Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 7 Bets: Steelers-Browns, Eagles-Vikings, Raiders-Chiefs, Patriots-Titans, Commanders-Cowboys and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Swear, presented by hard Rock Bat. We
are a part of the Volume podcast network. This is
the betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad moment and I
am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional
better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Hello, So I'm in Chad. Are we doing dude?

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Too much? Sports? Too much? Sports impolish tonight? I like
Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, Monday night.
I can't stay up this late.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
I love it, but I don't. I have no life,
so this is this is my life. So this is
what I live for. So I saw a bunch of
people complaining about NFL schedule, like there's an the England
game and then you know, we got the two doubleheaders
on Monday, and it's just too much. And I'm just like,
I want it, I want more. I wish there was
after that game ended, I could go for another Pacific
game right now. I wish there was a Seahawks for

(00:59):
you game right now. So between the baseball and the
football last night had all four on the same TV.
It's like, man, this is this is good stuff. Right now.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
I got to get up in the morning. I got
an exercise. I don't have time for staying up till midnight.
Everyone for the sports, We're going to get to this
Bears game, because obviously I'm gonna have strong opinions about it,
but I want to talk about it when we actually
talk about the Bears and the Saints, because you've been
loving the Saints all year, so I want to save
that for that conversation. I do want to pour one out, Simon,
for Brian Callahan, the Titans head coach for all of

(01:33):
twenty three games. In those twenty three games, he went
four and nineteen against the spread, including a historically bad
two and fifteen against the spread last year. He was
somehow two and four this year against the spread. They

(01:53):
covered their first game of the year against the Broncos
at eight and a half. We actually bet on them.
They miraculously covered ten days ago. Go again against the Cardinals.
I know that was a crushing blow for many of us.
Here's a pop quiz for you, Simon.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Are you ready, yes, sir?

Speaker 1 (02:13):
On average? Can you tell me the spread average spread
by which the Titans were underdogs in those nineteen losses.

Speaker 2 (02:23):
But it's six three and a half. Wow, a lot
of respect.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
Closer than I expected.

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Right.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
Can you tell me on average how many points per
game the Titans lost those nineteen games?

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Thirteen, dude, thirteen and a half.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
That was amazing. During his tenure, Brian Callahan not only
was one of the worst coaches in the NFL, yeah,
and the worst coaches in the NFL in history overall
against the spread, he lost against the spread by an
average of ten points per game. That's why everyone kept saying, Hey,

(03:04):
why don't you just fade the Titans. You're gonna make
all the money. Because he was losing against the spread
by an average of ten points per game. They almost
never made anyone betting against them sweat. They were out
of it in nearly every game they played. That's the
end of an era, and that's you know, bad for us.

(03:28):
There you go, except that one game against the Cardinals.
We're all survived and suffered brutal. We went four and
one last week, and our five favorite picks from the
Sunday Morning Show. We won with the Chiefs, the Panthers,
the Steelers, and the Raiders. Should be seeing the graphics.

(03:49):
We lost with the Colts. Make sure you check out
that Sunday Am show if you want the games that
will be our official five after we've had a chance
to review everything. The Tuesday Show is where you will
get our official up to date record for the year. Simon,
we are now nineteen and eleven through six weeks, thirty games,

(04:13):
five games a week against the spread for six weeks.
We are nineteen and eleven. That's not bad.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
No, we'll take it. It's good start.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
This is our Tuesday Show. We're gonna review the entire slate.
Don't forget. You can get the shows at sharper Square
on YouTube. Subscribe and like the video while you're at it.
You can also subscribe to sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify,
wherever you get your pods. All right, here we go.
Got an Amazon Prime game Thursday Night Football, eight fifteen

(04:50):
pm Eastern. Already too late for me. There's no way
I'm staying up past halftime for this game. But I
will have a bet on this game. Did you see
Simon Mike Tomlin's post game pressure when he was asked
about Joe Flacco being traded to the Bengals from the
Cleveland Browns. Let's play the clip.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
Shocking to me.

Speaker 3 (05:13):
Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us,
because it doesn't make sense to me to trade a
quarterback and you take enough of the mak or open
day starter to a division opponent that's hurt in that area.

Speaker 1 (05:26):
All right, Look, he's mad, Mike Tomlin, He's really mad.
Here are the facts, regardless of how mad he is.
And I think this could be why he's mad. Mike
Tomlin as a favorite of five or more on the
road nineteen and twenty nine. We love a rah ra
Mike Tomlin. Spot this, ain't it. I love to love

(05:47):
the Steelers. I don't. I'm not saying we saw enough
of the Bengals in a competitive game that they can
carry forward. I just think the Bengals are the right
side of five and a half.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
That's fair. Yeah, And like I always, I basically pulling
all night at worked through the night to do all
these games. And I skipped this game because I was
just like, yeah, I just I was like, what's the point.
Like my view of it is, I'm probably gonna end
up last minute on this Bengal side just because of
the number. And like you said, I just Tomlin has

(06:22):
a big favorite on the road. It's never appealing to me.
And even even now that you just gave that stat,
that trend, that's a big deal to me. So yeah,
I just I was going through the games obviously yesterday,
and I just as soon as I saw this one,
it's like, don't even waste my time. It's like, I'll
take a side. I already know I'm gonna take the
Bengal side. You know, this number feels inflated, like probably

(06:43):
should be four three and a half, but you never
know we're gonna get from Flacco. So it's tough to
have a ton of confidence in it where it's like
he did like good at periods with that Bengals team
last week against Green Bay. But I don't know, he's
just he's not the type of guy I'm gonna trust.
Let alone have us put in the contest. So, like
I said, I was never gonna waste time in this game.

(07:05):
I'll end up on the Bengals, but with very very
small amount of confidence.

Speaker 1 (07:09):
Chad Millman is not afraid to make a pick.

Speaker 2 (07:11):
Simon, Okay, make one.

Speaker 1 (07:13):
I did. I made the Bengals the pick.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
Okay, there we go, get it.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
Give it guess what on Sunday, I don't even know.
If you make it to this game nine thirty am Eastern,
we're gonna wake up and we're gonna get Trevor Lawrence
and the Jacksonville Jaguars in.

Speaker 3 (07:35):
London International Waters, the land that love forgot.

Speaker 1 (07:40):
I I gotta say, I hate these London games and
I hate the Monday night doubleheaders. I'm with the fans
on this. I feel like they are they're they're not
serving the sports fan, They're not giving us what we want.
Watch the Monday night football double headers for you. I
don't watch there you actually, I don't watch the England games.
I think they're boring. I end up doing a million

(08:02):
other things in that window so I can get ready
for the one pm games. It's a there. At like
twelve forty five, I check in. I'm like, oh, look
what happened in this game? Los Angeles Rams Jacksonville Jaguars.
Lines come down a little bit. It was plus three.
We talked about it Sunday. You leaned Jags on Sunday.

(08:24):
I think the Rams played down to the level of
their opponent. They struggled against the Texans in Week one,
had a hard time putting the Titans away in Week two,
Take the Eagle to the wire and lose, Take the
Colts to the wire and win. Struggle and lose against
the depleted Niners team, struggle against the depleted Ravens team.
So should we assume the Jags are good and they're

(08:45):
going to be good in this game? Pook is questionable,
not easy at all to recuperate when you got to
travel the way they're traveling, you know, stuff swells up
on the plane.

Speaker 2 (09:00):
And I'm shocked this numbers already moved. I thought I
would hold just because there would be so much Rams love.
And yeah, we're it's a weird season where teams are
four and two and we're trying to pick them apart.
And that's just how it is in the NFL. Soo
the Rams are four and two? Yeah, could they easily
be six? And oh, I agree. They're a team that

(09:22):
you know, is really good. What we say, they have
little weaknesses here and there are bad bounces here and there,
and that's just that's football. That's why I love it
so much. The the whole league is just interminal. It
feels like, right like the worst teams, like the Giants
who think they just want a super Bowl even though
they don't know a winning record. And the Bills and
Eagles fans the season's over, they're packing up. They're both

(09:44):
foreign too, So it's like it is, it's like that
meme of the two pitchers, the guy looking out the
window and the guy looking at the mountain side. It's
it's how you perceive it right now. And this this
Rams team, I think I'm in agreement with you that
I just think it's early year. They're still a little sloppy,
sloppy enough that this Jags team could get them. Like
this is a Jags line, like a three chop around.

(10:06):
There's still threes out there. I'd be on the Jaguars
here because, like Jeed said, it's these international games are sloppy.
They're dumb. A football head like me, I love it.
On the background, I love it, you know, running around
all the sports books Sunday morning, the games are on,
people are in the books watching. I don't know, I
just love sports obviously. I just love football so much.
So it's it's a shit show every time. Like Chad said,

(10:29):
so I'm gonna take the Jags who are used to it.
We know the Rams are a better team. This is
not a Trevor Lawrence bet. This is honestly a bet
on the flukiness, the randomness of London and the fact
that we're catching points on a team that honestly feels
pretty equal to this Rams team right now. I was
shocked that it was three. The movement makes sense professionally.

(10:52):
This is gonna be all Jags money, Like I honestly
think it's gonna be one more public sides this week,
just because people are thinking, just like me, they're gonna
see the trends the Jags win, they cover when they
go to London, and why would you take the minus
three on this ramps And if you can get plus
three in this jack set, so it's too interesting. If
it holds it two and a half, If it's minus
two and a half all week, that's gonna make me

(11:12):
feel them better about getting the three, just because that's
gonna be such a key number obviously in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (11:18):
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Trevor Lawrence because he's still trash. Like, honestly,
you're always going to be betting on the Jags in
spite of Trevor Lawrence and you look at his stats
every game. You look at his stats and you think, oh,
pretty good. Like if you don't watch the games the
way we do, and you just sort of watched the
game that's on your local broadcast and you root for

(11:40):
your team and you know you're you're hearing about the
Jags every once in a while, you see how Trevor
Lawrence he's he's doing okay. Trevor Lawrence was pressured twenty
three times against the Seahawks. He was sacked seven. You
can blame the offensive line. You would be just wrong.
Blnn Trevor. His average time to throw in that game

(12:02):
was three point one seconds, so that was the third
longest in the NFL. That's worst, third worst of the week.
His oline didn't blow it, Trevor did. He's just talented
enough to be tantalizing, to be interesting to think, oh,
he can do it, and then he's truly a hindrance

(12:22):
to this team. He really is, like if they had
someone who was a little bit smarter. And I know
that sounds nasty, like I'm calling him dumb, but what
I really mean is like someone who reacted better to
what was happening on the defensive side of the ball
and moved quicker and understood the scheme of the offense better.

(12:47):
They would be a juggernaut. The way their defense is playing,
the way their line is playing, they would be awesome.
He is the problem on this team. But yeah, it's
a jack spat. Unfortunately, it's a bet. Las Vegas Raiders.
We loved him on Sunday. They did us fine. At

(13:09):
the Kansas City Chiefs. We loved him on Sunday night. Dude,
that was just phenomenal. All flowers for you because we
were on it from the early part of last week
and it continued to move in the Chiefs direction even
though all the bets were coming on the Lions and
it kind of was never even a sweat big move.

(13:33):
After the money night game, Chiefs were ten and a half,
went to eleven, went to eleven and a half, even
touch twelve before started to see some buyback here. I
don't know, man, it's a bad spot for the Chiefs.
Like Mahomes is a favorite of more than three, which

(13:53):
he usually is, is just not going to be a
winning bet against the spread, I will tell you. As
a double digit favorite in the Division five and five,
so it's not it's not an auto play. On the
Raiders like we would think it is.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah, And it's tough for me with this Chiefs one
because I'm I'm like said thankful to them now because
that's probably that was probably my bigger bets the year
than Ats wise the Chiefs last weekend. It's it's always scary,
right that exact spot, betting so heavy on a team
against the Juggernaut like Detroit is. But we joke all
the time. People they moan, they complain about the Chiefs
and their refs. In primetime games especially, you can make

(14:33):
money off of people. You can either complain about it
or profit or you can cash. Right, So you have
years and years of evidence and you were the sucker
because every time you're in Detroit on that spot and
it's just I try to explain to people at the time,
it's like I don't know these things. Old heads know
these things, and I'm luckily you know these guys who
can tell me, like, hey, this is the same spot here,

(14:55):
this is there's a lot of signals here in the
trend's point to it. So this week, like Chad said,
there's no real trends here at the favor the Raiders
other than like I feel like I take the Raiders
in this spot against the Chiefs. It doesn't matter if
it was Derek Carr or whoever. They have some reason.
They've always played really well against the Chiefs and held
up even when they were bad. Like bad defense will

(15:16):
be all this stuff. So patient, patient, patient. I'm looking
at hard Rock Live here in New Jersey just went
to twelve. A couple of books out there already moved
to twelve and a half. I mean, who's gonna be
fighting us on this number? The public is gonna like
last week?

Speaker 1 (15:29):
Nobody?

Speaker 2 (15:30):
Yeah, last week I talked about Green Bay getting them
down to six six and a half, five and a half.
You can do the same with the Chiefs this week.
A lot of people are going to be doing that.
I will stay away. I will either be on the
Raiders at the number, maybe a little on the Raiders'
money line. Just stinky, stinky game here, dude, plug your nose.
It stinks. The Raiders can easily get rolled. We all

(15:51):
know that they also gonn just have a meltdown type
of game where the Chiefs are getting rice back. The
vibes is gonna be higher. This is I think a
one pm start, So that's ten am for both these
teams kind of in a way, right, like that's I
know that Chiefs around West Coast time, but it's right there,
and I just there's been fluky games at this exact spot,
these day games, with these matchups between these two teams,

(16:13):
and the Raiders is a big dog. So not giving
it out yet. I want people to be patient, just
seeing the way the number is going. Let's see if
we get thirteen. At thirteen, I feel comfortable taking this
number on this Raiders team. At eleven and a half,
there's no need, no need of rushing them, just a
dead number.

Speaker 1 (16:28):
Yeah, And look there are if like we always say,
if you squint, you can see certain matchups that that
might benefit I can't.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
It's all on that I'm trying to me. You hate
GENO right now, we hate Geno. Well, geno matchup.

Speaker 1 (16:49):
We totally hate Geno. But here's here's why. Like, just
other than the number, other than the number, if you
need something to hold on to, you need a little
handrail on the roller coaster, the Chiefs rush defense is
just truly bad, worse than the NFL. If the news
out of Las Vegas is true, and that Pete Carroll

(17:10):
is just getting super frustrated with Chip Kelly and the
way he's calling these games and the minimal amount that
he is putting Geno Smith in a position to throw
the game away. And Gino is he just wants to
Ashton Genty to get the ball. If they can give
the ball to Ashtroon Genty, will they be able to
take advantage of a Chiefs defense that cannot stop the

(17:32):
run right now or a flip side. Is Bag's going
to know that they won't trust Gino and just stuff
the box and make it impossible for them to run.
That's sort of where it gets tricky and a little
bit of a chess match.

Speaker 2 (17:45):
But and we talk all the time that Max Krosby effect.
This is totally dream matchup for him. He's either got
a backup tackle or a rookie tackle who's banged up.
So Max, every time we bet the Raiders, we talk
about but it really is Scrisby effect. He wins. He's
been winning us bets on this Raiders team. Honestly, Yeah,
he has been trying to lose it for us. So

(18:06):
he's just an absolute game record game changering. This is
another favorable matchup rahim against an offensive line that wasn't
exposed against Detroit and Hutchinson, but you saw there are
there were chances there just Mahomes is getting the ball
out of his hands in two seconds.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
Yep, totally true. And this is one of those backdoor
games where either Gino was gonna win it because the
back door is going to just barge through that back door.

Speaker 2 (18:33):
I'm praying for a twelve nine game, or the.

Speaker 1 (18:36):
Back door is open and Gino's gonna let them walk
right in because he's gonna throw a pick six when
they're down by like ten with three minutes left.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
You I wish I could have more confident this one
because it's an insane number. But it just it's crazy
watching Gino's film, it's so brutal right now.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
It's terrible, truly terrible. I can't believe I'm doing this.
Miami at Cleveland Cleveland minus two and a half. It
jumped from one and a half to two and a
half while we were talking on Sunday. It totally makes sense.
This is a Browns game. We said on Sunday, there

(19:18):
are certain spots you're going to bed on the Browns.
The number one factor is when this defense is at home.
We have in theory, at least the more confident coach,
we have the much much better defense. We have a

(19:38):
Miami defense that is bottom ten and Semmi offense. I'm sorry,
that is bottom ten and sack percentage bottom ten in
sacks allowed. A rush defense that is as bad as
Kansas City's in the most superficial metrics and the advanced metrics.

(19:59):
It's like they go out of their way not to
stop the run Simon the sooner. It's like they're saying,
the sooner they start, they don't stop the run. The
sooner Mike McDaniel is going to get fired. There's no violence.
They are the pacifists of defenses. The Cleveland Browns minus
two and a half are Chad choice, Chad choice? Are

(20:22):
you sure you want to do this?

Speaker 2 (20:24):
Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? We
can't run from way out show up. Dues can just
see it, you know what I mean? Well, Chad, everyone
has a choice to make in life, and you've made yours.
And it's the Cleveland Browns, and what are.

Speaker 1 (20:42):
We gonna do? Three games that came down to Chad choice.
I will tell you the other ones came, but one
of them it just might be on too late for me,
and I can't abide by that. So it came down
to this in another game, and in the end, I
just decided I was doing the research yesterday. I'm like,
I can't believe this is the game, but it is.

Speaker 2 (21:06):
I'll take it. I'm on it with you. The pros
are on it too. We're seeing a couple of books
trred to pop at three, So definitely grab it. Why
you can't, I mean, unfortunately it is minus one twenty,
but I think it's worth paying that for this line
at minus two and a half, and it's a tricky,
tricky spot and a number that I think reflects a

(21:29):
lot where it's like the pros again and they see it.
The general public won't. I think the majority of them
will come in on Miami because, like you just said,
it's a brown seen that just looked very futrid. These
last couple of weeks, many are calling for Shador to
get his time, like what had Dylan Gabriel done to
deserve these continuous starts? And this is the the Svanski.

(21:51):
You don't win this with this kid. How does ownership
not make a change, right? I mean, how many chances
can you give this guy. I know they gave him.
They gave him leeway because it wasn't his. Watson was
not his. That was not on him. But what he's
doing right now with your door and Gabriel, it's bizarro world.
Like if you're opening moved Flaco, you're omitting. You're punting

(22:11):
on the season. If Gabel's not doing it, especially in
this matchup against this defense, you have to make a
QB change. So I agree with it. I like that
how desperate this Brown team is going to be. Defensively,
this is a great spot. Like you said, I think
offensively with Gabriel, this has to be the spot from
the show up. This is a bad secondary. I mean,
we've talked all year about it. I didn't envision their

(22:32):
D line being as bad as it's been this Miami team.
They've been futured as well, So come on, you have
to be able to move the ball here. You got
a running back that can run it. You need a
quarterback and put you downfield with Judy Tillman, they have
pieces they can move it downfield with us. So I
like display chat. It's really too about the number. Like
like I just said, hopefully people can hear this and
get this minus two and a half. To me, that's

(22:54):
why I think it's the right choice for you here.
It's a good pick here on Tuesday.

Speaker 1 (22:57):
So I guess what I don't understand is I don't
really blame Stefanski for these moves, Like, hey, they got
rid of Baker, that wasn't his idea. They traded for
Deshaun that wasn't his idea. They've now gone all in
on Flacco. That's not his fault. Like Mike Tomlin called

(23:18):
out Andrew Berry. Why is it like Stefanski has done
the best he can do with a terrible situation, and
he keeps getting quarterbacks who are not close to replacement level,
and so why should he get fired? Why isn't the
GM getting fired.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
Fair? It's all fair, But at the same time, it's
he had if he if he is just a puppet,
then yeah, you're right, but he has to be making
decision at this point. He can't be letting. He can't
be still getting railroaded by a GM that's failed to
a miserable like you just said, in so many different ways,
I just don't believe that. I think a lot of
this is I just never thought he likes you to Door,

(23:58):
I think that like you said, I think the gym
made that pick or the owner did, and he's never
liked it. Where at this point you just at least
have to see put him out there, let him fail,
and no one will ask again. Someone like me will
not care. I just think your Door is a gamer,
and it's like, right now, Dylan Gabriel at five to
eleven not athletic, doesn't have a big arm, what are
we doing here? This guy will never be a pro

(24:19):
in this league. It does you need to at least
do one thing great in football and five categories. He
is zero for five in all the categories. So I'm
just I'm not seeing it with your Door. We've at
least seen the arm, talent and some of the athleticism.
So that's just my push against the fans get this point.
It's just this to me is the dream matchup. If
at half you have three to zero points, you must

(24:41):
make a QB change ownership. I believe will make a
call at that point. It's just stupid of a matchup
not to put up points against Miami. Like you said,
it's a good number, good spot for the Browns. Defensively,
offense needs to show up against his bad Miami defense
and we get some weather.

Speaker 1 (24:58):
Yes, that would be nice, right Slop. Listen, I agree
with you on Shador and Stefanski. If he's not playing Stefanski,
that's not the GM, that's just Afanski being stubborn and
he's not doing any better with Dylan Gabriel that you know.
Back in the corporate world, we used to call that
a pocket veto, right like the big boss would come
in over the top and say, you got to bring

(25:19):
this person in. I want you to try to develop
this person, and then they would never do anything with
the person, just pocket veto. And that's what that will
begin to feel like with Shador. So let's see if
that becomes a factor with Stefanski and the Browns in
the coming weeks. Let's get to it, man, New Orleans
Saints at Chicago Bears. The Bears are five point favorites. Listen,

(25:42):
someone like what they saw last night. This line actually
moved from four and a half to five to five
and a half at a lot of places right now
after the bears last second win over the Commanders. Let
me just set the scene for a second. I was
so frustrated with Bears last night. I actually forgot I

(26:03):
had bet the Bears at plus four and a half
and because Caleb Williams. I don't think. I don't think
Ben Johnson was putting Caleb Williams in spots to succeed.
He was calling plays that third and one call, that
fourth and one call, Like Caleb is not the guy
who you can give a play call where the first

(26:24):
read isn't going to be available immediately. He's just he
doesn't play that way. Like he gets in his head,
he runs backward, he gets caught in the in the rush.
That's just not his game. It's also not his game
to throw intermediate passes accurately on third and long. That's
not how you're going to win games with Caleb Williams.

(26:46):
I thought the Bears did a great job last night.
Their defense was awesome, except for three miscues by Dennis
Allen where he wasn't rushing the passer with more than
three or four when he should have been. The penalties
were ridiculous, Some tiki taki, some just sloppy and undisciplined.
I'm really glad my phone died before the end of

(27:07):
the first half, so I got to avoid all the
angry emotional texts from all my buddies. I didn't get
anything charged again until the end of the game. But man,
it was a roller coaster. A roller coaster is a
better a roller coaster as a fan.

Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, you're too tough. You should be elated how good
your team is. In fact, you're three and two. I mean,
is insane. You should not be three and two. Your
minus fifteen point differential it has to be the first
team infl hissuy to win back to back road games
twenty five to twenty four just bizarre world type of
stat that is. I don't know, You're just not a

(27:48):
good team, but you have a good coach, a quarterback
that can make plays, and you're getting bounces going your way.
So I'd be really excited as a Bears team, like
you're I see the path, I see the future. There's
gonna be a lot of grind pains. Like I said,
Caleb's winning a new offense, a very complex offense. This
is year one, this is a five year plan. So

(28:08):
you just want wins. You want to see a guy
that can win, like Justin Fields could not win. Justin
Fields is never gonna win these games, you guys have
been winning. That's why you got a guy like Caleb
Williams who doesn't have those scars, those wounds. He can
win these games and not overthinking, even if he's not
doing much Like that swift at the end there. That
was really why I love your head coach, where it's

(28:29):
like he knows his run blocking scheme. He saved a
couple of plays. They knew it was gonna work against Washington,
and it did, and they got those first where it's like, sure,
did you guys get lucky in the fumble? Yes, Like
if someone that had the money line on this Bears
team I saw dead one thousand, one thousand miles away
where it's like, oh, this is gonna land on five.
The professionals were right for hammering this in the four

(28:50):
and a half because, like we said, we didn't understand
the movement. They got unlucky, We got lucky. The bounce
has went our way. That's that's why we love Betton.
That's the best betting. These ugly dogs got away with
the one for sure that Bears game, So I get
your hesitation on them, but you know right now they're overvalued.
But like we said, They're a team that knows how

(29:12):
to win right now, playing against a team that doesn't
know how to win and a quarterback that doesn't know
how to wins. So five and a half obviously might
be on the Saints. Am I gonna be as big
into them as I was last week? No, this is
just playing the number against what I think is an
overvalued Bears team. But yeah, the Bears. With the way

(29:33):
your guys defenses, especially against the run, who you to
be catching minus five and a half against anybody, let
alone a team that can run the ball like the
Saints kN So just a bad number of feels like.
And yeah, like you said, the early movement was on
the Bears professional when he's with the Bears. So that's so.
I'm just gonna wait this one out. I'll take a
position on the Saints case it goes down for five
and a half, But no, not a real big bet

(29:55):
yet for me on this one. I just I can't
believe the line movement.

Speaker 1 (29:58):
To be honest with you, all right, We're gonna go
from an ascending team that makes their fan base proud
except for me, to a championship caliber team that is
frustrating their fan base. To no end and maybe the
single biggest cause for Simon Hunter's depression. Philadelphia at Minnesota.

(30:25):
Minnesota is a two and a half point underdog.

Speaker 2 (30:30):
No, it's all Phillies. I've never been happier in life. Honestly,
life has truly never been better. I wish I care
more about the Eagles, like I try to have Giants
fans texting me after that game, because literally every guy
worked on the Jersey for the TV show they were
Giants fans. They were all from Seaside Heights, Seaside Park
on North Jersey guys, and I literally couldn't stop thinking.
I said, you, guys, watch that Saquon doc. I really

(30:52):
can't thank you enough for giving the Saquon Barkley greatest
season potentially of my life. Guy set the whole time
record two thousand and five brushing yards or all purpose yards,
and we've got a Super Bowl. So I think I'm
still just numb to it where it's like, yeah, I
want the Eagles to be better. They're four and to
a top of the division. It's Eagles fans are just
too We're spoiled, So like, yeah, how he's made bad decisions.

(31:14):
We've got guys retiring right now. It's all negative on
this Eagles team. So my Simon says, bet this week
is the Minnesota Vikings plus two and a half.

Speaker 1 (31:23):
It's Simon says, presented by Hard Wreck.

Speaker 2 (31:27):
Bet call miss Simon, what do you want? I want
to play a game? What kind of game? Simon says,
out line that I think is gonna be moving. I
think this is gonna come down. Could easily see it
get down to one and a half. Eagles have a
ton of injuries that are unknown right now, So Jalen
Carter would be a big deal. I think he's gonna play.

(31:47):
I don't think Quenyon Mitchell is gonna play, which that
to me is the biggest Yeah, like Koc is a
genius attacking teams weaknesses. He was already excited about the
number two corner of the Eagles. Now you can be
a number excited about the number one and number two.
I mean, we'll see what they do about Cooper Gene.
But like as much as I love the kid him

(32:09):
one on one with Jefferson or Addison, that's not where
you want Cooper de Gene playing. You want him as
the second guy coming down or the guy covering the
middle of the field, not the guy on the outside
against two speedsters. So it's a bad matchup, bad number.
This is still an Eagles team that's being priced as
if they didn't have a ton of problems, and I

(32:31):
think the public will battle. Why would the public be
backing Carson Wentz. You know, not that he hasn't looked bad,
he hasn't looked good. But I just think people are
just not thinking. They're thinking this is a bounce backside
for this Eagles team where it feels like a Minnesota
spot offensively and defensively. The problems Eagles have up front
of the blocking, the injuries, all of it. I don't

(32:54):
know if this is the kind of game you get
right again, So shier Ani saying all the right stuff,
he said, they've used the extra to try to fix
this offense. You're lying to yourself. You think two to
three days of extra time because they played on a
Thursday's gonna fix this offense. I just think they need
to get guys back healthy on offensive line. So yeah,
it pains me to do. I got this line of

(33:14):
a pick. It's two and a half. That's a key number.
I'm gonna give that out every time so Simon says,
give me the plus two and a half on this
Vikings team.

Speaker 1 (33:22):
If you had a choice right now, would you rather
have Nick Sirianni or Kevin O'Connell as your head coach.

Speaker 2 (33:34):
I can't turn my back on a guy that gave
me a super bowling. I'm telling you, chaed I'm you'll
see you'll get one. Not that's in the nineteen eighties.
It's the high of highs. It's like, I wish I
was more upset about this ego season, but it's like
I'm still living in the past. I'm not gonna lie.
Like I watched that Saquon doc and then I literally
rewatched the thirty minute Super Bowl little mini version, so

(33:55):
it's like, it's Sirianni did it. I gotta get the
guy credit. I hated him, thought he was an idiot,
a buffoon. Whatever he does, it works. So he's not
hiring his best friends to be the OC. Not great idea,
but we'll see what happens going forward. He to me
is the right man for the job. KOC couldn't even
beat the Giants at home in the playoffs. That's what

(34:18):
I'll say about him.

Speaker 1 (34:20):
You're so funny it's like Eagles fans. The number of
Eagles fans I know who have rewatched the Super Bowl,
have watched the Saquon doc, have done everything like have
just relived and relived and relived the glory. Look I
wanted to talk. I literally have a VHS of like

(34:41):
the Bears NFL films nineteen eighty five hour long, you know,
celebration of their season.

Speaker 2 (34:53):
You'll always have Devin Hester super Bowl Return. And I
was there for that, and I watched that clip a
million times. I might have been a Bears fan. It was.

Speaker 1 (35:00):
It was amazing, totally amazing.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Last time with the flashes. That's why I love it
so much.

Speaker 1 (35:04):
That's right, that's totally Oh my god, four iPhones before
you're so right. Yeah, that's one hundred percent accurate. By
the way, Darren Rivell gave me that VHS tape. It
was a gift, you know. All right, Look, the basic
stats are true. Though we don't know if Jalen Carter
is going to play. We don't know if Queenya and
Mitchell is going to play. But either way, this is

(35:27):
a defense that is twenty first in the league EPA
per play when they are playing. So I think You're
right about how it's being prized. Value is on the vikings.
Here is there value simon on the New York Jets
is two point underdogs hosting the Carolina Panthers. Oh god,

(35:50):
winless teams. This is from Killer Sports. Windless teams as
home dogs week seven or later since nineteen eighty nine,
forty eight and thirty nine against the spread.

Speaker 2 (36:00):
But look, I was hoping that was gonna be better.

Speaker 1 (36:05):
This is a trend, the law of averages, regression to
the mean, whatever we want to call it in terms
of this can't keep happening. Is the only reason to
bet on the New York Jest this week. It's not
even like sometimes when you're making a bet in situations
like this, a gross bad bet, it's like you have
to believe in the unseen. This is I think we

(36:29):
have to disbelieve what we have seen because what we
have seen is so bad. The coaching miscues, the playing miscues,
the strategic miscues, the utter incompetence. This isn't a team
that's sort of been unlucky. This is a team that
is truly horrendous and lacks any kind of skilled play

(36:53):
at just about every position. So we know we're getting
the Panthers at a high. We know we're getting the
Jets on a low. We've loved the Panthers the past
couple of weeks. How are we betting on the New
York Jets? How are we doing it? How are we
asking people to do it?

Speaker 2 (37:10):
This is sharper square. Obviously the square side is easily
the Panthers the sharp deads of.

Speaker 1 (37:16):
Course it is.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
It is a game where if you've been betting with
us on these ugly dogs, you do have to hold
your nose unfortunately and take the Jets. But you can
be patient. Like we said, the number is moving. I
believe Garrett Wilson might get put on IR or something
he might miss, Like a couple of weeks, they're saying
he might have a real injury. So you know, he's
their best weapon. That should keep moving up. We should

(37:38):
keep getting a better number. But confidence wise, it's it's
not there for me. But like Chad said, trying to
be smart, trying to play the numbers. And I've talked
about this whole Rice Young home thing, and I got
to stick to it because I have staked my name
to it. Now that he is a different they are
a different team, a different offense on the road. How

(37:59):
do the Jets not get one here? But my god,
do I hate this team? Like I'm trying to lie
to myself to be like, well, maybe I'll have the
confidence by Sunday to get this one in the contest.
I just don't know if I'll get there, because I
just they got They got one last week that should
have been their win. They're so poorly coach they couldn't
even steal that one. So there's no doubt this game could.
Things won't bounce their way like they did last week. Right,

(38:20):
Everything was going their way last week and they still
couldn't win that game out right, So get us up
to two and a half, I'll have more confidence. Get
me up to three, I'll really be flying. But at
plus two we are right now hard rock. I'll throw
a little taste on it, but I'm not gonna be
too aggressive with it. Just no one's betting the Jets.
It's it's only it's only us like this, That's what
I'm saying. This is gonna be the sharp side. The

(38:41):
square side, no doubt, would be this Panthers team, which
you know, as as great as that win was last week,
it's again, it's not that this Panthers team feels incredibly
fluciate three and three, but you see what you need
that team offensively to be to hold up against with
their defense. So we'll see Becau again. Justin Field is

(39:03):
not the best passer either, but it's like, come on, Fields,
this is a good matchup for you at home. You
got to show up here, especially if you laid such
a huge egg last week. So yeah, it's it's a
gross one. And the more I talk about, the more
sick I get thinking about taking this Jet side. But
you gotta do it.

Speaker 3 (39:19):
You having an unnatural allegiance to losers and it's not
like you.

Speaker 1 (39:23):
Everyone on the Jets looks disoriented.

Speaker 2 (39:27):
Oh my god.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
Yeah, that's how we're going to be on Sunday if
we bet this game.

Speaker 2 (39:32):
They're making Aaron Rodgers look good, like there's a clip
flying around now Rogers on the Pat McCabe show, like
after the fact and being like, why'd you guys even
fly me out here if you're just gonna tell me
you're going a different direction in like a minute conversation.
Just how weird His all interaction was with Aaron Glenn,
Like the guy was kind of a cocky asshole to
a guy like Rogers. Just very bizarre, the whole thing.

(39:53):
So just from just a train wreck and we're betting it,
we're leaning into it. Just this is what we do.

Speaker 1 (40:00):
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(41:23):
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one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee,
and Virginia. New England is visiting the Tennessee Titans with

(41:43):
their new coach, interim coach Mike McCoy, formerly of the
San Diego Chargers. In the mid teens. The Tennessee Titans
are seven point underdogs. I think on Sunday night this
game was at six and a half, and you and
I we're both pretty excited about the Patriots just because

(42:04):
of Rabel. We thought this was a Rabel game obviously
a revenge game for Rabel, who no longer gets to
coach against the guy who took his place less than
twenty three games twenty three games ago. But I think
the coaching change actually changes everything because we do have

(42:25):
the dead cat bounce in effect, which, for those who
don't know, it's getting that team that's pretty much dead
but gets a little bit of a bounce when they
get a new coach. Can it overtake the revenge spot?
Is the dead cat bounce effect stronger than the revenge

(42:46):
spot effect? Simon?

Speaker 2 (42:51):
I hate it? Yeah, because you're right. I was legit
excited to be on the Patriots the second week, and
I was at the point where I was like, even
if it was minus seven and a half, I'd still
try to dig in and take this game. Because this
is the type of game where Rabel will never let
off the gas. If he finds any type of advantage,
if his drake may is cruising, or they find a
running game which they haven't had all year, he will

(43:12):
punish this Tennessee team and that ownership. Now Chad has
nailed it like Tennessee, you expect the spot for them
to bounce back here so I don't know what to do.
I know it's the the obviously, the sharp side's gonna
be Tennessee one hundred.

Speaker 1 (43:29):
It's a Tennessee to me, it's a Tennessee player. Nothing.
I'm gonna give you one. I'm gonna give you a
stat here, Okay, other than the dead cat bounce. Teams
playing their third straight road game coming off a win
and a cover, like the New England Patriots. Yeah, thirty
four against the spread since nineteen eighty nine, and they
got a big number to cover. Seven is just a

(43:50):
big number.

Speaker 2 (43:51):
And it's two straight highly emotional, last minute wins. Like
it wasn't like they rolled and it was easy in
both games. It was very intense, high pressure, high leverage situations.
That's a great stat.

Speaker 3 (44:05):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (44:06):
The four letter word Company is the only book right
now with a seven and a half. You gotta grab
that if you can, right, you gotta grab Tennessee plus
seven a half you can. But man, just just like
the Jets, Chad's nail on it, where it's like this
is sickening, but we gotta do it. I mean, I
don't want to say what my model number is because
people are gonna talk shit to me because it's this

(44:27):
number is so off compared to it where it's like
I I have way way too much overratedness respect fort
I see team. I was just gonna fade it anyway.
It's like my dumb ass competer is a no. This
guy Callahan can't coach himself out of a box. This
man is an idiot. But like you said, they they
maybe they got rid of it. It's the bounce back spot.

(44:48):
I'm gonna I'm gonna agree with Chad here. But this
is another sickening spot this week. A lot of a
lot of really sickening best I've heard of. Last week
we were all chalk, which was fun. This week it's
all ugly, ugly, ugly home dogs.

Speaker 1 (45:00):
It's so it's really it's it's almost like we're going
back to twenty nineteen.

Speaker 2 (45:08):
I mean, I wouldn't mind a bad week. Chet. I
want to cut my hair. I can't cut it because
you keep winning. Yeah, So it's like I wouldn't be
the worst thing to go two and three, but I've
said I want to win. You know.

Speaker 1 (45:19):
It's funny. Last night my phone died in the middle
of that Bears game, and I finally had enough juice.
You know, I didn't feel like I want to get
my computer or anything. I finally had enough juice to
start texting again at the end, but I like, there were,
you know, one hundred text messages with my friends about
the Bears, and I didn't want to start jumping back

(45:40):
in because I didn't want to jinx it because they
were driving right when I was able. When I got
some juice back, I'm like, I'm not jumping in until
this is over. It's killing me. I want to engage,
I want to talk, I want to be excited. I'm
just going to ignore it because I don't want to
be the one that fucked this up because it could
have been so I agree. I don't think you can

(46:01):
ever get your hair cut again, because I think we
just got to keep winning. If we keep winning Indianapolis
at the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chargers are one and
a half point favorites. You like the Chargers on Sunday
when it was one. It's moved in that direction. Like,
I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I
think you know the If anything, it's just the culture

(46:23):
overrated right now. So that's why you're getting value on
the Chargers. We're not seeing anything in the Chargers that
we like. Their offensive line is just terrible, their defense
is struggling. Everything about them looks like they are a
mediocre team, and the Colts look great. So it's another one.
We're just playing a number here. I don't have a

(46:44):
ton to say on this game, to be honest, Like
it's not a game I'm targeting.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
Oh my god, you'll come around on it. This is
this is almost Simon says, seriously most Simon says, yeah,
like early early in the week, but this is gonna
be the bigger, sharpest game where the public is going
to be all over this Colts team for good reason.
We've talked we love the Colts too, they're five and one.

(47:10):
But let's really dive into it, like this is a
team that is playing at a really high level. But defensively,
I think there is a good matchup here for this
Chargers team, and that's going against his Colts secondary that
can be passed on and you know, hopefully Johnson's back
for that offense because him, Lad and Keenan Allen, that's

(47:31):
a potent three. That's a really really solid three. And
you know by Dell and no name a guy they cut.
You know, the Chargers brought back to be the running
back against Miami. Looked good, It looked fresh, run, good
legs running the ball. Obviously, Colts run defense is better
than Miami's run defense, but at least there is some
someone to turn to an hand the ball two that

(47:52):
can push the ball where much try I should on Hampton,
but there was weeks there where would just run in
the back of his guys in the line. He just
looked like a rookie trying to find his feet out
there where I doesn't feel the same. But it really
is just about this Colts defense that I just don't
trust them. I think this is going to match for
this Chargers team. And you're asking a lot of Daniel Jones.

(48:12):
You're asking him to keep being an above average quarterback.
And we're into week seven here, so through all these weeks,
like I said, he didn't play that great. Last week,
someone posted some crazy film he was like nine for
nine against the pressure. But just out of this world,
really really well, playing really high level right now, Daniel Jones.

(48:32):
So that's why I'm not making it. Simon says, I'm
not banging the table here yet. But I can just
tell you from talking to pros earlier this week, this
is going to be a pro side, this Charger side.
Colts are due for a letdown. Like they're five and one,
could easily be six and zero. We've talked about that
that Rams game, how fluky the game that was. This
is just the way the way the NFL is right, Like,

(48:56):
you're not going fifteen to one. I got a good year.
This cold team would be eleven and five, like they're
gonna drop some here. So this just feels like a
spot with the Chargers that especially someone that lost a
ton of money betting them last week. I don't with you.
I don't really want to be on the Chargers either.
I like their defense, their offense. Like you said, there's
still a bunch of questions, but my model has it

(49:19):
in minus three. It's still minus one, minus one and
a half in most books. I'm gonna grab that because
I know the pros will bet it up to two.
I will be shocked by time people hearing this if
a couple of books don't pop the two. Because I
know some really respected money they're gonna come in on
the Chargers today. So it's an interesting line and Uh.

(49:40):
I'm excited to see what the public does with it,
because if it's like that Chiefs game where it was
like eighty percent of the money was on a road
dog again, I'll probably have to take a large position
in the Chargers. I hate myself while doing it, but
it's like I can't avoid those spots. In those situations,
the public forces my hand and they don't know what
they're doing, and they're giving me a good number.

Speaker 1 (50:00):
I have been into the Chargers have really hurt our feelings.
Two in the past three weeks. You know, we've been
on a tear honestly, and when we've lost, it's been
whether we were in the contest or not, it's been
because of the Chargers. I think that which is excruciating

(50:20):
to think about, to think that we're going back to
the well on Justin Herbert, I guess, I guess.

Speaker 2 (50:29):
Okay, Like I know it's gross.

Speaker 1 (50:33):
Okay, Can I interest you? You said we're not doing
anything sort of favorites Chargers a little bit. I'd like
to interest you in the Denver Broncos, who have the
visiting New York Giants, and the Broncos are seven point
home favorites and believe it or not, I think they're

(50:57):
undervalued like the Broncos here. I like playing favorites that
are defined as good teams, which the Broncos are. They
got a winning record through six weeks. They barely won
last week. They're going against a team that just won big.
That is a historically winning proposition. And I think any

(51:22):
sort of advantages we think the Giants have, whether it's
Jackson Dart and his mobility or camp Scataboo and his
dynamic nature, I think a lot of the excitement that
the Giants have shown that people have been enthusiastic about.

(51:43):
They've won two games at home, they got crushed on
the road. They won against a depleted team in the Chargers.
They won against a struggling defense in the Eagles. They
are not going against a struggling defense in the Broncos.
They are going against a legit. We are fully healthy,
we are awesome. We can do whatever we want, especially

(52:05):
against a rookie defense. Nick Benito. Nick Benito could be
defensive player of the year. Pascertained was Defensive Player of
the Year. I like, I wanted to find a way
to not back a seven point home favorite with Boone
Nicks as the quarterback couldn't do it. It's the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (52:25):
Yeah, I took Sunday night. It's like a piece of
the Giants because they're a plus seven and a half
and I just I thought that was a good number.
You might get a six and a half chat there's
a couple out there, so yeah, yeah, I know this
could get down to a spot you like it. My
fear of it is that's just which has been my
issue with Denver all year is bone knicks. Like the

(52:46):
numbers aren't good. He's inconsistent his feet. Everything he's done,
like his footwork has regressed from last year. There's just
that's the big negative part. Where you're right like this
Denver defense every week and win them and keep them
in games. They're just dominant. You know, nine sacks last week.

(53:08):
A lot of those are on just the fields. But
it's also that's how good they are, where it's like
they're just we talked about it sor you know, having
a shutdown corner you can bring five because you have
a guy who you'll need a double. Ever, you always
can just have the one on one shutdown so I
can't hit your play. I won't disagree with it. Yet
because it's I really my only stance on the Giants

(53:30):
was because of the number at seven and a half.
At six and a half, even at seven, I could
be talked in this Denver team it is. It is
a nice spot against this young team that you would
normally think extended time like they had since Thursday is
good for a team, for someone like them that's super
immature and doesn't know how to handle winning, probably not
the best. I can't I can't imagine how they handle

(53:53):
those extra days and how they've handled practice this week
compared to a Denver team that has to feel like
they lost. I think Sean Payton treated that way in
the locker room. It wasn't smokes cigars riding around London
on their bus. It was kind of a lot of yelling,
we got lucky, we need to steal that one. Let's
get the hell out of here and get back to
Denver type of game. So I'm with you, it's you

(54:14):
don't expect them right of a letdown after international game
like we saw with Cleveland last week. They're just not
the same team. So I can get there for gaut
six and a half at seven, I'm indifferent. As we
say here right now.

Speaker 1 (54:24):
Yeah, I actually in my notes, I'm like, I'm waiting
until six and a half. I would take the seven
if I feel like it's not going to get there,
if I see the Jews start to move in a
direction that shows it might go up to seven and
a half again. But I really like the Broncos here,
I just do better. I think it's a coaching mismatch.
I think it's a situational mitchmatch. I think it's a

(54:47):
scheme mismatch. Bo Nicks has generally played better against bad teams.
This is a bad team last week, set aside, right
team's coming off, teams coming off, and set win is
a home dog of more than four points. That is
the New York Football Giants forty three percent against the

(55:08):
spread since nineteen eighty nine, Killer Sports, How does that
make you feel better?

Speaker 2 (55:15):
No? But it sounds right. Sounds right.

Speaker 1 (55:18):
Green Bay the perpetually disappointing Green Bay Packers against the
perpetually disappointing Arizona Cardinals, who either lose when we need
them to cover, they cover when we need them to
not cover. I don't know if Kyler Murray is going
to play. I don't know if Marvin Harrison is going
to play. I don't know if the backup running back

(55:38):
who became their starting running back who dropped the ball
at the end zone against the Titans is going to
be playing hard game to handicap because we just don't
know who the players are going to be.

Speaker 2 (55:48):
Yeah, I guess, I guess I'll avoid it. Honestly, I
wanted to be on Green Bay. This is a good
number for Green Bay, but I'm with you, there's too
much unknown for me to bet into this at this point. Uh. Surprisingly,
I would feel better, honestly if it was Kyler Murray.
But we've talked about Kyler Murray as a dog. It's

(56:08):
the only time to back them super profitable. I just
can't separate my hate probably from this areas in the
team and this Green Bay team. At some point they
are gonna be undervalued by the general public, right. That's
they just they haven't put together a couple of weeks now.
They have not put together enough for me to be

(56:29):
confident enough to bet in them as a big favorite.
But this is a This is a good number, Like
my model is at seven and a half, they're six
and a half. I should be bening Green Bay, but
I just don't know, just the same way I thought
about the Bills, where it's like the Bills they were
getting too much respect on the team that are currently not.
I think it's the same for Green Bay, where it's
like this feels like a number based off still just

(56:51):
public reception wise of what they've done in the past,
where I honestly thought this would be like four and
a half and I was gonna have great value in
Green Bay. I could give them out, but it's six
and a half. I'll still give him out a still
good number, But I just I don't know what to
do on with this one yet, not knowing the starters are.

Speaker 1 (57:07):
It's interesting you say if Kyler was the starter, you'd
feel better, because I would too. Like Jacoby. I just
I feel like with Jacoby Brissett, the floor is obviously
significantly higher and sort of consistent, and the ceiling is

(57:28):
much much lower, like you kind of know where you're
going to.

Speaker 2 (57:31):
We talked about what this year this has happened with
these backups have started look good in game one and
then yeah, once they have a little bit of tape
on them game two, they fall off a cliff because
it's like you can't gamescript the same twenty plays, you
can't run his favorite ten plays again, Like it's just
doesn't work. So that that's another reason where it's like
kind of interesting with your presett in the spot that

(57:53):
we've seen this year, basically every team, the second start
by the backup has been pretty much a disaster. Other
than Jackson Dart or I guess even dag and Dart's
second start.

Speaker 1 (58:04):
His second start was a disaster. Yeah, he looked totally
like a rookie, and then he got to go up
against a terrible defense in the Eagle, so you know,
he looked like a Hall of Famer Again, He's a
lucky guy. All right, Well, let's put a pin in
that one because I want to talk about it on
Thursday in case we get news about Kyler Orr. By
the way, maybe we start feeling differently, Like just talking
about Jacobe Brissett in the second game as a backup.

(58:26):
You know, I'm starting to think, is Michael Parson's just
going to have his breakout game as a Packer Washington
at Dallas. Dallas is a two point underdog. There's actually
a book out there that has Dallas at one and
a half. If you're interested in the Commanders, so go
shop around and like I get the number here. The
Commander showed a lot of flaws last night. Against better

(58:48):
teams than the Bears, they would have been blown out
wouldn't have been a question at all. So to me,
I think you can just narrow down the difference between
last week and this week to better quarterbacks. Dak is
playing like an MVP.

Speaker 2 (59:05):
He just is.

Speaker 1 (59:06):
He's playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
And if he had a defense that was remotely complimentary,
the Dallas Cowboys would possibly be the odds on favor
to win this division right now. Instead, they're two point
underdogs at home because their defense is tragic. I don't
really have like a strong opinion on this one like

(59:26):
I do other games. I'd still lean Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
Here, burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the
heart of the lone Star State is a galaxy of
extraordinary football players.

Speaker 2 (59:39):
They are the Dallas Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (59:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (59:42):
And for people asking about totals like the under here,
it's a gross under The total of some books hard
Rock included is at fifty five and a half. So
Divisional game, I get it. Both both defenses are bad
people expect a ton of points. You've seen division game
can just be ugly and sloppy sometimes, and because these

(01:00:03):
teams just know each other so well, it doesn't matter
how bad their defenses or how banked up the defenses are,
just can get really fluky in that way. And I
am shocked how much respect professional money is coming in
on this Cowboys team, because it's not just one book
at one and a half. There's a ton of books.

Speaker 1 (01:00:20):
That's been going on since we since we started the
show then.

Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
So I honestly wanted to be on the Commanders here.
I'm like, Chad au Wait, talk to people, see what
I'm missing. I just have them great as a higher
as a better team right now because of health where
you know, think Terry mcclarmy's gonna be back for this game,
not the biggest dealth he's not, but it still would
be improven. But the Cowboys, you go through their injuries,
I don't know if they're going to get any of

(01:00:44):
these guys back, like it seems like it's gonna be
another week for them being a crobbly banked up defensively
and across the offensive line. So Dak once again playing
an MVP level. I think he is eleven touchdowns one
pick in his last like three or four games. He's
just been incredible. It really is about the defense. So
I get why the pros are coming in on this

(01:01:04):
Cowboys team at two and a half. I get it
makes sense for the early line movement. I'll be patient.
Like Chad said, Washington is not a good team. I
just think they're a better team than Dallas is right now.
So this flips and I can get Washington is a dog.
That's the position I'd rather be on. If you're trying
to force it right now, grab a two and a
half on Dallas. I don't hate it. You're joining the

(01:01:27):
professionals early here on Tuesday, and they obviously they see
something they really like in this Dallas side.

Speaker 1 (01:01:34):
I feel like I'm just sharp today. I'm on a
lot of sharp sides. You are, Yeah, you're locked in,
locked in. Let's talk about the prime time games. We
got a primetime spotlight. We're all going to try to
watch them, even though they start, you know, at ungodly hours,
and the only person who didn't stay for that is Simon.

(01:01:55):
We know you're gonna want to bet them, so we
want to package our games into a primetime spotlight. First
one up Atlanta, San Francisco Sunday night. The forty nine
ers are two and a half point favorites at Hard
Rock Beat. Still a lot of threes out there. I
would like to play the Niners here. It's really a
question of Rock Party. I think I'm just waiting to

(01:02:17):
find out is he going to play or not. Kyle
Shanahana said on Monday that he was hopeful of Brock
Party and Ricky Piersoll would both be doing positive things
and making progress in practice this Wednesday, so a little
more for Thursday show. Atlanta's defense totally legit, totally legit.
They're doing great things. I just feel like I'm going

(01:02:40):
to fade a team that just beat the Bills on
in prime time because I know I'm getting probably at
least half a point or a point of value. On
the other side.

Speaker 2 (01:02:50):
I don't know about that Atlanta defense. They gave up
thirty of Carolina in twenty seven in Mariota and he
was backing up for Washington, so I do have questions.
They did look good, they played well, Honestly, Josh Allen,
just an off night. I mean there's nothing more brained
in here, and the old guy in the back corner
of the sportsbook saying, Josh Allen's got weak legs now
too much sex being married? It's like, d out man,

(01:03:13):
what are you talking about? He just had an off
night that was a disaster from the get go. So
I don't know what to deal with Atlanta. I can't
get a read on them. I'm like you. I I
was like, initially, don't we just back to forty nine
ers here? Especially now that it's moved to two and
a half. This was three, it's now two and a half. Yes,
I feel like that's where we're supposed to be. And

(01:03:34):
I'm a sucker if I go the other way, and
I'd take Atlanta. But I don't know. It's like, like
you just said, Atlanta's offensive clicking. Their defense as bad
as they can be. They had moments in that game,
but they looked really competitive. But yeah, everything in my
body is just telling me forty nine ers are probably
the right side here. But once again, this is life

(01:03:57):
without Fred Warner. What is this going to be? Like? Check?

Speaker 1 (01:04:00):
That's a great point.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
Now and bosa yea and am I my model not
accounted enough? For you can survive the Bosa loss, you
cannot survive losing Fred Warner. I mean, now you're going
again to arguably the best running back in football, and
Pejn Robinson. It's like disaster, disaster, disaster. It's just I

(01:04:22):
feel so bad for him. So I'm trying to find
reasons to back this foreigners team. I think I'm slowly
talking myself into this Atlanta side, and that maybe the
value isn't caught up yet to this, the destimation of
all these injuries. And even if Purty does come back
and Ricky Parcels does come back and Kittle does come back,
that's gonna be a huge approvement to their offense. What

(01:04:43):
do they have left defensive that they've lost argall be
the best player, most important player in all football to
a defense. I couldn't have lost him. So maybe maybe
we'll be lucky I can avoid this one, But something
tells you I'm not gonna be able to avoid it,
and I'm grabbing the two and a half. Probably won't
get off this call on this Atlanta team.

Speaker 1 (01:05:00):
Oh man, you nailed it. I totally forgot about Fred Warner.
I was so focused on Brock Purty the Niners. I mean,
obviously they'll be able to clean up some of this
during practice this week, but they lost that game arguably
because of communication issues when Fred Warner went out, like
there was at least one touchdown and multiple plays that

(01:05:23):
did not get covered because they were not communicating, and
the guys who were sort of in new positions, no
disrespect to them, just didn't know what they were supposed
to do and got confused by the motion. So that's tough, man.
I wanted back the Niners. I hate the Falcons. I

(01:05:45):
hate the number. I just don't think it's like I
think Beijon is great. I'm a little bit down on Pennix,
like he is too often getting caught up when his
first guy isn't open.

Speaker 2 (01:06:00):
I told you that coming in the year.

Speaker 1 (01:06:01):
Totally, totally, But I feel like I feel like they're
getting They're getting greater, a little too high because of
how good their rush game is and because Bijon. The
rest of the world is catching up to what a
lot of professional betters have known for a while that
Bijeon is legit top three player in the NFL with
what he can do, and last night he was spectacular.
But I worry that they're still overrated.

Speaker 2 (01:06:25):
It's fair.

Speaker 1 (01:06:34):
This Monday night doubleheader. I'm just so freaking mad about it.
I just really am Tampa Bay Detroit Detroit minus four
and a half. It's the game one of the doubleheader.
I'm very excited to hear your opinion on this game.
As the true blue Baker backer. They against against the odds,
against the professional betting community, against everything that is sane

(01:06:57):
and holy. You have been backing Baker a week after
week or after week and been rewarded for your loyalty.
Four and a half the numbers move from five and
a half. This is a Detroit spot if there ever
was one in a vacuum. And I'll explain what I mean,
but before I get any further, I just want to

(01:07:18):
hear your opinion.

Speaker 2 (01:07:21):
Yeah. I talked a little Sunday night that I saw
the line. I was like, oh my god, I'm going
to have to back Detroit R and I and surprisingly game.
Only real bet I made is the under in this game.
The total I think was fifty three and a half
and it's come down to fifty three. Still like that under.
This really is about this has to catch up in
Tampa now. If Mike Evans comes back, that is a

(01:07:44):
big deal for that offense because that's just something. Even
if he doesn't stretch, you feel like he used to.
That's a guy in the red zone that just against
these young corners, backup corners that Destrotroit team will have,
you will win one on ones and Baker will give
him multiple chance to win that one on one. He
knows where his money is made, so that to me

(01:08:04):
is a big thing. If he comes back. I think
he is because the early line movement has been towards
this Bucks team. It's gone to come back. It's down
to four and a half now, So you know Detroit's
got injuries, they got guys getting suspended, you expect expect
Man Campbell historically bounce back game against a Baker team

(01:08:28):
that yeah, this is technically a Baker line. This is gritty.
Baker usually covers back towards his number. He is so
due for a bad Baker game. Three pick Baker game,
Like we know that he has that in his bag.
It's it's Baker. So it's all there for the bounce back.
Detroit shockingly make this number minus six and a half,

(01:08:50):
so like, I can't believe it. It's it's it's really
about the injuries to this Bucks team, I believe, and
all the injuries they've had compared to Detroit, who does
have injury put historically their offense in these spots just
role teams. And I'm gonna dive into the trends and stuff,
but I just feel like every time Campbell has a
day where the fourth downs don't work like the previous game,

(01:09:13):
the next game they go five for five on fourth
downs or whatever it is. I know I'm probably just
making that up, but it feels that way because he's
the seventy percent cover like they didn't cover last game.
Usually these are the spots they bounce back and cover,
so I know, I know, Jad it's sickly going. It's
my guy, Baker. He's been so good to me. He's
one of the few guys who I've just been betting
every week and it's just he's just you know, don't

(01:09:34):
need to watch because he's gonna win it for me.
But I do watch because I love love the ride.
But yeah, this is this is Detroit number Detroit line,
and I'll probably end up on that side.

Speaker 1 (01:09:42):
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because I
didn't want to have a fight about this because I
love Detroit here. I'm worried about, you know, the lack
of corners and Brian branch has has already been suspended.
He can appeal, he might, he might be able to
play this weekend, but.

Speaker 2 (01:09:58):
He's gonna lose that appeal.

Speaker 1 (01:09:59):
I think I think we got to expect that he's
not going to be playing this weekend. It's a Lions line,
are you kidding me? The Lions at home in a dome.
Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career.
So this includes the Rams, but mostly the Lions. Sixty
nine against the spread. This is the spot.

Speaker 2 (01:10:21):
Hello Detroit, you.

Speaker 1 (01:10:27):
You got to back the Lions here. I love the
Lions here. I'm so glad to hear you say that,
because I was afraid, like we're going to have to
have a big debate about this and.

Speaker 2 (01:10:38):
On Baker. I would have been on Baker, but I'm
gonna trust my computer because I know I'm too close
to it. It's like, I just love you.

Speaker 1 (01:10:43):
Are very close to it. It's the best you do,
you do and it's great and it's a roller coaster.
It's the difference between you and me. You love that ride.
I want to stay off that ride. I want that
ride to be smooth and easy from the start, from
the start of the game. I just want to be right.
I don't want the ride on the way to being right.

(01:11:05):
That's the difference. One more Monday night game.

Speaker 2 (01:11:12):
All my righted friends about for Monday.

Speaker 1 (01:11:14):
Night Houston and Seattle. I said I had three games
I was thinking about for Chad's choice. I went with
Cleveland minus two and a half against Miami. The other
game was going to be Denver in the Bank and
the Giants, but I wanted to wait for the six
and a half. This was my other game, Houston plus
three and a half Monday night football against the Seattle Seahawks.

(01:11:40):
This game's going on at ten pm Eastern. There's no
way I'm going to be up for this game.

Speaker 2 (01:11:49):
What's up. Take a little nap midday, you'll be up late.
Take a nap from like one to two. Give you
an extra two hour boost that night.

Speaker 1 (01:11:57):
I don't know, but I got to like, you know,
I like to exercise in the morning, and.

Speaker 2 (01:12:01):
It's even better. Work out so hard you pass out after.

Speaker 1 (01:12:04):
That's just rough. It just you know it throws off
my whole schedule. I bet the Texans at plus three
and a half, the first bet that I actually made.

Speaker 2 (01:12:13):
Look at Chad sharp, Chad.

Speaker 1 (01:12:15):
Look, we love the Seahawks after their win over the Jags,
and the defense is great. I think the Texans defense
is actually better across like the cool kid metrics. The
only area where the Seahawks are measurably better on defense
than the Texans is against the run. The Texans are
actually mediocre. But I actually, in a weird way, think

(01:12:37):
that plays into an advantage for the bet because it
means the Seahawks, who have historically been bad at home
under Mike McDonald, like demonstrably worse at home. That plays
into the bet because maybe they'll just try to run
the ball more and chew up the clock and it's
going to be a lower scoring game with more opportunities
for the Technans to keep it close. So give me

(01:13:00):
plus three and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:13:02):
Boom, Yeah, love it. Don't understand this line at all.
Three three is right, Three two and a half feels right.
I cannot believe we're getting the hook. I mean the
total is forty and a half. So anytime you have
a little total like that between two good defenses and
they're giving you the hook. Don't think it. Just bet
it Houston and the side this is. I mean, we

(01:13:24):
don't really talk putting Monday night games in. This could
be one of them that we do because it's like
an insane, insane number. Seattle is good. Are they three
and a half points better at home in this Houston team?
No chance. And I just looking right now at the
early money, it is all all Seattle. So might you
might be able to get three and a half later

(01:13:45):
in the week. It might hold there just because it's
so much Seattle money right now, But have to think
respected professional money will come and take a large position
on this Houston side. It's just all the trends. Everyone's
gonna have the number of sched just talked about. They're
just not the same team Seattle at home. They're not
what we were used to in the mid two thousands
of just a dominant home field advantage has not been

(01:14:06):
that way, especially the last five six years. So three
and a half with the hook, can't avoid it, love it,
gimme Houston plus three and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:14:14):
I'm a little worried that we're going to have to
have both Detroit and Houston in the contest, and just
like it's going to be a miserable Monday.

Speaker 2 (01:14:26):
It'd be tough because we nailed obviously last night we
went to and up we were on Atlanta and yeah,
and it's like, are we really going to keep rolling
the dice and think we're gonna have just keep crushing
these primetime games because primetime games people have probably seen it.
Dogs have been unreal on these primetime games the last
couple of weeks. I think like it's and it's all
outright wins too that I'm thinking of. I think the

(01:14:47):
Chiefs are the only favorite I can think of. That one.
Is that crazy? I think that's right.

Speaker 1 (01:14:52):
So yeah, it's uh yeah, the Giants.

Speaker 2 (01:14:56):
Now love Detroit, love Houston. This this could end up
being eric On, which is crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:15:01):
Like, I'm looking at our lineup right now.

Speaker 2 (01:15:04):
I got a lot of games we like though.

Speaker 1 (01:15:05):
We liked Cleveland minus two and a half. That was
Chad's choice, leaning New Orleans plus five and a half,
So that'll be a conversation, Simon says, was Minnesota plus
two and a half. Oh yeah, you know, we're going
to talk about the Jets as underdogs. We're gonna We're

(01:15:25):
definitely going to talk about Tennessee as an underdog. You
love the Chargers minus one and a half. Oh, you know,
I really want to bet Denver. I'm hoping to get
the six and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:15:39):
It really sounds like I'm getting my haircut this week.

Speaker 1 (01:15:42):
Oh I know, right two. We're too confident truly of.

Speaker 2 (01:15:47):
These games, which last week I knew it was gonna
go week because I was like disgusted with the games
with us.

Speaker 1 (01:15:51):
Hated every game last week, Like I felt like, if
I can get out with a winning week, I will
be thrilled. I pressed, I pressed bet with every bet,
I had zero confidence. I'm like, that's a loser. That's
a loser.

Speaker 2 (01:16:04):
It's like.

Speaker 1 (01:16:07):
Giving away every bit of the money that we made
this year. You know, Like we're going to pay attention
to Atlanta, we love Detroit, we love Houston. Like we
got seven or eight games that I feel good putting
in the contest right now in a mix of favorites
and underdogs.

Speaker 2 (01:16:27):
Can't wait.

Speaker 1 (01:16:29):
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Thursday with these games. I
just discussed that we are zeroing in on We'll have
our sharp versus square head to head battle our brass balls.
Some good candidates, Good candidates for that one. Download some Spotify,
Apple Pause, wherever you get your pause rate, review, subscribe,

(01:16:50):
leave five stars, say whatever you want, feedback as a gift.
Till next time, Love you,

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