Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 8 Bets: Packers-Steelers, Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-Broncos, Browns-Patriots, Bears-Ravens and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Beat. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. Is this the
betting show that makes the square? Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention? I am Chadmullman, and I am joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my bff,
my compadre professional better, Simon Hunt.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
Hello, Simon Chad, what's up? Brother? Well?

Speaker 1 (00:28):
Listen, we've kind of entered by Mgeddon. Do you know
what that means?

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Does this mean there's a bunch of bye weeks?

Speaker 1 (00:38):
That means that there are six teams with buys this week.
That is the most of any bye week in the NFL.
So that means we don't get to fade the Raiders.
We don't get to wring our hands about the Rams.
We don't get to wonder in awe at Sam Darnold.

(00:59):
We don't get to think about how we're gonna bet
the Los Angeles Rams.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
We don't get to wonder.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
If Jacoby Brissette will keep his job as the starting
quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. All those things are off
the table. Our options will be severely limited, both for
betting and for survivor. Also I'm sad to say it's

(01:29):
time for you to get a haircut, my friend.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, it's welcomed. I'm looking forward to it.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Look, we went two and three last week and our
five favorite picks we won with the Browns and then
the Lions. Last night we lost with the Chargers as
favorites and the Texans and Titans as underdog. All three
of those games we were undone by the AFC South.

(01:55):
The Coldes crushed us with the Chargers, the Texans could
not do anything. We're going to get into that, and
the Titans there was no bounce, but it was just
a dead cat. So twenty one to fourteen for the
year with our.

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Five favorite picks.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
Through seven weeks.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
Tough one, tough one.

Speaker 1 (02:18):
All right, this is our Tuesday show. We're going to
review the entire slate. Make sure you check out the
Sunday Am show if you want the games. That will
be our official five after we've had a chance to review.
I know, before we get into the slate, we will
be relaunching our free to play contest. I know people
are frustrated who have listened to the show for years
and we've had this contest and now we're talking about

(02:41):
a different contest. That's just the breaks of the game.
We're really frustrated by it. We're bummed by it. But
the good news is because hard Rock is benevolent and
knows how committed our audience is, we are going to
be relaunching the contest. We're just getting through some of
the final sort of ranglings. That contest will have dynamic lines.
Those are going to be the lines that we're always

(03:02):
going to be talking about and referencing, So we will
dispense of talking contest lines during the week. I think
that has been causing some people some confusion as we
have gone through the season.

Speaker 3 (03:16):
Rest Asshirt.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
When we are talking about the games we are betting,
we are as explicit as possible. We say we like
a game, we like a game, we give a number
that we like that game up until and we will
keep talking about how we're betting that game and at
what number regardless. So I want there to be clarity
on that. I know there's frustration and confusion, but we

(03:42):
will be very explicit about the show and.

Speaker 3 (03:45):
The lines we are betting. When we were talking.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
About this on Tuesday and Thursday, don't forget get the
show as a sharper Square on YouTube go subscribeing like
this video. While you are at it, you can subscribe
to sharper Square on Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get
your pap.

Speaker 3 (04:00):
We got some Thursday night football on Amazon Prime.

Speaker 1 (04:04):
Minnesota Vikings at the Los Angeles Chargers lines ticked up, Simon.
It's gone from two and a half to three. Feels
to me like that could only be a wise guy move.
And I don't get what anyone who sharp is thinking
about if they're piling in on the Chargers, unless they're
just thinking, I want the number at two and a half.

Speaker 4 (04:26):
Could be just Also, it's a short week, you know
that's can this keep getting worse and worse for this
Chargers team that they've just been embarrassed.

Speaker 2 (04:34):
They've been terrible this year. So I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (04:37):
If I haven't taken a position, I'll take the three
and a half on the Vikings if I can get it.
Just a bad game, Like, how do you trust either side?
You trust Carson Wentz?

Speaker 2 (04:46):
I mean not really.

Speaker 4 (04:48):
I guess we trust Floor's defense. But with Herbert we've
seen it time and time again. He can play really
well for a quarter or two, get big leads and
if they can figure out some things on their defense,
they can it stops against Wentz.

Speaker 2 (05:01):
They should win this game. But I just cannot trust
his Chargers team. I know.

Speaker 4 (05:05):
It's like we keep seeing every week and it keeps missing.
They're at the rock bottom. The books keep moving their number.
But yeah, for them, you gotta pray if you're betting
the Chargers, you get Joe Allt back because this could
be a long day with that front line against this
Chargers team for the Vikings. So yeah, three and a half,
that's the key there. It's like hard Rocks at three.

(05:27):
I'm not in a rush to play either side at
that number. Like you said, the sharpside probably was Chargers
minus two and a half.

Speaker 2 (05:33):
That's that's a fair bet.

Speaker 4 (05:35):
But three and a half, once we get to that number,
it's like, Okay, on a short week, I'll take Koc
against a mintter defense that's just been terrible.

Speaker 2 (05:43):
Chargers defense has not been good.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Look, they've been as bad as this offensive line has been,
and it's been dreadful. Like Justin Herbert is playing with
guys in his lap on nearly every play and they
can't get any rush game going. But this defense is
just that's what upset me on Sunday is it just

(06:06):
looked like they rolled over every single time the Chargers
offense got anything going. They made a little bit of
a comeback, they put a dent into the lead against
the Colts, the Chargers defense just laid down and gave
it all back. And to me, that's as big an

(06:26):
issue as this offensive line. And unfortunately, this Chargers defense
is kind of healthy, like there's no it's not sort
of cluster injuries that we've seen on the offensive line.
It's the standard injuries that every NFL team gets, and
they're not able to really respond to that right now,
and their defense is getting worse and worse every week.

Speaker 3 (06:48):
There is a little bit of drama.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
Kevin O'Connell would not commit to Carson Wentz as the
Vikings quarterback after their loss to the Eagles on Sunday.
He even dropped the name Max Brose, the undrafted free
agent second string quarterback from Minnesota Golden Gophers, on Sunday
like saying, if Carson couldn't go back in because he
was beat up, we were ready to put Max in.

(07:12):
So I feel like there's a lot of frustration. I'm
glad we are agreeing that this cannot be a game.
We are committed to. Thank God, Thank freaking God. Look,
can we say the same about the Miami Dolphins traveling
to Atlanta where the Falcons are seven point favorites. We

(07:36):
are going to talk about the betting on this one,
but first I want to play this clip that I
came across yesterday. I just loved it. It's got discussed disappointment, frustration.
It sounds like a parent who has had it with
his kids doing the same stupid shit day after day
after day, and it's just gone full exaggeration.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
Take a listen.

Speaker 5 (08:02):
Yeah, he's gonna say the stamps this league, and he's
gonna their start of this week. And my expectation is
that we don't throw ten picks.

Speaker 1 (08:16):
Come on, how many coaches, like I know, we're sort
of waiting for Mike McDaniel to get fired, But how
many coaches get up there and are so sarcastic they're
like three picks, ten picks? We all know what I'm
talking about here. Two has been trash. I love that clip,
loved it. I love Mike McDaniel for saying it.

Speaker 4 (08:36):
Honestly, I'm gonna give him respect I think it's a
higher level than that. I think he's doing to Tua
what Tua did literally the week before, which is throwing
his defense under the bush because he had a good game,
Like he came back against the Chargers, he felt like
he did his job, so he came out just through
his defense. And now you know he's coming out there
just throwing two exactly two he did the week before.

(08:57):
So I'm shocking. It feels like that's actually a little
bit of a higher level there from a guy I
am with you. It feels like everything he says is nonsensical.
He's a very out there kind of guy. But I
kind of get it. I kind of get what he's
doing there.

Speaker 1 (09:09):
That's really interesting. I didn't get it at all. I
totally thought of that as something very Yeah.

Speaker 4 (09:17):
I think that was layered right there, because why would
he do that's He's never done something that egregious or insane.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
Right, He's always very sort of supportive.

Speaker 4 (09:26):
Yeah, Like again, when he's nonsensical, Okay, he's just a
crazy person. And that was like he was dialed in.
He was ready for that one. That one was in
the back pocket. So my model likes Miami. It's probably
a good Miami number. I can't do it, can you?

Speaker 2 (09:40):
Do? You have the confidence?

Speaker 1 (09:42):
Well, here's the thing, Like, I'm glad to hear you
say that. You and I have not talked about this game.
My models are flashing green for Miami.

Speaker 3 (09:52):
Really, oh yeah, mainly.

Speaker 1 (09:54):
Mainly because of the spot exactly like team's getting blown out,
teams being undervalue, bad teams off of loss being undervalue.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
Right, that makes sense.

Speaker 3 (10:03):
All of it is.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
You know, if you do any kind of sort of
situational or top down betting, that's this is what you do.

Speaker 3 (10:11):
You bet Miami.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
And look it has come down a little bit. It
was seven and a half, it's come down to seven.
So somebody's taken a piece of the Dolphins.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
But situation seven half obviously.

Speaker 1 (10:22):
Yeah, situationally Bejon Robinson may run for ten thousand yards
in this game.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
Like the Dolphins.

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Thirty first in EPA per run, thirty second in success rate,
thirtieth in explosive run percentage allowed, twenty eighth in yards
allowed after contact, thirty second in yards allowed per game.

Speaker 3 (10:48):
So it's it's rough man.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
Yeah, And we've talked a little bit Atlanta there.

Speaker 4 (10:58):
It's an interesting team because their quarter is so young
and new, and you saw in that you know forty
nine ers game, they.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
Did the best they could. They just put it all
on him.

Speaker 4 (11:09):
Again, we haven't been talked about fur nine ers that
this week, but like that, well, the job Styli is
doing that coaching Tantum might be the best in the league.
So Fenix, he's just seems like he's a different quarterback
on the road overall, and you know this season, we've
seen it this year. He's just better at home. I

(11:31):
don't know what it is. Maybe it's inside control weather,
I don't know what it is, but like he dominated
or intually dominated.

Speaker 2 (11:39):
He he played really well.

Speaker 4 (11:41):
Against a Buffalo team, like he just didn't turn the
ball over. He kind of played inside of his game.
And Washington they put thirty four points. We've seen them
on the road, you know, a Carolina game that was
a big deal, that was an interesting spot. So you
know them losing thirty to nothing, and then they go
on the road against fort niners at least twenty to ten.
The offense is just an emic without Fred Warner, without
Nick Bosta, and they still couldn't muster more than ten

(12:02):
points here against Miami. It's all right, they should be.
There should be the spot for Atlanta. So maybe I'll
be patient, let it get to six and a half.
But if it does ever get to that seve and
a half number, I have to take.

Speaker 2 (12:15):
I have to take Miami at that point. It's just
two indoors.

Speaker 4 (12:19):
With his offense and that run game, they're gonna put
up points that Cleveland. That's not who they are, that
Cleveland game.

Speaker 1 (12:25):
Right.

Speaker 4 (12:25):
Even as bad as Miami's been this year, they've moved
the ball and put up points controlled environments pretty well,
So which we know.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
We're supposed to do.

Speaker 4 (12:33):
Chatt here, I think we both just we're so grossed out,
disgusted by the way this team is and the way
they are going this season. I just I don't really
put my money against with Miami Chicago Baltimore.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
Baltimore is a six and a half point favorite. It's
just been sitting there. You peg this one on Sunday night,
looking to take Baltimore. You said to be patient. I
actually thought it might come down a little bit, but
if you look at the juice, it's kind of trending
towards seven. I'll spare you a lot of my strategic thoughts,

(13:10):
but shoot, I'm starting to fall in love with Baltimore here.
It's not a Chad's choice, but it very nearly was.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
Yeah, I really liked the Ravens for the spot, but
the fear would be.

Speaker 4 (13:27):
Just Lamar is a fully right and we're betting into
something we have no knowledge of. We have no idea
if his hamstring is heel and if it's Lamar the old.
Because we talked before he sat out, I couldn't get
over the guys chasing him down that Chiefs game.

Speaker 2 (13:39):
It was like, I just you had people in.

Speaker 4 (13:41):
Supports me to be like he lost a step, and
it's like, no, he didn't lose a step.

Speaker 2 (13:44):
He's still not still a young guy. He's just hurt.
He has to be hurt. And that's the fears.

Speaker 4 (13:50):
We're betting into a guy we haven't seen play at
a high number. But I just agree with the market.
It's minus six and a half. I think that's right.
He is fully got and practice moving well. I mean
they're gonna get guys back on their defense to the
Ravens here. It's just a terrible spot for this Bears team.
They're just walking into a team with a month of frustration.

(14:12):
Fully healthy after being well rested by a week, It's like,
can the Bears do it? Yeah, we've seen them pull
the rabbit out of there as a couple of times
this year they've been like we've talked about, they've been
one of those impressive teams that they're gonna earn that
right to be a wildcard team if they keep winning
those close games.

Speaker 2 (14:27):
So could they play tight? Sure?

Speaker 4 (14:30):
But the Ravens, we know the Ravens. We bet usually
this is the type of game they absolutely roll. It's
an NFC team. Lamar just doesn't lose to them. Yeah,
it's it's a game where even if you're not confident
about this Ravens team, you just gotta trust the number.
This would if this was a fully healthy we knew
Lamar was all good, this would probably be closer to

(14:52):
eight and a half nine. So I think we're still
getting value on this line. I'm gonna take it. I'm nice.
I'm happy to hear that you're on as well. A
the minus six and a half.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
I feel like you just talked yourself into it while
you were talking. When you started that conversation, you're like,
it's it's I feel like it's priced right.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Well, it feels easy. That's the scare. It's like, why
is it so low? I can't believe this is in
seven seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (15:15):
Actually, well, to me, I'm having a really hard time
gauging how good the Bear's rush to he is right now?
They were, they were definitely, they've definitely been better after
the bye. They still gave up get sucked. Well, that's
the thing, like they still guy, guy, I'm getting there.

Speaker 3 (15:33):
I'm not good.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
God, I don't know what you bring it up though,
It's like, dude, well.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
They look they still gave up one hundred and twenty
yards to the Commanders from week six, and Jaden Daniels
with a bulky knee, had no problem slipping by their rush.
And I keep thinking, what like Jaden Daniels or what
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can do and listen this
Bear's rushing attack, like can they beat up on a

(16:01):
Ravens d that is twenty ninth in EPA success rate
and DVOA. But like you said, Rokwan Smith will be back.
They should be fully healthy in the secondary. Maybe they
get some support in the run game by bringing their
safeties up a little bit. Like I'm not overly impressed

(16:26):
with the Bears winning four games in a row. I'm
happy the Bears have won four games in a row.
I'm afraid they get blown into Baltimore Harbor with a
lot of confidence brewing for this team. That's why I

(16:46):
like Baltimore.

Speaker 4 (16:48):
Yeah, I just I think we're both on the same page.
It's really just about this Ravens in a get right spot.

Speaker 1 (16:55):
Baltimore Ravens minus six and a half. Cleveland at New
England one is a seven point favorite. We know what
we do here.

Speaker 3 (17:03):
It's Patriots or pass.

Speaker 2 (17:05):
Yeah, I'm fine with that.

Speaker 4 (17:07):
If people are wondering what models are gonna pick, models
are gonna take the Browns er, that's a that's a
Browns line. You have ah inexperienced second year quarterback and
going against what most computers are going to be as
a juggernaut defense. But we told you, like we keep
Ammer at home, I just don't trust Cleveland's defense to travel,
let alone a rookie QB in the Browns who I

(17:28):
don't trust at all having to make big time throws
in this game.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
So I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (17:33):
It's I hate them being scared off by the number,
but it's also like this this Patriots team. I know
you you believe the Drake May stuff. I like, I
go back and watch this stuff and it's like, dude.

Speaker 2 (17:43):
This kid he's gotting.

Speaker 4 (17:46):
He is very talented, but the throws he makes and
the stuff that's working out for him are just absurd
right now. Like he is playing as like the top three,
top four quarterback in football right now, but it's not
gonna last. It's just it's not possible. I know football
fans want to hear this. I mean, holy hell, how
much noise did I hear from Jane Daniels fans telling
me I don't know what I'm talking about. There's not

(18:06):
gonna be a year or two letdown the book. It
gets out on you and injuries come and you play
a certain style. So Drake May, I think he can last.
But the hits he takes, I'm sure you've seen it.
The hits he takes, I just don't get it. Like
I watched the game and it's like I can't believe
this kid is making these plays after taking these big shots,
not just at his head, like his shoulders are getting

(18:28):
hit too, Like it's whole thing's crazy. So yeah, it's
number wise, Like I said, my modas is at six,
I'm still going to take the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
I probably would still take the Phills minus seven and
a half.

Speaker 4 (18:39):
I just I have no interest or faith betting Dylan
Grabriel on the road or that Cleveland defense on the road.
So yeah, I hate it because it's like such a
brown spot. But yeah, I can't can't do it, got
to take Patriot's sign number.

Speaker 1 (18:52):
I don't know that it is a brown spot. And
to me, it really is not even about their defense.
Like we know that we want to fade the Browns defense.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
The Patriots can't run the ball.

Speaker 3 (19:01):
You know that, right, Yeah, they can't run the ball.

Speaker 2 (19:04):
Spot. You can make a one dimensional Drake May that's
where you want to be.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
But here's the thing. To me, it's not about the
Browns defense. It's all about Dylan Gabriel against the Patriots defense.

Speaker 3 (19:19):
And I've said this for two weeks.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
Christian Gonzales, he doesn't get mentioned in the broadcasts. I
watched almost that entire Titans Patriots game. I watched it
so our fans didn't have to. That's the kind of
sacrifice that I make for the people on this show.
They don't mention Christian Gonzales because you can't throw in

(19:46):
his direction. So all of a sudden, Dylan Gabriel, who
already is disadvantaged, who already isn't very good, who has
escaped by the skin of his teeth, and having to
throw three picks and you know, one of them in
the back of the the end zone that led to
a touchdown, and one of them was a pick six,
and then quin Shawn Juckkins running for forty yard touchdowns. Like,

(20:06):
if you look at what the Browns did this past
week on offensively, they didn't do anything.

Speaker 3 (20:11):
So I don't know.

Speaker 1 (20:12):
What they can scheme they could get them into the
end zone unless there are just dramatic broken plays. You
kind of got to bet on that. And I don't
want to bet on hoping the Browns can create some
kind of havoc or because I don't know that Dylan
Gabriel can take advantage of it.

Speaker 3 (20:33):
That's why Simon, I.

Speaker 4 (20:36):
Might have to get back on Twitter and just start
tweeting out Christian Gonzalez is disgruntled and the Eagles are
looking to get him.

Speaker 2 (20:43):
For a third fourth round pick. I'm about to start
tweeting that.

Speaker 4 (20:45):
Out every day just because I cannot take every week
AJ Brown and Patriots fans being like, yeah, the Eagles
might give him up for a second or a third.
Even after you get a huge week, I'm still seeing
people be like, I still don't think AJ Brown's happy.
I still think he once out. It's like, oh my god,
this is never gonna end.

Speaker 1 (21:00):
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are seven
point favorites in this game. You were surprised by this
one that it's so high, And I thought on Monday
it looked like it was trending towards six and a half.
There were some six and a halfs out there, But

(21:22):
now this morning it's at seven. You look at the juice,
it might be trending to seven and a half. Two
weeks ago in New Jersey, a game that the Eagles
got doubled up on and lost thirty four to seventeen,
the line was Eagles minus seven and a half. If
you take sort of traditional point spread math, that means

(21:44):
the Eagles would be about let's say, ten point favorites
in a neutral sight, which means they should be thirteen
point favorites. You know, in Philadelphia, if you give say
three points to home field advantage. Let's say you're only
doing two.

Speaker 3 (21:59):
Let's say two.

Speaker 1 (22:00):
Well, isn't that some medication right now? How the bookmakers
have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles, and how betters
have adjusted the Giants and the Eagles and their power ratings?

Speaker 2 (22:11):
Yeah, And I don't know why my mind right to it.

Speaker 4 (22:13):
All I can think of is we've only played one
Thursday game in our contest and as we lost it.
As the Rams, we've hit every other Thursday game and
we have not put any of them in the contest
this year in a stupid way. Yeah, I don't get
this one because I didn't get by the line, like
I said, was so high still and.

Speaker 2 (22:32):
What are we missing on this Giants team?

Speaker 4 (22:34):
Like last week, people are coming in on Denver and
I just didn't get it.

Speaker 2 (22:38):
And it's like, am I adjusting too much to this
Giants team?

Speaker 4 (22:41):
Or are people still out rating this free playing dart
style like he's not thinking making big throws and camp scatterbu.

Speaker 2 (22:52):
I can't believe it's worked out.

Speaker 4 (22:53):
Like I remember him coming out, I was like, there's
no way this stump of a human is going to
work in this league. And he's a beast man he
runs through dude's faces every week. He's just in the
right scenario, right spots. He really is like a mini bus.
He's just a beast. So I don't know, I feel
like the Eagles are the right side and I'm getting
psyched out too much by this Giants team. But I

(23:14):
just don't trust this Eagles team, Like I just I'm
having a hard time trusting him because they're just not
consistent offense or defense. They're half teams, and it's been bizarre,
like they've had the hardest schedule on all of football.

Speaker 2 (23:27):
You know, they are five and two. It hurts.

Speaker 4 (23:31):
I've saw some crazy stat his through seven weeks. He's
number one ratio touchdowns, interceptions, he is second and eight out.
He is fifth and passer rating, he is seventh in
total EPA, and he's seventh.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
In completion percentage. And it's like.

Speaker 4 (23:51):
Just said the basis, he's having a great season, But
I just don't think as a team they are like
Saquon We've talked about, he's not running right. He doesn't
have one hundred yards from scrimmage this year. It's bizarre.
So I don't know what to do with it. I
think I'm supposed to be on the Eagles. My model says,
I am, But there's a parting that's just like, are
we just all still undervining this Giants team that's they're

(24:12):
gonna hit a wall, They're gonna fall off a cliff eventually.
I just don't know if it's this game yet. It's
tough to guess, So I guess I'll just a model here,
try to take my human aspect out, and I'll give
out the Eagles still, and I'll bet the Eagles. But
I felt way better at six and a half, like
you said, Now it's getting closer to seven and seven
and a half, so I'll take the seven now before
it moves to that number.

Speaker 1 (24:32):
I thought the Eagles would hit the wall last week
against the Broncos. I think we're all waiting for the
fall because Jackson Dard is playing kind of out of
his mind and he's doing.

Speaker 3 (24:45):
What a lot of great quarterbacks do.

Speaker 1 (24:48):
We see it with Jayden Daniels, We'll see it with
Lamar Jackson, where he's getting his team into position to
convert third and longs because if he sees the opportunity
to run in a wide open field, he's just going
for it. And he's finding a way to get that
first down in what seemed like impossible situations, and that's
debilitating for a defense and morale crushing for a defense.

Speaker 3 (25:13):
Like the Eagles have been.

Speaker 1 (25:15):
So, like you said, a little bit off, a little inconsistent,
and Jalen Carter will disappear, and then he'll have a
game like he did on Sunday where he had seven
quick pressures, like pressures of a very specific amount of
time or less or six maybe, And that was more

(25:37):
than the entire Eagles defensive front combined, and that normally
comes from defensive ends.

Speaker 2 (25:44):
So did you see you on retired?

Speaker 3 (25:47):
Yes, And that's how bad it was.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
Brandon Graham, who was an Eagles legend going back to
their Super Bowl against the Patriots and playing last year
after a season with a torn pack and it was
going to be last season, has unretired to come back
and play. That's not a savior situation. That's a desperation situation.

Speaker 2 (26:09):
It is.

Speaker 4 (26:09):
I told you before he went down last year he
was our best the end, like statistically, so I'm happy
he's coming back.

Speaker 2 (26:17):
He said he didn't want to retire.

Speaker 4 (26:18):
How he basically told him, like, dude, you got the
Hollywood ending like give it up.

Speaker 2 (26:22):
So it's listening. He starts the firing them. But yeah,
I just.

Speaker 4 (26:25):
When I saw that, I was like, man, it is dark,
dark times right now for Philadelphia that we are trying
to get our old players are unretired because we need them.

Speaker 2 (26:32):
I mean, Jason Kelce, if you can still do it, brother,
we need you, come on back.

Speaker 3 (26:37):
Honestly, Yeah, this is just a herd. Like you're you're
going to take the Eagles at seven.

Speaker 1 (26:43):
I'm uncommitted on this game, Like I kind of hate
everything about it because that's fair. The Giants keep breaking
a lot of games.

Speaker 2 (26:49):
I hate this week, so yeah.

Speaker 1 (26:50):
There's not another and it's hard because there's so many vibes.
But like the Giants keep breaking, well, the.

Speaker 2 (26:55):
Numbers are getting sharper. I mean that's true. Yeah, that's
how it goes.

Speaker 1 (26:58):
The Giants are breaking the moment and the Eagles are
you betting what we've seen all year? We betting what
we saw last week, which their their best complete game,
and even then they kind of got away with one.

Speaker 3 (27:08):
So it's tough. It's really really tough.

Speaker 1 (27:12):
San Francisco ed Houston bouncing back and forth and back
and forth, The Texans have been favorites as high as
two and a half even heading into last night's game.

Speaker 3 (27:23):
It settled around one and a half.

Speaker 1 (27:25):
After the game and their loss, it flipped to Niners
minus one and a half, Texas plus one and a half,
now Texans minus one.

Speaker 3 (27:33):
Simon, what say you.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
Jed?

Speaker 4 (27:36):
This is Simon says, give me Houston minus one.

Speaker 3 (27:40):
I want to play a game, Simon says.

Speaker 1 (27:43):
Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bet, are the Houston
Texans minus one?

Speaker 3 (27:53):
Give it to me.

Speaker 4 (27:54):
You're obviously much rather have Texans as a dog would
have been nice, but unfortunately for me, the professionals had
the same idea as I did.

Speaker 2 (28:03):
It's just a nice spot for this Texas team. After
last night? Did you stay Upbrade? You actually go to bed? Dude?

Speaker 3 (28:11):
Listen.

Speaker 1 (28:11):
I went to bed, but you know, the Lions game
lasted so long that it went past what I was
hoping would be my ten PM bedtime, So I did
end up, and then I started watching the Mariners Blue
Jays like it was the eighth inning, and I wanted
to see what was going on. So I saw the
the end of that game. I got to see the
George Springer home run, and I washed until the end

(28:33):
of the game, and I multi viewed with with the
Seahawks and Texans, and look like.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
That was discouraging.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
It was.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
Disgruntling if you had bet the Texans. Even the five
minutes I watched, Texans forced four turnovers, they scored one
touchdown themselves on defense, they blocked a field goal, They
had back to back turnover to give the Texans a
chance at the end of the game, and the Texans
could do nothing with it. Like this is a pathetic offense. True,

(29:06):
and it's such a bummer they're wasting such a good defense.
So tell me why we're going to bet the Texans
this way?

Speaker 4 (29:11):
You go, Yeah, it was just all CJ, like we
we should have covered even maybe potentially won that game
a thousand different ways, and just awful, had an off night.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
And that's honestly why I like it.

Speaker 4 (29:22):
People are just they're down on Houston already this year
and after that type of game where CJ to me
it was probably his worst game of the year.

Speaker 2 (29:31):
He was just, like you.

Speaker 4 (29:32):
Said, so many opportunities gifted by Seattle and he just
even the refs were helping him out, honestly, like a
couple of calls were very favorable to our direction. But
this Houston team is just good to me, Like, even
in that game everything was going wrong, they saw a
chance to win in like multiple different ways. It just
once again CJ couldn't come through their offense. I put

(29:54):
a lot of them their roc like some of his calls.
I'm trying to think there's one specific play might have
been the th quarter. It was third and one. He
runs it to the left side.

Speaker 2 (30:03):
Again.

Speaker 4 (30:03):
They're getting zero push on this left side the entire game,
and even the announcers are laughing at this guy, being
like that was why not just do a QB sneak
there on third and one, because you know you're gonna
go for it again if you're going for it if
you're running it on third and one. So they line
up fourth and one, they run chat, they run the
exact same play to the left side again. I can
play they just lost half a yard on and they
lose a full yard the next time. So there's a

(30:26):
lot of dysfunction with Houston. I think everyone's gonna be
down on the flip side. Forty nine ers on Sunday
night had a huge win. Right They won twenty to
ten in a game where I didn't think they looked
at it all.

Speaker 2 (30:37):
I thought that was just a pure McCaffrey.

Speaker 4 (30:39):
Put the team on your back, Oh yeah, win the
game for your offense. He won't be able to do
that against a Houston defense. So this Houston defense is legit.
Like Sam Darnold, he was the one that really stole
that game, right as bad as CJ was. Sam Donald
two drives he opened the game up that were just incredible.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
He was automatic him.

Speaker 4 (30:57):
And you know we talked about Jackson Smith and Jigba.
They're just tune right now and that's what happened in
that game. But you saw in that second half, Houston's
defense has kept them in the game. They got the
strip sacked touchdown, like Chad said, the block field goal.

Speaker 2 (31:10):
They were just a team that never quits. They never died.

Speaker 4 (31:14):
And I like that type of mentality for a team
that just got embarrassed. Now on a short week where
I talked to the public, was going to have their
week This was their past weekend. This is going to
be a huge public side the forty nine ers, And
to me, I was hoping the line would flip again.
I could see this getting up to two minus two, like,
just so we saw the charge. I could see this

(31:34):
gain upt to minus two minus two and a half.
Professional money come on the Seaston side because it is
a good spot for this defense at home, and I
get right against a team the forty nine Ers that
you can you can keep back in Mac Jones. It's
working for you. He's making the plays and everything like that.
But I do think we see Rock Perdy. I think
he rushes back because I just how can he not
be worried about his job right now? He's he's in

(31:58):
a spot where they're three to zero in the division,
this forty nine Ers team, So at five and two
three on your division, he's got to be feeling a
little bit like this is a lot of mac Jones.

Speaker 2 (32:07):
Mac Jones is carrying him, carrying this team right now.

Speaker 4 (32:09):
So I could see him rushing back, and I just
this line, to me is a pretty line. If it
was mac Jones, I could see Houston being minus three.
This to me, they're pricing in a point and a
half into zo point two points maybe into purty here.
So I liked this early number here on Houston.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
Yeah, look, I agree with everything you've said. Except for
brock Perty is worried about his job. Brock Purty, who
just signed a fifty five million dollars a year contract,
is not worry that matters, is not worried about his
job and losing it to mac Jones. There is there

(32:46):
is no world in which where that is a conversation.

Speaker 4 (32:50):
I'm a Carson One survivor, you're a Mitch Trubisky survivor.
What are you talking about right now? None of that
money means anything. Party has had one good year, Like,
all right, he can come back, he gets hurt again
and mac Jones keeps winning games.

Speaker 2 (33:03):
That's a real conversation right now. That's a real conversation.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
If brock Perty gets hurt again and continues to struggle
and can't stay healthy, he's not worried about his job
after a three game absence.

Speaker 4 (33:13):
So the last pick in the NFL draft because he
was a small bodied who can't stay on the field,
isn't worried about his job right now because he just
got paid a bunch of money from an organization that
moved on from the number three pick of the NFL
to him. I think you're you're not reading this one right.
It's a real thing. You're five and two with a
guy that apparently the head coach loved and got overstepped

(33:34):
by Lynch take someone else like that.

Speaker 2 (33:36):
Mac Jones stuff is real. So I don't know, it's
it's an interesting.

Speaker 1 (33:40):
Spot, all right, all right, I'm nothing if not flexible
in my beliefs.

Speaker 4 (33:47):
Jims letting you know, like the plugged in world. That's
that's a real thing going on.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
So you're giving me not speculation, you're giving me sourcing.

Speaker 2 (33:55):
Yeah, it's mac Jones. This is real.

Speaker 4 (33:58):
Perty needs to get healthy and come back and play
well like he doesn't only go in the next offseason
with all this hanging over him. He needs to get
right because the way the kids playing Mac Jones, who
I don't think he's as good as party. He's winning
games right now and he's playing well. He's he's got
like a bum short and abom me. That's that's pretty
that's tough. That's that's a really if you're a football team,

(34:21):
you rally around those type of guys.

Speaker 3 (34:23):
Well.

Speaker 1 (34:23):
By the way, for context, for those who don't remember, whatever,
it was twenty one twenty two, that's when mac Jones
and Trey Lance were both talked about as going to
the Niners, and everyone thought it was going to be
mac Jones at number three, and everyone was betting huge
sums of money it was going to be mac Jones
at number three, and then it came out forty eight
hours before that it might be Trey Lance, And then

(34:45):
people were betting huge sums of money that Tray Lance
that mac Jones wouldn't go number three, including our friend Simon,
who we did a segment on our old show where
you had pulled over from the side of the road
on the way to or from the sportsbook where you
just made a massive, massive bet on mac Jones to
not go number three. So I can't deny you know

(35:06):
of what you speak when it comes to being inside
this particular conversation.

Speaker 2 (35:10):
I just I know I have good people inside four
Hours organization. I always have people I trust.

Speaker 4 (35:15):
So yeah, that that situation again, like you said, it's
it kind of being nothing pretty comes back plays the
rest of the year, they make the playoff or something
win this division. But as you say right now, it's
like I said, I don't feel good about it against
Salah or you know shann Anne. Here, I just said,
they're probably the best coaching tenaem of football right now,

(35:36):
what they've done with this team is incredible, but they
are another team.

Speaker 2 (35:40):
I just think they're betting way above their head.

Speaker 4 (35:42):
You know, Eagles points differentials plus five, four point differentials
plus seven, so it's like it's the same thing. It's
like two teams are winning games they probably shouldn't be winning,
but Eagles are much healthier, getting right foty nine ers.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
They just they're not going to get these pieces back.

Speaker 4 (35:58):
So it's imp so what they did Sunday, But how
can they not be over valued by the general public
right now? And flip side Texans, we're both discussed with them,
Like Dad CJ was awful, but you got to do
with people. I know it's gross. It's gotta wash away
what happened last week. It's a new week. You're getting
a good number. Try not to overthink it.

Speaker 1 (36:16):
If I had stayed up for that game, I don't
think I would have slept yet because it would have
ended at like one o'clock point thirty. I would have
been so angry. It would have taken me until now
to finally start coming down. Today's show is brought to
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Speaker 3 (37:22):
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Speaker 3 (37:57):
Eight three to three play wise.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
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In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Buffalo at Carolina, Carolina plus seven and a half.

Speaker 2 (38:17):
Look.

Speaker 1 (38:18):
Bryce Young has the high ankles brain so Dave Canalis
is saying he's day to day. There are other reports
saying he's expected to miss the game. I think it's
ticked up because people expect it to be Andy Dalton,
I love the Panthers so much at full strength that
I realized when I was looking at my accounts, I

(38:40):
bet this at plus seven during the summer because I
thought that the Panthers at this point would be so
good that the number would have been shorter.

Speaker 3 (38:51):
They're good, but without Bryce Young. I can't believe that.

Speaker 1 (38:55):
Like Bryce Young is the deciding factor for us in
this game.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
Know if he is, I think that was a good revalue.

Speaker 4 (39:01):
You definitely got lucky to read that Buffalo would be
as bad as they are right now, but a good
read on the Panthers being better. Like if this was Bryce,
probably would be six and a half six If it.

Speaker 3 (39:14):
Was Bryce, I love it. I feel so good.

Speaker 4 (39:16):
I'm shocked you're straight off about being about being to
being Andy. I thought as rusty as he looked last week,
expect a full.

Speaker 2 (39:24):
Week of practice. This should be a nice spot for him.

Speaker 4 (39:27):
This is a Bills team that can't stop the run,
and they might have one of the best running backs
in football right now. No, they don't believe it because
they're still trying to get two but Hubbard touches. But yeah, right,
it's they have a good running attack. And we've talked
this team is different at home. The Panthers are just
simply different, so brutal, Like this is technical a get
right spot for the Bills after they're you know, they've

(39:47):
been so bad by a week, they should play well here.

Speaker 2 (39:50):
But the data hasn't back those type of things.

Speaker 6 (39:52):
Up.

Speaker 2 (39:53):
Usually teams come out sluggish in these type of games.
So we'll see.

Speaker 4 (39:57):
I'll check out the injury report for the Bill, see
what got are getting back. I mean, you know at
Oliver obviously came back was a huge instant jolt of
that defense is a big way. But Panthers plus seven
and a half, I don't know, kind.

Speaker 2 (40:11):
Of love it, kind of love it.

Speaker 4 (40:12):
It just feels like it's too much, too much respect
for this Bills team. They don't just like the Eagles.
I don't know where it's it's is it warranted? Like
is this defense good enough to be catching a touchdown
and a half?

Speaker 2 (40:23):
Like we've got Andy Dolton.

Speaker 4 (40:25):
With his best receiving course since he's had AJ Green
and in Cincinnati days, like team McMillan's a stut, Like
they they have a lot of guys that are just
really good and.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
Their defense is improving every Yeah, so I don't know,
all right, kind of listen, here's the truth. I'm locked
in on this either way, So.

Speaker 2 (40:50):
Yeah, you gotta bet it again though if you get
seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (40:52):
If I get seven and a half, maybe I'm betting
it again. Like this feels like where we've got an
early indicator on what could be a brass balls going
with Carolina at seven and a half against the Buffalo Bills.
That'll be interesting to see as we get more reports
from Thursday from the injury reports. Oh God, New York

(41:13):
Jets at Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati Bengals are six and a
half point favorites.

Speaker 3 (41:18):
This is what it's come to for the New York Jets.
Joe Flacco's three.

Speaker 1 (41:23):
Weeks into his mid season career change, still learning the
playbook in Cincinnati. A huge win on Thursday Night Football
that we loved because we had the Bengals. He's nearly
a touchdown favorite.

Speaker 3 (41:40):
And and this line has.

Speaker 1 (41:43):
Gone up two points since the Jets game on Sunday.
The line was four and a half on Sunday, it's
now six and a half. Simon Simon.

Speaker 3 (42:00):
Percent.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Every model is going to have the Jets as the
side to bet.

Speaker 3 (42:07):
In this game.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
We do not know who will be the starting quarterback.
We do know for the Jets. We do know the
justin fields in the last two games. Do you know
how many total passing yards he has in the last
two games? Eighty ninety one. I'm glad that you went
so low forty five.

Speaker 2 (42:29):
I've noticed it's been it's been atrocious.

Speaker 1 (42:30):
I've like forty five and forty six. He's not even
playing quarterback anymore.

Speaker 2 (42:36):
I know. It's it's a train wreck.

Speaker 4 (42:39):
And they have so many injuries too, Like, I can't
believe it though Joe Flacco is minus seven.

Speaker 3 (42:46):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (42:47):
I don't know what to do with this one, because
you're right, like my model wants us to take it.
I mean, the money line you get, you're getting plus
two seventy against Flacco.

Speaker 2 (42:57):
That's insane.

Speaker 4 (42:57):
You almost gotting three to one on your money against
betting on Joe Flaccough.

Speaker 1 (43:00):
I'd almost I'd almost rather take the money line, you know,
because yeah, right right, I put a little bit less
than my full unit because.

Speaker 2 (43:09):
I won a game yet this year.

Speaker 3 (43:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (43:11):
Like, but I told you Aaron Glenn's not a real coach.
He's not a serious head coach. I saw a clip
he's calling other coaches that ask them how they handle
telling the start of their bench and going with another guy,
or what he should do with his starting quarterback position.
It's it's a disaster, and there's a disaster organization. So yeah,

(43:32):
it's like I said this week. There's so many lines
I hate. I don't even want to bet. I guess
I had to take a position because, as we do
on the show, I'll give out the Jets.

Speaker 2 (43:40):
But man, you can hear my voice, I'm probably with Chad.

Speaker 4 (43:42):
I'd rather just bet the money line plus two seventy
plus two eighty if I can find it, other than
even taking the number here, because like you said, what
are we going to back toward fields or tailor? Like
these are not backdoor quarterbacks, but they are the quarterbacks
that they can get a stupid lead and hold on
to it by running the ball legs.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
But yeah, it's it's just disastrous place.

Speaker 1 (44:04):
Well, look, I trust Tyrod Taylor a lot more than
I trust Justin Fields. And the only time we've actually,
I think the only time we've bet the Jets and
that they've covered this year was that game against the Bucks,
which was a Tyrod Taylor miracle game. I've actually been

(44:24):
really proud of us this year that we haven't bitten
on the Jets, like it's.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
One of them against Pittsburgh Week one.

Speaker 3 (44:34):
I know, right, I guess we did.

Speaker 4 (44:36):
Yeah, but I'm with you, like we just it's just
a team. We don't trust and can't get a read on.

Speaker 2 (44:41):
They're tough, so.

Speaker 3 (44:43):
They have nothing exceptional.

Speaker 2 (44:46):
Your gambler, who bets on the Jets? Who have you
not learned anything about betting?

Speaker 1 (44:50):
The Jets are gonna come back? Tampa Bay at New Orleans.
This line has dropped from five and a half to
four and a half. New Orleans plus five and a
half is now plus four and a half, So that
tells me the wise guys have been coming in on
New Orleans since last night's game. Here's my worry, and

(45:14):
I have a very specific opinion on this game. I
worry that the New Orleans Saints are going to become
to us the same team that.

Speaker 3 (45:26):
The Panthers have been.

Speaker 1 (45:28):
We see enough each week that we feel encouraged, and
there are a couple lucky breaks away each game from
actually staying in it and covering as they were last
week against the Bears, as they were the week before
against the Patriots. But in reality, they're not that team,

(45:50):
and I think this is a bad matchup for them,
and I think it's time to get on the Baker train.

Speaker 4 (46:00):
I'm not there yet with this Bucks team that that
was a bad Baker game.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
Obviously, the lines. They should have lost that game.

Speaker 3 (46:08):
By forty though, like Gold, Oh yeah, totally. Golf was
terrible and that I can't believe that we had to
sweat that.

Speaker 4 (46:14):
Yeah, honestly, so, I mean this Bucks team, Chad, they
don't I know, they blew a team out the week before,
but like they're another team with minus one point differential,
Like I get it, they're five and two, but all
those games, remember they were winning on last second field goals.
So six and a half obviously in the Saints that
was a side we talk a little bit Sunday night.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
That was a great number.

Speaker 4 (46:37):
Yeah, it sucks that we missed it and that it's
gone now that we're stuck with the four and a half.
But you're probably right, maybe I'm too close to it,
But this is just I don't know how this Bucks
team with other injuries as bad as the Saints team is.
It's a divisional game and they're catching more than a
field goal. So if it was minus three, I honestly
would have no issue taking the Bucks. It's all about

(46:58):
the line with them, Like this year, they've been very
profitable if you've been pricing in those type of games
and those lines. This is not This is not a
books line to me. This is a slowly Saints number.
The Bucks, like we said, they when they get guys back,
if they get God went back, if Bucky Irvin is
back this week, if they do get a couple of
guys in their secondary back, I could come to your side, Chad,

(47:19):
But as we sit here right now, I just I
can't trust them. And yeah, this this Saints team that
played really bad in the weather. We've seen them play
well at home indoor, like every game they're in, they're
usually close games. This is a close game type of number.
So I'm with you. They're they're slowly becoming a favorite
team of mine, the Saints team. But yeah, it's about

(47:42):
the number. Like I'm not banging the table for because
it's not plus six and a half.

Speaker 2 (47:45):
But I still think there's value here that's been overlooked
plus four and a half. I got this at three
and a half.

Speaker 4 (47:50):
So if you do like the Bucks, you can be patient.
I do think the pros will bet this one down
for you. Wait and see too. A mecha Buka didn't
look right in that game, looked like he was playing
in a not fully healed hamstring. And now they lost
again Mike Evans for the season. Does he just force
it in this game, comes out there because they need him,

(48:13):
like they can't rely on was it Tess Johnson? This
kid that's like, yeah, incredible, But yeah, it's it's asking
a lot for Baker and you saw last night Baker's
gonna have his game. So yeah, it's interesting in short weeks,
second back to back road game for the Bucks minus
four and a half. I thought this would be a
more public side right now. The money is definitely towards

(48:36):
the Saints. The tickets right now, it's about every book
is about ninety percent towards this Bucks team. So there's
no doubt this is gonna be a pros versus shows.
The public will be on the books, and you're right,
the pros we might be enamor of the Saints team.

Speaker 2 (48:49):
We're buying fools gold here.

Speaker 3 (48:50):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (48:51):
Look, I watched that game last night and then when
I was thinking about it, uh late night and then
well late at night for me, you know, ten thirty,
and then this morning the Lions hammered the Bucks with
man de man coverage. They were awesome and they were

(49:12):
on one last night. That defense was playing out of
its mind. The pass rush was insane. That's the Saints.
They live in zone coverage, and like Baker lives beating
zone coverage. Baker is the best quarterback in the league
on an EPA per attempt basis against zone.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
I think he's going to eat these guys up.

Speaker 1 (49:37):
And I think coming back like, it's going to be quieter,
It's not going to be amped the way Detroit was.

Speaker 2 (49:44):
Like.

Speaker 1 (49:44):
That was a we love Detroit no matter what the
number last night because we believe like Baker's magic is
going to run out against a far superior team. I
don't think it runs out against a team that plays
the exact defense he likes to eat up. That's my
take on the game. Tennessee at Indy. Indy is a

(50:07):
thirteen and a half point favorite. Simon our beliefs are
being tested. That's all I can say about this.

Speaker 4 (50:14):
Yeah, we're supposed to be in Tennessee, but I don't care.
I'll take I'll take the Colts.

Speaker 1 (50:19):
Are you taking the Colts or we just are we? Like,
you're actively going to take the Colts here?

Speaker 4 (50:25):
Yeah, And I'll throw him in our money line around Robin.
I'll get him down to I don't even I need
to get him down to five and a half. I'll
take him down to six and a half. Six and
a half. That's how much I don't respect this Tennessee teams.
They're just terrible. So yeah, can they get a backdoor
junk touchdown? Sure, But you have arguably the best running.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
Team in football, the Colts, going against some of the
worst run defenses and all football, and you simply just
have this scheme around Jeffrey Simmons.

Speaker 1 (50:50):
Like we don't know if he's going to play because
remember he missed half the game with halfster injury.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
Yeah, I just I don't know.

Speaker 1 (50:59):
It has come down is at fourteen and now it's
thirteen and a half.

Speaker 2 (51:02):
Yeah, sure, pros are Betton Tennessee.

Speaker 4 (51:05):
You know, like you said, Christian Zales shut down Tennessee's
number one receiver. He didn't play in the game. It
really didn't play. So they don't even have their number
one receiver. He could play in this game, which they need.
But I think Lockett has to be released from them.
Like they're just totally dysfunctional right now, this Tennessee team.
So they need Ridley back, they need some type of

(51:26):
offensive weapon because the guys they had out there last
week just were not getting open, getting it done.

Speaker 2 (51:31):
So it's it's bad for Tennessee. This just feels like
a really bad matchup.

Speaker 4 (51:35):
And like we always say, these big spreads and divisional games,
weird things can happen.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
But you also saw exactly what happened last week with.

Speaker 4 (51:44):
The Raiders where some of these teams just can't save
themselves right now and they're running into teams that are
just buzzsaws. So we'll see the coaches feel like a
really well oiled machine right now. I don't see them
taking this game lately, because it is a divisional game.
I think they'll be fully prepared and ready to play
in this one, and.

Speaker 2 (52:01):
It's painful. It's the Tennessee team that.

Speaker 4 (52:06):
Probably is a good number fourteen and a half fourteen,
but at thirteen and a half, i'll take that by
I'll take the Colts.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
I actually feel like when you're playing the way the
Colts are right now and you're dominating the way they are,
you want to keep doing it, like you are so
freaking motivated to continue to be that excellent and to
elevate yourself into the upper tier of the NFL ranks.
Right now, I think they're so freaking psyched with the

(52:34):
way they're playing, and they're coached so well right now,
I don't see them taking even a second of this
game lightly against the Titans. I'm glad you said it,
because I didn't want to be on the Titans. I
was antsy about taking the Colts. I appreciate you booing

(52:54):
my confidence on this game.

Speaker 3 (52:58):
Dallas.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
The Denver Broncos. The Denver Broncos are currently three point favorites.
First game I thought about on Sunday night continues to
be in my head. The Denver Broncos minus three will
be chat choice.

Speaker 2 (53:17):
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
willing to make a choice that choice?

Speaker 6 (53:22):
We can't run from who we are shot up? Dues
can just see it. You know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (53:31):
In my model, Simon, I like a good team as
a home fave that struggled against a good team that
won easily. The Cowboys won easily against second and third
tier receivers on Sunday against the Commanders. I know you

(53:57):
want to say something about bo Nicks Before I dig
into it.

Speaker 3 (54:01):
I want to hear what you have to say.

Speaker 4 (54:04):
Yeah, we fought over this one. We both love it.
I was happy to hear that you were making this
your choice. It's it's just a great, great spot, great number.
Hopefully people can get this while they can. This is
going to go up to minus three and a half,
minus four. It's just number to keep moving in the
simple fact that yes, the Cowboys can score at will.
They are an incredible offense. This should be a bad

(54:25):
match for them. Denver's defense, who is not impressed at
all this season. They need to step up here and
really shut down a Cowboys offense that yes, they're incredible,
they're juggernaut. It's usually against bad teams and bad defenses
like this is a real test for this Cowboys offense
that you know they're just going through everybody. Dak We've
seen it. He does struggle with pressure. We've talked to

(54:46):
all the injuries offensive line. This should be the match
of for Denver and on the bow Nick side. I
mean the guy said records right, first quarterback in NFL history.
Two rushing touchdowns, two passing touchdowns in the same quarter.
It's insane, Like just what he did against that Giants team.
He was deader than dead for three quarters. He did
absolutely nothing. He was terrible and to have the narcissistic

(55:09):
self belief that he does is incredible. Like, that's why
these guys are professionals, right, they have that belief he
can come back and win that game. That is something
they should build on. So I love the spot for Denver.
That should be a a launching point for this team.
But like they had so much hype coming to the year,
and that hype has been extinguished. Right, most people, you know,

(55:32):
I just don't think they're on this team like they
were before the year. Like no one's saying this team
is going to beat the chiefs in this division at all.

Speaker 2 (55:37):
Right, there's I maybe something are.

Speaker 4 (55:38):
Still out there, but I just think this is a
team that's still being a little bit sold low on
in Denver, especially after all these people who'd bet him
last week.

Speaker 2 (55:47):
They're mad at him.

Speaker 4 (55:48):
Like even though they won for us and our money
line around Robin, they didn't cover people's teezers.

Speaker 2 (55:53):
They were harbor on the number.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
I bet him at seven, And I'm furious.

Speaker 4 (55:58):
Right, And you say, when the cares there, you thought
you still had a chance to cover in that game.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
I was just like, Chad is total just a crazy person.

Speaker 1 (56:05):
By the way, narcissistic self belief. It's not just for quarterbacks,
it's also for suburban dads living in central Connecticut. Just
admiring the Fall foliage.

Speaker 2 (56:19):
Yeah, you're a crazy person. I just love when you
said it. I was like, I can't believe you honestly
think you have any right or.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
Even if you don't know by now that I live
in an irrationally optimistic world and I always believe that
the fluky is going to go my way. Like in
my house, my wife believes that if there is a
one percent chance of something bad happening or having it,

(56:45):
she or me or our kids are going to have it.
If there is a one percent chance of something good happening,
I believe it is going to happen to me.

Speaker 2 (56:56):
That's a better way to live. Honestly, it's very good
way to live. But yeah, Denver, grabbing when you can.

Speaker 4 (57:02):
There's it just feels a great match for them against
Cowboys team that is better than we all perceive. But
this just feels like a type of game that's just
a touchdown game for the Denver.

Speaker 3 (57:12):
So matchup game, my belief is a matchup game.

Speaker 1 (57:15):
I just like I like the Broncos defense and how
they pressure, how they are very good at keeping teams
from converting on third down. I think they shot themselves
in the foot so many times against the Giants. They
had I think four defensive penalties, three pis or roughing
the passer, all of which converted into big plays when

(57:36):
the Giants were out of it. Like I watched that
game because I was invested, and it was so frustrating
because the Giants, the Broncos defense kept giving it back
to the Giants again and again and again. So to me,
this was about spot about perception and about individual matchup.

(57:56):
Broncos defensive edge Nick Benito versus Dak Prescott, check's choice
Denver Broncos minus three.

Speaker 3 (58:06):
Are you ready for the prime time spotlight?

Speaker 1 (58:07):
Because I know there's a couple games in here that
we want to talk about that I think are really interesting.
We're going to bet these games. People are going to
think about these games. It's going to be exciting to
sweat these games. At the end of Sunday and Monday,
first game, Green Bay at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh is down to
three from three and a half. You keep on this
game Sunday night. I hope people were listening, because I

(58:30):
bet it at three and a half. I know you
did two. How do we feel at three?

Speaker 2 (58:37):
Still on Pittsburgh?

Speaker 4 (58:38):
But I also got I got some calls from some
guys about it, so it's nice to see the number
moved our way.

Speaker 2 (58:44):
I know some pros are.

Speaker 4 (58:45):
Really like green Bay in the spot, so still confident it,
but obviously I wish people could have got the three
and a half, and I think we might be able
to still get back there, Like if pros really liked
the green Bay this much, maybe we'll get back up
to it. The view they have, which I agree with,
which I understand they're coming to the market with is
Parsians look like he finally has gotten right with that

(59:06):
defense last week against Brissett. Isn't this quarterback the exact
same as what he went against last week? A quarterback
that can't move that much, that's older in the pocket,
And I get that. I just I think we both agree.
I just don't not trust this Green Bay team. I
don't think they're good. And it's like, isn't this a
Tomlin spot and Tomlin number? Like a three and a half?
Three plus three dog at home Sunday night?

Speaker 1 (59:28):
I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.

Speaker 6 (59:30):
I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.
Our business is winning and when we went into business
is being handled and would you not is not.

Speaker 4 (59:39):
I just Aaron Rodgers against green Bay, all of it.
I can't get away from it. It's killing me, Like
I love this when I'm so torn. Here there's pros
and the other side, because I thought this was going
to be Jose verisspros just like these other games where
it's like public will be all over green Bay, the
professionals will bet Pittsburgh just because this is such a
matchup where Pittsburgh got embarrassed the last time we saw them,

(01:00:00):
they got lit up by Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco made
fun of them, basically saying he didn't even know the offense.
He just needed to he knew if he just waited,
there's gonna be windows in that defense because Pittsburgh runs
the same exact defense even when they're giving up thirty
points in the game. They didn't change their defense the
entire game. So if that's not a rally week from
Tomlin this weekend, that defense, right, I feel like we

(01:00:22):
have to pay for the lost chat, like this is
just a game we can't avoid if we backed tom
and are certain spots we know when to fade it.
Physic we have a really good rhythm with Tomlin, know
when to back and when to go against him.

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
Somebody got to be all in. For everybody to be
all in, we might bite the bullet here. This might
be a bad one.

Speaker 4 (01:00:37):
The pros might be right on Green Bay, but I
can't avoid it, especially at plus three and a half.
Couldn't avoid it plus three. Still love it, Still think
they should be under under our field goal. Good value
to me on this Pittsburgh team, and I'm shocked, I
really am that it came down. I really thought we
would be able to get give out three and a
half on the show. But yeah, early professional money is
coming on Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (01:00:56):
It is what it is.

Speaker 1 (01:00:58):
Mike Tomlin nine two and three against the spread as
a dog of three or more at home.

Speaker 6 (01:01:07):
Thanks to Kim Sports, made an opportunity to get a
quality dude at a discount like what we're talking about.

Speaker 1 (01:01:15):
The thing I can't get out of my head is,
you know, I love Matt Lafleur and I was on
the Packers a few weeks ago off of Thereby because
I thought he would have sort of fixed a lot
of the challenges this offense has been having, and they
still looked bad against the Cardinals. Like, they have talent

(01:01:36):
all over the field, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Craft, Jordan Love,
the defense has Micah Parsons. They've got really good players,
and they don't seem to be able to figure out
how to be a great, complimentary, awesome team right now.
They had a good game against the Lions, and who knows,
maybe that was just a flukey game for the Lions,

(01:01:57):
right and so it's hard to look back at that
game and think, oh, the Packers are amongst the elite
in the NFL right now.

Speaker 3 (01:02:05):
And that's what this line is saying.

Speaker 1 (01:02:08):
And I think it's discounting a little bit of the
success the Steelers have had and the fact that the
last time anyone saw them was against the Bengals. But
don't forget this is now. The Steelers have basically have
had one game in almost four weeks, right because they
had the buye heading into the Bengals game, and now

(01:02:31):
they've been off for ten days. So it's just another
chance for them to get healthy and to get better
and make adjustments.

Speaker 3 (01:02:37):
And Mike Tomlin.

Speaker 1 (01:02:39):
At home as a dog after a game that he's lost,
he just gets better.

Speaker 2 (01:02:44):
You know, we can't avoid it.

Speaker 3 (01:02:46):
We can't avoid it.

Speaker 1 (01:02:46):
We love it, Washington and Kansas City. So listen, this
game's at ten and a half. Kansas City's a ten
and a half points crazy. Obviously it was four and
a half on Sunday afternoon.

Speaker 3 (01:03:04):
I will tell you that.

Speaker 1 (01:03:05):
As soon as Jadeen Daniels limped off the field on Sunday,
I went to try to bat Kansas City at minus
four and a half and it was showing it was available,
but it wouldn't accept my ticket.

Speaker 3 (01:03:19):
Here's my question.

Speaker 2 (01:03:20):
That's also how you get banned.

Speaker 3 (01:03:23):
You know, I've been banned.

Speaker 1 (01:03:26):
I'm down to two places I can bet in Connecticut.
This game, do we have to ask ourselves forget about
passing it because jade Daniels isn't playing and we've lost
six points of value? Do we have to think about
playing the Chiefs because from a matchup point of view,

(01:03:46):
maybe we are getting value. Maybe the Commanders are actually
still should be thirteen point underdogs.

Speaker 2 (01:03:54):
Shure. I don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:03:56):
It's tough because Mariota, honestly, this year is not that big.
In my mom I'm not that big of a grade
of a step down paid And because Ja and Dan
has been hurt all year, he's been playing on a
bum leg and he's not look good.

Speaker 2 (01:04:07):
We're Mariota. I know, he's up and down. That's that's
Mariota's style.

Speaker 4 (01:04:12):
Like he's gonna run for twenty yards and maybe throw
a six sixty yard bomb in the next pass. Fumble it,
the fumble, the snap. It's just that's the Mario experience.
That's why he's a backup.

Speaker 2 (01:04:21):
But ten and a half, it's a lot of points
here at hard Rock, that's a lot of points. So
I'm tempted to do it.

Speaker 4 (01:04:27):
I know the Chiefs look like an aster jogger gernaut
and like the best team of football, which they are,
but that Raiders thing was unique. That's a team they hate,
a team that talks smack about them, a team that
I think their dB was putting up a picture of
Kermit the Kermit the Frog or yeah, and like something
like mocking Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (01:04:49):
So it's like.

Speaker 4 (01:04:51):
They they thoroughly embarrassed that that Raiders team.

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
They literally, I don't know if you watched into that
Chiefs game.

Speaker 4 (01:04:56):
They put a backup in h with like a minute
go in the third quarter, and they basically kneeled down
at the end of the game, even though they're gonna
have to punt anyway back to the Raiders. They were
just like, we're not gonna run a play against you guys.
That's how like they're not gonna run the clock out.
So I just think it's a lot to ask on Homes.
We talked to those stats. He just doesn't blow teams out.
They just don't show everything usually. That Raiders one felt

(01:05:19):
like personal where Washington God willing chat. We get down
by twenty one in the third quarter, we're gonna be
alive with Mariota, like he's never gonna stop fighting. So
I'm not gonna force this one in because I don't
have it's Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (01:05:34):
We have no idea.

Speaker 4 (01:05:35):
If mclaurin's playing, You have no idea, if Deebo's playing,
if Mario doesn't have.

Speaker 2 (01:05:40):
The number one, number two receiver. I don't care if
this is a thirteen and a half.

Speaker 4 (01:05:43):
I'm just not gonna be putting money into this Washington team.
And I'm happy to do what I did last week
with the Chiefs. Throw them in a teaser, get the
number down lower, even though I didn't need to.

Speaker 2 (01:05:52):
It's just I always feel more comfortable doing that in
the home.

Speaker 4 (01:05:54):
So, yeah, this is a game where you said we
missed it. We should have got the Chiefs. We knew
Daniels probably wasn't gonna play this one anyone. They got
that early number. Great play. At this point, it just
feels like it's either Washington, me or Chief said Teaser.
It's just that feels like the only option.

Speaker 3 (01:06:11):
All right, So.

Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
We like Baltimore six and a half. We're thinking about
New England minus seven. Simon says is Houston minus one,
Carolina plus seven and a half has brass balls potential.

Speaker 3 (01:06:32):
Who else are we talking about?

Speaker 1 (01:06:34):
It'sburgh den We'll also Indie minus thirteen and a half, uh,
Denver minus three, Pittsburgh plus three and a half. I mean,
it's a hard it's a hard week. There's just you know,
there's there's fewer games, so significantly fewer games. But that's

(01:06:55):
that's what we're thinking about. That's what we're leaning. Hopefully
people can get get some of these numbers before they move.
That Denver line is definitely gonna move soon. This has
been sharper square part of the Volume podcast Network. We
will be back on Thursday with the games we are
narrowing down, plus our Survivor pick Our head to head
Battle brass Balls, so much more. Watcher listened on YouTube

(01:07:19):
a sharper square like this video. Subscribed to the channel.
Also download from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods.

Speaker 3 (01:07:24):
The rate review, subscribe, vise fish starts say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

Speaker 2 (01:07:30):
I love you.

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