Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 3 Bets: Cowboys-Bears, Chiefs-Giants, Rams-Eagles, Steelers-Patriots & more

NFL Week 3 is here and expert bettor Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter narrow down the best bets for all the big football matchups: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, and more.

All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet

Timeline:

02:00 - Intro

03:24 - Wiseguy Hotline

06:47 - Packers-Browns

11:49 - Texans-Jaguars 

19:03 - Steelers-Patriots

24:31 - Rams-Eagles

33:13 - Colts-Titans 

41:03 - Broncos-Chargers

48:21 - Cowboys-Bears

55:04 - Chiefs-Giants

1:03:51 - Lions-Ravens

1:05:51 - Falcons-Panthers

1:06:53 - Cardinals-49ers

1:08:33 - Moneyline Underdog Parlay

1:10:25 - Moneyline Favorites Parlay

1:11:18 - Survivor Pick

1:14:19 - Sharp vs Square

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the square sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman and I
am joined by my co host, Mike eff my companion,
my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:22):
I feel so good?

Speaker 2 (00:24):
I do?

Speaker 1 (00:24):
I feel great. I'm gonna feel worse after we tell
people what our brass balls better the week is. But
right now it's like that run up before you know
the bad news is coming and you're just going to
enjoy those final moments. This is our Thursday, Week three
episode where we narrow the options on our quest to
agree for our five favorite picks of this week. By

(00:50):
the way, for housekeeping, we are throwing up the graphic
with our record for the five picks we have landed
on during the Sunday morning shows so far in weeks one, one,
in two. We will normally do this on Tuesday. We
missed this week. I want to make sure we showcased
it six and four in the year four and one
in week one, two and three, Hard Fought two and three.

(01:12):
In Week two reminder, subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,
Apple Pods, Spotify, however you want. We are there. Let's
get into this thing, Simon. We got to check in
with the wise guys. Let's go to the wise Guy hotline.
Wise Guy hot Line.

Speaker 3 (01:32):
All right, Chad, so let's start where I feel like
games we didn't talk much about. I think people just
want to hear it because we're probably not gonna talk
about it again. They just want to know what the
pro side is for those games. A lot of pro
love for the Bucks this week. A couple guys I
talked to really love the Bucks. I got no read,
no real opinion on that one. So found that pretty
interesting that the professionals like the Bucks, just because.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
I really liked the Jets there. I thought it was
a good number. Maybe I'll just deer clear of it.

Speaker 3 (01:58):
There's other games I like a lot more or so
that one jumped out of.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
Can I just say, I'm so glad to hear you
say that, because that number is moved in the in
the direction of the Jets, and it was at seven.
Now at six and a half, I was afraid we
were gonna have to have a long conversation about that
about it, and I can't I can't get there. I
feel like the Jets are the right side, but I
can't get.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
They might be, but I was shocked.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
I thought it was gonna be just like last week,
all of Jets love. But I see, I see the
love for the Bucks.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
I just can't get over the injuries to the Bucks
though their whole offensive line is just yeah banged up.
So yeah, all.

Speaker 3 (02:33):
Right, let's let's get to Uh it's gonna be a
week of just dogs, jed. So I'll start at the
top of this with the calls here that everyone I've
talked to you knows this is a week to take
these road divisional dogs, and there's a bunch of them,
and it's a unique spot where you've probably heard this trend.

Speaker 2 (02:53):
Basically, Houston zero and two against the spread.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Now they're on the road as a divisional dog, Denver
owing two against the spread, now on the road a
divisional dog. Miami Dolphins only two against the spread on
the road as a divisional dog, and it's exact spot
since two thousand and three teams in this exact spot,
so on the road a divisional dog after being owing
to against the spread hits an eighty percent clip, so
people got to hold their nose and realize that the

(03:19):
pros love the Dolphins this week. The pros love the Texans,
and the pros love the Denver So those are three
teams that jump out right away that I get what
they love it. The trends back it up, and I'm
excited for that big games that we dive into here.
But those three so many calls about it, and I
was just so happy because I love him as well,
and the other ones will just go through really quick

(03:41):
as we're going to talk about him as well. Browns
tons of professional love, Eagleson's professional love, and you know,
not that big of a shocker. The Bears has been
a big talking point for the pros. So the most
hate I got about all our pick is definitely the
Chiefs bet, and I'm sure we'll talk about that game

(04:01):
with some more, but yeah, all mostly love for our
picks heading this week, and I think people were going
to see a good week. I like maybe two three
bets including totals this week. I have like five or
six sides I really like, and I've beten through pretty
of you, so I'm really excited to talk about this
week three.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
Uh, no surprise that everyone hates the Chiefs and we're
gonna listen.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
To your pa.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
They hate it, and like, uh, we're going to talk
about it. We've we're going to talk about the Texans,
We're going to talk about the Bears, We're going to
talk about the Broncos, We're going to talk about the Browns,
all all those things. We are going to talk about
the Chiefs. I got some thoughts on the Chiefs and

(04:46):
we'll get to let's talk about Green Bay and Cleveland.
So look the number seven and a half at hard
Rock that right now, it's moved down. It was at
eight and a half, and you've already pinpointed Cleveland is
sharp side. I do. I do have a confession to make.
I've been holding off on this game. And then yesterday

(05:07):
afternoon it was at eight and a half. It was
and it was eight or seven and a half at
most places there was one book where was it eight
and a half? Eight and a half minus one ten?
And I'm like what am I doing? Like this is
the game we are supposed to love betting. This is
the game where we say to ourselves, we know what

(05:29):
we're doing. We see the money going in the opposite,
in the Browns direction. So I felt like I had
a little bit of a kpi for lack of a
better term, to get all corporate y like. The majority
of the money is on the Packers. We're back in
the two team. That's the trend. I'm not saying it's

(05:52):
a final five, but Simon, I'm drawing the line in
the sand. Okay, this has been the year of the favorites.
Last year was the year of the favorites. The Browns
don't cover this game. I don't know that we can
trust anything we've ever known about betting underdogs. That's how

(06:12):
I feel about it.

Speaker 2 (06:13):
That's an overreaction.

Speaker 3 (06:15):
It's people are going to see theme of this week.
I think you're kind of talking about it a little
bit here. It's just overreaction to two weeks of data
and the general public thinking they have a read on
these teams, that they have no idea what these teams
are really are. And you the more you dive into
matchups and numbers, a lot of it is luck in

(06:36):
different teams matchups that skew people's perceptions, and you know,
some teams just come out flat with other teams come
out flawless right after even some of these teams. It's
funny reading stuff like here and b writers have horrible
weeks of practice and they come out game den They've
just been incredible these first two weeks. So it is
hard to get a read, and I think the general
public all reacts stuff, and this is the prime example

(06:57):
of that.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
And these I don't love. I do.

Speaker 3 (07:01):
I do love trends, but I don't love them as
much later in the season I do in these early
weeks here and my favorite one is for this exact
spot where Chad, Chad feels sick to.

Speaker 2 (07:10):
His stomach betting it because he knows he has to bet.

Speaker 3 (07:12):
And there's a good reason that you feel that way, Chat,
because this is another long term winner where you're getting
a home dog greater than seven.

Speaker 2 (07:20):
Points in the first couple weeks of the season.

Speaker 3 (07:22):
So it's a unique spot when in the first nine
games of the year, if there's a home dog at
seven points or more, they've covered a fifty nine percent
success rate since on last twenty years, which is crazy,
I think. But since twenty twenty thirty thirty seven to
ten and two against the spread, and just the last
three seasons, this exact spot, this home divisional dog or

(07:44):
I shouldn't say divisional dog, this home dog of seven
points are more, they're eighteen one and two Chad, since
twenty twenty in this spot, or since the last three seasons.
So you look at the last three years, and we've
talked about the death of the dog, which is true. Right,
maybe we'll be putting this one in the money line,
but it shows right there.

Speaker 2 (08:03):
The public overreacts. They move this number, especially early in
the year, and you.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
Know this was probably six and a half six, and
you know, Green Bay looks like gods on Thursday night.
The Browns look like a horrible team that gets rolled
to the general public.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
And this moves two three points like this touch nine.

Speaker 3 (08:22):
So, like Chaddie said, there's one book out there, one
very public book that steals eight and a half. This
is heading to seven and a half eight. So you're
gonna bet it. You'll be sick or something if it loses,
like we're both gonna be. But long term, bet this spot.
Bet these type of numbers. The Browns, we know they're
a bad team. We're just trusting the number that they
can backthrow this or keep us close and remember all

(08:43):
the injuries to that offensive line of Green Bay and
this is probably one of the best he lines on
football of Cleveland. Like, I can't believe how great they
were against that Ravens team.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
It was just Lamar, It's just another level. So it
didn't matter.

Speaker 3 (08:55):
But people will see like this is going to be
a really tough test for that front and Bay and
I do love this.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
Number, Simon. Every trend you talk about is flashing bright,
bright green in addition to betting a team off of
a blowout because you know the line is gonna be
inflated against them. Everything says bet the Browns. We are

(09:25):
betting the Browns. Will it be in the final five?
I don't know. I feel like there's gonna be four
games we feel great about and we're gonna end up
putting the Browns in and probably feeling pretty bad about it.
And I'm telling you right now, if the Browns don't cover,
I'm never betting another underdog as long as we live.
I'm going to be betting favorites. I'm just betting favorites

(09:45):
from week.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
You're gonna love some of those books.

Speaker 1 (09:49):
Houston is a two point underdog at Jacksonville actually it's
down to one and a half at hard Rock. So
we're seeing the line move in the direction of the
tex And this has been a weird line, okay, because
it was at one and a half, it was trending
actually in the direction of Pick. Then all of a
sudden on Tuesday afternoon, bounced way up to two and

(10:12):
a half, dropped back down to two. I don't quite
understand this one, but I'm telling you right now, we're
making this our rock and a hard place, hard Rock
better the week because it is a little bit challenging.
We talk about division dogs. We don't really know what
this Texans team is. And whatever CJ. Shroud was his

(10:35):
rookie year is not what he was last year, and
it's not what he's been in the first two games.
This offensive line really can't block anybody. The offense itself
is stagnant. They really didn't do anything after the first
two drives against the Bucks. I'm not counting that Chubb
touchdown because Todd Bowles basically let them score. So this

(11:00):
team struggling, and I think this is as much a
bet against Jacksonville to me as it is a bet
on the Texans. It's a bet against Jacksonville and a
bet against this on the spot as it is the Texans.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
No brainer, easy bet. If you love this show, you
gotta take tests. I'm so mad this numbers movement because
two and a half was a real number from this
Texas team last night and this morning, and I kept
bending it and I kept checking the news being like,
am I missing?

Speaker 2 (11:30):
Is someone hurt that it was? I here? But I
think we talk all the time.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
There's just a lot of head fakes with these professional betters,
and I think they just moved the line, got a
good number and then bet it back down and.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
Another again.

Speaker 3 (11:43):
I talked about the trend of these divisional dogs on
the road, oh and two against the spread.

Speaker 2 (11:47):
Houston fits that.

Speaker 3 (11:48):
And it's another spot where the total if it's less
than forty five and it's a Week three divisional game,
and that there's a dog again that hasn't covered too
straight since twenty eleven. Thisept thirteen to oh spot for
this Texas team on this trends where it's basically a
team that's undervalued because the public is totally off of them.

(12:10):
Professional betters a little hesitant because what you had just
talked about. CJ he's given people doubt right now, right,
And I have questions about CJ like everyone else, but
I'm still he still does things around like I see
the talent, and you can go back and look last year,
the last five games of the season, he played at
that level we saw the year before. He was thrown

(12:31):
for over three hundred yards in those games. Touchdowns, yeah, playoffs.
He showed up against the Chargers like CJ's got it
in him. It's all about he being comfortable.

Speaker 2 (12:40):
And you've seen a quarterback that's uncomfortable right now for
this Houston team.

Speaker 3 (12:43):
So I get the people's hesitation with this one. But
this is a very unique spot where Houston's actually kind
of the guys in this in this game right in
this matchup, they've owned the Jaguars last few times they
played him. I know every team is different, but it's
also a CJ spot. CJ is a favorite. He's not
that good as a dog. In his career. He's eleven

(13:05):
eleven and seven against the spread, And okay, that's not
that big of a deal. It is when you look
at how bad he is as a favorite when the
public overvalues him, when he when they started to doubt
him undervalue him. That shows that TJ and the Texans
tend to show up. CJ in the Texans show up here,
so short week people are hesitant about that as well,
because they played, you know, on Monday night. In his

(13:28):
early career, he's four and one on short weeks against
the spread. So he comes up really preparing these exact spots.
And it's an AFC South game, and the AFC South
has a weird trend right now going of these dogs
in this in this division the last few years, they're
eleven to one against the spread. So we've seen the

(13:49):
dogs in this division tend to get over undervalued by
the public and the favorites get a little overvalued. There's
two games this week in this division, both dogs you know,
Tennessee and the Houston Texans. Here their numbers have moved
against them, and that's again I'm upset. I wish this
was two and a half on the show, two and
a half in our contest, no brainer, easy bet.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
At one and a half.

Speaker 3 (14:10):
I'm still probably in on them for our contest because
I just think this is such a good spot with
such a desperate team in Texans and their defense, this
is kind of a perfect match for Demiko Ryans and
the defense he runs with the Texans against the Jaguars
zone blocking scheme. And you know, we saw that teams

(14:32):
in this zero to two spot. It's kind of a
make or break spot for them this season. So yeah,
would we be shock chat we're sitting here in the
Texas are zero and three.

Speaker 2 (14:39):
We wouldn't be.

Speaker 3 (14:40):
But the amount of value're getting on the line as
them as a dog when they're clearly the better team
of these two teams, to me, it really sticks out
about how far they have fallen because if they win
that Bucks game, this is probably them minus two, minus
two and a half, and Baker pulled the rabbit a
hat and now they're a two point dog at a
couple of books one and a half dogs. So I

(15:00):
love that you're lined up on this one with me here.
I felt like you're a hesitant on Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
I see you've come around pretty big year, as we
hadn't on Thursday show.

Speaker 1 (15:07):
Well, you know what, I also started thinking about and
you're mentioning a lot of trends, and we've talked about this.
I love the trends as much as anybody, but also
I feel like, as I did my self scouting from
last year, I just let the trends lead the way
from me instead of letting letting the trends help support

(15:30):
ideas that I had. And so I'm trying to be
more thoughtful about the trends this year. And I looked
at it.

Speaker 3 (15:36):
Explain yourself with the trends every week. I'm gonna give
trends chat. You don't need every week to explain yourself
about the trends.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
Yeah, but I feel like I do because no one cares.
Because I'm not betting this based on the trends. All right,
I'm betting this good for you?

Speaker 2 (15:50):
Then don't do that. Don't bet this game because of
the trends.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
I'm just letting people know that there's day that backs up,
and there's trends early in the season here that backs up.

Speaker 2 (15:57):
Why this number is what it is?

Speaker 1 (15:58):
Can I explain why I actually like the game, why
we're together.

Speaker 2 (16:02):
Just every week? Don't be like and here again, people,
I don't really care about the trends. This is why
I like the game. We get it. You don't care
about trends.

Speaker 1 (16:09):
Okay, I like the game, and I do care about trends.
I like the game because I look at this matchup
and whatever we think of the Rams against the Eagles,
they're a playoff caliber team. Whatever we think of the Bucks,
who might have gotten lucky in Week one against the
Falcons and might have gotten lucky in Week two against

(16:30):
the Texans, they're a playoff caliber team. The Texans have
now lost to two playoff caliber teams in relatively close games.
The Jags beat themselves one week and then beat up
on what might be one of the worst teams in
the NFL in Week one. So the reason why to
play this game is because I think the team is
probably more talented than their record shows, versus a team

(16:53):
that maybe isn't as talented as their record shows. We
can be on the same side and get there from different.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
English I know, no more disclaimers, though, we get.

Speaker 1 (17:02):
It Pittsburgh and New England. New England is a one
and a half point underdog. Look, I thought this would
move towards the Pats. Uh, it's moved a little bit
in the direction of the Steelers. As far as the juice,
I'm just really down on the Steelers, and we talked

(17:23):
about this on Tuesday. Their defense just isn't very good.
I also think Rogers is pretty pedestrian. Christian Gonzales, the
Patriots defensive back, did practice this week limited on Wednesday.
Do I all of a sudden believe in Vrabel again?
You've been telling me I have to believe in Vrabel?
Am I believing in Vrabel right now?

Speaker 3 (17:45):
I know it feels like we're supposed to in this spot,
right And I know that historically, you know, Tomlin's actually
struggled in this exact spot, and the trends look at
that and they're just like, Okay, it shows that Tomlin
as a favorite I struggled on the road.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
He's also struggled historically against his Patriots team.

Speaker 3 (18:03):
Doesn't matter if Belichick had Brady or you know, Mac
Jones or whoever in their quarterback. This has just never
been a fravable spot. And Aaron Rodgers surprisingly owing Tuna's
career playing against New England in New England, So you know,
for able, For me, I think we're in the alignment
of he does bring something to this team, and that's

(18:24):
gonna show itself all season. It's really about us believing
in Drake May if we're going to take this spot here, Chad,
and that's that's the toughest spot spot here for me
us putting this on the contest where I'm betting this.
People don't know what side of on I'm betting the Patriots.
I'm on the Patriots. I like the number. I have
him as a favorite. But Drake may, you know, best
game of his career in no doubt last week against Miami.

(18:46):
But we talked Miami so bad and I go back
and watch and it's like, I see a lot of
the good. We do see a lot of the bad
and what can give you pause? And you know this
Steelers front, like we said, they've got injured and everything
like that, but none of it really falls to TJ.
He's actually been pretty dominant this year, especially in the
sense that you can't run to a side of the field.

(19:07):
And there's just a lot that makes me nervous in
this game betting wise.

Speaker 2 (19:13):
But I just can't. I can't get over the fact,
like you said, the Patriots are still a dog and
it's moved up to one and a half. So we
saw last week the professionals, they came in really heavy
on the Steelers that we were talking three and a
half on the Seahawks Sunday morning, So it's interesting that
they're coming on their side again. I feel like we're on.

Speaker 3 (19:34):
The same page, like we just Rogers just looks like
a quarterback that can't push the ball downfield, and teams
kind of know that, and they're just stacking up the
front against them. In the defense they can't stop the run.
You expect to see a high dosage of Trevon Henderson, who,
yeah he doesn't look like in past block, but there's
no denying how talent is when he gets the ball
in his hand.

Speaker 2 (19:53):
So I see ways of the Patriots attacking the Steelers team.

Speaker 3 (19:57):
But yeah, it's it's tough for me to really, you know,
slam the table your by this Patriots team and say
it's one of my favorite bets.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
Yeah it's. Drake May is the conundrum. I'm just not
I'm not going to be fooled by how well he
did against the Dolphins secondary because the week before he
didn't look that good.

Speaker 2 (20:19):
But the Raiders might be a good defense too.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
That's the thing that's like Drake May trying to getting
the benefit of doubt here where it's like this is
this is a game he should be able to light
up this secondary.

Speaker 1 (20:32):
The Rams at the Eagles. So this number is at
three at hard Rock bet, I think it's trending towards three.
At most other places it's still at three and a half,
but if you look at the the Juice, it's trending
towards three. I'm surprised that when we did some wise

(20:55):
Guy called the wise Guy Hotline that you were hearing
all this love about the Eagles, because I feel like
the number of texts I've gotten this week about about
the Rams and how much people love the Rams. It's
not throwing me off, but it's making me hope the
number gets to three everywhere because I really want to

(21:18):
bet the Eagles. So you're telling me that the sharp
side here from the conversations you've had is Philadelphia.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
It could be true based on the number right early
in the week, almost everyone I talked to was on
the Rams side when it was four or four and
a half. So I do think it's just based on
the number right hard Rock now at three, I'd still
take Eagles at three and a half. Honestly, minus three
and a half, I'm I'm looking at this game. Is
I get why you'd feel more confident about betting the

(21:49):
Rams team, right? They look like an absolute juggernaut. Where
you look at the Eagle stats, I mean something crazy, right,
Hurts hasn't thrown for over one hundred and forty yards,
or maybe it's one hundred and fifty. Ever is it's
a really low through two weeks per game, and the
offense looks like it's struggling.

Speaker 2 (22:05):
Everything's really tough to do.

Speaker 3 (22:07):
The rams they're coming off arguably their best performance of
the McVeigh Stafford eir right, they were really put it together,
and it's interesting how they forget how that team was
totally out of sync and it kind of took a
couple turnovers and things to get that juice flowing for them.
And this actually is a bad spot historically for McVeigh

(22:28):
and Stafford when they're playing against teams that are basically
above five hundred on the road together as a dog,
they're five and nine against the spread of this exact spot.
So this is a unique thing where they're pretty good
actually traveling east, but as a dog against a really
good team, they're bad in this spot historically, And that
could just be about more about how we feel about

(22:48):
where it's like, well, if you look back, it probably
makes sense where if you're getting Stafford and McVeigh is
a four and a half five point dog or a
three point dog against a good team, you're probably going
to be more trying to take them because that's you know,
that's more likely than to cover that number. You feels
like in your mind it's like they're just as good
as this team they're playing.

Speaker 2 (23:07):
Why not take the doking.

Speaker 3 (23:08):
I think that's what the public's doing here with professionals,
And this feels like a little bit like the Chiefs
last week, where that felt like not the lazy pro number,
but it did right the pros that were telling me
to take the Chiefs, it kind of felt a little
lazy and just being like, well it's my homes he
doesn't go own two and all. They're like little reasons

(23:28):
like that where it's like, you know, this Rams team,
they're just a better team right now when you really
dive into it, they're actually really bad against pass rush,
like they're O line has major problems and it's been
mitigated by Stafford m McVeigh and adding Adams and Pukinakua
playing out of his mind like there's ways to get
around it. But you saw a little bit in that

(23:50):
Houston game against a good defense, how much they struggled,
and the Eagles don't aren't going to kick three field
goals against his Rams defense, which is what Houston did.
So I feel like people overact a little bit to
this RAMS team and overacting the Eagles struggle on offense
that it's just a complete team there. Their offense is
behind the page right now. It's very simple and basic.
But I think this is really about the Eagles defense.

(24:11):
So this is a great matchup for them, and the
fear of the second corner against Adams or Puka whatever,
you know, whoever Jackson has to cover for the Eagles.
That could be the major weakness we're overlooking here. But
I just see so many holes on this offensive line
of this RAMS team that I think the Eagles fronts
can be able to attack. And yeah, offensively, you know,

(24:33):
we've seen it this RAMS team. They have a good front,
but they cannot stop the run, and that's that's not
improved that much.

Speaker 2 (24:39):
In my opinion. They got lucky.

Speaker 3 (24:40):
They faced two teams that just can't run the ball
in the first two weeks. It's gonna be a really
interesting game. Where are we overacting to this RAMS team?
Or am I undertelling this Eagles struggles and they're problems
on offense and is that gonna pop up here in
this game? So I'm really excited for this one because
it's gonna tell us a lot about these two teams
early on here.

Speaker 2 (24:58):
Where the Rams.

Speaker 3 (24:59):
Win, they're gonna be looked at as a very fur
real team right now. Where if they lose and the
Eagles do win by three or four, whatever it is,
I still think people are gonna have their doubts about
this Eagles team. So it's an interesting lineup and spot
for both these teams.

Speaker 1 (25:15):
Well, look, you nail the dilemma here. Are the Eagles
just a really good team that knows their roster, knows
their talented and is gonna build and build and build
as the season goes on a little bit like the
Chiefs used to do right when they were at their
absolute peak, they would just get better and better as

(25:37):
the season went on. They didn't they didn't sweat any criticism,
they didn't sweat how they looked when they were winning
games early in the year. They knew that as the
season went on, they were just going to get better
and better. And then you have to ask yourself are
the Rams? Is there any sort of fraudulent framing for
the Rams because they beat a Texans OH line that

(25:59):
isn't that great, they beat a Titan Z line that
is really bad, and Stafford and Puka and DeVante found
their rhythm when the Titans started giving the ball away.
So I have the same questions you do, Like I
want to be on the Eagles here. I was kind
of hoping you'd talk me out of it because.

Speaker 2 (26:21):
I want to think that.

Speaker 3 (26:22):
Once his number got the three at hard Rock, I
was like, we have we have to take this.

Speaker 1 (26:26):
I'm gonna I'm going to bet the Eagles as soon
as it gets the three, and it'll get there. You know,
I'm in Connecticut, obviously. Uh. Here's my question. It's part
of partly a joke, partly real. What would you set
the line on the Eagles being called for a penalty
on a Toush push because they will be like too

(26:46):
much attention, too many calls from McVeigh to the home office,
too much film going around about their false starts, and
you know, whatever they're doing on the Toushbush, there's going
to be a penalty called on the Toush Bush.

Speaker 3 (27:00):
The real question is will be called on the third
and one or on a fourth and one?

Speaker 1 (27:05):
Right, And I'm like saying it jokingly, but I think
there's potential impact here. Will it be called on a
fourth and one at the goal line? And does that
take points off the board? And that has an impact
on the spread and a short in when the numbers
so short. So I don't know how much I should
be thinking about that.

Speaker 2 (27:21):
Well, both sides are being very petty.

Speaker 3 (27:23):
Apparently the eaglesen in film of basically the Chiefs is
lining up in the neutral zone like the entire time
they did it. It's like all their heads and fingers
and hands are in the neutral zone. So I think
it's just both sides are being so petty. I don't
know the NFL. Maybe they'll just let it be as
it is and just be like, if this is totally
on you guys for not building this play out and
we'll deal.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
With it in the off season. So I'm with you.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
It's this is definitely it feels like the highest level
of hate that this touch bush has had from people
ex referees and people in major positions of the NFL.
So yeah, it's pretty interesting to see what you're saying
is true, where it's like, are they gonna call it
on a third and one or will be fourth and
one of the fourth and just totally kill what Chad
saying this bet we're making. But yeah, it's uh, it's

(28:07):
it's gonna interesting what these refs do this week.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
It's actually a great prop market that somebody should be creating.
Like minus one thousand a penalty gets called, then maybe
minus seven hundred to get called on third and one,
minus five hundred, it's called on fourth and one. Minus
three hundred, it's called on third and one the goal line.
Minus two hundred, it's called on fourth and one at

(28:30):
the goal line. How many points will the what's the
over under on how many points the Eagles will lose
out on because of penalties called in the Toush push.
You could create an entightly new derivative market on Eagle
Toush push props.

Speaker 2 (28:47):
One Gan Herd stat here, that's just mind blowing.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
When he plays against a team above five hundred and
he's a favorite at home, he is seventeen to noer
in his last seventeen games straight up in this exact spot.
So now that it's at three, I'm just say, it's
it's how can you I bet the minus three in
the Eagles?

Speaker 2 (29:02):
Of course that's kind of stat It's just it might
be ugly. He might win it close, but he just
tends to ones these exact games, as.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
He said to Chris Jones, Right, yeah, uh, Indy got
up to four and a half on the road at
Tennessee at hard rockets back down to three and a half.
Uh wow, Yeah, I gotta tell you, are we feeling
regretful because we were pretty high on the Colts on Tuesday?

(29:32):
And did we were we too excited about what we
have seen? And did we make a mistake?

Speaker 2 (29:41):
No, I'm I'm happy we got the three.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
I think that's what our excitement was the fact that, Yeah,
that's why I love.

Speaker 2 (29:47):
Our Sunday night show.

Speaker 3 (29:48):
It's we're literally doing live lines after an insane week
of football, and that's usually the first or second time
me and Chat are even seeing these live lines because they're.

Speaker 2 (29:57):
Coming out live while we're on the show. To me,
that's what we were exciting about. Right.

Speaker 3 (30:00):
A good initial read, and if you did take the
MIAs three and a half depends what stay you live in.
That's not that terrible read either. Because most books are
still four and a half on this line. So to me,
the reason you're hesitant about it is it's it's been Yeah,
it's just so public, right, Like this is when we

(30:21):
know all the trends everything else was going to point
to this Tennessee team And like I gave that crazy
stat since twenty eleven, whin the winless teams in week
three they are a divisional dog with the totals less
than forty five.

Speaker 2 (30:37):
Thirteen to zero, Tennessee's in there. Tennessee literally fits that trend.

Speaker 3 (30:41):
So it's a historica a nice spot for this team
in week three that you know they tend to bounce back,
But when you look at the underlying issues, Chad, that's
why I can't get over it with this Tennessee team
is they cannot stop the run. And Taylor, as great
as Daniel Jones's looked, he has, Taylor has been the
biggest life force bringing like birth into this Colts team.

(31:04):
Of yeah, he's got a pass the game now, there's
not a safety down in the box. He's running against
a normal front. You've seen him explode at that backfield
and the way they're using warrant all this stuff on
their offense. It's like, I can see it carrying.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
The books are basically setting this line being like show us,
because we've seen this time and time again. Time you
start two and zero really hot, look incredible, and then
falter against a team that hasn't looked that great in
week three.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
Right, that's just football, like football being really good three
four weeks in a row. Yes, that's normal for a
Josh Allen Lamar. The list might stop right there. Maybe
you could say Mahomes like when he had the weapons,
but just quarterbacks to be consistent three four weeks straight,
that's what that's It just doesn't happen, that's what. That's

(31:53):
the difference between these great quarterbacks and ones that are bad.
And that's this number is basically saying that the Daniel Jones,
it's like show So the books professionals, you like, they're
going to be coming in on that Tennessee side because
it is a great spot, a great number, and sure
Colts are gonna win. They're not gonna win by more
than a field goal, is what the books are saying here.
So I do find this number fascinating. When it moved

(32:15):
on the four and a half that made sense to me,
I can't believe it's come back down. Like to me,
four and a half. The professionals would bet it, but
you just keep it there the four and a half.
The book, we're still going to take the Colts of four.

Speaker 2 (32:26):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (32:26):
So pretty interesting. The hard Rock and a couple other
books have moved it back to three and a half.
That's that's really respecting money that's moved it down because
it's this is early in the week, still Thursday here,
Like this is like when they win all their bills, teasers,
whatever they're doing tonight, all that money's gonna come back
in on this Colt side. So it could go back up,
but if you want the Colts number, I would be

(32:47):
shocked to ever see it get back to three.

Speaker 2 (32:48):
I think mines three and a half right now is
los it gets well.

Speaker 1 (32:52):
You just said it's really interesting about the Titans. There's
times to bet the dogs in the division in a
spot almost blindly. We're doing it a little bit with
the Texans. We're going to talk about the Broncos too.
With the Titans. What's giving me hesitancy and we talked
about this on Tuesday, was Jonathan Taylor against this defensive

(33:17):
line and this defense overall that is giving up a
league worst five point four yards per carry. Shane Steikeen
is calling good plays right now and understanding how to
keep Daniel Jones within the framework of his comfort zone.
Part of that is just giving the ball to Jonathan
Taylor at the right time, who's looked amazing. And so

(33:39):
that to me is what I'm holding. That's the handmail
on the roller coaster for me right now. Is this
rushing game against a really bad Titans rushing defense. That's it.

Speaker 3 (33:52):
Yeah, It's like I said, it's just they're just saying
showing me Daniel Jones because right now he's likely the
second or third best quarterback in football. Like him against
the Blitz all that, his numbers are incredible. Him and
Steichen are just so on line running this offense. So,
like you said, it's it's really interesting. By the book,
they're kind of taking a stand here and the fact

(34:13):
that this numbers come back down, it's they're feeling pretty confident, clearly.
But I still I'm still believe in our position. But
like you said, I don't know if I'm gonna be
making us force this one in. I'm kind of I
kind of learned our lesson last week with Dallas that
I'm not gonna try to force in the super super
chalk favorite of the week exactly.

Speaker 1 (34:32):
That that's as I'm thinking about our game plan for Sunday.
I'm not loving anyone that's super Chalky, and so it's
very possible we're in there with five underdogs. We're gonna
have to to live with that. Today's show is brought
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(35:58):
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(37:25):
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(37:50):
Denver plus two and a half at the Chargers, two
and a half at hard Rock. Bet touched three for
a second the other day, but generally just been sitting
at two and a half. This was your Simon says,
you were mostly worried that this would be a wise
guy play and moved to or less. But yet from

(38:11):
my conversation with you so far, it feels like you are.
You are very enthusiastic about the Denver Broncos at two
and a half. Feels like that's the feedback we've gotten.
I've bet the Broncos. I think I got him a
three for a hot second the other day. I'm kind
of riding with you on this, like I'm riding the
trend and I'm riding.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
You, Yeah, because it doesn't feel good to be bet
on Bonnicks right now for being no. Like there's a
lot of underlying numbers and different things he's doing right
now that you see defenses have it just to to him.
But you see the chess match with Sean Bayton, he's
adjusting back and uh, there's some things he hasn't shown
either that he's pulled out this year with him and
that has obviously kept them in the games and they

(38:56):
probably should be two and oh. Like that's the most
interesting part to me, And I think it's all about expectations, right,
the Chargers lose their starting tackle, expectations, people immediately move
them out of the playoffs, really doubted them. They go
to Brazil, look dominant against the Chiefs team and then
the Raiders. I mean it wasn't even Herbert's best game, right,

(39:17):
he kind of faded that second half. I think they
scored three points, but their defense is so dominant against
the Raiders. It's all love for this Chargers team. Like
this is to me what we talked about with the
peak early in the season. Here, people think they know
these teams. They're, oh my god, this is it. Right,
Herbert's finding that guy. He's got the confidence, he's got

(39:38):
the coach, he's got the defense, he's got the offensive weapons,
he's putting it all together. It's September, Like, can we
just take it take.

Speaker 2 (39:46):
A beat here? Like that's what that's why people the
people are who the.

Speaker 3 (39:50):
Herbert truthers, and they act like someone like me is
a Herbert hater. Where it's like I've been nothing but
showing love to this.

Speaker 2 (39:57):
Guy and bet them.

Speaker 3 (39:58):
I love Ben Herbert in a certain spot, but it's
just too much a reaction to him where it's like
people want to crown him so quick because no one
doubts the arm talent. We've all seen the talent and
athletic is like, no one thinks Herbert isn't one of
the best most highly talented players in the football Our
knock on him as just the closing out of games
and how he isn't late in the games. And against

(40:20):
the Chiefs, you saw that killer like it was incredible
in that second half. He outplayed Mahomes and was the
better quarterback in that day. Against the Raiders, you saw
the fear inconsistent, the bad throwing when there's no run game.
There was just nothing there in the second half, Like
that's why they were so lucky with Geno just having
a meltdown. My view of this Denver team is their
defense isn't as bad as people think. They just ran

(40:42):
into a juggernaut with that Colts team who they held
to five field goals, like they only scored two touchdowns.
Now they did score on every drive, but it's like,
you know, Sean paying that defense that's a bender break
type of defense.

Speaker 2 (40:54):
That's a that's a win any day.

Speaker 3 (40:55):
If you're having a team that can move the ball,
but you're holding them to three every time, that's.

Speaker 2 (40:59):
A big deal. And this is just a bad spot.

Speaker 3 (41:02):
Like when I look at it, they are playing a
Chargers team that was in Brazil, flew back and then
played another primetime game was at ten o'clock at night
against the Raiders on a short week, So two weird games,
short week in this exact spot. Since twenty twenty three,
teams in this exact spot is playing two prime games.

(41:24):
Now they're playing another game within six days. That you know,
isn't that great of a spot. So they're playing the
Chargers playing Denver. Here the Chargers are one and seven
against the spread in the SAX spot or just teams
in general since twenty twenty three each so it shows teams.

Speaker 2 (41:39):
Do get burned out right. That's why I love those type.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Of trends where it shows you that early in the year,
here these teams that play multiple primetime games and now
they're on a short week that has a lot to
ask And we talked about Denver. This is like the
dream spot. They're zeroing too against the spread. Everyone's left
them for dead, like people that were hyping them up.
They're just burned. They're mad.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
No one's gonna betting them. That's why I like, I
was hoping we'd get three and a half three on
their show because I'm like, oh my god, I love
it. It was going up to three. I think as soon
as we got done our show, I talked a little
bit about that.

Speaker 3 (42:08):
It's like, yeah, yeah, this the vibes are just so
after the Chargers, where we know what we're doing here, right,
this is another spot we might be stepping in it.
But it's like all the signals are flashing here in
this week three, all the trends pointing to this Broncos team,
and then just going on field, their D line. I mean,
the Raiders have a really good D line too, Like
they obviously dominated the run. I think you're gonna see

(42:29):
the same thing here, like this is gonna be a
really great front for this Denver team that they got
embarrassed likely last week against this Colts. I don't think
you see that again this week. So you've seen it
time and time again that this is tends to be
a good spot for these divisional teams. Like we talked
about that trend earlier, and you see just the a
reaction for the public where this probably should be closer

(42:52):
to one to a pick, but it's allay up to
two and a half three and a lot of books
and that's that's crossing two key numbers.

Speaker 2 (42:58):
So very confident this number.

Speaker 3 (43:00):
In just a long another time, we talked about these spots,
these early in the year week three trends. They all
point to this Denver team, but just on the field
stuff that you want to see in love, Chad, I
think that really sparks here with this Denver team, this
matchup that it's gonna be close, it's gonna be ugly.
But I do think this is peak overrating of this
Chargers team. And two weeks in this is bilo as

(43:22):
you can get on this Denver team. Just everyone's off
of them. And just look on the splits up turn.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
You've seen it. It's just all Chargers money. Yeah, and
tickets as well.

Speaker 1 (43:30):
Yeah, I'm with you. I feel pretty good about this one.
This this feels like it's as much of a lock
as we can have for making it into the contest.

Speaker 3 (43:42):
And I don't even say sorry, this is the third
straight divisional game, which I know people are like, why
does that matter. I think it's a big deal because
those divisional games are so intense because these teams know
how much these matter in December, like these games September. Sure,
you can say they don't matter, it's out of division.
In division, it is such a big deal. And the

(44:04):
data backs up as well that teams when they play.
In the last twenty years, teams have played three straight
divisional games. They're one in six against the spread of
the exact spot, two and five straight up and they're
filling it cover by ten points in this exact spot.

Speaker 1 (44:19):
You come on, you just sounded so filly when you
were Your accent was like and it made it reminded me.
There's a new show on I think HBO called Task
is by the same yeah people, dude, it's the same
people who did Mayor of Eastown. So my wife and
I watched it last night and the accents are not

(44:39):
to be trifled with. They're so so good. But we
also before we watched the show, we had to watch
the SNL Murdered Order sketch where they're making fun of
Mayor of Eastown. It's so brilliant it's just so it
just puts you in such a good mirrood. But that
accent almost becomes impossible to not laugh at because it's

(45:01):
so specific, and you just sounded like you were in
murdered dirder Land. Listen, Dallas at Chicago Chicago on Tuesday
was a one and a half point favorite. Now at
hard Rock they are one point dogs, other places one

(45:22):
and a half. You chastised me for not choosing the
Bears on Tuesday, and I'm glad I waited. Brother, this
is how much better is hate Caleb Williams. Maybe they
maybe they hate the Bears defense. You know, the Bears
are dogs. The world is against my hometown of Chicago.

(45:50):
It's time to make the Chicago Bears our brass bars
better of the week. Look, I'm trying to be reasonable
about this. I've I've sent all the charts about how
Caleb is, you know, identical to Josh Williams and his
stats through these number of games, to my buddies, to

(46:14):
my son. I've ignored the charts this to yourself. Listen,
I've ignored the charts that say he's also identical to
miss Trubisky through this number of games in his career.
I just don't really get why the number has moved
so much for the Cowboys, who basically allowed Russell Wilson
to have the greatest game of his career. That that's

(46:36):
what I'm betting on. It's more than Caleb bounced back
or anything else. It's the number move too far. Give
me the team that's the dog on the move across
the across zero.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
Yeah, and it's it's gonna be the reason pros love Dak.
Here is going to be what's something you hate?

Speaker 3 (46:52):
Jack because of the trends and all the old data
and like you basically die into the numbers. This this
is not the best spot for this Bears team.

Speaker 2 (47:02):
And that's why I think this is our big balls
better the week. Yep, because it's our brass balls, because
it's it's.

Speaker 1 (47:09):
Just because when you get kicked in the dick, you
gotta have brass balls otherwise it's gonna hurt.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
And it's just a game. I knew.

Speaker 3 (47:17):
I knew we're gonna love it, coming in like them
as a favorite obviously a dog. Now I can't avoid it. Now,
it's like I have to love this one. And yep,
it's really the fear here what we're betting into. Is
what Chad talked on Caleb Williams versus Deck. At the
end of the day, that's what this game is. That's
why people that are not gonna QB's be in the
mile wins stat and ah.

Speaker 2 (47:37):
There's all these other pieces.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
No, this is the exact reason when's your QB's stat
because both these teams are not good. Like defensively, there's
there's weaknesses both sides. Offensively, we've seen that when these
quarterbacks can get it together in their systems, they have
weapons like there is there is high upside offensively. It's
the defenses that give us pause. But I think Bears defense,

(48:00):
I know it's crazy.

Speaker 2 (48:01):
I think they are better than this Dallas defense, and
especially with the injuries Dallas sat in.

Speaker 3 (48:07):
The Dak stuff is what I think. Anyone out there,
I'll give you the Dak side of this. Why if
you do want to avoid this game, totally understand this
is what Dak does.

Speaker 2 (48:16):
Dak does great against bad teams.

Speaker 3 (48:18):
Right in his career, he's thirty thirty nine and twelve
straight up seventy seven percent first teams under five hundred.
So this is tankfully a Dak spot. He's playing against
a bad team under five hundred, and you know when
those teams have just lost by more than nine points. Chad,
He's twenty four and six straight up in fourteen and

(48:40):
three since twenty twenty in this exact spot. So he
beats up on bad defenses. Which that's what that's stat
tells me. Like teams that are bad defenses, he beats
them up. Caleb stats are terrifying too, and one PM
starts in his career, Chad, I'm sure you've seen this.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
I've seen tons of Barris fans posting it.

Speaker 3 (48:56):
In his career, he is zero for seven, losing by
eleven points per game in this exact spot. So we
are going against all of that because our view of
business numbers moved too much. They were, I believe minus
three on the look ahead, and.

Speaker 2 (49:14):
Now it's shifted.

Speaker 3 (49:15):
Like Chad said, there's books out there plus one and
a half. So it shifted four and a half points.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
It's crazy, crazy, So we're we're betting on that.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
We're betting on the overreaction. The lines moved too much.
Hard Rock is plus one. Go get the one and
a half, get the hook, because I could easily see
Bears up to with thirty seconds left and outdoors. Somehow
with the win, it is back the kicker for Dallas
kicks off the seventy yarder and it's just, you know,

(49:44):
Aubrey is the optimate weapon, like when I think of
special teams, guys, So we need that one and a
half because when it moved to that, I go, oh
my god, the books are telling us something six about
the half in here, because honestly, as a favorite, calybse amazing.
The trends will love him as a favorite in six spot.
The issue is the numbers flipped, and I think it's
gonna stay flipped. Like the pros have come in now

(50:05):
on Dallas as a dog, I don't think it gets
back to that. So that's why we're making it our
basketball as we're literally going against the proser and the public.

Speaker 2 (50:12):
We're we're just back in the books here.

Speaker 3 (50:15):
This is really very few pros are on the side,
and this is a game where I love it for
all the wrong reasons.

Speaker 2 (50:22):
I maybe be a little too overrated on Caleb.

Speaker 3 (50:25):
I just think the public is just so overracked into
this Bears team and they just walked into a bussau
last week where Dallas they felt like they used up
nine of their lives last week, like they're just coming
off and insane when you expect to let down. But
I hated all these trends that support DAK first bad
teams chat and I.

Speaker 2 (50:43):
Know, I mean, you don't want to say it, but
I think we both know the Bears they're a bad team.

Speaker 1 (50:51):
Simon, there is so much hate for Caleb Williams right now.
It almost feels irrational, right the talk about benching him.
To talk about almost inaccuracies, the level of denigration happening
for Caleb Williams nationally A. I know, it's clearly something

(51:16):
that everyone's engaging with, right Otherwise the big shows wouldn't
be doing it. It wouldn't be the topic of conversation
across every media outlet unless producers saw some kind of spike.
When we're talking about bashing Kleb Williams, I don't love
this spot for Kayleb Williams. I'm actually just betting the

(51:36):
number like it moved too much. I'm getting a point
and a half for a team that, like you just said,
had been a field goal favorite in the look aheadlines,
which weren't that long ago. So like great give me
a four and a half point swaying, give me the
underdog one and a half Kent City Chiefs at New
York Giants. You said at the beginning of the show, wise, guys,

(52:01):
don't like this, don't like this play. I bet the
Chiefs minus five and a half after say the Packers
and maybe the Colts. It could be the chalkiest play
of the week, like obviously not sharp. Whatever sort of
love the pros have for the Giants has been outweighed

(52:21):
here by the market love for the Chiefs, because the
number has moved in their direction. At six at hard
Rock right now, I gotta stick with it. I've already
put my money down, not buying out.

Speaker 3 (52:37):
Yeah for Sharper square the Stars. Square bet of the week,
no doubt about it, this chief side.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
And do you think it's more square than the Colts.

Speaker 3 (52:45):
No, because again we gave it out a minus three.
We're not making you take the minus three and a
half at the Chiefs a minus five and a half,
which is still out there, Like I just said it,
a couple of very public books you must grab and
you must join us in this brutal, brutal loss we're
about to suffer. But I just see same thing with
you know, Dallas last week, like we had no chance

(53:06):
of that six, but we did. And it feels the
same here as Chiefs, where I just there's gonna be
one or two players that dictates this spread. At the
end of the day. We always know that that's football,
but this also will easily be Chiefs role blowout. And
our fear here is that it's like Pros I've talked
to is that they just don't have the guns right.

(53:28):
They don't have the guys on the outside the Chiefs
team that really blow out and roll these teams. And
that's the paws, the hesitation with the number and the
six and a half, that's the sharp side. You want
to pick a side, you have no dog in this fight.
Yet I am with Chad. I'm a supportive friend. I
will back them because I don't forget it. I bet
the five and a half on the Chiefs. But the

(53:50):
sharp side of the professional side, they're going to be
on the Giants of six and a half, just because
that's a big number.

Speaker 2 (53:56):
It's the Sunday night.

Speaker 3 (53:57):
Game, all the parlays, all the teasers, everything is going
to be tied to this Chiefs team. There is no
world this Chiefs team goes over three. Maybe me and
Chat will have them our survivor. The apisolute killer of killers,
this Chiefs team. But yes, it's it's it's a unique spot.

Speaker 2 (54:14):
And if we weren't in the Year of Chalk these
last couple of years where it's just the favorites just
always win.

Speaker 3 (54:19):
They might not cover, but they always win. Okay, the
Chiefs will win this one.

Speaker 2 (54:23):
But you know, even five years ago, this was the
trap of all traps, this Chiefs team, just because five.

Speaker 1 (54:29):
Years ago, we're not even having five years ago.

Speaker 2 (54:32):
Yeah, it's Giants' auto play.

Speaker 1 (54:33):
Five years ago, it's okay, Giants.

Speaker 2 (54:35):
Next, right, that's it.

Speaker 3 (54:37):
So it's trying to adjust with the times here and
on this number, it's it's pretty glaring how how much
money is coming to the Chiefs team, because the same
thoughts we had Sunday night, it's just in what world.

Speaker 2 (54:48):
Are the Chiefs going over three?

Speaker 3 (54:50):
Especially against this Kansas City team that you saw in
the Week one. If they play against a good defense,
they're going to struggle offensive. Russell Wilson will not be
throwing those fifty to fifty balls.

Speaker 2 (54:59):
But yeah, neighbors, he's the ultimate cheek good. So I
get it.

Speaker 3 (55:03):
But this the five and a half, it is still
out there. I would still grab on this Chiefs team.
I still believe in that number in this side for
this Chief side.

Speaker 1 (55:11):
Yeah, it's uh. You know. Andrew Thomas, by the way,
we thought he was sort of the key to why
one of the reasons why we like the Cowboys so much.
Last year, he's been active but limited in practice this week,
didn't play last week. It's a it's a big deal, right,
So I don't love it. I don't love it. I

(55:34):
don't love it as much as I did the other
day when I said I loved it. I'm getting a
little skittish. I like, I'm already annoyed that I'm gonna
have to stay up late on Sunday night to watch it.
I'm so tired at the end of Sundays, Like, I don't.

Speaker 2 (55:48):
Know this one. You have to watch the end because
there's no way this chief seemed to be rolling by
like twenty five in this.

Speaker 1 (55:54):
Right right exactly like it's gonna but it's gonna matter
and I can already see it, you know. So this
is what the Chiefs do. They're up four with four
minutes left and they go into their four minute drill
and you know, they take it down to forty five seconds,
punt the ball the Giants have, you know, have to

(56:18):
score the touchdown. Nothing either nothing happens or there's a turnover,
and the Chiefs just follow because they're well coached, and
you know, ends up being four that if that happens,
if that happens on Tuesday show, someone should send me
my flowers because I just nailed how we're going to
lose this game quickly. I want to talk about Detroit

(56:41):
to Baltimore only because we liked it at five and
a half on Tuesday, it's at four and a half
at hard Rock. It's trending down significantly, a lot of public,
a lot of sharp money coming in on the Lions.
I feel good about the bet that we made at
five and a half and that I don't really have
much more to say about that. If you have thoughts,
if you feel like it needs to be in the contest,

(57:04):
the number moving has has sort of changed it for
me in terms of this conversation.

Speaker 3 (57:08):
I just have other games I love more this week
that I've really jumped out and have better line value
and my confidence honestly, in the lines bet was just
really about the line at some point, you know, especially
if the steps to four, I would probably be be
on this Ravens team, where you know, I still have
questions about that lines. I know, as great as they

(57:29):
looked against the Bears, I do have questions. My my,
My big thing though, is the reason I'm not signing
the table with this Ravens team is can the Ravens
exploit that offensive line of Detroit lines? I don't know
if they have the guys up front that can really
do that. So I like that you brought this game
up because the line has moved so much. But yeah,
for me, I just there's no scenario I see us
really break this one down Sunday putting in our contest.

(57:51):
I just I compared to other games, this game is
not even on the board really for me?

Speaker 2 (57:55):
How much I bet compared to other games.

Speaker 1 (57:57):
Well, that's a good transition. What's your biggest bet?

Speaker 2 (58:03):
Uh? Well, this week's a little weird.

Speaker 3 (58:05):
Like I always talk, some weeks, I'll have like two
or three games I really lock in on. I'm honestly chatt,
I'm at like six or seven games.

Speaker 2 (58:12):
I've like that pretty heavy into and it's like we
talked about it's it's scary because it's just all these
ugly dogs and like even this tonight, I somehow ended
up on this Miami side. I don't know what happened.

Speaker 3 (58:23):
It's like how do I I found like five different
tickets to me bet in Miami at twelve and a
half and twelve, and it's like what am I doing?

Speaker 2 (58:31):
Why am I betting? Why am I doing this?

Speaker 3 (58:32):
And like it's just there's so many dogs this week
that it's they're undervalued and the numbers just move too much.
So yeah, for this week right now, my biggest bets,
I'll start with the grossest one.

Speaker 2 (58:44):
No one's gonna bet it, but Panthers.

Speaker 3 (58:47):
I gotta do it at five and a half six
if you can find it.

Speaker 2 (58:50):
It's just too much.

Speaker 3 (58:52):
And for me, I've just been betting too much on
it where I can't stop betting the Panthers.

Speaker 2 (58:56):
I just I don't know.

Speaker 3 (58:59):
I just can't get over this. This Falcons team just
not I just think they're overrated. I think Penic's overrated.
So I'm definite gona eat these words. This Panthers team
is not good. They're banged up well another game. I'm
not gonna make us force into our contest because there's
just other games that I bet way bigger on that.
I like more Texans is number one, Broncos number two.

(59:20):
We talked about the Browns. You can still find there's
one book out there and a half.

Speaker 2 (59:24):
Ben att pretty heavy.

Speaker 3 (59:27):
When we get off this call, literally going right down
to AC might even go to the hard rock and
get that Egos minus three, So that might not be
another really big bet for me.

Speaker 2 (59:37):
And I bought out of.

Speaker 3 (59:39):
Two positions pretty heavily. H I was on forty nine ers.
I bought out of that. I'm on the Cardinals. The
Cardinals are up to like plus three. A couple of books,
you know, hard rock here is in Jersey's got plus
two and a half plus two, plus two, and uh,
it keeps bouncing around. I think it's gonna go up
to plus three if Party does get cleared.

Speaker 2 (59:59):
I just I like that number.

Speaker 3 (01:00:00):
I know the injuries they have to their secondary and
have bank upbur but I just doesn't feel like Party
is rushing back a little bit here and it's like, yeah,
it's he's gonna be hotble, not his full self and
he needs his mobility. So that line jumped out to
me just before we go, and another one we didn't
really talk about that I bet pretty heavy into is
the Saints seven and a half. I really like it.

(01:00:21):
I've tempered back my betting on it just because I
think we might have to have silks in our survivor pool.
Like we'll talk about it here after this. But I
know it sounds stupid tempered back bets, but I hate
being on both sides and you know, rooting against myself
while trying to cover the spread.

Speaker 2 (01:00:38):
So I do like the Saints.

Speaker 3 (01:00:39):
Still, people are gonna ask why we didn't really have
that one forced in when it comes to the big dogs.
I feel more comfortable taking the Browns at their number,
so it's like chop around.

Speaker 2 (01:00:49):
I just my my bet on the Saints really is
about the number.

Speaker 1 (01:00:53):
BI.

Speaker 2 (01:00:54):
I have no confidence in Spencer Rouler.

Speaker 3 (01:00:56):
I don't know if you've gone back and watched him
for all the goodie flashed and there are won a game.
He just it was totally gone last week. There's just
something he's just so bad. I don't think he's ever
won a game, right, is.

Speaker 2 (01:01:08):
Right?

Speaker 3 (01:01:09):
So yeah, well we can get to survivor there's just
there's so many options this week Survivor, and it's it's
making my head spin.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
I don't know about you.

Speaker 1 (01:01:17):
Uh it is. We're going to get the survivor in
a second. We've got to do our round robin underdog
money line run round robin underdog parlay, uh Texans, Denver, Chicago.

(01:01:40):
We got to put someone a little bit longer in there.
But I'm not loving the Browns.

Speaker 2 (01:01:48):
Can Can I get you on the Panthers?

Speaker 1 (01:01:53):
Yeah? I can do the Panther's no problem.

Speaker 2 (01:01:55):
Because there let me check what their live number is
plus two hundred. That's that's that's good value.

Speaker 1 (01:02:03):
Then we need one more.

Speaker 2 (01:02:06):
Honestly want coming into the show.

Speaker 3 (01:02:08):
I wanted to do the Rams after seeing that stat
by about Hurts in the sex spot.

Speaker 2 (01:02:13):
I couldn't get there. Should we just do it?

Speaker 3 (01:02:16):
Should we keep riding the Bengals train your your love?
Like that's what was a weird game?

Speaker 1 (01:02:22):
We didn't talk about the Bengals. No, I actually feel
great about the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (01:02:29):
I'm on the Vikings, but I have no read on
this game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:31):
I just feel like the Vikings. You're probably right, you know,
they've got so many injuries. I know forget about Carson Wentz.
And you know, is Kevin O'Connell a quarterback whisper? Who knows?

Speaker 2 (01:02:45):
But Jake Browning might be awful though like he I know,
he had good throws, and.

Speaker 1 (01:02:49):
Jake Browning might be awful. Jake Browning also has the
confidence of this team. And at the end of the day,
I don't know, He's thrown in Jamar Chase, and Jamar
Chase looks even the worst quarterback look decent, that's true.
And he can overcome turnovers because he's got Jamar Chase.
So we're not going to do anything with it. But yeah,
let's put the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (01:03:09):
Yeah, all right, let's throw them in.

Speaker 1 (01:03:11):
What about our money line round robin.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
Moneymaker the favorite? Yes, so let's let's get Chalky. Well,
let's go Colts. All right, they might not cover, they're
winning that game. We believe in Danny Jones, Indiana Jones
and that Colts team Chiefs, Chiefs Eagles. So that's three
right there? What are the bucks?

Speaker 1 (01:03:35):
Box are seven? I don't mind the bucks there.

Speaker 2 (01:03:40):
Minus three to sixty, that's yeah, it's not terrible.

Speaker 1 (01:03:45):
What about we got Colts Chiefs Eagles.

Speaker 2 (01:03:49):
One more bucks?

Speaker 3 (01:03:53):
I mean We're just trying to be safe and win
people money. I just see HOWKX don't lose that game.
Sam Donald's not losing to the Saints in that spot.

Speaker 1 (01:04:03):
I was thinking Seahawks or Packers, So let's go with
Seahawks survivor. I agree with you about Seattle. I want
to do the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:04:18):
Like the thing is, though it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:20):
Feels like, oh my god, that could be a prime
time fiasco.

Speaker 3 (01:04:25):
Yes, and it's the difference is, even if the Chiefs
don't have good matchups later in the year, which they don't, honestly,
at least we're getting, we expect a healthy Chiefs offense
at that point that will be in some type of rhythm.

Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
Same with their defense. Where the Seahawks, I'm looking at
either schedule put up right now.

Speaker 3 (01:04:44):
I don't know they're easy game we take them again,
like they're at Tennessee on November twenty third, do.

Speaker 2 (01:04:53):
We expect that to be a good spot for the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (01:04:55):
Yeah, it's the Seahawks defense against a rookie quarterback.

Speaker 2 (01:04:59):
That's a pretty good match.

Speaker 3 (01:05:00):
That's another game I could really find for them that
Like the rest of their schedule, they're at Carolina and
the twenty eighth of December, like they have a couple
of really late ones. But to me, this is the
best opportune time for the Seahawks team.

Speaker 2 (01:05:11):
Everyone.

Speaker 3 (01:05:12):
They're all, they're healthy, their defense is, you know, playing
really well, especially the start of the season these last
two weeks, and we've seen the Saints team the weaknesses.

Speaker 2 (01:05:21):
But yeah, those those two jumped down. I know.

Speaker 3 (01:05:24):
We got a lot of questions about the bills, right,
A lot of people are taking the bills tonight. I
don't hate it, I get it, right. I think Josh Allen,
what is he some crazy stat? Is he eight and
oh or seven and one against uh Tua.

Speaker 2 (01:05:36):
In his career? Yeah, he's never lost to him at home,
So that's fair.

Speaker 3 (01:05:42):
Like, that's a fair time to use the bills. I
just I feel like we could save the bills for
later in the season. And like I'm just I don't
know one else again, I would use the Seahawks again.
So it's up to you, brother, if you if you
want to go Seahawks, that's that's what I prefer. If you,
if you want to go the other way and go Chiefs,
I get it, because again I don't if you have
the schedule up for the Chiefs. I'm trying to find

(01:06:05):
when we play them again late in the year. They're
at Dallas and you know what's that November twenty seventh,
they're at Tennessee the twenty first look.

Speaker 1 (01:06:13):
Part of part of my calculus here is I don't
I don't expect this thing to go into December. Like
you know, most of these things don't last that long.

Speaker 2 (01:06:25):
That's what you remember one as someone who's won them.

Speaker 3 (01:06:27):
You've got to do this. We were taking a long
term baby. We're gonna win this thing. Chad don't have
doubt yet.

Speaker 1 (01:06:33):
No, I don't know. I don't have doubt. I'm just saying,
like I'm not ahead. I'm not that worried about saving
for I'm not worried about saving for weeks sixteen or seventeen.
We're getting in December, like I want to save for
week thirteen, week fourteen, which.

Speaker 3 (01:06:49):
Is around a lot of games that you all like,
you have to you have to try to. That's why
I have to read out which one to take here.
Because we like all I mean I think we all
like three of these are. We like the Bills, we
like Total Chefs like, we like the Seahawks. So yeah,
I'll leave it up to you whatever one you want
to go, because you let me.

Speaker 1 (01:07:04):
Let's go with Seattle. Let's do Seattle Seahawks, all right?
Sharp versus square? This is not a good run for
me right now? Who would you like to take?

Speaker 3 (01:07:18):
Oh God, I can't double down. I honestly would probably
go Denver again. I just feel like that's such a
sharp side. I'm gonna go the other sharp side in
my opinion, Texans, all right? Plus one and a half
or plus one wherever hard rock is?

Speaker 1 (01:07:35):
Okay? Man, I don't know if I should be on
the Browns or do I want the Eagles at the
minus three.

Speaker 2 (01:07:48):
That's a nice number at hard rock as as something
that's terrified of your picks. I do want you to
stay away from my Eagles and the trouper square segment.

Speaker 1 (01:07:56):
I'm not gonna lie I am do. Yeah, I'm taking
the Eagle. I've wanted to be on the Eagles all week.
If this is the best I'm gonna get for minus three,
I'm taking the Eagles minus three. Let me quickly round
up what we're what we're pinpointing for Sunday. Make sure
we're on the same page for that conversation. I think

(01:08:18):
we're gonna have to have a conversation about the Browns
just based on the number of games that we have
that we're both sort of aligning on. The Browns, the Texans,
the Eagles, Denver. Those feel like four that we we're

(01:08:39):
locking in on, and then it's the Colts, it's the Bears,
and that's kind of it. It feels like we've narrowed
it down to six. So we're gonna have to choose
a final one. Am I missing anyone?

Speaker 2 (01:08:55):
Yeah? Patriots, We'll see how we feel.

Speaker 1 (01:08:57):
Yeah, that's right, that's right.

Speaker 3 (01:08:58):
Again, I'm the books all weekend. I'll have a stronger
opinion about it. But like right now, I'm I'm really
dugging on those spots. I'm hoping I can talk to
people that talk me off some of these lines because
I'm like, I feel like this is a really good week.
I love some of these games, and I guess the
general public that's terrifying. As someone like me, It's like,
this is really exciting. These are you look for these weeks,

(01:09:21):
these opportunities, and yeah, I just it's the best, right
that we all overreact so much the first two weeks
and all the numbers coming out. And that's why I
love beting football. It's it's the more you know, the
less you know.

Speaker 2 (01:09:33):
That's the best part about we do here.

Speaker 1 (01:09:37):
All right, we'll be back. This has been sharp or Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
on Shopper Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you ease
drop on a very intimate conversation between me and Simon
and which we will panic, make utterly human decisions and
regret the rest of the day. Then we will be
back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven thirty ish pm.

(01:10:00):
Stern really win the last week afternoon game ends as
recap all that misery. Watch or listen on YouTube at
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Until next time, Love you