a half.
Speaker 3 (46:36):
Oh yeah, yoe, So I'm gonna grab that now, Tomlin
home dog against the backup quarterback. And was that the
Vikings being that great of a team, or just every
little thing went wrong for that Bangles team that should
have known to bet against something like that whole backup
(46:58):
quarterback harp.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Pounty win at the end of the game.
Speaker 3 (47:00):
Next game gotta fatal like it just never works out
back to that game. So, uh, just an instant line
that jumped out to me. They're making Steelers a home dog.
But that's gonna be very publican tchuck. I think everyone
else is gonna have the same thoughts as me. Uh
one last one Cowboys just got embarrassed. You don't have
to rush to bet it, just in case there's a
(47:21):
plus sixers out there grabbing now they're at home. Believe
they might be the Sunday night game against green Bay.
I know I don't want to keep fading green Bay either,
especially after that loss, but this will be.
Speaker 2 (47:36):
It's just gonna be like the Chiefs tonight.
Speaker 3 (47:37):
It's gonna be every teaser, every bet. Oh it's in Dublin. Oh,
the Steelers are in Dublin against the Vikings.
Speaker 1 (47:45):
Oh that changes it.
Speaker 3 (47:47):
God bless you, Barbara, our amazing producer's that makes way
more sense because I was like Steelers at home the
Carson Okay, God damn, I literally bet it while we're
talking about it too.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
A buy out, cash.
Speaker 2 (48:01):
Out, but on my glasses, so I cannot.
Speaker 3 (48:03):
I saw the fine print, but I just it's whatever, right,
you know who reads the fine print?
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Man, that makes sense? So yeah, that's I know. We
gotta get out of here. Just early reads Dallas at home,
big dog against green Bay. And one last one, uh
Vegas at home dog against the Bears. They're plus one
and a half right now against this Bears team. No one,
no one believes in this Raiders team. They just got
(48:30):
rolled by Mariota. Yeah, so bye, Low, this is easily
I am already gonna I'm guess why Model will have
to send minus two and a half maybe minus three Raiders.
Just looking at it right now, I at least make
the Raiders a pick. Personally, it's like they might be
worse than the Bears, but they're not that much worse.
They're not a one and a half point dog at
(48:51):
home to this Bears team. So I know it's painful
to zag on this Bears team. I just love them
so much today, But it's the business we're in, chat
I gotta do it.
Speaker 1 (48:58):
Steven Martinez last week asked about the Browns, and we
were on the Browns. This week he's asking about the
Colts and Rams. Cults are four and a half point
dogs at the Rams?
Speaker 3 (49:12):
And are we the suckers? How do you not take
the Colts there? So I have to be on the Rams?
What is that line? Four and a half?
Speaker 2 (49:18):
Oh my god?
Speaker 3 (49:19):
So if you want to make the early bet, go
with the public, go the pros. I am as sure
they'll hit this early four and a half, crazy opening
line for that. Just the Butcher's into the Colts again.
We don't believe, and you prove it again like they
did with Tennessee this week. So yeah, I like great
call by him. I came to see how this line moves.
When I first saw it, I said, I'm the sucker.
(49:40):
I right away went to that Colts plus four and
a half. We mean, Chad jump on this call, but
I'm not betting it. I'm gonna try to be patient
with that one because I already can tell I'm probably
gonna like the Rams side. It's just gonna be that's
got to be the biggest public dog of the upcoming week.
Speaker 2 (49:54):
That Colts team.
Speaker 3 (49:55):
They've just been great three and oh against the spread,
three and oh, straight up just dominant.
Speaker 1 (49:59):
All Right, we're gonna get out of here. Everyone can
go watch the Chiefs Giants for the game tonight. I
am on the Chiefs minus five and a half. Simon
has generally been with me, but more likely he is
heavily invested in the Chiefs money line above all else
in that game. Accurate.
Speaker 3 (50:21):
Yeah, I bet the five and a half with you,
like we bet it last Sunday, and I bet it
during the week, But financially very invested heavily in the
Chiefs just winning out right.
Speaker 1 (50:30):
All right, final review of our games for anybody who
joined late and did not get to hear off the
top three and two this week for Simon and I
Eagles minus three and a half, Jets plus seven and
a half, Browns plus eight and a half. We had
the Texans plus a half and we had the Broncos
plus two and a half. This has been Sharper Square
(50:52):
presented by hard Rock Bet part of the Volume podcast Network.
We will be back with our next Sharper Square on Tuesday.
To go over the entire end NFL Slate, watch or
listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, Subscribe
to the channel, download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you
get your pods, Subscribe, subscribe, rate, review, leave us five stars,
say whatever you want, feedback as it gets Until next time.
Speaker 2 (51:15):
I Love you,
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