Sharp or Square - SHARP NFL BETS Week 9: Vikings-Lions, Chiefs-Bills, Cardinals-Cowboys, Broncos-Texans, Colts-Steelers and more

Happy Halloween, gamblers! On a special spooktacular episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 9. They tell their gambling audience their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for Sunday Night Football, the Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Commanders. They also dive into the red hot Indianapolis Colts led by Daniel Jones facing Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a huge AFC matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills, and Bo Nix and his Denver Broncos traveling to play C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. We get a long look at the Arizona Cardinals facing the Dallas Cowboys led by Dak Prescott, as well as a huge NFC battle with Justin Jefferson and the Minnesota Vikings taking on Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. And are the Jacksonville Jaguars walking into a trap set by the Las Vegas Raiders? Or will quarterback Trevor Lawrence navigate those choppy waters? Picks and predictions for NFL Week 9 also include our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume

0:03:00 - START

0:06:40 - SHARP CALLS

0:10:03 - ATLANTA FALCONS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

0:14:49 - LA CHARGERS VS TENNESSEE TITANS

0:19:51 - MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS DETROIT LIONS

0:24:10 - CAROLINA PANTHERS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS

0:33:02 - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

0:37:39 - DENVER BRONCOS VS HOUSTON TEXANS

0:43:35 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

0:48:47 - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS BUFFALO BILLS

0:58:06 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

0:58:07 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS DALLAS COWBOYS

1:08:47 - BIG BETS, PARLAYS, SURVIVOR, SHARP VS SQUARE 

-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper's Square, presented by Hard Rove bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the
betting show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise
guys pay attention. I am Chad Milman. I am joined
by my b ff, my companion, my compadre, professional better

(00:20):
Simon Hunter Ello.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Simon, Chad, how are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Listen? This is like our official Halloween episode. And for
those who don't know, Matt Mitchell is a fiend for
Halloween and all themed episodes, so I would expect it
to be very spooky today, spookier than the lines themselves. Simon,

(00:54):
I know you like to go out and celebrate Halloween.
It's what all single do in their thirties love to do.

Speaker 3 (01:02):
Definitely back in the day all about it, you could
just go out and enjoy the festivities. Now I literally
do the old man move. I got a buddy who
lives a town next to me. It's one intent there's
a lot of people know. It's called Haddonfield, and they
really do it up. She's really old Victorian homes they
do up for Halloween, like literally make them like haunted houses,

(01:22):
and like a whole street gets blocked off and it's
a middle aged shit show. It's a really good time.
You basically just go there, walk from house to house, blackout,
maybe take some psychedelics, who knows, and it's a really
good time again because everyone's in a mask. You know,
if you're talking to a fifty year old or a
twenty year old, it's it's a really funny time. So yeah,

(01:43):
definitely going to be a fun night Friday.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
Yeah. I said to my wife this morning, so you know,
tomorrow's Halloween. How do we get the fuck out of
here and go somewhere so we can avoid it all?
She goes, what do you mean, there's so many kids
who are going to come by, we can't disappoint them.
I'm like, we don't even have kids at home. She goes,
I know, but all the kids in their costume, they're

(02:05):
so cute. We got to be here at least for
a little while. I lost that battle.

Speaker 2 (02:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:13):
My favorite thing, which you can do if you want
to have fun, is I saw there's a guy every
year he gives out potatoes.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
Yeah I saw this.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
Yeah, what's having this guy? Because kids come by, they're like,
I still have my potato from last year. I saved
it this whole year, and now I have another one.
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
I think it's just being funny and the kids are
into it, so I just made me think it. You know,
I don't give up any I just put a bucket out,
and we.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
Will put out the bucket and you know, hopefully people
are kind and they don't take all the candy at once.
That's what we hope for. This is our Thursday, week
nine episode. We're going to arrow down the options on
our quest to find five picks that we both agree on.
I don't know, I feel like we're far apart on

(02:56):
a bunch of games, so it's going to be tricky
to find those five. In case you missed it, Matt Mitchell,
As I mentioned, our long time producer has returned feedback
as a gift. You have any comments about the show,
to send them all to Matt Mitchell. Another reminder, subscribe
to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. All right,

(03:16):
let's get into this thing. Every week we give out
our picks on Tuesday, and every week your professional betting colleagues,
Simon have strong opinions about what we discuss on the show,
and they like to share them with you, and then
we share them with everybody else here on Thursdays in

(03:39):
our favorite segment, it's time for shark calls.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
I have to answer this phone, all right, Rain, Rain
telephone range. Somebody said, maybe want to do man Chad?
Is it's strange days? Just this year?

Speaker 1 (03:58):
Is it strange days? Because the wise agree with me
on just about every single game.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
No, you're gonna get slaughtered this week, but you might not.

Speaker 3 (04:05):
That's the strange days because the public, they've been hit,
they've been cashing on these weeks.

Speaker 2 (04:09):
You've been going back to last year. They have weeks like.

Speaker 3 (04:12):
This where they are it feels like they're stepping in
it and they get away with it.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
And maybe it's the new age.

Speaker 3 (04:17):
But the favorites, like you've seen all the data chat,
it's like the best run they've ever had the start
of season right now.

Speaker 2 (04:23):
And these last two weeks it's been insane. What was
eleven and two? Like you said last week.

Speaker 3 (04:28):
Normally I would be hammering this, dancing on your grave,
laughing at you because you were so joe public. But
you might be right, and I think a lot of
the guys back up some of that. If you want
to go through the plays that I disagree with them on.
A lot of pros like Atlanta, I think that's a
sharp side. A lot of pros like Pittsburgh probably a
sharp side again, I'm just on the opposite side of it.

Speaker 2 (04:50):
Plenty of pros like the Vikings. I don't get it.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
Feels like they're kind of just been a number into
just a bag.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
I just don't trust JJ. I don't get that one either.

Speaker 3 (05:00):
Tons of pros I talked through, like Tennessee, on the
other side of that one, the ones they agree with
me on. Shockingly, a lot of pros love the Chiefs.
I really thought that was gonna be pros on the
Bills and the public would be on the Chiefs. But
plenty of guys I know back in the Chiefs series,
it's there are Bills, betters, a lot of pros on
the Bills. But it's not all I thought it was

(05:21):
gonna be. You know, Chos Orthus pros and it's split
on that game. I mean a game I love. Chad
just never not gonna get there. I guess I don't
love it. I don't want to say I love it
because it's Geno Smith. But the Raiders like that's tons
of pros. I know hammered that at plus three.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
And a half.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
I'm mad I didn't do anything with it because I
just was like, can I just avoid this game.

Speaker 2 (05:41):
I don't want to have.

Speaker 3 (05:41):
Money on Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence. It's down to
minus two and a half now, I'm like, I might
have to bet Trevor Lawrence. I don't want to, though,
because I just that game stinks to high heavens. Tons
of pros on Houston with us. You know, I don't
know how much you liked that game, but another game
I thought was going to be very very public, heavy

(06:03):
on the Broncos. It's actually not like that, right, It's
been pretty split. Most bookmakers I've talked to they don't
desperately need Houston there. I thought that was going to
be a big professional spot. But you know, this week,
it just seems like the pros, I know, they're taking
these home dogs like the Giants, and I try to
ask them why, and they're just playing the number like

(06:24):
they really logical reasons on it other than this is
what they do long term and it's a winner. And
I told you, I'm just scared about it because this
has not been hitting like it used to these last
couple of years, and we've talked about it, the discrepancy
between having a quarterback you can trust on fourth down
on these short fields with these kickoff rules, it's different,

(06:44):
and these favorites were just hitting differently.

Speaker 2 (06:46):
So yeah, we can dive into it, but really really.

Speaker 3 (06:48):
Split up this week overall over the lot of the games,
but the most part most pros I knew too, they're
just all over these home dogs and they just love
the numbers they're getting on these home dogs.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
Yeah, I think that's a mistake. Let's get into it.
Atlanta at New England, you mentioned it like the two
players we were most concerned about not being available were
Michael Pennix and Drake London, and I think that's part
of why this number shot up. Don't forget on Sunday

(07:19):
this line was three and a half, shot up to
five and a half, actually got up to six at
some point on Wednesday. But there is news out of Atlanta.
Raheem Morris did say he was feeling really good about
Michael Pennix. It looks like Drake London also is on
the road to playing and if those two guys are

(07:39):
playing then it's a different conversation, and all of a sudden,
we're talking about a new England team that is to
me highly overvalued because Drake May is just dropping bombs
and now all of a sudden, everyone thinks he's sort
of the second coming of Tom Brady and is racing
up the charts in the MVP race. But Atlanta offensively

(08:06):
is very well rounded when it has all of its
players available that the Patriots have had a hard time stopping.
The run by Jean Robinson can be a dominant presence.
You kind of need to take last week off the
board as such a massive anomaly burned the tape Atlanta

(08:30):
at five and a half. I totally get why the
wise guys like that play. Explain to me your logic
here if if, by the way, the expectation holds true
and Penis and London are playing, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (08:44):
I think everything you said is true that we've been
saying it for weeks.

Speaker 2 (08:48):
Though this Patriots team's overvalued Drake May.

Speaker 3 (08:52):
It's I think one o their quarterback is done when
he's done in history.

Speaker 2 (08:55):
I think it was Drew Brees or something like that.

Speaker 3 (08:56):
That's basically completing seventy five percent of their past is
through eight weeks and have over two thousand yards. And
you know the difference between obviously him and Drew Brees
is Drake Made is a great athlete. He's got incredible
legs that when it's not working for him throwing the ball,
he uses that gets first downs. And he's been a
unicorn in that way for this Patriots team, right like

(09:18):
he keeps them in drives that they really shouldn't be
in because he uses his legs. And then all the
fifty fifty bucks I just said, he's complete seventy five
percent of his passes. These aren't checkdowns like Drew Brees
was in that twenty eighteen. This is guy's throwing thirty
forty yards downfield and it's working. It's all hitting. So
everything you're chaining about the regression is so true. I

(09:39):
just don't know if.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
This is the spot to get in front of it
because it is Penix and it is outdoor.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
Like again, he's played two outdoor games this year. Penis
as a starter with guys healthy Carolina zero to thirty.
They didn't score a single point against Carolina, Okay, not
a big deal.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
Then they went to San.

Speaker 3 (10:00):
Franc I know, but I'm saying like it's a fluke game, right,
Those things happen like you can't take much away from them.

Speaker 2 (10:07):
That's why I try to not hold too much against him.

Speaker 3 (10:09):
In that game, he went to San Francisco, looked anemic,
scored ten points against a defense with no Nick Bosta,
no pass rush, and no Fred Warner in their first game.
Like made the four Nits defense look like a juggernaut
without two all pros. So, you know, ten points on
the road there. I just I'm worried about Pennix. I
just don't trust them yet. Rather, i'd be at home

(10:30):
indoors as a favorite. I like him on the road
as a dog. I don't know if I can get there.
But everything Shat's saying is so true. This is an
incredible spot for the Falcons trend wise, Like there's a
ton of trends Patriots are based on this insane five
game ats streak. You want to fade those type of teams,
especially young teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year.

(10:50):
They tend to struggle in this exact spot. So I
get why you're doing it. I just I haven't bet
the Falcons. I just I'm scared off of it. I'm
probably just gonnad up with the Patriots on the money
line on Robin, even though you're so right, like it's
it's a spot they should lose. But I think between
the vrabel playing this young quarterback on the road, the
way Drick May has been playing, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
I just can't. I can't.

Speaker 3 (11:11):
I can't get there on this Falcus, even though you're
right it's an inflated number.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
Well, look, this is always a challenge, and I think
we have a similar challenge with the Colts and the Steelers.
When are you fading the team that is riding so high?
When do you get off that roller coaster because you
know it's going to start to go down again. It
doesn't just keep going up. Trying to time that is
the hardest part of some of this. So we're putting

(11:35):
a pin in Atlanta, New England. Let's we'll end up
talking about it on Sunday because we might have a
hard time finding five. And this is going to be
one where I think we're going.

Speaker 2 (11:43):
To get I have five. I love I just you don't.
You just don't like them.

Speaker 1 (11:47):
Honestly, That's that's the point of the game. My friend.
We got to find five that we both love. Chargers
minus eight and a half at Tennessee. Uh, interesting game.
We talked about loving the Chargers on Tuesday. That's when
it was it nine and a half. Now it's moved

(12:07):
even more. You mentioned off the top sharp calls, the
wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing
with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This
team has a very hard time looking like a professional
football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half.

(12:29):
I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value
is on the Titans other than they're at eight and
a half home home point eight and a half point
home dog because the Chargers. They should crush in this
game if they play like the Chargers can play.

Speaker 2 (12:49):
Yeah, and a lot of it.

Speaker 3 (12:52):
I think it's just what we talk about every week,
Like certain pros and certain groups. They're just playing the
lulls of averages like cheps. When we heard these team
can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they?
I think they can, Like you just talked about it,
You're missing key guys here.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
I can't state that enough.

Speaker 3 (13:11):
And you know it's a unique spot too with this
Chargers team coming off kind of a mini buy, right,
I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world justin Herbert, who couldn't
stand being in front of the camera is now it
feels like every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend
and it's like I love it, Like, finally.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
Herbert's being a QB one.

Speaker 3 (13:31):
What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that
embracing it, like and the moxy of it. Now I
think too the season he's having. You know, people are
loving Herbert right, He's in the top what five We
talked about the MVP betting right now, He's just way
up there. And it's the stats, right the two thousand yards,
he's like got a ton of passing yards. And when

(13:52):
I really dove into this one, I kind of really
thought to myself, what are I, me and Chad back
in here with Horrorball on the road, Like, are there
numbers going to back up us taking him as a
big favorite here? Because I want to see why the
pros are fading horrible here, because to me, this is
like an auto play Horrball big favorite against the team
that can't stop the run, love their best run defender.

Speaker 2 (14:16):
What is there to fear? And even the numbers back
it up.

Speaker 3 (14:18):
Chad Harball, he's closed the favorite eleven times with the Chargers.
He's seven and four against the spread in those games.
If we're going just him as a road favorite, horriball.
Since he's been with the Chargers, they're ten and two
against the spread as a road favorite against the spread.
That's crazy. I can't get over that. Now, let's factor

(14:40):
in extended rest. That's a big deal for the Chargers team.

Speaker 2 (14:44):
They are a perfect five and oh five and oh
against the spread and the spot with Horrball going from
West coast to the East coast.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering.
I just it's under ten. I can't avoid it. And
chatter on two huge chalk favorites, one in the Lines
one of the Chargers. I shockingly love them both.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Yeah, I'm not. This is where you know the the
changes in the NFL the past few years have really
Retavock with how people look at these games and think
about underdogs at home and big numbers and if you're
not adjusting, look, we could get a bit on this
game right, very possible. We're gonna come out looking like

(15:32):
fools in this game. But you have to be throwing
out a lot of the old theories because of the
way people are going forward and fourth downs, because of
the length at which they can kick a field goal,
because of how bad some team's been playing, and the
discrepancy and quarterback play has had a material difference on

(15:54):
how these teams are covering the spreads the past couple
of years, and so it's just getting harder and harder
to cover a big number for some of these teams.
Also because because teams are going for it more, they're
scoring more touchdowns, and that also makes it harder to
cover a big number because you're coming back from further down.

Speaker 3 (16:15):
So and just some teams are like, I'm trying to
beat in people's heads here. Some coaches they get their
guys up for these type of road games, like coming
from West to East used to be an old cool
fade spot for professional betters, and with the cryotherapy, the
airplanes and so it's whatever it is, it's just not
that way anymore. And even diving into horriball not including

(16:35):
him with just the charges him in the NFL, his
entire career, come from east to west. He's fifteen to
four as a favorite on the road against the spread
and the spot. He's been doing it for years with
different quarterbacks, different teams. He just seems like a guy that,
like we talk about time, coaching matters, getting the guys up,
getting their guys ready for an early start. It doesn't
affect his team. So yeah, I'm shocked so much professional

(16:58):
money is coming in and moving this number down to
eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (17:01):
But like you said, we'll take that value.

Speaker 1 (17:03):
Well, you just mentioned the other game Minnesota at Detroit.
Detroit is a nine point favorite, hard rock eight and
a half at a lot of other places. I love it.
This was Chad's Troyce.

Speaker 2 (17:16):
Tice.

Speaker 1 (17:19):
Why are people getting excited about JJ McCarthy. Why are
they trying to find the good in the two games
that he played, which weren't very good and getting excited
about the number of eight and a half or nine
for the Vikings. The Lions are a dominant team. They
do not have close games. If they have close games,

(17:42):
it's games that they lose. When they win, they win
so freaking big and this is a classic spot for
them to win so big, and I pointed this out
on Tuesday. It's not about the Brian Flores pass rush
and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been
good all year, bottom ten across the board in multiple
advanced analytics stats like this is not a rush defense

(18:06):
that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense,
which is really what the Lions like to be, and
we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the
Lions Jared Goff Dan Campbell in a great rush offense
against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback
who hasn't played in six weeks, who they may or

(18:26):
may not have been keeping on the bench because they're
kind of worried about how good he might be. What's
the debate here? I don't want to hear. Oh, well,
it's the number guy, look at the teams, That's what
I have to say.

Speaker 3 (18:41):
Yeah, honestly though, it's I think a lot of these
pros love JJ.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
They got me to flip in the summer. It must
have been the summer heat.

Speaker 3 (18:48):
But like I had zero view on Jjay, didn't really
have any kind of read on them, and all some
of these guys hyped them up, said he's gonna be
the next second coming of Sam Darnold, and he been
anything but right. And this team this year, this fighting team,
is what I thought they were gonna be. Last year
with San Donald though, it was gonna a ton of dysfunction,
a nameless defense that just can't get after the quarterback.

(19:10):
But last year everything went their way, right, they got
all these crazy turnover bounces, and this year it's not
hitting the same. And you know a couple of trends
that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team.
The only one I could think of was, well, it's
a Lions team, huge win against the Bucks and then
a bye week, right, Usually a team with a big

(19:32):
win like that and don't extended home reunt homestead, so
you know ten to fifteen plus days in this exact spot.
This is again a lot of data. They's seventy nine
one hundred and four, so forty four percent against the
spread in the spot. So you could say, well, this
isn't a great spot for the Lions. Sam counter I
have with that Chargers one. It's about the coaching, Like there,

(19:54):
I can't see Campbell letting the guys have a letdown here.
And okay, let's dive in the numbers with Campbell what
he's been like with extended rest. With this Lions team,
they're fifteen to four against the spread, covering by him
with seven points per game in this exact spot. So
I love it like I love the fact that Campbell
gets his guys ready for these type of games, even

(20:14):
when they're big favorites in this spot because because you know,
it's been what you had three years now, the Lions
haven't be getting respect from the books and they're still
covering in this enter percent clip. They've been big favorites
in a lot of these spots and we've had to
just bite the bullet and take it because we know
it's a little bit of an inflated line. But you know,
to me, it's under another It's just like the Chargers
under that key number of ten and eleven. I'm gonna

(20:35):
take it here like the new NFL. I don't think
the bookmakers some of these offenses, they've caught up to it.
And could me and Chack get burned in the first
half and the Lions go over three on fourth downs
and we're down ten to seven, Sure, but we still
have the belief that we can get twenty eight points
to the second half of this Lions team against ak
You seem, like you said, just can't stop the run.

(20:56):
So love this patch up. The Lions have them waivered.
Hearing a lot of noise from a lot of pros
on s Vikings team.

Speaker 2 (21:02):
But I think we're in agreement. Think they're betting a
number here, but this is the wrong game they'd be
playing that type of game.

Speaker 1 (21:08):
Yep, agree, totally agree. We love the Lions here. All right, Well,
we got two games that we both agree on Carolina,
two big favorites, two big favorites. Jesus, what is happen
It's going this year? What has happened to us? Carolina
is a thirteen and a half point underdog on the
road at the Green Bay Packers, and our question on

(21:30):
Tuesday was would Bryce Young be starting?

Speaker 2 (21:34):
He is?

Speaker 1 (21:36):
I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something
that was interesting to me. Carolina allows the fifth fewest
plays per game, which equals a top ten success rate
on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get
big games early in a series. The Packers rake twenty

(21:59):
third in play per game. They're very explosive, so we
know they're going to be able to score points, but
they do it while not getting a lot of long drives.
They don't have a lot of plays over the course
of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young
and a run defense that until this past week against

(22:20):
the Bills had been trending upward, and the fact that
they are very good in early down success rate, they
might be able to limit the Packers scoring opportunities, which
makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am
I stretching? Am I reaching? Am I just trying to

(22:43):
find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers,
which I haven't done, by the way. I'm just sort
of laying out a theory on a really big number
for a team that had been trending upward, and I
think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what's
happened the past couple of weeks.

Speaker 2 (23:02):
You're h laers, I teel you bet this.

Speaker 3 (23:04):
I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my
bigger bets. I'm simply, I mean, sounds stupid. We are
simply playing the number here the Packers, owen.

Speaker 2 (23:12):
I mean.

Speaker 3 (23:13):
Jordan loves specifically oh and four against the spread as
a favorite of seven points or more, and we've seen
it this season especially. They just play the level of
the competition, right, Like if you get them against a
good team and all eyes are on them and they're
in a big spot, it seems like their offense roles
they put up a ton of points. They keep the
foot on the gas. See this year, when the're playing

(23:35):
against bad teams, they just don't press. They're not trying
to blow teams out and roll.

Speaker 2 (23:39):
So it's a huge number.

Speaker 3 (23:41):
I'll join you on it, especially the fact that you
know the Panthers just got blown out, embarrassed their own right,
this is tends to be a nice spot where team
wants to bounce back. And historically teams in the spot
are sixty one percent against the spread losing by thirty
points or more at home now on the road. So
trends like it. But yeah, they're they're just other games

(24:01):
I've bet into. But I exactly, I know exactly where
you're coming from. We have to play this one. But
it's just tough for me to better confidently just because
this Panthers team can get rolled here, run defense, if
the things, if the Green Bay gets things rolling offensively
like we saw with them against Pittsburgh.

Speaker 2 (24:20):
Horrible matchup.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
Then in fact, in the fact that it seems like
Parson has kind of figured out that defense got more comfortable.
Not a great matchup for Panthers either, that both their
tackles cannot stop Parsons if he wants to get to Bryce.
So it were really are playing the number here and
trusting that the Packers just don't roll bad teams.

Speaker 1 (24:39):
Well, we don't have to put it in, but it is.
It is gonna be a game where all of a sudden,
it's not brass balls. It might percolate as well.

Speaker 3 (24:48):
I'm saying Sunday morning, if you're like, this is one
of my two or three I need in, I'm not
gonna fight you on because I'm gonna bet it, but
I'm like, I hope Chack can.

Speaker 2 (24:54):
Avoid this one.

Speaker 1 (24:55):
Please. It's definitely not. It's it's definitely not like I
already know the game where I'm most heavily invested, and
this is not going to be one of those games.
I can guarantee you Indianapolis.

Speaker 2 (25:05):
We both are so wish you washing about it. We
know it's the right play.

Speaker 1 (25:09):
We know it's one hundred percent the right player. I'm
going to watch it on Sunday. We're gonna be like,
are you freaking kidding me that we'd not play this game.
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(26:54):
is a three point underdog at home. You like the Cults,
I like the Steelers. So we're at a stand still here.
The wise guys have come in on the Steelers as
well from sharp calls. I think there's some schematic issues.
I think there's on both sides. By the way, I

(27:14):
think the Steelers defense has been terrible. I think they
are primed to be completely cut up by Daniel Jones
in the spot because they play a lot of single
high safety, and that's a great way for Daniel Jones
to find open receivers, which he's been doing. He's been
excellent against single high safety this year. But the Colts
also have injuries at both cornerback positions. They are not

(27:37):
very good covering tight ends, and Steelers are running tight
end sets, you know, double tight end sets fifty percent
of the time. So last week we like Tomlin because
he was a three and a half point dog at
home coming off a bad loss in which his defense
did not play well.

Speaker 2 (27:55):
I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
can make what do you guys quit today?

Speaker 1 (27:59):
Historically that still holds up right. He's still the greatest
coach in NFL history covering as a dog of three
plus points.

Speaker 2 (28:09):
Look the greatest of all time. Look at your work.

Speaker 3 (28:11):
Let's go mat Like we talked about the pros, they're
all over Pittsburgh, especially at.

Speaker 2 (28:16):
The plus three and a half.

Speaker 3 (28:17):
That's any guy I talked to, it's not Pittsburgh plus three,
it's the three and a half hopping on that.

Speaker 2 (28:22):
It's a key number. Like you said, anybody can look.

Speaker 3 (28:26):
All the trends love Tomlin and this execs spot like
a blowout loss at home the week before. Now he's
a home dog again against the team well above five hundred.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
This is usually a smash spot.

Speaker 3 (28:37):
I agree with you, but a lot of those Tomlin
stats are old, and I'm trying to adjust to that
because it's just it's a new age met and we've
been betting that way. We have a winning record this year,
even though it's a chalky year in history, because we've
leaned into it where it's like certain games, certain matchups.
I know exactly what you're saying and talking about, Like

(28:58):
Daniel Jones, he's been due for a letdown game. Can
you know Jonathan Taylor get muddy down in a sloppy
field outdoors? Like is there a path for this Pittsburgh
team to win and pull off this upset?

Speaker 2 (29:11):
Of course, like this Colts team. That's what's so.

Speaker 3 (29:13):
Funny everyone putting them number one in their power ratings.
It's like the stupidest exercise in all of the NFL.

Speaker 1 (29:20):
Well yeah, I mean, I mean we get to the
next game. I had a thought, by the way, but
it's just like.

Speaker 2 (29:24):
What are we doing here?

Speaker 3 (29:25):
And like what world would the Colts be favored over
the Chiefs at a neutral field, let alone even this
Ravens team. We have all these questions about if it's
the playoffs and Lamar's going, It's just none of it
made sense. Like this cold team has a ton of
holes like you're saying. And another team where they're on
an amazing ats streak like we always say, they tend

(29:47):
to have let down games. No one like we're talking
about no one goes fifteen and three against the spread
or fourteen and two like to start the year against
what It just doesn't happen. So maybe I won't force
us to take the Colts. I'm just I'm dugging on
this team where I love the way they're playing, the
way the offense schemes, Like all these teams are giving

(30:08):
problems to this Pittsburgh team. They've not faced an offense
like this Colts team. This is the best offense by
far they face. I mean Green Bay as good as
they made them look, that's not like a Juggernan offense.
They had not been rolling, they had been inconsistent these
last couple weeks. They got right in that second half
against his bad Pittsburgh defense.

Speaker 2 (30:26):
So I just I'm trying to get there.

Speaker 3 (30:30):
I really am with you, Check, because I think you're
in the right here being on the Pittsburgh side.

Speaker 2 (30:33):
I just I can't do it.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
I'm very public here with the because again, no pros
are on this Colts team, all the pros around Pittsburgh,
especially the three and a half so very very trucky
played by me. But I just I trust the scheme
for this Colts team, and I don't trust Rogers being consistent. Still, Rodgers,
he can put together a good quarter or two for you,
but he hasn't put a complete four quarter game in

(30:55):
my opinion, yet this season.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
So yeah, I like where you're at.

Speaker 3 (31:00):
While you're at there, maybe you can avoid this one
for the contest. But yeah, we're split. I'm on Colt's
minus three. You're probably gonna be on Pittsburgh plus three
and a half.

Speaker 1 (31:07):
Yep, I think that's a completely accurate assessment.

Speaker 2 (31:11):
It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and
squashing greats.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
A game that we both like, Denver at Houston. Houston
is a one and a half point favorite right now, Simon,
this is going to be our brass Balls bet of
the week, presented by hard Rock Bet.

Speaker 2 (31:34):
You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
It's been sitting at minus one and a half all week.
It's starting to trend towards to remember, everybody, Sunday night,
we're doing early leans for week nine. We identified the
Texans at plus one and a half as a game
we were going to be playing. I know we both
bet it at plus one and a half. We even
said on Tuesday still liked it at Texans minus one

(32:01):
and a half. Christian Kirk receiver for the Texans likely
back Nicocollins is potentially back. That are waiting on news
that he could clear the concussion protocol, but he was
limited in practice on Wednesday, so they are hopeful, and
against a team that's missing pass certained, so that could
be an even bigger advantage as to why we like

(32:24):
the Texans than them getting back any players because the
Bronco's pressure depends on being able to bring extra players,
at least extra player because Pascertain can handle half of
the field by himself. If he's not playing, that changes
everything defensively for the Broncos. Sean Payton even admitted like

(32:45):
that is just a massive change for us that we're
going to have to manage. You can't just do the
same scheme that they were doing. He said that in
pres compas earlier this week. So we're still on Houston
minus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (32:59):
And as good as Denver has been, I think we're
both in agreement.

Speaker 3 (33:02):
We've had major questions this year about bow Knicks and
him being the quarterback in this league. For after a
year of teams having tape on him, you've seen teams
have made adjustments, and you know, even I want to
give him credit because the hardest thing to do is
go off script right after the script is done in
the second half, teams kind of know what you're gonna
do and they've adjusted to you.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
He's actually performed really well bo.

Speaker 3 (33:23):
Next this year, Like he's really like that second half
against the Eagles really impressive. Obviously second half or just
I should say, fourth quarter against the Giants. Something we'd
never seen before. Two passing touchdown, two rushing touchdowns. But
I I've talked about it a little bit coming of
the year. I really like betting bow as a favorite
like we did last week, and I really like to
fade him as a dog like he just whatever it's

(33:46):
been in his career. Whenever the line's under three or less,
he's five and six straight up. But as a dog,
he's four and seven against the spread. So you know,
last year what was he eight to oh, nine to
zero as a favorite? Was you only could really get
him when he was a dog. And if you go
back and look, it's because when he's playing really good teams,
he struggles and when he faces really good defenses, he

(34:08):
seems to struggle.

Speaker 2 (34:09):
So as much as we have to rely on CJ.

Speaker 3 (34:12):
Here, and it's a little worrying some right, this is
gonna be the best pass for us the Texans have
faced all year, no doubt about it. I think this
is gonna be a great match for this Texas defense.
I think they're gonna get away with a bunch here
and to me, that secondary of this Denver team, they
can be passed on downfield. And you saw last week
when CJ. Gets going his downfield throws. They look in rhythm.

(34:32):
That's how they can beat you, right, getting you really
spread out. So another game where I was looking for
reasons to maybe get off Houston because it feels like
I've been riding him a little bit here and they've
been cashing for me. But it's another great match for them.
And you know, we'll talk about we can talk maybe
about the fort Ninitars game, but basically this Houston team,

(34:53):
their defense played like thirty snaps like their offense. I
think they played seventy five or seventy six snaps against
that forty nine Ers defense. Historically really good defense like
defenses like them. They're giving up like less than twenty
points per game. When they play a following game where
they played less than forty snaps. It's been really beneficial

(35:14):
for that defense, right, It's like a mini buy for them.
So I like the spot of this Houston team being
semi arrested because they had such an easy matchup the
previous weekend. Just the fact that Denver feels a little overvalued.
People are still feels like they're looking at their records, right,
You're still looking at the Euston team that and the
public GUYE is not that good. I mean it was
just what two weeks ago they had one win and

(35:36):
they had I think it was four loss or five losses.
So I think it's another spot for them to keep cruising.
And yeah, really banking here on this defense. Honestly, just
like last week, it's forty nine ers, like, Yeah, I
think we're both in agree. We don't really trust Houston's offense,
but this defense, you know, between Will Anderson and in
the secondary, it's just a really, really great defense Houston

(35:57):
has this year.

Speaker 1 (35:58):
Yeah, that's what's interesting to me. And you're right, by
the way, the Texans last week had seventy five plays
on offense and only forty four plays on defense, so
you know, a good twenty five percent less than what
a team would normally play if most teams get about
twenty get about sixty snaps. So on defense, I feel

(36:22):
like the defense is what's being forgotten in this conversation
for the Texans. Everyone is always so focused on CJ.
Stroud and his struggles and that he hasn't been playing
as well and that he's missing throws. And last week
was a good game for CJ. Because they were consistent,
They did have a lot of long drives. He was
converting for the most part. But people forget how good

(36:44):
this defense is and it's better than the Broncos defense,
and I don't know if that's being discussed as much
like the Houston Texans defense is on pace to set
multiple NFL records over the course of a season for
how they're playing. So that's the reason why I like it.
It's they're missing Sir ten on defense for the Broncos,

(37:06):
and the Texans defense is freaking awesome, and I feel
like it's being slept on. Love it, you know what
you don't love, which I do. Jacksonville Jaguars minus two
and a half, minus one twenty at hard Rock, so
most places, it's minus three at the Las Vegas Raiders.

(37:30):
You say this is square, you say it's a trap.
I say it's obvious. And this is even with Max
Crosby expected to play. He did not practice on Wednesday,
made me limited on Friday back injury. He's the only
weapon that would scare me as a uh that should

(37:51):
scare the Jaguars on offense because the real question here
is about Gino brock Bauers will be back, Can Ginos
be can Gino be so much much better with brock
ba hours that it will allow the Raiders to be
offensively competent because I do think both teams are going
to have to score a crap load of points in

(38:12):
this game.

Speaker 3 (38:14):
Yeah, it's again a game two three years ago. I
would be fighting you on taking a huge stan. I
got no interest in doing that with this game here,
like I will put my energy elsewhere. But I'm glad
the professionals backed me up, like clearly, like they the
money came out.

Speaker 1 (38:31):
Yeah, totally.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
The Raiders three and a half apparently was a gift.
I'm kind of mad I missed it. But it's like
I just was like, Okay, maybe this will get to
five or six, like let this keep running, and it didn't.
They hammered it like this now Mice two and a half,
I could be talking into it, honestly, even though I
know for a million reasons the wrong bet the wrong side.
You're betting Trevor Lawrence on the road as a favorite,

(38:57):
and he's beloved by public money. I mean, just every
book maker I talked to, all different books it's all
JAG's money, never any amount of it. And what Chad
just said it's for good reason, Like if there's no
Max Crosby, what is the fear Trevor Lawrence who's giving
him issues that day? The only thing you can hang

(39:17):
on is this will be Geno Smith finds it and
it's a shootout right, thirty four to thirty one, last
team as the ball wins it. So it's a crazy line,
like I just can't give the way the books are
praising it. I took some on the over just in
case there is no Max Crosby. The total is forty
four and a half, Like, okay, I'll bite on that,

(39:38):
but you could talk to me to probably come Sunday.

Speaker 2 (39:40):
I just my whole job.

Speaker 3 (39:41):
He was trying to protect people and just get them
the insight out here, and it's like I knew the
pros would beyond this.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
I was trying to protect you and them. Even though
I hate this.

Speaker 3 (39:50):
I do not want to have a plant Life flag
and stand tall on the raiders in Geno Smith, but
I just every inch of my body, just like you
are with Pittsburgh. It feels like that's the wrong thing
to do. But when I'm fading Pittsburgh, I'm fading him
with the number one offense and Daniel Jones and that
juggernaut of a Colts offense.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
I can't feel.

Speaker 3 (40:10):
Confident in the same with Trevor Lawrence, who just never
ending amount lets it's down going back, not that you
have a horseship your ass JAD.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
I cannot believe we covered that Jags Chiefs game, like
now that we're three weeks out, like this Chiefs team
has been absolute incredible and it's like.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
Oh, that was a miracle, a miracle cover.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
So that's maybe my biggest issues. I just can't get over.

Speaker 3 (40:34):
This Jags team still is not the type of team
that deserves the amount of respect they're getting right now.
But like we said, this is really you betting about
how bad this Raiders team is, how bad Gino has been,
and you're getting a good number now, especially in my
two and a half at a hard rock, So again,
I'm not gonna be a hard time. I just was
at the three because it was like, what are we
doing here? We're just gonna walk into all these traps.
But maybe the Lions moved so much we got the

(40:56):
best of the number here in the pros, they got
the best of the number of three and a half.

Speaker 1 (41:00):
Schematically, I like the fact that the Raiders don't know
how to cover that their defensive backfield is just so
bad and allowing the highest completion rate for quarterbacks in
the NFL. And so it's also to me more than
Trevor Lawrence, it's a bet on Liam Cohane. I like
Liam Cohne. I think he's a good coach, and I

(41:21):
think he'll do more over the bye week to scheme
up a win and make things good for Trevor Lawrence.
Then I have faith in Pete Carroll and what he
can do with just a depleted talents.

Speaker 3 (41:32):
And I'll give the one trend. We all know the
one trend what's going to be. It's basically a team
with a win percentage below forty percent a game after
the game they just lost by thirty plus points ninety six,
sixty eight and four against the spread, so fifty nine
percent since two thousand and three. This season, those teams
in this exact spot, they're four and one against the spread.

(41:55):
So again it's a Raiders spot.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
We know that.

Speaker 3 (41:58):
But my whole point to agree with Chat is that
made the lines move so much at this point it
is a good Jack sign. But that's just I knew
there was gonna something of a trender for that, because
it's just like, man, why do I want to bet
this Raiders scene? There must be a reason, but I
hate it, and I'm glad it's moved so much. I
can maybe avoid it. I don't know if Check can
avoid it now he loves his jackside.

Speaker 1 (42:17):
Oh no, I already bet the Jags and minus three.

Speaker 2 (42:19):
Oh God, we'll get the two and a half. You've
at least got a good number now.

Speaker 1 (42:23):
I definitely bet the Jags and minus three Kansas City,
Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says
when it was one and a half. It's moved towards
two at a lot of places, but when it hits two,
it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills.

(42:46):
No Isaiah Pacheco win this game for the Chiefs, but
no Wad Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme
of things, I think that's a much worse situation for
the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm gonna
like back in Mahomes as a short fit just about
any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I
think is more complete against the depleted defense. I know

(43:09):
that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering,
but I think there's a difference between a Cults riding
high and covering and a Chiefs riding high and covering.
And I know you're with me on this. I don't
think we're buyers on the Bills defense. And that's the

(43:30):
biggest problem to me.

Speaker 3 (43:32):
Yeah, not a buyer and the Bill's defense, and I
just I'm not a buyer in josh a on right now,
Like I just something seems off with them. I talked
about it going into the draft process. The number one
guy I trast trust for wide receiver evaluation is Steve Smith.
He's he does not pull punches when he breaks down

(43:54):
this buffalo receiving corps like Kean Coleman, he says he
shouldn't even be in the league, like this guy I
can't get separation, doesn't run, Chris Broutes, doesn't help Josh Allen,
Josh Allenson scramble mode, which Shakir you know he's been
a great receiver for that because he does that for them.
So that's allowing twenty points reviewer. So it's happened twenty

(44:14):
eight times in his career, he is twenty three and
five straight up against those teams, twenty two and five
ats against those type of teams. That's what makes him superman.
That's why he's the MVP of the league. Last year,
Josh Allen, he faces his dominant defense, it didn't matter.
He's there's no scheme to stop him right now. Just
feels like his receivers himself or beating themselves. He just
doesn't look comfortable. His throws aren't great. He doesn't make

(44:37):
the right reads either, like he just locks into guys,
and when he's in scramble mode, doesn't feel like his
receivers are helping him out either. So you know, just
going back to the data too, him being a home dog,
super rare.

Speaker 2 (44:47):
Like I look through it.

Speaker 3 (44:49):
It's only happened about five times, and he's won every time.
The only one loss was too Momes, So we know
the deal. Like you said, the resistance is that too.
A bunch of books did hit two and a half.
A ton of money came in, A ton of money
came in on this bills team shocked had held it too.

(45:10):
I thought it would go back down at one and
a half, So that's what I keep telling people it
is split. The Pros are split down the middle here,
and like me, I've taken a large position on this
Chiefs team.

Speaker 2 (45:18):
I really like it.

Speaker 3 (45:19):
I know some guys out of their way, they've taken
really large position on this Bill, especially now they've gotten
the two and a half. So I love these type
of games, right, It's gonna be one in the sports books,
a lot of yell, a lot of back and forth.
I just think one team and the Chiefs, like Schad said,
Pachecko's a big injury, there's no doubt about it, but
Pachecko still has not been right since coming back from

(45:41):
his injuries, still os last two years. And the flip side,
I just think defensively, offensively, all feels like it's clicking for.

Speaker 2 (45:48):
This Chiefs team.

Speaker 3 (45:50):
If they feel like a totally different team than what
they were the started season, just because they've gotten so healthy,
the young defense, they're playing in rhythm with spacks, defensive calls.

Speaker 2 (45:58):
So I love it. It's a true test here for
this Chiefs defense.

Speaker 3 (46:02):
And on the flip side, Mahomes in this offense, they
should have no problem against this Bill's defense, like this
is a great matchup for them.

Speaker 2 (46:08):
So it really is.

Speaker 3 (46:09):
Once again, we all know Cook top five running back,
he's a game changer. I thinks Back takes him away
and puts it all on Josh Allen because Josh Allen,
like I said, he's just struggled this year. He's not
been I know they have him as like a top
three guy in the MVP voting. That's super fraudulent to me.
He's had a very easy schedule. He's just not playing
at the level expecting to play out. So I love
this is a true test for him, and shockingly game

(46:32):
they kind of need to keep up with his Patriots
team in their division in a game, the Chiefs need
to keep up with Denver in their own division. So
I love it that both these teams are semi desperate
and all the history behind this matchup. So I am
glad you're in sync with me on this Chiefs team
because this is that type of game where I could
see why you would be on the bill. So it
feels good at least we're in sync and well up

(46:52):
to three games now that we like to put in
so we make them stack.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
We're getting there. You may really good point about the
playoffs versus the regular season. This is a playoff game.

Speaker 2 (47:05):
Yeah, right.

Speaker 1 (47:05):
The Chiefs are five and three, the Bills are five
and two. The Bills are tied a top the AFC
East with the.

Speaker 2 (47:11):
Patriots behind a half a game.

Speaker 1 (47:14):
They're right, they're behind half a game. The Chiefs are
five and three, the Broncos are six and two. So
this is a game that, over the course of the
season is going to have a huge impact on playoff seedings.
If the Chiefs continue to play as well as they've
been playing, could be after this weekend, if what happens,
if what we expect to happen happens, the Broncos are

(47:36):
going to be have three losses. So the Chiefs need
to keep pace. They can't go to five and four
playing as well as they've been playing. And to me,
it actually is about that defense. They've just been so
in sink since that Jaguars game. It's almost like they
were so embarrassed in that Jaguars game and the way

(47:57):
Trevor Lawrence was able to get into the end zone
off of a botched play. I think they've just been
a different team. So hopefully that continues to be the
case this But.

Speaker 3 (48:08):
Again I don't put on the defense like to me,
they're two of their worst losses this year, the Eagles
and that Jags game.

Speaker 2 (48:15):
I think like they should. I think he does himself.
Mahomes puts on himself those two pick sixes. Yep, again
red zone picks sixes there.

Speaker 3 (48:23):
Even even Mahomes is human enough that that that he
can't bounce back from.

Speaker 2 (48:27):
This type of scenario.

Speaker 3 (48:27):
So yeah, it's it is interesting, like they could, like
you just said, their record could be totally different if
Mahomes didn't throw those two pick sixes in there when
he's about to score a touchdowns. So, like we said,
it's Philly God Chiefs teams still little undervalued here, we're
getting a good number on them.

Speaker 1 (48:43):
I put in these last two games, which happened to
be the primetime games, because I think we disagree.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Yamahama, It's fright night.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
Seattle at Washington. Washington was at three and a half.

Speaker 2 (48:53):
It's down to three commanders.

Speaker 1 (48:55):
I like the Commanders three and a half. I like
at three. I'm sorry of off it, but at three
and a half, I liked the Commanders, and that's where
the money has taken it. Yeah, Arizona at Dallas, I
like Dallas at two and a half. I think you
like Arizona.

Speaker 2 (49:14):
The Cowboys are pro football's glamourgy, dynamic, progressive and spectacular.

Speaker 3 (49:21):
Again like Arizona, it's not a I'm not going to
fight you on if you if Sunday morning you want
to put Dallas and it's my two and a half,
I'm there. Whether you want to hear some Dax stats,
I got pat stats for data.

Speaker 1 (49:31):
Do you want to share fantastic, Well, quickly I'll do.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
I just thought this was interesting about Sam Darnold, Like
I feel like we do give him loving some of
his flowers, but I just thought it was interesting that
going back even at twenty twenty when he was before
he became the same darn we know and love. Now
he's like incredible off bye weeks. Like it's it's really
wild when you go back and look at his stats.
He averages twenty seven point five points per game after

(49:57):
bye weeks, So it's I just thought that was nique
because it's not just a fluke from like last year
with the Vikings, it's all throughout his career. Whatever that
extent of prep is, he does really get really well,
and we know this commander's defense is atrocious.

Speaker 2 (50:11):
I mean, they are horrible.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
And that's why, like I'm I am totally understanding of
why you're on Washington you like them because like same
with Pittsburgh. So all these games we're talking about here,
you're playing a number in a situation where this is
going to be a heavily public side in the Seahawks
on the road in a primetime game. Historically it probably
would be a good spot for the Commanders. But you

(50:34):
got a bum knee and Jane Daniels playing against a
ferocious defense in Seattle that travels really well, and you're
just taking away Terry McLaurin again, Like I mean, you
saw him in that Chiefs game. He was the only
one doing anything like Deebo. He already looks like it's
week seventeen on those legs. He's just not running like

(50:54):
he was in those first two three weeks. So I
just I get what you're doing here. You're playing the number,
and it's the professional side. The pros are on this,
Like I said, the public, it's a noow. They're just
like me with the Colts, is a very public side
of me taking the Seahawks here.

Speaker 2 (51:07):
But once again, I'm backing what I think.

Speaker 3 (51:09):
Is a really consistent good offense and rhythm, and those
Sam Donald stats can be a peace of mind. It
doesn't seem like he has letdowns because this is a
letdown spot for Seattle. Like we talked about trap spots,
this is the definition of a trap spot. So that's
those are just some stats I whant to give out.
So yeah, we're obviously on the opposite sides with that one.
Let's let's go to the Cowboys game, because I do

(51:30):
have some great Dak stats. You're You're probably right here
with your early read, and I'm probably missing it. I'm
probably overvaluing the effect the Cardinals. All their games are
so close. This does seem like the type of game
where Dak could open it up and beat up on
this team. Uh, you know it's a prime time game, right,
But I mean you talked about it. It's it really

(51:53):
is a you're betting on Dak and nothing else when
you bet this team. So I'll give some great Dak
stats about him, just in these night games. He's twenty
nine to fifteen and won his career in night games
twenty six and eighteen ATS and night games that's two
and oh this season as well. People probably remember covered
against that Eagles Week one, and Packers is a guy

(52:13):
that you know. Since twenty twenty one in night games,
he's fourteen and seven against the spread. And so like,
Dak shows up in primetime games and plays well, we've
seen that consistently. And you know, when they're playing these
night games since twenty twenty at home, Dak's.

Speaker 2 (52:31):
Perfect as a favorite. He's a perfect thirteen.

Speaker 3 (52:33):
And oh, beating his opponents by almost nineteen points per
game in the spot. So like, there's a lot of
stats to love with Dak playing in these prime time
night games. And maybe I am over rallying this Cardinals team,
Like I said that they play all these close games,
they are due to get blown out by somebody. Like
the way they've been in all these games, how much

(52:55):
longer can it go off for? They're just they're not
that good of a team, like we've talked about. And
you know it's a number now that's under three. At three,
I was, okay, I could get there with Arizona. I'll
take that, But now you're down to the key number
of two and a half. Like I said, if you
want to talk to me, in to it. After I've
seen all those stats, about Dak and these exact performances
in these X spots. It's like, all right, I won't

(53:15):
fight it, I'll join chat, I guess, but I don't
feel good about it.

Speaker 1 (53:19):
Well, look, I think we're agreed on the Chargers minus
eight and a half, the Lions minus eight and a half,
the Chiefs minus two, and Houston minus one and a half.
So jesus, how do we end up loving and agreeing
on four favorites?

Speaker 3 (53:37):
We're flipping all the dogs, like the dogs you like,
I don't and the dogs I like you don't.

Speaker 1 (53:41):
That's right, It's just a weird won keeper, right who
So who else could be the fifth? Do you know
what I mean?

Speaker 3 (53:48):
Yeah, I think we'll have a we'll fight about it
Sunday morning about getting that one lesson there, because like
there's always a team one or.

Speaker 2 (53:54):
Two that pop up over the weekend.

Speaker 3 (53:55):
I end up loving more than I did today because
I'm around different people and they're giving me different perspective
and give me different numbers to look at.

Speaker 2 (54:03):
I did.

Speaker 3 (54:03):
I mean again, I hate it, but like it's a
pro spot. That Giant spot's a very professional spot. Like
I said that four nine ers team played whatever you said?
It was sixty six naps on defense.

Speaker 2 (54:13):
Now they're all five. Yeah, back to back road.

Speaker 3 (54:16):
Game against a quarterback that scrambles and you have no
pass rush.

Speaker 1 (54:21):
The Giants are so beat up they have they're already.

Speaker 2 (54:26):
I don't want to bet it. I'm just saying, like,
that's what we're talking about though.

Speaker 3 (54:29):
That's when you dive in the numbers, and that's just
you're betting the number because it's a it is a spot,
it's a professional spot. So we'll see two Bears if
there's no Flaco. Flaco is banged up. Yeah, it's still
interesting two and a half. I could get there on
the Bears, and I couldn't. It's an interesting spot for
them as well. So there's there's some games I think
we'll be able to pop them. But like you said,

(54:50):
right now.

Speaker 2 (54:51):
We're just you know, and it happens every week.

Speaker 3 (54:53):
We've been very good this year, being kind of in
sync finally a little bit split on the chalk and
the dogs we like, and that's a lot of pros
this week.

Speaker 2 (55:01):
It's that way.

Speaker 3 (55:02):
It's just the season just throwing you for a loop.
It's just not going the way it usually goes with
these dogs. So I'm just trying to be careful. That's
why I like that we're so chalk heavy. The chalk
it's been hitting for us again last week are only
two losses of dogs, so it's just.

Speaker 2 (55:17):
We're trying to adjust. But it's hard, man, It is
hard to do after all these years of betting dogs.

Speaker 1 (55:21):
All right, So I'll recap sort of where we stand
at the end. But Simon's biggest bets, pull.

Speaker 2 (55:29):
Up close pints and be a man.

Speaker 3 (55:32):
Chiefs definitely haven't invested in Houston, taking a pretty big
position on them as well, and shock only Lines and
Chargers like we're about to do the money line, Robin,
I have a heavy amount of money invested in those
two money lines together.

Speaker 1 (55:49):
Well, look, I'm glad to see it because those are
the four games that I have pinpointed other than the
Jags from the beginning. So I mean, I guess I
have the Jags. I did not pinpoint the Chargers until
yesterday when it got date and a half.

Speaker 3 (56:03):
But yeah, I would say those four were giving out.
Houston is my least confident one, just because I still have.

Speaker 1 (56:09):
Huh. I I'm surprised because I actually feel almost more
confident about that than I do.

Speaker 2 (56:16):
The Chargers, I don't. I love those hardball stats got
me fired up.

Speaker 3 (56:21):
He just he fift him and being fifteen to four
on East coast trips on extended rest is like insane.

Speaker 1 (56:27):
All right, let's talk about some of these the money
line favorite parlay. Why not Kansas City, Houston, Lions, Chargers
and one more Rams Packers.

Speaker 2 (56:45):
No, because they're big. Let's let's uh, let's get the
juice done a little bit. Let's throw in I mean
you like you like Jacksonville Chad I minus one fifty.

Speaker 1 (56:58):
Great, put it out that.

Speaker 2 (57:00):
Or we could throw.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
In Dallas minus one forty five. I don't I like that.
I think I like Dallas more than I like Fuck
I hate them both kind of Actually, I don't think
about it. Those are two good options, because again, you're
not with me on the Colts, which I think they're Yeah,
they're minus one seventy so the odds aren't as good either.

Speaker 1 (57:19):
Let's go with Jacksonville, Okay, money line round robin favorites
Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville, the Dogs.

Speaker 2 (57:34):
My dog blocks.

Speaker 1 (57:36):
Your dog, Your dog blocks.

Speaker 3 (57:38):
Mon dog, Steelers, Steelers, put your your Lanta Falcons in there.

Speaker 1 (57:45):
Falcons.

Speaker 3 (57:46):
It's kind of force them in just just because I
just there's not a lot of dogs I like this week.

Speaker 2 (57:51):
But Josh Allen plus one fifteen commanders, that would be you.
They're plus one forty, so that is good value.

Speaker 1 (58:01):
Prime time game. Jayden Daniels off a blowout. I know it,
like I know all the things you're saying. But it's
also a great spot historically. It's just going to be
a good spot.

Speaker 3 (58:13):
It is, but it's again, it's a bumney quarterback out
rhythm without a number one receiver, it's not that great.

Speaker 2 (58:18):
We're just playing the numbers.

Speaker 1 (58:19):
And play sometimes that's what you do.

Speaker 3 (58:23):
It is, but it's that's what I'm trying to bring
some logic to it because I just can't take all
these home dogs. It's just not like it used to be.
They're not all going to be hitting like this. But
what do we have for.

Speaker 1 (58:32):
We have three Pittsburgh Atlanta Buffalo.

Speaker 2 (58:40):
Giants, Giants plus one twenty five. I'll do it. And
then what do you think about since you plus one
thirty five? Yeah, because I'm not going to bed till Sunday.
A way flat goes out. We can switch it out
and put in, put in your commanders.

Speaker 1 (58:56):
I mean you could also do Denver.

Speaker 2 (58:59):
Denver. Yeah, they are technically plus one ten. That's fair.

Speaker 1 (59:04):
Alright, let's do Denver. All right. So the underdog parlay Pittsburgh, Atlantic, Atlanta,
Buffalo Giants, Denver. The favorites parlay, Kansas City, Houston, Chargers, Detroit, Jacksonville.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
First Survivor.

Speaker 3 (59:23):
I can't believe I'm doing it, but I got to
use it on taking chargers.

Speaker 2 (59:28):
Okay, chargers be hilarious. If I've seen.

Speaker 1 (59:35):
Year Survivor, I'm so out of it. All right, sharp
versus square? Simon, who are you going with?

Speaker 2 (59:43):
Well? You won last week, didn't you?

Speaker 1 (59:45):
We both? I did you at Pittsburgh? I had I
had the New York Jets. Let's see brass balls. We
chose Houston, Chad choice was Detroit, Simon says, was Kansas City?
You know what? Jacksonville Jaguars.

Speaker 2 (01:00:05):
Thank God, give me the Chargers. I was hoping you
wouldn't take the Chargers. I could. Yeah, give me the Chargers.
Look at us. A couple of squares, not sharper square
square vers.

Speaker 1 (01:00:14):
Square, the square versus square? All right, So the games
we're pretty locked in on for Sunday Chargers minus eight
and a half, Kansas City minus two, the Texans minus
one and a half, and Detroit minus eight and a half,
and we'll have a decision to make for the final

(01:00:35):
five on Sunday. This has been Sharper Square, part of
the Volume podcast Network. We will be back on Sharper
Square YouTube Sunday morning. You're gonna get to eat drop
on an intimate conversation between me and Simon, and we
are definitely going to panic and make human decisions that
we regret the rest of the day. We'll be back

(01:00:56):
on Shrepper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven point thirty pm Eastern.
To recap all that misery, watch or listen on YouTube
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Love you.