Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 4 Bets: Chargers-Giants, Ravens-Chiefs, Bears-Raiders, Eagles-Bucs & More

Another beautiful week of NFL action is upon us! And that means veteran NFL bettor Chad Millman is joined by his closest friend and pro sports gambler Simon Hunter to narrow down their best bets for NFL Week 4. They look at their favorite matchups on the board on a quest for five top picks against the spread for their weekly NFL contest. 

PLUS, we hear the long-awaited return of Sharp Calls, where Simon recaps the angry calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers. Games covered today include Thursday Night Football, Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints vs Buffalo Bills, LA Chargers vs New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, and more. We also hear Round Robins, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites, survivor pool picks and so much more. #Volume

-- All lines provided by @HardRockBet

0:00:00 - Start

0:06:00 - Sharp Calls

0:08:00 - Seahawks-Cardinals

0:11:00 - Chargers-Giants

0:17:30 - Eagles-Bucs

0:21:00 - Commanders-Falcons

0:24:30 - Browns-Lions

0:33:00 - Saints-Bills

0:36:00 - Colts-Rams

0:40:00 - Jags-49ers

0:46:00 - Ravens-Chiefs

0:51:00 - Bears-Raiders

0:54:00 - Packers-Cowboys

0:56:00 - Jets-Dolphins

1:01:00 - Biggest Bets 

1:02:00 - Round Robins + Survivor 

All lines provided by @hardrockbet

Subscribe to Sharp or Square for gambling advice, best bets, and predictions from sports betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Follow on all platforms:

 https://www.instagram.com/sharporsquare/

https://x.com/SharporSquare_

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Hard Rock Bats. We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am
joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my
compadre professional better sign in Hunter, Hello, Simon, Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
I know a lot of our fans as say their
favorite time of year is that, you know, end of May,
early June, right, there's all the sports, horse racing, golf, everything,
all the playoffs are there. For me, this is it.
I'm a baseball guy. This has been an incredible week
of baseball.

Speaker 3 (00:39):
The last three days honestly will have been incredible.

Speaker 2 (00:42):
And and I'm watching hockey preseason, little NBA preseason football
is on obviously as well, and I'm just like, man,
I think this is my this is my time of
year for sports.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
I just love this whole spot.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
And uh yeah, just really again diving in the lines
this week. I'm just appreciative of life and that what
we get to do for a life. And yeah, hopefully
these these games are some winners for us.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
Dude, I'm not gonna lie to it. It is. I
feel so lucky not to get sappy that we get
to do this show and this is part of our
daily process. And when I woke up this morning, I'm like,
all right, I get to talk about betting on football.
And the reason I'm even thinking about it is because
you know, this is our Thursday we four episode. We're

(01:26):
going to narrow down our options on our quest to
find five picks we agree on for the week. Reminder
subscribe Sharper Square on YouTube, able posts, Spotify. But the
reason I say this is because I'm in the city
right now. I'm at my mother in law's apartment, recording
live from my mother in law's apartment. I will tell
you I was at a party last night in the
city in one of those media you know, shin digs.

(01:49):
Lots of lots of really impressive, powerful folks, and a
bunch of people who happened to listen to and watch
the show. We're asking me about some of the picks
from Tuesday show. And then when I ran down, I
was talking to one guy I'm running down like, yeah,
I'm on Detroit, Yeah, I'm on the Chargers, Yeah I'm
on the Niners.

Speaker 3 (02:09):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
I put a little taste, not a full unit, but
a little taste on the bills. I started to get really,
really nervous, and it honestly feels like, now that we're
forty hours beyond that show, we are on the opposite
side of all the professional conventional wisdom. I won't say
professional betters, but certainly conventional wisdom. So simon, let's get

(02:30):
into this thing. And I'll say this right now with
joy in my heart. Back by popular demand from all
the old heads who have been tweeting at us and
saying in the YouTube comments, it's time for sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
I have to answer this phot all right, Rain, Rain
telephone range.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Somebody said, maybe want you do lead. Yeah, let's tie
right into the games they love with us sharp call.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
Right off the top, Tampa. I think I knew that
was an professional side. Honestly, I'm shocked I haven't gotten
the three. I really did think that the three and
a half was gonna be a gift and it was
gonna disappear and just go back to three with the
injuries the Eagles have and the Tampa getting guys back.

Speaker 3 (03:22):
But luckily we're on the professional side there.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
The pros actually love Carolina, which I know is game
we haven't talked much about.

Speaker 3 (03:30):
I'm trying to avoid it.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
I feel.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
I got away with it last week in Carolina. I
wanted to be on the Patriots number is egregious. I'm
just avoiding it. I know a lot of pros though,
like that Panthers side Detroit game we're on.

Speaker 3 (03:46):
Pros love it, like every guy I talked who loved
it eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
They've been taking it at nine, taken at nine and
a half, so I think our view of it getting
under ten. That was the key Chiefs and no game
We're gonna dive into. The pros love Cowboys, the pros
love same side we're on. And you know, last, last,
but not least, that Rams game shocking. I thought it
was going to be all pros on the cold side.

(04:09):
A lot of pros are joining us on that Rams side,
so interesting.

Speaker 3 (04:13):
A lot of love for our picks, what they hate
for us.

Speaker 2 (04:16):
Talked a lot of pros that like the Commanders, a
lot of guys that love the Saints, a lot of
guys that love the Seahawks, and a lot of guys
that really really love that matchup for that Jets team.
I just can't get there. So yeah, interesting back and forth.
A lot of professionals week about different sides.

Speaker 3 (04:32):
But I knew they would be on the for sure
for the Chiefs and the Bucks.

Speaker 2 (04:38):
The other games honestly surprised me just because they are
such Chalky favorites. So yeah, excited to dive into this
week and all these lines and kind of get into
these ones.

Speaker 1 (04:46):
All right, Well, there's one game they didn't mention, which
I thought for sure you would say that they're on
the opposite side of us, and we're going to talk
about that in a minute, But first, let's talk about
Thursday night just quickly, because you mentioned they're on Seattle,
and we've liked Arizona since Sunday night. We were waiting
for Arizona to get to plus numbers, and it did
on Tuesday. They were at minus one and a half.

(05:06):
Now they're at plus one and a half. I want
to pull the trigger on Arizona. I can't figure out
why I'm not, And it's like, is it because I
don't trust Kyler Murray? Help me get over the hump here.
My model is completely frat flashing green for the Cardinals.

Speaker 3 (05:27):
Just gus.

Speaker 2 (05:28):
Historically, the Seahawks have won here it doesn't matter who
their quarterback has been, the coach has been, what their
defense has been. For some reason, the Seahawks have owned
the Cardinals in this matchup, and I think your hesitation
for both of us is just we think the Seahawks
are a better team right now and health does matter. Sure,
weeks doesn't matter, but I'm like you, I can't avoid it.

(05:50):
It's Kyler Murray as a dog. I've said it years ago.
I don't care no matter what. I take him as
a dog, even when he has a bad matchup and
his offensive lines banged up and everything.

Speaker 3 (06:00):
It's just all negative.

Speaker 2 (06:01):
And I hate it because it's making me like Arizon anymore.
But I'm not going to put in our contest. I
know that for sure. But I'm still on the same side.
I was looking for ways to get there on Seahawks
and I just can't can't get there right now with
this team that last year, I mean last week, I
should say we were on for Survivor and it was
the dream scenario. But Chad knows like anytime a team

(06:24):
wins by thirty and now they're facing a team on
a short week on the road, it's just historically isn't
a good spot. So the trends don't love the Seahawks either.
The only trends that like the Seahawks is simply their
matchup with the Cardinals. So yeah, we can keep it moving.
Not a game on a fort and I am on
the Cardinals. But there's no way I could talk myself
and I putting this in the contest.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
I don't want to walk away from for one sec
because I just want to get to why would I
like the Seahawks or the Cardinals better? On the field, Like,
the Seahawks are so much more dominant right now, They're
amazing defensively. I'm still not quite sold on Sam Donald.
He hasn't necessarily had to win them a game the

(07:02):
way their defense and running game has been winning them
a game, you know, against the Steelers, and then last
week was just sort of a trouncing. Is that why?
Like what am I liking on the field here? I
have no read of it.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
I think the Cardinals are well coach and they play hard,
like their defense with all their injuries, they've played really hard,
played really well.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
Last week.

Speaker 2 (07:24):
To me, I think our hesitation, just as Kyler. That's
to me, is this issue we're just we don't trust him.
That's why I just bet him as a dog where
it's like I don't try to overthink it.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
He covers as a dog. As a favorite, he is
just atrocious.

Speaker 2 (07:36):
So he's a dog. This is usually the games he
the cup of games he covers, so all right.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
One of the games that I'm surprised the wise guys
didn't bring up in the conversation here is the La
Chargers are now six and a half point favorites against
the Giants. This took a lot of our attention on Tuesday,
too much, honestly, because while I was loving their Chargers
at six, it moved to six and a half before
I could grab it while we were talking about it

(08:02):
on the show, and it remained the pick that I love.
Chad loves the Chargers. I got it at six and
a half. It's steady at six and a half. As
we were talking, it was announced that Jackson Dart was
going to take over for Russell Wilson. Look, there is
a lot of love right now for the Giants defensive
line and what they were able to do against Patrick

(08:24):
Mahomes and make him uncomfortable, and the real failings for
the Giants were their inability on offense to execute take
advantage of situations score points. My feeling on this is
the whole Jackson Dart thing is a sort of is
a classic media parroting the organization's talking points. Like you

(08:48):
listen to collins Worth talk about Chris collins Worth talk
about Jackson Dart on Sunday Night, and you'd think he
had the swagger and talent of Joe Namath right the
way that they just sort of way he walks in
and gets the guys together and he works so hard
and you know his athletic ability. Is this not a
guy who was like who snuck into the bottom of

(09:12):
the first round to a team that passed on him
at the top of the draft. Like, is the expectations
that the Chargers do not know how to defend against
a quarterback who can run like I don't know, Patrick Mahomes.
Is the expectations the Giants pat Ross will just dominate
the Chargers injured offensive line. What are the wise guys

(09:32):
if they are betting on the Giants and you didn't
mention them. Seeing that should make me uncomfortable because I
still love this pick.

Speaker 3 (09:41):
Yeah, I would say to Collinsworth.

Speaker 2 (09:43):
He's a man in his seventies or I don't know
if he's in his eighties, but I think he's in
the seventies.

Speaker 1 (09:47):
And he's not in his eighties. Guy, come on, he's.

Speaker 3 (09:49):
Probably an an edible.

Speaker 1 (09:50):
So no, he's not.

Speaker 3 (09:53):
I think he is man.

Speaker 2 (09:54):
And some of the stuff he says, you're just like,
there's no way this guy is sober.

Speaker 3 (09:57):
That's why I think a lot of people in sports
come on.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
But yeah, I just Dart is the unknown, so maybe
that's why people love him. But for me in this game, like,
I'm gonna support you, even though back to back weeks
you've taken the same team against the Giants, and I
get your logic and your reasoning.

Speaker 3 (10:15):
It really was.

Speaker 2 (10:16):
Faiting this bad team against superior talent, and that's what
the Chargers are. They're superior talent against a bad team
that's you know, not properly coach. The fear here. The
reason pros aren't talking about this one is just because
we don't know what we're gonna get. Dart could come
out and with his legs or whatever, have a good game,
even though he's not that good, right because there's no tape,

(10:39):
it's just gonna be a very simplified offense for him
to run. But I'm I'm still on your side, even
though the pros are talking, I'm still on your charger side.
There's still sixes out there. You can grab the sixes.
I mean hard rocks at six here in Jersey. I
know that you've got six and a half. They've been
fluctuating all day. So there's clear professional money on the
Giants side, while the public is they're like us, They're

(11:01):
gonna be heavy on the Chargers, all the teasers, every
money line parlay. I know people are talking about them
surf a survivor. So yeah, this to me is, don't
ever think it. It's harrball that defense against a rookie
quarterback in his first start.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
It's Herbert against a bad defense.

Speaker 2 (11:17):
And I think I saw some crazy stat basically when
he's a favorite above three and a half, Herbert, I
think he's eleven and zer against the spread.

Speaker 3 (11:25):
So it's it's like I got talked about it. He
just beats up on bad teams.

Speaker 2 (11:30):
That's what Herbert's whole career, even when he's had horrible coaching,
you get him against a bad defense, he beats him up.

Speaker 3 (11:36):
So I'll keep supporting your brother.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
If we get this one in at five and a half,
six and a half in our contest, either number, I
probably wouldn't mind put it in. My only fear is
Dart having that first start miracle pulling a rabbit out
of his ass kind of game where it's like I
can't believe it, me and you. By the end of
the day, it'll be like I can't believe he somehow
covered it, just because I don't know they move the
ball against his Chargers team, if they just double neighbors,

(11:59):
I just don't know how they do it.

Speaker 3 (12:01):
So excited to see what they're gonna do read option.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
They're gonna do some something funky with him and his
running because this comp I know it sounds weird. His
comp coming out was Jalen Hurts, the way he runs
with the ball, how tough he is his throw his
throwing styles.

Speaker 3 (12:14):
So yeah, we'll see it's It's.

Speaker 2 (12:16):
Gonna be definitely a game that went from being Corner
TV through one of my more main four games.

Speaker 3 (12:21):
Most likely.

Speaker 1 (12:21):
Oh brother, this is totally going in the four box,
one hundred percent going in the four box. I can't
I can't wait for this game. I'm probably gonna be
sick to my stomach watching this whole game because I
also hate those one pm games from the Meadowlands. It's
like you're watching it, you know, in a house of worship.
It's so freaking quiet early in those games, it feels

(12:42):
like everybody is just waking up. So, yeah, this is
a we're taking a stand. We've seen a lot of
changes the past couple of years. We've seen favorites covering
more and more and more, good teams beating bad teams,
bad quarterbacks, not being able to execute, bad coaches, not
being able to get their teams paired really good coaches.
This is a coaching matchup mismatch. This is a quarterback mismatch.
The Chargers defense as a whole, I think is better

(13:05):
than the Giants defense, even though their defensive line is elite.
Last week was the game the Browns and the Packers
were like, if the Browns don't cover his eight and
a half point underdogs with an elite defense, we're never
betting underdogs at home in this spot again. But I
do think this is season we're still seeing a trend

(13:27):
where you want to bet the better team. I know
it's dangerous. I still like the Chargers, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay.
Let's get back to a more traditional professional position. Tampa
Bay three and a half point underdog. You mentioned it.
The wise guys love it. This was Simon says. Look,

(13:47):
the Bucks are riddled with injuries on the offensive line.
They don't have Mike Evans, but reports our Tristan Wurfs
may play at left tackle for the Bucks. Chris Godwin
maybe back for the Bucks from that injury. A Mecca
Buka just seems to get better literally every snap. I

(14:08):
like this because I think the Box and Baker are
just perpetually undervalued, and the Eagles are perpetually overvalued, so
there's always going to be a little bit of value.
I don't know the matchups. Eagles have injuries too, but
I think you're just getting a little bit of a
better value here.

Speaker 3 (14:27):
Yeah. I disagree somewhat with that stare.

Speaker 2 (14:29):
I think that the Eagles were undervalued after their Week
one performance against Dallas rightly so should have lost that game,
and since then covered two straight and they're another team
that we sick. They could easily be zero to three,
but now the public is totally coming around on them,
and they've bet this number up. So this is type
game where it feels two and a half wouldn't be
that confidence. It's all about the number here with this

(14:51):
Bucks team and Baker because it is a bad spot
for Baker right, He's covered three straight games with three
straight fourth quarter comebacks that how lo can he keep
this up?

Speaker 3 (15:01):
Right?

Speaker 2 (15:01):
It's like there's only so many times you can ask
him to make those type of game winning drives.

Speaker 3 (15:05):
But my view of it is just this is the
type of game that the Bucks do.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Play close, right, a really talented team that they have
the guys that can stop.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
The toush push. This is one of the few teams.

Speaker 2 (15:16):
They got a guy like Viaave that can stop this
type of play, and that's a big deal when that
Eagles team relies so heavy on him for a certain spots. So, yeah,
could the Eagles attack this secondary with hurts and you know,
really open this game up for sure, But he's gonna
have to do it the holes. They're gonna sell out,
just like every other team's been doing it so far,
stopping Barkley, and they're the perfect team to do. They

(15:37):
just don't allow one hundred yard rushers, So bad matchup
for the Eagles team. They have their own injuries, right,
they might be down their number two, number three cornerbacks,
both linebackers. I mean John Campbell came in today with
a sleeve on his arm, and I believe I forget
who else someone had to brace on their knee. Might
have been Zach Brown like the other linebacker to bracing

(15:59):
his The Eagles are banged up like they just went
through a battle. So they're just just like the Bucks.
They're they're equally banged up and that as healthy. So
it's shocking how much love the public hast for the
Eagles team. Where I think the game temperature field tempts
has to be like one hundred and five. And this
historically has just been a bad spot for the Eagles.
Eagles haven't lost in a year the last time they lost.

(16:21):
What is this Bucks team? And you see it.

Speaker 3 (16:24):
With Baker, he's not the best as a favorite.

Speaker 2 (16:27):
He's kind of like Kyler in this sense that as
a dog, especially since he's been the Buccaneers, he's been
an auto play where it's like he just even when
he loses those games as a dog, he always keeps
them close. Get like the back door is always open,
so to me with the hook three and a half.
I can't avoid it. Love the numbers so much, love
love this match for Baker and god if God we

(16:48):
could come back, I'm almost positive he's gonna come back
with worth. That's gonna be so huge having him in
a book on the outside, Like you just you need
someone that Quina and Mitric will focus on. Then you're
gonna beat the Eagles without second receiver. That's truly the
biggest weakness of this defense that they just cannot figure out.
Now you're bringing guys up in the practice squad to
maybe pick that position to take on Chris Godwin. So yeah,

(17:08):
I love this matchup. Love the matchup as well for
Bucky Irvy coming out of that backfield. So uh to me,
Nick the line two and a half, it's still three
and a half called some key numbers here. I just
once again, if it's three and a half for our contest,
I'm probably gonna force try the ticket Sunday.

Speaker 3 (17:22):
I just have heavily bet this one. I really love
this number.

Speaker 1 (17:25):
I don't think you're going to have to force me.
I've already bet. I beted at the worst number. I
bet it at three, So I don't feel like there's
gonna be any arm twisting on this where we've talked
about the Chargers, that was my Chad loves pick. We've
talked about the Bucks, that was Simon says, I want
to bring up Washington. We owe people of brass balls,
and you and I haven't discussed our brass balls and

(17:45):
our rock and hard play, so it's going to be
a surprise to both of us at this point. Washington
at Atlanta, Atlanta's down to one. Atlanta opened at three
on Sunday. This was the first game I bet on Sunday.
It's the first game I talked about on the Sunday
Night Show. I actually bet Atlanta, UH thinking that Jaden
Daniels was going to be playing, actually not really knowing

(18:11):
if he was gonna be playing, but expecting him to
be playing, And so we don't know yet. He said
it's up to the doctors. He practiced. The line has
moved in the Falcons direction, like the COLV to me
is saying, if we can get the Falcons at a
more beneficial number in the contest, and that's a team

(18:33):
that just came off a blowout and was shut out.
The trends hashtag trend setter, are all going to be
in our favorite for the Falcons? Are we going to
have to put the Falcons in so we don't have
four favorites and an underdog.

Speaker 3 (18:50):
Again, it's a week to week league.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
I have no issues having a ton of favorites this week.
That's that's least of my worries. But I there's a
ninety chance that I refuse put in with Atlanta team.
I just the Penick stuff. Man, he's not good, and
like I keep saying, he's very young. I don't want
to judge him too hard because he needs time. He
just needs starts, He needs reps and needs to play

(19:13):
against different style of defenses. So I just can't get
there at Penixy. Like you said, this is an amazing
spot for Atlanta. Typically you know a team that gets
rolled like that, and now they're a dog at home
against potential quarterback coming off a serious injury that seems
like he's rushing him back a little bit. It's just
a weird spot to be back of the commander. So
I think your read is right. I mean your initial

(19:34):
read on the three was spot on, Like that was
a great number. Anyone out there that has a three.
You don't need to touch or watch this game anyway.
You have a great clothing line value and whatever. But
I don't know if I can get there. I just
I've gone back and watched the Penix.

Speaker 3 (19:49):
Tape and he's got issues.

Speaker 2 (19:52):
And as you see these defenses getting more tape on him,
it's gonna be interesting to see how he progresses through
his career.

Speaker 3 (19:58):
Because there's not many lefties in the league.

Speaker 2 (20:02):
And I know that's a stupid thing, but like there's
certain drops and certain throws he makes where it's like, is.

Speaker 3 (20:09):
This why there's no lefties?

Speaker 2 (20:10):
Is this is exact this got the exact reason why
or is it just a fluky thing that there just
aren't that many left tenned quarterbacks. But he's just been
unlucky to me in a couple of ways. And now
in this matchup, you expect after getting embarrassed, you know,
Raheem Morrison, this defense to bounce back. They should play
better Atlanta. So I get where Chad's coming from here.

(20:31):
I just I have no confidence right now in the
quarterback and I just have major questions where Washington, even
though he's banged up, Daniels, this is the exact team
he dominates like a bad team indoors on turf. So
it's if he was fully healthy, There's no way I
would touch Atlanta. But what the question marks if it
is Mariota and if we are able to get the
early number right, if we can get two and a

(20:52):
half against Mariota plus two and a half, is Alanta as
a dog? I could be talking into a chat for
our contest. Maybe, but at this number, no way. It's
it's moved too much. This is start quickly becoming a
commander's number in my opinion.

Speaker 1 (21:04):
We'll see what we get on Sunday. This could be
in the conversation.

Speaker 3 (21:07):
We owe people like ten, like more than this one.

Speaker 1 (21:11):
Okay, well that's a strong statement, Cleveland. At Detroit, we
owe people of brass balls. I wonder if we should
have a conversation about Detroit. It's minus nine as a
brass balls game de Troit, all right, So then let's
do it. Detroit Lions minus nine. They're gonna be our
brass balls better the week.

Speaker 3 (21:35):
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.

Speaker 1 (21:40):
And I'm pretty sure I just scared the Bejesus out
of every eighty seven year old neighbor of my mother
in law's on either side of the walls in her apartment.
This has been a wacky line because we saw it
in real time. On Tuesday, I went to bet this
right after we recorded the show. It had been at
eight and a half. I convinced myself the Lions were

(22:01):
the right side. The Browns had their moment in the
exact right spot under perfect conditions against the Packers. When
I went to bet the game, seriously, in the time
it took me to log into one of the sports books,
it had moved from eight and a half to nine
painted across the board. And then Simon, you and me
were on the phone after the recording, after I had

(22:24):
made the bet, it moved back down to eight and
a half, and then it got back up to nine
and a half and now it's back down to nine.
So clearly there's you know, some people who are finding
the threshold for where they want to bet the Browns
and some people finding the threat the threshold for whether
they want to bet the Lions. I'm still thrilled about

(22:45):
betting the Lions. I think this is such just such
a good spot for them.

Speaker 3 (22:48):
Yeah, I love them.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
And another game where you dive in the trends, You're like,
what's the bad part of this Lions team?

Speaker 3 (22:56):
Is this big of a favorite?

Speaker 2 (22:57):
That's what I'm trying to find here, because it's another
line that it feels like again sometimes you're just seeing
the field clearly and you're reading the lines right, And
this is another game though, I just didn't get why
it wasn't ten. Now it is ten, like one of
the more public books in all of Americas at ten,
So I assume most of their books will follow that way.

Speaker 3 (23:13):
But the trends are interesting, right.

Speaker 2 (23:15):
Our guy Evan Abrams had an amazing trend about this
exact spot with Dan Campbell.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
So he basically when he just when.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
They have a absolutely insane blowout, Right, they beat a
team last week by six plus points, they're twenty two
and six against the spread the following game. So after
they blow a team out, they just keep it rolling.

Speaker 1 (23:32):
Yeah, they like to. Ben Johnson said this the other day.
Someone asked him after the Bills the Bears got destroyed
by the Lions, was he annoyed that they didn't kick
a field goal? And he said about the Lions, they
score touchdowns. That's what they do.

Speaker 2 (23:49):
Again, It's just predicuts to what Dan Campbell is right,
This is all stats under Dan Campbell. So they win
by six, The next game is twenty two and six.
If they went seven by seven plus, they're nineteen o
five the game after against his Bread. So it's like
when they get rolling like this, when the offense is clicking,
they just steamroll teams and they don't take the foot
off the gas. Right, Dan Campbell likes it when the

(24:10):
team is rolling like that. He doesn't want to slow
it down. So he talked about it. There's ways to
neutralize this front four of the Browns, and that is
gonna be really interesting here because they are arguably the
greatest run defense we've ever seen. When you look at
the stats, what they've done through three weeks against really

(24:30):
good run team. I mean Josh Jacobs stud Derrick Henry
Stud even week one, Jace Brown with Brio Burrow.

Speaker 3 (24:37):
He's pretty good. Like when that when he was healthy
with Burrow, they shut him all down. So I can't wait.

Speaker 2 (24:43):
Like this is arguably the best running tack of football,
the hammer in the nail of you know, the one
two punch of Gibbs of Montgomery.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
So I love it.

Speaker 2 (24:50):
I think we're on the same page that you know,
might be a little scary here in the very beginning,
but as the game goes along, I love the idea
of a big win here for this Lions team.

Speaker 1 (25:01):
We've done this with the Lions before. I think a
year or two ago. We bet them at minus fourteen.
It might have been against the Jags and someone, whoever
it was. They came out to a ten to nothing
lead and then the Lions rolled and all of a
sudden it was like fifty five to ten.

Speaker 3 (25:17):
That's what I was saing about.

Speaker 2 (25:18):
It's away scary of betting these big spreads because we
see how it can go a million different ways. Right
golf as the off day, we're dead. But yeah, historically
have no fear people Dan Campbell in this spot. It's
been pretty profitable over the class couple of years, and
he backed it up last week with that Ravens fall.
Like Chad said, they blew out the Bears, they came down,
they laid it on that Ravens team. So they're just
they're cruising since week one. This is alreay Lee won

(25:40):
the best teams in all football.

Speaker 1 (25:42):
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting
sponsor hard Rock Bet. Week four kicks off tonight with
a divisional battle between Seattle and Arizona. And this is
where the sharps separate from the squares. Hard Rock Beck
can help with trends and insights for practically every game.
Check out this trend and from hard rock Bet stats
Hub right there in the app. Seattle has won seven

(26:05):
in a row against Arizona that goes back to twenty
twenty one. Incredible. Also, despite their famous home field advantage
of the Seahawks have also won eight in a row
as road favorites. If you like stats like these, you
can bet them live right there in the hard rock

(26:26):
Bet stats Hub with live odds. If you haven't tried
your first bet on hard rock Bet, there's still time
for you to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets if you win. Just place a five dollar
bet and if it hits, you get not only your
winnings but also in extra one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. Plus Tonight on hard rock Bet you

(26:47):
can get a Thursday Night parlay boost for the game
boost your same game parlay or SGP Max, so your
bet pays extra winnings. Here's a parlay I like tonight.
How about the under about the Cardinals to win? How
about Kyler Murray under his passing yard total? And how
about Marvin Harrison Junior under his receiving yards total. There's

(27:10):
new promos every day, so if you're listening to this later,
just open the app and check out what you've got.
Any day of the week, download the hard Rock Bat
app and make your first deposit. Pay a bull in
bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Semino
Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock
Digital LLC. In all other states. Must be twenty one

(27:31):
and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone
you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called

(27:52):
one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio,
Tennessee or Virginia, New Orleans at Buffalo. Speaking of big spreads,
this number is at sixteen and a half. You had
this rated at seventeen. It was fifteen and a half
on Sunday, got up to sixteen and a half, actually
got back down to fifteen and a half. I took

(28:13):
the sixteen. But what do we really do with this? Like,
are we confident of putting this in the contest? Like
I know there are trends home team sixteen plus point
favorites since twenty fifteen, sixteen and nine against the spread
twenty two and three. Overall, we know the Bills will

(28:35):
be everyone's survivor pick. By the way, that was from
Killer Sports. But it's still a huge number. And we
know the Bills have an injured defense, and we know
that if they get up big, they could just end
up bleeding the clock. So I don't know if it's
a contest play for me. I still like the Bills.
I didn't do a full unit on this game, but

(28:55):
I think I want to be on the Bills side here.

Speaker 3 (28:59):
Yeah, I bet they I bet the Bills.

Speaker 2 (29:01):
I'm like you, I there's never I was never gonna
have this in the contest. I just I can't have
any confidence in that Bill's defense. This is really a
Josh Allen bet in a fate of Spencer Ratler, who
just looks so bad and inconsistent, where sure he might
get him down there. How many touchdowns are they really
going to score?

Speaker 3 (29:17):
Right?

Speaker 2 (29:17):
And that will be introducing part where they've just been
settling for so many field goals in this color more offense,
do they just start getting super aggressive and stop kicking
the threes and start going for the touchdowns. So just
a historical spot for Josh Allen not great right as
a ten point favor in his career, He's six ten
and two against the spread, so thirty eight percent in

(29:38):
this exact spot.

Speaker 3 (29:39):
So it's just not sometimes we bang.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
The table for it's really about the number and how
bad that Saints team is that I'll probably be more
in on backing them at home.

Speaker 3 (29:48):
But these type of scenarios.

Speaker 2 (29:50):
Back to back, really tough road teams flying across the country,
then flying again up back up north. It just feels
like a horrible spot for this Stints team against you know,
a Bills team that's on extended rest, and we'll be
interesting what that defense is like they've had more times
if they got any of these guys back, But.

Speaker 3 (30:06):
Yeah, if they're fully healthy at Oliver's.

Speaker 2 (30:08):
In all that, I would have loved this spot for
this Bills team, but they just they have so many injuries.

Speaker 3 (30:13):
It's just you can't ignore it.

Speaker 2 (30:15):
There are ways for the Saints team to attack it
if they have the right right stuff going that day.
So I'm glad we're in the same page. We'll brebnd
it no way mixed to our contest.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
I mean, we might be eating some square soup on Sunday.

Speaker 3 (30:29):
I can't always bet dogs, Jed.

Speaker 1 (30:31):
I'm just saying we are. We are Square Quentin Tarantino
Reservoir Dogs this week.

Speaker 2 (30:38):
Because I just love the home teams. That's what I found. Like,
that's why I'm happy you're like all on the Chargers
and you know, I just needed some road team for
us in our contest where it's like that was my
biggest thing. I know right away, it was like, I
love the home teams this week, which is very random.

Speaker 1 (30:54):
Speaking at home teams Indianapolis at the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams are three and a half point favorites. We've
kind of just been hoping this would get to three.
It hasn't gotten there.

Speaker 2 (31:05):
It did for a second, which was crazy because I
was like, oh, it's happening.

Speaker 3 (31:09):
And it stopped. Chad, it went right back to three
and a half.

Speaker 1 (31:12):
I didn't even see when. Did it happen at like
two in the morning?

Speaker 2 (31:14):
No, no normal time like mid day because just again, people,
you can set alerts on your phone for different things
like this on apps. I shall not mention, and it
will tell you when it moves.

Speaker 3 (31:24):
So yeah, I got in a little right away.

Speaker 2 (31:27):
Try to send a runner to go bet it for me,
and literally ten minutes later it's gone. So that's Chad's right.
This is going to stay. I believe it three and
a half the professional.

Speaker 1 (31:35):
It actually looks like it might move to four based
on the price for based on the juice.

Speaker 3 (31:38):
Okay, I didn't see that. Yeah, yeah, I guess you're right.
I'm looking at it right now. Yeah, that's a possibility.

Speaker 2 (31:51):
I love the Rams and we've already talked about it.
It's we're selling a little bit on the cold steam.

Speaker 3 (31:57):
We do. We love it.

Speaker 2 (31:59):
I'm a big been betting them every week, it feels like,
and this is that type of game, just like the
Chargers last week, like you win this, I gotta started
making big changes, a big updates, Like I haven't moved
the model enough to respect this Colts team, But I
can't help but get over and look at who they played, right,

(32:20):
like a Miami, a Denver, and a Tennessee team. And
it's easy early in the year here to get sucked
in on these teams that look so well against bad teams,
just because the way the schedule breaks, where you have
really good teams playing against other really good teams, we
still don't know who they are, and it's like, well,
this team looks sloppy.

Speaker 3 (32:38):
They don't look good, they don't look disciplined.

Speaker 2 (32:40):
So like looking at my mouth, it's crazy how much
higher I have Colts rated than these other teams that
would shock people. But in this exact spot, I still
think this should be closer to what it opened at
four to four and a half. Like when I first
saw that opening line, I was shocked by it. But
the more you dive into it, it's like this Rams
team they usually beat up on teams like this Colts

(33:00):
team that you know have a struggling secondary that can
be passed on. Even bo Nicks was moving the ball
against this Colt secondary. So yeah, I look at this
matchup very favable for this Rams team. My biggest fear
question is how does this Rams defense slow down Daniel
Jones and Jonathan Taylor because they are real problem right now,

(33:23):
Like the best argue with the best one to combo
football quarterback running back. Just he's incredible right now, Danie
Jones against the Blitz. But like I said, it's it's
gonna be interesting how well he did against his other defense.
Denver is legit, but we talked about that it was
a bad spot for Denver. How can he perform against
a Rams team that is going to be very hungry,
is going to be desperate, and you know we've seen

(33:46):
that stat this Rams team. They were nine to zero
their last twelve games. They're only three losses were against
that Eagles team. So this is a team that has
been playing really well. We're getting probably a little bit
of a discount here because of a flu key blocked
field goal that if they won, probably stays at four
and a half. Maybe the professional put it up to
five and a halfs I was gonna say it might

(34:07):
get higher.

Speaker 3 (34:08):
Yeah it could, because like I told you that professionals
I've talked to. They're like us.

Speaker 2 (34:11):
They like the Rams here, but there is pushback. Like
I do know some pros that they're not getting off
the Daniel Jones train yet. They just think him running
this tike in the Shanahan type of offense.

Speaker 3 (34:22):
Is just working for this Colts team right now.

Speaker 2 (34:25):
So I know mean chat went to three, but I'm
glad to say a three and a half because that's
what's gonna be in our contest. So that's what I've
been betting all week. It's one of my bigger bets.
I'm gonna stick with it ends up being our contest.
I got no issue with it. I just I gotta
trust the Rams in this spot in this matchup and
sell an overvalued Colts team and just hope they cool

(34:46):
off because we've seen a football sometimes it takes five
six weeks for these teams they're really actually cool off.
So we might be stepping right in front of this
Colts train, but I gotta do it with this number.

Speaker 1 (34:56):
I feel the same exact way as you do. I
would have no hesitation with this one at all, and
I might end up betting the three and a half today.
I'm trying to be really really impatient.

Speaker 3 (35:06):
What's that a hard place?

Speaker 1 (35:09):
Well, I look, I was gonna we can do that.
We can make this the rock and the hard place,
hard rock better of the week. I think we have
two other games coming up, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Baltimore
Kansas City that could fill that two so I think
we should focus on those. So let's leave Rams minus
three and a half. I don't think it's a hard
spot because we actually both love the Rams, you know

(35:32):
what I mean. Jacksonville at San Francisco. San Francisco is
still at minus three.

Speaker 3 (35:37):
No.

Speaker 1 (35:37):
Nit Bosa Schefter did say Purdy has a good chance
to play. Adam Schefter said he had a good chance
to play earlier this week. Simon, I don't know about you.
You said on Tuesday you wanted to watch film of
rock Party in practice. I watched two minutes and fifty
seconds of Brock Purdy practicing on YouTube to some very

(35:59):
calming ethereal music that was the soundtrack. I saw him
take snaps and drop back. I saw him in the shotgun.
I saw him throw a couple of bombs. I throw him.
I saw him do one throw where he was running
straight forward and sort of throwing off a one foot
He looked brilliant. I know, so clearly he's totally fine.

(36:23):
Because we are internet doctors. The line has moved in
that direction. It did move to three and a half.
It might be three at hard Rock right now, but
I do think there's mostly three and a half's out there.
I'm glad I got the Niners at three because I
feel really good about the bet right now.

Speaker 3 (36:42):
Yeah, even three and a half. Well again, another I
can't believe.

Speaker 2 (36:45):
I just love these home TRK favorites, but it's like
another line I trust with this team in this matchup,
and the pretty things bizarre because they made it as
if it's like as if his toe was like hanging
off his foot, and yeah, we're going to be three
four weeks of an injury.

Speaker 3 (36:59):
And it's like he said on one game, and.

Speaker 2 (37:01):
Like Chad said, he moved, He was moving. You could
not tell he was ever injured. He looked the exact
same as he did in early August when he was
fully rest and healthy.

Speaker 3 (37:10):
So I'm with Chad is a doctor, fake doctor. I
don't know what to make of it.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
I couldn't believe how good he looked and that's like
you just said, that's why the number to me has moved.

Speaker 3 (37:18):
It feels like, why would they sit him if.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
He's moving like that, if he's looking like that in
practice on a Tuesday and on Wednesday, why would you
sit him for Mac Jones that you know, as good
as Mac played last week right leaving that comeback drive
you saw it, It's like it's it is Mac Jones.

Speaker 3 (37:34):
He is a backup quarterback party. It's just a totally
different level.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
And you know, my my question here is Trevor Lawrence
for as to solid defense.

Speaker 3 (37:43):
I know Nick Bosa is now out.

Speaker 1 (37:46):
Feels like beat it's a bet on Robert Sala. It's
what we're doing.

Speaker 2 (37:50):
It honestly is it's also I mean it's been on Purtty,
but it's been on Sawa in the sense of these
matchups that you know, it's it's never been good for
this Daguars team, right, we can we can look at
the data. I think it's the last twenty years whenever
they're traveling from the East coast to West coast, they're
three and thirteen straight up, three and twelve against the
spread in this exact spot. So this is historically Jaguars

(38:12):
doesn't travel well, and that I think honestly says a
lot about Trevor where it's like, even going through his career,
his offense has come out slow in these exact type
of games where it's like they whatever it is, getting
off the plane, whatever that old saying is like that
one team looks like they're coming out shut out of
the can, and the Jags never look like that in
this exact spot when they go on the road, especially

(38:33):
after a win. So I look at this as once
again a team that Jaguars could be very good offensively
as a season progressive. I just see that Trevor's having
problems learning this offense, and I know he's been burned
by the drops, right I think he Yeah.

Speaker 3 (38:49):
I think he's amount of drops.

Speaker 2 (38:50):
Yeah, Like they lead the league in drops right now.
I don't know if that's gonna be a quick fix.
And especially when you're going against a matchup against a
solid defense that you know, even with their injury is
their defense has been swarming and really good against these receivers.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
So yeah, it's more chalk.

Speaker 2 (39:07):
Another spot where it's a home team I love, And
yeah hard Rocks still minus three go grab because I
do think Purdy gets cleared. This gets up to three
and a half four by game time, so it's all
about line value. I would still if you're stuck in
the state that you can get minus three and a half,
I'd still take it, like I still think that's a
that's a good price on this number. Have this game
closer to four, so it gets to four and a

(39:29):
half and you haven't made a bet. Yes, you can
take a position to Jaguars. I just I wouldn't do it.
I just have major questions about the Jaguars team that
they feel very very fortunate to be two and one,
but also another team that could easily be three nows.
So a really weird team to try to get a
read on this year, this Jaguars team. But think me
and you're on the same page four nine. As we
know we're getting from this defense right now. The only
only true unknown is the pretty injury. We both agreed

(39:52):
he looked well in practice.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
I can't abide when you're giving me a trend from
the Jaguars that is thirty years in the making. You
know that doesn't mean anything. Twenty years in the making,
It doesn't mean anything.

Speaker 3 (40:10):
To you.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
To the history to logic. I'm with you. I think
I think Trevor Lawrence is.

Speaker 2 (40:20):
Trash taking his army ran to that Russian winter that
whose Chad is? Chad would say, who cares what happened
to Napoleone? Who cares what happened to the Germans? We
go into Russia. I don't care what happened thirty years ago.
History matters, Chad learn.

Speaker 1 (40:34):
Oh my god, that is a ridiculous analogy.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
It's not You're the same person that just says, well,
these things won't matter. Happened twenty years goes, No, it matters.
It's all connected, brother. We'll figure it.

Speaker 1 (40:44):
Out one way or the other. We want to be
on the same side here, and either you're going to
be proven right with your historical irrelevant correlation not causation references,
or we're gonna be proven right because the Semprsusco forty
nine ers are a better team and Trevor Lawrence just
isn't a very good quarterback, at least not right now.

(41:06):
Baltimore at Kansas City plus two and a half, Simon,
this one has been lingering in two and a half.
I think this is going to be our rock and
a hard place hard rock better the week.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
Oh what a rock.

Speaker 1 (41:23):
You mentioned it at the top of the show. This
is a sharp call, like the wise guys like the
Chiefs here. You've been pounding the table for the Chiefs
all week. I listened to the show on Tuesday, Like,
you made a case for why you're taking the Chiefs here.
The Ravens defense is still decimated, right, like van Ney injured,
the middle of that defensive line injured. They are especially

(41:45):
challenged against the run. Here's the problem. Chiefs cannot run
and Patrick Mahomes has zero weapons. So this is just
us believing in the magic of spag Steve Spagnol. Believe
in that the Ravens are troubled right now, believe in
that Patrick Mahomes can do something Patrick Mahomes like, is

(42:09):
that correct?

Speaker 2 (42:11):
No, They're going they get Worthy's worthies coming back. He's
a weapon.

Speaker 1 (42:14):
Oh I didn't see that, Okay.

Speaker 2 (42:16):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So that's a big deal as far
as the run game goes.

Speaker 3 (42:21):
I agree with you on that.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
Like Pacheco has not looked at Samson's injury whatever, whatever
it is, lose that half a step in football, it
just matters, right, It's just yeah, you can just tell
them guys don't have their burst anymore. But you know,
I look at this Chiefs team that they have faced
really tough run defenses too. So that's why I'm not
trying to be too hard on it. It's like, yeah,
you played the Eagles the Chargers. You know, even that

(42:44):
Giants matchup against that front four wasn't ideal to run
the ball against him. You expect it to be much
easier against a Ravens team that literally cannot stop the
run in any way.

Speaker 3 (42:55):
And do they have the guys that can make the adjustments.
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (42:59):
It just feels like with injuries they've had the Ravens,
they don't know if they can make those type of adjustments.
And it's also a unique spot of the short week
for Mahomes. Right when Mahomes plays team's coming off a
short week. He's been very profful in this spot going
back many years. Chad, I know you hate that, but
going back many years.

Speaker 1 (43:15):
I don't mind if it's the same player going back
many years, but if you're giving me a team and a.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
Franchise, super Bowl trends, oh jesus, they go back fifty years.
Uh yeah, I just Mahomes in this exact spot, short
week against teams, come off short week eighteen to three
straight up in his career, Lamar pretty good short week,
you know, like it kind of cancels out.

Speaker 3 (43:36):
He's five and three in his career.

Speaker 2 (43:37):
But when he's just on normal wrestling Mars twenty nine
and thirteen straight up, So there is a little bit
of a difference, right, He's much better obviously when he
has more rest.

Speaker 3 (43:45):
But this number, I'm still confident in it.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
But I'm glad some threes popped up because I could
not get over the fact that I wasn't gonna be
able to get a Chiefs three. I just couldn't believe
this is really gonna stay at two and a half,
Like this is really the books are that confidence in
this Chiefs team where I'm like chat where it's like
I'm betting the number, I'm betting Mahomes in the spot.
But I'm not confident in this Chiefs team honestly, where
it's like they got a ton of time to get

(44:11):
it right, but right now it just ain't right. Like
there's little things that keep going wrong. They're just trying
to keep finding their identities. So this one really is
about trusting Mahomes this matchup and fading a Ravens team
that just looks dicksfunctioned and as great as Lamar's playing,
I've seen all the stats, how credible he has been.
I mean, this is, no doubt, the best defense he's
faced this year. So it'll be interesting how he plays

(44:33):
against his defense, where Lamar's no doubt should not be
sitting here at one and two and like, I can't
you know saying he'sna be one to three after this game,
which I think he will be as crazy as think,
but it happens, right It's just teams with bad matchups,
and still would bet them to win their division.

Speaker 3 (44:51):
Still think they'll make the.

Speaker 2 (44:52):
Playoffs as long as Lamar's healthy. So it's not that
big of a deal because the season is so long
right now, but I get it. We're betting against a
very desperate team in this Ravens team that got embarrassed
in our prime time is about.

Speaker 3 (45:04):
Usually we'd be the other way.

Speaker 2 (45:05):
But the every probably talk to you likes the Chiefs
on this side, and I would say every Joe Public
guy I've bumped into in the sportsbook last two days,
it's just all about this Raves. You believe I'm getting
Ravens minus two and a half here, like a what
a gift. So that's why, like I said the chat, yeah,
I'm happy the three pops because I couldn't believe every
book was holding at two and a half. I was

(45:25):
thinking some professionals have to come in on the Ravens
at some point. So one book here in Jersey has
moved to three. So it's not a lot of professional
money on this Ravens side. It really is the pros
and the books lining up here on the Chiefs, so
can't avoid it. Got to take it. It's a good number,
probably should be closer to a pick. We're just getting
a ton of undervalued Chiefs love right now, just because
what Chad said, right, it's people don't know wheth he's

(45:46):
coming back. They doubt this offense, all their weaknesses, and
it's it's Lamar after a loss, right It's it feels
like it's a pretty easy bet for most people. So yes,
it's it's scary. It's two and a half still in
our I believe in our contest. But if you can
get the three right now, just betting the people, I
would grab that three in the Chiefs and it feels
like that's a good number.

Speaker 3 (46:04):
They do lose, it won't be buy more than a
field goal.

Speaker 1 (46:06):
Chiefs are nothing to me. Bag you say, you say
bet the Ravens. I'm like, that feels that doesn't feel
right the Chiefs. The Ravens feels off. The Chiefs feels scary,
you know what I mean? Like you just instinctively institutional knowledge.
Whatever you get that that sort of gut reaction to it,

(46:27):
that's built into all the knowledge you've been gathering. And
that's how I feel about it real quickly. I want
to talk about the Bears and the Raiders only because
this game has been flip flopping. On Tuesday, the Raiders
one and a half point dogs. Today they're one point favorites.
You can find both a bunch of places strictly for
the contest. I don't know, do we like the rave
If we can get the Raiders as underdogs, are we

(46:49):
thinking that's what we want to do? Like, I don't
feel that strongly about this team.

Speaker 3 (46:54):
I do.

Speaker 2 (46:55):
I love Raiders here, but okay, I will make you
force it in because I know I.

Speaker 1 (46:58):
Don't I don't like. I don't know that we're going
to have a fifth that we like better. But you know,
at the end of the show, let's sort of we
will review where I understand.

Speaker 3 (47:11):
Yeah, I'm with you. It's it's just a game where
I just love the number. Right.

Speaker 2 (47:14):
There was still a couple of one and a half
plus one and a half's in the raiders there and
I just loved it.

Speaker 3 (47:18):
And you know, it's it's.

Speaker 2 (47:21):
Data going back many years, chat with your Bears team
that they just don't perform well. It doesn't matter who
the new quarterback is after they have incredible quarterback play,
and you know, you dive into all the trends since
twenty eighteen, the Bears six and ten straight up, five
and eleven against the spread after they have a quarterback
that throws for three plus touchdowns. I don't know, is
that a Mitch Trubisky justin fieldstad or is Kayleb Williams

(47:43):
going to be a part of that, because he looked
really good in that game with no pass rush. And
that's my fear is that when he in the right
type of matchups, he's going to excel. Caleb Williams and
he's got no one in his face and this type
of matchup, but they will be blitzing him. They will
be having Max Crosby come off the edge either he
wants to line up on.

Speaker 3 (48:01):
It'll just be different to me.

Speaker 2 (48:02):
So I can't help but be a little weary of
this Bear's team coming off such a huge win, young team,
now on the road against a Raiders team that got embarrassed,
and once again it's another pro spot. The pros are
backing this Raiders team. The public very heavy on this
Bears team. So I won't it's not a game. I'm unfortunate,
right it was really about betting the number, like plus

(48:24):
one and a half. There's still one or two out there.
I think you just have to grab that for this matchup.
Is this kind of making our contest? Probably not, but
I do. I do really like this spot for this
Raiders team that you know has looked bad. I'm not
gonna not not gonna deny the public sediment, but I
think they're not as bad as people perceive right now.
They're not three points worse than this Bears team, which

(48:46):
is that's what this line is saying.

Speaker 1 (48:48):
Listen, for all I know, that's stat about the Bears historically,
could be a Mike Phipps, Vince Evans Bob Avellini stat.

Speaker 3 (49:00):
Since twenty eighteen. That stat, that's what it's.

Speaker 1 (49:02):
That's too bad, do you know, because do you know
who those guys are?

Speaker 3 (49:06):
No? Do they flay? In World War One?

Speaker 1 (49:09):
That might have been Sid Luckman who also still maybe
until Kayler Brims can prove it the greatest quarterback in
the history of the Chicago Bears from the nineteen forties.
All right, Simon, biggest bets.

Speaker 3 (49:23):
Well, let's get to another game. We didn't talk to that.
We'll have to.

Speaker 1 (49:26):
Oh, get okay, I don't have it on my list.
Tell me Dallas.

Speaker 2 (49:29):
We'd ever talked about their plus seven. It's no different
than us taking Cleveland last week.

Speaker 3 (49:36):
It really is not.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
You're getting a seven point dog at home in the
first couple weeks of the season, and we've all seen
that stat, right like those last couple of years, these
dogs in this exact spot, it's been very profitable.

Speaker 3 (49:49):
And I don't know about you.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
My only fear is it's Lafleor like he has own Dallas.
I think it's some crazy stat like they're five and
ohero against the spread or straight up against this Dallas team.

Speaker 3 (50:01):
And my biggest memory is Chad we did.

Speaker 2 (50:03):
Me and Chad did a live party with all of
our listeners and the game we bet on was the
Green Bay Packers is seven point seven half point dog
in the playoffs. It was over five minutes into that game,
so I will put that out there right now. Dallas
gets owned by Green Bay. If you want to avoid
this one, totally get it. But this is another undervalued

(50:25):
Dak spot where I love Dak in these exact spots
when he's ever, he's a big dog. Dak tends to
cover because he's so offensively gifted, and they have so
many injuries on the Cowboys again not a again I'm
going to bang the table for but I just want
to read the stats because it is so important about
what Cleveland did last week. Is a big home dog
and the same exact spot here, So seven point home
dog through games one and nine when there's there exact spot,

(50:48):
So they're a big home dog more than seven points
or more.

Speaker 3 (50:52):
They're nineteen one and two in the last three years
in this exact spot.

Speaker 2 (50:55):
Oh my god, And go back further, because I know
Chad hates going back further since twenty twenty thirty eight
ten and two.

Speaker 1 (51:03):
I don't mind twenty twenty. I don't mind anything. You
don't mind twenty fifteen.

Speaker 2 (51:07):
Yeah, you hate twenty eighteen apparently too. But I'm just
saying like this is this is a real trend in
the modern era that is carried weight here that the
rules have changed that have benefited these high powered, great
quarterbacks on these offenses. But the public Betsy's lines up
too much when you get good value of these dogs.
That's really what that keeps telling me. So hold your nose.

(51:29):
If you can still get the plus seven, go grab it.
I'm praying this is six and a half so we
don't have to put in a contest, but because of
that number, I have to do it. And I really,
really really trust Dak when he's a big dog in
the spot. In the last one, I'm a sucker for
this game. Miami's minus two and a half against this
Jets team. This is an zero to three Miami team

(51:50):
at home, and I know the trends actually hate this
team in the spot like they're actually terrible in primetime.

Speaker 3 (51:55):
Tear two has been terrible.

Speaker 2 (51:56):
At prime time and at home, but he just needs
to win by a field goal against his Jets team
for his first one of the season. I can't overstate
how big of a deal that is. Where it's like,
I know the Jets are just as desperate. They're owing
three as well, but I felt like they shot their
shot last week and they fell short. Where Miami did
as well against the Bills, but they never really were

(52:16):
as close as this Jets team was right.

Speaker 3 (52:18):
They were never in a position that they simply got
to stop.

Speaker 2 (52:20):
They were gonna win that game that the Jets were,
So I can't believe it's still two and a half.
And I know some professionals who are on the Jets side,
but their secondary of the Jets is so bad.

Speaker 3 (52:30):
This is how.

Speaker 2 (52:30):
Miami can beat teams. That's when the few teams they
actually match up well. Again, so I have a model
to minus three. It's minus two and a half. I
wanted to hear where you were at in this Miami
game or you're not even thought about.

Speaker 1 (52:40):
It at all. I haven't thought about it. It's fair,
not interested, not interested at all. Give me your biggest bets.

Speaker 3 (52:49):
Big time playing.

Speaker 1 (52:51):
Just want to play. Every time he does another one.

Speaker 3 (52:54):
We thought he's made his all time best and look
at this unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (53:00):
Definitely definitely Rams started off with the Rams. I've put
a decent amount of the Rams on the Bucks. I've
taken a pretty large position by the time we get there,
Uh probably gonna have a lot of money tied to
the Charters money line, Houston's money line. Those are like
two spots I really like and probably have the Denvers

(53:22):
playing the Cincinnati at Home probably will have Denver's money
line thrown there as well. So if you're looking for
really chalky money line bets, doing a lot of those
with those type of teams.

Speaker 3 (53:29):
But yeah, my.

Speaker 2 (53:30):
Straight up bets probably gonna end up with it being Chiefs, Rams,
and uh Bucks as my three biggest bets.

Speaker 1 (53:38):
Wow, Chiefs. Interesting.

Speaker 3 (53:40):
I know it's just about the three.

Speaker 2 (53:41):
Like the three, you give me the three, I'm gonna
keep betting pretty heavy into it.

Speaker 3 (53:45):
I just get help myself, all right.

Speaker 1 (53:47):
Our money line round Robin, Underdog Parlay. My dog blocks
your dog, Your dog blocks my dog. I think we
gotta go Chiefs. I think we gotta go Bucks. Yeah,
I think if we can get the Raiders plus one
and a half, can we put that in? Is that

(54:09):
the fair.

Speaker 3 (54:11):
You know you got? You love Atlanta? They're plus?

Speaker 1 (54:13):
Oh yeah, Atlanta. Then who's laught, who's left?

Speaker 2 (54:18):
I mean, I feel like we have to do it
every week as long as there are a big number
plus one eighty five.

Speaker 3 (54:21):
Carolina Panthers Panthers.

Speaker 2 (54:24):
I know it's sick and we're going against some respected
money here, but I just Drake may show it to me,
show me, like people are throwing these stats out after
you beat up throwing the ball against Miami Vegas and uh,
you know last week against Pittsburgh. I know he lit
it up, but it's like, show me, Drake, May, like,
let's see you do it again against another bad defense

(54:46):
and actually win a game.

Speaker 3 (54:47):
So I'll take that plus one eighty five with Panthers.

Speaker 1 (54:50):
For the favorites Parlay Bills, Lions, Chargers, Rams.

Speaker 3 (55:00):
Yeah, well the Rams.

Speaker 1 (55:01):
Who's the fifth?

Speaker 2 (55:03):
Texans are Denver. I just I'm like, I'm really into
those both The's okay.

Speaker 1 (55:09):
All right? Survivor bills.

Speaker 3 (55:20):
So we are we not thinking we're just going super
lazy and taking bills? Are week? Are we going to
try to be cute and go go Houston.

Speaker 1 (55:27):
I've been thinking about it, like, who are we gonna.

Speaker 3 (55:30):
This is the spot?

Speaker 2 (55:31):
We have an zero and three Houston team that could
easily be three and oh at home against the Tennessee
team that we both agree are lost beyond.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
Law and cam Wore popped up on the injured list.

Speaker 3 (55:41):
Did he really?

Speaker 1 (55:42):
I thought I heard that somewhere interesting.

Speaker 3 (55:44):
Well, that makes sense.

Speaker 2 (55:45):
I've seen a couple of books move the seven and
a half, which blew me away, because again, this is
another spot where you have if you're betting, you have
to bet Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
All right, let's get cute.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
Let's take the Texans, good Texans.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
I like it.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
Yeah, I like it too, because it's like the perfect
spot and it's just like we did with Denver and Cowboys.
Like I'm so glad that you took bad teams. Never
have to take them again the rest of the year.

Speaker 1 (56:05):
All right, sharp versus square? I won last week. I'm
gonna take the Niners.

Speaker 3 (56:12):
Wow minus three or minus.

Speaker 1 (56:15):
Yeah, minus three? I can get a minus three at
hard rock back.

Speaker 3 (56:20):
I guess I can't do Bucks.

Speaker 1 (56:21):
I did them as my right because I thought about
doing the Falcons, but I can't get him at three.
I thought about doing the Chargers, but I did them
for chat.

Speaker 2 (56:28):
Say I'll plant my flag. I guess I'll go with
I guess I'll go with the Rams.

Speaker 1 (56:36):
I like it minus three them up.

Speaker 3 (56:39):
I have to fade this Colt team. It's just too
much love.

Speaker 1 (56:42):
So it looks to me like the games we're going
to recap on Sunday. Chargers minus six and a half
looks like we'll do the Bucks plus three and a half.
You know, if Atlanta is at two and a half,
we'll have a converse against Mariota. We'll see how the

(57:02):
Lions are doing. But we like them right now. The
Rams minus three and a half, the Niners minus three,
Chiefs plus two and a half. I think those are
our top candidates. And then we got it with just
based on how lines are moving and what injuries we're seeing. Yeah, okay,
all right. This has been Sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper Square

(57:23):
YouTube on Sunday morning at a leg well, we'll be
back on Sunday morning. We will be back at Sharper
Square YouTube on Sunday morning as you easdrop on an
intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,
make utterly human decisions, and regret the rest of the day.
Then we will be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday

(57:45):
night after the late afternoon games seven thirty ish p
and Eastern Live to recap all the misery, watch or
listen on YouTube like this video, subscribe to the channel.
Also Dallas from Spotify, Apple Pops where we get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, leave this five stars, say whatever you want.
Feedback is a gift. Until next time, I Love you,

(58:10):
mm hmm