December 26, 2025 • 50 mins
With the egg nog finished and Santa safely back at the North Pole, betting expert Chad Millman and professional sports gambler Simon Hunter deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 17.
Christmas Day games are done, so they tell their fellow yuletide bettors their favorite remaining NFL matchups across the board, leading up to their final five against the spread bets in their weekly NFL pick 'em pool contest https://sharporsquare.thevolume.com/ as our audience competes for a fabulous grand prize trip to South Florida, courtesy of our sponsor Hard Rock Bet!
We also have Simon's weekly Sharp Calls segment, where Simon recaps the conversations he's had with fellow professional gamblers responding to our show earlier this week. NFL betting picks and predictions provided today include their best bets for a blockbuster AFC South matchup between the Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts. We also have Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers against Shedeur Sanders and the underdog Cleveland Browns, and the benched Tua Tagovailoa giving way to Quinn Ewers as the Miami Dolphins face Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Plus, can Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills claim victory over the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles? Will the New York Giants tank their game against the Las Vegas Raiders to keep pace for the #1 pick in the NFL Draft? And will Caleb Williams continue the Chicago Bears' remarkable run against the San Francisco 49ers? Answers to all these, plus picks and predictions for NFL Week 17 including our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, Round Robin parlays, over/under picks, survivor pool picks, Simon's biggest bets of the week, moneyline favorites, parlays, and so much more. #Volume
0:03:00 - START 0:03:25 - SHARP CALLS
0:09:45 - HOUSTON TEXANS VS. LA CHARGERS
0:13:13 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS
0:17:00 - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
0:21:04 - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS
0:28:40 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
0:32:40 - TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
0:35:20 - NEW YORK GIANTS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
0:38:30 - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. BUFFALO BILLS
0:43:00 - CHICAGO BEARS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
0:54:29 - SIMON BIGGEST BETS, PARLAYS, ETC
-- All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper a Square presented by hard Rod Batt.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the show to make the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chadman and I enjoined as always by my DFF,
my companion Mike Fadre my co Ho Professional Better Signing Hunt. Hello,
So I am in Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
What we thought was gonna be a terrible Christmas Day
for football actually turned out to be pretty dang good.
So I'll give props the NFL doesn't matter what they
put out their their product wise.
Speaker 4 (00:36):
They always end up getting good games.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
And so Evan Abrams had a crazy tweet Holiday games
Thanksgiving dogs three and oh Black Friday. Obviously the Bears,
your Bears dominated the Eagles, covered as a dog, and
then we went three and oh again on Christmas.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
So underdogs on the Holidays, seven and oh pretty pretty crazy.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
And yeah for our show, you know, I pushed on Dallas,
but we hit on Minnesota, hit on the Chiefs, lost
on the money line parlay obviously, the Lions lost out right.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
The Dallas Cowboys, now fifteen to one, set the record
most overs ever for a first half in an NFL season.
So thank you Dallas Cowboys. Once again Dak Prescott in
a meaningless game of December.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
My god, is he good?
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Simon as one of my favorite Englishmen, you are, let
me be one of the first to wish you a
happy Boxing.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Day, Chad.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I finally got the real info in Boxing Day from
my mother. I asked my mom what Boxing Day was,
and it blew my mind. It's a Victorian era holiday.
It goes back to eighteen thirty three Boxing Day, and
apparently she said it was basically the rich people would
give their leftover gifts to their servants and they would
(01:58):
give them the day off after Christmas because have to
work on Christmas. So it wasn't as happy in jolly
as I thought I was going to be. It's still
a cool holiday because it's a tradition of people getting
off work and it's a holiday I wish America.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
I can't give it today. I saw people out working today.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's like, my god, we can't figure out a holiday
for Boxing Day, and we can't figure out the holiday
after the super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
I might need to run for president just on those
two basis.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Jack, give us the day off of Christmas and the
day off after the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Well, look, you and I are working today. Matt Mitchell
was working today. That's yeah, exactly, we're working. We're struggling
through it. My Christmas was blown up.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Because I tested positive for COVID.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I know Matt Mitchell's Christmas was a blast, even though
he was in the er or his wife was in
the er with one of his kids for most of
the Christmas Eve night.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
But here we are. We're getting through it.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
We are the Kansas City Chiefs of the podcast world.
We're going to get through it. We're going to play
our best. We're gonna be professionals. We're gonna cover.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
We're going to cover it all.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
Oh it even mention the Chiefs. They covered.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Like Chad just said, now, that's stats since nineteen seventies,
the Chiefs is a double digit dog at home fourteen
and oh against the spread, crazy.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
And beat it, can't beat it.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
All right, let's get into this thing because every week
we get some feedback from the professional betters who have
been listening to the show, and Simon.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
They got a lot of feedback for you. It's time
for sharp.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Car half answer this boat.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
All right, Rain Range telephone range.
Speaker 4 (03:40):
Somebody said it maybe want to do man, Yeah, let's
start off with the Saturday games. They love Chad's bet
on the Texans, which I agreed with, right.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I think we were both in the same page as
that when we like that matchup a lot, and you know,
especially a game we could break down more. But I
feel like every probably talk to you probably had the
same and tality we do.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
It's just, yes, the.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Chargers have been winning. This is gonna be the best
d line they've they faced since the Eagles. I remember
how much the Eagles were just in their face. I mean,
the Houston's d lin is probably better than the Eagles.
So that was a really fun discussion game. We've seen
that number come down now from peaked at two and
a half I think, and most books now down to
one one and a half on the Chargers.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
So yeah, professionally, he has definitely hit that one. Now.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
I don't know, not much to say about the Green
Bay Ravens. Unfortunately, we were spot on with our early
read on that one. We talked about grabbing the two
and a half. The pros did grab that, but I
would say in last twenty four hours, I haven't really
talked to many pros backing Green Bay now minus four
and a half without the unknown of who the quarterback
is going to be.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
So we're not even going to talk about this game now.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Well, in our other contest, it's probably gonna be play
for US at two and a half, just because that's
such a good number now, especially if Ulmar is gonna
miss that game for the Ravens.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Let's get to the Sunday games.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Really really interesting splits between the Eagles, which I think
the pros absolutely love, and the Joe public and us
on that Bill's side might have got a little call
out there.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
I really didn't think the.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Eagles would be play and starters, but apparently they're all
in and maybe we underestimated there might be an injury
to Josh Allen. So that's an interesting game. We're definitely
go to break down some more. Pros loved the Colts
a game I think you were on. I was definitely
on the other side of it. I'm kind of indifferent
about it. I just I just think the Jacks are
just so much a better team. So that was a
really interesting one, Tennessee. Not that shock and I told
(05:20):
you that felt like a really sharp play by you.
Pros love it. Every pro I've talked to is on
that side. It's gonna be the definition of pros verse jokes.
Pros are lining up on that side, the public is
hammering that same side. Gonna be a really interesting matchup.
Cleveland Browns is actually not as just pro as I
thought it was gonna be. The public is coming on
Cleveland as well. But that was a pro game. I
believe it opened four and a half. K suspension came out,
(05:43):
probably dropped it to four to three and a half,
like we did our show, you get out the three
and a half. Now you see the professional money coming
in very heavy, bumping this down to three at most books.
Even some two and a half's popped up, saw some
buyback from the pros, and this one back to three.
So that's another really interesting game and game I gave out.
I knew the pros to be on it. I love
the Seattle Seahawks. That's gonna be another draw the line
(06:05):
in the sand pros versus shows. Now, I did talk
to some really sharp groups that did take the Panthers
seven and a half, but they're indifferent right once it
gets to seven. They really just bought the number on
the hook. Just a really interesting game that went a
lot of back and forth. So yeah, the cap it out.
I'm on the other side of it. I'm gonna get
my professional brothers. I really like the Rams.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
They love the Falcons, they love the number on the Falcons,
they love the match of the Falcons.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
And I don't know if you have an opinion on
that one, but I thought it was richardesting. I just
I'm even more dug in. I bet even more and
one in the Rams, which went to seven seven and
a half. So that's a really fun game to break down.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
All right, Well, let's get into it. I think we
have so many.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Differences of opinions, and then we're on the same side
of a bunch of things. The Texans at the Chargers.
I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper
Square contest with all of our listeners because we both
love the Texan Here, I bet the Texans at two
and a half. I bet him on the money line
(07:05):
Demiko Ryan sixteen percent. ROI as an outright underdog as
a head coach. But look, this is all about betting
against the Chargers offensive line. I just will not be
fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys and looking
great against a team that did what it did against
(07:26):
Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't
be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and
getting that win when they when Jalen Hurtz had so
many turnovers in that game.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
I'm just not buying it.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
I know, justin Herbert is great, that'll buy This offensive
line is in trouble, and this offensive line is going
against the defense that I think is actually better than
the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I want to make a point about that when we
talk about the Jags. So yeah, like I'm just going
to keep betting the Texans.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Yeah, it's too interesting where this game ends up, because,
like you said, it's the as great as the Chargers
have been a lot of it has just been kind
of you know, that Egos game. They probably should have
lost it, right, things went their way, and we're giving
props to Herbert. He had a horrible game, but he
outlasted Hurts in that game where you know Hurts that
crucial turners at the very end of the game, driving
(08:21):
to win the game, and you know Herbert didn't as
bad as he playing that game, he played well enough
obviously to win it. Same with the Chiefs game. He
didn't play amazing, they only scored one touchdown, but they
outlast them, right, They won sixteen to three. That was
the exact type of game that Herbert always loses to Mahomes.
So I do want to give Herbert props. I know
people were saying, you know, he should be the MVP discussions,
(08:41):
that's too far going the one way, But I do
think he deserves get the respect of you know, this
is a guy that, like you said, he's lost both
his tackles, has a bad hand, still producing week to week.
So I get why the general public is backing them here, right,
why they trust him more in the sense that you know,
the playoffs that matchup the last time they played. You
(09:02):
do kind of have to burn those tapes of throw
it away, right, That was first games Herbert could possibly have.
But the defensive scheme that I think you can give
Herbert the same type of problems has not changed. And
it's even more so he doesn't have his you know,
starting left tackle and right tackle from that game against
one of the best team lines in football. So I
am right there with you, Chad. It's it's the toughest
(09:23):
part about our contest, right.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
There are five.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
Games this week we cannot play in our contest because
there's two on Saturday and the three obviously for Christmas.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
That's hard.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
That means we have eleven games left to pick from
from our contest, three of which I don't want to bet.
So now we have eight games. Yeah, games out of
the eight, so still all the time of our contest.
I love it, but it is really tough, and tons
of respect to the people that do play it. I
think we had what was it ten or three different
people starting to know to start the year for this contest.
Just really impressive. Because we say the lines are always moving.
(09:52):
It's a really tough contest. So I'm like, you wish
we could get this one. I love the Texas here,
but maybe it's for the I think it's one. It
would be one and a half in our contest. That's
where most lines are going.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
I don't think I care, like I'm betting more on
the money line for this game than I am on the.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Side that's fair, you know me. I'm so into the
number two. How it's such a key number. I just
I feel much safer taking the two.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Two and a half Seattle at Carolina. Uh, you loved
this game. You have it, As Simon says for Seattle,
I was surprised and sharp calls to hear that other
professionals were lining up on Seattle because like, the Panthers
(10:36):
are our beloved, right. We have been betting on the
Panthers and Bryce Young for two years now. We just
had a huge win with the Panthers against the Buccaneers
as home dogs last week.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
You make a very good point. Seattle's been great on
the road.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
The Panthers have been flip flopping good bad, good bad, good, good,
back good bad. Doesn't matter if they're at home or
on the road. So I need to hear more.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
I just need to know more.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
About forty eight hours since we discussed it, seventy two
hours since we discussed it.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Why is everybody loving the Seattle team?
Speaker 4 (11:12):
Well, it's just there's there's different classes.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Like the Panthers as much love and props for given
to them, Seattle is in a totally different stratosphere. When
we talk about talent level, and I get it, like
can the Panthers keep up offensively?
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Right?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
We've seen Bryce Shung have these incredible performances where he
can keep his team in any game. Yeah, that can
easily happen. That's why the public is coming in on
this team, right, They kind of the same view. I
think that you're kind of can hear a little bit
of like, is Seattle really seven and a half points
better than Carolina? Which I guess in a vacuum they're
probably not, But I think most people that models if
you keep simulating this game, Seattle absolutely dominates this matchup,
(11:51):
you know, fifty five fifty seven percent of the time,
which again, that's an edge to me. That's something I'm
looking for. And you know, just looking at this game.
At Carolina game, we talked about the Bucks. They were
in total control of that game and Baker just had
a total meltdown that second half for Bryce Young stepped up,
had big time throws heading into that. If the Panthers
(12:12):
had lost, I honestly would have this game at ten.
So I moved it, you know, a point and a
half because they did win that game. It feels like
the books in the public have moved at three, three
and a half points because of that, and it just
feels like a total reaction where we've seen this Panthers
team right when there's you know, at home against the Rams.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
That game they won that game.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
If you go back and watch it, that was probably
one of Stafford's worst games, and he still put up
twenty eight points. So we've seen the teams can move
the ball against his Panthers team, it's all about Bryce
Young keeping up with him.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
This is different.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
This Seatles defense is just so legit and defensively, their
defense are front I think you could argue they have
two of the best five d tackles in all football
this season, especially against the run. So it's gonna be
a one dimensional game. It's all getting our Bryce. Youong
to beat them pass in and I already gave you
all those stats about know Sam Donald, when he's a
big favorite, the books are telling you something, right. It's
(13:04):
a unique thing for him. He's been a favorite of
seven points or more twelve times in his career. He's
nine to three against the spread, twelve and zero straight
up in those games. So Sam Donald, we've seen these
last two years. This is the only time he's been
these bigger favorites these last two years. He's lived up
to those numbers. He tends to perform very well against
bad defenses. So this we saw yesterday with the Lions team.
(13:24):
When teams are playing for an automatic bid or just
to keep their playoff lives alive, sometimes they collapseneath the
press the lines.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
This is the exact same thing for the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
The Panthers need to win this game and they don't
need to care about the Bucks next week. How many
times we've seen these teams look ahead and have a
total letdown this spot, So it's it is painful. I
don't want to do this to the Panthers, but it
makes me happy knowing no matter what, if it's three,
if it's two, we'll be on the Panthers next week anyway.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
So I'm getting off on this week.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Chen I love Seattle in this spot, but it's it's
it's something I've done with Panthers this seed. They've just
been up and down week to week, and it just
feels like a really bad spot for them with the
lookhead for the books next week.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Jacksonville at Indy, that's the game that I want to
talk about. You and I are against each other on
this game. Jacksonville's a six and a half point favorite.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Number one.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
I just feel like this is the ultimate by low
Sell high right. We saw what the Patriot, We saw
what the Colts did on Monday Night football against the Niners.
Couldn't cover anyone, lost by three touchdowns. We saw what
the Jags did against the Broncos, winning going away on
the road against a team that very likely is competing.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
For the number one seed. Here, I have a theory.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I don't think the Broncos defense is actually or the
Broncos offense is actually as good as they're being given
credit for. And I think the bo Nick's miracle comebacks
have sort of elevated them because look, they didn't do
that great against Jacksonville. Then they turned around and didn't
(15:03):
do that great against the Chiefs that had a crapload
of backups playing in the game. So I think by
that transitive property, the Jacksonville Jaguars are being a little
bit overrated here. And I will say that home dogs
have more than a field goal off a blowout sixty
one percent against the spread. That one no fog, my friend,
that is clear as day. Indianapolis Colts plus six and
(15:28):
a half.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
Yeah, And that's that's why I like the the Denver part.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I get why people have hated, right, their defense probably
isn't as good as we give them credit for it either.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
They've had a pre self schedule.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
But the problems I did give the Boe Nicks is
same thing with Caleb Williams, Like these comeback wins. What
more are you looking for in your second year quarterback?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Like these? They keep winning these one score games Denver,
which is really impressive to me. And I'm with you.
Am I going to be hammering them for Super Bowl odds? No?
They have to get caught eventually Denver.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
And this jag where I seem a little bit what
you're talking about here that's very true, is that this
is peak right. This is probably them being super valued
by the general public. I don't know if it's so
much by the models. And that's that's what I'm having
a hard time with here. So Chad's on the sharp side.
This number to me, just like last week the Colts,
I believe they opened six or six and a half
(16:22):
against the forty nine ers. It closed four and a
half by kickoff. So this number here, like Chad's saying,
there's just six and a half a hard rock here
in Jersey. It's it literally just went to six. I've
seen a couple of books already moved to five and
a half as we speak right now. So the Pros,
they're with Chad, They're coming in heavy on this cold side.
I just I gave you guys historical numbers. I can't
go against it. It's just every time I think the
(16:43):
Jags will eventually slip up here. It doesn't matter if
it was Minshew, doesn't matter if it was Blake Bortles.
It's just they've had tons of trash or the quarterback position,
and the Jags always, for some reason find a way
to cover and beat this Colts team. Now when they
have a well machine on offense, the Jaguars, the Trevor
Lawrence playing at the highest lebe I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
I'm not gonna lie to each other. I'm just I
can't do it. I can't go against them.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
So people betting this one, if you are with Chad
and you're taking Indianapolis, like I said, it is the
sharp side, you gotta grab the number now, because I
do think the Pros are gonna bet this down For
me that I like the Jags now that I'm seeing thelignement,
I'll just be patient.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
I'll take the five and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
If anything, I'll just throw them in a teaser and
just take the money line this Jaguars team. But like
I said, if we come Sunday morning, CHaGS really like
Chad saying I need this golts one in the contest,
I'm not gonna fight you on it because I do
believe you're right that is the sharp side and the
Jagger due for a letdown.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
It's just I can't get over how good this Jags
offense is.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Even I went back and watched that Denver that Denver game,
Liams in his bag man like him skimming up to
open these guys where rub routes using that tight end
to come out in the flat route to bring the
cornerback down so there'll be a higher route, you know,
in the middle of the field. And just there's multiple
times watching there's just guys open against them in the middlefield.
So I think, I said, I just I'm seck the
(18:04):
Rams with me and the Rams now I think Jackson
have won me so much money or these last couple
of weeks.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
I just think they're just so undervalued by the general public.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Soul could be a week that Chad's much sharper than
me with this COVID cold because he's not in only
this game, the Tennessee game.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
You were. You were ahead of it on both of
these games, being the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Well, let's talk about Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Maybe I should just have COVID every week and then
I'll just have clarity, fog for fog for everything else,
but clarity when it comes to the lines.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
So that's the best way to live.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Yeah, No, orally, Well, part of it is like, uh,
for the past thirty six hours, I've been quarantining from
my family, and which is actually annoying because you know,
my kids are home for a limited time and they're
old enough now that it's actually just really fun to
(18:52):
go out with them, Like they have real things to
say and real conversations and it's just blast to be
hanging with them. And now I'm just sitting here in
my freaking office because I can't do anything.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
Christmas miracle, people, a man in his fifties realize his
kids have personalities incredible.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Don't make me weeze New Orleans and Tennessee. This line
is now down to two.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
And a half at hard Rocket, opened at three and
a half we've been betting it, or at least I have.
I also bet Tennessee on the money line. So look,
you've said it, the wise guys are on it. I
don't love that there is a majority of the tickets
coming in on the Titans. It makes me feel like
(19:40):
we might be backing a little bit of a public dog.
But I just want to feel better after you said
the wise guys have been pounding this as well.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
Yeah, and that's fair.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
It could it could be a little bit of a
public dogs what we talked about, right, this is a
Tennessee team that we've all left for dead, and I
think I gave it up. They won like three o
their last five, like they had been winning games. It's
been pretty impress so not that shocking. I didn't I
have not seen the ticket stuff, but you're right, like,
I'll probably get more infu on that as the week
goes along here. But yeah, I, like I said, you
(20:09):
were spot on it when it was three. The two
and a half is still a great number as well.
I'm I'm like I said, I'm banned from betting it,
but if I was going to bet it, I would
be joining chatter. I think the early read on Tennessee
is right, and it's another game. I wouldn't be shocked
if he did put in the contest because it's probably
a game that should be a pick. But like me,
I'm with the public. I still think the books are
(20:30):
underrating Shuck and how great he's been for this Saints' offense.
So I really can't wait to see how this game
ends up because either my model is way off and
I'm overrating Shuck and I'm so in love with this
guy because I have all this money on him to
be Rookie of the Year, or I'm spot on that
he is legit, which I cannot believe because going back
watching his college tape, I just can't believe that he
(20:50):
actually is a good quarterback. So yeah, this Saints game
is really fun because it's not that it dictates the future,
but I feel like it's it's another game that decides,
you know, is Chuck the best rookie this year? He's
gonna win Rookie of the Year because this is a
true test. Right, He's had a great test with the
Panthers the Bucks, those were great, great wins, but this
(21:11):
one is really interesting because they just had a blow
went at home now they're going on the road.
Speaker 4 (21:15):
We'll see how this young rookie deals with success. That way.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
I'm this is this is not going to be a
corner TV game. This is going to be in the
four box. I will so be watching this game for
so many reasons. There's actually going to be a blast.
And by the way, kudos to Mike McCoy. Mike McCoy,
who was kind of a nondescript, forgettable coach with the Chargers,
(21:42):
has come in whatever he did, has highlighted how bad
Brian Callahan was right because with with whether it was culture,
whether it was discipline, whether it was play calling, running
the ball, running the ball, how he's managing this team
generally has just changed it dramatically and turn them into
(22:03):
much more of Ay safer Bet, I think you can
lift yourself imposed ban.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
I don't want that. I respect to the fans. I
just I cost them in myself way too much of
money with my stupid opinions on Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Yeah, but the flip side is you could be costing
them money now by banning it like I'm on it,
I'm making I am now making money on the Titans.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
It's crazy what a world are you live.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
In the COVID Man.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
The COVID brings clarity Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Simon, Cleveland Browns
are a three point underdog at home. Like we said,
the land has moved from four and a half to
four to three and a half to three.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Cleveland Browns are.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Going to be our brass balls Better the Week presented
by Hard Rock Bet.
Speaker 4 (22:51):
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Who knows what's going to happen in this game.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
If the if the Ravens lose on Saturday Night, well,
Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
We know Dk metcalf is not going to be playing.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
I think we're we're leaning into the division rivalry. We're
leaning into Miles Garrett going for the sack record. We're
leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road.
It's an anti raw ras spot all of those things.
As you pointed out, this is where I want to
say a bet on a team with nothing to play
(23:29):
for versus a bet on a team with something to
play for. In the last two weeks of the season,
sixty against the spread you said it more eloquently, but
now that I remember it and it's in my notes.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
I wanted to share it.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Yeah, and like Chad just said, it's a very unique
spot here where we could be getting a great number
because Pittsburgh could simply be sitting.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
All their guys, right.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
This is a really fun game that you know, the Ravens,
I think they're up to minus or plus four and
a half now. Yeah, the books are kind of telling
you they don't think they're going to win there. So
the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons
of public money coming in on the Steelers team because
they're just seeing the minus three, right with a Pittsburgh
team that's been beating pretty good competition these lest weeks,
(24:12):
playing a Browns team that y'all know, they're just not
very good, especially offensively, and they've had now they lost
Junkins to an injury, the running back. Like it's just
it's a nightmare for the Browns. But we've been talking
all season this Browns team. You know, they we were
a little disappointed them because their defense, like it wasn't
shown up the last couple of weeks. Yeah, you know,
even that Bills game, you can't really say they dominate
(24:33):
or showed up in that game totally. It was just
Buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half.
But you know it was another game was close, right,
And you just go through other games. You know, the
Tennessee game they lost at home, I think they lost
by two, and that Bills game, even though they should
have probably lost by ten or eleven, they only lost
by three. So we've just seen this Browns team, even
as bad as they've been down the stretcher, they still
(24:54):
have been playing really tough in close games at home.
And Chad just nailed it. It's like, it's this is
gonna be the Miles Garrett party, and I love the
irony of it if it is gonna be Mason Rudolph
being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against
all that just coming together, and yeah, it's it's really interesting.
We talk all the time about how I gave out
(25:14):
that stat five the last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh
outright at home, and you know that's with you know,
Deshaun Watson's backups and just disaster of the season these
Browns have had these last couple years. They've just continually
beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home, so never.
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Was gonna avoid it. We talked about it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
If you've got to get the three and a half
is a great number to lock in, because that number
just felt like it was gonna keep falling. And now
that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens,
that f the Ravens lose Pittsburgh, they've locked up the
title of the North. They don't need to play anybody.
I just don't see Tom and riskin all these veteran
guys they have playing this game. So this was a
game you don't see Rogers. And you know, as much
(25:52):
as we like to hate on Rodgers, he's been really
impressed in Yeah, so it's it's it's gonna be pretty
interesting how different this team is in a game that
just means nothing them against a Browns team that I
think this is going to mean something to them.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
I think they're gonna be.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Playing hard, especially since your Sanders, who ye still playing
for a job here, So think me and you were
in sync. Youre chatty, And if this is two and
a half in our contest, I'd still take it as
long as you're getting a good plus number on.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
The Browns agree, Simon, you and I mind meld. I
hope I don't give you COVID.
Speaker 4 (26:23):
It's pretty one of my bigger bets this week. It's
like I might really load up a bunch of door
in the Browns.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
But it's a great holb We totally are Matt Mitchell.
I'm throwing you a curveball here because I want to
add in Tampa.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Bay at Miami. The number is five and a half six. Simon,
you didn't mention.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
It in sharp calls at all, But this just is
continuing to feel like a big number for me for
the Bucks because they have not been able to execute
effectively at any point or cover a big number like this.
And Devon Achan could run all over this team. As
we've see, they have not been great at stopping run.
(27:04):
So why aren't we having a bigger conversation about Miami.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
I just I'm with you. You're spot on.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Miami is definitely the side on the spot here. But
like I've been talking about this Bucks team, this isn't
going to continue. They're gonna have a game where they
do get right. This offense, the weapons that have age
is too good. Like what you're saying is true to
me for them.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Defensively, right, Miami should be able to run the ball,
but you saw that last week Quin yours, you can't
complete the ball ten yards now field chet like he
was throwing in the double triple team. So I think
your idea is sound and right. Like. If this is
too a this would be one of my bigger bets
of the week.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
I just I can't be bet in this quarterback that
can make completions against a team that is insanely desperate
at this point. I mean, talk about a dream scenario
to get right. If you were the Bucks, you were
now facing one of the worst secondaries in all of football,
like Mike Evans. Guy when a Mecca Buca Baker, No,
we've talked, Baker's.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Had an injury. This is a no excuse type of game.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
He should be able to move the ball and pass
it all over the field against them Carolina. We saw
in the first half he wasn't rhythm. The second half
we've reverted back to that. We we keep talking with
this Baker. That's just the thirty ninth out of thirty
nine quarterbacks in the league in EPA per play.
Speaker 4 (28:16):
He's just he was horrible. So I think you're read
is sound. I'm just I'm with the public here.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
I'm back in Tampa and I'm taking the five and
a half and I've seen actually some pro Moneyeah, that's
not even gonna talk much about it coming on the Bucks.
This did go from five to five and a half,
and now I'm seeing a couple of books move to six.
So yeah, it's it's an interesting game where I think
your read is right in the sense that if you
want to play that playoff stat we gave out, the
Dolphins are technically a sixty percent play right here, right there,
(28:42):
this is the spot you're supposed to take them. But
I am totally totally worried about them, just offensively with
Queen Yours. It feels like they got the call right.
Don't put in Zach Wilson, put it in the other kid.
Let's let's start losing some games here. There's no point
of us being eight and nine. Let's go and nine
wherever they're trying to get to now. So it's it
(29:02):
just feels like Miami's totally giving up on the season.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
I was going to talk about the Giants and the Raiders,
the battle for the number one overall pick, because the
Raiders have now become one point underdogs. They were one
and a half point favorites when we spoke on Tuesday.
But the news is that brock Bauers is on IRS.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
He's not going to be playing.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
That's why I moved.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
I think that's why it moved.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
But also, the Giants aren't going to have Andrew Thomas,
and they've got other O line injuries, and the Giants,
as we've seen the past couple of years, are just
a much different team when Andrew Thomas isn't playing. And
so are we balancing out sort of the disadvantages when
Andrew Thomas isn't playing and Brock Bauers isn't playing, And
(29:47):
then do we just go with the team we know
is going to have the psycho coach who could give
a shit about draft position.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Yeah, Like, to me, this is number five or number
six for our contest comes Sunday. Like, I love this game,
even though I know I shouldn't because there are I
just said, there's so many unknowns here. And you did
see the line flip when the brock Bowers news got,
you know, came out just because he is so important,
I mean, he is he coming to the season, he
was my number one great tight end. I think I
have him at number two now, behind Trey McBride. But
(30:15):
still for their value to the spread, they're probably only
a handful of tight ends even command half a point,
let alone a point. And yeah, seeing this flip three points,
it feels like a bit extreme for the brock Bowers news.
So I know Raiders are super public side. I've talked
to most bookmakers. They they're basically taking a ton of Raiders' money.
(30:35):
I still think it's the right side. And then that
stat I gave out on Tuesday just keeps ringing in
my head. Right, you have two teams, you know, below
three percent one percentage playing this late in the year.
It's only happened four times in NFL history, I think
since nineteen ninety the home team four and oh straight
up in that exact spot.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
So you know, the numbers bear it out.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
I know it's a small sample, but it kind of
shows that when there's two bad teams there is a
slight home advantage to it.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
And you know, Chad just gave it out there.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Now the Giants, who already have a bad offens line,
now they're down again. Their best offensive tackle playing against
a D line as much crap we want to give
to the to the Raiders, that's probably their only strong
thing we have defensively, and that's what we talk about.
Max Crosby gets to pick left or right, He picks
whatever side he wants to. So really unique spot here
for this Vegas team that I think offensively, not that
(31:24):
they've found something against Houston, but I feel like they
did right they kind of figure it out. It's just
a type of team that you know, we know they
have the weapons, they just never could put it together
consistently because their offensive line is so bad. And I
know a couple of people ask me about that. Do
you expect the Giants bill to take advantage of that?
You've seen it with the Giants their biggest weakness, especially
against the Runners, because they still have linebackers. So Genty
(31:45):
is the exact type of running back you need that
can neutralize a good defensive line.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
So, like I said, this is a game where I
don't know how you feel about it right now.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
I just excuse this game came up by a vision
because again we only could pick out of eleven games
for our contest. I could easily see this being one
fifth or sixth game we talk about just because it's
a game I like and it's just gross enough for
us to make into the contest.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
So I don't feel that strongly about it.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
And the rest of the games we're talking about, I
think we're all on the fence about so I'm happy
to have it. In consideration, Philadelphia at Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
Buffalo is a.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
One point favorite right now, it's come down from two
and a half. I think the news is really about
Josh Allen. He's been limited in practice because of his foot,
and I think also the Eagles have said they're going
to play their starters, so talk about you know, in theory,
the Eagles kind of have nothing to play for, whereas
(32:44):
the Bills actually have something very important to play for.
So it's a little bit of a turning that stat
on its head. You would want to be on the
Eagles here. Unfortunately, I've bet into the Bills at two
and a half, I bet them at one. I bet
them on the money line, So I'm over exposed on
the Bills here. I don't feel strongly that we need
(33:05):
to that we need to play.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
Sorry, Peter out there the end, Yeah, I'm right there
with you. It's I I wanted to be on the Bills.
I like this about a lot for the Bostule. We
just talked about.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
It's a team to me that they're going to be
putting the foot on the gas, like really want to
beat the shitt This Eagles team has it hid in
the playoffs for the Eagles, those have got total letdown spot.
Like they've been partying, you know, a couple of nights
after they won their division, and they have a bunch
of guys coming back from injuries that I don't know
if they're gonna play them in this game.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
Talking about Lane Johnson the order. So it's it's a
weird one chat where I was right there with you.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
I honestly haven't bet anything on the Bills yet. I
do think I'm gonna take a position on them. I've
just been waiting, like you to learn more about Josh Allen.
Is it the foot, is it a bad ankle? What
is the injury? Is he going to practice Josh Allen?
You know, the biggest thing I always talk about is availability.
The greatest strength of Josh. Honest he simply does not
miss time. He is one of the toughest guys in
(34:04):
entire league. It's why we all love him, right, not
just the numbers he puts up, but it's just a
guy that he takes insane hits, he gets the shit
kicked out of him, never miss his games. He never
missed his games. He truly is Superman. And I've talked
about it his future.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
It's gonna be interesting how his life goes, you know,
how what's josh Aan gonna be?
Speaker 3 (34:23):
Like a thirty five thirty four after playing the style
he's played, he's twenty nine. So to me, if he's
good to go chet, if he gets cleared, if he
gets the shot, I don't mind betting the Bills here.
But if there is no practice all week for him
and he's coming in kind of limp here, it's not great.
Like this is a legit good Eagles defensive line that's
gonna give him problem, especially if he's playing on one foot.
(34:44):
So this is a game where I thought for sure
we'd have it as one of our five. I don't
have enough info cheat it might be a game I
just kept it avoid and I don't know if it
can be there. But I do, like I said, I
do want to bet on the Bills. Do not like
this all for the Seaguals team, and you know it's
it's gonna be interesting following this injury port all day
today because you know it's Christmas. There's a holiday, so
obviously Josh in practice yesterday. I believe we heard he
(35:06):
was limited maybe on Wednesday. Yeah, he does a full
walk through, unlike Lamar, Like Lamar hasn't done anything highly
don't like Lamar plays. If we get at least a
walk through with Josh Allen, I'll feel much more comfortable
bet in the s Bills team knowing it's gonna be
him and not Mitch Trubisky.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
It's so funny when you said his greatest strength and
we don't know what his life is going to be.
Like I was thinking, well, you know, he's having a baby,
he just got married, He's got so much going for him,
and you're like, thirty four to thirty five, can he
still be taking these hits? But that's because I've learned
to love my kids.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I just he gives me major Lway vibes. Like you
remember Elway's knees at the end of his career, they
were just falling.
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Off the bone.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
The dude could barely walk.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
Yeah, It just makes me feel the same.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
It was just like Elway was a crazy freak athlete,
just like Josh Allen or Ben Roethlisberger, another great comp
Ben was just like him, impossible to take down in
the pocket, his giant statue. The guy couldn't move from
his left to his right at the end of his
career because his knees were just so shot. So I
just that's my only word with Josh Allen. There's nothing
else to worry about with him, right, he is Superman.
But it's just houses by gonna help up this guy.
(36:12):
Every time they get close in the red zone. It
just feels like his body's the batter and d He's
just one of a con Josh Allen. So it's it's
crazy he's held up this long. Like I said, this
injury it's the only one I can really think of
this season that spooked me about him, Right, he's pretty
much all season.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
We just don't know.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
Is it a broken bone the foot, is it an ankle?
We Honestly, everything I've read like I'm looking right now
on social media, no one knows. It's people just literally
they're just throwt shit against one hooping something sticks. No
one knows what the real injury is. I honestly think
if he is limited and then does the walkthrough, it's
just whatever a bone, BRUI. I don't think it's anything
serious because Josh is the type of guy that he
knows like he just he can't miss any games for
(36:49):
this team.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
Social media is a font of truth, as we all know.
Chicago Bears plus three at San Francisco. It got up
to three and a half and like immediately got bought
back down. I don't know, man, Like I'm so emotionally
invested here, Like it's gonna be Sunday night, Hopefully by
then I'll be coming out of my COVID stupor and
(37:13):
I'll be watching it with my kids and like enjoying
it as a family that acts as if we're from Chicago,
even though we live in the middle of Connecticut. But
every week feels like a letdown spot for the Bears,
And every week now feels like the Niners are overrated,
especially coming off five touchdowns and everyone acting like Brock
Purty is the MVP who could have been?
Speaker 2 (37:37):
So what do we do here?
Speaker 1 (37:39):
It's like high Point High Point by Hi by High
Everyone's in Vidia in this game.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, it's it's unfortunately I can't put Chad down. Chad's
Bears down, and we're saying who who they beaten? Because
they have I mean, you look, beat everybody.
Speaker 4 (37:52):
Right, and they be playoff teams, right.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
They beat Pittsburgh probably gonna a playoff team, beat the
Eagles a playoff team.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
They'd be Green Bay who because the Lions they are
now a playoff team? Right?
Speaker 3 (38:02):
So you know as much you want to get the
Bears because all their games come down to the final
two minutes.
Speaker 4 (38:07):
You know they've put it together this season.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Right, as horrible as their defense has been, what are
they leading the league chat and turnover rate? Because your
quarterback doesn't turn the ball over, your defense gets picked.
So they've found their identity, like they really didn't the
Ben Johnson right, No, stupid turners. Offensively and defensively, they bend,
they give up yards, no doubt about it, but they
don't break.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
They get the turnovers they hold up in the red zone.
Speaker 3 (38:29):
So I think this Bears can be an undervalued and
just looking the splits too, like there's a bunch of
different books I'm looking at right now.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
The tickets are pretty even.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
All the money is on the forty nine Ers, like
the pro is clearly in the public have taken a
liking to this Niners team, So I think.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
The three is right.
Speaker 3 (38:45):
I've talked about a nauseum this Niners team. Yes, they've
been winning games, but I've been super suspect of this
defense just being held together by bubblegum, Like eventually it's
going to come back on you. You can't be the
worst team in the league on getting pressure on the
quarterback and not have a bite in the ass once
you play good teams like the forty nine Ers. They've
been getting away with it because they've been insane offensively.
(39:06):
I mean Mac Jones, I believe is still the number two,
number two quarterback and passer rating against playoff teams this season.
Speaker 4 (39:13):
I think Brock is now number five.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
So it's like it doesn't matter which quarterback has been
in Their offense has been humming this season the Niners team,
So I get why the public's coming in on them.
They look at this matchup and they think that they're
just gonna roll the Spars team. But I'm telling you,
I think the Bears offensively can keep this close, and
we've seen it. Purty does throw those fifty to fifty
balls every now and then, and that's against gonna be
against embarrassing that loves quarterbacks that do that, right, they're
(39:36):
always looking to very take advantage of that. And you
know they give these unique looks with the leather drop back,
the defensive lineman, whatever it is. They've kind of had
these looks where these quarterbacks don't see these type of
schemes as Bears teams doing, which is high risk variants. Right,
They're leaving guys wide open to double team certain guys
where you know they have the numbers. They show that
they really did a get great against Jalen Hurts, Right,
(39:56):
they're really doubling aj They're letting our number three receiver
run solo or free because they just knew it hurts.
He's gonna look at his first read, especially when he's
getting blit. So just once again, really impressed by what
this Bears team does. I'm with Chad. Maybe I'm like Chad,
I'm too close to it, but if our contest is
three and a half.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
There's no way we avoid this one. There's no way.
I just with the hook. I love it.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
And again I have this game model of two so
if I'm getting a point and a half on the
team I really like in this Bears team against a
forty Nite team that I am very suspicious of, I'm
gonna take that number every time. So yeah, I love
this game and it's huge, huge playoff ramifications this one.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
This game, shockingly, I can't believe about to say this.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
This game could easily decide the one seat in the NFC.
So I can't wait to see it. This Bears team, man,
this is a once in a lifetime type of season
if you're a Bears fan, truly is Well, look.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
We're gonna have to make a call because we also
talked about the Rams and that number is going to
be eight and a half in the contest. We also
we don't want a Sunday night game in a mind
game in the contest, so you know what I mean, We'll.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
See that that game we can be patient on because
like again, one of more public books now is down
to seven and a half. So, like I said, the
pros they are coming in Atlanta. I'm more than happy
to let that scare us off and we avoid the
Rams because I have talked to I'm free and no
betting the Rams. This summer, this this December, I probably
should get off the train. I just can't help it.
It's like they just McVeigh is a covering machine in
(41:25):
this month. I've talked about it, so I have no issue.
I was backing off that Rams side just because I,
like I said last week and see that I'm too
close to it. But at some point we're gonna be
getting the best of the number. Like this is now
seven and a half. I mean, if I have that
number a ten, how can I avoid that Rams number?
So it's it's just just streeting how much love Atlanta
is getting. It's just you know, like you Chad talked
(41:48):
about Drake London's back, you know with Kirk.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
Should be a game.
Speaker 3 (41:53):
They should be able to keep close against a Rams
team that we've seen it now right Their their defense
looks like it might be their Achilles heal. They can
be run on if certain holes in their secondary of
this Ramps team. So that's that's a game where I'm
not gonna force to make it one of our five. Chicago.
I would force us to make that one of our five.
I really have a lot bet on that Chicago number.
Speaker 2 (42:12):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
I love for Chicago to be in the contest for us.
I feel like we're making a decision right now. I
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Must be twenty one or over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida.
Speaker 2 (43:37):
Call one eight three three playwise.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
In Indiana, if you were something you know as a
gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and
nine with it. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 2 (43:53):
All right, simon, biggest bets.
Speaker 4 (43:55):
Pull up those pants and be a man quick. I'll
give us some stats.
Speaker 3 (44:00):
A lot of people have asked, what are the odds
of this playoff pool that we have this year? So
I basically ran my model. What were the odds before
the season of Joe Burrow, Lamar and Patrick Mahomes all
missing the playoffs? Point zero zero seven jaed Jesus, that's
the odds of us having this outcome of this season
on just the AFC side. So, I mean, this is
(44:22):
like what I dream of with football. I'm gonna lose.
I have someone to lose a decent amount of money.
The only team I have left in the AFC that
I will win money on is if the Bills make
the Super Bowl and play the Rams or the Eagles.
That's that's the last hope I have, just because, like
I've talked about, I just didn't think Drake may or
Bonix would be the type of guys i'd have any
type of Super Bowl futures on.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
And obviously I have some regrets with that one.
Speaker 3 (44:42):
It's favors that I saw teams that missed the playoffs
that are winning fifteen games in the prior season two
thousand and eight New England Patriots. Everyone remembers, obviously the
torn A cl with Tom Brady twenty sixteen Carolina Panthers,
which makes sense, right, That was kind of a fools
goed fifteen to one Cam Newton team that just fell
off the next season. The twenty twenty five Chiefs and
(45:03):
the twenty twenty five Detroit Lines. Wow, pretty insane, right,
two of them in the same season. Another one I
really loved, which was the one seeds. So one seeds
to be the one seed the year before and then
not make the playoffs since two thousand. We had in
two thousand and one Tennessee in the Giants, two thousand
and eight New England in the Dallas, two thousand and
(45:24):
ninth Tennessee and the Giants Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (45:26):
That's kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
Three times them, twenty twenty two Tennessee and Green Bay,
then obviously twenty twenty five the Chiefs in Detroit. So
it's just really unique. Right We always talk about the
window closes pretty quick? Do we think the Chiefs windows closed? No, Detroit,
I know the public has left them for dead. You're
a Detroit fan, get ready for it. I Am going
(45:47):
to be betting all of your futures next year. You
literally went from the first place schedule to I think
next year you get Arizona, Tennessee and the Giants. That's
gonna be insane. You guys get fully healthy next year.
So the Troy fans, I know, it's horrible right now,
your lives are just I get it, like that was embarrassing.
Probably one of the worst games I've ever seen a
quarterback playing Jared Goff other than Jalen Hurts obvious with
(46:09):
the five turnovers. But yeah, it's it's just a unique
time right now football, So yeah, for me and my
biggest bets, Chad, I'm not gonna lie. People haven't bet
too heavily into these games, right I bet into the
Christmas games because they were so early in the week.
Speaker 4 (46:25):
Houston, I'm probably gonna take all my larger positions on
just because it's tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
And I want to be there with it. Seattle, I've bet.
I've been patient. I've been hoping to get the six
and a half. If I start seeing it tinker back
up the seven and a half, I will go very
heavy on Seattle at seven. I'm just hoping to get
the six and a half. I really hope that number
gets bet down the professionals. Cleveland, no surprise that people
the three and a half the threes. I've bet pretty
(46:51):
heavy into it, and I just have a feeling comes Sunday,
this bare side of the plus three tonna be one
of my bigger bets. So yeah, I really like the
dogs this weekend. I didn't say it because I'm not
I'm making myself now I can make it one of
my bigger bets. But I'm I'm very tempted here on
Vegas with them being plus one and a half. It's
just I can't believe that line is not a pick
let alone. Then minus one one, so Vegas could get
(47:13):
there for for right now though just the two sides
are lowed up on his Cleveland and most likely Houston.
Speaker 1 (47:22):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks Mo doll
our Underdog. Partly, I feel like we're giving ourselves an
opportunity here.
Speaker 2 (47:33):
Houston the Bears, Yeah, you gotta go Bears, Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (47:40):
Cleveland, simple rounded off. Let's just go the Vegas.
Speaker 2 (47:46):
Oh yeah, Vegas and then the favorites m a little.
Speaker 4 (47:50):
Tougher, shockingly, but right.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
I mean, people probably won't hear this in time, but
I put Green Bay in there. I think they won't
hear it any time unfortunately. Yeah, Hm, Tampa Chat. How
do we not put Tampa's.
Speaker 2 (48:03):
Money along Tampa rams?
Speaker 4 (48:06):
Yeah? Rams? I mean I do two and a half
on the rams for that one, and even though we
don't know yet, but I just want to do it
because it's good value. It feels like we have to
do the bills.
Speaker 1 (48:16):
Yeah, all right, Underdog parlay we're doing Uh who did
we say we did? Houston the Bears, Tennessee and Tennessee
Cleveland Narraiders, Favorites, Parlay. We're doing Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay,
the Rams and the Bills. Sharp versus Square, my friend
(48:40):
last week, I think we both won. Actually I had Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (48:43):
I had Bills ten and a half ten minus ten.
Speaker 2 (48:47):
All right, who do you got?
Speaker 4 (48:49):
You don't want to go first?
Speaker 2 (48:51):
All right, I'll go first. Give me Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (48:56):
I'll go Cleveland, Cleveland plus three.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
You're taking Cleveland even though there are brass falls. That's
why I because they were falls.
Speaker 3 (49:08):
I'll be the man here. I'll do what Chad should
have done. Give me Chicago plus three.
Speaker 1 (49:12):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
I like it all right, Sharpers's Square. I'm taking Tennessee.
Simon is taking the Chicago Bears. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. As you eavesdrop
on an intimate conversation between me and Simon. We will
be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night to recap
(49:37):
all of that misery from Sunday, watch or listen on
YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.
Speaker 2 (49:42):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
Downloads from Spotify, Apple pods Wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, Say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (49:51):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Speaker 1 (49:54):
Love you, Come on baby, one time, one time, one time,
one time, one times.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
H
Welcome to Sharper a Square presented by hard Rod Batt.
We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is
the show to make the squares sharper and makes the
wise guys pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
I am Chadman and I enjoined as always by my DFF,
my companion Mike Fadre my co Ho Professional Better Signing Hunt. Hello,
So I am in Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
What we thought was gonna be a terrible Christmas Day
for football actually turned out to be pretty dang good.
So I'll give props the NFL doesn't matter what they
put out their their product wise.
Speaker 4 (00:36):
They always end up getting good games.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
And so Evan Abrams had a crazy tweet Holiday games
Thanksgiving dogs three and oh Black Friday. Obviously the Bears,
your Bears dominated the Eagles, covered as a dog, and
then we went three and oh again on Christmas.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
So underdogs on the Holidays, seven and oh pretty pretty crazy.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
And yeah for our show, you know, I pushed on Dallas,
but we hit on Minnesota, hit on the Chiefs, lost
on the money line parlay obviously, the Lions lost out right.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
The Dallas Cowboys, now fifteen to one, set the record
most overs ever for a first half in an NFL season.
So thank you Dallas Cowboys. Once again Dak Prescott in
a meaningless game of December.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
My god, is he good?
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Simon as one of my favorite Englishmen, you are, let
me be one of the first to wish you a
happy Boxing.
Speaker 4 (01:34):
Day, Chad.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I finally got the real info in Boxing Day from
my mother. I asked my mom what Boxing Day was,
and it blew my mind. It's a Victorian era holiday.
It goes back to eighteen thirty three Boxing Day, and
apparently she said it was basically the rich people would
give their leftover gifts to their servants and they would
(01:58):
give them the day off after Christmas because have to
work on Christmas. So it wasn't as happy in jolly
as I thought I was going to be. It's still
a cool holiday because it's a tradition of people getting
off work and it's a holiday I wish America.
Speaker 4 (02:12):
I can't give it today. I saw people out working today.
Speaker 3 (02:14):
It's like, my god, we can't figure out a holiday
for Boxing Day, and we can't figure out the holiday
after the super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
I might need to run for president just on those
two basis.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Jack, give us the day off of Christmas and the
day off after the super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Well, look, you and I are working today. Matt Mitchell
was working today. That's yeah, exactly, we're working. We're struggling
through it. My Christmas was blown up.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
Because I tested positive for COVID.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I know Matt Mitchell's Christmas was a blast, even though
he was in the er or his wife was in
the er with one of his kids for most of
the Christmas Eve night.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
But here we are. We're getting through it.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
We are the Kansas City Chiefs of the podcast world.
We're going to get through it. We're going to play
our best. We're gonna be professionals. We're gonna cover.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
We're going to cover it all.
Speaker 4 (03:03):
Oh it even mention the Chiefs. They covered.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Like Chad just said, now, that's stats since nineteen seventies,
the Chiefs is a double digit dog at home fourteen
and oh against the spread, crazy.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
And beat it, can't beat it.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
All right, let's get into this thing because every week
we get some feedback from the professional betters who have
been listening to the show, and Simon.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
They got a lot of feedback for you. It's time
for sharp.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
Car half answer this boat.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
All right, Rain Range telephone range.
Speaker 4 (03:40):
Somebody said it maybe want to do man, Yeah, let's
start off with the Saturday games. They love Chad's bet
on the Texans, which I agreed with, right.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I think we were both in the same page as
that when we like that matchup a lot, and you know,
especially a game we could break down more. But I
feel like every probably talk to you probably had the
same and tality we do.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
It's just, yes, the.
Speaker 3 (03:59):
Chargers have been winning. This is gonna be the best
d line they've they faced since the Eagles. I remember
how much the Eagles were just in their face. I mean,
the Houston's d lin is probably better than the Eagles.
So that was a really fun discussion game. We've seen
that number come down now from peaked at two and
a half I think, and most books now down to
one one and a half on the Chargers.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
So yeah, professionally, he has definitely hit that one. Now.
Speaker 3 (04:18):
I don't know, not much to say about the Green
Bay Ravens. Unfortunately, we were spot on with our early
read on that one. We talked about grabbing the two
and a half. The pros did grab that, but I
would say in last twenty four hours, I haven't really
talked to many pros backing Green Bay now minus four
and a half without the unknown of who the quarterback
is going to be.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
So we're not even going to talk about this game now.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Well, in our other contest, it's probably gonna be play
for US at two and a half, just because that's
such a good number now, especially if Ulmar is gonna
miss that game for the Ravens.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
Let's get to the Sunday games.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
Really really interesting splits between the Eagles, which I think
the pros absolutely love, and the Joe public and us
on that Bill's side might have got a little call
out there.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
I really didn't think the.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Eagles would be play and starters, but apparently they're all
in and maybe we underestimated there might be an injury
to Josh Allen. So that's an interesting game. We're definitely
go to break down some more. Pros loved the Colts
a game I think you were on. I was definitely
on the other side of it. I'm kind of indifferent
about it. I just I just think the Jacks are
just so much a better team. So that was a
really interesting one, Tennessee. Not that shock and I told
(05:20):
you that felt like a really sharp play by you.
Pros love it. Every pro I've talked to is on
that side. It's gonna be the definition of pros verse jokes.
Pros are lining up on that side, the public is
hammering that same side. Gonna be a really interesting matchup.
Cleveland Browns is actually not as just pro as I
thought it was gonna be. The public is coming on
Cleveland as well. But that was a pro game. I
believe it opened four and a half. K suspension came out,
(05:43):
probably dropped it to four to three and a half,
like we did our show, you get out the three
and a half. Now you see the professional money coming
in very heavy, bumping this down to three at most books.
Even some two and a half's popped up, saw some
buyback from the pros, and this one back to three.
So that's another really interesting game and game I gave out.
I knew the pros to be on it. I love
the Seattle Seahawks. That's gonna be another draw the line
(06:05):
in the sand pros versus shows. Now, I did talk
to some really sharp groups that did take the Panthers
seven and a half, but they're indifferent right once it
gets to seven. They really just bought the number on
the hook. Just a really interesting game that went a
lot of back and forth. So yeah, the cap it out.
I'm on the other side of it. I'm gonna get
my professional brothers. I really like the Rams.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
They love the Falcons, they love the number on the Falcons,
they love the match of the Falcons.
Speaker 3 (06:28):
And I don't know if you have an opinion on
that one, but I thought it was richardesting. I just
I'm even more dug in. I bet even more and
one in the Rams, which went to seven seven and
a half. So that's a really fun game to break down.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
All right, Well, let's get into it. I think we
have so many.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Differences of opinions, and then we're on the same side
of a bunch of things. The Texans at the Chargers.
I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper
Square contest with all of our listeners because we both
love the Texan Here, I bet the Texans at two
and a half. I bet him on the money line
(07:05):
Demiko Ryan sixteen percent. ROI as an outright underdog as
a head coach. But look, this is all about betting
against the Chargers offensive line. I just will not be
fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys and looking
great against a team that did what it did against
(07:26):
Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't
be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and
getting that win when they when Jalen Hurtz had so
many turnovers in that game.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
I'm just not buying it.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
I know, justin Herbert is great, that'll buy This offensive
line is in trouble, and this offensive line is going
against the defense that I think is actually better than
the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
I want to make a point about that when we
talk about the Jags. So yeah, like I'm just going
to keep betting the Texans.
Speaker 3 (08:00):
Yeah, it's too interesting where this game ends up, because,
like you said, it's the as great as the Chargers
have been a lot of it has just been kind
of you know, that Egos game. They probably should have
lost it, right, things went their way, and we're giving
props to Herbert. He had a horrible game, but he
outlasted Hurts in that game where you know Hurts that
crucial turners at the very end of the game, driving
(08:21):
to win the game, and you know Herbert didn't as
bad as he playing that game, he played well enough
obviously to win it. Same with the Chiefs game. He
didn't play amazing, they only scored one touchdown, but they
outlast them, right, They won sixteen to three. That was
the exact type of game that Herbert always loses to Mahomes.
So I do want to give Herbert props. I know
people were saying, you know, he should be the MVP discussions,
(08:41):
that's too far going the one way, But I do
think he deserves get the respect of you know, this
is a guy that, like you said, he's lost both
his tackles, has a bad hand, still producing week to week.
So I get why the general public is backing them here, right,
why they trust him more in the sense that you know,
the playoffs that matchup the last time they played. You
(09:02):
do kind of have to burn those tapes of throw
it away, right, That was first games Herbert could possibly have.
But the defensive scheme that I think you can give
Herbert the same type of problems has not changed. And
it's even more so he doesn't have his you know,
starting left tackle and right tackle from that game against
one of the best team lines in football. So I
am right there with you, Chad. It's it's the toughest
(09:23):
part about our contest, right.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
There are five.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
Games this week we cannot play in our contest because
there's two on Saturday and the three obviously for Christmas.
Speaker 4 (09:30):
That's hard.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
That means we have eleven games left to pick from
from our contest, three of which I don't want to bet.
So now we have eight games. Yeah, games out of
the eight, so still all the time of our contest.
I love it, but it is really tough, and tons
of respect to the people that do play it. I
think we had what was it ten or three different
people starting to know to start the year for this contest.
Just really impressive. Because we say the lines are always moving.
(09:52):
It's a really tough contest. So I'm like, you wish
we could get this one. I love the Texas here,
but maybe it's for the I think it's one. It
would be one and a half in our contest. That's
where most lines are going.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
I don't think I care, like I'm betting more on
the money line for this game than I am on the.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
Side that's fair, you know me. I'm so into the
number two. How it's such a key number. I just
I feel much safer taking the two.
Speaker 1 (10:16):
Two and a half Seattle at Carolina. Uh, you loved
this game. You have it, As Simon says for Seattle,
I was surprised and sharp calls to hear that other
professionals were lining up on Seattle because like, the Panthers
(10:36):
are our beloved, right. We have been betting on the
Panthers and Bryce Young for two years now. We just
had a huge win with the Panthers against the Buccaneers
as home dogs last week.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
You make a very good point. Seattle's been great on
the road.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
The Panthers have been flip flopping good bad, good bad, good, good,
back good bad. Doesn't matter if they're at home or
on the road. So I need to hear more.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
I just need to know more.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
About forty eight hours since we discussed it, seventy two
hours since we discussed it.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Why is everybody loving the Seattle team?
Speaker 4 (11:12):
Well, it's just there's there's different classes.
Speaker 3 (11:15):
Like the Panthers as much love and props for given
to them, Seattle is in a totally different stratosphere. When
we talk about talent level, and I get it, like
can the Panthers keep up offensively?
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Right?
Speaker 3 (11:27):
We've seen Bryce Shung have these incredible performances where he
can keep his team in any game. Yeah, that can
easily happen. That's why the public is coming in on
this team, right, They kind of the same view. I
think that you're kind of can hear a little bit
of like, is Seattle really seven and a half points
better than Carolina? Which I guess in a vacuum they're
probably not, But I think most people that models if
you keep simulating this game, Seattle absolutely dominates this matchup,
(11:51):
you know, fifty five fifty seven percent of the time,
which again, that's an edge to me. That's something I'm
looking for. And you know, just looking at this game.
At Carolina game, we talked about the Bucks. They were
in total control of that game and Baker just had
a total meltdown that second half for Bryce Young stepped up,
had big time throws heading into that. If the Panthers
(12:12):
had lost, I honestly would have this game at ten.
So I moved it, you know, a point and a
half because they did win that game. It feels like
the books in the public have moved at three, three
and a half points because of that, and it just
feels like a total reaction where we've seen this Panthers
team right when there's you know, at home against the Rams.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
That game they won that game.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
If you go back and watch it, that was probably
one of Stafford's worst games, and he still put up
twenty eight points. So we've seen the teams can move
the ball against his Panthers team, it's all about Bryce
Young keeping up with him.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
This is different.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
This Seatles defense is just so legit and defensively, their
defense are front I think you could argue they have
two of the best five d tackles in all football
this season, especially against the run. So it's gonna be
a one dimensional game. It's all getting our Bryce. Youong
to beat them pass in and I already gave you
all those stats about know Sam Donald, when he's a
big favorite, the books are telling you something, right. It's
(13:04):
a unique thing for him. He's been a favorite of
seven points or more twelve times in his career. He's
nine to three against the spread, twelve and zero straight
up in those games. So Sam Donald, we've seen these
last two years. This is the only time he's been
these bigger favorites these last two years. He's lived up
to those numbers. He tends to perform very well against
bad defenses. So this we saw yesterday with the Lions team.
(13:24):
When teams are playing for an automatic bid or just
to keep their playoff lives alive, sometimes they collapseneath the
press the lines.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
This is the exact same thing for the Panthers.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
The Panthers need to win this game and they don't
need to care about the Bucks next week. How many
times we've seen these teams look ahead and have a
total letdown this spot, So it's it is painful. I
don't want to do this to the Panthers, but it
makes me happy knowing no matter what, if it's three,
if it's two, we'll be on the Panthers next week anyway.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
So I'm getting off on this week.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
Chen I love Seattle in this spot, but it's it's
it's something I've done with Panthers this seed. They've just
been up and down week to week, and it just
feels like a really bad spot for them with the
lookhead for the books next week.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
Jacksonville at Indy, that's the game that I want to
talk about. You and I are against each other on
this game. Jacksonville's a six and a half point favorite.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
Number one.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
I just feel like this is the ultimate by low
Sell high right. We saw what the Patriot, We saw
what the Colts did on Monday Night football against the Niners.
Couldn't cover anyone, lost by three touchdowns. We saw what
the Jags did against the Broncos, winning going away on
the road against a team that very likely is competing.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
For the number one seed. Here, I have a theory.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
I don't think the Broncos defense is actually or the
Broncos offense is actually as good as they're being given
credit for. And I think the bo Nick's miracle comebacks
have sort of elevated them because look, they didn't do
that great against Jacksonville. Then they turned around and didn't
(15:03):
do that great against the Chiefs that had a crapload
of backups playing in the game. So I think by
that transitive property, the Jacksonville Jaguars are being a little
bit overrated here. And I will say that home dogs
have more than a field goal off a blowout sixty
one percent against the spread. That one no fog, my friend,
that is clear as day. Indianapolis Colts plus six and
(15:28):
a half.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
Yeah, And that's that's why I like the the Denver part.
Speaker 3 (15:33):
I get why people have hated, right, their defense probably
isn't as good as we give them credit for it either.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
They've had a pre self schedule.
Speaker 3 (15:40):
But the problems I did give the Boe Nicks is
same thing with Caleb Williams, Like these comeback wins. What
more are you looking for in your second year quarterback?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Like these? They keep winning these one score games Denver,
which is really impressive to me. And I'm with you.
Am I going to be hammering them for Super Bowl odds? No?
They have to get caught eventually Denver.
Speaker 3 (16:01):
And this jag where I seem a little bit what
you're talking about here that's very true, is that this
is peak right. This is probably them being super valued
by the general public. I don't know if it's so
much by the models. And that's that's what I'm having
a hard time with here. So Chad's on the sharp side.
This number to me, just like last week the Colts,
I believe they opened six or six and a half
(16:22):
against the forty nine ers. It closed four and a
half by kickoff. So this number here, like Chad's saying,
there's just six and a half a hard rock here
in Jersey. It's it literally just went to six. I've
seen a couple of books already moved to five and
a half as we speak right now. So the Pros,
they're with Chad, They're coming in heavy on this cold side.
I just I gave you guys historical numbers. I can't
go against it. It's just every time I think the
(16:43):
Jags will eventually slip up here. It doesn't matter if
it was Minshew, doesn't matter if it was Blake Bortles.
It's just they've had tons of trash or the quarterback position,
and the Jags always, for some reason find a way
to cover and beat this Colts team. Now when they
have a well machine on offense, the Jaguars, the Trevor
Lawrence playing at the highest lebe I've ever seen.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
I'm not gonna lie to each other. I'm just I
can't do it. I can't go against them.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
So people betting this one, if you are with Chad
and you're taking Indianapolis, like I said, it is the
sharp side, you gotta grab the number now, because I
do think the Pros are gonna bet this down For
me that I like the Jags now that I'm seeing thelignement,
I'll just be patient.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
I'll take the five and a half.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
If anything, I'll just throw them in a teaser and
just take the money line this Jaguars team. But like
I said, if we come Sunday morning, CHaGS really like
Chad saying I need this golts one in the contest,
I'm not gonna fight you on it because I do
believe you're right that is the sharp side and the
Jagger due for a letdown.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
It's just I can't get over how good this Jags
offense is.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Even I went back and watched that Denver that Denver game,
Liams in his bag man like him skimming up to
open these guys where rub routes using that tight end
to come out in the flat route to bring the
cornerback down so there'll be a higher route, you know,
in the middle of the field. And just there's multiple
times watching there's just guys open against them in the middlefield.
So I think, I said, I just I'm seck the
(18:04):
Rams with me and the Rams now I think Jackson
have won me so much money or these last couple
of weeks.
Speaker 4 (18:08):
I just think they're just so undervalued by the general public.
Speaker 3 (18:11):
Soul could be a week that Chad's much sharper than
me with this COVID cold because he's not in only
this game, the Tennessee game.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
You were. You were ahead of it on both of
these games, being the sharp side.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Well, let's talk about Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Maybe I should just have COVID every week and then
I'll just have clarity, fog for fog for everything else,
but clarity when it comes to the lines.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
So that's the best way to live.
Speaker 1 (18:32):
Yeah, No, orally, Well, part of it is like, uh,
for the past thirty six hours, I've been quarantining from
my family, and which is actually annoying because you know,
my kids are home for a limited time and they're
old enough now that it's actually just really fun to
(18:52):
go out with them, Like they have real things to
say and real conversations and it's just blast to be
hanging with them. And now I'm just sitting here in
my freaking office because I can't do anything.
Speaker 3 (19:07):
Christmas miracle, people, a man in his fifties realize his
kids have personalities incredible.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Don't make me weeze New Orleans and Tennessee. This line
is now down to two.
Speaker 1 (19:19):
And a half at hard Rocket, opened at three and
a half we've been betting it, or at least I have.
I also bet Tennessee on the money line. So look,
you've said it, the wise guys are on it. I
don't love that there is a majority of the tickets
coming in on the Titans. It makes me feel like
(19:40):
we might be backing a little bit of a public dog.
But I just want to feel better after you said
the wise guys have been pounding this as well.
Speaker 4 (19:47):
Yeah, and that's fair.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
It could it could be a little bit of a
public dogs what we talked about, right, this is a
Tennessee team that we've all left for dead, and I
think I gave it up. They won like three o
their last five, like they had been winning games. It's
been pretty impress so not that shocking. I didn't I
have not seen the ticket stuff, but you're right, like,
I'll probably get more infu on that as the week
goes along here. But yeah, I, like I said, you
(20:09):
were spot on it when it was three. The two
and a half is still a great number as well.
I'm I'm like I said, I'm banned from betting it,
but if I was going to bet it, I would
be joining chatter. I think the early read on Tennessee
is right, and it's another game. I wouldn't be shocked
if he did put in the contest because it's probably
a game that should be a pick. But like me,
I'm with the public. I still think the books are
(20:30):
underrating Shuck and how great he's been for this Saints' offense.
So I really can't wait to see how this game
ends up because either my model is way off and
I'm overrating Shuck and I'm so in love with this
guy because I have all this money on him to
be Rookie of the Year, or I'm spot on that
he is legit, which I cannot believe because going back
watching his college tape, I just can't believe that he
(20:50):
actually is a good quarterback. So yeah, this Saints game
is really fun because it's not that it dictates the future,
but I feel like it's it's another game that decides,
you know, is Chuck the best rookie this year? He's
gonna win Rookie of the Year because this is a
true test. Right, He's had a great test with the
Panthers the Bucks, those were great, great wins, but this
(21:11):
one is really interesting because they just had a blow
went at home now they're going on the road.
Speaker 4 (21:15):
We'll see how this young rookie deals with success. That way.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
I'm this is this is not going to be a
corner TV game. This is going to be in the
four box. I will so be watching this game for
so many reasons. There's actually going to be a blast.
And by the way, kudos to Mike McCoy. Mike McCoy,
who was kind of a nondescript, forgettable coach with the Chargers,
(21:42):
has come in whatever he did, has highlighted how bad
Brian Callahan was right because with with whether it was culture,
whether it was discipline, whether it was play calling, running
the ball, running the ball, how he's managing this team
generally has just changed it dramatically and turn them into
(22:03):
much more of Ay safer Bet, I think you can
lift yourself imposed ban.
Speaker 4 (22:09):
I don't want that. I respect to the fans. I
just I cost them in myself way too much of
money with my stupid opinions on Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Yeah, but the flip side is you could be costing
them money now by banning it like I'm on it,
I'm making I am now making money on the Titans.
Speaker 4 (22:24):
It's crazy what a world are you live.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
In the COVID Man.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
The COVID brings clarity Pittsburgh at Cleveland, Simon, Cleveland Browns
are a three point underdog at home. Like we said,
the land has moved from four and a half to
four to three and a half to three.
Speaker 2 (22:41):
Cleveland Browns are.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Going to be our brass balls Better the Week presented
by Hard Rock Bet.
Speaker 4 (22:51):
You know what it takes. It takes brass balls.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
Who knows what's going to happen in this game.
Speaker 1 (22:57):
If the if the Ravens lose on Saturday Night, well,
Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters.
Speaker 2 (23:04):
We know Dk metcalf is not going to be playing.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
I think we're we're leaning into the division rivalry. We're
leaning into Miles Garrett going for the sack record. We're
leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road.
It's an anti raw ras spot all of those things.
As you pointed out, this is where I want to
say a bet on a team with nothing to play
(23:29):
for versus a bet on a team with something to
play for. In the last two weeks of the season,
sixty against the spread you said it more eloquently, but
now that I remember it and it's in my notes.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
I wanted to share it.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Yeah, and like Chad just said, it's a very unique
spot here where we could be getting a great number
because Pittsburgh could simply be sitting.
Speaker 4 (23:49):
All their guys, right.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
This is a really fun game that you know, the Ravens,
I think they're up to minus or plus four and
a half now. Yeah, the books are kind of telling
you they don't think they're going to win there. So
the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons
of public money coming in on the Steelers team because
they're just seeing the minus three, right with a Pittsburgh
team that's been beating pretty good competition these lest weeks,
(24:12):
playing a Browns team that y'all know, they're just not
very good, especially offensively, and they've had now they lost
Junkins to an injury, the running back. Like it's just
it's a nightmare for the Browns. But we've been talking
all season this Browns team. You know, they we were
a little disappointed them because their defense, like it wasn't
shown up the last couple of weeks. Yeah, you know,
even that Bills game, you can't really say they dominate
(24:33):
or showed up in that game totally. It was just
Buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half.
But you know it was another game was close, right,
And you just go through other games. You know, the
Tennessee game they lost at home, I think they lost
by two, and that Bills game, even though they should
have probably lost by ten or eleven, they only lost
by three. So we've just seen this Browns team, even
as bad as they've been down the stretcher, they still
(24:54):
have been playing really tough in close games at home.
And Chad just nailed it. It's like, it's this is
gonna be the Miles Garrett party, and I love the
irony of it if it is gonna be Mason Rudolph
being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against
all that just coming together, and yeah, it's it's really interesting.
We talk all the time about how I gave out
(25:14):
that stat five the last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh
outright at home, and you know that's with you know,
Deshaun Watson's backups and just disaster of the season these
Browns have had these last couple years. They've just continually
beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home, so never.
Speaker 4 (25:29):
Was gonna avoid it. We talked about it in the contest.
Speaker 3 (25:31):
If you've got to get the three and a half
is a great number to lock in, because that number
just felt like it was gonna keep falling. And now
that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens,
that f the Ravens lose Pittsburgh, they've locked up the
title of the North. They don't need to play anybody.
I just don't see Tom and riskin all these veteran
guys they have playing this game. So this was a
game you don't see Rogers. And you know, as much
(25:52):
as we like to hate on Rodgers, he's been really
impressed in Yeah, so it's it's it's gonna be pretty
interesting how different this team is in a game that
just means nothing them against a Browns team that I
think this is going to mean something to them.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
I think they're gonna be.
Speaker 3 (26:08):
Playing hard, especially since your Sanders, who ye still playing
for a job here, So think me and you were
in sync. Youre chatty, And if this is two and
a half in our contest, I'd still take it as
long as you're getting a good plus number on.
Speaker 1 (26:17):
The Browns agree, Simon, you and I mind meld. I
hope I don't give you COVID.
Speaker 4 (26:23):
It's pretty one of my bigger bets this week. It's
like I might really load up a bunch of door
in the Browns.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
But it's a great holb We totally are Matt Mitchell.
I'm throwing you a curveball here because I want to
add in Tampa.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Bay at Miami. The number is five and a half six. Simon,
you didn't mention.
Speaker 1 (26:41):
It in sharp calls at all, But this just is
continuing to feel like a big number for me for
the Bucks because they have not been able to execute
effectively at any point or cover a big number like this.
And Devon Achan could run all over this team. As
we've see, they have not been great at stopping run.
(27:04):
So why aren't we having a bigger conversation about Miami.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
I just I'm with you. You're spot on.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Miami is definitely the side on the spot here. But
like I've been talking about this Bucks team, this isn't
going to continue. They're gonna have a game where they
do get right. This offense, the weapons that have age
is too good. Like what you're saying is true to
me for them.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Defensively, right, Miami should be able to run the ball,
but you saw that last week Quin yours, you can't
complete the ball ten yards now field chet like he
was throwing in the double triple team. So I think
your idea is sound and right. Like. If this is
too a this would be one of my bigger bets
of the week.
Speaker 3 (27:43):
I just I can't be bet in this quarterback that
can make completions against a team that is insanely desperate
at this point. I mean, talk about a dream scenario
to get right. If you were the Bucks, you were
now facing one of the worst secondaries in all of football,
like Mike Evans. Guy when a Mecca Buca Baker, No,
we've talked, Baker's.
Speaker 4 (28:00):
Had an injury. This is a no excuse type of game.
Speaker 3 (28:03):
He should be able to move the ball and pass
it all over the field against them Carolina. We saw
in the first half he wasn't rhythm. The second half
we've reverted back to that. We we keep talking with
this Baker. That's just the thirty ninth out of thirty
nine quarterbacks in the league in EPA per play.
Speaker 4 (28:16):
He's just he was horrible. So I think you're read
is sound. I'm just I'm with the public here.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
I'm back in Tampa and I'm taking the five and
a half and I've seen actually some pro Moneyeah, that's
not even gonna talk much about it coming on the Bucks.
This did go from five to five and a half,
and now I'm seeing a couple of books move to six.
So yeah, it's it's an interesting game where I think
your read is right in the sense that if you
want to play that playoff stat we gave out, the
Dolphins are technically a sixty percent play right here, right there,
(28:42):
this is the spot you're supposed to take them. But
I am totally totally worried about them, just offensively with
Queen Yours. It feels like they got the call right.
Don't put in Zach Wilson, put it in the other kid.
Let's let's start losing some games here. There's no point
of us being eight and nine. Let's go and nine
wherever they're trying to get to now. So it's it
(29:02):
just feels like Miami's totally giving up on the season.
Speaker 1 (29:05):
I was going to talk about the Giants and the Raiders,
the battle for the number one overall pick, because the
Raiders have now become one point underdogs. They were one
and a half point favorites when we spoke on Tuesday.
But the news is that brock Bauers is on IRS.
Speaker 2 (29:22):
He's not going to be playing.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
That's why I moved.
Speaker 2 (29:24):
I think that's why it moved.
Speaker 1 (29:25):
But also, the Giants aren't going to have Andrew Thomas,
and they've got other O line injuries, and the Giants,
as we've seen the past couple of years, are just
a much different team when Andrew Thomas isn't playing. And
so are we balancing out sort of the disadvantages when
Andrew Thomas isn't playing and Brock Bauers isn't playing, And
(29:47):
then do we just go with the team we know
is going to have the psycho coach who could give
a shit about draft position.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Yeah, Like, to me, this is number five or number
six for our contest comes Sunday. Like, I love this game,
even though I know I shouldn't because there are I
just said, there's so many unknowns here. And you did
see the line flip when the brock Bowers news got,
you know, came out just because he is so important,
I mean, he is he coming to the season, he
was my number one great tight end. I think I
have him at number two now, behind Trey McBride. But
(30:15):
still for their value to the spread, they're probably only
a handful of tight ends even command half a point,
let alone a point. And yeah, seeing this flip three points,
it feels like a bit extreme for the brock Bowers news.
So I know Raiders are super public side. I've talked
to most bookmakers. They they're basically taking a ton of Raiders' money.
(30:35):
I still think it's the right side. And then that
stat I gave out on Tuesday just keeps ringing in
my head. Right, you have two teams, you know, below
three percent one percentage playing this late in the year.
It's only happened four times in NFL history, I think
since nineteen ninety the home team four and oh straight
up in that exact spot.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
So you know, the numbers bear it out.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
I know it's a small sample, but it kind of
shows that when there's two bad teams there is a
slight home advantage to it.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
And you know, Chad just gave it out there.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Now the Giants, who already have a bad offens line,
now they're down again. Their best offensive tackle playing against
a D line as much crap we want to give
to the to the Raiders, that's probably their only strong
thing we have defensively, and that's what we talk about.
Max Crosby gets to pick left or right, He picks
whatever side he wants to. So really unique spot here
for this Vegas team that I think offensively, not that
(31:24):
they've found something against Houston, but I feel like they
did right they kind of figure it out. It's just
a type of team that you know, we know they
have the weapons, they just never could put it together
consistently because their offensive line is so bad. And I
know a couple of people ask me about that. Do
you expect the Giants bill to take advantage of that?
You've seen it with the Giants their biggest weakness, especially
against the Runners, because they still have linebackers. So Genty
(31:45):
is the exact type of running back you need that
can neutralize a good defensive line.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
So, like I said, this is a game where I
don't know how you feel about it right now.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
I just excuse this game came up by a vision
because again we only could pick out of eleven games
for our contest. I could easily see this being one
fifth or sixth game we talk about just because it's
a game I like and it's just gross enough for
us to make into the contest.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
So I don't feel that strongly about it.
Speaker 1 (32:11):
And the rest of the games we're talking about, I
think we're all on the fence about so I'm happy
to have it. In consideration, Philadelphia at Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (32:22):
Buffalo is a.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
One point favorite right now, it's come down from two
and a half. I think the news is really about
Josh Allen. He's been limited in practice because of his foot,
and I think also the Eagles have said they're going
to play their starters, so talk about you know, in theory,
the Eagles kind of have nothing to play for, whereas
(32:44):
the Bills actually have something very important to play for.
So it's a little bit of a turning that stat
on its head. You would want to be on the
Eagles here. Unfortunately, I've bet into the Bills at two
and a half, I bet them at one. I bet
them on the money line, So I'm over exposed on
the Bills here. I don't feel strongly that we need
(33:05):
to that we need to play.
Speaker 4 (33:08):
Sorry, Peter out there the end, Yeah, I'm right there
with you. It's I I wanted to be on the Bills.
I like this about a lot for the Bostule. We
just talked about.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
It's a team to me that they're going to be
putting the foot on the gas, like really want to
beat the shitt This Eagles team has it hid in
the playoffs for the Eagles, those have got total letdown spot.
Like they've been partying, you know, a couple of nights
after they won their division, and they have a bunch
of guys coming back from injuries that I don't know
if they're gonna play them in this game.
Speaker 4 (33:36):
Talking about Lane Johnson the order. So it's it's a
weird one chat where I was right there with you.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
I honestly haven't bet anything on the Bills yet. I
do think I'm gonna take a position on them. I've
just been waiting, like you to learn more about Josh Allen.
Is it the foot, is it a bad ankle? What
is the injury? Is he going to practice Josh Allen?
You know, the biggest thing I always talk about is availability.
The greatest strength of Josh. Honest he simply does not
miss time. He is one of the toughest guys in
(34:04):
entire league. It's why we all love him, right, not
just the numbers he puts up, but it's just a
guy that he takes insane hits, he gets the shit
kicked out of him, never miss his games. He never
missed his games. He truly is Superman. And I've talked
about it his future.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
It's gonna be interesting how his life goes, you know,
how what's josh Aan gonna be?
Speaker 3 (34:23):
Like a thirty five thirty four after playing the style
he's played, he's twenty nine. So to me, if he's
good to go chet, if he gets cleared, if he
gets the shot, I don't mind betting the Bills here.
But if there is no practice all week for him
and he's coming in kind of limp here, it's not great.
Like this is a legit good Eagles defensive line that's
gonna give him problem, especially if he's playing on one foot.
(34:44):
So this is a game where I thought for sure
we'd have it as one of our five. I don't
have enough info cheat it might be a game I
just kept it avoid and I don't know if it
can be there. But I do, like I said, I
do want to bet on the Bills. Do not like
this all for the Seaguals team, and you know it's
it's gonna be interesting following this injury port all day
today because you know it's Christmas. There's a holiday, so
obviously Josh in practice yesterday. I believe we heard he
(35:06):
was limited maybe on Wednesday. Yeah, he does a full
walk through, unlike Lamar, Like Lamar hasn't done anything highly
don't like Lamar plays. If we get at least a
walk through with Josh Allen, I'll feel much more comfortable
bet in the s Bills team knowing it's gonna be
him and not Mitch Trubisky.
Speaker 1 (35:21):
It's so funny when you said his greatest strength and
we don't know what his life is going to be.
Like I was thinking, well, you know, he's having a baby,
he just got married, He's got so much going for him,
and you're like, thirty four to thirty five, can he
still be taking these hits? But that's because I've learned
to love my kids.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
I just he gives me major Lway vibes. Like you
remember Elway's knees at the end of his career, they
were just falling.
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Off the bone.
Speaker 2 (35:49):
The dude could barely walk.
Speaker 4 (35:50):
Yeah, It just makes me feel the same.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
It was just like Elway was a crazy freak athlete,
just like Josh Allen or Ben Roethlisberger, another great comp
Ben was just like him, impossible to take down in
the pocket, his giant statue. The guy couldn't move from
his left to his right at the end of his
career because his knees were just so shot. So I
just that's my only word with Josh Allen. There's nothing
else to worry about with him, right, he is Superman.
But it's just houses by gonna help up this guy.
(36:12):
Every time they get close in the red zone. It
just feels like his body's the batter and d He's
just one of a con Josh Allen. So it's it's
crazy he's held up this long. Like I said, this
injury it's the only one I can really think of
this season that spooked me about him, Right, he's pretty
much all season.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
We just don't know.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
Is it a broken bone the foot, is it an ankle?
We Honestly, everything I've read like I'm looking right now
on social media, no one knows. It's people just literally
they're just throwt shit against one hooping something sticks. No
one knows what the real injury is. I honestly think
if he is limited and then does the walkthrough, it's
just whatever a bone, BRUI. I don't think it's anything
serious because Josh is the type of guy that he
knows like he just he can't miss any games for
(36:49):
this team.
Speaker 1 (36:51):
Social media is a font of truth, as we all know.
Chicago Bears plus three at San Francisco. It got up
to three and a half and like immediately got bought
back down. I don't know, man, Like I'm so emotionally
invested here, Like it's gonna be Sunday night, Hopefully by
then I'll be coming out of my COVID stupor and
(37:13):
I'll be watching it with my kids and like enjoying
it as a family that acts as if we're from Chicago,
even though we live in the middle of Connecticut. But
every week feels like a letdown spot for the Bears,
And every week now feels like the Niners are overrated,
especially coming off five touchdowns and everyone acting like Brock
Purty is the MVP who could have been?
Speaker 2 (37:37):
So what do we do here?
Speaker 1 (37:39):
It's like high Point High Point by Hi by High
Everyone's in Vidia in this game.
Speaker 3 (37:45):
Yeah, it's it's unfortunately I can't put Chad down. Chad's
Bears down, and we're saying who who they beaten? Because
they have I mean, you look, beat everybody.
Speaker 4 (37:52):
Right, and they be playoff teams, right.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
They beat Pittsburgh probably gonna a playoff team, beat the
Eagles a playoff team.
Speaker 4 (37:58):
They'd be Green Bay who because the Lions they are
now a playoff team? Right?
Speaker 3 (38:02):
So you know as much you want to get the
Bears because all their games come down to the final
two minutes.
Speaker 4 (38:07):
You know they've put it together this season.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
Right, as horrible as their defense has been, what are
they leading the league chat and turnover rate? Because your
quarterback doesn't turn the ball over, your defense gets picked.
So they've found their identity, like they really didn't the
Ben Johnson right, No, stupid turners. Offensively and defensively, they bend,
they give up yards, no doubt about it, but they
don't break.
Speaker 4 (38:26):
They get the turnovers they hold up in the red zone.
Speaker 3 (38:29):
So I think this Bears can be an undervalued and
just looking the splits too, like there's a bunch of
different books I'm looking at right now.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
The tickets are pretty even.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
All the money is on the forty nine Ers, like
the pro is clearly in the public have taken a
liking to this Niners team, So I think.
Speaker 4 (38:44):
The three is right.
Speaker 3 (38:45):
I've talked about a nauseum this Niners team. Yes, they've
been winning games, but I've been super suspect of this
defense just being held together by bubblegum, Like eventually it's
going to come back on you. You can't be the
worst team in the league on getting pressure on the
quarterback and not have a bite in the ass once
you play good teams like the forty nine Ers. They've
been getting away with it because they've been insane offensively.
(39:06):
I mean Mac Jones, I believe is still the number two,
number two quarterback and passer rating against playoff teams this season.
Speaker 4 (39:13):
I think Brock is now number five.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
So it's like it doesn't matter which quarterback has been
in Their offense has been humming this season the Niners team,
So I get why the public's coming in on them.
They look at this matchup and they think that they're
just gonna roll the Spars team. But I'm telling you,
I think the Bears offensively can keep this close, and
we've seen it. Purty does throw those fifty to fifty
balls every now and then, and that's against gonna be
against embarrassing that loves quarterbacks that do that, right, they're
(39:36):
always looking to very take advantage of that. And you
know they give these unique looks with the leather drop back,
the defensive lineman, whatever it is. They've kind of had
these looks where these quarterbacks don't see these type of
schemes as Bears teams doing, which is high risk variants. Right,
They're leaving guys wide open to double team certain guys
where you know they have the numbers. They show that
they really did a get great against Jalen Hurts, Right,
(39:56):
they're really doubling aj They're letting our number three receiver
run solo or free because they just knew it hurts.
He's gonna look at his first read, especially when he's
getting blit. So just once again, really impressed by what
this Bears team does. I'm with Chad. Maybe I'm like Chad,
I'm too close to it, but if our contest is
three and a half.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
There's no way we avoid this one. There's no way.
I just with the hook. I love it.
Speaker 3 (40:18):
And again I have this game model of two so
if I'm getting a point and a half on the
team I really like in this Bears team against a
forty Nite team that I am very suspicious of, I'm
gonna take that number every time. So yeah, I love
this game and it's huge, huge playoff ramifications this one.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
This game, shockingly, I can't believe about to say this.
Speaker 3 (40:35):
This game could easily decide the one seat in the NFC.
So I can't wait to see it. This Bears team, man,
this is a once in a lifetime type of season
if you're a Bears fan, truly is Well, look.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
We're gonna have to make a call because we also
talked about the Rams and that number is going to
be eight and a half in the contest. We also
we don't want a Sunday night game in a mind
game in the contest, so you know what I mean, We'll.
Speaker 3 (41:04):
See that that game we can be patient on because
like again, one of more public books now is down
to seven and a half. So, like I said, the
pros they are coming in Atlanta. I'm more than happy
to let that scare us off and we avoid the
Rams because I have talked to I'm free and no
betting the Rams. This summer, this this December, I probably
should get off the train. I just can't help it.
It's like they just McVeigh is a covering machine in
(41:25):
this month. I've talked about it, so I have no issue.
I was backing off that Rams side just because I,
like I said last week and see that I'm too
close to it. But at some point we're gonna be
getting the best of the number. Like this is now
seven and a half. I mean, if I have that
number a ten, how can I avoid that Rams number?
So it's it's just just streeting how much love Atlanta
is getting. It's just you know, like you Chad talked
(41:48):
about Drake London's back, you know with Kirk.
Speaker 4 (41:52):
Should be a game.
Speaker 3 (41:53):
They should be able to keep close against a Rams
team that we've seen it now right Their their defense
looks like it might be their Achilles heal. They can
be run on if certain holes in their secondary of
this Ramps team. So that's that's a game where I'm
not gonna force to make it one of our five. Chicago.
I would force us to make that one of our five.
I really have a lot bet on that Chicago number.
Speaker 2 (42:12):
Oh.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
I love for Chicago to be in the contest for us.
I feel like we're making a decision right now. I
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(42:34):
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Speaker 2 (43:16):
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Speaker 2 (43:37):
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Speaker 2 (43:53):
All right, simon, biggest bets.
Speaker 4 (43:55):
Pull up those pants and be a man quick. I'll
give us some stats.
Speaker 3 (44:00):
A lot of people have asked, what are the odds
of this playoff pool that we have this year? So
I basically ran my model. What were the odds before
the season of Joe Burrow, Lamar and Patrick Mahomes all
missing the playoffs? Point zero zero seven jaed Jesus, that's
the odds of us having this outcome of this season
on just the AFC side. So, I mean, this is
(44:22):
like what I dream of with football. I'm gonna lose.
I have someone to lose a decent amount of money.
The only team I have left in the AFC that
I will win money on is if the Bills make
the Super Bowl and play the Rams or the Eagles.
That's that's the last hope I have, just because, like
I've talked about, I just didn't think Drake may or
Bonix would be the type of guys i'd have any
type of Super Bowl futures on.
Speaker 4 (44:39):
And obviously I have some regrets with that one.
Speaker 3 (44:42):
It's favors that I saw teams that missed the playoffs
that are winning fifteen games in the prior season two
thousand and eight New England Patriots. Everyone remembers, obviously the
torn A cl with Tom Brady twenty sixteen Carolina Panthers,
which makes sense, right, That was kind of a fools
goed fifteen to one Cam Newton team that just fell
off the next season. The twenty twenty five Chiefs and
(45:03):
the twenty twenty five Detroit Lines. Wow, pretty insane, right,
two of them in the same season. Another one I
really loved, which was the one seeds. So one seeds
to be the one seed the year before and then
not make the playoffs since two thousand. We had in
two thousand and one Tennessee in the Giants, two thousand
and eight New England in the Dallas, two thousand and
(45:24):
ninth Tennessee and the Giants Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (45:26):
That's kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (45:27):
Three times them, twenty twenty two Tennessee and Green Bay,
then obviously twenty twenty five the Chiefs in Detroit. So
it's just really unique. Right We always talk about the
window closes pretty quick? Do we think the Chiefs windows closed? No, Detroit,
I know the public has left them for dead. You're
a Detroit fan, get ready for it. I Am going
(45:47):
to be betting all of your futures next year. You
literally went from the first place schedule to I think
next year you get Arizona, Tennessee and the Giants. That's
gonna be insane. You guys get fully healthy next year.
So the Troy fans, I know, it's horrible right now,
your lives are just I get it, like that was embarrassing.
Probably one of the worst games I've ever seen a
quarterback playing Jared Goff other than Jalen Hurts obvious with
(46:09):
the five turnovers. But yeah, it's it's just a unique
time right now football, So yeah, for me and my
biggest bets, Chad, I'm not gonna lie. People haven't bet
too heavily into these games, right I bet into the
Christmas games because they were so early in the week.
Speaker 4 (46:25):
Houston, I'm probably gonna take all my larger positions on
just because it's tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
And I want to be there with it. Seattle, I've bet.
I've been patient. I've been hoping to get the six
and a half. If I start seeing it tinker back
up the seven and a half, I will go very
heavy on Seattle at seven. I'm just hoping to get
the six and a half. I really hope that number
gets bet down the professionals. Cleveland, no surprise that people
the three and a half the threes. I've bet pretty
(46:51):
heavy into it, and I just have a feeling comes Sunday,
this bare side of the plus three tonna be one
of my bigger bets. So yeah, I really like the
dogs this weekend. I didn't say it because I'm not
I'm making myself now I can make it one of
my bigger bets. But I'm I'm very tempted here on
Vegas with them being plus one and a half. It's
just I can't believe that line is not a pick
let alone. Then minus one one, so Vegas could get
(47:13):
there for for right now though just the two sides
are lowed up on his Cleveland and most likely Houston.
Speaker 1 (47:22):
My dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks Mo doll
our Underdog. Partly, I feel like we're giving ourselves an
opportunity here.
Speaker 2 (47:33):
Houston the Bears, Yeah, you gotta go Bears, Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (47:40):
Cleveland, simple rounded off. Let's just go the Vegas.
Speaker 2 (47:46):
Oh yeah, Vegas and then the favorites m a little.
Speaker 4 (47:50):
Tougher, shockingly, but right.
Speaker 3 (47:53):
I mean, people probably won't hear this in time, but
I put Green Bay in there. I think they won't
hear it any time unfortunately. Yeah, Hm, Tampa Chat. How
do we not put Tampa's.
Speaker 2 (48:03):
Money along Tampa rams?
Speaker 4 (48:06):
Yeah? Rams? I mean I do two and a half
on the rams for that one, and even though we
don't know yet, but I just want to do it
because it's good value. It feels like we have to
do the bills.
Speaker 1 (48:16):
Yeah, all right, Underdog parlay we're doing Uh who did
we say we did? Houston the Bears, Tennessee and Tennessee
Cleveland Narraiders, Favorites, Parlay. We're doing Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa Bay,
the Rams and the Bills. Sharp versus Square, my friend
(48:40):
last week, I think we both won. Actually I had Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (48:43):
I had Bills ten and a half ten minus ten.
Speaker 2 (48:47):
All right, who do you got?
Speaker 4 (48:49):
You don't want to go first?
Speaker 2 (48:51):
All right, I'll go first. Give me Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (48:56):
I'll go Cleveland, Cleveland plus three.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
You're taking Cleveland even though there are brass falls. That's
why I because they were falls.
Speaker 3 (49:08):
I'll be the man here. I'll do what Chad should
have done. Give me Chicago plus three.
Speaker 1 (49:12):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
I like it.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
I like it all right, Sharpers's Square. I'm taking Tennessee.
Simon is taking the Chicago Bears. This has been Sharper Square,
part of the Volume podcast network. We will be back
on Sharper Square YouTube on Sunday morning. As you eavesdrop
on an intimate conversation between me and Simon. We will
be back on Sharper Square YouTube Sunday night to recap
(49:37):
all of that misery from Sunday, watch or listen on
YouTube a Sharper Square like this video.
Speaker 2 (49:42):
Subscribe to the channel.
Speaker 1 (49:44):
Downloads from Spotify, Apple pods Wherever you get your pods,
rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, Say whatever you want.
Speaker 2 (49:51):
Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Speaker 1 (49:54):
Love you, Come on baby, one time, one time, one time,
one time, one times.
Speaker 4 (50:06):
H
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