August 21, 2024 • 48 mins
Are the Kansas City Chiefs destined to repeat as Super Bowl champs? Are the Chargers ready to shock the division under Jim Harbaugh? Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are back to discuss the AFC West, joined by NFL expert Matthew Freedman of Fantasy Life.
Together they talk about the chances of a Las Vegas Raiders playoff run, Simon's feelings on Bo Nix and the Broncos, and much more.
Plus, for those interested in betting college football this season, Action's own Big Bets On Campus now has its own YouTube channel. Subscribe now for free early access to our conference preview episodes, our best bets, along with exclusive content all season long. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chadmllman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike Campadre, my bff professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello, so I'm in.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Hello Chad, Am. I supposed to let you talk about
Williams for about five minutes before I throw some cold
water on it. What do you want to do here?
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Let me teks, you don't need to throw cold water
on it. I had a very urgent phone call today
from my buddy Matt. Everybody knows my buddy Matt. We
have been Bears fans together from the time we were
in the cradle going his games with his family.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
They had season.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Tickets every two days. Part of our conversation is about
the Bears. I'm walking into the office, he calls me.
He goes, do you really think the Bears are not
going to go over their season win total? I'm like,
I have the Bears as a seven win team at best.
The expectations are too high. I don't care what we're
(01:17):
seeing in preseason that is not regular season They're in
a hard division against two very good teams in a
hard conference.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
With really good rosters.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
This is not a team we are going to get
over excited about. I am not investing in the Bears
over season win total. I threw the cold water all
on my own sign.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
That's no fun. But no, that was exciting. Come on, now,
that was amazing him doing Mahomes things.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Oh my god, it's insane.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Bears fans were going crazy. But at the end of
the day, I told you, my biggest fear with him
right now is just the coaching, Like, that's the fear.
And they started the game zero for three, three straight,
three straight three and outs, and it didn't start working
until he started improvising. So yeah, that's that's the fear
right now. Right That's that's the big questions with Williams.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Nobody has sold on Ibra Flues, nobody has sold on
Shane Waldron.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
It felt like.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Not inspired higher when you're investing as much as you
are in Caleb Williams and in this offense. And you
mentioned the play calling. Look, we're not gonna dissect preseason
game play calling, but I will say in the first
series he had against the bills. It was so easy
to say, we've got a third and short. Why didn't
(02:40):
you just run a slant to Keenan Allen And yet
they were trying to have him drop back send receivers
far down field. It made no sense. I am hopeful,
hopeful that they will start to see what everybody else
is seeing.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Make the easy calls.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
It is not that hard to let this guy succeed
because he is so talented. Just make the calls that
are going to put him in a position to succeed.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
For today's pen ultimate installment of our annual NFL Division
Preview series, we are discussing the AFC West and we
are joined by my always antagonist, my always sad he
left us, yet still relieved he left us, Mister Matthew Friedman,
(03:34):
one of the dynamos at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Freedman.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
We had a little cast before the show began, and
it must have felt like home to you.
Speaker 4 (03:44):
Yeah. Absolutely, it's good to be back on the show
with you too. I will say with the Caleb Williams
stuff looks awesome. I totally agree about any I don't know.
I'm not gonna be able to come up with the
right word to describe the coaching staff, but they are
using it's just preseason. They are using more two tight
in sets than anyone else in the league. And one
(04:06):
of the best things about the Bears is that they
have three really good wide receivers. Why would you use
two tight in sets more than anyone else when you
have three really good wide receivers. So we just have
to see what this looks like in the regular season.
But the coaching staff could very well leave something to
be desired.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Matthew Friedman the only man in sports media who could
write a ten thousand word story and you find himself
in a podcast at a loss for words.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
That's sure.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
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coverage anywhere, or just follow the link in this episode description.
All right, let's get into the AFC West. I have
been saying this for every division preview. In nineteen of
the past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone
from worst to first in its division. Last year, the
AFC West was won by the Kansas City Chiefs in
(05:57):
last place, don't forget in last place, Los Angeles Chargers.
So I'm not saying it's going to happen, but boy,
you've got a Justin Herbert who hopefully will be healthy.
A Jim Harbaugh revamped offensive line offensive scheme for the Chargers.
(06:17):
We're going to get into it, for sure. I'm curious
to see what Friedman and Simon have to say if
this is the year the Chiefs don't dominate the AFC West.
Right now, the Chiefs five to one to win the
Super Bowl, minus two thirty to win the division. Eleven
(06:39):
and a half is the season win total. Reminder four
purposes of this, we are looking at strength of schedule.
There's his twelfth easiest. We are looking at offensive line
rank because that is so important overall for a team's
foundational success. Chiefs A line is top five. Right d
line is fourteen, only one of only two teams whose
(07:02):
guards are both righted in the top fifteen according to
Pro Football Focus. That's Joe Toney and Trey Smith. They
were nine to ten. Creed Humphrey was fourth overall. Tackles
are a week spot Donovan Smith, Juwan Taylor. Everyone who
listens to the favorites can remember David Bachtiari just naming
(07:23):
Juwan Taylor as ruining it for everybody for the way
he's jumping out of his stance too early. He had
a league leading nineteen penalties last year.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Freeman. Since you're the guest, we'll start with you. So
what would you little maniacs like to do?
Speaker 5 (07:40):
First?
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Is it the most boring thing ever? Just to say, like,
each year, as long as the Chiefs aren't any longer
than five to one, or like any shorter than five
to one, rather like people should basically just be betting
them to win the Super Bowl. Like Patrick Mahomes anytime
he's longer than like three to one to win MVP,
maybe bet on pack Mahomes to win MVP. I mean,
(08:01):
this is like there was the Montana era, there was
the Tom Brady era, Like we are firmly in the
Mahomes era. Think about how bad that offense was last
year for the Chiefs. Every year of the Andy Reid
era with Patrick Mahomes and that you know, last season
with Alex Smith, the Chiefs have been top six in
scoring except for last year they were number fifteen in
(08:23):
scoring offense and they still won the Super Bowl. Like
last year was the golden opportunity for someone to steal
a Super Bowl in the Mahomes era, and they didn't
do it. This team is going to be better on offense,
a little bit worse on defense, but defense is volatile
year to year. Anyway, the Chiefs could easily repeat, and
(08:44):
I don't think it would be it would shock anyone,
Like five to one. I'm not saying, like go bet it,
but like that's the line to where if it's five
to one, basically just bet it every year and you
probably make money over the next ten years.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Simon, I mean, we're gonna the other team's just division,
but this sadly is a born division.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Chat.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
It's it's business as usual, right. You have the best
coach with the best quarterback in this division, and the
rest of the team is much better than they were
last year. I mean, we all feel so much more
confident in this offense than we did sit at this
point last year, and we thought, you know, Herbert, that team,
the Chargers, they would give a run for their money
last year, and they completely fell apart. Chat. So that
was one of our worst you know, conversations and bets
(09:23):
we made last year, was just believing the Chargers maybe
had a chance just because there was weakness last year.
But now here we are, Chat, there is no weakness.
I already told you this is a team that I've
made a bunch of futures bets on them with you know,
the Eagles and the Lions and Super Bowl futures. It's like,
you know, twenty five thirty five to one. I want
to make those kind of bets because I do think
the Chiefs it's fun to bet on history, and they
(09:44):
have it all right now. But for this team, if
you like doing what I like doing, betting divisional teams together,
who's gonna win their division? This is gonna be everyone's
anchor team. Like everyone's gonna throw this team in the
end of their parlays, right, They're gonna throw them with
the Eagles and maybe the Bills or then the Eagles
and the forty nine ers, Like, this is the team
that you're just gonna put in on all your bets,
just because in what world do they not win it?
(10:05):
Even if he goes down it is Carson Wentz right,
say something horrible happens he goes down in week eight?
Do we still we're gonna talk to these other teams?
Do we still have any faith in these other teams
to get the ten wins? It's hard to see it
right where this team they're just so complete, I mean
even defensively. We even really talked about but Spags is
like the guy, right, We've seen it time and time
again when he needs to be that guy, he really is.
(10:27):
So it's just it's unfair. Not only do they have
the best quarterback, but they have such good coaching on
the offense and defensive side. It's just it's the perfect thing.
So I think Freeman nailed it. It's like we were
going through different errors right now we're in the middle
of the Mahomes era and we all know it, like
we're seeing something so special, so unique, and you just
you can't. You can fight it all you want, but
I wouldn't fight it with my money. It's like, just
(10:48):
just bet them at minus two hundred division, bet them
the over win total. But yeah, it's it's it's sadly
is a boring division this year. Chat, I just can't
go any other way.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Well, it's so interesting, right because they're been a few
years in the past where we have wanted to fade
the Chiefs. We have wanted to fade Mahomes. We didn't
think they had the receivers they needed, they were rebuilding
their offensive line. But Mahomes is so good and elevates
(11:18):
so much of that offense. Then it kind of doesn't
matter what they have between Andy Reid and his creativity
and Mahomes and Kelsey by the way, they put themselves
in a really good position. You said something that I
think is really important defensive line. For defense, I'm going
to focus on defensive line. We don't give Steve Spagnolo
(11:38):
enough credit, right because he is building a Hall of
fame resume as a defensive coordinator. In a way that
this defense always plays better than its ranking late in
games A, late in the season against top tier opponents.
That's when they shine. That's when they are at their best.
(12:00):
The other team has to have something and the Chiefs
find a way to make a stop.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Overall, last year.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
The defense ranked second in the league in scoring, fourth
in total defense, and first in sacrate. And that last
one is largely because of Chris Jones, who is just
so freaking dominant. For that reason alone, you want to
be betting on the Chiefs because of how good they
have gotten defensively.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Simon, Yeah, I totally agree with all that.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
I like when we all agree.
Speaker 4 (12:33):
One thing to add really quickly Simon mentioned here, by
the way, I.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Like when we all agree we're ready to move on
Freeman's got to come in over the top or right. Sure,
he's got something he's going to say that will annoy
us and make us feel differently.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
No, it won't. Just more affirmation. To back up what
Timon said about the win total with the Chiefs, Andy
Reid is nine to two to the over on his
win totals with the Chiefs. Just absolutely unred like one
of the most consistent bets that you can make in
the offseason. Ear in and ear out Andy Reid going
over his win total.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
You know why, I think we can all agree Andy Reid,
when he wins one more super Bowl will go down.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
As the greatest coach in NFL history.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
Honestly, I think that's accurate.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Look at that, Simon, you were laughing at me.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
I need two or three more. I just I can't
get there yet because I just have so much respect
for Bill.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Yeah, but if Andy Reid wins six Super Bowls with
Patrick Mahons, which is not out of the question, there's
no reason to believe that he can't go down. What
he did offensively is as brilliant as what Bill Belichick
did defensively.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
But I see, I disagree just because we always say
it's the offense will always be easier. The league is
built to cater to the offense. That's why the Belichick
thing just blows my mind. Again. People forget that Rams
super Bowl with the Patriots. That was all Belichick. Like,
there's just he had his early years and even in
his later years he still had his fastball. But you know,
(14:04):
it was just so ugly for the last five years. Chad,
I'm on an island here trying to defend the guy,
and I get it. But yeah, it's hard to disagree
with you. If he gets the six Super Bowls, that's
a real conversation.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
Look, Belichick, Belichick is already out there. He's like retired,
he's dating twenty year olds. He's not interested in coming
back to the NFL anymore. Andy Reid, by the time
he retires, he actually might have more wins on his
resume than Belichick does. Yeah, and so if he's the
winning this head coach and he racks up another one
to two Super Bowls with Mahomes, and you add in
(14:34):
the fact that Belichick never had success without Brady. Andy
Reid has had success making quarterbacks better like wherever he's been,
Like Andy Reid at that point would be the greatest
NFL head coach.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Listen, you say Bill Belichick had that win against the Rams.
I say Andy Reid had mini mouse with mustard or
whatever that play was called. You know, at the end
of the game. All right, our next up. This is
where it gets interesting. LA Chargers.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
According to the.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Strength of schedule, which is the Vegas version of strength
of schedule, which is adding up the win totals projected
win totals according to book makers that the Chargers will face,
they have the second easiest schedule AT's win the super
Bowl forty five to one odds to win the Division
(15:29):
three twenty season win total eight and a half. So, like,
this is a middling team right now. We're not gonna
sugarcoat it. Their offensive line middle of the packet twelfth.
Everyone likes for Sean Slater, everyone's excited about joe Alt,
but we don't really know a lot about this offensive line.
(15:50):
Their d line rank has really drops twenty second. According
to PFF. You got Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack who
are older and in too often for this unit to
be reliable. Friedman, we had Bill Barnwell on don't be offended.
He came on before you did. He said he loved
this team for next year. I do think we're making
(16:12):
a little bit of mistake if we discount this team
for this season as an over win total team. And
I can make an upside argument, but I want to
hear your reaction to what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (16:24):
All right, Chad, I don't know if you remember last
year I came on, we talked about the NFC West, Yes,
and Simon was talking about the Rams and how you
could bet them maybe to win the division. I said,
you should bet them to win the super Bowl. All right,
I'm gonna say the same stupid thing right now about
the Chargers. I love them forty five to one to
(16:44):
win the Super Bowl. Have you guys ever heard of
Peyton Manning? That guy knows Baul. I'm just gonna say
he knows football. He thinks Justin Herbert is a top
five NFL quarterback. I think the same thing. And I
think Jim Harbaugh coming in based on what he did
years ago with the forty nine Ers, based on what
he did in Michigan, I think he comes in right
now and is probably a top eight NFL head coach,
(17:07):
maybe top five.
Speaker 5 (17:09):
Just the way it feels. I mean, it feels like
New Year's Day, you know, it feels like being born,
feels like coming out of the womb. You know, it's
like you're in there, it's comfortable and it's safe, and
now you're out. You're born, bright, chaos, people looking at you,
people talking at you, and just feels good to have
it happen.
Speaker 4 (17:28):
There are very few teams that have that type of
combination of quarterback and head coach who are both in
the top eight at their respective positions. Greg Roman has
had success. You maybe don't like what he's done long term,
but he's had success quickly turning around offenses and making
(17:49):
them better. Harbaugh has had success with Roman in without Roman. Now, Chad,
you mentioned Bosa Khalil Mack. Both know a little bit injured,
a little bit older. But if they can stay healthy,
and if that defense can play just a little bit better,
if it can play up to the talent level that
it has there with Derwin James Sante, Samuel Junior in
the secondary, like that defense could be average, and if
(18:11):
you have a really efficient and well managed offense with
an average defense like that is enough to get a
team into the playoffs, especially when they're playing two teams
are going to talk about later, the Broncos and the Raiders.
And I think it's worth noting that in the Justin
Herbert timeframe with the Chargers, they have always played the
(18:33):
Chiefs tight. They are five and two against the spread
with Herbert at quarterback against the Chiefs. And so if
they can sweep the bottom feeders in their division, if
they can still one win against the Chiefs, go five
to one in division. You mentioned they have a really
easy schedule outside of division. This could actually be a
(18:55):
team that I'm not gonna say they're going to win
the division, but like they could be, right they are,
and a really tough out in the playoffs, and a
hardball team that is feeling itself once it gets into
the playoffs. That feels like a really dangerous team. So
forty five to one, like, I'll just say it's not
going to happen. The Chargers are not going to win
the super Bowl. But this line is too long. It
(19:17):
shouldn't be forty five to one, it should be thirty
to one.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I don't disagree with that about that being too long.
I don't mind the idea of taking a flyer on
the Chargers. I do like their over Simon first my bubble.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
There's nothing I love more Chadan, two guys loving the
Chargers in August when Herbert just gotta have a walking
boot two days ago. I mean, this is what I
live for this team. I've taken a large position on
them to be the worst in this division. Actually, it's
it's just a classic case. Wow, Hardball's gonna come in,
and I just think he's gonna burn it all down.
I think he knows it's a team filled with losers,
bad draft picks, and he's gonna revet in his own identity.
(19:57):
So it's like Joe All is the first step of that.
That guy fits his personality perfect. I think he's gonna
run the ball so much more than they've ever run
in the past. Right, He's gonna take the ball out
of Herbert's hands, which sounds stupid, but my mentality is
he needs to build this kid back up. This kid's
never been properly coached in his entire career. I mean,
you just go through it. Even when Kellen Moore was there,
he didn't trust Kellen Moore. He's still tried to play
(20:19):
hero ball like Herbert couldn't help but try to throw
the ball downfield, which I had no problem with because
he had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that's totally gone.
Like Joshua Palmer, who I love is a sleeper in
fantasy football, that's gonna be his safety valley all season.
These other guys, I just don't like Lad McConkie all
these other guys. I just don't have faith in these
outside receivers where we've had that in the past.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Chat.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
So to me, this team it's gonna be bad, especially
if Herbert's already banged up head end of the season,
Like it's just already starting off in a bad foot.
Did this guy need a training camp with this new
offense He's missed two and a half weeks, Like that's
a big deal. So to me, it's already starting off wrong.
And I get why people are falling in love with
the idea of the future, because I'm with Bill, like
(21:00):
next year, barn Wall is so right, like this is
the team next year. I'd be a buyer on right
because I do think he's gonna get rid of a
lot of these old guys that are on this team
with bad contracts and will kind of be a new
team next year. Well this year, it just feels like
they're paying for the couple past years, like, you know,
messing up in the draft, overpaying guys a shit overpaid.
So to me, I get where you guys are coming from.
There's so much to be up excited about in the
(21:21):
future of this team. I just think it's a year earlier, right,
Like the other teams to me are further out along
in this division than they are the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
We're going to get to that, but the Broncos are
further along the Raiders. The Gardner minshew, all right, we're
going to get to it. We're going to get to it,
and we've got a special graphic to prove it that.
Maybe with the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
You're right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
I actually went back and looked at Harbaugh as a
coach in his first year with his new teams not
always great. Like we've got a vision of Harbaugh coming
in and he is immediately turning a team around. And
I think he does have an aura and sort of
a mysticism about him that we believe every player buys in.
(22:05):
He is so enthusiastic, he knows football, He's a football guy.
What he has done, whether it was San Diego or Stanford,
or the Niners or Michigan, there's a true belief that
he's a guy who can make people elevate their play
(22:25):
through scheme and through support and through positioning, that they're
automatically going to be better. And I think that's what
a lot of people are banking on is sort of
the mythology of Jim Harbaugh. They have tried to improve
their offensive line, they have brought in Greg Roman. They
(22:47):
are favored in ten games this year. A team that
came in last in the AFC West is favored in
ten different games this year. That's how easy their schedule is.
So you kind of have to believe that this is
a team of at least decent quality with a top
five quarterback. And I think we all agree he is
a good quarterback. We're not denying that.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
You gotta believe.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
I think he's an inconsistent quarterback that's never won a
playoff game.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Well, Matthew Freeman's Peyton Manning disagrees with.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
You, and they probably have the same agent. I mean,
it was just an Outlandis comment. It's just I didn't
want to go into it. Because I was just like,
come on, Peyton, you're better than this. But no, I again,
this is what people love, the idea of Herbert rather
than the results of Herbert. And that's the toughest thing
because it's like, oh, just throw it out there. Wins
are not a QB stat all right, No one's saying
(23:38):
it is. But it's like in his draft alone, Joe
Burrow has done something, Jalen Hurts has done something right.
Jordan Love in one year has done more than we've
seen in six years of Herbert being a starter. So
it's just it's just tough for me to get there.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Brother Bridman, I can't believe he's coming after you like that.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
Whatever, Chad, I'm I mean, it pains me to say this.
I am aligned with you on this and the wind
totals specifically.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Is I just want to be Freeman. You know you
don't want to be there.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
I'll be there. Nine point seven is where I have
this projected. Wow, you know eight and a half is
the total there. So this is one of the few
wind totals that I don't mind betting the over on.
I think normally win totals that's where I want to
be taking unders, and if I like a team, I
want to be betting on them to win the Super Bowl,
win Division, things like that. But there's such a large
discrepancy here between where this line is and where I
(24:30):
have my projection that I don't mind betting this in
the wind total market as well.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
I've changed my mind. I'm all over the under. I'm
anti I'm anti Herbert on this right now, Let's get
to the to the Las Vegas Raiders here, okay, because
they're fascinating to me and like it's a team where.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
They sided.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Gardner Minshew is going to be their starting quarterback, and
I'm going to get to the strength to schedule and
all that kind of stuff, but we that is breaking
news and we're dedicated to the news here. So Friedman,
give me your take on Gardner Minshew as the starting
quarterback over Aiden O'Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
I mean, I would say it almost doesn't matter. It
had to be Gardner Minshew, but this is the worst
quarterback duo in the league, and so it almost didn't
matter who was the starting quarterback. I think this is
going to be a really uninspiring offense, and I absolutely
love the under of six and a half on the
(25:45):
win total, and I will say, you know, you know,
look around at different books for this, but six and
a half, I think that number should be like five
and a half. Really, I think this is going to
be such a bad team. But I will see. I
think the offense is going to be funneled pretty exclusively
through DeVante Adams, and so if you look at the
(26:07):
prop market for him, one thousand point five is his
prop number, I think that's too low, even though he's
you know, aging going to be thirty two this year.
I think he gets a ton of targets and goes
over that number for you know, like the fifth time
in the past five years, and then Zamir White over
seven hundred seventy five point five rushing yards. I think
(26:27):
he smashes that because I think it's going to be
an offense that whether they're throwing, it's DeVante Adams and
then they're running a lot and Zamir White gets a
lot of that action. Because I do not believe in
Alexander Madison.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Alexander Madison, I love that name.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
The strength to schedule for this team, by the way,
ninth Hardest plays to the idea that maybe you need
to look at their under with Gardner Minshew as quarterback.
I do think look like last year, there's so much
hype about Gardner Minshew and what he did with the Colts.
(27:05):
Gardner Minshew is more like the guy who played with
the Jaguars inconsistently to me than he is the guy
who was a savior for the Colts last year, playing
in Shane Steichen's offense, who put him in so many
positions to succeed. Simon, you clearly loved the Raiders a
(27:31):
second ago when I brought up Gardner Minshew, like I said,
strength to schedule ninth artist nineteen is their offensive line
rank top ten defensive line largely because of Max Crosby,
So it's about Gardner Minshew. Do they get over six
and a half with Gardner Minshew?
Speaker 4 (27:52):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:52):
I love this team. That's some one of my favorite
sleeper teams of the year, and it's just simply because
people have so much doubt with this team where they're
not looking at they're only real weak to me on
this team is their quarnerback position. It's like the Colts.
The Colts secondary chad is absolutely terrible, but we still
bet their upside. I still have the same feeling here
with this Raiders team. It's like, yeah, their secondary it's
an issue that to me is a big issue. But
(28:13):
this team, there's so much many people are going to
credit for. I know Chad's not a huge fan of Minshew.
I mean, I'll never forget this summer. We're doing a
show and I said that if you sent Minshew thirty
five years back in the time and he played on
the Dallas Cowboys, he too could win six Pro Bowls
and make zero All Pros. And Chad was disgusted in that.
He's like, no, only Troy Aikman can make six Pro
(28:33):
Bowls and zero All Pros behind the best team and
of all the nineties. So I just don't think you
understand how that Minshew's not as bad as pop perceived.
Like he's been on pace with guys like Trevor Lawrence
and his career stat numbers, Like he's just as good
as these guys who people build up. And it's just
because it's Minshew, Like I get where they're coming from.
Like you look at this guy on tape and he
doesn't look like an NFL starting quarterback. He's small, he's
(28:55):
quirky sometimes makes horrible reads. But lastually with the Colts,
a lot of this stuff wasn't his fault. I mean,
even going back to that last game, but they almost
speed Houston. He was one completion away on a fourth
down from them being in the scoring position to be Houston. Right,
he didn't make that running back drop that ball. That
was a good pass. It was a running back that
did drop it. So it's like, Minshew, yes, is he inconsistent?
I totally agree with that. But what you're failing to
(29:16):
see on this offense is this is going to be
an old school, twelve personnel offense with arguably one of
the most talented tight ends we've ever seen in the
history of football coming to the league in Brock Bowers. Like,
people don't understand when Nick Saban's talking about you, saying
he did there was only two players he feared playing
last year. One was Neighbors, who I already told Youoh,
I'm obsessed with Neighbors. The next was Bowers, Like, he
(29:38):
can't believe how incredibly talented this kid is. And you
can run him in every way. You're gonna run him
at the fullback, you can split him out a tight end,
you can split him out at wide receiver, like this
kid is literally the future of the league his type
of playing style, like him and Sam Laporta. So to me,
they're already hitting on the nail on the head like
they're running twelve personnel. They're using brock Bowers in crazy positions.
I'm not even talking about Myers, the guy they took
(29:59):
last year, who who's another great tight end. And then
he mixed in the fact that the wide receiver position
is pretty strong. Their offensive line is better than people perceive.
I love this offense. Now defensively, check I can't believen
bring this up. They have Christian Wilkins, the best, one
of the best D tackles all football, came from Miami
and joined this team. Max Crosby plus seven hundred to
win Defensive Player of the Year. I love that bet.
(30:19):
Like I'm I am very very highvily invested in him
being Defensive Player of the Year just because he's never
had this before. He's never had a guy getting doubles
in the middle. Like, it's going to be insane watching
this D line now with that, with that kind of setup,
So I get the hesitation, like no one wants to
say they're putting, you know, five figures on Minshew and
the Raiders over win total. But I am like, I
(30:41):
love this team, and I think Pierce's Tomlin two point zero.
He's a motivated or of men. Like last year that
team should have fell apart, and he pulled them all
together and had some incredible wins down the stretch, and
I think that carries over this season. So this is
a team that, yeah, I think their second best in
this division right now, and I think Minshew is heavily,
heavily underrated by public perception. And there's that stat I
(31:03):
was looking for. Look at that graphic, Chad.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Let's all right, so we're getting super fancy in our
show here today. Gardner Minshew in his years as a
starting quarterback Versus Trevor Lawrence in his years as a
starting quarterback Friedman Gardner Minshew six point nine two yards
per attempt, Trevor Lawrence six point seventy three yards. Touchdowns,
(31:29):
touch on percentage four point two percent for Gardner Minshew,
three point three percent for Trevor Lawrence. QBR eighty nine
point three for Gardner Minshew, eighty five for Trevor Lawrence.
Interception percentage one point seven percent for Gardner Minshew, two
(31:49):
point two percent for Trevor Lawrence. Didn't Trevor Lawrence just
get like one hundred and fifty MILI guaranteed.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
I think you got two hundred million, brother.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
For basically mid as the kids say, mid stats and
the promise of potential because he's got pretty great hair
and a good arm and had one epic comeback against
the guy Simon Hunter doesn't even think is a very
good quarterback in Justin Herbert. And this guy's got a
(32:19):
bag because Doug Peterson is his coach, and Gardner Minshew
is bouncing around as a journeyman and he's got the
better stats as a starter than Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Come on, Freeman, Yeah, what you're not saying is that
Trevor Lawrence, like for a third of his career stats
has the stink of Urban Meyer all over him.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
That's not counting Urban Meyers. Year we threw that out,
you did, Yeah the last years? Look at that.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Oh so now I've now I've been dunked on. But
also twenty twenty three, Trevor Lawrence was injured, Like, I
think it's worth taking that into account. But yeah, Trevor
Lawrence has disappointed. That doesn't mean that Gardner Minshew is
the answer for the Raiders. Like part of this is
I have no faith in Luke Getzi as the offensive coordinator.
(33:08):
Like to what Simon said, they are going to think
about this. They are going to run a very antiquated
two tight end system. And even if you think that
brock Bauers is the future of the league, talking about, oh,
this guy so versatile, we can line him up at
full back, talking about that is almost the sign of like,
wait a minute, this offense could be in big trouble.
(33:30):
If you're thinking of two tight ends as the solution
to a run heavy offense quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew like this,
this could be a massive disaster. If they win games,
they barely win games, and if they lose games, they
get absolutely boat raced with that kind of offense that
they have. And I know in the second half of
(33:51):
the season their defense looked a lot better, but like
they were also playing some pretty subpar quarterbacks for a
lot of that stretch, So I don't want to put
too much weight on like what could have been just
kind of like randomness in the second half of the season.
This is a bad team, Simon, a very bad team.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
I guess Patrick Mahomes is just some random quarterback that
they beat on Christmas Day. That's the one game that's
a big game, though it sparked demand to win another
Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Well, look, this is where it gets interesting, right, Like
is it one game that was an anomaly? Is it
the one game that proves they of what they can
be with Antonio Pierce as coach.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
I did not look freeman.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
I Chad hated this team two months ago. This is
a lot of work for me to try to spin
them here.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
I did not know Simon was going to come this
strong on the Raiders. This was the first we've talked
about it. I'm shocked to get this feedback from him
right now. I'm shocked to hear these five figures and.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
You see, we're you're going to do week one chat.
It's about to get real ross, real quick. Plus three
against the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Well, look, if they're on the road, I can take that.
Or actually, if they're if they're the home dog.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
No, no, they're on the road. Plus three, all right,
Well I'll talk.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
I feel like we're gonna find five games we life
better than that.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Game the Freedman. He makes a convincing case.
Speaker 4 (35:24):
Does he don't? I don't think so. His case is, oh,
this two tight end offense is going to be awesome
based on what we might see out of a rookie
tight end that that.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Never works, Simon.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
He makes a case I'm bringing up because you never
even mentioned him. You're just talking about Devanta Adams. It's like, dude,
you're forgetting about Brock Bowers here first round pick. I
just I know you don't watch a lot of college football,
bro when this dude's that guy.
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Look, look, look, I I know about Brock Bowers.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I hope he makes me a little nervous.
Speaker 4 (35:54):
I didn't mention him because I don't think his prop
number is especially betible. But I did think that DeVante
Adam has a battable prop number.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
That's fair.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
Can I interest anybody in the Chargers over eight and
a half?
Speaker 4 (36:06):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (36:08):
Take the ultimated line under six and a half. Chargers
people have fun with it.
Speaker 1 (36:12):
Oh my god, Now it's just Freeman. Now it just
feels like the personal again cooking. All right, So Simon
loves the Raiders. Honest to god, this is the first
I've heard you have this stronger opinion on the Raiders,
and it feels like one of the stronger opinions you've
had for any of the division previews that we've done.
(36:32):
So it makes me want to ask you right now,
in your sort of pantheon of futures bets season win
totals bets, where do the Raiders stand in terms of
the amount of money put down versus the other bets?
Speaker 3 (36:48):
I mean, I have I definitely have three times the
amount on the Chiefs to win this division. Like that's
definitely my biggest bet. I mean, that's just the safest.
I got no issue locking up my money for seven
months on the chief Yefs. It's that's a lot of
harder pill to swallow when you're talking the Raiders. And
like we said, Minshew, right, even though I'm getting the
guys back here, it's like everything Freeman said is true. Man,
(37:08):
the wheels could fall off this by week seven and
I look like an idiot, But I just love the
way this teams set up and how they're just being
doubted by everybody except the guys in Vegas. Like we
talked months ago, I told you don't take this under
because you were like talking about ticking their underwin told
and I said, listen, all the guys in Vegas I'm
talking to they love this team as a sleeper team.
And the more I've looked into, the more I've researched it,
it works out. It's like this team does have really
(37:31):
good pieces to their defense is not as bad as
people perceive them to be, even though I do agree
that their secondary does of question marks. But yeah, chat
this team and the next team were talking about. These
are two teams that unfortunately that the word is out
on Denver. But a month ago when I was betting
them at the sportsbook, no one was going there betting
the Denver team. Same with the Vegas team. So these
are two teams that definitely are professional against public perception.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
Gotta say, gotta say, what a surprise that the guys
in Vegas like the team in Vegas. I never would
have anticipated that.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
These are like seven year old men. You think they
give a fuck about the Raiders in Vegas. They don't
care about that.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
Right, It is in the atmosphere. And one thing I
will say, like, okay, is it possible to say anything
about kind of like the market in general. I know
that there's one specific sports book that you know is
attached to this show. But I'll just say generally, there
is the big domestic sports books. There are some that
(38:27):
are not in Nevada. There's one that is the one
that is in Nevada has a lot of liability that
is built up on the Raiders. The other domestic books
that aren't in Nevada aren't taking nearly as much Raiders money.
Like that is kind of the sign people in Vegas
are betting on Vegas.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Yeah, those people aren't. I mean, not all the people
live in Vegas, professionals that you know that right.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
Well, yes, but what I'm saying is like saying the
guys in Vegas are betting on Vegas isn't really.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
The guys in Cleveland. Like I'm just talking about pros bro.
I'm not talking about the actual guys in Vegas. It's
just this thing we say it here. Don't don't look
too into it.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Okay, it's not a literal interpretation. It's wise guys, the
guys in Vagae.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
Well then you could just say, sharps. If you are
saying the guys in Vegas, that could easily be read
as a literal statement, because that's what you're saying. Most
people say sharps.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
Not I refuse to say that word.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
All right, I do want to talk about the Broncos,
because look, this team, I think we all believe they
were kind of a shit show at the end of
last year. Then they drafted bow Knicks, who you could
telegraph that Sean Payton loved this guy and that he
was going to be the one of all the quarterbacks
getting drafted. It has been a constant conversation. Bo Nicks
(39:49):
has performed very well in the preseason. People have been surprised. Again,
it's preseason. We're not getting too hyped up about bow Knicks.
Three hundred to one to win the Super Bowl, eighteen
to one to win the division. That is double the
odds of the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
At nine to one.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Five and a half is the season win total. All right, Simon,
we know how you feel about the Raiders. You've already
teased that there is some interest in buying into the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Make your case.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Make your case, and Freeman, I hope you're fucking taking
notes because I know you're gonna want to go the
other way.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
Yeah, it's just the fact that you could have got
him a twenty to one Bone Mix. You know what
were that three weeks ago to be offensive rookie of
the year. It sucks that that's gone now check because
it's the secret tower, right And I looked at I
didn't give it on the show. I bet him and
I bet JJ, which you know, even if I didn't
believe JJ was gonna be the best player, the best rookie,
the value was just too long, Like it was just
(40:52):
too much respect given to the top two guys, and
Williams and Daniels got luck. I didn't give out JJ
on the show because obviously he got hurt, and that's
just that's a dead bet. Now the flip side bon Knicks,
if you still want to bet it, I don't hate it,
but the value is obviously gone at this point. Like
the hype Chad just said it, it's just too much.
People are going crazy because you want what nine for
ten with that passing touchdown in a preseason game, which
(41:14):
again he looked good, but it's like, don't overreact too
much to it. It's it is vanilla. And if you
know anything about bone Knicks, he can look incredible for
a quarter and then completely throw three picks in the
next quarter. Like that is the boon Nicks experience, Like
that's just always been his graft about him. It's just
an inconsistent guy. The hope is the reason I'm positive
(41:34):
this team in betting this over is because he's with
to me, one of the smartest offensive minds in all
football in Sean Payton. And it's like, if he just
listens to Sean Payton, right, he does not go out
and do crazy bon Knicks thing. He just stays within
the offense, follows his coach every week, coaching him up
on what to do play by play. There is a
world here where this team get the six seven wins,
like five and a half their win total. It feels right,
(41:56):
But I like the over because I just have him
at six wins. So to me, this is a team
that I don't think defensively and offensive they'll be as
bad as they were last year because it felt like
that team had so much drama chad behind the scenes.
They kind of gave up right at one point where
like we know they kind of have players, right, they
aren't that team that lost by seventy points to Miami, Right,
there is a middle of their ground.
Speaker 4 (42:17):
So to me, bow.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Knicks it's not something I'm heavily invested in, Like I'm
more invested in the Raiders in this Chiefs team, but
it's a team that I liked. They're over because I
just think Champagne is such a good coach. It's like,
I just can't see another season of them only getting
five or four wins. Like it's just there's too many
questions there that I'm not giving them out the you know,
shock the world to be the second this division with
bon Nicks. But it's like, I do believe offensively, defensively,
(42:41):
they'll be improved when they were last year, and last
year they were what a three four win team, So
it's like, you know, not shocking to think they can
get two more wins after such a disaster year last year.
Speaker 1 (42:49):
Eighth hardest strength of schedule A Lion is fifteenth. Not
really anything to say about it, nah, thirty first according
to Pro Football Focused the Best Edition, John Franklin, Myers
from the New York Jets goes from being expendable with
(43:13):
the Jets to being the best defensive lineman with the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (43:19):
Yeah it's not pretty, Friedman, talk to me.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
I have this projected at five point seven so like
right in line with the win total market of five
and a half. But to echo Simon's point, Nicks is
really intriguing. I don't think he has a chance to
win Offensive Rookie of the Year if the Broncos are
in that five and a half win range. But the
thing is, I'm assuming he's going to start in week one,
(43:46):
and that makes him, I think, very live to lead
all of the rookies in passing yardage, and there are
some props that you can bet in that, and he's
not the leader in that market, like he trails Williams
and and Jayden Daniels by a pretty healthy margin in
that market. So I would be looking to bet him
(44:06):
in that regard because I think if he's starting week
one in terms of his passing production, because he has
a Simon said, like one of the best offensive minds
guiding him, in Sean Payton, he could lead all of
the rookies and passing yards especially because this defense is
not good. They do have a hard strength of schedule
and so they might need to throw the rock a
(44:27):
decent amount, and so I could see bo Nicks having
a pretty good year statistically even if this offense, you know,
doesn't really blow up, and even if this team in
general still kind of disappoints and is you know, on
this subpar side.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
I like that idea.
Speaker 3 (44:46):
That's fat, that's a really yeah, that's more fun.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
That's break that down right, and it makes sense, right,
Like the Bears could be competitive, and so it's very
possible they do want to run the ball a little
bit more and be more conservative, especially with their coaching staff.
Speaker 2 (45:05):
Sean Payton will let it rip.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
And if he feels like he has a guy who
can execute his offense, even if it's dink and dunk,
ten yard slants, screens, things that Drew Brees was so
good at that, he feels like he might be able
to get the next generation of out of bo Nicks.
He's going to he he's a high risk, you know,
play caller. So that's a really good idea.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Yeah, five to one. That's where I put it in
the bet tracker at Fantasy Life. It's still available at
plus four fifty and I still like it at that number.
Speaker 1 (45:38):
Good, all right, Freeman, I feel like I know where
Simon stands on his best bets for this division. Chiefs
five to one win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (45:51):
Chiefs. You know, minus whatever to win the division.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
I think it's up to like two thirty.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Yeah, it's like my yeah, minus two thirty to win
the division.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 1 (46:05):
Inappropriate amount on the Raiders over six and a half
and probably a little bit touch less on the Chargers
under eight and a half. Give me your favorite AFC
West bet.
Speaker 4 (46:19):
So the favorite is forty five to one Chargers to
win the Super Bowl. I know it's ridiculous, not going
to happen, it's still my favorite. And I will say, like,
if I had to have like ancillary favorite bets, I
will be with Simon five to one on the Chiefs
to win the Super Bowl. I like that one, and
then I would just kind of put this earmark of
(46:41):
anytime this season. The Chiefs are underdogs. If it happens,
just bet them. I don't need any other information on that, Like,
just bet them in that situation if.
Speaker 3 (46:51):
You want to bet early lines. They are one game
underdog against the forty nine Ers on the road. I believe.
So you could if you want to take up a
position right now, you can. I mean, obviously you can't
get that much down, but still, if you want to
get it now, Freeman's right, you can get them as
a dog all right.
Speaker 1 (47:09):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five BET three six five.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
Dozen two ordinary.
Speaker 1 (47:14):
That's why you get more boosts with them than with
anyone else. Every day they pro out the odds on
hundreds of bats to give you a chance to win more.
Bet three sixty five boost specific markets your winnings and
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Speaker 2 (47:25):
And they don't stop there.
Speaker 1 (47:27):
Keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds
with the incredible super boosts.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Check out the boost and see why it's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (47:33):
A Bet three six five must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and olderre in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. I
want to thank our good friend to Nemesis Matthew Friedman
(47:56):
from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life coming on the show today.
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Thursday
at eleven am Eastern to talk NFC West, the final
of our division previews. In our series previewing every division,
(48:16):
download us some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want,
feedback his gift until next time.
Speaker 2 (48:24):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help us available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chadmllman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
Mike Campadre, my bff professional better Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Hello, so I'm in.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Hello Chad, Am. I supposed to let you talk about
Williams for about five minutes before I throw some cold
water on it. What do you want to do here?
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Let me teks, you don't need to throw cold water
on it. I had a very urgent phone call today
from my buddy Matt. Everybody knows my buddy Matt. We
have been Bears fans together from the time we were
in the cradle going his games with his family.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
They had season.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Tickets every two days. Part of our conversation is about
the Bears. I'm walking into the office, he calls me.
He goes, do you really think the Bears are not
going to go over their season win total? I'm like,
I have the Bears as a seven win team at best.
The expectations are too high. I don't care what we're
(01:17):
seeing in preseason that is not regular season They're in
a hard division against two very good teams in a
hard conference.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
With really good rosters.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
This is not a team we are going to get
over excited about. I am not investing in the Bears
over season win total. I threw the cold water all
on my own sign.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
That's no fun. But no, that was exciting. Come on, now,
that was amazing him doing Mahomes things.
Speaker 2 (01:45):
Oh my god, it's insane.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Bears fans were going crazy. But at the end of
the day, I told you, my biggest fear with him
right now is just the coaching, Like, that's the fear.
And they started the game zero for three, three straight,
three straight three and outs, and it didn't start working
until he started improvising. So yeah, that's that's the fear
right now. Right That's that's the big questions with Williams.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Nobody has sold on Ibra Flues, nobody has sold on
Shane Waldron.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
It felt like.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Not inspired higher when you're investing as much as you
are in Caleb Williams and in this offense. And you
mentioned the play calling. Look, we're not gonna dissect preseason
game play calling, but I will say in the first
series he had against the bills. It was so easy
to say, we've got a third and short. Why didn't
(02:40):
you just run a slant to Keenan Allen And yet
they were trying to have him drop back send receivers
far down field. It made no sense. I am hopeful,
hopeful that they will start to see what everybody else
is seeing.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Make the easy calls.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
It is not that hard to let this guy succeed
because he is so talented. Just make the calls that
are going to put him in a position to succeed.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Simon.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
For today's pen ultimate installment of our annual NFL Division
Preview series, we are discussing the AFC West and we
are joined by my always antagonist, my always sad he
left us, yet still relieved he left us, Mister Matthew Friedman,
(03:34):
one of the dynamos at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Freedman.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
We had a little cast before the show began, and
it must have felt like home to you.
Speaker 4 (03:44):
Yeah. Absolutely, it's good to be back on the show
with you too. I will say with the Caleb Williams
stuff looks awesome. I totally agree about any I don't know.
I'm not gonna be able to come up with the
right word to describe the coaching staff, but they are
using it's just preseason. They are using more two tight
in sets than anyone else in the league. And one
(04:06):
of the best things about the Bears is that they
have three really good wide receivers. Why would you use
two tight in sets more than anyone else when you
have three really good wide receivers. So we just have
to see what this looks like in the regular season.
But the coaching staff could very well leave something to
be desired.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
Matthew Friedman the only man in sports media who could
write a ten thousand word story and you find himself
in a podcast at a loss for words.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
That's sure.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
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All right, let's get into the AFC West. I have
been saying this for every division preview. In nineteen of
the past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone
from worst to first in its division. Last year, the
AFC West was won by the Kansas City Chiefs in
(05:57):
last place, don't forget in last place, Los Angeles Chargers.
So I'm not saying it's going to happen, but boy,
you've got a Justin Herbert who hopefully will be healthy.
A Jim Harbaugh revamped offensive line offensive scheme for the Chargers.
(06:17):
We're going to get into it, for sure. I'm curious
to see what Friedman and Simon have to say if
this is the year the Chiefs don't dominate the AFC West.
Right now, the Chiefs five to one to win the
Super Bowl, minus two thirty to win the division. Eleven
(06:39):
and a half is the season win total. Reminder four
purposes of this, we are looking at strength of schedule.
There's his twelfth easiest. We are looking at offensive line
rank because that is so important overall for a team's
foundational success. Chiefs A line is top five. Right d
line is fourteen, only one of only two teams whose
(07:02):
guards are both righted in the top fifteen according to
Pro Football Focus. That's Joe Toney and Trey Smith. They
were nine to ten. Creed Humphrey was fourth overall. Tackles
are a week spot Donovan Smith, Juwan Taylor. Everyone who
listens to the favorites can remember David Bachtiari just naming
(07:23):
Juwan Taylor as ruining it for everybody for the way
he's jumping out of his stance too early. He had
a league leading nineteen penalties last year.
Speaker 2 (07:32):
Freeman. Since you're the guest, we'll start with you. So
what would you little maniacs like to do?
Speaker 5 (07:40):
First?
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Is it the most boring thing ever? Just to say, like,
each year, as long as the Chiefs aren't any longer
than five to one, or like any shorter than five
to one, rather like people should basically just be betting
them to win the Super Bowl. Like Patrick Mahomes anytime
he's longer than like three to one to win MVP,
maybe bet on pack Mahomes to win MVP. I mean,
(08:01):
this is like there was the Montana era, there was
the Tom Brady era, Like we are firmly in the
Mahomes era. Think about how bad that offense was last
year for the Chiefs. Every year of the Andy Reid
era with Patrick Mahomes and that you know, last season
with Alex Smith, the Chiefs have been top six in
scoring except for last year they were number fifteen in
(08:23):
scoring offense and they still won the Super Bowl. Like
last year was the golden opportunity for someone to steal
a Super Bowl in the Mahomes era, and they didn't
do it. This team is going to be better on offense,
a little bit worse on defense, but defense is volatile
year to year. Anyway, the Chiefs could easily repeat, and
(08:44):
I don't think it would be it would shock anyone,
Like five to one. I'm not saying, like go bet it,
but like that's the line to where if it's five
to one, basically just bet it every year and you
probably make money over the next ten years.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Simon, I mean, we're gonna the other team's just division,
but this sadly is a born division.
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Chat.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
It's it's business as usual, right. You have the best
coach with the best quarterback in this division, and the
rest of the team is much better than they were
last year. I mean, we all feel so much more
confident in this offense than we did sit at this
point last year, and we thought, you know, Herbert, that team,
the Chargers, they would give a run for their money
last year, and they completely fell apart. Chat. So that
was one of our worst you know, conversations and bets
(09:23):
we made last year, was just believing the Chargers maybe
had a chance just because there was weakness last year.
But now here we are, Chat, there is no weakness.
I already told you this is a team that I've
made a bunch of futures bets on them with you know,
the Eagles and the Lions and Super Bowl futures. It's like,
you know, twenty five thirty five to one. I want
to make those kind of bets because I do think
the Chiefs it's fun to bet on history, and they
(09:44):
have it all right now. But for this team, if
you like doing what I like doing, betting divisional teams together,
who's gonna win their division? This is gonna be everyone's
anchor team. Like everyone's gonna throw this team in the
end of their parlays, right, They're gonna throw them with
the Eagles and maybe the Bills or then the Eagles
and the forty nine ers, Like, this is the team
that you're just gonna put in on all your bets,
just because in what world do they not win it?
(10:05):
Even if he goes down it is Carson Wentz right,
say something horrible happens he goes down in week eight?
Do we still we're gonna talk to these other teams?
Do we still have any faith in these other teams
to get the ten wins? It's hard to see it
right where this team they're just so complete, I mean
even defensively. We even really talked about but Spags is
like the guy, right, We've seen it time and time
again when he needs to be that guy, he really is.
(10:27):
So it's just it's unfair. Not only do they have
the best quarterback, but they have such good coaching on
the offense and defensive side. It's just it's the perfect thing.
So I think Freeman nailed it. It's like we were
going through different errors right now we're in the middle
of the Mahomes era and we all know it, like
we're seeing something so special, so unique, and you just
you can't. You can fight it all you want, but
I wouldn't fight it with my money. It's like, just
(10:48):
just bet them at minus two hundred division, bet them
the over win total. But yeah, it's it's it's sadly
is a boring division this year. Chat, I just can't
go any other way.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Well, it's so interesting, right because they're been a few
years in the past where we have wanted to fade
the Chiefs. We have wanted to fade Mahomes. We didn't
think they had the receivers they needed, they were rebuilding
their offensive line. But Mahomes is so good and elevates
(11:18):
so much of that offense. Then it kind of doesn't
matter what they have between Andy Reid and his creativity
and Mahomes and Kelsey by the way, they put themselves
in a really good position. You said something that I
think is really important defensive line. For defense, I'm going
to focus on defensive line. We don't give Steve Spagnolo
(11:38):
enough credit, right because he is building a Hall of
fame resume as a defensive coordinator. In a way that
this defense always plays better than its ranking late in
games A, late in the season against top tier opponents.
That's when they shine. That's when they are at their best.
(12:00):
The other team has to have something and the Chiefs
find a way to make a stop.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Overall, last year.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
The defense ranked second in the league in scoring, fourth
in total defense, and first in sacrate. And that last
one is largely because of Chris Jones, who is just
so freaking dominant. For that reason alone, you want to
be betting on the Chiefs because of how good they
have gotten defensively.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Simon, Yeah, I totally agree with all that.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
I like when we all agree.
Speaker 4 (12:33):
One thing to add really quickly Simon mentioned here, by
the way, I.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Like when we all agree we're ready to move on
Freeman's got to come in over the top or right. Sure,
he's got something he's going to say that will annoy
us and make us feel differently.
Speaker 4 (12:46):
No, it won't. Just more affirmation. To back up what
Timon said about the win total with the Chiefs, Andy
Reid is nine to two to the over on his
win totals with the Chiefs. Just absolutely unred like one
of the most consistent bets that you can make in
the offseason. Ear in and ear out Andy Reid going
over his win total.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
You know why, I think we can all agree Andy Reid,
when he wins one more super Bowl will go down.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
As the greatest coach in NFL history.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
Honestly, I think that's accurate.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Look at that, Simon, you were laughing at me.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
I need two or three more. I just I can't
get there yet because I just have so much respect
for Bill.
Speaker 1 (13:31):
Yeah, but if Andy Reid wins six Super Bowls with
Patrick Mahons, which is not out of the question, there's
no reason to believe that he can't go down. What
he did offensively is as brilliant as what Bill Belichick
did defensively.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
But I see, I disagree just because we always say
it's the offense will always be easier. The league is
built to cater to the offense. That's why the Belichick
thing just blows my mind. Again. People forget that Rams
super Bowl with the Patriots. That was all Belichick. Like,
there's just he had his early years and even in
his later years he still had his fastball. But you know,
(14:04):
it was just so ugly for the last five years. Chad,
I'm on an island here trying to defend the guy,
and I get it. But yeah, it's hard to disagree
with you. If he gets the six Super Bowls, that's
a real conversation.
Speaker 4 (14:14):
Look, Belichick, Belichick is already out there. He's like retired,
he's dating twenty year olds. He's not interested in coming
back to the NFL anymore. Andy Reid, by the time
he retires, he actually might have more wins on his
resume than Belichick does. Yeah, and so if he's the
winning this head coach and he racks up another one
to two Super Bowls with Mahomes, and you add in
(14:34):
the fact that Belichick never had success without Brady. Andy
Reid has had success making quarterbacks better like wherever he's been,
Like Andy Reid at that point would be the greatest
NFL head coach.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
Listen, you say Bill Belichick had that win against the Rams.
I say Andy Reid had mini mouse with mustard or
whatever that play was called. You know, at the end
of the game. All right, our next up. This is
where it gets interesting. LA Chargers.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
According to the.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Strength of schedule, which is the Vegas version of strength
of schedule, which is adding up the win totals projected
win totals according to book makers that the Chargers will face,
they have the second easiest schedule AT's win the super
Bowl forty five to one odds to win the Division
(15:29):
three twenty season win total eight and a half. So, like,
this is a middling team right now. We're not gonna
sugarcoat it. Their offensive line middle of the packet twelfth.
Everyone likes for Sean Slater, everyone's excited about joe Alt,
but we don't really know a lot about this offensive line.
(15:50):
Their d line rank has really drops twenty second. According
to PFF. You got Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack who
are older and in too often for this unit to
be reliable. Friedman, we had Bill Barnwell on don't be offended.
He came on before you did. He said he loved
this team for next year. I do think we're making
(16:12):
a little bit of mistake if we discount this team
for this season as an over win total team. And
I can make an upside argument, but I want to
hear your reaction to what I'm saying.
Speaker 4 (16:24):
All right, Chad, I don't know if you remember last
year I came on, we talked about the NFC West, Yes,
and Simon was talking about the Rams and how you
could bet them maybe to win the division. I said,
you should bet them to win the super Bowl. All right,
I'm gonna say the same stupid thing right now about
the Chargers. I love them forty five to one to
(16:44):
win the Super Bowl. Have you guys ever heard of
Peyton Manning? That guy knows Baul. I'm just gonna say
he knows football. He thinks Justin Herbert is a top
five NFL quarterback. I think the same thing. And I
think Jim Harbaugh coming in based on what he did
years ago with the forty nine Ers, based on what
he did in Michigan, I think he comes in right
now and is probably a top eight NFL head coach,
(17:07):
maybe top five.
Speaker 5 (17:09):
Just the way it feels. I mean, it feels like
New Year's Day, you know, it feels like being born,
feels like coming out of the womb. You know, it's
like you're in there, it's comfortable and it's safe, and
now you're out. You're born, bright, chaos, people looking at you,
people talking at you, and just feels good to have
it happen.
Speaker 4 (17:28):
There are very few teams that have that type of
combination of quarterback and head coach who are both in
the top eight at their respective positions. Greg Roman has
had success. You maybe don't like what he's done long term,
but he's had success quickly turning around offenses and making
(17:49):
them better. Harbaugh has had success with Roman in without Roman. Now, Chad,
you mentioned Bosa Khalil Mack. Both know a little bit injured,
a little bit older. But if they can stay healthy,
and if that defense can play just a little bit better,
if it can play up to the talent level that
it has there with Derwin James Sante, Samuel Junior in
the secondary, like that defense could be average, and if
(18:11):
you have a really efficient and well managed offense with
an average defense like that is enough to get a
team into the playoffs, especially when they're playing two teams
are going to talk about later, the Broncos and the Raiders.
And I think it's worth noting that in the Justin
Herbert timeframe with the Chargers, they have always played the
(18:33):
Chiefs tight. They are five and two against the spread
with Herbert at quarterback against the Chiefs. And so if
they can sweep the bottom feeders in their division, if
they can still one win against the Chiefs, go five
to one in division. You mentioned they have a really
easy schedule outside of division. This could actually be a
(18:55):
team that I'm not gonna say they're going to win
the division, but like they could be, right they are,
and a really tough out in the playoffs, and a
hardball team that is feeling itself once it gets into
the playoffs. That feels like a really dangerous team. So
forty five to one, like, I'll just say it's not
going to happen. The Chargers are not going to win
the super Bowl. But this line is too long. It
(19:17):
shouldn't be forty five to one, it should be thirty
to one.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I don't disagree with that about that being too long.
I don't mind the idea of taking a flyer on
the Chargers. I do like their over Simon first my bubble.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
There's nothing I love more Chadan, two guys loving the
Chargers in August when Herbert just gotta have a walking
boot two days ago. I mean, this is what I
live for this team. I've taken a large position on
them to be the worst in this division. Actually, it's
it's just a classic case. Wow, Hardball's gonna come in,
and I just think he's gonna burn it all down.
I think he knows it's a team filled with losers,
bad draft picks, and he's gonna revet in his own identity.
(19:57):
So it's like Joe All is the first step of that.
That guy fits his personality perfect. I think he's gonna
run the ball so much more than they've ever run
in the past. Right, He's gonna take the ball out
of Herbert's hands, which sounds stupid, but my mentality is
he needs to build this kid back up. This kid's
never been properly coached in his entire career. I mean,
you just go through it. Even when Kellen Moore was there,
he didn't trust Kellen Moore. He's still tried to play
(20:19):
hero ball like Herbert couldn't help but try to throw
the ball downfield, which I had no problem with because
he had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that's totally gone.
Like Joshua Palmer, who I love is a sleeper in
fantasy football, that's gonna be his safety valley all season.
These other guys, I just don't like Lad McConkie all
these other guys. I just don't have faith in these
outside receivers where we've had that in the past.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Chat.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
So to me, this team it's gonna be bad, especially
if Herbert's already banged up head end of the season,
Like it's just already starting off in a bad foot.
Did this guy need a training camp with this new
offense He's missed two and a half weeks, Like that's
a big deal. So to me, it's already starting off wrong.
And I get why people are falling in love with
the idea of the future, because I'm with Bill, like
(21:00):
next year, barn Wall is so right, like this is
the team next year. I'd be a buyer on right
because I do think he's gonna get rid of a
lot of these old guys that are on this team
with bad contracts and will kind of be a new
team next year. Well this year, it just feels like
they're paying for the couple past years, like, you know,
messing up in the draft, overpaying guys a shit overpaid.
So to me, I get where you guys are coming from.
There's so much to be up excited about in the
(21:21):
future of this team. I just think it's a year earlier, right,
Like the other teams to me are further out along
in this division than they are the Broncos.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
We're going to get to that, but the Broncos are
further along the Raiders. The Gardner minshew, all right, we're
going to get to it. We're going to get to it,
and we've got a special graphic to prove it that.
Maybe with the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
You're right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
I actually went back and looked at Harbaugh as a
coach in his first year with his new teams not
always great. Like we've got a vision of Harbaugh coming
in and he is immediately turning a team around. And
I think he does have an aura and sort of
a mysticism about him that we believe every player buys in.
(22:05):
He is so enthusiastic, he knows football, He's a football guy.
What he has done, whether it was San Diego or Stanford,
or the Niners or Michigan, there's a true belief that
he's a guy who can make people elevate their play
(22:25):
through scheme and through support and through positioning, that they're
automatically going to be better. And I think that's what
a lot of people are banking on is sort of
the mythology of Jim Harbaugh. They have tried to improve
their offensive line, they have brought in Greg Roman. They
(22:47):
are favored in ten games this year. A team that
came in last in the AFC West is favored in
ten different games this year. That's how easy their schedule is.
So you kind of have to believe that this is
a team of at least decent quality with a top
five quarterback. And I think we all agree he is
a good quarterback. We're not denying that.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
You gotta believe.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
I think he's an inconsistent quarterback that's never won a
playoff game.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Well, Matthew Freeman's Peyton Manning disagrees with.
Speaker 3 (23:16):
You, and they probably have the same agent. I mean,
it was just an Outlandis comment. It's just I didn't
want to go into it. Because I was just like,
come on, Peyton, you're better than this. But no, I again,
this is what people love, the idea of Herbert rather
than the results of Herbert. And that's the toughest thing
because it's like, oh, just throw it out there. Wins
are not a QB stat all right, No one's saying
(23:38):
it is. But it's like in his draft alone, Joe
Burrow has done something, Jalen Hurts has done something right.
Jordan Love in one year has done more than we've
seen in six years of Herbert being a starter. So
it's just it's just tough for me to get there.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Brother Bridman, I can't believe he's coming after you like that.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
Whatever, Chad, I'm I mean, it pains me to say this.
I am aligned with you on this and the wind
totals specifically.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
Is I just want to be Freeman. You know you
don't want to be there.
Speaker 4 (24:07):
I'll be there. Nine point seven is where I have
this projected. Wow, you know eight and a half is
the total there. So this is one of the few
wind totals that I don't mind betting the over on.
I think normally win totals that's where I want to
be taking unders, and if I like a team, I
want to be betting on them to win the Super Bowl,
win Division, things like that. But there's such a large
discrepancy here between where this line is and where I
(24:30):
have my projection that I don't mind betting this in
the wind total market as well.
Speaker 1 (24:33):
I've changed my mind. I'm all over the under. I'm
anti I'm anti Herbert on this right now, Let's get
to the to the Las Vegas Raiders here, okay, because
they're fascinating to me and like it's a team where.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
They sided.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Gardner Minshew is going to be their starting quarterback, and
I'm going to get to the strength to schedule and
all that kind of stuff, but we that is breaking
news and we're dedicated to the news here. So Friedman,
give me your take on Gardner Minshew as the starting
quarterback over Aiden O'Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
I mean, I would say it almost doesn't matter. It
had to be Gardner Minshew, but this is the worst
quarterback duo in the league, and so it almost didn't
matter who was the starting quarterback. I think this is
going to be a really uninspiring offense, and I absolutely
love the under of six and a half on the
(25:45):
win total, and I will say, you know, you know,
look around at different books for this, but six and
a half, I think that number should be like five
and a half. Really, I think this is going to
be such a bad team. But I will see. I
think the offense is going to be funneled pretty exclusively
through DeVante Adams, and so if you look at the
(26:07):
prop market for him, one thousand point five is his
prop number, I think that's too low, even though he's
you know, aging going to be thirty two this year.
I think he gets a ton of targets and goes
over that number for you know, like the fifth time
in the past five years, and then Zamir White over
seven hundred seventy five point five rushing yards. I think
(26:27):
he smashes that because I think it's going to be
an offense that whether they're throwing, it's DeVante Adams and
then they're running a lot and Zamir White gets a
lot of that action. Because I do not believe in
Alexander Madison.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Alexander Madison, I love that name.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
The strength to schedule for this team, by the way,
ninth Hardest plays to the idea that maybe you need
to look at their under with Gardner Minshew as quarterback.
I do think look like last year, there's so much
hype about Gardner Minshew and what he did with the Colts.
(27:05):
Gardner Minshew is more like the guy who played with
the Jaguars inconsistently to me than he is the guy
who was a savior for the Colts last year, playing
in Shane Steichen's offense, who put him in so many
positions to succeed. Simon, you clearly loved the Raiders a
(27:31):
second ago when I brought up Gardner Minshew, like I said,
strength to schedule ninth artist nineteen is their offensive line
rank top ten defensive line largely because of Max Crosby,
So it's about Gardner Minshew. Do they get over six
and a half with Gardner Minshew?
Speaker 4 (27:52):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (27:52):
I love this team. That's some one of my favorite
sleeper teams of the year, and it's just simply because
people have so much doubt with this team where they're
not looking at they're only real weak to me on
this team is their quarnerback position. It's like the Colts.
The Colts secondary chad is absolutely terrible, but we still
bet their upside. I still have the same feeling here
with this Raiders team. It's like, yeah, their secondary it's
an issue that to me is a big issue. But
(28:13):
this team, there's so much many people are going to
credit for. I know Chad's not a huge fan of Minshew.
I mean, I'll never forget this summer. We're doing a
show and I said that if you sent Minshew thirty
five years back in the time and he played on
the Dallas Cowboys, he too could win six Pro Bowls
and make zero All Pros. And Chad was disgusted in that.
He's like, no, only Troy Aikman can make six Pro
(28:33):
Bowls and zero All Pros behind the best team and
of all the nineties. So I just don't think you
understand how that Minshew's not as bad as pop perceived.
Like he's been on pace with guys like Trevor Lawrence
and his career stat numbers, Like he's just as good
as these guys who people build up. And it's just
because it's Minshew, Like I get where they're coming from.
Like you look at this guy on tape and he
doesn't look like an NFL starting quarterback. He's small, he's
(28:55):
quirky sometimes makes horrible reads. But lastually with the Colts,
a lot of this stuff wasn't his fault. I mean,
even going back to that last game, but they almost
speed Houston. He was one completion away on a fourth
down from them being in the scoring position to be Houston. Right,
he didn't make that running back drop that ball. That
was a good pass. It was a running back that
did drop it. So it's like, Minshew, yes, is he inconsistent?
I totally agree with that. But what you're failing to
(29:16):
see on this offense is this is going to be
an old school, twelve personnel offense with arguably one of
the most talented tight ends we've ever seen in the
history of football coming to the league in Brock Bowers. Like,
people don't understand when Nick Saban's talking about you, saying
he did there was only two players he feared playing
last year. One was Neighbors, who I already told Youoh,
I'm obsessed with Neighbors. The next was Bowers, Like, he
(29:38):
can't believe how incredibly talented this kid is. And you
can run him in every way. You're gonna run him
at the fullback, you can split him out a tight end,
you can split him out at wide receiver, like this
kid is literally the future of the league his type
of playing style, like him and Sam Laporta. So to me,
they're already hitting on the nail on the head like
they're running twelve personnel. They're using brock Bowers in crazy positions.
I'm not even talking about Myers, the guy they took
(29:59):
last year, who who's another great tight end. And then
he mixed in the fact that the wide receiver position
is pretty strong. Their offensive line is better than people perceive.
I love this offense. Now defensively, check I can't believen
bring this up. They have Christian Wilkins, the best, one
of the best D tackles all football, came from Miami
and joined this team. Max Crosby plus seven hundred to
win Defensive Player of the Year. I love that bet.
(30:19):
Like I'm I am very very highvily invested in him
being Defensive Player of the Year just because he's never
had this before. He's never had a guy getting doubles
in the middle. Like, it's going to be insane watching
this D line now with that, with that kind of setup,
So I get the hesitation, like no one wants to
say they're putting, you know, five figures on Minshew and
the Raiders over win total. But I am like, I
(30:41):
love this team, and I think Pierce's Tomlin two point zero.
He's a motivated or of men. Like last year that
team should have fell apart, and he pulled them all
together and had some incredible wins down the stretch, and
I think that carries over this season. So this is
a team that, yeah, I think their second best in
this division right now, and I think Minshew is heavily,
heavily underrated by public perception. And there's that stat I
(31:03):
was looking for. Look at that graphic, Chad.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Let's all right, so we're getting super fancy in our
show here today. Gardner Minshew in his years as a
starting quarterback Versus Trevor Lawrence in his years as a
starting quarterback Friedman Gardner Minshew six point nine two yards
per attempt, Trevor Lawrence six point seventy three yards. Touchdowns,
(31:29):
touch on percentage four point two percent for Gardner Minshew,
three point three percent for Trevor Lawrence. QBR eighty nine
point three for Gardner Minshew, eighty five for Trevor Lawrence.
Interception percentage one point seven percent for Gardner Minshew, two
(31:49):
point two percent for Trevor Lawrence. Didn't Trevor Lawrence just
get like one hundred and fifty MILI guaranteed.
Speaker 3 (31:55):
I think you got two hundred million, brother.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
For basically mid as the kids say, mid stats and
the promise of potential because he's got pretty great hair
and a good arm and had one epic comeback against
the guy Simon Hunter doesn't even think is a very
good quarterback in Justin Herbert. And this guy's got a
(32:19):
bag because Doug Peterson is his coach, and Gardner Minshew
is bouncing around as a journeyman and he's got the
better stats as a starter than Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Come on, Freeman, Yeah, what you're not saying is that
Trevor Lawrence, like for a third of his career stats
has the stink of Urban Meyer all over him.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
That's not counting Urban Meyers. Year we threw that out,
you did, Yeah the last years? Look at that.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
Oh so now I've now I've been dunked on. But
also twenty twenty three, Trevor Lawrence was injured, Like, I
think it's worth taking that into account. But yeah, Trevor
Lawrence has disappointed. That doesn't mean that Gardner Minshew is
the answer for the Raiders. Like part of this is
I have no faith in Luke Getzi as the offensive coordinator.
(33:08):
Like to what Simon said, they are going to think
about this. They are going to run a very antiquated
two tight end system. And even if you think that
brock Bauers is the future of the league, talking about, oh,
this guy so versatile, we can line him up at
full back, talking about that is almost the sign of like,
wait a minute, this offense could be in big trouble.
(33:30):
If you're thinking of two tight ends as the solution
to a run heavy offense quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew like this,
this could be a massive disaster. If they win games,
they barely win games, and if they lose games, they
get absolutely boat raced with that kind of offense that
they have. And I know in the second half of
(33:51):
the season their defense looked a lot better, but like
they were also playing some pretty subpar quarterbacks for a
lot of that stretch, So I don't want to put
too much weight on like what could have been just
kind of like randomness in the second half of the season.
This is a bad team, Simon, a very bad team.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
I guess Patrick Mahomes is just some random quarterback that
they beat on Christmas Day. That's the one game that's
a big game, though it sparked demand to win another
Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Well, look, this is where it gets interesting, right, Like
is it one game that was an anomaly? Is it
the one game that proves they of what they can
be with Antonio Pierce as coach.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
I did not look freeman.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
I Chad hated this team two months ago. This is
a lot of work for me to try to spin
them here.
Speaker 1 (34:44):
I did not know Simon was going to come this
strong on the Raiders. This was the first we've talked
about it. I'm shocked to get this feedback from him
right now. I'm shocked to hear these five figures and.
Speaker 3 (34:57):
You see, we're you're going to do week one chat.
It's about to get real ross, real quick. Plus three
against the Chargers.
Speaker 1 (35:05):
Well, look, if they're on the road, I can take that.
Or actually, if they're if they're the home dog.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
No, no, they're on the road. Plus three, all right,
Well I'll talk.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
I feel like we're gonna find five games we life
better than that.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Game the Freedman. He makes a convincing case.
Speaker 4 (35:24):
Does he don't? I don't think so. His case is, oh,
this two tight end offense is going to be awesome
based on what we might see out of a rookie
tight end that that.
Speaker 2 (35:35):
Never works, Simon.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
He makes a case I'm bringing up because you never
even mentioned him. You're just talking about Devanta Adams. It's like, dude,
you're forgetting about Brock Bowers here first round pick. I
just I know you don't watch a lot of college football,
bro when this dude's that guy.
Speaker 4 (35:48):
Look, look, look, I I know about Brock Bowers.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I hope he makes me a little nervous.
Speaker 4 (35:54):
I didn't mention him because I don't think his prop
number is especially betible. But I did think that DeVante
Adam has a battable prop number.
Speaker 3 (36:02):
That's fair.
Speaker 1 (36:03):
Can I interest anybody in the Chargers over eight and
a half?
Speaker 4 (36:06):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (36:08):
Take the ultimated line under six and a half. Chargers
people have fun with it.
Speaker 1 (36:12):
Oh my god, Now it's just Freeman. Now it just
feels like the personal again cooking. All right, So Simon
loves the Raiders. Honest to god, this is the first
I've heard you have this stronger opinion on the Raiders,
and it feels like one of the stronger opinions you've
had for any of the division previews that we've done.
(36:32):
So it makes me want to ask you right now,
in your sort of pantheon of futures bets season win
totals bets, where do the Raiders stand in terms of
the amount of money put down versus the other bets?
Speaker 3 (36:48):
I mean, I have I definitely have three times the
amount on the Chiefs to win this division. Like that's
definitely my biggest bet. I mean, that's just the safest.
I got no issue locking up my money for seven
months on the chief Yefs. It's that's a lot of
harder pill to swallow when you're talking the Raiders. And
like we said, Minshew, right, even though I'm getting the
guys back here, it's like everything Freeman said is true. Man,
(37:08):
the wheels could fall off this by week seven and
I look like an idiot, But I just love the
way this teams set up and how they're just being
doubted by everybody except the guys in Vegas. Like we
talked months ago, I told you don't take this under
because you were like talking about ticking their underwin told
and I said, listen, all the guys in Vegas I'm
talking to they love this team as a sleeper team.
And the more I've looked into, the more I've researched it,
it works out. It's like this team does have really
(37:31):
good pieces to their defense is not as bad as
people perceive them to be, even though I do agree
that their secondary does of question marks. But yeah, chat
this team and the next team were talking about. These
are two teams that unfortunately that the word is out
on Denver. But a month ago when I was betting
them at the sportsbook, no one was going there betting
the Denver team. Same with the Vegas team. So these
are two teams that definitely are professional against public perception.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
Gotta say, gotta say, what a surprise that the guys
in Vegas like the team in Vegas. I never would
have anticipated that.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
These are like seven year old men. You think they
give a fuck about the Raiders in Vegas. They don't
care about that.
Speaker 4 (38:06):
Right, It is in the atmosphere. And one thing I
will say, like, okay, is it possible to say anything
about kind of like the market in general. I know
that there's one specific sports book that you know is
attached to this show. But I'll just say generally, there
is the big domestic sports books. There are some that
(38:27):
are not in Nevada. There's one that is the one
that is in Nevada has a lot of liability that
is built up on the Raiders. The other domestic books
that aren't in Nevada aren't taking nearly as much Raiders money.
Like that is kind of the sign people in Vegas
are betting on Vegas.
Speaker 3 (38:50):
Yeah, those people aren't. I mean, not all the people
live in Vegas, professionals that you know that right.
Speaker 4 (38:54):
Well, yes, but what I'm saying is like saying the
guys in Vegas are betting on Vegas isn't really.
Speaker 3 (39:00):
The guys in Cleveland. Like I'm just talking about pros bro.
I'm not talking about the actual guys in Vegas. It's
just this thing we say it here. Don't don't look
too into it.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Okay, it's not a literal interpretation. It's wise guys, the
guys in Vagae.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
Well then you could just say, sharps. If you are
saying the guys in Vegas, that could easily be read
as a literal statement, because that's what you're saying. Most
people say sharps.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
Not I refuse to say that word.
Speaker 1 (39:28):
All right, I do want to talk about the Broncos,
because look, this team, I think we all believe they
were kind of a shit show at the end of
last year. Then they drafted bow Knicks, who you could
telegraph that Sean Payton loved this guy and that he
was going to be the one of all the quarterbacks
getting drafted. It has been a constant conversation. Bo Nicks
(39:49):
has performed very well in the preseason. People have been surprised. Again,
it's preseason. We're not getting too hyped up about bow Knicks.
Three hundred to one to win the Super Bowl, eighteen
to one to win the division. That is double the
odds of the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
At nine to one.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Five and a half is the season win total. All right, Simon,
we know how you feel about the Raiders. You've already
teased that there is some interest in buying into the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (40:22):
Make your case.
Speaker 1 (40:23):
Make your case, and Freeman, I hope you're fucking taking
notes because I know you're gonna want to go the
other way.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
Yeah, it's just the fact that you could have got
him a twenty to one Bone Mix. You know what
were that three weeks ago to be offensive rookie of
the year. It sucks that that's gone now check because
it's the secret tower, right And I looked at I
didn't give it on the show. I bet him and
I bet JJ, which you know, even if I didn't
believe JJ was gonna be the best player, the best rookie,
the value was just too long, Like it was just
(40:52):
too much respect given to the top two guys, and
Williams and Daniels got luck. I didn't give out JJ
on the show because obviously he got hurt, and that's
just that's a dead bet. Now the flip side bon Knicks,
if you still want to bet it, I don't hate it,
but the value is obviously gone at this point. Like
the hype Chad just said it, it's just too much.
People are going crazy because you want what nine for
ten with that passing touchdown in a preseason game, which
(41:14):
again he looked good, but it's like, don't overreact too
much to it. It's it is vanilla. And if you
know anything about bone Knicks, he can look incredible for
a quarter and then completely throw three picks in the
next quarter. Like that is the boon Nicks experience, Like
that's just always been his graft about him. It's just
an inconsistent guy. The hope is the reason I'm positive
(41:34):
this team in betting this over is because he's with
to me, one of the smartest offensive minds in all
football in Sean Payton. And it's like, if he just
listens to Sean Payton, right, he does not go out
and do crazy bon Knicks thing. He just stays within
the offense, follows his coach every week, coaching him up
on what to do play by play. There is a
world here where this team get the six seven wins,
like five and a half their win total. It feels right,
(41:56):
But I like the over because I just have him
at six wins. So to me, this is a team
that I don't think defensively and offensive they'll be as
bad as they were last year because it felt like
that team had so much drama chad behind the scenes.
They kind of gave up right at one point where
like we know they kind of have players, right, they
aren't that team that lost by seventy points to Miami, Right,
there is a middle of their ground.
Speaker 4 (42:17):
So to me, bow.
Speaker 3 (42:18):
Knicks it's not something I'm heavily invested in, Like I'm
more invested in the Raiders in this Chiefs team, but
it's a team that I liked. They're over because I
just think Champagne is such a good coach. It's like,
I just can't see another season of them only getting
five or four wins. Like it's just there's too many
questions there that I'm not giving them out the you know,
shock the world to be the second this division with
bon Nicks. But it's like, I do believe offensively, defensively,
(42:41):
they'll be improved when they were last year, and last
year they were what a three four win team, So
it's like, you know, not shocking to think they can
get two more wins after such a disaster year last year.
Speaker 1 (42:49):
Eighth hardest strength of schedule A Lion is fifteenth. Not
really anything to say about it, nah, thirty first according
to Pro Football Focused the Best Edition, John Franklin, Myers
from the New York Jets goes from being expendable with
(43:13):
the Jets to being the best defensive lineman with the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (43:19):
Yeah it's not pretty, Friedman, talk to me.
Speaker 4 (43:24):
I have this projected at five point seven so like
right in line with the win total market of five
and a half. But to echo Simon's point, Nicks is
really intriguing. I don't think he has a chance to
win Offensive Rookie of the Year if the Broncos are
in that five and a half win range. But the
thing is, I'm assuming he's going to start in week one,
(43:46):
and that makes him, I think, very live to lead
all of the rookies in passing yardage, and there are
some props that you can bet in that, and he's
not the leader in that market, like he trails Williams
and and Jayden Daniels by a pretty healthy margin in
that market. So I would be looking to bet him
(44:06):
in that regard because I think if he's starting week
one in terms of his passing production, because he has
a Simon said, like one of the best offensive minds
guiding him, in Sean Payton, he could lead all of
the rookies and passing yards especially because this defense is
not good. They do have a hard strength of schedule
and so they might need to throw the rock a
(44:27):
decent amount, and so I could see bo Nicks having
a pretty good year statistically even if this offense, you know,
doesn't really blow up, and even if this team in
general still kind of disappoints and is you know, on
this subpar side.
Speaker 2 (44:44):
I like that idea.
Speaker 3 (44:46):
That's fat, that's a really yeah, that's more fun.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
That's break that down right, and it makes sense, right,
Like the Bears could be competitive, and so it's very
possible they do want to run the ball a little
bit more and be more conservative, especially with their coaching staff.
Speaker 2 (45:05):
Sean Payton will let it rip.
Speaker 1 (45:07):
And if he feels like he has a guy who
can execute his offense, even if it's dink and dunk,
ten yard slants, screens, things that Drew Brees was so
good at that, he feels like he might be able
to get the next generation of out of bo Nicks.
He's going to he he's a high risk, you know,
play caller. So that's a really good idea.
Speaker 4 (45:29):
Yeah, five to one. That's where I put it in
the bet tracker at Fantasy Life. It's still available at
plus four fifty and I still like it at that number.
Speaker 1 (45:38):
Good, all right, Freeman, I feel like I know where
Simon stands on his best bets for this division. Chiefs
five to one win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (45:51):
Chiefs. You know, minus whatever to win the division.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
I think it's up to like two thirty.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Yeah, it's like my yeah, minus two thirty to win
the division.
Speaker 3 (46:01):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 1 (46:05):
Inappropriate amount on the Raiders over six and a half
and probably a little bit touch less on the Chargers
under eight and a half. Give me your favorite AFC
West bet.
Speaker 4 (46:19):
So the favorite is forty five to one Chargers to
win the Super Bowl. I know it's ridiculous, not going
to happen, it's still my favorite. And I will say, like,
if I had to have like ancillary favorite bets, I
will be with Simon five to one on the Chiefs
to win the Super Bowl. I like that one, and
then I would just kind of put this earmark of
(46:41):
anytime this season. The Chiefs are underdogs. If it happens,
just bet them. I don't need any other information on that, Like,
just bet them in that situation if.
Speaker 3 (46:51):
You want to bet early lines. They are one game
underdog against the forty nine Ers on the road. I believe.
So you could if you want to take up a
position right now, you can. I mean, obviously you can't
get that much down, but still, if you want to
get it now, Freeman's right, you can get them as
a dog all right.
Speaker 1 (47:09):
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five BET three six five.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
Dozen two ordinary.
Speaker 1 (47:14):
That's why you get more boosts with them than with
anyone else. Every day they pro out the odds on
hundreds of bats to give you a chance to win more.
Bet three sixty five boost specific markets your winnings and
even parlays.
Speaker 2 (47:25):
And they don't stop there.
Speaker 1 (47:27):
Keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds
with the incredible super boosts.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Check out the boost and see why it's never ordinary.
Speaker 1 (47:33):
A Bet three six five must be twenty one or
older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and olderre in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. I
want to thank our good friend to Nemesis Matthew Friedman
(47:56):
from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life coming on the show today.
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Thursday
at eleven am Eastern to talk NFC West, the final
of our division previews. In our series previewing every division,
(48:16):
download us some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want,
feedback his gift until next time.
Speaker 2 (48:24):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
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