Sharp or Square - NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Packers-Bears, Rams-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Patriots-Chargers, Niners-Eagles, Texans-Steelers - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That we
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
show that makes the squares sharper. It makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman, I am joined
as I am every week. Buy my calls, my companion,

(00:22):
my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter, Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
It is a bitter sweet show. As it's over for
the regular season, look for us. Our contest keeps going
and the playoffs keep going and it only gets better.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
Here it's the best football of the year.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
And you know the deal as a team who a
fan of a team who's in the playoffs, and it's
anybody's game. When you make it to the you feel
that way. I know it's usually the best teams, but
you just want to get to the dance. You want
to at least get to the dance. And Yeah, when
I woke up yesterday after the Sunday games, I was like,
my god, they got it. Still got a team left
and some football left. Because it's it's just the best

(01:03):
feeling the chase. I mean, we got it. We got
a Bills fan here, guy who's lost four straight Super Bowls.
It's the best run of your life, but also can
be the most crushing and tone setting run of your life.

Speaker 3 (01:14):
But it's it's the best feeling.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Like I just can't belave the playoffs are here and
runneth all these matchups, all the conversation. The island's going
crazy to Bermuda, everything's going crazy right now talking NFL
with that weekend, it's it's it's the best right now.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
I uh, I'm in a little bit of football ecstasy
because on Friday night I will be in Atlanta to
watch the Indiana Hoosiers play the Oregon Docks in the
College Football Playoffs semi finals.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
I'm so happy you're going because that was hardbreaking for
you going to go to the Big Ten championship.

Speaker 3 (01:42):
So this makes up for it.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
Yeah, yeah, uh. You know, it's really about scheduling for
the show. Like it's just we during the football season.
We do show Tuesday, we do show Thursday, we do
a show Sunday morning, we do a show Sunday night.
It just makes it hard. And I don't live near
like anywhere I go from Connecticut, I fly to Herford.

(02:03):
It takes a full day to get somewhere because it
doesn't fly anywhere direct, it flies direct to Atlanta. So
and my buddy Matt, who I'm going with on the
night that they won their playoff game, He's like, listen,
I know you can get NonStop from Bradley to Atlanta.
We're fucking going, And he's right, and so we are.

(02:24):
We're going. And then I get back that night and
I'm sitting down to watch the Bears in the playoffs
play the Packers like it is going to be twenty
four hours of full football glory or pure agony. We
don't know which way it's going to go yet, but
that's also part of the fun. Simon. We went four

(02:46):
and one in the final weekend of our five favorite
picks for the regular season. We won with the Lions,
we won with the Rams, won with the Saints, and
in a thriller miracle of the year Game of the
Year Wow raw Ross Steelers home Dogs three and a half.
It's a theme that we're going to touch on today.
We lost with the Bengals, and we lost with the Bengals,

(03:08):
who lost to a QB who finished the game with
a twelve rating twelve QB rating and led an offense
that scored six points. I was going to let it go,
but then I saw this. You actually texted me, texted
me and Mitchell that some dude in the Circus Survivor contest.
The prize pool for Circa this year in their Survivor
contest was eighteen million dollars. Going into the final weekend,

(03:32):
there were six people still alive. Only one person lost
lost the chance to win three million dollars because that
person had the Bengals, And that brought it back for
me and made me put it in context. Felt much,
you know, less worse losing what I lost versus what

(03:54):
this guy lost. But then I saw a stat from
Aaron Schotz, who created DA and he put out a
graphic that basically said, the underlying metrics from that game,
the way the Browns won, should happen one percent of

(04:14):
the time, which makes it the sixth longest odds for
a team with those metrics compared to the team they
lost to to win in NFL history, the sixth least
likely outcome in NFL history for a team that played
as bad as the Cleveland Browns did. That is remarkable

(04:36):
and I feel for the guy who lost three million
dollars because of it.

Speaker 3 (04:41):
I love how you were just so in shock.

Speaker 2 (04:42):
Though I try to think the exact thing you just
read out loud here to you on Sunday night, I
think you just blew right through. You still complained about
the Bengals for another ten minutes.

Speaker 3 (04:52):
You think you got it bad.

Speaker 2 (04:53):
A guy lost three million on that kick. But yeah, man, Mitchell,
throw that record back up on the screen.

Speaker 3 (04:57):
It was a great year. Well we have five losing
week chat.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
It was insane a great year.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
I know the Internet people's brains are fried, Like I
still had people complaining and just saying crazy stuff. I
had this one guy going every week complaining. I clicked
on his profile and it's just him like propping up
busting with the Veneer guys, and it's like, dude, what
is going on? How are you gonna love those guys
and hate us. We're giving out real good picks and
working on our asses off. So yeah, five losing weeks chat,
I'll take it anytime and get it.

Speaker 3 (05:24):
Was a long season a grind. Obviously.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
The most disappointing part of that chart is there's no
five and zero weeks, which is always We're always that's
always the goal.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
Every week and we didn't get to this week.

Speaker 2 (05:35):
But yeah, it's chaotic start to the year and I'm
pretty happy it all worked out.

Speaker 3 (05:39):
Bro. It was.

Speaker 2 (05:39):
It was a fun, real fun season, and like I said,
I'm really happy to get the contest continues into the
playoffs year.

Speaker 3 (05:44):
Keep it rolling.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Started four and one, ended four and one, a lot
of three and two, thirteen winning weeks, five losing weeks.
Shout out to Chris Sampson on X who goes by
NFL Bets Tracker, because he has been updating how we
have done with all of our sort of named bets.
You know, Chad's Chad's Choice and Simon says and brass

(06:07):
Balls and Rock and a Hard Place. He's been updating
it all season long on Twitter, not just the five favorites.
So we went fifty one to thirty nine with the
five phaves. Our best winning percentage was Rock and a
Hard Place sixty one percent, Chad's choice one at a
fifty six percent clip. Simon says, wanted a thirty nine

(06:30):
percent clip, which you knew you had a bad run
in the middle there, Simon. Simon crushed me and had
to head fifty nine thirty five percent. What's least surprising
about this.

Speaker 3 (06:43):
Was that Sharper Square Sharp versus Square.

Speaker 1 (06:47):
That well, that was my point, my, my. The least
surprising thing to me is that rock and a hard
place one at a sixty one percent clip, because that's
Sunday morning, when we have nearly perfect information. Right, it's
the easiest time, easiest one to met to bet.

Speaker 3 (07:06):
At least you were nail on Tuesdays.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
Well, listen, the second the second best was you crushing
me in Sharp versus Square. This is the biggest one
in the history of our show. And to me, I
think the fact that we named it sharp versus Square
it was a self fulfilling prophecy. I am going to
tell myself, I just had to lean into the idea
that I had to be as square as possible in

(07:29):
order for this to work. So maybe I sand back myself.
That's what I'm talking about.

Speaker 3 (07:34):
Titans too many times. That was probably your issue.

Speaker 1 (07:37):
It totally It can be all right. Looking at the
leaderboard in our Sharper Square Pro Football Pick Them contest,
six entries are currently tied at twenty points. Nikki abs
maybe he's doing the peloton workouts like I am and
the Big Why, which also happens to be my local
grocery store.

Speaker 3 (07:53):
I'm the big guy Big Why.

Speaker 1 (07:55):
Big Why Big Why Big wy just down the street
from me. They're at the very top. Four more slates
until we crowned champion. Good luck to everyone playing. Also,
since we're going through season roundups Simon, we got to
thank Matt Mitchell, who came into the show shortly after
we launched, didn't miss a beat from the old days,

(08:19):
kept us rolling the whole freaking season, organized the contest
working with our friends at hard Rock Bet, which is
not an easy thing to launch in the middle of
a season. We got to thank our friends at the
Volume for helping us launch a spectacular show that got
bigger after we left our old platform started a new

(08:40):
show with a new name. So if that's the case,
we also have to think everybody who came with us,
everyone who joined us this season. We're only doing it
because we like working with each other, the three of us,
and because we love the interaction we get with our audience,
the good, the bad, and the ugly. We're super grateful

(09:01):
that everyone's stuck with it all through the regular season.
We're going to keep rolling into the wild.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
In our favorite Uncle Colin Colin Coward, best season ever
Blize in five What a coincidence?

Speaker 3 (09:13):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
I don't know, I don't know, reflected glory, I don't know.
This is our Tuesday Wildcard weekend show, So we're going
to review the entire slate of games. Because of his
playoff season, we will include totals in the conversation. Those
are also included in the contest. Also, because the schedule
of games is wacky, we adjust our weekend programming as well.

(09:36):
So we got the Tuesday show, we got the Thursday show.
This weekend, we will do a Saturday morning show because
we want to get ahead of all five games, and
then we will do a Monday review show and then
right before kickoff of the Texan Steelers, so we'll review
what happened over the weekend and then preview Texans Steelers.

(09:57):
The next weekend. We'll do a Saturday morning before the
divisional and a review show on Sunday night. After Again,
we'll remind everybody, but don't forget. That's what we're doing.
New schedule. Get all the shows Sharper Square YouTube subscribing
like this video Donald from apple Pots, Spotify, wherever you
get your pods. Here we go, Saturday, January tenth, four
to thirty pm Eastern Los Angeles Grams at the Carolina Panthers.

(10:21):
The total is forty six and a half. Contest includes
totals for all games.

Speaker 3 (10:29):
In my mind, I'm long cal Line.

Speaker 1 (10:36):
Simon. It's like a dream come true. We get to
talk about the Panthers and Bryce Young in the playoffs.
It feels like vindication and validation for us after so
many years backing this team. We've been loving them. I'm
telling you right now. Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock

(10:57):
that Los Angeles Rams minus ten wow and.

Speaker 3 (11:03):
Minus my favorite boom. Are you sure you want to
do this? Are you willing to make a choice? A
choice we can't run from a sharp dues can just
see it, you know what I mean?

Speaker 1 (11:19):
Shocker, I know this is crazy. It's against type, it's
against the team that I love. I got some logic
before I get into it. I do want to hear
your thoughts on my bet because we haven't talked about it,
and it's going against everything we do and everything we've
done with this Panthers team.

Speaker 3 (11:41):
A little bit.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
Uh yeah, it's it's it's tough free for me right now.
I told you I'm probably waiting to before I put
a lot of money to this one until I know
what those status is about the Adams, and you know,
it's a type of game where you know, I get
why you're doing it. We both agree that are a
much better team. And I obviously have a ton of
stats the favorite the Rams that we're about to run

(12:04):
through here. But yeah, I'm shocked here it's your favorite
bet so far over the weekend.

Speaker 1 (12:11):
I'm a little bit too. Part of it is it's
like it's hard to choose on a Tuesday of playoff week.
I'm all of the stats that you're talking about, the
advanced analytics point to this Rams team as being probably
the best team in the playoffs based on what they

(12:33):
do offensively, what they do about defensively, the strength of
their schedule, who they beat, how they won. So that's
number one. I think that we're getting a little bit
of value here because don't forget when these guys played
at the end of November, November thirtieth, the Rams were
ten point favorites on the road at the Panthers. So

(12:54):
what this is saying to me is that everything is
power rated the same and in that window, the Rams
have continued to perform really well. The Panthers have been Okay,
they didn't beat the Bucks, they didn't win the week before,
like they got blown out in a really bad game
against the forty nine ers. So I feel like there's

(13:18):
a little bit of value on the Rams. And then
we have to take into account, which is that this
past weekend was it a good Bryce Young game or
was it a bad Bryce Young game? Because you generally
want to go against his most recent performance and his
last game twenty four to thirty five to two sixty six,
two touchdowns in a game they easily could have won

(13:40):
in a hurricane on the road, included some classic Bryce
Young bombs, So isn't he due for a stinker?

Speaker 2 (13:52):
Some of my thoughts, Yeah, I just I honestly thought
we maybe would be end up on the Panthers this week.
That's why I'm shocked to hear so early in the week.
You love the Rams this much, But it's a crazy team.
This Panthers team where it's never happened for our team
has never never won a game as a favorite and
then made the playoffs that season in the Super Bowl air.

(14:13):
This has never happened for this Panthers team. Every game
they won this season was as an underdog. I went,
but they go eight eight wins as an underdog, and
they never won as a favorite, and they somehow made
the playoffs with a losing record and insanely horrible point
there where they over minus sixty nine points point differential, Like,
it's just insane this Panthers team.

Speaker 3 (14:32):
To make it.

Speaker 2 (14:33):
It's because the division is, like you're saying, it's a weak,
bad division, Panthers being powered at this number.

Speaker 3 (14:40):
I have it at eight.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
So once again, like my Mona does favorite Panthers here,
but it's I think it's because DeVante's out and the
numbers happened skewed a little bit where if he was in,
I mean he still led the league in touchdowns with
fourteen touchdowns, he didn't play for the final three weeks,
So that's gonna choose the number.

Speaker 3 (14:55):
A little bit.

Speaker 2 (14:56):
Like the Rams lost two really important games in that stretch, right,
and the really shifted their view of this team. And
it's like, yeah, you can't make an excuse for a
staff for losing the number one guy, but he lost
him in the worst spot, like him in that Seattle
game would have been a difference, right him being injured
for that game or coming up lame as was a
big deal. So waiting on DeVante is the big one.

(15:16):
But let's run through all the crazy numbers. I mean,
that's the best part of playoffs. You really can focus
in and look at all the different trends and the
different stats just for these final six games.

Speaker 3 (15:27):
The biggest one for this one is how often has
this happened? Right?

Speaker 2 (15:31):
A ten point home dog in the Panthers. It's historical.
This is like the biggest home dog we've had in
like twenty five years. So it's a really really weird
spot for just the Rams and the fact that you
know they're now gonna be one of the biggest favorites
we've seen the wildcard round.

Speaker 3 (15:47):
Wildcard round usually you just blindly bet dogs.

Speaker 2 (15:49):
If you just taken the dog every year in every
game since twenty twenty two or twenty twenty two thousand
and two, you are sixty one percent just blindly betting
the dogs than wildcard round. So it's just you don't overthink.
You kind of want to lean to the dogs in
these spots. But it's kind of interesting that the Panthers
already beat the Rams, and if you go through stircle data,

(16:12):
if they played the twelfth game or later and the Panthers,
you know they beat them, was that week thirteen or fourteen.
If they're playing the same team again and they're a
dog again, the favorite is seven to two against the
spread in that exact spot, covering the spread by seven
points per game. So you know there are long term
trends that do favor of the Rams. And you know,

(16:33):
I right away, I was thinking to myself, what is
mcveigh's stats, because I give him all the time, right McVeigh,
he dominates late in the season. We talked about that
December run. The other thing we've talked about too is
him as a big road favorite. He's just been incredible,
especially against the spread. You know a lot of people
ask if it's just safe for going money line. Obviously
we're talking spreads here, that's what we do on the show.

(16:55):
Straight up, though, McVeigh is a favorite on the road
thirty four and ten, you know, not shocking spread though,
twenty six and eighteen against the spread, which is really impressive.
When he's a faired above four points on the road.
He's nineteen and two straight up in his career ATS
twelve and nine. Still though, that straight up number is insane. Yeah,

(17:16):
I know someone like me that's making a couple of
really big bets the Rams, I'm gonna I'll be that fish.
I'll throw them in a couple of big bets money
line wise, just to eat some of the juice. Because
it's it's crazy how Dominic McVay is against really bad teams.
And we've talked a little bit about Stafford. You know,
he struggled this season against bad teams. If you look

(17:38):
at his record. I mean, people know he lost to Atlanta's.

Speaker 1 (17:41):
Got He's got to play with his food. Yeah, that
is the one thing that is concerning me. Like they
played with their food with Arizona. They played with their
food with Tennessee in September, right, and they didn't blow
them out until late in the game. They played with
their food with the Niners when the Niners we're down.
So many guys ended up losing that game and that

(18:02):
had an impact on their seating. There have been moments
stretches where Stafford and McVeigh they sort of disappear for
about a quarter. That is a definite concern here.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
And I'm gonna be hitting you guys with this stat
in a couple of different games, but I talk about
every year.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
It's an easy money maker.

Speaker 2 (18:23):
A few lazy betters quarterbacks with playoff experience over his
quarterbacks without playoff experience twenty thirty nine and one against
the spread. So Bryce Young in this spot, if you
bet on him, it's a thirty four percent cover rate.
Like it's just a first time stars against these quarterbacks
doesn't work out even straight up it's twenty and forty,

(18:43):
so even more so, it's it's just terrible, terrible odds for.

Speaker 3 (18:47):
These quarterbacks making their first start.

Speaker 2 (18:49):
So we're gonna go through all the games obviously, but
this goes to Bryce Young against Stafford Gaylea Williams against
Jordan Love, and Drake May against Justin Herbert. So just
blindly taking those quarterbacks ats wise is just a money maker.
You're getting a sixty six percent win rate in playoff
super since the Super Bowl er, So it's a crazy stab.

(19:09):
But we talk all the time experience it does matter,
especially with quarterbacks that have won before in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (19:17):
Any thoughts in the total forty six and a half.

Speaker 3 (19:20):
Yeah, really, love.

Speaker 2 (19:21):
There's people are gonna see a pattern here. I love
the unders this week. We talk all the time. What
you're always looking for is playoff outdoors like that's usually
get some weather, usually get a little bit of coldness.

Speaker 3 (19:34):
For especially these West Coast teams coming east.

Speaker 2 (19:37):
Uh, they have to get you know, adjusted to that
that it's just different playing in thirty degrees rather than
temper control seven degrees like we all know. And this
weekend all six Wildcard games our outdoors. Another if you've
just been blindly betting outdoor unders since two thousand and
four in the Wildcard games forty nine and twenty three,
so sixty eight percent win rate if you just blindly

(19:58):
bet these unders since thousand four outdoors, so you know
even better if the total is above forty one in
those outdoor games, jed the under is forty two and
fourteen in the Wildcats.

Speaker 3 (20:10):
Yes, so I know.

Speaker 2 (20:12):
There's there's a bunch of games where I initiate was like, oh,
I'm gonna love these overs. This is one right away
where I was like, oh my god, this is below
forty eight. Don't fall for it. Take the under forty
six and a half. You could easily see Bryce shaw
laid a toll egg and this be a twenty four
to seven type of win for this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (20:28):
Well, Milman's hoping, so Chad's choice.

Speaker 2 (20:31):
I'm too jed, honestly. If the man Dadams it's cleared,
I think you might be ahead of it. This could
easily jump another point, So I don't hate you probably
getting the best the number here. I'm just gonna be
patient just in case he does get clear. This drops
down a nine and a half.

Speaker 1 (20:42):
Or nine all right. Saturday nights, eight pm Eastern, Amazon Prime,
Green Bay Packers visiting the Chicago Bears. The Bears are
currently a one point favorite. The total is forty six.

Speaker 3 (20:58):
Chic Cargo, Chicc, go that toddle in town, Chicago, Chicago.

Speaker 1 (21:06):
I will show you around.

Speaker 3 (21:09):
I love it.

Speaker 1 (21:10):
Look it's been it's been jumping around. It's gone from
Packers plus one and a half to Bears plus one
and a half. It feels like there is a complete
and total divide in the professional betting community right now
on this game, because it seems to move with every
every bet moves it one way or the other. The

(21:32):
total is forty six. Like I said, so, based on
all that and the fact that it's going to be
outdoors and cold. Even that feels a little bit high
to me. So we know we're going to like the
under in this game. But I have I can't get
I can't get to a consensus opinion in my head
on this game. The one thing I'll say is that

(21:53):
the Bears have only been in these games because of
miraculous comebacks in the third and fourth quarters. Otherwise, the
Packers have dominated these games. Dominated, And that says something
to me.

Speaker 2 (22:08):
Well, if you're lost, buddy, I just gave you, literally
just gave you that stat you should just blindly fill here.

Speaker 1 (22:13):
Yeah, exactly. And I also I would say, like I
wrote down a note here money line parlay on the Rams,
the Packers and the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (22:23):
But yeah, it's we're watching history.

Speaker 2 (22:26):
This is truly a history where this is the oldest
rivalry in football and they've only played in the playoff
two other times. I was shocked to see that. That
shout out to Bill Simmons who gave that out. I
couldn't believe that. I was like, I have to look
this up. There's no way this man is right right now,
he's right. The last time they first time, first time
they played in the playoffs nineteen forty one, the second

(22:47):
time twenty ten. Chad probably don't remember that nineteen forties
one because the Bears won, but he remember the twenty
ten one where the Bears beat him twenty one to fourteen.
I think was that Jake Culer who got Ye the game?
Pretty yeah, crazy crazy, You guys have only met three
times in the playoffs. I really that blew my mind.
So yeah, the oldest graveling in football has just been

(23:10):
owned by the Packers, and you know it's a new
error with Ben Johnson, you guys are given your best.
I've talked about it though. Eventually it was going to
swing the other way, the pendulum. You just kept getting
away with it all season. You kept stealing these games
the end of the games, and it felt like Detroit
it was going to happen. I don't know about you,
but I if San Francisco felt it was gonna happen,
Detroit fall was going to happen.

Speaker 3 (23:30):
It felt like you finally was going your way.

Speaker 2 (23:32):
And both times Caleb couldn't bring up the magic right
that thirty and ten or whatever it was against the lines.

Speaker 3 (23:39):
You couldn't make it happen.

Speaker 2 (23:40):
What was the three seconds left or two's left with
the San Francisco game, you had a guy you just
missed him. So could have work out for you for
the Bears, Chad, I think it can. But I can
tell you the pros I've talked to and the way
I'm leaning.

Speaker 3 (23:54):
Is really towards the Packers.

Speaker 2 (23:55):
It's just the exact team you want to be backing
here that they rested everybody. The Bears had a full
on brawl last week. Their defense played what sixty snaps
and just got abused up and down the field. Now
in a short week against arrested Green Bay team, I mean,
the hope will just be Green Bay. It's just been
such dogshit. I mean, where they've lost four or five straight,

(24:16):
they've been.

Speaker 1 (24:16):
Well, they've lost three straight. Josh Jacobs banged up obviously,
Tucker Craft hasn't played for a while. Receivers are in
and out, Jordan Love out of the protocol, No Micah
cart no Micah Parsons. Like, there's reasons why they've faded
at the end of the year, you know, And so
even if they are trying to get healthy and rested
a lot of guys, they're still not the Packers team

(24:37):
that everyone thought was one of the better rosters throughout
most of the year.

Speaker 2 (24:42):
Yeah, and that's why I'm just expecting all the money
and everybody just to come in very heavy on this
Bear side.

Speaker 3 (24:48):
So you can get the.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
Plus one and a half on Green Bay, I'll grab
it now. But like this is the game I'm not
I haven't met a lot of money into. Obviously I
have the best in the under. The under leave opened
at forty seven or forty six, and it's dropped already
down to forty five and a half for forty six.
So just another like I said outdoor, under blindly betted
one of these quarterbacks is going to lay in total

(25:11):
leg and Jordan Love could come out after not playing
after a couple of weeks and fall flattening on his
face and just be terrible. Caleb Williams, we just saw
him do nothing for three quarters against the lines last week,
a secondary that is riddled with injuries. So you know,
this Packers team, they lost Micah, they lost the pass rush.
Like there, this is a winnable game for the Bears.

(25:31):
It's just I feel like it's it's this the hardest
thing ever for that that first time quarterback in the
playoffs to get used to the speed and the indifference
of compared to the regular season. It's just simply different. Every
player you've ever talked to always says it is simply different.
That that's that I gave out back set up right.
These first time quarterbacks twenty and forty their last sixty

(25:51):
starts straight up. So it's just a brutal start for
the Bears. Here obviously is the two seed. You would
hope to get some roll team in the seventh seed.
It's you guys are in the toughest division. You have
the deal, right, everyone was above five hundred. Unfortunately you
got the Packers in this historical RIVALI so I'm interested
what the pros you're gonna do. I was warfos come Thursday.

(26:13):
But because city here right now, early money for me.
Chad's give me in that Green Bay plus one and
a half. It's Chica, Chica.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
Sit Cogle.

Speaker 2 (26:28):
Time.

Speaker 1 (26:36):
Sunday games January eleventh. Open up the slate with the
Buffalo Bills at the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jags are one point
underdogs at hard Rock, honestly one and a half at
most other places. Total is fifty two.

Speaker 4 (26:54):
Fasten your seat belts. It's playoff time. Ready to get
it on in an AFC wild Card and the road
to the super Bowl starts here. The Bills will have
to travel the long way to get to the super
Bowl this year, they will have to go on the road. So,
as I said, fasten your seatbelts, it's time to play football.

Speaker 3 (27:12):
On what.

Speaker 1 (27:17):
Matt Mitchell's confidence in this game? And he has mentioned
it a few times and in our pre show chats,
he's honestly making faces that are so dismissive of the Jags.
Do you know what I mean? Like, have you've seen it?
Like he's scrunching up his eyes, He's like, come on,
come on, what are we talking about here? We're talking

(27:38):
about a Jacks team that's overrated and the Buffalo Bills
with a MVP quarterback. Like he's projecting so much confidence
right now it almost makes me uncomfortable.

Speaker 2 (27:52):
Work hard. It's another game. It's just these are the
only two games. I'm really waffling. Other games. I'm very dug,
you know, but this one here, I wanted to be
on the Jags. And it's like and when I went
to bed then I woke up and thinking what am
I doing what am I doing to go against Josh Allen?
Thank god, though I have a team of nerds that
could hit me with all these stats to kind of

(28:13):
pull me back and why we do love this Jaguars team.

Speaker 3 (28:16):
But yeah, Matt's confidence.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
I love it because it's so north Northeast by so
if I like where, it's just we're poopooing these Southern teams.

Speaker 1 (28:23):
It's a Southern teams. Yeah, these teams aren't tough. They don't.
It's like they're playing seven on seven in Jacksonville.

Speaker 2 (28:32):
But yeah, we we talk all the time about Josh
Allen in the playoffs right where he's at home against
bad teams, we hammer them. I mean last year, where
do they get the Broncos and they just smacked them
around that first round. Unfortunately for them, you know, they're
not up there, they're not at a sweet oed Orchard

(28:52):
Park Lane. They're they're they're down to Florida and Josh
Allen in the playoffs and his career on the road,
oh un forced it up and I guess has spread. Yikes,
I had no idea said beat Now, I guess that's
a Mahome staff. My god, that's that's pretty rough.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
So it's that's entirely Mahomes. I'll tell you right now.
What's what's funny about this is, you know, we put
notes in a script and whatever. Matt Mitchell. The amount
of times he put notes in the script on actual
games that we're talking about over the course of this season,
I can't even I don't know that it's ever happened.

(29:32):
And yet in the script, I have so many notes
about the Bills dominance in the playoffs. I cannot tell you.
Seven consecutive seasons in the playoffs, most in the NFL
since twenty twenty versus Kansas City OHO to four. So
there's your four scoring twenty eight points per game, giving
up thirty five points per game, versus all other teams

(29:53):
seven and one scoring twenty eight giving up nineteen. The
defense gives up half the point versus teams that are
not read and Mahomes. So clearly there's someone in the
scrap two's who's leaning into the Bills.

Speaker 3 (30:10):
Which she should.

Speaker 2 (30:12):
But yeah, like the other josh An staff, yeah, you
could say it's a lot of Mahomes.

Speaker 3 (30:15):
But he also doesn't really cover in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (30:17):
Right his career, he's five eight against the spread in
the playoffs in his career. So it's you know, that's
that's just not a mahomestad. He doesn't cover against other
teams as well. But you know, the Bills, they just
have not been good on the road. They've lost eight
straight games in the playoffs on the road. Once again,
I get it, it's been the defense that let them down.
This defense is terrible. They don't have a number one receiver.

(30:38):
This Jags team has been putting up in a scene
amount of points. So this just feels like the exact
game that you know, if Josh Allen was a two
point dog or a three point dog. Yes, all over it.
It's gonna be a back and forth game. Whoever's the
ball last is gonna cover?

Speaker 3 (30:53):
He's not.

Speaker 2 (30:54):
He's a favorite on the road here and he might
be banged up, Like we don't have all the infos,
so like another game on wallfing on, but being towards
the dog, being towards the Jags, and just you know,
they're just more complete team. They do have a defense
that can get stops. That to me is gonna the
ultimate matchup here. Can they stop Cook like the leading
rusher in the NFL with one of the best old

(31:14):
lines in the Bills. That's their biggest weapon. They can
run the ball, control the clock, never let Lawrence goin
do a rhythm. That's definitely how the Bills win this,
right because of their defense. We've seen it, right, they
get one or two plays that flips the whole game,
because that's all Josh Allen needs. He needs one or
two plays from his defense, and that just gives him
such a boost where you know, like you just read

(31:35):
all those stats every time in the playoffs, he needs
to put up thirty five points and it's no different here,
Like this is gonna to me, it's the one game
I've taken the over, so people.

Speaker 3 (31:45):
Aren't gonna be shocked. I'm going all under on the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (31:47):
But there's a reason this game is fifty one, Like
the totals fifty one and a half, and I'm gonna
tick that over. I just think it's gonna be a
total shootout here. So yeah, I'm really excited for And
if you are like me and you're a little scared
to bet against Josh Allen, you're waving a little bit.

Speaker 3 (32:03):
I have just invested in the Jacks first half.

Speaker 2 (32:05):
This is a Billston We've been talking to hear about
Josh Allen gets down by fourteen points, we bet Josh
Allen at that point. It's been no different this season.
They're five and twelve against the spread.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
In the first half. They've just been terrible.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
So if you want to do the coward way and
avoid the full game, I don't mind going Jacks first
half either.

Speaker 1 (32:24):
Now Matt Mitchell is just talking trash in the scrant
He's saying, I'm sure the Jacksonville Jaguars will tree Buffalo
like they're just December schedule of the corpse of the
Indianapolis Colts and the Jets. So we know where Matt
Mitchell is. He's running into the window right now. This
is it, brother, This is it. Four thirty PM game Sunday,
San Francisco forty nine Ers at the Philadelphia Eagles. On

(32:46):
Sunday night, you were talking about the Eagles at minus three.
Definitely the biggest move of the week so far, of
any game. It's moved up to four and a half.
It's at four hard rock totals forty five.

Speaker 5 (32:59):
Philadelphiavania. A true Philadelphia fan learns daboo before.

Speaker 3 (33:04):
He learns to speak.

Speaker 5 (33:06):
Each Sunday they turn out, many sitting in seats they
inherited from their parents.

Speaker 4 (33:11):
You know, our fans come from great stock, and they'll
fight you.

Speaker 1 (33:15):
They'll fight you, they'll tell you if you're not doing
a good job.

Speaker 3 (33:18):
But they won't let anybody else bow us.

Speaker 1 (33:20):
When they're there, they're going to help us win the game.
Niners defense was already in bad shape. Now Tatum Befume
is out with a groin tear. He's going to be
out for the playoffs. But to me, this is really
all about Trent Williams. The Niners are just a different
team when Trent Williams plays. We've done the stats for
so many years about when Trent Williams plays, this team covers,

(33:42):
this team wins when he does not play because they
are so relyant on his dominant run blocking ability. They
are just a different team. We saw it against Seattle
the other night and when he went out by the way,
when it was official, the line jumped from one and
a half to three. So you know, if he's playing,

(34:04):
I think it's a bit of a different number. I
don't want to The Eagles rush defense hasn't been great
this year, but I kind of feel like that's a
you can answer this better as an Eagles birdwatcher, but
I don't buy into those stats because I also think

(34:24):
the Eagles pass defense is so dominant in the secondary
that teams just run the ball. More teams ran the
ran the ball more against the Eagles than any other
team this year in the NFL. So a lot of
those are gross numbers. You're gonna have bigger gross numbers
when and I mean gross versus net, not gross gross,
when the team is always running the ball. So I'm

(34:47):
waffling here. I know you love the Eagles.

Speaker 3 (34:49):
Take it away, Yeah, I love him. Upset.

Speaker 2 (34:53):
I was trying to hide it open. I mean, I
gave out a little bit that was gonna be on them.
But I can't believe this number bloom owned up like
it did. I thought the public would be all over
the Niners and a lot of pros, but been a little.

Speaker 3 (35:05):
Bit of buy back.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
I saw a couple of books touch five, came back
down a four and a half, and now a couple
of books are back to fourth.

Speaker 3 (35:12):
So yeah, I love this matchup with the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (35:14):
Team like the Seattle Seahawks and the Eagles aren't really
not that much different when you really break it down, especially.

Speaker 3 (35:21):
When you grade it out.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
The Eagles are better, Like if they just had an
OC they would be a better team. They're more the
most complete team, and you could say, well, their run
De French struggled. Glen Carter was basically playing with two
torn pecks for about six weeks there and they couldn't
stop the run. Since he's been back, he's looked like
his old self and you know, he say he's gonna
get the series. In the off season, whatever they did
to fix his shoulders, you can you can know what's

(35:45):
what different, especially the run defense with him and Jordan Davis,
who you know, Jordan Davis probably be All Pro him
self this season, had a really dominant season. The only
reason he might not get is because obviously Seahawks have
two dominant All pros themselves in the d line. But
for this game here, I immediately thought, Okay, people are
going to overreact to this Eagles team because they've just

(36:06):
not trust them all season. Where I've talked about it,
they always have done this every year in a sense
that Jalen Hurts does not go on. I know it
sounds bizarre, but he just never lays his body in
the line. During the regular season, and he does in
the playoffs. I mean, Nolan's ever gonna say he's a
top five running quarterback NFL history, but they simply forget

(36:26):
that in the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
He is that guy.

Speaker 2 (36:29):
And he's his first time in Super Bowl he set
the record for rushing quarterbacks with seventy yards, and he
broke it the next time in the Super Bowl with
seventy two rushing yards. It's just he's a different player
in the playoffs. He just uses his body. He always
will take it down and run it and fight for
those extra yards. And this is a defense that, like
you've talked about or we've talked about, they have the
worst pass rush in all football. They have the least

(36:50):
amount of pressures and sacks this entire season NFL. And
you know, as much good grace you want to give
the Seattle to Sam Darnold, they really just ran the
ball down their throats here, and you think Saquon be
able to do that as well.

Speaker 3 (37:03):
So you know, look at the numbers.

Speaker 2 (37:05):
Jalen hurts at home in the playoffs five and zero
straight up in his career, four and one against the spread,
winning those games all like twenty one points per game,
you know, in his career, so including the regular season,
hurts thirty one and five straight up at home when
he's a home favorite in December or later, thirteen.

Speaker 3 (37:23):
Oh one straight up in his career at home.

Speaker 2 (37:25):
So he just dominates to win these games. On the
flip side of Rock Purty, who's you know, been a
great quarterback.

Speaker 3 (37:31):
We've talked a little about it.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
He's a weird guy where when he's a dog, the
books I went against it last week with him against Seattle,
the books are telling a little bit that Bertie Perty
struggles as a dog, especially against good defense. In his career,
every time he's a dog is against a top fight
rated defense, which if you look at all the metrics
of the season, the Eagles did finish top five and these
amounts of points, giving up the yards, all of it,

(37:52):
Eagles were a top five graded defense pretty his career,
zero one to four straight up against the spread as
a dog in this exact game against top five defenses,
failing to cover the spread by almost twelve points per game.
So Perty just does not play well against dominant defense
like that. And you saw you talked a little bit
of Trent last week. I think the biggest thing I
knew this was McCaffrey just looked slow. He looked banged up,

(38:14):
and he looked like a guy that's had what four
hundred and fifty touches this season. I mean, he was
a couple you know, maybe it was fifty yards away
from a thousand thousand yard season and he had almost
one hundred catches, so you know, you saw a catch
up to him. He just carried the load. And it's
really wear and tear. So they're playing a rested team
against this Eagles team, and this Niners had an all
out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I totally

(38:37):
get why the pros have come in so heavy on
this Eagles team. And I'm gonna grab it now. I
think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson
gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back
again to five and maybe close at six. And this
is why I love this week so much. This is
the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy?
Eagles minus four. It's just this season was so good

(38:57):
in this playoffs, it just lined up that way with
these home teams.

Speaker 3 (39:01):
Eagle's the biggest favorite is minus four it's crazy.

Speaker 1 (39:04):
The best the number was three. You don't mind it
at four? What is your ceiling for betting.

Speaker 3 (39:10):
This with Lane Johnson, I have this said six and
a half?

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Wow, all right, but.

Speaker 2 (39:16):
Again that's not that shocking just because this fore and
iis team. You just said they're decimated with injuries. So yeah,
they whooped all these really bad defense. You saw Susy
run to a legit defense. That was shocking. I can't
I still can't believe Prettily put up three points. That
was truly shocking. But yeah, the Eagles defense obviously not
as good as Seattle, but like you said, one of

(39:38):
the best, one of the best pass defense in football
this season has been the Eagles, So it's gonna be
a treat test for Purtier on the road.

Speaker 1 (39:44):
Uh again, the total is forty five.

Speaker 3 (39:49):
Hammer that under, hammer that under.

Speaker 1 (39:52):
Last game on Sunday the Los Angeles Chargers plus three
and a half visiting the New England Patriots. I will
refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we
were talking about the Patriots. I can't wait to fade
the Patriots in the playoffs. We know the trends you've
mentioned at the top about first year quarterbacks in the

(40:13):
playoffs against veteran quarterbacks. We bet, we bet the Chargers
on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one
of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved, no
juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is
forty six. We're on the Chargers even though they're their
offensive line is decimated, and we know that the Patriots

(40:36):
are getting totally healthy. I think we're just back in
a veteran quarterback here and fading the team that has
been getting a lot of flat for playing in a really
easy schedule all year.

Speaker 2 (40:49):
Yeah, and you're not lying like I I every time
I go through these Chargers offensive line grades, just fucking
run blocking, just of it.

Speaker 3 (40:58):
It's crazy how bad they are. They are.

Speaker 2 (41:01):
If there was five more teams NFL, they might be
the thirty six Worths offensive.

Speaker 3 (41:07):
So it's it's crazy how bad they are.

Speaker 2 (41:11):
But it's not their fault, right, They lost two tackles
they took at crazy high draft picks and that was
going to be the thing that made that big difference
for them the season. So Herbert, you know guy I
love hating on because of his playoff failures, can you
give him a pass this year because he is going
into such a hostile environment and playing against a team
that has played really well this year in the Spatriers team. Sure,

(41:33):
but this is a game that he should win, right,
Herbert should win this game. And you really break it
all down, this is a Chargers defense that they're They're
the reason they've been winning this year. Mint I talked
about he's been great, and we've talked all the time Herbert,
this is a blind bet. I think we talked something
that you blindly bet this year. Herbert as a dog,
let alone a dog above three and three thirteen, six

(41:55):
and one in his career as a starter, and this
season shocking as a dog. He's had four straight up wins,
which in the past he's not won a lot as
a dog straight up This year though, he's four and
oh so really impressive what Herbert's done as a dog.
And you know, we talked to the little streak he
had ready he stole that game from the Eagles. He
was playing terrible, that defense played well enough and Herbert

(42:17):
made enough big time thurs to steal that game. And
same thing the next week, he stole that game. And
you know it's just been that type of year for
Herbert in this offense. So you know I was coming
to this, I was thinking, Okay, this number will get
bumped up. Everyone's gonna hammer this Patriots team. I think
even Patriots fans are like a little scared here because
they are going berserk about this MVP nonsense.

Speaker 3 (42:40):
And I'm loving on the outside.

Speaker 2 (42:41):
It's it's the best because you see from both points
of views and you see how both sides are just
trying to tear into each other. But you know, it
is true everything we've said about Drake May and how
he's been against winning teams and you know, in his
career or not his career, this season at home against
teams that are above five hundred, he is just one

(43:02):
and three straight up in these games. And I'm just
in this year he's ohe to one this year. So,
like we talked about, he hasn't really played teams of
winning records. He's only he played the Bills at home
and he lost that game obviously, so you know, true
tests for them and Vrabel and you know in his
in his career hardball, I know this is obviously before
Vrabel was there, He's done really well coming up to

(43:22):
New England when Bill but Bill, Bill Belichick was the coach.
I believe it's two and oh his career hardball easy
for you to say, yeah, he's got he's got the
history on his side with that in the travel. But
I love that the Chargers rest of their starters. I
just think of very when I think about this game.
It's like, that's a team that really needed that rest,
especially that offensive line altogether. So, uh, if it was

(43:42):
two and a half, maybe I could be talking to
the Patriots. But three, if you only could get three
of your book, that's the best thing we can get it.
I'd still take the Chargers. But there's three and a
halfs everywhere. So I really like the Chargers in this number.
And you know another game where the under just feels
like the right number, where I cannot believe that felt
like it was gonna be a forty two to forty
one total. I gotta tell you, they don't know forty seven. Chat,

(44:05):
it's already down to forty six and a half. So
I keep betting that one. This feels like a defensive
slug match. And I gave up those numbers charges defense
number one against deep ball pass and so I love this.

Speaker 3 (44:14):
Drake may one of the best.

Speaker 2 (44:16):
Deep ball throwers this season easily, uh best test he's
had all year. It's gonna be the charges of defense
trying to throw deep, especially against James, and that's that safety.

Speaker 1 (44:27):
The total feels so high for are. It was a
game with two coaches who you know they're going to
want to be conservative.

Speaker 2 (44:35):
Shockingly, I've I've seen three different books, all their numbers
show the early money is on the overs, so it
could it could go back up, but it did open.
It came down a little bit. Just I want people
to grab these unders now, just in case the pros
do come in then we don't know. We don't know
yet what the weather is going to be, but there
could be a no O eastern coming for this for
the Sun Daggs game, so it should be interesting.

Speaker 1 (44:53):
Let's do a quick word from our friends at hard Rock.
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(46:39):
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. All right, brother, Monday

(47:00):
Night football. We got the Houston Texans visiting the glorious, miraculous,
so much fun, all the emotions. Pittsburgh Steelers. They're three
and a half point underdogs at home. The total is
thirty nine and a half.

Speaker 5 (47:14):
Put yourself in this difficult situation. You're a professional football player,
Your team is on the road and your team bus
has just arrived outside Pittsburgh's Three River Stadium.

Speaker 1 (47:35):
Before I get into it, lay it on me.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (47:38):
Going back to the whelchat, Simon says, give me this
Steelers team plus three and a half home dog.

Speaker 3 (47:44):
I want to play a game, Simon says.

Speaker 1 (47:48):
Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bed, Pittsburgh Steelers plus
three and.

Speaker 2 (47:53):
A half made an opportunity to get a quality dude
at a discount.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
Talking about I love it. I mean, I bet it
before we even spoke about it. I don't even mind
the total here, Like the under for me is so interesting.
People are going to be fooled by what the Texans
did last week and their offense, and they're going to
see thirty eight points. They're not going to realize that
one of those touchdowns came at the end of the

(48:22):
game when the Colts were going pitchy pitchy, woo woo
and one of the Texans huge defensive linemen got the
ball and ran it back for a touchdown from ten
yards out. They had six field goals in that game,
so the Texans offense only scored fourteen points. We know
the Steelers went crazy in that game, but they went
crazy because Kyle Hamilton left the game and the Texans

(48:43):
defense is just so freaking good. So this is prime
to be one of those seventeen fourteen games. The Steelers
are getting dk Metcalf back. But give me your thoughts here,
give me your logic. Is it a row rot? Tomlins spout?
What's the theory?

Speaker 3 (49:01):
Look the greatest of all time? Look at your work.

Speaker 2 (49:03):
Oh yeah, Oh, I'm aboun to spend like ten minutes
here on this team. I love this line so much.
Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on
the three and a half and can't get enough of it,
can't And the books are loving it because everyone's just
hammering Houston. Every book I go to, they go, yeah, yeah, yeah,
We'll give you the three and halfl series. It's the best.

(49:23):
It's a good time here on Bermuda. I'm not gonna lie.
It's a great time. I knew all these stats were
gonna be insane with Aaron Rodgers and the fact that
he is I know it's a long time ago, but he,
at the end of the day, is a Super Bowl
winning quarterback who is now in the playoffs, and that
to me will always be an advantage. Now He's never repeated, right,
I mean those Green Bay teams, I think every time

(49:45):
me and you were on the other side. Luckily, we
just always faded him in the conference championship game and
they just always blew it.

Speaker 3 (49:50):
But this is not that.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
This is a wild card weekend with Rogers as a
home dog. And you know, the numbers are pretty insane.
Since two thousand and three, super winning book super winning
quarterbacks in the playoffs, they're underdog sixty four, twenty five
and two, so seventy two against the spread after they
win a super Bowl since twenty eighteen, these quarterbacks, so

(50:12):
quarterbacks have won super Bowls in their career after twenty
eighteen in the playoffs as an underdog sixteen and five
against the spread. I agree, they've been there. They've been
in those moments. It's hardly Wait.

Speaker 1 (50:23):
Wait, was that first stat for quarterbacks since two thousand
and three only as an underdog or was that against
the spread as super Bowl winning quarterbacks?

Speaker 2 (50:33):
Okay, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I feel
like Pittsburgh's defense has gotten better all season.

Speaker 3 (50:38):
I know you can get better.

Speaker 2 (50:39):
Their defense had just total horrible blown coverages and only
to get me started on Jalen Ramsey. But they always
find a way to get the turnover and they've been
better against their run. And you know I always talked
about Tomlin.

Speaker 3 (50:52):
That's a bad moment right here for you, young stuns.
Let's live.

Speaker 2 (50:55):
The Monday night stats with him are crazy. I think
a couple of weeks ago, I was pounding the table.
You have to take Steelers on a Monday night game,
just blindly take their money line against that horrible Miami
Dolphins team. And what did they beat him by? Like
twenty points? It's just as shone as I saw. They
gave him the money night game. I was so happy
for Pittsburgh because it's all lining up like I'm I'm

(51:16):
gonna keep going through this game, but I do have
some NFL futures I'm gonna throw out here at the end.
But Tomlin and Pittsburgh at home on a Monday night
in his career, are you just say any even on
the road included, he's twenty three and five in his
career Tomlin on the road or at home, straight up
in his career on Monday night at home, he's twelve

(51:36):
and one, straight up the only loss was during COVID,
so there's no fans in the stands.

Speaker 3 (51:42):
That was the only loss under Tomlin at home.

Speaker 2 (51:44):
Going back even further so in nineteen ninety two, they
are twenty three and one straight up at home. That
only loss, once again was during Coke. The Pittsburgh Steelers
do not lose at home.

Speaker 3 (51:55):
On Monday Night.

Speaker 5 (51:57):
There are teams in Pro football and then there are
the Pittsburgh steel.

Speaker 2 (52:06):
The voodoo keep talking about it. It doesn't make sense. You
just blindly bet it. It's a winners. It's what they do.
They win and cover these games. And we've seen Stroud
in his career. Stroud has been great at home. We
bet him at home. I think he's two to zero
straight up and against his spread his career, but he's
never won on the road in his career in the
playoffs or covered for that matter, in his career.

Speaker 3 (52:28):
They have had two games on the road.

Speaker 2 (52:30):
He has scored twenty four points total in those matchups
so combined, and both games he scored less than fourteen
points in those games. So we've just seen them offensively
struggle even more so this year. Right, this has been
a weakness to them all year. So I see this
being a gross type of game with DK back. That's
a huge advantage where you just saw Houston they give
up big plays downfield and you've seen Rogers get more

(52:52):
comfortable pushing the ball downfield. So I love this matchup
so much for this team. And should I get into
the futures chattery You've got more to say on.

Speaker 1 (53:00):
This game, dude, you're on a roll. I'm just going
to sit back and enjoy.

Speaker 2 (53:06):
Uh yeah, it's Oh, I did forget once sat the
Texans who run a nine game win streak. You think
that would be good. Historically that's actually terrible for the playoffs.
So teams on a nine game straight up win streak
entering the playoffs six and nineteen against the spread since
twenty twenty two in the wild Card round, feeling to
cover by four points per game when the teams are

(53:26):
favorites in this matchup five and fourteen against the spread.

Speaker 3 (53:30):
So I know that's.

Speaker 2 (53:30):
Bizarre, but it just shows how the public overrates them, right.
They kind of bet the number up too much, and
historically it's always a point or two up, way higher
than it should be. Actually had this game at two,
so I think it's a point a half off and
you're getting a really good value here.

Speaker 3 (53:43):
But let's get to the future.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
One one question, do you think it'll get to four?
Because there are numbers out there, like the juice is
all over the board on this everyone is at three
and a half, but some people are like three and
a half minut plus three and a half minus one twenty.
And then there's another place that isn't minus three and
a half half and looks like it's minus one and twenty.
So it looks like it's moving in any direction here.

Speaker 2 (54:08):
I will say this, a group I really respect put
a sizeable bet. They work with one of the biggest
books in the country, a very public book, and they're
kind of the one group they let pick their other
side of even their books out. They took a substantial
bet on the Steelers and they moved them to three.
So okay, we will see if a big book like
that is the first to go to three. Usually other

(54:30):
books that are a little smaller follows suit even off air,
like they just will follow those big books that way,
So it could like I talked about that Lamar game,
I said this one might get up to four and
a half by kickoff the public is not like Pittsburgh
every time they win it's always luck, where we always
say it's.

Speaker 3 (54:45):
Not luck, it's voodoo.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
And I think more people are starting to see that
Tomlin voodo is a real thing. So it's to my
greater point of the Steelers team gave you that stat
about Rogers. He will be a dog every round in
this playoffs. So let's really think about this people. What
is his path when you break this down? What is
his path? And right now you can get him a

(55:06):
fifty five to one to win the Super Bowl, which
I don't know if it's going to happen.

Speaker 3 (55:10):
I don't think it's gonna happen obviously.

Speaker 2 (55:11):
I mean Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game, and six
times if their own six, it gets to spread and
straight up their last six playoff games.

Speaker 3 (55:18):
It's it's been bad. But this is exact break he needs.

Speaker 2 (55:21):
He finally has that veteran quarterback who's been there since
he's had Roethlisberger, and an offense that has been played
better down the stretch in their path.

Speaker 3 (55:29):
I just can't get over it.

Speaker 2 (55:30):
You're telling me what stands in their way is the
two seed of Drake may or a rock you know,
bow Knicks at the one seed a team and none
of us really triable even in Denver it goes. Their
defense has been and you know, as great as Bonecks
played this season, I could still lie to myself and
see a path Ran Rodgers and this team can get
through that. Like there's just there is no Mahomes. And

(55:52):
as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the Bills,
it wouldn't be at home. He would have to become
to Pittsburgh. I already gave you those stats. He just
is a different quarterback on the road. So I just
see this for Roger, this Pittsburgh team. I know it
sounds crazy, but you just have to throw a little
bit on if you don't want to take the money
line here, I think that's the bet. Don't take the
money on Pittsburgh, take the fifty five to one because

(56:14):
we can just hedge it if we want next round.
But I for my long shot favorite team, this is
by far out of all the teams. I think this
has the best value of fifty five to one, and
they were sixty to one. I'm in to pros bet
it down a little bit.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
I'm in Simon, I'm in. Matt Mitchell was in I'm
telling you right now, we're all in together. We're doing
a grouper.

Speaker 2 (56:35):
And then for the chalk side, I always give out
one chalk side. Last year, if nailed it ten to
one on the Eagles, same thing this year. I already
broke it down for you. I still think they're the
best team the NFC. Their Achilles silo is gonna be
the OC. I think Petula is truly an idiot, and
the position that you need to be the smartest person
in the room.

Speaker 3 (56:52):
In the NFL, the OC needs to be the smartest person.

Speaker 2 (56:54):
The defenses are so complex these days, you really need
a genius. And that's that's fearful to me. But everything
I've read Sieranni's helping out the QB coach. Everyone has
had their imprint on this offense. And you've seen they're
listening to the listening to the nerds, like they're taking
more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively,
they run better out of it. And now with Lane
Johnson coming back, I just think this team's been undervalued

(57:16):
by the public, like they're the defending Super Bowl champs.
No one's talking about that way, Like when you hear
the NFC, they keep seeing how it's wide open, even
though you know this team could have been the.

Speaker 3 (57:26):
Two seats, so it's it's suped on. Right now.

Speaker 2 (57:29):
I think you get them eleven to one or ten
to one a couple different books. I just if you
are Goya think it's a homer of me, it's really not.
I'm just going off the numbers. I have them as
a slight favorite over the Seahawks right now. The books
have the Seahawks of the one and then right behind
them the Rams. Like, to me, that's insane when you
really think about it. So yeah, I'm gonna take the
Eagles at longer odds on those two teams.

Speaker 1 (57:48):
All right, So futures, we like the Steelers fifty five
to one. We like the Eagles at about ten to
one right now because they are behind the Seahawks and
the Rams. So much talk about the Rams. I will
say that the only preseason Super Bowl future I have

(58:08):
that really means I have. I think I have the
Niners at like twenty to one or something like that.
But the rest of it for me is matchups, and unfortunately,
I think the only matchup I have left is I
got Niners, Packers, Eagles, Niners, Packers, Eagles against the Bills.

(58:36):
Any one of those and I make a killing. But
you know, I had the Bengals, I had the Chiefs,
the Ravens. Those are all dead dead.

Speaker 3 (58:48):
Yeah, I gave out that's still alive.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
Rams versus Bills at crazy odds for the Rams and
the Bills to be in the Super Bowl. But I'm
with you, the Chiefs kind of burned a lot of
my tickets, and just for straight up bets, I'm a
big Rams guy.

Speaker 3 (59:02):
I got Rams.

Speaker 2 (59:03):
Basically twenty eight to one, twenty seven to one, they
signed DeVante, got him again at twenty three to one,
and you know, I only regret was I got scared
off in the summer for that final month because the
Stafford now brought right cost myself a lot of money.
Because they're just they end up being probably the best
team this season. I know the records will reflect that,
but uh, you know football, the best team that always

(59:24):
ends up with the best record.

Speaker 3 (59:25):
That's just how it is.

Speaker 2 (59:26):
So yeah, I'm with you, Chet, It's I need some
things that happen to get there. I'm not feeling too
confident in those long shots, but that's that's why we
play the future markets.

Speaker 1 (59:35):
It's just fun. I would say, I'm no joke. I
am going to build a bit of a money line
parlay on veteran quarterbacks versus quarterbacks who have never been
in so I will be playing.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
I don't know other Thursday we'll do our money line parlay.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
Oh that's a good idea. That's a really good idea.
All right. This has been sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast Network. We'll be back on Thursday with more
details the money line parlays. Our brass balls will do
more Sharp versus Square. Watch or listen on YouTube a

(01:00:12):
sharp or square like the video. Subscribe to the channel,
Download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods.
A rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever
you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.

Speaker 3 (01:00:25):
Fasten your seat belts.

Speaker 4 (01:00:26):
It's playoff time.

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Sharp or Square - NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Packers-Bears, Rams-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Patriots-Chargers, Niners-Eagles, Texans-Steelers

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