Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 14 BETS: Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers, Rams-Cardinals and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rought bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am
joined as always by my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter l Simon.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Chad, how goes it?

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Brother? We're gonna give more details about the contest in
a minute. People have been signing up, which is great.
I don't know if you know this, but you and
I signed up and people will be able to compete
against Dust in the contest, for which I will give
more details on how to sign up in a minute.
Our team name, Simon, Are you ready to hear what
our team name is? Chad and Simon bff's Chad and

(00:51):
Simon BFFs. That's how you're going to find us in
the contest. LF Simon, I think I forgot to say it, didn't.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
I know you said it, but I like it. You
just fired up.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
I forgot. I didn't remember listen.

Speaker 3 (01:08):
Walking around his house yelling E Simon.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
I do well. I yell like in a accents all
the time. And like over the holidays, we had like
two hours where there wasn't simmering tension between various step
moms and mother in laws. And that was when like me,
my wife, are two boys, my dad, his wife, and

(01:34):
my mother in law we gathered around the fireplace and
which I had built the fire and it was glorious
and we were playing different games and one of the
games required you to say certain words or guess what
an accent is. And at one point, like there was
an English accent and a Scottish accent and it was

(01:55):
my moment to shine because I have been doing bad
English and Scottish accents around my house, I think since
the day my kids were born. And it was so
exciting because they got it immediately. It was the only
time I could really contribute to the game.

Speaker 3 (02:08):
It's I always joke my biggest negative when I go
to England is I can't stop doing people's accents back
to him. And it's like kind of like were're doing.
It's like I'm not even trying to be disrespectful. I
have like a parrot syndrome, but here's something I just
repeat it back. And the big one is my uncle
has a dog named Nelly, and anytime Nelly does anything
goes no Nelle, and I swear for about no nell

(02:30):
two weeks all I say to anything, anyone asked me anything?

Speaker 2 (02:32):
Oh no, Nella, no No.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
I love it. I love it all right. It's a
week fourteen episode. We're going to narrow down the options
to get to our final five. It's going to be
harder than we think. In our pregame and our pre
show convo, it felt like we were split on some games.
Subscribe watch on YouTube, a Sharper Square, Apple Pods, Spotify,
listen Simon. We're going to get into the Steelers in

(02:56):
the Ravens game. But the big news this week, like
there is just crazy, crazy drama that we have not
seen in the Steelers' locker room or with the Steelers
generally since Mike Tomlin has been coached, Like they signed
Adam Thielen, so clearly all their downfield passing issues are
just gonna go away. I kid, but the bigger news.

(03:21):
Ben Roethlisberger on his podcast set, I love Mike Tomlin,
but and everyone knows anything you say before but is
a lie. I love Mike Tomlin, but maybe he should
go coach Penn State Come on, case Simon, I don't
get this. A Mike Tomlin's not building that roster. He's
not the one who signed TJ. Watt to a massive

(03:44):
forty million dollar guaranteed deal for next year. He's not
the one who signed Jalen Ramsey and traded away makea Fitzpatrick.
He's not the one who gave Cam Hayward a new
deal after he sat out during training gap. He's not
the one who signed Aaron Rodgers like. He's not the
one who traded for DK Metcalf. I know he's involved
in all these conversations, but there's a lot of blame

(04:04):
to go around. This roster is not good enough, and
we're going to get into that. But dude, Mike Tomlin's
been a brilliant coach for twenty years. I can name
ten teams right now that would kill to have Mike
Tomlin be their head coach. Am I wrong? Am I wrong?

Speaker 4 (04:21):
That?

Speaker 1 (04:22):
Like Mike Tomlin is not really the problem here?

Speaker 3 (04:25):
No, and Big Ben is part of the problem of
all these ex athletes having podcasts, And I get it,
everyone WANs to share their opinions and stuff like that,
but that just sounds like a bitter old man, Ben Roethlisberger,
that's just I don't know why he's holding grudges against Tomlin,
But to think a man like that, a caliber of coaching,
who's taken a joke of a team these last couple

(04:46):
of years to the playoffs every year, and you know,
think that man might go to Penn State, like you
just said, if you're if you're the Raiders, like all
these different organizations I've just for twenty years, you would
die to bring in a Mike Tomlin type this get
the organization right, So very very bizarre are Roethlisberger is saying.
I think it's another thing of an athlete maybe having

(05:06):
stuff we don't know about behind closed doors, that he's
holding grudges against tom because rationally doesn't make any sense,
Like no sense, Yeah, it makes zero sense. So I
think Tomlin laughed at it basically when they asked him
about it, just being like I gotta hear I gotta
talk about this stupid shit again, because it feels like
every year they're asking if you'd ever go to college,
and it's like, dude, the disrespect of that man to
ask him that question is ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (05:27):
Raiders, Titans, Giants, I mean, the list goes.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
On Eagles fanily. I love Sirianna. I would I would
take time, honestly, I mean, I do respect Serianni. But
what are we doing here? Tomlin's a Hall of Famer.

Speaker 1 (05:43):
All right, let's get into this thing. Every week we
give it our peaks. Every week, Simon's fellow professional betters
call to yell at him about those picks. It's time
to summarize those opinions. It's time for chef calls. Who
all right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe wanted.

Speaker 3 (06:07):
To do man, Yeah, I'll start where I got killed,
which I knew was coming.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
I was on.

Speaker 3 (06:12):
I'm on a lot of chalk. I would say, shocking,
and no one pros they really like Cincinnati. But like
I said, I did believe they liked him at the six,
and I haven't heard too much love for them at
the five and a half, which is where that number is.
But tons of calls about Cincinnati and how that's going
to be the right side. Tons of love for Pittsburgh,
tons of love for you know, not shockingly, this Atlanta

(06:32):
team that is in a unique spot a game. I
didn't really you know, talk too much about him. You
know a ton of love for Dallas, which we talked
a little bit about. But the biggest one I got wrong, obviously,
is this Minnesota game. I got a ton of calls
about pros who love Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
They don't think Daniels is playing.

Speaker 3 (06:50):
They love this matchup defensively for Minnesota against Mariota coming
on the road, if it is gonna be him, And yeah,
that's that's a game I just simply got wrong.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
I'm still on Washington.

Speaker 3 (07:00):
I still like them as a dog, especially the fact
that it's up to two and a half in a
lot of books right now. But I was shocked to
hear so many pros are coming in on this Minnesota
side and they just love JJ. I don't get it.
I will never get it. They love the coming of
the year. They kind of haven't budget on it, and
you've seen it this week, the way that numbers move.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
So those are the games that kind of gotten wrong.
The ones they loved.

Speaker 3 (07:19):
Our picks on love the Saints plus eight and a half,
Love this Jets team that we've talked about, loved our
love for this Cleveland team, you know, Chicago. I talked
to a couple of really smart groups that are on it,
I still think that's a Green Bay line. When it's
under seven, I still think it's a Green Bay line.
So I'll be a fun one to discuss. We want
to get into it. Tons of love for Atlanta already

(07:42):
talked a little bit about that one. Arizona. You know,
not a shaker with such a big number. I knew
the Pros would be on that one. And that Chiefs
game is kind of a flip flop. I've heard groups
on both sides of it, so there's not really one
side that they love, right if you can get the
three and the Chiefs, I know some really smart groups
have coming on and the same with a three and
a half. They're tons of professional groups that took early
positions on that Houston side.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
And the last one pain pains for me to hear.

Speaker 3 (08:06):
The Pros absolutely love this Chargers team against the Eagles.
They love the matchup for them, and what we've talked about,
there's all the dysfunction, all the noise around this Eagles team.
I think they view it as another spot to keep riding,
you know the fate of this Eagles team. But like
I said, I think if it's two and a half,
that's an Eagles line. So that's gonna be a fun
where I'm I gotta. I have a couple of games
are going against the pros. For the most part, it's

(08:27):
all the chalk, Like I'm just on chalk this weekend,
like every week the pro Just love the dogs.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
Simon, You'll always be my pro. Thanks buddy, you know
why Chad and Simon b f f's which reminds me.
The Free Sharp or Square Pro Football Pick Them Contest
is officially live and ready for your picks at Sharp
or Square dot the volume dot com. Go sign up.

(08:56):
I already did. I got me and my buddy Simon
in there. We'll bring back producer Matt Mitchell to share
all the details. But one small note, there's no tiebreaker
just for this week. Tiebreaker questions we'll start next week.
If you can't find it, We've ben get some questions
about that. That is why no tiebreaker this week. It

(09:18):
is a bony five degrees in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Middlewaukee, perfect contest.
Whether here's producer Matt Mitchell with all the info. All right,
Matt Mitchell, people can go sign up. Can you please
tell everybody how they can do that?

Speaker 2 (09:37):
Yes?

Speaker 4 (09:37):
Very excited that the contest is officially live. You can
just go to Sharp or Square dotthvolume dot com to
sign up for this totally free contest and you can
make your Week fourteen picks right away. It'll be the
same website and your same log in throughout the entire contest.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
How long will this totally free contest run?

Speaker 4 (10:00):
Okay, so it starts this week, which is Week fourteen,
and it'll run this time through Super Bowl Sunday, So
that's nine total contest weeks. But you've got to hurry
up and sign up because registration for this free contest
closes at one pm Eastern kickoff this Sunday, December seventh.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
Matt tell everyone how the contest works.

Speaker 4 (10:24):
It couldn't be easier. You just select five games against
the spread each week along with one tiebreaker question and
again tiebreakers start next week. No tiebreaker this week, and
once we hit the middle of the playoffs and the
slates get smaller, we may include some totals and a
player proper two just to beef it up. But for

(10:44):
right now, it's just five games against the spread and
during the regular season, deadline to submit your picks will
be one pm Eastern on Sundays, and you can always
see where you stand with everybody else using the leaderboard
fund which is also at Sharporsquare dot the Volume dot Com.

Speaker 1 (11:05):
The most important question, Matt, as we have been getting
comments on this all year long. Will these lines that
we are all playing together against each other in good fun,
will these lines move?

Speaker 4 (11:23):
Yes, The lines in this contest the Sharper Square Pro
Football Pickup Contest are dynamic as they've been the last
two seasons, so they'll move with the market throughout the week.
But be advised, these are still contest lines, so they'll
always end in half points to avoid ties. All pecks
must win or lose. So yes, the contest lines will.

Speaker 1 (11:46):
Move dynamic lines. How or what actually are people going
to win? What is the grand prize?

Speaker 4 (11:53):
Okay, so grand prize? The contest winner and a guest
will be flown to warm Full South Florida, where they
will enjoy a complimentary two nights day at the Beautiful
Seminal Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, along with tickets to
the Memphis Grizzlies versus Miami Heat game on February twenty first.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
Very important, Can people change their picks during the week?

Speaker 4 (12:21):
Yes, if you want to make any changes to your picks,
you just need to cancel your entry and make all
five picks again. At the bottom of your finished entry,
there's a little button that says cancel and play again.
You click that, it cancels your entry. You make your
picks again at the current contest lines.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
Easypsy.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
Is there a tiebreaker?

Speaker 4 (12:41):
Yes, so this contest is only nine weeks long, so
the tiebreaker is going to be really important as it
has traditionally been. It will be total passing yards in
a selected game, typically Monday Night Football. In the event
of a tie at the end of this contest, the
winner will be decided by the lowest tiebreaker differential. So
when you submit your pecks, do not forget to put

(13:03):
in your typebreaker.

Speaker 1 (13:04):
Answer, Matt, will all of the games be included as
available contest picks.

Speaker 4 (13:13):
So we do not include Thursday Night Football in the contest.
We never have, probably because those games are an abomination,
But generally speaking, all other games will be available to
choose who.

Speaker 1 (13:25):
Can play in this contest, Matt.

Speaker 4 (13:26):
Okay, you just need to be twenty one years or
older as of today and located in the United States,
So sorry Canadians and Brits and all our international listeners.
The only US states that are excluded are Rhode Island
and Washington State. Tell me why they have tricky rules
about free to play games. So like, if you live

(13:48):
in Newport or Seattle or whatever, call your congressman. I
don't ask me. I have no idea, but I wish
you the best of luck anyway.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
All right, well listen. Thank you Matt for the FAQs,
Thank you for other work getting the contest ready to roll.
Thank you to our sponsors at hard Rock Bet for
working through the entire challenging regulatory process with us so
we could bring this to you. Guys, better late than never.
Go sign up for the contest. It is open and

(14:16):
ready to roll right now. All the picks that we're
talking about on Sunday will be based on these contest lines,
so there'll be no questions about where you get in
that line, where are you betting stale lines, Like every
line we're betting is going to be the same lines
that everybody else is seeing.

Speaker 3 (14:31):
And the ninety five that listen on the podcast. If
you know most of our fans listening to via podcast,
we put it on socials too. If you're confused by anything,
hop on there. Matt Mitchell is happy to help you
as well if you just want to DM them or
AD them or anything like that. You know, we know
it's very late in the season and it's a quick
turnaround here, but I really appreciate all the people that
signed up so early, and like we keep saying, it's

(14:53):
the type of thing where the more of you that
sign up, the cooler stuff.

Speaker 2 (14:56):
We wile to be able to do in the future.

Speaker 3 (14:57):
So we love the support we're getting from all the
fans and come prove you're better than me and Chad.

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Let's see it. People.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
I love when you when you when you give appreciation
to the fans, I think it's fantastic. Shows your true spirit.
It shows that you really really are a good person
deep down.

Speaker 2 (15:17):
I used to hate them.

Speaker 3 (15:18):
I'll be the first time I used to hate the fans.
But then we did a bunch of live shows and
you quickly realize you're only hearing ten percent of the
assholes online. The ninety percent of these people are awesome,
cool people that just want to you know, learn get
better at.

Speaker 2 (15:30):
Betting football and love football.

Speaker 3 (15:31):
So I've grown to really appreciate our fan base and
how cool so many of them.

Speaker 1 (15:35):
Are I love that about you? All right? Listen, you
can find our producer Matt Mitchell tylt go to at
sharp or square underscore. The little underscore at the end
of it is key at Sharper square underscore. Let's get
into it, Simon, you mentioned Dallas. We let's talk about
Dallas and Detroit for a second. Detroit is a three

(15:56):
point favorite. We're not going to spend too much time
on it. We can't put it in contest because Thursday
games aren't eligible. But it's a really interesting game. I
don't think I'm gonna bet it like I think I'm
just gonna sit it out. I think it's it's I
think it's lined perfectly right, like it feels so public
to bet the Cowboys. I'm not getting the hook. It's
not going to two and a half. The Lions I

(16:18):
think have real issues either reverse biases coming into play
for me maybe, but I don't like the number totally fair.

Speaker 3 (16:28):
I'm gonna touch the stove. I'm gonna bet the Lions.
I can't help it. I just I just nailed it.
I'm clearly stuck in the past, but I am just
so scared off about how much public love this Cowboys team,
and like you just said, the number has not budged
off the three despite we've had a day and a
half now of not just professional money, public money as
well hammering this Cowboys side.

Speaker 2 (16:48):
So I'll bet with the books, I'll take the Lions.

Speaker 3 (16:51):
But yeah, very very low confidence in this bet. I
just this Lion's team just seems totally lost.

Speaker 1 (16:55):
Yeah, Washington plus one and a half at Minnesota at
hard Wrack Bet. Washington plus one and a half was
the Simon says Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet.
I think we made that when you thought Jaden Daniels
might be playing. It's looking more and more like Marcus
Mariota is going to be the quarterback. And this line
has now moved to two. You said there's two and

(17:17):
a half's out there. I think in this bet, I'm
with you. I don't see what the love is for
the Vikings if JJ McCarthy is your quarterback, because he
is just so ineffective. He has not been able to
move the ball in any capacity. So are you just

(17:38):
thinking that it's going to be a three nothing game?
Like if you're betting on the Vikings, Like, what are
you looking at here? To make you feel good about
betting on this Vikings team. I know it sounds stupid.
Marcus Mariota is now sort of has enough past attempts
to be eligible for all the rankings. He's a medium

(18:00):
ore serviceable, mid level quarterback who has been in the
pantheon of backup quarterbacks recently and certainly this year one
of the better ones. And so I'm with you. I
favor Washington here. Everyone is banking on the fact that
Brian Flores is going to be able to confuse Marcus

(18:22):
Mariota to a degree. He's going to turn this game over.
That's got to be what it is, right, Yeah, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (18:28):
And I've had just a lot of guys who are
really heavy on this Minnesota tie just said, you need
to kind of go back and really dive into how
bad this team has been for the Commanders, right with
everything that's going on behind the scenes, And that's fair.
Like their last couple of games, even though it was
a jugging out of a schedule, they went to Kansas City,
they got blown out seven to twenty eight. Then they

(18:49):
played a Seahawks team at home, got blown out thirty
eight fourteen, then played Detroit at home, lost forty four
to twenty two, so that's fair, right, And then they've
kind of played well these last two weeks where you
know Miami, I think that was in Madrid they.

Speaker 2 (19:03):
Lost sixteen to thirteen.

Speaker 3 (19:04):
They felt like they could have won to cover that
game a million different ways, right, I remember the kicker
out of miss kick.

Speaker 2 (19:08):
It was just a total training wreck.

Speaker 3 (19:09):
And then that Denver game another game where it felt
like they could have covered.

Speaker 2 (19:12):
And won it outright in a bunch of different ways.
It lose by one.

Speaker 3 (19:16):
They obviously got the cover, but that was the first
time they had covered in about four or five weeks.
So I get what they're saying, right that this this
Washington team is just bad right defensively and you really
dive into it as bad as JJ is. You would
think wide receivers, but it'll take advantage of a really
bad secondary. Like Chad just said that, you're banking a
lot on JJ McCarthy and make these completions, and you know,

(19:37):
Justin Jefferson hasn't been blowing up in the media, but
you can see him on the field, his bilinge, everything
he's doing. He's just so over it, sick of this
whole experience. So I really am just playing the number here.
Like Chad just said, there's two and a half's out there,
a couple of very public books. I'm gonna have to
take the number. Even if it is Mariota. I still
feel like this game should be closer to a pick
than it is at minus two and a half for
this Minnesota side.

Speaker 2 (19:58):
So not shocking.

Speaker 3 (20:00):
The pros love this Minnesota team so much. I'm just
shocked the numbers move so much. Where we don't even
know who the quarterback is going to be. Where Daniels
is practicing is just limited, and that's why the number
has moved in my opinion, because like Chad said, you know.

Speaker 2 (20:12):
I talk a little bit on Tuesday.

Speaker 3 (20:13):
People I've talked to behind the scenes in Washington. They
don't want him to play right. They just wanted the
kid to take a full time heal come back next
year when it matters. But he's such a competitor. He's
pushing the play because he wants to right. He's not
a guy that, when he's healthy, wants to set out.
So I'm really interesting how it plays out because it's
right now, it's organization versus a quarterback, and we'll see
what side the head coach picks. But I think this

(20:35):
head coach, Like we've talked about these different coaches. You
see the way they coach at the end of these
games where they want to be next year. It feels
like dan Quinn he's happy to follow the organization's lead
here and maybe said his quarterback, so be patient here,
like I gave it, as Simon says, obviously I was wrong.
The number could keep moving up. If it is the
two and a half at your book, you can get
it right now. I would grab, but at one and
a half, I'd be patient, see if you can get

(20:57):
a better number.

Speaker 1 (20:57):
Two Jade and Daniels said, I don't rehab to sit,
so we know he wants to get on the field.
So it's going to be an interesting sort of tug
and pull there. If he doesn't play this week, you know,
are they going to let him come back and play
week fifteen, Week sixteen, week seventeen? Like as the season
gets closer to the end, what's really the point if

(21:18):
this team is completely out of the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (21:20):
So they played the Eagles twice, so it's like, does
he want to come back and play spoiler against a
divisional po I could see it.

Speaker 2 (21:27):
Maybe if he was a ten year vet. It's his
second year.

Speaker 3 (21:29):
Does he really have that much against the Eagles that
he's like, No, I need to come back for these
last two weeks to play.

Speaker 2 (21:34):
I just don't see it. So I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
It's a really fun situation where the competitor in him
wants to play, but the organization's smart.

Speaker 2 (21:40):
They're trying to protect the long term. They're thinking they've.

Speaker 1 (21:43):
Been through this with RG three Indianapolis at Jacksonville. Jacksonville
it's a one and a half point underdog at home.
I'm going to tell you this one lit up our
comments in YouTube on Tuesday after the show, I went
in and answered some questionquestions about it. People felt that
I had a bias against the Jags, and I do

(22:05):
have a bias against the Jacks.

Speaker 2 (22:08):
We both do.

Speaker 1 (22:09):
I don't think Trevor Lawrence is a very good quarterback,
like that that's a bias because it's true because he
hasn't performed at the level at which he has paid,
at which he was drafted, at which the expectations are
for him. Like that's just a fact. So the reason
this team has been playing well and his contention is

(22:30):
because of Liam Cohne, who, by the way, maybe he
should be Coach of the Year for dragging this team
to eight and four in the middle of December, right,
But the truth is I do have a bias against
Trevor Lawrence. And yet in the show on Tuesday, when
I said I feel like I want to bet the Colts,

(22:51):
I still listed all the reasons in which I'm afraid
of betting the Colts, And by the end of the show,
by the end of that segment, you had completely turned
me around. And this line did get to plus two
for a second, and now it's been back down to
one and a half. This is like, clearly the line
of demarcation for the wise guys is too. I feel

(23:11):
like you and I have probably come around are going
to be betting the Jags because I'm I'm I'm worried
about Daniel Jones. That's to me the issue.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
Worry about Daniel Jones.

Speaker 3 (23:24):
And like we talked about the secondary of this Colts team,
there are some major questions about them when you can
exploit them, like the Jags should be able to This
feels like a great matchup for them, so really fun
game to dive more into this past couple of days
and just hearing the pulse of what the pros were
gonna do with the one. I kind of knew they'd
be on the Jaguars, but I was just interested because

(23:44):
this number, like Chad said, there's a couple of twos
that have touched. So it's like, Okay, is there professional
money coming in on the Colts or is there something
I'm missing here? And you know, I've heard maybe one
or two groups have come in to the Colts, but
just the majority of guys I've talked to kind of
the same in tality of us here. This is a
Jags line, a Jag spot, and this Colts team. It
feels like we've talked about a couple of these games.
We feel like we're holding biases from earlier in the

(24:05):
year in this type of game where we know the
Colts when they're going right, they are the better team right,
there's no doubt about it. When everything's clicking offensively. I
think we both agree we would have trust Daniel Jones
much more than we trust Trevor Lawrence and many aspects,
especially this season where you know Daniel Jones, if you
go back and look, he was so great against the

(24:26):
Blitz when he was fully healthy and mobile. Again, he
wasn't even ruin the ball that much. Just his pocket
presence was incredible. Ever in the year, you've seen these
last three four weeks. Whatever the injury is, maybe he's
pushing off it's so painful. Whatever it is, it's in
his own head. He's just been taking sacks usually when
he's been reading the hot route and making the first
read and having you know, good throws and tough pockets.

(24:47):
He's not been that same way. And defensively, we've seen
this Jaguars team. Yes, they do have weaknesses obviously and
their linebackers in their secondary, but that D line, which
they've drafted so well these last couple of years. Strength,
they have guys that can pressure quarterbacks here, so you know,
matchup wise, I really like this Jaguars team, and we
talked a little bit about it. This this number should

(25:07):
be closer to a pick bro general public, Like my
model has it a minus three for the Jaguars, which
I still think is insane. I can't believe it loves
the Jaguars that much. So really unique spot here back
in the Jaguars team that you know they're kind of
left for dead by the public even though they've been
winning and covering these.

Speaker 2 (25:25):
Last couple of weeks.

Speaker 3 (25:26):
So I think people are just like us, where it's
hard enough to have your biases of Trevor Lawrence. He
just does such egregious stuff every week. It's hard not
to have the Linger in the back of your mind.
But trust the models people here, trust the professionals, back
back this Jaguars team. And yeah, I'm glad I wasn't
all on once a gat on the Cults on Tuesday,
because Sunday night me and Chat both said, yeah, we
thought that was a good cold number, and yeah, I

(25:48):
quickly realized the error of my ways. And yeah, this
Jaguars number, I could just see it dipping. Like you said,
it's got up to two a couple of books. The
more pros I talk to, this seems like more money's gonna
come to the Jaguars side.

Speaker 2 (25:57):
And this could easily flip come game time.

Speaker 3 (25:59):
So definitely grab the Jags as you can right now.

Speaker 1 (26:01):
Daniel Jones said the leg really isn't an issue unless
he has to move laterally, which is like fifty percent
of the moves right, Like you got to move right
to left and forwards and backwards. So that is a
little bit of a scary prospect to be betting on
a guy who's struggling to move when he's going to

(26:24):
get some pressure. And also the Colts, like their defensive
line has some injuries and that's impactful against a running game.
And you know, I think both coaches are really good.
I think there's no real advantage there. I think Liam
Cohn is doing a remarkable job with subpar talent at
the quarterback position.

Speaker 2 (26:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (26:42):
He also had the most Duke conversation ever where he
set his buddies who went to college with have invented
this like fake prosthetic party puts on his pads that
protects the injured area. And it made me think of
I have an aunt that lives down in Durham, North Carolina,
and I was probably probably twenty two. I just really
dove into becoming a professional better. I'm flying down there,

(27:04):
go a visitor, and I'm sitting next to a kid,
Sam ages me twenty two to twenty three, flying back
to college where he goes to Duke and he does
heart research. I go, that's pretty cool. Like, again, we're
on totally different pathrore, Like I'm a professional better.

Speaker 2 (27:17):
I goes, what do you guys do?

Speaker 3 (27:18):
He goes, he pulled out just box and goes, well,
I build an artificial heart and it got to prove
to be put into process. This is like in whatever,
say like twenty twelve, twenty eleven, and I always think
back to this guy is building these fake hearts and
artificial hearts at twenty two twenty three and I was
over here like talking about being a professional better totally
broughbab me back down and humbled me.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
At that time I really needed it.

Speaker 3 (27:37):
So I always think back at the different paths of life,
and you know, you never know, like this kid, he's
someone that built artificial hearts and extra professional better when
we were both just young kids talking about TV shows
and movies, all.

Speaker 1 (27:49):
Right, that said, we're going to be on the Jacks
because I don't think anyone's thinking about a way to
fix Daniel jones broken fibula between now and then Miami.
At the New York Jets. The line at hard Rock
is two and a half. Everywhere else it's three. So
I would recommend getting the three. I made this Chad's
choice when it was the Jets two and a half
On Tuesday, and that seemed to be the only twenty

(28:11):
four hour window where this wasn't three because it was
at three Sunday in the Monday. It's been three since
Wednesday morning. I betted at three. I bet it again
at three. So the Dolphins are getting all the bets
on this one. They're the public side for sure. You
mentioned you shurep call. The Jets are the wise guy side.
What I don't get is why hasn't it come back

(28:33):
down to two and a half when I know the
professional money is coming in on the Jets in this game.

Speaker 3 (28:40):
Yeah, honestly, I think this has to deal with what
we talked a little bit about, where it's this game
had a lot of dictating on the weather, and you
saw earlier in the week.

Speaker 2 (28:48):
They're supposed to be a Hug Show storm coming through
for this game.

Speaker 3 (28:51):
Now, the Saand's gonna blow out and it's going to
be sunny, So it basically would be thirty one thirty
two degrees for kickoff and sunny is what they're predicting
right now, Which if you're in Miami and Tua, that
as good as it's going to get. Right if you're
coming to the Northeast in December. You knew it's gonna
be cold. But if you're not getting any type of
horrible wind in met life, you're not getting rain or
any bad elements like that. Who should be all right?

(29:11):
Right with the times we've seen him struggle. You know
that was when he was in Buffalo or Kansas City
and it was like windshill of three degrees outside and
it was just my numbing. It might not be that
bad for him in this spot, but we've seen times come.
This Jets team, they keep being underrated.

Speaker 2 (29:27):
By the public. Tyrod Taylor, We've talked about it.

Speaker 3 (29:29):
You know, his last eight starts, he's seven to zero
to one against the spread.

Speaker 1 (29:32):
So it's super Bowl champion, pro bowler.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
Nothing nothing new for him though. It's just being underrated
by the public.

Speaker 3 (29:39):
Just seems like that's gonna be what's gonna be for
Tyrod Taylor, right, They will keep underrating him. So my
only issue with Ay Chad is we both love this
one so much.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
This tends to be the games that exactly burn.

Speaker 1 (29:50):
Us right now. I know, I agree, I totally.

Speaker 2 (29:53):
We're nothing going to revisit Sunday for our contest.

Speaker 3 (29:55):
I have like a feeling like I'm getting in a
little bit my gut alarm bells here that we've already
hit on black seventh straight times the Roulette wheel, and
we're we're hitting on black once again. So I don't
know what to do here where it's like, I think
it's the right read, but we are taking a little
bit of a risk here that the market might have
caught up to Taylor at this point, because to me,

(30:15):
this number feels right like my model has it right
at this So my model has.

Speaker 2 (30:19):
It too, you know. I think we're getting a good
number on the Jets at two and a.

Speaker 3 (30:24):
Half, especially at three. But I get why there's just
not a ton of love from most professional talk to
where they're playing their Jets. But it's not like they're like, no,
you have to bet this. This is exactly why you
want to back this Jets team. I feel like they
have the same mentality as I do. It's like, man,
we got away with one last week. We really got
to go back to this well hammer this one. But
we just we love both of us love this matchup.

(30:44):
It's just this Miami's defense is so bad, Taylor's gonna
be able to move the ball against him. Can they
get stops against TUA after you know, last week too
had a terrible game historically, and you dive into his trends,
he tends to bounce back after really bad games every
time him and McDaid, it's just that combo. You know,
any game he goes without throwing a touch on the
following game, he averages two point three touchdowns per game.

(31:05):
So it's just again lazy stat, but just shows he
tends to bounce back after struggling the game before.

Speaker 2 (31:10):
So just to be something weary of.

Speaker 3 (31:11):
But this is another game that if we wake up
Sunday chat and it is twenty five degrees limit or
rain kind of kind of windy out, I will have
to put this one. If there's any type of winner
elements in this game. But it's a perfect sunny day.
Maybe I'll talk this out of and lie to myself
being like, nah, don't, don't, don't go too hardier on
this Jets team. But I love the plus three and
you do as well, so it's me hard to avoid it.

Speaker 1 (31:32):
Yeah, I agree with you. I feel like, and it's
totally anecdotal, like when we tend to love a game,
lock in a game early in the week, I feel
like we don't even hesitate to put it into our
final five, and it always ends up being a game
that we're out of it in the first quarter.

Speaker 3 (31:54):
Yeah, we've had the blinders on a couple of times
like that.

Speaker 1 (31:56):
It's true. Well, let's see if we have the blinders
on for the Cleveland rounds at minus three and a
half hosting the Tennessee Titans. Huge swings back and forth
on this one in a small range like four and
a half to four to three and a half to
three and a half to four to four and a half,
back and forth, back and forth. Look, I dismissed all
the noise about cam Ward's improvements a couple of weeks

(32:20):
ago in the show, but if you do look at
his numbers, passer rating, lack of interceptions, completion percentage, they
are all much much better since Brian Callahan was fired
in week six. And this has been outside of last week,
a more competitive team.

Speaker 2 (32:37):
Right.

Speaker 1 (32:37):
They twice beat down the back door to cover a
big number against the Chargers, to cover a big number
against Seattle. But they haven't played Miles Garrett in Cleveland yet,
And so when I'm looking at this game, I'm looking
at not sure door Sanders as more than a field
goal favorite. I'm looking at cam Ward having to compete

(32:59):
against Miles Garrett.

Speaker 3 (33:02):
Yeah, and just been talking to why different pros love
this Tennessee team so much?

Speaker 2 (33:07):
Right, They've come in very heavy on like this.

Speaker 3 (33:09):
This number did open a lot of books at five
and a half four and a half, and like Chad said,
a lot of books quickly move at three and a half.
So that's some serious money pushing it a whole point.
And I couldn't understand why. So I wanted to figure
out what people are seeing that I'm missing, And it
is a little bit of the cam Wred love right
that you just talked about. But it's also they can't
believe that Shador Seniors would be this big of a favorite,
which I think is a totally fair criticism of him

(33:31):
and that team. But like I talked on Tuesday, I
don't think this is Shdor Sanders' line. I truly think
this is a defensive line. This is a line that
when the bookmaker's posted it's what I'm looking at my model,
which is like, okay, say the offense is a total
zero in your opinion, at least the Browns have a
good run game, Like we've seen it through multiple weeks here.

Speaker 2 (33:50):
That they can run the ball pretty consistently.

Speaker 3 (33:53):
It's just the usuer for us, which I think most
guys have bet in this Browns team, is if it's
thirty and seven, thirty and eight, you definitely have more
confidence in Ward, I guess completing that than you do
a Saantors, Right. But like I've talked about, I think
it's just an overreacting road reaction to this past week
where you go and look at that Raiders game. He
was moving pretty well in the pocket, finding open lanes

(34:14):
and I think he only had eleven completions, but still
they were big time completions, right, and that's what you're
looking for for Sainders and a young quarterback were cam Ward.

Speaker 2 (34:21):
We've talked about it.

Speaker 3 (34:22):
He's so erratic that, yeah, the numbers have been better,
but we talked about a lot of those numbers is
a late game, you know, passing yards and touchdowns like
those are fourth quarter stats. Yeah, most defense are playing prevent.
Could we get burned by the Browns prevent defense? Sure,
but we've seen it this year. This Browns team doesn't
usually go into that mode like they always plays if
they're very desperate, so it just feels good to reaction,

(34:45):
like the pros have really bet this one, and you
look at the money splits.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
You know, the tickets of most books.

Speaker 3 (34:50):
Are pretty heavy on the Brown side, but the money
is very, very much skew to this Tennessee side. So
I really do like this Browns game. It's another game,
just like the Jets when we're I know it's probably
an overreaction of my part to it, but I just
think the lines move too much.

Speaker 2 (35:06):
Like I don't think the Jet should be plus three.

Speaker 3 (35:08):
I don't think the Browns here it should be minus
three and a half. It just feels like a too
much overaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe
you'll help us talk because out have to come a
Sunday chat. But as you say, right now, the Browns,
they are quickly becoming all of my bigger bets. I've
taken a pretty large position on the minus three and
a half. I just I think it's a unique spot
with this Browns defense. Jim Schwartz at home against a
rookie on the road in the elements. I gotta take

(35:30):
the Browns here.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
Yeah, I'm having a hard time walking away from it to.

Speaker 3 (35:35):
Total thirty three and a half. I shouldn't mention that too.
So that's another reason pros like the like the dog.
Here's just a total that low with that few points,
most pros will just blindly take the dog in that position.

Speaker 1 (35:46):
Yeah, it's a really it's a really low number. I'm
having a hard time walking away from the Browns. And
it's entirely because we've had a lot of success betting
the Browns as the better defense at home against much
much better teams and better quarterbacks and than what we're
getting in the Titans and so and with by the way,

(36:09):
worse quarterbacks than Shoud or Sanders. Yeah right, So I mean.

Speaker 3 (36:14):
Whether it's matter here, Like looking at it early again,
it's it's three four days out, but it's supposed to
be flurries of snow, really strong wind, and probably in
the mid thirties. So this could be another game where
the elements play a factor into.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
It, all, right, Seattle at Atlanta. Atlanta's a seven point
dog right now. We talked a little bit about it
on Tuesday. You and I are split on this game.
You're riding this I like the Falcons here and I
know it sounds gross to say it, but they keep
losing close games. Sam Darnold has not been as good

(36:47):
as he was when he started the season the past
few games. Kirk Cousin's serviceable. I'm not saying he's great
to me. The one reason that I'm not like going
all in on the Falcons yet is because I want
to know Rake London's status. He is so important to
this team, but.

Speaker 3 (37:04):
Like very unlikely hasn't practiced all week, so you know,
and they're four and eight, like, are they really going
to rush back there? They're number one player on their team.

Speaker 1 (37:14):
And absent that absent that this is peak Seattle and
the lowest of the low valleys for Atlanta. So I
get why the wise guys are on it. I get
why it's moved from seven and a half to seven.
I'm surprised that you and I are split on this one.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
Yeah, it's just again.

Speaker 3 (37:36):
Atlanta is a type of team where I'm not saying
all the teams they've played in the past are bad,
but they have not played a team, in my opinion,
on this Seattle level where you know.

Speaker 2 (37:48):
They went to New England.

Speaker 3 (37:49):
I don't know if you remember that game they lost
by one point, it was twenty four to twenty three.
That's a totally different team at this point, right, that's
with Drake London, that's with Pennix, that quarterback. Like this
is I don't think people are reacted enough to how
bad this Falcons team now is with the kirkut, the helmet,
without Drake Lon and it's just you know, their last
three games, you know, not going to take too much

(38:10):
away from it, but it's been against Carolina and Orleans
and the Jets. They won one game of that whole unit, right,
that was when they went to Orange and they blew
up the Saints team. But you even talked about how
that game was much closer than people realize. Right, that
was a game where Saints could gather their own way
and eventually Kirk took it away from them.

Speaker 2 (38:26):
Right, they won twenty four to ten.

Speaker 3 (38:28):
So it's just a faconts team that they beat up
on bad They beat and played bad teams here with Kirk,
this is a legit juggernaut like the Seahawks, the more
numbers I dive into them, Like you said, if Sam
Donald could figure it out, their path to the Super
Bowl is literally there. Like they have the guys, they
have the pieces. It's all going to come to Sam Donald.
So for me, this is a get right game for

(38:50):
Sam Donald. He should light up this defense. And I
think what you're talking about is true. The only thing
we're wary of here is just such a huge number
to be back in Sam Darnald on the road.

Speaker 2 (38:59):
But talked if you just don't get too hard.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
About yourself on Sam Darnold, this head coach with Geno Smith,
has gone on the road in won games and covered
games and going back to last year, so it kind
of seems like we need to start thinking so much
about what the quarterback is that start really realizing this
is a head coach team like a lot of these
other teams. We talked about like, you know, this head
coach might be one of the best in football. And

(39:23):
you know McDonald here his record on the road as
just a young coach. He's nine to four against the spread.
So you know, this year we've seen it as two
non covers have been you know, Sally both games I
backed or no. He did cover against the Rams, but
he didn't cover against Tennessee. But we talked that felt
like a very flukey back door covered by the Tennessee team.

(39:43):
So I'm gonna hold hold my line here back to
the Seahawks team on the road. I just the numbers
moved too much of minus seven. I gotta take the Seahawks.
If you if you're like Chad and.

Speaker 2 (39:53):
You want to back to the Falcons, I hope you
could have got to seven and a half. But it's seven.
I just I can't advise you to bet. I think
you're betting into a bad number.

Speaker 1 (40:00):
Well, suffice to say it won't be in our contest.
All right. We mentioned Mike Tomlin, We mentioned the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is visiting the Baltimore Ravens minus five and a
half point favorites against their division rivals. This is going
to be our brass Balls Better the Week presented by

(40:22):
hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 4 (40:24):
You know what it takes, brass balls.

Speaker 1 (40:30):
We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore
Ravens at minus five and a half. We don't want
to pile on to Mike Tomlin, who we love and
we think he's an amazing coach. It's the rare time
we are not backing the Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot
All betting is a risk. We recognize Lamar Jackson is

(40:53):
not as healthy as he has been. This offense has
not been as consistent as we would like it to be.
To me, this is really a bet against Aaron Rodgers,
the inability of this offense to move the ball down
the field, and a bet against even more. They're very
quickly aging in front of our eyes defense, and a hope,

(41:17):
a hope, a bet that the Ravens offense can take
a smidgeon of advantage against a defense that, as the
games go on, continues to get worse and worse in
third downs and continues to get worse and worse in
explosive plays. And that's when we can see Derrick Henry
break open some game, some big gains and put these

(41:38):
games away. It's what happened last year in the playoffs.
We've seen it happen a couple times with this team
when they just completely collapse and the offense can't function.
So Ravens minus five and a half.

Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, we love this Ravens team.

Speaker 3 (41:54):
And this's a line that I almost positive will be
in our contest because this is such a unique matchup
where you know, it's it's not it's not that calm
that the public is totally giving up on Lamar. But
it feels like that's what we reached here with this
line chat for this probably should be really does just
look at that just matchup, and most people's models are

(42:16):
gonna have this at seven. So all right, it's a
point and a half off. All right, Great, we're getting
this Ravens at a point a half off. But it's
also a unique spot where the Ravens have now not
covered in three straight weeks. Right, So not only is
the public gonna be off of them, I think they're
gonna be on Pittsburgh just because I'm not telling one
of those those trends.

Speaker 2 (42:33):
Everyone's gonna be giving out those trends all week.

Speaker 3 (42:35):
Right. That is a known trend thing where if you
just blindly back the dogs in this matchup, whether it
be the Ravens or Pittsburgh, over the last twenty years,
you've come out green, and especially with the numbers above three.
I give out that stat Tomlin when he's underdog in
this matchup above three, or even hardball either side when
the numbers above three, the underdog team is twenty three

(42:57):
and five against the spread in that spot. So historically
you've just blindly backed the big dog in the spot,
and it's worked out for you. When you go back
through all those years, even when the Ravens had down years,
it really always was defensive. Like you look at all
the scores of all those games, it was these insane
ruling defensive battles.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
Sixteen, fourteen, twenty seventeen. Like, it was games where the
Steelers defense made big, big plays and caused huge turnovers
that turned the game. That's what you were always banking on.

Speaker 3 (43:29):
The last three times they played in the Pittsburgh won
the game. So the last two the Ravens have won,
they I think they've blown them out, But I just
thought it was interested. The last three times that Pittsburgh won,
they won eighteen to sixteen. Does that not sound like
a defensive game? They won seventeen to ten. Does that
not it'sund a defensive game. And then they won again
seventeen to ten. So we talked to Lamar earliest career,

(43:50):
he was zero to five against spread and straight up
against its Pittsburgh team. How was when Pittsburgh had this
dominant defense. Now these last years, right, these last two years,
the cracks have been forming. This year, it's just totally
the damn has broken the flood. Gat are totally open.
We talked about it, like I went back and look
just to make sure I wasn't speaking out of turn
on TJ.

Speaker 2 (44:10):
Watt.

Speaker 3 (44:10):
All the numbers back it up. He's been atrocious, getting
no pressures at all. And you know, if we look
at this matchup just on paper, we get Lamar is
banged up. That is something we're got to deal with here.
This should be a Derek Henry bounce back. Everything they've
talked about. The coaches in turn said they made a
huge mistake now running him more against Cincinnati, right, they

(44:31):
went too much into Lamar, put too much on Lamar's
play and he just did not live up to it
against since he last week, where.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
I think this week the lean into it.

Speaker 3 (44:38):
And you know, once again you talk about this matchup defensively,
this Ravens team, I kind of love it. Where they've
had KYLEA. Hamilton moving all over the field. This is
really type of game he's really going to take over.
You gets to Rodgers that if you already know you
can't throw the ball twenty plus yards down.

Speaker 2 (44:52):
The field, you're just going to stack the box. You're
going to try to make him.

Speaker 3 (44:55):
Force the ball downfield, because that's where you've seen him
turn the ball over. So I love this match, this
Ravens team, and shocked to see the public is coming
in on this Pittsburgh team. The tickets, the money, it's
all coming on Pittsburgh. Yeah, even five and a half,
it's a good number.

Speaker 1 (45:09):
I'm floored by the way Aaron Rodgers twenty yards downfield?
How about six yards downfield? Don't forget the stat I
gave the other day from Ben Solac in his column
in ESPN dot com. Sixty six percent of his passing
yards are coming with yards after the catch, Like this
is historically bad and so it's gonna be a haul

(45:32):
for him to get the ball downfield. Everyone's seeing it.
Everyone's seeing the same thing, all right, Baltimore Ravens brass
Ball's better the Week presented by hard Rock Bett Cincinnati
at Buffalo. Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite.
You love the Bills here. The number move five and
a half to six, down to six, down from six
to five and a half. The public is all over

(45:54):
the Bengals in this game. You mentioned in sharp calls
the wise guys like the Bengals in this game.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
I have six. I just want people to realize that
they took him heavy.

Speaker 1 (46:03):
At the six, right at the six. It's like, I
can't rep my head around this game yet. I don't
want to invest in the Bills. I don't have any
faith in their defense, and I don't want to invest
in the Bengals. I don't have any faith in their defense.
I think it's like it's a perfect straight against weakness,
strength against weakness game. I don't see an edge for anybody.

(46:24):
It could go either direction.

Speaker 3 (46:28):
No, it's totally fair. And now I give up those
stats Joe Burrow. I mean, you take away the Hamlin
game that got basically canceled out.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
But he's two and zero straight up and against the
spread against this Bills team.

Speaker 3 (46:38):
So you know, clearly early in his career he's matched
up well against his Bills team played well against him.
And you know, I get why there is love for
this Bangles team. Where Jack gave the stats right the
secondary of this Bills team, they're bad against downfield passes.
That's exactly the offense Cincinnati wan's to run. They want
to push the ball downfield. But I just when I
really break this one down, it just feels like This
gonna be a ball control type of game, especially in

(47:00):
the elements. Like we've already talked about the lake effects
that could be happening in Cleveland, could be the same
here in Buffalo, right, could be a really weird weather game,
which that favors this Bill's team. They don't have offensive
line that wants to be in Preasprotec. They have an
offensive line once they run the ball. We saw that
last week with Pittsburgh that you know they want to
just be the heavy, big guys pushing these guys downfield.

(47:20):
And we've seen it with Cincinnati. They don't really have
a pass rush, let on a de tackle that can.

Speaker 2 (47:26):
Stop the run.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
So it feels like the Bills being able to pick
their poison here offensive had to beat them, and you know,
as much grievance we're going to give this Bills defense
how bad they've.

Speaker 2 (47:34):
Been, there are some ways that can attack you.

Speaker 3 (47:36):
Now. I did see Bosa pop up the injury report
not practicing this week, which I know you'd be like, Oh,
it's not that big of a deal. He's actually been
really good for them this year. Yeah, so that's been
a great sign up by them. You definitely need him
back in this type of matchup where you need to
keep Burrow off his spot, and you know, people when
to glaze over at Burrow is not playing healthy. He
is playing hurt. He's talked about it. He's basically got

(47:56):
a special insert on his foot that every time he's
pushed off that toe, he's feeling it.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
He says it's it's pain shooting up his leg.

Speaker 3 (48:03):
But he says he becomes n I'm doing when he's
playing the game because he's got other things going on
in his mind.

Speaker 2 (48:07):
So you know you're.

Speaker 3 (48:09):
Putt You're taking a wounded Joe Burrow as a as
a dog on the road in a spot that Chad
just said that the public is all over it. So
maybe I won't force it into World War five coming Sunday.
But I do really love this Bills team in this number.
But I'm just a little hesitant because the STATA gave
out Joe Burrow is a dog three points are greater
eighteen to three against the spread.

Speaker 2 (48:29):
He just he's a covering machine.

Speaker 3 (48:31):
So I just I'm trying to have to put all
in here on the Bills team where I.

Speaker 2 (48:35):
Kind of like chat I'm a little weary of that.

Speaker 3 (48:36):
Just something I don't trust about this Bills team, but
just just feels like this is the exact time you
want it back this Spills team in this spot because
I just tend to roll bad defenses.

Speaker 1 (48:44):
Let's just see what the weather is on Sunday.

Speaker 2 (48:46):
It's fair.

Speaker 1 (48:49):
Let's talk about the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay
Packers because this game was at six and a half
and I bring it back up because it was moving
in the Packers direction. The public is backing the Packers
right now, a slight money edge towards the Packers, but

(49:11):
an indication that it's pretty split fifty to fifty between
the Bears and the Packers. When it comes to the
professional betting community, like it's another one. I'm being a
little bit wishy washy here. I don't even know if
I'll bet it. I just want to watch the Bears.
I'm not I'm not kidding, Simon. I'm pretty sure I

(49:34):
had a dream about the Bears last night.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
You gotta bet the Bears money lining, brother.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
Yeah, I'll bet the Bear's money line.

Speaker 3 (49:41):
Yeah you got if you're a Bear's fain. It feels
like this the ultimate slave slay the demon. This is uh,
like I talked this is the team that's been in
your guys way for so many years, and you know,
this is the best Bear season since the Mitch Trubisky
double doink. So it's like, I don't know, if I
was a Barris fan, I would be all in on it.

Speaker 2 (50:03):
You're getting a good number.

Speaker 3 (50:04):
But we've talked about this is just like sin and
I this is a huge, shockingly public dog because the
money might be a little even the tickets, it's.

Speaker 1 (50:13):
All over the Bears, the Bears.

Speaker 3 (50:15):
So that's that's very alarming where it's like, oh my god,
this is a ton of money coming on or just
a ton of public coming in on this Bears side.

Speaker 2 (50:22):
But I want to be on Green Bay.

Speaker 3 (50:25):
But I honestly see why this money is coming to
this Bears team, Like it feels like it is warranted
because we've seen this Packers team.

Speaker 2 (50:34):
It's not like they're that great against inconsistent, very inconsistent.

Speaker 3 (50:38):
As well, but like as big favorites too this year,
you know, it's not like they were recovering machine. We've
seen them struggle as a big favorite show. I believe
they started the year zero to six as a six
and six and a half or seven point favorite to
start the season, So you know, there is some things
to take away from this where you know, this Bears team,
they've basically been on this divisional run here. So as

(51:02):
bad as they looked right like they've had some letdown games,
they did dominate that Minnesota team, which, okay, we won't
take much away from that JJ McCarthy that you know,
I don't know if they dominated Detroit, but they did play,
like we talked about, playing with big balls. Lafleur going
for on those fourth downs that was insane. That was
like next level, like he was just playing simply to win.

(51:23):
He did not care about trying to play for field
goals in that game. So I think it's gonna be
same here, Chad. You're gonna see Laflour and kill mode
against you guys, and he's had the Bear's number.

Speaker 2 (51:32):
So I love this game so much.

Speaker 3 (51:35):
Like Chad said, he's gonna probably take the Bears money
line or either set this one out on the other
side where it's like I'm gonna be Oliver Green Bay.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
But just not very confident.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
I thought i'd be more confident come Thursday and be like,
oh yeah, all the pros are with me on this
packer's side.

Speaker 2 (51:48):
This is to the right side.

Speaker 3 (51:49):
I see, I see what people are seeing with the spars,
and I see what the public is scene.

Speaker 2 (51:53):
Where as good as the.

Speaker 3 (51:54):
Screen Bays team is divisional game, you have to throw
a lot of that out and you know, or as
great as he's been down the stretch here, I don't know,
Like this is the type of matchup that I could
see Ben Johnson really challenging him, which he's not had.
You know, he's not been challenged by Bears coaches in
the past. Right we look back on this the Bears
coach reason they did they not had a guy like
we can we can say like Ben Johnson here.

Speaker 2 (52:16):
So I love it.

Speaker 3 (52:17):
This is the exact type of scenario where it's like,
is this the turning of a page or is this
the same old Bears Chad? So, I love it for
all the hooplah off the field stuff we'll be able
to talk about after the fact, but look, we'll do it.

Speaker 2 (52:28):
Chad.

Speaker 3 (52:28):
I'm on Green Bay, but I get while you're taking
a position on the Bear's money line.

Speaker 1 (52:32):
Uh, the schedule was littered with these kind of turn
the page moments and and where are the lions, the
lions of old or the new? Are the chiefs? The
chiefs of old or the chiefs of new? Are the Bears?
The Bears of old or the bears of new? We're

(52:54):
constantly having asked these questions. That's what makes betting so interesting,
is like you have to take a stand and you
have to put your money on the line with an
opinion about where you think something is going to go,
not where it's been. That's what makes it so fascinating.
All I know is I woke up to p in
the middle of the night, and I'm fairly certain when

(53:17):
I woke up, I was dreaming about the Bears, and
I think it was the Bears' screen game. I swear
to God that's what I was dreaming about.

Speaker 3 (53:25):
Bears fans a bet they're over under. They've already hit
their win total for the season eight and a.

Speaker 1 (53:29):
Half, one game that we have made a choice on together.
We are on the same side, the Los Angeles Rams
minus seven and a half versus the Arizona Cardinals. We
know we're going against the wise guys here. We're basically
back in. We're going against the big home dog that
has lost seven games by four points. Or less because

(53:50):
they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns,
and the Rams are coming off their first game of
the year where they were on the road as ten
and a half point favorites and lost outright. I'm okay
back in the Rams here, I'm okay back in Sean
McVay here. I like this defense to get pressure against

(54:11):
Jacobe Brissett. I'm perfectly fine with our position. Are you
still perfectly fine with our position?

Speaker 2 (54:17):
I am.

Speaker 3 (54:18):
It feels you a nice spot to back this Rams
team after embarrassing loss on the road where everything felt
like it was going against them, and this Arizona team,
you know, we we we kind of fell in love
with Jakobe. Were set and it's turn on fault because
of that Dallas game where they were just so impressive,
they played so well. But we've seen it since then.
When they do play they're juggernaut of a division. They

(54:39):
get actually absolutely smoked. And you know, Seattle, I believe
they'd be forty four twenty two.

Speaker 2 (54:45):
Then they played the forty nine ers who beat them.

Speaker 3 (54:46):
I believe forty one to twenty two, and I gave
you that crazy status the first time a team had
given up forty points and back to back week's divisional
foes in like thirty years. So we know historically this
is a horrible, horrible Cardinals defense, and every game they've
come back, and it's been because either team lets him in,
they don't really shut him out, or you know, Jacoby
Brissett just has these incredible moments and like that Bucks game,

(55:09):
the Bucks should have been up double digits, right that
guy went.

Speaker 1 (55:11):
Touchdown, That guy went touchdown.

Speaker 2 (55:13):
Yeah, let them linger. And we've talked about Versett.

Speaker 3 (55:15):
If you let him linger, he's gonna come back in
that back door and get that cover.

Speaker 2 (55:18):
So that would be the only fear for me here.

Speaker 3 (55:20):
But this feels like the absolute type of game where
you know, we see the Rams after a bad loss
with McVeigh put up forty forty two points like these
other divisional teams did against this really bad Cardinals defense.

Speaker 2 (55:30):
And I gave you those stats.

Speaker 3 (55:33):
He's absolutely owned Arizona McVay as the head coach, he
just has their number and matchup scheme wise, he does
really well against them. So not gonna let the big
number scarras off Chad minus seven and a half, I'm
gonna take down this Rams team.

Speaker 1 (55:44):
All right, so we're building a roster here for Sunday.
Last game I want to talk about is Houston and
Kansas City. Kansas City is still at minus three, minus
one twenty at hard Rock Bat mostly three and a
half's elsewhere. As I just said, the chief gone the
way of the Lions. Is it time to get off
them this year? Is there still magic in the number three?

(56:06):
Can they break the trend of losing all these close games?
Will there be regression back to the mean in a
positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs. This game has massive,
massive playoff implications for both teams. It is the tipping
point folk froum moment for these teams in the season.

(56:27):
The Texans defense is awesome, but I'm always going to
be loath to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as
a short favorite in a must have scenario. That is
one that that is a bridge too far. I can't
walk away. I can't be the one who's betting against

(56:50):
someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever
and is still in his prime.

Speaker 3 (56:54):
Yeah, if you don't join the public and the professionals
there on the Texas like Chat talked about it, it's
really about the number right, the chief Team isn't good
enough to be favorite minus three and a half, which
is what I think a lot of pros and the
public are taking that position on which I totally get.
We're talking minus three here at hard Rock, which hopefully
in our contest, God bless hard Rock, they'll give us
two and a half because that will be an automatic

(57:15):
play in my opinion on this chief team, because that,
to me, will be too much a reaction. And this
is me signing the guy who's been fading this Chiefs
team NonStop since that Bills game.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
I think you know it.

Speaker 3 (57:25):
Took a position against them with Denver they are a
minus four favorite, they lost outright. Took up a position
against them against the Colts, think they are minus four
and a half.

Speaker 2 (57:33):
They closed favorite, they won by three.

Speaker 3 (57:36):
Took a position against them with the Dallas Cowboys minus
half plus three and a half on Dallas.

Speaker 2 (57:41):
They lost outright to Dallas.

Speaker 3 (57:42):
So we've seen these last three games, it all comes
down to the last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually
got go the other way, right this Chiefs mathematically, they
can't keep losing these one score games, right, And we've
seen Mahomes tend to succel that this year, it just
not has been that way right. When they get these
close games, it's either he's not had the ball in
his hands and the other team's just eating the clock up,
or he goes in there and it's just not been

(58:04):
Mahomes like right, he's made the mistakes and not brought
his team back from death. So I love how desperate
this Chiefs team's gonna be. But on the flip side,
I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They
know they're playing for their division, their own playoff lives.
So I get why people are taking their position on
this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the
Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and
let the number get to a position where I fle

(58:25):
carble bet in it. It's hit that spot, I'm gonna
take the minus three and pray the Pros keep coming
on Texas and I get a two and a half,
but got no issue taking the minster. I just feel
like this is finally a Chiefs line. This is the
deck spot you want to back Mahomes and this Chiefs team.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
So glad to hear you say that. I so believe
in the Chiefs in this spot, I could be blinded
by it.

Speaker 2 (58:46):
We are, We're definitely we're This is a past performance.

Speaker 3 (58:49):
Bet, I'm happy to have met that where it's like
I just I'm willing to see Mahomes die here. But
this is the exact type of game we talked Mahomes.
They're gonna have to stab them the hard thirty times
to cut his head off before he's dead. He's just
not gonna go quietly into the night. This man is
gonna fight to the last second. And now you're giving
me a minus three on that at home, I gotta
take I have to take that number.

Speaker 1 (59:16):
We could talk about the Eagles at the Chargers for
a second, just because you mentioned it in sharp calls.
I don't think it's a game we're gonna put in
the contest. We're not gonna I can't imagine we're getting
a two and a half. But if you have strong
opinion I'm agnostic.

Speaker 3 (59:30):
With the pros, then like the pros, they're all they're
all in this Chargers team, and they're just even the
publics with the Chargers, and it's just everyone's the same boat.
I think it's just so negative, so bad for this
Eagles team. Where if I told you you can get
this Eagles team, who's pretty healthy minus two and a
half against a one handed Herbert that's out his left

(59:50):
and right tackle, you'd be running to the window with me.
So that's my I can't believe it. Like when I
was talking to pros, I'm like, shit, what am I missing?
Like you guys love this Charger team, I can't believe it.
Like I cannot believe this is not the exact time
you hammer this ego side in this number. It just
the hate has gone too far. I just cannot get over.
It's like, all right, Herbert against bad teams, we don't

(01:00:13):
mind backing them. Him against the Raiders. Yeah, that's exactly.
When you back Herbert him against a great playoff defense
and team, you fade him.

Speaker 2 (01:00:21):
You do not back Herbert here in this spot.

Speaker 3 (01:00:24):
So I might be blind to it, have my biases here,
but I got this number amount of mis three and
a half for this Eagles team.

Speaker 2 (01:00:31):
So you know you're getting a full point of value.

Speaker 3 (01:00:33):
And the fact that publican and professionals are all coming
to the Chargers, it feels like this is a nice
spot to be with the up sportsbook here back in
this Eagles team at Mice two and so maybe I'm
missing something here, but I can't believe it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:44):
It's to me the hate's gone too far.

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
Like Herbert, You're you're a tough son of a bitch here,
but you're not going against, you know, a bad defensive line.
This is a defensive line that can get after a
quarterback and put major pressure on them. So this just
feels like a nice matchup of the SEAGU team.

Speaker 2 (01:01:00):
And yeah, this is a.

Speaker 3 (01:01:03):
Very unique spot for me where I thought I would
be all on the Segos team. But I'm very hesitantly
betting it because I'm just worried there's something I'm missing
here with the SEAGUS team. It just feels way too
easy to getting Eagles Mice two and a half aguns.
Like I said, a one handed Herbert without his left
and right tackle.

Speaker 2 (01:01:18):
Like it's just what am I missing here? I'm missing
something clearly.

Speaker 1 (01:01:22):
All right, let's do a quick word from our sponsor's
hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by
our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet, and They've got big news.
Hard Rock Bet is now live in Michigan. Sign up
today and place your first five dollars sports bet. If
it wins, you get one hundred and fifty dollars in

(01:01:44):
bonus bets on top of your winnings, and if you're
more into casino games, new customers can get up to
one thousand dollars back in casino bonus. If you're not
up money after your first twenty four hours playing slo,
win money or get a casino bonus back. Plus you
also get two hundred bonus spins with winnings paid in cash.

(01:02:08):
Not sure what to place your first bet on, head
over to the hard Rock Bet stats Hub and it'll
help you out. It's loaded with trend streaks and stats
to help guide your picks. Numbers don't lie, and neither
does the data in there. Check out the stats hub now,
get the edge and bet with confidence. Hard rockt offers

(01:02:28):
new promos daily plus big legendary reward drops every Thursday
like Gifts under the Trees, So whenever you're listening, just
open the app and check out what you've got waiting
for you. Download the hard Rock Bet app and make
your first deposit. Sports Welcome offer is payable in bonus bets,

(01:02:49):
not a cash offer. Casino offer issued as non withdrawable
site credits. Ten plus dollar deposit required for two hundred
bonus bins for Huff and More Puff only up to
one thousand dollars back in casino bonus if player has
a net loss on slots after the first twenty four hours.

(01:03:10):
Casino bonus credit has a one times wager requirement offered
by Seminal hard Rock DIGITALLLC. Must be twenty one and
over and physically present in Michigan to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling, call one eight hundred gambler.
All right, Simon, let's talk about the biggest bets.

Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Pull up close pants and be a man.

Speaker 3 (01:03:33):
Yeah, shocking a week.

Speaker 2 (01:03:35):
I'm a little not a little gunshot, but I kind
of am. Honestly.

Speaker 3 (01:03:38):
I usually had a lot more bet this week in
this position. But again, we didn't really talk about much.
I think in a pretty large position on the Saints
like that matchup. Maybe we'll talk a little bit more
Sunday for dogs, that's probably my one of my bigger
spots right now is them in Washington and the Jaguars,
And for favorites. You know, I can't quit it, Cleveland, Baltimore.

(01:03:59):
I just I really love both those favorites and the
Chiefs and minus three. I really love that one. So
nothing huge yet. Maybe comes Sunday I'll have some really
big bets. But right now and not just dipping my
toes and my whole foots in the water. I put
some good money into it, but I'm not I haven't
dived in yet. I'm just a little hesitan. I want
to see what the weather report is, what the injured
report has come today?

Speaker 1 (01:04:18):
All right? Underdog money line, Parley, my dog blocks.

Speaker 3 (01:04:26):
Your dog, Your dog blocks mot dog.

Speaker 1 (01:04:30):
Who do we want to do this week? I would
say Jaguars, Yeah, Jets.

Speaker 2 (01:04:36):
Jets, and then let's do uh. For the third one,
let's do Washington.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
All right? And then I think for the favorites, we
want to do the Rams. I made a list the
other day. We want to do.

Speaker 3 (01:04:48):
We'll take take them out of five and a half. Though, okay,
I'll do the money line. Do the five and a half, Seattle, Seattle,
I do the same thing, take it a five and
a half. I wouldn't do money line, and for money lines,
I would do Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:05:03):
I think we both agree on that one, right, Yeap.

Speaker 1 (01:05:07):
Baltimore O would.

Speaker 2 (01:05:08):
Say, how do we not get Ravens in there. We
love that one.

Speaker 1 (01:05:10):
Yeah, Buffalo for the last one.

Speaker 3 (01:05:13):
Yeah, I'll do Buffalo. Yeah, I feels I mean, I'm
with you. I don't want to do Green Bay.

Speaker 1 (01:05:20):
Let's do Buffalo, Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver.

Speaker 3 (01:05:24):
If you don't love Buffalo, because that is risky, right,
we take We're going against a good quarterback, all right.
I gave you the stats Denver bone Knicks as a
favorite fifteen and oh straight up. So if you want
to get bone Nicks in there, you can easily get
that down to two and a half, one and a half.

Speaker 2 (01:05:39):
You don't have to take the money line.

Speaker 1 (01:05:41):
Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, Seattle and the Rams take them
down to minus five and a half. That is our
favorites money line parlay. Simon, it's time for Sharp versus Square.
We missed it last week with the condensed show schedule.

(01:06:03):
Give me your should we do? I don't want to
do Atlanta Versy. I don't know who's gonna be playing
in that game yet, go ahead.

Speaker 3 (01:06:11):
I mean, if for my square side, I was thinking
the Chiefs minus three. But I'll stick to my m
O in this in this part where I always go sharp.
So give me give me the Saints plus eight and
a half.

Speaker 1 (01:06:23):
Interesting, very interesting, Okay, I would say, oh boy, Uh,
Chat's choice was the Jets brass Balls. I think was
the Ravens. Simon says was the Commanders. We haven't done

(01:06:45):
rock in a hard place yet. Uh, all right, give
me the Jacks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:54):
Wow. It was full circle. Yeah, my god.

Speaker 1 (01:06:57):
I know, well, honestly down to them in the Browns,
and I feel like the Browns on Sunday, we want
to use them as rock and a harp place. That's
what I'm thinking. Okay, I think I think it's gonna
be a I think it's just gonna be a hard
conversation on Sunday about the Browns. All right, this has
been Sharper Square. We're part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sunday on Sharper Square YouTube.

(01:07:22):
We're going to eat drop on an intimate conversation that
Simon and I have well, panic will make utterly human
decisions regret the rest of the day. We'll be back
on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty ish.
Watch or listen at YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel also download us from Apple Pods, Spotify,
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leupus five stars,

(01:07:43):
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.
I love you. This isn't going You're not at all.
This is ANDNFL, which stands for not prolonged.

Speaker 2 (01:07:56):
When you make them golls, I'll be selling groceries.

All Episodes

Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 14 BETS: Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers, Rams-Cardinals and more

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Colin Cowherd

Jason McIntyre

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

Are You A Charlotte?

Stuff You Should Know

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;} Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL WEEK 14 BETS: Bengals-Bills, Texans-Chiefs, Steelers-Ravens, Bears-Packers, Rams-Cardinals and more