Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets: Lions-Chiefs, Cowboys-Panthers, Patriots-Saints, 49ers-Bucs and more - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am
joined as always by my still bff, my companion, my
compadre professional better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Hello, Simon Shot. How are we doing? Brother?

Speaker 1 (00:29):
We are freaking great. You and I are still BFFs.
I don't want anyone worried about if people were asking
me questions. People were concerned. Some people loved when it
got spicy on Tuesday. I enjoyed it too. I feel
like it's going to make it for a more interesting Thursday.
As we are on the Thursday week six episode trying
to narrow down our options on our quest for our

(00:51):
five favorite picks, and if Tuesday show was any indication,
it might be tougher to narrow it down on our
journey than usual. A couple quick reminders. Number One, we
tease this on Sunday. Thanks to our wonderful benefactors at

(01:12):
hard Rock bet Or, we are going to be relaunching
our free to play five games against the spread pick
them contests that we've done for the past couple of years.
A lot of our old head listeners know what this is.
But you guys get to compete against me and Simon
in a free to play pick them contest that will
be prizing from hard Rock Bet. We're going to announce

(01:34):
the ability to sign up next week. It's a blast
and we're excited to participate and join. Everybody who's going
to sign up to compete against me and Simon will
give up all the details starting next week. Subscribe to
Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify, wherever you get
your pods. Let's get this thing going. It's time for

(01:58):
sharp calls, half.

Speaker 2 (02:02):
Answer this boat all right, rain range, telephone range.

Speaker 1 (02:08):
Somebody said, maybe you do the.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Yeah, busy busy week. I feel like we did pretty
good though giving out what side we thargeting professional side,
and it's it's pretty much gone that way. We've already
seen Panthers line moved, so that was a regret should
I made. Simon says, I thought it was gonna maybe
get the four. That's why I didn't. The three and
a halfs are basically gone. There's pretty much just three's
out now on Carolina. I got a lot of calls

(02:33):
about that one, A lot of love for the Jags,
a lot of love for the Colts, uh, which again
both sides. It feels like that we were on from
the get go Pittsburgh surprisingly, and I do think it
was about the number right, like a show, and that
number was four. I know a lot of guys are
grabbed the four, four and a half and even the five.
So if people are wondering what side the pros around,

(02:54):
I think they're joining the public on that side. I
think they really liked the Pittsburgh in that exact spot,
which is a game we can go through. I got
a lot of fun numbers on it, didn't talk much
about it. Still trying to figure out it. H forty
nine ers. I know a lot of pros that love
the forty nine ers on the spot. They love the number,
they love this matchup for them, and a lot of

(03:15):
what they say is true. The Bucks are banged up,
they do have injuries now to their secondary as well.
Like I get it, that's a game I guess we
can go through. I just total blind spot to me.
I just thought that was a Bucks number minus three, prety, Like,
I don't think you practiced yesterday, so did not really interesting.
The pros are so heavy on this forty nine ers team,
and that's always something that just sends the alarms off

(03:36):
when it's like, what am I missing here? Why do
they love this number so much? You know, it's it's
a unique spot. We talked about it briefly too, you know,
we talked about how we liked the Bears. I know
a lot of pros. They really like the Commanders. They
liked the number, they like the spot. So that's one
we can talk about. The last one I think we
knew was coming. Chiefs all pros. It's gonna be pros

(04:00):
versus Joe's. I know a couple pros that have taken
positions on Detroit, but they're doing it when most I
think pros have, which is their model has this as
Detroit is a favorite, which I think most pros do
and like. To me, my push back to them is
that should tell you something when everyone has the same
number and it's way off in the books, like I said,
are taking a ton of money and they're not budgeting here,

(04:22):
so that number has come down like it was stuck
in minus two and a half. There are some one
and a half's now popping up if you want to
get the chief side. But that just sounds like it's
the pro side, and I'm not shocked by that. I
just thought there's gonna be more money in respect on
this Detroit side for professional betters, and it just seems
like they're going to trust the trends in the spot

(04:43):
and back this Chiefs teamer. So really really fun matchups
to break down this week.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah, I really want to get into that Bucks Niners
game because you have been on the bus and I
am shocked at all the action coming in on the
Niners from professionals. We're going to dig into all that
and more. We'll get to brass balls, biggest bets, all
that kind of good stuff as we go through the show. First,

(05:08):
want to talk about Dallas at Carolina. You liked it
at three and a half. We both bet it at
three and a half. This is I think where the
slow burn anger began on Tuesday because I was not
as committed to Carolina as you were. The line has
moved in that direction as I've done more research. It

(05:29):
obviously makes sense and we can see why the number
has been moving in that direction. Cowboys dead last in
defensive DVOA. They give up the most yards per attempt
the most that number increase most yards per attempt meaning
passing attempt. That number increases against mobile qbs, which I

(05:52):
would qualify Bryce Young as a mobile QB for his
ability to move around in the pocket and keep his
eyes down field. Everything about Bryce Young has been improving
the past couple of weeks, and we've talked about Dave
Kanalis and how he's been able to make Bryce Young
a better quarterback. Also, more than likely they're getting back

(06:13):
Shuba Hubbard. Dallas still riddled with injuries. Even if they
hold up like they did against the Jets, the Panthers
offense is more than capable of neutralizing all of the
offensive capabilities that the Cowboys have when they're playing at
home in Carolina. Totally makes sense. I've come to love

(06:36):
this play. I betted at three and a half it
is now at three.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
Yeah, like I said, should should have just made this one,
Simon says. I again, thought it was gonna come down,
but didn't think could come down that quick. The professionals
came in on it, and yeah, I still love it,
Still want people to bet it. I hope people have
bet it when it was three and a half. We
can start with all the Dax stats if we want,
just because I have heard pushback from some pros and
some people that why they are betting Dallas, and I said, well,

(07:05):
you're lucky. It's down to three now, so you've got
even better of a number, which again the DAK members
here pretty alarming. We've already talked about Dak verst bad teams,
and he burned us last week with it. We know
how dominant Dak is against bad teams, right, He's forty
and thirteen straight up when he's playing against a team
below five hundred, so seventy six percent, thirty three eighteen
and two so sixty five percent against the spread. He's

(07:28):
you know, winning those games by nine point seven points
per game. So we've seen historically Dak does really well
the exact spots. And another one that jumped out. You
know Dak, you would think, okay, this is a back
to back road game, how is he doing in these
type of spots. He's twelve and five against the spread,

(07:48):
and in the first three months of the season he
is nine to one against the spread. So it's not ideal.
Like when you dive into those numbers. It'say like, Okay,
Dak performs well here. But I do want to give
out the stats we do like about Carolina and why
I talked a little bit about it. I just think
they're a different team at home. I know it's a
crazy small sample. We can go back to just Bryce's career,

(08:11):
which he's dreadful on the road. I don't know if
we've seen the stat chat he is one in fifteen
on the road straight up in his career.

Speaker 1 (08:18):
I have not seen that.

Speaker 2 (08:19):
Well, yeah, so that already should let you know that. Okay,
he just doesn't win road games. So that could be
our thing where we just stay away from him on
the road. I mean, obviously spread we can talk about,
but never take them in our money line parlay that
we love doing these underdogs. But when he got consistently
home games, so back to back home games in his career,

(08:39):
he's four and one against the spread. So again, very
small sample, but that just shows in his career when
he is back to back home games, he's comfortable, he
does well, and the market still undervalues him. He's averaging
twenty six points per game in those matchups. So again
that's a big deal. But chat he's talking about this
is a historically bad Dallas defense, which another stat I loved,

(09:01):
so since two thousand and three. Again, this is how
unique of a spot this is. You have a defense
and an offense in Dallas. It's given up four hundred
plus yards per game. Again very unique. So when you
get six games in the season, these teams again that
give up a shit ton of yards defensively, they're thirty nine,
fifty against the spread, twenty six or forty against the

(09:22):
spread in this exact spot. So you see that they
can score, but the market tends to favorite their offense,
where what burns these people is the defense. That's why
when I look at that number, the hook did matter.
You wanted the three and a half because it feels
like when I look at these numbers, it's telling me
dak is going to win this game somehow. But if
you get the hook, it's a real live cover with

(09:43):
this this Caroline team. So again I don't mind getting
the three. It's the professional number you've seen. It's all
the money. I mean, I talk to bookmakers, it's all Dallas.
So that is very smart professional money that I've hit
these different books that have moved from three and a
half to three, and it's holding there. So if you
want to be patient, if you missed the three and
a half, there are still a couple out there if
you can find it. If not, I think if you wait,

(10:06):
we'll see much more professional when it comes out. I
do see this getting back to three and a half
because I just see the general public coming in so
heavy on this cowboy side, where you know the numbers,
the trends and stuff. It backs up the love for Dak.
So I think you can be patient here and get
this three and a half again again. We talked about
making this one of our bets today. I'm not going
to force it in just because we did miss the

(10:26):
best number and I personally have only bet this three
and a half, so I don't want to be given
out the three on this Carolina side.

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Right we talked about making it our brass balls better
of the week. We're not that stat about Dak against
bad teams is somewhat concerning, but I do think it's
a little bit mitigated because most of that has come
when he had some semblance of a defense and this
was just a better team. And right now this defense

(10:52):
is truly awful and You can look at that Jets
game last week, and you can see if you squint,
if you really hard, you could see how that game
is much closer, Like the Jets just consistently give points away,
like truly give touchdowns away, and so if you get

(11:13):
beyond sort of the variance plays all of a sudden,
it's a different game. And this Cowboys team is really
defensively so freaking bad. I like Bryce in a shootout,
I just do. I think Bryce might be psychotic, like
the way he is just unconscious about throwing the ball

(11:34):
down the field. They were down seventeen to nothing, and
then at one point like he had thrown a pick,
then he had thrown a pass it hit a camera
guy in the head. He's just laughing about it, like
he's playing I think as well as he can play.
And I really like Canalis as a coach. So we
like the Panthers, but it's not gonna be our brass
Balls bet of the week because we don't like the

(11:57):
number as much, at least the one that we can
share with our listeners and our viewers. However, the LA
Chargers are four point favorites at the Miami Dolphins. This
is going to be our brass balls better the Week
presented by hard Rock Bet you know.

Speaker 2 (12:17):
What it takes, brass balls.

Speaker 1 (12:22):
We came on the air, we were talking about this,
and you had one question, are we stepping in it?
And I completely think we are. I was nervous about
this one on Wednesday afternoon because the move had been
against us. We talked about it on Tuesday and both
like the Chargers the mod the line had dropped from

(12:44):
four and a half to four. That's where I actually
bet it. Over the past twenty four hours in a
lot of places outside of hard Rock, it's moved back
up to four and a half. So I feel, you know,
a little bit better than we're on the La Chargers
right now. But man, we totally could be stepping in
it because we're circumstantially betting the same scenario that we

(13:09):
bet two weeks ago when the Chargers were going across
the country and playing a team that is significantly worse
on the East Coast where they're short run favorites.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
Yeah. Once again, if you think back to that game,
think of all the things that had to go wrong
for you not to cover that number. So it's like,
from what I heard and look at this, it's probably
just the fact again it's too at home, so like
when you really dive into it too at home, it's
just different. And this is tends to be the spot
that professionals do back because he does win and play

(13:41):
really well at home. But I thought this was really
about the travel, and maybe because people are like, well,
the Charger are so banged up, and it is a
brutal travel, right going from LA to Florida. But you know,
diving at Herbert's numbers, he's actually done pretty well in
this exact spot. He's thirteen and six against it against
the spread in his career when he goes and plays

(14:02):
in East Coast games, so you know he tends to
not get frazzled in that way. And early in the year,
so September and October in his career when he goes East,
he's twelve and six against the spread, so he's done
well traveling. I will say this, there are always some
damning stabs about Herbert, and it's like, again, non ball

(14:22):
knowers will put him in their top five, which is
like the laziest take ever put in Herbert in your
top five quarterbacks when you dive into how bad he's
been in these one score games. It is alarming. This
is a one score game line, Like, that's what this
number is. So you know, the last three seasons, the
Chargers of the team one in ten when it's a
one score game. This year they're one on one, which

(14:45):
is good. But last year, so twenty twenty three and
twenty twenty four, Herbert was oh and nine Herbert oh
and nine straight up in one score games. That's as
a quarterback. That's a damn stat. That's you like, you
can try, people can put blame and always make up excuses,
but it like that just shows at the end of
these games. If he's not blowing these teams out, we're

(15:06):
dead on this bet. That's the fear chat. So I'm
still on it. I still like this spot. I think defensively,
this is a great bounce back spot for this Chargers
team matchup wise, and we said the worry for us
with the Chargers team is how they're going to handle
a team with a good pass rush. Miami doesn't have that,
and they don't have a good secondary either, which I
think we're We're able to pass the ball and even
without his running backs, something about to push the ball downfield.

(15:29):
So I'm with you like this because we're just so
uch dog betters and we always looking for opportunities to
be at home dogs. But this one, to me just
feels like a little of too much of adjustment by
the books. Still think this number would be five and
a half six. They've downgraded this team way too much,
in my opinion. Is so I do think it's a

(15:50):
nice bilo spot in the Chargers team. And like we said,
the fact that all this professional money is coming on
Miami and it looks like public money, like you're looking
at the splits at a lot different website. I don't know,
it makes me feel pretty good that we're on the
side that no one loves in this Chargers team, which
just going back just two weeks ago, they were the
best team in football. So I don't know, it's hard

(16:11):
for me to get out of this one check because
I just I like the number a lone. I love
this matchup for this Chargers team. They usually dominate beat
up on bad teams, and I just think that Giants
game was a one off, just so much bad luck,
and you saw last week once again a ton of
bad luck against Washington. Too much a reaction to them
getting blown out twenty seven to ten. Like we said,
that number is just not true. We both watched that

(16:31):
game from start to finish. That score does not indicate
what that game was.

Speaker 1 (16:36):
Great matchup for the Chargers. The reasons why it's different
than going into New York against the desperate Giants team
is number one. Two, it doesn't scramble the way Jackson
Dart does and that was a huge factor in that game.
Number Two, the Dolphins have no choice but to play

(16:56):
zone in coverage. Justin Herbert eats up zone coverage. Number three.
Their secondary, in addition to having to play zone twenty
seventh and average depth of target allowed more than nine
yards per play and average depth of target twenty fifth
in yards per attempt allowed, their bottom five in just

(17:19):
about every coverage category. Meanwhile, Miami, we talked about the
Chargers O line and struggling against pass rush. The Dolphins'
defensive line is twenty eighth in pressure defense, total is
twenty eighth in pressure rate and bottom ten in total pressure.
So the things that have been challenging for the Chargers

(17:46):
are not necessarily if you look at the numbers. Challenges
in this game, different teams, different situation, if you're saying
he's zero to nine one score games. The other day
you brought up betting the aut lines on a couple
of games. Maybe we should just take a piece of

(18:06):
the outline on this and like see if we're going,
you know, Chargers minus eight and get it over one score.

Speaker 2 (18:13):
It's more like, if this is if they're up fourteen
to fourth, I'll feel confident. If we're up ten in
the fourth, our bet is we're dead. We're dead dead.
So that that's like really what I was bringing up.
It's just like we, like you said, you gotta have
them roll. I don't. I love the all lines in
this I'm with you on it. So I'm on the
all lines in this game. But it's just we need,
we need the Chargers to roll, bounce back massively in

(18:34):
this game, because it's that's what I like. All the
pros telling me why they like Miami, they were just
like this has back door written all over and it's
like I looked at those numbers, I go, maybe they're right.
Maybe they're right about the Chargers not closing these teams out,
But historically just feels like the type of team the
Chargers absolutely.

Speaker 1 (18:50):
Roll Seattle Jacksonville. Jacksonville is a one and a half
point favorite. You say the wise guys are on the Jacks.
I don't know that we'll make this into our contest,
but it was a hot topic on Tuesday, you know,
justin Julian Love, Devin Witherspoon, DeMarcus Lawrence all misspractice again
on Wednesday. I'm trying to figure out where the love
is for the Jags. Trevor Lawrence, we know is a liability.

(19:15):
This defense, as good as they've been enforcing turnovers, there
there's going to be some regression here. Sam Donold has
been amazing so far this season. This Seahawks defense can
be as good as the Jaguars defense. I don't love
betting the short number anyways. I'm just trying to figure
out where the love. Like, why there is so much

(19:37):
professional love for the Jacks. There shouldn't be that much
professional love. It should be it should be more of
a debate.

Speaker 2 (19:45):
Yeah, I would say this Jacks team is healthier than
Seattle and that's all that's I mean, there are other
things too like this, This Jacks team probably still being
a little underrated the market. People are really love the
Seahawks team now because Sam Darnold had an incredible game
against that Bucks team last week, so I get the

(20:07):
confidence now. But you know, even the trends you look
at it the Seahawks. The reason I like the Bucks
so which last week is whatever it is McDonald as
a coach, he's bad at home, but on the road
they've been dominant when he's taken over his tenure there.
I think he's twelve and six against the spread on
the road in his young career and just shows he
gets his team up, he gets his defense up for

(20:27):
these matchups on the road, which is huge, huge deal.
And I'm not shocked. This is professional side, honestly, the
jack side, because the public will be looking at this
Seaxs team, Like I said, that was probably the best
game of the week last week. Like everyone watched that
Seahawks Bucks game, and they didn't think they lost that game, right,
They think the Bucks won it. They got Baker, so

(20:50):
they pretty much are crediting this team with a win.
On the flip side of the Jags, like we said,
we feel very lucky that we had that cover in
the win, knowing like you don't want to do it either.
No one wants put their money back on Trevor Lawrences experience.
So I think that's part of it where it's like
you're getting a unique situation where people just don't want
to bet this team. They're undervaluid even though they're healthy,

(21:10):
and you see it every week. As bad as Trevor
Lwrence has been, the defense has been getting better, and
that run game is a legit threat, Like the Jags
can run the ball, Like I couldn't believe that he
had success against Bags because my view of that whole
game with Stags is going to take away the run
and make Trevor beat them, and it almost worked right,

(21:31):
Like if they without that pick six, that's once again
a totally different game. So I'm with you, like I'm
scared to do it, but it's like I feel like
it's the right side. I'm trying not everthink it. Take
the Jags take the number. This Seahawks team, like we
loved early in the year. They'll get back to that
once they get right and get healthy. I just think
this is this is too much ask for a defense

(21:53):
is missing so many key pieces that you know they
still haven't hit that yet, Like the Jags have not
hit their stride det with Trevis Hunter and BTJ and
that you know, passing attack. So we'll see, like I
get it, like you, you don't want to do it,
I'm not gonna. I'm probably gonna force it in on Sunday.
I just think it's really funny when all the pros
like you have to bet this, and even though I'm like,

(22:13):
fucking I don't want to bet the Jags again, so
that I probably should be on it. But it's like
I'm with you. I feel like I survived something on Monday,
and I don't know if I want to go right
back to it.

Speaker 1 (22:23):
It's like we just got away with something we shouldn't.
You know, we shouldn't.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
We shouldn't, but it's true.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
Uh, Cleveland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is now five and a half.
We talked about it the other day. You called it
you're lazy as bet of the week. Listen if you were,
if folks were listening on Tuesday and paying attention, you
could have had the Steelers of minus four. So it's
moved up a point and a half. I mean five
to five, five to six is still pretty much a
dead number. I wouldn't tell people you'd be crazy to

(22:53):
bet it. At five and a half. But if one
of the philosophies of betting is you got to get
the best of the number, you're not getting them. That's
the number since this thing was at four on Tuesday.
I like it for the spot. I like it because
the Browns are coming back from the UK, a rookie
playing in his first road game. It's a difficult place
to play. You've got Alex high Smith coming back, You've

(23:16):
got Cam Hayward, TJ. Watt already there. Alex Heigsmith being
healthy to me is a game changer. Plus Joey Porter
Junior like this Steelers team is rested, and the greatest
advantage the Browns have is their defensive line and their
pass rush. Aaron Rodgers is getting the ball, getting rid

(23:39):
of the ball two point five to two seconds fastest
in the NFL. So if there's one thing that can
mitigate a powerful pass rush from your defensive line, it's
Aaron Rodgers, who knows how to get rid of the
ball quickly, and as you noted, takes a dive. So
I'm more and more comfortable with the Steelers here.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
Yeah, And I was trying to find anything I can
that gave me more confidences to this thing because everything
we said is true. I feel like on the field
and I really wanted to dive into the trends here
and like shout out to our guy Evan Abrams just
he had the exec tren that I was looking for,
which is I feel like this is a Tomlin spot
that we historically bet. And that's why I was like,
is this just being lazy? But it's an early bye

(24:20):
week for a coach that we see just he doesn't
have that bye week letdown, Like that's the real thing
of football. Guys just aren't up for that game after
the bye week. Again, I was grasping at straws. I
was like, I don't even know if this is real.
I need to find some numbers that back it up.
And it is real. So when he has a bye week,
Basically he's won and covered five straight Tomlin since twenty twenty.

(24:42):
You could say that's not that big of deal, but
to me, it is. He's eight to zero since twenty
seventeen sixty two against the spread. That's that's a big
deal to me, Like this is a guy that gets
his team up ready for these type of matchups, let
alone they're about to play a rookie quarterback coming off
an international game, right y'all game to day, you ain't
new to this no more. Now you know what I mean,
dominate this football game, and you can go even more

(25:03):
into it. It's like, Okay, how's he do early in
the year because that again, this is a very early
bye week. So when I have an early bye week
under Tomlin in his career, he's nine and one straight up,
seven to three against the spread. So when it's within
the first eight games of the year he is on one,
rate goes up even more. He's nine to one. So
a lot of that stuff I really like. I already

(25:26):
liked it when I saw those type of trends. It's like, okay,
now this is an It was already gonna be in
our money line run robin for favorites. Now it's a
no brainer smash spot for Tomlin. Like this is a
Tomlin spot after a bye week, And like Chad said,
I just tint to go so lazy because it's like,
who's betting Cleveland's side? And I could not believe it
had gotten down before. And you know, we try to

(25:48):
make sense of it. What are these pros doing? And
I always talk about you have to be wary of
the professional headfake where they'll bet a line to get
to a number day one and they'll load up on
that side. And that's what I feel like. Chad's talking
about what happened. Like a lot of fours were popped
up across the books all jumped up to five five
and a half after a lot of money came in.
So I still like it at five and a half.

(26:09):
I still think it's a fair number under six. I
just again, their running attack is so good at Cleveland.
That might be my only fear like because you can
run the ball against this Pittsburgh team. But I have
to trust Tomlin to make adjustments during this bio week
and then they getting these guys back healthy. It's like,
what is Tomlin do in this by week? Yes, to
attack their biggest weakness, which is the run. Anyone has

(26:31):
these numbers, they can see they've been awful. I guess
they run through the first four weeks. So yeah, Ched,
I'm really happy to see he's done so well after
these bio weeks, and the trends back up our love
for this Pittsburgh side because I'm not gonna lie. There's
a couple of games this week, Like we keep talking
with these favorites, like the Chargers. That's like these lines
just feel off and they're priced wrong because last week

(26:52):
the Dogs had their week, right, what were they nine
to five? Yeah? Yeah, I get straight up something crazy
like that. So there's a couple of lines that pop
like this, right, I can't believe I'm on a talk
favorite like this once again. But it's like it's just
an undervalued lion. It's still to me undervaluided. Probably should
be six, six and a half. I don't think a
five and a half is a trial number if you didn't.

Speaker 1 (27:09):
Miss the four Simon, this is us growing, this is
us for this week evolving in the marketplace. We're not
just going to blindly bet underdogs with good defenses. We're
going to take a look at favorites every once in
a while because that's what the market dictates. You can't
just bet whatever you used to bet. This This thing

(27:31):
is changing dramatically before our eyes. All right, Pittsburgh Steelers,
the game that cause the biggest riff you and I
have ever had the history of the podcast. The New
England Patriots three point favorites at the New Orleans Saints.

(27:52):
This was your Simon says. When I disagreed and pushed back,
you got very mad. But I do realize that I
listen back. We did this right after revisiting the Cardinals
debacle from Sunday, and then we played your rant about
the Cardinals from Sunday, So I think you might have
been triggered.

Speaker 2 (28:13):
Kyler Murray's a loser. Gannon's a loser. That's a loser. Organization.
Fold don't exist anymore tomorrow. I hope I wake up
tomorrow and they said, yep, thirty one teams NFL Arizona
literally folded overnight. Good let it be done.

Speaker 1 (28:29):
At hard Rock. The line has shifted. The Saints are
a flat three a lot of other places, that's still
three and a half. Clearly the wise guys, as you
noted in sharp calls, are on the Saints. Here. I'm
a little more trepidacious. Like everyone keeps saying the Saints
are better. I think people are undervaluing the impact of

(28:50):
Christian Gonzales on the return for the Patriots. I get
it's like it's not going to be a good side.
It's inflated against the Patriots because of what they did
against the bills. Everyone's talking about Drake Mays MVP, basically
because there's no one left to talk about, right Like,
you can't talk about Patrick Mahomes, you can't talk about
Lamar Jackson, you can't talk about Josh Allen. This week, Hey,

(29:11):
let's talk about Drake May and So I totally totally
get it. I just don't know about these Saints.

Speaker 2 (29:19):
Yeah, I left the record show. I wasn't mad, I
was annoyed. Listen, we're humans. We all have many flaws.
I have many flaws, and I am a crazy person.
Chad has many blind spots, and that's that's all. We
all have blind spots. So peek behind the curtain. Chad
asked me for my favorite bet this week before the show. Again,
we're not live, this is only me and Chad. I
tell him I'm on the Saints. Chad could have just

(29:42):
simply said, oh, I like the Patriots. Chats go in
a minute rant about why the features are the right side,
how he makes the number five or five and a half,
and I'm just like this guy. As soon as you
get on the air, I'm going to bear you. Steve,
you can't read the room. I'm a guy. He thinks
it's there. The other thing, dude, I'm a dire Phillies fan.

(30:03):
I'm staring at zero and two and I forgot that,
And I'm just like, does this guy really doing this
before the show? Because again, if it's on air, check
and talk for five minutes about the Patriots. I don't care.
That's for you people. He's given me his own private
show of something I do not want to hear after
being up doing fourteen games. So that's why I was

(30:24):
just like annoyed. I don't know if I was mad.
I was more annoyed, but yeah, I'm still in the
Saints and it like my view of it was to
get the number before it moved, because I was just like, Okay,
the public will be on the Patriots here. Will the
pros join me on the Saint side? Will they bet
this down to three? I feel like our Rocks only
won that move, Like if you want the three and
a half, there are so many out there, and yeah,

(30:45):
I think I'll get back there. Like I I talked
to prose who are on the Patriots side, and yeah,
Christian Zalaz is a big deal. I don't think they
realized that this Saints team is still better than people perceive.
And you know, even the numbers set, this team's actually
not as bad. Like defensively, I was shocked because that's
what I want to look into. It's like, Okay, their defense. Yeah,

(31:06):
they've had a soft schedule in some aspects, but they've
actually played well. Like that that Bill's game, they didn't
just lay down and die like they stopped the run.
I feel like they were pretty solid in that game.
And you look at it, their ninth and EPA a
game against their run. So they're holding you know, in
four out of the five games they played this year,
they've held the number one running back to under seventy yards. Okay,

(31:26):
that's that's something to improven on, right Their their run
defense is actually getting stops. That's something I can hang
my head on. The Spencer Rattler part, though, is the
part I can't get over. I can't get over how
good this kid's playing for someone that I totally viewed
as a joke. I was like, they're making the quarterbacks
so they can tank and get a quarterback this season,
and you look at the numbers and it's it's good.

(31:48):
And like even when Christian Zalas takes out the number
one of a team that is a big deal, but
they haven't really like Alive, who we all respect. He
was incredible at how to state he's he is their
number one, but he's not their focal point of their offense.
He's not a guy at four speed in a lot
of ways. And you look at Spencer rallery numbers. So
he has six touchdowns and one interception this season. So

(32:11):
in the Saints' history, this is crazy. They've never had
a quarterback or they've had two quarterbacks through five games
throw for six touchdowns, one interception and throw for over
seventy percent. That was Drew Brees in twenty eighteen. So
Spencer Ratler, Drew.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
Brees and Spencer Rattler and yeah.

Speaker 2 (32:29):
Twenty twenty five. So those are the two quarterbacks on
that list in Saint's history that have probably that well
to start a year. So it's like I got to
give him his roses. Kellen Moore, which, like again I
didn't think it was a huge loss for the Eagles
for him to leave. He obviously is a pretty gifted
coach if he's turning that out with Spencer Ratler and
the team they have, Like I just I looked at

(32:49):
those numbers, I couldn't believe it, like the fact that
he's being smart with the ball in his hand like that,
because him being six touchdowns and one pick, I agree
with people that's not jumping out of like that's not amazing.
That's not a roll Bowl numbers. But he's playing within
the offense and he's not the reason this team is losing,
like they have losses on the shaw and you can't
point to him, like, sure there's been times he misthrows,
but it's like, once again, expectations for this team. So

(33:12):
I still think the general public doesn't realize this defense
is actually all right for the Saints, and Spencer Rally's
playing at a same high level that Drake May's playing
right now. And my only pause here is when you
dive into the numbers, this is once again another verbel spot.
Rabel does very well against bad teams, let alone teams
with first or second year head coaches. So there are

(33:35):
trends that are like I know pros who bet trends,
and that's there are trends they like that face to
this Patriots team. So I just want people know this
isn't all professional. I thought this was going to be
all pro on this same side. There are some that
are back in Rabel in this spot. But like I
told him, I'll tell you, if you like the Patriots,
you can get minus three right now. That's that's a

(33:56):
Patriots number right there. To me, the Saints number, though,
which is every book most likely in your state, is
three and a half. That to me is the confidence
smart side the Patriots can win, they can cover this number.
That's like a thirty thirty five percent chance. Like you're
betting into a really bad spot side at a bad number,
this Saints team. I could be over my skis here

(34:18):
back in the two weeks in a row. But it's
just about the number. Just like last week, I thought
that numbers should have been closer to three. It wasn't right.
I mean, I think it peaked at two and a half.
Same thing here. I think this number should be close
to a pick. You're getting a hook on three and
a half. I'm never gonna avoid this one. I like
the Saints cheat. I like this matchup for the team
and their defense.

Speaker 1 (34:36):
I always forget how emotionally invested you are in the
Philadelphia Phillies.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
Yeah, I love them, man. Like again, I'm it's Eagle season,
but I'm still it's still in my mind Philly season.
Like if the Eagles were two and three, yeah it
would suck, but it's like they're season to start till
December anyway. This is yeah going down oh two at
home chat, I was I was hurting. I was hurting Tuesday.
Not gonna lie. Thank God for last night, Schward man,

(35:04):
I needed it.

Speaker 1 (35:05):
Starters have been a major story.

Speaker 2 (35:07):
Oh Schwarver, gonna send one way out of here? How
far will it fly? My goodness, Kyle Schwarver with a
tape measure shot that is one of the biggest bombs
you will ever see.

Speaker 1 (35:22):
He was a season saver last night. Yeah, we'll see
what happens today. But yeah, all right, so clearly you
love the Saints. Here. Part of me just wants to
bet the Patriots at minus three and then and then
put him in the contest and just see what happens
and let it roll.

Speaker 2 (35:43):
Put the Patriots in and minus three.

Speaker 1 (35:45):
No, put the Saints in. Oh, oh, I will I'd
be willing. I'd be willing to sacrifice the bet and
put the Saints in just to see how this whole
thing plays out. Though today's show is brought to you
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(37:58):
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia, Tennessee. At the Las
Vegas Raiders, All right, look, I made a chat choice
on Tuesday. It's down half a point since I made it.
Chat choice brock Bauers did not practic yesterday. Not great,

(38:18):
not great, Jim, But this should be about the Raiders.
Letting Ashtrion Genty repeat the performance he had against the Bears. Right,
the Titans are thirty first in run DVA twenty eighth
and EPA per rush twenty ninth in success rate against
the rush. Like Chip Kelly, don't get freaking cute, man,

(38:39):
don't put the ball in Gino's hands, don't try to
do anything special. Just give it to Genty, let him
score his touchdowns, let him beat up on a Titans
team that really should not be even on the same
field as any NFL team. I know I'm exaggerating because
it's the Raiders, and really the Raiders are trash, but
they do have offensive weapons and if they can just

(39:01):
put them in the right hands, they should be able
to win this game and win this game by margin.
So I'm still in the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (39:10):
Still in Raiders, and the professionals are coming on in
Tennessee's like again, what is that about? They don't always win,
So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You
can find minus three and a half. And I don't
care for the Socckers here I saw the best laziest
stat of the week, which was there's been three rookie
qbs come back down seventeen points in NFL history. They

(39:32):
all lost the final game by like twenty points.

Speaker 1 (39:35):
So yeah, you know why they're playing for bad teams.
And like this Titans team, what is this line, Honest
to god, what is this line if the if the
Titans lose that game twenty eight to six against.

Speaker 2 (39:50):
The car the Rangers so bad. I don't think across
the six. I think a peak would get up to
minus six, right, But.

Speaker 1 (39:55):
So then to me, we're still getting two points of value.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
But to me, that's just a glaring statuo of just
how these young quarterbacks they can have that moment, that
come back thing. But Chad just nailed it. They're on
really bad teams and that most usually don't know how
to handle winning. So like you have this insanely high
emotional win on the road, you fly home, vibes are

(40:20):
the highest of high. Now you're flying again to Vegas
to go play this matchup against a Raiders team that
is veteran across the board and insanely desperate. Like Pete Carroll,
if he gets fired, he might be end up being
our next president. What is he seventy five? He's right
around the perfect age. So it's it's it's scary like
we're both in the same boat of like holding our
nose taking this side, and we know exactly what we're

(40:42):
doing here with this Raiders team that the only thing
I could burns is Gino because Jeni, he should rush
for one fifty year like you just avoid Simmons in
the middle. You can run for whatever you want against
this team, and you look on the flip side, like
we talked the same reason we loved the Raiders are
against the Bears, Max Crosby against bad old lines when

(41:03):
he can pick the guy he can go against. Oh
my god, right, it's like it's not even fair, and
I love to you see. You know all these teams
reaching out to try to get him off the Raiders.
If the Raiders were a smart organization, you should move
him on. You should let this reward, this man who's
so great, get three first whatever you can get from him,
and let him move on to go win a championship,
because it is you watch him every Sunday. He's just

(41:24):
the best, and it's such a waste here over the Raiders.
But we still got him here and we still have
a great match with him, So I know, Chaed, I
can't believe the amount of professional money that have moved
this number down, especially that you know we got four
here at hard Rock the Minas three and a half.
It's just egregious to me.

Speaker 1 (41:39):
It's stupid.

Speaker 2 (41:40):
Yeah, shop around, get that number if you can. I
just I can't believe people and professionals alike are overacting
this much to a Tennessee win, which they view is
something that can kind of spark this team. Historical data
shows this is not that moment. This is usually when
they fall off a cliff the following game.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Also, historical data tells you that when you're betting a
home team after a blowout, there's also going to be
deflation in the line, and that's when you want to
bet on that team. So, like if we talk about
by low and sell high, like this is when you
sell the Titans, and this is when you buy the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (42:14):
You hope on the Raiders part, we don't know if
this is rock bottom yet because we.

Speaker 1 (42:18):
Assume we assume Caleb Williams called Max Crosby the best
football player he's ever played against.

Speaker 2 (42:24):
That's fairy. I'll tell you that, all right, H'donald So
I get it?

Speaker 1 (42:28):
Yeah right? San Francisco at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay minus three.
We talked about this and sheriff calls. I want to
spend a minute on it because like Brock Purdy, Juwan Jennings,
Ricky Piersoll, again, none of them practiced on Wednesday. Also,
even scarier Mac Jones was limited.

Speaker 2 (42:44):
So like, what is happening?

Speaker 1 (42:47):
Why is the entire wise guy community forget about coming
in on tennessee? Why the Niners? What is happening here?
To me, this is solely about fade the box and
just thinking they can't continue to win every game by
a field goal in the final seconds, literally the final seconds.

(43:09):
I agree that that's the only reason. And maybe there's
some other injuries for the Bucks in the defensive backfield,
But if mac Jones, who's already limited physically, is now
limited because of injuries and he's your quarterback, I don't know, man, Like,
what what are people seeing here?

Speaker 2 (43:28):
Bizarre? And I was so excited too. I was like,
oh my god, they're gonna give us two and a
half in our contest and we can We'll get the
Bucks here, they'll announce parties out and Max playing and
maybe this line will run up to four four and
a half. We have an amazing number. It's three and
a half. So it's like I'm no forging having our
contest either, which sucks. Yeah, which could be good for
me though, because I probably should avoid this Bucks team

(43:48):
because there's something I'm not seeing here. I mean, I
have a total blind spot, and I think what you
said is part of it where it's like Baker's hit
on black now nine straight times, and he's gonna go
hit it again. Like I loved his interview this week.
I think he's talking about how like guys will say
he has moxie now or before he was just a
cocky ass.

Speaker 1 (44:07):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Right, that's what winning does, where it's like, yeah, Baker,
that's part of it, But there's also part of it.
You were kind of a douche and now like you
do have the cool maxy of like you know, you're
not some young kid, You're a growing ass man person.
Dude's out in the stands. I kind of love it,
But then when you were twenty two, it just looked
it felt weird, So I don't know, I'm too close
to it, I think, And I'm just in love with
this team and I've obviously bet into this, like I'm

(44:29):
all in on this three it's like and I've got
guys telling me not to do it, and it's like
I got to touch the hot stove. I can't help
it here. This is the number doesn't make sense because
once again it pretty is out. There are number one
and number two receivers are out again. You're you're betting
on lightning striking twice with this this Fort and Iris team.
Like what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flucish. Yeah,

(44:50):
the Viners covering it.

Speaker 1 (44:51):
The Miners didn't win that game, right, The Rams lost
that game.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
And even the cover where it's like you're betting on
Mac Jones again to be twenty of twenty three passing
and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like,
I just feel like the ask is way too big
if you're back in the four Irish team. So, like
I said, people can be careful here. There's clearly I
clearly have a blind spot here. I maybe talked to
two other really smart groups that are on this buck side,

(45:16):
but they're like me, they're scratch ahead is a little
bit and like, I don't know, we are we idiot here,
Like this feels like a gift getting minus through in
a Bucks team that with all their injuries they do
have in their secondary, there's ways to combat that with
the style of defense they play. I know it didn't
show up obviously gets the Seahawks, but I don't know.
Once Like I said, I just I think it's a

(45:36):
big difference. Betweam Sam Darnold and a healthy receiving core
the Seahawks had in Mac Jones here with a banged
up forty nine ers team, so very very unique game.
I'm excited to talking about it more on Sunday because
we'll have a lot more info, Like right now, we
just don't know where I'm going off right now, what
I know, which is pretty hasn't practiced in two days.
The wide receivers haven't practicing two days. If they practice today,

(45:56):
which they need to do most likely to play in
this game, we will have more info and this number
could easily drop the Bucks two and a half, and
then I'll talk more about the composition on that on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (46:08):
I'm excited for Sunday because I feel like we're already
We've got like five teams right now that I think
five games that we feel will be in contention. The
Bucks are one of them, and we've got more to come.

Speaker 2 (46:26):
Can I talk the Colts game? I don't know if
you have that on your thing, just two seconds on
the Colts.

Speaker 1 (46:30):
I didn't put it on the list because the numbers
move so much. The numbers now it's seven, So Colts
are minus seven, you know against the Cardinals. Just to
set it up, they were five or five and a
half when we talked about it on Sunday. I bet
into the Colts when that number was lower. I haven't
brought it up because the numbers move so much.

Speaker 2 (46:50):
So go ahead. Yeah, it is at minus seven minus
one fifteen now at hard Rock. So, like Chad said,
I think that's based off the Keller Murray news, right,
he's not practice, Like we said, That's why I wanted
to be on this number early. Yeah, because it's like, Okay,
he could have I know it sounds stupid. He could
have got a concussion from that snap of the football,
or he really does have a foot injury. We don't know,
but we do know is she's not practicing and that's

(47:13):
a big deal. And I wanted to look at what
are the trends of teams like the Cardinals that are
in this unique spot that they lost three straight games
on a last field a last second field goal. Like
to me, that's something that always jumps out to me,
where it's like they're argument numbers, the backup and trends
the backup teams that are in this spot because they

(47:34):
are humans. And like I say, all the time, history
does repeat itself with humans, you can't the game may change,
the personalities may change. At its core, it's still people
living in real lives that are affected by wins and losses.
And you dive into this one. Since twenty thirteen, teams
that have lost three straight by three points or less,
they're one in eight and they're following game straight up

(47:56):
two and seven against the spread. So again, this number people.
I still think it's worth grabbing the seven if you can,
just in case it is Brissette, this will instantly jump
to seven and a half and then if you hadn't
missed it, Yes, you can talk yourself into taking the Cardinals.
But I still think this is a cold signe. Like
we talkt Coults are a big is shit, They're a
big offensive line wise, defensive line wise, and I just

(48:20):
matchup wise. If I was going to be on Kyler,
it's like, okay, this is a Kyler game because he
is a dog. On the road always tends to be
much better than at home as a favorite, just historically
against the spread. But when I saw that trend, it
feels real to me that teams have hit their low
point and then you have to add in now the
time is something to do with trends. We have a
coach getting into physical altercations with players on the sideline

(48:43):
and having a talk in front of the team and
pay a hundred K fine, and almost players they'd be like, yeah,
it's cool, we forgive coach. We're moving on, when you
know in the back of their mind they're like, fuck
this guy. I cannot wait to be to be fired,
Like on everythinging ierber Meyer, this is the kicker. Ierber
Meyer kicked the kid.

Speaker 1 (48:57):
Yeah, lost the whole team.

Speaker 2 (48:59):
Lost the whole team. So they can say what they
want on camera, play it good. I mean, I just
felt like that was like, you know, again, they don't
have an owner of that team, or they would have
fired the coach after that incident. It's just you have
to do something there. So yeah, I just wanted to
bring that up because I saw that trend now I
was like, oh my god, this is exactly what I thought.

(49:20):
This is why I wanted to be on the Colts early.
And yeah, my hate was right earlier early in the
Sunday the five to five and a half was the
right read. And we'll be interesting if Kyler does get cleared,
if this does drop below seven, I think this is
what the line will be. Regardless if Kyler gets clear
to come back, I just don't see dipping below seven again.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
Cincinnati at green Bay. I just want to touch on
it for a second because after we talked about liking
Green Bay on Tuesday. We won't put this in the contest,
but as soon as maybe right as soon as we
were done recording on Tuesday, the pack the Bengals traded
for Joe Flacco and Zach Taylor's announced that he we

(50:00):
will be starting, and the line moved to fourteen and
a half. Yeah, so I bet the Packers at fourteen
for a little taste, not too much, but I don't
think anything changes for me. Is Joe Flacco going to
be better at getting the ball to Jamar Chase. More importantly,

(50:21):
is Joe Flacco going to play middle linebacker and stop
Josh Jacobs from running after ten days of Matt Lafleur
just being so mad that his running game isn't doing anything.
So this Bengals team isn't going to be saved by
Joe Flacco walking through that door.

Speaker 2 (50:36):
No, but it is shocking a lot of trends do
love the Bengals, but it's like this computer doesn't understand
what this team is now. I don't care what's happened
in the last thirty years. This is you have to
play this exact spot. This is very unique, and there's
actually some good trends to that point to Lafleur after
bie weeks playing against very bad teams, especially early bye

(50:57):
weeks in the near where talking at the time, it's
a big deal. You're healthy, rusted against a team that
they've just been running through it for five straight weeks
now and now they're on the road again as a
double digit dog, and the Flacco trade just bizarro world.
I don't know if they look at those circle data,
but you're grabbing a quarterback that needs protection, and now

(51:18):
he's going from mid tier maybe bottom twenty protection in
the Browns to the bottom thirty two, number thirty one
and past blocking. So Nightmary, Nightmary, nightmare scenario. I mean
as a hater, as a fan, I mean, it would
be the greatest thing ever Joe Flacco beats the Green
Bay Packers twice on to bottom five teams in the NFL.

(51:40):
It would be legendary. But this isn't a fairy tale.
This isn't a made up world. This Bengals team is
so much worse than that Browns team, and which is
crazy to think and say, because I know the books
don't reflect that. Right, they still have the Bengals A
is a better favorite to win this division in this
Browns team. But my model just hates this Bengals team.
And I have this at fifteen and a half, so

(52:01):
I'm still all green Bay. But my god, my god,
I can't believe this is how bad it is for
the Spangals team, that this number is what it is,
and against a bank a Green Bay team that I
want to say, they're not warranted to be this big
of a favorite, Like they have their own issues, right,
They got injuries they're not in rhythm offensively, but that

(52:22):
just shows how bad this Spangals team. They should they
should just absolute get rolled here by Green Bay.

Speaker 1 (52:28):
All right. I want to get to the primetime games
because we actually liked all of them and we had
a good conversation. I think the most challenging one is
Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City, you can get it
at two at hard Rock. It's a two and a
half in a lot of places. We were wondering why
this line was moving towards the Chiefs when something like

(52:51):
eighty percent of the bets were on the Lions. It
told us that the wise guys really liked the Chiefs.
Told us the books were taking a stand on the Chiefs.
We do know at this point Terry and Arnold cornerback,
Taylor Decker, tackle, Khalif Raymond receiver, Kirby Joseph safety, Aman
Ross Saint Brown wide receiver for the Lions. They all

(53:13):
missed practice on Wednesday, so there are a lot of injuries,
a lot of people playing through through pain that normally
they would be able to do, but it's so bad
they can't even practice this week. That will probably have
an impact on the game. I don't know that. That's
why the line is moving, because it kind of started
moving before that. It just feels like people are still

(53:34):
underestimating the Chiefs. They're overestimating the Lions. Like the Chiefs
offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going
to be. The Lions offense. They're going on grass a
little banged up. I don't mind being on the Chiefs here.
I kind of like it. I've bet the Chiefs and
minus two.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
Yeah, honestly, I do mind. I feel sick to my
stomach because I was just trying to find a reason
to be und Detroit and I just haven't. I'm the
Chiefs with Chad. I probably we'll talk, so it might
end up in our contest, but it's.

Speaker 1 (54:04):
Like I think it will. I think it's going to
be the Rock and the Hard Place, and I think
we're going to convince ourselves.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
We probably will. I just I can't get over how
much love there is professionally to this chief side. And
you know, I run through all the trends. I mean,
we know a lot of fans of the show know
him because we love getting off this Mahomes one Mahomes
minus three or less. So if he's an underdog or
sure you know, less than a field goal twenty nine
to twelve and one in his career against the spread.

(54:32):
So like again, this is why me and Chad love
betting Mahomes. This's got spot. We've made a lot of
money over his entire career in sex spot. So his
opponent is coming off a win, I'm more than ten points.
So again, same thing. They had a huge win Detroit.
Now they're playing against Mahomes who's less than three points.

(54:52):
He's fifteen to four in his career in this exact
spot against the spread. All right, let's dive into even more. Mahomes.
When he's playing against team that's covering eighty percent through
five games, he's four and one against the spread three
and oh straight up winning by over nine points per game.
So when he's playing against Juggernauts, Mahomes in his career

(55:14):
showed up in this exact spot. So once again, I
want to paint a picture for why people are like
shure shocked. These pros are betting that. You the football
geeks and nerds already liked this spot for the Chiefs,
but then you have all these trends that keep showing
how of a spot. This is for this Chiefs team
and specifically a Mahomes. So Mahomes, you know he's faced

(55:36):
great offense in his career, right, this is a team
that's lines were scoring more than thirty points per game.
This sap in five times in his career. Mahomes, he's
five and oh straight up against those teams, winning those
games by a wast ten points. When he's you know,
in primetime, which this is a primetime game for Mahomes,
nineteen and six straight up in this exact spot, primetime
game at home, So can't avoid it. I wanted to

(56:00):
fine Reese's thelectus Detroit team. I think this is just
the classic case of they are very verrely talented offensively,
they have injuries to their defense. Can they out scheme
Spags here and you know, be a the juggernaut they are?
I don't know if they can. Like this just feels
like the type of game or Spag is gonna take

(56:20):
away whatever their strength is. That these other defense they played,
these are bad teams, and you saw a little bit
of the Browns. The Browns were taking away what they
want to do, which is run the ball and make
golf beat you. I think that's Spags is gonna do.
I mean, Chad, you said, I'm on s Brown. That's
a huge deal. If he's banged up in my misses game.
He is the safety valve of all safety valve for golf.

(56:41):
Like anytime they need a third down a crow route
or a slant and they let im on a round pick,
it's unguardable the man wins. It feels like every time
on third down it's just an auto play. And if
he doesn't win it, he's one yard short and a
fourth down they go for it anyway. So yeah, I
can't believe it. It's like Detroit as a dog here.
I can I believe. I'm not on that side, but

(57:02):
you gotta stick with us people. You got to take
the Chiefs here. This is the chief spot, a Chief's number.
Long term, we win this one. So again, it might
not work here. There's no guaranteed bet. There's one hundred
percent bet, but it's like you're playing the long term game.
You have to back Mahomes in this spot. He just
plays really well in these big moments when people don't
believe in them, let alone the general public. Like the

(57:24):
fact that it's still you know, seventy five percent of
the money and the tickets on this Detroit team. There's
one book that I've moved the Chiefs back to one
and a half. You could go grab. I just don't
know if the spread's gonna matter. Like the books you're
telling us, this ain't going to be under three, Like
this is going to be a field goal one more
game the Chiefs win here, So I don't know they're
gonna get there late win field goal by Mahomes, but

(57:45):
I love them to bounce back here after that loss
they had against the Jaguars, and once again we're playing
the number this is. This was three and a half then,
no matter what I had to be on Detroit, but
if it was three or less, I'm going to back
Mahomes this exact spot. Like we win against them here
early in the year, when the Eagles were a favorite
against the Chiefs, that was different. They were banged up
then they had a lot of pieces missing. I think

(58:07):
with Worthy back, you've seen their offense just take that
next step they needed with him there that he just
opens things up. So yeah, I really like this matchup
for the Chiefs offense against the defense of Detroit and defensively.
I think spagg is gonna get his best this Detroit team,
that he's gonna be able to slow it down. There's
no way they're gonna get more than thirty points. They're
not gonna be what they've been at home, which is
this indoor juggernaut. This is outdoors. Like Chad said on grass,

(58:29):
they're not cutting that grass this week. They're gonna water
before the game as well. It ain't gonna be that
turf like they're used to. So yeah, I'm people gonna
I'm starting to really fall in love this Chiefs. I'm
just trying to be patient here because I know anything
can happen in these steps of matchups with two great teams.

Speaker 1 (58:43):
Yeah, the way we're talking about it, belise how we
feel deep down about this game, which is real fear,
real trepidation. I think we're somewhat leaning into how the
books are telling us they think this game is going

(59:04):
to go, because they haven't moved it at all. I
thought by now the Chiefs would be an underdog. Like
on Sunday night, we started talking like this line's going
to move, it's going to be the Chiefs, and it hasn't.
It's going in the complete opposite direction. Even though all
of the money, all of the tickets I mean are
coming in on Detroit right now. It just tells you

(59:26):
that there's so much wise guy resistance on this Chiefs team.
So it took me until yesterday to bet it. I
betted it too, because as confident as we sound talking
about this game, it's still going to be a nightmare
to watch, and it's going to keep us up late,
and I bet it's going to be in our contest
because it's going to come down to this and the

(59:47):
Saints and the Box and we're going to be like,
oh my god, what are we going to do? Last game?
I want to talk about Chicago at washingingon this game
has moved down to four. It was at four and
a half. Our comments section lighting up on this one.

(01:00:10):
A lot of people loving the Commanders. I'm here for it.
So many people got opinions the Bears are the play.
I bet the Bears at four and a half. I
know you kind of feel the same way, but don't
love it. I don't see this getting into our contest
compared to the other ones that we have, But I
think the Commander is getting too much love for the

(01:00:33):
way they beat up on the Chargers and Jaden Daniel's
coming back and it's overinflating this line. It's Tyreek Stevenson's
redemption game.

Speaker 2 (01:00:43):
Yeah, it's just another game. I feel like I have
a total blind spot too, because it's way off my
model number, which again meaning what meaning I have this
at three? Like, yeah, why are we not hammering the
Bears plus four and a half And that's my fear
where it's like I always say, they're not here to
give away free one of these sportsbooks, and that's just

(01:01:05):
a very bizarre number where everyone's in agreeance with the
chat like who That's why I couldn't believe there's so
many professionals that like this Commander side. It's like what
do you like? Like, what is the matchup here that
makes them a four and a half point favorite over
this Bears team? I just I can't find it, And
it feels like people are grasping at straws to try
to make it sound as if it is a good number,
where it's like you're just playing the number because you

(01:01:27):
know it's what the book is gonna need. The book
is gonna need the Commanders here. The public dog is
going to be this Bears team, I have no doubt
about it. But it's like I think the public is right.
I think this is too inflated. I can't find trends
that point to love in this Washington team. You know,
the the Bears. Yes, they're not as good. I guess

(01:01:51):
you could say as commanders here we are through five weeks,
but like I view them, is not that different of teams,
Like skill wise, you know, Jane Daniels had incredible seas
last year. I still told you I still have Caleb
as like basically the same guy. I still think he's
greated just as high, and through five weeks, I think
he's played really well in.

Speaker 1 (01:02:09):
This offense, so he's played amazing.

Speaker 2 (01:02:13):
So I just fon't out to deal with this one.
It's like I want to be on the Bears, but
fifteen years of being a professional sports better just has
the alarms going off here of being like, man, this
is a weird line. There's I just I'm glad it
came down like seeing it now for like hard rock, yeah,
thank god, Like at least some professionals are joining us
on this Bear side. Because I tell you this, early

(01:02:34):
in the week, it was all commander's money. It was
all love for this commander's team. And I'm with Jet.
I just totally think people are box score watching that
Chargers game and they're just overrating this team. And like
Chad said, through a quarter and a half, Daniel was
look totally uncomfortable and didn't look right at that knee brace.
Now once he got in rhythm, yeah it's you saw
Jane Daniels, one of the more deably passers downfield. We

(01:02:56):
were done though, so to me, I'll be patient here,
Like if Gerry McLaurin gets cleared, if they're all good
to go offensively, they're fully healthy, Okay, maybe we won't
have this contest, but I think we've got a real
discussion Sunday if this is one of the one of
the five we want to get here because I do
like the number. I like the four and a half.
I bet the four and a half. My just weary
here is just what am I missing? This feels too

(01:03:18):
good to be true, just a bizarre number. Like again,
they would have got the same amount of action on
this Bear steam of three and a half and they
did a four and a half. I don't know why
they gave us a free point there. It's that's the
part I can't get over. It's just it's a dumb
line by the books, and the books don't make dumb
lines like that, Like they're not idiots. This is billion
dollar companies, so really really bizarre line. You can once again,

(01:03:39):
you can still get a four and a half. I
can't believe it, but you can still get it.

Speaker 1 (01:03:43):
It's on the list for Sunday, Simon.

Speaker 2 (01:03:45):
On the list.

Speaker 1 (01:03:46):
We got the Panthers, we got the Chargers, we got
the Steelers, we got the Saints, we got the Raiders,
the Bucks, the Chiefs, and the Bear So a healthy
number for Sunday. I think I'm looking at seven eight games. Yeah,
for Sunday, which is a good conversation. I think there's

(01:04:07):
four that we that we feel pretty good about, and
then it's going to be a rock and a hard
placed conversation for the rest. But I'm excited for it.
I'm here for it. A lot of favorites, a lot
of favorites.

Speaker 2 (01:04:18):
If you be one second, one second survivor green Bay
survivor green Bay.

Speaker 1 (01:04:23):
Well that's what I was going to say. Okay, great, Simon,
it's time for you to give us your biggest bets
of the week.

Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
Pull up those pants and be a man. I mean, ATS,
this week's give me a little tough, people, because I'm
kind of getting lazy this week because we did so
well ATS last week. I tend to just go with
easy favorites and pay pay them together. Like the Rams,
I love that number, but I'd rather just take their
money line and pair would say the Eagles or you know,

(01:04:55):
we just talked about we like the Vegas, we like
the Chargers. Like, there's a lot of teams I'm just
paying money lines with this week, So I would say
it's different than most weeks. If we're ATS my biggest bets.
I mean, I'm on Carolina three and a half on
the Saints three and a half, took positions on Pittsburgh.
Still would I guess the five and a half, But
obviously I feel much better when it was in the fours,

(01:05:17):
and I just know I'm gonna get there in the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are prebabing going to be one of my
bigger bets. So yeah, against the spread, those will probably
be my bigger ones.

Speaker 1 (01:05:24):
That's why I feel like the Chiefs will end up
being in the contest because we're both talking ourselves into
how confident we feel about this, which is a frightening,
frightening scenario. All right, let's do an a round robin
underdog parlay.

Speaker 2 (01:05:46):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mo dog.

Speaker 1 (01:05:51):
I would do Panthers, Yeah, I would do Saints. Yeah,
I would do Bears.

Speaker 2 (01:06:02):
Love it it. Gotta do Detroit just in case.

Speaker 1 (01:06:04):
Oh yeah, Detroit, Saints, Panthers Bears, Detroit. Who's our fifth?

Speaker 2 (01:06:18):
I mean, it's kind of boring, but let's let's thar
Seahawks and they're plus one plus one hundred right now,
that's what I thought.

Speaker 1 (01:06:24):
Okay, money line underdog round robin Saints, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks,
and Detroit our money line round robin favorite.

Speaker 2 (01:06:38):
Let's do six six this week because I have a
lot of favorite talk. I like to win out right.
Oh exciting Raiders, Raiders. If you hear this in time,
you're gonna throw the Eagles in there. I just don't
think enough people hear this. In Times Pittsburgh, we talked
about Tomlin nine and zero in this exact spot, or
nine and one straight up in this exact spot. Colts

(01:06:59):
love It, Rams McVeigh Stafford sixteen and oh as a
favorite of six points or more until last week, so
you expect to bounce back, right, So I had no
problem going off the Rams here against the Ravens on
the money line to thrown around Robin already gave out Vegas, right, Chad,

(01:07:23):
you said that one you can. I wouldn't do the
money line on Green Bay, but like the old line
six and a half, if you want take it down,
that's probably minus five hundred. I wouldn't mind throwing that
in as the sixth leg and the Chargers again, that's
why I want to do six seven legs this week.
I just one of these favorites. Sure they're gonna lose,

(01:07:43):
but I wouldn't be shocked all seven of these guys winning.
Like last week was really the week of the underdogs.
I think this week is gonna be super chalky. On
the money line for favorites.

Speaker 1 (01:07:53):
We said survivor. Let me repeat that, actually Raiders for
the favorite parlay Raiders, Eagles, Steelers, Cults, Chargers, and maybe
throw in the Packers autlined minus six survivor. We just
said Packers. Yeah sharp versus square. Let's see, last week

(01:08:15):
I had the Jets, you had the Saints. You one
I lost. Who would you like to do this week?

Speaker 2 (01:08:22):
Simon, I gotta go Chiefs. I guess that's what I thought.
That's it. I really need to take a stand on
that one. Just like last week with the Saints. It's
like I'm being a big I might as well make
it my Sharper Square.

Speaker 1 (01:08:34):
I think I'm gonna take Carolina, Okay, plus three. Yeah,
I'll take them plus three. But we're in. We're in,
and I like it more and more the more that
we talk about it. All Right, We're gonna be back
on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of the
Volume podcast Network. We will be back Sharper Square YouTube
Sunday morning. You're gonna east drop on a very intimate

(01:08:57):
conversation between me and Simon. We're gonna panic, We're gonna
make human decisions. We're gonna regret the rest of the
day and probably Monday too. We will be back Sharper
Square Sunday at seven thirty pm Eastern. To recap all
that misery, watch or listen YouTube Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download us from Spotify, Apple Pods,

(01:09:19):
wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe we US
five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.
Until next time, Love you,

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Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL Week 6 Bets: Lions-Chiefs, Cowboys-Panthers, Patriots-Saints, 49ers-Bucs and more

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