August 21, 2025 • 37 mins
A division known for gritty, hard-nosed franchises, the AFC North is ALSO home to the tumultuous Cincinnati Bengals. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into each team to provide their favorite bets before the 2025 NFL season kicks off. Can Mike Tomlin keep the Steelers winning with Rodgers? Are the Browns DOA? And why does the public love Baltimore so much? #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Mike, and
Padre might be a FF professional. Better signon Hunter, and
also I'm in Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We are so close to having real football?
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Two weeks from today is the kickoff for the twenty
twenty five NFL season, which means that today is our
last division to preview. We are doing the n the
AFC North. We got the grittiest, most blue collar franchises
(00:51):
in the NFL, and the Bengals. I don't boom reminder,
I'm letting everybody know which divisions everybody is playing in
their schedule so they get a sense of it. AFC North,
in its conference, plays the AFC East and they also
(01:14):
play the NFC North Baltimore Ravens. I doing my research
started falling more and more in love with this team.
We're going to get to the Achilles Heel, which is
(01:34):
always the same division minus one sixty conference plus three
twenty five Super Bowl plus six point fifty win total
eleven and a half. Simon, do you want to hear
why I absolutely love the Ravens right now.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
C It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
This is a team that you know, generationally has had
an incredible coaching staff and an incredible personnel department. Right
their front office has been legit. That's why there has
been no transition for them. In the first half of
last year. Clearly, their defense was terrible, right Zach Orr,
the new defensive coordinator, had Kyle Hamilton playing closer to
(02:25):
the line of scrimmage, and this team was getting burned
so often.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
They were giving up.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
So many points, and as a better we had a
lot of chances. It was clear early on that they
were not able to maintain leads and we were able
to bet against them because they kept giving up the
back door and their spreads were so high. Like the
public is always on the Ravens. Then they made some
significant personnel adjustments in the middle of the years, specifically
(02:51):
Kyle Hamilton moving back into a more traditional safety role
defending against sort of the long, bulsive plays that had
been killing them. After going five to five and one
the first eleven year eleven games against spread, they went
five to one in the final six amazing, Right, What
(03:13):
I love about the Ravens is they don't get complacent.
What did they do? Their secondary Kyle Hamilton masked some
of the weaknesses they had. So what did they do?
They added JayR Alexander from the Packers. They drafted Malachi
Starks from Georgia. They added Chuck Pegano as a secondary coach. Right,
(03:35):
they just got better defensively. And oh, by the way,
they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
So amazing. Love this team. And then none of it will.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Matter if they can't figure out how to lose Lamar
in the right way in a playoff game. Right, So, like,
I want to do everything with this team. I want
to bet them at every level. And I still worry
about Lamar and not being you know, the player that
he lived that he is during the regular season when
we get to a playoff game.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yeah, and the biggest thing jumped out. We had that
Bachelor part again. I'm not around just Joe Schmoe normal people.
That often was the Ravens hype. Everyone all these Joe
public people love the Ravens super Bowl bet right, That's
that's who these Eagles fans think they're gonna be playing
in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. I am just like,
where's that confidence come from? Why do you have more
(04:30):
confidence than little more than you do and josh Alla
Mahomes and I think it is because of what you
just talked about, Chad, that this team once again is
absolutely stacked. And you know, this is my pushback on
the Hurts disrespect was two years ago. You could argue
that Ravens team that lost at home to Kansas City
(04:52):
was one of the greatest teams ever in anyone's model,
Like I know DVLA had them as I think a
third best team ever record on their database. You know,
this is one of the best franchises at drafting ever,
Like they consistently draft so well, and Chad just talked
about they attacked free agency every year as well, So
you don't think they have the money and they cheat
(05:14):
in other areas, right, Like their d line, their detackles
might not be the best, but they're just so dominant
in other areas. Right they might have the arguably the
best safety and the best linebacker in all football. So
it's like when you have Roquan When you have someone
that dominant, someone who can tackle so well, it changes
the dynamic of the team, right, That makes teams have
(05:35):
to pass the ball. So that's what they went out,
Chad just talked with. They went out and try to
attack the secondary, something they viewed early in the year.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Last year that was a weakness.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Like Chad said, they were awful at defense first eight
weeks of the season. And you know, their head, their coordinator,
the DC, I think it was my age. I think
it was thirty four to thirty five years old.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So it makes sense. Okay, this guy is in over
his head.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
He apparently reached out to other people and had people
come in and help him out.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
And with that, that's a beautiful thing in life. You
can be humble and take.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Outside help and everything you have all the answers, it's
only gonna make you better as a person.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
Grow and that's what happened with their defense. So grew,
it got better.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Like you said, towards end of the season, they were
probably the best defense left in the AFC. But this
year they ran into was you know Josh Allen, he
showed up and that was this year they ran into
it was like, okay, you guys are a great defense.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
You're going against the MVP.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
There never is a great defense to stop the MVP
right when the MVP is clicking. It doesn't matter how
great and dominant or defense was that year, just it's
not gonna live up to that moment.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
And it sucked for them. They did. They got stops.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Into that game right, and it was all in Lamar's hands,
and yes, Mark Andrews dropped it, but it was a
little too late, like even if they scored, we talked
about there was too much time left. So you know,
me and Chad, this is a long winted answer that
I love this team as well as you do, but
this is another team that I'm happy to be patient
on because we're starting.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
The NFL season starts in two weeks.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
If you've already missed the boat on them divisional odds
and if you don't want to bet the win total,
I would honestly wait because.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Of the way their schedule starts.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
I know if you look at this chat, but they
literally start at Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, at Kansas City, Houston
Rams than the bye week.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So to me, pretty simple position there.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Hold on, hold on, you're missing one game the Juggernaut
Chicago Bears.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
What after the bye week? I think so yeah, I
think they'll be prayer. I think they'll be prayed for
that one. But yeah, I just I look at their schedule.
It's like, why rush to the window right now?
Speaker 4 (07:34):
Can't we be patient here and hope you know, Pittsburgh
has a great start. The Bengals, who we both don't
really believe, and come out on a hot start. So
it's like, you know, everyone in the world, every drill
public I talked to is drinking the Ravens school aid.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
I think it's a nice team to step back from.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Let them hopefully start five hundred or you know, even
four and two. I think you could get potentially better
odds here this team. So yeah, I'm I'm happy to
be patient on them, just because what an insane start
to your season, Like you're literally going through the three
arguably the three best teams without not including the Eagles
in all football. So yeah, it's it's tough where I remember,
(08:16):
like months ago, I almost got sucked in right away
betting than Week one at the Buffalo Bills because it's like, oh,
it's Lamar.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
As a dog. Me and Chad talk all the time.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
If Lamar is under three, he's like twenty and three
against the spread something crazy when he's an underdog or
under three. So it's it's a tough start to the season.
But we just talked about there. I think they're number
two or number three in my model. They are insanely talented.
People want to bitch and moan that. You know, we
(08:45):
disrespect Lamar every year and we're too low on Lamar.
He ain't the number one guy, he ain't the number
two guy, and to me, he ain't the number three
guy because he just does not choping the playoffs and
he has these turnovers, which again last year he fixed it.
I think he only had four or five turnovers all season.
He has two inexplicable never happens Lamar turner against.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
That Bills team. So that's that's the issue people.
Speaker 4 (09:06):
I think you guys are all too much in denial
of shifting the blame where it has to be shifted
on the Lamar like he has the team around him.
They've supported him, they've gone out, they've gotten no weapons.
They went out and got Derrick Henry. Like Chet said,
we joked about Hopkins. Yes he's not a game changer,
but it's a cog in the machine.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Like you few of him.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
As your third receiver, bying Zay Flowers. You know, Isaiah
likely should be backed by week two or three. Him
and Mark Andrews. Those are two really good tight ends.
So yeah, people can tell I'm hyped up about this team.
It's just be patient. I just think that started the
season is so brutal. Super Bowl six plus six hundred
and fifty, come on, there's no value in betting that
right now, So to me, I have no bet on
(09:46):
them when total wise, divisional wise, I would.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Say, just be patient.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
If you want to throw their division and win the
other teams and parlays, I got an issue with that,
But betting it's straight. I just I can't do it
with this team in this division, just because it's it's
gonna be better value to me by the time it
gets their bye week.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
You just mentioned the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
I have nothing more to say about the Ravens other
than what you said, like love them. My final note
in sort of my notes in the script is their
schedule is fucking brutal, and so it's a hard way
to start the year. The Bengals, meanwhile, super interesting value
to me, probably not in the way people expect because
(10:25):
of how much I love Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that
they started it, with a die hard commitment. The Bengals
battle tenaciously.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Division plus two, sixty, Conference plus eight fifty, Super Bowl
eighteen one win total nine and a half. You downgraded
Joe Burrow out of your top four QBS entirely right
to me. The management continues to find ways to completely
kill any mojo and just put more more obstacles in
(11:01):
front of Joe Burrow, who it's very possible he goes
down as like Dan Marino, where he's got an incredible
career and has that early Super Bowl appearance and never
gets back because I think the franchise is so incompetent,
(11:22):
and we saw it on display this entire offseason. They
draft Shamar Stewart, then they put an unprecedented clause in
his contract that he cannot sign, which leads to acrimony
and a bad holdout for a guy, by the way,
who had zero production in college. They basically reached in
(11:46):
the first round for a combine Warrior. They just drafted
the twenty twenty five version of Mike Mamula, And I
will go back to what an NFL scout said to
me who I spoke to after or the draft, and
his comment to me was, NFL or college coaches, they
(12:06):
want to win two. They're not going to build schemes
that don't include their best player unless that best player
is not good enough to produce. Shamar Stewart was the
best talent, the best athlete on that Texas and team
and did not produce. Meanwhile, the guy who is supposed
(12:28):
to be on the opposite side and getting some relief
from Shamar Stewart, Trey Hendrickson, Like they've gone out of
their way to alienate their best defensive player on a really,
really bad defense, because that defense is why they missed
the playoffs last year. And I don't think they've done
anything to sort of immediately fix it other than adding
(12:51):
Al Golden, the defensive coordinator who had been with Notre Dame.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
So that's terrible. Simon. The last thing, their offensive line.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Got worse, and it was already the worst offensive line
in the NFL. So they're not protecting their quarterback, they're
not doing anything to get the opposing offenses off the field,
and they're not doing anything to help their players find
some peace and happiness with the franchise, give me the
under nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Yeah, you know it's bad when Chad goes and they
did out at Al Golden, Like who the fuck cares
about Al Golden?
Speaker 2 (13:29):
That's what I mean, Like I got to have some talent.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Brutal, Yeah, brutal.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
So it's like they're they're literally it's as if they
got someone slashed in with a sword and they literally
put the smallest band aid possible on that gash, and
it's like, what the fuck happened?
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Like how did they how did they every? Like as
I did the research, and like we all have our biases.
Sorry to cut you off, but like we always get so.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Enamored with quarterbacks and think they can, to your point,
band aid over everything. And we love Joe Burrow, but
you were ahead of this, Like this team is just
not good enough to do anything, even keep Joe Burrow upright,
it's just not going to be enough to have Joe Burrow,
Jamar Chase and t Higgins.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Like it's just not there.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
And this team is the definition of wins or a
QB stat because without Joe Burrow they're getting maybe two wins,
three wins. So Joe he will carry this corpse of
a team to eight nine, ten wins, and if you
want to take that over nine and a half, go ahead.
But to me, I have him at eight wins, so
I have him a full game.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
And a half below it.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
And you know, god damn, we're people mad that I
had Joe Burrow number six as my quarterback rankings.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
And I get it, like no.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
One's doubting the talent level of Joe Burrow. But you
can see, like some of those sacks he takes, that's
on Joe, And I heard people complain, well, he did
show up. Look at his stats against the Chiefs and
the Egles, all these teams last year.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
You need to go back and watch the games.
Speaker 4 (14:57):
You need to go back and watch that Chiefs game
where it's thirty and six, there's two minutes left. He
has the ball and if he gets our first down,
the game is basically over and he misses the hot
read and he takes a really bad sack on a
very easy to read blitz coming to him when he's
going against that Baltimore Ravens team, which you know, that
game haunts me last year in this wall turnover again
(15:18):
that falls onto Joe. So it's once again coming to
the season.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
I get why.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
People are so in love with Joe Burrow and the
weapons he has him. It's a fantasy football team. This again.
The joke is this team is constructed by a thirteen
year old. Like they were like, Okay, let's pay t Higgins,
let's pay Chase, let's pay our quarterback, and then let's
not pay anybody else. Let's just go cheap on every
other position, and you know, let our best safety walk.
(15:43):
Chat just talk about letting Trey Hendricks walk. I can't
believe it's real. I really can't believe they didn't pay
Trey where. You know he has been opened that he's
he loves the Bengals. He grew up a Bengals fan,
and he was willing to take a discount to stay.
He just wants guaranteed money, which you should pay them.
You should pay him that guaranteed money because the splits
between him on the field and off the field for
(16:04):
your defense is so extreme.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
But they're not.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
They're just very stubborn and it's bad ownership. And their
window was that Joe Burrow rookie year because you had
the stud quarterback and his number one receiver and paid
them nothing. You could have paid the rest of your team,
and you let guys walk. You didn't pay certain players.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
So yeah, this is to me a very don dumb
Joe public bet.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
If you've taken any positive position on this Bengals teams,
you clearly never looked into what their defense was going
to be. You clearly overthought what their quarterback position is.
Where I just said it, like again, it doesn't sound
great to you. Joe Burrow is a top five, top
six quarterback to many people.
Speaker 3 (16:47):
That is very impressive for this kid.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
But we talk all the time, you have to build
it out around them, and they failed them on the offensive.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Line, they failed him on the defense.
Speaker 4 (16:55):
So yeah, I'm on their under I'm on their plus
one eighty five to not make the playoffs. And would
I be shocked if they can back toward the way
And no, because we just talked about Joe Burrows one
of the best quarterbacks on football.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But how are they going to hold leads?
Speaker 4 (17:10):
They won't I'm telling you people, they won't be able
to stop anybody. And Joe, just like he did last year,
we'll try to do too much and he won't make mistakes.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
So we saw it last year.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
As long as they play bad teams below five hundred,
they were dominant. Soon as they played a team above
five hundred or a playoff team, they got rolled.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
And that's just what it's going to be like this season.
So you know, they could get fluky.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Wins here and there, they could get to this win
till they could back their way into the playoffs, but you.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Know, super Bowl winning their.
Speaker 4 (17:36):
Conference, like they just they feel so far below the Chiefs,
the Bills, the Ravens. Hell, you can even throw the
Broncos in there if you want. I just I just
cannot get there with the Cincinnati team. So I know
it sucks to be doom and gloom on them. We
both love Joe and it's a really fun team, but
their window feels like it's closed and it's going to
(17:57):
be a three to four year rebuild because they've failed
on so many different levels with that offensive line, that defense.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
So yeah, again, it's it's so negative right now.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
But of all the teams's division, they feel like, I mean,
we're gonna talk about Pittsburgh in a second, but they
feel like they're a team whose window is closed and
they're going to need to rebuild for three four years,
and that's that's exactly wh we don't want to be
in this division that you know right now, the Ravens
just feel like five years ahead of them.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
So you mentioned the schedule, and I thought you you
pointed it out brilliantly.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
They got bad teams.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
They got the Browns, Yeah, they got the Jets, they
got the Jags, who are an unknown quantity right now.
Every other game on their roster because they've got the
NFC North feels like a fifty to fifty proposition between
having to play each of their teams twice, especially the Ravens,
(18:53):
and having to play all of the NFC North teams,
those are six really hard games.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah, for this team, I can't find the wins.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
I can't find.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
I can't find. People are giving me about having no
eight wins, that's being nice.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I feel like I can't fight the guaranteed wins.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Like in every schedule elite teams, you can find the
guaranteed wins.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Yeah, I can't.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Find the games where I'm like, oh, yeah, the Bengals
should easily win that game in any of those except
for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
And the Jets. That's fair, that's it, But that's.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Not when you want to be betting on a team
to get to double digit wins.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
I'm glad we're on the same side on that.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
I didn't know which way you were going to go
because I know you're a little down on Burrow, but
you know, we don't talk about this, so.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I never yeah me being down, Bros. I have them
at number six my top ten quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
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Speaker 2 (20:24):
The Pittsburg Stealers.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Ah I hit that horn, Babe, Let's day.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
It Stealers plus five point fifty to win the Division
twenty to one to win the Conference super Bowl forty one.
Win total eight and a half. Feels like we're getting
a Mike Tomlin balance at the eight and a half.
Their defense is great if if everyone is fat and
happy right and right now, they're not.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
TJ.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Watt, who by the way, is thirty one years old,
has a new deal. Cam Hayward a hold in only
been sort of doing light prack just work, but has
said he'll sit out games. Got Annon Rodgers obviously, who
has not been Anaron Rodgers for years. Their greatest asset
is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins. And
(21:16):
that's why I think the win total is even at
eight and a half. Like otherwise, if you judge this
just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half.
I think, like if I were betting this team, I
probably wait until the second half of the year and
(21:37):
see if I can get and adjusted under because the
first half of the year Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahowse Colts
like not terrible, but the second half of the year
they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions gets harder. What do
you think of this?
Speaker 4 (21:54):
Yeah, just an interesting build team like you talk about
the defense. I think it's one hundred and six two
million that they've spent on their defense, and you know,
being an Eagles fan, I think we're at maybe seventy million.
So it's like, are they ninety million dollars better than
the Eagles defense? Probably not, But that's how it is
when Chad Tuckler, you're paying older guys big contracts, and
(22:16):
you know, Cam Hayward, I'd be ripping my fucking hair
out if I work in that front office.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Who the fuck does this guy think?
Speaker 4 (22:23):
He is signing a new deal last year now coming
in a year later, being all pissy, He's saying I
out played that contract the year before.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
Not getting weird, right, bizarre?
Speaker 4 (22:32):
There must be something else because everything you've ever read
about Cam is he's like the man. He's a football
guys team first, Yeah, just the man. But you know
what is he thirty six thirty seven? He gets it
where he's like, that was probably as good as it
gets last year, and if I can get one more payday,
I might as well try it and try to be
(22:54):
a piece of shit about it. Where it's everyone else
on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ.
We've signed all these guys, I mean even like even
their kickers having some drama about money. So it's like,
what is going on with Pittsburgh. They try to be
good and pay their guys, and now all these other
players are thrown on their face being like I want more,
want I deserve more.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's tough.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
And again, this is another team that I wanted to
be on them as a sneaky team in this division
where it's like, you know, everyone's talking Ravens.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Bengals, Steelers, if Rogers.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
You know, again, as much as people left him for dead,
he did look so much better that second half of
the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing
off his back foot, where.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
For the first eight nine weeks he did not do that.
He was very timid. And you know, we know the deal.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
This is not Brady going to the Bucks. Rogers is
not built that way. He doesn't play the same style.
And you know, this is the guy that relied a
lot on his athleticism and that's gone. So now we're
sitting with a watch at a bottom, you know, not
top twenty, but maybe top twenty five quarterback. Like I'm
(24:02):
trying to think where I even fit in Rogers now.
And when I model this team out, my model doesn't
get the Tomlin effect.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
You just nailed it.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Like my model has him at seven wins, so I
have him at a game and a half below it.
But a computer doesn't understand that Tomlin. It's he's a glitch.
There's nothing like in coaching wise, like this guy just
wille So what's.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
The value of that though, Like to me, I think
they're giving him. You say they're at seven. I had
it at seven and a half, and I think they're
getting an extra game just because of Tomlin.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Yeah, I mean if you think Rabel's worth two and
a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you, then Chad, Like,
as much as I want to give respect of Rabel,
Tomlin's that dude. And I know he doesn't have the success,
but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash
at the quarterback position and he makes it work because
he just wills this team special teams, defense.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Whatever it is. So we know the deal.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
Like this team, I think you just nailed it too,
where it's like you want to take a position later
and take their under. That was the move last year
and I hate that I missed it where we all
kind of started drinking the kool aid on you know,
Russell Wilson because he came in he was so dynamic
and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But
we kept saying ourselves, the number doesn't back it up.
When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not it's just luck.
(25:17):
Like his fifty to fifty balls deep downfield. Eventually it's
gonna go the other way. And I think they went.
I don't know if it was five straight games. They
just got worked. At the end of the season, they
couldn't cover either. So I look at this team that
if they just have a stable position player and Aaron
Rodgers the quarterback position and he can get the ball
to DK and they can make it work offensively, and
(25:37):
you know this rookie of the draft can be the
number one running back. Great, But like I have so
many questions about their offensive line. I have so many
questions about their run block and all the offensive line.
I just I can't get it get there and be excited.
So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.
But yeah, like as we sit here right now, this
is another game where It's like I have two other teams.
I rather bet heavier on their win total the Bango's
(25:59):
under much rather bet that, and then we're about to
talk Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
So yeah, I'm just I'm.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Uninspired by Pittsburgh and I feel bad for their fans
where it's just you're just stuck in this middle, floating
around position and they basically they burned the boats, Chad.
Like I just talked about the Bengals missed their window,
this is Pittsburgh's window. Like they have a very old,
expensive defense that maybe one or two years here left,
Like you literally went out and got Sleigh. You know,
(26:27):
I love Sleigh obviously him and Ramsey. Yes, that could
be good cornerbacks or could be two dudes way over
the hill that are about to get absolutely cooked by
almost every team in their divisions wide receivers. So that's
that's the fear here is They're just a very old
team with a lot of guys who could get a
lot of injuries. So I just I can't get excited again.
Four to one Super Bowl odds. Who's betting that? Who's
(26:48):
betting Pittsburgh at four to one thinking they're gonna hold
up through the whole year in the AFC. I just
it's very bizarre with their team. I feel like back
in the day they would have been sixty or fifty
five to one. The books are just giving U shit
odds in the Super Bowl, So yeah, no better e other
than the win total.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Here feels very.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Washington team formerly known as Mid nineteen nineties late nineteen nineties,
signing big name players who have long track records, hoping
that is the key.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
When does this ever work out?
Speaker 1 (27:25):
When do you ever sign a forty plus year old quarterback,
give up draft picks for a always disgruntled, high maintenance receiver,
and then go all in on two cornerbacks who have
been bouncing around in the latter stages of their career
(27:45):
because they might be in the latter stages of their career.
This has never worked in the history of football.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
This has never worked.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
That's why they just got to hope on Tomlin, Like
that's the whole team is just built around Tomlin. It
feels like where it's just you need to make all
these personalities work, and it's tough.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
I feel like that's not a recipe for success in
the NFL. Last I checked, you actually have to have
good players.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Yeah, I mean it's just it's brutal.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Hey, speaking of good players, how about those Cleveland Browns, cleve.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Len Rots, cleveln Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Thirty to one to win the division. I had to
check that three times. There are one hundred to one
to win the conference, two hundred to one to win
the Super Bowl win total four and a half tied
with the Giants for the longest division odds in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
It's a tricky one.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
It's actually similar to the Giants, right because their defense
is so good, especially the defensive line. When you and
I talked about the Giants during the nfca's preview, like,
we talked about their defensive line and they're how good
it is, especially with Dexter Lawrence. The Browns obviously have
Miles Garrett. We have a bias to the defense, but
(29:03):
last year we did get caught a couple of times,
like believing their defense would be good enough to keep
games close, and then the offense was just so incompetent
there was no saving this team. So, like Joe Flacco
is going to be the starting quarterback, I don't know
that I have more confidence in this team. Because he's
(29:25):
doing that right, Like, can they beat the Jets and
the Titans? Those are the games that like would maybe
you can circle them as wins, But I don't know, man,
you seem to have a strong opinion here.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
I fucking love this Browns team, give me that over
four and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
I love this team so much.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
And it's another team that people just they're out on them, right,
it's a gross team.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
They got the QB drama right. They drafted these two
young kids. Even Chad was.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
Like, no, it'll be Shador starting where I knew all along,
It's gonna be Joe fucking Flacco. Man, it's just what
he does. Baby, He's just the contonment pro doesn't say much.
He's my favorite line he had where they were like, yeah,
you're gonna mentor these guys and help.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Them out, and he goes, no, I'm this is my job.
I'm here to win.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
They want to copy me and watch how I go
about my business. That's how I mentor them. I'll show
on what it's like to be a professional quarterback. Was
he thirty nine years old? Thirty eight years old?
Speaker 3 (30:20):
I mean, it's it's crazy that Joe is still in
the league, still a.
Speaker 4 (30:24):
Starter, and the disrespect of this team is getting because
last year they had nothing at the quarterback position.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Joe is not nothing like.
Speaker 4 (30:33):
Yes, you could say he was bad last year with
that Colts team, that to me was so much dysfunction
within the organization, where the Browns you could say they
had this sicks function.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
I look at this. Fanski is a great coach.
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I think he plays within a system that when a
quarterback can run his system, it's a good functioning system.
And their their offensive line isn't as bad as people
think it is. And Jerry Judy to me, is a
great super receiver, especially fantasy football this year.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
This is a deep threat.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
Think he might have fourteen hundred yards last year when
they again they had nothing at the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
Position last year.
Speaker 4 (31:05):
So Jerry Judy a guy who was a number one
pick that Denver up offloaded and he went to the
Browns and you've seen the talent spark. You've not heard
a single thing about Jerry ju this offseeas you know why,
because he doesn't fuck around and do stupid shit in
the offseason. He just does work. And he's coming to
training camp and he's put in work and apparently him
in Flacco had a great connection. So to me, you know,
they've had a lot of the legal issues with this
(31:26):
rookie running.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
Back they drafted.
Speaker 4 (31:28):
It looks like it worked out that this kid is
going to be okay and be able to play football. Sure,
it might get suspended four games because you know, he
did some horrible shit in the NFL. Even though he's
not legally getting charged, the NFL might still punish him.
They still have other guys they drafted. There's other kids.
Sampson as a rookie. They have Ford, another running back
they could put in there. Okay, so there's our weapons there.
And now you think about their defense, Chad just nailed it,
(31:51):
like this defense might.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Be really good.
Speaker 4 (31:54):
Like their question for their secondary, they've added pieces of
this offseason to the secondary to try to improve it.
And my favorite thing of reading about Eagles joint practice
with the Browns was you literally can't practice when Miles
Garrett's on the field because he ruined every single play.
You can never run a play with him on the field.
And didn't matter when they had Lane Johnson out there
in Malata, he was beating those guys And a lot
(32:16):
of joke they were like, hey, Lota, can you take
anything away from playing against a guy like Miles Garrett
goes no, because he does think that no other human
on this planet can do that. Plays football like no
one else can throw me back five feet with one
arm while spinning the other way and going around me.
So it's like, you have the guys up front again.
In the draft, they went out and tried to draft
(32:36):
guys on the front line again. They traded down to
get more equity for next year because they're they're what
the general public things, right. Their a team that views
them as being a bad team. The front office doesn't
have high hopes for this team. But to me, that's
the type teams I like. Were inside guys like Flack
when other guys they believe in this team.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
So there's another team.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Where it's like, Okay, if you want to bet the
win total, I get it, but it's four and a half.
Like they can find four and a half wins with
a veteran quarterback and a veteran defense like this and
a good head coach. Like they're even Week one against Cincinnati,
I think they're five and a half or six point dog.
We've seen Cincinnati come out slow, and I know they've
tried to be playing guys in spring training and so
(33:16):
they're up to speed.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Joe Flackoll might throw for.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
Three hundred and fifty yards against this defense, like they're
this might end up being a shootout, and who has
the better defense by far, it's going to be this
Brown team even get stops, and I feel like a
lot of games this year they will be able to
get stops defensively and be able to move the ball offensively.
So I know it's gross and it's ugly looking, but
I really like the four and a half And I
can't be what I'm saying to do it, but you
have to because it's thirty to one.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
You have to throw a dollar on this division A
lots like you have to do.
Speaker 4 (33:43):
It where there is a world where Lamar, who plays
a very aggressive style, does get banged up. And there
is a world where we talked about the Bengals are
just not that good of a team in Pittsburgh is
maybe a nine win team. The Browns could get there.
Like I know, people just don't believe them. It's just
hard to squinch your eye and see it. But it's
like if you have a good defense. If you have
a good offensive line and everyone's healthy, that has such
(34:06):
a huge advantage end of the season where so many
teams are dealing with injuries and injuries to important positions
heading into the season, where the Browns really don't have that,
Like all the dramas kind of media made up where
Dylan Gabriel and Shador they were never gonna be the starters.
They're fighting for that number two jobs. So I just
love how it's lined up in position for this Browns team.
(34:27):
And you know, it's the fact that it's four and
a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total.
I'll adjust to take the six and a half and
plus two hundred over, Like that's just a fun bet
to make where if I think this team's gonna pop,
I think they'll pop to that over. So yeah, this
is a team that was five and a half. The
pros the general public for the most part of bet
this down because I think most of them thought it
(34:47):
was gonna be Shador or Dylan Gabriel to be the starter.
And now that it's Flacco. How can you not love
this team at four and a half win total, I
love the value. So again, I don't have them grated
at like ten wins. I have them five and a
half wins, so it's not crazy. But I don't think
my computer really understands how important is I have a
veteran quarterback like Flaco, with a great offensive mind like Stefanski,
(35:08):
and again two years ago, this is a duo that
made the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Like this is a.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
Taantum that works, and we've seen it work before. So
I just think people are too low on this team
for all the scars they had last year, where it's
a new year and they're not as bad as people perceive.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Strong opinion on the Cleveland Browns very strong. It seems
like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Brown's over four
and a half the Bengals under nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
I also like a Ravens Super Bowl matchup.
Speaker 1 (35:40):
I think probably like Ravens Lions super Bowl matchup. Bet
you know, I'm going to bet Ravens Lions, Ravens Eagles,
probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup
round robin. Do you have a specific team you would
match them with?
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Don't hate it, you just you know my feeling about
playoff golf. Yeah, I know, but I don't mind it.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Like again, I've I have done Ravens Eagles, I've done
Ravens forty nine ers, I've done Ravens Rams. So I'm
with you where it's like as much shit as I
like talking about Lamar, it's like paying Manning, payon Manning
for seven years, couldn't get out of the shadow of
Brady and eventually he breaks through. And it's just it's
only a matter of time for josh Alla Lamar as
they're in their prime, the talent's there. Can they show
(36:30):
up in the playoffs and the biggest moments and live
up to it. So I'm with you on bet and
Ravens futures. It's like, don't bet them, you know, just
to win the Super Bowl's plus six fifty.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
That's a stupid bet. Bet the matchups people.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
The Favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on
the Action Network YouTube page, where we cover our NFL
Best bets for the twenty twenty five NFL season and
a college football Week one with our special BBOC Podcasts
guests Downlodus from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,
(37:04):
wevi as five stars.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Love You.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
podcast Network.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Mike, and
Padre might be a FF professional. Better signon Hunter, and
also I'm in Chad.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We are so close to having real football?
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Two weeks from today is the kickoff for the twenty
twenty five NFL season, which means that today is our
last division to preview. We are doing the n the
AFC North. We got the grittiest, most blue collar franchises
(00:51):
in the NFL, and the Bengals. I don't boom reminder,
I'm letting everybody know which divisions everybody is playing in
their schedule so they get a sense of it. AFC North,
in its conference, plays the AFC East and they also
(01:14):
play the NFC North Baltimore Ravens. I doing my research
started falling more and more in love with this team.
We're going to get to the Achilles Heel, which is
(01:34):
always the same division minus one sixty conference plus three
twenty five Super Bowl plus six point fifty win total
eleven and a half. Simon, do you want to hear
why I absolutely love the Ravens right now.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
C It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
This is a team that you know, generationally has had
an incredible coaching staff and an incredible personnel department. Right
their front office has been legit. That's why there has
been no transition for them. In the first half of
last year. Clearly, their defense was terrible, right Zach Orr,
the new defensive coordinator, had Kyle Hamilton playing closer to
(02:25):
the line of scrimmage, and this team was getting burned
so often.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
They were giving up.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
So many points, and as a better we had a
lot of chances. It was clear early on that they
were not able to maintain leads and we were able
to bet against them because they kept giving up the
back door and their spreads were so high. Like the
public is always on the Ravens. Then they made some
significant personnel adjustments in the middle of the years, specifically
(02:51):
Kyle Hamilton moving back into a more traditional safety role
defending against sort of the long, bulsive plays that had
been killing them. After going five to five and one
the first eleven year eleven games against spread, they went
five to one in the final six amazing, Right, What
(03:13):
I love about the Ravens is they don't get complacent.
What did they do? Their secondary Kyle Hamilton masked some
of the weaknesses they had. So what did they do?
They added JayR Alexander from the Packers. They drafted Malachi
Starks from Georgia. They added Chuck Pegano as a secondary coach. Right,
(03:35):
they just got better defensively. And oh, by the way,
they added DeAndre Hopkins for Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
So amazing. Love this team. And then none of it will.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Matter if they can't figure out how to lose Lamar
in the right way in a playoff game. Right, So, like,
I want to do everything with this team. I want
to bet them at every level. And I still worry
about Lamar and not being you know, the player that
he lived that he is during the regular season when
we get to a playoff game.
Speaker 4 (04:09):
Yeah, and the biggest thing jumped out. We had that
Bachelor part again. I'm not around just Joe Schmoe normal people.
That often was the Ravens hype. Everyone all these Joe
public people love the Ravens super Bowl bet right, That's
that's who these Eagles fans think they're gonna be playing
in the Super Bowl this upcoming season. I am just like,
where's that confidence come from? Why do you have more
(04:30):
confidence than little more than you do and josh Alla
Mahomes and I think it is because of what you
just talked about, Chad, that this team once again is
absolutely stacked. And you know, this is my pushback on
the Hurts disrespect was two years ago. You could argue
that Ravens team that lost at home to Kansas City
(04:52):
was one of the greatest teams ever in anyone's model,
Like I know DVLA had them as I think a
third best team ever record on their database. You know,
this is one of the best franchises at drafting ever,
Like they consistently draft so well, and Chad just talked
about they attacked free agency every year as well, So
you don't think they have the money and they cheat
(05:14):
in other areas, right, Like their d line, their detackles
might not be the best, but they're just so dominant
in other areas. Right they might have the arguably the
best safety and the best linebacker in all football. So
it's like when you have Roquan When you have someone
that dominant, someone who can tackle so well, it changes
the dynamic of the team, right, That makes teams have
(05:35):
to pass the ball. So that's what they went out,
Chad just talked with. They went out and try to
attack the secondary, something they viewed early in the year.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Last year that was a weakness.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Like Chad said, they were awful at defense first eight
weeks of the season. And you know, their head, their coordinator,
the DC, I think it was my age. I think
it was thirty four to thirty five years old.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So it makes sense. Okay, this guy is in over
his head.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
He apparently reached out to other people and had people
come in and help him out.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
And with that, that's a beautiful thing in life. You
can be humble and take.
Speaker 4 (06:01):
Outside help and everything you have all the answers, it's
only gonna make you better as a person.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
Grow and that's what happened with their defense. So grew,
it got better.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
Like you said, towards end of the season, they were
probably the best defense left in the AFC. But this
year they ran into was you know Josh Allen, he
showed up and that was this year they ran into
it was like, okay, you guys are a great defense.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
You're going against the MVP.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
There never is a great defense to stop the MVP
right when the MVP is clicking. It doesn't matter how
great and dominant or defense was that year, just it's
not gonna live up to that moment.
Speaker 3 (06:35):
And it sucked for them. They did. They got stops.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Into that game right, and it was all in Lamar's hands,
and yes, Mark Andrews dropped it, but it was a
little too late, like even if they scored, we talked
about there was too much time left. So you know,
me and Chad, this is a long winted answer that
I love this team as well as you do, but
this is another team that I'm happy to be patient
on because we're starting.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
The NFL season starts in two weeks.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
If you've already missed the boat on them divisional odds
and if you don't want to bet the win total,
I would honestly wait because.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Of the way their schedule starts.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
I know if you look at this chat, but they
literally start at Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, at Kansas City, Houston
Rams than the bye week.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
So to me, pretty simple position there.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Hold on, hold on, you're missing one game the Juggernaut
Chicago Bears.
Speaker 3 (07:24):
What after the bye week? I think so yeah, I
think they'll be prayer. I think they'll be prayed for
that one. But yeah, I just I look at their schedule.
It's like, why rush to the window right now?
Speaker 4 (07:34):
Can't we be patient here and hope you know, Pittsburgh
has a great start. The Bengals, who we both don't
really believe, and come out on a hot start. So
it's like, you know, everyone in the world, every drill
public I talked to is drinking the Ravens school aid.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
I think it's a nice team to step back from.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
Let them hopefully start five hundred or you know, even
four and two. I think you could get potentially better
odds here this team. So yeah, I'm I'm happy to
be patient on them, just because what an insane start
to your season, Like you're literally going through the three
arguably the three best teams without not including the Eagles
in all football. So yeah, it's it's tough where I remember,
(08:16):
like months ago, I almost got sucked in right away
betting than Week one at the Buffalo Bills because it's like, oh,
it's Lamar.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
As a dog. Me and Chad talk all the time.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
If Lamar is under three, he's like twenty and three
against the spread something crazy when he's an underdog or
under three. So it's it's a tough start to the season.
But we just talked about there. I think they're number
two or number three in my model. They are insanely talented.
People want to bitch and moan that. You know, we
(08:45):
disrespect Lamar every year and we're too low on Lamar.
He ain't the number one guy, he ain't the number
two guy, and to me, he ain't the number three
guy because he just does not choping the playoffs and
he has these turnovers, which again last year he fixed it.
I think he only had four or five turnovers all season.
He has two inexplicable never happens Lamar turner against.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
That Bills team. So that's that's the issue people.
Speaker 4 (09:06):
I think you guys are all too much in denial
of shifting the blame where it has to be shifted
on the Lamar like he has the team around him.
They've supported him, they've gone out, they've gotten no weapons.
They went out and got Derrick Henry. Like Chet said,
we joked about Hopkins. Yes he's not a game changer,
but it's a cog in the machine.
Speaker 3 (09:23):
Like you few of him.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
As your third receiver, bying Zay Flowers. You know, Isaiah
likely should be backed by week two or three. Him
and Mark Andrews. Those are two really good tight ends.
So yeah, people can tell I'm hyped up about this team.
It's just be patient. I just think that started the
season is so brutal. Super Bowl six plus six hundred
and fifty, come on, there's no value in betting that
right now, So to me, I have no bet on
(09:46):
them when total wise, divisional wise, I would.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
Say, just be patient.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
If you want to throw their division and win the
other teams and parlays, I got an issue with that,
But betting it's straight. I just I can't do it
with this team in this division, just because it's it's
gonna be better value to me by the time it
gets their bye week.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
You just mentioned the Bengals.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
I have nothing more to say about the Ravens other
than what you said, like love them. My final note
in sort of my notes in the script is their
schedule is fucking brutal, and so it's a hard way
to start the year. The Bengals, meanwhile, super interesting value
to me, probably not in the way people expect because
(10:25):
of how much I love Joe Burrow.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that
they started it, with a die hard commitment. The Bengals
battle tenaciously.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Division plus two, sixty, Conference plus eight fifty, Super Bowl
eighteen one win total nine and a half. You downgraded
Joe Burrow out of your top four QBS entirely right
to me. The management continues to find ways to completely
kill any mojo and just put more more obstacles in
(11:01):
front of Joe Burrow, who it's very possible he goes
down as like Dan Marino, where he's got an incredible
career and has that early Super Bowl appearance and never
gets back because I think the franchise is so incompetent,
(11:22):
and we saw it on display this entire offseason. They
draft Shamar Stewart, then they put an unprecedented clause in
his contract that he cannot sign, which leads to acrimony
and a bad holdout for a guy, by the way,
who had zero production in college. They basically reached in
(11:46):
the first round for a combine Warrior. They just drafted
the twenty twenty five version of Mike Mamula, And I
will go back to what an NFL scout said to
me who I spoke to after or the draft, and
his comment to me was, NFL or college coaches, they
(12:06):
want to win two. They're not going to build schemes
that don't include their best player unless that best player
is not good enough to produce. Shamar Stewart was the
best talent, the best athlete on that Texas and team
and did not produce. Meanwhile, the guy who is supposed
(12:28):
to be on the opposite side and getting some relief
from Shamar Stewart, Trey Hendrickson, Like they've gone out of
their way to alienate their best defensive player on a really,
really bad defense, because that defense is why they missed
the playoffs last year. And I don't think they've done
anything to sort of immediately fix it other than adding
(12:51):
Al Golden, the defensive coordinator who had been with Notre Dame.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
So that's terrible. Simon. The last thing, their offensive line.
Speaker 1 (12:59):
Got worse, and it was already the worst offensive line
in the NFL. So they're not protecting their quarterback, they're
not doing anything to get the opposing offenses off the field,
and they're not doing anything to help their players find
some peace and happiness with the franchise, give me the
under nine and a half.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Yeah, you know it's bad when Chad goes and they
did out at Al Golden, Like who the fuck cares
about Al Golden?
Speaker 2 (13:29):
That's what I mean, Like I got to have some talent.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Brutal, Yeah, brutal.
Speaker 4 (13:33):
So it's like they're they're literally it's as if they
got someone slashed in with a sword and they literally
put the smallest band aid possible on that gash, and
it's like, what the fuck happened?
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Like how did they how did they every? Like as
I did the research, and like we all have our biases.
Sorry to cut you off, but like we always get so.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Enamored with quarterbacks and think they can, to your point,
band aid over everything. And we love Joe Burrow, but
you were ahead of this, Like this team is just
not good enough to do anything, even keep Joe Burrow upright,
it's just not going to be enough to have Joe Burrow,
Jamar Chase and t Higgins.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Like it's just not there.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
And this team is the definition of wins or a
QB stat because without Joe Burrow they're getting maybe two wins,
three wins. So Joe he will carry this corpse of
a team to eight nine, ten wins, and if you
want to take that over nine and a half, go ahead.
But to me, I have him at eight wins, so
I have him a full game.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
And a half below it.
Speaker 4 (14:35):
And you know, god damn, we're people mad that I
had Joe Burrow number six as my quarterback rankings.
Speaker 3 (14:40):
And I get it, like no.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
One's doubting the talent level of Joe Burrow. But you
can see, like some of those sacks he takes, that's
on Joe, And I heard people complain, well, he did
show up. Look at his stats against the Chiefs and
the Egles, all these teams last year.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
You need to go back and watch the games.
Speaker 4 (14:57):
You need to go back and watch that Chiefs game
where it's thirty and six, there's two minutes left. He
has the ball and if he gets our first down,
the game is basically over and he misses the hot
read and he takes a really bad sack on a
very easy to read blitz coming to him when he's
going against that Baltimore Ravens team, which you know, that
game haunts me last year in this wall turnover again
(15:18):
that falls onto Joe. So it's once again coming to
the season.
Speaker 3 (15:21):
I get why.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
People are so in love with Joe Burrow and the
weapons he has him. It's a fantasy football team. This again.
The joke is this team is constructed by a thirteen
year old. Like they were like, Okay, let's pay t Higgins,
let's pay Chase, let's pay our quarterback, and then let's
not pay anybody else. Let's just go cheap on every
other position, and you know, let our best safety walk.
(15:43):
Chat just talk about letting Trey Hendricks walk. I can't
believe it's real. I really can't believe they didn't pay
Trey where. You know he has been opened that he's
he loves the Bengals. He grew up a Bengals fan,
and he was willing to take a discount to stay.
He just wants guaranteed money, which you should pay them.
You should pay him that guaranteed money because the splits
between him on the field and off the field for
(16:04):
your defense is so extreme.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
But they're not.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
They're just very stubborn and it's bad ownership. And their
window was that Joe Burrow rookie year because you had
the stud quarterback and his number one receiver and paid
them nothing. You could have paid the rest of your team,
and you let guys walk. You didn't pay certain players.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
So yeah, this is to me a very don dumb
Joe public bet.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
If you've taken any positive position on this Bengals teams,
you clearly never looked into what their defense was going
to be. You clearly overthought what their quarterback position is.
Where I just said it, like again, it doesn't sound
great to you. Joe Burrow is a top five, top
six quarterback to many people.
Speaker 3 (16:47):
That is very impressive for this kid.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
But we talk all the time, you have to build
it out around them, and they failed them on the offensive.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Line, they failed him on the defense.
Speaker 4 (16:55):
So yeah, I'm on their under I'm on their plus
one eighty five to not make the playoffs. And would
I be shocked if they can back toward the way
And no, because we just talked about Joe Burrows one
of the best quarterbacks on football.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
But how are they going to hold leads?
Speaker 4 (17:10):
They won't I'm telling you people, they won't be able
to stop anybody. And Joe, just like he did last year,
we'll try to do too much and he won't make mistakes.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
So we saw it last year.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
As long as they play bad teams below five hundred,
they were dominant. Soon as they played a team above
five hundred or a playoff team, they got rolled.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
And that's just what it's going to be like this season.
So you know, they could get fluky.
Speaker 4 (17:30):
Wins here and there, they could get to this win
till they could back their way into the playoffs, but you.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
Know, super Bowl winning their.
Speaker 4 (17:36):
Conference, like they just they feel so far below the Chiefs,
the Bills, the Ravens. Hell, you can even throw the
Broncos in there if you want. I just I just
cannot get there with the Cincinnati team. So I know
it sucks to be doom and gloom on them. We
both love Joe and it's a really fun team, but
their window feels like it's closed and it's going to
(17:57):
be a three to four year rebuild because they've failed
on so many different levels with that offensive line, that defense.
Speaker 3 (18:03):
So yeah, again, it's it's so negative right now.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
But of all the teams's division, they feel like, I mean,
we're gonna talk about Pittsburgh in a second, but they
feel like they're a team whose window is closed and
they're going to need to rebuild for three four years,
and that's that's exactly wh we don't want to be
in this division that you know right now, the Ravens
just feel like five years ahead of them.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
So you mentioned the schedule, and I thought you you
pointed it out brilliantly.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
They got bad teams.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
They got the Browns, Yeah, they got the Jets, they
got the Jags, who are an unknown quantity right now.
Every other game on their roster because they've got the
NFC North feels like a fifty to fifty proposition between
having to play each of their teams twice, especially the Ravens,
(18:53):
and having to play all of the NFC North teams,
those are six really hard games.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah, for this team, I can't find the wins.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
I can't find.
Speaker 3 (19:05):
I can't find. People are giving me about having no
eight wins, that's being nice.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I feel like I can't fight the guaranteed wins.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
Like in every schedule elite teams, you can find the
guaranteed wins.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Yeah, I can't.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Find the games where I'm like, oh, yeah, the Bengals
should easily win that game in any of those except
for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
And the Jets. That's fair, that's it, But that's.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
Not when you want to be betting on a team
to get to double digit wins.
Speaker 2 (19:32):
I'm glad we're on the same side on that.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
I didn't know which way you were going to go
because I know you're a little down on Burrow, but
you know, we don't talk about this, so.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I never yeah me being down, Bros. I have them
at number six my top ten quarterbacks.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
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Speaker 2 (20:24):
The Pittsburg Stealers.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Ah I hit that horn, Babe, Let's day.
Speaker 1 (20:28):
It Stealers plus five point fifty to win the Division
twenty to one to win the Conference super Bowl forty one.
Win total eight and a half. Feels like we're getting
a Mike Tomlin balance at the eight and a half.
Their defense is great if if everyone is fat and
happy right and right now, they're not.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
TJ.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Watt, who by the way, is thirty one years old,
has a new deal. Cam Hayward a hold in only
been sort of doing light prack just work, but has
said he'll sit out games. Got Annon Rodgers obviously, who
has not been Anaron Rodgers for years. Their greatest asset
is Mike Tomlin and his ability to coax wins. And
(21:16):
that's why I think the win total is even at
eight and a half. Like otherwise, if you judge this
just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half.
I think, like if I were betting this team, I
probably wait until the second half of the year and
(21:37):
see if I can get and adjusted under because the
first half of the year Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahowse Colts
like not terrible, but the second half of the year
they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions gets harder. What do
you think of this?
Speaker 4 (21:54):
Yeah, just an interesting build team like you talk about
the defense. I think it's one hundred and six two
million that they've spent on their defense, and you know,
being an Eagles fan, I think we're at maybe seventy million.
So it's like, are they ninety million dollars better than
the Eagles defense? Probably not, But that's how it is
when Chad Tuckler, you're paying older guys big contracts, and
(22:16):
you know, Cam Hayward, I'd be ripping my fucking hair
out if I work in that front office.
Speaker 3 (22:21):
Who the fuck does this guy think?
Speaker 4 (22:23):
He is signing a new deal last year now coming
in a year later, being all pissy, He's saying I
out played that contract the year before.
Speaker 3 (22:30):
Not getting weird, right, bizarre?
Speaker 4 (22:32):
There must be something else because everything you've ever read
about Cam is he's like the man. He's a football
guys team first, Yeah, just the man. But you know
what is he thirty six thirty seven? He gets it
where he's like, that was probably as good as it
gets last year, and if I can get one more payday,
I might as well try it and try to be
(22:54):
a piece of shit about it. Where it's everyone else
on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ.
We've signed all these guys, I mean even like even
their kickers having some drama about money. So it's like,
what is going on with Pittsburgh. They try to be
good and pay their guys, and now all these other
players are thrown on their face being like I want more,
want I deserve more.
Speaker 3 (23:14):
It's tough.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
And again, this is another team that I wanted to
be on them as a sneaky team in this division
where it's like, you know, everyone's talking Ravens.
Speaker 3 (23:22):
Bengals, Steelers, if Rogers.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
You know, again, as much as people left him for dead,
he did look so much better that second half of
the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing
off his back foot, where.
Speaker 3 (23:35):
For the first eight nine weeks he did not do that.
He was very timid. And you know, we know the deal.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
This is not Brady going to the Bucks. Rogers is
not built that way. He doesn't play the same style.
And you know, this is the guy that relied a
lot on his athleticism and that's gone. So now we're
sitting with a watch at a bottom, you know, not
top twenty, but maybe top twenty five quarterback. Like I'm
(24:02):
trying to think where I even fit in Rogers now.
And when I model this team out, my model doesn't
get the Tomlin effect.
Speaker 3 (24:09):
You just nailed it.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Like my model has him at seven wins, so I
have him at a game and a half below it.
But a computer doesn't understand that Tomlin. It's he's a glitch.
There's nothing like in coaching wise, like this guy just
wille So what's.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
The value of that though, Like to me, I think
they're giving him. You say they're at seven. I had
it at seven and a half, and I think they're
getting an extra game just because of Tomlin.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
Yeah, I mean if you think Rabel's worth two and
a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you, then Chad, Like,
as much as I want to give respect of Rabel,
Tomlin's that dude. And I know he doesn't have the success,
but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash
at the quarterback position and he makes it work because
he just wills this team special teams, defense.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Whatever it is. So we know the deal.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
Like this team, I think you just nailed it too,
where it's like you want to take a position later
and take their under. That was the move last year
and I hate that I missed it where we all
kind of started drinking the kool aid on you know,
Russell Wilson because he came in he was so dynamic
and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But
we kept saying ourselves, the number doesn't back it up.
When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not it's just luck.
(25:17):
Like his fifty to fifty balls deep downfield. Eventually it's
gonna go the other way. And I think they went.
I don't know if it was five straight games. They
just got worked. At the end of the season, they
couldn't cover either. So I look at this team that
if they just have a stable position player and Aaron
Rodgers the quarterback position and he can get the ball
to DK and they can make it work offensively, and
(25:37):
you know this rookie of the draft can be the
number one running back. Great, But like I have so
many questions about their offensive line. I have so many
questions about their run block and all the offensive line.
I just I can't get it get there and be excited.
So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.
But yeah, like as we sit here right now, this
is another game where It's like I have two other teams.
I rather bet heavier on their win total the Bango's
(25:59):
under much rather bet that, and then we're about to
talk Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (26:02):
So yeah, I'm just I'm.
Speaker 4 (26:04):
Uninspired by Pittsburgh and I feel bad for their fans
where it's just you're just stuck in this middle, floating
around position and they basically they burned the boats, Chad.
Like I just talked about the Bengals missed their window,
this is Pittsburgh's window. Like they have a very old,
expensive defense that maybe one or two years here left,
Like you literally went out and got Sleigh. You know,
(26:27):
I love Sleigh obviously him and Ramsey. Yes, that could
be good cornerbacks or could be two dudes way over
the hill that are about to get absolutely cooked by
almost every team in their divisions wide receivers. So that's
that's the fear here is They're just a very old
team with a lot of guys who could get a
lot of injuries. So I just I can't get excited again.
Four to one Super Bowl odds. Who's betting that? Who's
(26:48):
betting Pittsburgh at four to one thinking they're gonna hold
up through the whole year in the AFC. I just
it's very bizarre with their team. I feel like back
in the day they would have been sixty or fifty
five to one. The books are just giving U shit
odds in the Super Bowl, So yeah, no better e other
than the win total.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Here feels very.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Washington team formerly known as Mid nineteen nineties late nineteen nineties,
signing big name players who have long track records, hoping
that is the key.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
When does this ever work out?
Speaker 1 (27:25):
When do you ever sign a forty plus year old quarterback,
give up draft picks for a always disgruntled, high maintenance receiver,
and then go all in on two cornerbacks who have
been bouncing around in the latter stages of their career
(27:45):
because they might be in the latter stages of their career.
This has never worked in the history of football.
Speaker 2 (27:54):
This has never worked.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
That's why they just got to hope on Tomlin, Like
that's the whole team is just built around Tomlin. It
feels like where it's just you need to make all
these personalities work, and it's tough.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
I feel like that's not a recipe for success in
the NFL. Last I checked, you actually have to have
good players.
Speaker 3 (28:10):
Yeah, I mean it's just it's brutal.
Speaker 1 (28:12):
Hey, speaking of good players, how about those Cleveland Browns, cleve.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
Len Rots, cleveln Rocks, Cleveland Rocks, Cleveland Rocks.
Speaker 1 (28:23):
Thirty to one to win the division. I had to
check that three times. There are one hundred to one
to win the conference, two hundred to one to win
the Super Bowl win total four and a half tied
with the Giants for the longest division odds in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
It's a tricky one.
Speaker 1 (28:40):
It's actually similar to the Giants, right because their defense
is so good, especially the defensive line. When you and
I talked about the Giants during the nfca's preview, like,
we talked about their defensive line and they're how good
it is, especially with Dexter Lawrence. The Browns obviously have
Miles Garrett. We have a bias to the defense, but
(29:03):
last year we did get caught a couple of times,
like believing their defense would be good enough to keep
games close, and then the offense was just so incompetent
there was no saving this team. So, like Joe Flacco
is going to be the starting quarterback, I don't know
that I have more confidence in this team. Because he's
(29:25):
doing that right, Like, can they beat the Jets and
the Titans? Those are the games that like would maybe
you can circle them as wins, But I don't know, man,
you seem to have a strong opinion here.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
I fucking love this Browns team, give me that over
four and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:42):
I love this team so much.
Speaker 4 (29:44):
And it's another team that people just they're out on them, right,
it's a gross team.
Speaker 3 (29:50):
They got the QB drama right. They drafted these two
young kids. Even Chad was.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
Like, no, it'll be Shador starting where I knew all along,
It's gonna be Joe fucking Flacco. Man, it's just what
he does. Baby, He's just the contonment pro doesn't say much.
He's my favorite line he had where they were like, yeah,
you're gonna mentor these guys and help.
Speaker 3 (30:07):
Them out, and he goes, no, I'm this is my job.
I'm here to win.
Speaker 4 (30:10):
They want to copy me and watch how I go
about my business. That's how I mentor them. I'll show
on what it's like to be a professional quarterback. Was
he thirty nine years old? Thirty eight years old?
Speaker 3 (30:20):
I mean, it's it's crazy that Joe is still in
the league, still a.
Speaker 4 (30:24):
Starter, and the disrespect of this team is getting because
last year they had nothing at the quarterback position.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
Joe is not nothing like.
Speaker 4 (30:33):
Yes, you could say he was bad last year with
that Colts team, that to me was so much dysfunction
within the organization, where the Browns you could say they
had this sicks function.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
I look at this. Fanski is a great coach.
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I think he plays within a system that when a
quarterback can run his system, it's a good functioning system.
And their their offensive line isn't as bad as people
think it is. And Jerry Judy to me, is a
great super receiver, especially fantasy football this year.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
This is a deep threat.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
Think he might have fourteen hundred yards last year when
they again they had nothing at the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
Position last year.
Speaker 4 (31:05):
So Jerry Judy a guy who was a number one
pick that Denver up offloaded and he went to the
Browns and you've seen the talent spark. You've not heard
a single thing about Jerry ju this offseeas you know why,
because he doesn't fuck around and do stupid shit in
the offseason. He just does work. And he's coming to
training camp and he's put in work and apparently him
in Flacco had a great connection. So to me, you know,
they've had a lot of the legal issues with this
(31:26):
rookie running.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
Back they drafted.
Speaker 4 (31:28):
It looks like it worked out that this kid is
going to be okay and be able to play football. Sure,
it might get suspended four games because you know, he
did some horrible shit in the NFL. Even though he's
not legally getting charged, the NFL might still punish him.
They still have other guys they drafted. There's other kids.
Sampson as a rookie. They have Ford, another running back
they could put in there. Okay, so there's our weapons there.
And now you think about their defense, Chad just nailed it,
(31:51):
like this defense might.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Be really good.
Speaker 4 (31:54):
Like their question for their secondary, they've added pieces of
this offseason to the secondary to try to improve it.
And my favorite thing of reading about Eagles joint practice
with the Browns was you literally can't practice when Miles
Garrett's on the field because he ruined every single play.
You can never run a play with him on the field.
And didn't matter when they had Lane Johnson out there
in Malata, he was beating those guys And a lot
(32:16):
of joke they were like, hey, Lota, can you take
anything away from playing against a guy like Miles Garrett
goes no, because he does think that no other human
on this planet can do that. Plays football like no
one else can throw me back five feet with one
arm while spinning the other way and going around me.
So it's like, you have the guys up front again.
In the draft, they went out and tried to draft
(32:36):
guys on the front line again. They traded down to
get more equity for next year because they're they're what
the general public things, right. Their a team that views
them as being a bad team. The front office doesn't
have high hopes for this team. But to me, that's
the type teams I like. Were inside guys like Flack
when other guys they believe in this team.
Speaker 3 (32:52):
So there's another team.
Speaker 4 (32:54):
Where it's like, Okay, if you want to bet the
win total, I get it, but it's four and a half.
Like they can find four and a half wins with
a veteran quarterback and a veteran defense like this and
a good head coach. Like they're even Week one against Cincinnati,
I think they're five and a half or six point dog.
We've seen Cincinnati come out slow, and I know they've
tried to be playing guys in spring training and so
(33:16):
they're up to speed.
Speaker 3 (33:17):
Joe Flackoll might throw for.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
Three hundred and fifty yards against this defense, like they're
this might end up being a shootout, and who has
the better defense by far, it's going to be this
Brown team even get stops, and I feel like a
lot of games this year they will be able to
get stops defensively and be able to move the ball offensively.
So I know it's gross and it's ugly looking, but
I really like the four and a half And I
can't be what I'm saying to do it, but you
have to because it's thirty to one.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
You have to throw a dollar on this division A
lots like you have to do.
Speaker 4 (33:43):
It where there is a world where Lamar, who plays
a very aggressive style, does get banged up. And there
is a world where we talked about the Bengals are
just not that good of a team in Pittsburgh is
maybe a nine win team. The Browns could get there.
Like I know, people just don't believe them. It's just
hard to squinch your eye and see it. But it's
like if you have a good defense. If you have
a good offensive line and everyone's healthy, that has such
(34:06):
a huge advantage end of the season where so many
teams are dealing with injuries and injuries to important positions
heading into the season, where the Browns really don't have that,
Like all the dramas kind of media made up where
Dylan Gabriel and Shador they were never gonna be the starters.
They're fighting for that number two jobs. So I just
love how it's lined up in position for this Browns team.
(34:27):
And you know, it's the fact that it's four and
a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total.
I'll adjust to take the six and a half and
plus two hundred over, Like that's just a fun bet
to make where if I think this team's gonna pop,
I think they'll pop to that over. So yeah, this
is a team that was five and a half. The
pros the general public for the most part of bet
this down because I think most of them thought it
(34:47):
was gonna be Shador or Dylan Gabriel to be the starter.
And now that it's Flacco. How can you not love
this team at four and a half win total, I
love the value. So again, I don't have them grated
at like ten wins. I have them five and a
half wins, so it's not crazy. But I don't think
my computer really understands how important is I have a
veteran quarterback like Flaco, with a great offensive mind like Stefanski,
(35:08):
and again two years ago, this is a duo that
made the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Like this is a.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
Taantum that works, and we've seen it work before. So
I just think people are too low on this team
for all the scars they had last year, where it's
a new year and they're not as bad as people perceive.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Strong opinion on the Cleveland Browns very strong. It seems
like our best bets are clearly Cleveland Brown's over four
and a half the Bengals under nine and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
I also like a Ravens Super Bowl matchup.
Speaker 1 (35:40):
I think probably like Ravens Lions super Bowl matchup. Bet
you know, I'm going to bet Ravens Lions, Ravens Eagles,
probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup
round robin. Do you have a specific team you would
match them with?
Speaker 3 (36:00):
Don't hate it, you just you know my feeling about
playoff golf. Yeah, I know, but I don't mind it.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
Like again, I've I have done Ravens Eagles, I've done
Ravens forty nine ers, I've done Ravens Rams. So I'm
with you where it's like as much shit as I
like talking about Lamar, it's like paying Manning, payon Manning
for seven years, couldn't get out of the shadow of
Brady and eventually he breaks through. And it's just it's
only a matter of time for josh Alla Lamar as
they're in their prime, the talent's there. Can they show
(36:30):
up in the playoffs and the biggest moments and live
up to it. So I'm with you on bet and
Ravens futures. It's like, don't bet them, you know, just
to win the Super Bowl's plus six fifty.
Speaker 3 (36:38):
That's a stupid bet. Bet the matchups people.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
The Favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on
the Action Network YouTube page, where we cover our NFL
Best bets for the twenty twenty five NFL season and
a college football Week one with our special BBOC Podcasts
guests Downlodus from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,
(37:04):
wevi as five stars.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
Love You.
Speaker 3 (37:17):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred Gambler
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