Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Chiefs-Bills, Vikings-Lions, Cardinals-Cowboys, Colts-Steelers, Niners-Giants and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper. Square are presented by a hard rock
that we are part of the Volume and Podcast network.
This is the show that makes the square. Sharper makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better signon Hunter L.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
So I'm in chat. I'm a little worried.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
My life is peaking right now and honestly could not
be better.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Because of Tyrese Maxi and Edgecombe.

Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, I mean v VG.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
I think they set a rookie not a rookie record,
rd backcourt record for most points and assist and rebounds
and everything through the first three games. And your bulls
are undefeated as well. You're three and zero as well.

Speaker 1 (00:47):
Between VJ Edgecombe and Matus Buzells, I feel like we
are in a golden age of fandom here. Obviously, last
night I wanted to bring this up for a second
because I've got a question for you. Freddie Freeman with
his second World Series walkoff home run in as many years.

Speaker 4 (01:06):
Angelo Gorman's a five out of Summer Cool Bar Show's
going Back before.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
The Right The Last World a game three contic.

Speaker 1 (01:24):
I asked my kid the other day, and my kids,
by the way, my kit turn's nineteen today. And I
say that because he's not anyone who grew up in
the world where baseball was anything anybody was rooting for.
It's clearly like below NBA and NFL in terms of
fandom and in terms of audience and all those kinds
of things. But I said to him, game winning Game

(01:47):
seven winning walk off World Series home run, catching the
game winning the game, when he touchdown swaying the game,
when he touched down in the Super Bowl Game seven,
game winning shot to win the NBA five World Cup
game winning goal. What do you choose? What did you choose?
What do you choose from those?

Speaker 3 (02:10):
I mean the home run, obviously you can't beat it,
but I'll always go with March Madness last shot.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
Nice. I don't care. Like, to me, we missed a moment.
I'm a Duke fan, we missed that.

Speaker 3 (02:21):
Moment with Butler Heyward half court, heave off the backboard,
just missed like that. That to me is peak like
it doesn't get a much better twenty one to twenty
two year old hitting that shot David vers Elias.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
But I'm with you. The basketball one to me his peak.

Speaker 1 (02:37):
Huh. What's interesting is me fifty four year old man
living in the suburbs, my son nineteen year old in college,
wildly different experiences growing up as sports fans. We both
chose Game seven walk off home run in the World

(03:00):
World Series, and I've been trying to think about why,
and after the Freddie Freeman stuff, I realized it. It's
about pace, it's about moment. It's about time you hit
that home run, and it's it's like fifteen seconds of
anticipation and glory, right because you know it's going out.
The entire stadium is on pins and needles, it goes out,

(03:23):
everyone goes nuts, and then you got ten seconds of
running around the bases and when you hit home plate,
it is just the enthusiasm, the passion, the happiness, the
enthrall of all of it just lasts longer. The anticipation
is greater. Everything else is such a moment, like you
can't believe it. This you get to soak in it.

(03:45):
That's why I think the Game seven World Series walk
off home run easily the best.

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, and I told you, Andy's gotta be careful. Baseball
is having a moment, I thought.

Speaker 1 (03:55):
It's having a moment.

Speaker 3 (03:56):
After Barry Bonds, I thought I would never see a
player like that ever again, Like Barry.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Bonds, to me, you can say cheated.

Speaker 3 (04:03):
We all know he probably cheated, but allegedly he's to me,
the greatest player ever. The guy like they couldn't pitch him,
he had to walk him. He was so incredible. Otani
is just the ultimate. It's he's the greatest athlete probably
we'll ever see in sports right now. I'm sure there'll
be another one that comes along, but never say anything
like it like he just even last night they interviewed him.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
I think he went four for four, hit him something insane.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
A couple home double.

Speaker 2 (04:28):
They said, how you feeling, he goes, I need to
get the bet.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
I had to pitch him all and like, it's just
an insane while we're living and like I joked with
a buddy, we're big baseball fans, he invented something that
never existed before. That's how you know you are a
once in a lifetime game changer.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
I know, Tani.

Speaker 3 (04:42):
It's when you shrike out the side to start the
game and then we hit an opening home run in
the first that Batani, so it's like the guy is
just a living.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
Legend Otani when Bin Yama Shae Luca Ma homes like
we are living in an age of unprecedented athletic ability. Listen,
speaking of ability, we got a big announcement, big huge Okay, okay.

(05:12):
We went three and two last week and our five
favorite picks from our Sunday morning show.

Speaker 2 (05:16):
The ones out there. Sorry people, we did.

Speaker 1 (05:18):
We did. It's like, how do we go three and
two when probably the best week we had all year? Overall?

Speaker 3 (05:23):
It isn't it is we dodged. I think favorites went
ten and two, so I'll take it.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
Yeah, we won with the Patriots, the Texans, and the Broncos.
We lost with the Giants and the Steelers. For the year,
we're twenty four to sixteen through eight weeks with our
five favorites. But that's not the news. A lot of
old heads may remember our producer Matt Mitchell, who Matt

(05:47):
Mitchell from the fighting City of Rochester, New York, the
Paris of Western New York, the prints of the Bill Mafia,
a made Man, Milwaukee's Finest. It's really old Milwaukee and
Matt Mitchell are the best representatives there are of Milwaukee

(06:11):
today to welcome back to the show, mister.

Speaker 4 (06:15):
Matt Mitchell, Well, well, well what cue it is outstanding,
Chad Simon, It's wonderful to be back on these precious,
hallowed airwaves with you. I resigned my position at Action
Network about five weeks ago. I am very grateful to
our beneficent overlords now here at Volume for taking me

(06:39):
in and now I get to play totally out of
context Chad Noman drops like this one.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
That's Mac Jones right now. He's a witch nipple quarterback.

Speaker 5 (06:49):
We got Chad's favorite phrase, hit.

Speaker 1 (06:52):
People in the fucking mouth, run it up their fucking throat.
That's it.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
And my personal favorite, da Dad, I have an erection.
Who can even remember why these were said in the
first place. But now that I'm back in the saddle
here there's a new sheriff in town. I am thrilled
to be here before I get the hell out of
here and we get to week nine, which is what
people care about. I've been at the helm before this season.

(07:20):
I've been at the helm of this show from the
production side for about seven years. I love this show.
I wanted to share something I've never shared before, and
that is because Bill's cheaps coming up this week obviously
big game for us Bill's fans. The morning of the
twenty twenty two AFC Divisional Round game, the thirteen second
game between Buffalo and Kansas City.

Speaker 5 (07:41):
I actually got a voicemail from Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 4 (07:45):
And I know that will come as a shock to
a lot of you because I'm a nobody and Patrick
Mahomes is the greatest quarterback in the NFL. Butt for
the first time ever, I'm going to share that voicemail
with you.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
Got to be ready now here we go.

Speaker 6 (07:58):
I want you to listen very carefully, Mafia. Before this
night's over, I will kill you. But before I kill you,
I will make you suffer pains so unimaginable. You will
wagle and beg and pray for the gift of death.
But when you wake up in hell, you won't find peace.

(08:18):
You know why, Mafia, because I'll be there waiting for
you again.

Speaker 4 (08:24):
For you, and he was several times waiting for me again,
including this weekend.

Speaker 5 (08:31):
So shout out, Patrick Mahomes. Thank you for haunting both
this life and my afterlife to follow in hell.

Speaker 1 (08:39):
Well, listen, Matt, We're so glad to see your face.
It wasn't the same without you. I know people will
love hearing all of the ridiculous drops. They will get
to enjoy a timeless and evocative experience in audio, which
is your love. Now we can like talk about the

(09:02):
Bills and their tragedy of a season that is about
to unfold, and we can do it with you in
our heads and reference the fact that this is this
is unbelievably painful.

Speaker 5 (09:15):
For you, every day's waking nightmare.

Speaker 4 (09:17):
If anyone out there has any questions, complaints, want to
voice displeasure in any specific way on Twitter, Old boy,
Uncle Mitch, ol Boy, Uncle Mitch, you can say whatever
you want to me and I'll make sure it gets
filtered up the chain.

Speaker 5 (09:31):
So feedback is always again. Best of luck, boys, go outside, ner,
get out, go.

Speaker 1 (09:37):
I ain't got time to be distracted by your worthless
chime mans.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
Go.

Speaker 1 (09:40):
All right, Well, look, we're going to talk about this
Kansas City Buffalo game as we get into it. This
is the Tuesday Show. We're going to review the entire slate.
We're going to check out that Sunday AM show if
you want the games that we will be our official
five after we've had a chance to review the latest
moves and injuries. There are defin been lots of breaking

(10:01):
moves late breaking moves on Sundays that have impacted our
picks this season. Don't forget. You can get the shows
at Sharper Square on YouTube, go subscribe and like the video.
Download from Sharper Square on Apple Pods Spotify. We have
to get your pods.

Speaker 3 (10:15):
Okay, well, let me just say two off the top.
Matt Mitchell is here, like he said, if you guys
want to talk to him, get on social media on
Twitter Chat.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
He's he's running our account. I mean me and Chat.

Speaker 3 (10:26):
We're not the biggest Twitter guys, but Matt Mitchell's on
Sharper Square on Twitter posted our videos. Everyone out there,
we really appreciate spreading the word. I mean, they can't
see your likes anymore. On Twitter, people like all of
our videos. Keep giving us love. We appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (10:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (10:41):
Like on YouTube everything we love the YouTube love. If
you want the real authentic show, you want Matt Mitchell
with the amazing drops, It's got you out the podcast
the podcast version, It's it truly is the best version.
We do want your clicks on YouTube, But Matt with
the Drops. It's it's the third piece. We need it
for the show. It's what makes the show so great.
So if you haven't checked out the podcast version, check

(11:01):
it out. It's definitely unique with Matt Drops.

Speaker 1 (11:04):
We love that Matt Mitchell is back in charge. All right,
let's kick things off with Thursday Night but Ball Amazon
Prime eight to fifteen. Here's my question, the real bet
that I wanted to make, which already the Cats out
of the bag. John Harball will definitely and clearly announce
his starting quarterback in advance of this game. Yes, was

(11:28):
minus one thousand, No was off the board. I mean, look,
it's priced in. The Ravens opened at seven and a
half point favorites. They continue to be seven and a
half point favorites. Part of me feels like we're getting
value here because if not for the short week, and
like how the home teams have been doing in these games,

(11:49):
I do think anecdotally betting the home favorite has been
betting has been better than betting the home underdog. And
now we're basically getting Lamar Jackson off of what is it,
five weeks of rest against a Dolphins defense that against
the run other than this past week, has truly been horrific,
and the Falcons were not at full strength, so talk

(12:12):
me off of betting the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (12:16):
We might have to call this trap week Chad trap
by the way.

Speaker 1 (12:20):
It feels like that, right.

Speaker 3 (12:22):
It needs to be though like this the public we
talked about to New Age and we have adjusted.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
I mean, last week proved that.

Speaker 3 (12:28):
I still can't believe we had a winning week when
the favorites win ten and two whatever, it was something
insane like that.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
I think it was eleven and two and they won
by yeah, after last night, and they all won by
an average of like eleven points or something like that.

Speaker 2 (12:43):
I mean, our moneyland run Robin.

Speaker 3 (12:45):
If you could have just gave it on the spread,
we didn't even need Like That's how chalky this past
week was. So I just everyone out there, you can
keep getting away with it, but it's going to catch
you in. This week is line up to a week
to catch people here, and this started off with this game.
I can't tell people to back like you just said.

(13:06):
Lamar hasn't played in five weeks, which is good. He's rested,
but he's also totally out of rhythm. So this is
the perfect team to get in rhythm against that he
could do it. I'm not going to force us to.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
Make this one of our five or one of my
favorite bets.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
But like you're telling me, I'm getting in Miami plus
seven and a half two at home against a Ravens
defense that I still think is highly suspect. Like you said,
I mean I went back and watched a Caleb game.
There were opportunities that there were plays to be made.
He just had an off day. This is to his environment.
It's at home, as you know. As much as I

(13:38):
don't want to give him credit when he plays bad defenses.
You know that scheme, that run scheme they have, it
all works right. So that was the biggest thing I
took away too from that game last week was just then,
NOI I know, it's not the biggest name, he's an
older guy, him not him being injured and the Ravens
not having true pass rushers. That's like a real thing.

Speaker 2 (13:57):
There. There was no guy that scared you.

Speaker 3 (13:59):
I mean you know that with Yeah, last week he
had time like it's just him doing stupid stuff and
missing throws is why they didn't work last week. So
I am shocked to see all the money, all the tickets,
everything right now is on this Ravens side. Like I
don't know you, I feel like I got away with
them last week with that one.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
We kind of told it, well, look, we totally got
away with it last week. You know, even down to
the very last play of the game. We talked about
it on Sunday. The Bears still easily could have gotten
in the back door because you could have seen them
going for two after scoring a touchdown and making this
a thirty to twenty four game. We got way way
lucky with that game. But that also tells me something.

(14:40):
The fact this number hasn't moved off of the seven
half after the news about Lamar basically being set, basically
being said he's going to be the starter, and that
all the money and the tickets are coming in on
the Ravens. This number hasn't moved tells me that somebody
somewhere likes the Dolphins aggressively.

Speaker 3 (14:58):
Which is shocking because I as much as I get it,
like I talked about, this is a nice to a spot.
It's like we are talking about back in a Dolphins
team after a huge road win, when the whole five
we're not talking about.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
So I just I'm on Miami.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
I'm just I can't get over as something that's taking
a position now on the Ravens. Obviously a couple of
weeks ago to win their division and everything like that,
this is no doubt a must win game. But this
is the type of game that does trip up this
type of team. So you can get plus three point
thirty plus, you know, three forty right now Miami's money line.

(15:34):
If you're if you're taking the plus seven and a half,
you have to sprinkle a little bit on that Miami
money line.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
It's just a weird spot.

Speaker 3 (15:40):
It's a short week on the road for a Ravens
team that has a quarterback that is not in any
type of sink or flow with the offense. So if
this was if Lamar had played this past week and
this was a Sunday game, I think this is a
worthy number. Minus seven and a half after all those
things is worthy. No, no game and a short week

(16:00):
for this Ravens team that you know they're not a juggernaut.
This is not Ravens of last year. This is a
team hanging on by what feels like a thread right now.
This Ravens team minus seven and a half is just
totally totally aggressive priced in line feels like too much
respect for a team from last year, not a team
for this year. So again another time where I just

(16:22):
am shocked the books have opened this, But like Chad said,
the fact they haven't budged it shows the books and
some betters are taking very big positions on this Miami team.

Speaker 1 (16:31):
All right, Chicago at Cincinnati, the Bengals are two and
a half point underdogs. The professionals came in on the
Bears pretty early and they should absolutely eat against this
team right now. Joe Flacco and Trey Hundterson both considered

(16:54):
day to day. Flaco with the shoulder hundred percent with
the hip he did not play latter half of that game.
They can't get a pass rush. Their last in the
league in pass rush win rate, which is basically how
fast you can get two opponents or beat opponents off

(17:14):
the line on passing downs. The Bengals defense gave up
two hundred and sixty yards rushing to the New York Jets.
I would think after last week, whether they were playing
the Bengals or they were playing the number one rushing
defense in the NFL. Ben Johnson is not interested in

(17:35):
putting the ball in Caleb's hands in moments of leverage.
He wants the Bears to dominate on the ground. That's
how he has built his career. Just because the lines
you scored a lot of points doesn't mean that they
were just a pass happy team. They dominated on the ground.

(17:55):
That's what he wants the Bears to do. We saw
the Bears do that during their win streak. This has
a good opportunity to get back to that. So it
makes sense to me that the money has already come
in on the Bears, and with I kind of I
need more intel on Flacco and Hunderson, but the Bears
under three to me, I just love I love so

(18:18):
many favorites this week. And you said it's trap week
and I know, uh, but the Bears are the side here.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
Yeah, And I honestly was going to be all over
the Bengals.

Speaker 3 (18:28):
This was gonna be a nice bounce back spot for
but Flacco is truly banged up. I don't know if
people looked at this depth chart, you don't want to
see what's behind them. You don't want those guys come
in here. So yeah, between these two teams and all
their injuries, I need to know who's back in this
Bear secondary and uh.

Speaker 1 (18:45):
Not a lot of people.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
It's bad, right, So I mean that's the thing.

Speaker 3 (18:49):
It's like again, we have to give up picture, you know,
the over it's probably the spot where most we're going
to go. But I don't know how you can take
a position that over orsider anything like that without knowing
what Flacco's health is. So you're right, like, if you're
gonna make an early bed here and you have to
make a play Bears minus two and a half, that

(19:09):
to me is the safest regardless of what's going to
happen going forward of a bet right now, compared to
a Bengals team where if it is no Flaco just
could easily bump up to four or five, you know,
another two or three points. So yeah, this early line value,
your early read here is definitely right on this Bears.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
Team Atlanta at New England, this number is bumped down
from five and a half to five. At hard Rock Bet,
there's still a bunch of five and a half's out there.
It originally moved on Sunday two points from three and
a half up to five and a half. That was
wise guy money moving the number and totally made sense.

(19:46):
You had just seen a Falcons team very shorthanded, no
pen X, no Michael Pennox, no Drake London. They were
without Zach Harrison, who's their leading pass rusher, on a
very bad pass rush. They Jesse Bates midway through the game,
so you could see why the number moved and why
the wise guys pounced on it. Also, the Drake May

(20:09):
phenomenon continues. Even when he was sacked five times, he
was still throwing bombs and breathing touchdowns. But I understand
the buyback. I haven't gotten confirmation on who's going to
be playing for the Falcons. If I knew it was
going to be Penis, if I knew Drake London was

(20:30):
going to be playing, if I knew Jesse Bates was
definitely going to be back. Zach Harrison is still questionable.
He's the only guy who's gotten any pressure on this defense.
I'd be more comfortable paying playing the Falcons, But until
I know who's playing, I kind of can't play this.

Speaker 3 (20:45):
Yeah, but it's another game where we're supposed to play
the Falcons. This is probably supposed to be three to
three and a half line, and you know it's just
a tough spot for us where it's like we don't
know the health of any of these guys. I have
no doubt out that even if Kirk is cleared, I
don't know if I'm even going to bet it. Maybe

(21:05):
if it gets up to seven and a half or
some key number like that, I can bet on Kirk.
But he just looks so bad and so out of
sink last week and just someone that's not you look
like somebody has not be practicing with the ones right.
He just did not look all running that offense, and
everything suffered because of that. They couldn't run the ball
either against a horrible run defense because the defense new

(21:26):
we can just stack the box make Kirk try to
beat us. So I'm with you, not going to force it,
even though it's this New England stuff is just insane.
You look at their glass couple of games. They're playing
like a top two, top three AFC team right now.
They're just an absolute juggernaut. So yeah, I'm not gonna
rush to stand in front of them unless I have
a good number and I know the health of this

(21:47):
Falcons team. But yeah, everyone can tell if this is
Pendix and this is you know, a fully healthy Falcons
team Stummer is inflated, but as we sit here right now,
properly priced, Like if this is what you're looking for
a Drake Mavers Kirk Cousins, Yeah, I would take the
Patriots here and tell you this. Hard Rock is the
only book at five. Every other book is five and

(22:08):
a half. So if you want the best number of
the Patriots, hard Rock has it.

Speaker 1 (22:12):
Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Tennessee Titans the numbers nine
and a half. It's dropped down from ten. So some brave,
brave soul professional syndicate, I don't know what has come
in on the Tennessee Titans. It's a big number to

(22:36):
cover for our oft injured, underperforming heroes in Los Angeles.
But this is the week we bet them right when
they are road favorites against a terrible team after we
didn't bet them as home favorites against a decent team,
should be an auto play for us and the Chargers,

(22:58):
the team we are constantly chasing and never getting right,
and it turns out this will be the Titans week
to actually play like an NFL team and cover the spread.
So I just feel like on the field, I know
what I should do mathematically, I know what I should do.

(23:19):
Emotionally and spiritually, I kind of just don't want to
do anything with this, and I know I'll find things
I like more.

Speaker 3 (23:27):
No, I'll be in a constant battle every week trying
to get Chad to fade this Tennessee team. And you
missed it last week Shold went all over the Colts.
We missed it. And the same thing here with the Chargers.
What is there to back this Tennessee team? They are down,
they're number one, number two corners, which I can say
it's not that big of a deal.

Speaker 2 (23:44):
The number one corner a guy.

Speaker 3 (23:46):
They paid off the Chiefs for millions and millions of dollars,
that's a big deal. Your number one run defender, Jeffrey
Simmons being out, that's a huge deal. So if it's
no Ridley again, no Jeffrey Simmons, Like, if they're done
all these major pieces and they're already terrible team with
bad coaching minus nine and a half, I will promise
you I will get there. I will get there on

(24:06):
that Chargers team, no doubt about it. So yeah, I
I would love to hate on the Chargers and be like,
you're right, this is probably a tightened spot, but I
still think the books are just.

Speaker 2 (24:21):
I see clearly now.

Speaker 3 (24:22):
I feel like we were just so blind last year
and I just as someone that's just been fading this
Tennessee team, it's the best. It is just the best.
They are just such a train wreck. Everything about them
is like even their coaching decisions, Like they had a
couple of punts last week where it's like, does this
guy I understand he's playing against a cold team that's
just going to keep scoring against them, Like you can
be fourth and four from your own twenty and it's

(24:45):
a sima point game. You should be going for a
Tennessee You don't have a functional defense right now. So yeah, Chargers,
I'm with you. That was last week was their best
game of the year. I could see them keep rolling here.
This Chargers team just feels like another great matchup for
them where they want to run the ball and there's
just no defenders downfield that can stop lad McConkie Keenan

(25:05):
Allen like that type of I mean, they're tight end
now for the charge.

Speaker 2 (25:08):
Dolphsin's the stud. This rookie tight end Rond Gaston.

Speaker 1 (25:12):
I used to love Horonde Gaston when he played for
the Dolphins, he had massive hands and was so good
at catching the ball. A huge, huge fan of Ronde Gaston.

Speaker 3 (25:24):
So yeah, just I get where you're coming from. It's like,
is this line too big? I don't think it is.
So I'll grab the nine and a half while still can,
and I think this gets back up to ten.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
Ten and a half.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is an eight and a half
point favorite. Very excited to hear your response to my
analysis of this game because the first thing you said
off the top of the show, as soon as you
said that it's trap week, my mind immediately went to
this game. And I don't care because Chad's choice, presented

(26:03):
by hard Rock Bet, is going to be the Detroit Lions.

Speaker 2 (26:12):
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
willing to make a choice? What choice?

Speaker 1 (26:17):
We can't run from way out?

Speaker 2 (26:20):
Sharp dues can just see it, you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (26:26):
And when I bet this on Sunday night, I thought
great because I got it eight and a half. By
Sunday night it was up to nine and a half
and it steam seemed like it was just gonna steam
more aggressively across the board. And then Monday, it started
dipping down, it got back to nine, it got back
to eight and a half, and it's kind of just
steady at eight and a half right now. And I

(26:47):
truly don't get it, Like we're talking about a Minnesota
Vikings team that has kept JJ McCarthy on the bench.
He may or may not have been ready, but it's
an awfully long time for the injury that he had,
And they rolled out Carson Wentz who was playing with
torn labram separated shoulder going out there against the Chargers

(27:10):
in agony. Now they're bringing JJ McCarthy back against the
Lion's pass rush that is fierce, against the Lion's secondary
that is getting Brian Branch back from suspension, Kirby Joseph
back from injury, Terry and Arnold back from injury. They

(27:30):
are at home. Christian Darisol left the game last week
for the Vikings with a knee injury. The Lion's rushing game,
we know it's elite. We know that Dan Campbell and
Jared Goff at home covered at about a seventy clip.
And everyone talks about how great the Vikings defense is

(27:53):
and their pass defense is good, the rush defense is bad,
not mediocre, not you know, not something we're o. They're
just not as good as the pass defense. It's just
a bad rush defense. It's bottom ten and multiple advanced
analytics categories that bring all of the numbers together to

(28:13):
give you a holistic look at the rush defense. So
I know you're going to tell me it's a trap.
I'd walk into this trap all day. Give me the no.

Speaker 2 (28:21):
Not really though.

Speaker 3 (28:22):
It's the vikings on the road with a rookie tankically
a rookie starting quarterback, right, it's what it is, third
start or second start, So it's not There's other games
way more stinky than this one.

Speaker 2 (28:34):
I'm with you on the lines.

Speaker 3 (28:35):
I have just said ten tagulalarly get a point a
half of value the one bone I do have to
pick in life. We all make mistakes and we all
have to apologize. Kirk kurb street Man the stuff he
was saying about Carson Wentz talking about how he's not
acting like a leader. He shouldn't be throwing his helmet

(28:55):
and he shouldn't be in pain on the sideline after
getting demolished. He needs to act more professional. Okay, you
expect apology today or yesterday. It comes out this guy
is playing two straight games with a torn collar. Mode
he like he doubled down, doubled down into it, and
it's like, dude, get Kirk Kurve Street and his damn
dog out of my sport. I am now officially totally

(29:18):
out on this guy. I didn't mind him because he
is a wet blanket with an old man al Michaels
and sure, let them just talk about nothing for two hours.

Speaker 2 (29:26):
I do not care.

Speaker 3 (29:28):
It's Thursday night football. I am just so out on
this guy now. I can't tell you how mad I
was once I found out that this man was playing
with these grueling injuries and this guy is just telling
to act more professional. It's like, is this guy out
of his mind? This guy doesn't even know half these
people on this team because he only watch his Big
Ten football in college football. He needs I just don't
even get me start Kirk Curveshet. It's been a lot

(29:49):
obviously a rough night and he hadn't had a lot
of help.

Speaker 4 (29:53):
But to me, when you're when you're the captain of
the ship, you're the quarterback, you got to try to.

Speaker 2 (29:57):
Hold some of that emotion in.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
And I know he's it's frustrated, and he's hurt, and
he's hurt, but it's weak seven.

Speaker 2 (30:05):
You know, there's a long way to go, and I
have something that's just raw emotion.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
You think that I would have more opinions on the announcers,
having been in media for so long, I don't even
think about the announcers other than Troy Aikman, who's the
best cover guy in the history of sports. But I
go to bed at halftime and it's glorious. I'm not
even listening to these guys.

Speaker 3 (30:28):
I am unfortunately, and Kurk get out of my sport.
Go back to college where they have drums in the stands,
they're in games and all that bullshit, Like, I just
cannot have this man in the NFL anymore, disrespecting my family.

Speaker 2 (30:41):
Hero.

Speaker 1 (30:41):
Of course, can you go back to telling me how
right I am?

Speaker 3 (30:44):
Then, just I'm with you. I love the lines here.
Doesn't this feel like a great spot?

Speaker 1 (30:50):
And like great spot? It makes it going makes no
sense to me.

Speaker 3 (30:53):
Well, I wanted to dive into it because it's like, Okay,
maybe this is a Florist line, right, Let's let me
dive into how is golf on against these Florida's defenses
in the past and truly really well, Like going back
to twenty twenty two, the Lions beat them thirty four
to twenty three. The next game twenty three, they beat

(31:14):
him thirty to twenty four. And again this is what
Kirk Cousins, being the quarterback of this Vikings team, keeping
these games kind of close.

Speaker 2 (31:20):
Okay, let's go Sam Donald. Year.

Speaker 3 (31:22):
That was a really the first game they played, thirty
one to twenty nine. It was a really great game
by Sam Donald. And what we're again, you're seeing a
pattern here of thirty points every time against his Florid's defense.
And then, of course we remember last year the decide
number one seed Golf. This Detroit team beat the hell
out of the Vikings. It beat him thirty one to
nine to be the one seed last year. So I'm

(31:44):
with you and the fact that every match I've seen
Golf play against his Florid's defense, he's had thirty points
or more. Is I really don't see this kid coming
in here and putting up twenty one to twenty two
points against this Lions team.

Speaker 2 (31:59):
So pretty shocking, chat. I'm with you on it. I'm
excited to dive into the trends here.

Speaker 3 (32:03):
But of all the quarterbacks that I just don't like
betting this big favorites.

Speaker 2 (32:07):
I've never wavered that.

Speaker 3 (32:08):
I always feel confident, Yeah, betting golf as a big
favorite at home indoors. So if I've been standing on it,
we've been doing, I'll join your brother. I love your
chat's choice this week, fantastic.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
I love it.

Speaker 2 (32:20):
It's super choky though. It's like the biggest public player
of the week, but I don't care.

Speaker 1 (32:24):
Of course, it's Chalky bro that was the same thought
we do. That's been winning occasionally, and I don't mind
being on the right side of the public. Today's show
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(34:14):
Carolina at Green Bay. This number is twelve and a
half for the Green Bay Packers. They finally played like
the full and complete team that everyone thought they could be.
Jordan Love completed twenty straight passes in the game. The
Packers outscored the Steelers twenty one to six in the
final nineteen minutes and seventeen seconds of the game. Do

(34:36):
you know how I know it's exactly nineteen minutes and
seventeen seconds. I don't because on what was it Sunday night?
The Packers were up at halftime. I forgot what it was,
and it was Pittsburgh was Pittsburgh was up seventeen to

(34:57):
six whatever it was night, Yeah, something like that, sixteen
I think it was sixteen seven. So I've just been
staying up way too late, and I got to go
to bed, and so I go to bed at halftime,
and I'm ready to turn off the lasse. I like
to read for a little bit before I go to bed.
It helps me fall asleep. And I say to my

(35:17):
wife as I'm rolling over, Hey, just type into Google,
gimme Steelers Packers score right now, and she gave me
the score. She said it was nineteen fourteen with five
forty three left in the game, and in the third
I mean, yeah, you're with me, thank you, and I'm like, okay, great.
So when I woke up and so I was thirty
five twenty five, I remembered exactly what the score was

(35:38):
and the time was when I went to bed. And
by the way, I can't recommend going to bed at
halftime of a game when you have a bet enough,
because otherwise you're spending the next three hours Ajita Better's
math stressing out and then you're not falling asleep when
you have no impact on the outcome and you can

(36:00):
wake up and feel better. And it's a two minute thing.

Speaker 3 (36:04):
Yeah, and obviously bad bet by hus Pittsburgh felt good
at halftime, like we were saying, but uh yeah this again.
I don't want to quick the refs, but basically the
game chat stupid enough came down to Rogers thought he
on off sides. The refs didn't call it even though
it was clear off sides. Playing his day off sides
with the defense. They punt give the block to Jordan Love.

(36:28):
I think it was thirty and ten blits in his face.
He has an under thrown ball just off his back
foot Jordan Love and Tucker Craft a little bit of
a push off, but just an insane play by him,
catches it and takes the ball, say seventy yards downfield
Tucker Craft, and after that point I think they scored
like three straight times.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
Yeah, it was just over.

Speaker 3 (36:49):
Jordan Love finally got in rhythm and they were just unstoppable.
And yeah, this this is the type of game where
even if this was Bryce Young, I'd probably still try
to find the way to be on the Packers like
we always do these adjusted lines. I'll find a way
to get there. But a mince twelve and a half.
I don't have confidence betting Jordan Love at that big
of a number, and Panthers wise too much unknown right.

Speaker 1 (37:10):
Now, we don't know about Bryce Yeng.

Speaker 3 (37:12):
Yeah, and like I told you, there's no world I'm
gonna put money on any Dalton again. So yeah, I'll
be patient here, maybe do some early teasers on this
Packers team. But the hope is if it is Bryce Young,
maybe it drops a blow ten, we get a better
number on teasers. Whatever, take a position. But this is
a game I'm just not betting this week.

Speaker 1 (37:30):
Bryce Young ran on Monday, but we will know more
about his status on Wednesday. Indianapolis Colts the Juggernauts at
the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three. So look, we got caught
in a rah rah Mike Tomlin spot on Sunday night.
They were three and a half. We bet it. Did

(37:53):
we learn that his rah rah mojo cannot overcome consistently
bad past coverage and aging defensive backs on Sunday night?
Did we learn that it's a problem when the player

(38:14):
generating the most results from pressure is not TJ. Watt
or Alex Highsmith but a linebacker named Nick Did we
learn it's a problem when you're playing a lot of
man coverage and a lot of single high safety against
quarterbacks who can eat that up, including by the way,

(38:37):
Daniel Jones, who's been dicing up single high safety coverage.
So that's a problem. That's a problem. I don't want
to get stuck raw raying our way to another l
because of what our history says.

Speaker 3 (38:56):
Yeah, because this is definition of a trap spot for
this Colds team.

Speaker 2 (38:59):
There are absolutely.

Speaker 3 (39:00):
Juggeringn out seven to one playing against a Pittsburgh team that.

Speaker 2 (39:05):
Not only they lost to in a row.

Speaker 3 (39:06):
They've looked down right, like Chad just said, embarrassing, horrible,
atrocious defensively in those games. So minus three on the Colts,
I probably will still take that number as we see
here right now. Like it to me, Pittsburgh should be
plus three, plus three and a half plus four up there,

(39:26):
not just sitting right now like they are. You know,
it's it's a Colts number still at minus three, So
I know it's the stinkiest, chalkiest bet ever. But Chalk
has been winning. Like we've said, in home field, it's
just not hitting like I used to, and a couple
of games I'm forcing us to take some of these
dogs at home, but I just can't get there. In Pittsburgh.

(39:46):
That was all lined up for them right the first half.
They gave up an opening drive touchdown and then they
had a kicker in miss two field goals, and it's
all there. It was just all lined up for that
type of Tomlin game. The defense had rallied, they were
playing better, looking better, and they just all the offense
and the defense just fell off a cliff in the
second half. It's just like Chet said, it ain't hitting.

(40:07):
It like he used to. Like this is even go
back two or three years ago with Mason Rudolph, we
would be all over Pittsburgh here in this spot, but
I can't get there. This Colts team does feel like
an absolute juggernaut, and maybe I can get us to
avoid taking the Colts on Sunday. But as we say
right now, it's like I love this team at minus three,
just feels like they're still being undervalued by the market.

Speaker 2 (40:28):
They're just in what world is this close?

Speaker 3 (40:31):
We're gonna need a total meltdown for Daniel Jones, and
when you have the MVP as a running back, does
that happen. It's just like you just said, they're gonna
have to play single high safety to take away this
run game, and Daniel Jones has been burning it, burning it.
So I'm just trying to find reasons, trying to look
at the numbers finding for Pittsburgh. Can't do it, even though,

(40:53):
like Chad said, every ounce inch of our body is
telling us to take Pittsburgh here and this is the
definition from a trap. But I just once again can't
get there on this Pittsburgh team.

Speaker 1 (41:03):
You just said the magic words, and I love that.
When we're in a mind meld because we have not
discussed this, but you said undervalued and MVP, and the
other day yesterday, I was sort of thinking about this game,
and I was thinking about Jonathan Taylor, and we've talked
about a couple of games this year. We've backed the
Colts because of Jonathan Taylor, not because of Daniel Jones.

(41:26):
So of course I had to go check the MVP
odds to see where is Jonathan Taylor in the current
race to be m v P after the weekend that
he had against the Titans. Right now, the people are
ahead of Jonathan Taylor in the MVP race. Patrick Mahomes,
Josh Allen, Drake may Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield.

Speaker 2 (41:50):
Dan what gen my guy hurts up there?

Speaker 1 (41:53):
He's not up he's he's oh my god, I.

Speaker 3 (41:56):
Think total touchdowns, he's got one pick, and he's had
played the hard schedule in football.

Speaker 5 (42:01):
Daniel Joness, this is, oh my god.

Speaker 3 (42:05):
I'm about to lose my mind right now because I
don't look at MVP shit, but holy.

Speaker 1 (42:08):
Al Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and then and
then Jonathan Taylor at twenty to one.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
That's still honest. That's too high, you know, Taylor.

Speaker 1 (42:26):
Yeah's incredible. Hold on one second. Let me oh, by
the way, Since yesterday, Jonathan Taylor has dropped from twenty
to one to sixteen to one, ahead of Jordan Love,
Jared Goff, and Jalen Hurts, who was just behind Jonathan Taylor.
But here's what's crazy about Johnny.

Speaker 3 (42:47):
Three straight game three touchdowns, right, he had some crazy
record like that.

Speaker 1 (42:50):
Three games three touchdowns this season, the last running back
and he's had I think three touchdown three three touchdown
games this season. The last running back to have that
many was Loudanian Tomlinson with five when he won the
MVP in two thousand and six. The only other running

(43:10):
back to win MVP between two thousand and six and
this year is Adrian Peterson when he had you know,
two thousand yards for the Vikings in twenty twelve. Jonathan
Taylor's had ten touchdowns in the past four games, the
first time that has happened in a four game span
since twenty fifteen. And this one from our good buddy
Bill Barnwell at ESPN, who posted this yesterday and his

(43:32):
always must read Monday recap column. Jonathan Taylor has accounted
for three point nine percent of all the league's rushing
yards by a running back this season. His team is
seven and one, and thank god, even in the past
twenty four hours since I looked at this, his eyes
had shrunk a little bit. So there is some semblance

(43:55):
of common sense amongst NFL betters for recognizing Jonathan Taylor
having an historic year. By the way, he is minus
two fifty to win Offensive Player of the Year, so
we know that, we know that's the running back award.
But it's just ridiculous that we become such a quarterback league,

(44:17):
quarterback focus league, that a guy who is doing things
that is really carrying this team, Jonathan Taylor is the
most important player on this team right now and they're
seven to one and.

Speaker 3 (44:29):
Say that, and I get where you're coming from, But
talk to a Colts fan, a real Colts fan, about
what life has been like after Andrew Luck. It's just
the quarterback position. Nothing's really changed. I know they added
Warren the tight end, but you saw that team last
year with Anthony Fristin and Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor's had

(44:50):
good years, but nothing comparable to this. And that's just
the difference. A good quarterback makes because you can just
run different plays and schemes, and yeah, this year, I
think you're spot on on the fact that he is.
We agree he is the best player of football right now.
But if Mahomes gets that one or two seed and
keep putting off the numbers he's putting up, of course,
I know.

Speaker 2 (45:09):
That's what sucks.

Speaker 3 (45:10):
So that's that's the tough part because it's as incredible
as he is. The Eagles won the Super Bowl and
Saquon our MVP ran for fifty yards, like it just
you can take that position away and you can win
by forty points in the Super Bowl. If your quarterback
can't complete the ball twenty yards downfield, it's just that's
never gonna happen, right, That's why the quarterback is so

(45:31):
much more important. So it just sucks for Taylor. Like
you said, if he keeps putting these numbers up, it's
gonna make it a real decision because that's the only
thing that Saquon was missing. He had the yards, you
just didn't have the touchdowns. So that's the last time
we want it. Like Chad said, Ladanian Thomason, he had
the storyline, he had the touchdowns. Adrian Peterson when he
won it, he was coming off a major kne injury

(45:52):
and like, we just didn't that year there was no
good like great quarterback so it could line up. I'm
not trying to tell people it's a dumb bet. I
wouldn't make it just because it's it should be fifty
to one. That's that's the type of odds it really
is in actuality.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
All right, San Francisco at the Giants, Giants are two
and a half point dogs. I know it's Chalky did
like the Niners here, but after playing the Texans defense,
this is going to feel like playing against eighth graders
because the only rush toy worse than the Titans is
the Giants, literally the only one, and that's what the
Niners are gonna want to do. And now all of

(46:28):
a sudden, the Giants are without Camp Skataboo, and I
think it's a tough road to go down right now
because that's spirit, Like their spirit was just taken from them.

Speaker 3 (46:42):
What is this line though, And that's like this was
almost Simon says, I'm not forcing it because the Giants
are the right side here, but I think it's gonna
get the plus three maybe plus three and a half because,
like Chad said, it's it's gonna be all love for
the forty nine ers here. There's a lot of underlining
numbers where this is a good matchup for them, and hey,
maybe Purty we'll be back and I'll move it even more.

(47:03):
But my god, does this line stink the holy hell
them giving us under a field goal here because it's
a no brainer niner spot after that bad loss.

Speaker 2 (47:14):
I just do not get this line at all.

Speaker 3 (47:16):
The books are not here to give out free money,
so man, I'm with you, it's very tempting. My model
loves the forty nine ers year like I have this
right now at minus four, whether it's Max Jones or Purty,
it's a point a half of value.

Speaker 2 (47:30):
That's a ton of value, so key number.

Speaker 3 (47:32):
I just I don't There's so many games I'm already
being a sucker, and I can't be a sucker on
this one. This is giants are nothing at all for me.

Speaker 1 (47:39):
Denver at Houston Houston minus one and a half. This
is flipped from Houston plus one and a half. You
mentioned this Sunday night, you liked Houston. We both bet
Houston at plus one and a half. The line has
moved largely because pascertain is going to be out, and
so now you've got a basically the two probably two

(47:59):
of the best defenses in the NFL, especially when it
comes to rushing the passer, going against each other. And
I would have felt better about the Broncos chances even
though I had bet the Texans if Passer Taine was playing,
because the Broncos are so good at getting extra pressure
with five guys because they know Passer tain is on

(48:20):
somebody and they can they can not worry about that
side of the field. I think that this is a big,
big difference, and I'm just glad I got the plus
one and a half.

Speaker 2 (48:31):
Yeah, once again, trap game.

Speaker 3 (48:32):
It's the public is going to be all over this
Denver team once again.

Speaker 2 (48:37):
Just like last week.

Speaker 3 (48:37):
You still be undervalued where people are realizing this is
one of the best defenses in football. They're legit juggernaut
and unlike Denver, who are going to be missing guys,
Houston's getting guys back and they're getting healthier and they
should have hopefully Nico Collins back, which will be a
big bump when they're down their number one corner in
Denver and Denver feels like a little bit of an

(48:59):
overvalued team. I know they're still a top of the
division right now that people are feeling good right that
huge blow win or the Cowboys, But my god, I
couldn't believe when I saw the splits on this game,
all the public love for Denver.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
It just makes it so easy in my job.

Speaker 3 (49:14):
Like that again, them not being scared about this sign
flipping just shows just like that last week with the
forty nine ers, It's like, that's real alarms to you people,
and those professional money is moving a number three points
this early in the week, that's a big deal. And yeah,
just matchups on the field wise, there are ways for
Denver's offense to attack this Houston team and exploit some

(49:36):
things that other teams have this year. But it just
feels like another spot where Houston defense at home they're
going to perform well against. I think bo Knicks, who
struggled against really good teams that disguise blitz packages, which
is what Houston loves to do with Demiico Ryans, He's
just a really smart defensive mind. I mean, Kyle Shaneyon
talks about all the time. Him and Sala two of
the smartest guys, he's ever been around defensively, So how

(50:00):
much we love Salah, I say I have the same
respect here for Dimiko Ryan. So Houston was gonna make them,
Simon says, if they were still plus one and af
like Chad said, the number has moved. Still think there's
value there, it's still under the key number of two.
Still think it's a good bet. But I'm like you,
I wish this was still us getting a good dog here.

Speaker 2 (50:18):
But let's be patient.

Speaker 3 (50:20):
Let's hope some smart group comes in on Denver, maybe
gives us back to being a dog here. But yeah,
like you said, I'm not rushing to take it. But
it feels like a really really good spot once again
for this Houston team.

Speaker 1 (50:31):
New Orleans at Los Angeles. The Rams are thirteen and
a half point favorites, just a really big number. We
don't know who's playing quarterback yet for the Saints. Is
Spencer Rattler's era over is a time for Tyler Shuck.
We don't know what's going to be happening there yet.

(50:53):
There's been no word out of New Orleans. I don't
know that it really matters. I also don't really want
to bet the Rams anything outside of a parlay on
the favorites at thirteen and a half. They've won a
couple of games by pretty big numbers this year.

Speaker 2 (51:10):
But.

Speaker 1 (51:12):
Something about like I don't trust them. I don't trust
them as being a blowout team against bad teams, do
you know what I mean?

Speaker 3 (51:23):
I think it's just because in the past they haven't
been and maybe this year is different and they're just
going to roll these bad teams and that's, you know,
something that's just fluky with them being this season. But
I'm with you, I have honestly no interest in taking
this game or betting this game, Like same thing with
that Green Bay game that I think you already talked about.
Maybe we'll take an adjusted line here on LA. But
I have a hard time trusting either team, let alone

(51:44):
this Saints team that we don't know who the quarterback is.
And that's a big deal to me trying to bet it.

Speaker 1 (51:49):
Good because I really want to talk about Jacksonville and
the Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders right now are plus three
at hard Rock, plus three and a half elsewhere. I'm
not going to This came very close to being Chad's
choice betting the Jacksonville Jaguars good a minus.

Speaker 3 (52:10):
Well, that's a trap. I want to make sure like
you're just like everyone else. It's the trap of traps.

Speaker 1 (52:15):
Jags, Oh yeah, I love the Jacks here.

Speaker 2 (52:18):
Yeah, I'm just glad you stayed away.

Speaker 1 (52:20):
No, no, like, I still bet the Jags minus three.
Oh look, the jags biggest weakness, as I've said many,
many times, is Trevor Lawrence. He's completing fifty eight percent
of his passes and what is this line? He's not
a very good quarterback?

Speaker 4 (52:36):
Is this?

Speaker 1 (52:37):
The Raiders defensive backfield is a trosis twenty seventh in
the league in expected points added. Their propensity for zone
allows for much bigger plays in the middle of the
field and years after the catch. Like, if I have
to trust somebody to improve over a bye week and
both teams are coming off a bye week, is it
going to be Liam Cohne coaching up Trevor Lawrence and

(52:59):
finding a scheme that allows him to be comfortable to
takeing advantage of a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible secondary Or
is it Pete Carroll trying to figure out how to
do what his specialty is supposed to be, which is
improving the defense. I don't see it you say it
the trap, I say it's an opportunity.

Speaker 2 (53:18):
Could be.

Speaker 3 (53:19):
You're definitely right, like the minus three probably is the
best tum we're going to get on this Jaguars team.

Speaker 1 (53:24):
But that's also why I bet. I knew it was
going in that direction.

Speaker 3 (53:28):
Yeah, there's only one way it could go, though, I
don't know who is betting the Raiders. I do not
get once again, this line hanging right now is so stinky.
It is so like these lines this week are ridiculous.
I just I don't get it. Like the books are
now our best friends, I guess because this is this

(53:48):
is insane there, they're just the fact they willing to
take for two days now, all this money on the
Jaguars at this number is just mind blowing to me
because no one's betting Vegas. Vegas the one of the
worst teams in football. They're undisciplined, they're poorly coached. Max
Crosby was banged up before the bye week.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
Like, it's just so bad.

Speaker 3 (54:08):
And dysfunction right now. So yes, you're getting a good number.
One model agrees with you. But as someone that's doing
this for a living and sees these lines every week,
I can I can't tell people to bet it. I
can tell you the Jags minus three is the best number.
But I just this number stinks, such a trap game,
such a bad spot. I just cannot give out the Jaguars.

Speaker 1 (54:29):
Coward total cower.

Speaker 3 (54:31):
It's just sad, just a millionaire sports better. Okay, I'm
trying to protect people here. This there's all these games
are so stinky, how easy they are, and this is
one of them.

Speaker 1 (54:42):
Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City is a one and
a half point favorite, and it's moving since they beat
the Commanders. Do you have something you'd like to say here?

Speaker 3 (54:58):
Yeah, this is my Simon says, but give me the
Chiefs minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (55:02):
I want to play a game. Simon says, this number
is moving.

Speaker 3 (55:06):
Hopefully people can get it at this number. It still
is minus one and a half as you see right
now at a hard rock, but a lot of books
are already moving up to two and a half. Again,
luckily for me, it's not super trappy. I was worried
about this game when I first saw it. There are
pros on the bills, there are guys taking positions on
the bills, Thank god, because I thought this was going
to be the public, everybody just like that Jags game,

(55:29):
pros and the public lining up to take a number
that I don't understand. I do not understand this Chiefs number.
I thought this would be minus three. My model has
it in Mius three and a half. It's still minus
one and a half at hard Rock. This is crazy,
crazy value in my opinion, on the Chiefs that are
fully healthy, in incredible flow state. Their whole offense is

(55:50):
just rolling like that. I knew Rice would be a
big injection to that offense. You would never know who's
coming off a major knee injury. It's been a credit
how good he's been since he's been back. So just
Chiefs team to me, still being undervalued.

Speaker 2 (56:06):
The Bills.

Speaker 3 (56:06):
On the flip side, I can't get over how bad
Josh Allen has been this season. That Bills game that
was Josh MVP Allen. He has not been that quarterback
in any game since then. It feels like every game
I go and I watch of him. I don't put
total blame on him, because I do think they've failed
him with the receivers they've given him. They just don't
have guys that can get open for the most part,

(56:28):
and you know, it's it's tough for me to go
against Josh here, right, he's at home. I'm going to
be a big home dog. But I don't think the
Bills are good. And you talk about the injuries to
their defense with Ed Oliver now being out again, It's like, Okay,
it's a team that struggled against the run, already, has
issues in the secondary stopping good passing offenses, and they

(56:49):
don't have any type of pass rushers.

Speaker 2 (56:50):
So I just can't get there.

Speaker 3 (56:52):
This Bills team, to me, it's not priced right, It's
really priced about Josh Allen being a home dog where
he's you know, excel at in his career. Right, Usually
you think of him at home these type of games.
He's done so well. But you know, when I really
dove into it and broke it down, it's like, when
am I really backing here with this team?

Speaker 2 (57:12):
Other than Josh Allen? I couldn't find anything.

Speaker 3 (57:15):
So I know it's shocking both of us favorites for
our favorite bets here we sit on Tuesday, But I
do love the Chiefs on a short week on the
road as a favorite.

Speaker 2 (57:27):
It's a weird spot for.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
Me, A weird spot when you say it out loudly.

Speaker 2 (57:30):
I know. I just also, it's price wrong.

Speaker 1 (57:33):
Ed Oliver's out, Like that's a big deal when you're
saying Ed Oliver is out for the Bills, and that's
what you're sort of hanging your hat on as a
Bills fan, that he is the best defender and he's out.
This Chiefs team defensively, offensively, they look so much better
than they did last year. It's the exact right plays

(57:54):
on both sides of the ball at the exact right time.
They are not flustered. They really look like when moments
of stress occur during the game, you can feel the
tension across the field, right, you can feel it from
the players, you can feel it from the coaches. You
never feel that from the Chiefs. You just don't. It

(58:16):
doesn't matter whether it's Spags or Andy Reid, Like you
just don't feel anything nervous or anxious coming from them
because they are playing in such a zone right now.
So yeah, we both love the Chiefs here.

Speaker 3 (58:27):
Yeah, and even last night a really stupid game where
things weren't going their way, right, they've what seven points
to start the game and also knows tied a half
game on the second half, maybe the adjustments.

Speaker 2 (58:37):
They just dominated in every aspect.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
So, like you said, they're easily the best team of
football right now. And yeah, if you're thinking of you
know how wide open the NFC is right now, which
I agree with the AFC, it feels like it's going
to be the same old story. They's just the Chiefs
just feel like they're far and above the best team
right now. Other than injuries, the deal rayl at the season,
they just feel like there's such a complete team right

(59:00):
now compared to what, like you said, they were last year.

Speaker 1 (59:04):
All right, time to focus on our prime time spotlight.
We're going to talk about these games the standalones as
a little bit of a package. Seattle at Washington, Washington
is three and a half. It started moving yesterday. You
liked Seattle Sunday when it was three. The line has
moved in that direction. We would expect Jaden Daniels to

(59:25):
be playing. Here's the real question for me, This is
a trust Sam Donald game. The Commander's rush toy is mediocre,
but the past d is terrible, bottom five in every
category basically, So you know it's going to be about

(59:45):
Sam Donald and his ability to win the game, which
he's done. I'm not discounting anything he's done. He's definitely
won them put them in a position to win games
this year, but they're not going to be able to
out physical this team, which is how Seattle's been winning
games this year.

Speaker 3 (01:00:06):
Yeah, and like we keep talking trap games, this is
the definition of a trap game. Washington embarrassed primetime game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:14):
Sure, we're at home with the quarterback coming back.

Speaker 3 (01:00:17):
Like That's why I wanted to people to grab the three,
because it's like, I just another game where it's like, what,
there's only one direction for this number to go right?
So I hope people got the three. Maybe you can
still find it out there.

Speaker 2 (01:00:30):
Like our.

Speaker 3 (01:00:32):
Our tough choice will be, are we are we really
back in sacks at master and a half. We know
it's super public, super extinct.

Speaker 1 (01:00:38):
I don't know that we will, Like at three and
a half, I'm.

Speaker 3 (01:00:42):
Still I'm probably still going to I know, I hate
to say, I'm probably stilling to better chat.

Speaker 2 (01:00:45):
I hate it. I'm hating myself for.

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
It because I feel like I'm doing good avoiding like
that Jags game for instance, Like, but I don't know
if I can avoid this one like this.

Speaker 1 (01:00:54):
Avoiding with the Jags is a win.

Speaker 3 (01:00:58):
I know, I know, but I feel like you forget
the experience. I'm betting on Trevor Lawrence and it's going
to hit you midway through the third quarter when he
has four picks somehow against a horrible Raiders defense.

Speaker 1 (01:01:08):
But Trevor Lawrence, everything's going to be fixed.

Speaker 3 (01:01:11):
Like that's what I mean that when I'm betting these
trap spots, it really is about the teams and them,
And like I feel confident in the Colts and Daniel
Jones and that offense with their run game, Sam Year
or the Seahawks, Like I think they have a good
run game with two headed monster Sam Donalds playing such
a high level in their defense.

Speaker 2 (01:01:26):
Like we talk about they travel.

Speaker 3 (01:01:28):
They've been better on the road than they have been
at home under their new head coach in the regime.
So who it's stinky, but I'm there, unfortunately, and we'll see.

Speaker 2 (01:01:39):
I'm excited toe what my model does with this line.

Speaker 3 (01:01:41):
If it is Jayden Daniels, but I have just priced
him so low my model right now, just because he's
not the same player with the bum knee, and you
saw it even last night their head coach, I know
he got.

Speaker 2 (01:01:55):
Them to the NFC Championship.

Speaker 3 (01:01:57):
He feels like an idiot in some ways, Like you
can't coach the same way with Mariota as you did
with Daniel Jones, who was eighty percent fourth down. So yeah,
between the coaching matchup all of it, I just what
am I. I'm trying to get there in Washington. I
can't find anything that get me there. They're just everything
about them seems abysmal, and the Seahawks just seem like
top four.

Speaker 1 (01:02:17):
That's the challenge, right is that we're always talking about
is when do you play the number? When do you
play the situation, and when do you play what you
see on the field. To me, this is sort of
that classic spot where you're getting the team that just
got blown out that isn't as good against the team
that the public loves, and you're getting the hook and

(01:02:39):
if you get the key to the offense in Jayden
Daniels back against a good defense, but he can be slippery.
That's where we run into trouble for not having the
imagination for the possibility because of the situation and the number.

Speaker 3 (01:02:58):
Yeah, maybe I'll get there, Brosercai. Right now, I'm all aboard.

Speaker 1 (01:03:01):
Seattle Arizona Dallas. Dallas is a two and a half
point favorite. It's come down from Cowboys minus three. That
one I don't get. I actually I like I like
the Cowboys here.

Speaker 2 (01:03:19):
I like it really.

Speaker 1 (01:03:20):
Situationally, I like the Kyler will be starting to.

Speaker 2 (01:03:24):
Run opposite size this week.

Speaker 1 (01:03:26):
We aren't a lot of opposite side.

Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
That's good, though we were agreeing too much.

Speaker 1 (01:03:31):
I just think it's the right spot for the Cowboys.

Speaker 3 (01:03:34):
I just you know, in my opinion, I don't think
the Cowboys should be favorites or anybody unless they're playing
some of the worst teams in football.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
Arizona, to me, is not one of the worst teams
in football.

Speaker 3 (01:03:43):
If it's Kyler, shockingly, don't mind him coming back in
this spot. This is the perfect type of defense to
get right against. They're just abysmal in every way. So yeah,
you you're probably right if you want to get to
Mince two and a half. I don't mind that if
you're going to get Dallas. But if if it's three,
has to be Arizona, Like, this is not the type

(01:04:04):
of game Dallas will be able to blow a team
out with. I think Arizona be able to be competitive.
Their offense can move the ball, whether it's Kyler or
you know, er Set. I have confidence this Arizona offense
to stay staying, keep it close to this Dallas team.
But like you said, the Dallas offense the trust of
their kicker. If it's under three, okay, that's fair enough.

(01:04:24):
They have the best kicker on football. That's a key
number for type of kicker he is. But yeah, at
plus three, the value to me is all on Arizona.
Like the money line plus one thirty as well, that's
the value I want to be at.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
Yeah, I play both of these prime time games. I'm
just playing the number three and a half and two
and a half. Three and a half and two and
a half, that's what I'm doing. I'm getting a home
team at less than a field goal with a great
offense against a not great defense. And I'm getting the
home team at more than a field goal with their
best player coming back coming off a really bad game

(01:05:00):
in prime time where I know the public's going to
be against him again on a row favorite.

Speaker 3 (01:05:06):
Yeah, my only pushback would be green Bay lost to
the green Bay beat this Arizona team. They could have
lost to him, They beat him twenty seven to twenty three.
It's pretty respectable.

Speaker 1 (01:05:16):
With Jacoby Brissette, and I think we talked about until
Kyler Murray.

Speaker 2 (01:05:21):
Kyleer has never lost, you know that, right, He's never
lost in Dallas.

Speaker 1 (01:05:23):
Kyler Murray high school college bro Kyler Murray lawrens to
start running the offense through Trey McBride and not doing
his little pitter patter, then I don't think this offense
can be as effective as it was, and we saw
the past two weeks.

Speaker 2 (01:05:41):
I'm gonna get to it.

Speaker 3 (01:05:41):
You cut me off check because you're a cutter offer.
Lost to the Colts thirty one to twenty seven. Again,
close game, okay, twenty two to twenty one, Tennessee twenty
three to twenty Seahawks fifteen to sixteen against this forty
nine is team. So every game's close, you're going to
plus three. That's my whole point here. It's like you're

(01:06:02):
feels that you're taking a little bit of a bad
spot here in Dallas where Dallas could win.

Speaker 2 (01:06:07):
You will. You will hate yourself at Lands on the two,
no doubt about it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:11):
I am not a cutter offer.

Speaker 2 (01:06:13):
You did.

Speaker 1 (01:06:16):
All right the games we know we agree on Detroit
minus eight and a half. Yeah, we're talking about the Chargers.
We haven't gotten there yet, but at least we both
agree on the team we'd want to bet. Uh if
we get there. Another one like that Indie minus three,
we want to get there. Houston minus one and a half.

(01:06:39):
We both like a lot. But yeah, full disclosure, we
both got Houston plus one and a half.

Speaker 3 (01:06:43):
That's repenning, Like I'm be really betting into it as
them as a favorite most likely.

Speaker 1 (01:06:47):
Uh, the Jags minus three one of us loves, one
of us knows it's right and away from it and
is afraid to love it. And then Kansas City mightus
want and a half? We definitely love. But I think
there's a lot of games, including these prime time games,
that we're going to have to revisit on Thursday. I
want to hear what the shrubs have to say about

(01:07:09):
where we're at. I feel like a lot of them
are going to be with me this week.

Speaker 2 (01:07:13):
You're very public this week.

Speaker 1 (01:07:15):
This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Thursday with the Games Versouri
When your noun plus or survivor bick our head to
head to head battle brass Ball so much more. Watcher
listen on YouTube at sharper Square. Like the video, Subscribe
with the channel also Downald from Spotify, Apple, Pose, wherever
you get your podse rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,

(01:07:37):
state whatever you want. Feedback is to get Until next time.

Speaker 5 (01:07:39):
I Love you

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