Sharp or Square - NFL Week 14 Bets: Cowboys-Lions, Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
show that makes the Square sharper and makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman. I am joined
as I am for every episode. Bye bye, BFF, my
companion Micha and Padre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, so

(00:26):
I'm in Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Are we doing dude?

Speaker 1 (00:30):
I feel pretty good. I feel pretty good. Even with
last night losing the Giants game. We went on the
Giants for the last game in our final five because
we truly believed the luck would turn. It did not turn.
It did not turn at all. In fact, it might
have gotten worse. You give up a long kick return

(00:51):
to start the game. You give up a pumper turn
for a touchdown. You have a kicker who has everybody
simultaneously watching that game saying, never see that before, because
he kicks the ground and never makes it to the ball.
You've got first downs being called back because the other
the Giants can't stop fighting with the Patriots. It was
just a train wreck. Yet you bet the seven because

(01:16):
you're never really out of it. And even when they
were down thirty to fifteen, in the second half, You're like,
we still got a shot. It never really worked out
for us.

Speaker 3 (01:27):
Hopefully last week was just a bad week for us
with special teams. This week it's a little better because
it feels like we have two different games where, yeah,
I can't really blame the offensive defense in that game
as much as you really want to, just blame really
really poor special teams play. So that Giants game just
absolutely brutal. How bad that special teams was in that
game and Dart taking hits again. I know it's gonna

(01:48):
be a big talking point this whole week. But you
see the talent. I think we all see the talent.
Oh yeah, my god. If this kid could figure it
out just to live for the next down.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
I mean, it's just he's so reckless with everywhere he plays.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
In his interviews, he says things, You're just like, man,
you sound like a dumb, naive kid. Like I get
what he's saying. Like he is a tough guy, he
plays tough. This isn't no one cares how tough you are.
They just want you to last. Like I wish Eli
Manning could just explain to him. It's like I wasn't
the best quarterback ever. But I played every game. I
never missed the game, and that was one of my
greatest strengths. So dark tons of talent, but man, those

(02:25):
hits he was taking that first quarter.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
I don't know about you, but it was scaring the
hell out of.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
Me, scaring the hell out everybody. I mean, he looked,
you know, like you said, what do you say, This
isn't golf or whatever? Soccer? Yeah, listen. We went two
and three with the contest or with the five favorite
picks from Sunday Morning. We won with the Jets, We
won with the Texans. We lost with the Browns, the
Steelers and the Giants. You bet those three teams you

(02:49):
get what you deserve Simon. For the year, we are
thirty six and twenty nine through thirteen weeks. It's our
Tuesday show. We will review the entire slate. You can
check out the Sunday Am Show if you want the games.
That will be our official five after we've had a
chance to review everything. Don't forget. You can get the
shows on Sharper Square at YouTube. Also download from Spotify,

(03:13):
Apple Pods, wherever you get your pots. Good news, folks,
the contest that we have talked about that. We have
promised that, we have hoped we could all deliver on,
meaning me Simon, Matt Mitchell, so everybody could be playing
the same lines. You are able to sign up right now.

(03:37):
So many people got blown out of their survivor pools
on Thanksgiving Thursday, with the Ravens, the Lions, the Chiefs
and the Eagles on Friday, all losing. This is a
great way to re engage. Consider this your second chance
to be in some kind of contest for the rest

(03:58):
of the NFL season. Go sign up right now, make
your picks. It's live, It's open, Sharp or Square dot
the Volume dot com. Again, go sign up right now,
sharpor square dot the Volume dot Com. Here's producer Matt

(04:18):
with all of the details. All right, Matt Mitchell always
stressed appropriately. We have been getting a ton of questions
about the contest that we have been able to officially
announce has launched. People can go sign up. Can you
please tell everybody how they can do that?

Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yes, very excited that the contest is officially live. You
can just go to sharp or Square dot the Volume
dot com to sign up for this totally free contest
and you can make your Week fourteen picks right away.
It'll be the same website and your same log in
throughout the entire contest.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
How long Matt Free Contest. How long will this totally
free contest run?

Speaker 4 (05:05):
Okay, so it starts this week, which is week fourteen,
and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday, So
that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry
up and sign up because registration for this free contest
closes at one pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December seventh.

Speaker 1 (05:25):
Totally free contest in which people are going to win
prizes and compete against me and Simon Matt tell everyone
how the contest works.

Speaker 2 (05:34):
It couldn't be easier.

Speaker 4 (05:35):
You just select five games against the spread each week,
along with one tiebreaker question, and once we hit the
middle of the playoffs and the slates get smaller, we
may include some totals and a player proper two just
to beef it up, But for right now, it's just
five games against the spread. And during the regular season,
deadline to submit your picks will be one pm Eastern

(05:59):
on and you can always see where you stand with
everybody else using the leaderboard function, which is also at
Sharporsquare dot the Volume dot Com.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
The most important question, Matt, as we have been getting
comments on this all year long. Will these lines that
we are all playing together against each other in good fun,
will these lines move?

Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yes.

Speaker 4 (06:29):
The lines in this contest, the Sharper Square Pro Football
Pickum Contest, are dynamic as they've been the last two seasons,
so they'll move with the market throughout the week. But
be advised, these are still contest lines, so they'll always
end in half points to avoid ties. All pecks must
win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
Move dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going
to win? What is the grand prize?

Speaker 4 (06:59):
Okay, grand prize? The contest winner and a guest will
be flown to warm, wonderful South Florida where they will
enjoy a complimentary two nights day at the beautiful Seminal
Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, along with tickets to the
Memphis Grizzlies versus Miami Heat game on February twenty first.

Speaker 1 (07:20):
That is going to be a burn burner, very important.
Can people change their picks during the week.

Speaker 4 (07:29):
Yes, If you want to make any changes to your picks,
you just need to cancel your entry and make all
five picks again. At the bottom of your finished entry,
there's a little button that says cancel and play again.
You click that cancels your entry. You make your picks
again at the current contest lines.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Easy pasy.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
Is there a tiebreaker?

Speaker 4 (07:50):
Yes, so this contest is only nine weeks long, so
the type breaker is going to be really important, as
it has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards
in a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the
event of a tie at the end of this contest,
the winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential.
So when you submit your picks, do not forget to

(08:11):
put in your tiebreaker.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
Answer, Matt. Will all of the games be included as
available contest picks.

Speaker 4 (08:22):
So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest.
We never have, probably because those games are an abomination,
But generally speaking, all other games will be available to
choose who.

Speaker 1 (08:33):
Can play in this contest Matt.

Speaker 4 (08:35):
Okay, you just need to be twenty one years or
older as of today and located in the United States,
So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners.
The only US states that are excluded are Rhode Island
and Washington State. Tell me why they have tricky rules
about free to play games. So like, if you live

(08:57):
in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I
don't ask me. I have no idea, but I wish
you the best of luck anyway.

Speaker 1 (09:05):
All right, well listen. Thank you Matt for the FAQs.
Thank you for other work getting the contest ready to roll.
Thank you to our sponsors at hard Rock Bet for
working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so
we could bring this to you. Guys, better late than never.
Go sign up for the contest. It is open and

(09:25):
ready to roll right now. Everything's live. We're all playing
it together. These are going to be the lines that
Simon and I refer to and the games that Simon
and I refer to for the rest of the year.
No more stale lines, all dynamic. We're all in it together.
Let's kick things off, Simon. Thursday Night Football Dallas at Detroit.
Detroit is now a three point favorites, come down from

(09:47):
three and a half. Obviously, two teams that had wildly
different experiences on Thanksgiving, with the Lions not able to
get over the top against the Packers. The Cowboys just
completely having their way with the Chiefs. Expectations changing for
both of these teams dramatically. I got thoughts on this one,

(10:08):
but I want to get your take.

Speaker 3 (10:11):
Yeah, it feels like we're supposed to just be hammering
Detroit here. I mean, this is the Detroit line. This
is a Detroit game. But the more you stare at it,
like you just said, it's two teams going in totally
different directions, it feels like, and you know, football momentum
does shift, but the injuries for the Detroit it feels
like at some point and it really has reached that

(10:34):
point that they have caught up to him.

Speaker 2 (10:35):
Right.

Speaker 3 (10:36):
It's like now they're saying, I'm on around Saint Brown
might be out, and it's like, Okay, Golf now has
lost his number one tight end, is number one receiver.
This is the already guy that needs his weapons to succeed.
On the flip side of Dabas, it feels like every
week picking CD and Dak all that that three just
keeps getting better and better. I mean, you can throw
Ferguson in there. He's been great for them at the

(10:56):
tight end. So I don't know is it better. I
just I have to bet the Lions or nothing else.
I hate this game. I hate it so much. I'm
so glad in our contest we can't make this a
pick because I really want to take Dallas a three
and a half, Like there's three and a half's out there,
But man, is this number just off to me? Like
my model has just said one and a half. So
it's a Cowboys line if you guys want to be

(11:17):
bilt the computer. I think it's just like with the public.
It's like all the injuries. You can't overlook at this
Lin's team, how banged up they are. But I just,
like you said, maybe I keep living in the passless
Lions team. It just feels like this is the exact
spot the Lions put them fifty against a defense that
as great as people will make them out to be.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (11:38):
I still have questions about that secondary of that Cowboys team.
So it feels like a good spot for lines, but
I just can't get there.

Speaker 1 (11:44):
Chad, Yeah, I wanted to be on the Lions here.
I don't want to bet the Cowboys because it's just
the public play and the Lion is moving into their direction.
The majority of the bets are on the Cowboys right now.
And my issue with the Lions. And we've bet into
the Lions because we have believe they're going to turn
it around and this is going to be a liant
spot and they're going to be at home and this

(12:04):
is when they tend to make themselves get healthy and
turn things around. But here's the problem. Their offensive line
just isn't as good. And we've always bet on their
offensive line. Everything for Detroit's success, in every single way,
starts with their offensive line. They do not have the
same interior offensive line that they had last year. They

(12:28):
have lost Frank ragnow, they have lost Kevin Sitzer, who's
starting for Tennessee. Now, they don't have the same talent
there and the people they put in place haven't been
as good and are injured. And that interior line is
where everything starts. It's how their running game gets going.
It's how Jamir Gives gets up through the middle of
the line and then is able to break runs outside

(12:50):
and beat out defensive backs to the sidelines and to
the goal limp. It's how they are so good at
converting fourth downs. If you look at their games, they're
not converting fourth downs, and that's giving the opponent short
fields and opportunities to score that the Lions can't come
back from. And it also isn't protecting Jared Goff up
the middle, which is why he's been so wildly ineffective,

(13:14):
and the Cowboys know of Quentin Williams in the middle.

Speaker 3 (13:18):
The Cowboys here, like you just said, it just feels
like this is why we should being the Cowboys. That's
why remember are a hard time with it. It's like
my computer is telling us to do it. Yeah, no,
we should do it, and this the better and us
are just scared off because it is so public, just
everyone of the where.

Speaker 2 (13:34):
It's like even just going through their schedule.

Speaker 3 (13:37):
You know they beat that Tampa team twenty four to
nine before their bye weekend. We all know that was
a banged up Tampa team. Is that really that good
of a win. Since then, they've lost to Minnesota, they
beat it back up with Washington, lost to the Eagles,
beat up a backup with the Giants, and then lost
to the Green Bay Packers by what could have been
double digits. Right, it was only a touchdown, but fell

(13:59):
like Green really have their way in that game. So
maybe people are right reacting like this team is still
a top four, top five team in NFC, and maybe
they're kind of a topn eight nine team that's going
to miss the wild card, and that's what they are.

Speaker 2 (14:13):
So this is really unique.

Speaker 3 (14:14):
It really is where it's like we both kind of
know we should take Dallas, but the better than us.
I've seen this game before and we've seen Cowboys just
toy lay and egg gear, so it's it's a really
hard want to get a read on.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
Also, I will say their secondary, they refuse to stop
playing Manda Man. And I think also you mentioned that
Bucks game, which is really smart because in that game
their secondary was banged up and they were playing so
well in Manda Man. That's an image that we all
have in our head from a primetime game, and for
you and I who bet on the lines of that game,
we were just so excited to see them turn around

(14:46):
and do what they did, CD and pickens against Manda
Man coverage. When Terry and Arnold, who was supposed to
be a shutdown corner is out, Kirby Joseph is injured,
Amik Robertson is the one guy they count on and
he's really a slot corner. Who's better off in zone
than Manda Man. I love his heart, I don't love

(15:06):
his size. I don't love a speed like. There's a
lot of things wrong here, and we keep thinking that
it's going to be the Lions team of old and
it's not. And I wish we had been thinking like
that for other games in the past. I agree with you.
I don't want to be on the public side here.
That's what's stopping me. And maybe we're just being stubborn.

Speaker 2 (15:26):
It's true.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
Washington minus one and a half now at Minnesota. Reminder
Sunday night, we said take the Commanders when they were underdogs.
This line was gonna move. It moved. It did exactly
what we said it was going to do. After by
the way, nice job, Simon. We had the Commanders plus
six plus six and a half against the Broncos worked

(15:50):
out exactly like we planned. We expect to get JJ
McCarthy back this week out of the concussion protocol. We
also expect to get Jayden Daniels from his dislo cater
at elbow. Wow. This Vikings team is in disarray right now.
They cannot find the answer of how to even respond
about how bad their quarterback situation is who's at fault?

(16:13):
Is it the GM, is it the coach? Did JJ
McCarthy say to Sam Darnold, I wish we had you
back like it is? It is chaos right now in Minnesota.

Speaker 3 (16:24):
Yeah, but at the same time, it feels like they
have to play and like I've talked about, they just
you just got to They already threw them to the
Wolves early in the year where they basically put him
in there. Yeah, I mean, just how to drop him
in after you come off an injury. And it's the
same thing here where it's like, yeah, they could hold
him out a concussion, what good does that do? They
need to see if this he can start improving week

(16:44):
by week, right, because right now it's just rock bottom.
We all think he's me out the league in two
three years. So it's a bizarre line, like you just said,
this is flipped. There's a couple of books right now.
You can still get Washington plus one and a half jed.
So this line seesawing and I think we're both an agree.
It's like, if Daniels is back, how is this not

(17:05):
a great spot for the Commanders?

Speaker 2 (17:06):
Right?

Speaker 3 (17:07):
You have Terry McLaurin back and healthy with their quarterback Daniels,
that's a nice combo, Like, that's a combo that should
be able to push the ball downfield against of Like
you said, we see that they are good defensively, but
they're not what they were last year. Right, They're not
this juggernaut take away machine. We've seen them be up
and down this season defensively. So h for me, this

(17:27):
is a very bizarre line. Like we both agree, if
it's Daniels and we're getting plus one and a half,
especially in our own contest, we can lock that in today.

Speaker 2 (17:35):
That's the type of line we sit on.

Speaker 3 (17:36):
We don't move because it feels like it could easily
get to minus three minus four and Washington once it's
confirmed that Daniels is back, because I still think and
within the organization of Washington they don't. There's some people
that do not want him to play this year. Honestly.
They're just some people have been there since you RG
three experience, and they're very weary of trying to have
a kid come back too early from an injury. And again,

(17:59):
this isn't Daniel's first injury this year, right, He's missed
a couple of games already this year. Yeah, with injuries.
So it's a unique spot where I know people are thinking,
come on, like is this I get to competitive? But
he's he really trying to rush back to lead us
to what like we're out of a division. They're not
going to catch Dallas or the Eagles. It doesn't really
make sense from the rush back other than he's just
a really high level competitor and he just wants to

(18:20):
play Daniels. So it is us as betters, we're betting
on him being back this week because we heard he
could have played last week apparently like he was cleared
enough and they held him out that game.

Speaker 2 (18:30):
So I still like us taking it here. Chet, I
just don't get the line.

Speaker 3 (18:34):
I don't get why there's still plus one and a
half's up there where everyone knows he's probably gonna be back.
On the other side, JJ, he's a train wreck, like
we've seen him play. Could he put it together a
good game or would Yeah? Of course we saw him
against that Lions team where a good game for him
is just not making stupid turnover. So I just I'm
a little lost on this one. But we're in agreement.

(18:55):
If you can get the one and a half plus
one and a half on Commanders. How do you not
bet that right now?

Speaker 1 (18:59):
Yep? Totally great.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Should I make it? Simon says, I feel like you
should make a chat to it. Sho, I think it.

Speaker 3 (19:03):
Simon says, I figured, I'm looking live to hard rock
here in Jersey. They're plus one at hard Rock Commanders.

Speaker 1 (19:10):
If you can get the Commanders as an underdog, I
think you have to get it.

Speaker 3 (19:13):
I'm gonna I'm gonna make an executive decision. Simon says,
I want to play a game. Simon says, give me.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bet, it's going to
be the Washington Commanders at plus one. Go get it
at the hard Rock books right now, Simon says, presented
by hard Rock Beat. Another game, short line, Indianapolis Colts
minus one and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So

(19:45):
I bet this. I bet the Colts minus one and
a half. Honestly, it's a bet against the jackson It's
a bet against Trevor Lawrence. And it's a bet because
you know, my model likes the Colts in a spot
a good team off of a tough loss against a
good team that's off of a blowout. I tend to

(20:06):
think there's going to be a little bit more value
on the team that is off of the tough loss.
And this is all of a sudden becomes such a
challenging situation for the Colts because the Texans have a
ton of momentum, the Jags are now right with them
for first place in the AFC South. And we know
about the Daniel Jones broken fibula, shattered fibula, fractured fibula,

(20:28):
whatever it is, and we also know that we don't
know when it happened, and he can't say when it happened,
So he might have been playing great all season on
an injured leg. But whatever the case is, since the buye,
he had a good first half against the Chiefs and
then cratered in a game in which the Chiefs came
back and won. He had a very mediocre game, minus

(20:51):
some gorgeous passes in the Texans game in which the
Texans won and the Colts could not get it done
and convert at the end of the game when they
still had a chance to win that game. Is it
the leg? Is it the Chiefs defense? Is it the
Texans defense, sauce Gardner will not be playing in this game. Like,
you got to feel for this team a little bit.
They were riding so high. They went all in. They

(21:12):
went to get sauce Gardner. Now he's out for an
extended period of time. Jones is playing on whatever he
has with his fibula. I'm on the Colts, but I'm
feeling less confident about it than I was the other day.
I really bet because I thought the number was gonna move.

Speaker 2 (21:27):
I bet at Tunea has moved.

Speaker 3 (21:28):
Actually there's some two's out there now on this Colts team,
but I got to go against it. I got the
Jags a minus three in my model, so apparently this
is way off an incredible Jag spot And I was like, okay,
I'm we're definitely overlooking the Jones injury because I guys,
I have been moving his number down and every week

(21:50):
it's it's been working for us going against them, because
like you said, they've just something's been off with them
and they have not been clickings. It makes sense, right,
they only could go so far as Damas can go
because the teams are just taken away Taylor, and you know,
looking at this matchup, I was just like, Okay, if
the weakness now is going to be once again the
Colts secondary, isn't this when you want to back this

(22:12):
Jags team where we've seen with Brian Thompson junior back
and Myers, that's a pretty good tandem there, Like, that's
a nice one to two receiving corps for Trevor Lawrence
is you know, as bad as he is, those guys
are just wide open against certain defenses. Right, They're just
not going to have cover corners for both those guys.
And even the trends going back a long time here,

(22:34):
we always know we always back the Jaguars against the Colts.
That's why I was like, oh, finally we will be
able to back to the Colts against the Jags, because
it's just historically the Jags have owned the Colts, doesn't
matter who the quarterback has been. Like going back to
I think it's twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, this Colts organization
three and sixteen against the spread against the Jaguars. Now

(22:56):
you can be like, okay, well give me some Trevor
Lawrence stats.

Speaker 2 (22:59):
How's he been.

Speaker 3 (23:00):
He's actually been shockingly good as a dog too. Trevor
Lawrence against the Colts. You know, it's it's pretty alarming
him him against the Colts and the Texans. In his career,
he's five and two against the spread as an underdog,
covering by him with seven points per game.

Speaker 2 (23:13):
So Trevor, we're kind of seeing a picture here. When
he's divisionally as a dog, he plays really well.

Speaker 3 (23:20):
He plays to that number and we've seen as a favorite,
we tend to fade him. And you know, Colts, if
they're at home, I can maybe get talked in this spot,
but the fact they're on the road, it's another bad
spot for them against the Jaguars. They're one to nine
in neutral or away games. So for some reason, the
Colts have just struggled against the Jags eve when the
Drags have been awful. Like I'm talking, if you go

(23:41):
back the one year the Jacks had one win with
Gardon Minshew, me and Chad bet on it, they upset
and beat this Colts team. I think the Cults are
an eight point favorite and they lost out right.

Speaker 1 (23:50):
So first game of the year, only game they lost.

Speaker 3 (23:53):
Talk all the time, there's weird divisional stuff, Chad, Right,
there's always that weird stuff with divisional foes, and like
I've said this year it might not happen, but the
NFCS has not had a repeat champion. You're seeing an
Eagles absolutely melt down. Cowboys are still plus six hundred
to win the division.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
Go get it.

Speaker 3 (24:09):
But to this game, I'm just I was like you
right away. I wanted to be in the Colts. My
model told me to stay away. I'm trying to trust
my model more, and even here, the trends tell you
the Jags tend to play really well against this cold
two matchup ball of form. So you know, I'm gonna
wait and see what's going on with the injury report.
But if the Jags their number one uber two receivers

(24:30):
are healthy, I think that's enough to give me a
lean here to this Jags team, where I think it's
about trusting the number.

Speaker 2 (24:36):
Take them as a dog so you might be able
to get twos out there.

Speaker 3 (24:38):
People like I said the Colts, they're being better right
now and I've seen some professional money coming on them.

Speaker 2 (24:43):
Like they were a pick a couple of books.

Speaker 3 (24:45):
Now they're at minus one, minus one and a half
a couple of already public books are at minus two.
So if you're like me and you like the Jags.
Be patient, you may be able to get two two
and a half on this number.

Speaker 1 (24:54):
Jacobe Meyers, even in a couple of games, has made
a difference, just as it's sort of an inside receiver
that Liam Cohne can lean on in ways that Brian
Thomas was not able to do. And obviously Travis Hunter
being out has not been able to do, so that
could also be a sneaky difference. You know, he's had
some big games already for them that maybe we're under counting.

(25:19):
Who knows. I bet the Colts being very uncomfortable, I'm
happy to buy out of it. I have no strong
conviction on this game. So good one.

Speaker 3 (25:30):
I see that my model thinks is four and a
half points off. So that right there was like very like,
oh I am we're all underestimating this Jacks tine. They're
literally leading this division. They played well all year. We
just I think we all just hate Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 1 (25:44):
It's just, hey, Trevor Lawrence, it really is.

Speaker 3 (25:46):
I think it's just simply a Trevor Lawrence bias we're
all going through. So this probably is a good spot
to back this Jacks team.

Speaker 1 (25:53):
New Orleans at Tampa Bay this line has moved up
from eight and a half to nine at hard Rock.
I think there's still some eight and a half out there.
I don't know. Like this line was three and a
half when they played a month ago in New Orleans,
and the Bucks won that game by twenty. But the
Bucks did not look good in winning that game at all.

(26:15):
It was seven to three at the half, and the
Bucks only got that touchdown off of pick six. Sixteen
of their twenty three points basically came on turnovers or
short fields. So this was an early indicator that the
Bucks are not as effective as they had been. Now.
Of course, obviously they didn't have Chris Godwin, they didn't

(26:37):
have Bucky Irving. It's a different team. The Saints are
not Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. The line has moved
in the Bucks direction. I really don't have a read
on this game. I'm waffling because I don't have any
thoughts on this game.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
Another game I hate because I have to bet the
Saints where it's like I wanted to be on the Bucks.
Like you just said, I watched that Buccaneers game because
I had had some of money on and Bucky Irving
is so good. He is such a game changer for
that offense, just his contact, his move within when it's
really tight getting downfield. I mean he had a touchdown
call back on just a horrible hold by one of
his teammates where it's like he had a walk in touchdown.

(27:18):
It's just a different offense when he is in there,
and you know, God.

Speaker 2 (27:21):
When if he didn't have that bad drop. They usual
to cover that number last week.

Speaker 3 (27:24):
So it's a Bucks team that I assumed the public
would be off, they'd be undervalued, but no one believes
in the Saints team. This number is probably off by
two points. Like I again have this at seven. So
it makes sense that the public is just totally off
the Saints team. And the fact that did they really
believe in them covering against Miami? Was that really just
too it playing horrible and keeping them in that game?

Speaker 2 (27:45):
Right?

Speaker 3 (27:46):
Miami dominated that game. Yeah, they could have put him
away and they let him hang around. And I think
some people said they got burned because I think they
have three and a half on that two pointer.

Speaker 2 (27:54):
I never saw the three and a half. I saw
a five four and a half all week on that.

Speaker 1 (27:58):
Same never saw, never saw. I didn't even see five
or four and a half. I never saw anything lower
than five and a half because I wanted to bet
the Dolphins and didn't pull the trigger because I just
felt like it was.

Speaker 3 (28:08):
Too hot at Yeah, so again you dive into the
trends too, like, look at the trends here for this
Saints team. I thought was really interesting that I felt
like we always backed them in their division as a dog,
and you know, we always had to make ourselves bet
against them, right caause they're always gona be blown up
numbers like this. I mean, they have not had a
relevant quarterback since Drew Brees, so that makes sense, but

(28:30):
it's crazy how undervalue they've been to the general public.
So since twenty eighteen, so I feel like that's the
end of the Drew Brees error. They're fifteen six and
one against the spread on the road against the NFC South.
That's eight and oh chat as an underdog. That's crazy.
So they've just been covering machine as an underdog in
their division because it's what we all think.

Speaker 2 (28:50):
Right.

Speaker 3 (28:50):
They're just a bad team, and they just seems like
every week they get rolled, but they keep games close, right,
even that game last week, they're getting dominated somehow pulled
it back and then to keep it close to cover
that number. So I thought that was interesting. They've just
been covering divisionally, especially in the since that it feels
like they've been so irrelevant since Drew Brees. So yeah,

(29:11):
that one jumped out to me where I was like you,
I thought I was gonna be able over Baker here
back on this Bucks team once again because I just
loved seeing their offense moved up and down the field
last week.

Speaker 2 (29:20):
But what I really went back.

Speaker 3 (29:21):
And watched, there's still a little bit inconsistenty with Baker,
you know, not the blame guy went on that drop,
but it still feels like a Mecca a Buka's greatest
he was to start the year. He's not been that
guy these last couple of weeks. Right, It's a lot
to put on a rookie to be your number one.
So I just have some more questions about this this
Bucks team at this number. I do this Saint, So
I'll take the Saints here at such a huge number divisionally,

(29:43):
but it's another game where I don't know if I
don't force it to be one of our fives. But
I do think the number is a little inflated here.

Speaker 1 (29:49):
Yeah, like my point about saying that it was three
and a half a month ago on the road in
New Orleans. You know, just by the math it should
be about So let's say seven or eight. When you
just said it's about two points off, so let's say
it's seven seven and a half. It just feels like

(30:09):
too big of a number. And I think people are
too enthusiastic about the return of Godwin and Bucky Irvin
and they're downplaying the Saints. But I just have no idea.
Are we going to get Tyler Shuck who's in the
second half and is slinging, Or are we getting Tyler
Shuck in the first half who was down what nineteen
six to Miami. I mean, the beauty of getting a

(30:32):
big number is it's a big number in this Bucks
defense actually hasn't been very good. I do want to
know one thing. I want to know if Alvin Kamara
is going to be playing, because I do think the
rush defense for the Bucks it's been a little bit suspect.
We've seen Tims run on them. So if Alvin Kamara
is back, that makes me feel a little bit better
about betting the Bucks. I do not have the strong

(30:52):
conviction on betting this number that you do, even though
I know it's the right side to bet.

Speaker 3 (30:58):
I had a protext for me last night. It's like,
you a fucking Chad. You had Dart, Rogers and Sanders
as the three quarterbacks in your guys contest that lost.

Speaker 2 (31:09):
Yeah, that's fair, totally fair criticism.

Speaker 1 (31:12):
So we're gonna go with shuck. That's what we're doing.

Speaker 2 (31:14):
Now, Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 1 (31:16):
I know, I know, why do that? When Simon, We've
got Miami visiting the New York Jets, and the New
York Jets are two and a half point underdogs, and
we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chad's choice,
presented by hard Rock Bet, is going to be the
New York j e Ts Jets. Jets Jets at home

(31:38):
is two and a half point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
willing to make a choice? That choice?

Speaker 1 (31:48):
We can't run from a.

Speaker 2 (31:50):
Sharp dues to just see it, you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (31:56):
I did bet the Jets at plus three. We talked
about it on Sunday, so so the line was moving.
Literally during our show, we said live, if you want
to get the Jets get him right now at plus three.
I'll still bet him at two and a half, just
because I think they're the right side here. I'm probably
going to bet him on the money line too, as
I did last week against the Falcons. Do you remember, Simon,

(32:19):
Do you remember their last game against the Dolphins in
Week four? It was a Sunday night game. You and
I both bet the Jets. Do you remember anything about
that game?

Speaker 3 (32:32):
I do him with some blocking it out. That's crazy.
I don't remember it, honestly.

Speaker 1 (32:35):
That was the game where the Dolphins opened the game
of the field goal. The Jets then went on a
I think a twelve play twelve play drive eighty two yards.
Braylan Allen literally is crossing the goal line. He's millimeters
from crossing the goal line, fumbles the ball. The Dolphins recover.

(33:00):
They go on a fifteen play ninety four yard drive.
They're up ten to nothing. The next drive the Jets
are driving again, justin Field's fumbles the ball all of
a sudden, It's back and forth, back and forth, but
the Jets are never really able to get the game
close again. They lost twenty seven to twenty one, but
they were generally down two scores the entire game, so

(33:23):
we were never coming close to covering that game. It
was an excruciating Giants like performance until last night. It
might have been the most frustrating game we had all year.
So you're telling me that when the Jets were two
and a half point underdogs on the road in Miami.
Now we got tu in forty degree or less weather

(33:46):
not playing well. He's the reason he completed five passes
in the second half of that game against the Saints,
and he's the reason why they were able to come
back this past week. Now I got Tyrod Taylor, who's
a good runner. I got a Jets defense that is
performing better since they got rid of sauce in Quinn Williams.
And there's still two and a half point underdogs now

(34:06):
at home in shitty weather in December. For Tua, who
never performs that way well in those conditions, makes no
sense to me. Give me the Jets.

Speaker 2 (34:16):
Going back to the well. I don't hate it. Shot
around people.

Speaker 3 (34:18):
There are some threes s popping up out there, you know,
not that we got away with the last week, but
it's just it's just having that three when there's so
much chaos in these Jets games. But we talked a
little bit about it. Tyrod Taylor is just consistently underrated
by the market.

Speaker 2 (34:35):
He has been his whole career. I mean, who I'm
trying to think I'm a fan base.

Speaker 3 (34:39):
I just love some I guess the only one I
can think of is the Bills, right, he got him
to the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (34:44):
That was absolutely magical.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
But Rado, he's a pro bowler. I think.

Speaker 3 (34:49):
I think that was a Hunley, but it could have
been Tyrod Taylor. But it's just it's crazy, and just
going through his stats, this is all gambling stats. Obviously,
He's thirty seven to twenty one four against to spread
his career, so sixty three percent.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
Pretty insane.

Speaker 3 (35:03):
We talked about it feels like these last couple of years,
he's been an absolute machine at covering. Since twenty twenty two,
he is seven to zero to one against the spread
in his last eight starts. So guys, just under value
by the market. We'll keep betting it. But I'm on
the flip side of you. Like you just said how

(35:23):
bad Tua played. I've seen this all year with Tua.
He just lays eggs like that. In the next game.
He's just automatic. He's so up and down right now,
and it's why it's I think Miami fans are in
the same boat as everyone else where. It's like, Okay,
his peak best year was two years ago. It's it's
just gotten consistently worse ever since then. And it feels

(35:44):
the same with this year. He's just been so up
and down. So I like to play even though.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
It is technically a bounced backspot for TWOA.

Speaker 3 (35:49):
I think Chad's now that that the weather in the
Northeast right now is brutal, and we've seen it every
time it's bad. It's for Tua outdoors in the cold.
He just struggles, Like the numbers back up as well,
bad in the bad weather. And you know, doesn't matter
if it's rain or not. If it's below thirty five, chat,
we know the deal. If it's below freezing, he just
cannot win those games.

Speaker 2 (36:08):
So I love it.

Speaker 3 (36:10):
We both talked about we love Tyre Tedtor's just get
the three. We're talking hard rock right now, which is
two and a half. But I'm seeing a couple of
books up there with the three.

Speaker 2 (36:17):
So if you can get that.

Speaker 1 (36:19):
It is supposed to get colder in that game as
the game goes on. So yes, let's back the Jets,
j Ets, Jets, Jet Jets, and also let's get a
little bit of a word from our friends at hard Rock.
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(38:29):
hundred gambler. The Tennessee Titans are visiting the Cleveland Browns
and there are three and a half point underdogs. And
I think last year, if cam Ward was playing Shador
Sanders for Miami against Colorado, this would have been like
the Marquee matchup. It would have been a prime time

(38:49):
Saturday game, we it would have gotten all the pageantry
in the world. Instead, it's a game in which the
models are telling me to bet the Tennessee Titans, and
I want to toe to the models to fuck off
because I want to spend one Sunday not having to
be engaged with or watch the Tennessee Titans in any way,

(39:10):
the line has moved in the Titans direction. I saw
some four and a half's definitely four. It's now three
and a half.

Speaker 2 (39:17):
Oh, we know exactly what we're supposed to do here.

Speaker 3 (39:21):
God, We're supposed to take the Browns, my God, like
like you just said that, right, are coming in all
in on Tennessee like you said. And it's like, okay,
if the pros are coming on Tennessee and the public
is joining them, isn't this the exact spot we do
take the Browns because we talked about the Browns at
home that defense. I mean, these are terrible, terrible teams,

(39:43):
terrible have a highly elite defense. Like we talked about
that that for Niners game. That was no way, shape
or form on that Browns defense. This number is not
like it was this. If anything, this number should be
six because of how good this defenses.

Speaker 1 (40:00):
Like I just did the Brown score six points in
this game? Like in my head, I was like, this
feels like a three nothing game.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
I just can't believe it.

Speaker 3 (40:10):
Like you just said that all the money is coming
in on this Titans side, and I.

Speaker 1 (40:17):
Is in your model telling you to bet the Titans.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
Here. It shockingly wasn't like I actually had this a
minus four and a half.

Speaker 3 (40:25):
So I guess the opening number was pretty good for Titans, right,
the Titans opening four and a half?

Speaker 2 (40:28):
Five?

Speaker 3 (40:29):
Yeah, but yeah, I just to me, this is like
total overreaction by everybody. I just cannot believe people are
comfortably betting on cam Ward on the road in Cleveland.

Speaker 2 (40:41):
I don't know, maybe I'm missing something.

Speaker 3 (40:43):
I'll get some professional calls about this one, because I
was dying, like even diving into the numbers. It's like
this kid wants to turn the ball over. Cam Ward
takes insanely high risk throws.

Speaker 2 (40:54):
He holds onto the ball I think second longest in
all football.

Speaker 3 (40:57):
Right now, It's like this is just again all music
to my ears against Cleveland. This is exactly what they want.
I mean, Miles Gary must be thinking I'm solved. This
is the week I can get five sacks and just
absolutely break this record by ten because I still have
four games left. So it just all linds up for
me on this Browns team. And I got so many
funny texts last week about how on Tuesday I said,

(41:20):
no matter what, I won't be involved in any type
of Tennessee game and then somehow try to put them
in comes Sunday into our contest. I have a disease,
a sickness with this Tennessee team, So maybe I'm just
completely wrong.

Speaker 2 (41:31):
I should just avoid it.

Speaker 3 (41:33):
You know, the Browns, they're They're in a funny spot
here that where I'm interesting what the public does with
this line, because maybe it is just all professional and
the public are on the Browns and I'm missing it.
But right now, everything I've seen it's just professional and
the public have come in super heavy on the Tennessee tie,
where it's like, do we all just forget this Browns
defense is like top five in this league and now

(41:54):
it's a rookie in their home stadium.

Speaker 2 (41:56):
This isn't brock Purdy, this is cam Ward.

Speaker 3 (41:59):
Like it's just I can't believe that the opportunity we
might have here on this Browns team.

Speaker 2 (42:02):
So I'll be patient. Maybe I'll get into three.

Speaker 3 (42:05):
I'll get an insanely good number on this Brown side, because,
like we've just talked about, it's gone all the way
from four and a half to three and a half
in a lot of books.

Speaker 1 (42:13):
Supposed to be thirty ish and getting colder as the
day goes on in Cleveland on Sunday. No sign of precipitation.
I mean, I could be talked into it as long
as I don't know, as long I like the Browns.
You know, when we're watching, like I got four games
up and plus a game on my laptop, and so

(42:35):
normally when I'm watching the games that we've got bets on,
I tend to watch when they're like put the sound
on for those games when the teams that we have
bets on are on offense. The Browns are the team
that when we have bets on the Browns, I put
this sound down when they're on defense because I feel
like that's the only way they're going to win a game.
So for the Browns to win this game, I think

(42:56):
they're going to have to have at least multiple turnovers
and at least one turnover return for a touchdown, for
us to actually cover a number that is bigger than three, and.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
I feel like all those things are at like sixty
seven percent chance of happening. Like this is just just
an insane spot for this Browns defense to be and
against the Titans offense that has shown nothing all season
until it's to you know, prevent defense at end of games.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
That's when cam Ward seems to shine.

Speaker 3 (43:21):
So I get it it could be a better backdoor
spot for them, But like you said, defensive, I just
think they're going to dominate for three quarters and get
turnovers and this is that's that's how Browns are gonna
win this year. With shod Door Sanders a quarterback having
short field, it's not like last week where he was
on his own ten to fifteen the entire game. Like
he just he cannot exist in that world Shdoor Standers.
So I just like dismatchup a lot for this Browns defense.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
How do you feel about the Atlanta Falcons as seven
point underdogs at home against the Seattle Seahawks because this
line has moved from seven and a half down to
seven And like I know, I just said I don't
want to watch bad teams that I have to depend on.

(44:05):
I know the pros are on Atlanta. Seattle looked so good.
Public sentiment is so on the Seahawks' side, and the
Falcons are in such disarray and looked terrible. Everything about
that loss to the Jets is a tragedy. The Atlanta
Falcons had the ball and a chance to drive down

(44:27):
the field to get into field goal range and win
the game with fifty three seconds left, four downs, fifty
three seconds left, they had the ball, and somehow they
still lost the game in overtime. That's how tragic that
loss was for the Falcons. You couldn't get more of

(44:47):
a disparity between peak Falcons and Peak Seahawks and Valley
Falcons than you get right now.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
It's possible.

Speaker 3 (45:01):
I still think overall though it's it's not people don't
love the Seattle team. I thought this would have been
another game where it's like tons of tons of money
just pouring on Seattle here, because this feels like an
amazing spot.

Speaker 2 (45:12):
We've talked about it. It's a Seattle team that is
one of the best teams of football. All on the road.

Speaker 3 (45:17):
They are like as dominant as they were their last
game at home and their defense was their defense is
even specifically better on the road, especially this season. And
we've talked about Mike McDonald. He's been a machine on
the road. Like I told you, I don't want to
bet against him when he's on the road. I just
simply want to take them because I feel like long
term it's gonna be a winner. And you know, it's
a really early career here, but since he's taken over,

(45:38):
he's nine to four and one against the spread on
the road.

Speaker 2 (45:40):
That's really impressive.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
And on the East Coast, just saying East Coast for him,
he's five to and one against the spread. So he's
done really well in these spots save donald as well,
it feels like he performs well his big favorite shockingly
where usually when they give him these type of big
numbers like last week, you know he didn't do much
last week. It usually evens out with him, right, So
just diving into the trends with him where how long

(46:03):
he's been playing now, it's not that small of a sample, right,
So he's been this exact spot, so a favor of
six points or more ten times, he's ten and zero
straight up in his career, eight and two against the spread,
so tends to cover is a big favorite. He's usually
really good in these type of spots. And if you're
a Falcons team, I feel like what they're going to
grasp at is the fact that maybe people like me

(46:23):
and the public do overreact to when they come off
like what you had just said is a really bad loss.
And just this season alone off a loss, they're five
and two against the spread. So it is a team
that tends to perform well after a loss in the
public underrates them.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
But you dive into and it's just like, my.

Speaker 3 (46:40):
God, if this is still Kirk Cousins against the Seattle defense,
just talk him an absolute nightmare for him, right, It's
they're going to take away the run, Like this is
a defense that can take away the run and make
a team one dimensional.

Speaker 2 (46:51):
I think that's what they're gonna do here with Kirk.

Speaker 3 (46:53):
So fit's Kirk once again without his number one receiver
and he's forced to make big time plays against to
me and offense, they had their down week last week,
Like I think Sam Darno is gonna get his in
this matchup against a.

Speaker 2 (47:05):
Secondary just got torn up by Tyrod Taylor.

Speaker 3 (47:07):
So I mean, let's not like joke about it like that,
even what was it Jonathan Taylor ran for two to
fifty against them? Like there are so many ways to
attack this Atlanta defense that teams have been doing all season,
and they're one of the worst teams in football. So yeah,
I honestly, when I first saw these lines, I thought
I was gonna be on the Falcons. But the more
I dive into it, the more I look at it.
With the Seattle team, they're just what they are this season, right,

(47:28):
we got to put them the same category as a Rams.
They're an absolute juggernaut and probably the top three best
team in the NFC. So I really once again wanted
to be on the Falcons. But it's now at seven
at a hard rock. That's a Seahawks number to me,
So I'm gonna take that number. If you want to
play Falcons seven a half. I won't fight Trona, but
I got this at eight and a half. It's now
at seven. I'm gonna take that value on the Seahawks.

Speaker 1 (47:48):
Tyrod Taylor is a Super Bowl champion and a former
Pro Bowl quarterback.

Speaker 2 (47:55):
He's your new Cole McCoy.

Speaker 1 (47:56):
Getting beat by Tyrod Taylor is not anything to be
a shamed death thirty six years old, cover against.

Speaker 2 (48:03):
But being you as something definitely something.

Speaker 1 (48:07):
No, it's not. He's a he's a genius, genius with
the ball in his hands. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore is
a five and a half point favorite. One of our
listeners asked the other night in the live show on
Sunday in the YouTube chat, everyone go listen to the show.
Watch the show on Sunday nights. It's live. We're answering

(48:27):
your questions from the YouTube chat. Can we please stop
betting the Steelers? And normally this would be a spot
where we love the Steelers. Here's an amazing stat. Ben
Solak was a columnist at ESPN put out a column
this morning and I was reading it and it was great,
and it sort of said what level of alarm are
we at for a variety of teams. He talked about
the Steelers, he talked about the Ravens, he talked about

(48:48):
the Colts, he talked about the Lions. He had this
crazy stat. Aaron Rodgers sixty six point four percent of
his passing yards have come after the catch this season.
That is second only to aj Feely in twenty eleven.
In the past fifteen years. That's seven hundred and thirteen

(49:12):
quarterbacks and he is second worst. And then there was
like a litany of other stats of which he was
like between seven hundred and seven to fifteen for a
variety of other downfield passing numbers, Like the line has
moved from six and a half to five and a half.
So we know money has come in on the Steelers.
But I will say this, this Bills team just ran

(49:33):
for two hundred and fifty yards on the Steelers. The
last time these two teams played, Derrick Henry ran for
one hundred and eighty six yards on his own. And
the weakness for the Steelers defense there's Steelers rushing defense
is still top down in a lot of categories. They
are susceptible to explosive plays, especially late in the game.
And some of the things we've seen for this team

(49:54):
is where years passed when they did keep the game close.
They have been in getting tired and getting beat on
explosive plays the past couple of years, and that's a trend.
I don't want to be on that side of I
don't want to bet the Ravens, but I don't like
I don't like the Steelers here.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
Yeah, this is gonna be a really tough game because
I think we both know we've been taking the Steelers
in this exact spot for twenty Yes, you know, I
like you.

Speaker 2 (50:22):
Said, there's a ton of horrible Steeler stats.

Speaker 3 (50:24):
My favorite one I saw that just really pertains that
there's offense in Aaron Rodgers. Right now, they haven't completed
a downfield pass in thirty six days. This Steelers team,
they are zero for thirteen three interceptions of their last
five games combined on twenty plus air yards. So just historically,
like you just said, horrible, and like you can go

(50:46):
look at their schedule people, that is not five games
against absolute juggernaut defenses. These are some defenses that should
have been passed downfield.

Speaker 2 (50:53):
All are just Look, we're.

Speaker 1 (50:55):
Going to talk about the Bengals and the Bills, and
the Bills have one of the worst defenses against receiver
and explosive plays going downfield against the past of any
team in the NFL.

Speaker 3 (51:05):
Yeah, like Rogers, just I remember he was saying he
was thinking about how he would love to keep playing
another year and maybe come back for Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (51:13):
It is it's over all, the numbers bear it out.
I mean, something might be.

Speaker 3 (51:16):
Dumb enough to do it, but he's really done and
it's so painful, especially Diamond. All the trends here because
that's why we love the Steelers here because you just
it doesn't matter who the quarterback has been for either teams,
as long as it's been horrible and Tomlin.

Speaker 2 (51:31):
It always plays out the same.

Speaker 3 (51:33):
The worst the team that is worse record rise and
the public hats and does not trust. They always cover
in this game, in this matchup. And it's just crazy
looking at these trend numbers. So let's go back to
two thousand and two thousand and five, the other dog
in this series twenty nine, twelve and three against the
spreads seventy one percent. So just if you blindly have
just bet the dog in this series since two thousand

(51:54):
and five, you were hitting a seventy one percent clip,
which is I mean the dream.

Speaker 2 (51:58):
And going him further.

Speaker 3 (52:00):
Okay, if the line is three points are more, which
we always talk about in this unique spots because the
books know all these trends as well, dinner dog in
that spot when it's three points are more, twenty three,
five and three against the spread.

Speaker 2 (52:11):
So once again it's just like you blindly bet the
dog here.

Speaker 3 (52:15):
It's been very profitable, and you know it's it's unique too,
where you know, we talk about Tomlin as an underdog.
That's that's really when we love him, right, and this
year it's not been paying out for us. And we've
talked a little bit that TJ has just not been
the same, Right. TJ's got all this money, this has
been one of his worst years ever, Like he is
just non existent, not even getting QB pressures, let alone sacks.

Speaker 2 (52:35):
He's just been atrocious this year for them.

Speaker 3 (52:37):
And you know that really does affect him because you
just see once again all these numbers Tomlin as a
dog when in this exact matchup against Harrball he's thirteen
to four against the spread. He just always covers because
his defense tends to step up. So that's the hardest
part for me, Chad. It's like, we want to bet
them here, but the defense is disappointed us so much.
And you know, even Lamar, like you look back to
the years when he first came out and how good

(52:58):
he was, he was owned loud against the spread stars
career against the Steelers team, he.

Speaker 2 (53:02):
Just could not get it right. And Tomlin really had
his number.

Speaker 3 (53:04):
Now he has covered a few times of late here,
and you know that obviously is a big deal, but
not as a favorite.

Speaker 2 (53:11):
It's been really bad for him.

Speaker 3 (53:13):
And uh, you know, I just once again, I look
at these numbers, It's like, Okay, what are the Ravens
like when they're a big favorite like this? Because this
is rare, right, They're in a five and five and
a half point favorite in their history when they play
this matchup, and they're a favorite above this number, they
are three and ten against the spread and the Ravens
history against the Steelers at this number above. So again,

(53:33):
Ravens only been around since two thousand. I know it's
not going that far back, but just shows if you
just blindly bet the trends and take the dogs here,
you whoop successful. I think me and Chad both on
trust the Steelers team. I don't know about him. I'm probably
gonna end up on this Ravens team, especially if the
number keeps a moving, because I think with that's true,
I just think this Steelers defense is totally gone. They
have a quarterback they don't believe in who that they shouldn't.

(53:55):
All this numbers back it up, and they just don't
have that identity they've had in the past where even
though they've had really bad quarterback play, they've always had
a really good dominant defense. It feels like hunder Tomlin
and this year he doesn't feel that way. So ant
know about you, Chad, but I'm gonna go against the
trendch Here. I'm gonna go with this Ravens team of
mice five and a half.

Speaker 1 (54:11):
Weok, half of the battle when you're betting is to
figure out when the trend is no longer the right side. Right.
We started the show talking about the Lions and the Cowboys.
We have had the debate about the Chiefs all season long,
like trying to figure out when these teams that you
have relied on for so many years and made so

(54:31):
much money on something is off and something is off
and it's not just you know, the Steelers, it's not
just Aaron Rodgers. You talked about TJ. Watt. His get
off speed has decreased year after year after year after year.
Jalen Ramsey they had to move him to safety. They
do not have anyone in the defensive backfield who is

(54:52):
able to be a really effective defender against players that
are getting deeper into the secondary.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
So you know, this feels like I know we've been
waiting for.

Speaker 3 (55:04):
This feels like the start of if they get rid
of Tomlin, of like ten years of darkness in the Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (55:10):
They have no they have no path to getting a
quarterback right now.

Speaker 3 (55:14):
And they've spent all this money on all these old
guys on defense, like the most expensive defense in all football,
and it's you know, a bottom five defense right now.
It's just brutally really dark days for Pittsburgh.

Speaker 1 (55:25):
They owe TJ. Watt, Jalen Ramsey, and DK Metcalf nearly
one hundred million dollars next year. Like it is a
really tough spot. It's going to be interesting. You know,
people are chanting fire Tomlin like it's getting ugly out there.
I hate betting the Ravens here, but I'm much more
comfortable betting the Ravens than i am the Steelers. I

(55:45):
don't know if we'll get there for a final five
pick because Lamar just hasn't been Lamar like, and if
he can't do what he's going to do, it's hard
to back the Ravens. But certainly certainly an interesting game. Yeah,
Cincinnati at Buffalo Buffalo, also five and a half point favorite. Simon,
the public dog here is going to be Cincinnati, and

(56:08):
I really want to bet the Bengals. I want to
bet Joe Burrow. I want to bet against the Bills
coming off of what looked like a dominant win against
these Steelers. The Bills passing defense overall is middle of
the pack. I just alluded to it. The Bills passing
defense against wide receivers is truly atrocious. Third down conversion allowed,

(56:35):
they are twentieth passing success rate, they are nineteenth explosive
pass rate twenty second, and we can get into all
the fancy letters EPA, DVOA, yard per target allowed to
wide receivers are all twenty fourth or worse. But how
do I bet on a Bengals defense that cannot stop

(56:55):
the run against a team that just gained two hundred
and fifty yards.

Speaker 3 (56:59):
I feel a little bit as if the public's were
reacting a little bit to that Bengals win where, oh,
of course, as good as they did play, like give
him tons of credit, ed felt like everything was going
their way in that game between the refs and like
you said, how bad Littlemore played where he had tons
of opportunities he just cannot capitalize on. And you know, questioning,
I get why people are Christian Harba are not because

(57:19):
Derek Henry was getting whatever he wanted. They went away
from right away, like they just completely abandoned the run
where the run games need to be working. But I'll
hit you with all the trends I read about Joe
broke because I couldn't believe it where I said it
last week. We want to bet Joe as a dog,
especially when the number is big, and it worked out
last week for us, right I gave up stat he
was seventeen and three whenever this when he's an underdog

(57:40):
of three points or more. Now he's eighteen and three
right after coming last week, so we know if you're
just going to play him in these exact spots, it
is profitable.

Speaker 2 (57:49):
You know, he's shocking.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
They've only I guess it's not shocking because they're not
in the same division. But he's only played against his
Bills teams twice in his career.

Speaker 2 (57:58):
You know, I guess, well, no.

Speaker 3 (57:59):
They did play three times, but that one the one
game was the handling game, so it doesn't count.

Speaker 2 (58:03):
That's right, that's crazy.

Speaker 3 (58:05):
I didn't think of that, but he is two and
zero in those matchups against the spread as straight up,
so he's actually beaten Josh Allen both times has played
really well against him, and both times in those games
he scored twenty four or more. So, like Chad' kind
of alluded to here, even when the Bills had a
semi decent defense, Joe Burrows had his way with him
and he's played great against him. And I know there's

(58:26):
a lot of trends and stuff pointing me to back
of this Bengals team, but Chad just said, I just
think the same feeling I have with this Bill team.

Speaker 2 (58:31):
They played the Bucks couple weeks ago, which is it
was this huge dog.

Speaker 3 (58:35):
With a quarterback that people believed in, and he kind
of played up to it the whole game and then
he eventually got caught at the very end of it.
Where last week, I think it's a nice spot to
back where Josh Allen did not play well. I love
these type of games where he's after games he doesn't
play that great where we've seen, especially this year, he
just plays so well and bounces back.

Speaker 2 (58:52):
Especially at home at least type of matchups.

Speaker 3 (58:54):
So it's another game where like Chad said, the public
is coming in so heavy the Bengals can be patient.
I'm gonna bet it now that it's under six, especially
at hard Rock, this could keep getting hit, Like the
pros could come in with the public and bet this
down just because.

Speaker 2 (59:07):
Tons of Trend's favorite the Bengals team.

Speaker 3 (59:09):
Like Chet said, there's numbers that showcase how bad the
secondary is of this Spills team that teams like the Bengals.
I want to push the ball downfield shoulds excel against,
but I just think defensively they're gonna be in such
a struggle that Joe and Burrow has just two or
three three and outs.

Speaker 2 (59:24):
It's gonna be over. Like I just to me, this
is a Josh.

Speaker 3 (59:26):
Allen puts up forty two type of game and gets
back into the MVP type of conversation. So I know
it's a big number of people, and it's like, oh
my god, the guy just gave us the Ravens is
a favorite. Now he's against the Bills. But it's all
about the numbers, right. Both those numbers are under the
key number of six. I like playing that key number now.

Speaker 1 (59:42):
Matt Mitchell is only dreaming about exactly what you're talking
about happening as the King of Western New York gives
a shit.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
It's like pizza baby, It's good no matter what. There's
music in the air, shout yeah, shouting ou good time.
You know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (01:00:01):
Denver at the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are seven
and a half point underdogs. I don't want to bet
Bonix and the Broncos, his big favorites in the division.
I don't want to bet the Raiders, who just couldn't
cover a big dogs in the division against the QB
who literally broke his hand in the middle of the game.

(01:00:24):
So I have no opinion on this game.

Speaker 3 (01:00:26):
And I feel like we have so much bad Karmer
coming back from the Raiders, Like I I've.

Speaker 2 (01:00:32):
Had so many clips sent to me of them just
doing the CDs.

Speaker 3 (01:00:35):
Shit to Herbert in that game, like there was just
one player. Herbert's going out like hands a ball and
he runs off to the left. He's not even involved
in the play, and a guy comes sprinting in and
goes after the hand that's wrapped, like literally attacks his
hand that's wrapped when he's not even involved in the play,
and it's just like, oh my God, Like some of
these guys are just such.

Speaker 2 (01:00:54):
Pieces shit of this Raiders team. So I'm I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (01:00:57):
I don't know if I'm gon betting Bone Nicks at
this big of an like even looking at all of
the numbers. We talked about it, you know a little
bit on Sunday Night where it's like as much hay
you want to give Bo Nicks, he is clutched the
end of these games, like even in that overtime game
that was clutched drive by him once again, where it's
like he just does so many bad things that makes
us not believe in him, like me and Chad are
right now.

Speaker 2 (01:01:17):
But it's pretty wild.

Speaker 3 (01:01:20):
In his early career here as a favorite, he's fifteen
to one straight up in his career, Like that's that's
really impressive for a guy like him that this year
the books have overadjusted to it because I think last
year was eight and zero against the spread as a favorite.
This year they kind of knew that, right and that
they knew the public would kind of bet these numbers.
They've always bumped these games up by a point or two.
He is now two and six this season as a favorite. So,

(01:01:41):
but Chad ha just said is true. It's like, we
don't want to really bet in him as a big
favorite here at play at minus seven and a half,
And I totally get what you were saying, and I'll
probably end up on the Raiders, but I'm like, you know,
I'm going to put no row money to this game.
I'm just happy to put the Broncos into maybe a
couple of money like parlaser teasers and just not even
watch a second game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
Let's talk about the most important game in the history
of the world, the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay
Packers minus six and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:02:08):
Hungry Bears are violent Bears.

Speaker 1 (01:02:10):
Remember the other day when I said to you, Ben
Johnson taking his shirt off is something that will endear
him to Chicago fans forever, and like he truly understands
the spirit of the city and the connection the team
has with the city. Yesterday I got a picture sent
from one of my buddies in Chicago in the Chicago

(01:02:31):
tex Chain of a bunch of Bears fans in Bears
jerseys standing outside shoulderfield. And I don't know if it
was Ai or what, or if it was like they
quickly constructed like a statue of Ben Jonson flexing with
his shirt off in front of Soldier Field. That's how
much this guy means to the city right now and
how much he is connecting with the fans of the city.

(01:02:55):
Whatever that thing was, I loved it. I think it
was amazing. I think it captured of what he has
done so perfectly as a Bears fan, Like the belief
in him right now is so crazy. Last week I said,
how little respect can the Bears be getting if they
are six and a half point underdogs on the road

(01:03:16):
at the Eagles after a high profile, dominant win. They
are getting no respect as the number one seed in
the conference and they are six and a half point
underdogs on the road against an incredibly inconsistent team in
the Green Bay Packers are.

Speaker 3 (01:03:32):
There, like actual Green Bay Packers fans in Chicago is
that's super rare because obviously it's a close, but like,
you don't really see it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:39):
You never see it, never see it only if they're transplants,
because like some you know, overly ambitious cheesehead decides they're
going to go make it in the big city and
they moved to Chicago and they bring their packerdom. And
I say that with nothing but love as someone who
went to overnight camp for many many summers in the
Great north Woods of Wisconsin.

Speaker 3 (01:03:58):
Well, I just was working because Roger was your guys
daddy for so many years.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
I just years.

Speaker 3 (01:04:03):
I could imagine how in a place where you guys
are super friendly, Chicago, that's probably the one spot where
I could see people flipping a script if someone was
just repping Green Bay constantly. It's like, dude, do not
be repping Green Bay in our city right now. It's
been a long time, but we.

Speaker 2 (01:04:18):
Saw it last year. Caleb beat them in the final
week of the year.

Speaker 3 (01:04:21):
I mean it's I know that was a pointless game,
but that was some demon slaved there.

Speaker 2 (01:04:25):
But I don't know what to do with this one.

Speaker 3 (01:04:28):
Chad, Like, I'm with you, I want to be all
over this Bears team, but you.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
Also want to fade them because of everything I just said,
Like they couldn't be more peaku. And also what's scaring
me is I'm getting nothing in my feed right now.
Obviously there's a bias in any feed. I'm getting nothing
in my feed, but praise for how brilliant Ben Jonson's
run scheme is, Like we are so ready, we are

(01:04:55):
so primed for a massive, massive letdown.

Speaker 3 (01:04:59):
Yeah, and it's again it's a unique spot the Bears
have just they've been awful against the Screen Bay organization,
doesn't matter who their quarterback is, who the Green Bay
team is.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
I mean, I don't want to pain for read you
to the status.

Speaker 3 (01:05:13):
Chap, but I have to to give the people perspective.
Bears are one and eleven straight up against the Packers.

Speaker 2 (01:05:18):
They're one win.

Speaker 3 (01:05:19):
Was that when I just told you about last year
with Kayleb Williams in the final week of the year, where.

Speaker 2 (01:05:23):
Green Bay says they weren't trying, I feel like they
were trying.

Speaker 3 (01:05:26):
They felt like they were trying, and they got beat
straight up by that bearrassam that basic had quit for
the last eight weeks and then beat them in the
final weekend. It's shocking to the Packers in that run.
So they're eleven to one against this Bears team. They're
ten and two against the spread in that run. So
it's not like they've just been being you guys. They've
been covering even though everyone knows they've owned you guys,

(01:05:47):
and they they've been keep backing them. So this is
a really unique spot where you know, I talked to
a handful of book makers right now. They think the
Packers wind up being in need come Sunday because they've
taken so much Bears line bets and bets on them
the spread. Just I think everyone in the public saw
what we saw against that Eagles team, which is like, okay,

(01:06:07):
if they can be that downin on the run scheme,
it doesn't matter their quarterback is playing at a really
low level. I mean, I'm sure you saw the Ben
Johnson quotes him him taking shots at Caleb Williams. It
wasn't even really him taking shots, to be honest, It
was really him just speaking the truth. The guy asked
him a question and answer the truthfully. He basically just
said the gist of it was, we're not winning because
of our quarterback. We're winning despite because of our quarterback play,

(01:06:29):
which I talked coming of the year. This man is
a psychopath. He's going to be tough love with Caleb
because in his mind he doesn't feel like he owes
anything of Caleb.

Speaker 2 (01:06:37):
He's going to be putting him in his best position
to succeed.

Speaker 3 (01:06:40):
If Caleb doesn't keep growing and get better, I talked
about it, he will move on in two to three years,
he's going to be in Chicago.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
I mean even after this year.

Speaker 3 (01:06:47):
I just can you see when Ben Johnson went out
as welcome before Kayleb Williams, I can't, Like you said,
he feels way more connected to the city than Caleb
has in the past two years.

Speaker 1 (01:06:57):
Yes, it is Ben Johnson's town. This is Dicka like Euphoria.

Speaker 2 (01:07:04):
Want dick a stat, Give me a dick a stat.

Speaker 3 (01:07:08):
At seven and four, he is the best record against
the spread of any Bears head coach since Mike Dicka
started in nineteen eighty two.

Speaker 1 (01:07:17):
Dead coach.

Speaker 2 (01:07:18):
Just again, we talk all the time like.

Speaker 3 (01:07:22):
These teams eventually find the right coach that changes the organization.

Speaker 2 (01:07:25):
That's what it feels like with this Bears team. So
I'm I'm, I am.

Speaker 3 (01:07:29):
I can't believe another one be on another favorite here, Chad,
but I'm probably gonna end up on this Packers team
just because, like you said, it just feels like Euphori
on this Bears team is just a peak level And
it's just something about this Packers team where it just
every week like they got away with their cover last week.

Speaker 2 (01:07:45):
But it feels like a lot of that was because
of the refs and blah blah blah.

Speaker 3 (01:07:48):
But still when you watch them play, it's like, this
is such a well coached, good team. Like with the
floor they have a ton of talent, and the Bears
on the flip side, they've had so many injuries.

Speaker 2 (01:07:59):
I don't know how that's all held up together. It's
all worked out for him.

Speaker 3 (01:08:01):
Although then you guys just have a great offensive line
and that rum block and is just incredible.

Speaker 2 (01:08:05):
So if you're on the Bears, I totally get it.

Speaker 3 (01:08:08):
But it's another game where I'm probably I end up
on the Packers, but I hate myself for it.

Speaker 2 (01:08:12):
It's like, I want to be on the Bears so bad.

Speaker 1 (01:08:14):
I haven't bet this because I do want to be
on the Bears so bad, and you know, every fiber
of my being is telling me it's the wrong thing
to do. And then it's an emotional bet and then
this is exactly when well.

Speaker 3 (01:08:27):
This is how it happens, though, like you guys win
the division, this is the exact way it happens. You
don't see it coming another upset after you upset the egos,
like I just I see it for.

Speaker 2 (01:08:35):
This Bears Team's why I want to bet the Bears.
It's like I can see it, but.

Speaker 3 (01:08:38):
The part of me that's so boring is like, well,
same old Green Bay wins here, they win the division.
Green Bay is once again the division leader. But I
just I want to believe it with the s Bears team.

Speaker 1 (01:08:48):
I just want to watch this game and enjoy this game.
I want to be in Mike glory. I want to
put on my Bears gear and I just want to
be under my blanket and I just want to watch
the Bears, and I want it to end with enough
time for us to come up and do the show
and not be miserable. I don't want to watch it
while we're about to do the show. At seven point thirty,
the Los Angeles Rams are visiting the Arizona Cardinals. The

(01:09:13):
Cardinals are eight point underdogs at home. Right now, it's
come down was eight and a half. Cardinals have lost
seven games by four points or less this year. They've
lost one game by twenty two points in one game
by nineteen points. Both of those were in the Division,
one to the Seahawks, one to the forty nine Ers. Unfortunately,

(01:09:35):
those were two of the times in which we bet
the Cardinals. I think the only two times thinking that,
of course they're not getting the right value, they're not
being respected. And those are the games in which they
had probably seventeen turnovers in the first five minutes of
each game and then played come they were trying to play,
trying to come back the rest of the game. So

(01:09:55):
here we are. Are we getting the Cardinals who keep
games close? Are we getting the Cardinals who get blown
out by division opponents? And how does that impact our thinking? Like,
to me, this Cardinal team is so susceptible to everything
that the Rams do well. Their defense is fading Matthew

(01:10:16):
Stafford in a comfortable environment against depleted defensive backfield, Jacoby
Brissett kind of stationary against a very good pass rush,
and yet the Cardinals keep figuring out ways to do
it except division opponents.

Speaker 3 (01:10:34):
I know, I honestly thought it was one of the Cardinals.
My model had just said six and a half. So
it's like, okay, there's good value here on this Cardinals team.
But chatter our guy, Evan Abrams, he smacked me with
a dead fish, really woke me up. Dead fish, some
stank here. And it is December. It is Sean mcvay's month.
I quickly forgot that, and luckily for me, I haven't

(01:10:57):
posted all his stats. He is twenty five and eleve
and against the spread in December, and that just sounds
like a mcvay's stat because McVay he's just the best,
and this late of the year he gets his guys right.
So brutal, embarrassing loss last week makes me want to
bet McVay even more.

Speaker 2 (01:11:12):
Because this is the exact tip Spody bounces back.

Speaker 3 (01:11:16):
He basically owns the Cardinals. I just talked about green
Bay being Chicago's daddy. McVeigh is the Cardinals daddy big
time here and just all the stats are insane.

Speaker 1 (01:11:28):
In his career slapping the base big time, twelve and.

Speaker 3 (01:11:33):
Four against the spread, McVay when he plays Arizona on
the road in Arizona, McVay seven and one.

Speaker 2 (01:11:40):
Straight up and against the spread.

Speaker 3 (01:11:41):
In his career as a favorite in Arizona six and
zero straight up against the spread.

Speaker 2 (01:11:48):
So, oh goodness, we've just seen it.

Speaker 3 (01:11:50):
McVeigh has dominated the Cardinals through what is a three
different coaching hires. Since he's on this crazy run, he's well,
it's just funny. It's like you just see the dysfunction
of Arizona. That's what I side the Rams. He's been
to two Super Bowls and he's just owned them divisionally.
This whole run with McVeigh, and you know, we talk
all the time, there's just certain teams divisionally in matchup

(01:12:12):
with other teams that there's weird numbers and trends that
back it up. And it's really when you look into it,
it makes sense because it's how it's all about matchup
and scheme, and some teams just don't match up right
or scheme right against certain teams. And now it sounds
really stupid when I really dove into this one, it's
just because Arizona has literally never had any type of
lineback play, and you look into it, they've getten dominated

(01:12:33):
this matchup by outside runs and tight ends up the scene.
So it's like McVeigh has shown them every year what
he's going to do against them and they can't stop it.
And even more so this year they use twelve personnel
more than they have in the past. So it's even
more of a reason I like the Rams here because
in the past they've dominated this matchup when they weren't

(01:12:54):
running that many two tight end sets. This year that's
like their bread and butter. And we've seen that time
and time again every week. I mean, how many times
you see it on first down, that five yard dump
off to the tight end to the left, to the right.

Speaker 1 (01:13:05):
It's is twelve personnel, thirteen personnel. If they could it
would be fourteen personnel. Like they've gone four deep on
their tight ends this year. It's been one of the
new schemes and new sort of creative tacks that Sean
McVay has added to the to the game plan. It's
been great.

Speaker 2 (01:13:23):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:13:24):
So again it's it's like a weird thing where I
wanted to be on the Cardinals and I once again
I'm on another big favorite here. So so I's wrong
with this week? I'm getting I'm getting a little spooked
about it. But I just think it's it's a week
of Okay, our people are reacting to the best week.
Are people backing off this Rams team because of what
happened last week? And I would say it's gone the
other way, right. I talked a couple of pros. You've

(01:13:45):
come in pretty heavy on this Cardinals team. So a
couple of books out there. I did open this at
nine to nine and a half it's like we said,
it's down to eight and a half, eight at a
couple of books. So if you like, if you're like
me and you like the Rams, I'm gonna wait, see
what the pros do here and see if I can
get under to seven.

Speaker 1 (01:14:01):
Boy Rams, Packers, Ravens, Bills. Am I the only guy
who acts like a professional vetter on this show anymore?
Going with the Jets? Good lord, Let's talk about some
primetime games. We know everybody's gonna bet the prime time games.

(01:14:22):
These are the spotlight standalone island games that we love.
Houston and Kansas City Kansas City minus three at hard
Rock bet minus three and a half. In most places,
it's moved in the Texans direction. The majority of the
bets are the Texans, like the Bengals. I think this
is another one that is a public dog. Simon feels
like the right time to fade the Texans does.

Speaker 2 (01:14:45):
I feel like it's moved too much?

Speaker 3 (01:14:46):
And I talked a little bit about it on Sunday
night where I was like, I feel like I'm na
end up on the Chiefs and I said it was
four and a half. I was like, this much, I
gotta come down at a couple proceed other they're like, yeah,
I love Houston here, this is a great match for Houston,
especially defensively.

Speaker 2 (01:14:59):
How they up with this Chiefs team.

Speaker 3 (01:15:01):
And on the flip side, look, we've been talking a
little bit about this Chief's identity defensively just feels lost
right now, Like it feels like all year their defense
has not been We're used to his bags, like usually
they get better, especially by the time we get to December,
and they still have not improved the way we thought
they're going to. And that's just how football is so tough, Right,
you lose a couple of guys, you don't hit the
draft right, You're losing guys at key positions. You just

(01:15:23):
can't cover those up right teams that exploit those weaknesses.
So shocked, shocked the numbers move so much, honestly, so,
I don't know, chat. It feels like we're doing the
same thing we do with the Lions. We're betting on
past performance and what we think should be happening.

Speaker 2 (01:15:37):
It's just we are we all accepted.

Speaker 3 (01:15:39):
To me.

Speaker 1 (01:15:39):
The difference is the Chiefs have actually played well this year. Yeah,
they just been on the wrong side of the close games,
whereas the Lions haven't played well this year, and the
Lions have some clearly some clear issues and clear personnel
issues and clear holes in their roster. We can say
that the Chiefs have wholes and the roster, but they're

(01:16:00):
also running it more effectively than they ever have, and
they still have high performing players on defense, and they
still have Patrick Mahomes who's doing wildly creative things while
holding the ball for an exceptionally long period of time
and still being successful. So like, I get it, Like

(01:16:23):
I'm going to hold onto the Chiefs with my fingernails,
and I feel like right now at three the numbers
move too much.

Speaker 3 (01:16:33):
It has well, like we've been saying for what feels
like five years now, if it is three and a half,
that is the time you're supposed to go against Homes.
Like with the hook, it's been paying out and just
even these last three weeks, like I just said, they've
been losing these close games. All three of the games
were decided by three points. So I totally get.

Speaker 2 (01:16:51):
If you're like, Okay, well I'm getting the hook.

Speaker 3 (01:16:53):
All their games are close and ugly because again, they're
not that good of a team, this Chiefs team. Why
would you not just finally take this text team plus
three and a half. But we talked about we were
working with hard rock book here. We both want to
be on the chief So I'll take the three and
the Chiefs hope and pray maybe it gets to two
and a half. But it's another thing where if this
was last year, a couple of years ago, mean Chat
would be probably hammering this one. One of our bigger

(01:17:14):
bets would be in the Chiefs. I don't have that
type of confidence. They just unproven this year in one
score games. Like we talked about their one and five
this season, we knew there's gonna be a regression from
las year where I think they're eleven to one or
eleven to zero in one score games. This is like
next level, Like they've totally totally come back the other
way in one score game. So shits are going their way,
like we're playing the odds there. But you know, at

(01:17:36):
this number, this becomes the Chiefs number. But three and
a half, if you want to be on the Texans,
I'd grab it out because I do think the pros
are gonna bet that away. I don't see any three
and a half's being left by Sunday.

Speaker 1 (01:17:47):
Read all right, the Eagles and the Chargers, and the
Chargers are now two and a half point dogs. The
number has moved to three save Simon. Justin Herbert had
a hand surgery yesterday on Monday, and if I had

(01:18:08):
to guess, given what he has played through so far
in his career, he hasn't been ruled out and he
might not be ruled out, so I would expect him
to play. But is Justin Herbert's non throwing hand going
to be what determines whether or not we bet this game.
It's already moved in the Chargers direction.

Speaker 2 (01:18:26):
Which I can't believe.

Speaker 3 (01:18:28):
It's another thing where it's you know, a couple of
pros I talked to absolutely love this Chargers team, and
as an Eagles fan, it's like, oh my god, I'm
missing something here because I thought this would be a
great spot for this Eagles team and the fact that
we've seen it with this Chargers team, they just have
no offensive line. Every week he is running for his

(01:18:49):
life and you know, as much shit as you want
to give this the Eagles team, they've been getting after
quarterbacks their defense.

Speaker 2 (01:18:56):
What happened last week was they could not stop the run.

Speaker 3 (01:18:58):
So that's some of the Chargers can do, but you
expect after the Eagles got embarrassed when of the best
d season in the league, we'll get the guys right
for this Metrigans Chargers team. So I can't believe it
is what it is. I've taken a piece of this
Eagles team, especially now it's at two and a half,
because there is a possibility that Herbert does miss this game.
Like Chad said, he just got surgery yesterday on his

(01:19:18):
non thrown hand. Can he get a wrapped up, true
competitor with a psychopath coach put him in there? Yeah,
if anyone if this is the perfect team for that
to happen, Like Herbert the aultimate competitor with a coach
equal kind of thought process. They need this win just
so much Eagles do. They're fighting for their own playoff life.
So it's a really unique spot where it's like, I
kind of kind of like the Chargers, but it's about

(01:19:39):
the number. So plus three plus three and a half,
I was gonna be in the Charger, but now we're
under the number of the key number of three on
this Eagles team that you know, as bad as they've
been these last two weeks, right, these embarrassing losses. If
you keep going back before that, they've been finding ways
to win these close games all year. They've been playing
bad all year. It's just that's not fresh in people's
minds because they got blown out and embarrassing fashion last

(01:20:02):
week in standalone game, and the week before that they
had a total melt down against Dallas. So another game
where I'm not gonna go too heavy on it because
everything is just so off with this Egos team and
we're so late in a year here that you know,
it's a team that I would say probably should be
a minus four minus four and a half favorite to

(01:20:23):
most people's models, but they're this low just because of
what we talked about. It's all the off stuff, all
the mental stuff, is how everything is just so negative
around this team, this organization. Where on the flip side
of this Chargers team, you know that was a big
win last week, they really were in a dog fight
against a divisional opponent, and you know, I just another
team where it's like the Dallas and the Lions thing.

(01:20:43):
It feels like these are two teams going to opposite directions.
The Chargers, they even they're all banged up on their.

Speaker 2 (01:20:48):
Last leg they believe they can get that seventh seed.

Speaker 3 (01:20:51):
This Eagles team they feel like they know they're about
to collapse and fall out of the playoffs in Dallas
to steal the division. So it's it's an interesting game
and an interesting number here that you know, like I
just said, the two and a half, they're telling you, Herbert,
it's gonna play, So I'm going to take it out
just in case he doesn't. But it feels like it's
pretty telling you're in the week to Herbert will be
back for a Monday's.

Speaker 1 (01:21:10):
Game, Simon. In the first half of the show, we
were so sharp Washington plus one and a half, Simon says,
talking about the Jags plus two buying out of our
colts position. We talked about New Orleans plus nine, talk
about the Jets at plus two and a half chats Choice,
talked about the Browns, the Browns at home, and then

(01:21:34):
all of a sudden, we're Seattle where the Ravens, Where Buffalo?
Where Green Bay? Where the Rams? What happened to us?
All these games are going to be games that we
have to pick up again on Thursday once we get
some feedback and see how moves are trending. And see
who's going to be playing and who might be not

(01:21:54):
who might be sitting. This has been Sharper Square, part
of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on
YouTube on Thursday with the games We Are Zero and
Non Plus or our head Head Battles, Brass Balls, so
much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
Like the video, subscribe to the channel. Also download us

(01:22:15):
from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe,
leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift until next time. Love you.

Speaker 2 (01:22:28):
This isn't golling.

Speaker 1 (01:22:28):
You're not at our own. This is NFL, which stands
for not prolonged.

Speaker 2 (01:22:33):
When you make them goals, I'll be telling grocery

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