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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by a hard rock bet
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the betting show that makes the Square sharper and makes
the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Nolman. I
am joined as always by my co host, my companion,
my Cabadre professional Better, my bff, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon Chad.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
How are we doing, dude?

Speaker 1 (00:31):
We're doing pretty awesome.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Yeah, life is good.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
It is pretty good. I just want you to know
I have you know, one of my kids goes to
school in Philly. He goes to Drexel. He's a senior.
He's not a sports fan at all, but I have
completely indoctrinated him into Phillies baseball. The passion, the glory,
the fan base, the excitement, everything about Phillies baseball. I'm

(00:58):
sending him you know. You know how much I love Phillies. TikTok.
I sent Bryce Harper just did a video on a video,
a hype video for October baseball for the Phillies. I
sent it to them. We're fully engaged. We are all
on your side for the Phillies. I just want you
to know that.

Speaker 2 (01:15):
Yeah, it was pretty well the Phillies had. It's basically
a fake game. Last night. I went to it with
a couple buddies, and I couldn't believe how many people
were there, how rowdy it was. And then you know
there's rumors going throughout the crowd that there was like
I think it was the Dodgers didn't sell out their
game last night, and there's something else. Maybe it was
another team, maybe it was the Guardians. Riever, it was

(01:38):
just Phillies fans owning that being like, you see what
the people are here, and it's just like, Okay, calm down,
it doesn't matter. But I would be lying to if
I didn't say I wasn't nervous about this Dodgers team
just watching them, all the names, all of it. I
think I saw some crattats the first time the Phillies
have played the Dodgers in the playoffs since two thousand
and nine. So yeah, I'm excited as a Phillies fan.

(01:59):
But like I said, Baseball, it's very random. They've changed it.
It's not seven games anymore, it's only five games in
this round. So yeah, I'm I'm thinking of all the
ways it could go wrong. But like the vibes like
last night in the stadium, it's so high. I just
really do think the players that love playing in Philly,
the atmosphere, all of that'll it'll lift them up hopefully
this upcoming series against La because man, that team, that

(02:22):
team is loaded.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
Care of the day. All right, this is our Thursday,
week five episode. We're gonna narrow down the options on
our quest to find five picks we agree on for
the week. We are going to do something special this week,
Simon says. On Tuesday was the Texans plus three and
a half against the Ravens. I would say our show
had been live for about an hour before that moved

(02:46):
all the way to the Texans minus two and a half.
As we're leaked that Lamar Jackson his status was up
in the air for the weekend's game against against the Texans.
So we're gonna add a new Simon says today since
that one was unavailable so quickly quickly. We're also switching

(03:06):
up the format of our Rock and a Hard Place bet.
We're finding that on Sunday mornings when we do our
Sunday morning show so often that fifth game is the
game that we're having a hard time that we want
to put into our final five. So we're going to
make that our Rock and a Hard Place bet of
the Week from Hard Rock when we talk about it

(03:28):
on Sunday. So we'll add that on Sunday. Reminder, subscribe
to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you
get your pods. We've had a lot of games on
Tuesday in which you said you were going to get
some calls about. So let's get into this thing. It's
time forward, sharp.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Calls, half the answer this phone all.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
Right, rain range, telephone range, somebody say it maybe what
you do.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Yeah, let's run through just the games that obviously we
talked about and that they agree with us. On professional side,
no doubt about it. The Rams people have seen that number.
It's ballooned obviously up to nine now at a couple
of books. So we'll talk about that one. Miami. Shockingly,
we're on the Panthers. There are a lot of pros

(04:21):
I know they're on the Miami side. They like Miami side. Interesting, Yeah,
Cowboys another pro side. Talked to a lot of pros
that really liked that side. The Saints, no doubt about it,
tons of pro love for that side. Seahawks which is shocking.
I'm still dugging on the Bucks, but we can break
down that one if you want some more. Very shocked

(04:43):
here a little bit of love for this knowing the
Patriots side, and once again I think I'm gonna stand
the other side. Think I'm gonna be on the Bills,
but I know some really smart guys who like that side.
They love Jag the Jags, So Chad definitely nailed that one.
Pros are all over that Jag side, that number three
and a half half, No threes, but three and a
half's definitely in the professional side and a game that

(05:05):
I'm just I got a blind spot too. I can't
get a read on it. Vegas. Talked to a bunch
of pros that really like Vegas. They like the trends,
they like the number, they like the spot, they like
the situation. I am still dug in on the Colts.
If you can get the minus six minus six and
a half, I still think that's a prefer side for me.
But maybe they've talked me out of even think I'm
put in our contest because it is once again very

(05:27):
respected money on that Raiders side right now.

Speaker 1 (05:29):
Wow, there's a lot of differences between what we had
talked about on Tuesday and where I think we were leaning,
and what professional betters that you're hearing from are talking
about a lot of hate, a lot of hate this week.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
Yeah, that's I mean, that's gambling. Man.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
That's interesting. All right, here we go. I want to
talk about Thursday night just for just for a few minutes.
I know a lot of people are going to hear
this after the Thursday night game, but it has moved
so much. Look, this line was three and a half
on Sunday, and on Tuesday when we talked about it,
it was five and a half. Now you mentioned nine,
it's at eight and a half. Most places, the line

(06:08):
moves have been crazy, mainly because of the Brock Party news.
But then last night it came out Purty's not going
to be playing Juwan Jennings, not going to be playing
Ricky Pearsol, not going to be playing Nick Bosa obviously
already out. So you're not getting the Niners super Bowl
caliber roster that you thought you might be getting in
a division matchup on Thursday night. So that's why the

(06:29):
number has moved so much. I know for us, like
I'm going to play the Rams and survivor in one
of my Survivor pool contests, and I know that when
we think about contest for our contest, we're gonna have
to play the Rams because that line locked at five
and a half.

Speaker 2 (06:48):
Yeah, and luckily we talked about it on Tuesday show
and people were able to get that line. The five
and a half in the six. Did not see it
going all up to what it's become, right, that is
because they're down. They're number one, number two receiver and
now you have Mac Jones at third and eight with
two guys on McCaffrey now having to make plays to

(07:11):
practice players and backups like they're they're in a really
tough spot this week the forty nine ers, and surprisingly
Shanahan he's actually awful in these spots. So I think
your position to take the Rams and survivor, you know,
a little scare because is a Thursday game, but I
think it's warrant to hear where in this exact spot
when Shanahan's a huge dog like this. I believe in
his career he's one in eighteen straight Upah. So you

(07:34):
look at those type of numbers and you think yourself, Okay,
it's already a bad matchup, and then you look at
the ATS records. You know, short week McVeigh has always
been good between you know, his early years with the
Rams and now later in his career. He's seventeen and
seven against the spread on short weeks. So it's a
huge number. I probably have it right at seven and

(07:55):
a half. So if you're someone that's out there and
you haven't bet at all and you're like, I want
to be on the forty nine ers side, I guess
you can take the nine. That's the only number I
would touch, even though my model has that as a
much better value. I just I don't think it understands
how tough this is gonna be. Have a matchup for
this team, and you know, first half is a divisional
game this season. Could be a ten to ten, seven

(08:15):
to seven game going to half. But once the teams
make adjustments, I think the Rams will be able to
move the ball and the forty Nineers just won't in
the second half. So yeah, I'm glad we're locked in
on this being in our contest. It's a good good
way to start the week, especially this week where I
have games I really like. Not a ton of love
from my side honestly, So this is one of the
few games I love, love that we're getting a great
number in. Yeah, just man, we need the Rams show

(08:40):
up here because this is just a horrible matchup with
four ninders team. I just don't see how they move
the ball offensively. They just have so many devastating injuries.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
Look, I hope people were paying attention. I did better
on Tuesday at five and a half. And there's been
a couple of games this week. We're going to go
through them where we talked about them on Tuesday and
saying we liked the lines at certain numbers, and they
got to those numbers or you had to bet them
right away, and we were saying, go bet this number.

(09:09):
So hopefully people were paying attention. All right, Rams, it's
getting out getting it's getting out of hand. I wouldn't
betting the Rams now, but hopefully everyone was able to
get that Rams five and a half. I do want
to talk about the Sunday morning game for a second,
because since we talked about it Minnesota and Cleveland in England.

(09:30):
Cleveland is a three and a half point underdog. We
talked about it on Tuesday and the question we had
was why is Joe Flacco still the starting quarterback for
this team, and we said Kevin Stefanski had been noncommittal,
so there was a hint that he might change his mind.
Dylan Gabriel has since been announced as the starting quarterback.

(09:53):
There is one four and a half out there. I'm
tempted to take the Browns at four and a half
at three and a half. I don't know if you
have an opinion on this, if it hasn't changed at
all with Dylan Gabriel, like it's basically been painted three
and a half everywhere. So you got a call here

(10:15):
like I think I lean. Let me tell you why
I leen Browns before you give me your opinion. I
Leen Browns because the Vikings offensive line is truly terrible
right now, like in real massive injury deficit. So you're
gonna get You're gonna get Miles Garrett, who's playing like

(10:37):
a defensive Player of the Year, if not an MVP.
You're gonna get Mason Graham, who's playing like a defensive
rookie of the year. You're gonna get that kid, Carson Schwessinger, Swearinger,
what his name it? The linebacker who might be defensive
rookie of the year. I guess a really bad offensive
line and against the Carson Wentz who still can't seem

(10:59):
to figure out how to get beyond his first read.
I think that's potential here is keep this game really
close and for the Vikings, like, don't let Carson Wentz
screw it up. So it feels like there's a possibility
here for it to be a low scoring, close game.

Speaker 2 (11:16):
Yeah, it stinks. I was on the Browns. I really
wanted to be Flacco because to me, the biggest deal
is this is a Flora's defense. I could not believe
of all the games to put a rookie for his
first start, you couldn't honestly pick the worst matchup for Dan.
This is gonna be I Like I said, that stuff
Flora shows you he's never seen anything like, especially in

(11:36):
college football, where they don't These kids don't even get
coached to learn and read defenses right, They're just reacting
to their own offense, let alone the other team's defense.
So bad spot I wanted to be on the Browns.
They're the super public side. People are kind of leaving
the Vikings for dead here, and we've learned in European games,
these favorites, they tend to do well. But even more

(11:58):
so the chalk like whatever where the public is betting,
tends to do on. Right now, the public side is
this Browns team, So I'll probably end up just holding
my Browns bets I already made early in the week
because I did think it was going to be Flacco.
To me, the sharp side, we've already missed the value,
which was the under. Like they've taken this down now
from basically forty one to thirty six and a half

(12:19):
thirty five and a half at some books. So yeah,
that's that's crazy because it's again it's an international game,
tends to lean towards the over, so yeah, just put
a bone in it. I guess I'm on the Browns.
I guess I'll keep keep my under ticket alive. But
if people just want to tease this one, like tease
the Browns up to whatever ten or you know, nine

(12:42):
and a half and tease the under up or do
whatever something like that, I get it. I just this
game has so many unknowns now with those switch to Flacco,
and like Chad said, the all the injuries to the
Vikings offensive line, I'm I'm I'm with you on the
brown side. It's just not a game I'm been confidently.

Speaker 1 (12:57):
Miami at Carolina. Carolina is now half point underdog. I
feel a little regretful because when we did the show
on Tuesday there were one and a half point favorites.
It had flipped. Now it's flipped back to them being underdogs.
This would have been a Chad Loves potentially if the

(13:18):
Carolina Panthers had been underdogs on Tuesday. It's two really
bad teams, let's face it. And like, I still would
rather be betting on the Panthers right than betting on
the Dolphins in a situation where they've just lost Tyreek
Hill and the Panthers they're not a very good team,

(13:39):
we know that. But this Dolphins team is trash, really trash.
And I don't think that they were as good as
anyone thinks they were in the Monday night game.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yeah maybe, now that was honestly a perfect matchup for them,
and like you know, the Jets being the Jets kept
turning the ball over. That's really what decided that game.

Speaker 1 (13:58):
But yeah, and the penalties.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
My fear here with Panthers is Cuba Hubbard. They're number
one back to me is one of the more underrated
running backs in all of football. Doesn't get the credit
respected deserves from general public. He's honestly a stud. This
was gonna be a great match for him. He's banged up.
He has a practice shit this week. On the flip side,
you go through the injuries to their line, their defense.

(14:22):
The Panthers are just going through a lot, like a
lot of teams are on football right now. And I
know this is a huge discussion just in the football community,
Like I talk to different scouts, different guys and organizations.
This whole next collective bargain agreement. I think they're gonna
bring back more padded practices and just more contact with
people because you get early in the year here, all
these guys are all getting banged up, and it just

(14:44):
feels like it's all these different teams, and the Panthers
are part of that list. So it is Miami, right.
You just said Tyreek Hill. As big of a deal
it is to lose Tyreek Hill. He's honestly, statistically, he
was one of the better receivers this year. He's like
win rate, getting open, all that stuff. That's gonna be
a big deal. But I can't stop and think about
how this is the exact matchup to a thrives in,
which is zero pass rush, and he's gonna have guys open,

(15:07):
and he just does well against bad teams. You go
through his historical data, he always beats upon bad teams
and just gets ruined by good teams on the road. So, yeah,
it's a game I was with chat. I'm I was
confident on the Panthers, still gonna be on the Panthers,
especially at plus one and a half, but just knowing
the respecting money that is on Miami, their reasoning their

(15:28):
position while they're taking on this Miami team. I get
it because I did go back and watch the Bryce
Young tape and it's like, even at Atlanta win, he
didn't look that good honestly, So I'm worried about him, schuad.
I'm not gonna lie like. He just doesn't look right
yet mentally all of it. And yeah, Bryce Young slowly
puts surely he's playing himself out of the NFL, especially

(15:50):
the way he's been playing this year.

Speaker 1 (15:52):
Isn't that amazing? Yeah, number one overall pick.

Speaker 2 (15:56):
That he just showed something last year. I thought that
would carry into this year and just not at all.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
Well, chances are very good that we finally might bet
the Carolina Well.

Speaker 2 (16:09):
We got lucky they this season because I'm sure people
have seen those stats like they haven't one are covered
as a favorite in like four years or three years.
I think it was since like twenty three totally. And yeah,
they've just been a disaster in this exact spot. I mean,
they're just I know, the owner's trying to hire a
bunch of nerds and he thinks that's going to help,
but it isn't. You need I don't even know, you

(16:29):
need to just blow it all up. They just need
to start from the ground up. It's it feels like
everything they do is wrong and there are pieces to
like on this on this Panthers team, But like I
just said, between all the injuries chat, I just I'm
a little uneasy about this game, all right.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints. You mentioned this
from sharp Calls. I was honestly going to leave this
one out because the line had moved so much from
Saints plus two on Sunday night when we did like
it to minus two, it seemed to me the value
was gone. We were texting earlier this morning about some games.

(17:04):
You brought this one up. Could we conceivably responsibly professionally
bet on Spencer Rattler as a two point home favorite?
Is there something that makes us comfortable giving away four

(17:24):
points of value?

Speaker 2 (17:26):
It was three points, right, it's minus one and a half.
It was there plus one and a half.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
But they were plus two on Sunday night. There are
places where the rhine.

Speaker 2 (17:33):
Is too and that helps no one here. Don't talk
about that line because again I got that, but who cares.
I put a penny on that. So did our listeners
if they've ben bet it. But to me, this is
the line people are gonna bet. I really think it's
really about me thinking Spencer Ratler is much better that
people think. I believe it was. Pro Football Focus had
him as their eighteenth graded highest quarterback right now this season,

(17:54):
like he's actually played really well and the numbers bear
that out, not only using his legs, but he's been
really effective on third down. And this is really about
the spot and on Jackson Dart what I do like
what he's doing with his legs, and I did think
he had some good throws. They've lost the guy. They
lost Malik neighbors. I don't think we can understand how
big of a deal that is. Where this guy was

(18:15):
basically their offense. If they needed just a prayer on
third down, that was the guy they would turn to
every play. And then you factor in that this is
Dart's second start now after a win, and now he's
on the road, and I think we both agree with
the Saint suck. That's a pretty tough environment to play
indoors in that dome. So let's go into the numbers.

(18:36):
So QB's making their you know, first couple starts the
last five years, so this is a second career start
on the road in this spot these young quarterbacks thirteen
to thirty four straight up, so historically a really bad
spot for these guys to be in. You know, Dart,
I'll give him, like I said, the credit. You can

(18:57):
use his legs. That is a weapon that will fit
him against a Saints team that they do have a
lot of holes in their defense, especially at the linebacker
position that you know, even if they're trying to QB
spy Dart, I don't know if they have a guy
that can really take that away. He's injured. Like I
saw a thing about a guy that he's wearing like
it's his type of sleeve on his leg that basically

(19:18):
keeps your leg warm for bad hamstring. So does he
have an injury here? I think he does, so I
don't think I'm able to use his legs, which again
another advantage to us with the Saints side, and this
would be I side that no one's gonna bet by professionals,
chet like this is going to be. The public is
going to come into the Giants. No one's bet in
the Saints. Like we said Spencer Rattler, he's never won
a game of his career. He's oh for tennis career,

(19:39):
and he's now a favorite. The Saints viewed as the
from the public as the worst team of football, because
you know they're bad. They're zero to four. They are
a favorite at home here. So I love that the
publics on the other side of this. I'm with you. Obviously,
I wish this was still plus two. This would have
been a no brainer, would have forced it into our
contest at one and a half. I get your hesitation
because that with that teams you do want the best

(20:01):
of the number. But I love this spot for the
Saints team, for this matchup and just them being desperate.
I can't talk about enough people with sports being desperate,
especially as a professional. It's a real thing. Like I
I don't know, if you watch the Ben Johnson's speech
after that Raiders game, he talked about that the hell
desperate both teams were, and you could sense it. And

(20:23):
that's why that that's such a huge win because it's
like you need it, you're dying for. There's another thing
worse is competitive than losing week in and week out.
So I just can't help but feel like the Giants
are gonna be feeling themselves, are gonna be feeling good
about a huge win against the Chargers now going against
the Saints team that every week for the most part,
other than that Seahawks game, they've been close. They've been
in these games, and they've been hungry. So I'm I'm

(20:45):
pitching it to your heart. I want you to come
on the Saint side. But I'm where the fans are
like you, They're just like this is so gross. I
don't trust rather as a favorite. But I'm telling you
it's a good number. This should be two and a half,
should be close to the three. I think we're getting
a good deal here.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
On the same side, I don't need that much convincing
on the Saints, like I've wanted to be on them
the whole week and and just bummed about the number
more than I am about Spencer Rattler, And you know,
we just get burned in these situations. So I'm feeling
a little bit s.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
Guy swing the other way though. There's it's it's been
You're right this year. It's it's been going the one
sided very heavily. Whenever it flips, the favorites again burned.
But that's that's an anomaly, Honestly, that's been It's been
very flucish, where like every that game that keeps laying
on one and the team that became the favorite loses
on the one. So I'm with you, it's been weird.
But I'm trying not to overreact too much to it

(21:35):
because it has been so flucish.

Speaker 1 (21:39):
I'm not afraid of it. I'm not afraid. I'm not
afraid of this bet at all. Just telling you right now, Uh,
Houston at Baltimore. This was Simon says, we still owe
people and New Simon says, we owe people of brass balls.
We're getting to those but it was, Simon says, when
it was Texas three and a half. And like I
said in the intro, I don't think the show had

(21:59):
been up for more than an hour before this flipped
because of the Lamar Jackson speculation. So I wanted to
ask you you were so adamant that this was Simon says,
it was almost like you knew something. Did you have
an inkling? Had you been hearing something like give me
the background here?

Speaker 2 (22:22):
Again, I didn't know what to say, because it's tough, Chad.
I do have another job. That's why all these picks
are free. And as much people want to bitch by
the show, it's seven seasons free picks, and yeah, I
have a duty to the people I work for to
get the best of the number. For that, and again,
why I feel comfortable giving out on the show is
I've been betting it since Monday, and yeah, like the

(22:45):
that's the hardest part too, though, what to trust because
you hear all these crazy rumors, but that one I
thought I had some really good info, was really pounding
the table about it. And now that it has moved,
you know, people if they did get that number and
they want to play the other side, I don't hate
it because it's quickly becoming a Ravens line. And you
know Cooper Rush, he is a downgrade. But this was

(23:07):
nine and a half. So you know, ten points, eleven points,
what is Lamar worth of this team? It is probably
close to that number, So at some point it will
become a Cooper Rush line. You know, with him, Derrick
Henry Zave Flowers, you know he does have weapons to use.
To me, the reason I'm not pound on the table
about backing the Ravens here and I'm still comfortable with

(23:28):
Houston on their side, is just I can't get over
how banged up that Ravens defenses and how this Houston
team will be able to move the ball and defensive
they will be able to get stops. Like we said,
this is a historically great defense in Houston, and I
think they set a record or tied a record for
at least amount of points allowed through the first four
games with fifty one points. Like they've been dominant. So yeah,

(23:51):
it's painful. I love Chad. The show is about me
giving Chad the best of the number. That's why when
I texted you, I was like, Okay, probably should get
another Simon says, because how many people were able to
get that three and a half? Literally people are fans
hit it. And then the news came out like an
hour after the show, and all of a sudden, it
really moved about two and a half on this Houston team. So,

(24:12):
like we said, there's been buyback. You know, professional money
is obviously come on this raven side. To me, if
you have Houston, I think you have a good side
at the three and a half. Obviously, I wouldn't do
anything if I have to pick a side now with
this number, I'll be patient. See if you get the
Ravens back up to two and a half. To me,
that's that's where the value would be, just because I
do think obviously there it's a bad matchup for them

(24:34):
in Cooper Rush. But we've seen it. These backups that
come in that first game, especially this year, they've all
done well like that. Whatever it is, but the defense
and I be able to have tape on them. I
know they have tape from Cooper Rush from previous years
in Dallas. You don't know what he's gonna run here
for this Ravens team. So yeah, I'm I'm again happy
again in our contest, it's most likely gonna be three
and a half. That's gonna be an easy decision to

(24:55):
take Houston there. I don't know about forcing Houston and
at minus one and a half. I just it feels
like we're forcing a betting here.

Speaker 1 (25:01):
That totally right, Okay, Yeah, I only wanted to bring
it up because it felt like having done this with
you for a long time, I listened to the show
on Tuesday after the Lamar news and it felt like
a not just Simon says, Simon knows, and.

Speaker 2 (25:25):
I wish it was that much. But yeah, I just
I had a very very very very reliable source where
it's like, holy shit, he might be really banged up.
And you saw like an hour after our show got posted.
Yeah yeah, Schefty and all these guys came out with it.
So that's the toughest part doing our show. It's like
we got to do it and then post it. I
know it's tough. There's two hours in there that's wasted
and only Chad's benefiting from it. But I know it's

(25:47):
it's tough.

Speaker 1 (25:48):
People Denver at Philly, when we talked about this the
other day, it was it four and a half.

Speaker 2 (25:55):
It's moved.

Speaker 1 (25:56):
It's when we like Denver, it moved to three and
a half. And like I'd say, the last forty eight hours,
I've dug into this game pretty aggressively trying to figure
out do I have an opinion. I can mostly find
reasons not to like either team. And so you know,
like Denver's defense is great, but they're blitz in a

(26:17):
crazy amount to get all the pressure that they're getting.
The problem is the Eagles, like their offensive line is
banged up. Pass certain can probably lock down aj Brown
on Eliminade, the primary weapon that Jalen Hurts would go
to under any kind of pressure. Saquon Barkley has not

(26:39):
been getting the yardage that he obviously got last year.
And defensively, like there's a lot of holes for this defense,
especially in pass coverage. So my biggest fear, ultimately, my
biggest fear in backing the Broncos, which I will do,

(26:59):
is Bonicks Bonix against good teams. How is Bonix gonna
get over the hump against a good team.

Speaker 2 (27:06):
That's as my biggest fear with this, That's what I'm saying, Yeah,
Denver side, it's Bonnicks has struggled as a dog I
think he's four and seven his career against the spread,
nine and two as a favorite, so he's done very
well as a favorite in his young career and he
struggled as a dog Historically. Denver coming to Philly bad spot.

(27:27):
I think they're one in six lifetime. The one win
was John Elway. Which when did he retire, Chad, like
ninety nine or two thousand, so it's been a long time.

Speaker 1 (27:37):
I think I covered John Elway's last game, which was
that Super Bowl. I'm not I'm not even joking.

Speaker 2 (27:43):
So like it, it's a weird spot for this Denver team,
and it really is. I love the line. I even
had doctor Nick hit me up being like this is
my favorite game the luck rankings and loves Denver here,
and I agree with him. The Eagles have been very lucky.
And that's why I couldn't get over the media this
week what they were gonna do with this Eagles team,
because it's just it's what they dream of. It's nonsensical

(28:06):
talk about a four and zero team, and they're just
looking for reasons to pick it apart. Like I love
that Saquin hasn't broken one hundred yards yet, cause it's like, well,
I thought we were only good orgin was only good
Causeaquon was good. I mean, what's the excuse now this
year or you know, the defense. They have weaknesses obviously,
but you've seen that this these guys and how he's

(28:27):
drafted for this Eagles team. Quannon Mitchell a guy I
gave out, you know, early in the year to be
defensive play of the Year. He was incredible last week.
Kuberty Jean quickly become one of the best tacklers in
all of football. Like, this kid is incredible, and this
should be a good matchup for this Eagles team. But
I think Chad and nailed it. Like the the weakness.
What everyone's not talking about to me is just that

(28:48):
interior line of this Eagles team that Dickerson's been banged up.

Speaker 1 (28:53):
The Lane Johnson.

Speaker 2 (28:54):
Yeah, Lane Johnson's been come in out of games. It's
the first four weeks and it's unstable right now. And
that's what's been the issue with their team is that
when everyone's in and the guys are in rhythm, their
offense clicks, and all of a sudden, a guy goes
out or something one of the guys you know, doesn't
isn't feeling right. In the second half and you just

(29:15):
see their whole offense stumble because they just can't They
can't block right now. So this Eagles team keeps getting
away with it, like they got away the last week.
We should not have covered last week. I keep saying
that the line reflects that this line should be two
and a half. Three. We're getting good value in Denver,
but we're both walking right into it this Eagles team.

(29:36):
That's how football is some down these teams that are
underperforming a general public, they're winning games and in the
big moments, their team steps up in those type of moments.
So if you can get the four and a half,
I would go grab it. There was one still out there,
But like Chad said, this, this is gonna be three
and a half. Every pro I know is taking the

(29:56):
Denver side. Everyone agrees the Eagles are overvalued to the public.
They will come in on this Eagle side. This will
be another I mean probably will be in our money
line around Robin Like, it's a good spot historically for
this Eagles team to win outright, But it's that number
with the hook they're sucking me in. There's a couple
of games this week with that where it's like I
can't help it. I can't help it with the hook

(30:16):
still three and a half. I want it, I've always
wanted it. They're they're they're keeping it there chat so
I think we're getting a good number. I do like
this Denver side, and like you said, it's it's scary
because we're we're lying a lot on bon nixt year.
But I think there's other ways, especially with that run
game with Dobbins, that they can attack this Eagles defense.

Speaker 1 (30:33):
This game has a rock and a hard plays feel
to me.

Speaker 2 (30:36):
It does. I can I go, honestly see it being hard,
debate different.

Speaker 1 (30:39):
I just feel like we're gonna I feel like ultimately
we're gonna be on the Broncos. And by the way,
I was just looking back at my notes, I forgot
I did bet the Broncos at four and a half.
And like you said, there is still one place out
there with a four and a half, ye shup around
so you can you can find it. But I feel
like it's gonna be It's gonna be a hard one.

(31:01):
It really is.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
Uh Dallas at the New York j e ts je
Jets Jets plus two and a half. Guess what Simon,
The New York Jets are going to be our brass.

Speaker 1 (31:19):
Balls better the week.

Speaker 2 (31:23):
You know what it takes.

Speaker 1 (31:24):
It takes brass balls, Listen. I wanted this at three.
This could have been at Chad Loves I wanted a three.
It didn't get there until after our show on Tuesday.
I did bet it at three, even with some extra juice,
just because I wanted that insurance on the Jets. I
feel like the Jets are going to be in our

(31:45):
money line underdog round Robin parlay. You know it's clearly
the sharp shot or the New York Jets. You know
you can eat. Like, here's my questions for you. Are
you ready?

Speaker 2 (31:59):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (32:00):
What would you say has been the strength of the
Dallas Cowboys this year?

Speaker 2 (32:05):
Easy? Dak.

Speaker 1 (32:07):
Do you know how many points a game they are scoring?
Thirty twenty nine, twenty eight and a half, fifth in
the league.

Speaker 2 (32:14):
Yeah, that sounds right.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
Two forty point games this season. Do you know how
many games Justin Fields has won when the opponents scores
more than twenty one points?

Speaker 2 (32:32):
I mean, going back to his Bears year is probably
zero zero. Yeah, that sounds right.

Speaker 1 (32:39):
I think he is Ozero and twenty four when the
opponents score twenty one points. Here's why this is our
brass balls better the week. The Jets have given up
this year thirty four to thirty, twenty nine, and twenty
seven the good news. The good news is that they
are giving up fewer and fewer points every week. So

(32:59):
could be the week where they get a team to
score less than twenty points. I don't know, but they're
gonna be our brass balls better the week.

Speaker 2 (33:08):
Yeah. And it's a unique spot for this Jets team
that they're going against a defense that is, like Shadda said,
is as bad as their own defense. And they're inflated
Dallas right now like this, the public is gonna have
a love affair with them. They're gonna be all all
in on Dak, loving Dak for good reason. Like I talk,
we talked about coming in the year, everyone had forgotten

(33:29):
about Dak left over dead. I was the one down
on the table saying, this guy is still a really
high level guy. I get the pieces around him are
very bad, but they're gonna steal games this year. They're
gonna be a competitive team just because that Pickens, add
to me, is one of the bigger sneaky ads of
the whole year where it's like what he does really
well is some of Dak's favorite balls, those tight end,
those tight throws on the sideline. Dak loves and is

(33:52):
really good at throwing them. That's like pickens money, Like
he's so good in the small windows. So you know
a guy that is gonna have a good matchup against
this defense of the Jets, because I think we could
both agree Sauce is not now whatever that was and
they paid him. It's like the fear of every owner.
He just has. Whatever is going on with him off

(34:13):
the field has to has to have been affected him
on the field because we know the raw talent is there,
like he has got the skills, he's just not that
player anymore. So that's that's scary part is that he
will be on pickings. But thank god now CD here
and that to me is a big deal where you know,
Ferguson has really excelled this year their tight end for Dallas,
and that's gonna be another way for this Dallas team

(34:33):
to attack. But I think the fact that we can
have Sauce on a number one and now the game's
gonna be forced to a tight end in the middle
that's gonna benefit this Jets team and offensively wen't even
talked about it. I love this matchup for fields and
this run game, and like you said, I like it. Yeah,
that that game against Miami, if they could just hold
onto the ball, they would have won that game. I

(34:55):
feel like like, especially once that defense Miami got tired,
it was over. That's the thing with He'll wear you out,
especially with that run game. They have to win this game.
Like we said, this is another desperate team and at desperate spot.
And we have no doubt the Jets were of the
worst teams of football. Like I before the year, I clisemized,
I could see see how they could do it. They
could win games this year and they could be a team.

(35:16):
And they've had the opportunities, right, they could be easily
be two and two. Like they've had games that they've
could have stolen in won and you know, I guess
we should have known. Like that Pittsburgh game Week one,
that sums up these two teams, right, Tomlin would ever
magical win. Jets found a way to lose that game,
and that's what they've done this year. They're same little Jets.
So two and a half, three this is a Jets number,

(35:39):
you know, like Chet said, this is gonna be the
professional side. The square side is no doubt the Dallas side,
And like I said on Sunday Show, I don't know
if Dallas can be favored against bad teams anymore. To me,
they are just simply a bad team. This should be
close to a pick scary bet. Like Chad said, this
is our brass balls bet. You need to just like
last week, we said, when we're taking these bets, you
gotta have some some balls here for people to take them.

(36:01):
So I love that we're all line on the side.
Give me the Jets plus two and a half. You
got some balls, my friend.

Speaker 1 (36:07):
This is the prime time tie bump for the Dallas Cowboys,
not the win. The best they can get is a tie.
And everyone's all in on the Dallas Cowboys because they
did something against a team that a lot of people
think can go to the super Bowl. So I think
we said this on Tuesday, this is the ultimate Pilo

(36:27):
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(38:40):
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Tampa Bay Box. Going
across the country visiting the Seattle Seahawks. The bucks are
three and a half. You've sort of dug in on
the box. I haven't bet this game. I kind of
lean Seattle, and I think this defense is just so good.
And I don't think you can discount the fact of

(39:04):
how good they are getting pressure without ever blitzing. We
talked about the Broncos. The Broncos are great at getting pressure,
but the Broncos need to blitz to get the pressure.
And like the Seahawks, and I'm talking about overall statistically,
like the Broncos are blitzing more than anyone else in football.

Speaker 2 (39:21):
And though, right, what's that? Like Patrick is so good
at one on one shut down corner, they can use
that fifth guy to blitz. They don't need to have.
That's true. That's true.

Speaker 1 (39:34):
The Seahawks are only rushing four, They're like They're blitzer
rate is the second lowest in the league. And so
isn't that What usually gives Baker a hard time is
when they're not blitzing because it's everybody is covered downfield.
So I worry about that. I worry about Bucky Irving.

(39:54):
I like betting on good defenses. I think they are
safe and reliable. You know, I got I don't love
the Bucks. Here is what I'm saying.

Speaker 2 (40:02):
Yeah, and it's someone that loves the Seahawks. You know,
I get where you're coming from. To me, though, this
is a Baker spot in a cell spot on the
Seahawks team. And this would be a bigger bet of
mind if, like you said, it wasn't for the injuries,
because I do think Bucky Iring is a huge deal.
Like this guy is electric. Every time he touches the ball,
he could break it for seventy years. One of the

(40:23):
best weapons of football. But like I said, this is
a Baker number, a Baker spot. I had to go
try to find the numbers. Shout to my got Evan Abrams.
He put it all on one nice spot for me
because I was like, what is Baker's career as a dog,
And I think I was going too far back where
I just really need to focus on what he's been

(40:43):
with this Bucks team. So as an underdog in the spot,
Baker fifteen and eight against the spread as an underdog
covering by five and a half points per game. So
that's what I think is like built into me. It's
like Baker has been so good to me in these
exact spots, and how can you not want to sell
a Seahawks team that they are good. This is no

(41:07):
doubt the best defense they've faced all year. Like people
are gonna start realizing this secondary like the cover corners.
I know the Eagles got shut down. They got some
young studs on that on that team down in Tampa,
like Todd Bowles is coaching these young kids up, and
they're scrappy, Like I loved going back watching that game
where even when it wasn't even when it was a

(41:29):
tight window, they're very handsy, very physical receivers, and I
think that's where you need to be with the Seahawks team.
And you know Jsn, a guy I gave out the
lead the league in receiving yards. I think he's second
right now. He's been dominant for the Seahawks. He's been
one of the best receivers in football. On him and
Sam Donald of a real connection right now. So I
think it's gonna be interesting to see what they do
when you got Vitave taking again, taking away their run game,

(41:50):
and you have some really good secondary options taking out
JSN and that attacking offensive Seahawks. Like again, I like
the under in this game more than anything else, but
I think you're getting good value on this. This Bucks
team of three and a half, where again they should
have covered. In my opinion last week, this line's moved
too much based on the injuries. It was two and
a half, it did open two and a half, and

(42:11):
now it's moved up to three and a half. But
like I said, if you just want to avoid it,
I get it. The professionals I know that I've talked
to you. They like the Seahawks side. Not finding too
many guys like me that love this Buck side. So
maybe I'm not reading this one correctly, and that's why
I'm being a little hesitant with it. But yeah, once again,
just like Denver, they're getting me with the hook. I
just can't believe it's it's three and a half. I

(42:32):
just this game should be three. In my opinion, they
desperately need money and some other people to bet this
Bucks team, clearly because this hook has just been up
for three days now. So pretty pretty interesting line here
with a Seahawks Bucks game.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
Well, as John Popper once said, the hook will bring
you back.

Speaker 2 (42:50):
That's true.

Speaker 1 (42:52):
By the way, you shout it out. Evan Abrams, greatest
researcher of all time all the time. You also mentioned
doctor Nick, Doctor Nick Giffen, who created the Luck rankings
over at Action, which we love, and I do believe
that this is sort of the Eagles and the Broncos

(43:14):
game is like the Marquee Luck matchup in the Luck
Rankings this week in favor of the Broncos. If we need,
if we're looking something to tip the scales rock in
a hard place, Detroit at Cincinnati. We talked about this
a little bit before we came on the air. Cincinnati
is at ten and a half, seven and a half,

(43:36):
eight and a half, nine and a half, ten, ten
and a half. When's it going to stop, Simon, And like,
here's another exciting staff for you. Also from our pal
Evan Abrams. In the first three months of the season.
I saw Evan tweet this in the first three months
of the season. Zach Taylor, So September, October, November is

(43:57):
and sixteen without Joe Burrow his quarterback, Okay, like he's
clearly terrible with anyone but Joe Burrow as a coach.
Here's the other thing. According to Killer Sports, home underdogs
ten plus points in the NFL. Of ten plus points
in the NFL since nineteen eighty nine, fifty four percent

(44:18):
underdogs of ten plus points off a blowout of twenty
five or more fifty four percent. That is the history.
Full disclosure, I have not bet this yet. I don't
want to bet this. I know you're on the Lions, yeah,
but I feel like we should bet the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (44:40):
I know. Now I'm on the lines, and I'll hit
you with a bunch of stats like I've I really
dove into this one.

Speaker 1 (44:45):
Because because you know, I want to bet the Bengals, and.

Speaker 2 (44:48):
I'm trying to find reasons why I want to be
on the Bengals, but I cannot find it. And you know,
these just all these stats are just so alarming, Like
you said, a ton of them on social media. People
want to find them. But my fair one I saw
was it the Bengals. In their last two games, they've
lost by twenty five points. Crazy.

Speaker 1 (45:05):
Yep.

Speaker 2 (45:06):
They had under two hundred total yards, they had under
sixty rushing yards, and they were out rushed by one
hundred yards and gave up three plus sacks.

Speaker 1 (45:15):
It's terrible.

Speaker 2 (45:16):
No team in NFL history, in the Super Bowl era,
has ever done that in a two game stretch. This
is a train wreck.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
They are They are awful. Like we've talked about this
on Tuesday. The Bengals are one of the lowliest, losingest,
most undirect, undecorated franchises in the history of the NFL,
and the past two weeks of games have been the
worst they have been in their entire franchise history. Truly terrible.

Speaker 2 (45:45):
Yeah, and I got you know, we got lucky. Obviously.
We were on this team being bad this year and
failing and the Joe Burrow injury takes it up to
another level, right, And I said it before the season.
I thought this would happen because they were built like
a sixteen year old built this team. It's like, let's
pay the receiver, let's pay the quarterback, let's pay a
d end. The rest will just fill it out, like

(46:07):
just fill it out with random guys, and that's never
gonna work. You have to be smart with your money,
manage your right, pay guys early, do all that stuff.
When you're a bad team like they are. They did
the opposite. They paid all their guys late, and they didn't.
They haven't drafted well. And I'll go back to it,
you know, the same reason we loved this Detroit team.
I mean, it's been two straight weeks I've been on

(46:27):
them as Big Talk favorites. Detroit. Campbell. We saw it.
He won by you know, huge win last week by
more than six points twenty three and six against the spread.
When he wins by seven plus and more than seven
points twenty and five against the spread in the next game.
So they're the anomaly historically, you go back to the data,

(46:50):
there's never been teams like this. This has been the
most epic run ever. You know, we should on the
Tennessee Titans, the most epic run ever if you fade them.
Since Dan Campbell has taken over this team, this Detroit team,
they're seventy against the spread. I think it's like the
greatest run since some Viking team from back in the day.
It's like truly historical what we're on right now, this team.

(47:11):
So Chad's reasoning is right. If this was Week nine
and this Bengals team had been as often as they've looked,
I'd been like, well, Detroit has a bunch of injuries
to their defense, Chase will be able to get open.
He's gonna be bitching all week. He's gonna get the ball.
This is the matchup for this Bengals team. But even
if they get that seven on that drive, are they

(47:33):
gonna get to twenty one? Are they gonna get to
twenty eight? Because I feel like that's what they're gonna
need to do against this Lion's team. I just I
don't see their defense getting stops. They don't have the guys,
so Aden Hutchinson he's gonna do his thing in this game.
And offensively, I just I can see them rolling. I mean,
it must have insane going for the Browns last week

(47:55):
trying to run the ball and all the contact they
were getting to this week, it's gonna be like running
through paid. It's going to be unreal for this Lions team.
So that's why this number is what it is. The
books don't want to be up this high. Like I
told Chad, if you can find the nine and a half,
I'd grab it. I just think this will be ten
and ten and a half. The professional side, sure is
the Bengals, but I know just as many pros like

(48:18):
me on this Lion side, So it's it's a split game.
I don't know if it's gonna be one of my
five I'll make us forced income Sunday, but I could
get it.

Speaker 1 (48:27):
I don't think it.

Speaker 2 (48:27):
I don't think, yeah, again you're on the other side.
But I can't get over how bad this Bengals team
is and you're simply betting. It's just because of the
number of the spot.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
And how often do we say you bet the number,
you bet the.

Speaker 2 (48:40):
Spot number the Why isn't this thirteen?

Speaker 1 (48:42):
This is the I don't know, it's too well, well,
that's the handicap then, like, but at ten and a half,
it's still a massive, massive number that historically everyone says,
everything says, you bet the number, you bet the spot.
That's it. It doesn't matter if it's thirteen or ten
and a half, it's double digits, it's a huge number,

(49:02):
like you bet the spot. I don't feel like I'm
looking at our list right now. I don't feel like
it's going to crack into the top five. I think
we've got four settled, and I think right now Denver
and Philly is sort of the rock and a hard
places decision with some other games coming up. But interesting,
interesting game from a handicapping perspective versus a philosophical don't

(49:26):
look at the teams bet the number perspective. So I'm
excited to see how that one goes, I haven't bet
it yet. I haven't bet it. I'm afraid to pull
the trigger. Washington plus two and a half the Los
Angeles Chargers. This is when we told people to grab
on Tuesday, expecting Jayden and Daniels to play. It did
get to three at some point on Tuesday. It's back

(49:48):
down to two and a half. He was cleared he's
going to be playing. I just wanted to raise it
because the number had moved and we now know who
the quarterback is. Doesn't feel like it's getting into our
top five unless you feel more strong.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
Simon says, give me this commander's team.

Speaker 1 (50:04):
Wow, call me, Simon, what do you want?

Speaker 2 (50:08):
I want to play a game?

Speaker 1 (50:10):
What kind of game?

Speaker 2 (50:11):
Simon says, yeah, love, love, love this game. Love this spot.
Was really just waiting for it to be Daniels, even
though Mariota has been good, still would have been on it.
But in my mind this probably would have got the
three and a half if it was Mariota. The movement
to me is right. Had this game honestly is a
pick and it is because of the injuries's Chargers team

(50:32):
and I got some numbers about this Chargers now and
it's it's been kind of glaring, and it sucks that
I got I didn't get it. I should have covered.
We should have covered with that Denver game. That was
just Herbert pull a rabbit that hat like he made
a throw the way he buy his position. That Denver game,

(50:52):
that throw he made, it's like in the end zone. Yeah,
it's like two guys other than him in NFL history
can make that throw up balanced. It's it's why people
love Herbert. But when I dive into it, it's like, Okay,
this is historically a bad spot for Herbert and you
can actually throw herball in that. So shockingly, when an
East Coast team comes West, harrball, he's one and two

(51:14):
straight up with this Chargers team, which, again small sample,
Herbert eight nine straight up in this exact spot. Now, okay,
that doesn't mean much. Now let's dive into Herbert this
season under pressure. Okay, Herbert again, I say it all
the time. He is a great quarterback when things are
going right with him, right, when his offensive line is good.
He's got the weapons on the outside, just like most
guys would be. If you give him time, Herbert will

(51:36):
crush your teams. Know that. So this year He's faced
sixty nine drop back pressures, so that's the second most
and all football, behind Joe Flacco. That's alarming. You don't
want to be in the same category as Joe Flacco
this season. And so it's like, all right, let's dive
in those numbers this last three weeks. Right, So the
last three weeks where his offensive line's been banged up,

(51:56):
he's fifteen of forty two thirty six percent passing. He's
under pressure, one touchdown, two picks. So I have these numbers.
I'm some douche in Jersey. The Washington Commander's gonna have
these numbers. And they've been blits heavy this year because
they need to be. They don't have the corners to
shut teams down. They have really bad corners. And their

(52:17):
front seven, though, has been really good this washingt team.
I know last week they got ran on, but that's
actually been pretty good for them, this front seven. So
it's like, Okay, that's the way they can attack this
Chargers team. They just gotta get pressure on Herbert. Now
you're factoring I like this matchup for Daniels where they
don't they have injuries themselves as Chargers team to their defense,
they don't have linebackers or guys that can keep up

(52:37):
or spy Daniels. This is a bad match for them.
And what I've read is he could have probably played
last week. Daniels. They really wanted to get him right.
They didn't want the party situation right. Party came back
to really reinjury. The injury. I love that they were
patient with him and now he's coming back fully healthy
in this matchup. So I know the publics, I think
is a bounce back spot for the Chargers team, and

(52:59):
you know this, Washington just got blown out, So I
just feel like this is going to be a pro spot, Like, no,
the public is not gonna be betting this commander spot. They're
gonna be back in the Charters team, which just a
week ago, Chad was asking me if they're better than
the Chiefs, if I trust them were in the Chiefs,
which other time I was like, I get where you're
coming from. It's this is a team that's performed way
above and my expectations coming to the season. How can

(53:22):
we not overact to the Joe Joel injury, Like this guy,
you're losing your number one, number two tackles and they
are down you know more in tier offensive lineman. That's
gonna be a killing heels of this team they have.
It sucks too because Herbert's got the weapons, right Keen,
Allen's turned back the clock. Lad's been bad honestly, like
he's been outplayed by Johnson. Yeah, that's been bad. And

(53:46):
Johnson's been a stud. Like. They have three receivers that
are all really good, maybe the best three in the
history of football.

Speaker 1 (53:53):
ChIL oh, No, you're not pulling that on, chesting that
out again.

Speaker 2 (53:58):
But yeah, I just it's about the number. I love
this match o for this Commander's team. I think they're
being undervalued in this Chargers team still being there's still
got that glossy lens on like they did when they
beat that Chiefs team, which I was a sucker for
it too. It's like this team was fully healthy right
here at two and a half. All over this Chargers
team that is not. They're being priced like they're that

(54:18):
team that beat the Chiefs. This is not that same team.
This is a banged up team. So yeah, trusting the
number here, trusting the spot. Hold your nose, people, this
is a gross one. Give me this Commander's team plus
two and a half all right.

Speaker 1 (54:31):
That's why I was sort of I'm surprised to hear this.
I was going to pass it because the number had moved.
And now we know Daniels, so you're saying take don't
like it? All right, then it's going on the list. Now.
I feel like we're gonna have a rock and a
hard place between Denver Eagles and Commanders and Chargers. Last
game Kansas City at Jacksonville. I like the Jacksonville Jaguars

(54:54):
at three and a half. They are the underdogs at
home on Monday night. It hasn't moved to read, but
it is headed that way. The wise guys agree with me,
as you noted in sharp calls, you really love the
chiefs here. Well, oh oh, all of a sudden, All
of a sudden. The other day you were all over it,

(55:15):
but today a little bit less confident.

Speaker 2 (55:18):
No, would just be trying to talk to you off it.
I was like, can I get chat off this game?
Because this is gonna have to be in our contest now,
which sucks.

Speaker 1 (55:24):
It's like now I have By the way, it doesn't
I don't think it does. Here's why I don't think
it does. I don't think it does. Because there are
so many games this week where lines are fluky, we're
going to be able to take advantage. I think that
takes precedent to me over do we have to put
in a hard game like this? Obviously I bet it.
I definitely bet the Jags at plus three and a half.

(55:45):
But do I feel better about choosing the Jags over Denver,
which I also bet, or choosing the Commanders, which I
also bet, Like I don't feel obligated to make this
be a game that I am. I am demanding we
put in the contest.

Speaker 2 (56:02):
Chad not up. Take a stand here. You you love
this team. This was your love's lovel on Tuesday. Like
you're all in? Be all in, brother, I get what
you're hesitant. I mean that's why I was hesitant here.
And I'm like, I see Spags Love licking his chops
in this matchup against Trevor Lawrence. Word once again, they're
winning despite him. They're it's really about the run game

(56:24):
of the turnovers. Like you go through all the numbers,
I think they've already had more turnovers this season they
did all last season. So you know, this Jaguars team
that just might be their defense. Like we say all
the time a new team's gonna make the playoffs. The
CHaGS fit that description right now.

Speaker 1 (56:40):
By the way, did you call them the CHaGS because
I love them so much? Or was that just a slip?

Speaker 2 (56:47):
I just yeah, I can't get over it. It's like you said,
it's the pros. The Pros are on it with Chad,
and when we got done our show, I put it in.
Like I've been known every week, I try to put
it in R five right away and then try to
make minimum changes on it, maybe one or two tops
out of those five because, like we said, our early
reads tend to be the right reads, and we overthink

(57:08):
it comes Sunday, so it's gonna be hard for me, honestly,
take them out now because I have them in there.
I see your reasoning, and this is going to be
shaping up to be one of the big public sides.
Like I talked to multiple book makers in different states.
That's a big thing for me. I like hearing from
all different states because I don't want to just be regional.
It's all chiefs money. Everyone's thinking like I am, like,

(57:30):
this is such a Spags matchup against Trevor. This is
a Jaguars team that's been very fortunate they've gotten away
with it. But I view it as you know, maybe
I'm overrating too much of that Chiefs offense against that
Ravens defense. This is a good defense, this Jaguars team,
which I'm coming around on, and there are ways to
attack Spags defense right now because they do have injuries

(57:52):
and they are slower than they've been in the past.
So the pros love Chad's number, they love the three
and a half, and that to me is the key here.
If you're getting the three and a half with the hook,
I get it. Maybe I won't be betting this one,
but I we'll support your bet in this Jaguar.

Speaker 1 (58:06):
Side, then we're probably gonna have to put it in
because I'm nutting up. No one challenges my ability to
nut up. You gotta Simon.

Speaker 2 (58:18):
So if you're right, your genius. If you're wrong, you're
a fucking idiot.

Speaker 1 (58:22):
Isn't that everything?

Speaker 2 (58:23):
Though?

Speaker 1 (58:24):
That's how I live my life. So right now we
know we're going to put the Rams in. It's Thursday,
just so people know we're putting the Rams in. Probably
going to put the Texans in because in our contest
the line is at three and a half. We understand
you're not going to get that. We gave incredible discourse
on that game. Sunday, we're going to talk about the Saints.
We're gonna talk about the Jets. We're going to talk

(58:45):
about Denver Commanders, and I mean the Jags are going
to be in. So I'm not sure who we're going
to get out. We'll have to we'll have to figure
that out on Sunday. Simon, give me your biggest bets.

Speaker 2 (58:58):
All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done.
It's time for histories. It's not gonna help people much
because it was I mean, the Rams obviously Houston are
part of it. So we'll throw those two out, I
would say the other ones. I'm like heavily betting into
rate now Commanders. I mean, it's so gross, but it's
true Saints, and you know, I'm probably gonna have more

(59:21):
on it. Like again, it was the four and a half.
I did bet the Denver, but I've been patient on
that one. If they get back to four and a half,
where it gets back to four, they'll probably another one
of my bigger bets. So yeah, for right now, definitely Commanders.
I've really taken a strong position on that one, and
I can't believe it. The Saints. I just they have
to if this has to be the one winner, you know,
if they get two wins this year, this has to

(59:42):
be the one that they get. I just can't get
over this spot against a rookie on the road here
once again, Spencer Rattler, not as bad as we perceive.

Speaker 1 (59:51):
And you're betting into it even with them as favorites.

Speaker 2 (59:54):
Yeah, now, I've been even in them as favor been
betting it. Like to me, it's the two that's been
I've been staying away from. Like there's a couple of
books I've gotten to the Saints at two. I'm not
I have zero twos, but I do have a ton
of one and a half on the Saints team.

Speaker 1 (01:00:06):
Got it all right? Money line round robin, underdog parlay.
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks my dog?
I would say. Panthers, Broncos, Jets, Broncos. Well, I'm six lifetime, Okay,
how about I'm just throwing out some names you correct.

Speaker 2 (01:00:30):
How they're gonna win, just because I have doubt on
it exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:00:33):
Panthers, Broncos, Jets commanders, who else do we want to
put in there, Jags.

Speaker 2 (01:00:41):
Oh my god, that's fair.

Speaker 1 (01:00:43):
Let's go all in.

Speaker 2 (01:00:46):
I'm off that one I would do. I mean, I
have to do it. We gotta go what is it?
Plus one point eighty? Here the Cleveland Browns. Okay, gotta
throw that in there. I mean, it's a gross game,
but it's like that, such a coin flip game. I
obviously know the Vikings are gonna be, you know, the
professional side and the public. Like I said, they're all

(01:01:08):
over the Browns. But we've seen historically the chalky, chalky
public side has done well international. So I'll just get
them in. And I don't know if we got the
Jets in there. The Jets are up.

Speaker 1 (01:01:17):
We got the Jets. Here's the here's the teams we
have now. I took the Broncos out. So our money
line round rob round robin, Underdog Parlay, Panthers, Jets, Commanders, Jags, Browns.
Let's go round robin, money line favorite Parlay, Cardinals, Cardinals, Colts, Bills.

Speaker 2 (01:01:45):
Shoot the bills are bills are Yeah, we can throw
them in. They're minus two forty five. If you want
to do the Bills minus two and a half. People
in your round Robin that's that's probably better value. I just,
I honestly think they're gonna roll the Patriots there, But
just to be safe, I know, Mac or I shouldn't
say that. Drake May he's two and zer against the
spreading his career against the Bills, so he's kept a

(01:02:05):
close new Spots. But like me and Chad both agree
this is we didn't talk a much about it. I
love that Patriots game so much because if the Patriots
win it, this could be the starter of something for
them as a fan where it's like you beat the
big bad wolf, like that is this is your dream
snare Drake May, who people are being like, this guy's

(01:02:26):
the greatest quarterback ever. You've seen his dats through three
four weeks. All that is just noise and bullshit. This
is truly defining career season type of game for Drake
May where he steals this game. Oh my god, even
pundits like me are gonna have to give them a
ton of credit. But this should be a Josh Allen
beats the shit, yes out of this Patriots team. So
I'm with you. I like I like them throwing them

(01:02:47):
in there.

Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
And Cardinals, Bill's Lions Colts and I put in the Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (01:02:53):
Yeah, okay, I'll do that.

Speaker 1 (01:02:55):
Money line round Robin Cardinals, Bill's Lions, Seahawks survivor Arizona Cardinals.

Speaker 2 (01:03:10):
Yep, don't think about it. What daring it. I'm probably
gonna be on Arizona's number two. It's I know it's
a minus seven and a half, but yeah, I'm uh.
I just the more I watch this Tennessee team, they
look totally checked out.

Speaker 1 (01:03:21):
All right, sharp versus square? You won last week? You
had the Rams, I had the Niners. This so you
get to go first? Who are you gonna take?

Speaker 2 (01:03:31):
Just going all in on the on the Saints. I'm
gonna go to the Saints. Wow, I know I hate it,
but it's I can't do Commanders again. I just gave
him out.

Speaker 1 (01:03:39):
Simon says, so right, I was gonna say, Simon.

Speaker 2 (01:03:41):
Season a week has kind of sent me back a
little bit because I can use my second favorite bet
for this. But I'll go my third favorite bet. Give me,
give me the Saints.

Speaker 1 (01:03:49):
Interesting, I will go with if we're gonna go bad.
If you're gonna go with the Saints, I'm gonna go
with the Jets.

Speaker 2 (01:03:56):
There you go, so.

Speaker 1 (01:03:57):
There we go Sharp versus Square this week and Saints.
I thought we were going to do Chiefs versus Jags,
but it feels like you've walked away from that a
little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:04:06):
And we can. But I don't want to have the
Jugs in our contest and then have to sure bet
and now I'm like rooting against it. I'm not sure.
That's that's very chat. That's not me.

Speaker 1 (01:04:14):
I don't do that at all.

Speaker 2 (01:04:15):
You do it all the time.

Speaker 1 (01:04:17):
I hate that feeling. I hate all of the feelings.
You know this, Every feeling makes me uncomfortable. Other than
unadulterated joy and optimism that ignores all bad news and
anything that is uncomfortable. I don't want any other feelings
in life or in betting.

Speaker 2 (01:04:37):
Yeah, got one more step before we go. I just
I love someone. Just text me this stat forty nine
ers pressure rate last week without Nick Bosa, thirty second
in the league. It's not good, not good.

Speaker 1 (01:04:50):
No bueno. All right. This has been Sharper Square, part
of the Volume podcast network. We will be back on
Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. As you eavesdrop an
intimate conversation between me and Simon in which we will panic,
make utterly human decisions and regret the rest of the day.
Then will we will be back on Sharper Square YouTube

(01:05:13):
Sunday night, seven point thirty ish as soon as the
late afternoon games end. To recap all that misery, watch
or listen on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.
Subscribe to the channel. Also down from Spotify, Apple Pods,
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe. Webus five
stars say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until
next time, Love you,

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