NFL betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 10. They tell their gambling audience their favorite NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets for their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest. We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the phone calls he's received from fellow professional gamblers responding to our Tuesday show. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for Monday Night Football, with Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles visiting Wisconsin to take on Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. They also dive into the Indianapolis Colts, fresh from their huge trade for Sauce Gardner, as they take on Michael Penix and the Atlanta Falcons. There's a huge inter-conference matchup between Lamar Jackson the Baltimore Ravens vs. J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings, and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills facing the hapless Miami Dolphins. We'll hear a quick word about Bo Nix and his Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders, and an intriguing divisional matchup between Bryce Young's Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints with new rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Picks and predictions for NFL Week 10 also include our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites and so much more. #Volume
0:03:00 - START
0:04:30 - SHARP CALLS
0:06:50 - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
0:10:13 - NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS
0:14:45 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
0:16:50 - CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. NEW YORK JETS
0:25:49 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
0:28:40 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
0:33:04 - ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
0:42:57 - LOS ANGELES RAMS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
0:49:19 - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS
0:54:50 - BUFFALO BILLS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
0:58:56 - DETROIT LIONS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
1:01:30 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. LA CHARGERS
1:05:00 - SIMONS BIG BETS, SURVIVOR, PARLAYS AND MORE
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Milman, I am.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Joined as always buy my BFF, my companion, Mike Campadre,
my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
I don't feel like I got English enough on that.
Heedo soymon A's beat.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
There you go, dude. There is so much.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
News impacting the lines since the trade deadline, and there's
also just been general massive line movement overall since we
did our show on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Freaking wild, absolutely freaking wild.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I don't know if you've got any deep deep thoughts
on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear
what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls.
This is our Thursday, Week ten episode. We're going to
narrow down the options on the five picks we like
the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe
to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get
into this thing. Every week, you know what we do.
(01:09):
We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters
on all the conversations we had on Tuesday, they've always
got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot
of things to say about what we discussed.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Let's get too sharp, calls.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Hal answer, it's foot all.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Man, Yeah, let's start where you guys are on the
opposite of us, which you know I always always love
here on the other side. And the one that really
jumped out was the Chargers. Hearing a lot of love
from the pros on the Chargers, maybe we're suckers. I
just can't get over again. Plus three here. I just
that's gonna be a fun one to break down.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Some Yeah we're gonna that's the Chargers Steelers game, and yeah,
we're definitely gonna discuss that one.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
So good.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers, Big Chargers,
Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well.
A lot of pros I talked to Tuck Rams money
shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point
this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself.
I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting
(02:25):
it down. That's a fun one. We can break down
some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love
from the Patriots. I once again, I'm dug in. I like,
really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as
I see the injury report and what guys are healthy
for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love
there is for this Patriots side and the sides we
agree on. Chad, we already knew Jets that was gonna
(02:48):
be a pro side. Yeah, it's it's fluctuated the numbers
since the trade deadline.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
That's gonna be a fun one to break down. Miami.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston.
I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention
it the Raiders. Talk to some pros that really like
that one again. Another game I'll hold steady fast and
I really like Denver in that spot and the last
one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros
on this Bear side game that I feel like we
were kind of on the other side of it.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Yeah, talk that we.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons
why they liked that Bear side.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
If we break that game down later.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one
of the games that I was thinking about, and it
was in contention for brass Balls because that number has
moved quite a bit and I haven't been able to
figure out why other than professional money coming in on
the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another
game that I've been getting more and more nervous about,
which is The Box, because I cannot figure out how
(03:44):
that line hasn't moved from two and a half to
three yet. So some pushback from the Wise guys is
probably why. But first let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously,
it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might
not hear. I might not hear the show until after
the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on
(04:06):
the Raiders' side. We both love Denver and like this
wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver
was going to be Simon Says or Chat's choice because
we both liked it so much. We liked it at
eight and a half, it's now at nine and a half.
I don't know what the Wise guys are seeing in
the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against
(04:28):
a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because
he tried to punch a guy in the face, and
you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock
Bauers was wide open every game. I mean, every play.
Isn't all this stuff that Broncos can account for in
a short week in a game the Raiders went to
(04:49):
a full overtime and they're not a very good team.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
I don't get it. I don't get it.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, I think mister White, guys I talked to, they
just don't trust, you know, a quarter about like bow
Knicks to be this big of a favorite in a
divisional game, especially if you look at the history of Denver, right,
And this is the hardest part too, because to me,
it's a lot of it's irrelevant the history of Denver
before Champagne took over. But they have not won against
a divisional opponent in our primetime game since like twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Okay, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
That was my exact pushback. It's like, well, if you
look at those teams from those years, they were bad,
They had bad coaches, they just weren't good, and they've
been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years.
So that makes sense though why they'd push back because
it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
A short week. But I already gave it out.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is
just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
I thought it was three and twenty three.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
I forgot last year the Bears and this exact spot
actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions.
Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, dude, where the Lions should have been up seventy
two to nothing in the first half, and.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
Then even then they're up twenty one nothing or twenty
one to three the first half, and somehow Bears came
back and covered really late. So you know, I'm not
gonna get pushed off this one. I get where they're
coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically,
they can take away bowers and then what are you
going to do as an offense, Like, I know they're
trying to establish a run, but it just now has
(06:22):
been working. Chip Kelly whatever he's going to do. It's
not been working with that run game and Gino.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
I still think.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Even in that game, as good as he looked, he
still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving
with his feet, and it's just a really tough spot.
Offs We talked about it being on a short week
here on the road against the Denver team that you know,
we put it as one of the best teams in
all football, like we're respecting that way defensively, especially, so
I know it's a lot to swallow bow nixt year,
(06:49):
but I can't get away from it.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Cha.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
I really like it, And I don't know, maybe we
do put in the contest multiple figure it out because
there are five games I like this week. But people
know I really love this game. I love this matchup.
First half, full game, Debra, I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
All over it.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Yeah, same, same, same, not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed,
but I don't think so. This was one like coming
out of my one in four malaise. This is one
of the games that made me start to feel like, Okay,
I can see it, I have clarity, I'm feeling confident,
felt good about this one.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
God we need it. We cannot start the week O one.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Dude, we freaking need it, as Bob Scuccy, our old
friend Bob Scuccy like to say, we need this for
our lungs. We are underwater, all right, New York Giants
at the Chicago Bears. This line, it.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Blew up over the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
It got up to four and a half. It's down
to four at hard Rock. We've talked about hard Rock.
It's a sharp book, so that gives communication of what
the wise guys think when this line got to four
and a half.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
But they also love the Bears at three.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
They love the Bears at three and a half, and
some pushed it up too, from four to four and
a half. I started to see the Giants and I
talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is
so bad, and I mean not their run defense. Their
past defense is so bad, and their secondary is so bad.
(08:17):
You could see how Jackson Dark could have a lot
of success against the Bears and a defense that, by
the way, has not been able to hold anybody under
a twenty five point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically
the line of demarcation here. Unless they were committing forcing
(08:38):
a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Commander. They
went against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that
got them to win. In that primetime game against Jayden Daniels,
they beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers.
They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering
because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had,
it's going down to the wire and it's close, and
(08:59):
they're winning because there's something fluky happening, and because Ben
Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good.
So four and a half just feels like too many points.
I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking
the Bears here.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to join on me at Chad,
I if you really don't like a side here, I
think there is still a value on the total. Total
is down to forty six and a half, and all
the reason behind this movement, to me is because of
the weather. People like, we're tracking models, you're getting some info,
and right now a bunch of different models are predicting
(09:36):
rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup,
which to me favors this Bears team that wants to
run the ball heavily and has one of the best
run schemes off football against the defense that is really bad.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Giants are bottom thirty in the league.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
They're they're the worst, are they now?
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, so the Bears.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Like, you're right, I'm just like, obviously, I have a
strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been
so good and that is a major major factor against
this team. And the weather, you're right, could be it
just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to
play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let
Kayleb Williams throw the ball.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, and again it's you can take these positions and
get out of it Sunday if this all blows over
and these models wire turarly off, but you know they're
shooting pretty accurate. Two three days out here, the line
has come down from forty nine to forty six and
a half. They'll let you know. The books are getting
really really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're
looking at the splits right now, it's still mostly towards
(10:40):
the over. I mean, the tickets and the money say
towards the over. At the public obviously, like we talked about,
they're going to be on this Bears team, Like, no
one's going to be trusting the Giants right now, like
what we talked about, right That's why we kind of
like this the Ghiants team. This feels like a good
spot for them, playing against an inflated Bears team that
got really lucky. They covered all those for those people
last week, and those people are coming back now hitting
(11:03):
the Bears again.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy
positions on the Bears, and now you dive into it
and see what the weather could be like, this just
feels are a great spot for the Bear scene. Compared
to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already
has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather, I
don't know. I just I can't get there the Giants
if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you
(11:27):
wantn't want to take as side here, I still think
the underreas value on it.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
I hate the Bears in this spot.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
I know it's such a Giants number, it's brutal.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Such a giant's number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting.
I don't think it's going to get to five. But
I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm
betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one,
So for me, I'm gonna wait. New Orleans at Carolina.
Carolina is a five point favorite. Five and a half,
(12:01):
move to five, still five at hard Rock, five and
a half in a lot of other places. I want
to say play the number, but the truth is, like
this number home or road Division dogs of five plus points,
It's basically a fifty to fifty proposition. So if you're
(12:23):
looking at it from that point of view, there is
no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Caroline at
home is great. The Russian game is great. They're really confident.
The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL
quarterback on their roster.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, the number just spooks you. It sews me too.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
I'll probably end up just taking a large position with
Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game
if I can, because it does feel like it's mispriced,
and this is a great spot for this Carolina team
at home again, it's what we just said is just
a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up
here and have a game of his life. Yeah, we've
(13:10):
seen that happen all the time. Right, these guys pop
for one game. But just as a betting man, I
love this number and working against the Panthers just the
issue of them being a favorite, right, I think they're
on a crazy streak. They're zero to ten as a favorite.
And that's a lot of bright young too. I think
he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah,
I'm a game. I'm not basterly having into. It's just
I found other games this week I like a lot more.
(13:31):
But still on Carolina side, still taking the number at
minus five, but much more comfortable putting their money line
in it. Wow, it's up to the minus two forty five,
so people been hitting it. It was rest and yeah
it's been getting hit, this money line on the Panthers.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
You know a game that we are into and I
hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us.
The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets on Tuesday.
When we started the show, the Jets I think were
two point favorites. It had gone up from one and
(14:09):
a half to two. During the show, the news broke
that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts
for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced
that the Jets were trading Quinn Williams, their star defensive tackle,
to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was
(14:32):
announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker Quinn's brother,
All Pro in twenty twenty three, was being benched for
lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback
is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday,
the New York Jets GM said that the Jets are
(14:54):
still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try.
We are st trying to win this season.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Quote.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page,
because Aaron Glenn said yesterday, I said we would make
the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season.
That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem.
Here's the problem, Simon, You're ready. The line has moved
(15:28):
to Jets plus two at hard Rock plus two and
a half everywhere else and the fundamentals of this game
remained the same. It was never about the Jets defense.
It's about the Jets offense against the Browns defense. Because
we have zero expectations at Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing
(15:49):
Quinn Williams or Sat Gardner, whoever else is going to
be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback.
So we were betting when we liked the Jets the
other day against Dylan Gabriel. All why wouldn't we still
be betting against Dylan Gabriel. This is a massive move.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Yeah, a game though I needed to be Justin Field's Honestly,
I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup
a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland and
Shockling his career. He does really well against these type
of defensive fronts when he plays a defensive front that's
you know, got a high sack rate about four percent.
(16:29):
He's four and two against the spreading his career, which
again doesn't sound great if you look at Justin Field's career,
It's probably the only positive ats Daddy has when.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
You really dive into it.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
He's just not a covering guy his whole career he's
just had a rough go of it, and looking at
this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the
public is so comfortable hammering this brown side even with
all the trades. Even before that we were talking on
our show, they were loving him then as a favorite,
I mean as an underdog. Now they're really still loving
(16:58):
him as a as a favorite. And this to me is
going to come down tons of pros, I know, professional groups.
When I come on the Jets, I mean again, I
get what we're doing it, but there I am also
a little weary of betting this one because we have
to remember these arghuman beings. How are they going to
respond to what just happened from their front office? Like
their front office basically just wave the white flag on
(17:21):
the season like they I agree with it too. I
mean some Jet fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys,
that was like our dream scenario. You dump two guys
that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but
just they're not going to help you get to where
you need to be in the next two to three years.
You need to totally tear it down. So you know, Dallas,
horrible trade. In my opinion, Colt's very questionable. But you know,
(17:43):
for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up
in what should be really good drafts. Now to have
the front office to make the right picks, that's to
be determined. So just for this game chat, I like it.
It's really about the number though, this to me is
going to come down if you can still get the
plus two plus two and a half. You hear this,
I would take the position on the Jets once it
gets blowed the two. I don't know how much I'm
(18:04):
gonna be invested in here until I know exactly who
the quarterback is going to be, and if that is
in fact justin fields, we can re re enter this
one on Sunday morning. Talk about putting in the contest,
but you said it right now, I'm betting into the
two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Yeah, I am as well.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated
is you guys get a chance to prove themselves in
a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody
for next season how well they can play.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
I just I never buy the fact that guys are
going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid,
you want to stay in the league.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
This is your best chance to do it.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
There's gonna be a guy who's getting a chance to start,
a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Oh, I'm in Like on the like Breese Hall, Briesaw
had a foot out the door, was almost on the
Kansas City Chiefs. Kn't it wake up today? And he's
still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally,
Like yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's
a professional. I just think of all of those snares
like that, the guys on this team, you know, you're
so close to being on a winning team. Obviously not everybody.
(19:13):
I mean some guys went the Dallas. That's a that's
a tough trade, but you know, I just I thought
it was really interesting that they didn't move Brisoll because
they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth
and it's like, what are you doing, Jets?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Just sell it all, man, you're trying to lose here
and Bristol.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Again and some of it's back the Jets here. I
am so happy he's still on this team, they need
them offensively. He's by far their best weapon.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Well look, the flip side is Brisall keeps showing how
good he is, and next year he just gets a
bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so you know, so yeah,
I hate to say it, but we're kind of on
the Jets Jacksonville at Houston.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Houston.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Look, on Tuesday we talked about wanting to wait on
this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog.
It's one at Hard rocked that one and a half
in a lot of other places.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
We're just betting on the defense.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect
Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better
because I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got
a full week of practice. He's not coming in and
then end at the beginning of the second quarter any
game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So
I like, I still like Houston here a lot. I
(20:22):
like him as an underdog a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Simon be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just
moved the plus two.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So really, yeah, so there's gonna be money coming on
the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their
last couple of meetings. They've just even when CJ has
been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a
really weird matchup, just divisional. When you talk about time,
there's a couple of divisional games this week, you'll I'll
give out the trends. There's just trends that favors certain teams,
certain matchups.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
So yeah, game, I'm going with you on.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to
be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because
it's like I'm not going to force this one unless
I'm getting really good numb or so.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
It's two at hard Rock right now.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
A couple of books, like we say hard Rock's a
short book, A couple of public books have already popped
two and a half, so this could get to three
by Sunday. Like I just see the public really coming
on this Jaguars team as the week goes along. Here
again it's it's Davis Mills, Like I get it, like
there should be a great spot for this Jaguars team,
and we love Houston defense. They can only do so much,
(21:25):
like we say, all the time. So I'm like you,
I still like Houston. I'm gonna be patient here, get
a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people.
You can get two and a half right now, key number.
I'm gonna grab down Houston.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
A lot of.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
The numbers are moving against us.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
I just don't want to take bad numbers here and
when we can get it looks like we're gonna get
some good numbers this weekend, right.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
So if you can get I would say, you can
get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and
a half. I don't know that it'll go to three.
At some point, there's going to be like an aggressive
amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised as getting
as high as it is, knowing that most of the
people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and
(22:12):
we're just waiting for it to get to that number.
So the fact that it's still going up, what is
that saying to me?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Right now?
Speaker 3 (22:22):
What do you mean the some pro promo pro money's
in this Jaguars side. I know well that you know
it's okay.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
It's a little bit nerve wracking.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I like it when we're all when we're all aligned,
when everyone's together, it's like a group sweat.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
New England at Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
There we go, finally some good games.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite.
This was Chad's choice. I got to tell you, I'm
a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half
point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets
are on the box, even more money is on the Bucks,
and so that tells me that there is some wise
(23:06):
guy I love for Tampa Bay despite what we talked
about in sharp calls, and I kind of don't get it.
Like the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker
is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him.
We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their
(23:27):
offensive aligned could be improved. We know there's going to
be a lot of passing in this game. Fine, but
I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home.
I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading
the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on
the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other
(23:49):
side here, unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are
going to be the ones that we love.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Ye alone too. I'm just people be cautious here.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
It actually has said three a couple of times this week,
and it's been bed away very quickly. So there is
some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So
it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this
will be a close game, where me and you are
betting that this won't be honestly, because we're taking two
and a half here. We know the deal with Baker,
right Like, he wins close games, usually by a field
(24:21):
goal at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
Again, like, I'm like you, I can't believe we're getting
away with this.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
It feels like a very very nice number with a
quarterback that tends to play close games under.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
A field goal.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
So I get where the pros are coming from. I
get their position on this New England team. They've been
riding them a lot this season, they've been paying them out.
This is another true test spot for New England, right, Like,
this is a game where I think we're on alignment,
Like they should get rolled here.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
A lot of questions.
Speaker 4 (24:47):
About the health this Bucks team, Like Chad said, we
don't know you have Bucky Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still
hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces
to all pros to that offense that they need in
this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when
they get cleared, the number does move.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
Maybe that's what's holding up the lot line moving here.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
But yeah, just breaking this one down even you know,
not just gonna give Will Campbell too hard of a
time last week because you're going to again smiles Garrett
or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got
embarrassed last week against Atlanta, like Atlanta's line got a
ton of pressure against his doingland front. You expect the
Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know,
should get pressure against Drake Man. We've seen him kind
(25:29):
of that's the only thing that really struggles with when
he can't do what he's so great at, which is
getting outside the pocket and uses like as running.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
For ten yards.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle.
And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do.
I mean, I'm an ertzk I'm a huge hurts guy.
Every time hers struggles against this Bulls defense. It's because
he bottles over the five in the front. So I'm
with you, Chad. It's we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can,
I'll get more info and maybe I guy talk this
out of it. But as we say to it right now,
(25:56):
I bet heavily into the bucks. I love the Bucks.
I think it's a great number. And I think this
Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued,
and I think they're are valued here. There's probably should
be three and a half. It's two and a half.
Come on, we can't avoid this one.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
It's too good Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be
in the final five. It's going to be hard to
keep them out.
Speaker 4 (26:15):
That's oh my god. We'll see what I talked about
this weekend. Because I'm like, if I have a really
smart group being like day, this is a pay this
is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay,
maybe I can talk to it, but I'm so bet
into it, so are you. I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
I just cannot I can't see it not being one
of our five.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
You and I are the really smart group. That's the ballgame.
You and I are the smart group. They should be
worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should
be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad
choice this week and Simon is bet into it. Like
we got to rethink that's how it should go here.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
But you know the issue, it's us, there's public, the pros, everybody,
all of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a
couple of really smart guys, and like you said, this
number is hitting so much resistance at three.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
I'm just making sure we're.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
Not missing something here because it's interesting, like you said,
this has not gone to three.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself, all that, all
that alphatak aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what,
I'm not shocked about that we're talking about Arizona as
a six and a half point underdog at Seattle, and
that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as
six and a half point underdogs.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Our brass balls better the week.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
We got what we wanted.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Jacoby Brissett is starting and in what has to be
the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor
of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press
conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're
(28:06):
benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing
this because Jacoby Brissett was continuing to perform well and
there was also issues with Kyler Murray in.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
The health bucket.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissett
is playing well and it's better for the offense to
be able to plan with consistency over the course of
the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on ir
to quote be able to focus on his rehab, which
leads to the question what has he been doing. He
hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus
(28:47):
harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this
and this was really telling, The Arizona Republic wrote, for
the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not
the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The under lying
meaning there is that Jacoby Brissett is the number one
QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can
read into it any way you want about him going
(29:09):
on IR. That could just be all right, We're going
to take some of the pressure off of this conversation.
But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said,
Brissett is going to give us the best chance.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
We're going with Brissett. That's interesting to me.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Now the question becomes are we stepping in it with
the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Because is it?
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Does it become too public to go with a dog
that just came off a big win with a quarterback
we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Yeah, I have some good stats to go against that,
and I will say that Kylier' stuff. I was taken
back by it. I can't believe they went this route,
but it makes sense because what we talked about how
much better the team has looked so much better with
Brisett running the offense, and the fact that if you
do put him in the spot right, put him on
IR maybe does save a little face and saves a
little bit of trade value for you for trying to
(30:02):
get rid of him in the offseason. And I think
anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler
was practicing like he was running around out there. He
was good enough to take reps as if he was
going to play last week.
Speaker 3 (30:15):
He clearly not didn't have some type of stepback unless
we missed it right.
Speaker 4 (30:18):
They know more than we do. It's the team inside
the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event.
I saw Kyler Murray. I believe he's twenty eight years old.
Still not too late.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
Brother, Go back to MLB, Go get them, see if
you can make a career out of it. It's crazy.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out
of high school and just shows how football it's so mental.
And he never, to me ever got that aspect down.
Was never right mentally all the time in the world.
I mean, I will always remember that play against the Raiders.
I think it was a two point conversion. He ran
around the backfield for about twenty seconds and I think
it was like a total of like eighty yards. He scrampled, yeah, yeah,
(30:58):
and put it right back in the end for the
two pointers. So brutal, brutal, brual end to that saga.
But for this game, let's just look at Okay, like
Chad said, isn't this a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
It's a team that won outright, on the road as
a dog on Monday night.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
It's actually not terrible statistically, and the next game is
an underdog. They're nine and seven straight up, ten and
six against the spread since two thousand, it's not terrible.
So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now,
this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals.
I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy chat and
(31:36):
very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these
two quarterbacks weren't even know all these teams when all
this one down. But since twenty twenty twenty two, Seahawks
eight and oh straight up seven to one against the
spread against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in
this division, which again we say the time that that
does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find
some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want
(31:58):
to be on.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
It's a lot of Seahawks love here.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
Yeah, let's find some some bias here. Let's find a
way to make a start.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
Yeah yeah, well, just because it feels like this is
a great number for the Cardinal team.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
Because I let's let's fit.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Some Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and
what we want to do.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Every week, they've been undervalued.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
So they lost to Tennessee as a seven and a
half point favorite with Kyler. The next week they were
at the Colts, he was an eight and a half
point dog. What they lose by four or five points
in that game. The following week they are seven point
doll to Green Bay at home. They lose that game
by four points, and then we just saw with Dabas
there were three and a half points. So to me,
the book keeps Undervaluabersett. That's why it's been hitting. So
(32:39):
I was like, Okay, what kind of numbers do we
have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle
on a short week, which I think that favors the
type of quarterback per set is a veteran quarterback that
just seems like he's totally rhythm with this offense. This
is pretty wild since twenty twenty one teams in this
exact spot heading to Seattle on a short week there's
seven and one straight up and against the spread. So
(33:00):
we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home
field advantage, right like we all think back to the
Legion of Doom, but these last couple of years has
not been so. And then even this year, I've already
gave up those stats. They lost to the forty Anders
and week went at home, Okay, we threw that one out.
Their defense gave up thirty eight points to thirty five
points to Baker at home against Tampa, like it's just
(33:22):
night and day. There's road splits are insane, how much
dominant their defenses and offenses on the road. So I
just like this one on a cell point for the
Seattle team. So me and Chad loves to plus six
and a half people, I think this will keep moving
as well.
Speaker 3 (33:35):
Like I said the book, the publics they keep.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
Undervaluing per set, so I can easily set in this
get up to seven. Just like last week we talked,
I like the Cardinals there plus two and a half.
I said, if you're if you're a patient, this will
get the three against Dallas, I got up to three
and a half. Because again people just do not believe
in Brussette. So look at the splits right now. Eighty
percent of the money, eighty percent of the bets right
now are on Seattle. So I just I think.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
We'll get to seven. We're giving it out right now.
Speaker 4 (34:01):
It's six and a half a hard rock I love
this bet, I love this spot, and yeah, it's always
a little scary ben again to arguably the best team,
hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But
we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we
think this team is overvalued right now.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think
it's gonna get there.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
This one.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one
feels like it's it's trending in that way. There doesn't
seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers, and maybe
they know they'll get it when it gets to seven.
So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I
love it. If I'm not gonna get the six and
a half, if I'm not gonna get the seven, I'll
(34:39):
bet the six and a half.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
But I'm definitely waiting on the.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Second to get There's two sevens right now in Jersey,
so there's gonna be sevens are gonna start popping eventually.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
All right, so let's get that seven, all right? Quick
quick quick word.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
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The Los Angeles Rams are bid are visiting the San
Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
The line right now is four.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
On Sunday, it was three on Tuesday, it was three
and a half. It's four at hard Rock, Honestly, it's
four and a half almost everywhere else, like the book
makers are telling us screw off, go ahead and bet
the Niners.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
We dare you.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much
closer split on the betting percentages meaning the number of
tickets between each side, than I am on the money,
which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know,
you said in sharp calls, whise guys have come in
on the Rams. My question is, was that all at
(37:30):
three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people
like the Niners at four and a half. What's our
opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes
me scared.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, I was a little as it in here because
we talked.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
I took a position on the Rams minus three, and
I said, once I got a three and a half,
I want to been the.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
Four nine ers.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
And I was completely wrong, obviously missed it. Like you said,
it's been met up now to four to four and
a half. It is more of a mac Jones kind
of thing where maybe the line reflects that party will
be out another week. And this is kind of settling
into what a mac Jones line is, which is four
four and a half, which seems fair to me. And
you know when you want to dive into this game,
(38:14):
I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into head coaches, right,
because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing. But
when you really get to the basis of it, it's
two of the best offensive mines in all football going
incase each other. And it does make a difference where
you know which one is the underdog, and that tends
to be the one I usually take my position on,
So just dive in this matchup. I believe this is
(38:36):
the eighteenth time these two guys have met up and
matched in this type of game. Shanean obviously he's done
best in this matchup. He's eleven and seven against the
spread his exact games. But what I thought it was
so interesting was diving into what is mcveighman as a favorite,
because that, to me, isn't that terrible eleven and seven.
I thought it was honestly more because it seems like
Shanneon owns them so as a favorite with Stafford McVeigh
(39:00):
three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan,
and that's including this year where they lost outright at
home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that
Thursday night game, we talk all the time Thursday Night
are weird games like stuff like that can just happen.
But it's even more so worrying that this game is
on the road now and McVeigh on the road against
(39:21):
Shannan as a favorite. He's one in three straight up
and against the spread at this exact spot. So the
numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with
McVeigh here, and then you dive into even further when
he's on the road straight up in his career against
you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've
played this exact game. He's won in seven McVeigh. So
(39:44):
you just struggled mightily against Shannan on the road in
these type of games. And you could say, well, that's
kind of flicky because look at all the different quarterbacks
through all the years. And that's my whole point though,
it's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same.
So I I liked this a lot for this forty
nine ers team, And the only hesitation I have is
(40:05):
instead I gave out that I want to keep hammering
home about this team. They cannot handle success, they can't
handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said
you had to bet Houston against the forty nine and
one of those stupid stats I gave up that's still held.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
True since Christmas of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
This is from our guy Evan forty nine ers one
in fourteen against the spread after a straight up win,
one in fourteen. So it's like this insane pattern. Even
more so, they're oh and three straight up after a
win when they're a dog in the next game. So
they're oh and three against the spread and straight up
as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And
(40:44):
this is just a weird thing where whatever it is,
this team doesn't handle the wins and they get over
valued by the books and they have a letdown. So
that to me might be the reason these pros are
coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it.
It's like every time this fourgners team has a big win,
especially on the road, they've come home they've laid total eggs.
And that's happened a couple of times already this season.
(41:06):
So I really do like the Niners here getting im
probably talking myself off of it, but I'm not going
to force it in at four. I won't take it,
but at four and a half, I'm taking forty nine
ers there once. Once you get across that key number
a four and a half, I have to take it,
especially where all those trends show mc veigh's struggles on
the road against Shanahan and this exact spot as a favorite.
(41:26):
When people are under you, under betting or not believing
the Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
Listen to me, Listen, don't talk yourself out of it.
The Niners are the right side here, last fourteen games
in this rivalry, the favorite one to thirteen.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Against the spread. Wow, the Niners are the side.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
We knew it on Tuesday. It's to me, the line
is moving not because of the trendsit. It's moving because
of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and
they're moving. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense,
which has really become a lead. And if you're looking
at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners
(42:13):
have is to get the ball into McCaffrey's hands thirty
five times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has
been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
Him to do.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
The number is way too big. It just it shouldn't
be four and a half points. And so that's the
side simon. You and I we have confidence niners. Niners
are the side no fear. I don't care what anyone
else is saying. Here's one of them that I do
(42:46):
have some concerns. This one is at two and a half.
It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's
actually it was a two and a half, it's moved
down a bit to two. You and I both talked
about it on Sunday at two and a half. You
said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the
(43:06):
Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to
get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game,
and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is
going to end.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
But like shutdowns, could this be.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
The moment when it's two massive fan bases that are,
you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV
giant to its knees? Man Tricky, I don't think you
mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going
(43:46):
to go with the Packers.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
I am too.
Speaker 4 (43:49):
I didn't mention it much because it is a little split,
but I would say, obviously most pros are on Green Bay.
But when I dove back into why my model had
this so off, like I said, I think I had
it at green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker
Craft and what he means this Green Bay team and
how big of a loss that is for this offense.
(44:11):
But I can't get over how great of a spot
this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a
stronger opinion comes today morning, I can give talk more
about There's this other games I've bet more into.
Speaker 3 (44:20):
I just don't know what to do with this one.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
It's another game where it might be in the twenties,
might be a little snowy on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (44:26):
This could be affected by the weather.
Speaker 4 (44:28):
And you know, if there's no Golden the Rooki receiver,
and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be
an issue, right, Like a passing attack needs its weapons,
especially the team like Green Bay with the it's just
an unnamed receiving core. Right, it's a rotation of guys.
Now you're taking away the number one tight end and
the number two receiver. That's got to effect jord Love
at some aspects. So yeah, for me, I'm still betting
(44:51):
at Green Bay, especially at minus two, but I don't
feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday
night or let alone on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (44:58):
I don't feel as strongly about it either.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
I think there's been a lot of movement this week
that has made me feel better about games like the
nine Ers. I'm still bought into the box, the Cardinals,
the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we
like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting
to find consensus on a bunch of games.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I don't know how you've missed Miami.
Speaker 1 (45:20):
On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being
the side.
Speaker 4 (45:24):
Yeah it that's how you should know. It's the right
that's the right bet for us and probably should.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Be one of our five comes Sunday. All right, let
me let me hit you some numbers.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Talk me into it. Hold on here, but talk me
into it.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
Give me the numbers, but then tell me your hypothesis
for the game.
Speaker 4 (45:42):
I just love this running matchup. I think against his
Bill's defense favors it's Miami team a lot of ways.
Speaker 3 (45:47):
And it's also a unique spot.
Speaker 4 (45:49):
Whether it's Tua at home with a big number, who
always covers for us in this exact spot, except.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Against the Ravens Thursday night, like a weekd that.
Speaker 4 (45:59):
Was different though that wasn't a midday in the sun
type of game. That was a primetime late game. Look,
we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying
not to.
Speaker 3 (46:06):
Let that affect us in this game. Here, I'll hit
you with the numbers real quick.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
All right, hit me with the numbers, Josh.
Speaker 3 (46:12):
All, let's start with him, the Goat.
Speaker 4 (46:15):
We all know how great he is, but on the
road is more than a touchdown favorite.
Speaker 3 (46:20):
I think we could both agree.
Speaker 4 (46:21):
It feels like he's not that great, And when you
dive into the numbers, it proves out he's two and
six against the Spring in his career on the road
as a seven a half point favorite or more.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, Well, let's dive
into some more.
Speaker 4 (46:34):
Dolphins got blown out last week, right, they were a
dog of seven points or more. They lost by twenty
points or more last week in this exact spot. Those
type of teams and a bounce back spot fifteen and
seven against the spread. So look, we already knew it's
gonna be a by low on this Dolphins team because
they just got embarrassed and blown out.
Speaker 1 (46:54):
But every week, every week is by low on the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (46:58):
Now, I mean we high last week after they blew
out Atlanta. That was again that was on us. We
should that we misread that one two of this week,
he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back,
So his second home stand game, which you know we
always talk we love to at home or indoors in
controlled environments, to a at home in this exact spot,
(47:20):
So his second straight home game in his career. He's
ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.
Oh but Chad, what's you like as an underdog in
this exact spot?
Speaker 2 (47:29):
Oh, Tony Simon three and oh.
Speaker 4 (47:31):
Straight up and against the spread, and this exact spot
to at home and the back to back game as
an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like,
is there more stats I can pull from the good
chat to try to flip on this one? I got
another one for you to at home twenty six and
eleven straight up, and when they lose and they have
(47:53):
a following game again at home. He is three and
oh straight up and against the spread, covering those games
by fifteen points per game. That's and insanes that he
basically if he gets embarrassed or lose at home, he's
dominating that second.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Game at home.
Speaker 4 (48:09):
And we talked, we just we've been profitable betting to
it at home in that hot sun whatever it is,
all the new shoe and the naonce it's true, like
teams get burned out, they wear on. Tool always comes
back and covers these big spreads in the second half
at him. So I just wanted to bring that game
up as a game you're going to need to take
a little closer look at I'm betting into it. I
don't feel great about slamming the table about Tua and
(48:31):
this Miami team, but this is a great matchup for
their offense, and I think defensively as great as Josh
Allen is and that offense is Cook is banged up.
He's been on the injury report this week and he's
not been practicing. I think I'll be interesting if their
number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami
doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook
is like a top five, top ten running back of
football right now. So that's another reason I think this
(48:53):
numbers dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public
or professional level. I've honestly found this Miami team. It's
just us, buddy, and that makes me love it even more.
Everyone's left them for dead. And this the exact spot
we got to be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I
know we need to get out of here. I'll be
quick on the next one Detroit. The pros are all
over this Washingt team. This number has been bet down
(49:14):
now to seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (49:16):
I get it.
Speaker 4 (49:17):
I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot
once again. But I have to trust Campbell, just like
I did last week, Campbell and Golf on these spots.
Speaker 3 (49:26):
I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.
You talk about pressure.
Speaker 2 (49:29):
We living pressure.
Speaker 3 (49:31):
That's what we freaking thrive.
Speaker 2 (49:32):
You did it again. You always find a way to win.
We're testing for this.
Speaker 3 (49:36):
Just stay the course.
Speaker 4 (49:38):
I've been betting it for so long, We've been making
money off for so long.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
What do we do here?
Speaker 4 (49:41):
We're trying to go against our instinct here, and I
know it's the very public side. It's probably the most
public side of the week. So maybe that's how we
all avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can tuck
ourselves out of it. But Golf and Campbell after a
straight up loss twenty one to eight against the spread,
like it's just what they do. They are on a
twelve game covering streak after losing the previous game right now,
(50:03):
So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered
the flying game for twelve straight times. So I just
wanted to bringing them up real quick. I know that
I'm gonna get a ton of shit from a lot
of pros this upcoming week at the book. You know,
I'm on this public side once again because again they're
taking a victory lap in the Vikings. They were totally right,
tertoughly terrible read by me.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
I do worry They've got a lot of developing injuries
in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is
impacting their ability to block and.
Speaker 2 (50:33):
Their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.
I love Detroit.
Speaker 1 (50:37):
Last week too, they were Chad's choice as a big
number against the Vikings because I had no faith in
JJ McCarthy and I had all the faith in the
Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against Minnesota Vikings
rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The
problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we
saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that
(50:58):
allows them to get to a position on third down
where they can execute. You could say that they will
do better against the Commanders in this spot because their
defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having
offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line.
So I think that has as much do with sort
of this line moving from what was it eight and
a half to eight down to seven and a half
as it does with fading the Lions overall because of
(51:21):
what happened last week.
Speaker 4 (51:24):
Yeah, the biggest thing winning back Detrait this year. It's
very simple when you dive into numbers. They are at
twenty fifth and third down conversion rate and their eighteenth
and first downs but can't convert.
Speaker 3 (51:35):
They can't, but this is the definition.
Speaker 4 (51:37):
But get right where they're playing a defense at in
red zone efficency, they're twenty seventh in the league. They
are giving up their thirtieth in yards per play defensively,
they are their twenty ninth and giving up the most
passing yards in the league, and they're twenty third against
the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't
get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right, maybe
I'll swear them off for good.
Speaker 3 (51:58):
And as honest as I can, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (52:02):
I really don't even know how to respond to that,
you know, I mean, I'm shocked by.
Speaker 2 (52:07):
That Steelers visiting their Chargers.
Speaker 1 (52:10):
The game was three and a half on Sunday, it's
moved down to three. We liked it a lot at
three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from
the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to
me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game
in LA where the Steelers travel, and it's going to
feel like you're, you know.
Speaker 2 (52:30):
Back at the old three Rivers. When you're playing you not.
Speaker 3 (52:33):
Get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just
do not get this Chargers love.
Speaker 4 (52:37):
So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on
because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting
a dog here against a team that should not be
favored against this defensive front, and you know, one takeaway
could be this defense played over seventy snaps against that
cold Steam last week, and that's not a pushover Colts team.
That's a big, physical, really tough Colts team that that
could affect this Pittsburgh defense in But it's already been
(53:00):
a year of very up and down play, right.
Speaker 3 (53:02):
We joked about it.
Speaker 4 (53:03):
They need five turnovers per game to steal these type
of games. So that's the weird here. But the one
that really jumped out to me about a couple of
people send me this stat about just Herbert and how
great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking,
just because it feels like before Harwall got there, they
were just so terrible, this Chargers team, and they just
did have no coaching. But he's actually in a five
game ATS streak winning night games. I think the only
(53:26):
one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs
game to start the year. I know that was a
night game for a fact, when they played down in Brazil.
In his career, Herbert sixteen and nine against the spread,
covering by three and a half points per game. And
this is exact night games type of game. So there's
a lot to like them here. As a favorite. He's
ten and three straight up in these type of games.
(53:47):
I just wanted to bring it up just because we're
just we're so in love with the Steelers. I want
to talk about the other side, why people might like
the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back.
Speaker 3 (53:55):
But I'm with Chad.
Speaker 4 (53:57):
I just can't get to the fact that losing Joe
Alt this this offensive front, him having no time. They
can't set up a run game either, because they can't
run block either. It's just it just feels so negative
for the Chargers team. On the flip side, I just
love Pittsburgh, So maybe again I can avoid it because
I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense seventy snaps now,
short week on the road. That's a tough spot to
(54:18):
put this defense is. But just man, what am I
grabbing here with this Chargers team. Other than Herbert, It
just feels like a lost bet.
Speaker 1 (54:25):
Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing
it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco.
I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking
about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver.
I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I
(54:46):
know Miami is going to be in the conversation because
I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily,
you're feeling strongly about it. So and maybe green Bay,
well we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think
Detroit's gonna make it I don't know if the Steelers
will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll
talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the
(55:08):
games to me again, Denver, which we both love Tonight
Thursday night, the Jets plus two and a half, the
Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls,
the Niners plus four and a half, Miami plus nine
and a half feel like the leading contender.
Speaker 2 (55:25):
Simon, give me your biggest bets.
Speaker 3 (55:26):
Pull up those pants and be a man. Obviously, people
know love Denver. Tonight.
Speaker 4 (55:32):
I'm gonna have a lot of money tied to them Dolphins,
but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into and
you know a lot of these gamers waiting positions like
forty nine ers probably going to pen as a bigger
bet seeing with the Cardinals just waiting to get better
numbers on those games.
Speaker 1 (55:48):
Last week underdog parlay and Favorites parlay. We are leaning
into favorites so much more. We ended up having to
do both sides of games, which we don't love doing.
So Mitchell suggestion, I think your suggestion, and we'll three.
Let's do three for the underdog parlay.
Speaker 4 (56:07):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog.
Speaker 3 (56:11):
Blocks mo Dog. Jets plus one ten.
Speaker 1 (56:14):
I was just going to say, Jets have to be
in there. Texans le see, yeah, I like that.
Speaker 2 (56:22):
Niners I like that all right.
Speaker 1 (56:24):
Underdog money line parlay Round Robin Jets, Houston, Niners. Favorites
Panthers Panthers, Lions.
Speaker 3 (56:41):
Panthers, Lions, Ravens.
Speaker 2 (56:43):
Ravens for sure. We're all in on the bucks either way.
Speaker 3 (56:49):
Yeah, that's true, that's true. Bears are yeah. Ten.
Speaker 2 (56:54):
Let's do the Bears, Bears, Let's do the Bears.
Speaker 3 (56:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (56:57):
I'd already forgotten about the.
Speaker 3 (56:58):
Bears survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week.
Speaker 4 (57:03):
I unfortunately to use the lines, God, I can't believe
I'm doing it. Panthers, Wow, I know, my God, I
gotta do it though. It's it's that kind of it's
it's that year where you guys start getting into.
Speaker 3 (57:20):
The other teams that win each week. So I'm gonna
go Panthers.
Speaker 2 (57:23):
All right, Sharp versus Square? We both lost last week?
Would you like to go first? You you had the
Chargers last week I had the Jacks.
Speaker 3 (57:32):
Oh, I guess I'll flip the last week.
Speaker 4 (57:33):
I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite.
Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.
Speaker 1 (57:39):
Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more
confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you.
Speaker 3 (57:46):
That that's scary.
Speaker 2 (57:48):
I'll go to San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (57:50):
Here you go. What number? Are you taking four and
a half for.
Speaker 2 (57:53):
Four and a half and you're taking Miami plus nine
and a half?
Speaker 3 (57:56):
Let's go right?
Speaker 2 (57:57):
Yeah, all right, all right. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 1 (58:03):
We will be back. I'm Sharper Square on YouTube on
Sunday morning. As you easdrop on our intimate conversation, we
will panic, make human decisions.
Speaker 2 (58:13):
Regret the rest of the day.
Speaker 1 (58:15):
We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
point thirty ish pm to recap all the misery watcher Listen,
I'm Sharper Square YouTube, like and subscribe. You can also
download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, where you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, state whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (58:31):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you.
Speaker 3 (58:35):
Hey, let's recare for
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock That.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
This is the show that makes the squares sharper and
makes the wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chad Milman, I am.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Joined as always buy my BFF, my companion, Mike Campadre,
my co host, Professional Better Sigmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hello, Simon, Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Are we doing?
Speaker 1 (00:24):
I don't feel like I got English enough on that.
Heedo soymon A's beat.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
There you go, dude. There is so much.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
News impacting the lines since the trade deadline, and there's
also just been general massive line movement overall since we
did our show on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Freaking wild, absolutely freaking wild.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
I don't know if you've got any deep deep thoughts
on that. Let's hold them because I want to hear
what the wise guys have to say in sharp calls.
This is our Thursday, Week ten episode. We're going to
narrow down the options on the five picks we like
the best. We're going to inch our way closer. Subscribe
to Sharper Square on YouTube, Apple Pods, Spotify. Let's get
into this thing. Every week, you know what we do.
(01:09):
We are going to hear from Simon's fellow professional betters
on all the conversations we had on Tuesday, they've always
got opinions. I have no doubt they'll have a lot
of things to say about what we discussed.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Let's get too sharp, calls.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
Hal answer, it's foot all.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Right, rain range, telephone range. Somebody said, maybe what you do.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
Man, Yeah, let's start where you guys are on the
opposite of us, which you know I always always love
here on the other side. And the one that really
jumped out was the Chargers. Hearing a lot of love
from the pros on the Chargers, maybe we're suckers. I
just can't get over again. Plus three here. I just
that's gonna be a fun one to break down.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Some Yeah we're gonna that's the Chargers Steelers game, and yeah,
we're definitely gonna discuss that one.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
So good.
Speaker 4 (02:03):
But yeah, a lot of pros love the Chargers, Big Chargers,
Chargers spot. I guess let's start with the Rams as well.
A lot of pros I talked to Tuck Rams money
shocked by that one. Commanders was a big talking point
this week. I definitely remember us, or at least myself.
I like Detroit. I still do. I'm happy they're betting
(02:25):
it down. That's a fun one. We can break down
some more. Patriots, couldn't believe it. A lot of love
from the Patriots. I once again, I'm dug in. I like,
really like Tampa. Starting to love it even more as
I see the injury report and what guys are healthy
for this Tampa team. So pretty interesting how much love
there is for this Patriots side and the sides we
agree on. Chad, we already knew Jets that was gonna
(02:48):
be a pro side. Yeah, it's it's fluctuated the numbers
since the trade deadline.
Speaker 3 (02:53):
That's gonna be a fun one to break down. Miami.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Tons of love from the pros. Tons of love for Houston.
I'm going against the pros here. I didn't even mention
it the Raiders. Talk to some pros that really like
that one again. Another game I'll hold steady fast and
I really like Denver in that spot and the last
one that shocked me. Tons of love for the pros
on this Bear side game that I feel like we
were kind of on the other side of it.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Yeah, talk that we.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Kind of like the Giants. I'll give you some reasons
why they liked that Bear side.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
If we break that game down later.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Oh, we're going to break it down because it's one
of the games that I was thinking about, and it
was in contention for brass Balls because that number has
moved quite a bit and I haven't been able to
figure out why other than professional money coming in on
the Bears in this spot. So you also mentioned another
game that I've been getting more and more nervous about,
which is The Box, because I cannot figure out how
(03:44):
that line hasn't moved from two and a half to
three yet. So some pushback from the Wise guys is
probably why. But first let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously,
it's our Thursday show, so a lot of people might
not hear. I might not hear the show until after
the game. You're getting some feedback from the professionals on
(04:06):
the Raiders' side. We both love Denver and like this
wasn't even a question. We actually were debating if Denver
was going to be Simon Says or Chat's choice because
we both liked it so much. We liked it at
eight and a half, it's now at nine and a half.
I don't know what the Wise guys are seeing in
the Raiders. You can't take anything from that game against
(04:28):
a Jags team that lost their best pass rusher because
he tried to punch a guy in the face, and
you're still playing against a not very good defense. Brock
Bauers was wide open every game. I mean, every play.
Isn't all this stuff that Broncos can account for in
a short week in a game the Raiders went to
(04:49):
a full overtime and they're not a very good team.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
I don't get it. I don't get it.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, I think mister White, guys I talked to, they
just don't trust, you know, a quarter about like bow
Knicks to be this big of a favorite in a
divisional game, especially if you look at the history of Denver, right,
And this is the hardest part too, because to me,
it's a lot of it's irrelevant the history of Denver
before Champagne took over. But they have not won against
a divisional opponent in our primetime game since like twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Okay, doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
That was my exact pushback. It's like, well, if you
look at those teams from those years, they were bad,
They had bad coaches, they just weren't good, and they've
been in a really competitive, tough division all throughout those years.
So that makes sense though why they'd push back because
it is technically a huge number in a divisional game in.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
A short week. But I already gave it out.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
I gave out that overtime stat, which to me is
just makes so much sense, and it was actually wrong.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
I thought it was three and twenty three.
Speaker 4 (05:47):
I forgot last year the Bears and this exact spot
actually won uncovered or covered last year against the Lions.
Remember that insanely fluky game on Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
Yeah, dude, where the Lions should have been up seventy
two to nothing in the first half, and.
Speaker 4 (06:02):
Then even then they're up twenty one nothing or twenty
one to three the first half, and somehow Bears came
back and covered really late. So you know, I'm not
gonna get pushed off this one. I get where they're
coming from, and I'm with you. I just think defensively, schematically,
they can take away bowers and then what are you
going to do as an offense, Like, I know they're
trying to establish a run, but it just now has
(06:22):
been working. Chip Kelly whatever he's going to do. It's
not been working with that run game and Gino.
Speaker 3 (06:26):
I still think.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Even in that game, as good as he looked, he
still had so many horrible throws, so much questionable moving
with his feet, and it's just a really tough spot.
Offs We talked about it being on a short week
here on the road against the Denver team that you know,
we put it as one of the best teams in
all football, like we're respecting that way defensively, especially, so
I know it's a lot to swallow bow nixt year,
(06:49):
but I can't get away from it.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
Cha.
Speaker 4 (06:50):
I really like it, And I don't know, maybe we
do put in the contest multiple figure it out because
there are five games I like this week. But people
know I really love this game. I love this matchup.
First half, full game, Debra, I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
All over it.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Yeah, same, same, same, not shame, same. Maybe we'll be shamed,
but I don't think so. This was one like coming
out of my one in four malaise. This is one
of the games that made me start to feel like, Okay,
I can see it, I have clarity, I'm feeling confident,
felt good about this one.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
God we need it. We cannot start the week O one.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Dude, we freaking need it, as Bob Scuccy, our old
friend Bob Scuccy like to say, we need this for
our lungs. We are underwater, all right, New York Giants
at the Chicago Bears. This line, it.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Blew up over the last forty eight hours.
Speaker 1 (07:44):
It got up to four and a half. It's down
to four at hard Rock. We've talked about hard Rock.
It's a sharp book, so that gives communication of what
the wise guys think when this line got to four
and a half.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
But they also love the Bears at three.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
They love the Bears at three and a half, and
some pushed it up too, from four to four and
a half. I started to see the Giants and I
talked about this on Tuesday. The Bears run defense is
so bad, and I mean not their run defense. Their
past defense is so bad, and their secondary is so bad.
(08:17):
You could see how Jackson Dark could have a lot
of success against the Bears and a defense that, by
the way, has not been able to hold anybody under
a twenty five point game. I'm exaggerating, but that's basically
the line of demarcation here. Unless they were committing forcing
(08:38):
a bunch of turnovers. They won with the Commander. They
went against the Commanders because of a bad handoff that
got them to win. In that primetime game against Jayden Daniels,
they beat the Cowboys because of a bunch of turnovers.
They beat the Saints, which still came close to covering
because of a bunch of turnovers. Every other game they've had,
it's going down to the wire and it's close, and
(08:59):
they're winning because there's something fluky happening, and because Ben
Johnson is a miracle, not because this team is very good.
So four and a half just feels like too many points.
I'm surprised to hear the wise guys say they're liking
the Bears here.
Speaker 4 (09:16):
Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to join on me at Chad,
I if you really don't like a side here, I
think there is still a value on the total. Total
is down to forty six and a half, and all
the reason behind this movement, to me is because of
the weather. People like, we're tracking models, you're getting some info,
and right now a bunch of different models are predicting
(09:36):
rain or snow and very cold temperature in this matchup,
which to me favors this Bears team that wants to
run the ball heavily and has one of the best
run schemes off football against the defense that is really bad.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Giants are bottom thirty in the league.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
They're they're the worst, are they now?
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, so the Bears.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Like, you're right, I'm just like, obviously, I have a
strong opinion about the Bears. Their run offense has been
so good and that is a major major factor against
this team. And the weather, you're right, could be it
just might play into the way Ben Johnson wants to
play this game. It'll give an excuse not to let
Kayleb Williams throw the ball.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, and again it's you can take these positions and
get out of it Sunday if this all blows over
and these models wire turarly off, but you know they're
shooting pretty accurate. Two three days out here, the line
has come down from forty nine to forty six and
a half. They'll let you know. The books are getting
really really respected money heavily towards the under. But you're
looking at the splits right now, it's still mostly towards
(10:40):
the over. I mean, the tickets and the money say
towards the over. At the public obviously, like we talked about,
they're going to be on this Bears team, Like, no
one's going to be trusting the Giants right now, like
what we talked about, right That's why we kind of
like this the Ghiants team. This feels like a good
spot for them, playing against an inflated Bears team that
got really lucky. They covered all those for those people
last week, and those people are coming back now hitting
(11:03):
the Bears again.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So I'm like you, I wanted to be on the Giants.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Were shocked to hear the professionals were taking these heavy
positions on the Bears, and now you dive into it
and see what the weather could be like, this just
feels are a great spot for the Bear scene. Compared
to a young rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart who already
has fumbling issues now playing in bad element weather, I
don't know. I just I can't get there the Giants
if I know that's scenario. So yeah, just if you
(11:27):
wantn't want to take as side here, I still think
the underreas value on it.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
I hate the Bears in this spot.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
I know it's such a Giants number, it's brutal.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Such a giant's number. I'm gonna wait. I'm just waiting.
I don't think it's going to get to five. But
I'd rather just see the weather and know what I'm
betting into on Sunday. I don't have to bet this one,
So for me, I'm gonna wait. New Orleans at Carolina.
Carolina is a five point favorite. Five and a half,
(12:01):
move to five, still five at hard Rock, five and
a half in a lot of other places. I want
to say play the number, but the truth is, like
this number home or road Division dogs of five plus points,
It's basically a fifty to fifty proposition. So if you're
(12:23):
looking at it from that point of view, there is
no real edge in terms of historical precedent. Caroline at
home is great. The Russian game is great. They're really confident.
The Saints are not. They might not have an NFL
quarterback on their roster.
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Yeah, the number just spooks you. It sews me too.
Speaker 4 (12:49):
I'll probably end up just taking a large position with
Carolina on the money line and just avoid this game
if I can, because it does feel like it's mispriced,
and this is a great spot for this Carolina team
at home again, it's what we just said is just
a non existent offensive quarterback and could he show up
here and have a game of his life. Yeah, we've
(13:10):
seen that happen all the time. Right, these guys pop
for one game. But just as a betting man, I
love this number and working against the Panthers just the
issue of them being a favorite, right, I think they're
on a crazy streak. They're zero to ten as a favorite.
And that's a lot of bright young too. I think
he has three or four games mixed in there. So yeah,
I'm a game. I'm not basterly having into. It's just
I found other games this week I like a lot more.
(13:31):
But still on Carolina side, still taking the number at
minus five, but much more comfortable putting their money line
in it. Wow, it's up to the minus two forty five,
so people been hitting it. It was rest and yeah
it's been getting hit, this money line on the Panthers.
Speaker 1 (13:47):
You know a game that we are into and I
hate to say it, and maybe it's the sickos in us.
The Cleveland Browns are visiting the New York Jets on Tuesday.
When we started the show, the Jets I think were
two point favorites. It had gone up from one and
(14:09):
a half to two. During the show, the news broke
that Sauce Gardner was being traded to the Indianapolis Colts
for multiple picks. Later in the day, it was announced
that the Jets were trading Quinn Williams, their star defensive tackle,
to the Dallas Cowboys for multiple picks. Yesterday, it was
(14:32):
announced that Quincy Williams, the Jets starting linebacker Quinn's brother,
All Pro in twenty twenty three, was being benched for
lack of performance. We still don't know who the quarterback
is going to be for the New York Jets. On Sunday,
the New York Jets GM said that the Jets are
(14:54):
still trying to win. He knows how much those guys try.
We are st trying to win this season.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Quote.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Maybe he and Aaron Glenn are not in the same page,
because Aaron Glenn said yesterday, I said we would make
the fans proud. I didn't say it would be this season.
That gives you a lot of confidence. Here's the problem.
Here's the problem, Simon, You're ready. The line has moved
(15:28):
to Jets plus two at hard Rock plus two and
a half everywhere else and the fundamentals of this game
remained the same. It was never about the Jets defense.
It's about the Jets offense against the Browns defense. Because
we have zero expectations at Dylan Gabriel, whether he's playing
(15:49):
Quinn Williams or Sat Gardner, whoever else is going to
be playing in those positions, is not an NFL quarterback.
So we were betting when we liked the Jets the
other day against Dylan Gabriel. All why wouldn't we still
be betting against Dylan Gabriel. This is a massive move.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Yeah, a game though I needed to be Justin Field's Honestly,
I know it sounds stupid, but I like his matchup
a lot against this defensive front in the Cleveland and
Shockling his career. He does really well against these type
of defensive fronts when he plays a defensive front that's
you know, got a high sack rate about four percent.
(16:29):
He's four and two against the spreading his career, which
again doesn't sound great if you look at Justin Field's career,
It's probably the only positive ats Daddy has when.
Speaker 3 (16:37):
You really dive into it.
Speaker 4 (16:38):
He's just not a covering guy his whole career he's
just had a rough go of it, and looking at
this matchup, it really is kind of weird that the
public is so comfortable hammering this brown side even with
all the trades. Even before that we were talking on
our show, they were loving him then as a favorite,
I mean as an underdog. Now they're really still loving
(16:58):
him as a as a favorite. And this to me is
going to come down tons of pros, I know, professional groups.
When I come on the Jets, I mean again, I
get what we're doing it, but there I am also
a little weary of betting this one because we have
to remember these arghuman beings. How are they going to
respond to what just happened from their front office? Like
their front office basically just wave the white flag on
(17:21):
the season like they I agree with it too. I
mean some Jet fans are complaining. It's like, dude, you guys,
that was like our dream scenario. You dump two guys
that I don't want to say they're being overpaid, but
just they're not going to help you get to where
you need to be in the next two to three years.
You need to totally tear it down. So you know, Dallas,
horrible trade. In my opinion, Colt's very questionable. But you know,
(17:43):
for the Jets, I love the move. You're stocking up
in what should be really good drafts. Now to have
the front office to make the right picks, that's to
be determined. So just for this game chat, I like it.
It's really about the number though, this to me is
going to come down if you can still get the
plus two plus two and a half. You hear this,
I would take the position on the Jets once it
gets blowed the two. I don't know how much I'm
(18:04):
gonna be invested in here until I know exactly who
the quarterback is going to be, and if that is
in fact justin fields, we can re re enter this
one on Sunday morning. Talk about putting in the contest,
but you said it right now, I'm betting into the
two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Yeah, I am as well.
Speaker 1 (18:21):
The flip side of the team sort of being frustrated
is you guys get a chance to prove themselves in
a wide open situation and put on tape for somebody
for next season how well they can play.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
I just I never buy the fact that guys are
going to stop competing. When you're a professional athlete getting paid,
you want to stay in the league.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
This is your best chance to do it.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
There's gonna be a guy who's getting a chance to start,
a cornerback who hasn't a chance to do that.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Oh, I'm in Like on the like Breese Hall, Briesaw
had a foot out the door, was almost on the
Kansas City Chiefs. Kn't it wake up today? And he's
still on the Jets. That's got to be weird mentally,
Like yeah, and I'm sure you'll get it back. He's
a professional. I just think of all of those snares
like that, the guys on this team, you know, you're
so close to being on a winning team. Obviously not everybody.
(19:13):
I mean some guys went the Dallas. That's a that's
a tough trade, but you know, I just I thought
it was really interesting that they didn't move Brisoll because
they apparently wanted a third and then take a fourth
and it's like, what are you doing, Jets?
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Just sell it all, man, you're trying to lose here
and Bristol.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Again and some of it's back the Jets here. I
am so happy he's still on this team, they need
them offensively. He's by far their best weapon.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
Well look, the flip side is Brisall keeps showing how
good he is, and next year he just gets a
bigger deal from somebody. Yeah, so you know, so yeah,
I hate to say it, but we're kind of on
the Jets Jacksonville at Houston.
Speaker 2 (19:49):
Houston.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Look, on Tuesday we talked about wanting to wait on
this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog.
It's one at Hard rocked that one and a half
in a lot of other places.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
We're just betting on the defense.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
We're not betting on Davis Mills, who we would expect
Davis Mills is going to be a little bit better
because I mean, obviously he has limitations, but he's got
a full week of practice. He's not coming in and
then end at the beginning of the second quarter any
game plan that was built for somebody else entirely. So
I like, I still like Houston here a lot. I
(20:22):
like him as an underdog a lot.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
Simon be patient. Hard Rock here in Jersey's already just
moved the plus two.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
So really, yeah, so there's gonna be money coming on
the Jaguars. The Jags have owned the Texans again their
last couple of meetings. They've just even when CJ has
been the quarterback, they've kind of owned them. It's a
really weird matchup, just divisional. When you talk about time,
there's a couple of divisional games this week, you'll I'll
give out the trends. There's just trends that favors certain teams,
certain matchups.
Speaker 3 (20:48):
So yeah, game, I'm going with you on.
Speaker 4 (20:51):
I really love the Texans here, but I'm trying to
be patient, trying to avoid this if I can, because
it's like I'm not going to force this one unless
I'm getting really good numb or so.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
It's two at hard Rock right now.
Speaker 4 (21:02):
A couple of books, like we say hard Rock's a
short book, A couple of public books have already popped
two and a half, so this could get to three
by Sunday. Like I just see the public really coming
on this Jaguars team as the week goes along. Here
again it's it's Davis Mills, Like I get it, like
there should be a great spot for this Jaguars team,
and we love Houston defense. They can only do so much,
(21:25):
like we say, all the time. So I'm like you,
I still like Houston. I'm gonna be patient here, get
a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people.
You can get two and a half right now, key number.
I'm gonna grab down Houston.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
A lot of.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
A lot of sort of be patient conversation right now because.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
The numbers are moving against us.
Speaker 4 (21:46):
I just don't want to take bad numbers here and
when we can get it looks like we're gonna get
some good numbers this weekend, right.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
So if you can get I would say, you can
get Houston two and a half. Get Houston two and
a half. I don't know that it'll go to three.
At some point, there's going to be like an aggressive
amount of buyback from professionals. I'm actually surprised as getting
as high as it is, knowing that most of the
people I'm talking to like Houston as an underdog and
(22:12):
we're just waiting for it to get to that number.
So the fact that it's still going up, what is
that saying to me?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Right now?
Speaker 3 (22:22):
What do you mean the some pro promo pro money's
in this Jaguars side. I know well that you know
it's okay.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
It's a little bit nerve wracking.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
I like it when we're all when we're all aligned,
when everyone's together, it's like a group sweat.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
New England at Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
There we go, finally some good games.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
Tampa Bay is a two and a half point favorite.
This was Chad's choice. I got to tell you, I'm
a bit disappointed that it hasn't moved even a half
point to three. It's especially concerning because while the tickets
are on the box, even more money is on the Bucks,
and so that tells me that there is some wise
(23:06):
guy I love for Tampa Bay despite what we talked
about in sharp calls, and I kind of don't get it.
Like the Bucks have had extra rest, which means Baker
is hopefully cured of some of the ills that ailed him.
We don't know about Bucky Irving. We know that their
(23:27):
offensive aligned could be improved. We know there's going to
be a lot of passing in this game. Fine, but
I like the coaching matchup. I like the Bucks at home.
I like the Bucks coming off rest. I like fading
the Patriots when they're finally playing a competitive team on
the road, a more challenging team. Give me the other
(23:49):
side here, unless we're both aligned and the Bucks are
going to be the ones that we love.
Speaker 3 (23:56):
Ye alone too. I'm just people be cautious here.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
It actually has said three a couple of times this week,
and it's been bed away very quickly. So there is
some very smart money that's resisting this at three. So
it's letting you know that professionals are betting that this
will be a close game, where me and you are
betting that this won't be honestly, because we're taking two
and a half here. We know the deal with Baker,
right Like, he wins close games, usually by a field
(24:21):
goal at two and a half.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
Again, like, I'm like you, I can't believe we're getting
away with this.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
It feels like a very very nice number with a
quarterback that tends to play close games under.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
A field goal.
Speaker 4 (24:30):
So I get where the pros are coming from. I
get their position on this New England team. They've been
riding them a lot this season, they've been paying them out.
This is another true test spot for New England, right, Like,
this is a game where I think we're on alignment,
Like they should get rolled here.
Speaker 3 (24:47):
A lot of questions.
Speaker 4 (24:47):
About the health this Bucks team, Like Chad said, we
don't know you have Bucky Irvin's back. Chris Godwin still
hasn't practiced yet this week. Those are two huge pieces
to all pros to that offense that they need in
this game. So I'm hoping they come back and when
they get cleared, the number does move.
Speaker 3 (25:05):
Maybe that's what's holding up the lot line moving here.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
But yeah, just breaking this one down even you know,
not just gonna give Will Campbell too hard of a
time last week because you're going to again smiles Garrett
or two weeks ago. And then he kind of got
embarrassed last week against Atlanta, like Atlanta's line got a
ton of pressure against his doingland front. You expect the
Bucks defense and the blitz scheme they run, you know,
should get pressure against Drake Man. We've seen him kind
(25:29):
of that's the only thing that really struggles with when
he can't do what he's so great at, which is
getting outside the pocket and uses like as running.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
For ten yards.
Speaker 4 (25:36):
If you keep him contained, bottle him up, he'll struggle.
And we know that's what Todd Bowles likes to do.
I mean, I'm an ertzk I'm a huge hurts guy.
Every time hers struggles against this Bulls defense. It's because
he bottles over the five in the front. So I'm
with you, Chad. It's we'll see Sunday. Maybe I can,
I'll get more info and maybe I guy talk this
out of it. But as we say to it right now,
(25:56):
I bet heavily into the bucks. I love the Bucks.
I think it's a great number. And I think this
Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued,
and I think they're are valued here. There's probably should
be three and a half. It's two and a half.
Come on, we can't avoid this one.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
It's too good Tampa Bay Box. They're going to be
in the final five. It's going to be hard to
keep them out.
Speaker 4 (26:15):
That's oh my god. We'll see what I talked about
this weekend. Because I'm like, if I have a really
smart group being like day, this is a pay this
is a Patriot spot. You guys got to avoid this one. Okay,
maybe I can talk to it, but I'm so bet
into it, so are you. I'm with you.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
I just cannot I can't see it not being one
of our five.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
You and I are the really smart group. That's the ballgame.
You and I are the smart group. They should be
worried about us. If they're betting the Patriots, they should
be like, oh shit, Chad and Simon. There was Chad
choice this week and Simon is bet into it. Like
we got to rethink that's how it should go here.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
But you know the issue, it's us, there's public, the pros, everybody,
all of us are on Tampa. I've only heard a
couple of really smart guys, and like you said, this
number is hitting so much resistance at three.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
I'm just making sure we're.
Speaker 4 (27:05):
Not missing something here because it's interesting, like you said,
this has not gone to three.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
I thought this would for sure be three by Thursday.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Yeah, I'm actually a little shocked myself, all that, all
that alphatak aside, I'm a little shocked myself. You know what,
I'm not shocked about that we're talking about Arizona as
a six and a half point underdog at Seattle, and
that we are going to make the Arizona Cardinals as
six and a half point underdogs.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
Our brass balls better the week.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
You know what it takes, It takes brass balls.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
We got what we wanted.
Speaker 1 (27:45):
Jacoby Brissett is starting and in what has to be
the ballsiest. I feel like we're doing this in honor
of Jonathan Gannon, because Jonathan Gannon, in three different press
conferences over the past few days, has basically said they're
(28:06):
benching Kyler Murray. At first, he said they were doing
this because Jacoby Brissett was continuing to perform well and
there was also issues with Kyler Murray in.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
The health bucket.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
And then he said, we're doing it because Jacoby Brissett
is playing well and it's better for the offense to
be able to plan with consistency over the course of
the week. They have since put Kyler Murray on ir
to quote be able to focus on his rehab, which
leads to the question what has he been doing. He
hasn't played in a month. Is he going to focus
(28:47):
harder over the next four weeks? Like everything about this
and this was really telling, The Arizona Republic wrote, for
the first time in seven years, Kyler Murray is not
the starting quarterback of the Arizona Cardinals. The under lying
meaning there is that Jacoby Brissett is the number one
QB and Kyler Murray has been benched. And you can
read into it any way you want about him going
(29:09):
on IR. That could just be all right, We're going
to take some of the pressure off of this conversation.
But before he went on IR, the coach had basically said,
Brissett is going to give us the best chance.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
We're going with Brissett. That's interesting to me.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Now the question becomes are we stepping in it with
the Cardinals.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Because is it?
Speaker 1 (29:31):
Does it become too public to go with a dog
that just came off a big win with a quarterback
we know has been streaking after winning on Monday night.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Yeah, I have some good stats to go against that,
and I will say that Kylier' stuff. I was taken
back by it. I can't believe they went this route,
but it makes sense because what we talked about how
much better the team has looked so much better with
Brisett running the offense, and the fact that if you
do put him in the spot right, put him on
IR maybe does save a little face and saves a
little bit of trade value for you for trying to
(30:02):
get rid of him in the offseason. And I think
anybody knows, even Arizona fans, they saw this week Kyler
was practicing like he was running around out there. He
was good enough to take reps as if he was
going to play last week.
Speaker 3 (30:15):
He clearly not didn't have some type of stepback unless
we missed it right.
Speaker 4 (30:18):
They know more than we do. It's the team inside
the building. But yeah, this is pretty shocking turn of event.
I saw Kyler Murray. I believe he's twenty eight years old.
Still not too late.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
Brother, Go back to MLB, Go get them, see if
you can make a career out of it. It's crazy.
Speaker 4 (30:36):
He's one of the greatest athletes ever to come out
of high school and just shows how football it's so mental.
And he never, to me ever got that aspect down.
Was never right mentally all the time in the world.
I mean, I will always remember that play against the Raiders.
I think it was a two point conversion. He ran
around the backfield for about twenty seconds and I think
it was like a total of like eighty yards. He scrampled, yeah, yeah,
(30:58):
and put it right back in the end for the
two pointers. So brutal, brutal, brual end to that saga.
But for this game, let's just look at Okay, like
Chad said, isn't this a bad spot.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
It's a team that won outright, on the road as
a dog on Monday night.
Speaker 4 (31:15):
It's actually not terrible statistically, and the next game is
an underdog. They're nine and seven straight up, ten and
six against the spread since two thousand, it's not terrible.
So like, okay, we got a little something there. Now,
this one really jumped out to me. Seahawks and this Cardinals.
I talked about divisional matchups. This is crazy chat and
(31:36):
very bizarre. Again, it doesn't matter because I guess these
two quarterbacks weren't even know all these teams when all
this one down. But since twenty twenty twenty two, Seahawks
eight and oh straight up seven to one against the
spread against this Cardinals team, they've just owned them in
this division, which again we say the time that that
does happen. But I was like, okay, let me find
some good Cardinal stats, because that's the side we want
(31:58):
to be on.
Speaker 3 (31:58):
It's a lot of Seahawks love here.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
Yeah, let's find some some bias here. Let's find a
way to make a start.
Speaker 4 (32:04):
Yeah yeah, well, just because it feels like this is
a great number for the Cardinal team.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
Because I let's let's fit.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
Some Let's find some stats that fit our narrative and
what we want to do.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Every week, they've been undervalued.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
So they lost to Tennessee as a seven and a
half point favorite with Kyler. The next week they were
at the Colts, he was an eight and a half
point dog. What they lose by four or five points
in that game. The following week they are seven point
doll to Green Bay at home. They lose that game
by four points, and then we just saw with Dabas
there were three and a half points. So to me,
the book keeps Undervaluabersett. That's why it's been hitting. So
(32:39):
I was like, Okay, what kind of numbers do we
have here for teams making a trip out to Seattle
on a short week, which I think that favors the
type of quarterback per set is a veteran quarterback that
just seems like he's totally rhythm with this offense. This
is pretty wild since twenty twenty one teams in this
exact spot heading to Seattle on a short week there's
seven and one straight up and against the spread. So
(33:00):
we've talked about the lost art of this Seattle home
field advantage, right like we all think back to the
Legion of Doom, but these last couple of years has
not been so. And then even this year, I've already
gave up those stats. They lost to the forty Anders
and week went at home, Okay, we threw that one out.
Their defense gave up thirty eight points to thirty five
points to Baker at home against Tampa, like it's just
(33:22):
night and day. There's road splits are insane, how much
dominant their defenses and offenses on the road. So I
just like this one on a cell point for the
Seattle team. So me and Chad loves to plus six
and a half people, I think this will keep moving
as well.
Speaker 3 (33:35):
Like I said the book, the publics they keep.
Speaker 4 (33:37):
Undervaluing per set, so I can easily set in this
get up to seven. Just like last week we talked,
I like the Cardinals there plus two and a half.
I said, if you're if you're a patient, this will
get the three against Dallas, I got up to three
and a half. Because again people just do not believe
in Brussette. So look at the splits right now. Eighty
percent of the money, eighty percent of the bets right
now are on Seattle. So I just I think.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
We'll get to seven. We're giving it out right now.
Speaker 4 (34:01):
It's six and a half a hard rock I love
this bet, I love this spot, and yeah, it's always
a little scary ben again to arguably the best team,
hottest team in football right now, which Seattle is. But
we're just playing the market, playing the number, and we
think this team is overvalued right now.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
I would definitely say wait on the seven. I think
it's gonna get there.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
This one.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
Unlike the other ones that we've talked about, this one
feels like it's it's trending in that way. There doesn't
seem to be much resistance from the bookmakers, and maybe
they know they'll get it when it gets to seven.
So I'm holding off. I haven't bet it yet. I
love it. If I'm not gonna get the six and
a half, if I'm not gonna get the seven, I'll
(34:39):
bet the six and a half.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
But I'm definitely waiting on the.
Speaker 4 (34:41):
Second to get There's two sevens right now in Jersey,
so there's gonna be sevens are gonna start popping eventually.
Speaker 1 (34:46):
All right, so let's get that seven, all right? Quick
quick quick word.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
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Speaker 2 (36:23):
Terms and conditions apply.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
Concerned about gambling in Florida called eight three three play
wise in Indiana, a few or some of you know
as a gambling problem and wants help. Call one eight
hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one eight
hundred gambler. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
The Los Angeles Rams are bid are visiting the San
Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
The line right now is four.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
On Sunday, it was three on Tuesday, it was three
and a half. It's four at hard Rock, Honestly, it's
four and a half almost everywhere else, like the book
makers are telling us screw off, go ahead and bet
the Niners.
Speaker 2 (37:07):
We dare you.
Speaker 1 (37:10):
What's interesting to me is I am seeing a much
closer split on the betting percentages meaning the number of
tickets between each side, than I am on the money,
which is heavily in favor of the Rams. You know,
you said in sharp calls, whise guys have come in
on the Rams. My question is, was that all at
(37:30):
three and people are ignoring it at four? Do people
like the Niners at four and a half. What's our
opportunity here? Because I got an opinion and it makes
me scared.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, I was a little as it in here because
we talked.
Speaker 4 (37:48):
I took a position on the Rams minus three, and
I said, once I got a three and a half,
I want to been the.
Speaker 3 (37:53):
Four nine ers.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
And I was completely wrong, obviously missed it. Like you said,
it's been met up now to four to four and
a half. It is more of a mac Jones kind
of thing where maybe the line reflects that party will
be out another week. And this is kind of settling
into what a mac Jones line is, which is four
four and a half, which seems fair to me. And
you know when you want to dive into this game,
(38:14):
I think it's pretty simple. You just dive into head coaches, right,
because the quarterbacks keep changing, the pieces keep changing. But
when you really get to the basis of it, it's
two of the best offensive mines in all football going
incase each other. And it does make a difference where
you know which one is the underdog, and that tends
to be the one I usually take my position on,
So just dive in this matchup. I believe this is
(38:36):
the eighteenth time these two guys have met up and
matched in this type of game. Shanean obviously he's done
best in this matchup. He's eleven and seven against the
spread his exact games. But what I thought it was
so interesting was diving into what is mcveighman as a favorite,
because that, to me, isn't that terrible eleven and seven.
I thought it was honestly more because it seems like
Shanneon owns them so as a favorite with Stafford McVeigh
(39:00):
three and six against the spread and straight up against Shanahan,
and that's including this year where they lost outright at
home as an eight point favorite against McVeigh on that
Thursday night game, we talk all the time Thursday Night
are weird games like stuff like that can just happen.
But it's even more so worrying that this game is
on the road now and McVeigh on the road against
(39:21):
Shannan as a favorite. He's one in three straight up
and against the spread at this exact spot. So the
numbers keep telling you you don't want to go with
McVeigh here, and then you dive into even further when
he's on the road straight up in his career against
you know, Shanahan. This is the last eight times they've
played this exact game. He's won in seven McVeigh. So
(39:44):
you just struggled mightily against Shannan on the road in
these type of games. And you could say, well, that's
kind of flicky because look at all the different quarterbacks
through all the years. And that's my whole point though,
it's the coaches stay the same, the schemes stay the same.
So I I liked this a lot for this forty
nine ers team, And the only hesitation I have is
(40:05):
instead I gave out that I want to keep hammering
home about this team. They cannot handle success, they can't
handle winning. I remember two weeks ago where I said
you had to bet Houston against the forty nine and
one of those stupid stats I gave up that's still held.
Speaker 3 (40:19):
True since Christmas of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 4 (40:22):
This is from our guy Evan forty nine ers one
in fourteen against the spread after a straight up win,
one in fourteen. So it's like this insane pattern. Even
more so, they're oh and three straight up after a
win when they're a dog in the next game. So
they're oh and three against the spread and straight up
as a dog in this exact spot since Christmas. And
(40:44):
this is just a weird thing where whatever it is,
this team doesn't handle the wins and they get over
valued by the books and they have a letdown. So
that to me might be the reason these pros are
coming on this Rams team. The trends point to it.
It's like every time this fourgners team has a big win,
especially on the road, they've come home they've laid total eggs.
And that's happened a couple of times already this season.
(41:06):
So I really do like the Niners here getting im
probably talking myself off of it, but I'm not going
to force it in at four. I won't take it,
but at four and a half, I'm taking forty nine
ers there once. Once you get across that key number
a four and a half, I have to take it,
especially where all those trends show mc veigh's struggles on
the road against Shanahan and this exact spot as a favorite.
(41:26):
When people are under you, under betting or not believing
the Niners team, they tend to shine in these exact games.
Speaker 1 (41:32):
Listen to me, Listen, don't talk yourself out of it.
The Niners are the right side here, last fourteen games
in this rivalry, the favorite one to thirteen.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Against the spread. Wow, the Niners are the side.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
We knew it on Tuesday. It's to me, the line
is moving not because of the trendsit. It's moving because
of the Niners defense. They're just so banged up and
they're moving. It's moving because of the Rams rush defense,
which has really become a lead. And if you're looking
at this game schematically, the best opportunity that the Niners
(42:13):
have is to get the ball into McCaffrey's hands thirty
five times, as they've been doing. But Matt Jones has
been showing up and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs.
Speaker 2 (42:24):
Him to do.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
The number is way too big. It just it shouldn't
be four and a half points. And so that's the
side simon. You and I we have confidence niners. Niners
are the side no fear. I don't care what anyone
else is saying. Here's one of them that I do
(42:46):
have some concerns. This one is at two and a half.
It's the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. It's
actually it was a two and a half, it's moved
down a bit to two. You and I both talked
about it on Sunday at two and a half. You
said you were hearing a lot of rumblings about the
(43:06):
Eagles at two. I don't know if anyone's going to
get to watch this game because it's a Monday night game,
and who knows where the YouTube TV ESPN standoff is
going to end.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
But like shutdowns, could this be.
Speaker 1 (43:24):
The moment when it's two massive fan bases that are,
you know, bringing the cable giant and the streaming TV
giant to its knees? Man Tricky, I don't think you
mentioned the Eagles and sharp calls, but I'm still going
(43:46):
to go with the Packers.
Speaker 3 (43:49):
I am too.
Speaker 4 (43:49):
I didn't mention it much because it is a little split,
but I would say, obviously most pros are on Green Bay.
But when I dove back into why my model had
this so off, like I said, I think I had
it at green Bay minus one. Maybe we're undervaluing Tucker
Craft and what he means this Green Bay team and
how big of a loss that is for this offense.
(44:11):
But I can't get over how great of a spot
this is for the Packers. So maybe I'll have a
stronger opinion comes today morning, I can give talk more
about There's this other games I've bet more into.
Speaker 3 (44:20):
I just don't know what to do with this one.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
It's another game where it might be in the twenties,
might be a little snowy on Monday night.
Speaker 3 (44:26):
This could be affected by the weather.
Speaker 4 (44:28):
And you know, if there's no Golden the Rooki receiver,
and now there's no Tucker Craft, it's got to be
an issue, right, Like a passing attack needs its weapons,
especially the team like Green Bay with the it's just
an unnamed receiving core. Right, it's a rotation of guys.
Now you're taking away the number one tight end and
the number two receiver. That's got to effect jord Love
at some aspects. So yeah, for me, I'm still betting
(44:51):
at Green Bay, especially at minus two, but I don't
feel as strongly as I did about it on Sunday
night or let alone on Tuesday.
Speaker 2 (44:58):
I don't feel as strongly about it either.
Speaker 1 (45:00):
I think there's been a lot of movement this week
that has made me feel better about games like the
nine Ers. I'm still bought into the box, the Cardinals,
the Jets are really interesting to me. I know we
like the Broncos too, so I do think we're starting
to find consensus on a bunch of games.
Speaker 3 (45:15):
I don't know how you've missed Miami.
Speaker 1 (45:20):
On Tuesday, we talked about liking Miami and it being
the side.
Speaker 4 (45:24):
Yeah it that's how you should know. It's the right
that's the right bet for us and probably should.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Be one of our five comes Sunday. All right, let
me let me hit you some numbers.
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Talk me into it. Hold on here, but talk me
into it.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
Give me the numbers, but then tell me your hypothesis
for the game.
Speaker 4 (45:42):
I just love this running matchup. I think against his
Bill's defense favors it's Miami team a lot of ways.
Speaker 3 (45:47):
And it's also a unique spot.
Speaker 4 (45:49):
Whether it's Tua at home with a big number, who
always covers for us in this exact spot, except.
Speaker 2 (45:56):
Against the Ravens Thursday night, like a weekd that.
Speaker 4 (45:59):
Was different though that wasn't a midday in the sun
type of game. That was a primetime late game. Look,
we got burned by that one, no doubt. I'm trying
not to.
Speaker 3 (46:06):
Let that affect us in this game. Here, I'll hit
you with the numbers real quick.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
All right, hit me with the numbers, Josh.
Speaker 3 (46:12):
All, let's start with him, the Goat.
Speaker 4 (46:15):
We all know how great he is, but on the
road is more than a touchdown favorite.
Speaker 3 (46:20):
I think we could both agree.
Speaker 4 (46:21):
It feels like he's not that great, And when you
dive into the numbers, it proves out he's two and
six against the Spring in his career on the road
as a seven a half point favorite or more.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
Okay, not the biggest deal. All right, Well, let's dive
into some more.
Speaker 4 (46:34):
Dolphins got blown out last week, right, they were a
dog of seven points or more. They lost by twenty
points or more last week in this exact spot. Those
type of teams and a bounce back spot fifteen and
seven against the spread. So look, we already knew it's
gonna be a by low on this Dolphins team because
they just got embarrassed and blown out.
Speaker 1 (46:54):
But every week, every week is by low on the Dolphins.
Speaker 4 (46:58):
Now, I mean we high last week after they blew
out Atlanta. That was again that was on us. We
should that we misread that one two of this week,
he just got embarrassed. This is his back to back,
So his second home stand game, which you know we
always talk we love to at home or indoors in
controlled environments, to a at home in this exact spot,
(47:20):
So his second straight home game in his career. He's
ten and two straight up, nine and three against the spread.
Oh but Chad, what's you like as an underdog in
this exact spot?
Speaker 2 (47:29):
Oh, Tony Simon three and oh.
Speaker 4 (47:31):
Straight up and against the spread, and this exact spot
to at home and the back to back game as
an underdog. So I kept diving into it, and it's like,
is there more stats I can pull from the good
chat to try to flip on this one? I got
another one for you to at home twenty six and
eleven straight up, and when they lose and they have
(47:53):
a following game again at home. He is three and
oh straight up and against the spread, covering those games
by fifteen points per game. That's and insanes that he
basically if he gets embarrassed or lose at home, he's
dominating that second.
Speaker 3 (48:08):
Game at home.
Speaker 4 (48:09):
And we talked, we just we've been profitable betting to
it at home in that hot sun whatever it is,
all the new shoe and the naonce it's true, like
teams get burned out, they wear on. Tool always comes
back and covers these big spreads in the second half
at him. So I just wanted to bring that game
up as a game you're going to need to take
a little closer look at I'm betting into it. I
don't feel great about slamming the table about Tua and
(48:31):
this Miami team, but this is a great matchup for
their offense, and I think defensively as great as Josh
Allen is and that offense is Cook is banged up.
He's been on the injury report this week and he's
not been practicing. I think I'll be interesting if their
number one running back is Ray Davis. Even though Miami
doesn't have a good front, that's a huge deal. Cook
is like a top five, top ten running back of
football right now. So that's another reason I think this
(48:53):
numbers dropped a little bit. Like again, there's no public
or professional level. I've honestly found this Miami team. It's
just us, buddy, and that makes me love it even more.
Everyone's left them for dead. And this the exact spot
we got to be buying this Miami Dolphins team. I
know we need to get out of here. I'll be
quick on the next one Detroit. The pros are all
over this Washingt team. This number has been bet down
(49:14):
now to seven and a half.
Speaker 3 (49:16):
I get it.
Speaker 4 (49:17):
I'm missing something. This might be a huge blind spot
once again. But I have to trust Campbell, just like
I did last week, Campbell and Golf on these spots.
Speaker 3 (49:26):
I'm so freaking proudy man. That's a way to show up.
You talk about pressure.
Speaker 2 (49:29):
We living pressure.
Speaker 3 (49:31):
That's what we freaking thrive.
Speaker 2 (49:32):
You did it again. You always find a way to win.
We're testing for this.
Speaker 3 (49:36):
Just stay the course.
Speaker 4 (49:38):
I've been betting it for so long, We've been making
money off for so long.
Speaker 3 (49:40):
What do we do here?
Speaker 4 (49:41):
We're trying to go against our instinct here, and I
know it's the very public side. It's probably the most
public side of the week. So maybe that's how we
all avoid it. It's so public, maybe we can tuck
ourselves out of it. But Golf and Campbell after a
straight up loss twenty one to eight against the spread,
like it's just what they do. They are on a
twelve game covering streak after losing the previous game right now,
(50:03):
So every time they've lost, they've come back and covered
the flying game for twelve straight times. So I just
wanted to bringing them up real quick. I know that
I'm gonna get a ton of shit from a lot
of pros this upcoming week at the book. You know,
I'm on this public side once again because again they're
taking a victory lap in the Vikings. They were totally right,
tertoughly terrible read by me.
Speaker 1 (50:23):
I do worry They've got a lot of developing injuries
in their offense, specifically in the offensive line that is
impacting their ability to block and.
Speaker 2 (50:33):
Their rush game. And I talked about this on Tuesday.
I love Detroit.
Speaker 1 (50:37):
Last week too, they were Chad's choice as a big
number against the Vikings because I had no faith in
JJ McCarthy and I had all the faith in the
Detroit Lions ability to run the ball against Minnesota Vikings
rush defense that hasn't been playing well this year. The
problem is, and I noted this on Tuesday, what we
saw on Sunday was a lack of success rate that
(50:58):
allows them to get to a position on third down
where they can execute. You could say that they will
do better against the Commanders in this spot because their
defense is just terrible. But the line's also been having
offensive line issues and some injuries on that offensive line.
So I think that has as much do with sort
of this line moving from what was it eight and
a half to eight down to seven and a half
as it does with fading the Lions overall because of
(51:21):
what happened last week.
Speaker 4 (51:24):
Yeah, the biggest thing winning back Detrait this year. It's
very simple when you dive into numbers. They are at
twenty fifth and third down conversion rate and their eighteenth
and first downs but can't convert.
Speaker 3 (51:35):
They can't, but this is the definition.
Speaker 4 (51:37):
But get right where they're playing a defense at in
red zone efficency, they're twenty seventh in the league. They
are giving up their thirtieth in yards per play defensively,
they are their twenty ninth and giving up the most
passing yards in the league, and they're twenty third against
the rush. So this is it for Detroit. They can't
get right here. Like I said, maybe you're right, maybe
I'll swear them off for good.
Speaker 3 (51:58):
And as honest as I can, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (52:02):
I really don't even know how to respond to that,
you know, I mean, I'm shocked by.
Speaker 2 (52:07):
That Steelers visiting their Chargers.
Speaker 1 (52:10):
The game was three and a half on Sunday, it's
moved down to three. We liked it a lot at
three and a half. You said you're hearing stuff from
the wise guys on the Chargers, which is surprising to
me because Joe Alt is out and it's a game
in LA where the Steelers travel, and it's going to
feel like you're, you know.
Speaker 2 (52:30):
Back at the old three Rivers. When you're playing you not.
Speaker 3 (52:33):
Get it, especially when it's the plus three. I just
do not get this Chargers love.
Speaker 4 (52:37):
So it's another game I'm trying to be careful on
because it does feel way too easy, like we're getting
a dog here against a team that should not be
favored against this defensive front, and you know, one takeaway
could be this defense played over seventy snaps against that
cold Steam last week, and that's not a pushover Colts team.
That's a big, physical, really tough Colts team that that
could affect this Pittsburgh defense in But it's already been
(53:00):
a year of very up and down play, right.
Speaker 3 (53:02):
We joked about it.
Speaker 4 (53:03):
They need five turnovers per game to steal these type
of games. So that's the weird here. But the one
that really jumped out to me about a couple of
people send me this stat about just Herbert and how
great he's been in these night games, which was pretty shocking,
just because it feels like before Harwall got there, they
were just so terrible, this Chargers team, and they just
did have no coaching. But he's actually in a five
game ATS streak winning night games. I think the only
(53:26):
one I could pop in my head was that Chiefs
game to start the year. I know that was a
night game for a fact, when they played down in Brazil.
In his career, Herbert sixteen and nine against the spread,
covering by three and a half points per game. And
this is exact night games type of game. So there's
a lot to like them here. As a favorite. He's
ten and three straight up in these type of games.
(53:47):
I just wanted to bring it up just because we're
just we're so in love with the Steelers. I want
to talk about the other side, why people might like
the Chargers and Herbert to bounce back.
Speaker 3 (53:55):
But I'm with Chad.
Speaker 4 (53:57):
I just can't get to the fact that losing Joe
Alt this this offensive front, him having no time. They
can't set up a run game either, because they can't
run block either. It's just it just feels so negative
for the Chargers team. On the flip side, I just
love Pittsburgh, So maybe again I can avoid it because
I'm lying to myself saying, well, Pittsburgh's defense seventy snaps now,
short week on the road. That's a tough spot to
(54:18):
put this defense is. But just man, what am I
grabbing here with this Chargers team. Other than Herbert, It
just feels like a lost bet.
Speaker 1 (54:25):
Here's what if I had to predict how we're narrowing
it down on Sunday. I think we're talking about San Francisco.
I think we're talking about Arizona. I think we're talking
about Houston. I think we will have talked about Denver.
I think the Jets will be in the conversation. I
(54:46):
know Miami is going to be in the conversation because
I already could lean that way and you're feeling heavily,
you're feeling strongly about it. So and maybe green Bay,
well we'll have to have a conversation. I don't think
Detroit's gonna make it I don't know if the Steelers
will make it either. Maybe that's a mistake and we'll
talk it out on Sunday. But those feel like the
(55:08):
games to me again, Denver, which we both love Tonight
Thursday night, the Jets plus two and a half, the
Cardinals plus six and a half, which is our brass balls,
the Niners plus four and a half, Miami plus nine
and a half feel like the leading contender.
Speaker 2 (55:25):
Simon, give me your biggest bets.
Speaker 3 (55:26):
Pull up those pants and be a man. Obviously, people
know love Denver. Tonight.
Speaker 4 (55:32):
I'm gonna have a lot of money tied to them Dolphins,
but pretty big into bucks, but pretty big into and
you know a lot of these gamers waiting positions like
forty nine ers probably going to pen as a bigger
bet seeing with the Cardinals just waiting to get better
numbers on those games.
Speaker 1 (55:48):
Last week underdog parlay and Favorites parlay. We are leaning
into favorites so much more. We ended up having to
do both sides of games, which we don't love doing.
So Mitchell suggestion, I think your suggestion, and we'll three.
Let's do three for the underdog parlay.
Speaker 4 (56:07):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog.
Speaker 3 (56:11):
Blocks mo Dog. Jets plus one ten.
Speaker 1 (56:14):
I was just going to say, Jets have to be
in there. Texans le see, yeah, I like that.
Speaker 2 (56:22):
Niners I like that all right.
Speaker 1 (56:24):
Underdog money line parlay Round Robin Jets, Houston, Niners. Favorites
Panthers Panthers, Lions.
Speaker 3 (56:41):
Panthers, Lions, Ravens.
Speaker 2 (56:43):
Ravens for sure. We're all in on the bucks either way.
Speaker 3 (56:49):
Yeah, that's true, that's true. Bears are yeah. Ten.
Speaker 2 (56:54):
Let's do the Bears, Bears, Let's do the Bears.
Speaker 3 (56:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (56:57):
I'd already forgotten about the.
Speaker 3 (56:58):
Bears survivor before we get out of here. Tough, tough week.
Speaker 4 (57:03):
I unfortunately to use the lines, God, I can't believe
I'm doing it. Panthers, Wow, I know, my God, I
gotta do it though. It's it's that kind of it's
it's that year where you guys start getting into.
Speaker 3 (57:20):
The other teams that win each week. So I'm gonna
go Panthers.
Speaker 2 (57:23):
All right, Sharp versus Square? We both lost last week?
Would you like to go first? You you had the
Chargers last week I had the Jacks.
Speaker 3 (57:32):
Oh, I guess I'll flip the last week.
Speaker 4 (57:33):
I went with a minus nine and a half road favorite.
Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog. Wow.
Speaker 1 (57:39):
Yeah, I love that. That makes me feel even more
confident about putting in the contest, though, I will tell you.
Speaker 3 (57:46):
That that's scary.
Speaker 2 (57:48):
I'll go to San Francisco.
Speaker 3 (57:50):
Here you go. What number? Are you taking four and
a half for.
Speaker 2 (57:53):
Four and a half and you're taking Miami plus nine
and a half?
Speaker 3 (57:56):
Let's go right?
Speaker 2 (57:57):
Yeah, all right, all right. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network.
Speaker 1 (58:03):
We will be back. I'm Sharper Square on YouTube on
Sunday morning. As you easdrop on our intimate conversation, we
will panic, make human decisions.
Speaker 2 (58:13):
Regret the rest of the day.
Speaker 1 (58:15):
We'll be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night, seven
point thirty ish pm to recap all the misery watcher Listen,
I'm Sharper Square YouTube, like and subscribe. You can also
download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, where you get your pods.
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, state whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (58:31):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I love you.
Speaker 3 (58:35):
Hey, let's recare for
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