August 6, 2025 • 47 mins
Who can dethrone the Chiefs out West? We move to the AFC West as our annual division-by-division NFL preview episodes continue. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter continue our march to NFL Week 1, covering a foursome known for the best head coaching in the league.
Can Jim Harbaugh get the most out of Justin Herbert this season? Were last year's results a mirage in Denver? Will the Chiefs ever stumble in the regular season? And can the Las Vegas plow forward through a rebuilding effort? All these questions answered and more. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network,
continuing our division by division previews. Let's welcome in my
co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
professional better Simon hunter Head. O's amit, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
I'm so happy that we have gotten through the Hall
of Fame game. The Cam Newton Jalen Hurts discourse has
been left in July. We are onto August with the
dumb football talk has moved to just guys in practice,
And I have to know, how are you feeling about
Caleb Williams. I mean, this has just been insanity these
(00:54):
last seventy two hours. Where's Chad Milman, the Bears fan
head at right now?
Speaker 1 (00:59):
I am so so it's funny. I forgot. I feel
like I mentioned it in one of our Western Division previews,
something about the Bears and who they're going to be
playing and what they challenge. Are they a challenge on
(01:19):
the schedule? And I think it's the Raiders actually, And look,
my head is spinning at every second is a temperature
check on Caleb Williams our friend Colin Cowhard. It feels
like because he's now a Chicago a citizen of the
(01:41):
suburbs of Chicago. He is talking about Caleb in every show,
and my entire feed of whatever I check on social
media is Caleb socks. Look at this throw by Caleb
Caleb socks. Look at this catch by Luther Burden, Caleb sucks.
(02:01):
Look at this catch by Roma dunees A Like I'm
so all over the map. The Bears are disappointed. The
Bears are happy. Ben Johnson takes it on himself if
the team isn't prepared, Caleb is progressing at the rate
they want him to progress. The whole thing is mind boggling,
and I don't know what to do about it other
than be really glad that I bet the Packers at
(02:23):
twenty something to want to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
I told you this was gonna happen in two weeks ago.
I said, this guy's offensive system is really complicated, and
I wouldn't pay attention to any Caleb Williams talk until
about two weeks before the season, just because I knew
it was just gonna be awful like this. It's just
the way it is when you bring a new system,
when you've gone from literally having the easiest coaching staff
that really didn't care. To a perfectionist that wants to
(02:47):
run his way, there's gonna be growing pains. And my
favorite thing is just Bears media where I saw a
clip of a Bears guy saying how Caleb's regressed, and
it was him taking a snaff under center, dropping back
and it was a free runner in his face and
Caleb threw that like over a guy's head or to
some guy's feet, which was the only play to make
other than take a sack. And this guy's talking about
how he's regressed, and it's just like this is this
(03:10):
is August. This is my favorite part of it, where
it's just like if guys have different latencies like these
different media members don't like Asians, so they don't like
these players. There's different little things like that people need
to be aware of. So yeah, I love this time
of year. Every little thing in camp to me is
the best, even the holdouts, like people are sick of
the drama. I love it all because it's all theater, right,
that's the most fun part about it, and the fact that
(03:32):
it's in my division. I mean, this is the best.
This is literally my dream scenario now two division foes.
Top players are holding out. It doesn't get much better
for me as an Eagles fan.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Well, look, I had the strangest experience, and we're going
to get to the AFC West and I as of
this morning, I was breaking down practice video of Josh Simmons,
the new likely left tackle and rookie from Ohio State,
going to up against Chris Jones for the Chiefs. I
had the strange brands last night. I'm sitting at dinner
(04:02):
with my wife and we're realizing that our younger son is,
as of today, twenty three days away from going to college.
Stacey and I were having dinner together last night. He
was out, and as we're talking a we realized when
(04:23):
he leaves, there might not be any reason for us
to talk to each other anymore. She will be doing
her thing, I'm doing my thing. There's no sort of
structure to make us come down and eat at the
same time anymore, because we're both busy with life and
the kid was the thing that made us eat together.
But all of a sudden, she started asking me about betting.
(04:46):
She was like, so, if a team is minus seven,
they have to win by more than seven for you
to win your bet I want to be like I
was so thrilled she was engaged and interested, and I've
didn't want to be like, dude, I've been doing this
for twenty seven years at this point, now, after books,
(05:12):
after giving up on ESPN and starting freaking Action Network,
after creating a life that is entirely around this industry,
now you're asking me about what it means if a
team is a seven point favorite. But I didn't. I
patiently explained, and in the end she's like, I don't know.
Man doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. And
(05:32):
that's where we landed.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Sounds like she's dipping the toes and she wants to
get on the action. So I like, it's.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Maybe you know what it is? Actually maybe on Sundays
she knows I'm going to be miserable without my kid,
so she's thinking, how can she sort of improve our
collective lives, because if I'm miserable all day with the
betting and he's gone, she might want to be helpful
in some way.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It's true.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
At one point on the show, Simon, we got to
dig in deep on my conversation with the sports performance
psychiatrist that I had to break down how I make
decisions and how I feel during actual games that I've
bet on. I know, I told you I was going
to do this for the book. I had the conversation
(06:20):
the other day fascinating preview of what we're going to
do to come. We're going to go through every team
in the AFC in the NFC. As you all know,
today we are talking about the AFC West, home of
the best franchise in football over the last half decade,
in the Kansas City Chiefs. Much as it pains a
friend Matt Mitchell. Also, Simon Hunter might argue that a
(06:41):
team that's won a Super Bowl and been to a
Super Bowl could compete with that mantle. But let the
Patriots dominance in the East. Our generation to go, they've
relied on a week division full of discharrae. Is that
changing with Sean Payton and Jim Harbut now coaching teams
in the AFC West. We will discuss. Simon First, one
(07:03):
up Kens City Chiefs Division odds minus one, twenty conference
odds plus three twenty five, super Bowl plus eight fifty
and kind of dropping. It had been at plus seven
point fifty win total eleven and a half. I said,
at the top. As I was doing research this morning,
my primary area that I wanted to get some answers
(07:27):
on is have they solved their left tackle issue?
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
That is what cost them the Super Bowl last year?
That was a huge issue for them all season long.
It has been an issue for them going past the
couple of year, going back to the past couple of years.
They drafted Josh Shimmons out of Ohio State. They signed
Jalen Moore from the Niners, both of them to compete
for the left tackle spot. Simmons has clearly taken the
lead and has taken all the first team reps in practice.
(07:54):
Like I said, there was a video of him practicing
taking his first snaps against Chris Jones when he was
lying up on the outside and like you just made
a know. You know the writers who cover these teams
freaking out because he anchored and dropped his hips when
Jones tried to get leverage. Obviously, we are going to
(08:15):
love the Chiefs at plus eight fifty. I don't think
they've solved everything. They still have receiver issues. As much
as Rashi Rice has been dominating, he's still may be suspended.
If you're worth these in concussion protocol. Hollywood Brown injured
his ankle last week. He still hasn't been practicing. Give
me your thoughts to your signing.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
We're very blessed and lucky to live in a time
where the Chiefs exist. If you're a sports better, if
you're a fan of football, maybe you're sick of one.
But as a sports better, it's just been it's the dream.
This is like the dream team to bet on because
you're investing money here in August and you know it's
going to come down to the final game in the
AFC Championship Game. Mahomes has played seven full seasons, Chad.
(08:59):
We all know the stats, five Super Bowls, seven conference
championship games. So it's like he's gonna get you the
AFC Championship Game. He might lose it, right, Like we
keep talking about Lamar Josh Allen. They are in the
football world. They are so doe mathematically, Like to keep
repeating what the Chiefs have done, it just doesn't happen.
Like people can go back and watch those Patriots teams.
(09:21):
They always hit rainom bumps in the road, right, there's
always like Brady incredible run. You know he wasn't doing
the starter's career. It just this isn't normal, Like there's
always going to be the next better team or the
team that the luck breaks their way. And you know
last year it was an anomaly once again where they
went fifteen to one in the regular season. None of
(09:41):
that makes sense, Like this is not a team that
should be going fifteen to one, and you know, resting
starters the end the season, like they were that dominant
in one score games. They had a ton of luck.
But everyone knows it's it's luck, but it's also the
coaching staff and mahomes, like it's just that combo that
they get these teams in these fourth quarters and they
get their death crip ball them. So plus eight fifty,
(10:02):
Like again, we'll talk about it. People know what I
like to do here when these odds are blow ten
to one, I tend to do matchups. So if you
want to do Chiefs first Rams, Chiefs first Eagles, you know,
those are positions I've taken at this point. But yeah,
this division odds, the fact that the highest any book
has had is minus one twenty, there's still some one
tens out there. You have to love that value on
(10:22):
this team this year, and it should be what it is, right.
I do get why the number is this low, because
you know, we talked months ago, this is the best
coaching division all of football. Like they have all these
old heads, all these Hall of famers that just know
how to do it right. And these are the type
of guys that you can give them shit and they'll
stirt turn out the gold and it's like, you know,
(10:43):
last year Hardball was a perfect example that he brought
in his DC coordinator from Michigan, totally revamped that defense,
Toty Rove, vamped the offense with Greg Rohman, the Charge
were a playoff team. You know, pretty damn good. Like
it was one of Herbert's best years. You could say
Sam could be said expected for or what happened with
bow Nicks and Sean Payton. Now you're looking at the
(11:03):
Chiefs though, and minus one ten for this division chat,
So I don't know about you. This is a number.
Right away, I ran to the window and took They
were ten to one, no joke. They were ten to
one Super Bowl odds a couple of months ago. So
that's a number I've been betting as well. Now that
it's down to plus eight fifty, you can still do it.
But like I said, I I'd rather bet the matchups
where we get fifty to one like I had last
year sixty five to one. That's to me, ned's better
(11:26):
tying your money up for six seven months here. But
if your biggest question right now, chat is the receiver position,
I think you're gonna be okay like worthy. To me,
he's got a ton of talent. I think he's a stud.
Rice might miss four games, that's not a problem for
this team. This team just literally does not care about
September or October. Like. This is a November, December, January,
(11:47):
February team, So not a problem to me. Kelsey is
under a new phase of his career. He's more of
a blocking tight end at this point. Damn good blocking
tight end, I might say. So. To me, it's it's
all there for them to win this division again, you know,
be the one on two or three seed. We don't
care if they're on the ruin in the playoffs. It's
just it's Mahomes in the playoffs. So yeah, to me,
(12:07):
it's a great time to be a football fan like
we are so blessed. Is it better have this type
of team where we know me and Chad know the deal.
If it's over three and a half, we fade them
during the regular season. If it's under three in a
field goal, if you're catching points as of dog mahomes,
it's simple. We just go by the book. So yeah,
it's it's it's a fun team to bet on. End.
I get where the general public is sick of them,
but nothing's gonna change. They're great drafting teams. So yeah,
(12:30):
minus minus one ten division odds probably be my best
bet for this team this division.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
What about We've talked a little bit about parlaying them
because they're a minus number with other teams like the Texans,
who are a little bit of plus number to win
the AFC South. Are there parlay combinations that you've been
looking at and thinking about with the minus.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Number, Yeah, like I have them. I don't. I never
go above three less. I'm going really small in the number.
So say I'm putting four to five figures in these parlays,
the most I'll go is three, and if I'm really
going large, I only go two. Like right now, if
I'm going just AFC. My two favorite teams at parlay,
it's going to be the Chiefs and the Bills, like
(13:16):
there's just isn't a world. I don't say any of
these teams, and I hope people were like, well, that's lazy.
It happens every year. That's why I love it. Every
year I go to the books and I've made this
bet since Mahomes. You know, I didn't do it his
first year. I didn't think you'd be good, but it
was kind of a weird thing where I still really
did believe in Herbert at that time. This is a
(13:36):
little different where you know, we're at the point now
of I just Josh Allen's career. I think he's in
the prime. Mahomes, I think he's in a prime. So
if you're looking for very lazy safe, to me, that's
the safest one. Where I do love Lamar. We'll get
to the Ravens. I love them this year. There is
a little bit of risk with that, just because of
Lamar's playing style. We've seen him go down where Josh
(13:57):
Allen just seems to hold up. So yeah, but when
you want to stretch it, Chad like, yeah, we're going
to get to it. I love, obviously the Eagles for
their division. They're a team that another team that's just
I think above and beyond their their foes and their division.
And you know, when you go through all the different divisions,
it's last year kind of felt like it was really easy, right.
It kind of felt like we all knew Detroit was
(14:19):
going to win their division. It wasn't that easy. Chat
It came down to that last game against the Vikings,
and I had to make a huge hedge because I
was I can't believe it looking back, but I was
scared of Sam Darnom that last game that he could
pull the upside off and win that division. So that's
why I like taking these positions, Like you know, you're
getting three to one, two to one on these divisional odds.
It's just so I can hedg you at the end
(14:40):
of the season. It's easier to take positions rather than
Bettnam straight.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
You know what's crazy. You mentioned Mahomes his first full
season playing was twenty eighteen. We're going to talk about
the Cardinals and Kyler Murray later this week in the
NFC West preview. Kyler Murray's first season with two thousand nineteen,
And if you think about those two quarterbacks in context,
(15:04):
like Patrick Mahomes feels like he is a dominant player
who has been at his peak and living in his
peak since the day he started. And Kyler Murray, who's
only one year behind in terms of full seasons played,
feels like every year we are waiting for him to peak.
Even though he had that injury. Patrick Mahomes had injury
too in his career that forced them to miss basically
(15:28):
the rest of the season. It's just astonishing to put
in context how quickly Patrick Mahomes was Hall of Fame
worthy and how long he has performed at that peak
level in the NFL. It's remarkable. Like I'm looking at
his stats right now, Okay, first full season five thousand yards,
(15:53):
second full season four thousand yards, third full season four
thousand yards, fourth four thousand yards, fifth five thousand yards,
sixth four thousand yards. Last year was the first year
he's been a full time starter that he hasn't had
four thousand yards, and he finished at thirty nine twenty eight.
It was also his lowest number of passing touchdowns since
(16:18):
twenty nineteen. I think that's the year he got hurt,
and so like, even at his little drop off, he's
still playing at such a high level. It's frightening how
good this guy is.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, and against that's the crazy part you just said
statistically that was his worst season. That last year was
the year to get this team, and they were unbeatable
and they had the one season they had home throughout,
they had home playoffs. So that's why it's like, we're
gonna get to the Bills al hip Tim about the
Bills team, it's just brutal. When you got the big
bad Chiefs on your side of the conference. It's just
(16:54):
they break all the rules. He's the ultimate cheek coach.
I just broke it down where it's like people are like,
well he's regressing, goes on his deep throws. He doesn't
beat you with deep throws anymore. He beats you one
yard at a time, one or two dump offs at
a time, like he just he's so it's it's just
right at a different level of Mahomes at this point,
like he doesn't need to beat you downfield. He can
(17:14):
just think and dunk you. Twenty five thirty yard drop
thirty play drives just wear these teams out, and that's
why come the fourth quarter, these teams are mentally exhausted.
Where the Chiefs hit their strit it's just it's truly
incredible watching them as a fan and someone that breaks
down the film. It's just they're so well coached, so
smartly put together. It's just and that's the best part
is everyone's last memories, him having the worst game of
(17:37):
his career in the Super Bowl, of them falling apart.
Now they have the third best odds in the AFC
because of that. It's just that's why I love betting.
It's just the general public. They like the new, They
like the new stuff. They don't like the old and news.
So it's it's a fun team to bet on right now,
just because the value is just insane.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Los Angeles Chargers plus three hundred to win the division,
eleven to one to win the conference, twenty five to
one to win the Super Bowl. In total nine and
a half. We know what this team wants to do.
They want to run the ball, they want to be physical,
they want to play great defense. Right They signed Mikai
Becton from the Eagles to fortify the offensive line. They
(18:17):
re signed Rashaun Slater, They have Joe Allton. The interior
of their offensive line was the challenge last year. Remember
so many games where Justin Herbert was just under pressure
immediately from the interior pressure. They drafted a Mario and
Hampton at running back. They did nothing to improve their
(18:37):
receiving core. And maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe the way
that Jim Harbaugh wants to play it and Greg Roman,
the offensive coordinary, wants to play it, they just want
to focus on running the ball and play an elite defense,
which they did do last year first in points allowed,
fifth and EPA ninth in defensive DVOA first in red
zone touchdown percentage allowed first and touchdown allowed in all
(19:00):
to those situations. But let's talk about Justin Herbert, because
when we did the quarterback show, I had him in
the top ten. You did not. So let's talk about
where we're head is at and how that makes you
think about this team and any of the value or
lack of value Super Bowl adds, win total division, odds, conferences.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Yeah, I guessaid that show. We weren't doing a rank
on who is the best athlete, who is the best
thrower of the ball where it gets the most stats.
To me, that's all meaningless. If the goal of football
is to win Super Bowl, if the goal of playing
football is to win playoff games, and then win the
Super Bowl. Herbert is not a top ten quarterback in
any measurement. This guy has struggled in these big moments,
(19:46):
and you know, people will make the many excuses for
him because that's just the way society is now. Like
if someone likes a player like they like him, they
will make so many excuses that make your headspin where
it's like everything you're saying it's just bullshit. It's we
have the tape, We've watched him play and him struggle
in these big moments. Is Herbert like that in the
regular season. No, He's pretty good. That's why people get
(20:06):
sucked in. They believe in it. And I just noticed
during his career in these big games, these tight games
where he would get tight, he would struggle. That has
not changed and Horrball. You know, maybe he can cure
it because this kid has all the time in the world.
And me and you both agree on that. I've liked
the moves they made this offseason. I get why they
didn't go like the attack in the warbesceiar position. You've
(20:29):
invested in Latin McConkie and you let you invested in
Quentin Johnston, Like those are high draft picks that you've
invested big picks in two, they don't need to attack
war receui position. Now if they go out and get
Keenan Allen, I would love that. Keen now is your
third receiver, a veteran coming back and playing for his team.
That to me sounds like a logical move. I know
it's money. That's money mudding up the water right now
because he wants more than they're at than they're given
(20:51):
to him. That's okay, I get it. But in a
week or two, if they get Keenan Allen here, that
to me is a big upgrade to this team because
we've seen it without a feeling on Carolina, like there's
these veterans, you still have gas in the tank that
just on third down, second down there, you know you
can rely on them. Herbert will use that to his benefit, right,
he will use Keenan Allen. Now we're talking about Hampton.
To me, is the biggest edition. Like they're they planned.
(21:13):
They had offers in that first round pick to trade back,
like they were getting really good offers to move back,
and they stayed there and took a running back in
the first round. And this is a team that we
just talked about their identity is run first. And you know,
we don't talk much fantasy here, but this is a
guy I'm jacking in all my fantasy football League's. Like
when historically, when a team takes a stance on taking
(21:33):
them the first round, first round on a running back
like we saw Detroit Gibbs, they're gonna give them touches.
Even if they're splitting carries, they're gonna give them touches.
It doesn't matter where they take them the first They're
gonna get that player touches. Because that's such a high investment.
You're kind of making a statement as a team passing
on I mean, we just talked about like that guy Simmons.
He would be a pretty good add to this team.
(21:54):
They passed on him. I mean, I don't know if
you've heard about John Campbell with the Eagles. He's been
a stud for the Eagles. They passed on him again
for a running back of this spot. So to me,
I kind of like, what their identity is gonna stick with?
I want? I want, honestly didn't want to fade this
team because I'm I just love the other team's division.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
You really want to fade this team?
Speaker 2 (22:12):
I did, but like the more, I like, everything you're
saying is a shock to me right now? Yeah, I can't.
I can't give other people is under on this nine
and a half to me, that's price right just because
I have him at nine and eight this season, my model,
does you know? That's not enough value to really take it?
Where horriball to me. I don't think my model understands
that he can. He can steal you one or two
this year. That's just that's how good of a coach
(22:34):
he is to me. So if you do want to
play the over, I totally getting it. I get why
people love this team just because Herbert, just like we
talked about Lamar and Allen, he will have a breakthrough season.
What is that season though? Is that him beating Houston finally?
Like it's just like we've been waiting every year, We've
been waiting right for him. I mean, here they are
once again plus three hundred wins division. Can he do it?
(22:57):
I don't know if he can because now this division,
to me, Chad is the best it's ever been. So
that's the hesitation for me betting any of these, any
of these numbers with this team, like eleven on one conference,
there's other team's division i'd rather bet. Like to me,
there's just no value there. So yeah, the Chargers, I
love what they've done coming to this season, how they're
setting up for the future. But I'm still of the
(23:18):
mindset that the last regime was so bad. They've they've
ruined this team so bad. It so many ways. There's
still to me, a year or two away from being
a true contender. So I'm not gonna invest any money
on them or against them at this point. I'm just
I'm not losing money on betting their underhere. I just
it's too it's too it's too risky with Horrible because
he can just steal those games. So nine and a
half I think is properly priced.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
Right when you go through the schedules of these teams,
whether it's the Broncos or the Chargers, and want to
talk about the Broncos next, you believe enough in the coaches, yeah,
that you think, Okay, they're going to steal a win
and we're going to talk about this with Pete Peril too,
and the Raiders. They could steal a win or two
in the division that gets them over the time. And
(24:00):
because the division is so competitive they will be able
to when they're playing teams outside the division, they're not
going to be playing teams that are as good, and
so they're going to benefit from playing such a competitive
in division schedule, but it also means they might be
at risk for losing more games than they otherwise would.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Oh yeah, I mean week one, like you're like yours
on a division they go to Brazil to play the
Chiefs week one, which I think is good for them,
like that is like kind of thing where you could
steal that game, But then they have two straight division
games after that, Like that, that's tough. You start three
division games to start the season, and when you just
talk on a really tough division and you know you're
going on the road to Brazil coming back, and then
(24:43):
it's like, okay, now we have to face the Raiders
in Denver. It's like that's a tough start to the season.
Three straight divisional games. But like you said, if they
could somehow steal it, go three and know to start
the season in their division, maybe this is final the
year for Herbert and all breaks right. But that's also
terrifying if you're a of them, where it's like, oh
my god, we might have to go to Brazil, we
get smoked by the Chiefs. Now we have two straight
(25:04):
divisional games. That's I mean, that's the recipe for being
one to two, zero to three, So pretty terrifying if
you're a Chargers fan.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
I think I'm going to have to ask my sports
performance psychiatrist to do a pop psychiatry examination of Justin
Herbert and why he chokes in these bigger games, because look,
it's happened a couple times in the playoffs, right Think
about that Trevor Lawrence Jags game. Think about that Texans
(25:34):
game last year. Think about primetime games in which this
guy has had the chance to make a real statement
and we were betting on them and it didn't work out. Right,
And so is he destined to be one of those
quarterbacks who's got great regular season stats and piles up
the numbers. How is he going to get over the top,
(25:57):
That's the question. And maybe the answer is give him
a great fucking defense and a great running game and
lessen the pressure in which he has to be making
all the plays, because I do think that's also been
part of the problem, is like they've had terrible coaching,
terrible coordination, and they've put everything on his shoulders because
he's so talented.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Yeah, no, it's a it's a tough situation.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Denver Broncos. This is a team simon plus three twenty
five in the Division, fifteen to one in the Conference,
thirty to one in the Super Bowl, nine and a
half wins total projections. You like the Broncos better than
the Chargers. I think if I'm gleaning anything from our conversations,
if you had to choose the value between the two,
(26:46):
my sense is it would be with Denver in some capacity.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Yeah. This is another number though that I've been hitting
it from the day it came out that it's moved
too much now the division a lot. So if it
was still plus four hundred plus four fifty like it
was to me, that would have been when it was
crazy value like that was just insane. The pros have
been hitting this one, and I think the public annow
started coming on because you know, I love Nick Wright,
(27:13):
but he moves numbers, whether he realized it or not.
And as soon as I saw him talking up Denver
and how it's one of his favorite teams, I was like, oh, okay,
this is a problem, and I see Cowhard doing it, it
goes Okay, there's a problem. All the guys on Fox
FOS one are loving this guy. They're getting viewed by
millions of people. A lot of these people bet they're
gonna start moving this number. So the Division A lots
have moved a lot, they're conference eyes have moved a lot,
(27:35):
and the super boads have come down. You could do
it if you want to. To me, there's no value
there and I just I can't rep my head around
bone Knicks being in that same level as Alan Lamar
and Mahomes Like, if when you're thinking about betting him
to win the conference or the super Bowl, can you
get there? Can you get there with your money and
(27:57):
knowing that that's gonna be a really tough decision when
they do play because you will be the dog. So
it's gonna be a little tougher for you to hedge
in that position when he plays those guys in the playoffs,
if you are taking a position on him to win
this super Bowl or the conference. So you know, love
this team because of the defense and the head coach,
and then you think about what he's done with bon Knicks,
and we talked about it when we talk about, you know,
(28:18):
teams we love coming of the season. That's how you
know if I love Denver is that if there's anything
in there left that he can ring out and keep approving,
he will do that with bon Nicks, Like that's what
makes Sean Paint such a great coaches. He can keep
improving on these quarterbacks and find out their strengths and
making it get better and better. And between the offensive line,
the wide receivers. I know they've drafted some running backs,
(28:39):
like it could all line up for this team for
me in this division, that they could be the one
that finally dethrones my Homes. But that's what sucks that
it's moved so much now that there's another team this
division that now has better odds that are better value
at this point. So yeah, with Denver and bon Knicks,
it's it's high hopes, but I think at the end
(29:01):
of the day, it's just are can you get there?
To think he could pull off the upsets of all
upsets and beat those three that three headed monster at
the end that's waiting for him, Lamar, Josh Allen or Mahomes.
He's gonna have to go through at least two of them.
We know that for a fact, and I think it
breaks really wrong. You might have to go through all three.
So I just can't get there personally. I can't put
my money into that. But if you, if you were
(29:23):
out there and you can find it better than three
seventy five number on this division, aize, I wouldn't hate that.
I got it right there. I got them at plus
three hundred, so plus you know, seventy five, that's that's
a nice value to me. But it's it's to me,
it's just the bets, the win total. Like, if you
believe this team over nine and a half, you gotta
take it like that. The only way they were aggressing
(29:43):
to that number is just because this division hasn't proved
so much. So yeah, just looking at their schedule the
way it's all broken out, I like how it sets
up for them this upcoming season. And the fact that
they end Chiefs Chargers those are their last two games
at the end of the season. That's another way I
like it that to break for this type of team.
So yeah, I just nine and a half when told
(30:03):
that's the only real bet I'd give out on the
show for Denver.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Well, look, you're not wrong with sort of a lot
of the pundits weighing in that the Broncos are getting
a lot of heat, like throughout training camp, through the
training camp circuit, through the NFL, you know, Grapevine, all
the reporters talk to each other, they all start whispering
about which team they like, and just to pull back
(30:28):
the curtain a little bit, that's how these rumblings start.
Forget about betting. But you know, this person said they
were Broncos camp and they heard it from a scout,
and then they tell one of their buddies who's covering
the NFL, and then they start telling other people. A
lot of times, these guys haven't even seen the Broncos practice.
They probably haven't watched their tape. They haven't. Maybe they've
(30:49):
seen a couple of clips on Twitter, but that starts
getting shared as sort of candy throughout the media ecosystem,
and all of sume sudden, the Broncos are one of
those teams that everybody is talking about as being a
Super Bowl contender. I just saw it the other day.
I saw, like, you know, Mike Florio interview on Rich
(31:13):
Eyesen come across my feed and Florio was talking about
are the Broncos one of those teams that can be
a Super Bowl contender? If it wasn't Florida, I apologize
it was somebody and like, you see that, and you know,
that's how these conversations start, and it's why these numbers
start moving. And look, maybe the best way to help
(31:36):
a young quarterback like bo Nicks is the same thing
we just said about. The Chargers run the ball, play
great defense, and the Broncos. The Chargers had a really
good defense. The Broncos had the best defense. They had
the most active defense. They had Patrick certain who was
Defensive Player of the Year, first in sacks, first and
(31:57):
expected points added. Like, they've added Hufanga, the safety from
the Niners. They added dra Greenlaw the linebacker. They used
their first pick on a cornerback, the kid from Texas,
John day Barn. So they're focused on defense and making
(32:18):
sure that defense doesn't regress at all. So I can
see why people are getting excited about him. But yeah,
the numbers have moved.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Yeah, and Zach Allen, another guy on their D line,
might be the next sir down. Like, this guy is
incredibly talented and he's just a workhorse. So you know,
This is like you're asking for the Chiefs offensive line.
The Chiefs still have the best center all of football.
They built around that. They're going to be all right.
The Chiefs always forgot the offensive line Denver. They didn't
(32:48):
really have that grace where they they had a great
offensive line last year for rejecting them. Have another great
offensive line this year, and that to me is gonna
be the key to them. Where you know, bo Nick's
like they talk about him, take on that Josh Allen step.
That's what their hope is, right. They're hoping he becomes
Josh Allen type, a guy who can move throwing the
run like that, strong and run through hits. That's a
lot of weight to put on this kid's shoulder. So yeah,
(33:10):
that that offensive line needs a hold up from last
year to what they are this year. And if bon
Neicks takes that next step, it's all there. I get
why they're being hyped up right now because I saw
weeks like months ago. You know, when I looked at
this team, it was like, okay, Ken, they keep building
on what they build all flash and it all comes
down to the quarterback position and the unknown with bone Knicks,
And like I said, it's I just can't believe we
(33:32):
werely gonna be sitting here a year from now being like, yeah,
he did it. Bon Knicks went to the FC Championship game,
like he beat lamar Ma Homes or Josh allenl Ray
there like it's just it happens. That's why I love
football so much. These these quarterbacks, you see it coming,
but it's hard to believe it beforehand. And we've seen
the flash of bone next year. They they overachieved so
much last year. It's how much are they gonna regressor?
(33:54):
How much are they going to improve? That's the hardestport
trying to measure this team right now because there are
a lot of red flash about them are regressing, but
there's so much good and all starts with their head coach,
and it's like Sean Payton Hall of Fame or offensive genius.
He'll make it work somehow. So that's why I have
faith in this team. I know it's gonna be tough
for people out there, but nine and a half to me,
that's good value on the team. I have at ten
(34:15):
and a half wins, So you know that's that's a
really nice bet for me right now.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
Harball and Peyton like they're doing the same thing, right. Yeah,
they've got great defenses. They're trying to figure out ways
to make the game a little bit easier for their quarterback.
They're going to go about it in different ways, right,
Payton's going to be more creative. He's going to think
about more of the short passing game. He's going to
try to take advantage of what Bonix is really good at.
(34:39):
Harbaugh is just going to try to run the ball
and not put it all on Herbert's shoulders. Let's not
discount the other coach in this division. There are three
Super Bowl winning coaches in this division. Jim Harbaugh is
the only one who is not a super per Bowl
(35:00):
winning coach. Pete Carroll is the new coach of the
Las Vegas Raiders. Fifteen to one to win the division,
fifty to one to win the conference, one hundred to
one to win the Super Bowl. Six and a half
is the win total. I'm curious. I will tell you
(35:24):
right now when I made my list of favorite division bets.
I'm not going to tell you where the Raiders over
win total was, but it's on the list. Let me
give you before I ask your opinion. Let me give
(35:44):
you a stat. I looked this up and I was stunned.
In his career with the Patriots, the Seahawks, and the
New York Jets, how many times, Simon has Pete Carroll
had fewer than seven wins? And remember, when you take
on a new team, whether it's the Jets, the Patriots
or the Seahawks, you're generally taking over a shitty team.
(36:07):
You're in a bad situation. So three times he's taken
over a new team, how many times in his career
any season has he won fewer than seven games?
Speaker 2 (36:17):
I mean that Jets and Patriot as a little before
my time. I know, obviously he coached there, and I
know that the Beast Quake was a seven and nine seasons,
so he gets it feels get someone on a lot.
So I don't know, probably less than three times once
once there.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
You go his first season as a head coach with
the New York Jets nineteen ninety four, and by the way,
before your time, of course, not before my time. When
I was a young reporter for Sports Illustrated, I had
to go interview Pete Carroll at Foxborough when he was
coaching the Patriots. And you know, he's so hippy dippy
(36:57):
kind of thing, even though he's super intense and competitive. Uh,
We're sitting there and I'm sitting with him, and you know,
there's a very famous author named Dan Millman who has
written these books that are sort of spiritual in nature
and about improvement and finding your zen. He just wanted
(37:21):
to talk to me about Dan Milman. He's like, you
know Dan Milman. I'm like, I don't know him. He goes,
let me tell you about Dan Milman. And that's when
we end up talking about the entire time I interviewed him.
Simon one season with less than seven wins in nineteen
ninety four, thirty one years ago, you were four years old.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
I didn't exist.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
I mean, you didn't exist thirty nine years ago. Thirty
one years ago, oh oh thirty one.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
Hey, By the way, I got a Frindy story today.
I'm not going to tell the whole story because I
want to save it for when we talk about the
NFC East. Because I hung out with some guys here
in West Herford the other night who are massive Eagles fans,
and they were they listened to the show, and Uh,
(38:18):
we're standing in the kitchen hanging out for a minute,
and one of the one of the guys says to me, Yeah,
I love I love the way you guys broke down
the the Eagles and the Chiefs Super Bowl. That younger
guy on your show, I'm like, younger guy. That's that's
how we're framing this whole thing, is the younger guy.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
He's just staying in fact, Chad, when I look at
this Raiders team, you looked like I was a crazy person.
I said, I they were my seventh team in the playoffs,
And I got where you're coming from, because it's hard
to hear Raiders playoffs in any sense.
Speaker 1 (38:54):
Totally with you, by the way.
Speaker 2 (38:56):
Right right right now, Like now that you've like looked
into a little bit more, you see where I'm coming from.
Where it's like, can they thread that needle? And that's
gonna be the hardest part is, like we just talk
about Chargers in Denver are so talented, all four of
these teams around making a playoffs, someone's gotta be the
odd man out. And that's why I'm going That's why
I went with the Chargers, And it really is just
about value and that's at the end of the day,
(39:17):
that's where we're trying to bet here, and we've talked
about all the time there's always that team that goes
from worse to first or to a playoff team, and
last year we had it with Washington, and you could
say we had it with Denver hell In this division,
like you know, these teams are just a very low
view by the public and not on people's radar. I
feel like the Raiders is gonna start popping on people's
(39:38):
radar here in the next couple of weeks. I feel
That's why I wanted to get ahead of it weeks
ago and I gave them out as a playoff team
because they're a team that people kind of forget that
it's just a whole different regime there and that, yes,
their secondary, you could argue, is the worst in football.
I cannot fight you on that because I've I've dove
into it too, and they're they're they're They're Raiders. Defen
(40:00):
fense could have major issues, but when you break down
this offense with Genty, with the fact that you know
they're not the offense line is not terrible. That obviously
needs a little bit of improvement, but you know, between
Gentee and Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that. I
love that they have an offensive guy that's gonna knows
how to get the best players of the ball. So,
Gina Smith, you know, I told you I was saving
(40:22):
this for the season long. He's a different, totally different
player in dome games. He's way above five hundred is
against the spread. It's like about you know, seven hit
rate and against the spread in indoor dome games. So
it's like type of scenario where he's always outperformed with
book makers are per projection of him indoor games in
(40:44):
the general public. So I already love that coming in
where it's like, Okay, he spent his whole career in
outdoor stadiums Now he's inside in a dome game. And
you know, sure he could get some tough weather games.
I know the end of the season, you know they
are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's
in door actually, But there's just a bunch of things
(41:06):
align up for them that they're always gonna be in
these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense. They're
gonna running or so fifteen to one division odds, jad
I bet it. This opened at seventeen to one it's
been bet down at fifteen to one. It's it's too
too big to me, this is a team that could
shock the world just because of all the veteran presence
they have. And you just talk about Pete Carroll like that,
(41:26):
to me is such a game changer that this guy
the players of the play form. He wills these guys
get the best out of them, and I just can't
see them slipping below that. So yeah, another favorite win
total for me, division wise, six and a half. I
love even morn Now you hit me at that stat
about Pete Carroll like that just lines up for my
projection of this team being a whole new identity and
it all really starts with Gino. But obviously I don't
(41:49):
think people get this kid genty. He could be an
absolute game wrecker, Like if he is what we are
projecting him to be, which is a Saquan light like
that type of built right, He's all thighs like people
realize Saikwan Barkley is, like he plays at two forty
two forty of just muscle, like I'm severely overweight. If
you've met me, I'm probably forty pounds. Heavery that I
(42:10):
could imagine being two forty of muscle, you know, running
around like he is. And that's what genty is. Genty
is a little guy who's thick. He's like two thirty
two twenty five playing weight and it's all in his thighs.
I just love the way he's built the NFL. And
this is the exact type of Snaire we want, right,
It's the execul Elliott when he first came in. You
want those first four years with these high rookie draft
(42:31):
picks of just excellence. Right. He's still young enough to
run on that weight. So yeah, long winded answer, Chad.
I think you can tell it hyped up on him
about this Raiders team, but it just feels like it's
all lined up for them to be the sleeper of
the AFC this season. And uh, six and a half
just disrespectful line to this team. But I think again,
because it's the third division, the general public is just
not buying it on them. But you you knocked out
(42:53):
of the park. I got him an eight and a
half wins, So this is my biggest rescreptancy so far.
We've done them the show two wins lower than they
should be. I love this number for this range team.
Speaker 1 (43:01):
It's it's the division, but it's also public perception. This
is a public perception game, right And I see looking
at the schedule, three better than fifty to fifty games, Titans, Giants,
Browns all at home. I see two fifty to fifty games,
both at home, Jags and Bears. I think Week five
(43:22):
at the Colts is a wild card at this point,
we will see, but it could be by the time
they're playing the Colts, they are a significantly better team
than the Colts are. That could be six wins right there.
They are three point dogs in Week one at New England.
That'll be a fascinating game. Right, So seven games right
(43:44):
there where you can feel very good to fifty to
fifty better than even maybe chance they could win. And
then just becomes a question can Pete Carroll Congino Smith?
Can they be savvy enough to pull off an upset
as they often are able to do in the division
(44:07):
at home against the Broncos, against the Chargers, against the Chiefs.
So if we were to recap here, my favorite division
bet from this division Raiders over six and a half.
Full stop, that's it.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
Raids over six and a half.
Speaker 1 (44:27):
I don't hate it, which do you like, what's yours?
Speaker 2 (44:32):
Then?
Speaker 1 (44:32):
Is it Raiders over six and a half? Is it Raiders?
Speaker 2 (44:35):
I'm gonna go with my biggest investment, my personal money
is no doubt the Chiefs divisional odds, like I've just
been hitting that one pretty heavy, but when total wise, yeah,
it's not close. Raiders for this division is my biggest one.
Second is Denver obviously really love that number as well.
And then the Chiefs. I just every year I'm betting it.
(44:58):
The only fear is they're going to have a ten
and seven year, Like I don't know if it's gonna
be this year or they'll you know, eleven and six. Eventually,
their their division is going to catch them in these
games because last year was just we talked about it,
which is so fluky. In the one score games, you know,
everything went right, even like going back to that Bengals game,
you know Joe Burrow had the ball with the lead
with about three minutes to go on a third and
(45:19):
seven and didn't read a hot read and took a sack.
Where it's like that game was lined up perfectly in
the win and I think it was fourth and twenty
they get a pass interference to get them in a
field goal range for the Chiefs to win. Like if
you go back to the last year, they had so
many these weird freaking games they stole, so they're just
I did bet their win total. But of those three,
it's the third one. It's I like Raiders first Denver,
(45:40):
then the Chiefs, and then once again nothing for me
on the Chargers team. I assume the same for you.
Speaker 1 (45:45):
Chad Yep, zero couldn't do it. My list was Raiders
over six and a half Chiefs Division but parleying it,
and then Broncos Division. Even though it's much lower than
it's been, it's still better to me than what you're
getting with the Chargers. But Raiders six and a half
(46:06):
was my favorite.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
All right, just sprinkle a little in fifteen to one
Raiders just for the show. They're a little.
Speaker 1 (46:14):
Donny Scosh and Raiders.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
It could be fun. End this season.
Speaker 1 (46:17):
I love it. I'm in. I'm all in. Simon, listen,
the favorites will return. Let me recap, let me recap.
We just did it though. Raiders over six and a
half Chiefs divisional odds for Simon, Broncos divisional odds for
both of us. Although it's less value Raiders fifteen to
one to win the conference. All right, The Favorites will
(46:40):
return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Over
YouTube page. When we talk n f C West, that's
a burn burner of a of a division. We got
a lot of controversy there. I know me and Simon
are going to be on different sides of two of
the top teams. Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want feedback as a gift until next time,
(47:02):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
(47:23):
hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network,
continuing our division by division previews. Let's welcome in my
co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
professional better Simon hunter Head. O's amit, Chad.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
I'm so happy that we have gotten through the Hall
of Fame game. The Cam Newton Jalen Hurts discourse has
been left in July. We are onto August with the
dumb football talk has moved to just guys in practice,
And I have to know, how are you feeling about
Caleb Williams. I mean, this has just been insanity these
(00:54):
last seventy two hours. Where's Chad Milman, the Bears fan
head at right now?
Speaker 1 (00:59):
I am so so it's funny. I forgot. I feel
like I mentioned it in one of our Western Division previews,
something about the Bears and who they're going to be
playing and what they challenge. Are they a challenge on
(01:19):
the schedule? And I think it's the Raiders actually, And look,
my head is spinning at every second is a temperature
check on Caleb Williams our friend Colin Cowhard. It feels
like because he's now a Chicago a citizen of the
(01:41):
suburbs of Chicago. He is talking about Caleb in every show,
and my entire feed of whatever I check on social
media is Caleb socks. Look at this throw by Caleb
Caleb socks. Look at this catch by Luther Burden, Caleb sucks.
(02:01):
Look at this catch by Roma dunees A Like I'm
so all over the map. The Bears are disappointed. The
Bears are happy. Ben Johnson takes it on himself if
the team isn't prepared, Caleb is progressing at the rate
they want him to progress. The whole thing is mind boggling,
and I don't know what to do about it other
than be really glad that I bet the Packers at
(02:23):
twenty something to want to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
I told you this was gonna happen in two weeks ago.
I said, this guy's offensive system is really complicated, and
I wouldn't pay attention to any Caleb Williams talk until
about two weeks before the season, just because I knew
it was just gonna be awful like this. It's just
the way it is when you bring a new system,
when you've gone from literally having the easiest coaching staff
that really didn't care. To a perfectionist that wants to
(02:47):
run his way, there's gonna be growing pains. And my
favorite thing is just Bears media where I saw a
clip of a Bears guy saying how Caleb's regressed, and
it was him taking a snaff under center, dropping back
and it was a free runner in his face and
Caleb threw that like over a guy's head or to
some guy's feet, which was the only play to make
other than take a sack. And this guy's talking about
how he's regressed, and it's just like this is this
(03:10):
is August. This is my favorite part of it, where
it's just like if guys have different latencies like these
different media members don't like Asians, so they don't like
these players. There's different little things like that people need
to be aware of. So yeah, I love this time
of year. Every little thing in camp to me is
the best, even the holdouts, like people are sick of
the drama. I love it all because it's all theater, right,
that's the most fun part about it, and the fact that
(03:32):
it's in my division. I mean, this is the best.
This is literally my dream scenario now two division foes.
Top players are holding out. It doesn't get much better
for me as an Eagles fan.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Well, look, I had the strangest experience, and we're going
to get to the AFC West and I as of
this morning, I was breaking down practice video of Josh Simmons,
the new likely left tackle and rookie from Ohio State,
going to up against Chris Jones for the Chiefs. I
had the strange brands last night. I'm sitting at dinner
(04:02):
with my wife and we're realizing that our younger son is,
as of today, twenty three days away from going to college.
Stacey and I were having dinner together last night. He
was out, and as we're talking a we realized when
(04:23):
he leaves, there might not be any reason for us
to talk to each other anymore. She will be doing
her thing, I'm doing my thing. There's no sort of
structure to make us come down and eat at the
same time anymore, because we're both busy with life and
the kid was the thing that made us eat together.
But all of a sudden, she started asking me about betting.
(04:46):
She was like, so, if a team is minus seven,
they have to win by more than seven for you
to win your bet I want to be like I
was so thrilled she was engaged and interested, and I've
didn't want to be like, dude, I've been doing this
for twenty seven years at this point, now, after books,
(05:12):
after giving up on ESPN and starting freaking Action Network,
after creating a life that is entirely around this industry,
now you're asking me about what it means if a
team is a seven point favorite. But I didn't. I
patiently explained, and in the end she's like, I don't know.
Man doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. And
(05:32):
that's where we landed.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Sounds like she's dipping the toes and she wants to
get on the action. So I like, it's.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
Maybe you know what it is? Actually maybe on Sundays
she knows I'm going to be miserable without my kid,
so she's thinking, how can she sort of improve our
collective lives, because if I'm miserable all day with the
betting and he's gone, she might want to be helpful
in some way.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
It's true.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
At one point on the show, Simon, we got to
dig in deep on my conversation with the sports performance
psychiatrist that I had to break down how I make
decisions and how I feel during actual games that I've
bet on. I know, I told you I was going
to do this for the book. I had the conversation
(06:20):
the other day fascinating preview of what we're going to
do to come. We're going to go through every team
in the AFC in the NFC. As you all know,
today we are talking about the AFC West, home of
the best franchise in football over the last half decade,
in the Kansas City Chiefs. Much as it pains a
friend Matt Mitchell. Also, Simon Hunter might argue that a
(06:41):
team that's won a Super Bowl and been to a
Super Bowl could compete with that mantle. But let the
Patriots dominance in the East. Our generation to go, they've
relied on a week division full of discharrae. Is that
changing with Sean Payton and Jim Harbut now coaching teams
in the AFC West. We will discuss. Simon First, one
(07:03):
up Kens City Chiefs Division odds minus one, twenty conference
odds plus three twenty five, super Bowl plus eight fifty
and kind of dropping. It had been at plus seven
point fifty win total eleven and a half. I said,
at the top. As I was doing research this morning,
my primary area that I wanted to get some answers
(07:27):
on is have they solved their left tackle issue?
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (07:31):
That is what cost them the Super Bowl last year?
That was a huge issue for them all season long.
It has been an issue for them going past the
couple of year, going back to the past couple of years.
They drafted Josh Shimmons out of Ohio State. They signed
Jalen Moore from the Niners, both of them to compete
for the left tackle spot. Simmons has clearly taken the
lead and has taken all the first team reps in practice.
(07:54):
Like I said, there was a video of him practicing
taking his first snaps against Chris Jones when he was
lying up on the outside and like you just made
a know. You know the writers who cover these teams
freaking out because he anchored and dropped his hips when
Jones tried to get leverage. Obviously, we are going to
(08:15):
love the Chiefs at plus eight fifty. I don't think
they've solved everything. They still have receiver issues. As much
as Rashi Rice has been dominating, he's still may be suspended.
If you're worth these in concussion protocol. Hollywood Brown injured
his ankle last week. He still hasn't been practicing. Give
me your thoughts to your signing.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
We're very blessed and lucky to live in a time
where the Chiefs exist. If you're a sports better, if
you're a fan of football, maybe you're sick of one.
But as a sports better, it's just been it's the dream.
This is like the dream team to bet on because
you're investing money here in August and you know it's
going to come down to the final game in the
AFC Championship Game. Mahomes has played seven full seasons, Chad.
(08:59):
We all know the stats, five Super Bowls, seven conference
championship games. So it's like he's gonna get you the
AFC Championship Game. He might lose it, right, Like we
keep talking about Lamar Josh Allen. They are in the
football world. They are so doe mathematically, Like to keep
repeating what the Chiefs have done, it just doesn't happen.
Like people can go back and watch those Patriots teams.
(09:21):
They always hit rainom bumps in the road, right, there's
always like Brady incredible run. You know he wasn't doing
the starter's career. It just this isn't normal, Like there's
always going to be the next better team or the
team that the luck breaks their way. And you know
last year it was an anomaly once again where they
went fifteen to one in the regular season. None of
(09:41):
that makes sense, Like this is not a team that
should be going fifteen to one, and you know, resting
starters the end the season, like they were that dominant
in one score games. They had a ton of luck.
But everyone knows it's it's luck, but it's also the
coaching staff and mahomes, like it's just that combo that
they get these teams in these fourth quarters and they
get their death crip ball them. So plus eight fifty,
(10:02):
Like again, we'll talk about it. People know what I
like to do here when these odds are blow ten
to one, I tend to do matchups. So if you
want to do Chiefs first Rams, Chiefs first Eagles, you know,
those are positions I've taken at this point. But yeah,
this division odds, the fact that the highest any book
has had is minus one twenty, there's still some one
tens out there. You have to love that value on
(10:22):
this team this year, and it should be what it is, right.
I do get why the number is this low, because
you know, we talked months ago, this is the best
coaching division all of football. Like they have all these
old heads, all these Hall of famers that just know
how to do it right. And these are the type
of guys that you can give them shit and they'll
stirt turn out the gold and it's like, you know,
(10:43):
last year Hardball was a perfect example that he brought
in his DC coordinator from Michigan, totally revamped that defense,
Toty Rove, vamped the offense with Greg Rohman, the Charge
were a playoff team. You know, pretty damn good. Like
it was one of Herbert's best years. You could say
Sam could be said expected for or what happened with
bow Nicks and Sean Payton. Now you're looking at the
(11:03):
Chiefs though, and minus one ten for this division chat,
So I don't know about you. This is a number.
Right away, I ran to the window and took They
were ten to one, no joke. They were ten to
one Super Bowl odds a couple of months ago. So
that's a number I've been betting as well. Now that
it's down to plus eight fifty, you can still do it.
But like I said, I I'd rather bet the matchups
where we get fifty to one like I had last
year sixty five to one. That's to me, ned's better
(11:26):
tying your money up for six seven months here. But
if your biggest question right now, chat is the receiver position,
I think you're gonna be okay like worthy. To me,
he's got a ton of talent. I think he's a stud.
Rice might miss four games, that's not a problem for
this team. This team just literally does not care about
September or October. Like. This is a November, December, January,
(11:47):
February team, So not a problem to me. Kelsey is
under a new phase of his career. He's more of
a blocking tight end at this point. Damn good blocking
tight end, I might say. So. To me, it's it's
all there for them to win this division again, you know,
be the one on two or three seed. We don't
care if they're on the ruin in the playoffs. It's
just it's Mahomes in the playoffs. So yeah, to me,
(12:07):
it's a great time to be a football fan like
we are so blessed. Is it better have this type
of team where we know me and Chad know the deal.
If it's over three and a half, we fade them
during the regular season. If it's under three in a
field goal, if you're catching points as of dog mahomes,
it's simple. We just go by the book. So yeah,
it's it's it's a fun team to bet on. End.
I get where the general public is sick of them,
but nothing's gonna change. They're great drafting teams. So yeah,
(12:30):
minus minus one ten division odds probably be my best
bet for this team this division.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
What about We've talked a little bit about parlaying them
because they're a minus number with other teams like the Texans,
who are a little bit of plus number to win
the AFC South. Are there parlay combinations that you've been
looking at and thinking about with the minus.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Number, Yeah, like I have them. I don't. I never
go above three less. I'm going really small in the number.
So say I'm putting four to five figures in these parlays,
the most I'll go is three, and if I'm really
going large, I only go two. Like right now, if
I'm going just AFC. My two favorite teams at parlay,
it's going to be the Chiefs and the Bills, like
(13:16):
there's just isn't a world. I don't say any of
these teams, and I hope people were like, well, that's lazy.
It happens every year. That's why I love it. Every
year I go to the books and I've made this
bet since Mahomes. You know, I didn't do it his
first year. I didn't think you'd be good, but it
was kind of a weird thing where I still really
did believe in Herbert at that time. This is a
(13:36):
little different where you know, we're at the point now
of I just Josh Allen's career. I think he's in
the prime. Mahomes, I think he's in a prime. So
if you're looking for very lazy safe, to me, that's
the safest one. Where I do love Lamar. We'll get
to the Ravens. I love them this year. There is
a little bit of risk with that, just because of
Lamar's playing style. We've seen him go down where Josh
(13:57):
Allen just seems to hold up. So yeah, but when
you want to stretch it, Chad like, yeah, we're going
to get to it. I love, obviously the Eagles for
their division. They're a team that another team that's just
I think above and beyond their their foes and their division.
And you know, when you go through all the different divisions,
it's last year kind of felt like it was really easy, right.
It kind of felt like we all knew Detroit was
(14:19):
going to win their division. It wasn't that easy. Chat
It came down to that last game against the Vikings,
and I had to make a huge hedge because I
was I can't believe it looking back, but I was
scared of Sam Darnom that last game that he could
pull the upside off and win that division. So that's
why I like taking these positions, Like you know, you're
getting three to one, two to one on these divisional odds.
It's just so I can hedg you at the end
(14:40):
of the season. It's easier to take positions rather than
Bettnam straight.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
You know what's crazy. You mentioned Mahomes his first full
season playing was twenty eighteen. We're going to talk about
the Cardinals and Kyler Murray later this week in the
NFC West preview. Kyler Murray's first season with two thousand nineteen,
And if you think about those two quarterbacks in context,
(15:04):
like Patrick Mahomes feels like he is a dominant player
who has been at his peak and living in his
peak since the day he started. And Kyler Murray, who's
only one year behind in terms of full seasons played,
feels like every year we are waiting for him to peak.
Even though he had that injury. Patrick Mahomes had injury
too in his career that forced them to miss basically
(15:28):
the rest of the season. It's just astonishing to put
in context how quickly Patrick Mahomes was Hall of Fame
worthy and how long he has performed at that peak
level in the NFL. It's remarkable. Like I'm looking at
his stats right now, Okay, first full season five thousand yards,
(15:53):
second full season four thousand yards, third full season four
thousand yards, fourth four thousand yards, fifth five thousand yards,
sixth four thousand yards. Last year was the first year
he's been a full time starter that he hasn't had
four thousand yards, and he finished at thirty nine twenty eight.
It was also his lowest number of passing touchdowns since
(16:18):
twenty nineteen. I think that's the year he got hurt,
and so like, even at his little drop off, he's
still playing at such a high level. It's frightening how
good this guy is.
Speaker 2 (16:34):
Yeah, and against that's the crazy part you just said
statistically that was his worst season. That last year was
the year to get this team, and they were unbeatable
and they had the one season they had home throughout,
they had home playoffs. So that's why it's like, we're
gonna get to the Bills al hip Tim about the
Bills team, it's just brutal. When you got the big
bad Chiefs on your side of the conference. It's just
(16:54):
they break all the rules. He's the ultimate cheek coach.
I just broke it down where it's like people are like,
well he's regressing, goes on his deep throws. He doesn't
beat you with deep throws anymore. He beats you one
yard at a time, one or two dump offs at
a time, like he just he's so it's it's just
right at a different level of Mahomes at this point,
like he doesn't need to beat you downfield. He can
(17:14):
just think and dunk you. Twenty five thirty yard drop
thirty play drives just wear these teams out, and that's
why come the fourth quarter, these teams are mentally exhausted.
Where the Chiefs hit their strit it's just it's truly
incredible watching them as a fan and someone that breaks
down the film. It's just they're so well coached, so
smartly put together. It's just and that's the best part
is everyone's last memories, him having the worst game of
(17:37):
his career in the Super Bowl, of them falling apart.
Now they have the third best odds in the AFC
because of that. It's just that's why I love betting.
It's just the general public. They like the new, They
like the new stuff. They don't like the old and news.
So it's it's a fun team to bet on right now,
just because the value is just insane.
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Los Angeles Chargers plus three hundred to win the division,
eleven to one to win the conference, twenty five to
one to win the Super Bowl. In total nine and
a half. We know what this team wants to do.
They want to run the ball, they want to be physical,
they want to play great defense. Right They signed Mikai
Becton from the Eagles to fortify the offensive line. They
(18:17):
re signed Rashaun Slater, They have Joe Allton. The interior
of their offensive line was the challenge last year. Remember
so many games where Justin Herbert was just under pressure
immediately from the interior pressure. They drafted a Mario and
Hampton at running back. They did nothing to improve their
(18:37):
receiving core. And maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe the way
that Jim Harbaugh wants to play it and Greg Roman,
the offensive coordinary, wants to play it, they just want
to focus on running the ball and play an elite defense,
which they did do last year first in points allowed,
fifth and EPA ninth in defensive DVOA first in red
zone touchdown percentage allowed first and touchdown allowed in all
(19:00):
to those situations. But let's talk about Justin Herbert, because
when we did the quarterback show, I had him in
the top ten. You did not. So let's talk about
where we're head is at and how that makes you
think about this team and any of the value or
lack of value Super Bowl adds, win total division, odds, conferences.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Yeah, I guessaid that show. We weren't doing a rank
on who is the best athlete, who is the best
thrower of the ball where it gets the most stats.
To me, that's all meaningless. If the goal of football
is to win Super Bowl, if the goal of playing
football is to win playoff games, and then win the
Super Bowl. Herbert is not a top ten quarterback in
any measurement. This guy has struggled in these big moments,
(19:46):
and you know, people will make the many excuses for
him because that's just the way society is now. Like
if someone likes a player like they like him, they
will make so many excuses that make your headspin where
it's like everything you're saying it's just bullshit. It's we
have the tape, We've watched him play and him struggle
in these big moments. Is Herbert like that in the
regular season. No, He's pretty good. That's why people get
(20:06):
sucked in. They believe in it. And I just noticed
during his career in these big games, these tight games
where he would get tight, he would struggle. That has
not changed and Horrball. You know, maybe he can cure
it because this kid has all the time in the world.
And me and you both agree on that. I've liked
the moves they made this offseason. I get why they
didn't go like the attack in the warbesceiar position. You've
(20:29):
invested in Latin McConkie and you let you invested in
Quentin Johnston, Like those are high draft picks that you've
invested big picks in two, they don't need to attack
war receui position. Now if they go out and get
Keenan Allen, I would love that. Keen now is your
third receiver, a veteran coming back and playing for his team.
That to me sounds like a logical move. I know
it's money. That's money mudding up the water right now
because he wants more than they're at than they're given
(20:51):
to him. That's okay, I get it. But in a
week or two, if they get Keenan Allen here, that
to me is a big upgrade to this team because
we've seen it without a feeling on Carolina, like there's
these veterans, you still have gas in the tank that
just on third down, second down there, you know you
can rely on them. Herbert will use that to his benefit, right,
he will use Keenan Allen. Now we're talking about Hampton.
To me, is the biggest edition. Like they're they planned.
(21:13):
They had offers in that first round pick to trade back,
like they were getting really good offers to move back,
and they stayed there and took a running back in
the first round. And this is a team that we
just talked about their identity is run first. And you know,
we don't talk much fantasy here, but this is a
guy I'm jacking in all my fantasy football League's. Like
when historically, when a team takes a stance on taking
(21:33):
them the first round, first round on a running back
like we saw Detroit Gibbs, they're gonna give them touches.
Even if they're splitting carries, they're gonna give them touches.
It doesn't matter where they take them the first They're
gonna get that player touches. Because that's such a high investment.
You're kind of making a statement as a team passing
on I mean, we just talked about like that guy Simmons.
He would be a pretty good add to this team.
(21:54):
They passed on him. I mean, I don't know if
you've heard about John Campbell with the Eagles. He's been
a stud for the Eagles. They passed on him again
for a running back of this spot. So to me,
I kind of like, what their identity is gonna stick with?
I want? I want, honestly didn't want to fade this
team because I'm I just love the other team's division.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
You really want to fade this team?
Speaker 2 (22:12):
I did, but like the more, I like, everything you're
saying is a shock to me right now? Yeah, I can't.
I can't give other people is under on this nine
and a half to me, that's price right just because
I have him at nine and eight this season, my model,
does you know? That's not enough value to really take it?
Where horriball to me. I don't think my model understands
that he can. He can steal you one or two
this year. That's just that's how good of a coach
(22:34):
he is to me. So if you do want to
play the over, I totally getting it. I get why
people love this team just because Herbert, just like we
talked about Lamar and Allen, he will have a breakthrough season.
What is that season though? Is that him beating Houston finally?
Like it's just like we've been waiting every year, We've
been waiting right for him. I mean, here they are
once again plus three hundred wins division. Can he do it?
(22:57):
I don't know if he can because now this division,
to me, Chad is the best it's ever been. So
that's the hesitation for me betting any of these, any
of these numbers with this team, like eleven on one conference,
there's other team's division i'd rather bet. Like to me,
there's just no value there. So yeah, the Chargers, I
love what they've done coming to this season, how they're
setting up for the future. But I'm still of the
(23:18):
mindset that the last regime was so bad. They've they've
ruined this team so bad. It so many ways. There's
still to me, a year or two away from being
a true contender. So I'm not gonna invest any money
on them or against them at this point. I'm just
I'm not losing money on betting their underhere. I just
it's too it's too it's too risky with Horrible because
he can just steal those games. So nine and a
half I think is properly priced.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
Right when you go through the schedules of these teams,
whether it's the Broncos or the Chargers, and want to
talk about the Broncos next, you believe enough in the coaches, yeah,
that you think, Okay, they're going to steal a win
and we're going to talk about this with Pete Peril too,
and the Raiders. They could steal a win or two
in the division that gets them over the time. And
(24:00):
because the division is so competitive they will be able
to when they're playing teams outside the division, they're not
going to be playing teams that are as good, and
so they're going to benefit from playing such a competitive
in division schedule, but it also means they might be
at risk for losing more games than they otherwise would.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Oh yeah, I mean week one, like you're like yours
on a division they go to Brazil to play the
Chiefs week one, which I think is good for them,
like that is like kind of thing where you could
steal that game, But then they have two straight division
games after that, Like that, that's tough. You start three
division games to start the season, and when you just
talk on a really tough division and you know you're
going on the road to Brazil coming back, and then
(24:43):
it's like, okay, now we have to face the Raiders
in Denver. It's like that's a tough start to the season.
Three straight divisional games. But like you said, if they
could somehow steal it, go three and know to start
the season in their division, maybe this is final the
year for Herbert and all breaks right. But that's also
terrifying if you're a of them, where it's like, oh
my god, we might have to go to Brazil, we
get smoked by the Chiefs. Now we have two straight
(25:04):
divisional games. That's I mean, that's the recipe for being
one to two, zero to three, So pretty terrifying if
you're a Chargers fan.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
I think I'm going to have to ask my sports
performance psychiatrist to do a pop psychiatry examination of Justin
Herbert and why he chokes in these bigger games, because look,
it's happened a couple times in the playoffs, right Think
about that Trevor Lawrence Jags game. Think about that Texans
(25:34):
game last year. Think about primetime games in which this
guy has had the chance to make a real statement
and we were betting on them and it didn't work out. Right,
And so is he destined to be one of those
quarterbacks who's got great regular season stats and piles up
the numbers. How is he going to get over the top,
(25:57):
That's the question. And maybe the answer is give him
a great fucking defense and a great running game and
lessen the pressure in which he has to be making
all the plays, because I do think that's also been
part of the problem, is like they've had terrible coaching,
terrible coordination, and they've put everything on his shoulders because
he's so talented.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
Yeah, no, it's a it's a tough situation.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
Denver Broncos. This is a team simon plus three twenty
five in the Division, fifteen to one in the Conference,
thirty to one in the Super Bowl, nine and a
half wins total projections. You like the Broncos better than
the Chargers. I think if I'm gleaning anything from our conversations,
if you had to choose the value between the two,
(26:46):
my sense is it would be with Denver in some capacity.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Yeah. This is another number though that I've been hitting
it from the day it came out that it's moved
too much now the division a lot. So if it
was still plus four hundred plus four fifty like it
was to me, that would have been when it was
crazy value like that was just insane. The pros have
been hitting this one, and I think the public annow
started coming on because you know, I love Nick Wright,
(27:13):
but he moves numbers, whether he realized it or not.
And as soon as I saw him talking up Denver
and how it's one of his favorite teams, I was like, oh, okay,
this is a problem, and I see Cowhard doing it, it
goes Okay, there's a problem. All the guys on Fox
FOS one are loving this guy. They're getting viewed by
millions of people. A lot of these people bet they're
gonna start moving this number. So the Division A lots
have moved a lot, they're conference eyes have moved a lot,
(27:35):
and the super boads have come down. You could do
it if you want to. To me, there's no value
there and I just I can't rep my head around
bone Knicks being in that same level as Alan Lamar
and Mahomes Like, if when you're thinking about betting him
to win the conference or the super Bowl, can you
get there? Can you get there with your money and
(27:57):
knowing that that's gonna be a really tough decision when
they do play because you will be the dog. So
it's gonna be a little tougher for you to hedge
in that position when he plays those guys in the playoffs,
if you are taking a position on him to win
this super Bowl or the conference. So you know, love
this team because of the defense and the head coach,
and then you think about what he's done with bon Knicks,
and we talked about it when we talk about, you know,
(28:18):
teams we love coming of the season. That's how you
know if I love Denver is that if there's anything
in there left that he can ring out and keep approving,
he will do that with bon Nicks, Like that's what
makes Sean Paint such a great coaches. He can keep
improving on these quarterbacks and find out their strengths and
making it get better and better. And between the offensive line,
the wide receivers. I know they've drafted some running backs,
(28:39):
like it could all line up for this team for
me in this division, that they could be the one
that finally dethrones my Homes. But that's what sucks that
it's moved so much now that there's another team this
division that now has better odds that are better value
at this point. So yeah, with Denver and bon Knicks,
it's it's high hopes, but I think at the end
(29:01):
of the day, it's just are can you get there?
To think he could pull off the upsets of all
upsets and beat those three that three headed monster at
the end that's waiting for him, Lamar, Josh Allen or Mahomes.
He's gonna have to go through at least two of them.
We know that for a fact, and I think it
breaks really wrong. You might have to go through all three.
So I just can't get there personally. I can't put
my money into that. But if you, if you were
(29:23):
out there and you can find it better than three
seventy five number on this division, aize, I wouldn't hate that.
I got it right there. I got them at plus
three hundred, so plus you know, seventy five, that's that's
a nice value to me. But it's it's to me,
it's just the bets, the win total. Like, if you
believe this team over nine and a half, you gotta
take it like that. The only way they were aggressing
(29:43):
to that number is just because this division hasn't proved
so much. So yeah, just looking at their schedule the
way it's all broken out, I like how it sets
up for them this upcoming season. And the fact that
they end Chiefs Chargers those are their last two games
at the end of the season. That's another way I
like it that to break for this type of team.
So yeah, I just nine and a half when told
(30:03):
that's the only real bet I'd give out on the
show for Denver.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
Well, look, you're not wrong with sort of a lot
of the pundits weighing in that the Broncos are getting
a lot of heat, like throughout training camp, through the
training camp circuit, through the NFL, you know, Grapevine, all
the reporters talk to each other, they all start whispering
about which team they like, and just to pull back
(30:28):
the curtain a little bit, that's how these rumblings start.
Forget about betting. But you know, this person said they
were Broncos camp and they heard it from a scout,
and then they tell one of their buddies who's covering
the NFL, and then they start telling other people. A
lot of times, these guys haven't even seen the Broncos practice.
They probably haven't watched their tape. They haven't. Maybe they've
(30:49):
seen a couple of clips on Twitter, but that starts
getting shared as sort of candy throughout the media ecosystem,
and all of sume sudden, the Broncos are one of
those teams that everybody is talking about as being a
Super Bowl contender. I just saw it the other day.
I saw, like, you know, Mike Florio interview on Rich
(31:13):
Eyesen come across my feed and Florio was talking about
are the Broncos one of those teams that can be
a Super Bowl contender? If it wasn't Florida, I apologize
it was somebody and like, you see that, and you know,
that's how these conversations start, and it's why these numbers
start moving. And look, maybe the best way to help
(31:36):
a young quarterback like bo Nicks is the same thing
we just said about. The Chargers run the ball, play
great defense, and the Broncos. The Chargers had a really
good defense. The Broncos had the best defense. They had
the most active defense. They had Patrick certain who was
Defensive Player of the Year, first in sacks, first and
(31:57):
expected points added. Like, they've added Hufanga, the safety from
the Niners. They added dra Greenlaw the linebacker. They used
their first pick on a cornerback, the kid from Texas,
John day Barn. So they're focused on defense and making
(32:18):
sure that defense doesn't regress at all. So I can
see why people are getting excited about him. But yeah,
the numbers have moved.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Yeah, and Zach Allen, another guy on their D line,
might be the next sir down. Like, this guy is
incredibly talented and he's just a workhorse. So you know,
This is like you're asking for the Chiefs offensive line.
The Chiefs still have the best center all of football.
They built around that. They're going to be all right.
The Chiefs always forgot the offensive line Denver. They didn't
(32:48):
really have that grace where they they had a great
offensive line last year for rejecting them. Have another great
offensive line this year, and that to me is gonna
be the key to them. Where you know, bo Nick's
like they talk about him, take on that Josh Allen step.
That's what their hope is, right. They're hoping he becomes
Josh Allen type, a guy who can move throwing the
run like that, strong and run through hits. That's a
lot of weight to put on this kid's shoulder. So yeah,
(33:10):
that that offensive line needs a hold up from last
year to what they are this year. And if bon
Neicks takes that next step, it's all there. I get
why they're being hyped up right now because I saw
weeks like months ago. You know, when I looked at
this team, it was like, okay, Ken, they keep building
on what they build all flash and it all comes
down to the quarterback position and the unknown with bone Knicks,
And like I said, it's I just can't believe we
(33:32):
werely gonna be sitting here a year from now being like, yeah,
he did it. Bon Knicks went to the FC Championship game,
like he beat lamar Ma Homes or Josh allenl Ray
there like it's just it happens. That's why I love
football so much. These these quarterbacks, you see it coming,
but it's hard to believe it beforehand. And we've seen
the flash of bone next year. They they overachieved so
much last year. It's how much are they gonna regressor?
(33:54):
How much are they going to improve? That's the hardestport
trying to measure this team right now because there are
a lot of red flash about them are regressing, but
there's so much good and all starts with their head coach,
and it's like Sean Payton Hall of Fame or offensive genius.
He'll make it work somehow. So that's why I have
faith in this team. I know it's gonna be tough
for people out there, but nine and a half to me,
that's good value on the team. I have at ten
(34:15):
and a half wins, So you know that's that's a
really nice bet for me right now.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
Harball and Peyton like they're doing the same thing, right. Yeah,
they've got great defenses. They're trying to figure out ways
to make the game a little bit easier for their quarterback.
They're going to go about it in different ways, right,
Payton's going to be more creative. He's going to think
about more of the short passing game. He's going to
try to take advantage of what Bonix is really good at.
(34:39):
Harbaugh is just going to try to run the ball
and not put it all on Herbert's shoulders. Let's not
discount the other coach in this division. There are three
Super Bowl winning coaches in this division. Jim Harbaugh is
the only one who is not a super per Bowl
(35:00):
winning coach. Pete Carroll is the new coach of the
Las Vegas Raiders. Fifteen to one to win the division,
fifty to one to win the conference, one hundred to
one to win the Super Bowl. Six and a half
is the win total. I'm curious. I will tell you
(35:24):
right now when I made my list of favorite division bets.
I'm not going to tell you where the Raiders over
win total was, but it's on the list. Let me
give you before I ask your opinion. Let me give
(35:44):
you a stat. I looked this up and I was stunned.
In his career with the Patriots, the Seahawks, and the
New York Jets, how many times, Simon has Pete Carroll
had fewer than seven wins? And remember, when you take
on a new team, whether it's the Jets, the Patriots
or the Seahawks, you're generally taking over a shitty team.
(36:07):
You're in a bad situation. So three times he's taken
over a new team, how many times in his career
any season has he won fewer than seven games?
Speaker 2 (36:17):
I mean that Jets and Patriot as a little before
my time. I know, obviously he coached there, and I
know that the Beast Quake was a seven and nine seasons,
so he gets it feels get someone on a lot.
So I don't know, probably less than three times once
once there.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
You go his first season as a head coach with
the New York Jets nineteen ninety four, and by the way,
before your time, of course, not before my time. When
I was a young reporter for Sports Illustrated, I had
to go interview Pete Carroll at Foxborough when he was
coaching the Patriots. And you know, he's so hippy dippy
(36:57):
kind of thing, even though he's super intense and competitive. Uh,
We're sitting there and I'm sitting with him, and you know,
there's a very famous author named Dan Millman who has
written these books that are sort of spiritual in nature
and about improvement and finding your zen. He just wanted
(37:21):
to talk to me about Dan Milman. He's like, you
know Dan Milman. I'm like, I don't know him. He goes,
let me tell you about Dan Milman. And that's when
we end up talking about the entire time I interviewed him.
Simon one season with less than seven wins in nineteen
ninety four, thirty one years ago, you were four years old.
Speaker 2 (37:45):
I didn't exist.
Speaker 1 (37:48):
I mean, you didn't exist thirty nine years ago. Thirty
one years ago, oh oh thirty one.
Speaker 2 (37:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
Hey, By the way, I got a Frindy story today.
I'm not going to tell the whole story because I
want to save it for when we talk about the
NFC East. Because I hung out with some guys here
in West Herford the other night who are massive Eagles fans,
and they were they listened to the show, and Uh,
(38:18):
we're standing in the kitchen hanging out for a minute,
and one of the one of the guys says to me, Yeah,
I love I love the way you guys broke down
the the Eagles and the Chiefs Super Bowl. That younger
guy on your show, I'm like, younger guy. That's that's
how we're framing this whole thing, is the younger guy.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
He's just staying in fact, Chad, when I look at
this Raiders team, you looked like I was a crazy person.
I said, I they were my seventh team in the playoffs,
And I got where you're coming from, because it's hard
to hear Raiders playoffs in any sense.
Speaker 1 (38:54):
Totally with you, by the way.
Speaker 2 (38:56):
Right right right now, Like now that you've like looked
into a little bit more, you see where I'm coming from.
Where it's like, can they thread that needle? And that's
gonna be the hardest part is, like we just talk
about Chargers in Denver are so talented, all four of
these teams around making a playoffs, someone's gotta be the
odd man out. And that's why I'm going That's why
I went with the Chargers, And it really is just
about value and that's at the end of the day,
(39:17):
that's where we're trying to bet here, and we've talked
about all the time there's always that team that goes
from worse to first or to a playoff team, and
last year we had it with Washington, and you could
say we had it with Denver hell In this division,
like you know, these teams are just a very low
view by the public and not on people's radar. I
feel like the Raiders is gonna start popping on people's
(39:38):
radar here in the next couple of weeks. I feel
That's why I wanted to get ahead of it weeks
ago and I gave them out as a playoff team
because they're a team that people kind of forget that
it's just a whole different regime there and that, yes,
their secondary, you could argue, is the worst in football.
I cannot fight you on that because I've I've dove
into it too, and they're they're they're They're Raiders. Defen
(40:00):
fense could have major issues, but when you break down
this offense with Genty, with the fact that you know
they're not the offense line is not terrible. That obviously
needs a little bit of improvement, but you know, between
Gentee and Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that. I
love that they have an offensive guy that's gonna knows
how to get the best players of the ball. So,
Gina Smith, you know, I told you I was saving
(40:22):
this for the season long. He's a different, totally different
player in dome games. He's way above five hundred is
against the spread. It's like about you know, seven hit
rate and against the spread in indoor dome games. So
it's like type of scenario where he's always outperformed with
book makers are per projection of him indoor games in
(40:44):
the general public. So I already love that coming in
where it's like, Okay, he spent his whole career in
outdoor stadiums Now he's inside in a dome game. And
you know, sure he could get some tough weather games.
I know the end of the season, you know they
are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's
in door actually, But there's just a bunch of things
(41:06):
align up for them that they're always gonna be in
these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense. They're
gonna running or so fifteen to one division odds, jad
I bet it. This opened at seventeen to one it's
been bet down at fifteen to one. It's it's too
too big to me, this is a team that could
shock the world just because of all the veteran presence
they have. And you just talk about Pete Carroll like that,
(41:26):
to me is such a game changer that this guy
the players of the play form. He wills these guys
get the best out of them, and I just can't
see them slipping below that. So yeah, another favorite win
total for me, division wise, six and a half. I
love even morn Now you hit me at that stat
about Pete Carroll like that just lines up for my
projection of this team being a whole new identity and
it all really starts with Gino. But obviously I don't
(41:49):
think people get this kid genty. He could be an
absolute game wrecker, Like if he is what we are
projecting him to be, which is a Saquan light like
that type of built right, He's all thighs like people
realize Saikwan Barkley is, like he plays at two forty
two forty of just muscle, like I'm severely overweight. If
you've met me, I'm probably forty pounds. Heavery that I
(42:10):
could imagine being two forty of muscle, you know, running
around like he is. And that's what genty is. Genty
is a little guy who's thick. He's like two thirty
two twenty five playing weight and it's all in his thighs.
I just love the way he's built the NFL. And
this is the exact type of Snaire we want, right,
It's the execul Elliott when he first came in. You
want those first four years with these high rookie draft
(42:31):
picks of just excellence. Right. He's still young enough to
run on that weight. So yeah, long winded answer, Chad.
I think you can tell it hyped up on him
about this Raiders team, but it just feels like it's
all lined up for them to be the sleeper of
the AFC this season. And uh, six and a half
just disrespectful line to this team. But I think again,
because it's the third division, the general public is just
not buying it on them. But you you knocked out
(42:53):
of the park. I got him an eight and a
half wins, So this is my biggest rescreptancy so far.
We've done them the show two wins lower than they
should be. I love this number for this range team.
Speaker 1 (43:01):
It's it's the division, but it's also public perception. This
is a public perception game, right And I see looking
at the schedule, three better than fifty to fifty games, Titans, Giants,
Browns all at home. I see two fifty to fifty games,
both at home, Jags and Bears. I think Week five
(43:22):
at the Colts is a wild card at this point,
we will see, but it could be by the time
they're playing the Colts, they are a significantly better team
than the Colts are. That could be six wins right there.
They are three point dogs in Week one at New England.
That'll be a fascinating game. Right, So seven games right
(43:44):
there where you can feel very good to fifty to
fifty better than even maybe chance they could win. And
then just becomes a question can Pete Carroll Congino Smith?
Can they be savvy enough to pull off an upset
as they often are able to do in the division
(44:07):
at home against the Broncos, against the Chargers, against the Chiefs.
So if we were to recap here, my favorite division
bet from this division Raiders over six and a half.
Full stop, that's it.
Speaker 2 (44:23):
Raids over six and a half.
Speaker 1 (44:27):
I don't hate it, which do you like, what's yours?
Speaker 2 (44:32):
Then?
Speaker 1 (44:32):
Is it Raiders over six and a half? Is it Raiders?
Speaker 2 (44:35):
I'm gonna go with my biggest investment, my personal money
is no doubt the Chiefs divisional odds, like I've just
been hitting that one pretty heavy, but when total wise, yeah,
it's not close. Raiders for this division is my biggest one.
Second is Denver obviously really love that number as well.
And then the Chiefs. I just every year I'm betting it.
(44:58):
The only fear is they're going to have a ten
and seven year, Like I don't know if it's gonna
be this year or they'll you know, eleven and six. Eventually,
their their division is going to catch them in these
games because last year was just we talked about it,
which is so fluky. In the one score games, you know,
everything went right, even like going back to that Bengals game,
you know Joe Burrow had the ball with the lead
with about three minutes to go on a third and
(45:19):
seven and didn't read a hot read and took a sack.
Where it's like that game was lined up perfectly in
the win and I think it was fourth and twenty
they get a pass interference to get them in a
field goal range for the Chiefs to win. Like if
you go back to the last year, they had so
many these weird freaking games they stole, so they're just
I did bet their win total. But of those three,
it's the third one. It's I like Raiders first Denver,
(45:40):
then the Chiefs, and then once again nothing for me
on the Chargers team. I assume the same for you.
Speaker 1 (45:45):
Chad Yep, zero couldn't do it. My list was Raiders
over six and a half Chiefs Division but parleying it,
and then Broncos Division. Even though it's much lower than
it's been, it's still better to me than what you're
getting with the Chargers. But Raiders six and a half
(46:06):
was my favorite.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
All right, just sprinkle a little in fifteen to one
Raiders just for the show. They're a little.
Speaker 1 (46:14):
Donny Scosh and Raiders.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
It could be fun. End this season.
Speaker 1 (46:17):
I love it. I'm in. I'm all in. Simon, listen,
the favorites will return. Let me recap, let me recap.
We just did it though. Raiders over six and a
half Chiefs divisional odds for Simon, Broncos divisional odds for
both of us. Although it's less value Raiders fifteen to
one to win the conference. All right, The Favorites will
(46:40):
return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Over
YouTube page. When we talk n f C West, that's
a burn burner of a of a division. We got
a lot of controversy there. I know me and Simon
are going to be on different sides of two of
the top teams. Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
you get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars,
say whatever you want feedback as a gift until next time,
(47:02):
Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
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