May 20, 2025 • 31 mins
The NFL schedule release is now a highlight of the NFL offseason. No expert has spent more hours pouring over it each and every year than this week's guest Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis. In this special two-part episode, Action Network experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into rest advantages, bye week eccentricities, international travel schedules and so much more. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike Padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So
I'm in Chad. How we doing, dude? We got some
(00:29):
serious football, some serious football betting to discuss. Because the
NFL schedule came out last week, lines are posted for
every single game. Team totals are posted for games like
the Action to get down already for Week one has
(00:51):
been insane. It's become a highlight for fans. The schedule
released during the sort of dull drums of the NFL offseason,
and they've really nailed this. The NFL also offers gamblers
a chance to discuss this upcoming season from a variety
of new angles. Today, we're going to do things a
little bit differently. We're doing a two part episode with
(01:13):
a very special guest returning to the show to discuss
many of those angles. One of our favorite guests with
our favorite mustache. He's an NFL predictive analyst, one of
the originals, a proponent of all things data, the impresario
of sharp football analysis. Dot Com. Mister Warren Sharp.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Hey, thanks for having me, Chad Simon. Pleasure to be
back with you.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Guys. Always love this time of year because we get
to break down the schedule and like you mentioned, lines
out on all these games.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Everything is super fresh.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
It's never going to be any fresher than it is
over the past week or so, so happy to dive
into it with you guys.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Well listen, one of the reasons we love to have
you on is because your Preseason Bible is a must
for football fans because you go so deep on every
team every new edition, how these teams did against the spread,
what they do on offense, defense, all the rest metrics
that we're going to get into today. You are very
(02:16):
graciously offering listeners of the favorites the Bible, Sharp Football Analysis,
the Preseason Bible for one dollar use code Action. Go
to Sharp dot Football. That's right, Sharp dot Football, Sharp
dot Football.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It'll have a link up the top. You can go
right to the purchase page enter into code Action. Drops
the price from thirty five dollars down to one dollar.
So you're not going to get a better deal than that,
and I can guarantee you're not going to find a
better use today for a dollar than pre ordering the
book for when it comes out the beginning of July.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
One dollar. The ROI on that dollar, God only knows.
You've got to be wise, but that is going to
be a huge ROI. All right, NFL schedule it's out.
We're going to get to that in a second. Spring
meetings happening as we speak. So many you know, rules
changes being proposed. Everyone's talking about the touch push, but
(03:13):
there's also proposals for playoff seating structure. Simon, I'll start
with you, how do you feel about a change to
the seating structure and how would that impact the way
you think about not just the playoffs, but also how
teams sort of work the regular season from a betting perspective.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
A bunch of differentids come out of the main part
I don't like about is it's I feel like they're
trying to take away something we all love is betters,
which is home dogs in the playoffs, Like that eight
to nine team in the playoffs at home playing against
a team that's going to be much more talented, right,
the five seed usually it is gonna better than the
four seed. You know, it's it's taking something away from us, right,
(03:58):
Like again, it rarely overall, right, but there's always those
unique spots that there is a team that is terrible
makes in the playoffs and somehow pulls off a huge upset,
which we all talk about all the time. Beast quick like,
that's the game that will forever stick out that any
anyone that's a real big time better that Seahawks was
a big dog playing against a Drew Brees led team, which,
(04:18):
as it better, pretty simple, right, You're getting Drew Brees
going from indoor to outdoors against a team that thrived
on strong defense with a good run game. It was
like very easy for Better to see, but the general
public didn't see it that way. So those are ones
that pop out to me. And you know, we saw
last year with that great team down in Washington making
that run chat. That was a team that you know,
(04:40):
did it all on the road. So those are things
I love and I love to see happen.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
But I get it.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
I'd be pissed too if I was a really good
team and I'm them to play all my road games
rather than you know, being at home. So pretty interesting shakeup.
But I think that the Vikings Detroit, I don't know.
I don't like that they're they're pro proposing in this
actually might happen, But we'll see what the rule is.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
It's a big deal for sure.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Though, Warren, you're a pretty connected guy. Do you have
thoughts on if this has a real chance at passing?
Speaker 2 (05:12):
At first, I thought it was going to have a
great chance.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
I think now that the pressure from Goodell is going
to be very strong on this two pass.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
But I'm not.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Quite sure that we're going to get enough buy in
yet from some of the teams in those divisions that stink,
like the AFC South for example, who love to have
that four seed when they get to the playoffs and
would lose that four seed if they passed this rule
because that team then would probably be seven seed or
(05:44):
six seed, and that's a big issue for those teams.
But I felt like that this rule should pass because
Goodell wants it to pass. I mean, as we're going
to be talking about momentarily, this league is now built
on making revenue and get getting people to watch their
games on TV so that their ratings go high so
(06:04):
that they can get new deals in the future. And
this will make those Week eighteen games better. But to
Simon's point, from betting on those games, one of the
things that we are able to do is get all
that insight a little bit before maybe the general public
is is this coach going to rest this players week eighteen?
Is this how many snaps? Is this first team going
(06:24):
to play? Now, if they do this, we're going to
have less teams resting in Week eighteen. I mean, there
was a slide that they presented at the ownership meetings
that showed that the Houston Texans went into Week eighteen
locked into the fourth seed, but if this new system
had passed, they could have finished anywhere from fourth to
seventh seed.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
The La Rams went into Week eighteen last year as
the number three or the four seed. They also decided
to rest starters, but if this had passed, they could
have been anywhere from the fourth to the seventh seed.
Even the Philadelphia Eagles, they were locked in as the
two in this adjusted system, they could have fallen into
the third seed with a loss. And so those three
teams decided to rest starters in Week eighteen. This new
(07:10):
system would given them more of a desire to play guys,
And so I actually think it might be like the
Players Association that would feel the strongest like, hey, our
guys should deserve a little bit of a rest. We
don't need to change this up for the NFL to
get new ratings, for the owners to line their pockets more,
even though eventually it does trickle down to the players.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
So I think it's going to be fascinating. I totally disagree, though.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Chad, with this contingent of people who think that this
is going to Yes, it sort of makes divisions less important,
but it's not going to throw everything out like this
is to me, this is not something that is going
to make teams less likely.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
To play hard.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
These teams in the strong divisions are still going to
be playing to try to get their seeding, and the
teams in the weak division. Do you think if a
team is in first place in the AFC South and
they're like, oh, well, we're not going to get a
fourth place they're still going to be playing to not
play the seventh place playoff schedule, the sixth place playoff schedule.
They may not be able to get the fourth place spot,
(08:12):
but they're still going to be trying to play for
a higher seed. So I don't see how this makes
the teams less likely to try hard.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
I like the idea. Actually, I like having more of
an opportunity in the regular season to have one more
week with a full slate that offers betting windows, right,
because the scenario that you just talked about, Simon's becoming
less and less. We love betting the playoffs. We killed
(08:43):
in the playoffs this year, but I don't mind having
a lot more games to look at in the final
weekend of the regular season. I think that's kind of fantastic.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
Brother, I just took We just had the rams of
the Dog against the Vikings, and that was amazing and
we killed it, right, That's what I mean. So like
that was a nice opportunity. We're gonna lose the opportunity, dude,
that would have been a Viking to home game. That's
I get where they're coming from again, all these different proposals,
Each one's different, right. Some of them it only matters
if a team's below five hundred. Some of them they're
only going to recede after the first round. Like it's
(09:16):
I mean, like you said, it's there's a lot of
things being pushed today that the Toush push, Like it
sounds like the toush push is more likely to get
put through than this one is because it seems like
a lot of owners fucking hate the toush push because
their team can't do it, and the Eagles obviously couldn't
couldn't be stopped. So like Green Bay being the team
to go and propose this touch push ban, that makes
(09:37):
more sense than other teams agreeing to this receding cause
it's like I'd be bitter too. It's an automatic play
that a team is a huge advantage on. You know,
I get, I get why they're trying to ban that.
I just don't, like you said, the revenue thing. That
makes more sense than anything else for this. Try to
change these playoff.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Schedules, Warren, You've corner the market on the idea of
rest advantage, and when you look at the schedule, now,
how do you handicap the teams that have done that
have gotten a rest advantage versus the teams that don't.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Well. Rest certainly matters. There have been changes in.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
The way that the league has divvied up the schedule
this year to help increase the equity a little bit.
I do think that they did a little bit of
a better job this year than they have in years past.
Some years have come on your show this time every
May pounded my hand on the table and said, this
is ridiculous. To keep making it worse. I don't know
(10:45):
where the you know, the light the end of the
tunnel is. But things are good. Just ripping my hair
out with how terrible it is. It's still not great,
but it's better than what it was last year. I'll
say that it has improved a little bit.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
There are still one hundred and one games being played
where one team has a rest advantage over an opponent,
which is the identical number to what it was last year,
but the haves and the have nots, it's gotten a
little bit closer to even so we're not seeing as
many teams skewing to one end of the spectrum or
the other.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
So that's a positive.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We'll talk momentarily about some of the teams that got
screwed the most or the most benefits. But one of
the things that has changed, and the league sort of
pointed this out when they were doing a little bit
of analysis of the schedule and rest in the schedule,
is that bye weeks have certainly become less beneficial, especially
(11:39):
to bet on then they had in the past. In
the past, prior to twenty eleven, we had major advantages
from bye weeks, and you could cover the spread fifty
six percent of the time if you were just betting
on the team that was off of a bye That
no longer exists because that twenty eleven CBA forces four
mandatory days off of bye weeks, and there are teams
(12:01):
and coaches that used to give their players one day
off in a bye week and get ready for the
next day.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
We got a big game coming up.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Okay, everybody, you can go home, don't come back until
you know, the day after tomorrow. But otherwise, now they're
getting all this time off, the coaches are getting out
of rhythm from a play calling perspective. I don't know
about you guys, from the way that you've been betting
things over the last couple of years, but I certainly
have ran into a couple of problems where I would
be liking a team for a certain game, knowing they're
(12:29):
coming off of a bye, thinking that that would provide
a little bit more of an edge, But what ends
up happening is that team shows up rusty, out of sync.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
The play calling strategies.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Are a little bit different than what they were finishing
as they went into the buy and all of a sudden,
I'm betting on a team that I wasn't expecting to
be out there on the field, And that's happened several times,
and you know, I just kicked myself out of yet
I remember this team's coming off of a bye. Those
teams are becoming a little bit more fade material hitting,
you know, covering the spread like forty seven forty eight
percent of the time as opposed to fifty six percent,
(13:01):
which is massive. So identifying chad the situations where rest
is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not
be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important
over the last several seasons in my opinion. But there
certainly are spots where teams are just league wide getting
(13:23):
screwed with rest or getting rest advantages. Holistically, we know
that short week road games are a bad thing for teams,
but since twenty and twenty one, so just over the
last four years, a team like the San Francisco forty
nine ers has to play ten such games, whereas other
teams have only played two such games. Over the last
(13:44):
four years, so there isn't necessarily a desire to balance
this stuff out at the minute level, and that's where
you know, I would like to see it be more fair.
But we now know that the NFL doesn't prioritize that.
What they're prioritizing is big teams playing one another in
(14:05):
big games, which is why we have ridiculous schedule this
Christmas and Thanksgiving, and they're in it for the ratings
they want to get, you know, they want to be
able to promote that they broke the records ratings. I
even heard Mike North come out and say, we want
to hit fifty million viewers on the Thanksgiving night game
where Dallas plays the Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Chiefs, which would break all of the records.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
And the reason that they're looking to do that is
because they want to sell a standalone pay per view
game on Dezone or on tob or god knows what
other network, so they then can make more money in
the future. So that's what they're prioritizing. They say, as
long as rest isn't too inequitable, then it's okay. But
who's to define too inequitable. It's their own decision as
(14:50):
to what's too inequitable, and that's why we need to
sort of act as watchdogs and look out for the
schedule and look out for the rest and just make
sure that they're not when they are screwing teams they
like they are, and we'll discuss we point that out
so that hopefully those teams get a little bit of
benefit in the future.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
You brought up sort of it used to be an
auto play and now it's becoming less and less of
that to get bet these teams coming off the by
Evan did some research for US. Last season, teams with
a rest advantage were actually one game under five hundred
(15:27):
fifty four to fifty five straight up, and then they
were thirteen games under five hundred against the spread. That's
the second worst mark against the spread since two thousand
and by the way, since PASPO was repealed in twenty eighteen,
fifty one percent straight up forty eight percent against the spread.
So that is a losing bet since two thousand eighteen
(15:53):
betting teams with the rest advantage. To your point, is
it because they haven't been equitable? But before I actually
let me ask sign in, how have you been thinking
about teams coming off of buye or teams having rest
advantages the last couple of years.
Speaker 4 (16:12):
It's a bunch of boys. Like I told you, I
use Warren's book as a major tool for what I'm doing,
and that is the sense of you know, adjusting to
season win tolls and differences like that. Like you know
that Eagles team last year, all the players talked about
going to Brazil week one. They felt like they couldn't
catch up and get like get their heads right until
their bye week which was after week four, and you
(16:35):
hear every player talk about it where it's like they
couldn't catch their breath. It was just really intense going
from your preseason trying to make the team get ready
for the upcoming season. Two you're going to a foreign country.
Now you're coming back, and now you're playing, you know,
multiple road games, you have a home game here and there.
It's a lot and the Bible helped them catch up.
You look at this schedule this year, there's tons of
teams having that exact scenario, long distance travel, a lot
(16:58):
going on and a lot to deal with when they
get back. And you know, for me, I remember last
year one that really jumped out was one was on it.
It was about the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the worst
deal we've ever seen any football team get last year. Right,
they had the most insane schedule Saturdays, Wednesdays. I mean,
I think the only day they didn't play was Tuesday.
They might even add a Tuesday game. I don't even know,
but it was just insane how their schedules set up.
(17:20):
They were perfect. So we talked on here about that
where there's certain teams we do think it will affect,
and there's other teams with veteran quarterback and veteran head
coaches that their leadership can balance that, right, that rest
disparity those other teams that it does affect. Where we
just talked about a young Eagles team. They started two
and two, right, they lost to a not very talented
Kirk Cousins and that Atlanta team, and then to a
(17:42):
Saints team that we all know we're terrible. I mean,
not the Saints, Tampa Bay. We were pretty good, but
still close. Came with the Saints starts season. So it
just shows out early in the year these teams they're
not going to be the who they are, especially when
they're traveling like they are, so you know, jumps out
of the page. Chargers Chiefs. That's a team that's going
to Brazil week one, right, Like we have a lot
(18:02):
of things. People can look at Warren's book about that
type of stuff where it's like those miles and that
stuff does matter and can affect a lot of teams.
So that's what's such a big deal to me reading
war and stuff. It's like you have to look into
each team's rest is spirit. Even though it's not the
end all be all, it's a major tool to have
on end.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
One thing, Chad, I do I do want to throw
in just some data I know because you were mentioning
Evans Evan Abrams great research. I just want to throw
in some some nuggets heer real quick before we get
into team discussion and other situations.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
Just the specifics.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
If you are off of a bye week from two
thousand and two to twenty ten, you are covering the
spread fifty six percent of the time seven point six
percent ROI. Since twenty seventeen you're covering the spread forty
six percent of the time minus twelve point two percent ROI.
So a massive difference off of the buy the situations
(18:55):
where you want to be looking and Simon mentioned this too,
about the Chiefs. What I affect is that the better
team usually obviously in these games, is going to be
favored favorites. When they have extra rest, that edge becomes amplified.
Bad teams that may have extra rest, it doesn't necessarily
help them. They don't know the right strategies to use
(19:17):
during that extra rest or to take advantage of to
get to the level of the good team. So favorites
tend to do a little bit better when they do
have extra rest than underdogser than bad teams do. The
other spots to think about here are the short week
road games, which we are going to discuss short week
road games. The last ten years, those teams that means
(19:39):
like they're playing Sunday and then they play on Thursday
on the road, which happens a lot. This year, those
teams have covered the spread just forty eight point three
percent of the time, which is minus seven point eight
percent ROI over the last ten years.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Forty eight percent cover rate can be a solid spot
to bet against these teams, especially when other factors play
into it. If that's team instead of having goes on
the road, instead of having short rest, they actually have
a little bit extra rest in their opponent, all of
a sudden they become fifty four point seven percent ROI,
fifty four point seven percent cover rate, which is positive
(20:13):
four point four percent ROI. A couple other spots to
be aware of. It only happens once this year, three
games in ten days. That last game is absolutely brutal.
It's a very low sample size. It's going to happen
to the Dallas Cowboys once this year, actually on Thanksgiving.
Those teams when it's when it's happened, there's something like
two and nine, two and ten in the last decade
(20:35):
when they've played three games in ten days, which hasn't
happened very frequently, and then games after playing on the
road Sunday or Monday night and having to come home
and play an opponent that has not had to do
that forty eight point seven percent since twenty thirteen across
over four hundred games. So we aren't talking about situations
here that are going to scream, you know, sixty percent,
(20:58):
sixty five percent hover rate when you talk about sample
sizes that are a little bit larger, but it is
meaningful when you're talking about and Simon knows this, you
know this chat. I don't really bet other sports, but
I do know that there are people out there that
whether they're betting NBA rest spots or MLB rest spots
or situations or team's gone on the road for all
(21:19):
those games and then comes back home, like, there are
spots and edges to be had just based upon general
rest situations. So it is a key factor in the NFL.
But the key is to understand when it is a
factor and when it is not as big of a factor.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Well, what's interesting about that? And you guys have both
just said this is the NFL disadvantages the marquee teams
in these scenarios because they want to put the marquee
teams in the highest profile slots, and that's automatically going
to be impossible to navigate to get them both rest
(21:58):
and marquee slot. The teams that we've already talked about,
the Cowboys, the Chiefs, Historically, the Niners have gotten screwed
on this, right, like the teams that the Eagles last year, Right,
those are the teams that we're always thinking about. So
it's fascinating to me that all of a sudden you've
got these insights and windows into Hey, these might be
(22:21):
teams that even if historically we want to back them,
this is a very specific spot where you might want
to fade them because there could be value, especially if
they're coming off some high profile games in which they
might have won. So Warren, looking at the schedule, who wins,
who loses when it comes to rest and spots right now.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Well, I'll tell you one spot that's terrible. This team
is fine from an overall rest advantage. But like just
an example of how the NFL doesn't pay enough attention
to this. The Cincinnati Bengals have to play on the
road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And that's the
third straight year that they have to play on the
road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And how many
times have the Ravens gone into Cincinnati to play on
(23:09):
the road on a Thursday game. One time since two
thousand and six, So we're talking one time in the
last nineteen years. But Cincinnati has had to do it
now three straight years in Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore
nine to zero hosting Thursday night home games. Most teams
are really good when they host Thursday night games. Baltimore
is terrible when they go on the road on Thursday.
(23:29):
That nine and oh team at home turns into two
and seven on the road, but they get to host Cincinnati.
It's unfair that they get to do that three straight
years in a row. The NFL needs to right that
wrong next season. But you could try to make up
for it, like they're doing with the San Francisco forty
nine ers rest this year. They're one of the top
teams in the league after being screwed by minus twenty
(23:50):
days or worse each of the last two seasons. We
talked about them last year on your show Minus twenty
two day net rest differential I think it was and
obviously their season on Repdill mainly due to injuries, but
rest didn't help. But you know, it's one thing to
go right the wrong, you know, a couple of years later.
The issue is trying to make it as balanced as
(24:11):
possible in the moment and not have these situations happen
because coaches careers are on the line.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
You know, a couple of.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Bad seasons because in some part rest is factoring into
the fact that you're unable to win some of these games,
and all of a sudden you're out of a job,
So it might help your successor when they write the
wrong a couple of years from now, but it's not
going to help you in the moment. The Detroit Lions
are one of these teams that really stands out this season.
It's ironic because they have such a brutal schedule. They
have one of the most difficult schedules of opponents in
(24:41):
the NFL. But the NFL doesn't define who you're going
to play. That's all predetermined based upon where you finished
last year and a rolling calendar that schedules out in
advanced years in advance what divisions you're going to play.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
The Lions are screwed from a strength of.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Opponent perspective, but the NFL of them eight games where
they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games
has never happened before in NFL history. This is an
example of where while the league has improved, they're scheduling
a little bit, there are still areas that are notable
and that they could improve further. Never before has a
team played more than six games in a season with
(25:19):
a rest advantage over their opponent. Destroit doesn't play just seven,
they play eight. On top of that, they only play
one game where they're at a rest disadvantage, thus a
net of plus seven games where they have a rest
advantage over their opponent. They play five different games against
an opponent who's coming off a Monday night football game
(25:39):
on a short week, and those five games. You think
about it, and I've talked to some players. When they
get home on Monday night, it's actually Tuesday morning at
that point in time, even if it's a home game,
they're getting in Tuesday morning. They're starting their rehab. The
Lions playing on a Sunday at one pm. They have
(25:59):
all evening Sunday to rest and rehab and start watching film.
They have all day Monday to rest and rehab, watch
the tape from yesterday, make their adjustments, figure out their
game plan, and then they get Monday night to watch
the opponent that they're going to play. While the Lions
are still rehabbing, this other team that they're playing has
less time to rehab and also has less time to
(26:22):
make adjustments based upon what happened. They're instantly looking forward
to the next game as opposed to making some of
those corrections based upon how they performed on Monday night.
So it's a minor advantage. It's only one day of rest,
but it is impactful over the course of you know,
these minor edges added up over the course of entire season.
No team has ever played five opponents off of Monday
(26:45):
Night Football like the Detroit Lions are going to play.
The other interesting factor about the Lions schedule specifically is
the comparison and unfortunately, Chad, you know, your Chicago Bears
are there in the NFC North, the comparison of the
Detroit Lions and how they stack up with the rest
of the North. Because if you look at my net
rest edges in the article that I wrote, a lot
(27:05):
of the teams in the NFC West are up at
the top, the forty nine Ers, the Rams, the Cardinals.
The NFL tried to help out the forty nine ers,
I think this year, right the wrongs of those minus
twenty days, and so they also ended up helping out
some of the other teams in their division simultaneously. But
for the NFC North, the Lions are the only team
(27:27):
that's getting these edges. If you look at their division
games with a rest edge, they have eight. No other
team in their division has four. Your Chicago Bears only
play two games would they rest disadvantage? I just mentioned
the Chicago Bears. Sorry, the Detroit Lions play only one
such game. The Bears play five games. Would they rest disadvantage?
And so if you look at the net, how many
(27:49):
net games of rest advantage do you have? The Lions
are at plus seven, eight and one plus seven, The
Bears and everybody else is zero or worse. In fact,
the Bears are minus three. So that's just games with
a rest advantage the bit net games. The Lions are
at plus seven and your Chicago Bears are minus three.
(28:09):
We're talking about a ten game span in a seventeen
game season. So I just don't feel like things like
that are necessarily fair, pre flop and equitable, and the
league should be looking at trying to make things a
little bit more balanced, specifically within divisions, so that teams
don't have such wide sweeping edges in rest like they
(28:32):
do right now in the NFC.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
North Simon feels a little bit like a conspiracy theory
from the NFL.
Speaker 4 (28:41):
It isn't. It isn't though, because you know, some of
that has lots of football debates. I feel like nine
percent of my life is conversations about football people.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
Call me off season.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
I think I called me to catch up, Chad, and no,
they're calling me to give me some crazy idea and
have a conversation about football. And you know, we always talk,
especially with the old heads, about the Cowboys, like that's
such a polarizing team that you know, even when they're
not that good, they're still going to get four to
five primetime games, and if they have a little bit
of talent, they might get six or seven. Like that's
just a team the NFL loves. But because of that,
(29:12):
pros professionals have been on a steady fade of them
since the nineties, ever since they become America's team. Really
they're always in these tough spots where they're not going
to be great for a team, especially for their season,
and this season it's historical for them. The Cowboys are
a team that have four Thursday games. That doesn't even
sound real when you say it out loud, but it's true.
(29:34):
And like it's the NFL.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
You could say this.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
Cowboys can say we have a raw deal. They're screwing
us here, and I would agree they really are, because
Warren's telling you, like that Thursday game players talk all
the time their bodies ain't right till that Thursday Friday
after a Sunday game. So they have four this year
of short weeks, and you know they've finagled it right.
They give them back to back Thursdays, they try to
(29:56):
make it work for them. But overall, that's something that
really jumps out to me. That's team I love this season.
The Cowboys, a team who's win total. I've been very
heavy on a team that I bet for division and
you're seeing why because they have a tough schedule as well,
Like towards the end of the season. Why their win
total is what it is chat seven and a half,
eight and a half because the NFL screws them with
the schedule because they are America's team and they're not
(30:17):
getting any favors where the NFC East is playing really
tough out division games this season. So that's something I
really can't wait to dive into. And I get Warren's
book about his outlook on this Cowboys team, because that
was something that jumped out for me right away, where
it's like, man, I thought I was getting in sane
the good value. You see their schedule. Once it game
I goes okay, I get why that's such a low number.
All Right, there's a lot of hype for Washington Eagles,
(30:38):
but they also have a very tough schedule this upcoming
season in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites Thursday with part two of our episode with
Warren Sharp. Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you
get your podse rate, review, subscribe, loops five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is get until next time. Love You.
(31:04):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume
podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network.
Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike Padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So
I'm in Chad. How we doing, dude? We got some
(00:29):
serious football, some serious football betting to discuss. Because the
NFL schedule came out last week, lines are posted for
every single game. Team totals are posted for games like
the Action to get down already for Week one has
(00:51):
been insane. It's become a highlight for fans. The schedule
released during the sort of dull drums of the NFL offseason,
and they've really nailed this. The NFL also offers gamblers
a chance to discuss this upcoming season from a variety
of new angles. Today, we're going to do things a
little bit differently. We're doing a two part episode with
(01:13):
a very special guest returning to the show to discuss
many of those angles. One of our favorite guests with
our favorite mustache. He's an NFL predictive analyst, one of
the originals, a proponent of all things data, the impresario
of sharp football analysis. Dot Com. Mister Warren Sharp.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Hey, thanks for having me, Chad Simon. Pleasure to be
back with you.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Guys. Always love this time of year because we get
to break down the schedule and like you mentioned, lines
out on all these games.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Everything is super fresh.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
It's never going to be any fresher than it is
over the past week or so, so happy to dive
into it with you guys.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Well listen, one of the reasons we love to have
you on is because your Preseason Bible is a must
for football fans because you go so deep on every
team every new edition, how these teams did against the spread,
what they do on offense, defense, all the rest metrics
that we're going to get into today. You are very
(02:16):
graciously offering listeners of the favorites the Bible, Sharp Football Analysis,
the Preseason Bible for one dollar use code Action. Go
to Sharp dot Football. That's right, Sharp dot Football, Sharp
dot Football.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
It'll have a link up the top. You can go
right to the purchase page enter into code Action. Drops
the price from thirty five dollars down to one dollar.
So you're not going to get a better deal than that,
and I can guarantee you're not going to find a
better use today for a dollar than pre ordering the
book for when it comes out the beginning of July.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
One dollar. The ROI on that dollar, God only knows.
You've got to be wise, but that is going to
be a huge ROI. All right, NFL schedule it's out.
We're going to get to that in a second. Spring
meetings happening as we speak. So many you know, rules
changes being proposed. Everyone's talking about the touch push, but
(03:13):
there's also proposals for playoff seating structure. Simon, I'll start
with you, how do you feel about a change to
the seating structure and how would that impact the way
you think about not just the playoffs, but also how
teams sort of work the regular season from a betting perspective.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
A bunch of differentids come out of the main part
I don't like about is it's I feel like they're
trying to take away something we all love is betters,
which is home dogs in the playoffs, Like that eight
to nine team in the playoffs at home playing against
a team that's going to be much more talented, right,
the five seed usually it is gonna better than the
four seed. You know, it's it's taking something away from us, right,
(03:58):
Like again, it rarely overall, right, but there's always those
unique spots that there is a team that is terrible
makes in the playoffs and somehow pulls off a huge upset,
which we all talk about all the time. Beast quick like,
that's the game that will forever stick out that any
anyone that's a real big time better that Seahawks was
a big dog playing against a Drew Brees led team, which,
(04:18):
as it better, pretty simple, right, You're getting Drew Brees
going from indoor to outdoors against a team that thrived
on strong defense with a good run game. It was
like very easy for Better to see, but the general
public didn't see it that way. So those are ones
that pop out to me. And you know, we saw
last year with that great team down in Washington making
that run chat. That was a team that you know,
(04:40):
did it all on the road. So those are things
I love and I love to see happen.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
But I get it.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
I'd be pissed too if I was a really good
team and I'm them to play all my road games
rather than you know, being at home. So pretty interesting shakeup.
But I think that the Vikings Detroit, I don't know.
I don't like that they're they're pro proposing in this
actually might happen, But we'll see what the rule is.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Chad.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
It's a big deal for sure.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
Though, Warren, you're a pretty connected guy. Do you have
thoughts on if this has a real chance at passing?
Speaker 2 (05:12):
At first, I thought it was going to have a
great chance.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
I think now that the pressure from Goodell is going
to be very strong on this two pass.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
But I'm not.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Quite sure that we're going to get enough buy in
yet from some of the teams in those divisions that stink,
like the AFC South for example, who love to have
that four seed when they get to the playoffs and
would lose that four seed if they passed this rule
because that team then would probably be seven seed or
(05:44):
six seed, and that's a big issue for those teams.
But I felt like that this rule should pass because
Goodell wants it to pass. I mean, as we're going
to be talking about momentarily, this league is now built
on making revenue and get getting people to watch their
games on TV so that their ratings go high so
(06:04):
that they can get new deals in the future. And
this will make those Week eighteen games better. But to
Simon's point, from betting on those games, one of the
things that we are able to do is get all
that insight a little bit before maybe the general public
is is this coach going to rest this players week eighteen?
Is this how many snaps? Is this first team going
(06:24):
to play? Now, if they do this, we're going to
have less teams resting in Week eighteen. I mean, there
was a slide that they presented at the ownership meetings
that showed that the Houston Texans went into Week eighteen
locked into the fourth seed, but if this new system
had passed, they could have finished anywhere from fourth to
seventh seed.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
The La Rams went into Week eighteen last year as
the number three or the four seed. They also decided
to rest starters, but if this had passed, they could
have been anywhere from the fourth to the seventh seed.
Even the Philadelphia Eagles, they were locked in as the
two in this adjusted system, they could have fallen into
the third seed with a loss. And so those three
teams decided to rest starters in Week eighteen. This new
(07:10):
system would given them more of a desire to play guys,
And so I actually think it might be like the
Players Association that would feel the strongest like, hey, our
guys should deserve a little bit of a rest. We
don't need to change this up for the NFL to
get new ratings, for the owners to line their pockets more,
even though eventually it does trickle down to the players.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
So I think it's going to be fascinating. I totally disagree, though.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
Chad, with this contingent of people who think that this
is going to Yes, it sort of makes divisions less important,
but it's not going to throw everything out like this
is to me, this is not something that is going
to make teams less likely.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
To play hard.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
These teams in the strong divisions are still going to
be playing to try to get their seeding, and the
teams in the weak division. Do you think if a
team is in first place in the AFC South and
they're like, oh, well, we're not going to get a
fourth place they're still going to be playing to not
play the seventh place playoff schedule, the sixth place playoff schedule.
They may not be able to get the fourth place spot,
(08:12):
but they're still going to be trying to play for
a higher seed. So I don't see how this makes
the teams less likely to try hard.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
I like the idea. Actually, I like having more of
an opportunity in the regular season to have one more
week with a full slate that offers betting windows, right,
because the scenario that you just talked about, Simon's becoming
less and less. We love betting the playoffs. We killed
(08:43):
in the playoffs this year, but I don't mind having
a lot more games to look at in the final
weekend of the regular season. I think that's kind of fantastic.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
Brother, I just took We just had the rams of
the Dog against the Vikings, and that was amazing and
we killed it, right, That's what I mean. So like
that was a nice opportunity. We're gonna lose the opportunity, dude,
that would have been a Viking to home game. That's
I get where they're coming from again, all these different proposals,
Each one's different, right. Some of them it only matters
if a team's below five hundred. Some of them they're
only going to recede after the first round. Like it's
(09:16):
I mean, like you said, it's there's a lot of
things being pushed today that the Toush push, Like it
sounds like the toush push is more likely to get
put through than this one is because it seems like
a lot of owners fucking hate the toush push because
their team can't do it, and the Eagles obviously couldn't
couldn't be stopped. So like Green Bay being the team
to go and propose this touch push ban, that makes
(09:37):
more sense than other teams agreeing to this receding cause
it's like I'd be bitter too. It's an automatic play
that a team is a huge advantage on. You know,
I get, I get why they're trying to ban that.
I just don't, like you said, the revenue thing. That
makes more sense than anything else for this. Try to
change these playoff.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
Schedules, Warren, You've corner the market on the idea of
rest advantage, and when you look at the schedule, now,
how do you handicap the teams that have done that
have gotten a rest advantage versus the teams that don't.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Well. Rest certainly matters. There have been changes in.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
The way that the league has divvied up the schedule
this year to help increase the equity a little bit.
I do think that they did a little bit of
a better job this year than they have in years past.
Some years have come on your show this time every
May pounded my hand on the table and said, this
is ridiculous. To keep making it worse. I don't know
(10:45):
where the you know, the light the end of the
tunnel is. But things are good. Just ripping my hair
out with how terrible it is. It's still not great,
but it's better than what it was last year. I'll
say that it has improved a little bit.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Last year.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
There are still one hundred and one games being played
where one team has a rest advantage over an opponent,
which is the identical number to what it was last year,
but the haves and the have nots, it's gotten a
little bit closer to even so we're not seeing as
many teams skewing to one end of the spectrum or
the other.
Speaker 2 (11:17):
So that's a positive.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We'll talk momentarily about some of the teams that got
screwed the most or the most benefits. But one of
the things that has changed, and the league sort of
pointed this out when they were doing a little bit
of analysis of the schedule and rest in the schedule,
is that bye weeks have certainly become less beneficial, especially
(11:39):
to bet on then they had in the past. In
the past, prior to twenty eleven, we had major advantages
from bye weeks, and you could cover the spread fifty
six percent of the time if you were just betting
on the team that was off of a bye That
no longer exists because that twenty eleven CBA forces four
mandatory days off of bye weeks, and there are teams
(12:01):
and coaches that used to give their players one day
off in a bye week and get ready for the
next day.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
We got a big game coming up.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Okay, everybody, you can go home, don't come back until
you know, the day after tomorrow. But otherwise, now they're
getting all this time off, the coaches are getting out
of rhythm from a play calling perspective. I don't know
about you guys, from the way that you've been betting
things over the last couple of years, but I certainly
have ran into a couple of problems where I would
be liking a team for a certain game, knowing they're
(12:29):
coming off of a bye, thinking that that would provide
a little bit more of an edge, But what ends
up happening is that team shows up rusty, out of sync.
Speaker 2 (12:37):
The play calling strategies.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
Are a little bit different than what they were finishing
as they went into the buy and all of a sudden,
I'm betting on a team that I wasn't expecting to
be out there on the field, And that's happened several times,
and you know, I just kicked myself out of yet
I remember this team's coming off of a bye. Those
teams are becoming a little bit more fade material hitting,
you know, covering the spread like forty seven forty eight
percent of the time as opposed to fifty six percent,
(13:01):
which is massive. So identifying chad the situations where rest
is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not
be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important
over the last several seasons in my opinion. But there
certainly are spots where teams are just league wide getting
(13:23):
screwed with rest or getting rest advantages. Holistically, we know
that short week road games are a bad thing for teams,
but since twenty and twenty one, so just over the
last four years, a team like the San Francisco forty
nine ers has to play ten such games, whereas other
teams have only played two such games. Over the last
(13:44):
four years, so there isn't necessarily a desire to balance
this stuff out at the minute level, and that's where
you know, I would like to see it be more fair.
But we now know that the NFL doesn't prioritize that.
What they're prioritizing is big teams playing one another in
(14:05):
big games, which is why we have ridiculous schedule this
Christmas and Thanksgiving, and they're in it for the ratings
they want to get, you know, they want to be
able to promote that they broke the records ratings. I
even heard Mike North come out and say, we want
to hit fifty million viewers on the Thanksgiving night game
where Dallas plays the Kansas City.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
Chiefs, which would break all of the records.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
And the reason that they're looking to do that is
because they want to sell a standalone pay per view
game on Dezone or on tob or god knows what
other network, so they then can make more money in
the future. So that's what they're prioritizing. They say, as
long as rest isn't too inequitable, then it's okay. But
who's to define too inequitable. It's their own decision as
(14:50):
to what's too inequitable, and that's why we need to
sort of act as watchdogs and look out for the
schedule and look out for the rest and just make
sure that they're not when they are screwing teams they
like they are, and we'll discuss we point that out
so that hopefully those teams get a little bit of
benefit in the future.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
You brought up sort of it used to be an
auto play and now it's becoming less and less of
that to get bet these teams coming off the by
Evan did some research for US. Last season, teams with
a rest advantage were actually one game under five hundred
(15:27):
fifty four to fifty five straight up, and then they
were thirteen games under five hundred against the spread. That's
the second worst mark against the spread since two thousand
and by the way, since PASPO was repealed in twenty eighteen,
fifty one percent straight up forty eight percent against the spread.
So that is a losing bet since two thousand eighteen
(15:53):
betting teams with the rest advantage. To your point, is
it because they haven't been equitable? But before I actually
let me ask sign in, how have you been thinking
about teams coming off of buye or teams having rest
advantages the last couple of years.
Speaker 4 (16:12):
It's a bunch of boys. Like I told you, I
use Warren's book as a major tool for what I'm doing,
and that is the sense of you know, adjusting to
season win tolls and differences like that. Like you know
that Eagles team last year, all the players talked about
going to Brazil week one. They felt like they couldn't
catch up and get like get their heads right until
their bye week which was after week four, and you
(16:35):
hear every player talk about it where it's like they
couldn't catch their breath. It was just really intense going
from your preseason trying to make the team get ready
for the upcoming season. Two you're going to a foreign country.
Now you're coming back, and now you're playing, you know,
multiple road games, you have a home game here and there.
It's a lot and the Bible helped them catch up.
You look at this schedule this year, there's tons of
teams having that exact scenario, long distance travel, a lot
(16:58):
going on and a lot to deal with when they
get back. And you know, for me, I remember last
year one that really jumped out was one was on it.
It was about the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the worst
deal we've ever seen any football team get last year. Right,
they had the most insane schedule Saturdays, Wednesdays. I mean,
I think the only day they didn't play was Tuesday.
They might even add a Tuesday game. I don't even know,
but it was just insane how their schedules set up.
(17:20):
They were perfect. So we talked on here about that
where there's certain teams we do think it will affect,
and there's other teams with veteran quarterback and veteran head
coaches that their leadership can balance that, right, that rest
disparity those other teams that it does affect. Where we
just talked about a young Eagles team. They started two
and two, right, they lost to a not very talented
Kirk Cousins and that Atlanta team, and then to a
(17:42):
Saints team that we all know we're terrible. I mean,
not the Saints, Tampa Bay. We were pretty good, but
still close. Came with the Saints starts season. So it
just shows out early in the year these teams they're
not going to be the who they are, especially when
they're traveling like they are, so you know, jumps out
of the page. Chargers Chiefs. That's a team that's going
to Brazil week one, right, Like we have a lot
(18:02):
of things. People can look at Warren's book about that
type of stuff where it's like those miles and that
stuff does matter and can affect a lot of teams.
So that's what's such a big deal to me reading
war and stuff. It's like you have to look into
each team's rest is spirit. Even though it's not the
end all be all, it's a major tool to have
on end.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
One thing, Chad, I do I do want to throw
in just some data I know because you were mentioning
Evans Evan Abrams great research. I just want to throw
in some some nuggets heer real quick before we get
into team discussion and other situations.
Speaker 2 (18:34):
Just the specifics.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
If you are off of a bye week from two
thousand and two to twenty ten, you are covering the
spread fifty six percent of the time seven point six
percent ROI. Since twenty seventeen you're covering the spread forty
six percent of the time minus twelve point two percent ROI.
So a massive difference off of the buy the situations
(18:55):
where you want to be looking and Simon mentioned this too,
about the Chiefs. What I affect is that the better
team usually obviously in these games, is going to be
favored favorites. When they have extra rest, that edge becomes amplified.
Bad teams that may have extra rest, it doesn't necessarily
help them. They don't know the right strategies to use
(19:17):
during that extra rest or to take advantage of to
get to the level of the good team. So favorites
tend to do a little bit better when they do
have extra rest than underdogser than bad teams do. The
other spots to think about here are the short week
road games, which we are going to discuss short week
road games. The last ten years, those teams that means
(19:39):
like they're playing Sunday and then they play on Thursday
on the road, which happens a lot. This year, those
teams have covered the spread just forty eight point three
percent of the time, which is minus seven point eight
percent ROI over the last ten years.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
Forty eight percent cover rate can be a solid spot
to bet against these teams, especially when other factors play
into it. If that's team instead of having goes on
the road, instead of having short rest, they actually have
a little bit extra rest in their opponent, all of
a sudden they become fifty four point seven percent ROI,
fifty four point seven percent cover rate, which is positive
(20:13):
four point four percent ROI. A couple other spots to
be aware of. It only happens once this year, three
games in ten days. That last game is absolutely brutal.
It's a very low sample size. It's going to happen
to the Dallas Cowboys once this year, actually on Thanksgiving.
Those teams when it's when it's happened, there's something like
two and nine, two and ten in the last decade
(20:35):
when they've played three games in ten days, which hasn't
happened very frequently, and then games after playing on the
road Sunday or Monday night and having to come home
and play an opponent that has not had to do
that forty eight point seven percent since twenty thirteen across
over four hundred games. So we aren't talking about situations
here that are going to scream, you know, sixty percent,
(20:58):
sixty five percent hover rate when you talk about sample
sizes that are a little bit larger, but it is
meaningful when you're talking about and Simon knows this, you
know this chat. I don't really bet other sports, but
I do know that there are people out there that
whether they're betting NBA rest spots or MLB rest spots
or situations or team's gone on the road for all
(21:19):
those games and then comes back home, like, there are
spots and edges to be had just based upon general
rest situations. So it is a key factor in the NFL.
But the key is to understand when it is a
factor and when it is not as big of a factor.
Speaker 1 (21:36):
Well, what's interesting about that? And you guys have both
just said this is the NFL disadvantages the marquee teams
in these scenarios because they want to put the marquee
teams in the highest profile slots, and that's automatically going
to be impossible to navigate to get them both rest
(21:58):
and marquee slot. The teams that we've already talked about,
the Cowboys, the Chiefs, Historically, the Niners have gotten screwed
on this, right, like the teams that the Eagles last year, Right,
those are the teams that we're always thinking about. So
it's fascinating to me that all of a sudden you've
got these insights and windows into Hey, these might be
(22:21):
teams that even if historically we want to back them,
this is a very specific spot where you might want
to fade them because there could be value, especially if
they're coming off some high profile games in which they
might have won. So Warren, looking at the schedule, who wins,
who loses when it comes to rest and spots right now.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Well, I'll tell you one spot that's terrible. This team
is fine from an overall rest advantage. But like just
an example of how the NFL doesn't pay enough attention
to this. The Cincinnati Bengals have to play on the
road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And that's the
third straight year that they have to play on the
road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And how many
times have the Ravens gone into Cincinnati to play on
(23:09):
the road on a Thursday game. One time since two
thousand and six, So we're talking one time in the
last nineteen years. But Cincinnati has had to do it
now three straight years in Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore
nine to zero hosting Thursday night home games. Most teams
are really good when they host Thursday night games. Baltimore
is terrible when they go on the road on Thursday.
(23:29):
That nine and oh team at home turns into two
and seven on the road, but they get to host Cincinnati.
It's unfair that they get to do that three straight
years in a row. The NFL needs to right that
wrong next season. But you could try to make up
for it, like they're doing with the San Francisco forty
nine ers rest this year. They're one of the top
teams in the league after being screwed by minus twenty
(23:50):
days or worse each of the last two seasons. We
talked about them last year on your show Minus twenty
two day net rest differential I think it was and
obviously their season on Repdill mainly due to injuries, but
rest didn't help. But you know, it's one thing to
go right the wrong, you know, a couple of years later.
The issue is trying to make it as balanced as
(24:11):
possible in the moment and not have these situations happen
because coaches careers are on the line.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
You know, a couple of.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Bad seasons because in some part rest is factoring into
the fact that you're unable to win some of these games,
and all of a sudden you're out of a job,
So it might help your successor when they write the
wrong a couple of years from now, but it's not
going to help you in the moment. The Detroit Lions
are one of these teams that really stands out this season.
It's ironic because they have such a brutal schedule. They
have one of the most difficult schedules of opponents in
(24:41):
the NFL. But the NFL doesn't define who you're going
to play. That's all predetermined based upon where you finished
last year and a rolling calendar that schedules out in
advanced years in advance what divisions you're going to play.
Speaker 2 (24:54):
The Lions are screwed from a strength of.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Opponent perspective, but the NFL of them eight games where
they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games
has never happened before in NFL history. This is an
example of where while the league has improved, they're scheduling
a little bit, there are still areas that are notable
and that they could improve further. Never before has a
team played more than six games in a season with
(25:19):
a rest advantage over their opponent. Destroit doesn't play just seven,
they play eight. On top of that, they only play
one game where they're at a rest disadvantage, thus a
net of plus seven games where they have a rest
advantage over their opponent. They play five different games against
an opponent who's coming off a Monday night football game
(25:39):
on a short week, and those five games. You think
about it, and I've talked to some players. When they
get home on Monday night, it's actually Tuesday morning at
that point in time, even if it's a home game,
they're getting in Tuesday morning. They're starting their rehab. The
Lions playing on a Sunday at one pm. They have
(25:59):
all evening Sunday to rest and rehab and start watching film.
They have all day Monday to rest and rehab, watch
the tape from yesterday, make their adjustments, figure out their
game plan, and then they get Monday night to watch
the opponent that they're going to play. While the Lions
are still rehabbing, this other team that they're playing has
less time to rehab and also has less time to
(26:22):
make adjustments based upon what happened. They're instantly looking forward
to the next game as opposed to making some of
those corrections based upon how they performed on Monday night.
So it's a minor advantage. It's only one day of rest,
but it is impactful over the course of you know,
these minor edges added up over the course of entire season.
No team has ever played five opponents off of Monday
(26:45):
Night Football like the Detroit Lions are going to play.
The other interesting factor about the Lions schedule specifically is
the comparison and unfortunately, Chad, you know, your Chicago Bears
are there in the NFC North, the comparison of the
Detroit Lions and how they stack up with the rest
of the North. Because if you look at my net
rest edges in the article that I wrote, a lot
(27:05):
of the teams in the NFC West are up at
the top, the forty nine Ers, the Rams, the Cardinals.
The NFL tried to help out the forty nine ers,
I think this year, right the wrongs of those minus
twenty days, and so they also ended up helping out
some of the other teams in their division simultaneously. But
for the NFC North, the Lions are the only team
(27:27):
that's getting these edges. If you look at their division
games with a rest edge, they have eight. No other
team in their division has four. Your Chicago Bears only
play two games would they rest disadvantage? I just mentioned
the Chicago Bears. Sorry, the Detroit Lions play only one
such game. The Bears play five games. Would they rest disadvantage?
And so if you look at the net, how many
(27:49):
net games of rest advantage do you have? The Lions
are at plus seven, eight and one plus seven, The
Bears and everybody else is zero or worse. In fact,
the Bears are minus three. So that's just games with
a rest advantage the bit net games. The Lions are
at plus seven and your Chicago Bears are minus three.
(28:09):
We're talking about a ten game span in a seventeen
game season. So I just don't feel like things like
that are necessarily fair, pre flop and equitable, and the
league should be looking at trying to make things a
little bit more balanced, specifically within divisions, so that teams
don't have such wide sweeping edges in rest like they
(28:32):
do right now in the NFC.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
North Simon feels a little bit like a conspiracy theory
from the NFL.
Speaker 4 (28:41):
It isn't. It isn't though, because you know, some of
that has lots of football debates. I feel like nine
percent of my life is conversations about football people.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
Call me off season.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
I think I called me to catch up, Chad, and no,
they're calling me to give me some crazy idea and
have a conversation about football. And you know, we always talk,
especially with the old heads, about the Cowboys, like that's
such a polarizing team that you know, even when they're
not that good, they're still going to get four to
five primetime games, and if they have a little bit
of talent, they might get six or seven. Like that's
just a team the NFL loves. But because of that,
(29:12):
pros professionals have been on a steady fade of them
since the nineties, ever since they become America's team. Really
they're always in these tough spots where they're not going
to be great for a team, especially for their season,
and this season it's historical for them. The Cowboys are
a team that have four Thursday games. That doesn't even
sound real when you say it out loud, but it's true.
(29:34):
And like it's the NFL.
Speaker 2 (29:35):
You could say this.
Speaker 4 (29:36):
Cowboys can say we have a raw deal. They're screwing
us here, and I would agree they really are, because
Warren's telling you, like that Thursday game players talk all
the time their bodies ain't right till that Thursday Friday
after a Sunday game. So they have four this year
of short weeks, and you know they've finagled it right.
They give them back to back Thursdays, they try to
(29:56):
make it work for them. But overall, that's something that
really jumps out to me. That's team I love this season.
The Cowboys, a team who's win total. I've been very
heavy on a team that I bet for division and
you're seeing why because they have a tough schedule as well,
Like towards the end of the season. Why their win
total is what it is chat seven and a half,
eight and a half because the NFL screws them with
the schedule because they are America's team and they're not
(30:17):
getting any favors where the NFC East is playing really
tough out division games this season. So that's something I
really can't wait to dive into. And I get Warren's
book about his outlook on this Cowboys team, because that
was something that jumped out for me right away, where
it's like, man, I thought I was getting in sane
the good value. You see their schedule. Once it game
I goes okay, I get why that's such a low number.
All Right, there's a lot of hype for Washington Eagles,
(30:38):
but they also have a very tough schedule this upcoming
season in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
The Favorites Thursday with part two of our episode with
Warren Sharp. Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you
get your podse rate, review, subscribe, loops five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is get until next time. Love You.
(31:04):
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