Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 10 Bets: Rams-49ers, Ravens-Vikings, Packers-Eagles and NFL Trade Deadline Reactions - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bat. We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares sharper and mix. The wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
I am joined as always by my co.

Speaker 1 (00:16):
Host, my bff, my companion, my campadre professional better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:27):
I woke a little sad today. I think we only
have three months left a football brother. I can't believe
it's flying by this fast.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
When I started making notes for the show yesterday, you know,
I title all my notes columns like Sharp week XX Tuesday, Thursday,
Sunday AM, Sunday PM. When I wrote week ten, it
was shocking to me, like the on ramp to joining

(00:54):
the Volume was so sudden. And then to now be
ten weeks into this thing and the season be more
than halfway over.

Speaker 2 (01:05):
Is I'm already kind of sad.

Speaker 1 (01:10):
It always hits me when you know after the clock
changes and by the four thirty games it's dark, and
I know when I take the garbage out later, it's
going to be cold and dark, and it's going to
be like that, And the only thing that makes me
happy on a Sunday is the football, and that's like

(01:33):
we're on the other side of it.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
That's no fun.

Speaker 4 (01:37):
I know.

Speaker 3 (01:37):
I'm an other way though, as a guy who's overweight,
this is overweight man season, got it bundled up. I
love Thanksgiving again a big guy. Love Christmas like I
love this time of year with football, it actually matters
and the games matter like that Bill's Chiefs game. I
feel like the first real playoffs tone center of this season,
Like it's got me right into the mood of November

(01:59):
December foot Well, so I'm with you.

Speaker 4 (02:02):
I obviously I'm a flip flop guy.

Speaker 3 (02:03):
I love the warm weather, but this is the best
like as a football fan, as a as a cold
weather fan, doesn't get much better than right now.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
How much weight will you actually gain during overweight season?

Speaker 3 (02:16):
I don't because I pack it on like I stress
a hardcore. September we had a rough We had a
nervous September because we had to do well. Yeah, we
probably put twenty pounds on then I probably dropped five
pounds since because like it's all good, right, life's all
good now.

Speaker 4 (02:31):
But yeah, September, that was a tough month for your boy.

Speaker 3 (02:33):
I was stress eating because I just couldn't sleep. Like
that's the hardest part. If you can't sleep, you just
eat and you knock out. You know it is if
you have a full stomach, it just knocks you out.
Like I'll just see a bowl of pasta and I'm out.
Pasta is literally the worst thing you can possibly eat.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
You're eating a bowl of pasta at like midnight or like.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
Four in the morning, Like I've worked all night. I
gotta go to bed because we have a show or whatever.
It is eleven to twelve in the morning. Just gotta
eat bulla. Pasta puts me. I know again, I'm not
doing it now now that like we're late in the season,
I can sleep. But yeah, when I'm stressed out, I
can't sleep. I mean again, that's part of the gambling life.
Like I can't stop looking at the numbers. I think
what I'm missing. So yeah, now it's all good.

Speaker 2 (03:14):
Dude.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
I haven't eaten a bowla pasta period, let alone pasta
at four in the morning. Wow, that's crazy.

Speaker 3 (03:23):
I mean, I'm in an unfair spot. I have a
guy who makes it by hand a block away from
me and had a field like this amazing Italian restaurant
and it's like, it's the best pasta and sauce you
can possibly have.

Speaker 4 (03:34):
I'm with you. I was on a late night pasta
guy either until I met this man. I'm just addicted
to it.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
I'd like to meet him, see what he can do.
If he can turn me into a late night pasta day.
All right, listen, it's been about forty hours since our
worst week of the season. Talk about stress. It took
me until yesterday afternoon to really feel like, Okay, I
can start looking at these numbers again. Unfortunately, a lot
of these numbers were already moving from what we talked
about on Sunday night in the direction we thought we

(03:59):
would they would go. Reminder, we went one and four
last week in our five favorite picks. We won with
the Atlanta Falcons, we lost with the Chargers, Texans, Lions,
and Chiefs. Four favorites did us in. Clearly we over corrected.

(04:23):
What's making me feel worse a lot of favorites that
I like this week. For the year, we are twenty
five and twenty through nine weeks with our five favorite picks.
This is our Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate.
It is our first Tuesday Show of November.

Speaker 4 (04:47):
No them but can be cold and gray.

Speaker 5 (04:50):
No them that can be surly, With bitter rain upon
the world and winter coming early. Do you fear the
force of the wind, the slash of the rain. Go
face them and fight them. Be savage again. The palms
of your hands will thicken, the skin of your cheek

(05:12):
will can You'll grow ragged and weary and wet.

Speaker 4 (05:17):
But you must do the best you can.

Speaker 2 (05:25):
Make sure you check out the Sunday Am show if
you want.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
The games that will be our official five after we've
had a chance to review the latest line moves injuries
this week. That will also include any impact from trades.
Don't forget. You can get the shows at Sharper Square
on YouTube. Go subscribe and like the video while you're
at it. You can also subscribe to Sharper Square on Apples, Spotify,
wherever you get your pause. All right, got a Thursday

(05:48):
night game and I think you and I both have
a strong opinion on this Las Vegas at Denver the
Denver Broncos currently eight and a half. The first note
I made on this game, no hesitation, Give me the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
What say you?

Speaker 3 (06:08):
Shaker Chad Simon says, give me the Broncos minus eight
and a half.

Speaker 1 (06:12):
I am Simon says, Broncos minus eight and a half
presented by hard Rock Bett.

Speaker 4 (06:19):
I want to play a game.

Speaker 2 (06:20):
Simon says.

Speaker 1 (06:22):
It is a little shocking. I don't know we've ever
had a Thursday.

Speaker 3 (06:25):
Simon says, I've done them, but it's shocking I would
take this big of a favorite, honestly divisional game when
we just talked about how we need to get back
to our dog ways. It's it's really about the number
on the spot, and I'm excited to dive more into
this game as a week as long. Here see where
this number does go. Like this Raiders team could be
sellers right right now, and that's why I want to

(06:47):
get this number out early. People to grab this number
early because it might just be the Rock Bauer Show.

Speaker 4 (06:53):
Right.

Speaker 3 (06:53):
They're already traded Jacobe Myers this morning for a pick,
you know, to the Jaguars. There they're sellers and they
should be right. I talked to people all the time
within that organization that game last week, not that they
dictate it if they're going to retain Pete Carroll, but
it kind of did like Pete Carroll put his neck
out there, wanted to get Gino. He needed some wins here,

(07:16):
and it feels like they're a package dealer with If
they keep tanking to get a quarterback this year, they'll
send Pete and Geno packing.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
So I think that was a give it all game
last week that they blew.

Speaker 3 (07:27):
And we talk all the time situationally, there's certain opportunities
during the season.

Speaker 4 (07:31):
This feels like a rare opportunity.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
Do you have a Raiders team that played a really
hard fought game and went to overtime and used up
the full overtime clock, like they played a ton of football,
and now they're on a short week on Thursday night football.
It's pretty easy numbers to find teams in this exact spot.
Six and twenty five against the spread, so nineteen percent.

(07:56):
All right, let's check out what's it like for that
team on the road even worse three and sixteen against
the spreads exact spot, So you.

Speaker 4 (08:05):
Know, could this be an allier? Could this Raiders team
pull off the upset? Sure?

Speaker 3 (08:08):
But this is the type of game where the Raiders team,
like last I thought we had a good spot that
was to me a good bet that we got unfortunately
got got by the backup quarterback here.

Speaker 4 (08:19):
This is exact game that Bonnicks just blows out teams like.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
It's a bad Raiders defense that's really bad against quarterbacks.

Speaker 4 (08:25):
Gonna run the football, yeah, on the flip side.

Speaker 3 (08:28):
Defensively, I love this matchup for this Denver team, and
it get right spot against a quarterback I still don't trust.
Even going back and rewatching that Raiders game, it just
felt like the Brock Bowers game, like he had just
had defenders bouncing off on him making plays.

Speaker 4 (08:41):
Nothing Gino did in that game give me more confidence.

Speaker 3 (08:43):
He's still thrown off his back foot, still happy feet,
still lock it in on his number one read, and
that's the only read he's gonna throw it to him.
Lucky for him, it's Brock Powers, who obviously is a
game changer. So yeah, this number, I thought it'd be
getting to ten. It's called the other way. It's gone
from nine and a half down to eight and a
half right now. So pros are coming in on this
Raiders team, but I'm gonna go against him.

Speaker 4 (09:04):
I think they're overreading on a short week.

Speaker 3 (09:06):
I like the spot a lot for this Broncos team
and a team that typically bo Nicks, he dominates in
these exact spots.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
O Simon, this might have been. There's probably three games
that I feel great about right now. It'll it'll change
over the course of the week.

Speaker 2 (09:24):
This was one of them.

Speaker 1 (09:26):
Everything about this to me screamed, get right spot for
the Broncos. A much better defense, a Raiders defense that
gives up a seventy completion rate in the secondary. He saw,
We saw how Trevor Lawrence did it against them, kept
them going down the field. That second half was just
a track meet. This is a much much better defense.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
Don't forget it.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
In that Jacksonville game, Trayvon Walker left the game because
he tried to close fist, closed fist punch a guy
in the face. He was a jack That was a
significant difference in the game. Like you could see, they
stopped getting any pass rush on Gino once he went
out of the game. That's not going to be a
problem for the Broncos. And they are just too good

(10:12):
defensively and too well coached offensively. Even bo Nicks can't
get in the way of this Thursday night a home
favorites of more than nine sixty one percent against the spread.
Thank you Killer Sports. I thought you would like that
one because I know you like the trends, but I
like it too. In this case, I think we're going

(10:32):
to end up having Denver in our final five and
as a contest play, and it's going to be a Thursday,
a rare Thursday play for us.

Speaker 4 (10:41):
That'll be interesting. I definitely have a conversation on.

Speaker 1 (10:43):
Thursday, Atlanta versus Indy. This one's in Berlin, nine thirty am.
Eastern Indie's a five point favorite. Someone was impressed with
the Falcons because this one after their loss to the Patriots,
and after the Colts lost to the Steelers, this moved
from six and a half to five and a half
down to five at hard Rock five and a half.

(11:04):
In a lot of other places Listen, Colts were undone Sunday.
A lot of turnovers specifically by the steel forced by
the Steelers best playmakers of the best times, pressure from
Alex Heismith, pressure from TJ.

Speaker 2 (11:21):
Watt. The Colts gave up five sacks and the Falcons, like.

Speaker 1 (11:28):
One in ten one of ten of third downs, played
opportunistically but not well. They did exactly what they needed
to do when they got the turnovers from Drake May
fumbles interceptions. On Sunday we talked about the wise guys,
I mean the Falcons and the wise guys have moved
it in that direction.

Speaker 2 (11:49):
I think I like the Falcons here.

Speaker 4 (11:53):
I don't know. I'm worried about it moved too much.
I like the Falcons. We talked about it six and
a half Sunday night. That's where I wanted to be.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
You just I mean, you nailed it. They were one
and ten on third down. I don't trust benex Man.
I just cannot trust this kid. It's so inconsistent, it's
so up and down. And we joked we really did
steal that one. Like that's why we always say you
just trust the number. You bet that when you bet
those games. And I had no idea how Lana was
gonna get there. I neither would find a way here.

(12:21):
The way the number has been moving, it's like, are
they going to find a way? Has the number moved
too much? Against the Colts team that we talked about,
like when it's going they're an absolute juggernaut offensively. It
took five insane turnovers by Daniel Jones for them to
lose by seven last week, Like can't be understated enough,
how good that offense is in a game like that,

(12:42):
they can still put up twenty points, So I know
it's tough. I want to be on the Falcons. There's
still one plus six out there if you're able to
If I have to make a pick right now, yeah,
I'll go that side.

Speaker 4 (12:55):
But this gets below four.

Speaker 3 (12:57):
If this gets to four and a half, four, I
might have to take a position on the Colts. It's
just International games always is going to lean towards the favorites. Yeah,
and I get what the pros are doing here. Like
I said, that's such a key number of betting, the
six down. But hard Rock they're showing us they've already
been hit by the pros. They're their first book I've
seen get the five. So yeah, it's it's slowly becoming

(13:18):
a cold sliine. I'm not gonna touch it yet until
it cross. Is another key number. If you obviously listened
to Shirt Sunday Night, or you can get it right now,
get the six of you say able to Atlanta that
at that number feels right?

Speaker 4 (13:30):
But man, we joke.

Speaker 3 (13:32):
I went back and watched that Atlanta game again because
it's just like, how did we get away with that?
One that was like you, I saw that, said, I
didn't realize they were only one for ten and third downs.

Speaker 2 (13:41):
Yeah, got away with it because of Drake London. That
was it. Just Drake London.

Speaker 4 (13:45):
Drake London. Yeah, that was it.

Speaker 1 (13:47):
But it's also why we bet it, Like knowing he
was going to be back is the reason why we
wanted to bet that game. He's the best asset that
Michael Pennix has. I'm with you, like, I don't want
to other than Caleb Williams rust to judgment on any
quarterbacks in their second year. And I always loved Michael
Pennox going back to his EU days, but he's way

(14:09):
inconsistent and making bad decisions.

Speaker 4 (14:11):
He's a rookie saying he's a rookie. Yeah, so second year.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
Rookie kind of barely played last year.

Speaker 1 (14:17):
So right, uh, all right, we'll put a pin in
that one because five is kind of a dead number.

Speaker 2 (14:23):
I don't I don't like. That's why I was wishy washing.
I couldn't really get a read at that number because.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
That much like the pros hit it that hard in
a national game.

Speaker 3 (14:34):
So, like you said, it's it's very clear what position
the professionals.

Speaker 2 (14:37):
Are on hard rock, a sneaky sharp book.

Speaker 4 (14:41):
Yeah, they're always ahead of the line. Movement's pretty well.

Speaker 2 (14:44):
It's pretty interesting. Good indicator.

Speaker 5 (14:46):
Super Bowl greens that glowed in the summer sunshine, flicker
and fade, and the autumn shadows and hopes that were
high in the heat of September and will and die
in the chill of November.

Speaker 1 (15:02):
Buffalo at Miami, Miami is a nine and a half
point dog at home.

Speaker 2 (15:07):
I don't know, Like.

Speaker 1 (15:10):
I know it's it's you gotta play Miami, especially coming
off of that game. But in my head it's Buffalo
or nothing like like like.

Speaker 4 (15:21):
We'll throw I know it's not that down.

Speaker 3 (15:23):
Then if you're gonna do something like that, get them
to two and a half, like take him in a
seven point teaser or something.

Speaker 1 (15:27):
But here's the flip side. Hold on, let me interrupt
you for one second, cause here's the flip side. We
got so burned by my favorites last week, it almost
makes sense that we would have to lean into Miami here.

Speaker 3 (15:45):
Well, it's just it's also a little bit of an
inflated line. In my opinion, it's like the Bills minus
nine and a half. They can't stop the run. They're
going against it one of the best run blocking scheme
teams in all of football.

Speaker 4 (15:55):
And I don't know. It's like, like I was talking
to the guy the other day.

Speaker 3 (16:01):
My dream scenario again these trades never happened, would be
for a guy like a Chan to go to the Chiefs,
like they had a Jamal Charles type in the Chiefs
offense in a lifetime.

Speaker 4 (16:11):
That's like the perfect matchup.

Speaker 3 (16:12):
But I talk to people on AAM and they're like, yeah,
we're looking for a first and a second.

Speaker 4 (16:16):
It's like, no one's gonna trade you that for this guy.

Speaker 3 (16:18):
It's so they highly value Chan and this feels like
an eight Chan game. And you know the Bills the
last time they played them, that was when it was
all going really negative for that Miami team and Miami.

Speaker 4 (16:34):
Back door covered it whatever it was.

Speaker 3 (16:36):
But just looking at this line, you're right, like, we
know we're supposed to bet Miami. I don't know if
I'm gonna force it in to be one of my
favorite bets, but it's like a nine and a.

Speaker 4 (16:45):
Half some books touch ten.

Speaker 3 (16:47):
I'll take Miami, but god, it's I just it's hard
to trust Miami. They're just so dysfunctional right now, it's
all crashing down. So it was like last week against
the Ravens. They had all these opportunities. They out played
the Ravens in the first half, and they just kept
shoot themselves in the foot self inflicted wounds, and then
the second half they just couldn't do a single thing.
So I'm going to be it's hard to trust this
Miami team, but I gotta expect I'll extended rest playing

(17:12):
against the Bills team come off a high emotional win
this past Sunday, now going on the road to play
Miami here just you know, a point or two inflated line.
Once again, not going to force it in, but I
do have a model at seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (17:24):
So I think what's interesting here that we got to
be cognizant of for today at least, is who's going
to be a seller.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
We just talked about it with the Raiders.

Speaker 1 (17:34):
We saw the Miami has already traded Jalen Phillips to
the Eagles, so who else are they going to get
rid of? But by the end of the day, will
Jalen Waddle be on the Miami Dolphins? And if so,
with that impact our thinking about betting the Dolphins as
huge underdogs.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
I think you're right.

Speaker 1 (17:53):
The Dolphins are the right side here, they're the play.
But I kind of want to wait until I know
a little bit more about who's going to be playing.

Speaker 4 (18:00):
And we don't really want to do it again.

Speaker 3 (18:02):
There's tens out there people, you can grab the tens
if you want, But it's like, I don't want to.

Speaker 2 (18:07):
Bet the Dolphins. Yeah, you know who else?

Speaker 1 (18:10):
I don't want to bet the Chicago Bears a minus
three and a half against the New York Football Giants.

Speaker 2 (18:17):
Oh my god, I love Ben Johnson.

Speaker 4 (18:20):
I love him.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Bet your bottom dollar you lose the Blues and Chicago chicag.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
The other day in the Chicago text chain that there
was a great sort of meme that I got sent.
It said, at the top is it's so over the
bottom that to the right is we're so back. To
the bottom is it's over, And to the left is
we're back. Like that's the life cycle of a Bears

(18:49):
fan and we lived it all on Sunday. Ben Johnson,
to me is the saving grace. Every time I watch
a Ben Johnson video postgame celebration, thrilled, he'll drop in.
He just drops in we got some stuff to work on.

Speaker 2 (19:05):
We're going to talk about that tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (19:07):
Today we are going to celebrate our win because it's
hard to win in the National Football League, and this
team believes in him. Whether or not Caleb can do it,
get us to the super Bowl, by the way, Simon,
because that's how I think about it doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (19:29):
I love Ben Johnson. Here's my problem. Let me take
you through this game.

Speaker 1 (19:34):
This defense is so bad, like if not for the
Bengals defense being so bad, the Bears do not win
that game. And this is the kind of defense that
Jackson Dart can get healthy against. Right, he can scamper
all over this defense. The secondary gives up a seventy
or the team gives up a seventy one percent completion rate,

(19:56):
tie with the Raiders for the worst in the league.
They're especially bad at under erneath passes, Like if you
look back at the Bear schedule, they've basically spent most
of the year making mediocre quarterbacks look really really good
and they're only wins by margin this year are the

(20:16):
Cowboys big blowout. A lot of turnovers from the Cowboys
and the Saints, which if the Saints weren't turning the
ball over that game is much much closer. So I'm
kind of leading Giants in three and a half.

Speaker 3 (20:28):
Here, Yeah, And that's that's why they're goin to just
make it funny little bit for the Super Bowl talk,
because it's like, you guys only beat horrible, terrible teams, right,
and that's reflected this year. And that's why you should
be excited about your head coach because that's your coach
beating the difference because bad teams don't beat bad teams, right, Like,
at least you're above bad teams at this point where

(20:50):
you're not dropping games you should be winning. So the
Giants to me are a bad team and they're one
of the worst run defenses in all football. This is
the exact type of team you want to face if
you or the Bears. But you're right, the line makes
me want to take the Giants. You don't have the
defense to be catching three and a half, so it's
another game you can easily get burned, like just like

(21:11):
the Dolphins. But it feels like got to get back
to old ways. Supposed to bet the Bears here, I
mean at the Giants now with the hook if it
was minus three, minus two and a half. I could
have talked us into taking this Bear side just because
I think they'll be able to move the ball anytime
they won against the Giants. But like you said, Dart's
gonna have a ton of opportunities to push the ball

(21:31):
downfield and use his legs against this really suspect Bears team.
That didn't you guys just lose another when you're another
pass rusher.

Speaker 4 (21:39):
Yeah, so it's just bad. You guys are just having
bad luck.

Speaker 3 (21:43):
You're already a bad defense and you've been hit by
a brutal injury bug. So yeah, it's anytime your defense
gives a forty two points to Joe Flacco. I know
it's lazy talk to say, yeah, there are a bad defense.
We gotta fade them here with Dart, But it's just
to be just to bring it back to the number.
That's what we're trying to say here. It's that's that's
the point.

Speaker 4 (22:02):
Sing.

Speaker 3 (22:02):
Your defense is so bad, I don't know if you
can carry a minus three and a half favorite right now.
So yeah, plus three and a half. I guess I
got to do the Giants, but I don't feel great
about it. They just no scataboo all the injuries. It
just it's really catch it up to that offense in
the last two weeks, they've just not looked the same now.

Speaker 1 (22:18):
But look, to me, there's a similarity here to the
Commanders and.

Speaker 2 (22:24):
How they played.

Speaker 1 (22:26):
The Bears and their ability to use Jayden Daniels and
have them split the defense and run up the middle
sort of these these design draws and also if the
pass rush gets too far upfield, he finds a hole
through the middle. Like that's what Jackson Dart is really
good at and he's been really.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
Really accurate this year.

Speaker 1 (22:44):
So I think there's so much room underneath for the
Giants to find receivers that they basically just have possession receivers.

Speaker 2 (22:53):
You know. So I worry.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
I worry, and that's why I want to be on
the Giants. New Orleans at the Carolina Panthers, Panthers and
minus five. You mentioned the Panthers on Sunday en it
as a game you liked. We've all thankfully moved on
from the Saints are competitive phase of the season we've entered.

(23:16):
We love the Panthers phase of the season. We know
the Panthers are going to want to run the ball
with Rico Daudell. It's how they have won big games
on the road this year, and we know they are
better at home. Saints d bottom five in the league

(23:38):
is a rush defense, like across every metric, right, so
there is a clear advantage. I will say this number
is flirting with a Saints line. I'm not saying it is,
but I do think it's flirting with it A five
and a half. It definitely was, which is why it's
moved to five. That's what it was on Sunday five
and a half. But that's the one thing that me

(24:00):
nervous is that we so love the Saints and we've
been getting burned by favorites this past week. Are we
clouded right now?

Speaker 2 (24:09):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (24:09):
And it's a Carolina team that we already love, coming
off the biggest win they've had as a franchise and
since Cam Newton, is that fair to say, like this
is this win put them to five wins, five and
four in the NFC outside chance in a wildcard. They're
like the Bears, Like it's just two teams that need
desperately to win these games. And anytime you can steal

(24:32):
a game like that is Caroline. Like we said, Bryce
Seong through for one hundred yards. I don't know if
we're buying them at their peak. Like I think that
they were a good team that stole that game last week.
Like I saw some crazy stats I didn't even realize.
I wish I had mentioned on Sunday. They did not
punt Green Bay in that game. They didn't punt the
entire game. That's so crazy. When you go back and

(24:53):
rewatch it, it's like they had their opportunities. Carolina is just
a good team and they're well coached. Shockingly so, Tyler
Shuck is terrible. Like I watched a lot of that
Rams game. There's no way he gives him a better
chance than Spencer Rattler. And you know that's just a
draft pick you make because he never played really in college,

(25:15):
and when he did play, you saw a lot of big,
big time ARNT talent. But I think he's like an
old man at this point. He's already like twenty five
or twenty six, which is old in football years, and he's.

Speaker 4 (25:24):
Got happy feet.

Speaker 3 (25:26):
I just really, I just like you, I wanted to
avoid this game because it's like I am I overvaluing this.
My model has it at seven, so at least I'm
getting a good number must when my computer thinks when
I'm like, like you, the alarm bells are ringing here,
Am I overvaluing this team? But I like this match
for the Panthers, and I just don't see how New
Orleans Saints' offense can keep up with this Panthers team

(25:49):
where this is a get right game for them, because
like you said, the Saints struggle against the run. That
just sets up Bryce Young to push the ball downfield
once those safeties drop in. That's what he's been so
great at this year is finally there's open windows downfield.
I like dismetch a lot for the Panthers. So interesting
line movement a couple of books. Yeah, popped minus four
and a half on the Panthers. So like Chad's saying,

(26:12):
professionals are coming on the Saints, not gonna rush in
that take on minus five.

Speaker 4 (26:16):
It's not that big of a key number. So if
moves the four and a half, I'll grab it.

Speaker 3 (26:19):
If it goes back up to five and a half
in its trending towards six, I'll come in and grab
the five and a half. So yeah, no bet for
me yet on this game. Just watching the line movement,
see where it goes.

Speaker 1 (26:27):
Bryce Young consistently is becoming one of those players who
you love to have when the Panthers are an underdog.
He's a gamer, and like his athleticism is showing shining through.
We start to see it last year, it's carried over
into this year. He keeps his head up when he's
running around the pocket, he's looking down field. He's making

(26:49):
accurate throws like when he is scrambling and challenged and
has to be getting the ball downfield. That's when he's
at his best. You saw him in the final drive, right,
He made some great passes one hundred yards, but I
think he had like twenty of them in that final
drive because he just he's becoming a gamer. He's becoming

(27:09):
a quarterback you can lean into win they're underdogs.

Speaker 4 (27:14):
Well, he just he didn't have it, honestly, Like he
threw a terrible back of the end.

Speaker 2 (27:17):
Zone pick that could have killed the game for them.

Speaker 4 (27:20):
It should have. Like I said, I can't believe we
stole that game.

Speaker 3 (27:22):
He was eleven of twenty four one hundred yards and
a pick in the red zone. And that's just how
dominant Rikodato on this running attack is right now. So
that's what I really feel like both of us, we
think he'll bounce back here with Bryce Young in this game.
But it's just that running attack I feel will always
keep us above Border Carolina this year. And like we
keep saying, they're a sneaky seventh seed if they can
get there, they have the offense. We just I think

(27:45):
we both agree they do not have the defense right
now to be a playoff team.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Is Tyler Schuck one season away from eating pasta alone
in his house at four am?

Speaker 2 (27:57):
Just stress eating fuy enough?

Speaker 4 (28:00):
I mean some people have called that living the dream.

Speaker 1 (28:02):
You call your nightmare, dude, that the only thing I'm
doing at four AMSPN.

Speaker 2 (28:07):
That's it.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
Cleveland at the New York Jets, The New York Jets,
this lumbers move from one and a half to Simon, Hello,
they're coming off a bye.

Speaker 2 (28:17):
Are the New York Jets a juggernaut?

Speaker 1 (28:19):
And look if if it's a big if they can
be halfway competent. I like the Jets here because I
do think the Cleveland Browns offensively, they just cannot do anything.
They do not have a professional quarterback in the room

(28:40):
right now.

Speaker 2 (28:41):
If they did, they would be playing him. So to me,
this is really about the Jets. You had a lot
of thoughts on this.

Speaker 1 (28:49):
We talked about this before we came on the air
for a minute about this number, So share what you're thinking.

Speaker 4 (28:56):
I know, I hate it. I love it. People.

Speaker 3 (28:58):
This is almost why Simon says about like said, hard
Rocks already moved.

Speaker 4 (29:01):
There's a couple of one and a half's out there.

Speaker 3 (29:03):
On the Jets you can still get. We'll chuck real quick,
but yeah, there's still they're still out there at two
of the really big public books, so you can still
get the one and a half if you can find it.
But this is an It's another game where it was
just like our stupid rationale are taking them with Cincy.
There's they're gonna steal games, They're gonna win games. This

(29:23):
Jets team, They's just it's just the way football is.
And you look at this matchup, like we talked about,
I agree, it's terrifying to think of that front of
this Bengals team playing against this Jets team.

Speaker 4 (29:37):
But my hope, which.

Speaker 3 (29:39):
Again I've been suckering into it before, is that justin
fields and this offense found something against the Bengals to
take into that bye week and use it in this
type of matchup, Like you have a quarterback that can
use his legs against Miles Garrett. That's the only cryptonite
Miles Garrett has. If you just run away from him
and he can't catch you, that's the only way you
could stop. And there's no one on their team that
can block Miles Garrett. There's nothing they can do blocking wise,

(30:02):
but scheme wise, you can use your quarterback an outside
the pocket and run away from them with the running
back that I like the way this Jets team can
attack this Browns offense. And we always talk about this
Browns team is different away from home. Off the grass,
like we always say, it's a fast field. People forget medlife.
I mean they don't forget we all know because it
takes people's achilles and knees every week. It's a turf field,

(30:23):
so it's a fast field, which again benefits this Jets
team in a matchup where I just can't get over
this kid Gabriel, Like, I am shocked they didn't announce
Sanders was gonna be the start of this week. So
everything is just so negative behind that Browns team behind
closed doors, and I mean I know they're coming off
a bye week as well.

Speaker 4 (30:44):
I just can't. I can't see it with this kid, Gabriel.
I know you're in the same boat as me.

Speaker 3 (30:47):
Like I've watched so much of him play now I
forever feel so lucky. We did take that Miami spot
where that Cleveland team was obviously the right choice there,
and he threw the ball five times like that's how
they have to win. So could they get it this
against this Jets team? Of course, we know the Jets.
They're and also a team like our sellers. They couldn't
move Breest Hall, which would be a big deal, right,

(31:08):
He's been are going to be their best offensive piece
this season run the ball. So I'm not diving all
in on Jets here yet, but I do want people
to grab the one and a half if possible, because
I think that's the Pros are gonna keep coming in.
I could easily see this again to two and a
half three by kickoff, and if you don't take a
position at that point. If it's three, sure you could
take the Browns. But it mist one one, it's one

(31:28):
and a half.

Speaker 4 (31:29):
This is the Jets number. I'd grab it before it moved.

Speaker 1 (31:31):
The other thing I would add one of the reasons
why we liked New England against the Browns a few
weeks ago, other than the fact it was a Browns
defense on the road, the brown secondary is susceptible to
big plays. And the one thing that the Jets have
been able to do this year occasionally, and Justin Fields
showed a little bit of this the other last week

(31:53):
or two weeks ago, is throwing the ball deep.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
And any kind of explosive play.

Speaker 1 (31:59):
So to me, there is one little offensive advantage, a creak,
sneak offensive advantage for the Jets in this game. We
talked about it more than I thought we would, like
I thought I was gonna want to be on the
Jets and you're gonna be like, come on, like, let's
not be silly here.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
But so I'm glad an agreement on that.

Speaker 1 (32:21):
The one thing that does scare me is I don't
know who's like, who are they gonna get rid of,
you know, by the end of today.

Speaker 4 (32:28):
I just don't know.

Speaker 1 (32:29):
Jacksonville is Houston. Houston is a one point favorite. The
number is moved in favor of Jacksonville. I'm not surprised.
I was actually surprised that the number was at one
and a half on Sunday night and by yesterday night.
By last night, it's still had it moved to one.
It finally moved to one this morning, at least.

Speaker 2 (32:49):
At hard Rock. Like c. J.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
Stroud is in the concussion protocol, the Jags D is
not the Broncos D that Houston just played it yet and.

Speaker 2 (33:00):
The Texans deep, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (33:02):
It may literally make Trevor Lawrence's head spin. It might
be more than he can handle. So it's tough to
bet on the team that is playing with its backup
quarterback as a favorite. If I could get Houston as
an underdog at some point, I'd be more interested.

Speaker 3 (33:21):
Yeah, I hate I hate it because it's we know
we're supposed to bet Houston. I think we're both just
so burned by watching three quarters of Davis Mills just
do nothing.

Speaker 1 (33:31):
But that Roncos defense is so good like the Jags defense.
I know, they just made Geno Smith look like a hero.
He scored twenty nine points against them, like they scored
god knows how many points in the second half. So
it's not the same defense, and he's got a week
to figure it out. He's not coming in cold at

(33:54):
the end of the second in the middle of the
second quarter.

Speaker 3 (33:56):
And that's the biggest deal is he hasn't prepared or
practice with the ones you know all year. Definitely wasn't
probably diving in until midnight every night, preparing in the
playbook in case he started this past week, which again
this is he knows the deal, like this is.

Speaker 4 (34:12):
For his future, his livelihood. This is his super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (34:14):
And we always talk about we like backing the backups
in their first start, usually not the second start, usually
the first start. And you're right, I probably just need
to swallow and take this Houston team. But like you,
I'll just be patient, see what the public and professionals do.
If CJ is not cleared, maybe we do get a
plus two and a half plus three bump and then

(34:36):
we're in a really good spot. Right we have this
Houston defense as a dog at home against Trevor Lawrence
is a road favorite once again, and try to warn
you last week about it, you don't. I just something
about Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite will
always scare me because he's always gonna keep the other
team in it. I feel like it's the same thing
here and you're we're both talking about a lob where
it's like it's another bet on Houston's defense like we

(34:57):
have been doing these basketball weeks.

Speaker 4 (34:58):
It's just such a a great unit, especially turn the
teams over. So be patient. Let's see if we get
a plus number here on this Texans team.

Speaker 1 (35:09):
We have so much agreement this week after last week.
I think that actually bodes well. I think last week
one of our problems might have been we couldn't find agreement.
And it turns out like all the games you liked
were the right side, all the games I liked were
the right side, and the games that we could agree
on were the wrong side. So I think this is
trending well for US. New England and Tampa Bay. Simon

(35:30):
and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites.
Hit It, Hit It, Hit It one hundred percent Change
Choice presented by hard Rock Bet are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Speaker 4 (35:44):
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
willing to make a choice? My choice? We can't run
from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it,
you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (35:58):
Buccaneers minus two and a half against the high flying
Drake May mvping New England Patriots, and you dropped a
little bit of a hint about this on Sunday night.
I'm actually surprised it hasn't moved to three yet. And
that's an indication to me of the respect that everybody
is giving Drake May and Mike vrabel. I kind of

(36:21):
feel like, because Baker in the box got beat up
so bad by the Lions and then went under the
bye week, they've forgotten the Baker mayfield was Drake May
before Drake May was Drake May in the MVP race,
meaning the surprise MVP that everybody is talking about who's cooking,
no matter where he's playing, no matter who's on the field.
The Pats have won six in a row since starting

(36:42):
one and two. The last four Simon have included blot
wins over the Saints, the Browns, the Titans, and then
a nail bier against the only you could say competitive
team they played in, the Falcons. The Bucks are in
every way in this game, a step up in class

(37:06):
for the New England Patriots and the Patriots on the road.
They've now after playing hurt for a few months, they're
getting guys back. Luke Getticky his practice window has opened
after being on injured reserve. There's a chance he could
play this week. Baker's had a couple of weeks to
heal a lot of his injuries and ailments. A confident

(37:29):
Baker at home as a short road favorite against an
up and coming team. I think the coaching matchup is good,
Like Mike Rabel isn't gonna out coach Todd Bowles give
me the box.

Speaker 4 (37:46):
Yeah, it's crazy where.

Speaker 3 (37:48):
I love this one too, And it feels like I
give up five games I really liked on Sunday night
and they all moved in great directions for me. Looks
like I made a couple of great bets except this one.
This is not and of all of them, this felt
like one of the easier picks.

Speaker 4 (38:03):
Right.

Speaker 3 (38:03):
We're happy to be selling on the Patriots, like you said,
on the road here in a really tough matchup for them,
playing against the team that and every metric is just better.
Like flat out, we talk about a veteran team, a
complete team that is going to be contending for Super Bowls.
You think of this Bucks team when you think of
an overachieving, overachieving team that's fighting way above their weight, Right,

(38:25):
now it's got to be the Patriots, like everything is
going their way. And you know, that's why I understand
why Pitchers fans are so excited the Drake May stuff.
It's crazy. I really can't go over even going back
and watching that game. He's making really stupid mistakes. Still
did enough to win that game after making really bad mistakes,
which again, that's all you're looking for.

Speaker 4 (38:45):
If you're a Patriots fan.

Speaker 3 (38:46):
You're lying to yourself if you think you're gonna have
playoff success this year. But there's a little things you
can see where it's like Drake May might be a guy,
which is all you want to see at the end
of the day.

Speaker 4 (38:55):
So this type of.

Speaker 3 (38:56):
Game, he goes in there and wins this, I'm happy
to eat it. Talk to a couple pros hit me
up yesterday after he listen to our show, and they
like the patriotsier and they think we're overrating a bucks
team that you know, they did get embarrassed by Detroit,
but like you said, they bounced back the following week.
Their defense really destroyed the Saints. Maybe something is wrong

(39:19):
with Baker and they got an info and I'm missing
on it, and that he is hurt, and even after
the Bible, he's still not right because he just hasn't
looked right in their previous two games. So this feels
like a guy right spot for Baker. Christigan Zalez didn't
land right. He's banged up for this Patriots team after
a really tough game against Drake London last week. So
I don't know, Chad, why is this not gone to three?

(39:40):
I do not get why this one has not moved.
So I'm with you, I'll grab it now. If it
moves lower, I'm gonna be a sucker. I'll by buy
some more Bucks line here. But anything under three, I
feel like is a great Bucks line. They just feel
like not only are their field goal better, I feel
like they're even better than that.

Speaker 4 (39:54):
Like they feel like if they got healthy guys are back.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
This week for them, specially that offensive line, I could
see them steamroll this Patriots defense.

Speaker 4 (40:02):
So really interesting. The books have held this at two
and a half.

Speaker 1 (40:05):
We have breaking news Simon. As we are discussing, Adam
Schefter is reporting that the Indianapolis Colts have traded two
first round picks, two the New York Jets four.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
Sauce Gardener.

Speaker 4 (40:26):
Mm hmm.

Speaker 1 (40:29):
Sauce Gardner's sort of been struggling mightily with Aaron Glenn
this year.

Speaker 2 (40:35):
So this is a guy who the Jets.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
Have gotten rid of their number one and number two
corner in the last two weeks because they traded uh
Carter to the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (40:43):
I think, yeah, So.

Speaker 1 (40:46):
To me, is this just a breakup of a bad
match between coach and player? Is it a player who
after two stellar seasons has hit his ceiling and is
falling off? Was it an attitude thing? I don't know
the answers to any of these.

Speaker 3 (41:02):
They gave him one hundred twenty million.

Speaker 1 (41:05):
They just gave him a ridiculous amount of money. And
now he's going to the Colts, who have had some
issues on the edges.

Speaker 2 (41:13):
Defending against number.

Speaker 1 (41:15):
One receivers huge upgrade for the Colts and shows shows
that the Colts feel like they're going all in and
that they're in a really good spot right now. I
don't know that it makes a difference to me in
the number Like it's not like you know, Terry.

Speaker 3 (41:31):
Judy, But I don't know if Dylan Garb was gonna
take advantage of the Sauce Pardner, That's what I mean.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
Yeah, Also, the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seattle Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (41:47):
Interesting though I like the Colts when now I'm all
about it there, I agree with that with the Colts team,
like they're again idiots like me, and we're never going
to believe them. I'm always gonna take my homes or
Josh Allen over them in the playoffs. But there's a
path you just got to make it with that type
of offense that Daniel Jones is clicking right, So their

(42:08):
biggest weakness by far was that secondary cornerback position.

Speaker 4 (42:11):
So that's awesome.

Speaker 3 (42:12):
They're making moves, but yeah, I don't know if either
of us are greed two first round picks for a
guy making that kind of money.

Speaker 4 (42:18):
That's heavy, that's questionable.

Speaker 1 (42:20):
That's an all in move. Yeah, all in Baltimore and Minnesota.
Minnesota is a three and a half point underdog. Numbers
moved up a little bit. Listen, I've been I've been
throughout this whole week. I've been trying to find underdogs
to fall in love with and not lead into the favorites.
After the blood bath last week, and I felt like

(42:40):
the Vikings could possibly be it, and I can't get there.
I just can't get there, Like I have to believe
the signs I've seen from the Broncos defense since they came.

Speaker 4 (42:52):
Out of the by Baltimore.

Speaker 1 (42:53):
I mean, I'm sorry Baltimore's defense since they came out
of the by plus Lamar Jackson being back is a
greater indicator of the direction of this team than what
we saw last week with JJ McCarthy, who had some
really nice throws and they got him out to the
edges where they can take advantage of his athleticism.

Speaker 2 (43:12):
But Lebar Jackson is not Jared Goff.

Speaker 1 (43:15):
What the Vikings did against Jared Goff to make him
ineffective in bringing the pressure is not going to be
as effective as on Labar Jackson. So I can't get
to the Vikings here, and I really want to.

Speaker 3 (43:27):
No, it feels like the books on the bad Line
we took Sunday. Opening this three minus one twenty on
the Ravens was egregious hard rock. I'm looking at a
live here in Jersey. They've just moved to minus four.
They were the last book hanging on the minus three
and a half. With this Ravens team, it's gone. Every
book now is minus four minus four and a half.
I think I'll keep growing. Like you said, maybe we'll

(43:50):
get there on Sunday with this Vikings team because it
will be probably the biggest need for all the sports books.
I'm somebody that I'm as well. I have just been
hammering this Raven's money line. I don't I don't get
the number. Raven Lamar just himself owns NFC teams, and
you look at this matchup. We talked a little bit
Sunday night. The worst run defense the Vikings. Yes, they

(44:11):
did look good against that Detroit team. Tons of credit
to Floores. Are they going to do it?

Speaker 4 (44:17):
Really?

Speaker 3 (44:17):
Two games in a row like this is you move
Lamar off his spot, He's gonna burn you for twenty
yards with his legs. Do they have the linebackers a
spy Lamar?

Speaker 4 (44:26):
Like? There's a lot of stuff I like here for this.

Speaker 3 (44:29):
Ravens team, between Derek Henry's running style and Lamar's running
style against the Vikings team that does struggle against the runs.
So really interesting number of the book opened it. Like
I said, it's up to minus four and a half.
Now in most books it's minus four. At hard Rock,
I still a little attempted to take the Ravens. But
if we can get to the number that should be

(44:50):
six six and a half, and this is the biggest
need of the sports book. No chance I let us
touch this one for contest or betting wise. But as
we said here right now, if you can get I
don't think he can. If you can get the minas
three and a half, I'd still take on the Ravens,
but I think you're the best You're gonna.

Speaker 4 (45:07):
Get now is the four and yeah only fource. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (45:10):
So I'm just I'm gonna wait and be patient this
one now and see what the professionals do with it.
But just a terrible opening line by the books, and
hopefully people listen Sunday night and took advantage of that
number because it was just egregious.

Speaker 1 (45:21):
You just mentioned the money line though, Minu money line
I think is minus two twenty five.

Speaker 2 (45:27):
So did I see that right? Did I? Did I
see the right?

Speaker 4 (45:30):
Now?

Speaker 3 (45:30):
Hard Rock is minus two ten red that's moving though,
Like sim I've hit that when it was minus one eighty,
minus one ninety, minus two hundred. If you can still
get the minus two ten, I would like Chad saying,
I think it's gonna settle minus two twenty five to thirty.

Speaker 4 (45:46):
So I again, I'm not here telling people to go
all in on this with the money line, but this.

Speaker 3 (45:52):
Is the exact type of games Lamar does win and cover.
He just beats up on defenses that can't stop the
running we talked about. This is a very desperate, desperate
Ravens team playing a Vikings team coming off a huge
win with a young quarterback, and howsie handled that success.

Speaker 4 (46:09):
I just I can't get over how bad of a
spot this is for this Vikings team.

Speaker 3 (46:12):
On the flip side, how great of a spot it
is for this Ravens team. So yeah, it's it's not
shocking to see this number getting pounded up to four
and a half right now.

Speaker 1 (46:21):
Lamar Jackson's been as good against the Blitz as any
quarterback in the NFL the last couple of years, not
counting this year obviously, I haven't played as much, but
last year especially outstanding, outstanding.

Speaker 3 (46:33):
I think he's like leading the league in QBR right
now too, Like he's just he's awesome.

Speaker 4 (46:38):
Yeah. The thing holding them back.

Speaker 3 (46:39):
This year has been their defense, and they look like
they figured stuff out like they did last year. Remember
that second half of last year, and it's all about
Coyle Hamilton making the adjustments with him him coming down
in the box, playing more free.

Speaker 4 (46:52):
You see, it just affects that defense in so many ways.
With him at ro Con.

Speaker 1 (46:54):
Smith Arizona at Seattle, Seattle's six and a half point
favorite at home, the line has dropped, and Sovan here's
the problem with this game.

Speaker 2 (47:03):
Seahawks are peak peak, peak, peak, peak peak value right now.

Speaker 1 (47:06):
Sam Darnold is everybody's favorite MVP candidate, even though he's
still twenty to one to win the MVP. He's behind
Josh Allen, He's behind Patrick Mahomes, he's behind Drake may Still,
who all have significantly shorter odds. And this defense has
been unstoppable, especially coming off rest week seeing what they
did to the Commanders. Cardinals have lost close games with

(47:31):
Kyler Murray. They finally won one with Jakobe Brissett in
an offense that basically with him has just looked much
much better than it is with Kyler. And this is
without its first and second string running backs. Jonathan Gannon
has said Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback, but could

(47:56):
they just sort of keep shadow benching Kyler Murray like
I would much rather bet on this game.

Speaker 2 (48:02):
If it was to Kobe Brissette than if it was
Kyler Murray.

Speaker 3 (48:05):
Totally agree. And I know it's been very lazy and
boring to people. I've just been pound the table all
year about it. Seahawks on the road has to become
an auto bet. They're just the defense travels. I said
the last week against the Commanders, I couldn't get over
how underrated the public keeps.

Speaker 4 (48:20):
Beat on the Seahawks defense traveling.

Speaker 3 (48:22):
And literally, I know Sam Donald was gonna be perfect
in that first half. You just didn't matter so much
about what the defense was gonna do. Sam darnalld a
night like that, you're not gonna beat them. So I
just I'm gonna keep doing it. I'm gonna keep fading
the Seahawks team when they're at home against good offenses,
because I just they like their defense plays differently at home.

(48:42):
I mean, just going back to the two losses this year.
Week one I talked about that was a fluke. I
liked the Seahawks. They lost seventeen to thirteen on a
last drive by Purty in a game which Sam Darner
just wasn't comfortable yet in that Seahawks offense. The other
loss against the Bucks, the defense gave up thirty eight
points at home against you know what, we respect to

(49:03):
be a really potent offense right now and that Bucks team.
But I feel the same about this Cardinals team when
it's Jacoby Brissett. So I'm like Chad, I bet into this.
I want to best up Penny more until I know
exactly who the starting quarterback is. I am not betting
Kyler Murray in his first start back after a big
injury on the road, even though I always say Kyler
is a dog, is a great bet. I just feel

(49:25):
like that's too much ask of the guy coming back
Rusty in this exact spot. It's it's too much, So
I'll be patient. I'm not going to force it in there.
But I man, I love this at plus six and
a half for the visit Jacoby Brissett just feels like
a game. They're gonna be competitive in it the whole time.
Like we always say, this division, it's one of the
best right now in football. The Seahawks, Rams and Foyn Andres,

(49:48):
they're they're the teams. But like I keep saying about Arizona,
they play teams close they played the Colts close, they
played Green Bay close. They play up to the competition level.
So I like this a lot if it's set, But yeah,
I think we're both in agreement.

Speaker 4 (50:02):
I'm not going to force in if it's Keller.

Speaker 1 (50:03):
Murray Detroit at Washington. The numbers eight and a half.
It was three on Sunday night when we talked.

Speaker 2 (50:10):
About like in Detroit.

Speaker 1 (50:12):
Basically, what we're being told is that Jaydon Daniels is
worth five and a half points. Do you think he's
worth five and a half points.

Speaker 3 (50:18):
This year with all the stuff that gets going on, Like, no,
Terry McLaurin, that feels fair because he's not been healthy
all year. He's been playing through injuries all season. And yeah,
no one wants to victory lap saying Washington was gonna
be bad this year in regress after a quarterback gets hurt.
But everything we worried about has come true for Washington.
And how do you now feel bad for their fan
base where it's like it's all there, right, your team

(50:41):
has invested to win. Now for this season, you're like
the oldest team of football. Every move you made it
looks like a dud, and it looks like it's gonna
be a two to three year rebuild.

Speaker 4 (50:49):
Now, Like when you're really looking at their team on paper.

Speaker 2 (50:52):
Well, their defense is just so bad, atrocious.

Speaker 3 (50:54):
And their coach, I said it last week, I think
he might be an idiot, like some of the stuff
he did with Mary, treating him as if he was
Jane Daniels. And now fast forward to this week, having
your star quarterback who's playing banged up, still in that
game that you have zero chances coming back, and then
getting hurt. I just I can't get over how bad
Dan Quinn might be as a quarter as a head coach.

Speaker 4 (51:14):
So I don't know.

Speaker 3 (51:16):
I know, we're probably supposed to take Washington here because
the Lions moved so much, but this feels like a game.

Speaker 4 (51:22):
Detroit is gonna win forty to nine.

Speaker 3 (51:24):
Just all their frustration from the week before, Campbell just
pours it on.

Speaker 4 (51:29):
I mean, is it. Did I see that right? The
levou is suspended the linebacker.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (51:35):
Yeah, So I think he guts spend it for hip
drop tackle. He keeps doing it, and they're like, dude, we're
already finding enough. Maybe it was a third or fourth offense.
He's their best, in my opinion, their best defender, Like
he is really really good linebacker, so you take him out.
Now you have a thirty seven year old linebacker trying

(51:55):
to cover the tight ends in the middle of the
field against this Lions team. Just disaster every way. So
I don't know if it's gone high enough. I saw
a couple of books hit nine and a half and
it's come back down to eight and a half.

Speaker 4 (52:06):
So there is professional money holding us back here. Maybe
I just am so bitter at Detroit because they burned
us so bad last week. But this is when we're
supposed to take Detroit.

Speaker 3 (52:16):
So I'm trying to try not to overreact because we
got so burned last week by these favorites that there
are some favorites we just might have to take here,
and the lines might be one of them. It's like, Okay,
Mariona might get his against the suspect Lions defense at
some point, but overall, I just see this Detroit offense
do whatever they want.

Speaker 4 (52:35):
This watch of the defense might be one of the
worst in the league.

Speaker 2 (52:38):
It's a tricky one because we're just scared off by
the big number.

Speaker 4 (52:41):
Again. We just got burned by the Science team.

Speaker 1 (52:43):
It's still just got burned by a lot of teams
on the big number. And and it's going back into
the well on the same exact theory that Detroit can't
be bad again.

Speaker 3 (52:54):
Right, That wasn't our theory last week. That was a
good matchup. I just again, We got golf, got.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
Got got yeah, exactly, Yeah.

Speaker 4 (53:02):
Patients, patience, composure.

Speaker 2 (53:04):
It's all right.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Before we move on, here's a quick word from our
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Speaker 2 (54:56):
All right, so another game.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
We were just talking about Seattle in Zona and how
good the NFC West is. The Rams going to San Francisco,
and look, I really want to love San Francisco. Here
the line is three and a half. I don't know
how they're going to play defense in this game. They
lost another edge defender in Michel Williams, their first round

(55:19):
draft pick. I know you love Mac and maybe he'll
be playing quarterback, but the Rams rush d is elite.
There is no hole in this defensive unit. They're like
top five across every advanced metric including fifth and EPA

(55:39):
per rush. So like the Niners are empty at D line,
they're empty at linebacker. It's a tricky one. The line
has moved from three to three and a half. I
know you want to play the Niners here, but.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
It's it's ugly.

Speaker 4 (56:06):
Yeah, it's it's definitely a word world war.

Speaker 5 (56:09):
Now.

Speaker 3 (56:09):
I'm a lover of Mac Jones, a guy who I
just notorilously shut him for years.

Speaker 1 (56:13):
And I and I'm all over the rams, Like when
I used to love betting Kyle Shannon as a home
dog in a in a game where they're they should
it doesn't.

Speaker 3 (56:22):
I mean, it feels like you're you're you're overthinking. It's like,
are are we supposed to take? Not think about this one?
Take fort n Ice right. Shockingly enough with Purdy, I
got if he was fully healthy. I have this line
that minus are plus two for the forty nine ers,
so they'd still be a dog. Mac Jones is one
point difference. Once again, That's why I keeps trying to
say the mac Jones thing. I think it's closer than

(56:45):
you realize. They're not that different playing in the Shanehanne system.
And last week, I mean mac Jones, I think he
was perfect. He was like fifteen to fifteen to start
the game, so we've seen it. He can push the
ball down feeling like you said, that's the nervous part
here is we're back in the fortn Iris team that
just has another thing left. Defensively, by far, the best
offense they've played since they've lost.

Speaker 4 (57:05):
Spread like that Atlanta totally knows, showed they haven't really
had a test.

Speaker 3 (57:09):
Right. It went Atlanta, Houston and the Giants. That's not
three juggernaut of offenses. So you're right for your skepticism.
I just this feels like the type of games of
the Rams just lay an egg on, especially the fact
that this is going to be one of the bigger
public sides of the week.

Speaker 4 (57:24):
People are quick to forget this Rams team lost to
this forty nine Ers team.

Speaker 3 (57:30):
On a short week at home as an eight point
favorite by three, So.

Speaker 4 (57:36):
It's a tough thing. Here is the line moved too much?

Speaker 3 (57:39):
Like the forty nine Ers have only gotten worse and
lost more players since then. The Rams have only looked
better and you know, played better since then.

Speaker 4 (57:47):
So I think the books are trying to tell us
something here, Chad.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
So, like I said something night, I would take the
Rams of minus three because I just saw it moving
this way. But I said, I feel like I'm gonna
have to end up on this forty other side. I'm
gonna have to be on the side. So I know
it's it's gross, but I gotta hold I gotta hold
it here and say we got to take forty nine
Ers plus three.

Speaker 2 (58:07):
And a half.

Speaker 1 (58:07):
What's so funny about this game is on Sunday night,
I was all over the Niners.

Speaker 4 (58:13):
Were you yeah?

Speaker 2 (58:15):
During the show.

Speaker 1 (58:16):
I like, as soon as I saw it, I'm like,
I feel like I got to take the Niners at.

Speaker 4 (58:20):
Three folks too, we know that much. You are supposed
to take the Niners.

Speaker 1 (58:23):
Year, And like all the work I did yesterday just
made me think, how are they going to stop Matthew
Stafford And how is Christian McCaffrey going to gain any yards?

Speaker 2 (58:37):
I just like forgetting about the number, just looking at
the schemes. It's a tricky.

Speaker 1 (58:44):
It's a tricky one. We'll talk about it on Thursday
a little bit more.

Speaker 3 (58:47):
And I'll say this, I love our fans, especially like
the ones who listened to us and our dinner offseason
show this summer. I said I was not investing any
money in to Puka Nakua and I was invested in
Devata Adams. I feel like that was the value in
fantasy football. Puka started out incredibly, but he's been banged
up a lot. Yeah again in receiving touchdowns, Chad, here

(59:08):
we are through nine weeks Adams Vante Adams eight touchdowns.
So it's it was just all about value and playing
this in air and I just love that matchup with
him and Stafford. It's like I knew Stafford was gonna
love having a guy like him who's so smooth and
precise a running routes. And yeah, I'm not gonna lie.
It is scary betting against this Rams team right now,
but this feels like such a spot, such a spot

(59:31):
to go against them, So yeah, I'm interesting what the
professionals do with this line. Early money obviously has come
in pretty heavy on this Rams team all right.

Speaker 1 (59:38):
Time for the prime time spot, lies Chacking taking a
look at our Island games. Pittsburgh is visiting the Chargers.
The line has moved from three and a half down
to three. Another stinky line. Not stinky, but just another
bad line that the bookmaker's posted on Sunday night. Forget
about it being a raw round. Mike Tomlin spot, how
are the Chargers going to protect Justin Herbert? We see

(59:59):
it every single week. They're out. Joe Alt is now
out for the season. Bobby Hart, who was supposed to
be an off the street sort of backup, turned into
one of their better offensive linemen. He pulled his growing
status unknown for this weekend. The Steelers did do things
defensively against the Colts that I think were new and
they were the reasons why we were sometimes afraid to

(01:00:22):
bet them. They stopped playing so much man with Jalen Ramsey,
they moved him to safety. They got Kyle Dugger from
the from I think the Patriots, right and they played
him a lot in the game. So now they put
all this stuff on film so people can see that
they were playing zone and it's not going to be
confusing to anybody. But the bigger issue is just the

(01:00:46):
Chargers cannot protect Justin Herbert and if TJ. Watt Alex
Highsmith can do anything against this chief, this Charger's offensive line,
he's just going to be running for his life the
entire game.

Speaker 3 (01:01:00):
Yeah, I hate this game so much. I'm not gonna lie.
It's your early read on Someday was so right. It
was a Pittsburgh number three and a half. Now, if
you went three and a half, it's like minus one thirty.
That's just totally gone hard rock here in Jersey's already
moved to two and a half minus two and a
half now, wow, So it's kind of becoming a Chargers line. Shockingly,

(01:01:22):
my model had this had a pick so like a
ton of value to this other team. I think that's
what you're saying. It's like, maybe I'm underestimating the value
of Joe Alt and this offensive line, how important it
is to success not only Herbert but that running attack,
which if you can't get that going against its Pittsburgh team,
they make you one dimensional. Yeah, there are ways Pittsburgh
can defensively play really well, right when they know you

(01:01:44):
have to pass. You got guys like Watt up front.
That's gonna be a huge deal, right, and he can
just spin his years back. But I just I'm having
a hard time getting there on Pittsburgh get two and
a half. At three, I can get there three and
a half. I'm all the way there. But at two
and a half, I'm slowly starting to be like, isn't
this a Chargers line? At what point does this become
a Chargers line? Because to me, they are still the

(01:02:06):
better team. And I just even last week it took
five turnovers and a ton of things go their way
for Pittsburgh to kind of win that game.

Speaker 4 (01:02:14):
Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:02:16):
It feels like we have a pattern here with Pittsburgh
this year. Right, the games they win, they have tons
of turnover luck because it's just you know, it's a
dysfunctional defense. Like we said, teams can get theirs against them,
they're gonna give up yards. Can they win the turnover battle?
That's how they're gonna steal games. So Herbert, it should
be a great Herbert game and spot for Herbert. But
like you said, if he has a third stringer going

(01:02:39):
up against what, I don't care how much you're chipping
with the tight end or the running back. Someone's getting
a one on one against the really bast suspect backup
on that offensive line, they're gonna win.

Speaker 4 (01:02:48):
So I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (01:02:49):
If you can get the plus three on Pittsburgh, that's
probably the line to get right now. But I'm really
not too favorable of either of these sides right now.

Speaker 1 (01:02:57):
Last game on the board Philadelphia at green Bay. Green
Bay's at two and a half point favorite. It's got
to be green Bay. This has to be the by
low Sell high spot. I know the Eagles have traded

(01:03:19):
for done half the trades, you know, how we go
and how we before the trade deadline. They've added Jalen
Phillips from the Dolphins. They added Jared Alexander the cornerback
who had been buried on the Ravens bench. I don't
know if that's going to be the solution to their
you know, second cornerback need on the edge. But we've

(01:03:41):
just seen the Packers lose to the Panthers at home,
in which the Panthers defense was great, but like you
pointed out, the Packers did not punt in that game.
That was self inflicted, entirely by the Packers. Meanwhile, the Eagles,
they're like, they're looking like champions the last couple of

(01:04:02):
weeks so and they got to buy. So I'm a
little surprised that this is under two and a half
because it feels like such a Packer's line. I'm actually
surprised it hasn't moved to three.

Speaker 4 (01:04:14):
And we always said heart hard rocks sharp book here
in Jersey. They just hit two. So really, Yeah, so
there's some professional money.

Speaker 3 (01:04:23):
Obviously, he's coming on the Eagles, and that's I knew.
We saw it Sunday night. I knew this gonna be
the most public dog of the week, and you know,
public dogs do hit. Like the Bills were the number
one public dog last week. They came to no problem.
So this Eagles team everything you said is so true.
They could be getting in to form here. I'm walking
into it.

Speaker 4 (01:04:43):
I just.

Speaker 3 (01:04:46):
I like to think that the Screen Bay team is
better than what we've seen, and when they play against
certain competition, they're another team to plays the level of
that competition.

Speaker 4 (01:04:55):
I mean, how many times we've seen.

Speaker 3 (01:04:56):
This year they play well against really good teams and
then lay total eggs against suspect teams like that Browns game.
That was a really suspect loss, and that was once
again on Jordan Love.

Speaker 4 (01:05:07):
He gave that game away.

Speaker 3 (01:05:09):
How do you not blame Jordan Love for that Carolina loss?
He gave that game away. He just made so many
bad mistakes. So I know, I love this one. Sunday,
I'm kind of flipping towards the Eagles. Unfortunately, I'm getting
kind of getting pushed into it. I want to hold
firm here what the professionals are saying here, I'll see
what other guys are saying. But as right now, a
couple of pros I talk to they do like the

(01:05:30):
Eagles here. They like the number, especially with the hook
at two and a half. But it doesn't just feel
like a stinky line. This should be a Green Bay
spot so I'm gonna dive more into this one right now. Again,
can't can't get much from the model that my model
has this one and minus one Green Bay. So tankicly
is egos line. But I just think something's real trappy

(01:05:50):
about this game. And yeah, this Eagles teams championship for him,
Like you said, they've looked.

Speaker 4 (01:05:55):
This is gonna be a true test.

Speaker 3 (01:05:57):
This is a really good Green Bay team on the
road after an embarrassing loss. You expect Laflor to get
these guys to bounce back.

Speaker 2 (01:06:04):
Yep, that's exactly yet, all right.

Speaker 1 (01:06:06):
I mean, we're gonna have a lot to talk about
on Thursday because we got a lot a The trade
deadline I think is impacting some of this.

Speaker 2 (01:06:11):
We want to see where players end up.

Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
Obviously, even while we were talking about this, we were
considering the Jets and then they trade Sauce Gardner Denver
minus eight and a half, as Simon says, we're thinking
about Miami plus nine and a half, the Giants plus
three and a half against the Bears on the road Carolina.
We'd like it to wait to four and a half.
We hope it gets there. Jets minus one and a half.

(01:06:36):
We talked about we were hoping to get Houston. We
were hoping to get it at one and a half.
Who Tampa Bay minus two and a half. That is
Chad's choice. Would you say Baltimore at four is still
a playable number?

Speaker 4 (01:06:51):
I don't hate it.

Speaker 3 (01:06:51):
I'm just again, I think we had PTSD from last
week where it's like we're betting a super public favorite
on the road. That's what I'm trying to tell people.
I you can get I'm more comfortable in the money line.
I know it's not great because it's two to one
on your money, but I just I don't know. If
I bet two hundred and one hundred, what I feel
is a pretty safe bet.

Speaker 4 (01:07:10):
I usually take that position.

Speaker 2 (01:07:12):
We'd like Houston to get to plus one.

Speaker 4 (01:07:15):
Yeah, please you to get to a dog Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:07:17):
Detroit minus eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:07:19):
We'll see San Francisco plus three and a half, itchy,
and then Green Bay minus two and a half. We're
going to keep an eye on. So still a lot
to discuss on Thursday. There's too much movement right now
to outside of our chat choice, and Simon says, to
get firm. This has been sharper square part of the
Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with
the games we are zeroing in on, plus our head

(01:07:41):
to head, Sharp Versus Square, Battle, brass Ball, so much more.
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
Subscribe to the channel. Also done with from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want.

Speaker 2 (01:07:55):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you.

Speaker 5 (01:07:58):
Hey, let's be careful

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